Jason Statham reunites with his Plane director Jean-François Richet for action thriller Mutiny on August 21st. Costarring Annabelle Wallis, Jason Wong, Roland Møller, Arnas Fedaravicius, and Adrian Lester, Lionsgate hopes for a midsize hit like other Statham efforts.
Originally slated for January, it follows the lead’s Shelter which did come out in January. While 2024’s The Beekeeper collected $16.6 million out of the gate ($66 million total domestic) and 2025’s A Working Man did $15.5 million and $37 million overall, Shelter faltered. It debuted to only $5.5 million and then $12 million all in.
I think Mutiny manages to get beyond Shelter, but not double digits like the aforementioned flicks.
Mutiny opening weekend prediction: $7.9 million
For my Insidious: Out of the Further prediction, click here:
Marking the sixth entry in a sturdy horror franchise, Insidious: Out of the Further is inside theaters on August 21st. Written and directed by Jacob Chase (new to the series), franchise stalwarts James Wan and Leigh Whannell serve as producers. Amelia Eve, Brandon Perea, Maisie Richardson-Sellers, and Lin Shaye (another constant) headline the cast.
In the spring of 2011, Insidious kicked off with $13 million and legged out to a commendable $54 million. The 2013 follow-up set highs in terms of opening weekend ($40 million) and overall domestic haul ($83 million). Yet 2023’s predecessor Insidious: The Red Door isn’t far behind with a $33 million premiere and $82 million eventual gross.
While I don’t see Further setting any records, I do think mid to possibly high 20s is certainly achievable as many genre fans should seek it out.
Insidious: Out of the Further opening weekend prediction: $26.7 million
While Spider-Man: Brand New Day should face no trouble spinning a third weekend atop the charts, two dinosaur centered features will attempt to make their mark at multiplexes. We have 1980s set The End of Oak Street with Anne Hathaway and Ewan McGregor and animated three-quel PAW Patrol: The Dino Movie debuting. They premiere alongside The Brink of War from Angel Studios (recounting the Reagan/Gorbachev 1986 Icelandic summit) and you can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:
Buzz appears to picking up for Oak Street, the sci-fi adventure from acclaimed filmmaker David Robert Mitchell. While I wouldn’t discount an opening approaching $40 million in a best case scenario, the floor could be in the low 20s. My low 30s projection gives it a second place showing.
The third pic based on the Canadian kids TV series, I foresee PAW Patrol coming in a bit behind 2023 predecessor PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie. It could be in third place, but I’ve got it in fourth slightly behind the fifth outing for The Odyssey.
The Brink of War should land the five spot. The political drama may get beyond my mid single digits estimate, but I’ll play it safe.
As mentioned, Spidey is poised to make it three in a row. A percentage decline in the high 50s would mean a gross just north of $60 million and here’s how I have it all shaking out:
1. Spider-Man: Brand New Day
Predicted Gross: $60.2 million
2. The End of Oak Street
Predicted Gross $31.1 million
3. The Odyssey
Predicted Gross: $21 million
4. PAW Patrol: The Dino Movie
Predicted Gross: $18.7 million
5. The Brink of War
Predicted Gross: $4.5 million
Box Office Results (August 7-9)
Two new comedies struggled while Peter Parker and Odysseus continued to rule. Spider-Man: Brand New Day, after scoring the greatest domestic opening haul in box office history, had the third strongest sophomore weekend ever behind Star Wars: The Force Awakens ($149 million) and Avengers: Endgame ($147 million). The MCU saga took in $144.2 million. While that’s below my generous $153 million take, the ten-day total is a whopping $654 million.
The Odyssey held runner-up status once again with $31.7 million, on target with my $31.6 million call. The future awards player sits at $461 million after four weeks.
Rom com One Night Only starring Monica Barbaro and Callum Turner was third at the low end of expectations with $5.5 million. I thought it would nab $7.8 million.
Toy Story 5 was fourth with $4.2 million (I said $4.9 million) as the Pixar sequel brought its eight-week earnings to $470 million.
Finally, Super Troopers 3 fell way behind its 2018 predecessor in fifth. While part 2 made off with $15 million out of the gate, part 3 was good for only $4 million. I went with $7.6 million.
Angel Studios hopes to attract an older crowd with The Brink of War on August 14th. Recounting the Reykjavik Summit of 1986, the political drama casts Jeff Daniels as Ronald Reagan with Jared Harris portraying Mikhail Gorbachev. Michael Russell Gunn makes his directorial debut with the supporting cast including J.K. Simmons as Secretary of State George Schultz and Hope Davis as Nancy Reagan. **Fun fact: this is Davis’s second portrayal of a First Lady as she inhabited Hillary Clinton in 2010’s HBO pic The Special Relationship.
War‘s recounting of a major event in the tenure of America’s 40th President is unlikely to approach Angel’s summer flick about the formative days of the 1st POTUS. Young Washington premiered to nearly $20 million with a shrewd Fourth of July holiday release. This might be lucky to take in a quarter of those debut earnings.
The Brink of War opening weekend prediction: $4.5 million
For my The End of Oak Street prediction, click here
If youngsters aren’t quite ready for the prehistoric creatures inhabiting The End of Oak Street starting August 14th, parents have a more kid friendly option via PAW Patrol: The Dino Movie. The third feature stemming from the Canadian animated series, Cal Brunker returns as director. Among the voice artists are Carter Young, Mckenna Grace, Terry Crews, Jennifer Hudson, Jameela Jamil, Paris Hilton, and Snoop Dogg.
Five years ago, PAW Patrol: The Movie opened while COVID closures were still a reality. It made just over $13 million in its debut with $40 million eventually in its domestic coffers. Two years later, PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie fared better with a near $23 million start and $65 million overall. This tale of 65 million year old characters should get closer to Mighty than the original. I’ll say it falls just under $20 million.
PAW Patrol: The Dino Movie opening weekend prediction: $18.7 million
For my The End of Oak Street prediction, click here:
Warner Bros looks for audiences to travel to The End of Oak Street beginning August 14th. The sci-fi thriller stars Anne Hathaway, Ewan McGregor, Maisy Stella, Christian Convery, and some prehistoric creatures menacing a 1980s suburban neighborhood. David Robert Mitchell, best known for 2014’s acclaimed horror pic It Follows, directs.
Originally slated for May of last year and then spring 2026, the studio is banking on moviegoers making it a late summer blockbuster. Hathaway is suddenly everywhere this year. This is her fourth release since April with another flick coming this fall. Perhaps her exposure from seasonal hits The Devil Wears Prada 2 and The Odyssey will help.
Buzz seems somewhat muted but awareness appears to be picking up. In a best case scenario, the tale of menacing dinos might score $40 million. The floor could be $20 million. I’ll say it gets toward the middle of that range in the low 30s.
The End of Oak Street opening weekend prediction: $31.1 million
For my PAW Patrol: The Dino Movie prediction, click here:
A history making weekend just occurred at the box office with Spider-Man: Brand New Day and The Odyssey breaking records. The blockbuster duo should easily rule the charts once again but we do have newcomers jockeying for third place. The Broken Lizard comedy gang returns in Super Troopers 3 while Monica Barbaro and Callum Turner headline the rom com One Night Only. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on them here:
We’ll get to the newbies in a minute, but let’s talk Spidey. Brand New Day, the 38th overall MCU pic and 4th franchise effort with Tom Holland in the title role, swung the best opening weekend ever domestically (more on that below). Edging out seven-year record holder Avengers: Endgame by $3 million, Day could be in contention for the highest second frame of all time. In order to do so, it would need to top the $149 million that Star Wars: The Force Awakens earned in 2015 (Endgame did $147 million in its sophomore outing). I’m projecting it’ll get there with a gross just north of $150 million.
Christopher Nolan’s epic The Odyssey should continue its fantastic run with a second place finish in the $30-35 million range.
Third place is more of a question mark and I’m predicting a photo finish between One Night and Troopers. I don’t see either of them greatly exceeding expectations. My $7-8 million take on both gives Night minor bragging rights in third.
Toy Story 5 should place fifth and here’s how I have it shaking out:
1. Spider-Man: Brand New Day
Predicted Gross: $153 million
2. The Odyssey
Predicted Gross: $31.6 million
3. One Night Only
Predicted Gross: $7.8 million
4. Super Troopers 3
Predicted Gross: $7.6 million
5. Toy Story 5
Predicted Gross: $4.9 million
Box Office Results (July 31-August 2)
Spider-Man: Brand New Day astonished prognosticators and pummeled my prediction by nearly $100 million (!) as the MCU sequel swung $360 million. That’s way beyond my $268 million take and ahead of Endgame‘s $357 million record. Audience anticipation was clearly sky high after 2021 predecessor No Way Home as this looks to dominate August at multiplexes.
The Odyssey landed another $51 million in its third weekend to bring its gargantuan total to $395 million. That added coin, coupled with Spider-Man, contributed to the best box office weekend in history (unadjusted for inflation). My projection was slightly lower at $48.5 million.
Toy Story 5 was third in its seventh go-round with $6.7 million, a tad more than my $6.1 million call. The Pixar sequel has hauled in $462 million thus far.
Minions & Monsters was fourth with $6 million compared to my $5.6 million forecast for a five-week tally of $168 million.
Disney’s Moana rounded out the top five with $5.6 million (I said $5.7 million) for $115 million after four weeks.
Will Gluck, a veteran of the rom com genre with Easy A and Anyone but You to his credit, directs One Night Only which hits multiplexes on August 7th. The high concept love story stars Monica Barbaro (best known for her Oscar nominated work in A Complete Unknown) and Callum Turner. The eclectic supporting cast includes Maya Hawke, Julia Fox, King Princess, Ben Marshall, Ziwe, Molly Ringwald, and LeVar Burton.
The Universal production seems to be flying under the radar though female audiences could turn out in unexpected numbers. Under no circumstances will this approach the earnings of sleeper hit Anyone but You ($88 million domestic). Night could manage a gross of $10 million plus and hope that word-of-mouth keeps it performing decently throughout August. In the worst case scenario, it could flop like Turner’s Eternity did last November. I’ll say mid to high single digits is where it starts.
One Night Only opening weekend prediction: $7.8 million
Nearly 25 years ago, Super Troopers from the Broken Lizard comedy troupe became a cult classic comedy. A 2018 sequel performed stronger out of the gate than anticipated and Super Trooper 3 rolls into multiplexes on August 6th. Jay Chandrasekhar returns to direct and star alongside Kevin Heffernan, Paul Soter, Steve Lemme, Erik Stolhanske, Brian Cox, Marisa Coughlan, Nat Faxon, Chace Crawford, Andrew Dismukes, and Hannah Simone.
Just over eight years ago, the first follow-up was estimated to take in under $10 million during its first outing. It managed $15.2 million before losing 75% of its audience during the sophomore frame. Part 2 ended up with $30 million domestically.
While ardent fans of Troopers should turn up, I suspect this one will earn under $10 million though this comedy team has beaten projections before.
Super Troopers 3 opening weekend prediction: $7.6 million
Blogger’s Note (07/29): Spidey prediction was raised from $251 million to $268 million. That’s means I’m projecting it gets the #2 all-time domestic debut.
After a year away from multiplexes, the Marvel Cinematic Universe swings back into theaters with Spider-Man: Brand New Day. The fourth entry in Tom Holland’s web slinger franchise seeks and is highly likely to achieve 2026’s largest domestic debut. My detailed prediction post for it can be accessed here:
The year’s biggest stateside premiere belongs to Toy Story 5 at $159 million and Spidey should have no trouble toppling that record. A better question is where it’ll rank all-time in the U.S. and Canada. Projections are rising among some prognosticators. While the $357 million hauled in by Avengers: Endgame appears safe, some believe #2 could be in danger. That’s held by Brand predecessor Spider-Man: No Way Home at $260 million. My number puts it in fourth (and fourth MCU overall) just behind Avengers: Infinity War ($257 million) and ahead of Star Wars: The Force Awakens ($247 million).
After two impressive stints in first, Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey will fall to second. While its sophomore weekend hold was dynamite (more on that below), I’ll project a mid-40s decline this time around due to Mr. Holland’s other adventure.
The rest of top six should be a close race between family fare Toy Story 5, Moana, and Minions & Monsters. Here’s how I have it shaking out:
1. Spider-Man: Brand New Day
Predicted Gross: $268 million
2. The Odyssey
Predicted Gross: $48.5 million
3. Toy Story 5
Predicted Gross: $6.1 million
4. Moana
Predicted Gross: $5.7 million
5. Minions & Monsters
Predicted Gross: $5.6 million
Box Office Results (July 24-26)
The Odyssey continued its fabulous box office journey with a scant 27% ease in weekend #2. Adding $90 million to its coffers, the eventual Oscar contender has amassed $289 million as it breezed past my $74.6 million prediction. After a massive start, word-of-mouth is clearly assisting Nolan’s latest.
Moana was second with $10.6 million, in range with my $10.2 million estimate. The live-action version of Disney’s 2016 animated feature passed nine digits with $102 million after three weeks. There’s no doubt the studio was hoping for more at this juncture.
Hadestown: The Musical, a stage recording of the Broadway smash, kicked off with $10.2 million in third and ahead of my $8.5 million call. Initially set for a five-day engagement in theaters, demand has changed the release plan.
Toy Story 5 was fourth with $10.1 million (I said $9.7 million) for a six-week tally of $448 million. Animated competition Minions & Monsters rounded out the top five with $9.7 million compared to my $9 million take. In four weeks, it has taken in $155 million.
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