We have reached 2020 in my posts speculating on a specific piece of Oscar history. As awards followers are aware, 2009 saw the Academy expand the Best Picture category from five movies to ten. That lasted for two years and in 2011, it switched to anywhere from 5-10 with 8 or 9 as the magic numbers for several years. In 2021, the number reverted back to a set ten.
What if that hadn’t happened? What if the BP derby had stayed at a quintet? What pictures would have made the cut?
2020 is a tricky year to consider. As we all know, it was a year dominated by the COVID-19 pandemic. Many of us were working from home and theaters were essentially shuttered for the majority of the year.
Beyond the challenging, tragic, and unprecedented news events of 2020, it was just a strange year for motion pictures. Eight pictures contended for the big prize. I have the leading nominee (with 10) missing the BP cut. The next most nominated film had 6 mentions… and there’s 6 of them. The other BP contender had 5.
My point? Whittling these 8 down to 5 is not easy. Considering it took BP, Director (Chloe Zhao, the second female ever to win), and Actress (Frances McDormand), we can safely reserve a spot for Nomadland. As for the rest? Let’s get into it!
The Father
Florian Zeller’s devastasting drama about Alzheimer’s missed a nod in Director, but Anthony Hopkins landed his second Actor statue over the late Chadwick Boseman in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, who was the frontrunner. Zeller did win Adapted Screenplay and this was also up for Supporting Actress (Olivia Colman), Film Editing, and Production Design.
Does It Make the Final Five?
Yes. Its two wins not only give me confidence of its inclusion in a quintet, but it could be argued this was runner-up to Nomadland.
Judas and the Black Messiah
Daniel Kaluuya won Supporting Actor for his performance as Fred Hampton in Shaka King’s historical drama. Costar Lakeith Stanfield was up in the same race andit was nominated for Original Screenplay and Cinematography. A second statue was given to H.E.R. for her original song “Fight for You”.
Does It Make the Final Five?
No but I certainly struggled with this one. The lack of directing and editing noms have it on the outside looking in.
Mank
This is where it gets complicated. David Fincher’s jaded Netflix aired look at Old Hollywood easily led the program with 10 mentions and it won Cinematography and Production Design. Fincher was also in contention for his behind the camera work. Other nods went to Gary Oldman for Actor, Amanda Seyfried in Supporting Actress, Costume Design, Makeup and Hairstyling, Original Score, and Sound.
Does It Make the Final Five?
Surprisingly enough… I’m saying no. Despite the haul, it is the only one of the 8 nominees not up for screenplay. Furthermore the Film Editing omission feels significant. It certainly isn’t normal to project the leader not making the final five. However, rules are meant to be broken.
Minari
Lee Isaac Chung also garnered a directing spot in that quintet while Youn yuh-Jung was the Supporting Actress recipient in this family drama. Other nods: Actor (Steven Yeun), Original Screenplay, and Original Score.
Does It Make the Final Five?
Yes though I went back and forth. This seemed to gather strength as the season wore on and not just with yuh-Jung. I think it squeaks in.
Promising Young Woman
Emerald Fennell was up for director and won Adapted Screenplay for this revenge dramedy. Carey Mulligan made the Actress cut (and may have been second to McDormand) and it was in for Film Editing.
Does It Make the Final Five?
Yes. The victory in Adapted Screenplay over four other BP hopefuls helps solidify that decision.
Sound of Metal
The impressive haul for the indie drama is Riz Ahmed in Actor, Paul Raci in Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay, and wins in Film Editing and Sound.
Does It Make the Final Five?
Yes though I again went back and forth. While director Darius Marder was left out, it’s the Editing and Sound combo that give it an edge over the three that got left out.
The Trial of the Chicago 7
7‘s six nods came (in addition to BP) in Supporting Actor (Sacha Baron Cohen), Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Film Editing, and Original Song. The Aaron Sorkin political drama is the only BP vier not to take home a single trophy.
Does It Make the Final Five?
No though I struggled again. This Netflix pic undoubtedly didn’t match awards expectations after it was once seen as the on paper favorite. The 0 for 6 performance make it easier to elevate some of the others.
And there you have it. That means my 2020 vision of the Final Five is:
The Father
Minari
Nomadland
Promising Young Woman
Sound of Metal
2021 will be be up soon! If you missed my entries covering 2009-19, you can find them here:
The Supporting Actress derby is up next for my deep dives in the six major categories (Picture, Director, the 4 acting competitions). If you missed my current take on Supporting Actor, it’s here:
With two months left to go in the calendar year, it’s a good time to take stock in where we stand in 2022 with the various hopefuls. In 2019 and 2020 in late October, I correctly identified 3 of the 5 eventual nominees in Supporting Actress. Three years ago, that included eventual winner Laura Dern (Marriage Story) as well as Florence Pugh (Little Women) and Margot Robbie (Bombshell). I had Scarlett Johansson listed in Other Possibilities for Jojo Rabbit while not having Kathy Bates (Richard Jewell) yet on the radar. A year later, the trio of Glenn Close (Hillbilly Elegy), Olivia Colman (The Father), and Amanda Seyfried (Mank) were already in my top five. Youn Yuh-jung (Minari) took the gold. Both she and Maria Bakalova (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm) were tagged in Other Possibilities.
The ratio dropped in 2021. I named 2 of the 5 women with Ariana DeBose in West Side Story (who won) and Kirsten Dunst for The Power of the Dog. 2 nominees – Judi Dench (Belfast) and Aunjanue Ellis (King Richard) – were in Other Possibilities while Jessie Buckley (The Lost Daughter) wasn’t in my listed ten.
We arrive at 2022 where Ms. Buckley is in the mix again. She appears in Women Talking alongside a large ensemble of additional actresses. This film gives us the highest probability of seeing double nominees from the same picture. It’s happened three times since 2010. Melissa Leo and Amy Adams were up for The Fighter that year with Leo emerging victorious. In 2011, Octavia Spencer took the statue for The Help with Jessica Chastain also making the cut. Emma Stone and Rachel Weisz were both in the mix for 2018’s The Favourite.
With Women Talking, the Academy could dive a tad deeper with Judith Ivery and Sheila McCarthy (who are standouts). I suspect they’ll go with Buckley and Claire Foy (who was notably snubbed three years ago for First Man). I’ve had the latter listed in first place as she’s got a slightly meatier role.
That brings us to a key caveat in this race. A few weeks back, there was the unexpected announcement that Michelle Williams in Steven Spielberg’s The Fabelmans would be campaigned for in lead actress. She could’ve easily been placed here. If the studio had done that, I would continue to have Williams at #1 and feel confident that she’d win her first Oscar. However, in the Best Actress competition, I only have her in fourth position as of my last forecast.
Back to performers who are eligible in this. As long as The Banshees of Inisherin performs well with voters (and it should), Kerry Condon should make the quintet and could be a threat to win. Truth be told, this seems like a wide open competition without Williams. I could see either Women Talking actress at the podium or Condon. Same goes for Hong Chau as Brendan Fraser’s caretaker in The Whale or Stephanie Hsu as the world altering daughter in Everything Everywhere All at Once. That film offers the possibility of an additional double nomination with Jamie Lee Curtis’s nearly unrecognizable role. As for The Whale, I think Chau is far more likely than costar Sadie Sink.
I’m not as sold on Anne Hathaway in Armageddon Time, which may not make a dent at the ceremony. The many negative reviews for The Son have me questioning the viability of Vanessa Kirby or Laura Dern. Cha Cha Real Smooth might be too small for Dakota Johnson to nab her first Academy mention. Thuso Mbedu in The Woman King seems like a stretch. There’s unseen performances that could rise up like Kate Winslet (Avatar: The Way of Water) or Jean Smart (Babylon). Of all those choices, only Smart is in the top ten.
Critics groups may be integral in weeding out the nominees. This is where we could see Nina Hoss (Tár) or Dolly de Leon (Triangle of Sadness) rise up. Or we could get a nominee from a forthcoming hit such as Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever) or Janelle Monae (Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery).
Over the past couple of months, all of my five nominees have come from films that I have in my 1o Best Picture hopefuls. That also holds true for Supporting Actor. And, frankly, that usually doesn’t happen. This is partly why I’m putting Carey Mulligan (She Said) in my projections after the studio announced she’ll vie for supporting instead of lead. I’ve got She Said barely missing a BP nod.
Bottom line: nothing is close to being settled in Supporting Actress and the talking about these women could change as we get closer to nomination time.
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Claire Foy, Women Talking (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)
2. Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Jessie Buckley, Women Talking (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Hong Chau, The Whale (PR: 4) (E)
5. Carey Mulligan, She Said (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Dolly De Leon, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Nina Hoss, Tár (PR: 8) (E)
9. Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 10) (+1)
The 2021 derby for Best Supporting Actress at the Oscars might have a bit more clarity than the currently wide open Supporting Actor race, but not much. I’m doing a deep dive on the four acting races as well as Picture and Director. If you missed the first post covering Supporting Actor, you can peruse it right here:
At this point when I was projecting the race in 2019 and 2020, I correctly identified three out of the five eventual nominees. Two years ago, that included the winner Laura Dern in Marriage Story as well as Florence Pugh (Little Women) and Margot Robbie for Bombshell. Scarlett Johansson was mentioned in Other Possibilities while I didn’t have Kathy Bates (Richard Jewell) listed. Last year, the trio of Glenn Close (Hillbilly Elegy), Olivia Colman (The Father), and Amanda Seyfried (Mank) were in my five. Eventual victor Yuh-jung Youn (Minari) and Maria Bakalova (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm) were in Other Possibilities.
Since 2010, there have been three instances where two actresses for the same picture made the cut here. In 2010, it was Melissa Leo (who won) and Amy Adams in The Fighter. A year later, Octavia Spencer took gold for The Help while costar Jessica Chastain also got in. In 2018, both Emma Stone and Rachel Weisz were nominated for The Favourite.
The best chance of that happening in 2021 lies with Caitriona Balfe and Judi Dench for Belfast. The former could be considered the frontrunner at press time. I’m confident that Balfe will be in the quintet of hopefuls. My Supporting Actor forecast has both Jamie Dornan and Ciaran Hinds in for Kenneth Branagh’s period drama. It might be foolish to bet against Dench and she could absolutely get her 8th nod. I do, however, feel the competition is steeper than Supporting Actor at the moment and she could miss out.
Other double nominee possibilities lie with Jessie Buckley and Dakota Johnson in The Lost Daughter, but I could just as easily see lead Olivia Colman garnering all the attention. The as yet unscreened Nightmare Alley could see either Toni Collette or Rooney Mara competing.
Then there’s Mass. Ann Dowd looks to be a better bet than Martha Plimpton. If the acclaimed drama catches on with the Academy, there could be room for both. For now, I’m far more confident in Dowd receiving her first nod after her somewhat surprise omission for 2012’s Compliance.
With Balfe and Dowd penciled in, Kirsten Dunst also appears headed for her inaugural inclusion at the dance for The Power of the Dog. She could even be a threat to win.
After that, it gets murky. There’s plenty of hopefuls. 50 years ago, Rita Moreno took gold as Anita for West Side Story. The forthcoming remake could see Ariana DeBose nominated for the same role in Steven Spielberg’s remake. Marlee Matlin (35 years after taking Best Actress for Children of a Lesser God) got fine reviews for CODA. If the film registers with voters, she could be swept in. King Richard is anticipated to give Will Smith a solid chance at his first Oscar crowning and Aunjanue Ellis (as the mother of Venus and Serena Williams) could share in the wealth. Salma Hayek is part of the House of Gucci ensemble. She hasn’t been visible in the trailers and that gives me pause. Online chatter will be heavy for Rebecca Ferguson in Dune, though I question whether any of its cast makes its way in. Also worthy of mention: Olga Merediz (In the Heights), Gaby Hoffman (C’Mon C’Mon), Kathryn Hunter (The Tragedy of Macbeth), Sally Hawkins (Spencer), and Jayne Houdyshell (The Humans). All are feasible but will need lot some critics prizes to elevate their chances.
Meryl Streep is gunning for her 22nd (!) nomination for Don’t Look Up. Playing the President of the United States in the political satire, it feels strange to leave her out of the top 5 for such a high profile role. Let’s see what the critics think before I more carefully consider her.
One performer who seems to catching on is Ruth Negga for Passing. Nominated for Actress five years back for Loving, I was basically down to a coin flip between her and Aunjanue Ellis for a current slot. I’m leaning toward Negga in what would probably be the film’s sole nod.
Bottom line: right now I have Balfe, Dunst, and Dowd as (fairly) safe bets with the other two spots up for grabs. Here’s where it shakes out as October closes:
Halloween weekend brings five (yes five) pictures either debuting or expanding nationally. Some of them may not treat theirselves to a top 5 finish. The contenders are Edgar Wright’s 60s set psychological horror pic Last Night in Soho, Scott Cooper’s creature feature Antlers, Wes Anderson’s latest comedy The French Dispatch, Japanese animated sequel My Heroes Academia: World Heroes’ Mission, and Amanda Seyfried in the drama A Mouthful of Air. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the quintet at these links:
I’ll begin with the low hanging fruit. Mouthful is only opening in 800 theaters and has barely been advertised. My tiny $846,000 estimate leaves it outside of the top ten.
Of all the premieres, I suspect Academia could actually make the most and it might be the only one in the top 5. This is based on the assumption that Soho and Antlers will both struggle.
The French Dispatch is more of a question mark. It debuted in 52 venues this weekend and its $1.3 million take (good for ninth place) represents the highest per screen average in the COVID era. However, that could be misleading as it expands across the nation and non-Anderson fanatics may not turn out.
As for holdovers, Dune met expectations in its start (more on that below) and seemed to garner the audience stamp of approval with an A- Cinemascore. It should easily maintain the top spot and I’ll say a 50-55% dip is most feasible. Halloween Kills, No Time to Die, Academia, and maybe even Venom (or Soho or Antlers or Dispatch if they exceed my forecasts) could battle it out for the runner-up position.
With all the new product, my typical top 5 expands to a top 10 as we close out October. Here’s how I see it:
1. Dune
Predicted Gross: $18.5 million
2. No Time to Die
Predicted Gross: $6.3 million
3. Halloween Kills
Predicted Gross: $6.1 million
4. My Hero Academia: World Heroes’ Mission
Predicted Gross: $6.1 million
5. Venom: Let There Be Carnage
Predicted Gross: $5.6 million
6. Last Night in Soho
Predicted Gross: $5.2 million
7. Ron’s Gone Wrong
Predicted Gross: $4.1 million
8. The French Dispatch
Predicted Gross: $3.8 million
9. The Addams Family 2
Predicted Gross: $3.3 million
10. Antlers
Predicted Gross: $3.2 million
Box Office Results (October 22-24)
Despite its simultaneous availability on HBO Max, Denis Villeneuve’s long awaited sci-fi epic Dune performed in the range of anticipation with $41 million, just under my $42.8 million prediction. Considering its streaming dollars, that should certainly be enough for the expected part II.
Halloween Kills was slashed steeply in weekend #2 with $14.4 million. I was a tad higher at $15.4 million. The middle pic in the trilogy is up to a solid $73 million.
No Time to Die was third with $12.2 million, right on pace with my $12.1 million take. The 25th Bond adventure sits at $120 million.
Venom: Let There Be Carnage took fourth with $9.3 million (I said $9.5 million) for $182 million overall.
Finally, the animated Ron’s Gone Wrong didn’t connect with family audiences. Despite complimentary critical reaction, it opened in the five spot with $7.3 million (not matching my $8.4 million projection).
Amanda Seyfried headlines the postpartum depression drama A Mouthful of Air, which releases in approximately 800 theaters on October 29th. From writer/director Amy Koppelman (adapting her own novel), Air costars Finn Wittrock, Jennifer Carpenter, Amy Irving, and Paul Giamatti.
The soft output screen wise likely means small returns for the feature. While Air will hope to attract a female audience, I believe it could struggle to reach $1 million for its start. That means it could and probably will premiere outside of the top ten.
A Mouthful of Air opening weekend prediction: $846,000
I can’t help myself. I keep doing my Oscar predictions earlier and earlier each year. Today marks the first edition of my ranked forecasts in the 8 biggest races: Picture, Director, the four acting competitions, and the two screenplay contests.
It probably stands to reason that the sooner you do projections – the more inaccurate they might be. Oh but it’s so very fun to speculate! I do like to put my initial rankings up before the Toronto, Venice, and Telluride Film Festivals make the picture more clear and we are only about a month from that. Those events will bring us early buzz on The Power of the Dog, Dune, Spencer, The Last Duel, The Humans, Parallel Mothers, Belfast, Dear Evan Hansen, The Eyes of Tammy Faye, Last Night in Soho, and more.
This post comes about three weeks ahead of when I did this in 2020. That year, to say the least, was hard to figure out. In fact, many of the pictures and performers I had in my 2020 inaugural rankings were moved back to 2021 due to COVID delays. Think Dune, The French Dispatch, West Side Story, Respect, C’Mon C’Mon, Annette, and The Eyes of Tammy Faye.
So how did my first ranked predictions from 2020 pan out? My Best Picture guesstimates yielded three of the eventual nominees: winner Nomadland, Mank, and The Trial of the Chicago 7. Nomadland started out of the gate at #2 (behind Mank). Three other contenders were listed under Other Possibilities – The Father, Judas and the Black Messiah, and Minari. Promising Young Woman and Sound of Metal were not mentioned.
2 of the 5 director nominees were correctly identified: winner Chloe Zhao (Nomadland) and David Fincher (Mank). None of the other hopefuls (Lee Isaac Chung for Minari, Emerald Fennell for Promising Young Woman, or Another Round‘s Thomas Vinterberg) were even in Other Possibilities.
In Best Actress, I initially identified 2 – winner Frances McDormand (Nomadland) and Viola Davis (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom). Andra Day (The United States vs. Billie Holiday) and Carey Mulligan (Promising Young Woman) were Other Possibilities while Vanessa Kirby in Pieces of a Woman didn’t score a listing.
As for Actor, winner Anthony Hopkins (The Father) and Gary Oldman (Mank) made my first cut. I incorrectly had Daniel Kaluuya (Judas and the Black Messiah) projected here instead of Supporting Actor (which he won). **This is a good time to remind you all that some of the acting contenders thought to be in lead right now will switch to supporting and vice versa. As further evidence, I had Chadwick Boseman (Ma Rainey) predicted in supporting, but he contended here. I did not yet have Riz Ahmed (Sound of Metal) or Steven Yeun (Minari) on my radar.
Two Supporting Actress players were correctly called: Glenn Close (Hillbilly Elegy) and Olivia Colman (The Father) with Amanda Seyfried (Mank) in Other Possibilities. No mention for the winner Youn Yun-jung in Minari or Maria Bakalova for Borat Subsequent Moviefilm.
Per above, Daniel Kaluuya’s work in Judas was slotted in lead, but he emerged victorious here. My Supporting Actor picks did get 2 of 5: Lakeith Stanfield in Judas and Sacha Baron Cohen for Chicago 7. The two others (Leslie Odom Jr. in One Night in Miami and Paul Raci in Sound of Metal) went unnoticed at the early stage.
Just one nominee in Original Screenplay got the initial mention – Chicago 7. I did have 3 others (winner Promising Young Woman, Judas, Minari) down for Other Possibilities while Sound of Metal wasn’t mentioned. And in Adapted Screenplay, I only rightly projected Nomadland. Winner The Father, One Night in Miami, and The White Tiger were other possibilities with no mention for Borat.
Whew. OK. I’m not going through all for 2019. However, I will say my results were better two years ago with my first picks (evidence of the uncertainty of last year). The quick rundown: I got 6 of the 9 nominees in Best Picture and identified the remaining three in other possibilities. In Director, it was 4 out of 5. For Actress – 4 for 5 with the other nominee listed sixth. Actor – 3 for 5 with the two others as possibilities. The weak spot was Supporting Actress – just 1 out of 5 with 2 others as possibilities. 2 for 5 in Supporting Actor with 2 others as possibilities. 3 for 5 initially in both screenplay races.
And now we come to 2021. Will I look back next year and be happy with the accuracy or shake my head? Hopefully a mix (that’s probably the best case scenario). In about two months, I will start predictions for all categories covering feature films and whittle BP from 25 to 15 hopefuls with all others going from a projected 15 to 10.
There already was some news from when I penned my early and unranked predictions last week. David O. Russell’s Canterbury Glass, with an all star cast led by Christian Bale and Margot Robbie, has reportedly moved to 2022. It was mentioned in numerous categories (Picture, Director, Actor, Actress, Supporting Actor – John David Washington) and it now waits its turn until next year. Same story for Taika Waititi’s Next Goal Wins and Blonde from Andrew Dominik.
Let’s get to it!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. House of Gucci
2. The Power of the Dog
3. The Tragedy of Macbeth
4. Nightmare Alley
5. Dune
6. Soggy Bottom
7. Mass
8. West Side Story
9. Belfast
10. Don’t Look Up
Other Possibilities:
11. A Hero
12. CODA
13. Flee
14. The French Dispatch
15. Spencer
16. Tick Tick… Boom!
17. Cyrano
18. The Humans
19. Blue Bayou
20. King Richard
21. The Last Duel
22. Dear Evan Hansen
23. In the Heights
24. Last Night in Soho
25. Annette
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ridley Scott, House of Gucci
2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune
3. Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
4. Guillermo del Toro, Nightmare Alley
5. Joel Coen, The Tragedy of Macbeth
Other Possibilities:
6. Paul Thomas Anderson, Soggy Bottom
7. Asghar Farhadi, A Hero
8. Kenneth Branagh, Belfast
9. Steven Spielberg, West Side Story
10. Adam McKay, Don’t Look Up
11. Fran Kranz, Mass
12. Sian Heder, CODA
13. Jonas Poher Rasmussen, Flee
14. Wes Anderson, The French Dispatch
15. Pablo Larrain, Spencer
Best Actress
1. Lady Gaga, House of Gucci
2. Frances McDormand, The Tragedy of Macbeth
3. Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog
4. Jennifer Hudson, Respect
5. Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Other Possibilities:
6. Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers
7. Kristen Stewart, Spencer
8. Emilia Jones, CODA
9. Rachel Zegler, West Side Story
10. Cate Blanchett, Nightmare Alley
11. Renate Reinsve, The Worst Person in the World
12. Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos
13. Jodie Comer, The Last Duel
14. Jennifer Lawrence, Don’t Look Up
15. Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth
2. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog
3. Will Smith, King Richard
4. Adam Driver, House of Gucci
5. Amir Jadidi, A Hero
Other Possibilities:
6. Andrew Garfield, Tick Tick… Boom!
7. Clifton Collins, Jr., Jockey
8. Peter Dinklage, Cyrano
9. Bradley Cooper, Nightmare Alley
10. Leonardo DiCaprio, Don’t Look Up
11. Joaquin Phoenix, C’Mon C’Mon
12. Cooper Hoffman, Soggy Bottom
13. Adam Driver, Annette
14. Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos
15. Nicolas Cage, Pig
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ann Dowd, Mass
2. Ariana DeBose, West Side Story
3. Martha Plimpton, Mass
4. Jayne Houdyshell, The Humans
5. Marlee Matlin, CODA
Other Possibilities:
6. Ruth Negga, Passing
7. Olga Merediz, In the Heights
8. Regina King, The Harder They Fall
9. Thomasin McKenzie, The Power of the Dog
10. Toni Collette, Nightmare Alley
11. Judi Dench, Belfast
12. Anya Taylor-Joy, Last Night in Soho
13. Meryl Streep, Don’t Look Up
14. Audra McDonald, Respect
15. Sally Hawkins, Spencer
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Bradley Cooper, Soggy Bottom
2. Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog
3. Jason Isaacs, Mass
4. Richard Jenkins, The Humans
5. Idris Elba, The Harder They Fall
Other Possibilities:
6. Corey Hawkins, The Tragedy of Macbeth
7. Richard E. Grant, Everybody’s Talking About Jamie
My earliest 2021 Oscar predictions continues with Best Supporting Actress! If you missed my first post covering the supporting gentlemen, you can find it here:
In that post, you can find all the caveats about how early we are in the season and so forth. We will have the Venice and Toronto in weeks and that will certainly shape the race.
One season ago, amidst all the pandemic uncertainty, I correctly called 2 of the 5 eventual nominees here (Glenn Close in Hillbilly Elegy and Olivia Colman for The Father). Amanda Seyfried (Mank) was listed in the possibilities section. Eventual winner Youn Yuh-Jung (Minari) and Maria Bakalova (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm) were not mentioned.
Next week I’ll begin the official rankings, but here’s where I have the competition at this early moment:
Blogger’s Note (04/23): After ever more careful consideration, I have decided to change my Best Actress prediction again. I am not reverting back to Carey Mulligan instead of Viola Davis. Did I mention this is a tough category??
Blogger’s Note (04/21): After careful consideration, I have decided to change my Best Actress prediction from my original Monday (04/19) post. Carey Mulligan is out in favor of Viola Davis… no other predictions have changed.
And here we go! After 8 months of lots and lots of speculation, it’s time to make my final picks in the races covering feature length films. I have finished up my 33 posts covering the nominees in Best Picture, Director and the four acting races.
The 93rd Academy Awards airs this Sunday evening. A couple of quick note before delving into the forecasts on the 20 categories. There are surefire frontrunners in a lot of competitions this year and that includes Picture, Director, Supporting Actor, and Supporting Actress (as well as most technical races). The real drama lies in the two leading acting competitions, especially Best Actress.
For each race, I will name my predicted winner and what I believe to be the runner-up. Without further adieu, let’s get to it!
Best Picture
Nominees: The Father, Judas and the Black Messiah, Mank, Minari, Nomadland, Promising Young Woman, Sound of Metal, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Analysis: Nomadland has taken all the precursors it needs to: Globes, SAG, Critics Choice, BAFTA. I would say that in most recent years, there’s been some drama in Best Picture. Not this year. If there’s any chance of an upset, it could be Minari or Promising Young Woman. For a Green Book type of upset, that could be The Trial of the Chicago 7 and that’s what I’m picking as my #2. Yet let me be clear: anything not named Nomadland taking the biggest prize would be a huge upset at this point.
Predicted Winner: Nomadland
Runner-Up: The Trial of the Chicago 7
Best Director
Nominees: Lee Isaac Chung (Minari), Emerald Fennell (Promising Young Woman), David Fincher (Mank), Thomas Vinterberg (Another Round), Chloe Zhao (Nomadland)
Analysis: For reasons expressed above, it’s hard to imagine anyone other than Chloe Zhao getting the gold. She’s won all the precursors and it’s difficult to even name a runner-up (I’ll go Fincher I suppose).
Predicted Winner: Chloe Zhao, Nomadland
Runner-Up: David Fincher, Mank
Best Actress
Nominees: Viola Davis (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom), Andra Day (The United States vs. Billie Holiday), Vanessa Kirby (Pieces of a Woman), Frances McDormand (Nomadland), Carey Mulligan (Promising Young Woman)
Analysis: Ugh. This is literally the most head scratching race of all. There is no favorite as the major precursors have split. Andra Day, in an upset, took the Globe. Carey Mulligan won Critics Choice. Viola Davis is the SAG recipient. Frances Mcdormand is the BAFTA victor. All of those precursors have a good or very good record of predicting the eventual Academy winner. Confused yet? Me too.
Vanessa Kirby is the least likely to take this and it’s not out of the question that she could. Day’s omission from SAG makes it tough for me to predict her. So we are left with Davis, McDormand, and Mulligan and they all could certainly be making a podium trip. With Nomadland almost surely taking Pic and Director and McDormand’s BAFTA win, it’s tempting to pick her. However, she’s won twice already and the last time was just three years ago. Promising Young Woman did very well in grabbing 5 nominations. Mulligan is a highly respected actress who’s only been nominated once before and this is a showy role that got a lot of attention. Davis’s SAG victory makes me lean toward her, but the Academy not giving Rainey a Best Picture nod gives me some pause.
So… my final decision is Mulligan… with zero degree of confidence. There’s great narratives for McDormand, Mulligan, and Davis so roll the dice with your pick and see what happens!
Predicted Winner: Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman
Runner-Up: Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Best Actor
Nominees: Riz Ahmed (Sound of Metal), Chadwick Boseman (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom), Anthony Hopkins (The Father), Gary Oldman (Mank), Steven Yeun (Minari)
Analysis: For the duration of the precursor season, the late Chadwick Boseman appeared on a glide path to Oscar coronation. That’s until Anthony Hopkins took the BAFTA and made this race considerably more interesting. I will also say that Riz Ahmed has his supporters, but this is a two person race. I do truly believe Hopkins has a very good shot, but I ultimately just can’t pick against Boseman.
Predicted Winner: Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Runner-Up: Anthony Hopkins, The Father
Best Supporting Actress
Nominees: Maria Bakalova (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm), Glenn Close (Hillbilly Elegy), Olivia Colman (The Father), Amanda Seyfried (Mank), Yuh-jung Youn (Minari)
Analysis: This was a wide open category for a while, but Yuh-jung Youn’s recent victories at SAG and BAFTA came at the right time. There is upset potential from both Maria Bakalova and the eight times nominated and never won Glenn Close, but Youn is the safest pick.
Predicted Winner: Yuh-jung Youn, Minari
Runner-Up: Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Best Supporting Actor
Nominees: Sacha Baron Cohen (The Trial of the Chicago 7), Daniel Kaluuya (Judas and the Black Messiah), Leslie Odom Jr. (One Night in Miami), Paul Raci (Sound of Metal), Lakeith Stanfield (Judas and the Black Messiah)
Analysis: Daniel Kaluuya has steamrolled through precursors and this is definitely the easiest pick of the acting derbies. I’m not even the least bit worried about his costar Lakeith Stanfield splitting votes.
Predicted Winner: Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah
Runner-Up: Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (I guess)
Best Original Screenplay
Nominees: Judas and the Black Messiah, Minari, Promising Young Woman, Sound of Metal, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Analysis: If Mulligan doesn’t win Best Actress (which is quite possible), Promising should still walk away with a win here. Minari and Trial are threats, but feeling pretty confident with this one.
Predicted Winner: Promising Young Woman
Runner-Up: The Trial of the Chicago 7
Best Adapted Screenplay
Nominees: Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, The Father, Nomadland, One Night in Miami, The White Tiger
Analysis: While Nomadland looks like a shoo-in in Picture, I could see The Father threatening it in this race. I’m really tempted to go with it, but I’m sticking with Nomadland. Don’t be surprised if The Father takes this though.
Predicted Winner: Nomadland
Runner-Up: The Father
Best Animated Feature
Nominees: Onward, Over the Moon, A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon, Soul, Wolfwalkers
Analysis: Not wasting much word count here. Pixar is dominant in this category. Soul has dominated the other shows.
Predicted Winner: Soul
Runner-Up: Wolfwalkers
Best Documentary Feature
Nominees: Collective, Crip Camp, The Mole Agent, My Octopus Teacher, Time
Analysis: My Octopus Teacher has surprisingly emerged as the favorite due to precursor wins. There’s certainly a narrative for its win as the other more serious selections could split votes. That said, while Octopus is the safe pick, I’m going for a bit of an upset with the acclaimed Time. For those filling out ballots for work and friend pools, Octopus might be the way to go.
Predicted Winner: Time
Runner-Up: My Octopus Teacher
Best International Feature Film
Nominees: Another Round, Better Days, Collective, The Man Who Sold His Skin, Quo Vadis, Aida?
Analysis: It’s going to be Another Round. It’s wrapped up the precursors it needs and it would be foolish to pick against it.
Predicted Winner: Another Round
Runner-Up: Quo Vadis, Aida?
Best Cinematography
Nominees: Judas and the Black Messiah, Mank, News of the World, Nomadland, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Analysis: Mank could be and should be a trendy upset choice, but Nomadland is most likely to grab this.
Predicted Winner: Nomadland
Runner-Up: Mank
Best Costume Design
Nominees: Emma, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Mank, Mulan, Pinocchio
Analysis: Another sturdy frontrunner here with Ma Rainey.
Predicted Winner: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Runner-Up: Emma
Best Film Editing
Nominees: The Father, Nomadland, Promising Young Woman, Sound of Metal, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Analysis: For some time, it looked like this might be the one award Trial would receive. And then Sound of Metal started winning the big precursors. Sound is probably a little ahead by most standards, but I’m still leaning Trial for its flashier editing. This is essentially a coin flip in my view.
Predicted Winner: The Trial of the Chicago 7
Runner-Up: Sound of Metal
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Nominees: Emma, Hillbilly Elegy, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Mank, Pinocchio
Analysis: Another tech race where Rainey seems way out in front.
Predicted Winner: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Runner-Up: Pinocchio
Best Original Score
Nominees: Da 5 Bloods, Mank, Minari, News of the World, Soul
Analysis: Like in Animated Feature, Soul has killed it in the precursors. This is not a tough choice.
Predicted Winner: Soul
Runner-Up: Minari
Best Original Song
Nominees: “Fight for You” from Judas and the Black Messiah, “Hear My Voice” from The Trial of the Chicago 7, “Husavik” from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga, “lo si (Seen)” from The Life Ahead, “Speak Now” from One Night in Miami
Analysis: This is a tough choice. I’ve had this nagging feeling that if “Husavik” got in, it could definitely win and I still feel that way. Then there’s Diane Warren who’s behind “lo si”. She’s been nominated 12 times without a win and the overdue factor is real. “Speak Now” is probably the safe choice. I really believe that we could see a surprise here, but I’ll reluctantly stick with Leslie Odom Jr. getting an Oscar for the One Night in Miami track.
Predicted Winner: “Speak Now” from One Night in Miami
Runner-Up: “lo si (Seen)” from The Life Ahead
Best Production Design
Nominees: The Father, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Mank, News of the World, Tenet
Analysis: This is absolutely where Mank should win and that means I think it goes 1/10.
Predicted Winner: Mank
Runner-Up: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Best Sound
Nominees: Greyhound, Mank, News of the World, Soul, Sound of Metal
Analysis: Sound of Metal has had this wrapped up for some time. Plain and simple.
Predicted Winner: Sound of Metal
Runner-Up: Soul
Best Visual Effects
Nominees: Love and Monsters, The Midnight Sky, Mulan, The One and Only Ivan, Tenet
Analysis: This appears to be a two picture battle between The Midnight Sky and Tenet, but the latter seems to have moved fairly comfortably in front.
Predicted Winner: Tenet
Runner-Up: The Midnight Sky
That means I believe the following pictures will walk away with these numbers in terms of victories:
4 Wins
Nomadland
3 Wins
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
2 Wins
Promising Young Woman, Soul
1 Win
Another Round, Judas and the Black Messiah, Mank, Minari, One Night in Miami, Sound of Metal, Tenet, Time, The Trial of the Chicago 7
For the 8 Best Picture hopefuls, I’m projecting that only The Father will go home completely empty-handed (though it could certainly happen to Trial as well).
I will, of course, have a recap up with my thoughts on the show and how I did shortly after Sunday’s ceremony. Stay tuned!
Amanda Seyfried’s work as screen star Marion Davies in David Fincher’s Mank is next up for my Case Of posts in the Supporting Actress competition. If you missed the ones focused on Maria Bakalova (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm), Glenn Close (Hillbilly Elegy), and Olivia Colman (The Father), click below:
The former Mean Girl drew career best notices for the Netflix pic and earned her first nomination. Seyfried also picked up nods at the Golden Globes and Critics Choice Awards.
The Case Against Amanda Seyfried
She did not, however, get a SAG Award mention and that was a surprise. There’s been just two Oscar recipients (Marcia Gay Harden for Pollock and Regina King in If Beale Street Could Talk) in Supporting Actress who didn’t at least get a SAG nomination. Furthermore, Yuh-jung Youn (Minari) has emerged as the frontrunner.
The Verdict
Upsets have happened in this category, but Seyfried’s chances are slim.
My Case Of posts will continue with Paul Raci in Sound of Metal…
David Fincher’s Mank marks my third Case Of post weighing the pros and cons of the Best Picture contenders. If you missed my takes on The Father and Judas and the Black Messiah, you can find them here:
With 10 nominations, the Netflix pic easily leads the field in terms of nominations. In fact, it has four more nods than anything else as there are six movies with six mentions. Hollywood loves stories about itself and Fincher is rightfully seen as overdue for Oscar recognition (his previous nominated features are The Curious Case of Benjamin Button and The Social Network).
The Case Against Mank
Leading the pack isn’t much of a designation when it comes to the ceremony itself. Only three times in the previous decade did the film with the most nominations (or tied for most nods) win Best Picture (2010’s The King’s Speech, 2014’s Birdman, 2017’s The Shape of Water). While the pic managed nominations for Director, Gary Oldman for Actor (winner three years ago for Darkest Hour), and first time contender Amanda Seyfried in Supporting Actress, it missed major races that usually bode well for a Picture win. The most notable omissions are Original Screenplay (for the director’s late father Jack Fincher) and Film Editing. Of the 8 nominees, its 83% Rotten Tomatoes rating is the lowest of the bunch.
The Verdict
You may have noticed the case against Mank is a higher word count than the case for. That’s because Mank, despite its numbers, is an unlikely hopeful for any category besides Production Design.
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