Category: Box Office Predictions/Results

May 29-31 Box Office Predictions

Horror flick Backrooms looks to open at the front of the charts while Nate Bargatze’s comedy The Breadwinner and World War II drama Pressure with Andrew Scott and Brendan Fraser seek impressive earnings. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the trio of newcomers here:

Backrooms Box Office Prediction
The Breadwinner Box Office Prediction
Pressure Box Office Prediction

Based on a popular YouTube web series, Backrooms from Kane Parsons has a wide range of possibility. A worst case scenario could put it in second place behind the second frame of The Mandalorian and Grogu. There’s also the potential for an overperformance topping approaching $60 million. My mid 50s projection puts it in first with ease.

That’s because The Mandalorian got off to a so-so start (more on that below) and I suspect it’s headed for a precipitous fall in the high 60s.

Obsession, after a remarkable sophomore weekend hold, may only slide slightly for a third place showing. That could leave The Breadwinner well behind in fourth in the low teens though Bargatze’s fanbase may turn out enough for a better than anticipated premiere. Comedies are tricky. It might also struggle to make $10 million.

As for Pressure, with a reported theater count of around 1800, my $4.9 million forecast would put it outside of the top five.

Here’s how I have that high five shaking out:

1. Backrooms

Predicted Gross: $54 million

2. The Mandalorian and Grogu

Predicted Gross: $25.9 million

3. Obsession

Predicted Gross: $21.4 million

4. Michael

Predicted Gross: $13 million

5. The Breadwinner

Predicted Gross: $12.1 million

Box Office Results (May 22-25)

The Mandalorian and Grogu never appeared to have the excitement that greets Star Wars series entries and the numbers proved that over Memorial Day weekend. The continuation of the Disney+ show landed with the lowest opening of any franchise pic since the Mouse House took over distribution beginning in 2015 with Star Wars: The Force Awakens. Opening slightly under 2018’s Solo: A Star Wars Story, the Friday to Sunday three-day take was $81.6 million, just over my $80.3 million prediction. When counting Monday, it grew to $98 million and that managed to top my $94.7 million take. While those grosses would be pleasing for most summer titles, that’s simply not the case here.

Obsession was arguably a bigger story this weekend as it grew 39% over its first frame. This is pretty much unheard of for any picture and especially in the horror genre. The Friday to Sunday earnings of $23.9 million and $31.9 million over the four-day easily surpassed my respective projections of $17.5 million and $22.9 million and the two-week total rose to $62 million.

Michael went from to 1st to 3rd with $20.6 million (three-day) and $27.1 million (four-day), ahead of my $18.8 million and $23.9 million guesstimates. The music biopic has now amassed $321 million in five weeks.

The Devil Wears Prada 2 was fourth with $12.7 million over the traditional weekend and $16.2 million with Monday added. The comedy sequel took in more than my $9.7 million and $12.6 million estimates and it has $199 million in the bank after four weeks,.

The Sheep Detectives held impressively in fifth with $9.2 million from Friday to Sunday (I said $7 million) and $12.3 million counting Monday (I went with $8.9 million). The three-week gross is $46 million for the summer sleeper.

Scary movie Passenger managed to outdo my predictions with $8.7 million (Fri-Sun) and $10.3 million (Fri-Mon). While I went lower respectively with $6.3 million and $7.3 million, the 6th place newcomer was overshadowed by Obsession. Unlike that movie, a hefty sophomore drop is probably coming.

Mortal Kombat II was seventh with $6 million over the three-day. My guess? $6 million! Its $7.6 million four-day slightly edged my $7.2 million call and the three-week total is $74 million.

Finally, absurdist comedy I Love Boosters from Boots Riley kicked off in 8th with $3.7 million from Friday to Sunday. My guess? $3.7 million! Like Kombat, the $4.7 million four-day barely exceeded my $4.5 million prediction.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Pressure Box Office Prediction

StudioCanal’s Pressure hopes to serve as counterprogramming for adult filmgoers when it lands in theaters May 29th. Focused on the lead-up to D-Day, the World War II drama stars Andrew Scott as Captain James Stagg and Brendan Fraser as then General Dwight D. Eisenhower. The supporting cast includes Kerry Condon, Chris Messina, and Damian Lewis.

I’m a little surprised the distributor didn’t opt to open this over the Memorial Day weekend. Perhaps they thought competition was too much. It is reported that the screen count is approximately 1800 next weekend and that’s low for a summer release.

Last year’s Nuremberg debuted on around 1800 and made just shy of $4 million out of the gate. That might be Pressure‘s initial frame is pointed and I’ll give it a bit over.

Pressure opening weekend prediction: $4.9 million

For my Backrooms prediction, click here:

Backrooms Box Office Prediction

For my The Breadwinner prediction, click here:

The Breadwinner Box Office Prediction

The Breadwinner Box Office Prediction

Nate Bargatze is one of the best selling stand-ups in the country and Sony hopes his popularity translates to the big screen when The Breadwinner opens May 29th. With a Mr. Mom-ish premise, the comedian stars and cowrites with Mandy Moore, Colin Jost, Zach Cherry, Kumail Nanjiani, and Will Forte in the supporting cast. Eric Appel directs.

This genre is a tough sell at multiplexes over the last few years as many titles go the streaming route. The Breadwinner has the potential to break out thanks to Bargatze’s following. Anything in the higher teens should be considered a massice success and teens is respectable. I have it falling just under that.

The Breadwinner opening weekend prediction: $12.1 million

For my Backrooms prediction, click here:

Backrooms Box Office Prediction

For my Pressure prediction, click here:

Pressure Box Office Prediction

Backrooms Box Office Prediction

A24 looks to achieve its largest opening weekend yet when Backrooms arrives on May 29th. Based on his own highly popular web series, Kane Parsons directs the sci-fi horror flick. Chiwetel Ejiofor leads a cast that includes Renate Reinsve, Mark Duplass, Finn Bennett, and Lukita Maxwell.

With James Wan, Shawn Levy, and Osgood Perkins among the producers, this looks to capitalize on its YouTube source material which boasts nearly 80 millions views. In order to set a record premiere for its distributor, Backrooms would need to top the $27 million that last December’s Marty Supreme started with.

Even though its earnings might be front-loaded, my hunch is that this has a better shot at exceeding expectations than going under them. I think low to mid 50s is doable and that would give it the #1 spot over the second frame of The Mandalorian and Grogu.

Backrooms opening weekend prediction: $54 million

For my The Breadwinner prediction, click here:

The Breadwinner Box Office Prediction

For my Pressure prediction, click here:

Pressure Box Office Prediction

May 22-25 Box Office Predictions

The Mandalorian and Grogu marks the first Star Wars theatrical entry in six years and it should easily rule the Memorial Day weekend charts. We also have horror flick Passenger and Boots Riley’s absurdist comedy I Love Boosters premiering. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the trio here:

The Mandalorian and Grogu Box Office Prediction
Passenger Box Office Prediction
I Love Boosters Box Office Prediction

While Mandolarian will certainly have no trouble placing first, the opening could be rather weak by Star Wars standards. I am forecasting that the continuation of the Disney Plus series will fall under $100 million for the four-day and that would be considered an unimpressive start.

Passenger could fall victim to the buzz surrounding fellow scary movie Obsession in its sophomore outing (more on its debut below). I have it outside of the top five.

Same goes for Boosters which could be looking at eighth place in the lower to mid single digits. I’m not convinced that mostly solid reviews will cause it to exceed expectations.

As for holdovers, there could be a close race for second. Current champ Michael might be the safe bet. However, Obsession may not see much of a drop at all in weekend #2 thanks to word-of-mouth and an A- Cinemascore (very high for its genre). In fact, I have it slightly increasing.

The Devil Wears Prada 2, The Sheep Detectives, and Mortal Kombat II should be 4-6 and here’s how I see the 3-day and 4-day grosses shaking out:

1. The Mandalorian and Grogu

Predicted Gross: $80.3 million (Fri-Sun); $94.7 million (Fri-Mon)

2. Michael

Predicted Gross: $18.8 million (Fri-Sun); $23.9 million (Fri-Mon)

3. Obsession

Predicted Gross: $17.5 million (Fri-Sun); $22.9 million (Fri-Mon)

4. The Devil Wears Prada 2

Predicted Gross: $9.7 million (Fri-Sun); $12.6 million (Fri-Mon)

5. The Sheep Detectives

Predicted Gross: $7 million (Fri-Sun); $8.9 million (Fri-Mon)

6. Passenger

Predicted Gross: $6.3 million (Fri-Sun); $7.3 million (Fri-Mon)

7. Mortal Kombat II

Predicted Gross: $6 million (Fri-Sun); $7.2 million (Fri-Mon)

8. I Love Boosters

Predicted Gross: $3.7 million (Fri-Sun); $4.5 million (Fri-Mon)

Box Office Results (May 15-17)

Michael made a return to the top spot in its fourth week with $26.1 million, right on target with my $25.8 million call. The King of Pop biopic has (moon)walked away with $282 million in domestic dollars thus far.

The Devil Wears Prada 2, after two weeks in first, fell to second with $17.8 million. That 57% decline is steeper than my $23 million estimate though it’s grown to $175 million total.

Obsession is the story of the weekend. Budgeted at a reported $1 million and purchased by Focus Features for approximately $15 million, it slayed in third with $17.1 million. That’s well beyond my meager $9.6 million projection as it looks to play well throughout the season.

In fourth, Mortal Kombat II plummeted 65% in weekend #2 to $13.4 million. My prediction? $13.4 million! The martial arts sequel stands at $62 million.

The Sheep Detectives was fifth with $9.5 million (I said $10.2 million) for a decent two-week tally of $29 million.

Finally, Guy Ritchie’s In the Grey starring Henry Cavill and Jake Gyllenhaal was a dud in ninth with $2.9 million. I was generous at $5.9 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

I Love Boosters Box Office Prediction

Absurdist crime comedy I Love Boosters hopes to make off with respectable box office grosses on May 22nd. This is Boots Riley’s follow-up to 2018’s acclaimed Sorry to Bother You. The eclectic cast includes Keke Palmer, Naomi Ackie, Taylour Paige, Poppy Liu, Eiza González, LaKeith Stanfield, Will Poulter, Don Cheadle, and Demi Moore.

The Neon release was first screened at South by Southwest in March to fresh reviews (95% Rotten Tomatoes, 73 Metacritic). Debuting over the Memorial Day weekend, the real question is whether this manages to play between the coasts. That could be a challenge.

Budgeted for a reported $20 million, it would exceed expectations if it gets past $5 million over the Friday to Sunday portion of the holiday frame. I’m projecting that it will not.

I Love Boosters opening weekend prediction: $3.7 million (Friday to Sunday); $4.5 million (Friday to Monday)

For my The Mandalorian and Grogu prediction, click here:

The Mandalorian and Grogu Box Office Prediction

For my Passenger prediction, click here:

Passenger Box Office Prediction

Passenger Box Office Prediction

Paramount hopes audiences are in the mood for a scary story to watch in the dark when Passenger arrives in multiplexes on May 22nd. André Øvredal, who directed Scary Stories to Tell in the Dark, is behind the camera with Jacob Scipio, Lou Llobell, and Melissa Leo in the cast.

The fright fest boasts an effective trailer and genre fans could turn out over the Memorial Day weekend. However, horror fans have had some options lately and Obsession could still be performing well in its sophomore frame based on word-of-mouth.

A gross above $10 million over the four-day is certainly feasible for its ceiling, but I’m going under.

Passenger opening weekend prediction: $6.3 million (Friday to Sunday); $7.3 million (Friday to Monday)

For my The Mandalorian and Grogu prediction, click here:

The Mandalorian and Grogu Box Office Prediction

For my I Love Boosters prediction, click here:

I Love Boosters Box Office Prediction

The Mandalorian and Grogu Box Office Prediction

Following a nearly six and a half year break between big screen releases, the Star Wars franchise blasts back into theaters over the Memorial Day holiday with The Mandalorian and Grogu. Building upon the Disney+ series The Mandalorian that aired from 2019 to 2023, Pedro Pascal returns in the title role with Jeremy Allen White voicing Rotta the Hutt and Sigourney Weaver in the human cast. Jon Favreau, who created the TV series, directs.

After Disney prioritized streaming content in the 2020s, this looks to kickstart multiplex studio efforts with Star Wars: Starfighter slated to open next Memorial Day weekend. Grogu is a real test for Star Wars fan loyalty. It can be argued that this would have fared better when the Disney+ show was fresher in the minds of viewers. The last two theatrical efforts -2018’s Solo: A Star Wars Story and 2019’s Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, were considered letdowns critically and commercially.

The best comp is Solo which debuted over the same holiday frame with $84 million from Friday to Sunday and $103 million when factoring Monday. Disney is surely hoping for nine figure bragging rights. I’m putting it under that for what would be considered a so-so start.

The Mandalorian and Grogu opening weekend prediction: $80.3 million (Friday to Sunday); $94.7 million (Friday to Monday)

For my Passenger prediction, click here:

Passenger Box Office Prediction

For my I Love Boosters prediction, click here:

I Love Boosters Box Office Prediction

May 15-17 Box Office Predictions

Critically hailed horror flick Obsession and Guy Ritchie’s action thriller In the Grey hope for breakout performances as holdovers look to rule the charts. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:

Obsession Box Office Prediction
In the Grey Box Office Prediction

Obsession is a genuine question mark with solid reviews on its side and a chance to exceed expectations. I’m playing it safe and putting it just under double digits and that likely would mean a fifth place showing. However, a best case scenario could be a debut in third.

I don’t see In the Grey outdoing estimates and my mid single digits projection leaves Henry Cavill and Jake Gyllenhaal’s latest in sixth.

Mother’s Day weekend saw The Devil Wears Prada 2 hold up better than I assumed (more on that below). This weekend, I think Michael has a terrific shot at jumping from third to first. The musical biopic may only ease in the low 30s while Prada should decline over 40%.

Mortal Kombat II‘s plummet should be more severe in the mid 60s while The Sheep Detectives could experience a meager dip with family audiences catching up in its sophomore frame.

Here’s how I see the top 6 shaking out:

1. Michael

Predicted Gross: $25.8 million

2. The Devil Wears Prada 2

Predicted Gross: $23 million

3. Mortal Kombat II

Predicted Gross: $13.4 million

4. The Sheep Detectives

Predicted Gross: $10.2 million

5. Obsession

Predicted Gross: $9.6 million

6. In the Grey

Predicted Gross: $5.9 million

Box Office Results (May 8-10)

The Devil Wears Prada 2 took advantage of the Mother’s Day frame with a second weekend in 1st at $41.6 million. The sequel bested my $36 million prediction for a commendable two-week total of $143 million. It has already (not adjusted for inflation) topped the 2006 original’s $124 million domestic haul.

Mortal Kombat II kicked off at the lower end of prognoses with $38.5 million in the runner-up spot, not matching my kinder $43.1 million call. While the martial arts action sequel’s performance surpassed the $23 million that its 2021 predecessor debuted with, COVID complications and a simultaneous HBO Max release make that comparison tricky.

Michael was third in weekend #3 with $37.9 million, on target with my $37.6 million take. The record-setter for its genre grew to $241 million stateside.

The Sheep Detectives was fourth with $15 million, in line with my $14.6 million forecast. While parents and kiddos didn’t exactly (apologies) flock to it, the road ahead looks bright with encouraging word-of-mouth.

James Cameron’s concert doc Billie Eilish – Hit Me Hard and Soft: The Tour (Live in 3D) rounded out the top five at $7 million, not quite reaching my $8.3 million projection.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

In the Grey Box Office Prediction

The prolific Guy Ritchie’s latest action thriller is In the Grey. The Black Bear distributed production looks to make its mark at multiplexes on May 15th. Henry Cavill and Eiza González (who costarred in the filmmaker’s 2024 effort The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare) headline here along with Guy Ritchie’s The Covenant lead Jake Gyllenhaal. The supporting cast also includes Kristopher Hivji, Fisher Stevens, and Rosamund Pike.

Those aforementioned earlier Ritchie pics (his last two titles to hit theaters) could be decent comps. Warfare slightly exceeded expectations with a $9 million start in 2024. In 2023, The Covenant performed in line with its anticipated range at just over $6 million. I don’t see anything from Grey‘s advertising that indicates it’ll break out. This could’ve easily been a streaming debut like Ritchie’s Apple TV adventure Fountain of Youth from last year.

I’ll project this fall slightly under what The Covenant achieved.

In the Grey opening weekend prediction: $5.9 million

For my Obsession prediction, click here:

Obsession Box Office Prediction