Category: Box Office Predictions/Results

November 6-8 Box Office Predictions

After October closed out with an expected whimper, four movies hope to kickstart a busy November at multiplexes. Toho sequel Godzilla Minus Zero, animated Dr. Seuss adaptation The Cat in the Hat, Indian action fantasy Ramayana: Part 1, and Martin McDonagh’s black comedy Wild Horse Nine all debut. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on them here:

Godzilla Minus Zero Box Office Prediction
The Cat in the Hat Box Office Prediction
Ramayana: Part 1 Box Office Prediction
Wild Horse Nine Box Office Prediction

There could be a battle for #1, but in the matchup of Godzilla vs. Hat, I’m giving the giant lizard the advantage. Predecessor Godzilla Minus One from 2023 debuted to $11 million. However, its reputation has grown and anticipation for the follow-up might have it tripling that start in the mid 30s.

The Cat in the Hat hopes to play well over the holiday season. I wouldn’t be shocked if my estimate is a tad high though I am giving it the benefit of the doubt with a premiere just over $30 million.

The biggest question mark is Ramayana: Part 1. Pre-sales are encouraging for the highly priced tagged epic. It opens on Thursday and that should contribute to a front-loaded total. I think it gets past $10 million from Friday to Sunday for a third place showing.

As for Wild Horse Nine, it may only get to lower single digits on around 1000 screens. It’ll hope for awards buzz to keep it in venues moving forward. My $2.9 million figure puts it outside the top five.

Holdover and current champ You Can See Everything should drop to fourth. Wildwood is likely to experience a smaller dip than Clayface and allow the former to be fifth. Here’s how I see it shaking out:

1. Godzilla Minus Zero

Predicted Gross: $36.2 million

2. The Cat in the Hat

Predicted Gross: $30.5 million

3. Ramayana: Part 1

Predicted Gross: $11.9 million (Friday to Sunday); $17.1 million (Thursday to Sunday)

4. You Can See Everything

Predicted Gross: $7.3 million

5. Wildwood

Predicted Gross: $5.8 million

6. Clayface

Predicted Gross: $5.4 million

Box Office Results (October 30-November 1)

In a Halloween frame where no new titles entered the wide release marketplace, buzzy documentary You Can See Everything vaulted to first after two weeks in second. A24’s Oscar contender took in $11.4 million, below my $12.9 million prediction for a three-week total of $64 million. It is doing numbers that the genre doesn’t do.

Clayface dropped to second with $11 million, under my $13.5 million projection. The DC Universe body horror flick has made $44 million after two weeks. That’s not bad considering the reported $40 million budget.

Laika Animation’s Wildwood eased only 27% in its sophomore outing with $8.9 million, a tad more than my $8 million take. The critically acclaimed stop-motion effort has $27 million in its coffers.

Wicker with Olivia Colman also held impressively with $4.3 million in weekend #2. I was close at $4 million as the ribald comedy has made $13 million.

Street Fighter rounded out the top five with $3.6 million (I said $4 million). The video game adaptation has $53 million after three weeks.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Wild Horse Nine Box Office Prediction

Wild Horse Nine was trotted out at the Venice Film Festival to Oscar buzz and the black comedy from Martin McDonagh opens theatrically November 6th. The writer/director’s follow-up to Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri and The Banshees of Inisherin stars John Malkovich, Sam Rockwell, Steve Buscemi, Tom Waits, Parker Posey, and Mariana di Girolamo.

With 92% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 79 on Metacritic, Nine is expected to contend for awards noms like the filmmaker’s predecessors. I’m not sure that translates to notable box office figures. 2022’s Banshees was up for nine Academy Awards, but took in just $10 million domestically. One could argue that COVID was still having an effect at that time.

Nine is rumored to have a smallish wide release around 1000 venues next weekend. That’ll temper its numbers and my estimate puts it just under $3 million for starters. It’ll hope for eventual Oscar attention to keep it afloat.

Wild Horse Nine opening weekend prediction: $2.9 million

For my Godzilla Minus Zero prediction, click here:

Godzilla Minus Zero Box Office Prediction

For my The Cat in the Hat prediction, click here:

The Cat in the Hat Box Office Prediction

For my Ramayana: Part 1 prediction, click here:

Ramayana: Part 1 Box Office Prediction

Ramayana: Part 1 Box Office Prediction

With a reported budget of half a billion dollars for part 1 and its sequel, Ramayana: Part 1 hits domestic venues on November 5th hoping to make some impressive figures stateside while earning the bulk of its bucks overseas. The Indian Hindi-language fantasy epic comes from Nitesh Tiwari with a cast including Ranbir Kapoor, Yash, Sai Pallavi, Ravi Dubey, and Sunny Deol. Legendary composer Hans Zimmer shares score duties with A.R. Rahman in the latter’s first contribution to Indian cinema.

Leading into Diwali week, preview sales are encouraging as this looks to place third behind other newcomers Godzilla Minus Zero and The Cat in the Hat. One comparison is 2017’s Baahubali 2: The Conclusion which kicked off with $10 million.

Grosses should be front-loaded for Ramayana and that might apply to the Thursday number (including Wednesday night screenings). I’ll say this gets beyond $10 million for the traditional weekend with mid single digits for Thursday itself.

Ramayana: Part 1 opening weekend prediction: $11.9 million (Friday to Sunday); $17.1 million (Thursday to Sunday)

For my Godzilla Minus Zero prediction, click here:

Godzilla Minus Zero Box Office Prediction

For my The Cat in the Hat prediction, click here:

The Cat in the Hat Box Office Prediction

For my Wild Horse Nine prediction, click here:

Wild Horse Nine Box Office Prediction

Godzilla Minus Zero Box Office Prediction

Three years after Godzilla Minus One was a critical darling and an Oscar winner for its visuals, Toho looks to post a monster number for follow-up Godzilla Minus Zero starting November 6th. Takashi Yamazaki is back in the director’s chair along with returning cast members Ryunosuke Kamiki, Minami Hamabe, Hidetaka Yoshioka, Yuki Yamada, Kuranosuke Sasaki, Sakura Ando, and Miou Tanka. Newcomers to the franchise (going strong for over 70 years) include Min Tanaka, Masami Nagasawa, and Jun Kunimura.

Zero debuted at the New York Film Festival late last month. The reception was similar to its predecessor’s with 96% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 78 Metacritic. 2023’s Minus One has had time to build an even bigger following since its theatrical performance. Back in December of that year, it opened with $11.4 million and legged out impressively to $57 million. That made it the highest grossing live-action Japanese feature of all time stateside.

The sequel should surpass that with little trouble. I believe $30 plus million out of the gate is achievable with room to spare.

Godzilla Minus Zero opening weekend prediction: $36.2 million

For my The Cat in the Hat prediction, click here:

The Cat in the Hat Box Office Prediction

For my Ramayana: Part 1 prediction, click here:

Ramayana: Part 1 Box Office Prediction

For my Wild Horse Nine prediction, click here:

Wild Horse Nine Box Office Prediction

The Cat in the Hat Box Office Prediction

Arriving in theaters nearly 70 years after its source material hit bookshelves, The Cat in the Hat opens November 6th. The animated take on the Dr. Seuss classic has Bill Hader voicing the title character. Other behind the mic talent includes Matt Berry, Quinta Brunson, Xochitl Gomez, Giancarlo Esposito, and America Ferrera. Erica Rivinoja and Alessandro Carloni direct.

The Warner Bros animation project comes at a time when the studio could use a solid performer after a year filled with duds. Eight years ago, Illumination Entertainment put out an animated version of The Grinch which made off with $67 million out of the gate. In 2003, a live-action version of Cat with Mike Myers did not meet expectations with poor reviews and middling box office. The $38 million debut was front-loaded with a $101 million eventual domestic take. This version may earn right around that figure with hopes that its word-of-mouth and eventual staying power is stronger. I’m going to put it a bit lower. That could mean decent subsequent weekends as the holidays approach though it’s unlikely to post Grinch level numbers.

The Cat in the Hat opening weekend prediction: $30.5 million

For my Godzilla Minus Zero prediction, click here:

Godzilla Minus Zero Box Office Prediction

For my Ramayana: Part 1 prediction, click here:

Ramayana: Part 1 Box Office Prediction

For my Wild Horse Nine prediction, click here:

Wild Horse Nine Box Office Prediction

October 30-November 1 Box Office Predictions

Halloween is typically a quiet time at the box office and that should play out in 2026 with it falling on a Saturday. There are no significant wide releases other than Christmas at the Kringles. I didn’t do an individual prediction post for the Briarcliff release. The comedic horror flick is slated to release on approximately 1800 screens and I don’t think it’ll make enough cash (maybe $2 to $2.5 million) to place in the top five.

That leaves holdovers for what could be a close contest between current champ Clayface and You Can See Everything, which has held the runner-up spot for two weeks in a row. I have the former dropping in the mid 40s with the latter easing in the mid 30s.

After kicking off on the higher end of its expected range, Wildwood should remain in third with Street Fighter and Wicker in a battle for fourth and fifth position. Here’s how I have it shaking out:

1. Clayface

Predicted Gross: $13.5 million

2. You Can See Everything

Predicted Gross: $12.9 million

3. Wildwood

Predicted Gross: $8 million

4. Wicker

Predicted Gross: $4 million

5. Street Fighter

Predicted Gross: $4 million

Box Office Results (October 23-25)

Sporting a reported $40 million budget (certainly small for the DC Universe), Clayface made $24 million for a slightly better debut than my $22 million prediction. The R-rated comic book adaptation’s results are alright considering the price tag as it hopes viewers will keep coming during the Halloween frame.

A24’s acclaimed doc You Can See Everything expanded wide and was second with $19.5 million. I went a little higher at $23.8 million though it can boast a better per theater average than Clayface. The probable Oscar contender has amassed $45 million.

Laika Animation’s Wildwood capitalized on rave reviews in third with $12.2 million. That’s still not great when factoring the $100 million plus budget, but it’s stronger than the lower forecasts including my own at $7.2 million.

Video game adaptation Street Fighter was knocked down from 1st to 4th in its sophomore outing with $8.5 million. That’s a whopping 72% plummet and under my $11.6 million projection. The two-week total is $46 million.

Wicker with Olivia Colman and Alexander Skarsgård built a commendable female following in fifth with $5.7 million. I went with $4.9 million.

Jessica Chastain’s horror pic Other Mommy was sixth with $3.9 million. My guess? $3.9 million! The three-week tally is $51 million.

Seventh place went to Sense and Sensibility as the Jane Austen adaptation made $3.3 million, not matching my $4.2 million call. The ten-day gross is an underwhelming $13 million.

Whalefall sunk to eighth in frame #2 with $3 million (I said $3.7 million). The whale tale is also at $13 million.

Last (and least), Taika Waititi’s Klara and the Sun had a dark debut in 15th (!) with just $701,000 and an average of under $800 per venue. Oof. I said it would do $2.3 million.

And that’s all for now, folks! Until next time…

October 23-25 Box Office Predictions

**Blogger’s Update (10/21): I didn’t do an individual post for Wicker with Olivia Colman, but with the news that it is debuting on over 1400 screens, my $4.9 million puts it in fifth place on my chart.

Clayface from the DC Universe was, until very recently, expected to easily rule the box office charts this weekend. That may be challenged from a previously unanticipated source. We also have Laika Animation’s critically acclaimed Wildwood and Taika Waititi’s far from acclaimed sci-fi dramedy Klara and the Sun starring Jenna Ortega premiering. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:

Clayface Box Office Prediction
Wildwood Box Office Prediction
Klara and the Sun Box Office Prediction

Clayface could gross high teens for a floor to possibly mid to high 20s in the best case scenario. My estimate puts it right in the middle of the range in the low 20s. That’s far from impressive but not too shabby considering its reported $40 million budget.

As mentioned, that figure was thought to be enough to give it bragging rights at #1. Then You Can See Everything happened. Nathan Fielder and Lance Oppenheim’s documentary about imprisoned Theranos founder Elizabeth Holmes exceeded all expectations with a sizzling #2 debut on 855 screens (more on its opening below). It is slated to grow to around 2600 venues this weekend. I think the word-of-mouth could mean a low to mid 20s output in its sophomore frame. That means I’m giving it the edge for the top spot.

Wildwood, despite glowing reviews, may fall under $10 million for a fourth place start. As for Klara, my meager $2.3 million guesstimate might mean it struggles to even make the top 10.

Current champ Street Fighter should be third with a low 60s percentage fall while holdovers Sense and Sensibility, Whalefall, and Other Mommy all post similar grosses.

Here’s how I see it all shaking out:

1. You Can See Everything

Predicted Gross: $23.8 million

2. Clayface

Predicted Gross: $22 million

3. Street Fighter

Predicted Gross: $11.6 million

4. Wildwood

Predicted Gross: $7.2 million

5. Wicker

Predicted Gross: $4.9 million

6. Sense and Sensibility

Predicted Gross: $4.2 million

7. Other Mommy

Predicted Gross: $3.9 million

8. Whalefall

Predicted Gross: $3.7 million

Box Office Results (October 16-18)

Video game based Street Fighter kicked off in line with expectations at $30.7 million for first, managing to outdo my $24.5 million take. I look for it to fade quickly.

A24 nailed down the second highest non-concert documentary opening in history behind 2004’s Fahrenheit 9/11 with You Can See Everything. With over $18k per screen, the doc (which no one knew existed until it surprise screened at Telluride) was runner-up with $15.6 million. That’s well beyond my $8.9 million prediction as its future looks rosy.

Other Mommy dropped to third with $8.2 million (a 70% plummet) compared to my $9.1 million call. The horror flick with Jessica Chastain sits at $44 million after two weeks.

Survival tale Whalefall flopped in fourth with $7.8 million, in line with my $8.2 million projection. Mixed reviews helped sink it.

Sense and Sensibility rounded out the top five with a respectable $7.2 million, ahead of my $5.3 million forecast. The latest Jane Austen adaptation may hold up fairly in subsequent weekends.

Finally, Verity was sixth with $6 million (I said $5.9 million) as the romantic thriller brought its three-week tally to $65 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Klara and the Sun Box Office Prediction

Taika Waititi’s latest dramedy is Klara and the Sun and it’s out October 23rd. Based on the Kazuo Ishiguro 2021 novel, Jenna Ortega stars in the sci-fi tale with Amy Adams, Mia Tharia, Aran Murphy, Steve Buscemi, and Natasha Lyonne providing support.

After its premiere at the London Film Festival, negative word-of-mouth start peeking out. Sun now sports a 25% Rotten Tomatoes score with 27 on Metacritic. This will struggle mightily to find an audience. There is little hope this will approach the $33 million domestic gross that greeted the filmmaker’s awards player Jojo Rabbit in 2019.

My forecast puts this in line with Waititi’s 2023 predecessor Next Goal Wins. The soccer tale also whiffed with critics and underperformed with a mere $2.5 million in its opening. I don’t see a compelling argument for Sun eclipsing it.

Klara and the Sun opening weekend prediction: $2.3 million

For my Clayface prediction, click here:

Clayface Box Office Prediction

For my Wildwood prediction, click here:

Wildwood Box Office Prediction

Wildwood Box Office Prediction

Stop-motion animated fantasy Wildwood is the latest effort for distributor Laika and their first this decade. Directed by Travis Knight, the voice cast includes Peyton Elizabeth Lee, Jacob Tremblay, Carey Mulligan, Mahershala Ali, Awkwafina, Angela Bassett, Jake Johnson, Charlie Day, Amandla Stenberg, Jemaine Clement, Tom Waits, and Richard E. Grant. Following its premiere at the London Film Festival, it hits domestic screens on October 23rd.

Critics are on it side and it could be a frontrunner for Best Animated Feature prize at the Oscars. Rotten Tomatoes is at 100% with 86 on Metacritic. Laika’s projects are typically acclaimed and all five previous features have been Academy nominated in its genre category. That hasn’t always translated to box office dollars stateside.

In 2016, Kubo and the Two Strings (also directed by Knight) debuted with $12.6 million and that’s under what predecessors Coraline, ParaNorman, and The Boxtrolls started off with. That trio all premiered between $14-17 million. The last Laika tale, 2019’s Missing Link, was a major commercial failure with $5.9 million out of the gate.

I’m expecting Wildwood to do better, but not much better.

Wildwood opening weekend prediction: $7.2 million

For my Clayface prediction, click here:

Clayface Box Office Prediction

For my Klara and the Sun prediction, click here:

Klara and the Sun Box Office Prediction

Clayface Box Office Prediction

Clayface is not your typical DC Universe flick and it might not reach the numbers of most other entries in the franchise. The R-rated thriller containing elements of body horror comes from director James Watkins with Tom Rhys Harries as the title character. Costars include Naomi Ackie, David Dencik, Max Minghella, and Eddie Marsan.

It’s been a rough year for Warner Bros and DC was part of that with the massive underperformance of Supergirl. It opened to a less than expected $38 million and was heavily front-loaded with just $72 million domestically. Guesstimates aren’t as high for Clayface and it only sports a $40 million budget compared to Supergirl‘s (at least) $170 million.

Unless this picks up steam in the coming week, low to mid 20s is the likely result.

Clayface opening weekend prediction: $22 million

For my Wildwood prediction, click here:

Wildwood Box Office Prediction

For my Klara and the Sun prediction, click here:

Klara and the Sun Box Office Prediction