Category: Box Office Predictions/Results

Transformers: Rise of the Beasts Box Office Prediction

Representing the longest drought between entries, it’s been nearly four and a half years without Optimus onscreen. Paramount is hoping audiences will be primed for the franchise’s return as Transformers: Rise of the Beasts debuts on June 9th. This is the seventh installment of the series that started in 2007 with Michael Bay helming the first five. He produces while Steven Caple Jr. (best known for Creed II) directs. The non-voiceover cast includes Anthony Ramos, Dominique Fishback, Luna Lauren Vélez, Tobe Ngigwe, and Michael Kelly. Those voices behind the various title bots include Peter Cullen, Ron Perlman, Peter Dinklage, Michelle Yeoh, Lisa Koshy, Michaela Jaé Rodriguez, Pete Davidson, Colman Domingo, John DiMaggio, and David Sobolov.

Beasts serves as a direct follow-up to 2018’s Bumblebee and a prequel to editions I-V. The Transformers pics have certainly seen their fortunes fade in recent years. Domestically the peak was Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen, which earned $402 million overall stateside. The first three titles all grossed north of $300 million. By 2017, Transformers: The Last Knight managed $130 million. Bumblebee was a smidge under at $127 million.

To be fair, expectations for Bumblebee weren’t nearly as high and it rode decent reviews and solid buzz to a commendable leg out over the holidays. The lengthy break may not help Beasts and there’s no returning human stars from previous adventures.

This only needs to top $21 million to avoid a franchise low three-day beginning. It should have no trouble there. The better comp is probably The Last Knight which premiered with $44 million for its Friday to Sunday take (though it made $68 million when you count its Wednesday start). I’ll say Beasts falls just shy of that.

Transformers: Rise of the Beasts opening weekend prediction: $43.2 million

June 2-4 Box Office Predictions

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse swings into multiplexes for a highly likely first place debut while The Boogeyman lurks for a start in third position. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse Box Office Prediction
The Boogeyman Box Office Prediction

Spidey is the follow-up to 2018’s Oscar-winning animated adventure Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse. In addition to plenty of awards, it had an A+ Cinemascore grade and nearly $200 million in domestic sales. Anticipation should be elevated for the sequel (with part 3 coming next year). That’s why some estimates have this as lofty as $100 million. I’m a tad more conservative, but I’ll say it clears $90 million.

The Boogeyman should take advantage of its PG-13 rating, the connection to Stephen King for the source material, and that there’s been a slight lull between horror flicks. Heck – it probably helps that it’s called The Boogeyman. I could see this opening similarly to The Black Phone and Smile. That would mean high teens or low 20s for a solid third place showing.

Memorial Day weekend champ The Little Mermaid should drop to second after a mixed bag of a debut (more on that below). A mid 50s dip (similar to the live-action Aladdin four years ago) would mean a number slightly north of $40 million.

The 4-5 slots should belong to sequel holdovers Fast X and Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3. It could be a close race between the two as they each may earn a tad over $10 million.

Here’s how I see it looking:

1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Predicted Gross: $93.4 million

2. The Little Mermaid

Predicted Gross: $40.5 million

3. The Boogeyman

Predicted Gross: $18.7 million

4. Fast X

Predicted Gross: $10.1 million

5. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3

Predicted Gross: $9.6 million

Box Office Results (May 26-29)

As expected, Disney’s The Little Mermaid (updating the 1989 classic) swam to the top of the charts. It did so on the lower end of its expected range. Over the four-day holiday, the total was $118.8 million. That’s below my take of $132.1 million. While nowhere near the starts of Beauty and the Beast or The Lion King from 2017 and 2019, it is on pace with what Aladdin accomplished over Memorial Day four years back.

Fast X slipped to second with $28.5 million and that managed to exceed my $25.4 million estimate. Vin Diesel and company have seen the beginning to the end of their two-decade long franchise earn $113 million thus far.

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 was third with $26.8 million, on target with my $26 million call. The MCU threequel stands at $306 million.

The Super Mario Bros. Movie took fourth place with $8.2 million (I said $7.6 million) to bring its massive haul to $560 million.

Spots 5-7, as anticipated, went to three newcomers. I didn’t correctly call their placements. The Machine with popular standup and podcaster Bert Kreischer was fifth with $5.8 million, ahead of my $3.7 million forecast. While not spectacular, it’s on the better end of its predicted range.

About My Father, featuring another popular standup Sebastian Maniscalco alongside Robert De Niro, was on the lesser end of the range. The family comedy was sixth with $5.3 million. I said a touch more at $6.2 million.

Finally, Gerard Butler’s action pic Kandahar bombed in seventh with only $2.8 million. I was more generous at $4.2 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Catch my podcast where I discuss all things box office by searching Movies at the Speed of Speculation wherever you like to stream. Until next time…

The Boogeyman Box Office Prediction

20th Century Studios is hoping plenty of viewers will be creeped out by The Boogeyman on June 2nd. The PG-13 horror pic is based on a half century old short story by Stephen King with Rob Savage directing. Cast members include Sophie Thatcher (no relation that I’m aware of), Chris Messina, Vivien Lyra Blair, and David Dastmalchian.

Budgeted at just over $40 million, this was originally slated for a streaming premiere on Hulu. Encouraging test screenings changed the plan and now it’s being unveiled in approximately 3000 venues.

This genre has seen its share of successes as of late. There are two comps from 2022 that seem appropriate. The Black Phone was a summer release with some similar themes and based on a novel by King’s son Joe Hill. It started off with $23.6 million. Last fall’s Smile is similar in the sense that it was supposed to roll out on Paramount+ and the pattern was altered due to its positive audience scores. A $22.6 million debut was the result.

The Rotten Tomatoes score is 64%. While under the 83% of Phone and 79% from Smile, that’s just fine to keep the buzz decent. I can’t find a compelling reason why this wouldn’t hit the high teens or low 20s as well.

The Boogeyman opening weekend prediction: $18.7 million

For my Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse prediction, click here:

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse Box Office Prediction

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse Box Office Prediction

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse swings into multiplexes on June 2nd and hopes to start the month off on a high note. The animated sequel is the follow-up to 2018’s Into the Spider-Verse, which drew widespread critical acclaim resulting in a Best Animated Feature Oscar. It also grossed nearly $200 million domestically and $384 million worldwide.

There’s a trio of directors in Joaquim Dos Santos, Kemp Powers, and Justin K. Thompson. Shameik Moore is back behind the mic as Miles/Spidey. Other performers voicing additional versions of the hero and other characters include Hailee Steinfeld (back as Spider-Woman), Brian Tyree Henry, Luna Lauren Velez, Jake Johnson, Jason Schwartzman, Issa Rae, Karan Soni, Daniel Kaluuya, Oscar Isaac, Greta Lee, Shea Whigham, and Andy Samberg.

Parts 2 and 3 of the franchise were assembled at the same time. Spider-Man: Beyond the Spider-Verse is slated for March 2024. In December 2018, part 1 started out with $35 million before legging out impressively to a $190 million stateside haul. Achieving a rare A+ Cinemascore rating, it stands to reason that audiences should be pumped for the sequel.

In the summer (as opposed to December), tentpoles are expected to post a gigantic opening immediately. Some forecasts have their projection as rosy as $100 million. That’s certainly possible, but I’ll temper expectations a bit and say $90-95 million is probably where this Verse starts.

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse opening weekend prediction: $93.4 million

For my The Boogeyman prediction, click here:

The Boogeyman Box Office Prediction

May 26-29 Box Office Predictions

Blogger’s Note (05/24): I am revising my Kandahar prediction from $7.9 million to $4.2 million

Disney is hoping for a memorable holiday weekend as The Little Mermaid surfaces over the long frame. We have three other newcomers with Gerard Butler’s action thriller Kandahar, the father/son comedy About My Father with standup comic Sebastian Maniscalco and icon Robert De Niro, and the father/son comedy The Machine featuring standup comic Bert Kreischer and icon Mark Hamill. My detailed prediction posts on the quartet of newcomers can be accessed here:

The Little Mermaid Box Office Prediction
Kandahar Box Office Prediction
About My Father Box Office Prediction
The Machine Box Office Prediction

There’s no doubt that Mermaid will bubble up to the #1 spot. The mystery is the number. While I don’t think it reaches the heights of other Mouse Factory live-action remakes like Beauty and the Beast and The Lion King, I do think it exceed the 2019 Memorial Day take of Aladdin. That said – there’s a wide range of possibility and my estimate is admittedly on the higher end compared to some others.

The real battle might be for the runner-up position. Fast X came in below its predecessor F9 (more on that below). It also received the same so-so B+ Cinemascore grade. A drop to the mid or high 20s could put it slightly behind the fourth weekend of Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, which held impressively in the second and third outings. I’m going to give Star-Lord and company the slight edge over Vin Diesel and his cinematic family.

Butler has shown the ability to get his action flicks past $10 million and into the teens, but I’m not seeing much buzz for Kandahar. I’ll say it just reaches fourth place over The Super Mario Bros. Movie.

As you can tell from the descriptions, About My Father and The Machine have a lot in common. Both are tests for their leading men Maniscalco and Kreischer in their first headlining roles. Comedies have struggled at multiplexes lately and I believe these will. I think Father has a bit more broad appeal and I’ll give it sixth with The Machine trailing behind.

And with that, here’s how I envision the Friday to Monday Memorial weekend:

1. The Little Mermaid

Predicted Gross: $132.1 million

2. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3

Predicted Gross: $26 million

3. Fast X

Predicted Gross: $25.4 million

4. The Super Mario Bros. Movie

Predicted Gross: $7.6 million

5. About My Father

Predicted Gross: $6.2 million

6. Kandahar

Predicted Gross: $4.2 million

7. The Machine

Predicted Gross: $3.7 million

Box Office Results (May 19-21)

Fast X continued the diminishing returns of the franchise though its dip wasn’t too far off from F9. The tenth pic in the 22-year-old series made $67 million (F9 did $70M) and that’s right in line with my $67.8 million prediction. As mentioned, I look for a hefty fall coming up. Luckily for Universal, the overseas grosses are solid (they need to be considering the reported $340 million sticker price).

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 was second after two weeks on top with $32.4 million, on pace my with $33.5 million take. The three-week total is $266 million and, per above, I think it could stay parked in the runner-up position over the holiday.

The Super Mario Bros. Movie made $9.6 million for third compared to my $8.3 million forecast. The remarkable seven-week earnings are $549 million.

Book Club: The Next Chapter, after a poor debut, tumbled 55% in fourth with $3 million (I said $3.2 million). The rom com sequel has made a mere $13 million in ten days.

Finally, Evil Dead Rise was fifth with $2.4 million. My projection? $2.4 million! The horror pic has amassed $64 million in five weeks.

And that does it for now, folks! Catch my podcast… or Toddcast as I call it… by searching Movies at the Speed of Speculation on your favorite streaming platform. Until next time…

Kandahar Box Office Prediction

Blogger’s Note (05/24): I am revising my Kandahar prediction from $7.9 million to $4.2 million

Gerard Butler hopes to land a solid opening with Kandahar, his latest action thriller that reunites him with Angel Has Fallen director Ric Roman Waugh. Rolling out over the long Memorial Day weekend, costars include Navid Negahban, Ali Fazal, Bahador Foladi, Nina Toussaint-White, and Travis Fimmel.

Looking over the recent filmography, Butler’s efforts have posted divergent results. Den of Thieves made just north of $15 million five years ago. On the flip side, Hunter Killer from 2018 only did $6.6 million.

Plane from this January also premiered over a four-day MLK frame with $11.8 million overall on its way to $32 million domestically. Its simple concept may sell better than Kandahar. I’ll project the Friday to Monday take falls below double digits.

Kandahar opening weekend prediction: $4.2 million (Friday to Monday estimate)

For my The Little Mermaid prediction, click here:

The Little Mermaid Box Office Prediction

For my About My Father prediction, click here:

About My Father Box Office Prediction

For my The Machine prediction, click here:

The Machine Box Office Prediction

The Machine Box Office Prediction

Popular comedian and podcaster Bert Kreischer takes a true tale from his stand-up routine and converts it to film with The Machine. The raucous pic has the lead playing himself with Mark Hamill portraying his dad as they are kidnapped by the Russian Mob. Jessica Gabor, Iva Babić, Jimmy Tatro, and Stephanie Kurtzuba costar. Peter Atencio (in his follow-up to Keanu) directs.

While Kreischer certainly has a following, I’m not convinced a significant number of his fans will make the multiplex trek. Plenty may just wait until it’s available to stream (several comedies in general have struggled in theaters recently). Then there’s About My Father with Sebastian Maniscalco and Robert De Niro which debuts against it and could siphon away those looking for a laugh.

Over the four-day Memorial weekend, I’m not sure it gets to $5 million and I’ll project it won’t.

The Machine opening weekend prediction: $3.7 million (Friday to Monday estimate)

For my The Little Mermaid prediction, click here:

The Little Mermaid Box Office Prediction

For my About My Father prediction, click here:

About My Father Box Office Prediction

For my Kandahar prediction, click here:

Kandahar Box Office Prediction

About My Father Box Office Prediction

Stand-up Sebastian Maniscalco hopes audiences take a seat for the autobiographical About My Father, a cultural comedy that he stars in and cowrote. Laura Terruso directs with Robert De Niro playing the lead’s father who meets the parents of his son’s would-be fiancee. Costars include Leslie Bibb, Anders Holm, David Rasche, and Kim Cattrall.

Releasing over the long Memorial Day weekend, Father faces competition from another laugher headlined by a popular comedian. That would be The Machine with Bert Kreischer and it’ll interesting to track which comes out on top. Many comedies in recent years have faced tough odds at multiplexes. Both could suffer.

Maniscalco’s filmography is limited and consists of no high profile starring roles until now (he did play a supporting part alongside De Niro in The Irishman). I suspect this could fail to reach double digits over the four-day. A worst case scenario would be around $5 million. I’ll give it a little more credit.

About My Father opening weekend prediction: $6.2 million (Friday to Monday estimate)

For my The Little Mermaid prediction, click here:

The Little Mermaid Box Office Prediction

For my The Machine prediction, click here:

The Machine Box Office Prediction

For my Kandahar prediction, click here:

Kandahar Box Office Prediction

The Little Mermaid Box Office Prediction

Back in 1989, Disney’s animated underwater musical fantasy The Little Mermaid helped usher in a new golden era for the studio. Over the past few years, the Mouse Factory has made a habit out of releasing live-action renderings of those classics. This includes the pics that immediately followed Mermaid in Beauty and the Beast, Aladdin, and The Lion King.

It’s Ariel’s turn this Memorial Day weekend with Halle Bailey in the title role. Melissa McCarthy is Ursula and other supporting players include Jonah Hauer-King, Daveed Diggs, Awkwafina, Jacob Tremblay, Noma Dumezweni, and Javier Bardem. Rob Marshall, Oscar winning maker of Chicago as well as Mary Poppins Returns, directs.

Disney has mostly seen boffo results with this subgenre. This include four premieres over nine figures: 2016’s The Jungle Book ($103M), 2017’s Beauty and the Beast ($174M) and Aladdin ($116M) and The Lion King ($191M) from 2019. For Aladdin, that number represents the four-day Memorial weekend haul. Mermaid looks to swim in a similar financial pool as that effort. Anything below $100M would be a letdown.

I figure Mermaid will easily accomplish that goal. The original is beloved enough that the grown-ups who saw it 30 plus years ago should eagerly take their young ones. I’ll say the extended Friday to Monday gross may get beyond $130M.

The Little Mermaid opening weekend prediction: $132.1 million (Friday to Monday estimate)

For my About My Father prediction, click here:

About My Father Box Office Prediction

For my The Machine prediction, click here:

The Machine Box Office Prediction

For my Kandahar prediction, click here:

Kandahar Box Office Prediction

May 19-21 Box Office Predictions

Vin Diesel and a sprawling cast of costars and cars are back in Fast X as the franchise hopes to reverse a downward trend. It is the only wide release this weekend and you can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:

Fast X Box Office Prediction

X hopes to mark a gross higher than the $70 million achieved my predecessor F9 two years ago. I’m projecting it won’t do so and stall slightly under in the mid to high 60s.

The rest of the top five should be holdovers all sliding a spot. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 may drop in the mid 4os after an encouraging bounce back outing in its sophomore frame (more on that below).

The Super Mario Bros. Movie, Book Club: The Next Chapter (after a soft premiere), and Evil Dead Rise will likely be 3-5 for a top five consisting of 80% sequels.

Here’s how I see it:

1. Fast X

Predicted Gross: $67.8 million

2. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3

Predicted Gross: $33.5 million

3. The Super Mario Bros. Movie

Predicted Gross: $8.3 million

4. Book Club: The Next Chapter

Predicted Gross: $3.2 million

5. Evil Dead Rise

Predicted Gross: $2.4 million

Box Office Results (May 12-14)

The news wasn’t so hot last weekend for the MCU when Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 started with nearly $30 million under what Vol. 2 achieved six summers ago. The narrative improved this weekend as part 3 dipped a scant 48% for $62 million (ahead of my $54.8 million take). That figure puts it just $3 million behind what part 2 made in its second go-round. The ten-day gross is $214 million and it’s up to half a billion worldwide.

The Super Mario Bros. Movie stayed in second with $12.6 million, a tad more than my $11.7 million forecast. The six-week haul is $535 million.

Book Club: The Next Chapter couldn’t get a read on its intended audience as it sputtered with $6.6 million in third. That’s roughly half of what its 2018 predecessor accomplished in its opening and trails my $10.8 million prediction.

Evil Dead Rise was fourth with $3.7 million (I said $3.2 million) for a commendable four-week total of $60 million.

Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret rounded out the top five with $2.5 million, on target with my $2.4 million call. While it had only a 22% decline over Mother’s Day weekend, the overall earnings are a mere $16 million after three weeks.

Finally, the Ben Affleck thriller Hypnotic was dumped into multiplexes and it showed. The sixth place showing was just $2.4 million. I didn’t even bother to do a projection for the doomed pic.

You can listen to my podcast wherever you like ’em by searching Movies at the Speed of Speculation. That does it for now, folks! Until next time…