From 2003-2015, Alejandro González Iñárritu’s five directorial efforts in a row (21 Grams, Babel, Biutiful, Birdman, The Revenant) resulted in ten acting nominations at the Oscars and a win for Leonardo DiCaprio for The Revenant. The filmmaker himself collected two directorial victories in a row with Birdman and The Revenant while the former won Best Picture.
Tom Cruise is probably the biggest movie star on the planet over the last four decades. He’s a three-time Academy nominee (in lead for Born on the Fourth of July and Jerry Maguire and supporting for Magnolia) who’s yet to be in the mix during the 21st century.
The collaboration of Iñárritu and Cruise for this weekend’s satire Digger was rightly looked at as a major awards contender that could finally land its lead a statue (not counting his honorary Oscar that came months ago). And why not honor John Goodman, a beloved character actor never up for an Academy Award, with a first go at Supporting Actor? Other costars include Riz Ahmed, Sandra Hüller, Michael Stuhlbarg, and Jesse Plemons.
With the review embargo lifted, a lot of the aforementioned narrative has been buried. Rotten Tomatoes is at 51% with Metacritic even lower at 44. Critical reaction is widely varied. There are truly positive write-ups with others calling it an unmitigated disaster. Box office potential appears limited and I’m projecting it will bomb with just over $11 million out of the gate domestically.
Are the Oscar chances dead? In the main categories, a strong argument can be made in the affirmative. It may stand an outside shot at following the Don’t Look Up path. That 2021 political black comedy from Adam McKay holds similar numbers on RT/MC. The difference is that the 2026 lineup of BP contenders appears stronger and Up was generally considered a widely viewed Netflix effort. Digger seems headed for the stench of financial failure.
As for Cruise, he would have zero chance of winning. Without that narrative, I don’t see him getting into the final five. Conventional wisdom put Goodman in as the Supporting Actor hopeful. It’s Ahmed who’s being called the standout among the rest of the ensemble. Hüller was bandied about though her supporting turn in Project Hail Mary seems more feasible now and she has an even stronger chance in lead with Rose. Ultimately I doubt the cast factors into those races at all.
Digger‘s best and perhaps only opportunities to show up on Oscar night 2027 are for Makeup & Hairstyling and Production Design. I had it predicted for both in my update two days ago and I suspect that could remain the case moving forward. I’m slightly more confident about Makeup & Hairstyling. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
My second helping of ranked Oscar predictions for next year’s 99th ceremony can be called the pre-Cannes estimates. That festival in the French Riviera kicks off May 12th and runs through May 23rd. It will be our first look at several potential contenders: Ryusuke Hamaguchi’s All of a Sudden, Pawel Pawlikowski’s Fatherland, Cristian Mungiu’s Fjord, Na Hong-jin’s Hope, James Gray’s Paper Tiger, and The Man I Love from Ira Sachs to name a few. Keep an eye on the blog for my individual posts exploring the viability of the screening pictures.
The Academy made some news of its own by announcing rule changes. The most significant is that actors can be nominated twice in the same category. There’s been recent examples of when this could have resulted in a performer getting two nods. I would say most recently that Sebastian Stan could have benefited. He was nominated in lead Actor for The Apprentice and a double shot was possible via A Different Man. Going back a ways, Kate Winslet won Best Actress in 2008 for The Reader and might have seen her name pop again for Revolutionary Road. In 2006, Kate’s Titanic mate Leonardo DiCaprio was in contention for Blood Diamond. He could have easily landed another shot via The Departed.
In International Feature Film, the criteria has always been that a submitting nation can choose just one entrant for consideration. While that rule holds, the Academy has added another path to get in. If a picture wins a qualifying international festival (such as Cannes, Berlin, Toronto, Sundance, Venice), it is now a contender. This would have helped Anatomy of a Fall in 2023 since France did not choose it as their representative picture, but it emerged victorious for the Palme d’Or at Cannes.
Since my last update in mid-April, Michael opened to gigantic box office and mediocre reviews. While the audience score on Rotten Tomatoes is high, critical griping could cripple its viability at the Oscars. However, I wouldn’t completely rule out the acclaimed work of Jaafar Jackson and Colman Domingo. Best Picture? Probably a bridge too far despite the gaudy numbers.
The Devil Wears Prada 2 also hit multiplexes. While Meryl Streep was a Best Actress nominee 20 years ago for the original, a second at-bat seems like a reach. The sequel could materialize, however, in Costume Design and/or Original Song where Lady Gaga has a track. Those categories won’t be forecasted until a few weeks down the line.
We also learned that Narnia: The Magician’s Nephew from Greta Gerwig will not be out (on Netflix) until 2027. I had it on the outside looking in at #11. It drops from contention this time around.
You can read all the speculation below and my next update will arrive as Cannes concludes!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)
3. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)
4. Digger (PR: 5) (E)
5. Fjord (PR: 6) (E)
6. No One Cares (PR: 6) (E)
7. Fatherland (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Dune: Part Three (PR: 10) (+2)
9. The Social Reckoning (PR: 9) (E)
10. All of a Sudden (PR: 7) (-3)
Other Possibilities:
11. Hope (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Cry to Heaven (PR: 16) (+4)
13. A Place in Hell (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Paper Tiger (PR: 21) (+7)
15. Werwulf (PR: 18) (+3)
16. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 23) (+7)
17. Josephine (PR: 17) (E)
18. Saturn Return (PR: 22) (+4)
19. The Entertainment System is Down (PR: 14) (-5)
Barely a month beyond the 98th edition of the Academy Awards, we have arrived at my first ranked predictions for the 99th ceremony. We begin with six major categories – Best Picture, Director, and the four acting derbies.
I gave you my first ranked glimpses for the previous telecast around the same time last year in these same races. How did that impossibly early forecast turn out? I correctly called four of the eventual ten BP nominees with Hamnet, Marty Supreme, Sentimental Value, and Sinners. Winner One Battle After Another as well as Bugonia, F1, and Frankenstein were listed in Other Possibilities. So 80% of the BP contenders were identified with The Secret Agent and Train Dreams not being mentioned in April 2025.
In Best Director, three of the five filmmakers were predicted: Ryan Coogler (Sinners), Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme), and Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value). Statue recipient Paul Thomas Anderson from One Battle and Chloé Zhao (Hamnet) were in Other Possibilities.
As for Best Actress, Jessie Buckley (Hamnet) swept the season and was in my predicted quintet. So was Sentimental Value‘s Renate Reinsve while Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You) and Emma Stone (Bugonia) were in Other Possibilities. Only Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue) wasn’t listed. In Best Actor, Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme) was in my quintet. Three others – winner Michael B. Jordan (Sinners), Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another), and Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon) were Other Possibilities with Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent) as the sole thespian not identified.
My projected Supporting Actress five rightly named Teyana Taylor (One Battle) with Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value) as a possibility. Fanning’s costar Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Wumni Mosaku (Sinners), and the victorious Amy Madigan (Weapons) were not found among my possibilities. In Supporting Actor, Stellan Skarsgård from Value was in my five with winner Sean Penn (One Battle) and Delroy Lindo (Sinners) as possibilities. Battle‘s Benicio del Toro and Frankenstein‘s Jacob Elordi were not to be found yet.
Let’s get some caveats out of the way. Some of the performers listed in lead will end up in supporting and vice versa. As an example, I figured Paul Mescal (Hamnet) would go lead for that film last year, but he was slotted in supporting. He ended up not being nominated but likely came close. For instance in this year’s listings, I don’t know if Sam Rockwell will be lead or supporting for Wild Horse Nine but my hunch says the latter at press time. The distributor will eventually clear that up.
We will see pictures push to 2027. When I did my initial projections a year ago for 2025, Michael and The Rivals of Amziah King were thought to be releases for that calendar frame. Both are being put out in ’26. I have Michael still as a potential nominee in some competitions. Not so at this time for Rivals.
And now the most important forewarning. Some movies you find below will turn out to be non-contenders. My inaugural look at the 98th Oscars listed Luca Guadagnino’s After the Hunt at #1 in Best Picture, Director, Actress (Julia Roberts), #4 in Supporting Actress (Ayo Edebiri), and #2 in Supporting Actor (Andrew Garfield). After its Venice festival premiere, the mixed to negative reaction drastically changed its narrative. It ended up with zero nominations. My April 2025 #1’s in the supporting fields – Ariana Grande (Wicked: For Good) and Adam Sandler (Jay Kelly) – did not make final cut either.
So take this speculation as what it is – speculative. The picture and Best Picture will become clearer in time. That said, a reminder that 80% of the BP nominees were mentioned a year ago in addition to 100% of the directors and 80% of the lead acting hopefuls could be found in the initial post. On the flip side, nearly all of my acting picks for a nomination are coming from projected BP nominees and the percentage probably won’t be quite that high.
When Sinners came out last year, it was a box office juggernaut with widespread critical acclaim. Yet I wondered whether the spring release could mean it would fall by the wayside months down the line. That’s why I named it in Other Possibilities for Picture, Director, Actor, and Supporting Actor. What happened months down the line? A record-setting 16 nominations with Jordan winning Actor. I won’t make the same mistake with Project Hail Mary. It has been out for weeks and already looks like a strong contender in Picture, Director, Actor, and possibly Supporting Actress. Another note – it’s not often (or maybe ever) you see a performer mentioned four times. That’s the case at the moment with the busy Sandra Hüller who is a legit threat twice in lead Actress and supporting.
You can expect these posts to hit the blog every couple of weeks until it becomes weekly. This should occur when festival season goes into overdrive in last summer/early fall.
BEST PICTURE
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey
2. Project Hail Mary
3. Wild Horse Nine
4. Digger
5. Fjord
6. No One Cares
7. All of a Sudden
8. Fatherland
9. The Social Reckoning
10. Dune: Part Three
Other Possibilities:
11. Narnia: The Magican’s Nephew
12. A Place in Hell
13. A Long Winter
14. The Entertainment System is Down
15. Being Heumann
16. Cry to Heaven
17. Josephine
18. Werwulf
19. The Adventures of Cliff Booth
20. Michael
21. Paper Tiger
22. Saturn Return
23. Sense and Sensibility
24. Jack of Spades
25. Behemoth!
BEST DIRECTOR
Predicted Nominees:
1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey
2. Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Digger
3. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary
4. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine
5.Cristian Mingiu, Fjord
Other Possibilities:
6. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden
7. Pawel Pawlikowski, Fatherland
8. Jesse Eisenberg, No One Cares
9. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three
10. Greta Gerwig, Narnia: The Magician’s Nephew
11. Ruben Östlund, The Entertainment System is Down
12. Tom Ford, Cry to Heaven
13. Aaron Sorkin, The Social Reckoning
14. Robert Eggers, Werwulf
15. David Fincher, The Adventures of Cliff Booth
BEST ACTRESS
Predicted Nominees:
1. Renate Reinsve, Fjord
2. Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning
3. Julianne Moore, No One Cares
4. Sandra Hüller, Fatherland
5. Michelle Williams, A Place in Hell
Other Possibilities:
6. Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden
7. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann
8. Mason Reeves, Josephine
9. Sophie Okenedo, Clarissa
10. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie
11. Sandra Hüller, Rose
12. Lily Gladstone, The Memory Police
13. Rachel Brosnahan, Saturn Return
14. Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility
15. Amy Adams, At the Sea
BEST ACTOR
Predicted Nominees:
1. Tom Cruise, Digger
2. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary
3. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine
4. Sebastian Stan, Fjord
5. Hanns Zischler, Fatherland
Other Possibilities:
6. Matt Damon, The Odyssey
7. Robert Aramayo, I Swear
8. Dominic Sessa, Tony
9. Nicholas Hoult, Cry to Heaven
10. Jafaar Jackson, Michael
11. Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Three
12. Pedro Pascal, Behemoth!
13. Brad Pitt, The Adventures of Cliff Booth
14. Charles Melton, Saturn Return
15. John Turturro, The Only Pickpocket Living in New York
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Predicted Nominees:
1. Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine
2. Mariana Di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine
3. Halle Bailey, No One Cares
4. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey
5. Tao Okamoto, All of a Sudden
Other Possibilities:
6. Sandra Hüller, Digger
7. Daisy Edgar-Jones, A Place in Hell
8.. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary
9. Caitriona Balfe, A Long Winter
10. Scarlett Johansson, Paper Tiger
11. Wunmi Mosaku, The Social Reckoning
12. Kirsten Dunst, The Entertainment System is Down
13. Gemma Chan, Josephine
14. Frances McDormand, Jack of Spades
15. Elizabeth Debicki, The Adventures of Cliff Booth
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Predicted Nominees:
1. Paul Giamatti, No One Cares
2. John Goodman, Digger
3. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine
4. Colman Domingo, Michael
5. Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning
Other Possibilities:
6. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine
7. Andrew Scott, A Place in Hell
8. Tom Holland, The Odyssey
9. Mark Ruffalo, Being Heumann
10. D’Pharaoh Woon-A-Tai, A Long Winter
11. Jesse Plemons, Digger
12. Channing Tatum, Josephine
13. David Oyelowo, Clarissa
14. Daniel Brühl, The Entertainment System is Down
And we are off to the races with my first Oscar predictions for the 99th Academy Awards.
We are a couple weeks removed from the 98th ceremony so let us begin some ridiculously early speculation! These are my inaugural glimpses at the four acting derbies, Director, and Picture. They will unfold on the blog over the next few days. I already posted my take in the supporting fields and they can be found here:
We arrive at Best Actor. When I did my first picks for last year’s race, I correctly named one of the eventual five nominees and that was Timothée Chalamet for Marty Supreme. In Other Possibilities, I identified Leonardo DiCaprio in One Battle After Another. At that early juncture, I did not list the eventual winner Michael B. Jordan (Sinners), Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon), or Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent).
Let’s get some caveats out of the way… it’s early. Some movies listed are likely to be pushed back or simply not turn out to be awards contenders. Actors listed here could end up being campaigned in supporting. And there will be movies we’re not even anticipating that will rise up with performances currently not on the radar.
For this premiere post, it’s probable that we already know one member of the quintet and that’s Ryan Gosling in Project Hail Mary. His film is a box office juggernaut and he has to carry much of the running time by himself. If he makes the cut, it would mark his fourth attempt at the gold statue behind lead noms for Half Nelson and La La Land and a supporting nod for Barbie.
He’s not the only star potentially in line for a fourth mention. The same holds true for Tom Cruise in Alejandro Gonzales Inarritu’s Digger. He won an honorary Oscar at the 98th ceremony, but is 0 for 3 in the competitive races are being up in lead for Born on the Fourth of July and Jerry Maguire and in supporting for Magnolia.
We aren’t finished yet talking about thespians getting their fourth nominations. Matt Damon contended for lead in Good Will Hunting and The Martian and a supporting turn in Invictus. His 4th try could come via Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey.
John Malkovich is probably going lead for Martin McDonagh’s Wild Horse Nine after two supporting attempts for Places in the Heart and In the Line of Fire. He could make it in for the first time in 33 years.
For my fifth pick, I’m perhaps going out a limb and selecting Robert Aramayo (I Swear) who pulled off a BAFTA upset in Best Actor weeks ago. It comes out stateside in a couple of weeks and could have enough staying power for the BAFTA recipient to stake a claim. I’ll admit this a long shot projection, but hey it’s early right?
The speculation will continue in earnest during the weeks and months ahead, but here’s the first snapshot for Best Actor. Best Actress up next!
TODD’S FIRST OSCAR PREDICTIONS FOR BEST ACTOR AT THE 99TH ACADEMY AWARDS
It is time to make my final predictions for the 98th Academy Awards airing Sunday evening with Conan O’Brien returning as host. The first word that comes to mind… ugh. This is tough. Not every category. Some are quite easy to forecast as is normally the case.
The ones that aren’t? I would say five of the top six competitions could go in different directions and that’s unique. As readers of my blog know, there are scores of individual write-ups talking about the Oscar chances of various films. There are multiple posts ranking the possibilities of pics, performers, directors, writers, and all kinds of crew members. It’s now time to put pencils down and write down my selections in pen for the 21 (now that Best Casting has joined the lineup) feature-length races.
Let’s get to it as I’ll select a winner and runner-up in each! And you can bet I’ll have a recap up Sunday night with reaction and how I did!
Best Picture
Bugonia, F1, Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, The Secret Agent, Sentimental Value, Sinners, Train Dreams
This is a head vs. gut call. The head says One Battle After Another which has taken PGA, the Golden Globe for Best Musical or Comedy, Critics Choice, and BAFTA. That kind of combo would normally be undeniable in BP. Yet Sinners is more of the gut prediction. Having just won Best Ensemble at SAG Actor, Ryan Coogler’s vampire tale seems to be peaking at the right time as voters finalize ballots. The record haul of 16 noms is an obvious bonus.
I cannot stress enough how much of a coin flip this is. I may look foolish on Sunday by betting against the kind of hardware that Battle has achieved in the precursors. However, for several days, the momentum of Sinners has me leaning in its direction.
WINNER: Sinners
Runner-Up: One Battle After Another
Best Director
Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another), Ryan Coogler (Sinners), Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme), Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value), Chloé Zhao (Hamnet)
2021 was the last year where there was a BP/Director split with CODA taking the grand prize and Jane Campion (The Power of the Dog) winning Director. Mr. Anderson has swept the precursors including the Directors Guild of America (DGA) which rarely differs from Oscar. A better night for Sinners than even I’m projecting could cause Ryan Coogler to become the first African-American to make this particular podium trip. In this case, my head and gut say PTA.
WINNER: Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
Runner-Up: Ryan Coogler, Sinners
Best Actress
Jessie Buckley (Hamnet), Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You), Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue), Renate Reinsve (Sentimental Value), Emma Stone (Bugonia)
Someone other than Jessie Buckley had to win Actress in a Musical or Comedy at the Globes. That was Rose Byrne. Therefore she gets runner-up status. Make no mistake. Of the major categories, this is by far the easiest as Buckley has won everything else.
WINNER: Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
Runner-Up: Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
Best Actor
Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme), Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another), Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon), Michael B. Jordan (Sinners), Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent)
For a while, Critics Choice and Globe winner Timothée Chalamet was looking almost as certain as Buckley. BAFTA and SAG changed that dynamic and they are the last two precursors heading into Oscar voting. At the British ceremony, the not Academy nominated Robert Aramayo (I Swear) was triumphant. At SAG, it was Michael B. Jordan. There’s also Golden Globe Best Drama in a Drama recipient Wagner Moura. All three are viable. Heck there’s even prognosticators making arguments for DiCaprio and Hawke. This is an example where I’m ultimately buying the Sinners mojo though Chalamet still has a stronger shot than some are giving him credit for.
WINNER: Michael B. Jordan, Sinners
Runner-Up: Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme
Best Supporting Actress
Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value), Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass (Sentimental Value), Amy Madigan (Weapons), Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners), Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another)
This one has been all over the place. The Globe went to Teyana Taylor, Amy Madigan took Critics Choice and SAG Actor, and Wunmi Mosaku grabbed BAFTA. Madigan’s performance is so singularly memorable that a win makes plenty of sense. Like Actor, I’m going with where I think the winds are blowing.
WINNER: Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners
Runner-Up: Amy Madigan, Weapons
Best Supporting Actor
Benicio del Toro (One Battle After Another), Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein), Delroy Lindo (Sinners), Sean Penn (One Battle After Another), Stellan Skarsgård (Sentimental Value)
Like Supporting Actress, a head scratcher. Critics Choice went to Jacob Elordi with Stellan Skarsgård getting the Globe. The latter seems more probable and, yes, Sinners love could extend to Lindo. BAFTA and SAG flipped the script by going with Sean Penn who would be picking up the rare third Oscar. This is a case where Battle has the late breaking momentum.
WINNER: Sean Penn, One Battle After Another
Runner-Up: Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value
Best Original Screenplay
Blue Moon, It Was Just an Accident, Marty Supreme, Sentimental Value, Sinners
While most of the races above are tricky, the screenplay ones are not. Value stands the best chance at an upset but Sinners is the easy pick.
WINNER: Sinners
Runner-Up: Sentimental Value
Best Adapted Screenplay
Bugonia, Frankenstein, Hamnet, One Battle After Another, Train Dreams
Repeat everything I said for Original Screenplay and replace Battle for Sinners and Hamnet for Value.
WINNER: One Battle After Another
Runner-Up: Hamnet
Best International Feature Film
It Was Just an Accident, The Secret Agent, Sentimental Value, Sirāt, The Voice of Hind Rajab
At one time, Accident was seen as a potential frontrunner. The competition has morphed to a showdown between Value and Agent. This could definitely go either way, but I’ll give the edge to Value achieving something with its nine nominations.
WINNER: Sentimental Value
Runner-Up: The Secret Agent
Best Animated Feature
Arco, Elio, KPop Demon Hunters, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, Zootopia 2
Zootopia 2 becoming 2025’s largest grossing blockbuster right as voting was occurring cannot hurt. It’s just hard to ignore the cultural juggernaut that KPop is.
WINNER: KPop Demon Hunters
Runner-Up: Zootopia 2
Best Documentary Feature
The Alabama Solution, Come See Me in the Good Light, Cutting Through Rocks, Mr. Nobody Against Putin, The Perfect Neighbor
This is a category capable of surprises and I could see Alabama, Good Light, and especially BAFTA winner Putin getting called up. Neighbor got lots of attention via its Netflix release and I’ll say the true crime doc squeaks through.
WINNER: The Perfect Neighbor
Runner-Up: Mr. Nobody Against Putin
Best Casting
Hamnet, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, The Secret Agent, Sinners
The inaugural year of the Casting contest is consists of five BP nominees and I’m going with the one I’m seledting as the winner.
WINNER: Sinners
Runner-Up: One Battle After Another
Best Cinematography
Frankenstein, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sinners, Train Dreams
Train Dreams has notched some precursors and is a real threat and the same logic certainly applies to Battle. Either could win. So could Sinners with that BP momentum. This is one I think Battle could manage to get and I’ll give it a slight edge over my BP selection
WINNER: One Battle After Another
Runner-Up: Sinners
Best Costume Design
Avatar: Fire and Ash, Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, Sinners
While we’re still wondering what Avatar is doing here, this is one of three races that Frankenstein is likely to collect.
WINNER: Frankenstein
Runner-Up: Sinners
Best Film Editing
F1, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sentimental Value, Sinners
F1 could zoom past the competition and Battle might be the safer bet. I’ll go withmy BP pick for this one.
WINNER: Sinners
Runner-Up: One Battle After Another
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Frankenstein, Kokuho, Sinners, The Smashing Machine, The Ugly Stepsister
This is the second Frankenstein victory unless Sinners has a truly amazing evening.
WINNER: Frankenstein
Runner-Up: Sinners
Best Original Score
Bugonia, Frankenstein, Hamnet, One Battle After Another, Sinners
Sinners is anticipated to emerge here rather easily.
WINNER: Sinners
Runner-Up: One Battle After Another
Best Original Song
“Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless; “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters; “I Lied to You” from Sinners; “Sweet Dreams of Joy” from Viva Verdi!; “Train Dreams” from Train Dreams
The Sinners tune could score the upset though “Golden” should be just that.
WINNER: “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters
Runner-Up: “I Lied to You” from Sinners
Best Production Design
Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sinners
Frankenstein Oscar #3 expected with Sinners looming.
WINNER: Frankenstein
Runner-Up: Sinners
Best Sound
F1, Frankenstein, One Battle After Another, Sinners, Sirāt
One of the trickiest down the line categories as Sinners could absolutely prevail and a Sirāt upset is feasible. I do think the autotunes of F1 gets it by a nose.
WINNER: F1
Runner-Up: Sinners
Best Visual Effects
Avatar: Fire and Ash, F1, Jurassic World Rebirth, The Lost Bus, Sinners
The first two Avatar flicks nabbed VE as should the third.
WINNER: Avatar: Fire and Ash
Runner-Up: F1
That equates to these movies generating these numbers in terms of victories:
7 Wins
Sinners
4 Wins
One Battle After Another
3 Wins
Frankenstein
2 Wins
KPop Demon Hunters
1 Win
Avatar: Fire and Ash, F1, Hamnet, The Perfect Neighbor, Sentimental Value
As we do every year on the blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.
It began with the ten Best Picture contenders and now alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. The BP posts are readily available for your perusing pleasure. Our final entrant among the Supporting Actress nominees is Teyana Taylor in Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another. If you missed the previous posts in this race, you can access them here:
The multi-faceted entertainer received raves as revolutionary Perfidia Beverly Hills in the potential BP winner. Taylor has been nominated in all key precursors and was victorious at the Golden Globes. That race has matched the Oscars in Supporting Actress for seven out of the past ten years. She joins costars Leonardo DiCaprio, Benicio del Toro, and Sean Penn in vying for attention. While her screen time is limited, Taylor’s presence is felt throughout the film.
The Case Against Teyana Taylor:
Any momentum has been stalled since the Globes. Amy Madigan (Weapons) took Critics Choice and SAG Actor while Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners) is the BAFTA recipient. Sean Penn has arguably emerged as the thespian most likely to take gold for PTA’s latest.
The Verdict:
Supporting Actress has no clear frontrunner. If Battle is your BP and Director victor, that increases the chances for Taylor to make a podium trip. There’s also no doubt that Madigan and Mosaku have strong cases.
My Case Of posts will continue with the final hopeful in Supporting Actor and that’s Stellan Skarsgård in Sentimental Value…
The ceremony formerly known as the SAG Awards is now the Actor Awards and the 32nd edition of the ceremony airs Sunday, March 1st. Kristen Bell returns to host a show that is tough to predict, especially in the supporting fields where no frontrunner has emerged via the precursors. Will the Screen Actors Guild help make it clearer or muddy it up even more?
Let’s walk through the six movie races with my thoughts and a winner and runner-up projection. I’ll have a recap up Sunday evening with initial thoughts and how I did.
Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture
Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sinners
Over the past 10 years, this ensemble award has matched the Academy’s Best Picture half the time (Spotlight, Parasite, CODA, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Oppenheimer). I would definitely say the two pics with a shot to win are Battle and Sinners, the two BP favorites. While the former may have an edge with the Academy, my hunch is that SAG goes with Ryan Coogler’s sprawling cast.
WINNER: Sinners
Runner-Up: One Battle After Another
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role
Jessie Buckley (Hamnet), Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You), Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue), Chase Infiniti (One Battle After Another), Emma Stone (Bugonia)
This category has matched Oscar 6 out the last 10 years. Actress is the only competition where the possibility of a sweep is still open. Jessie Buckley has triumphed everywhere else and I see no compelling reason why this guild would change that.
WINNER: Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
Runner-Up: Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role
Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme), Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another), Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon), Michael B. Jordan (Sinners), Jesse Plemons (Bugonia)
The idea of a Chalamet sweep was halted when BAFTA unexpectedly rolled with Robert Aramayo in I Swear (who isn’t nominated here or at the Oscars). My hesitation to pick Chalamet has less to do with that and more to do with the fact he won SAG Actor last year for A Complete Unknown. I could see Hawke taking this prize for his showy role or the voters selecting Jordan. Ultimately I’m not pulling the trigger on the upset, but don’t discount the possibility. There is a 7 for 10 Actor/Oscar match over the past decade.
WINNER: Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme
Runner-Up: Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role
Odessa A’Zion (Marty Supreme), Ariana Grande (Wicked: For Good), Amy Madigan (Weapons), Wumni Mosaku (Sinners), Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another)
Ugh… this is a tough one. There is no consistency among the precursors – Critics Choice went with Madigan, the Globes honored Taylor, and BAFTA picked Mosaku. One could certainly argue that Mosaku has the momentum and that if Sinners takes Best Ensemble, it increases the chances of a solo acting victory. Taylor could solidify her status as Oscar favorite with this award. This is essentially a three-way coin flip. Madigan could certainly emerge as this branch has shown the ability to honor the horror genre in a way the Academy doesn’t (see Demi Moore last year for The Substance). My gut says Sinners gets that one solo prize though I cannot stress enough that I almost went with Taylor. There is a 9 for 10 match with this branch and Oscar since 2015.
WINNER: Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners
Runner-Up: Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
Miles Caton (Sinners), Benicio del Toro (One Battle After Another), Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein), Paul Mescal (Hamnet), Sean Penn (One Battle After Another)
There’s a 9 for 10 match here as well and this is just as wide open as Supporting Actress. Critics Choice called Elordi as their winner, Globes picked Stellan Skarsgård in Sentimental Value (not nominated here), and BAFTA went with Sean Penn. In this case, I am going with the BAFTA momentum though his costar del Toro might pose the realest threat.
WINNER: Sean Penn, One Battle After Another
Runner-Up: Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another
Outstanding Action Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture
F1, Frankenstein, Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning, One Battle After Another, Sinners
Tom Cruise’s franchise is known for stunts so I wouldn’t bet against it.
The 79th BAFTAs (Britain’s version of the Academy Awards) occur this Sunday and they are often a reliable precursor to what Oscar voters will do. For example, they are 8 for 8 in the past two cycles in forecasting the acting races. On the flip side, in 2022, none of the four BAFTA acting recipients took the Oscar. The previous five cycles has seen the BAFTA Best Film match with Best Picture only twice (Nomadland, Oppenheimer). In 2021, the Brits honored The Power of the Dog over CODA (which wasn’t nominated). The following year it was All Quiet on the Western Front instead of Everything Everywhere All at Once. Last year, BAFTA selected Conclave and not Anora.
That’s why it’s very tempting to go with Hamnet over arguable frontrunners One Battle After Another and Sinners in the top competition. I almost did so, but ultimately decided with roll with Battle (with a low degree of confidence). Let’s walk through each race one by one with my winner projections and a runner-up.
Best Film
Hamnet, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sentimental Value, Sinners
WINNER: One Battle After Another
Runner-Up: Hamnet
Best Director
Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another), Ryan Coogler (Sinners), Yorgos Lanthimos (Bugonia), Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme), Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value), Chloé Zhao (Hamnet)
WINNER: Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
Runner-Up: Chloé Zhao, Hamnet
Best Actress
Jessie Buckley (Hamnet), Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You), Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue), Chase Infiniti (One Battle After Another), Renate Reinsve (Sentimental Value), Emma Stone (Bugonia)
WINNER: Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
Runner-Up: Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value
Best Actor
Robert Aramayo (I Swear), Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme), Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another), Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon), Michael B. Jordan (Sinners), Jesse Plemons (Bugonia)
WINNER: Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme
Runner-Up: Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon
Best Supporting Actress
Odessa A’Zion (Marty Supreme), Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass (Sentimental Value), Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners), Carey Mulligan (The Ballad of Wallis Island), Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another), Emily Watson (Hamnet)
WINNER: Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another
Runner-Up: Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value
Best Supporting Actor
Benicio del Toro (One Battle After Another), Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein), Paul Mescal (Hamnet), Peter Mullan (I Swear), Sean Penn (One Battle After Another), Stellan Skarsgård (Sentimental Value)
WINNER: Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value
Runner-Up: Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another
Best Original Screenplay
I Swear, Marty Supreme, The Secret Agent, Sentimental Value, Sinners
WINNER: Sentimental Value
Runner-Up: Sinners
Best Adapted Screenplay
The Ballad of Wallis Island, Bugonia, Hamnet, One Battle After Another, Pillion
WINNER: One Battle After Another
Runner-Up: Hamnet
Outstanding British Film
28 Years Later, The Ballad of Wallis Island, Bridget Jones: Mad About the Boy, Die My Love, H is for Hawk, Hamnet, I Swear, Mr Burton, Pillion, Steve
WINNER: Hamnet
Runner-Up: Pillion
Outstanding Debut by a British Writer, Director or Producer
The Ceremony, My Father’s Shadow, Pillion, A Want in Her, Wasteman
WINNER: Pillion
Runner-Up: My Father’s Shadow
Best Film Not in the English Language
It Was Just an Accident, The Secret Agent, Sentimental Value, Sirāt, The Voice of Hind Rajab
WINNER: Sentimental Value
Runner-Up: The Secret Agent
Best Animated Film
Elio, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, Zootopia 2
WINNER: Zootopia 2
Runner-Up: Little Amélie or the Character of Rain
Best Children’s & Family Film
Arco, Boong, Lilo & Stitch, Zootopia 2
WINNER: Zootopia 2
Runner-Up: Arco
Best Documentary
2000 Meters to Andrivka, Apocalypse in the Tropics, Cover-Up, Mr. Nobody Against Putin, The Perfect Neighbor
WINNER: 2000 Meters to Andrivka
Runner-Up: The Perfect Neighbor
Best Casting
I Swear, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sentimental Value, Sinners
WINNER: Sentimental Value
Runner-Up: One Battle After Another
Best Cinematography
Frankenstein, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sinners, Train Dreams
WINNER: One Battle After Another
Runner-Up: Sinners
Best Costume Design
Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, Sinners, Wicked: For Good
WINNER: Frankenstein
Runner-Up: Hamnet
Best Editing
F1, A House of Dynamite, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sinners
WINNER: F1
Runner-Up: One Battle After Another
Best Make Up & Hair
Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, Sinners, Wicked: For Good
WINNER: Frankenstein
Runner-Up: Wicked: For Good
Best Original Score
Bugonia, Frankenstein, Hamnet, One Battle After Another, Sinners
WINNER: Sinners
Runner-Up: Hamnet
Best Production Design
Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sinners
WINNER: Frankenstein
Runner-Up: Hamnet
Best Sound
F1, Frankenstein, One Battle After Another, Sinners, Warfare
WINNER: F1
Runner-Up: Sinners
Best Special Visual Effects
Avatar: Fire and Ash, F1, Frankenstein, How to Train Your Dragon, The Lost Bus
WINNER: Avatar: Fire and Ash
Runner-Up: F1
That adds up to these movies generating numbers of victories:
5 Wins
One Battle After Another
4 Wins
Sentimental Value
3 Wins
Frankenstein
2 Wins
F1, Hamnet, Zootopia 2
1 Win
2000 Meters to Andrivka, Avatar: Fire and Ash, Marty Supreme, Pillion, Sinners
I’ll have a recap up Sunday with how I performed and my thoughts on how it might impact the Oscars…
As we do every year on the blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.
It began with the ten Best Picture contenders and now alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. The BP posts are readily available for your perusing pleasure. A mostly unknown chap that goes by Leonardo DiCaprio is our second contender in Best Actor for One Battle After Another. If you missed my post on Timothée Chalamet as Marty Supreme, you can peruse it here:
1993 – Supporting Actor (What’s Eating Gilbert Grape) – lost to Tommy Lee Jones for The Fugitive; 2004 – Actor (The Aviator) – lost to Jamie Foxx for Ray; 2006 – Actor (Blood Diamond) – lost to Forest Whitaker from The Last King of Scotland; 2013 – Actor (The Wolf of Wall Street) – lost to Matthew McConaughey from Dallas Buyers Club); 2015 – Actor (The Revenant) – WON); 2019 – Actor (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood) – lost to Joaquin Phoenix from Joker
The Case for Leonardo DiCaprio:
Arguably being the biggest movie star on the planet helps. It doesn’t hurt that Battle is the frontrunner or easily co-frontrunner for Best Picture. As former revolutionary turned forgetful dad Bob Ferguson, DiCaprio has racked up all the precursors nominations including the Globes, Critics Choice, BAFTA, and SAG Actor.
The Case Against Leonardo DiCaprio:
He is up against arguably the biggest movie star on the planet Timothée Chalamet and his work as Marty Supreme has already won him the Globe and Critics Choice prize. Leo’s overdue narrative ended ten years ago with his Revenant victory.
The Verdict:
A SAG Actor or BAFTA trophy would be needed for DiCaprio to pose any real threat to a Chalamet sweep. He might be #2 among the Best Actor five, but there’s some considerable distance between 1st and 2nd.
My Case Of posts will continue with the second nominee in Supporting Actress and that’s Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass in Sentimental Value…
As we do every year on the blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.
It began with the ten Best Picture contenders and now alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. The BP posts are readily available for your perusing pleasure. Our first contender in the Best Actor five is on the table and it’s Timothée Chalamet for Marty Supreme.
Previous Acting Nominations:
2017 – Actor (Call Me by Your Name) – lost to Gary Oldman for Darkest Hour; 2024 – Actor (A Complete Unknown) – lost to Adrien Brody for The Brutalist
The Case for Timothée Chalamet:
After likely being runner-up last year, Chalamet has drawn career best reviews as the singularly focused ping pong player in Josh Safdie’s sports drama. Precursor appreciation has followed with victories at the Golden Globes and Critics Choice while he awaits the BAFTAs and SAG Actor. While he’s only 30, Chalamet’s body of work in recent years is seen as worthy of recognition and Marty is a supreme vehicle for it.
The Case Against Timothée Chalamet:
The Academy left his costars out of contention including Odessa A’Zion (who I predicted for inclusion). A domino effect for either One Battle After Another or Sinners could create an opening for Leonardo DiCaprio or Michael B. Jordan, respectively.
The Verdict:
Unless one of the upcoming precursors provides an upset, it appears the third time is probably going to be the charm for Chalamet.
My Case Of posts will continue with the first hopeful in Supporting Actress and that’s Elle Fanning in Sentimental Value…
