Fireworks and hot dogs may be predictable on July 4th weekend, but 2015’s box office for the holiday is anything but. There are four pictures that all have legitimate shots at being #1 and they include newcomers Terminator Genisys and Magic Mike XXL. You can read my detailed predictions on each of them here:
Both face heavy competition from Jurassic World, which has been spent three weeks on its record breaking #1 run and Pixar’s Inside Out, which has itself set records while perched at second for the last two weeks.
As I see it, I believe there will be a photo finish between Terminator, Jurassic, and Inside Out with Magic Mike taking fourth place due to a projected front loaded five day gross when its hardcore female fans may rush to watch it Wednesday and Thursday. Genisys also opens Wednesday.
Ted 2 came in well below expectations this past weekend (more on that below) and looks to place fifth.
And with that, my predictions for the weekend:
1. Terminator Genisys
Predicted Gross: $31.2 million (Friday to Sunday), $48.4 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
2. Inside Out
Predicted Gross: $30.5 million (representing a drop of 41%)
3. Jurassic World
Predicted Gross: $28.7 million (representing a drop of 47%)
4. Magic Mike XXL
Predicted Gross: $24.8 million (Friday to Sunday), $44 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
5. Ted 2
Predicted Gross: $16.4 million (representing a drop of 51%)
Box Office Results (June 26-28)
As mentioned, Jurassic World continued its history making stampede and placed #1 for the third frame in a row with $54.5 million (ahead of my $51.1M estimate). The three week total stands at an amazing $500 million and looks to place third, if not second, on all time domestic earners.
Pixar’s Inside Out maintained its runner-up status with $52.3 million, in line with my $53.4M projection. Its two week total is $185 million and it should pass the $350M mark with relative ease.
Seth MacFarlane’s comedy sequel Ted 2 posted lackluster results that were well below expectations with $33.5 million, far below my $50.8M prediction. This is a far cry from the $54M earned by the original three summers ago.
The family dog drama Max debuted fourth to an OK $12.2 million, under my $13.9M prediction and Melissa McCarthy’s Spy rounded out the top five with $7.9 million – on pace with my $7.6M estimate for a total of $88M.
And that’s all for now, folks! Until next time…