It’s going to be a busy Turkey Day weekend at the box office as six new titles find their way into the multiplex. Disney’s Frozen, the action pic Homefront with Jason Statham and James Franco, and the musical ensemble Black Nativity open wide while The Book Thief expands to around 1000 theaters and Spike Lee’s Oldboy and the Judi Dench drama Philomena play to around 500 screens. Whew.
You can my individual prediction posts on each new picture here:
Typically, during Thanksgiving the leftovers have very small drops because audiences like to catch up during the holidays. The one exception should be The Hunger Games: Catching Fire. In its second weekend, the pic should easily lose more than half the crowd of its debut weekend. The last two Twilight flicks opened the same pre-Thanksgiving weekend and saw second week falls in the 70% range. I don’t have Games falling quite that far.
Since there are so many newbies this weekend, I’ll change my normal Top Five predictions to Top Ten. Here they are:
1. The Hunger Games: Catching Fire
Predicted Gross: $56.8 million (representing a drop of 64%)
Predicted Gross: $48.3 million ($69.1 million for five-day opening)
3. Black Nativity
Predicted Gross: $19.3 million ($26.8 million for five-day opening)
4. Thor: The Dark World
Predicted Gross: $9.5 million (representing a drop of 32%)
Predicted Gross: $8.7 million ($12.8 million for five-day opening)
6. The Best Man Holiday
Predicted Gross: $7.1 million (representing a drop of 42%)
7. The Book Thief
Predicted Gross: $5.6 million ($7.2 million for five-day opening)
8. Delivery Man
Predicted Gross: $5.5 million (representing a drop of 30%)
9. Free Birds
Predicted Gross: $4.7 million (representing a drop of 12%)
Predicted Gross: $3.9 million ($5.1 million for five-day opening)
This means I am predicting Oldboy opens outside of the top ten with a $2.4 million Friday-to-Sunday opening tally and $3.5 million from Wednesday-to-Sunday.
I’ll have final results Sunday on the blog… have Turkey Day friends!