On Monday, one of the most significant Oscar precursors announces their nominations. Yes, we have the Golden Globe nods coming out with the SAG Awards following on Wednesday (except my predictions on them early this week).
While I’ve been updating my Oscar projections on a near weekly basis, I don’t do the same with the Globes. This will serve as my first and last batch of predictions for the ceremony airing in January with Ricky Gervais hosting.
As you’re likely aware, this show does it a bit different than the Oscars by splitting their film and lead actor categories into separate Drama and Musical/Comedy categories. For each race, I’m making my five predicted features or performers that I believe will make the cut as well as a first and second alternate.
Let’s get to it!
Best Motion Picture – Drama
1917
Ford v Ferrari
The Irishman
Little Women
Marriage Story
1st Alternate – Joker
2nd Alternate – The Two Popes
Best Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy
Cats
Jojo Rabbit
Knives Out
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Rocketman
1st Alternate – Dolemite Is My Name
2nd Alternate – Hustlers
Best Director
Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story
Bong Joon-Ho, Parasite
Sam Mendes, 1917
Martin Scorsese, The Irishman
Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
1st Alternate – Greta Gerwig, Little Women
2nd Alternate – James Mangold, Ford v Ferrari
Best Actress – Drama
Cynthia Erivo, Harriet
Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story
Saoirse Ronan, Little Women
Charlize Theron, Bombshell
Renee Zellweger, Judy
1st Alternate – Lupita Nyong’o, Us
2nd Alternate – Alfre Woodard, Clemency
Best Actor – Drama
Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory
Robert De Niro, The Irishman
Adam Driver, Marriage Story
Joaquin Phoenix, Joker
Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes
1st Alternate – Christian Bale, Ford v Ferrari
2nd Alternate – Adam Sandler, Uncut Gems
Best Actress – Comedy or Musical
Awkwafina, The Farewell
Ana de Armas, Knives Out
Beanie Feldstein, Booksmart
Emma Thompson, Late Night
Constance Wu, Hustlers
1st Alternate – Cate Blanchett, Where’d You Go, Bernadette
2nd Alternate – Kaitlyn Dever, Booksmart
Best Actor – Comedy or Musical
Daniel Craig, Knives Out
Roman Griffin Davis, Jojo Rabbit
Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Taron Egerton, Rocketman
Eddie Murphy, Dolemite Is My Name
1st Alternate – Shia LaBeouf, The Peanut Butter Falcon
2nd Alternate – Himesh Patel, Yesterday
Best Supporting Actress
Laura Dern, Marriage Story
Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit
Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers
Florence Pugh, Little Women
Margot Robbie, Bombshell
1st Alternate – Annette Bening, The Report
2nd Alternate – Zhao Shuzhen, The Farewell
Best Supporting Actor
Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes
Al Pacino, The Irishman
Joe Pesci, The Irishman
Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
1st Alternate – Willem Dafoe, The Lighthouse
2nd Alternate – Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit
Best Screenplay
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Marriage Story
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Parasite
1st Alternate – The Two Popes
2nd Alternate – Knives Out
Best Motion Picture – Animated
Frozen II
How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
I Lost My Body
Missing Link
Toy Story 4
1st Alternate – Weathering with You
2nd Alternate – Abominable
Best Motion Picture – Foreign Language
Atlantics
The Farewell
Pain and Glory
Parasite
Portrait of a Lady on Fire
1st Alternate – Les Miserables
2nd Alternate – Monos
Best Original Score
1917
Ford v Ferrari
Joker
Little Women
Marriage Story
1st Alternate – The Aeronauts
2nd Alternate – Us
Best Original Song
“Beautiful Ghosts” from Cats
“Daily Battles” from Motherless Brooklyn
“(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again” from Rocketman
“Into the Unknown” from Frozen II
“Spirit” from The Lion King
1st Alternate – “I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away” from Toy Story 4
2nd Alternate – “Stand Up” from Harriet
And that equates to the following features nabbing these numbers when it comes to nominations:
7 Nominations
Marriage Story
6 Nominations
The Irishman
5 Nominations
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
4 Nominations
Jojo Rabbit, Little Women
3 Nominations
1917, Knives Out, Parasite, Rocketman
2 Nominations
Bombshell, Cats, The Farewell, Ford v Ferrari, Frozen II, Hustlers, Joker, Pain and Glory, The Two Popes
1 Nomination
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, Atlantics, Booksmart, Dolemite Is My Name, Harriet, How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World, I Lost My Body, Judy, Late Night, The Lion King, Missing Link, Portrait of a Lady on Fire, Toy Story 4
Rest assured that I will have a post up with reaction to the Monday announcements with a recap on how I did! Until then…
Two key screenings took place over the week with significant Oscar implications and there’s some movement in major categories to discuss:
1917, the World War I epic from Sam Mendes, finally availed itself to critics and the feedback is extremely positive. While I’d had it projected for Picture and Director for some time, its numbers (3 and 2 respectively) are the highest yet.
Clint Eastwood’s Richard Jewell screened at AFI Fest. Some reviews indicate it’s a contender in Picture, but I’m not quite there. It does vault back in the 15 possibilities at 13 and both Paul Walter Hauser in Actor and Kathy Bates in Supporting Actress are now in the mix, but not projected in the top five.
Bombshell is back in my ten projected Picture nominees over Ford v Ferrari.
Zhao Shuzhen finally makes the cut in Supporting Actress, displacing Scarlett Johansson in Jojo Rabbit.
Tom Hanks slides to fifth in Supporting Actor after the so-so box office performance of A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood. I suspect he could fall out with Joe Pesci (The Irishman) and Shia LaBeouf (Honey Boy) hot on his heels.
While my five Best Actor contenders remain the same, this is the most packed field in ages. I could legitimately see any of my ten listed thespians getting in, as well as Christian Bale (who falls to 11th).
Let’s get to it!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Irishman (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)
3. 1917 (PR: 6)
4. Marriage Story (PR: 4)
5. Parasite (PR: 3)
6. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 5)
7. Little Women (PR: 7)
8. Joker (PR: 8)
9. The Two Popes (PR: 9)
10. Bombshell (PR: 11)
Other Possibilities:
11. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 10)
12. The Farewell (PR: 12)
13. Richard Jewell (PR: Not Ranked)
14. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 13)
15. Rocketman (PR: 14)
Dropped Out:
Waves
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Martin Scorsese, The Irishman (PR: 1)
2. Sam Mendes, 1917 (PR: 5)
3. Bong Joon-Ho, Parasite (PR: 3)
4. Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)
5. Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Greta Gerwig, Little Women (PR: 6)
7. Todd Phillips, Joker (PR: 9)
8. Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit (PR: 8)
9. James Mangold, Ford v Ferrari (PR: 7)
10. Fernando Meirelles, The Two Popes (PR: 10)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Adam Driver, Marriage Story (PR: 1)
2. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker (PR: 2)
3. Robert De Niro, The Irishman (PR: 3)
4. Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 5)
5. Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory (PR: 6)
7. Eddie Murphy, Dolemite Is My Name (PR: 8)
8. Taron Egerton, Rocketman (PR: 7)
9. Paul Walter Hauser, Richard Jewell (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Adam Sandler, Uncut Gems (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Christian Bale, Ford v Ferrari
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Renee Zellweger, Judy (PR: 1)
2. Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story (PR: 2)
3. Charlize Theron, Bombshell (PR: 3)
4. Saoirse Ronan, Little Women (PR: 4)
5. Cynthia Erivo, Harriet (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Awkwafina, The Farewell (PR: 6)
7. Alfre Woodard, Clemency (PR: 8)
8. Lupita Nyong’o, Us (PR: 7)
9. Elisabeth Moss, Her Smell (PR: 9)
10. Mary Kay Place, Diane (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jodie Turner-Smith, Queen and Slim
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Laura Dern, Marriage Story (PR: 1)
2. Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers (PR: 3)
3. Margot Robbie, Bombshell (PR: 2)
4. Zhao Shuzhen, The Farewell (PR: 6)
5. Florence Pugh, Little Women (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit (PR: 5)
7. Annette Bening, The Report (PR: 7)
8. Kathy Bates, Richard Jewell (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey (PR: 8)
10. Margot Robbie, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Thomasin McKenzie, Jojo Rabbit
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)
2. Al Pacino, The Irishman (PR: 2)
3. Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes (PR: 5)
4. Willem Dafoe, The Lighthouse (PR: 3)
5. Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joe Pesci, The Irishman (PR: 7)
7. Shia LaBeouf, Honey Boy (PR: 6)
8. Sterling K. Brown, Waves (PR: 9)
9. Song Kang-Ho, Parasite (PR: 8)
10. John Lithgow, Bombshell (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jamie Foxx, Just Mercy
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)
2. Marriage Story (PR: 1)
3. Parasite (PR: 3)
4. The Farewell (PR: 4)
5. Pain and Glory (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Bombshell (PR: 6)
7. 1917 (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Knives Out (PR: 7)
9. Honey Boy (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Booksmart
Waves
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Irishman (PR: 1)
2. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 2)
3. The Two Popes (PR: 4)
4. Little Women (PR: 3)
5. Joker (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 6)
7. Hustlers (PR: 9)
8. Richard Jewell (PR: 8)
9. Just Mercy (PR: 7)
10. Dark Waters (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Downton Abbey
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Parasite (PR: 1)
2. Pain and Glory (PR: 2)
3. Les Miserables (PR: 3)
4. Monos (PR: 8)
5. And Then We Danced (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Invisible Life (PR: 6)
7. Atlantics (PR: 7)
8. Beanpole (PR: 5)
9. Those Who Remained (PR: 9)
10. A White, White Day (PR: 10)
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Toy Story 4 (PR: 1)
2. Frozen II (PR: 2)
3. How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World (PR: 3)
4. I Lost My Body (PR: 4)
5. Weathering with You (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Klaus (PR: 8)
7. Abominable (PR: 6)
8. Missing Link (PR: 7)
9. Bunuel in the Labyrinth of the Turtles (PR: 9)
10. Funan (PR: 10)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. American Factory (PR: 1)
2. One Child Nation (PR: 2)
3. Maiden (PR: 6)
4. Apollo 11 (PR: 5)
5. For Sama (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Cave (PR: 3)
7. The Biggest Little Farm (PR: 7)
8. Honeyland (PR: 4)
9. Sea of Shadows (PR: 8)
10. The Kingmaker (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Edge of Democracy
Knock Down the House
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. 1917 (PR: 1)
2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)
3. The Irishman (PR: 3)
4. The Lighthouse (PR: 4)
5. Joker (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Parasite (PR: 9)
7. A Hidden Life (PR: 7)
8. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 8)
9. Little Women (PR: 10)
10. Ad Astra (PR: 6)
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Little Women (PR: 2)
2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)
3. Dolemite Is My Name (PR: 4)
4. Rocketman (PR: 5)
5. Downton Abbey (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Irishman (PR: 6)
7. Judy (PR: 10)
8. The Aeronauts (PR: 7)
9. Cats (PR: 9)
10. Aladdin (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jojo Rabbit
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Irishman (PR: 1)
2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 3)
3. 1917 (PR: 4)
4. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 2)
5. Parasite (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Marriage Story (PR: 6)
7. Joker (PR: 9)
8. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 7)
9. Bombshell (PR: 8)
10. The Two Popes (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Rocketman
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Bombshell (PR: 1)
2. The Irishman (PR: 2)
3. Judy (PR: 3)
4. Dolemite Is My Name (PR: 5)
5. Us (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 4)
7. Joker (PR: 6)
8. Rocketman (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 9)
10. Cats (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
The Aeronauts
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)
2. Little Women (PR: 2)
3. 1917 (PR: 5)
4. The Irishman (PR: 3)
5. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Parasite (PR: 6)
7. Joker (PR: 7)
8. The Two Popes (PR: 10)
9. Cats (PR: 8)
10. Downton Abbey (PR: 9)
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. 1917 (PR: 1)
2. Little Women (PR: 2)
3. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 3)
4. Marriage Story (PR: 5)
5. Joker (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 8)
7. A Hidden Life (PR: 7)
8. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 6)
9. Waves (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Ad Astra (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
The Aeronauts
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Into the Unknown” from Frozen II (PR: 1)
2. “(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again” from Rocketman (PR: 2)
3. “Stand Up” from Harriet (PR: 4)
4. “Beautiful Ghosts” from Cats (PR: 3)
5. “Speechless” from Aladdin (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Spirit” from The Lion King (PR: 5)
7. “I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away” from Toy Story 4 (PR: 10)
8. “Daily Battles” from Motherless Brooklyn (PR: 6)
9. “Glasgow” from Wild Rose (PR: Not Ranked)
10. “Together From Afar” from How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
“Show Yourself” from Frozen II
Best Sound Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. 1917 (PR: 2)
2. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 1)
3. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 3)
4. Avengers: Endgame (PR: 5)
5. Ad Astra (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Rocketman (PR: 6)
7. The Irishman (PR: 7)
8. Joker (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 8)
10. Cats (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
The Aeronauts
Best Sound Mixing
Predicted Nominees:
1. 1917 (PR: 1)
2. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 2)
3. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 3)
4. Avengers: Endgame (PR: 6)
5. Rocketman (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ad Astra (PR: 5)
7. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 7)
8. Cats (PR: 8)
9. The Irishman (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Joker (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Judy
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Irishman (PR: 1)
2. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 2)
3. Avengers: Endgame (PR: 3)
4. The Lion King (PR: 4)
5. The Aeronauts (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ad Astra (PR: 6)
7. 1917 (PR: 10)
8. Alita: Battle Angel (PR: 8)
9. Gemini Man (PR: 7)
10. Aladdin (PR: 9)
And this all equates to these pictures nabbing the following numbers of nods:
10 Nominations
The Irishman
9 Nominations
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
8 Nominations
1917
7 Nominations
Little Women, Marriage Story
5 Nominations
Joker, Parasite
4 Nominations
Bombshell, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, The Two Popes
3 Nominations
Avengers: Endgame, Ford v Ferrari, Jojo Rabbit, Rocketman
2 Nominations
Dolemite Is My Name, The Farewell, Frozen II, Harriet, Judy, The Lighthouse, Pain and Glory
1 Nomination
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, Ad Astra, The Aeronauts, Aladdin, American Factory, And Then We Danced, Apollo 11, Cats, Downton Abbey, For Sama, How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World, Hustlers, I Lost My Body, Les Miserables, The Lion King, Maiden, Monos, One Child Nation, Toy Story 4, Us, Weathering with You
The pleasing box office performance of Ford v Ferrari assists in putting it back in my top ten predicted Best Picture guesses. It does so by displacing Bombshell, which I still certainly consider to be a very viable candidate.
While my five Best Actor estimates remains the same, this is the most competitive field in ages and that’s without official advance word on Paul Walter Hauser in Richard Jewell (which screens this week). I truly believe all ten listed thespians could get in.
I’m starting to feel that the never nominated Scarlett Johansson is going to a double nominee. I’ve vaulted her into the top 5 for Supporting Actress for Jojo Rabbit, in addition to her already likely nod in lead for Marriage Story. In Supporting, she gets in over Annette Bening in The Report.
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Irishman (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)
3. Parasite (PR: 3)
4. Marriage Story (PR: 4)
5. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 5)
6. 1917 (PR: 7)
7. Little Women (PR: 6)
8. Joker (PR: 10)
9. The Two Popes (PR: 8)
10. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 11)
Other Possibilities:
11. Bombshell (PR: 9)
12. The Farewell (PR: 12)
13. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 13)
14. Rocketman (PR: 14)
15. Waves (PR: 15)
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Martin Scorsese, The Irishman (PR: 1)
2. Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 3)
3. Bong Joon-Ho, Parasite (PR: 2)
4. Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story (PR: 4)
5. Sam Mendes, 1917 (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Greta Gerwig, Little Women (PR: 6)
7. James Mangold, Ford v Ferrari (PR: 8)
8. Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit (PR: 7)
9. Todd Phillips, Joker (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Fernando Meirelles, The Two Popes (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Lulu Wang, The Farewell
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Renee Zellweger, Judy (PR: 1)
2. Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story (PR: 2)
3. Charlize Theron, Bombshell (PR: 3)
4. Saoirse Ronan, Little Women (PR: 4)
5. Cynthia Erivo, Harriet (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Awkwafina, The Farewell (PR: 6)
7. Lupita Nyong’o, Us (PR: 7)
8. Alfre Woodard, Clemency (PR: 8)
9. Elisabeth Moss, Her Smell (PR: 9)
10. Jodie Turner-Smith, Queen and Slim (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Felicity Jones, The Aeronauts
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Adam Driver, Marriage Story (PR: 1)
2. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker (PR: 2)
3. Robert De Niro, The Irishman (PR: 3)
4. Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes (PR: 5)
5. Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory (PR: 6)
7. Taron Egerton, Rocketman (PR: 8)
8. Eddie Murphy, Dolemite Is My Name (PR: 7)
9. Christian Bale, Ford v Ferrari (PR: 9)
10. Adam Sandler, Uncut Gems (PR: 10)
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Laura Dern, Marriage Story (PR: 1)
2. Margot Robbie, Bombshell (PR: 3)
3. Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers (PR: 2)
4. Florence Pugh, Little Women (PR: 4)
5. Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Zhou Shuzhen, The Farewell (PR: 6)
7. Annette Bening, The Report (PR: 5)
8. Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey (PR: 8)
9. Thomasin McKenzie, Jojo Rabbit (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Margot Robbie, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Nicole Kidman, Bombshell
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)
2. Al Pacino, The Irishman (PR: 2)
3. Willem Dafoe, The Lighthouse (PR: 4)
4. Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 3)
5. Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Shia LaBeouf, Honey Boy (PR: 6)
7. Joe Pesci, The Irishman (PR: 7)
8. Song Kang-Ho, Parasite (PR: 8)
9. Sterling K. Brown, Waves (PR: 10)
10. Jamie Foxx, Just Mercy (PR: 9)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Irishman (PR: 1)
2. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 2)
3. Little Women (PR: 3)
4. The Two Popes (PR: 4)
5. Joker (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 5)
7. Just Mercy (PR: 7)
8. Richard Jewell (PR: 8)
9. Hustlers (PR: 10)
10. Downton Abbey (PR: 9)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Marriage Story (PR: 1)
2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)
3. Parasite (PR: 3)
4. The Farewell (PR: 4)
5. Pain and Glory (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Bombshell (PR: 6)
7. Knives Out (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Booksmart (PR: 7)
9. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 9)
10. Waves (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Honey Boy
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Parasite (PR: 1)
2. Pain and Glory (PR: 2)
3. Les Miserables (PR: 3)
4. And Then We Danced (PR: 7)
5. Beanpole (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Invisible Life (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Atlantics (PR: 4)
8. Monos (PR: 6)
9. Those Who Remained (PR: 9)
10. A White, White Day (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Papicha
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Toy Story 4 (PR: 1)
2. Frozen II (PR: 2)
3. How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World (PR: 3)
4. I Lost My Body (PR: 4)
5. Weathering with You (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Abominable (PR: 6)
7. Missing Link (PR: 7)
8. Klaus (PR: 9)
9. Bunuel in the Labyrinth of the Turtles (PR: 8)
10. Funan (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Spies in Disguise
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. American Factory (PR: 1)
2. One Child Nation (PR: 2)
3. The Cave (PR: 3)
4. Honeyland (PR: 7)
5. Apollo 11 (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Maiden (PR: 4)
7. The Biggest Little Farm (PR: 6)
8. Sea of Shadows (PR: 10)
9. The Edge of Democracy (PR: 9)
10. Knock Down the House (PR: 8)
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. 1917 (PR: 1)
2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 3)
3. The Irishman (PR: 2)
4. The Lighthouse (PR: 4)
5. Joker (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ad Astra (PR: 8)
7. A Hidden Life (PR: 7)
8. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 6)
9. Parasite (PR: 9)
10. Little Women (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Marriage Story
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)
2. Little Women (PR: 5)
3. Downton Abbey (PR: 2)
4. Dolemite Is My Name (PR: 4)
5. Rocketman (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Irishman (PR: 6)
7. The Aeronauts (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 8)
9. Cats (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Judy (PR: 7)
Dropped Out:
Joker
Dumbo
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Irishman (PR: 1)
2. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 2)
3. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 3)
4. 1917 (PR: 6)
5. Parasite (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Marriage Story (PR: 5)
7. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 8)
8. Bombshell (PR: 7)
9. Joker (PR: 9)
10. Rocketman (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Avengers: Endgame
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Bombshell (PR: 1)
2. The Irishman (PR: 2)
3. Judy (PR: 3)
4. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 4)
5. Dolemite Is My Name (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joker (PR: 7)
7. Us (PR: 10)
8. The Aeronauts (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 8)
10. Cats (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Rocketman
The Two Popes
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)
2. Little Women (PR: 3)
3. The Irishman (PR: 2)
4. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 6)
5. 1917 (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Parasite (PR: 5)
7. Joker (PR: 9)
8. Cats (PR: 7)
9. Downton Abbey (PR: 8)
10. The Two Popes (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Aeronauts
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. 1917 (PR: 1)
2. Little Women (PR: 2)
3. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 3)
4. Joker (PR: 5)
5. Marriage Story (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 8)
7. A Hidden Life (PR: 7)
8. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 6)
9. The Aeronauts (PR: 9)
10. Ad Astra (PR: 10)
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Into the Unknown” from Frozen II (PR: 1)
2. “(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again” from Rocketman (PR: 2)
3. “Beautiful Ghosts” from Cats (PR: 4)
4. “Stand Up” from Harriet (PR: 3)
5. “Spirit” from The Lion King (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Daily Battles” from Motherless Brooklyn (PR: 7)
7. “Speechless” from Aladdin (PR: 6)
8. “Show Yourself” from Frozen II (PR: Not Ranked)
9. “Together From Afar” from How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World (PR: 9)
10. “I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away” from Toy Story 4 (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
“I’m Standing with You” from Breakthrough
Best Sound Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 2)
2. 1917 (PR: 1)
3. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 3)
4. Ad Astra (PR: 5)
5. Avengers: Endgame (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Rocketman (PR: 6)
7. The Irishman (PR: 8)
8. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 7)
9. Cats (PR: 9)
10. The Aeronauts (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Richard Jewell
Best Sound Mixing
Predicted Nominees:
1. 1917 (PR: 1)
2. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 2)
3. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 3)
4. Rocketman (PR: 4)
5. Ad Astra (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Avengers: Endgame (PR: 5)
7. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 7)
8. Cats (PR: 8)
9. Joker (PR: 10)
10. Judy (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Irishman
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Irishman (PR: 1)
2. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 2)
3. Avengers: Endgame (PR: 4)
4. The Lion King (PR: 3)
5. The Aeronauts (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ad Astra (PR: 6)
7. Gemini Man (PR: 7)
8. Alita: Battle Angel (PR: 9)
9. Aladdin (PR: Not Ranked)
10. 1917 (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Dumbo
And that equates to the following features obtaining these numbers come nomination time:
10 Nominations
The Irishman, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
8 Nominations
1917
7 Nominations
Little Women, Marriage Story
5 Nominations
Joker, Parasite
4 Nominations
Ford v Ferrari, Jojo Rabbit, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, The Two Popes
3 Nominations
Bombshell, Rocketman
2 Nominations
Ad Astra, Avengers: Endgame, Dolemite Is My Name, Frozen II, Harriet, Judy, The Lighthouse, The Lion King, Pain and Glory
1 Nomination
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, The Aeronauts, American Factory, And Then We Danced, Apollo 11, Beanpole, Cats, The Cave, Downton Abbey, The Farewell, Honeyland, How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World, Hustlers, I Lost My Body, Les Miserables, One Child Nation, Toy Story 4, Weathering with You
3. Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)
4. Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story (PR: 5)
5. Sam Mendes, 1917 (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Greta Gerwig, Little Women (PR: 6)
7. Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit (PR: 7)
8. James Mangold, Ford v Ferrari (PR: 9)
9. Fernando Meirelles, The Two Popes (PR: 8)
10. Lulu Wang, The Farewell (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Todd Phillips, Joker
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Adam Driver, Marriage Story (PR: 1)
2. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker (PR: 2)
3. Robert De Niro, The Irishman (PR: 6)
4. Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 4)
5. Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory (PR: 8)
7. Eddie Murphy, Dolemite Is My Name (PR: 5)
8. Taron Egerton, Rocketman (PR: 7)
9. Christian Bale, Ford v Ferrari (PR: 9)
10. Adam Sandler, Uncut Gems (PR: 10)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Renee Zellweger, Judy (PR: 1)
2. Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story (PR: 3)
3. Charlize Theron, Bombshell (PR: 2)
4. Saoirse Ronan, Little Women (PR: 4)
5. Cynthia Erivo, Harriet (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Awkwafina, The Farewell (PR: 6)
7. Lupita Nyong’o, Us (PR: 8)
8. Alfre Woodard, Clemency (PR: 7)
9. Elisabeth Moss, Her Smell (PR: 9)
10. Felicity Jones, The Aeronauts (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Helen Mirren, The Good Liar
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Laura Dern, Marriage Story (PR: 1)
2. Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers (PR: 2)
3. Margot Robbie, Bombshell (PR: 3)
4. Florence Pugh, Little Women (PR: 4)
5. Annette Bening, The Report (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Shuzhen Zhou, The Farewell (PR: 6)
7. Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit (PR: 7)
8. Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey (PR: 9)
9. Margot Robbie, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 10)
10. Nicole Kidman, Bombshell (PR: 8)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)
2. Al Pacino, The Irishman (PR: 2)
3. Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 4)
4. Willem Dafoe, The Lighthouse (PR: 5)
5. Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Shia LaBeouf, Honey Boy (PR: 8)
7. Joe Pesci, The Irishman (PR: 6)
8. Song Kang-Ho, Parasite (PR: Not Rankled)
9. Jamie Foxx, Just Mercy (PR: 7)
10. Sterling K. Brown, Waves (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
John Lithgow, Bombshell
Wesley Snipes, Dolemite Is My Name
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Marriage Story (PR: 2)
2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)
3. Parasite (PR: 3)
4. The Farewell (PR: 4)
5. Pain and Glory (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Bombshell (PR: 5)
7. Booksmart (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Waves (PR: 8)
9. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 7)
10. Honey Boy (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
1917
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Irishman (PR: 1)
2. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 2)
3. Little Women (PR: 4)
4. The Two Popes (PR: 3)
5. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joker (PR: 5)
7. Just Mercy (PR: 7)
8. Richard Jewell (PR: 8)
9. Downton Abbey (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Hustlers (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Judy
Dark Waters
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Parasite (PR: 1)
2. Pain and Glory (PR: 2)
3. Les Miserables (PR: 3)
4. Atlantics (PR: 7)
5. Beanpole (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Monos (PR: 4)
7. And Then We Danced (PR: 6)
8. A White, White Day (PR: 9)
9. Those Who Remained (PR: 8)
10. Papicha (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Tel Aviv on Fire
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Toy Story 4 (PR: 1)
2. Frozen II (PR: 2)
3. How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World (PR: 3)
4. I Lost My Body (PR: 5)
5. Weathering with You (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Abominable (PR: 8)
7. Missing Link (PR: 7)
8. Bunuel in the Labyrinth of the Turtles (PR: 6)
9. Klaus (PR: 9)
10. Spies in Disguise (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Funan
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. American Factory (PR: 1)
2. One Child Nation (PR: 2)
3. The Cave (PR: 5)
4. Maiden (PR: 3)
5. Apollo 11 (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Biggest Little Farm (PR: 6)
7. Honeyland (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Knock Down the House (PR: 7)
9. The Edge of Democracy (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Sea of Shadows (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
For Sama
Diego Maradona
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. 1917 (PR: 1)
2. The Irishman (PR: 2)
3. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 3)
4. The Lighthouse (PR: 5)
5. Joker (PR: 10)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 6)
7. A Hidden Life (PR: 4)
8. Ad Astra (PR: 8)
9. Parasite (PR: 7)
10. Marriage Story (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Portrait of a Lady on Fire
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)
2. Downton Abbey (PR: 4)
3. Rocketman (PR: 5)
4. Dolemite Is My Name (PR: 2)
5. Little Women (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Irishman (PR: 7)
7. Judy (PR: 6)
8. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 9)
9. Joker (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Dumbo (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Cats
Aladdin
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Irishman (PR: 1)
2. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 2)
3. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 3)
4. Parasite (PR: 5)
5. Marriage Story (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. 1917 (PR: 4)
7. Bombshell (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 7)
9. Joker (PR: 9)
10. Avengers: Endgame (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Rocketman
Knives Out
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Bombshell (PR: 1)
2. The Irishman (PR: 2)
3. Judy (PR: 3)
4. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 5)
5. Dolemite Is My Name (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Rocketman (PR: 6)
7. Joker (PR: 10)
8. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 9)
9. The Two Popes (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Us (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Cats
The Aeronauts
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)
2. The Irishman (PR: 2)
3. Little Women (PR: 4)
4. 1917 (PR: 5)
5. Parasite (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 3)
7. Cats (PR: 7)
8. Downton Abbey (PR: 9)
9. Joker (PR: 10)
10. The Aeronauts (PR: 8)
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. 1917 (PR: 1)
2. Little Women (PR: 2)
3. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 3)
4. Marriage Story (PR: 4)
5. Joker (PR: 10)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 5)
7. A Hidden Life (PR: 6)
8. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 8)
9. The Aeronauts (PR: 7)
10. Ad Astra (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Waves
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Into the Unknown” from Frozen II (PR: 1)
2. “(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again” from Rocketman (PR: 2)
3. “Stand Up” from Harriet (PR: 4)
4. “Beautiful Ghosts” from Cats (PR: 3)
5. “Spirit” from The Lion King (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Speechless” from Aladdin (PR: 6)
7. “Daily Battles” from Motherless Brooklyn (PR: Not Ranked)
8. “I’m Standing With You” from Breakthrough (PR: 5)
9. “Together From Afar” from How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World (PR: Not Ranked)
10. “I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away” from Toy Story 4 (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
“The Ballad of the Lonesome Cowboy” from Toy Story 4
“One Little Soldier” from Bombshell
Best Sound Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. 1917 (PR: 2)
2. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 1)
3. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 3)
4. Avengers: Endgame (PR: 6)
5. Ad Astra (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Rocketman (PR: 5)
7. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 4)
8. The Irishman (PR: 7)
9. Cats (PR: 9)
10. Richard Jewell (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Aeronauts
Best Sound Mixing
Predicted Nominees:
1. 1917 (PR: 3)
2. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 1)
3. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 2)
4. Rocketman (PR: 4)
5. Avengers: Endgame (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ad Astra (PR: 9)
7. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 6)
8. Cats (PR: 10)
9. The Irishman (PR: 7)
10. Joker (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Judy
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Irishman (PR: 2)
2. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 1)
3. The Lion King (PR: 4)
4. Avengers: Endgame (PR: 3)
5. The Aeronauts (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ad Astra (PR: 8)
7. Gemini Man (PR: 7)
8. 1917 (PR: 9)
9. Alita: Battle Angel (PR: 6)
10. Dumbo (PR: 10)
And that all equates to these pictures getting the following number of nominations:
10 Nominations
The Irishman, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
8 Nominations
Marriage Story
7 Nominations
1917, Little Women
6 Nominations
Parasite
4 Nominations
Bombshell, Joker, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, The Two Popes
3 Nominations
Avengers: Endgame, Ford v Ferrari, Rocketman
2 Nominations
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, Dolemite Is My Name, Frozen II, Harriet, Jojo Rabbit, Judy, The Lighthouse, The Lion King, Pain and Glory
1 Nomination
Ad Astra, The Aeronauts, American Factory, Apollo 11, Atlantics, Beanpole, Cats, The Cave, Downton Abbey, The Farewell, How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World, Hustlers, I Lost My Body, Les Miserables, Maiden, One Child Nation, The Report, Toy Story 4, Weathering with You
This week’s gathering of my Oscar predictions brings changes in some big categories:
Joker has been at the bottom of my ten Best Picture nominees since its opening, but it drops to #11 in favor of Ford v Ferrari. On the positive side for the film, Joker is back in my Adapted Screenplay estimates over A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood.
Harriet is out this weekend and it’s coming in at the higher range of box office expectations. I’m putting Cynthia Erivo back in my top five and that leaves out Alfre Woodard’s work in Clemency.
Dolemite Is My Name premiered on Netflix a week ago and that’s opened up a floodgate of praise for Eddie Murphy. We shall see if the momentum continues, but I now have vaulted him into my Best Actor nominees. That drops out Robert De Niro in The Irishman. Truth be told, this particular race is absolutely packed and I believe only Adam Driver is safe right now.
Let’s get to it!
BEST PICTURE
Predicted Nominees:
1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. The Irishman (PR: 2)
3. Marriage Story (PR: 3)
4. Parasite (PR: 4)
5. 1917 (PR: 6)
6. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 5)
7. Little Women (PR: 9)
8. The Two Popes (PR: 8)
9. Bombshell (PR: 7)
10. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 11)
Other Possibilities:
11. Joker (PR: 10)
12. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 13)
13. The Farewell (PR: 12)
14. Rocketman (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Waves (PR: 14)
Dropped Out:
Richard Jewell
BEST DIRECTOR
Predicted Nominees:
1. Martin Scorsese, The Irishman (PR: 1)
2. Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)
3. Bong Joon-Ho, Parasite (PR: 3)
4. Sam Mendes, 1917 (PR: 4)
5. Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Greta Gerwig, Little Women (PR: 6)
7. Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit (PR: 7)
8. Fernando Meirelles, The Two Popes (PR: Not Ranked)
9. James Mangold, Ford v Ferrari (PR: 10)
10. Todd Phillips, Joker (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Jay Roach, Bombshell
BEST ACTRESS
Predicted Nominees:
1. Renee Zellweger, Judy (PR: 1)
2. Charlize Theron, Bombshell (PR: 2)
3. Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story (PR: 3)
4. Saoirse Ronan, Little Women (PR: 4)
5. Cynthia Erivo, Harriet (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Awkwafina, The Farewell (PR: 6)
7. Alfre Woodard, Clemency (PR: 5)
8. Lupita Nyong’o, Us (PR: 8)
9. Elisabeth Moss, Her Smell (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Helen Mirren, The Good Liar (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Isabelle Huppert, Frankie
BEST ACTOR
Predicted Nominees:
1. Adam Driver, Marriage Story (PR: 1)
2. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker (PR: 2)
3. Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes (PR: 3)
4. Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 4)
5. Eddie Murphy, Dolemite Is My Name (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
6. Robert De Niro, The Irishman (PR: 5)
7. Taron Egerton, Rocketman (PR: 7)
8. Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory (PR: 6)
9. Christian Bale, Ford v Ferrari (PR: 8)
10. Adam Sandler, Uncut Gems (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Paul Walter Hauser, Richard Jewell
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Predicted Nominees:
1. Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)
2. Al Pacino, The Irishman (PR: 2)
3. Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes (PR: 3)
4. Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 4)
5. Willem Dafoe, The Lighthouse (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joe Pesci, The Irishman (PR: 6)
7. Jamie Foxx, Just Mercy (PR: 7)
8. Shia LaBeouf, Honey Boy (PR: Not Ranked)
9. John Lithgow, Bombshell (PR: 8)
10. Wesley Snipes, Dolemite Is My Name (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit
Sterling K. Brown, Waves
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Predicted Nominees:
1. Laura Dern, Marriage Story (PR: 1)
2. Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers (PR: 4)
3. Margot Robbie, Bombshell (PR: 2)
4. Florence Pugh, Little Women (PR: 3)
5. Annette Bening, The Report (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Shuzhen Zhou, The Farewell (PR: 6)
7. Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit (PR: 7)
8. Nicole Kidman, Bombshell (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey (PR: 8)
10. Margot Robbie, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Thomasin McKenzie, Jojo Rabbit
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Predicted Nominees:
1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)
2. Marriage Story (PR: 2)
3. Parasite (PR: 3)
4. The Farewell (PR: 4)
5. Bombshell (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Pain and Glory (PR: 6)
7. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 9)
8. Waves (PR: 7)
9. 1917 (PR: 8)
10. Honey Boy (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Knives Out
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Irishman (PR: 1)
2. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 2)
3. The Two Popes (PR: 4)
4. Little Women (PR: 3)
5. Joker (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 5)
7. Just Mercy (PR: 7)
8. Richard Jewell (PR: 10)
9. Judy (PR: 8)
10. Dark Waters (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Downton Abbey
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM
Predicted Nominees:
1. Parasite (PR: 1)
2. Pain and Glory (PR: 2)
3. Les Miserables (PR: 3)
4. Monos (PR: 5)
5. Beanpole (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. And Then We Danced (PR: 8)
7. Atlantics (PR: 6)
8. Those Who Remained (PR: 4)
9. A White, White Day (PR: 9)
10. Tel Aviv on Fire (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Traitor
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Predicted Nominees:
1. Toy Story 4 (PR: 1)
2. Frozen II (PR: 2)
3. How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World (PR: 3)
4. Weathering with You (PR: 4)
5. I Lost My Body (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Bunuel in the Labyrinth of the Turtles (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Missing Link (PR: 6)
8. Abominable (PR: 7)
9. Klaus (PR: 10)
10. Funan (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Okko’s Inn
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Predicted Nominees:
1. American Factory (PR: 1)
2. One Child Nation (PR: 3)
3. Maiden (PR: 5)
4. Apollo 11 (PR: 2)
5. The Cave (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Biggest Little Farm (PR: 6)
7. Knock Down the House (PR: 8)
8. For Sama (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Sea of Shadows (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Diego Maradona (PR: 7)
Dropped Out:
The Edge of Democracy
Western Stars
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Predicted Nominees:
1. 1917 (PR: 2)
2. The Irishman (PR: 1)
3. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 3)
4. A Hidden Life (PR: 4)
5. The Lighthouse (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 9)
7. Parasite (PR: 8)
8. Ad Astra (PR: 6)
9. Joker (PR: 7)
10. Portrait of a Lady on Fire (PR: 10)
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Predicted Nominees:
1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)
2. Dolemite Is My Name (PR: 3)
3. Little Women (PR: 2)
4. Downton Abbey (PR: 4)
5. Rocketman (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Judy (PR: 7)
7. The Irishman (PR: 6)
8. Cats (Not Ranked)
9. Jojo Rabbit (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Aladdin (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
1917
Joker
Maleficent: Mistress of Evil
BEST FILM EDITING
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Irishman (PR: 1)
2. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 3)
3. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)
4. 1917 (PR: 5)
5. Parasite (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Marriage Story (PR: 4)
7. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 7)
8. Rocketman (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Joker (PR: 10)
10. Knives Out (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Avengers: Endgame
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Predicted Nominees:
1. Bombshell (PR: 1)
2. The Irishman (PR: 2)
3. Judy (PR: 4)
4. Dolemite Is My Name (PR: 3)
5. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Rocketman (PR: 6)
7. Cats (PR: 10)
8. The Aeronauts (PR: 8)
9. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Joker (PR: 5)
Dropped Out:
Little Women
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Predicted Nominees:
1. 1917 (PR: 1)
2. Little Women (PR: 3)
3. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 2)
4. Marriage Story (PR: 4)
5. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. A Hidden Life (PR: 5)
7. The Aeronauts (PR: 6)
8. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 7)
9. Waves (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Joker (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Ad Astra
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Into the Unknown” from Frozen II (PR: 1)
2. “(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again” from Rocketman (PR: 2)
3. “Beautiful Ghosts” from Cats (PR: 3)
4. “Stand Up” from Harriet (PR: 4)
5. “I’m Standing With You” from Breakthrough (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Speechless” from Aladdin (PR: 7)
7. “Spirit” from The Lion King (PR: 5)
8. “I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away” from Toy Story 4 (PR: 6)
9. “The Ballad of the Lonesome Cowboy” from Toy Story 4 (PR: 8)
10. “One Little Soldier” from Bombshell (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
”Daily Battles” from Motherless Brooklyn
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Predicted Nominees:
1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)
2. The Irishman (PR: 2)
3. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 5)
4. Little Women (PR: 3)
5. 1917 (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Parasite (PR: 6)
7. Cats (PR: 7)
8. The Aeronauts (PR: 9)
9. Downton Abbey (PR: 8)
10. Joker (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
BEST SOUND EDITING
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 1)
2. 1917 (PR: 3)
3. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 2)
4. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 4)
5. Rocketman (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Avengers: Endgame (PR: 7)
7. The Irishman (PR: 6)
8. Ad Astra (PR: 5)
9. Cats (PR: 9)
10. The Aeronauts (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Us
BEST SOUND MIXING
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 1)
2. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 2)
3. 1917 (PR: 3)
4. Rocketman (PR: 6)
5. Avengers: Endgame (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 7)
7. The Irishman (PR: 8)
8. Judy (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Ad Astra (PR: 5)
10. Cats (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Joker
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Predicted Nominees:
1. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 1)
2. The Irishman (PR: 3)
3. Avengers: Endgame (PR: 2)
4. The Lion King (PR: 4)
5. The Aeronauts (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Alita: Battle Angel (PR: 5)
7. Gemini Man (PR: 8)
8. Ad Astra (PR: 7)
9. 1917 (PR: 9)
10. Dumbo (PR: 10)
And that equates to the following number of nominations going to these pictures:
11 Nominations
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
9 Nominations
The Irishman
8 Nominations
1917
7 Nominations
Little Women, Marriage Story
5 Nominations
Bombshell, Ford v Ferrari, Parasite
4 Nominations
Rocketman, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, The Two Popes
3 Nominations
Dolemite Is My Name, Jojo Rabbit
2 Nominations
Avengers: Endgame, Frozen II, Harriet, Joker, Judy, The Lighthouse
1 Nomination
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, The Aeronauts, A Hidden Life, American Factory, Apollo 11, Beanpole, Breakthrough, Cats, The Cave, Downton Abbey, The Farewell, How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World, Hustlers, I Lost My Body, Les Miserables, The Lion King, Maiden, Monos, One Child Nation, Pain and Glory, The Report, Toy Story 4, Weathering with You
My latest round of Oscar predictions brings the following developments:
Little Women has held industry screenings and greatly improved its chances at multiple nominations. It’s back in my predicted ten Best Picture contenders and that’s bad news for Ford v Ferrari.
Speaking of Ferrari, it was announced that Christian Bale will contend for Best Actor and not supporting, which is where I’ve had him predicted for weeks. This designation significantly decreases his shot and I have him ranked in 8th. The benefactor in Supporting Actor: Willem Dafoe for The Lighthouse.
Back to Little Women. The standout is said to be Florence Pugh, so I now have her down for Supporting Actress, knocking out Shuzhen Zhou in The Farewell.
Speaking of The Farewell, my fifth spot in Actress continues to change as that picture’s Awkwafina slides to sixth with Alfre Woodard (Clemency) in.
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood nabs the #1 slot in Picture over The Irishman. It’s a razor thin margin.
Let’s get to it!
BEST PICTURE
Predicted Nominees:
1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Previous Ranking: 2)
2. The Irishman (PR: 1)
3. Marriage Story (PR: 4)
4. Parasite (PR: 3)
5. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 6)
6. 1917 (PR: 5)
7. Bombshell (PR: 9)
8. The Two Popes (PR: 8)
9. Little Women (PR: 12)
10. Joker (PR: 10)
Other Possibilities:
11. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 7)
12. The Farewell (PR: 11)
13. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 13)
14. Waves (PR: 14)
15. Richard Jewell (PR: 15)
BEST DIRECTOR
Predicted Nominees:
1. Martin Scorsese, The Irishman (PR: 1)
2. Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 3)
3. Bong Joon-Ho, Parasite (PR: 2)
4. Sam Mendes, 1917 (PR: 4)
5. Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Greta Gerwig, Little Women (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit (PR: 6)
8. Jay Roach, Bombshell (PR: 10)
9. Todd Phillips, Joker (PR: Not Ranked)
10. James Mangold, Ford v Ferrari (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Lulu Wang, The Farewell
Pedro Almodovar, Pain and Glory
BEST ACTOR
Predicted Nominees:
1. Adam Driver, Marriage Story (PR: 1)
2. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker (PR: 2)
3. Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes (PR: 3)
4. Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 5)
5. Robert De Niro, The Irishman (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory (PR: 6)
7. Taron Egerton, Rocketman (PR: 7)
8. Christian Bale, Ford v Ferrari (PR: Not Ranked – moved from Supporting)
9. Eddie Murphy, Dolemite Is My Name (PR: 8)
10. Paul Walter Hauser, Richard Jewell (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Adam Sandler, Uncut Gems
BEST ACTRESS
Predicted Nominees:
1. Renee Zellweger, Judy (PR: 1)
2. Charlize Theron, Bombshell (PR: 2)
3. Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story (PR: 3)
4. Saoirse Ronan, Little Women (PR: 4)
5. Alfre Woodard, Clemency (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Awkwafina, The Farewell (PR: 5)
7. Cynthia Erivo, Harriet (PR: 7)
8. Lupita Nyong’o, Us (PR: 8)
9. Helen Mirren, The Good Liar (PR: 9)
10. Isabelle Huppert, Frankie (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jodie Turner-Smith, Queen and Slim
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Predicted Nominees:
1. Laura Dern, Marriage Story (PR: 1)
2. Margot Robbie, Bombshell (PR: 3)
3. Florence Pugh, Little Women (PR: 8)
4. Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers (PR: 2)
5. Annette Bening, The Report (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Shuzhen Zhou, The Farewell (PR: 5)
7. Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey (PR: 6)
9. Margot Robbie, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 7)
10. Thomasin McKenzie, Jojo Rabbit (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Meryl Streep, Little Women
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Predicted Nominees:
1. Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)
2. Al Pacino, The Irishman (PR: 2)
3. Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes (PR: 4)
4. Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 3)
5. Willem Dafoe, The Lighthouse (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joe Pesci, The Irishman (PR: 7)
7. Jamie Foxx, Just Mercy (PR: 8)
8. John Lithgow, Bombshell (PR: 9)
9. Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit (PR: 10)
10. Sterling K. Brown, Waves (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Christian Bale, Ford v Ferrari (moved to lead)
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Irishman (PR: 1)
2. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 2)
3. Little Women (PR: 6)
4. The Two Popes (PR: 3)
5. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joker (PR: 5)
7. Just Mercy (PR: 7)
8. Judy (PR: 8)
9. Downton Abbey (PR: 9)
10. Richard Jewell (PR: 10)
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Predicted Nominees:
1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)
2. Marriage Story (PR: 1)
3. Parasite (PR: 3)
4. The Farewell (PR: 4)
5. Bombshell (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Pain and Glory (PR: 8)
7. Waves (PR: 6)
8. 1917 (PR: 7)
9. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 10)
10. Knives Out (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Booksmart
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM
Predicted Nominees:
1. Parasite (PR: 1)
2. Pain and Glory (PR: 2)
3. Les Miserables (PR: 4)
4. Those Who Remained (PR: 6)
5. Monos (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Atlantics (PR: 3)
7. Beanpole (PR: 7)
8. And Then We Danced (PR: 8)
9. A White, White Day (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Traitor (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Papicha
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Predicted Nominees:
1. Toy Story 4 (PR: 1)
2. Frozen II (PR: 2)
3. How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World (PR: 3)
4. Weathering with You (PR: 5)
5. I Lost My Body (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Missing Link (PR: 4)
7. Abominable (PR: 7)
8. Funan (PR: 9)
9. Okko’s Inn (PR: 10)
10. Klaus (PR: 8)
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Predicted Nominees:
1. American Factory (PR: 2)
2. Apollo 11 (PR: 1)
3. One Child Nation (PR: 4)
4. The Cave (PR: 5)
5. Maiden (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Biggest Little Farm (PR: 6)
7. Diego Maradona (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Knock Down the House (PR: 10)
9. The Edge of Democracy (PR: 7)
10. Western Stars (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Aquarela
Rolling Thunder Revue: A Bob Dylan Story By Martin Scorsese
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Irishman (PR: 2)
2. 1917 (PR: 1)
3. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 3)
4. A Hidden Life (PR: Not Ranked)
5. The Lighthouse (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ad Astra (PR: 6)
7. Joker (PR: 9)
8. Parasite (PR: 4)
9. Portrait of a Lady on Fire (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 7)
Dropped Out:
Marriage Story
Jojo Rabbit
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Predicted Nominees:
1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)
2. Little Women (PR: 3)
3. Dolemite Is My Name (PR: 4)
4. Downton Abbey (PR: 1)
5. Rocketman (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Irishman (PR: 7)
7. Judy (PR: 6)
8. 1917 (PR: 9)
9. Joker (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Maleficent: Mistress of Evil (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Aladdin
Jojo Rabbit
BEST FILM EDITING
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Irishman (PR: 1)
2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)
3. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 4)
4. Marriage Story (PR: 5)
5. 1917 (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Parasite (PR: 6)
7. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 7)
8. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 9)
9. Avengers: Endgame (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Joker (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Ad Astra
BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
Predicted Nominees:
1. Bombshell (PR: 2)
2. The Irishman (PR: 1)
3. Dolemite Is My Name (PR: 4)
4. Judy (PR: 3)
5. Joker (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Rocketman (PR: 9)
7. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 7)
8. The Aeronauts (PR: 8)
9. Little Women (PR: 5)
10. Cats (PR: 10)
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Predicted Nominees:
1. 1917 (PR: 1
2. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 2)
3. Little Women (PR: 3)
4. Marriage Story (PR: 4)
5. A Hidden Life (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Aeronauts (PR: 6)
7. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 5)
8. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 7)
9. Joker (PR: 9)
10. Ad Astra
Dropped Out:
Waves
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Into the Unknown” from Frozen II (PR: 1)
2. “(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again” from Rocketman (PR: 2)
3. “Beautiful Ghosts” from Cats (PR: Not Ranked)
4. “Stand Up” from Harriet (PR: 3)
5. “Spirit” from The Lion King (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. “I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away” from Toy Story 4 (PR: 6)
7. “Speechless” from Aladdin (PR: 5)
8. “The Ballad of the Lonesome Cowboy” from Toy Story 4 (PR: 4)
9. “One Little Soldier” from Bombshell (PR: 8)
10. “Daily Battles” from Motherless Brooklyn (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
”Together From Afar” from How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Predicted Nominees:
1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)
2. The Irishman (PR: 4)
3. Little Women (PR: 5)
4. 1917 (PR: 2)
5. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Parasite (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Cats (PR: 6)
8. Downton Abbey (PR: 10)
9. The Aeronauts (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 7)
Dropped Out:
Ford v Ferrari
Aladdin
BEST SOUND EDITING
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 2)
2. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 3)
3. 1917 (PR: 1)
4. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 8)
5. Ad Astra (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Irishman (PR: 7)
7. Avengers: Endgame (PR: 5)
8. Rocketman (PR: 4)
9. Cats (PR: 9)
10. Us (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Lion King
BEST SOUND MIXING
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 1)
2. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 3)
3. 1917 (PR: 2)
4. Avengers: Endgame (PR: 6)
5. Ad Astra (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Rocketman (PR: 4)
7. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 9)
8. The Irishman (PR: 8)
9. Cats (PR: 7)
10. Joker (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Lion King
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Predicted Nominees:
1. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 2)
2. Avengers: Endgame (PR: 3)
3. The Irishman (PR: 1)
4. The Lion King (PR: 4)
5. Alita: Battle Angel (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Aeronauts (PR: 6)
7. Ad Astra (PR: 8)
8. Gemini Man (PR: 7)
9. 1917 (PR: 9)
10. Dumbo (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Godzilla: King of the Monsters
And that equates to the following films getting the following number of nominations:
10 Nominations
The Irishman, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
8 Nominations
1917, Marriage Story
7 Nominations
Little Women
5 Nominations
Bombshell
4 Nominations
Parasite, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, The Two Popes
3 Nominations
Ford v Ferrari, Jojo Rabbit, Joker
2 Nominations
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, Ad Astra, Avengers: Endgame, Dolemite Is My Name, Frozen II, A Hidden Life, Judy, The Lighthouse, The Lion King, Rocketman
1 Nomination
Alita: Battle Angel, American Factory, Apollo 11, Cats, The Cave, Clemency, Downton Abbey, The Farewell, Harriet, How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World, Hustlers, I Lost My Body, Les Miserables, Maiden, Monos, One Child Nation, Pain and Glory, The Report, Those Who Remained, Toy Story 4, Weathering with You
My weekly Oscar predictions this Thursday brings a whole lot of changes in that I’m including every category covering feature films! Additionally, there’s now only 15 listed possibilities in Best Picture and ten in all other races.
For this format, my projections show The Irishman garnering the most nominations with Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, 1917, and Marriage Story not far behind. Besides the cosmetic changes, here’s what else has transpired in the past seven days:
Bombshell, the true life of Fox News and the downfall of Roger Ailes, had its first industry screenings. The film immediately vaulted itself into contention in Picture, Actress, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, and Original Screenplay (as well as Makeup & Hairstyling).
My inclusion of Bombshell in Best Picture means The Farewell has been taken out with The Two Popes and Joker as other on the bubble entries.
Not only does Charlize Theron’s work in Bombshell enter my Best Actress projections, but she comes in at #2. That drops Cynthia Erivo in Harriet out of the top five for the first time.
Margot Robbie’s performance in the picture puts her in and she bumps… Margot Robbie in Once Upon a Time in Hollywood.
In non Bombshell news, South Korean import Parasite had the best per screen average of 2019 in limited release. It’s the best reviewed movie of the year and its numbers game improves in Picture and Director this week.
BEST PICTURE
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Irishman (PR: 1)
2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)
3. Parasite (PR: 6)
4. Marriage Story (PR: 3)
5. 1917 (PR: 4)
6. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 5)
7. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 7)
8. The Two Popes (PR: 9)
9. Bombshell (PR: 18)
10. Joker (PR: 10)
Other Possibilities:
11. The Farewell (PR: 8)
12. Little Women (PR: 12)
13. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 11)
14. Waves (PR: 13)
15. Richard Jewell (PR: 15)
Dropped Out:
Pain and Glory
Judy
Just Mercy
A Hidden Life
Rocketman
The Report
Booksmart
The Good Liar
Dark Waters
Ad Astra
BEST DIRECTOR
Predicted Nominees:
1. Martin Scorsese, The Irishman (PR: 1)
2. Bong Joon-Ho, Parasite (PR: 4)
3. Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)
4. Sam Mendes, 1917 (PR: 3)
5. Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit (PR: 6)
7. James Mangold, Ford v Ferrari (PR: 8)
8. Lulu Wang, The Farewell (PR: 7)
9. Pedro Almodovar, Pain and Glory (PR: 13)
10. Jay Roach, Bombshell (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Fernando Meirelles, The Two Popes
Greta Gerwig, Little Women
Marielle Heller, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Terrence Malick, A Hidden Life
Todd Phillips, Joker
Clint Eastwood, Richard Jewell
BEST ACTOR
Predicted Nominees:
1. Adam Driver, Marriage Story (PR: 1)
2. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker (PR: 2)
3. Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes (PR: 3)
4. Robert De Niro, The Irishman (PR: 5)
5. Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory (PR: 6)
7. Taron Egerton, Rocketman (PR: 8)
8. Eddie Murphy, Dolemite Is My Name (PR: 7)
9. Paul Walter Hauser, Richard Jewell (PR: 9)
10. Adam Sandler, Uncut Gems (PR: 11)
Dropped Out:
Michael B. Jordan, Just Mercy
Ian McKellen, The Good Liar
Mark Ruffalo, Dark Waters
Brad Pitt, Ad Astra
Robert Pattinson, The Lighthouse
BEST ACTRESS
Predicted Nominees:
1. Renee Zellweger, Judy (PR: 1)
2. Charlize Theron, Bombshell (PR: 7)
3. Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story (PR: 2)
4. Saoirse Ronan, Little Women (PR: 4)
5. Awkwafina, The Farewell (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Alfre Woodard, Clemency (PR: 6)
7. Cynthia Erivo, Harriet (PR: 3)
8. Lupita Nyong’o, Us (PR: 8)
9. Helen Mirren, The Good Liar (PR: 9)
10. Jodie Turner-Smith, Queen and Slim (PR: 11)
Dropped Out:
Isabelle Huppert, Frankie
Beanie Feldstein, Booksmart
Felicity Jones, The Aeronauts
Elisabeth Moss, Her Smell
Julianne Moore, Gloria Bell
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Predicted Nominees:
1. Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)
2. Al Pacino, The Irishman (PR: 2)
3. Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 4)
4. Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes (PR: 3)
5. Christian Bale, Ford v Ferrari (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Willem Dafoe, The Lighthouse (PR: 6)
7. Joe Pesci, The Irishman (PR: 7)
8. Jamie Foxx, Just Mercy (PR: 9)
9. John Lithgow, Bombshell (PR: 13)
10. Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Sterling K. Brown, Waves
Alan Alda, Marriage Story
Shia LaBeouf, Honey Boy
Sam Rockwell, Jojo Rabbit
Zack Gottsagen, The Peanut Butter Falcon
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Predicted Nominees:
1. Laura Dern, Marriage Story (PR: 1)
2. Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers (PR: 2)
3. Margot Robbie, Bombshell (PR: 12)
4. Annette Bening, The Report (PR: 3)
5. Shuzhen Zhou, The Farewell (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey (PR: 6)
7. Margot Robbie, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 4)
8. Florence Pugh, Little Women (PR: 9)
9. Meryl Streep, Little Women (PR: 8)
10. Thomasin McKenzie, Jojo Rabbit (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit
Jennifer Hudson, Cats
Nicole Kidman, Bombshell
Penelope Cruz, Pain and Glory
Da’Vine Joy Randolph, Dolemite Is My Name
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Irishman (PR: 1)
2. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 2)
3. The Two Popes (PR: 3)
4. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 4)
5. Joker (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Little Women (PR: 6)
7. Just Mercy (PR: 8)
8. Judy (PR: 7)
9. Downton Abbey (PR: 9)
10. Richard Jewell (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
The Good Liar
Dark Waters
Hustlers
Toy Story 4
Luce
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Predicted Nominees:
1. Marriage Story (PR: 1)
2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)
3. Parasite (PR: 3)
4. The Farewell (PR: 4)
5. Bombshell (PR: 10)
Other Possibilities:
6. Waves (PR: 6)
7. 1917 (PR: 8)
8. Pain and Glory (PR: 5)
9. Booksmart (PR: 9)
10. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 7)
Dropped Out:
The Report
Honey Boy
Dolemite Is My Name
Knives Out
Rocketman
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM
Predicted Nominees:
1. Parasite
2. Pain and Glory
3. Atlantics
4. Les Miserables
5. Monos
Other Possibilities:
6. Those Who Remained
7. Beanpole
8. And Then We Danced
9. Papicha
10. The Traitor
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Predicted Nominees:
1. Toy Story 4
2. Frozen II
3. How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
4. Missing Link
5. Weathering with You
Other Possibilities:
6. I Lost My Body
7. Abominable
8. Klaus
9. Funan
10. Okko’s Inn
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Predicted Nominees:
1. Apollo 11
2. American Factory
3. Maiden
4. One Child Nation
5. The Cave
Other Possibilities:
6. The Biggest Little Farm
7. The Edge of Democracy
8. Aquarela
9. Rolling Thunder Revue: A Bob Dylan Story By Martin Scorsese
10. Knock Down the House
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Predicted Nominees:
1. 1917
2. The Irishman
3. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
4. Parasite
5. The Lighthouse
OtherPossibilities:
6. Ad Astra
7. Ford v Ferrari
8. Marriage Story
9. Joker
10. Jojo Rabbit
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Predicted Nominees:
1. Downton Abbey
2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
3. Little Women
4. Dolemite Is My Name
5. Rocketman
OtherPossibilities:
6. Judy
7. The Irishman
8. Aladdin
9. 1917
10. Jojo Rabbit
BEST EDITING
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Irishman
2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
3. 1917
4. Ford v Ferrari
5. Marriage Story
Other Possibilities:
6. Parasite
7. Jojo Rabbit
8. Joker
9. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
10. Ad Astra
BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Irishman
2. Bombshell
3. Judy
4. Dolemite Is My Name
5. Little Women
Other Possibilities:
6. Joker
7. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
8. The Aeronauts
9. Rocketman
10. Cats
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Predicted Nominees:
1. 1917
2. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
3. Little Women
4. Marriage Story
5. Jojo Rabbit
Other Possibilities:
6. The Aeronauts
7. Ford v Ferrari
8. A Hidden Life
9. Joker
10. Waves
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Into the Unknown” from Frozen II
2. “I’m Gonna Love Me Again” from Rocketman
3. “Stand Up” from Harriet
4. “The Ballad of the Lonesome Cowboy” from Toy Story 4
5. “Speechless” from Aladdin
Other Possibilities:
6. “I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away” from Toy Story 4
7. “Spirit” from The Lion King
8. “One Little Soldier” from Bombshell
9. “Daily Battles” from Motherless Brooklyn
10. “Together From Afar” from How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Predicted Nominees:
1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
2. 1917
3. Jojo Rabbit
4. The Irishman
5. Little Women
Other Possibilities:
6. Cats
7. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
8. Ford v Ferrari
9. Aladdin
10. Downton Abbey
BEST SOUND EDITING
Predicted Nominees:
1. 1917
2. Ford v Ferrari
3. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
4. Rocketman
5. Avengers: Endgame
Other Possibilities:
6. Ad Astra
7. The Irishman
8. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
9. Cats
10. The Lion King
BEST SOUND MIXING
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ford v Ferrari
2. 1917
3. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
4. Rocketman
5. Ad Astra
Other Possibilities:
6. Avengers: Endgame
7. Cats
8. The Irishman
9. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
10. The Lion King
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Irishman
2. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
3. Avengers: Endgame
4. The Lion King
5. Alita: Battle Angel
Other Possibilities:
6. The Aeronauts
7. Gemini Man
8. Ad Astra
9. 1917
10. Godzilla: King of the Monsters
So here’s I have the nominations playing out as far as numbers with each film:
10 Nominations
The Irishman
9 Nominations
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
8 Nominations
1917, Marriage Story
5 Nominations
Bombshell, Ford v Ferrari, Little Women, Parasite
4 Nominations
Jojo Rabbit, Rocketman, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, The Two Popes
3 Nominations
The Farewell, Joker
2 Nominations
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, Avengers: Endgame, Dolemite Is My Name, Frozen II, Judy, Toy Story 4
1 Nomination
Ad Astra, Aladdin, Alita: Battle Angel, American Factory, Apollo 11, Atlantics, The Cave, Downton Abbey, Harriet, Hustlers, How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World, Les Miserables, The Lighthouse, The Lion King, Maiden, Missing Link, Monos, One Child Nation, Pain and Glory, The Report, Weathering with You
