Oscars: The Case of All Quiet on the Western Front

As is tradition every Oscar season on the blog, it’s time to dig a bit deeper into the nominees for Best Picture, Director, and the four acting derbies. These are my Case Of posts where I lay out the merits for and against the 35 contenders in the aforementioned competitions. Yes, that’s 35 individual posts and we start with the 10 hopefuls in BP.

This will occur alphabetically so All Quiet on the Western Front is on deck!

The Case for All Quiet on the Western Front:

Edward Berger’s antiwar epic is the only title that’s won Best Picture before. The 1929-30 ceremony (the 3rd ever Oscars) bestowed best in show to the 1930 version of Erich Maria Remarque’s novel. If we believe BAFTA is a reliable precursor to Academy glory, Front is loaded with a leading 14 nominations. Tied with The Banshees of Inisherin with 9 nods, the pair is second only to Everything Everywhere All at Once‘s 11. This is Netflix’s one and only contender so the streamer has and will be campaigning hard.

The Case Against All Quiet on the Western Front:

The nine mentions are impressive and more than anticipated. However, a couple of misses are key. Not many films end up winning BP that are omitted in Editing and that applies here. Most importantly, Berger did not make the quintet in Director. While there have been recent examples of the directors of BP recipients not making that cut (Ben Affleck for Argo, Peter Farrelly for Green Book, Sian Heder last year with CODA), this seems like the type of project where the filmmaker needed in to have much hope of taking the biggest prize. That’s not the only chink in the armor. Quiet was widely expected to take the Golden Globe statue for foreign feature and lost in an upset to Argentina, 1985. Netflix hasn’t won a BP yet.

Other Nominations:

Adapted Screenplay, International Feature Film, Cinematography, Makeup & Hairstyling, Original Score, Production Design, Sound, Visual Effects

The Verdict:

Quiet appears close to a lock to make noise in International Feature Film (I wouldn’t bet on an Argentina upset on Oscar night). While its haul of nine is laudable, its chances in BP are low-key.

My Case Of posts will continue with Avatar: The Way of Water!

95th Academy Awards Nominations Reaction

It was a glorious performance for Everything Everywhere All at Once and The Banshees of Inisherin with this morning’s Oscar nominations. Both pics were up everywhere they needed to be for everything to potentially win the big prize on March 12th.

There were also strong showings for All Quiet on the Western Front, Elvis, The Fabelmans, and Top Gun: Maverick. However, it’s fair to say that each missed a key race or two that would’ve helped for their Best Picture viability.

As far as my own showing, I went 79 for 105 in my projections. I’ll take it though it’s slightly under my 82/105 performance from the previous year. One bright spot: no 2 for 5’s as I’d experienced a couple of times in preceding years.

Let’s walk through each race one by one with initial thoughts, shall we?

Best Picture

The Nominees: All Quiet on the Western Front, Avatar: The Way of Water, The Banshees of Inisherin, Elvis, Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Fabelmans, Tár, Top Gun: Maverick, Triangle of Sadness, Women Talking

How I Did: 8/10

No real shockers. The movies that I had listed 11th and 12th (Avatar and Women Talking) made it over my selections of Babylon and The Whale. I went a little bold omitting Water in the first place.

As hinted at, I’m seeing this as between Everything and Banshees with Fabelmans as a potential spoiler (and maybe Maverick if I’m feeling bold).

Best Director

The Nominees: Daniels (Everything Everywhere All at Once), Todd Field (Tár), Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin), Ruben Ostlund (Triangle of Sadness), Steven Spielberg (The Fabelmans)

How I Did: 4/5

The Daniels v. Spielberg is where this may come down to. All Quiet had a solid morning, but Edward Berger missing (I predicted him) likely eliminates it as a BP winner. Ostlund gets in instead.

Best Actress

The Nominees: Cate Blanchett (Tár), Ana de Armas (Blonde), Andrea Riseborough (To Leslie), Michelle Williams (The Fabelmans), Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once)

How I Did: 3/5

In just the last few days, there was an organic (?) campaign launched for Riseborough by plenty of famous faces. She was nowhere near the radar for the bulk of the season. Her inclusion might alter how campaigns look in the future. Williams (who was looking shaky) and Riseborough make it over my predictions of Viola Davis (The Woman King) and Danielle Deadwyler (Till). Both of their pics were shutout completely. As for who makes the podium trip, it’s either Blanchett or Yeoh.

Best Actor

The Nominees: Austin Butler (Elvis), Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin), Brendan Fraser (The Whale), Paul Mescal (Aftersun), Bill Nighy (Living)

How I Did: 5/5 (!)

For most prognosticators, this came down to Tom Cruise in Top Gun: Maverick vs. Mescal for the fifth slot. It wasn’t to be for a fourth Cruise nod. For Mescal and Nighy, it’s an honor to be in the quintet. The race is between Butler and Farrell and Fraser (who have all nabbed key precursors). FYI – this entire lineup is first-time nominees and 16 of the acting nominees are newbies (which is very high).

Best Supporting Actress

The Nominees: Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever), Hong Chau (The Whale), Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin), Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere All at Once), Stephanie Hsu (Everything Everywhere All at Once)

How I Did: 4/5

Hsu, who was my alternate, is in over Triangle‘s Dolly De Leon. If you’d told me De Leon’s movie would get Picture, Director, and Original Screenplay – I would’ve been even more confident she’d make it. With victories already at the Globes and Critics Choice, Bassett is the frontrunner.

Best Supporting Actor

The Nominees: Brendan Gleeson (The Banshees of Inisherin), Brian Tyree Henry (Causeway), Judd Hirsch (The Fabelmans), Barry Keoghan (The Banshees of Inisherin), Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All at Once)

How I Did: 4/5

Henry gets the unanticipated nod over my pick of Paul Dano in The Fabelmans (many had Eddie Redmayne in The Good Nurse projected here). This is, frankly, the simplest acting derby to call and it is Quan.

Best Original Screenplay

The Nominees: The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Fabelmans, Tár, Triangle of Sadness

How I Did: 5/5 (!)

The expected five as the Banshees v Everything showdown could be a clue during the night as to what wins BP at the end of it.

Best Adapted Screenplay

The Nominees: All Quiet on the Western Front, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Living, Top Gun: Maverick, Women Talking

How I Did: 3/5

Maverick and All Quiet over She Said (which was shut out) and The Whale. Considering Women Talking made it in the BP ten, it could get the gold in this race and this one only since it received the least amount of nods (2) for the BP hopefuls. As an aside, there’s always a screenplay contender that gets no other noms anywhere else. This year it was Glass Onion.

Best Animated Feature

The Nominees: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, The Sea Beast, Turning Red

How I Did: 4/5

Pinocchio should take this, but this marks its only nod (it was expected to contend for Song and some techs). I had gone with Netflix’s Wendell and Wild for the fifth spot over Netflix’s The Sea Beast.

Best International Feature Film

The Nominees: All Quiet on the Western Front, Argentina, 1985, Close, EO, The Quiet Girl

How I Did: 3/5

Here’s where there was a total surprise with Decision to Leave getting snubbed. I would’ve had it as the runner-up possibility to win over All Quiet (easily the favorite). I didn’t have Close or EO (though neither is unexpected). In addition to Decision, I also had Joyland.

Best Documentary Feature

The Nominees: All That Breathes, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, Fire of Love, A House Made of Splinters, Navalny

How I Did: 4/5

Had Descendant instead of Splinters. There’s a path to victory for everything but Splinters in my view.

Best Cinematography

The Nominees: All Quiet on the Western Front, Bardo, Elvis, Empire of Light, Tár

How I Did: 3/5

Top Gun: Maverick missing is baffling considering it was a major threat to win. It misses along with The Batman in favor of Bardo and Tár. I wouldn’t discount Empire for the victory though Quiet could make noise in this one.

Best Costume Design

The Nominees: Babylon, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Elvis, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris

How I Did: 4/5

Everything‘s over performance is evident. I had The Woman King instead. The first three alphabetically are your possible winners.

Best Film Editing

The Nominees: The Banshees of Inisherin, Elvis, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Tár, Top Gun: Maverick

How I Did: 3/5

In years past, getting an editing nod is often needed if you want to take BP. So it’s bad news for All Quiet and The Fabelmans. Banshees and Tár join the lineup in their place. Elvis, Everything, and Maverick all possibilities.

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

The Nominees: All Quiet on the Western Front, The Batman, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Elvis, The Whale

How I Did: 4/5

Had Amsterdam and not Quiet. Elvis or The Whale are most likely.

Best Original Score

The Nominees: All Quiet on the Western Front, Babylon, The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Fabelmans

How I Did: 3/5

Considering it made BP, I didn’t think Women Talking would miss. I also had Pinocchio but it’s All Quiet and Everything. This could be the sole Oscar for Babylon.

Best Original Song

The Nominees: “Applause” from Tell It Like a Woman, “Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick, “Lift Me Up” from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, “Naatu Naatu” from RRR, “This Is a Life” from Everything Everywhere All at Once

How I Did: 4/5

Had Pinocchio‘s “Ciao Papa” and not the Everything tune. Despite big names like Lady Gaga, Rihanna, and producer Diane Warren in the mix, “Naatu Naatu” has taken the precursors.

Best Production Design

The Nominees: All Quiet on the Western Front, Avatar: The Way of Water, Babylon, Elvis, The Fabelmans

How I Did: 4/5

A rare occurrence as I had Everything projected and it didn’t make it. All Quiet materializes instead. This could be Elvis or maybe a second shot for Babylon.

Best Sound

The Nominees: All Quiet on the Western Front, Avatar: The Way of Water, The Batman, Elvis, Top Gun: Maverick

How I Did: 4/5

The sound you hear when the envelope opens might be Maverick‘s only victory (now that Cinematography is impossible). I had EEAAO and not The Batman.

Best Visual Effects

The Nominees: All Quiet on the Western Front, Avatar: The Way of Water, The Batman, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Top Gun: Maverick

How I Did: 3/5

Had the wrong MCU pic with Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness and not Panther. All Quiet is also in and I had Thirteen Lives. This should be the Avatar trophy.

That means these movies ended up garnering these numbers in terms of nominations:

11 Nominations

Everything Everywhere All at Once

9 Nominations

All Quiet on the Western Front, The Banshees of Inisherin

8 Nominations

Elvis

7 Nominations

The Fabelmans

6 Nominations

Tár, Top Gun: Maverick

5 Nominations

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

4 Nominations

Avatar: The Way of Water

3 Nominations

Babylon, The Batman, Triangle of Sadness, The Whale

2 Nominations

Living, Women Talking

1 Nomination

Aftersun, All That Breathes, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, Argentina, 1985, Bardo, Blonde, Causeway, Close, Empire of Light, EO, Fire of Love, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, A House Made of Splinters, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris, Navalny, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, The Quiet Girl, RRR, The Sea Beast, Tell It Like a Woman, To Leslie, Turning Red

So what’s next? Followers of the blog may recall that I will soon begin my “Case Of” posts. That’s 35 separate write-ups making the case for and against all contenders in Picture, Director, and the four acting competitions. Stay tuned!

95th Academy Awards FINAL Oscar Nomination Predictions

After months of endless speculation, the nominations for the 95th Academy Awards will be revealed on Tuesday morning. These are my final predictions.

***FYI – I just started a brand new podcast and you can listen to yours truly discuss these final picks at the link here:

https://podcastsconnect.apple.com/my-podcasts/show/movies-at-the-speed-of-speculation/741037cf-8875-406a-8aaa-df66028bfe3e/episodes

I have penned dozens and dozens of posts setting the stage. The time for chatter is over. Below you will find my forecast in all 20 feature film categories with an alternate picked in each.

I will have a recap up Tuesday evening recounting how I did with some initial thoughts on frontrunners to win.

Best Picture

All Quiet on the Western Front

Babylon

The Banshees of Inisherin

Elvis

Everything Everywhere All at Once

The Fabelmans

Tár

Top Gun: Maverick

Triangle of Sadness

The Whale

Alternate: Avatar: The Way of Water

Best Director

Edward Berger, All Quiet on the Western Front

Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Todd Field, Tár

Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin

Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans

Alternate: Baz Luhrmann, Elvis

Best Actress

Cate Blanchett, Tár

Viola Davis, The Woman King

Danielle Deadwyler, Till

Ana de Armas, Blonde

Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Alternate: Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans

Best Actor

Austin Butler, Elvis

Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin

Brendan Fraser, The Whale

Paul Mescal, Aftersun

Bill Nighy, Living

Alternate: Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick

Best Supporting Actress

Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Hong Chau, The Whale

Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin

Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Dolly De Leon, Triangle of Sadness

Alternate: Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Best Supporting Actor

Paul Dano, The Fabelmans

Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin

Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans

Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin

Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Alternate: Eddie Redmayne, The Good Nurse

Best Original Screenplay

The Banshees of Inisherin

Everything Everywhere All at Once

The Fabelmans

Tár

Triangle of Sadness

Alternate: Aftersun

Best Adapted Screenplay

Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

Living

She Said

The Whale

Women Talking

Alternate: All Quiet on the Western Front

Best Animated Feature

Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

Marcel the Shell with Shoes On

Puss in Boots: The Last Wish

Turning Red

Wendell and Wild

Alternate: My Father’s Dragon

Best International Feature Film

All Quiet on the Western Front

Argentina, 1985

Decision to Leave

Joyland

The Quiet Girl

Alternate: Close

Best Documentary Feature

All That Breathes

All the Beauty and the Bloodshed

Descendant

Fire of Love

Navalny

Alternate: Moonage Daydream

Best Cinematography

All Quiet on the Western Front

The Batman

Elvis

Empire of Light

Top Gun: Maverick

Alternate: The Fabelmans

Best Costume Design

Babylon

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Elvis

Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris

The Woman King

Alternate: The Fabelmans

Best Film Editing

All Quiet on the Western Front

Elvis

Everything Everywhere All at Once

The Fabelmans

Top Gun: Maverick

Alternate: The Banshees of Inisherin

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Amsterdam

The Batman

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Elvis

The Whale

Alternate: All Quiet on the Western Front

Best Original Score

Babylon

The Banshees of Inisherin

The Fabelmans

Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

Women Talking

Alternate: Everything Everywhere All at Once

Best Original Song

“Applause” from Tell It Like a Woman

“Ciao Papa” from Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

“Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick

“Lift Me Up” from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

“Naatu Naatu” from RRR

Alternate: “This Is a Life” from Everything Everywhere All at Once

Best Production Design

Avatar: The Way of Water

Babylon

Elvis

Everything Everywhere All at Once

The Fabelmans

Alternate: All Quiet on the Western Front

Best Sound

All Quiet on the Western Front

Avatar: The Way of Water

Elvis

Everything Everywhere All at Once

Top Gun: Maverick

Alternate: The Batman

Best Visusal Effects

Avatar: The Way of Water

The Batman

Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness

Thirteen Lives

Top Gun: Maverick

Alternate: All Quiet on the Western Front

And that means a final tally for these movies generating these numbers in terms of nominations:

9 Nominations

Everything Everywhere All at Once

8 Nominations

The Banshees of Inisherin, Elvis, The Fabelmans

6 Nominations

All Quiet on the Western Front, Top Gun: Maverick

5 Nominations

The Whale

4 Nominations

Babylon, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Tár

3 Nominations

Avatar: The Way of Water, The Batman, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Triangle of Sadness

2 Nominations

Living, The Woman King, Women Talking

1 Nomination

Aftersun, All That Breathes, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, Amsterdam, Argentina, 1985, Blonde, Decision to Leave, Descendant, Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, Empire of Light, Fire of Love, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Joyland, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris, Navalny, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, The Quiet Girl, RRR, She Said, Till, Tell It Like a Woman, Thirteen Lives, Turning Red, Wendell and Wild

Top Gun:

76th BAFTA Nominee Reactions

Five days ahead of the Academy Awards nominations, our friends across the pond have revealed their picks. The BAFTAs (Great Britain’s Oscars equivalent) take place March 13th with Richard E. Grant hosting.

After the long lists of potential contenders were revealed, it was an impressive showing for Edward Berger’s WWI epic All Quiet on the Western Front. Today’s nods solidified its status as a favorite of this branch with a terrific 14 nominations. In short, it showed up everywhere it could’ve with the exception of Best Actor.

While Quiet made noise, it was the opposite for Women Talking and Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery. Both were blanked. In particular, each were expected to contend in Adapted Screenplay (Talking is seen as a potential winner at Oscar). The Fabelmans only managed one mention. I projected that though not in the race where it materialized.

I went 83/119 on my forecasts. Let’s walk through each category with some quick takes.

Best Film

All Quiet on the Western Front, The Banshees of Inisherin, Elvis, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Tár

How I Did: 4/5

No shockers here as Elvis got in over Triangle of Sadness. Given the performance by Quiet today, it may battle it out with Banshees (which did well this morning) and Everything for the grand prize.

Director

Edward Berger (All Quiet on the Western Front), Park Chan-wook (Decision to Leave), Daniels (Everything Everywhere All at Once), Todd Field (Tár), Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin), Gina Prince-Bythewood (The Woman King)

How I Did: 4/6

My runner-up Chan-wook making the cut was not a surprise. Prince-Bythewood getting in is. They’re in over Alice Diop (Saint Omer) who was my own surprise pick and Charlotte Wells (Aftersun). It’s worth noting that Aftersun had a rather subpar day. We already knew Steven Spielberg (The Fabelmans) was out since he didn’t make the long list. This might be Berger v. Daniels.

Actressk

Cate Blanchett (Tár), Viola Davis (The Woman King), Danielle Deadwyler (Till), Ana de Armas (Blonde), Emma Thompson (Good Luck to You, Leo Grande), Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once)

How I Did: 5/6

Deadwyler over Lesley Manville in Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris. As projected, this is another high profile omission for Michelle Williams in The Fabelmans. Her Oscar hopes are shakier by the minute.

Actor

Austin Butler (Elvis), Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin), Brendan Fraser (The Whale), Daryl McCormack (Good Luck to You, Leo Grande), Paul Mescal (Aftersun), Bill Nighy (Living)

How I Did: 5/6

McCormack unexpectedly pops up instead of Felix Kammerer – the one miss for All Quiet. Noteworthy that Tom Cruise couldn’t land here for Top Gun: Maverick (with a so-so haul of 4 tech nods).

Supporting Actress

Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever), Hong Chau (The Whale), Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin), Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere All at Once), Dolly De Leon (Triangle of Sadness), Carey Mulligan (She Said)

How I Did: 4/6

The question here is whether Bassett keeps the victory streak alive or whether Condon, De Leon, or one of the others can disrupt a sweep. Curtis and Mulligan surface over my projected picks of Lashana Lynch (The Woman King) and Janelle Monáe (Glass Onion).

Supporting Actor

Brendan Gleeson (The Banshees of Inisherin), Barry Keoghan (The Banshees of Inisherin), Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All at Once), Eddie Redmayne (The Good Nurse), Albrecht Schuch (All Quiet on the Western Front), Micheal Ward (Empire of Light)

How I Did: 4/6

Another call for Redmayne. He and Schuch join this sextet instead of Woody Harrelson (Triangle of Sadness) and Brad Pitt (Babylon). Quan is the favorite.

Original Screenplay

The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Fabelmans, Tár, Triangle of Sadness

How I Did: 4/5

The sole nod for The Fabelmans is here and I thought Aftersun would be in the quintet instead. Will Banshees or Everything emerge?

Adapted Screenplay

All Quiet on the Western Front, Living, The Quiet Girl, She Said, The Whale

How I Did: 2/5

Ouch. As mentioned, no Glass Onion or Women Talking and I also had Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio listed. All Quiet, The Quiet Girl, and The Quiet Whale, errr just The Whale, were the trio I wasn’t counting on. Good luck selecting a winner here. I’m thinking Living at the moment.

Outstanding British Film

Aftersun, The Banshees of Inisherin, Brian and Charles, Empire of Light, Good Luck to You, Leo Grande, Living, Roald Dahl’s Matilda the Musical, See How They Run, The Swimmers, The Wonder

How I Did: 8/10

The only race with 10 contenders, one would think Banshees (as the only Best Film nominee) is out front. I had Blue Jean and Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris and not See How They Run or The Swimmers.

Outstanding Debut a British Writer, Director, or Producer

Aftersun, Blue Jean, Electric Malady, Good Luck to You, Leo Grande, Rebellion

How I Did: 3/5

Malady and Rebellion over Emily and Wayfinder. Before this morning, I would’ve thought Aftersun was a slam dunk. It likely still takes this, but Grande could threaten given its over performance.

Film Not in the English Language

All Quiet on the Western Front, Argentina, 1985, Corsage, Decision to Leave, The Quiet Girl

How I Did: 4/5

Had EO and not Corsage. The only way All Quiet doesn’t take this in a blowout is if it wins Best Film and the voters want to choose something else. That probably won’t occur, but if so, Decision to Leave is viable considering the directing nod.

Animated Film

Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, Turning Red

How I Did: 4/4

I won’t pat myself too hard on the back since the only category with a quartet wasn’t much of a challenge. Picking a recipient isn’t either as Pinocchio should prevail.

Documentary

All That Breathes, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, Fire of Love, Moonage Daydream, Navalny

How I Did: 3/5

I admittedly went with a couple spoilers in Hallelujah: Leonard Cohen, a Journey, a Song and The Ghost of Richard Harris. Fire and Navalny are present instead for what could be a preview of the Oscar five (or at least 4/5).

Casting

Aftersun, All Quiet on the Western Front, Elvis, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Triangle of Sadness

How I Did: 3/5

Chose Banshees and Fabelmans and not All Quiet (get used to hearing that) or Elvis.

Cinematography

All Quiet on the Western Front, The Batman, Elvis, Empire of Light, Top Gun: Maverick

How I Did: 3/5

Had Athena and Tár as opposed to The Batman and Elvis.

Costume Design

All Quiet on the Western Front, Amsterdam, Babylon, Elvis, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris

How I Did: 3/5

All Quiet and Amsterdam are suited for competition instead of Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (a notable snub) and Roald Dahl’s Matilda the Musical.

Editing

All Quiet on the Western Front, The Banshees of Inisherin, Elvis, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Top Gun: Maverick

How I Did: 4/5

Thought the Brits might select Moonage Daydream but it’s Banshees instead.

Make Up and Hair

All Quiet on the Western Front, The Batman, Elvis, Roald Dahl’s Matilda the Musical, The Whale

Didn’t have All Quiet or Matilda. Did have Amsterdam and Babylon.

Original Score

All Quiet on the Western Front, Babylon, The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

Two of the year’s most acclaimed scores (Empire of Light, Women Talking) fall out with All Quiet and Everything in.

Production Design

All Quiet on the Western Front, Babylon, The Batman, Elvis, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

How I Did: 2/5

Ouch Part II. Only correctly called Babylon and Elvis (the duo most likely to win). Incorrectly had Avatar: The Way of Water, Banshees, and Empire of Light.

Sound

All Quiet on the Western Front, Avatar: The Way of Water, Elvis, Tár, Top Gun: Maverick

How I Did: 4/5

Tár in, The Batman out.

Special Visual Effects

All Quiet on the Western Front, Avatar: The Way of Water, The Batman, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Top Gun: Maverick

All Quiet in over Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore. Despite a meager haul for Avatar, it should manage a victory in this race.

For those keeping score, that means these pictures garnered these numbers of nominations:

14 Nominations

All Quiet on the Western Front

10 Nominations

The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once

9 Nominations

Elvis

5 Nominations

Tár

4 Nominations

Aftersun, The Batman, Good Luck to You, Leo Grande, Top Gun: Maverick, The Whale

3 Nominations

Babylon, Empire of Light, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Living, Triangle of Sadness

2 Nominations

Avatar: The Way of Water, Decision to Leave, The Quiet Girl, Roald Dahl’s Matilda the Musical, She Said, The Woman King

1 Nomination

All That Breathes, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, Amsterdam, Argentina, 1985, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Blonde, Blue Jean, Brian and Charles, Corsage, Electric Malady, The Fabelmans, Fire of Love, The Good Nurse, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, Moonage Daydream, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris, Navalny, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, Rebellion, See How They Run, The Swimmers, Till, Turning Red, The Wonder

I’ll have final predictions up shortly before the ceremony’s airdate!

76th BAFTA Nominee Predictions

Arriving five days before Oscar nominations are the British Academy Film Awards – commonly known as the BAFTAs. On January 6th, the long lists in each category were revealed. There were major surprises like Avatar: The Way of Water not being in the list of 10 for Best Film consideration (same goes for its maker James Cameron in Director). Perhaps the biggest shock was Steven Spielberg being omitted from the Directing race. That’s partly why I have The Fabelmans generating a grand total of 1 nomination.

This is a show that isn’t afraid to go their own way. In 2021, while all 5 Best Film contenders were also BP contenders with the Academy, none of the six Best Actress hopefuls scored an Oscar nod (I doubt that happens again). Only two of the six Actor nominees got the Academy’s consideration.

You know the drill. For each competition, I’m giving you my picks (nominees can be between 4 and 10 and mostly 5 and 6 depending on the race) and a runner-up. Let’s go!

Best Film

All Quiet on the Western Front, The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Tár, Triangle of Sadness

Runner-Up: Top Gun: Maverick

Director

Edward Berger (All Quiet on the Western Front), Daniels (Everything Everywhere All at Once), Alice Diop (Saint Omer), Todd Field (Tár), Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin), Charlotte Wells (Aftersun)

Runner-Up: Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave

Actress

Cate Blanchett (Tár), Viola Davis (The Woman King), Ana de Armas (Blonde), Lesley Manville (Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris), Emma Thompson (Good Luck to You, Leo Grande), Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once)

Runner-Up: Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans

Actor

Austin Butler (Elvis), Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin), Brendan Fraser (The Whale), Felix Kammerer (All Quiet on the Western Front), Paul Mescal (Aftersun), Bill Nighy (Living)

Runner-Up: Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick

Supporting Actress

Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever), Hong Chau (The Whale), Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin), Dolly De Leon (Triangle of Sadness), Lashana Lynch (The Woman King), Janelle Monáe (Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery)

Runner-Up: Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Supporting Actor

Brendan Gleeson (The Banshees of Inisherin), Woody Harrelson (Triangle of Sadness), Barry Keoghan (The Banshees of Inisherin), Brad Pitt (Babylon), Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All at Once), Micheal Ward (Empire of Light)

Runner-Up: Ben Whishaw, Women Talking

Original Screenplay

Aftersun, The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Tár, Triangle of Sadness

Runner-Up: The Fabelmans

Adapted Screenplay

Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Living, She Said, Women Talking

Runner-Up: The Whale

Outstanding British Film

Aftersun, The Banshees of Inisherin, Blue Jean, Brian and Charles, Empire of Light, Good Luck to You, Leo Grande, Living, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris, Roald Dahl’s Matilda the Musical, The Wonder

Runner-Up: Lady Chatterley’s Lover

Outstanding Debut a British Writer, Director, or Producer

Aftersun, Blue Jean, Emily, Good Luck to You, Leo Grande, Wayfinder

Runner-Up: Donna

Film Not in the English Language

All Quiet on the Western Front, Argentina, 1985, Decision to Leave, EO, The Quiet Girl

Runner-Up: RRR

Animated Film

Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, Turning Red

Documentary

All That Breathes, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, The Ghost of Richard Harris, Hallelujah: Leonard Cohen, a Journey, a Song, Moonage Daydream

Runner-Up: Navalny

Casting

Aftersun, The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Fabelmans, Triangle of Sadness

Runner-Up: All Quiet on the Western Front

Cinematography

All Quiet on the Western Front, Athena, Empire of Light, Tár, Top Gun: Maverick

Runner-Up: The Banshees of Inisherin

Costume Design

Babylon, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Elvis, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris, Roald Dahl’s Matilda the Musical

Runner-Up: Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

Editing

All Quiet on the Western Front, Elvis, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Moonage Daydream, Top Gun: Maverick

Runner-Up: Aftersun

Make Up and Hair

Amsterdam, Babylon, The Batman, Elvis, The Whale

Runner-Up: All Quiet on the Western Front

Original Score

Babylon, The Banshees of Inisherin, Empire of Light, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Women Talking

Runner-Up: The Batman

Production Design

Avatar: The Way of Water, Babylon, The Banshees of Inisherin, Elvis, Empire of Light

Runner-Up: All Quiet on the Western Front

Sound

All Quiet on the Western Front, Avatar: The Way of Water, The Batman, Elvis, Top Gun: Maverick

Runner-Up: Thirteen Lives

Special Visual Effects

Avatar: The Way of Water, The Batman, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore, Top Gun: Maverick

Runner-Up: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

That equates to these movies garnering these numbers in nominations:

11 Nominations

The Banshees of Inisherin

8 Nominations

Everything Everywhere All at Once

7 Nominations

All Quiet on the Western Front

6 Nominations

Aftersun, Elvis

5 Nominations

Babylon, Empire of Light, Tár, Triangle of Sadness

4 Nominations

Top Gun: Maverick

3 Nominations

Avatar: The Way of Water, The Batman, Good Luck to You, Leo Grande, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Living, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris, The Whale

2 Nominations

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Blue Jean, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Moonage Daydream, Roald Dahl’s Matilda the Musical, The Woman King, Women Talking

1 Nomination

All That Breathes, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, Amsterdam, Argentina, 1985, Athena, Blonde, Brian and Charles, Decision to Leave, Emily, EO, The Fabelmans (!), Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore, The Ghost of Richard Harris, Hallelujah: Leonard Cohen, a Journey, a Song, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, The Quiet Girl, Saint Omer, She Said, Turning Red, Wayfinder, The Wonder

I’ll have a recap up Thursday!

95th Academy Awards Predictions: January 16th Edition

It has been two weeks since my last Oscar predictions and a lot has transpired since. The Golden Globes and Critics Choice Awards aired. SAG nominations came out. So did the BAFTA shortlists and PGA and DGA contenders.

All of this has made the puzzle a little clearer. Yet the fact remains – Oscar will Oscar when noms are released in a week. This is my penultimate forecast. Final predictions will arrive this weekend. Tonight’s estimates are your last look at rankings. It will simply be the listed picks a few days from now with commentary and a runner-up projection in each feature film category.

Here’s the latest developments as we are almost at the end of the line:

The Whale rises as it is back in my top 10 BP nominees. Women Talking falls out. A similar scenario in Supporting Actress as The Whale‘s Hong Chau is in over Women Talking‘s Claire Foy. After victories at the Globes and Critics Choice, Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever) vaults over Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin) for the #1 slot in Supporting Actress.

On the other hand, I’m putting Austin Butler (Elvis) back in first over Brendan Fraser (The Whale). This is essentially a coin flip with Colin Farrell from Banshees as a legit spoiler.

Edward Berger (All Quiet on the Western Front) returns to the directorial quintet and James Cameron (Avatar: The Way of Water) is out.

In Actress, Viola Davis (The Woman King) at last makes the cut with Margot Robbie (Babylon) dropping. That’s not the only news in this derby. I almost went with Ana de Armas (Blonde) instead of Davis. And there’s the recent development of Andrea Riseborough’s online campaign for the micro budget indie drama To Leslie. Numerous performers, including Cate Blanchett, have boarded the Riseborough bandwagon. Two weeks ago – she was on no one’s radar screen. Now the buzz is enough to put her in 8th.

You can read all the movement below and look for those FINAL predictions this weekend!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees

1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 3) (E)

4. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 4) (E)

5. Tár (PR: 5) (E)

6. Elvis (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 6) (-1)

8. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 10) (+2)

9. The Whale (PR: 12) (+3)

10. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 9) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

11. Babylon (PR: 11) (E)

12. RRR (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Women Talking (PR: 8) (-5)

14. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 14) (E)

15. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Woman King

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (E)

2. Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)

3. Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 3) (E)

4. Todd Field, Tár (PR: 4) (E)

5. Edward Berger, All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Joseph Kosinski, Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 10) (+3)

8. S.S. Rajamouli, RRR (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Ruben Ostlund, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Baz Luhrmann, Elvis (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Sarah Polley, Women Talking

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Cate Blanchett, Tár (PR: 1) (E)

2. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)

3. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (E)

4. Danielle Deadwyler, Till (PR: 4) (E)

5. Viola Davis, The Woman King (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Ana de Armas, Blonde (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Margot Robbie, Babylon (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Andrea Riseborough, To Leslie (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Olivia Colman, Empire of Light (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Naomi Ackie, Whitney Houston: I Wanna Dance with Somebody (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Jennifer Lawrence, Causeway

Emma Thompson, Good Luck to You, Leo Grande

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Austin Butler, Elvis (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Brendan Fraser, The Whale (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 3) (E)

4. Bill Nighy, Living (PR: 4) (E)

5. Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Paul Mescal, Aftersun (PR: 6) (E)

7. Hugh Jackman, The Son (PR: 7) (E)

8. Adam Sandler, Hustle (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Tom Hanks, A Man Called Otto (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Jeremy Pope, The Inspection (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Gabriel LaBelle, The Fabelmans

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 4) (+3)

2. Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Hong Chau, The Whale (PR: 9) (+5)

5. Dolly De Leon, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Jessie Buckley, Women Talking (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Janelle Monáe, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Claire Foy, Women Talking (PR: 5) (-4)

10. Carey Mulligan, She Said (PR: 10) (E)

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)

2. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (E)

3. Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 3) (E)

4. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans (PR: 4) (E)

5. Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Brad Pitt, Babylon (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Eddie Redmayne, The Good Nurse (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Brian Tyree Henry, Causeway (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Ben Whishaw, Women Talking (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Tom Hanks, Elvis (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (E)

4. Tár (PR: 4) (E)

5. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Aftersun (PR: 6) (E)

7. Babylon (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Decision to Leave (PR: 9) (+1)

9. The Menu (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Armageddon Time (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Bardo

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Women Talking (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Whale (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 2) (-1)

4. She Said (PR: 4) (E)

5. Living (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities

6. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 7) (E)

8. White Noise (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 9) (E)

10. Bones and All (PR: 10) (E)

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 1) (E)

2. Marcel the Shell with Shoes On (PR: 2) (E)

3. Turning Red (PR: 3) (E)

4. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish (PR: 4) (E)

5. Wendell and Wild (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Bad Guys (PR: 6) (E)

7. My Father’s Dragon (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Strange World (PR: 8) (E)

9. Inu-Oh (PR: 9) (E)

10. Lightyear (PR: 10) (E)

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 1) (E)

2. Decision to Leave (PR: 2) (E)

3. Close (PR: 6) (+3)

4. Argentina, 1985 (PR: 4) (E)

5. EO (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Saint Omer (PR: 3) (-3)

7. Bardo (PR: 5) (-2)

8. The Quiet Girl (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Joyland (PR: 9) (E)

10. Holy Spider (PR: 8) (-2)

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (PR: 1) (E)

2. All That Breathes (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Fire of Love (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Navalny (PR: 2) (-2)

5. The Territory (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Descendant (PR: 6) (E)

7. Moonage Daydream (PR: 7) (E)

8. Retrograde (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Bad Axe (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Last Flight Home (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Janes

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)

2. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (E)

4. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 4) (E)

5. Empire of Light (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Babylon (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Elvis (PR: Not Ranked)

8. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 7) (-1)

9. The Batman (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Nope (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Bardo

Everything Everywhere All at Once

Tár

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Elvis (PR: 1) (E)

2. Babylon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Woman King (PR: 4) (E)

5. Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Fabelmans (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Living (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 8) (E)

9. Corsage (PR: 9) (E)

10. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Banshees of Inisherin

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)

2. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 2) (E)

3. Elvis (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 9) (+3)

7. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Babylon (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Tár (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Women Talking

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Elvis (PR: 2 (+1)

2. The Whale (PR: 1) (-1)

3. The Batman (PR: 3) (E)

4. Babylon (PR: 4) (E)

5. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 6) (E)

7. Amsterdam (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Blonde (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Emancipation (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Crimes of the Future (PR: 10) (E)

Best Original Score

Predicted Nomnees:

1. The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (E)

2. Babylon (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Women Talking (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 4) (-2)

7. The Woman King (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 6) (-3)

10. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “Naatu Naatu” from RRR (PR: 2) (+1)

2. “Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (-1)

3. “Lift Me Up” from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 3) (E)

4. “Ciao Papa” from Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 4) (E)

5. “Applause” from Tell It Like a Woman (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. “This Is a Life” from Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 5) (-1)

7. “Carolina” from Where the Crawdads Sing (PR: 7) (E)

8. “New Body Rhumba” from White Noise (PR: 8) (E)

9. “Good Afternoon” from Spirited (PR: Not Ranked)

10. “Stand Up” from Till (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

“Nothing is Lost (You Give Me Strength)” from Avatar: The Way of Water

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Elvis (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 2) (-2)

5. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Fabelmans (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 9) (E)

10. The Batman (PR: 10) (E)

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)

2. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 2) (E)

3. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Elvis (PR: 3) (-1)

5. The Batman (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 6) (E)

7. Babylon (PR: 7) (E)

8. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 8) (E)

9. Moonage Daydream (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 1) (E)

2. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Batman (PR: 3) (E)

4. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness (PR: 4) (E)

5. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 6) (E)

7. Nope (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Thirteen Lives (PR: 8) (E)

9. Jurassic World: Dominion (PR: 9) (E)

10. Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore (PR: 10) (E)

That equates to these movies garnering these numbers in terms of nominations:

9 Nominations

The Fabelmans

8 Nominations

Everything Everywhere All at Once

7 Nominations

All Quiet on the Western Front, The Banshees of Inisherin, Elvis, Top Gun: Maverick

6 Nominations

Avatar: The Way of Water

5 Nominations

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, The Whale

4 Nominations

Babylon, Tár

3 Nominations

The Batman, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Triangle of Sadness

2 Nominations

Living, The Woman King, Women Talking

1 Nominations

All That Breathes, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, Argentina, 1985, Close, Decision to Leave, Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, Empire of Light, EO, Fire of Love, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris, Navalny, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, RRR, She Said, Tell It Like a Woman, The Territory, Till, Turning Red, Wendell and Wild

75th DGA Nominations Reaction

It wasn’t just the Screen Actors Guild revealing their list of nominees today as the Directors Guild of America (DGA) put out the five filmmakers vying for their top prize.

First things first. The three pictures that I believe have the best shot at taking BP at the Oscars all saw their conductors brought to this stage. That would be the Daniels (Everything Everywhere All at Once), Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin), and Steven Spielberg (The Fabelmans). This trio were all obvious ones to predict and that I did.

Yet I ultimately went 3 for 5. That’s because my picks of James Cameron (Avatar: The Way of Water) and Baz Luhrmann (Elvis), makers of two popular commercial moneymakers, were left on the cutting room floor. Instead we got the surprising selection of Joseph Kosinski, maker of the year’s biggest moneymaker domestically with Top Gun: Maverick. I’ve only had Kosinski in my top 10 possibilities for the Academy on a couple of occasions. He’s never been in my high five.

The directing category at the Oscars usually match DGA on a 4 for 5 accuracy scale. You have to go back to 2009 to find the last time they matched 5 for 5. In other words, I wouldn’t rush to put Kosinski in the quintet.

My other miss was Todd Field, conductor of Tár. His inclusion was more anticipated and I had him as my runner-up.

Assuming we don’t get a total match, what’s the state of the Academy competition? The Daniels and McDonagh and Spielberg (despite the BAFTA snub) are probably safe and Field seems right up the Academy’s alley.

The fifth slot, while it could be Kosinski, is still available for Cameron or Luhrmann. Charlotte Wells (Aftersun) is beginning to get some ink. And we could absolutely still see a foreign director slide in like Edward Berger for All Quiet on the Western Front. Longer shots in that vein are S.S. Rajamouli (RRR) and Park Chan-wook (Decision to Leave).

Who got hurt by being left out today? Certainly Sarah Polley for Women Talking and Ruben Ostlund for Triangle of Sadness. Either one of them could have used this as a momentum boost. Same for Babylon‘s Damien Chazelle.

The DGA’s will be presented on February 18th and my winning projection will be made shortly beforehand.

75th Directors Guild of America Awards Nomination Predictions

In addition to the SAG Awards announcing their nominees on Wednesday, we also have the Director Guild of America (DGA) revealing its five contenders for Outstanding Directing in a Feature Film.

This is a race that usually matches the Academy’s eventual 5 nominees with 80% accuracy. In the past decade, there’s been a 4 for 5 correlation in 8 of those years. There hasn’t been a 5 for 5 match since 2009.

Even though BAFTA shockingly left Steven Spielberg off its shortlist last week, he should make the cut here for The Fabelmans. It would also be quite unexpected for Dan Kwan and Daniel Scheinert to miss for Everything Everywhere All at Once.

After that, it gets interesting. I do believe James Cameron is recognized for Avatar: The Way of Water. The DGA has recently named pics in the sci-fi genre that the Academy surprisingly ignored. Recent examples are Ridley Scott (The Martian) and Denis Villeneuve (Dune).

On the flip side, the DGA has left off foreign filmmakers that the Academy does recognize. This includes Thomas Vinterberg (Another Round) and Ryusuke Hamaguchi (Drive My Car) in the preceding two cycles. That could make the odds longer here for Edward Berger (All Quiet on the Western Front), Park Chan-wook (Decision to Leave), or S.S. Rajamouli (RRR) than at the Oscars.

My hunch is that the trio of Todd Field (Tár), Baz Luhrmann (Elvis), and Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin) are angling for the final two slots with Sarah Polley (Women Talking) as a potential spoiler. I’ve got Field in my Academy quintet right now but missing here.

DGA PREDICTIONS

James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water

Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Baz Luhrmann, Elvis

Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin

Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans

Runner-Up: Todd Field, Tár

All Quiet Makes Noise at the BAFTA Shortlists

Edward Berger’s All Quiet on the Western Front made an unexpected amount of noise when the British Academy of Film and Television Art (BAFTA) announced their shortlists prior to the final nominations on January 19th. The long lists can vary in size and so can the numbers of eventual nominees coming in two weeks.

It’s a little confusing and hard to keep track of, but one thing is certain. World War I epic Quiet is eligible for the most races with 15 followed by The Banshees of Inisherin at 14. The superb performance from the former only helps its recent surge in the Oscar race (where I elevated it to my 10 for BP contenders on Monday).

Not all pictures had good showings from our British colleagues. This is especially true for The Fabelmans (with a shockingly subpar showing) and Women Talking.

Let’s go through each feature length shortlist with some general comments. Predictions for the nominees will come shortly before the 19th when I’ll delve a bit deeper.

Best Film

Aftersun

All Quiet on the Western Front

The Banshees of Inisherin

Elvis

Everything Everywhere All at Once

The Fabelmans

Living

Tár

Top Gun: Maverick

Triangle of Sadness

Half of these features will make the cut and it’s hard to imagine All Quiet not doing so considering its haul. Same for Banshees would could be a soft frontrunner. It’s also worth noting Everything did just fine. Key pics you won’t find here: Avatar: The Way of Water, Babylon, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, and Women Talking.

Outstanding British Film

Aftersun

The Banshees of Inisherin

Blue Jean

Brian and Charles

Emily

Good Luck to You, Leo Grande

Lady Chatterley’s Lover

Living

The Lost King

Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris

Roald Dahl’s Matilda the Musical

See How They Run

The Swimmers

The Wonder

Plenty of British titles here that aren’t expected to make a dent with the Academy’s voters. Only three of these hopefuls made Best Film and Banshees should have a leg up on Aftersun (which performed splendidly with BAFTA) and Living.

Outstanding Debut by a British Writer, Director or Producer

Aftersun

Blue Jean

Donna

Electric Malady

Emily

Good Luck to You, Leo Grande

Nothing Compares

Rebellion

See How They Run

Wayfinder

This one should be Aftersun all the way considering it’s the only entry vying for the top prize.

Film Not in the English Language

All Quiet on the Western Front

Argentina, 1985

Bardo

Close

Corsage

Decision to Leave

EO

Holy Spider

The Quiet Girl

RRR

While Saint Omer made the director cut, its miss is notable here. Bardo got in, but popped up nowhere else. Even more surprisingly – same goes for RRR. This should be an All Quiet win.

Documentary

All That Breathes

All the Beauty and the Bloodshed

A Bunch of Amateurs

Fire of Love

The Ghost of Richard Harris

Hallelujah: Leonard Cohen, A Journey, A Song

Louis Armstrong’s Black & Blues

McEnroe

Moonage Daydream

Navalny

Like the Academy, Good Night Oppy couldn’t make the shortlist while Descendant is another high profile snub.

Animated Film

The Amazing Maurice

The Bad Guys

Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

Lightyear

Marcel the Shell with Shoes On

Minions: The Rise of Gru

Puss in Boots: The Last Wish

Turning Red

4 of 8 go through. While Pinocchio is out front – don’t sleep on Marcel.

Director

Colm Bairéad, The Quiet Girl

Edward Berger, All Quiet on the Western Front

Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave

Chinonye Chukwu, Till

Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Alice Diop, Saint Omer

Sara Dosa, Fire of Love

Todd Field, Tár

Joseph Kosinski, Top Gun: Maverick

Marie Kreutzer, Corsage

Baz Luhrmann, Elvis

Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin

Sarah Polley, Women Talking

Gina Prince-Bythewood, The Woman King

Maria Schrader, She Said

Charlotte Wells, Aftersun

BAFTA puts up 8 male and 8 female filmmakers on the shortlist before it shrinks to 6 (three of each gender). I’ll have more on who I think gets in later, but how about who didn’t!?!? There’s James Cameron for Avatar (which had a mediocre performance overall). The giant shocker was not seeing Steven Spielberg for The Fabelmans. And this one feels like it could have Oscar implications. I’ve had him listed #1 in Director for months. That placement is in serious jeopardy. I think he still gets makes the Academy’s quintet, but I suspect his #1 status will take a hit when I update in a couple of days.

Leading Actress

Naomi Ackie, Whitney Houston: I Wanna Dance with Somebody

Ana de Armas, Blonde

Cate Blanchett, Tár

Jessica Chastain, The Good Nurse

Viola Davis, The Woman King

Danielle Deadwyler, Till

Lesley Manville, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris

Emma Thompson, Good Luck to You, Leo Grande

Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans

Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once

It’s a bit unexpected seeing Ackie and Chastain over some picks BAFTA might’ve gone for like Vicky Krieps in Corsage and Florence Pugh in The Wonder. Same goes (sort of) for Olivia Colman in Empire of Light. However, it’s worth pointing out that BAFTA also ignored her for The Father and The Lost Daughter (the Academy didn’t). And you won’t see Babylon‘s Margot Robbie in the mix either.

Leading Actor

Austin Butler, Elvis

Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick

Harris Dickinson, Triangle of Sadness

Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin

Brendan Fraser, The Whale

Daniel Kaluuya, Nope

Felix Kammerer, All Quiet on the Western Front

Daryl McCormack, Good Luck to You, Leo Grande

Paul Mescal, Aftersun

Bill Nighy, Living

I have a feeling the six eventual nominees may not include Dickinson, Kaluuya, Kammerer, and McCormack but that’s not a final call. Notable names out include Diego Calva (Babylon), Ralph Fiennes (The Menu), Hugh Jackman (The Son, which was blanked) and Jeremy Pope (The Inspection).

Supporting Actress

Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Hong Chau, The Whale

Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin

Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Dolly De Leon, Triangle of Sadness

Lashana Lynch, The Woman King

Janelle Monae, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

Carey Mulligan, She Said

Emma Thompson, Roald Dahl’s Matilda the Musical

Aimee Lou Wood, Living

Ms. Thompson scored an unanticipated double nod thanks to this one as this 2022 hard to figure out Supporting Actress derby stayed that way. Like the Globes, no Jessie Buckley or Claire Foy from Women Talking.

Supporting Actor

Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin

Tom Hanks, Elvis

Woody Harrelson, Triangle of Sadness

Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin

Brad Pitt, Babylon

Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Eddie Redmayne, The Good Nurse

Albrecht Schuch, All Quiet on the Western Front

Micheal Ward, Empire of Light

Ben Whishaw, Women Talking

Whishaw being the only acting nominee for Women Talking kinda came out of nowhere. So did familiar faces like Hanks and Harrelson over either of the Fabelmans contenders – Paul Dano and Judd Hirsch. Pitt at last lands Babylon an above the line nom.

Original Screenplay

Aftersun

The Banshees of Inisherin

Decision to Leave

Elvis

Everything Everywhere All at Once

The Fabelmans

Good Luck to You, Leo Grande

The Menu

Tár

Triangle of Sadness

Dare I say there’s no real surprises in this race.

Adapted Screenplay

All Quiet on the Western Front

Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

Living

The Quiet Girl

She Said

Top Gun: Maverick

The Whale

Women Talking

The Wonder

This could’ve been where White Noise got a lone nod, but nope. Considering the so-so performance of Women Talking, I wouldn’t automatically think it wins. But… what does?

***For the rest of these races, I’m listing just the shortlisted pics. Forecasted nominees are coming soon enough! I will say The Fabelmans is MIA in places where it was expected to be (especially Cinematography and Score).

Casting

Aftersun

All Quiet on the Western Front

The Banshees of Inisherin

Elvis

Everything Everywhere All at Once

The Fabelmans

Living

Roald Dahl’s Matilda the Musical

Tár

Triangle of Sadness

Cinematography

All Quiet on the Western Front

Amsterdam

Athena

Babylon

The Banshees of Inisherin

The Batman

Elvis

Empire of Light

Tár

Top Gun: Maverick

Costume Design

All Quiet on the Western Front

Amsterdam

Babylon

The Banshees of Inisherin

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Corsage

Elvis

Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris

Roald Dahl’s Matilda the Musical

Editing

Aftersun

All Quiet on the Western Front

Babylon

The Banshees of Inisherin

Decision to Leave

Elvis

Everything Everywhere All at Once

Moonage Daydream

Top Gun: Maverick

Triangle of Sadness

Make Up & Hair

All Quiet on the Western Front

Amsterdam

Babylon

The Batman

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Blonde

Elvis

Emancipation

Roald Dahl’s Matilda the Musical

The Whale

Original Score

All Quiet on the Western Front

Babylon

The Banshees of Inisherin

The Batman

Empire of Light

Everything Everywhere All at Once

Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

Tár

Women Talking

The Wonder

Production Design

All Quiet on the Western Front

Avatar: The Way of Water

Babylon

The Banshees of Inisherin

The Batman

Elvis

Empire of Light

Everything Everywhere All at Once

The Fabelmans

Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

Special Visual Effects

All Quiet on the Western Front

Avatar: The Way of Water

The Batman

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness

Everything Everywhere All at Once

Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore

Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

Jurassic World: Dominion

Top Gun: Maverick

Sound

All Quiet on the Western Front

Avatar: The Way of Water

Babylon

The Batman

Elvis

Everything Everywhere All at Once

Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

Tár

Thirteen Lives

Top Gun: Maverick

Keep an eye out for BAFTA final predictions from these shortlists and the same for the Golden Globes and Critics Choice!

2022 Oscar Predictions: January 2nd Edition

My first Oscar predictions for this new year (coming 22 days prior to nomination morning) comes with a change in Best Picture and other major races.

While I still believe that Babylon could make the BP ten despite mixed reviews and poor word-of-mouth, I have dropped it in favor of Triangle of Sadness.

In Best Director, James Cameron (Avatar: The Way of Water) is in the five to the detriment of Women Talking‘s Sarah Polley.

While Best Actress remains intact, Brendan Fraser is back at #1 for The Whale over Austin Butler as Elvis. This is really semantics. I believe Fraser, Butler, and Colin Farrell are basically 1a, 1b, and 1c at this juncture. It may take upcoming precursors to make it clearer. There’s another shift as Tom Cruise (Top Gun: Maverick) gets the five spot over Hugh Jackman for The Son. I almost went with Aftersun‘s Paul Mescal.

In Supporting Actress, Claire Foy returns over her Women Talking costar Jessie Buckley. This category is still the trickiest acting derby to peg.

We also have 4 new number ones elsewhere. In Documentary Feature, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed vaults again to first. Elvis shimmies to the top in Costume Design while dropping to second in Makeup and Hairstyling with The Whale back at 1. The Fabelmans tops Original Score.

You can read all the movement below!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 3) (E)

4. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 4) (E)

5. Tár (PR: 7) (+2)

6. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 6) (E)

7. Elvis (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Women Talking (PR: 8) (E)

9. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 13) (+4)

10. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 9) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

11. Babylon (PR: 10) (-1)

12. The Whale (PR: 11) (-1)

13. RRR (PR: 14) (+1)

14. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 12) (-2)

15. The Woman King (PR: 15) (E)

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (E)

2. Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)

3. Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 3) (E)

4. Todd Field, Tár (PR: 4) (E)

5. James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sarah Polley, Women Talking (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Edward Berger, All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 7) (E)

8. Ruben Ostlund, Triangle of Sadness (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Baz Luhrmann, Elvis (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Joseph Kosinski, Top Gun: Maverick (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Damien Chazelle, Babylon

S.S. Rajamouli, RRR

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Cate Blanchett, Tár (PR: 1) (E)

2. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)

3. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (E)

4. Danielle Deadwyler, Till (PR: 4) (E)

5. Margot Robbie, Babylon (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Viola Davis, The Woman King (PR: 6) (E)

7. Ana de Armas, Blonde (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Olivia Colman, Empire of Light (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Jennifer Lawrence, Causeway (PR: 9) (E)

10. Emma Thompson, Good Luck to You, Leo Grande (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Naomi Ackie, Whitney Houston: I Wanna Dance with Somebody

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Brendan Fraser, The Whale (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Austin Butler, Elvis (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 3) (E)

4. Bill Nighy, Living (PR: 4) (E)

5. Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Paul Mescal, Aftersun (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Hugh Jackman, The Son (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Tom Hanks, A Man Called Otto (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Gabriel LaBelle, The Fabelmans (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Jeremy Pope, The Inspection (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Diego Calva, Babylon

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 1) (E)

2. Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)

3. Dolly de Leon, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Claire Foy, Women Talking (PR: 9) (+4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jessie Buckley, Women Talking (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Janelle Monae, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Hong Chau, The Whale (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Carey Mulligan, She Said (PR: 10) (E)

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)

2. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (E)

3. Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 3) (E)

4. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans (PR: 4) (E)

5. Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Brian Tyree Henry, Causeway (PR: 6) (E)

7. Ben Whishaw, Women Talking (PR: 7) (E)

8. Brad Pitt, Babylon (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Tom Hanks, Elvis (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Eddie Redmayne, The Good Nurse (PR: 8) (-2)

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (E)

4. Tár (PR: 4) (E)

5. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Aftersun (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Menu (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Babylon (PR: 8) (E)

9. Decision to Leave (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Bardo (PR: 10) (E)

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Women Talking (PR: 1) (E)

2. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 3) (+1)

3. The Whale (PR: 4) (+1)

4. She Said (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Living (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. White Noise (PR: 6) (E)

7. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 8) (+1)

8. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 9) (E)

10. Bones and All (PR: 10) (E)

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 1) (E)

2. Marcel the Shell with Shoes On (PR: 2) (E)

3. Turning Red (PR: 3) (E)

4. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish (PR: 5) (+1)

5. My Father’s Dragon (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Bad Guys (PR: 6 (E)

7. Wendell and Wild (PR: 7) (E)

8. Strange World (PR: 8) (E)

9. Inu-Oh (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Lightyear (PR: 9) (-1)

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 1) (E)

2. Decision to Leave (PR: 2) (E)

3. Saint Omer (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Argentina, 1985 (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Bardo (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Close (PR: 3) (-3)

7. EO (PR: 7) (E)

8. Holy Spider (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Joyland (PR: 8) (-1)

10. The Quiet Girl (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (PR: 3) (+2)

2. Navalny (PR: 1) (-1)

3. All That Breathes (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Fire of Love (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Territory (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Descendant (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Moonage Daydream (PR: 7) (E)

8. Bad Axe (PR: 10) (+2)

9. The Janes (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Retrograde (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)

2. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (E)

4. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 4) (E)

5. Babylon (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Empire of Light (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 7) (E)

8. Bardo (PR: 8) (E)

9. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 9) (E)

10. Tár (PR: 10) (E)

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Elvis (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Babylon (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Woman King (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Fabelmans (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Living (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 8) (E)

9. Corsage (PR: 9) (E)

10. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Women Talking

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)

2. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (E)

4. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 4) (E)

5. Elvis (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Women Talking (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Babylon (PR: 6) (-1)

8. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 8) (E)

9. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 9) (E)

10. Tár (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Whale (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Elvis (PR: 1) (-1)

3. The Batman (PR: 3) (E)

4. Babylon (PR: 4) (E)

5. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Emancipation (PR: 7) (E)

8. Amsterdam (PR: 8) (E)

9. Blonde (PR: 9) (E)

10. Crimes of the Future (PR: 10) (E)

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Women Talking (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Babylon (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 6) (E)

7. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 7) (E)

8. The Woman King (PR: Not Ranked)

9. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 9) (E)

10. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

She Said

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)

2. “Naatu Naatu” from RRR (PR: 2) (E)

3. “Lift Me Up” from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 3) (E)

4. “Ciao Papa” from Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 4) (E)

5. “This Is a Life” from Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 9) (+4)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Applause” from Tell It Like a Woman (PR: 5) (-1)

7. “Carolina” from Where the Crawdads Sing (PR: 6) (-1)

8. “New Body Rhumba” from White Noise (PR: 8) (E)

9. “Stand Up” from Till (PR: 7) (-2)

10. “Nothing is Lost (You Give My Strength)” from Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 10) (E)

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 2) (E)

3. Elvis (PR: 3) (E)

4. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Fabelmans (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 5) (-2)

8. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 9) (E)

10. The Batman (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Banshees of Inisherin

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)

2. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 2) (E)

3. Elvis (PR: 3) (E)

4. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Batman (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 6) (E)

7. Babylon (PR: 7) (E)

8. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 8) (E)

9. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 9) (E)

10. Moonage Daydream (PR: 10) (E)

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 1) (E)

2. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Batman (PR: 3) (E)

4. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness (PR: 4) (E)

5. Nope (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 5) (-1)

7. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Thirteen Lives (PR: 8) (E)

9. Jurassic World: Dominion (PR: 9) (E)

10. Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore (PR: 10) (E)

That equates to these films achieving these numbers in terms of nominations:

11 Nominations

The Fabelmans

8 Nominations

The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once

7 Nominations

Avatar: The Way of Water, Elvis, Top Gun: Maverick

6 Nominations

Babylon

5 Nominations

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

4 Nominations

All Quiet on the Western Front, Tár, Women Talking

3 Nominations

The Batman, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Triangle of Sadness, The Whale

2 Nominations

Living

1 Nomination

All That Breathes, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, Argentina, 1985, Bardo, Decision to Leave, Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, Fire of Love, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, My Father’s Dragon, Navalny, Nope, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, RRR, Saint Omer, She Said, The Territory, Till, Turning Red, The Woman King