Overboard Box Office Prediction

Eugenio Derbez and Anna Faris headline the remake Overboard, premiering next weekend. The comedy is based on a 1987 romantic comedy directed by Garry Marshall that starred Goldie Hawn and Kurt Russell. It was considered a moderate success (grossing $27 million at the time). A co-production of Lionsgate and Pantelion, the latter is the same studio that turned Derbez’s How to be a Latin Lover into an unexpected success around the same time last year. That pic opened to $12.2 million and made $32 million domestically.

Rob Greenberg directs with a supporting cast that includes Eva Longoria, John Hannah, and Swoosie Kurtz. The film was originally slated for an April 20th release before being pushed back two weeks (the shift of Avengers: Infinity War likely had something to do with that). Faris has been largely absent from the big screen as she’s concentrated mostly on her CBS sitcom “Mom”. Her last headlining role came with 2012’s What’s Your Number? (which was a disappointment) and we’re a decade from her last hit The House Bunny. 

Current theater counts put this at a rather low 1200 screens (it could certainly rise and I wouldn’t be surprised if it does). That’s roughly the number that Latin Lover had. I foresee Overboard posting a similar opening weekend, which should be good enough to come in second to the sophomore frame of the Marvel superheroes.

Overboard opening weekend prediction: $11.8 million

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A Marvel Cinematic Universe Box Office History

As we await the potentially historic debut of Avengers: Infinity War this weekend, we also mark a decade of the vaunted Marvel Cinematic Universe that began in 2008 with Iron Man. Ten years later, Infinity is the 19th feature in a franchise that has grossed nearly $6 billion stateside and almost $15 billion worldwide. With Friday’s release of Infinity, I’m estimating it will have the second highest domestic debut of all time (behind only Star Wars: The Force Awakens).

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/04/17/avengers-infinity-war-box-office-prediction/

My blog didn’t begin until the fall of 2012, shortly after the release of the first Avengers feature. That means I have done 12 opening weekend box office predictions for MCU releases prior to Infinity. I thought this might be a good time to take a trip down that lane on how I’ve done with their pictures of the past:

Iron Man 3 (2013)

My Prediction: $172.4 million

Opening: $174.1 million

I started off well with my prediction for Tony Stark’s third franchise entry, which had the benefit of coming right on the heels of The Avengers.

Thor: The Dark World (2013)

My Prediction: $85.6 million

Opening: $85.7 million

My high mark in MCU estimates came here – only $100k off!

Captain America: The Winter Soldier (2014)

My Prediction: $86.3 million

Opening: $95 million

I underestimated Cap a bit here, but not too shabby.

Guardians of the Galaxy (2014)

My Prediction: $74.6 million

Opening: $94.3 million

Yeah… the sizzling buzz for Guardians in summer 2014 caused anticipation to rise and rise. It’s hard to remember now, but this was actually considered a risk for Marvel at the time. The buzz exceeded my take by nearly $20 million bucks.

Avengers: Age of Ultron (2015)

My Prediction: $212.7 million

Opening: $191.2 million

The question with this first Avengers sequel is whether it would top the $207 million achieved by its 2012 predecessor. If so, it would have had the largest domestic opening at the time. I predicted it would and it fell short. Strangely enough, it would be Jurassic World one month later that would earn $208 million and set the debut record until The Force Awakens came along.

Ant-Man (2015)

My Prediction: $73.3 million

Opening: $57.2 million

I gave Paul Rudd and company too much credit here. The Ant-Man is the second lowest MCU debut (only The Incredible Hulk is below it at $55 million). Nevertheless a sequel is on its way this summer.

Captain America: Civil War (2016)

My Prediction: $205.6 million

Opening: $179.1 million

My streak of going over on these predictions continues for the third feature…

Doctor Strange (2016)

My Prediction: $77.3 million

Opening: $85 million

A little low, but at least I got to within $10 million here.

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (2017)

My Prediction: $166.4 million

Opening: $146.5 million

AND we’re back to going high…

Spider-Man: Homecoming (2017)

My Prediction: $117.8 million

Opening: $117 million

After some whiffs, finally got back to solid estimating with Spidey’s well-received reiteration.

Thor: Ragnarok (2017)

My Prediction: $107.6 million

Opening: $122.7 million

Positive WOM pushed Thor’s third feature $15 million better than my projection.

Black Panther (2018)

My Prediction: $193.8 million

Opening: $202 million

This was an estimate that kept going up and up. I got pretty close, but still didn’t have it reaching the $200M+ plus number it achieved.

And there you have it! My checkered MCU history. We shall see how that $242.2 million take for Infinity War pans out soon enough…

Avengers: Infinity War Box Office Prediction

It may feel like winter in many parts of the country even though it’s spring, but next weekend is essentially the start of the summer box office in 2018 when Avengers: Infinity War invades theaters. This is the 19th picture in the Marvel Cinematic Universe that began a decade ago with 2008’s Iron Man and the third installment of the Avengers franchise that kicked off in 2012 (an untitled fourth installment is out next summer).

After 10 years of these superheroes populating our screens in one form or another, Infinity War is the picture that brings them all together. That means we have the Avengers we’re used to seeing together: Iron Man (Robert Downey Jr.), Captain America (Chris Evans), Thor (Chris Hemsworth), Hulk (Mark Ruffalo), Black Widow (Scarlett Johansson), and Hawkeye (Jeremy Renner). They’ve got a whole lot of company this time around, including Black Panther (Chadwick Boseman), Spider-Man (Tom Holland), Doctor Strange (Benedict Cumberbatch), Ant-Man (Paul Rudd), War Machine (Don Cheadle), Scarlet Witch (Elizabeth Olsen), Falcon (Anthony Mackie), Loki (Tom Hiddleston), Bucky (Sebastian Stan), and the whole Guardians of the Galaxy gang (Chris Pratt, Zoe Saldana, Dave Bautista, and the vocal work of Bradley Cooper and Vin Diesel). Josh Brolin is main villain Thanos. Other actors from the MCU returning include Gwyneth Paltrow, Idris Elba, Paul Bettany, Letitia Wright, Danai Gurira, Benicio del Toro, Cobie Smulders, Angela Bassett, Tessa Thompson, and Jon Favreau. Brothers Anthony and Joe Russo (who directed 2016’s Captain America: Civil War) are behind the camera. Whew…

The gathering of the entire MCU is one impressive selling point and there’s been developments that have even increased the anticipation for Infinity‘s release. Last summer’s Spider-Man: Homecoming was well-received, as were Guardians and Thor sequels. Yet perhaps more than anything else, this February’s Black Panther turned into a phenomenon – becoming the third highest grossing domestic earner of all time.

Projections have steadily increased in the past few weeks. It is not outside the realm of possibility that Infinity War could have the largest stateside opening of all time. In order to do so, it would need to surpass the $247 million achieved by 2015’s Star Wars: The Force Awakens. To accomplish the 2nd biggest debut, it would need to exceed the $220 million of last year’s Star Wars: The Last Jedi. It will almost certainly achieve the record for an MCU premiere, which is currently held by the original Avengers at $207 million.

I believe this will pass Jedi and rather easily. Getting to the Awakens number is doable, but I’ll project it falls a bit under that milestone.

Avengers: Infinity War opening weekend prediction: $240.2 million

 

Box Office Predictions: April 20-22

It’s the calm before the Marvel storm at the box office this weekend as three new titles debut: Amy Schumer’s I Feel Pretty, comedy sequel Super Troopers 2, and Paula Patton/Omar Epps thriller Traffik. You can peruse my detailed predictions on that trio here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/04/10/i-feel-pretty-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/04/13/super-troopers-2-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/04/14/traffik-box-office-prediction/

As we await the potentially record-breaking premiere of Avengers: Infinity War next weekend (my estimate for it will be on the blog tomorrow), there is some excitement to ponder with this frame. There could be a three-way battle for first place as current #1 Rampage is likely to suffer a heftier drop than A Quiet Place. If Pretty beats my forecast, it could vie for the top slot as well.

My $5.2 million Super Troopers 2 prediction and $3 million projection for Traffik leave them both outside my top 5.

Truth or Dare should drop to fourth with Ready Player One and Blockers battling for fifth position. I’ll note I have Player right behind Blockers in sixth with $5.8 million.

So while Captain America, Iron Man, Black Panther, the Guardians of the Galaxy and more superheroes await, here’s my take on this weekend’s high five:

1. A Quiet Place

Predicted Gross: $21.6 million

2. Rampage

Predicted Gross: $17 million

3. I Feel Pretty

Predicted Gross: $16.2 million

4. Truth or Dare

Predicted Gross: $7.9 million

5. Blockers

Predicted Gross: $5.9 million

Box Office Results (April 1315)

Rampage took first as Dwayne Johnson’s adventure with a slew of CG creatures met expectations with $35.7 million, in line with my $36.6 million estimate. As you can see above, I expect it to lose more than half its opening audience and cede the pole position to the third frame of horror smash A Quiet Place.

Speaking of, A Quiet Place held strongly in second with $32.9 million. I was close on that projection too with $31.8 million. The acclaimed pic has amassed $100 million in just ten days.

Blumhouse continued its trend of turning low-budget fright fests into hits as Truth or Dare was third with $18.6 million, just topping my $16.7 million forecast. While I look for it to drop fast, it’s already a big success considering its budget is reportedly under $5 million.

Other holdovers experienced larger declines that my projections. Ready Player One was fourth with $11.5 million compared to my $13.9 million estimate for $114 million total. Blockers was fifth with $10.7 million (I said $13.3 million) for $37 million overall.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Traffik Box Office Prediction

Lionsgate hopes to fill audience lanes with the release of their thriller Traffik next weekend. The pic casts Paula Patton and Omar Epps as a couple on a romantic getaway who come into contact with a group of sex traffickers. Deon Taylor directs and costars include Laz Alonso, Roselyn Sanchez, and Missi Pyle.

Like the Amy Schumer comedy I Feel Pretty, this was originally scheduled to debut April 27 until Marvel moved Avengers: Infinity War to that day. Both Traffik and Pretty accelerated their releases up a week to avoid that behemoth.

The current screen count for this is listed at 1000, which is low. I’ll project there won’t be much congestion in theaters for Traffik.

Traffik opening weekend prediction: $3 million

For my I Feel Pretty prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/04/10/i-feel-pretty-box-office-prediction/

For my Super Troopers 2 prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/04/13/super-troopers-2-box-office-prediction/

Super Troopers 2 Box Office Prediction

Arriving over 16 years after its predecessor turned into a cult comedy hit, Super Troopers 2 hits theaters next weekend. Continuing to follow the exploits of a group of inept Vermont law enforcement officials, the sequel brings back the team from the Broken Lizard team. That includes Jay Chandrasekhar (who also directs), Kevin Heffernan, Steve Lemme, Paul Soter, and Erik Stolhanske. Other costars include Brian Cox, Damon Wayans Jr., Sean William Scott, Emmanuelle Chriqui, Jim Gaffigan, Rob Lowe, Paul Walter Hauser, Fred Savage, and original Wonder Woman Lynda Carter.

In February 2002, Super Troopers debuted to $6.2 million with an overall $18 million domestic gross. That doesn’t exactly warrant an immediate sequel, but the pic increased in popularity once released for home viewing. Even with its devoted following, part 2 may have trouble matching the premiere of part 1 from a decade and a half ago. 16 years is a long gap and younger moviegoers may not be familiar with the source material at all. Even some fans of the original may choose to wait until Troopers 2 is available on demand.

For meow, I’ll say this falls about a million bucks short of what the 2002 pic accomplished.

Super Troopers 2 opening weekend prediction: $5.2 million

For my I Feel Pretty prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/04/10/i-feel-pretty-box-office-prediction/

For my Traffik prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/04/14/traffik-box-office-prediction/

I Feel Pretty Box Office Prediction

Nearly three years ago, comedian Amy Schumer broke through on the big screen in a major way with Trainwreck. Last summer, she hit a bit of a sophomore slump with Snatched. Will the third time be a charm or a disappointment with next weekend’s I Feel Pretty?

Schumer stars as an ordinary gal who hits her head and wakes up thinking she’s attained supermodel looks. The pic comes from directors Abby Kohn and Mark Silverstein, making their directorial debut after writing features including Never Been Kissed, The Vow, and How to Be Single. Costars include Michelle Williams, Emily Ratajkowski, Rory Scovel, Aidy Bryant, Busy Philips, and real supermodels Naomi Campbell and Lauren Hutton.

As mentioned, Schumer’s Trainwreck debuted in the summer of 2015 to $30 million and an eventual $110 million domestic gross. Two years later, her collaboration with Goldie Hawn, Snatched, grabbed a lesser $19 million out of the gate and then petered out with just $45 million overall.

I Feel Pretty was originally scheduled to open in June of this year before being pushed up to April 27. It was recently moved up a week due to The Avengers staking claim on that release date. Reviews are not out yet and that could both help or hinder its prospects. For instance, Blockers managed to premiere to over $20 million just last weekend and the positive word-of-mouth helped. Snatched, on the other hand, probably wasn’t assisted by its mediocre reaction.

I’ll say Pretty doesn’t reach the $20 million mark and its prospects are more likely in the mid to high teens teens range.

I Feel Pretty opening weekend prediction: $16.2 million

For my Super Troopers 2 prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/04/13/super-troopers-2-box-office-prediction/

For my Traffik prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/04/14/traffik-box-office-prediction/

Box Office Predictions: April 13-15

Dwayne Johnson and Blumhouse Productions are hoping that Friday the 13th is a lucky opening day for them as Rampage and Truth or Dare debut this weekend. The former teams Johnson in an adventure with a host of CG animals and the latter is the latest from the studio that has seen a number of low-budget horror hits. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on both here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/04/03/rampage-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/04/03/truth-or-dare-box-office-prediction/

The battle for #1 got a bit more interesting this weekend due to the incredible debut of A Quiet Place. If Rampage were to not meet expectations (and I have it meeting them), it could create a close race between the two. That said, my mid 30s projection for The Rock and the giant gorillas and wolves puts it in first with Quiet not too far behind.

Underestimating Blumhouse is usually not a wise course of action and I have Truth or Dare in third (even with the considerable competition of A Quiet Place‘s sophomore frame). That means Ready Player One and Blockers (which opened very well itself over the weekend) should be awfully close in the race for fourth. I give Player the slight edge.

There’s also the nationwide expansion of Wes Anderson’s Isle of Dogs, which has been performing splendidly in limited release. I don’t have a theater count for it yet, but I don’t see it reaching the top 5. If it hits around 1500 theaters, I would probably say it gets around $7.5 million to $8 million. We also have the animated Sgt. Stubby: An American Hero and tennis drama Borg vs. McEnroe apparently both opening in wide (or wide-ish) release. Once again, I’ve yet to witness a screen count and there’s really no chance either of them sniff the top 5 anyway.

And with that, my projections for the weekend:

1. Rampage

Predicted Gross: $36.6 million

2. A Quiet Place

Predicted Gross: $31.8 million

3. Truth or Dare

Predicted Gross: $16.7 million

4. Ready Player One

Predicted Gross: $13.9 million

5. Blockers

Predicted Gross: $13.3 million

Box Office Results (April 6-8)

As mentioned, it was a loud and massive opening for John Krasinski’s A Quiet Place as the critically acclaimed horror pic took in $50.2 million (way beyond my $31.2 million estimate). That’s the second largest opening of 2018 behind Black Panther as it nearly tripled its meager $17 million budget in just three days. With great word-of-mouth, expect it to play well over the coming weekends.

Pretty much everything made more than my predictions in this first full April weekend. Ready Player One held solidly in weekend #2 with $24.6 million (ahead of my $21.8 million prediction) for $96 million overall.

Well reviewed comedy Blockers had a sturdy debut in third with $20.5 million, besting my $15.2 million projection. Look for the John Cena/Leslie Mann laugh fest to experience minimal declines in coming weekends, similar to what Game Night recently accomplished.

Black Panther took in $8.7 million for fourth (topping my take of $7.2 million) and it once again made some box office history. The Marvel behemoth became the third largest domestic grosser of all time (surpassing Titanic). It will likely stay at that spot behind Star Wars: The Force Awakens and Avatar. The current gross is $665 million.

Acrimony was fifth with $8.3 million (I said $6.5 million). Its two-week tally is $31 million.

Chappaquiddick didn’t make the top 5, but it did considerably better than what I figured. The Kennedy drama was 7th with $5.7 million. I was much lower at $2.3 million.

The inspirational sports drama The Miracle Season was 11th with $3.9 million, serving up close to my $3.8 million prediction.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Truth or Dare Box Office Prediction

Blumhouse Productions and Universal Pictures are hopeful horror fans will be game for Truth or Dare next weekend. Debuting on Friday the 13th, the film puts a scary spin on the time honored contest that we all familiarized ourselves with in our teens. That’s the target audience that it wishes to reach. Jeff Wadlow, who directed KickAss 2, is behind the camera with a cast including Lucy Hale, Tyler Posey, Violett Beane, Hayden Szeto, and Landon Liboiron.

Originally scheduled to premiere on April 27, the pic wisely moved off that weekend when Iron Man, Black Panther, and other Avengers claimed it. However, the current release date poses its own problems as fellow genre title A Quiet Place will be in its sophomore frame and likely still making noise.

That said, Blumhouse has a knack for turning low-budget fright fests into hits. They’ve just come off a banner 2017 that included Split, Get Out, and Happy Death Day. I don’t, however, feel Truth or Dare will manage that trio’s grosses. I’ll estimate a debut in the mid teens range.

Truth or Dare opening weekend prediction: $16.7 million

For my Rampage prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/04/03/rampage-box-office-prediction/

Rampage Box Office Prediction

Pairing Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson with a bunch of CG animals in an adventure flick? If that sounds like a recipe for box office success, that’s because Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle became Sony’s biggest hit at the end of 2017. And next weekend’s Rampage (while it won’t approach the numbers of that franchise follow-up) looks poised to bring in generous earnings.

The Warner Bros release is based loosely on the 1980s video game. It marks Johnson’s third collaboration with director Brad Peyton following Journey: The Mysterious Island and San Andreas. Both of those titles managed to top the century mark ($103 million and $155 million respectively) and this should do the same. Costars include Naomie Harris, Malin Ackerman, Joe Manganiello, Jake Lacy, and Jeffrey Dean Morgan. Perhaps more importantly, other costars are giant gorillas, wolf’s, and alligators.

The question is whether Rampage falls more in line with $27 million debut of Journey 2 or the $54 million accomplished by Andreas. The former seems a bit low to me while the latter is high. I’ll project a mid to possibly high 30s opening is more the ticket.

Rampage opening weekend prediction: $36.6 million

For my Truth or Dare prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/04/03/truth-or-dare-box-office-prediction/