The Devil Wears Prada 2, despite a two decade long break from its predecessor, seems to be fresh in the consciousness of moviegoers. The sequel is expected to make a killing at the box office with Meryl Streep, Anne Hathaway, Emily Blunt, and Stanley Tucci reprising their roles from the 2006 comedy. Justin Theroux and Kenneth Branagh join the fun with David Frankel back directing.
Prada part one managed to get awards attention 20 years ago. Meryl Streep landed her 14th nomination for Best Actress (she’s now up to 21), falling short to Helen Mirren as The Queen. The fashion centric flick also contended for Costume Design. At the Golden Globes, Streep won lead Actress in a Musical or Comedy. The pic itself was up for Best Film in that Musical or Comedy derby while Emily Blunt was among the quintet vying for Supporting Actress.
The original posted scores of 75% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 62 Metacritic. The follow-up? 75% on RT with 61 on Metacritic! That tracks with the general consensus that 2 is a worthy if unspectacular continuation for these characters. I doubt Streep gets Academy nod #22 for this but she could certainly get her 35th Golden Globe at-bat. A spot in Best Musical or Comedy will be dependent on level of competition.
At the Oscars, Costume Design is obviously in play. Then there’s the original song “Runway” from Lady Gaga and Doechii. It could mark the former’s 4th nom in Original Song. She won with “Shallow” from A Star Is Born while “Til It Happens to You” (2015’s The Hunting Ground) and “Hold My Hand” (2022’s Top Gun: Maverick) made the dance. The Prada track is more uptempo and may not be as Academy-friendly as the aforementioned ballads. I still wouldn’t count her out. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
As we do every year on the blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.
It begins with the ten BP contenders and then alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. If you missed my post covering Bugonia, you can find it linked here:
If Academy voters wish to honor a nominee that many viewers have seen, F1 is a sensible road considering it made nearly $200 million domestically and $442 million worldwide. The racing drama with Brad Pitt made the top 10 cut for PGA and NBR. F1, from the director of 2022 BP nominee Top Gun: Maverick, was also nominated for Film Editing, Sound, and Visual Effects.
The Case Against F1:
The four total nominations ties three other movies for lowest mentions among the BP ten. F1 wasn’t nominated for the highest honor at the Golden Globes or Critics Choice. It is the only contender without a nomination in directing, screenplay, or any of the acting derbies. If Academy voters wish to honor something that did well at the box office, they have an even more viable option in Sinners.
The Verdict:
F1 is probably 10th out of the 10 possibilities in the largest race though it could manage to pick up gold in Sound.
Arriving 15 years after a sequel that followed the original by 28 years, Tron: Ares hits theaters October 10th. Disney’s sci-fi action threequel has Joachim Rønning taking over directorial duties from Joseph Kosinski, who made 2010’s Tron: Legacy before helming Top Gun: Maverick and F1. Jared Leto, Greta Lee, Evan Peters, Jodie Turner-Smith, Hasan Minhaj, Arturo Castro, Gillian Anderson and Jeff Bridges (reprising his role from the first two) star.
The franchise certainly has its followers though it’s fair to wonder if younger viewers will turn out. They might not be as familiar with the source material from 2010 (let alone 1982). Legacy performed decently with a $44 million opening and $172 eventual domestic gross. It made just under $400 million worldwide. Ares would be fortunate to replicate that and projections have it starting in the same range (not adjusted for inflation). I’ll say this manages just under that figure.
Tron: Ares opening weekend prediction: $42.6 million
Dinosaurs seek to rule the Independence Day weekend courtesy of the seventh feature in the 32-year-old franchise with Jurassic World Rebirth. It is the only wide release newcomer stomping into multiplexes over the holiday and you can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:
The Jurassic series has proven itself to be critic proof in recent years and that should come into play with the new installment starring Scarlett Johansson. An opening weekend in nine figures is unlikely since it premieres on Wednesday (the last three World‘s achieved $100M+ out of the gate but debuted on traditional Friday to Sunday frames). I’m projecting a three-day in the $80 million ballpark with $130M+ when factoring in Wednesday and Thursday.
After a sizzling start, F1 with Brad Pitt will drop to second. With an A Cinemascore grade and appeal to adult moviegoers, you can expect impressive holds in the weekends to come. This may only ease around 30% and don’t be shocked if it’s even a little less for a strong runner-up position.
Holdovers will populate 3-6 with How to Train Your Dragon firmly in third and the lackluster Elio in fourth. Numbers five and six could be close between sequels 28 Years Later and M3GHAN 2.0, which short-circuited over the weekend.
Here’s how I see it playing out:
1. Jurassic World Rebirth
Predicted Gross: $80.8 million (Friday to Sunday); $133 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
2. F1
Predicted Gross: $39.7 million
3. How to Train Your Dragon
Predicted Gross: $12.9 million
4. Elio
Predicted Gross: $6.2 million
5. 28 Years Later
Predicted Gross: $4.5 million
6. M3GAN 2.0
Predicted Gross: $4.2 million
Box Office Results (June 27-29)
F1 or F1: The Movie, Joseph Kosinski’s follow-up to Top Gun: Maverick, revved up impressive results with $57 million, lapping my $46.2 million prediction. It also performed with top-notch earnings overseas. As mentioned, word-of-mouth should keep this in the zeitgeist over the weekends to come. A sequel is already in the planning stages.
How to Train Your Dragon, after two weeks atop the charts, was second with $19.5 million. That’s in line with my $19.1 million forecast as the live-action remake has fired up $200 million in three weeks.
Elio, after a worst ever Pixar premiere, didn’t hold up well in third with $10.4 million. I was more generous at $13 million as its sophomore plunge was a steep 50% (especially for its studio). This is undoubtedly one of the summer’s most significant flops.
Same goes for M3GAN 2.0. The sequel eschewed horror for a campier sci-fi tone and audiences rejected it. The fourth place showing was a DOA $10.2 million compared to the original’s $30 million. There’s no spinning that result for Blumhouse.
Finally, zombie threequel 28 Years Later plummeted 67% in its second outing with $9.7 million compared to my $12.6 million take. The ten-day tally is $50 million.
F1 (or F1: The Movie) hopes to be #1 when it debuts June 27th. The racing drama comes from Top Gun: Maverick maker Joseph Kosinski with Brad Pitt in the lead. Damson Idris, Kerry Condon, Tobias Menzies, and Javier Bardem provide support.
There are some reports that the budget is around $300 million so profitability is a question mark. Its title sport is more popular overseas so Warner Bros is certainly banking on impressive foreign grosses. Reviews are mostly complimentary with 87% on Rotten Tomatoes and Metacritic at 70.
I believe the star power and solid word-of-mouth should be enough to power F1 to the top spot. $50 million plus would be a welcome sight for its studio considering the price tag. I’ll project it doesn’t quite get there.
F1 (also styled as F1: The Movie) blasts into IMAX screens and other venues on June 27th, marking Joseph Kosinski’s theatrical follow-up to Top Gun: Maverick. The exploration of the Formula One World Championship is headlined by Brad Pitt with costars including Damson Idris, Kerry Condon, Tobias Menzies, and Javier Bardem.
Critics are mostly championing this an effective summer blockbuster with 84% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 67 Metacritic. There are some gripes about the screenplay and even quibbles with how the racing sequences are choreographed.
While Maverick was nominated in six categories at the 95th Academy Awards including Best Picture, F1‘s possibilities are more limited. Sound seems the most feasible with Cinematography, Editing, and Hans Zimmer’s Score having shots. BP is likely out of reach and same goes for the cast despite praise for Pitt and the relatively unknown (though not for long) Idris. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Karate Kid: Legends hopes to kick into high gear at multiplexes this weekend. We also have horror pic Bring Her Back seeking to scare up decent dollars. My detailed prediction posts on the newcomers can be accessed here:
The recent success of Cobra Kai on Netflix could assist with Legends performing well. Ralph Macchio and Jackie Chan headline the sixth feature in the franchise that began over 40 years ago. My low 20s estimate puts it in third.
Bring Her Back is the sophomore feature from the Philippou brothers after their 2023 summer sleeper Talk to Me. My high single digits figure puts it in the fourth just ahead of Final Destination Bloodlines in its third outing.
I have the top two slots still belonging to Lilo & Stitch and Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning after they propelled the Memorial Day weekend to its highest earnings ever. My guesstimates have both easing in the low to mid 50s percent range.
Here’s how I have the top 5 playing out:
1. Lilo & Stitch
Predicted Gross: $66.4 million
2. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning
Predicted Gross: $28.7 million
3. Karate Kid: Legends
Predicted Gross: $21.3 million
4. Bring Her Back
Predicted Gross: $8.5 million
5. Final Destination Bloodlines
Predicted Gross: $8 million
Box Office Results (May 23-26)
The Mouse House was in celebration mode as Lilo & Stitch achieved the largest Memorial Day weekend in history and surpassed the previous $160 million four-day record held by Tom Cruise’s Top Gun: Maverick. The live-action remake of the 2002 animated feature made $146 million over the Friday to Sunday portion of the holiday frame while amassing $182.6 million counting Monday. While that’s under my respective predictions of $159.7 million and $196.6 million, it is still a scorching start for the Disney property as it will vie for highest domestic earner of summer 2025.
While Tom Cruise’s record was broken by Lilo, he set one of his own as Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning was second with $64 million for the three-day and $79 million for the four-day. That’s right on target with my $64.4 million and $80.8 million projections as the eighth and allegedly final Ethan Hunt adventure set a personal best for the franchise. It needed to do so considering the reported $400 million price tag.
Final Destination Bloodlines was third with $24.1 million from Friday to Monday and that’s on pace with my $24.9 million call. The sequel has taken in an impressive $94 million in two weeks.
Thunderbolts*/The New Avengers was fourth with $12.2 million, a shade below my $14 million forecast. The MCU property sits at $174 million in four weeks.
Sinners rounded out the top five with $11.9 million (I went higher at $14.5 million) for $258 million in six weeks.
The Last Rodeo, the latest faith-based drama from Angel Studios, lassoed $5.4 million (Friday-Sunday) and $6.9 million (FRI-MON) in sixth. That’s a bit below my estimates of $6.4 million and $7.8 million.
Posting a commendable per screen average, critically lauded comedy Friendship with Tim Robinson and Paul Rudd was seventh in its nationwide expansion to just over 1000 venues. It made $4.5 million over the three-day and $5.7 million adding Monday. That’s slightly more than my $4.2 million and $5.1 million predictions. It now has $8 million total in its coffers.
Finally, A Minecraft Movie lost steam due to Lilo with $2.9 million in eighth. I was more generous at $4.9 million. The blockbuster has brought in a massive $421 million after eight weeks.
It’s been three weeks since I’ve updated my predictions for the 98th Academy Awards and a little thing called the Cannes Film Festival has happened since then. The French extravaganza has become increasingly important when figuring out your eventual Oscar ballots. To what extent? Last year’s winner Anora premiered there and took the Palme d’Or while fellow nominees Emilia Pérez and The Substance were also unveiled. In 2023, Anatomy of a Fall‘s Palme victory translated to a BP nomination while The Zone of Interest and Killers of the Flower Moon were also on the slate. 2022 Palme recipient Triangle of Sadness was part of the Academy’s BP ten while Elvis and Top Gun: Maverick premiered out of competition. You get the idea.
This year’s proceedings bestowed top prize to Jafar Panahi’s It Was Just an Accident. And while a Palme d’Or certainly increases a picture’s chances in BP, I’m not ready to vault it into the Oscar top 10. As for the Grand Prix winner (essentially runner-up), I already had Joachim Trier’s Sentimental Value in my ten and the Cannes premiere solidified that projection.
There were performances that gained momentum like Value’s quadrology of Renate Reinsve, Stellan Skarsgård, Elle Fanning, and Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass. Same goes for Jennifer Lawrence in Die, My Love and Cannes Best Actor Wagner Moura for The Secret Agent, who goes from unranked to my top 5.
Per usual, there were movies whose awards consideration hopes faded. That list includes The History of Sound, Alpha, Eddington, and The Phoenician Scheme.
Yet for all the Cannes chatter, my new #1 in BP has nothing to do with that event. I’ve had Luca Guadagnino’s After the Hunt slotted atop that chart over the last few weeks. Truth be told, that’s plain ole guesswork since it has yet to screen. I’m replacing it with Ryan Coogler’s vampire tale Sinners, the box office phenomenon that opened in April. Do I think it’s going to win BP? Probably not though it’s obviously far too early for that call. I do think that it and Sentimental Value (also rising) are the two pics that have been viewed that will not miss the cut.
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (Previous Ranking: 3) (+2)
2. After the Hunt (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Marty Supreme (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Wicked: For Good (PR: 4) (-1)
6. Jay Kelly (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Hamnet (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 10) (+1)
10. The Life of Chuck (PR: 9) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
11. One Battle After Another (PR: 11) (E)
12. Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Bugonia (PR: 12) (-1)
14. It Was Just an Accident (PR: Not Ranked)
15. The Secret Agent (PR: Not Ranked)
16. Frankenstein (PR: 14) (-2)
17. Sound of Falling (PR: Not Ranked)
18. The Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 17) (-1)
19. No Other Choice (PR: 15) (-4)
20. Die, My Love (PR: 16) (-4)
21. Ann Lee (PR: 19) (-2)
22. Rental Family (PR: 22) (E)
23. F1 (PR: 21) (-2)
24. The Smashing Machine (PR: 23) (-1)
25. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Highest 2 Lowest
Michael – the Michael Jackson biopic is reportedly moving to 2026
Is This Thing On?
Alpha
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Luca Guadagnino, After the Hunt (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Andrew Patterson, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Jon M. Chu, Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Noah Baumbach, Jay Kelly (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia (PR: 9) (-1)
11. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Kieber Mendonça Filho, The Secret Agent (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Scott Cooper, Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 14) (E)
15. James Cameron, Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 13) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice
Lynne Ramsay, Die, My Love
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Julia Roberts, After the Hunt (PR: 1) (E)
2. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Amanda Seyfried, Ann Lee (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Tessa Thompson, Hedda (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Emma Mackey, Ella McCay (PR: 11) (+1)
11. June Squibb, Eleanor the Great (PR: 9) (-2)
12. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 12) (E)
13. Amy Adams, At the Sea (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Lucy Liu, Rosemead (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Eva Victor, Sorry, Baby (PR: 14) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Margot Robbie, A Big Bold Beautiful Journey
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)
2. Jeremy Allen White, Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 3) (+1)
3. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Matthew McConaughey, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 6) (E)
7. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 7) (E)
8. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone (PR: 9) (E)
10. Denzel Washington, Highest 2 Lowest (PR: Not Ranked – moved from supporting)
11. Colin Farrell, The Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine (PR: 12) (E)
13. Willem Dafoe, Late Fame (PR: 11) (-2)
14. Brendan Fraser, Rental Family (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Matthew McConaughey, The Lost Bus (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Paul Mescal, Hamnet (moved to supporting)
Jaafar Jackson, Michael
Lee Byung-hun, No Other Choice
Andrew Scott, Pressure
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ayo Edebiri, After the Hunt (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Angelina LookingGlass, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 3) (E)
4. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Laura Dern, Jay Kelly (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 8) (E)
9. Hailee Steinfeld, Sinners (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value (PR: Not Ranked)
11. Regina Hall, One Battle After Another (PR: 11) (E)
12. Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine (PR: 10) (-2)
13. Emily Watson, Hamnet (PR: 13) (E)
14. Tilda Swinton, The Ballad of a Small Player (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Thomasin McKenzie, Ann Lee
Glenn Close, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery
Greta Lee, Late Fame
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (PR: 1) (E)
2. Andrew Garfield, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (E)
3. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (E)
4. Jeremy Strong, Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (PR: Not Ranked – moved from lead actor)
7. Mark Hamill, The Life of Chuck (PR: 7) (E)
8. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (E)
9. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked: For Good (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Robert Pattinson, Die, My Love (PR: Not Ranked)
11. Stephen Graham, Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: Not Ranked)
The 8th and seemingly last installment of the franchise that first hit multiplexes in 1996 drops May 23rd with Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning. Tom Cruise is back in super spy mode with Christopher McQuarrie directing his fourth Mission in a row. Costars include Hayley Atwell, Ving Rhames, Simong Pegg, Henry Czerny, Angela Bassett, Esai Morales, Pom Klementieff, Holt McCallany, Janet McTeer, Nick Offerman, Hannah Waddingham, Shea Whigham, Greg Tarzan Davis, Charles Parnell, and Katy O’Brian.
With a gargantuan budget of reportedly $400 million, Paramount is banking on the series going out with a financial bang. The grosses of the previous three installments have been rather consistent. 2015’s Rogue Nation debuted to $55 million with a $195 million eventual domestic take. Fallout in 2018 came in with $61 million for starters and $220 million overall. 2023’s Dead Reckoning arrived with high expectations as it was pegged to bask in the afterglow of Top Gun: Maverick‘s massive grosses the summer before. It didn’t quite turn out that way with a $54 million premiere and $172 million stateside.
Final Reckoning should see increased numbers due to the finale status. While critical reaction is mostly positive (83% on RT), many reviews are saying it among the weakest of the octet. My hunch is the three-day is higher than Dead Reckoning with a four-day holiday total in the high 70s to low 80s.
Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning opening weekend prediction: $64.4 million (Friday to Sunday); $80.8 million (Friday to Monday)
Blogger’s Update (05/21/25): I am upping my Lilo & Stitch estimate considerably from $118.6 million from Friday to Sunday and $143.7 million from Friday to Monday to $159.7 million for the three-day and $196.6 million for the four-day. That would easily be a new Memorial Day weekend record.
23 summers ago, Disney’s animated Lilo & Stitch narrowly opened in second to Minority Report with Tom Cruise. This Memorial Day weekend, the Mouse House’s live-action (and also animated) remake will attempt to outpace Cruise’s Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning. That’s a mission it should achieve with room to spare.
Dean Fleischer Camp, maker of the acclaimed Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, is behind the camera. Chris Sanders, who wrote and directed the 2002 original, still provides the voice of Stitch with Maia Keoloha as Lilo. The supporting cast includes Sydney Elizebeth Agudong, Billy Magnussen, Hannah Waddingham, Courtney B. Vance, Zach Galifianakis, Tia Carrere, Amy Hill, and Jason Scott Lee.
Expectations are high for a project that once was anticipated to be a Disney+ streaming premiere. Tracking suggests a nine digit performance over the holiday frame. The studio is no stranger to Memorial Day outputs and that includes these remakes. In 2019, Aladdin took in $91 million from Friday to Sunday and $116 million when factoring in Monday. Two years ago, The Little Mermaid made $95 million for the three-day and $118 million over four.
Lilo took in $273 million worldwide for its run nearly a quarter century ago and spawned direct-to-video sequels. A nostalgia factor and a dearth of competition for family audiences (as A Minecraft Movie winds down) could mean an even stronger opening than the aforementioned titles. I’ll say it manages to get close to $120 million from Friday to Sunday and over $140 million adding Monday. That would give it the second all-time Memorial weekend behind Top Gun: Maverick (more Cruise comparisons!) and just ahead of Disney’s Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men’s Chest.
Lilo & Stitch opening weekend prediction: $159.7 million (Friday to Sunday); $196.6 million (Friday to Monday)
For my Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning prediction, click here:
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