Tag: Greta Gerwig

99th Academy Awards Predictions: May 6th Edition

My second helping of ranked Oscar predictions for next year’s 99th ceremony can be called the pre-Cannes estimates. That festival in the French Riviera kicks off May 12th and runs through May 23rd. It will be our first look at several potential contenders: Ryusuke Hamaguchi’s All of a Sudden, Pawel Pawlikowski’s Fatherland, Cristian Mungiu’s Fjord, Na Hong-jin’s Hope, James Gray’s Paper Tiger, and The Man I Love from Ira Sachs to name a few. Keep an eye on the blog for my individual posts exploring the viability of the screening pictures.

The Academy made some news of its own by announcing rule changes. The most significant is that actors can be nominated twice in the same category. There’s been recent examples of when this could have resulted in a performer getting two nods. I would say most recently that Sebastian Stan could have benefited. He was nominated in lead Actor for The Apprentice and a double shot was possible via A Different Man. Going back a ways, Kate Winslet won Best Actress in 2008 for The Reader and might have seen her name pop again for Revolutionary Road. In 2006, Kate’s Titanic mate Leonardo DiCaprio was in contention for Blood Diamond. He could have easily landed another shot via The Departed.

In International Feature Film, the criteria has always been that a submitting nation can choose just one entrant for consideration. While that rule holds, the Academy has added another path to get in. If a picture wins a qualifying international festival (such as Cannes, Berlin, Toronto, Sundance, Venice), it is now a contender. This would have helped Anatomy of a Fall in 2023 since France did not choose it as their representative picture, but it emerged victorious for the Palme d’Or at Cannes.

Since my last update in mid-April, Michael opened to gigantic box office and mediocre reviews. While the audience score on Rotten Tomatoes is high, critical griping could cripple its viability at the Oscars. However, I wouldn’t completely rule out the acclaimed work of Jaafar Jackson and Colman Domingo. Best Picture? Probably a bridge too far despite the gaudy numbers.

The Devil Wears Prada 2 also hit multiplexes. While Meryl Streep was a Best Actress nominee 20 years ago for the original, a second at-bat seems like a reach. The sequel could materialize, however, in Costume Design and/or Original Song where Lady Gaga has a track. Those categories won’t be forecasted until a few weeks down the line.

We also learned that Narnia: The Magician’s Nephew from Greta Gerwig will not be out (on Netflix) until 2027. I had it on the outside looking in at #11. It drops from contention this time around.

You can read all the speculation below and my next update will arrive as Cannes concludes!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)

3. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Digger (PR: 5) (E)

5. Fjord (PR: 6) (E)

6. No One Cares (PR: 6) (E)

7. Fatherland (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Dune: Part Three (PR: 10) (+2)

9. The Social Reckoning (PR: 9) (E)

10. All of a Sudden (PR: 7) (-3)

Other Possibilities:

11. Hope (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Cry to Heaven (PR: 16) (+4)

13. A Place in Hell (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Paper Tiger (PR: 21) (+7)

15. Werwulf (PR: 18) (+3)

16. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 23) (+7)

17. Josephine (PR: 17) (E)

18. Saturn Return (PR: 22) (+4)

19. The Entertainment System is Down (PR: 14) (-5)

20. Jack of Spades (PR: 24) (+4)

21. Being Heumann (PR: 15) (-6)

22. A Long Winter (PR: 13) (-9)

23. Behemoth! (PR: 25) (+2)

24. Michael (PR: 20) (-4)

25. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 19) (-6)

Dropped Out:

Narnia: The Magician’s Nephew

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Alejandro Gonzalez Iñárritu, Digger (PR: 2) (E)

3. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Cristian Mingiu, Fjord (PR: 3) (+1)

5. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Pawel Pawlikowski, Fatherland (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Jesse Eisenberg, No One Cares (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Na Hong-jin, Hope (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Tom Ford, Cry to Heaven (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Aaron Sorkin, The Social Reckoning (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Robert Eggers, Werwulf (PR: 14) (+1)

14. James Gray, Paper Tiger (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Greg Kwedar, Saturn Return (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Greta Gerwig, Narnia: The Magician’s Nephew

Ruben Östlund, The Entertainment System is Down

David Fincher, The Adventures of Cliff Booth

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Renate Reinsve, Fjord (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sandra Hüller, Fatherland (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Julianne Moore, No One Cares (PR: 3) (E)

4. Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Michelle Williams, A Place in Hell (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden (PR: 6) (E)

7. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Sandra Hüller, Rose (PR: 11) (+3)

9. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Sophie Okonedo, Clarissa (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Mason Reeves, Josephine (PR: 8) (-3)

12. Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 14) (+2)

13. Rachel Brosnahan, Saturn Return (PR: 13) (E)

14. Penélope Cruz, Bunker (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Lily Gladstone, The Memory Police (PR: 12) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Amy Adams, At the Sea

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Tom Cruise, Digger (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sebastian Stan, Fjord (PR: 4) (+1)

4. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Hanns Zischler, Fatherland (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Matt Damon, The Odyssey (PR: 6) (E)

7. Dominic Sessa, Tony (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Jaafar Jackson, Michael (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Nicholas Hoult, Cry to Heaven (PR: 9) (E)

10. John Turturro, The Only Living Pickpocket in New York (PR: 15) (+5)

11. Jeremy Allen White, The Social Reckoning (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Adam Driver, Paper Tiger (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Josh O’Connor, Jack of Spades (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Rami Malek, The Man I Love (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Three (PR: 11) (-4)

Dropped Out:

Robert Aramayo, I Swear

Pedro Pascal, Behemoth!

Brad Pitt, The Adventures of Cliff Booth

Charles Melton, Saturn Return

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mariana di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Sandra Hüller, Digger (PR: 6) (+4)

3. Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (-2)

4. Halle Bailey, No One Cares (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Daisy Edgar-Jones, A Place in Hell (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Tao Okamato, All of a Sudden (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 8) (E)

9. Scarlett Johannson, Paper Tiger (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Lesley Manville, Jack of Spades (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Esmé Creed-Miles, Sense and Sensibility (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Kirsten Dunst, The Entertainment System is Down (PR: 12) (E)

13. Caitriona Balfe, A Long Winter (PR: 9) (-4)

14. Penélope Cruz, The Invite (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Gemma Chan, Josephine (PR: 13) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Wunmi Mosaku, The Social Reckoning

Frances McDormand, Jack of Spades

Elizabeth Debicki, The Adventures of Cliff Booth

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Paul Giamatti, No One Cares (PR: 1) (E)

2. John Goodman, Digger (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Robert Pattinson, The Odyssey (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning (PR: 6) (-1)

7. Colman Domingo, Michael (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Andrew Scott, A Place in Hell (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Tom Holland, The Odyssey (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Jesse Plemons, Digger (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Channing Tatum, Josephine (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Mark Ruffalo, Being Heumann (PR: 9) (-3)

13. David Oyelowo, Clarissa (PR: 13) (E)

14. Antonio Banderas, Tony (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Cry to Heaven (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Daniel Brühl, The Entertainment System is Down

Riz Ahmed, Digger

    99th Academy Awards Predictions: April 19th Edition

    Barely a month beyond the 98th edition of the Academy Awards, we have arrived at my first ranked predictions for the 99th ceremony. We begin with six major categories – Best Picture, Director, and the four acting derbies.

    I gave you my first ranked glimpses for the previous telecast around the same time last year in these same races. How did that impossibly early forecast turn out? I correctly called four of the eventual ten BP nominees with Hamnet, Marty Supreme, Sentimental Value, and Sinners. Winner One Battle After Another as well as Bugonia, F1, and Frankenstein were listed in Other Possibilities. So 80% of the BP contenders were identified with The Secret Agent and Train Dreams not being mentioned in April 2025.

    In Best Director, three of the five filmmakers were predicted: Ryan Coogler (Sinners), Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme), and Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value). Statue recipient Paul Thomas Anderson from One Battle and Chloé Zhao (Hamnet) were in Other Possibilities.

    As for Best Actress, Jessie Buckley (Hamnet) swept the season and was in my predicted quintet. So was Sentimental Value‘s Renate Reinsve while Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You) and Emma Stone (Bugonia) were in Other Possibilities. Only Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue) wasn’t listed. In Best Actor, Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme) was in my quintet. Three others – winner Michael B. Jordan (Sinners), Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another), and Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon) were Other Possibilities with Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent) as the sole thespian not identified.

    My projected Supporting Actress five rightly named Teyana Taylor (One Battle) with Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value) as a possibility. Fanning’s costar Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Wumni Mosaku (Sinners), and the victorious Amy Madigan (Weapons) were not found among my possibilities. In Supporting Actor, Stellan Skarsgård from Value was in my five with winner Sean Penn (One Battle) and Delroy Lindo (Sinners) as possibilities. Battle‘s Benicio del Toro and Frankenstein‘s Jacob Elordi were not to be found yet.

    Let’s get some caveats out of the way. Some of the performers listed in lead will end up in supporting and vice versa. As an example, I figured Paul Mescal (Hamnet) would go lead for that film last year, but he was slotted in supporting. He ended up not being nominated but likely came close. For instance in this year’s listings, I don’t know if Sam Rockwell will be lead or supporting for Wild Horse Nine but my hunch says the latter at press time. The distributor will eventually clear that up.

    We will see pictures push to 2027. When I did my initial projections a year ago for 2025, Michael and The Rivals of Amziah King were thought to be releases for that calendar frame. Both are being put out in ’26. I have Michael still as a potential nominee in some competitions. Not so at this time for Rivals.

    And now the most important forewarning. Some movies you find below will turn out to be non-contenders. My inaugural look at the 98th Oscars listed Luca Guadagnino’s After the Hunt at #1 in Best Picture, Director, Actress (Julia Roberts), #4 in Supporting Actress (Ayo Edebiri), and #2 in Supporting Actor (Andrew Garfield). After its Venice festival premiere, the mixed to negative reaction drastically changed its narrative. It ended up with zero nominations. My April 2025 #1’s in the supporting fields – Ariana Grande (Wicked: For Good) and Adam Sandler (Jay Kelly) – did not make final cut either.

    So take this speculation as what it is – speculative. The picture and Best Picture will become clearer in time. That said, a reminder that 80% of the BP nominees were mentioned a year ago in addition to 100% of the directors and 80% of the lead acting hopefuls could be found in the initial post. On the flip side, nearly all of my acting picks for a nomination are coming from projected BP nominees and the percentage probably won’t be quite that high.

    When Sinners came out last year, it was a box office juggernaut with widespread critical acclaim. Yet I wondered whether the spring release could mean it would fall by the wayside months down the line. That’s why I named it in Other Possibilities for Picture, Director, Actor, and Supporting Actor. What happened months down the line? A record-setting 16 nominations with Jordan winning Actor. I won’t make the same mistake with Project Hail Mary. It has been out for weeks and already looks like a strong contender in Picture, Director, Actor, and possibly Supporting Actress. Another note – it’s not often (or maybe ever) you see a performer mentioned four times. That’s the case at the moment with the busy Sandra Hüller who is a legit threat twice in lead Actress and supporting.

    You can expect these posts to hit the blog every couple of weeks until it becomes weekly. This should occur when festival season goes into overdrive in last summer/early fall.

    BEST PICTURE

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. The Odyssey

    2. Project Hail Mary

    3. Wild Horse Nine

    4. Digger

    5. Fjord

    6. No One Cares

    7. All of a Sudden

    8. Fatherland

    9. The Social Reckoning

    10. Dune: Part Three

    Other Possibilities:

    11. Narnia: The Magican’s Nephew

    12. A Place in Hell

    13. A Long Winter

    14. The Entertainment System is Down

    15. Being Heumann

    16. Cry to Heaven

    17. Josephine

    18. Werwulf

    19. The Adventures of Cliff Booth

    20. Michael

    21. Paper Tiger

    22. Saturn Return

    23. Sense and Sensibility

    24. Jack of Spades

    25. Behemoth!

    BEST DIRECTOR

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey

    2. Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Digger

    3. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary

    4. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine

    5. Cristian Mingiu, Fjord

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden

    7. Pawel Pawlikowski, Fatherland

    8. Jesse Eisenberg, No One Cares

    9. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three

    10. Greta Gerwig, Narnia: The Magician’s Nephew

    11. Ruben Östlund, The Entertainment System is Down

    12. Tom Ford, Cry to Heaven

    13. Aaron Sorkin, The Social Reckoning

    14. Robert Eggers, Werwulf

    15. David Fincher, The Adventures of Cliff Booth

    BEST ACTRESS

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Renate Reinsve, Fjord

    2. Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning

    3. Julianne Moore, No One Cares

    4. Sandra Hüller, Fatherland

    5. Michelle Williams, A Place in Hell

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden

    7. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann

    8. Mason Reeves, Josephine

    9. Sophie Okenedo, Clarissa

    10. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie

    11. Sandra Hüller, Rose

    12. Lily Gladstone, The Memory Police

    13. Rachel Brosnahan, Saturn Return

    14. Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility

    15. Amy Adams, At the Sea

    BEST ACTOR

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Tom Cruise, Digger

    2. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary

    3. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine

    4. Sebastian Stan, Fjord

    5. Hanns Zischler, Fatherland

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Matt Damon, The Odyssey

    7. Robert Aramayo, I Swear

    8. Dominic Sessa, Tony

    9. Nicholas Hoult, Cry to Heaven

    10. Jafaar Jackson, Michael

    11. Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Three

    12. Pedro Pascal, Behemoth!

    13. Brad Pitt, The Adventures of Cliff Booth

    14. Charles Melton, Saturn Return

    15. John Turturro, The Only Pickpocket Living in New York

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine

    2. Mariana Di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine

    3. Halle Bailey, No One Cares

    4. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey

    5. Tao Okamoto, All of a Sudden

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Sandra Hüller, Digger

    7. Daisy Edgar-Jones, A Place in Hell

    8.. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary

    9. Caitriona Balfe, A Long Winter

    10. Scarlett Johansson, Paper Tiger

    11. Wunmi Mosaku, The Social Reckoning

    12. Kirsten Dunst, The Entertainment System is Down

    13. Gemma Chan, Josephine

    14. Frances McDormand, Jack of Spades

    15. Elizabeth Debicki, The Adventures of Cliff Booth

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Paul Giamatti, No One Cares

    2. John Goodman, Digger

    3. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine

    4. Colman Domingo, Michael

    5. Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine

    7. Andrew Scott, A Place in Hell

    8. Tom Holland, The Odyssey

    9. Mark Ruffalo, Being Heumann

    10. D’Pharaoh Woon-A-Tai, A Long Winter

    11. Jesse Plemons, Digger

    12. Channing Tatum, Josephine

    13. David Oyelowo, Clarissa

    14. Daniel Brühl, The Entertainment System is Down

    15. Riz Ahmed, Digger

    99th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Director

    And we are off to the races with my first Oscar predictions for the 99th Academy Awards.

    We are not quite a month removed from the 98th ceremony so let us begin some ridiculously early speculation! These are my inaugural glimpses at the four acting derbies, Director, and Picture. I already posted my take in the acting fields and they can be found here:

    99th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Actress
    99th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Actor
    99th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Supporting Actress
    99th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Supporting Actor

    That brings us to Best Director. When I did my first forecast in this race for the 98th ceremony, my projections yielded two of the eventual nominees: Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme) and Chloé Zhao (Hamnet). Eventual winner Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another) and Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value) were named in Other Possibilities. I had yet to mention Ryan Coogler (Sinners).

    Let’s get some caveats out of the way… it’s early. Some movies listed are likely to be pushed back or simply not turn out to be awards contenders. Others will rise up through the festival system where the lineup for Cannes was revealed today.

    This premiere post has Christopher Nolan back in the lineup three years after Oppenheimer dominated the 96th Academy Awards. His competitors include newcomers and former nominees like Martin McDonagh and Ryusuke Hamaguchi.

    Here’s the first snapshot with Best Picture up next!

    TODD’S FIRST OSCAR PREDICTIONS FOR DIRECTOR AT THE 99TH ACADEMY AWARDS

    Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden

    Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary

    Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine

    Cristian Mungiu, Fjord

    Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey

    Other Possibilities:

    Danny Boyle, Ink

    Beth de Araújo, Josephine

    Robert Eggers, Werwulf

    Jesse Eisenberg, No One Cares

    David Fincher, The Adventures of Cliff Booth

    Tom Ford, Cry to Heaven

    Greta Gerwig, Narnia: The Magician’s Nephew

    Alejandro Gonzalez Iñárritu, Digger

    Pawel Pawlikowski, Fatherland

    Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three

    Best Picture 2023: The Final Five

    As awards followers are aware, 2009 saw the Academy expand the Best Picture category from five movies to ten. That lasted two years and in 2011, it switched from anywhere from 5-10 with 8 or 9 as the magic number for several years. In 2021, the number reverted back to a set 10.

    What if that hadn’t happened? What if the BP derby had stayed a quintet? What pictures would have made the cut?

    For the 96th Academy Awards, we know Christopher Nolan’s Oppenheimer would have been one of them. It dominated the show by winning Best Picture, Director, Actor (Cillian Murphy), Supporting Actor (Robert Downey Jr.), Cinematography, Film Editing, and Original Score.

    Picking the other 4 of 9 for the final five is less obvious. And I really mean it this time because, with one exception, selecting the others was tough. Here’s my best speculation.

    American Fiction

    Cord Jefferson’s dramedy performed better than anticipated with five nominations including a win in Adapted Screenplay over heavy hitters Barbie, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, and The Zone of Interest. Other nods were Jeffrey Wright in Actor, Sterling K. Brown for supporting, and Original Score.

    Does It Make the Final Five?

    Yes, but I went back and forth on this one and came very close to saying no. Gods and Monsters from 1998 is the last Adapted Screenplay winner to not be nominated for BP so that’s what gives this a slight edge.

    Anatomy of a Fall

    The French legal drama was inexplicably not selected for International Feature Film, but nabbed a quintet of nods that included Director (Justine Triet), Actress (Sandra Hüller), Film Editing, and a victory in Original Screenplay (over The Holdovers and Past Lives).

    Does It Make the Final Five?

    No, but I went back and forth on this one and came very close to saying yes. Like with Fiction, there’s a screenplay component at play. Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind from 2004 was the previous Original Screenplay winner to not be nominated for BP. In this case, the case for some other pics was just a tad stronger.

    Barbie

    Greta Gerwig’s smash hit had six other nods in Supporting Actor (Ryan Gosling), Adapted Screenplay, Costume Design, 2 Original Songs, and Production Design. The sole victory was for Billie Eilish’s ballad “What Was I Made For?”.

    Does It Make the Final Five?

    I went back and forth on this one… you get the idea. I’m going with no with its glaring omission for Gerwig’s direction and Margot Robbie’s snub to a lesser degree. That said, it is certainly feasible that AMPAS could’ve made room had this been a quintet.

    The Holdovers

    Alexander Payne’s dramedy was a winner in Supporting Actress for Da’Vine Joy Randolph with Paul Giamatti nominated in Actor and nods for Film Editing and Original Screenplay.

    Does It Make the Final Five?

    No. If Giamatti had taken lead actor or the screenplay been victorious, this would be a tougher choice. I think it’d be on the outside looking in.

    Killers of the Flower Moon

    Martin Scorsese’s historial epic had ten overall nominations behind Oppenheimer and Poor Things – directing, Actress (Lily Gladstone), Supporting Actor (Robert De Niro), Cinematography, Costume Design, Film Editing, Original Score, Original Song, and Production Design. It went 0 for 10 on the night.

    Does It Make the Final Five?

    Yes, but I don’t think it’s automatic. No nods for the adapted screenplay or Leonardo DiCaprio in Actor make me questions its inclusion. So do the zero trophies. Yet Scorsese’s clout causes me to grant it a spot.

    Maestro

    Bradley Cooper’s biopic of Leonard Bernstein is a seven-time nominee for Actor (Cooper), Actress (Carey Mulligan), Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Makeup and Hairstyling, and Sound. It did not pick up any of the hardware.

    Does It Make the Final Five?

    No, but it did perform quite well as far as nods. Cooper’s exclusion from Best Director was my deciding factor.

    Past Lives

    Celine Song’s romance was the least nominated of the BP contestants with Original Screenplay as its only other nom.

    Does It Make the Final Five?

    No and this was the easiest of the five to decide considering the amount of nominations.

    Poor Things

    The multi-genre experience from Yorgos Lanthimos was second only to Oppenheimer in terms of mentions with 11 including wins for Emma Stone in Actress, Costume Design, Makeup and Hairstyling, and Production Design. Other nods: director, Supporting Actor (Mark Ruffalo), Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Film Editing, and Original Score.

    Does It Make the Final Five?

    Yes and this was the easiest of the nine to leave in due to its volume of noms and victories.

    The Zone of Interest

    The wartime drama from Jonathan Glazer, with Anatomy of a Fall out of competition, easily took International Feature Film while also grabbing a Sound win and noms for direction and Adapted Screenplay.

    Does It Make the Final Five?

    I don’t think it is automatic, but yes. I nudged it just past Fall considering the IFF gold.

    And that means my final 2023 five would be:

    American Fiction

    Killers of the Flower Moon

    Oppenheimer

    Poor Things

    The Zone of Interest

    I plan to post my selection for 2024 in the near future!

    77th Directors Guild of America Awards Nomination Predictions

    This Wednesday (01/08), the Directors Guild of America reveals their five nominees for behind the camera achievement in 2024. The DGA is normally a reliable barometer to project 4 of the 5 eventual Oscar nominees. Over the past decade, the match has been that margin in eight of the years. For two of the years, the match was 3 for 5. That includes last year when Greta Gerwig (Barbie) and Alexander Payne (The Holdovers) made the DGA cut but Jonathan Glazer (The Zone of Interest) and Justine Triet (Anatomy of a Fall) received Academy attention.

    I believe there are two shoo-in nominees for the 77th ceremony in Brady Corbet for The Brutalist and Sean Baker for Anora. Furthermore, I see Edward Berger (Conclave) as really close to being an automatic pick.

    Then it gets interesting. The DGA often prioritizes American pictures over foreign entries or foreign directors. We certainly saw that last year with Gerwig/Payne over Glazer/Triet. In 2021, Denis Villeneuve was in the DGA quintet for Dune while Ryusuke Hamaguchi (Drive My Car) replaced him in the Academy five. In 2022, it was Ruben Östlund (Triangle of Sadness) vying for Oscar instead of DGA selection Joseph Kosinski for Top Gun: Maverick.

    That’s why I wouldn’t pencil in Mohammad Rasoulof (The Seed of the Sacred Fig) or Payal Kapadia (All We Imagine as Light) here. And that’s why being skeptical about Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez) or Coralie Fargeat (The Substance) is warranted. Both could get in and both movies are over performing in various precursors. Pérez, it could be argued, is doing so by an even more impressive margin. That’s why I’m leaving Audiard in while Fargeat is barely on the outside looking in.

    So who gets the fifth slot? I wouldn’t count out RaMell Ross for Nickel Boys or even James Mangold for A Complete Unknown or Jon M. Chu for Wicked (though I’m finding that one increasingly unlikely). I’m reminded that DGA also selects some filmmakers for blockbuster fare the Academy ignores. Gerwig for Barbie and Kosinski for Top Gun. Ridley Scott for The Martian.

    And… Denis Villeneuve for Dune. I think history could repeat itself with Villeneuve in contention for the sequel and that’s the direction I’m going for DGA.

    DGA Predicted Nominees

    Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez

    Sean Baker, Anora

    Edward Berger, Conclave

    Brady Corbet, The Brutalist

    Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two

    Runner-Up: Coralie Fargeat, The Substance

    97th Academy Awards Predictions: December 30th Edition

    These are last Oscar predictions in calendar year 2024 and I’ll likely do the final forecast on Tuesday, January 14th before the nominations are revealed on Friday, January 17th. It got me wondering how accurate my projections were for the 96th Academy Awards covering 2023 at this point in the calendar. Turns out… I did a post on December 29th of last year. The results? That’s what I’ll focus on in this write-up while giving you my predictions for the next broadcast.

    The quick version is that my December 29th, 2023 forecast yielded 79 of the eventual 105 nominees. That’s not far off from my eventual tally of 84 of 105 when the announcements were made in January 2024. This includes 10 for 10 (!) in Best Picture and 5 for 5 in Makeup & Hairstyling. I went 4 for 5 in 10 other competitions while getting 3 for 5 in eight other competitions. There wasn’t one category where I didn’t have the winner listed as a nominee… except for in Visual Effects (we’ll get to that at the bottom).

    Let’s get to it with some chatter about my performance in the previous year to use a potential context for what’s to come.

    Best Picture

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. The Brutalist (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

    2. Conclave (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Anora (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Wicked (PR: 5) (E)

    6. Dune: Part Two (PR: 6) (E)

    7. A Complete Unknown (PR: 9) (+2)

    8. The Substance (PR: 7) (-1)

    9. Nickel Boys (PR: 10) (+1)

    10. Sing Sing (PR: 8) (-2)

    Other Possibilities:

    11. A Real Pain (PR: 11) (E)

    12. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 13) (+1)

    13. September 5 (PR: 12) (-1)

    14. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 14) (E)

    15. Nosferatu (PR: 15) (E)

    2023 Performance on December 29th –

    10 for 10 on the Best Picture nominees and that includes listing eventual victor Oppenheimer at #1.

    Best Director

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Brady Corbet, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Coralie Fargeat, The Substance (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: 7) (+1)

    7. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Payal Kapadia, All We Imagine as Light (PR: 9) (E)

    10. James Mangold, A Complete Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Jon M. Chu, Wicked

    2023 Performance on December 29th –

    4 for 5 and I correctly had Christopher Nolan’s direction of Oppenheimer listed in 1st. Where I went wrong – I had Greta Gerwig (Barbie) in over Justine Triet (Anatomy of a Fall), who was listed in 8th position.

    Best Actress

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 1) (E)

    2.Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 4) (+2)

    3. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: 2) (-1)

    4. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 6) (+1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked (PR: 5) (-1)

    7. Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Kate Winslet, Lee (PR: 9) (+1)

    9. Nicole Kidman, Babygirl (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun

    2023 Performance on December 29th –

    4 for 5. Eventual winner Emma Stone (Poor Things) was listed in 2nd after Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon). I incorrectly had Greta Lee (Past Lives) nominated over Annette Bening (Nyad), who I had listed in ninth.

    Best Actor

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Adrien Brody, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain (PR: 8) (+1)

    8. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 9) (+1)

    9. Hugh Grant, Heretic (PR: 7) (-2)

    10. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 10) (E)

    2023 Performance on December 29th –

    4 for 5. I had the winner Cillian Murphy of Oppenheimer listed second after Bradley Cooper from Maestro. Where I went wrong – I had Leonardo DiCaprio (Killers of the Flower Moon) nominated over my #6 Colman Domingo (Rustin).

    Best Supporting Actress

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Ariana Grande, Wicked (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Felicity Jones, The Brutalist (PR: 4) (+1)

    4. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 7) (+1)

    7. Margaret Qualley, The Substance (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Elle Fanning, A Complete Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 10) (E)

    Dropped Out:

    Joan Chen, Dídi

    2023 Performance on December 29th –

    3 for 5. I correctly had Da’Vine Joy Randolph in The Holdovers listed in 1st. Where I went wrong – Julianne Moore (May December) and Rachel McAdams (Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret) in over Jodie Foster for Nyad (who I had in sixth) and America Ferrera in Barbie (who was 8th at that time).

    Best Supporting Actor

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Guy Pearce, The Brutalist (PR: 2) (+1)

    2. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 1) (-1)

    3. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 5) (+1)

    5. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown (PR: 4) (-1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Yura Borisov, Anora (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 8) (+1)

    8. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 7) (-1)

    9. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 9) (E)

    10. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside (PR: 10) (E)

    2023 Performance on December 29 –

    4 for 5. I correctly had Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer) listed in first. Where I went wrong – I had Charles Melton (May December) being nominated over #7 Sterling K. Brown in American Fiction.

    Best Original Screenplay

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)

    2. The Brutalist (PR: 2) (E)

    3. A Real Pain (PR: 3) (E)

    4. The Substance (PR: 4) (E)

    5. September 5 (PR: 6) (+1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 5) (-1)

    7. Hard Truths (PR: 7) (E)

    8. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Saturday Night (PR: 9) (E)

    10. A Different Man (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Challengers

    2023 Performance on December 29th –

    4 for 5. Winner The Holdovers was listed 2nd while I had Barbie ranked 1st. It would be moved into Adapted Screenplay shortly thereafter. Where I went wrong – listing Barbie instead of #7 Maestro.

    Best Adapted Screenplay

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Conclave (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Nickel Boys (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Sing Sing (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Dune: Part Two (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. The Room Next Door (PR: 7) (+1)

    7. A Complete Unknown (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. I’m Still Here (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Wicked (PR: 9) (E)

    10. Hit Man (PR: 10) (E)

    2023 Performance on December 29th –

    3 for 5. Per above, I had Barbie listed in Original instead of Adapted at that time. Winner American Fiction was slotted fourth. Where I went wrong – having Killers of the Flower Moon and All of Us Strangers instead of Barbie and #6 The Zone of Interest.

    Best International Feature Film

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

    2. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 2) (E)

    3. I’m Still Here (PR: 3) (E)

    4. The Girl with the Needle (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Vermiglio (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Kneecap (PR: 7) (+1)

    7. Universal Language (PR: 9) (+2)

    8. How to Make Millions Before Grandma Dies (PR: 10) (+2)

    9. Flow (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. Dahomey (PR: 6) (-4)

    2023 Performance on December 29th –

    4 for 5. The Zone of Interest was correctly listed in 1st. Where I went wrong – The Taste of Things was predicted over #9 lo capitano.

    Best Animated Feature Film

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. The Wild Robot (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Flow (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Inside Out 2 (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Memoir of a Snail (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Moana 2 (PR: 7) (+1)

    7. Piece by Piece (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. Chicken for Linda! (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Transformers One (PR: 9) (E)

    10. Spellbound (PR: 10) (E)

    2023 Performance on December 29th –

    4 for 5. Winner The Boy and the Heron was listed in 2nd. Where I went wrong – predicting The Peasants over #10 Robot Dreams.

    Best Documentary Feature

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. No Other Land (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Sugarcane (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Will & Harper (PR: 4) (+1)

    4. Daughters (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat (PR: 8) (+3)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Black Box Diaries (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Dahomey (PR: 5) (-1)

    8. Union (PR: 7) (-1)

    9. Porcelain War (PR: 9) (E)

    10. The Remarkable Life of Ibelin (PR: 10) (E)

    2023 Performance on December 29th –

    3 for 5. 20 Days in Mariupol was correctly listed 1st. Where I went wrong – Beyond Utopia and American Symphony were predicted over #9 Bobi Wine: The People’s President and unranked To Kill a Tiger.

    Best Cinematography

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Nickel Boys (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Maria (PR: 4) (E)

    5. The Girl with the Needle (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Conclave (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Nosferatu (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Emilia Pérez (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Wicked (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. A Complete Unknown (PR: 10) (E)

    Dropped Out:

    Anora

    2023 Performance on December 29th –

    4 for 5. Oppenheimer was correctly listed 1st. Where I went wrong – I had The Zone of Interest nominated over #10 El Conde.

    Best Costume Design

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Wicked (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (+1)

    4. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. Maria (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Conclave (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 10) (+3)

    8. The Brutalist (PR: 9) (+1)

    9. A Complete Unknown (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. Blitz (PR: 7) (-3)

    2023 Performance on December 29th –

    4 for 5. Winner Poor Things was listed in 2nd (behind Barbie). Where I went wrong – The Color Purple getting nominated over #7 Napoleon.

    Best Film Editing

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. The Brutalist (PR: 3) (+2)

    2. Conclave (PR: 1) (-1)

    3. Anora (PR: 2) (-1)

    4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 6) (+2)

    5. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (-1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Wicked (PR: 9) (+3)

    7. September 5 (PR: 5) (-2)

    8. Challengers (PR: 7) (-1)

    9. The Substance (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. Nickel Boys (PR: 10) (E)

    2023 Performance on December 29th –

    3 for 5. Oppenheimer was correctly listed 1st. Where I went wrong – I had Air and Barbie nominated over #6 The Holdovers and #8 Anatomy of a Fall.

    Best Makeup & Hairstyling

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. The Substance (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Wicked (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (E)

    4. A Different Man (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Nosferatu (PR: 6) (+1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 7) (+1)

    7. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 5) (-2)

    8. Waltzing with Brando (PR: 9) (+1)

    9. Maria (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. The Apprentice (PR: 10) (E)

    2023 Performance on December 29th –

    5 for 5! Winner Poor Things was listed second behind Maestro.

    Best Original Score

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Conclave (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Challengers (PR: 5) (+1)

    5. The Room Next Door (PR: 9) (+4)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. The Wild Robot (PR: 4) (-2)

    7. Wicked (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. Sing Sing (PR: 7) (-1)

    9. Nosferatu (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. Blitz (PR: 10) (E)

    2023 Performance on December 29th –

    3 for 5. Oppenheimer was correctly listed 1st. Where I went wrong – I had The Zone of Interest and The Boy and the Heron nominated over #10 American Fiction and the unranked Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny.

    Best Original Song

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

    2. “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (+1)

    3. “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot (PR: 2) (-1)

    4. “The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight (PR: 4) (E)

    5. “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper (PR: 7) (+2)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing (PR: 5) (-1)

    7. “Compress/Repress” from Challengers (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. “Tell Me It’s You” from Mufasa: The Lion King (PR: 8) (E)

    9. “Piece by Piece” from Piece by Piece (PR: 9) (E)

    10. “Sick in the Head” from Kneecap (PR: 10) (E)

    2023 Performance on December 29th –

    3 for 5. “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie was correctly in 1st. Where I went wrong – I had “Road to Freedom” from Rustin and “Keep It Movin” from The Color Purple nominated over #6 “It Never Went Away” from American Symphony and #9 “Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People)” from Killers of the Flower Moon

    Best Production Design

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Wicked (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

    3. The Brutalist (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Conclave (PR: 7) (+2)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Nosferatu (PR: 5) (-1)

    7. Maria (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. Blitz (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Emilia Pérez (PR: 10) (+1)

    10. A Complete Unknown (PR: 9) (-1)

    2023 Performance on December 29th –

    4 for 5. Winner Poor Things was listed 2nd behind Barbie. Where I went wrong – The Color Purple getting nominated over #7 Napoleon.

    Best Sound

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Wicked (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (+1)

    4. A Complete Unknown (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. Blitz (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Gladiator II (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Alien: Romulus (PR: 8) (+1)

    8. The Wild Robot (PR: 7) (-1)

    9. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 9) (E)

    10. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 10) (E)

    2023 Performance on December 29th –

    3 for 5. I had winner The Zone of Interest listed fourth. Where I went wrong – Ferrari and Napoleon being nominated over #8 Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning and #10 The Creator.

    Best Visual Effects

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (+1)

    4. Wicked (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. Alien: Romulus (PR: 8) (+3)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Twisters (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Better Man (PR: 5) (-2)

    8. Mufasa: The Lion King (PR: 7) (-1)

    9. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 9) (E)

    10. Civil War (PR: 10) (E)

    2023 Performance on December 29th –

    3 for 5. My #4 Godzilla Minus One won. Where I went wrong – this is the one category where my #1 (Poor Things) ended up not getting nominated. That’s in addition to having Society of the Snow getting in. #7 Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning and #10 Napoleon made the cut instead.

    Whew. And that leaves the following pictures garnering these numbers of nominations:

    11 Nominations

    Emilia Pérez

    10 Nominations

    The Brutalist

    9 Nominations

    Dune: Part Two

    8 Nominations

    Conclave

    7 Nominations

    Wicked

    5 Nominations

    Anora, The Substance

    4 Nominations

    A Complete Unknown, Gladiator II, Sing Sing

    3 Nominations

    Maria, Nickel Boys

    2 Nominations

    The Girl with the Needle, Nosferatu, A Real Pain, The Wild Robot, Will & Harper

    1 Nomination

    Alien: Romulus, Blitz, Challengers, Daughters, A Different Man, Flow, Hard Truths, I’m Still Here, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Memoir of a Snail, No Other Land, The Piano Lesson, Queer, The Room Next Door, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, September 5, The Six Triple Eight, Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat, Sugarcane, Vermiglio, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl

    Oscars: The Case of Ryan Gosling in Barbie

    As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

    It began with the ten BP contenders and now it alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five big races. Today we arrive at our fourth performer in Best Supporting Actor and that’s Ryan Gosling in Barbie. Let’s get to it!

    Previous Oscar Acting Nominations:

    Half Nelson (Actor, 2006); La La Land (Actor, 2016)

    The Case for Ryan Gosling:

    For his third nomination and first in the supporting field, Gosling has been mentioned everywhere that counts (Globes, SAG, BAFTA, Critics Choice). His show stopping performance of “I’m Just Ken” was a highlight of the year’s biggest blockbuster.

    The Case Against Ryan Gosling:

    He’s lost all of those precursors to Robert Downey Jr. in Oppenheimer. It’s also rare for comedic performances to get victories in any of the acting derbies. Barbie underperformed a tad with omissions for Margot Robbie and director Greta Gerwig (though America Ferrera made the cut).

    The Verdict:

    I’m just saying Downey Jr. is looking solid for gold. Gosling might be runner-up, but distantly.

    My Case Of posts will continue with Martin Scorsese’s direction in Killers of the Flower Moon…

    Oscars: The Case of America Ferrera in Barbie

    As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

    It began with the ten BP contenders and now it alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five big races. Today we arrive at our third performer in Best Supporting Actress and that’s America Ferrera in Barbie. Let’s get to it!

    Previous Oscar Acting Nominations:

    None

    The Case for America Ferrera:

    Every performer wants that obvious Oscar clip and Ferrera has it playing Gloria as the single ma tells the challenges of being a woman. That speech likely propelled the Globe, SAG, and Emmy winner for TV’s Ugly Betty to her first Academy nod. Alongside fellow nominee Ryan Gosling, she was singled out for plaudits in Greta Gerwig’s billion plus grossing phenomenon. A Critics Choice mention preceded this.

    The Case Against America Ferrera:

    Ferrera didn’t make the cut at SAG, BAFTA, and the Globes (unlike Gosling) and the acting branch didn’t recognize lead Margot Robbie. Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers) has won the key precursors so far and stands as the favorite.

    The Verdict:

    I wouldn’t bet on Ferrera making a speech from the podium on March 10th.

    My Case Of posts will continue with Robert Downey Jr. in Oppenheimer…

    76th DGA Awards Winner Predictions

    The 76th DGA Awards take place this Saturday and it’s a key indication to which filmmaker will emerge with the Oscar for direction. How much so? 9 out of the previous 10 DGA recipients have taken the Academy’s gold. The only deviation in the last ten years is Sam Mendes (1917) winning DGA while Bong Joon-Ho was victorious on Oscar night.

    There is usually a 4 out of 5 match between DGA and Oscar nominees in the big race. 2023 diverted from that. There are just 3 DGA contenders vying for the Academy prize: Yorgos Lanthimos (Poor Things), Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer), and Martin Scorsese (Killers of the Flower Moon). Greta Gerwig (Barbie) and Alexander Payne (The Holdovers) are up for DGA while Jonathan Glazer (The Zone of Interest) and Justine Triet (Anatomy of a Fall) look for Academy love.

    Let’s walk through that contest as well as the ones for Documentaries and First-Time Feature Film with predictions for the winner and a runner-up selection.

    Feature Film

    Nominees: Greta Gerwig (Barbie), Yorgos Lanthimos (Poor Things), Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer), Alexander Payne (The Holdovers), Martin Scorsese (Killers of the Flower Moon)

    Even if Oppenheimer doesn’t win BP at the Oscars (and that seems unlikely right now), Nolan appears to be in the driver’s seat for the Academy statue. If he doesn’t take DGA, it would frankly be a shocker. Don’t count on it.

    Predicted Winner: Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer

    Runner-Up: Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon

    First-Time Feature Film

    Nominees: Cord Jefferson (American Fiction), Manuela Martelli (Chile ’76), Noora Niasari (Shayda), A.V. Rockwell (A Thousand and One), Celine Song (Past Lives)

    This is clearly a showdown between the makers of the two BP nominees in Jefferson and Song. Fiction actually had a stronger showing than Lives from the Academy – 5 nominations to 2. Yet I think Song gets this by a nose.

    Predicted Winner: Celine Song, Past Lives

    Runner-Up: Cord Jefferson, American Fiction

    Documentaries

    Moses Bwayo and Christopher Sharp, Bobi Wine: The People’s President, Mstyslav Chernov, 20 Days in Mariupol, Madeleine Gavin, Beyond Utopia, Davis Guggenheim, Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie, D. Smith, Kokomo City

    Even though it wasn’t nominated for Doc Feature at the Academy Awards, Guggenheim’s work in Still could score the hardware (the editing alone could earn it the win). However, I’ll go with Chernov and his likely Oscar frontrunner.

    Predicted Winner: Mstyslav Chernov, 20 Days in Mariupol

    Runner-Up: Davis Guggenheim, Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie

    I’ll have reaction up over the weekend!

    Oscars: The Case of Barbie

    As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

    It begins with the ten BP contenders and then alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five big races. I’ve already covered American Fiction and Anatomy of a Fall and you missed them, they are linked at the bottom of the post. Our third contestant for BP glory is a little picture called Barbie. Perhaps you’ve heard of it. Let’s get into it.

    The Case for Barbie:

    If Oscar voters go with the most popular and seen choice, Greta Gerwig’s fantasy dramedy based on the Mattel doll is your selection. The pic became 2023’s largest earner last summer to the tune of nearly $1.5 billion worldwide and $636 million domestically. It landed BP nods at key precursors including SAG, the Globes, and Critics Choice. In addition to BP, there are seven other nods: Supporting Actress (America Ferrera), Supporting Actor (Ryan Gosling), Adapted Screenplay, Costume Design, Production Design, and 2 possibilities in Original Song (“I’m Just Ken” and “What Was I Made For?”), making it the fourth most nominated feature behind Oppenheimer, Poor Things, and Killers of the Flower Moon.

    The Case Against Barbie:

    Despite the 8 total nominations, there were significant snubs (in case you haven’t read the news this week). Greta Gerwig did not make the quintet in Director and Margot Robbie (despite making all the major precursors) missed in Actress. It is rare (only thrice this century) for a BP recipient to have its filmmaker not even nominated. Barbie didn’t turn up in the final five at BAFTA.

    The Verdict:

    One could argue that the widely publicized news of Gerwig and Robbie’s exclusions could cause Academy voters to honor it here. I wouldn’t bank on it. Barbie is unlikely to go home empty-handed (victories in Production Design and Original Song are probably happening and Costume Design and Adapted Screenplay are doable). As for BP, Barbie‘s roadblock is the movie it will forever be linked with: Christopher Nolan’s Oppenheimer. They opened the same day, crushed the box office charts together, and coined the Barbenheimer phenomenon. It is Oppenheimer way out in front in the big race.

    My Case Of posts will continue with The Holdovers…

    Oscars: The Case of American Fiction
    Oscars: The Case of Anatomy of a Fall