Tag: Kate Winslet

99th Academy Awards Predictions: May 6th Edition

My second helping of ranked Oscar predictions for next year’s 99th ceremony can be called the pre-Cannes estimates. That festival in the French Riviera kicks off May 12th and runs through May 23rd. It will be our first look at several potential contenders: Ryusuke Hamaguchi’s All of a Sudden, Pawel Pawlikowski’s Fatherland, Cristian Mungiu’s Fjord, Na Hong-jin’s Hope, James Gray’s Paper Tiger, and The Man I Love from Ira Sachs to name a few. Keep an eye on the blog for my individual posts exploring the viability of the screening pictures.

The Academy made some news of its own by announcing rule changes. The most significant is that actors can be nominated twice in the same category. There’s been recent examples of when this could have resulted in a performer getting two nods. I would say most recently that Sebastian Stan could have benefited. He was nominated in lead Actor for The Apprentice and a double shot was possible via A Different Man. Going back a ways, Kate Winslet won Best Actress in 2008 for The Reader and might have seen her name pop again for Revolutionary Road. In 2006, Kate’s Titanic mate Leonardo DiCaprio was in contention for Blood Diamond. He could have easily landed another shot via The Departed.

In International Feature Film, the criteria has always been that a submitting nation can choose just one entrant for consideration. While that rule holds, the Academy has added another path to get in. If a picture wins a qualifying international festival (such as Cannes, Berlin, Toronto, Sundance, Venice), it is now a contender. This would have helped Anatomy of a Fall in 2023 since France did not choose it as their representative picture, but it emerged victorious for the Palme d’Or at Cannes.

Since my last update in mid-April, Michael opened to gigantic box office and mediocre reviews. While the audience score on Rotten Tomatoes is high, critical griping could cripple its viability at the Oscars. However, I wouldn’t completely rule out the acclaimed work of Jaafar Jackson and Colman Domingo. Best Picture? Probably a bridge too far despite the gaudy numbers.

The Devil Wears Prada 2 also hit multiplexes. While Meryl Streep was a Best Actress nominee 20 years ago for the original, a second at-bat seems like a reach. The sequel could materialize, however, in Costume Design and/or Original Song where Lady Gaga has a track. Those categories won’t be forecasted until a few weeks down the line.

We also learned that Narnia: The Magician’s Nephew from Greta Gerwig will not be out (on Netflix) until 2027. I had it on the outside looking in at #11. It drops from contention this time around.

You can read all the speculation below and my next update will arrive as Cannes concludes!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)

3. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Digger (PR: 5) (E)

5. Fjord (PR: 6) (E)

6. No One Cares (PR: 6) (E)

7. Fatherland (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Dune: Part Three (PR: 10) (+2)

9. The Social Reckoning (PR: 9) (E)

10. All of a Sudden (PR: 7) (-3)

Other Possibilities:

11. Hope (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Cry to Heaven (PR: 16) (+4)

13. A Place in Hell (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Paper Tiger (PR: 21) (+7)

15. Werwulf (PR: 18) (+3)

16. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 23) (+7)

17. Josephine (PR: 17) (E)

18. Saturn Return (PR: 22) (+4)

19. The Entertainment System is Down (PR: 14) (-5)

20. Jack of Spades (PR: 24) (+4)

21. Being Heumann (PR: 15) (-6)

22. A Long Winter (PR: 13) (-9)

23. Behemoth! (PR: 25) (+2)

24. Michael (PR: 20) (-4)

25. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 19) (-6)

Dropped Out:

Narnia: The Magician’s Nephew

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Alejandro Gonzalez Iñárritu, Digger (PR: 2) (E)

3. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Cristian Mingiu, Fjord (PR: 3) (+1)

5. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Pawel Pawlikowski, Fatherland (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Jesse Eisenberg, No One Cares (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Na Hong-jin, Hope (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Tom Ford, Cry to Heaven (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Aaron Sorkin, The Social Reckoning (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Robert Eggers, Werwulf (PR: 14) (+1)

14. James Gray, Paper Tiger (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Greg Kwedar, Saturn Return (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Greta Gerwig, Narnia: The Magician’s Nephew

Ruben Östlund, The Entertainment System is Down

David Fincher, The Adventures of Cliff Booth

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Renate Reinsve, Fjord (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sandra Hüller, Fatherland (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Julianne Moore, No One Cares (PR: 3) (E)

4. Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Michelle Williams, A Place in Hell (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden (PR: 6) (E)

7. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Sandra Hüller, Rose (PR: 11) (+3)

9. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Sophie Okonedo, Clarissa (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Mason Reeves, Josephine (PR: 8) (-3)

12. Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 14) (+2)

13. Rachel Brosnahan, Saturn Return (PR: 13) (E)

14. Penélope Cruz, Bunker (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Lily Gladstone, The Memory Police (PR: 12) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Amy Adams, At the Sea

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Tom Cruise, Digger (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sebastian Stan, Fjord (PR: 4) (+1)

4. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Hanns Zischler, Fatherland (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Matt Damon, The Odyssey (PR: 6) (E)

7. Dominic Sessa, Tony (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Jaafar Jackson, Michael (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Nicholas Hoult, Cry to Heaven (PR: 9) (E)

10. John Turturro, The Only Living Pickpocket in New York (PR: 15) (+5)

11. Jeremy Allen White, The Social Reckoning (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Adam Driver, Paper Tiger (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Josh O’Connor, Jack of Spades (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Rami Malek, The Man I Love (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Three (PR: 11) (-4)

Dropped Out:

Robert Aramayo, I Swear

Pedro Pascal, Behemoth!

Brad Pitt, The Adventures of Cliff Booth

Charles Melton, Saturn Return

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mariana di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Sandra Hüller, Digger (PR: 6) (+4)

3. Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (-2)

4. Halle Bailey, No One Cares (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Daisy Edgar-Jones, A Place in Hell (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Tao Okamato, All of a Sudden (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 8) (E)

9. Scarlett Johannson, Paper Tiger (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Lesley Manville, Jack of Spades (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Esmé Creed-Miles, Sense and Sensibility (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Kirsten Dunst, The Entertainment System is Down (PR: 12) (E)

13. Caitriona Balfe, A Long Winter (PR: 9) (-4)

14. Penélope Cruz, The Invite (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Gemma Chan, Josephine (PR: 13) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Wunmi Mosaku, The Social Reckoning

Frances McDormand, Jack of Spades

Elizabeth Debicki, The Adventures of Cliff Booth

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Paul Giamatti, No One Cares (PR: 1) (E)

2. John Goodman, Digger (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Robert Pattinson, The Odyssey (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning (PR: 6) (-1)

7. Colman Domingo, Michael (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Andrew Scott, A Place in Hell (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Tom Holland, The Odyssey (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Jesse Plemons, Digger (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Channing Tatum, Josephine (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Mark Ruffalo, Being Heumann (PR: 9) (-3)

13. David Oyelowo, Clarissa (PR: 13) (E)

14. Antonio Banderas, Tony (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Cry to Heaven (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Daniel Brühl, The Entertainment System is Down

Riz Ahmed, Digger

    Oscar Predictions – Avatar: Fire and Ash

    Avatar: Fire and Ash, James Cameron’s third feature in his epic sci-fi franchise, is the last major piece of the 98th Academy Awards puzzle to come into focus. Opening Friday, the review embargo was lifted today as it hopes to rule the box office over the holidays. While it looks to join the multi-billion dollar club like its two predecessors, Fire additionally seeks to heat up Oscar ballots.

    The 2009 original landed nine nominations – Picture, Director, Art Direction (which it won), Cinematography (another victory), Film Editing, Original Score, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, and Visual Effects (a third trophy). Its Rotten Tomatoes score was 81% with 83 on Metacritic.

    When Avatar: The Way of Water came out 13 years later, Sound Editing and Sound Mixing was combined into just Sound while Art Direction was now Production Design. Water was nominated for both along with Picture. The sole win came for its Visual Effects. Rotten Tomatoes was 76% with Metacritic at 67.

    Fire critical reaction is so far the weakest of the trilogy with 70% on RT and a 61 Metacritic. With Oscar shortlists released this afternoon, we already know it won’t be nominated for Cinematography since it is not one of the contending 16 features. It did make four other shortlisted races – Original Score, Original Song (the Miley Cyrus track “Dream As One”), Sound, and Visual Effects.

    Let’s get the obvious out of the way – Visual Effects is a given and Fire is the frontrunner. Sound is likely. I’m not convinced it makes the musical cut in either Score or Song.

    What’s left is Picture and Production Design – the other two competitions where the other Avatar‘s got in. The latter is a stronger possibility. This third trip to Pandora could still get into BP. Yet if the Academy goes with a successful late 2025 sequel, I’d give Wicked: For Good an edge. It’s entirely feasible that neither get in. I suspect Fire may only rise in tech competitions when all is said and done. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

    Oscar Predictions: Goodbye June

    On paper, Goodbye June sure sounds like an Oscar contender. It marks the directorial debut of seven-time nominee (and one-time winner) Kate Winslet from a screenplay written by her son Joe Anders. The family drama set during the holidays features an awards bait cast including Toni Collette, Johnny Flynn, Andrea Riseborough, Timothy Spall, Helen Mirren, and Winslet herself. It is out in limited fashion this weekend before a Christmas Eve Netflix bow.

    However, as was the case with yesterday’s post on Ella McCay, the fact that it skipped festivals and that the review embargo is lifting only now is telling. Heck there wasn’t even a trailer until a month ago. The 68% Rotten Tomatoes isn’t so bad, but Metacritic is at 49. That’s not the numbers needed for Oscar attention and you can say goodbye to its prospects. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

    Avatar: Fire and Ash Box Office Prediction

    Avatar: Fire and Ash hopes to heat up the holiday box office season on December 19th. Clocking in at nearly 3 hours and 20 minutes, James Cameron’s epic sci-fi threequel arrives 16 years after the record breaking original and 3 years behind Avatar: The Way of Water. The large list of returning cast members doing their motion capture work includes Sam Worthington, Zoe Saldaña, Stephen Lang, Sigourney Weaver, Kate Winslet, CCH Pounder, Giovanni Ribisi, Joel David Moore, Dileep Rao, Matt Gerald, Cliff Curtis, Edie Falco, Brendan Cowell, Jemaine Clement, Britain Dalton, Trinity Jo-Li Bliss, and Jack Champion. Oona Chaplin (daughter of Geraldine and granddaughter of Charlie) is a new addition and said to be a standout in a villainess turn.

    Back in 2009, Avatar was seen a big risk for 20th Century Studios. After a $77 million opening, it legged out to (at the time) become the biggest blockbuster in history with $749 million domestically. That number has climbed to $785 million when factoring re-releases. The worldwide total is $2.9 billion. 2022’s The Way of Water actually underperformed in its first frame with $134 million but held fantastically throughout the holidays and beyond. It ended up with $688 million stateside after counting its recent re-release and $2.3 billion across the globe.

    Forecasts have Fire coming in lower than Water and that makes sense. There was a 13 year build-up of anticipation for the first sequel. Only a three-year gap separates these. Competitors didn’t shy away from Fire either. While Water was the only wide release in its mid-December date, this will have animated biblical tale David, female catering The Housemaid, and a SpongeBob flick providing alternatives. To be fair, part of Water‘s lack of competition was due to COVID related lack of product.

    Fire might fall just under $100 million for starters. Then it will look for a long and prosperous road ahead over the holidays and new year.

    Avatar: Fire and Ash opening weekend prediction: $98 million

    For my David prediction, click here:

    David Box Office Prediction

    For my The Housemaid prediction, click here:

    The Housemaid Box Office Prediction

    For my The SpongeBob Movie: Search for SquarePants prediction, click here:

    The SpongeBob Movie: Search for SquarePants Box Office Prediction

    Avatar: The Way of Water Re-Release Box Office Prediction

    Before the third edition of James Cameron’s money minting franchise arrives in December, predecessor Avatar: The Way of Water re-releases on October 3rd. Originally out in December 2022, the sci-fi epic looks to add to its $684 million in domestic dollars (good for 7th all-time) and excite moviegoers for Avatar: Fire an Ash.

    This is not a new release pattern for 20th Century Studios. In September 2022, the first Avatar (the 4th biggest stateside grosser ever) had a return engagement in multiplexes. It added $10.5 million in its first 3 days.

    The slightly diminishing (though still potent) results that greeted Water should apply once again. The re-release of 2009’s original was likely assisted by a longer lag time than what we have here. Nevertheless I’ll say this return engagement still manages mid single digits.

    Avatar: The Way of Water re-release opening weekend prediction: $4.4 million

    For my Taylor Swift: The Official Release Party of a Showgirl prediction, click here:

    Taylor Swift: The Official Release Party of a Showgirl Box Office Prediction

    For my The Smashing Machine prediction, click here:

    The Smashing Machine Box Office Prediction

    For my Good Boy prediction, click here:

    Good Boy Box Office Prediction

    Best Picture 2004: The Expanded Ten

    Previously on the blog, I wrote a series on a particular piece of speculative Oscar history. From 2009 to the present, there has been anywhere from 8-10 Best Pictures nominees at the Academy Awards. The number has been set at 10 in recently years and fluctuated previously. Before 2009, it was a quintet of films competing for the prize. I penned numerous posts making predictions on which five pics would have made the cut if it had stayed at that smaller number. **Click on that Oscar History tab on the blog to access all of them! Also – I still need to write these posts for 2023 and 2024. They’re coming.**

    Now my speculation turns to the reverse. What if the Academy had always honored 10 motion pictures? From 1944-2008, there was a set five vying for attention. For a completist view, there were five for the first two Oscars (1929 and 1930). We had eight in 1931. From 1932 to 1943, it was ten.

    This series will project the other five movies that I believe would’ve gotten in. I’ve already covered 2005-08 and you can peruse my posts on them here:

    Best Picture 2005: The Expanded Ten
    Best Picture 2006: The Expanded Ten
    Best Picture 2007: The Expanded Ten
    Best Picture 2008: The Expanded Ten

    We move to 2004. There’s an obvious five pictures that would’ve made the cut and that’s the group that were nominated. It begins with Clint Eastwood’s Million Dollar Baby. That boxing drama made a late surge 21 years back and took four trophies – Picture, Director, Actress (Hilary Swank), and Supporting Actor and was nominated for three more.

    Martin Scorsese’s The Aviator scored a ceremony high 11 nods and won five – Cate Blanchett in Supporting Actress, Art Direction, Cinematography, Costume Design, and Film Editing. Finding Neverland from Marc Forster landed 7 nominations with a victory in Original Score. Taylor Hackford’s musical biopic Ray made Jamie Foxx a Best Actor victor and won Sound Editing in addition to nods in BP, Director, and two tech races. Alexander Payne’s Sideways was also up for Director, two acting races (though notably not Paul Giamatti in lead actor), and was the recipient of Adapted Screenplay.

    That’s the quintet we know. Now we can speculate. And that begins with an unlikely contender in Michael Moore’s Fahrenheit 9/11. Moviegoers of a certain younger age may not recall. but the documentarian’s critical look at George W. Bush’s presidency and the Iraq War was a Palme d’Or winner at Cannes, a critical smash, and became the highest grossing documentary of all time in the summer of 2004. However, Moore chose not to submit Fahrenheit for consideration in Documentary Feature where it probably would’ve been a lock to win that prize.

    Fahrenheit was, however, eligible for BP. And this is the rare place on the blog where I will speak of politics coming into play. Had President Bush lost reelection in 2004, Fahrenheit might’ve been seen as a contributing factor. And in Hollywood, that might’ve been enough to earn it a spot among the theoretical 10 nominees. That did not happen and I’m therefore not including it among the expanded contenders.

    While Fahrenheit is a question mark, there are some features that I feel strongly would have made the longer list. Mike Leigh’s Vera Drake was up for Director, Actress (Imelda Staunton), and Original Screenplay. Michel Gondry’s Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind was the winner in Original Screenplay while Kate Winslet was up in Actress (though Jim Carrey was notably snubbed in Actor). Hotel Rwanda was also nominated in Original Screenplay along with performers Don Cheadle and Sophie Okenedo.

    In previous posts covering 2007-2008, Ratatouille and Wall-E made the expanded 10. For 2004, same goes for The Incredibles. The Pixar property was the Animated Feature and Sound Editing honoree and it had nominations in (you guessed it) Original Screenplay and Sound Mixing.

    That leaves one spot and there’s lots of contenders. Mel Gibson’s The Passion of the Christ was a box office smash that was up for Original Score, Cinematography, and Makeup. Yet I question whether the Academy would’ve gone for it even with five added possibilities.

    Collateral from Michael Mann saw Jamie Foxx as a double nominee in Supporting Actor and a Film Editing nod. Closer had supporting nominations for Clive Owen and Natalie Portman. If it had managed a Screenplay nomination, I might’ve included it. Various tech nominations were bestowed upon Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban, Lemony Snicket’s A Series of Unfortunate Events, The Phantom of the Opera, Spider-Man 2, and A Very Long Engagement. If this were a do-over list, Azkaban probably would get in considering many believe it’s the best of the franchise. I don’t believe you’d see it at the time. Same goes for the second Spidey adventure.

    For the tenth spot (and it’s admittedly a tricky one), I’m settling on The Motorcycle Diaries from Walter Salles. Diaries was subject to controversy at the Oscars in the Best Foreign Language Film (now International Feature Film) competition. The Academy ruled it ineligible in that race because “it didn’t have sufficient elements from any of the countries to qualify” (huh?). It still picked up nods in Adapted Screenplay and won Original Song. With a doubling of nominees, I think voters would’ve found room for it. That’s especially since it should have been a lock in the foreign derby.

    This means my expanded ten consists of:

    The Aviator

    Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind

    Finding Neverland

    Hotel Rwanda

    The Incredibles

    Million Dollar Baby

    The Motorcycle Diaries

    Ray

    Sideways

    Vera Drake

    I’ll have 2003 up next in this series!

    Oscar Predictions: The Phoenician Scheme

    Wes Anderson is back at Cannes with The Phoenician Scheme, his latest comedy sporting a gigantic cast opening stateside June 6th. Benicio del Toro and Mia Threapleton have the most significant roles with an ensemble also (deep breath) including Michael Cera, Riz Ahmed, Tom Hanks, Bryan Cranston, Mathieu Amalric, Richard Ayoade, Jeffrey Wright, Scarlett Johansson, Benedict Cumberbatch, Rupert Friend, Hope Davis, Bill Murray, Charlotte Gainsbourg, and Willem Dafoe.

    We are more than a decade removed from The Grand Budapest Hotel which turned out to be Anderson’s most significant awards contender yet (nine Oscar nods with victories in Costume Design, Makeup & Hairstyling, Original Score, and Production Design). His two Phoenician predecessors generated minimal attention in their seasons with The French Dispatch up for Score at the Globes and Asteroid City blanked from the Academy and at the Globes.

    Phoenician‘s reaction in France indicates this will follow in the footsteps of those recent titles and not Hotel. The Rotten Tomatoes rating is 79% with Metacritic at 74. Even with the typical praise for Production Design and Score, I doubt this shows up anywhere at the Oscars and that includes the new Casting category. Depending on competition, del Toro and Threapleton (daughter of Kate Winslet) could be threats for noms in the Musical/Comedy races in their respective acting derbies. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

    Oscars: The Case of Fernanda Torres in I’m Still Here

    As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

    It began with the ten Best Picture contenders and now alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. The BP nominee posts are up and they’re readily available for your perusing pleasure. Today is our fifth and final entry in Best Actress and that’s Fernanda Torres in I’m Still Here from Walter Salles. If you missed my posts covering the other Actress nominees, they’re linked at the bottom.

    Previous Acting Oscar Nominations:

    None

    The Case for Fernanda Torres:

    The Brazilian performer had her stateside awards breakthrough with the acclaimed political drama. This culminated in a fairly surprising victory at the Golden Globes for Actress in a Drama, beating out stalwarts like Angelina Jolie (Maria), Nicole Kidman (Babygirl), and Kate Winslet (Lee).

    The Case Against Fernanda Torres:

    That Globe win is a bit misleading since she’s only nominee of the six to make the Academy’s cut. The other four Oscar contenders were all up for Actress in a Musical or Comedy. This includes BAFTA recipient Mikey Madison (Anora) and Globe/Critics Choice honoree Demi Moore (The Substance). Torres failed to achieve nominations at BAFTA, SAG, and Critics Choice.

    The Verdict:

    It’s not an impossibility that Torres could upset, but she is a distant third behind Madison and Moore.

    My Case Of posts will continue with the fifth hopeful in Best Actor and that’s Sebastian Stan in The Apprentice…

    Oscars: The Case of Cynthia Erivo in Wicked
    Oscars: The Case of Karla Sofia Gascón in Emilia Pérez
    Oscars: The Case of Mikey Madison in Anora
    Oscars: The Case of Demi Moore in The Substance

    78th BAFTA Awards Nominations Reaction

    Nominations for the 78th BAFTA Awards, airing February 16th, were unveiled today and we have another key Oscar precursor to pontificate about. I went 91 for 123 with Conclave (as I forecasted) leading all pictures in contention. It even managed to get 12 nods and that’s ahead of my call of 11. Let’s walk through each race with how I did and some general commentary.

    Best Film

    Anora, The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Emilia Pérez

    How I Did: 4/5

    I predicted The Substance over Unknown, which continues its highly impressive precursor run. This should come down to The Brutalist vs. Conclave unless the Brits really fall for Anora or Pérez.

    Outstanding British Film

    Bird, Blitz, Conclave, Gladiator II, Hard Truths, Kneecap, Lee, Love Lies Bleeding, The Outrun, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl

    How I Did: 9/10

    I thought Civil War would make the cut instead of Love Lies Bleeding. As the only Best Film contender in this bunch, Conclave has an obvious edge.

    Outstanding Debut By a British Writer, Director or Producer

    Hoard, Kneecap, Monkey Man, Santosh, Sister Midnight

    How I Did: 2/5

    Oof. I went with Bring Them Down, Grand Theft Hamlet, and The Taste of Mango over Hoard, my alternate Monkey Man, and Sister Midnight. This is a pretty easy pick with Kneecap out front.

    Children’s and Family Film

    Flow, Kensuke’s Kingdom, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot

    How I Did: 3/4

    I went with Young Woman and the Sea over Kingdom. This new category could go to Robot, but watch out for Flow or even Wallace.

    Film Not in the English Language

    All We Imagine as Light, Emilia Pérez, I’m Still Here, Kneecap, The Seed of the Sacred Fig

    How I Did: 4/5

    I called a bit of an upset with La Chimera popping up in this quintet instead of Fig. The safe money is on Pérez for the victory.

    Documentary

    Black Box Diaries, Daughters, No Other Land, Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story, Will & Harper

    How I Did: 5/5 (!)

    No Other Land has dominated early critics groups and is the favorite.

    Animated Film

    Flow, Inside Out 2, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot

    How I Did: 3/4

    Like Children’s and Family Film, this could be a three-way battle between Flow, Wallace, and Robot. I predicted Memoir of a Snail instead of Inside Out 2.

    Director

    Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez), Sean Baker (Anora), Edward Berger (Conclave), Brady Corbet (The Brutalist), Coralie Fargeat (The Substance), Denis Villeneuve (Dune: Part Two)

    How I Did: 5/6

    I feel like Villeneuve needed this to say viable in the Oscar convo and he gets in over my pick of Payal Kapadia for All We Imagine as Light. Even if it doesn’t win Best Film, Corbet is likely in the lead. Yet I wouldn’t discount Berger with the nomination leading Conclave.

    Original Screenplay

    Anora, The Brutalist, Kneecap, A Real Pain, The Substance

    How I Did: 5/5 (!)

    This is where Anora could get a prize.

    Adapted Screenplay

    A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Nickel Boys, Sing Sing

    How I Did: 4/5

    Sing Sing joins the party over Wicked. This should be a Conclave win.

    Actress

    Cynthia Erivo (Wicked), Karla Sofia Gascón (Emilia Pérez), Marianne Jean-Baptiste (Hard Truths), Mikey Madison (Anora), Demi Moore (The Substance), Saoirse Ronan (The Outrun)

    How I Did: 5/6

    I wouldn’t ignore the possibility of a surprise with Jean-Baptiste, but should be between Madison and Moore. Ronan finally gets some precursor attention over my pick of Kate Winslet in Lee.

    Actor

    Adrien Brody (The Brutalist), Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown), Colman Domingo (Sing Sing), Ralph Fiennes (Conclave), Hugh Grant (Heretic), Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice)

    How I Did: 5/6

    Mr. Grant makes the sextet over the rather unexpected omission of Daniel Craig in Queer. Expect either Brody or Chalamet for the gold.

    Supporting Actress

    Jamie Lee Curtis (The Last Showgirl), Selena Gomez (Emilia Pérez), Ariana Grande (Wicked), Felicity Jones (The Brutalist), Isabella Rossellini (Conclave), Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez)

    How I Did: 4/6

    Saldaña is the frontrunner. Curtis (fresh off her SAG nod) and Gomez compete instead of Michele Austin (Hard Truths) and Margaret Qualley (The Substance). Except for Grande and Saldaña, the battle for the three slots in this race at the Oscars is fascinating with several performers in contention.

    Supporting Actor

    Yura Borisov (Anora), Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain), Clarence Maclin (Sing Sing), Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown), Guy Pearce (The Brutalist), Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice)

    How I Did: 5/6

    I thought maybe Denzel Washington would get his (somehow) first BAFTA nomination for Gladiator II. It didn’t happen and went to Clarence Maclin instead. Culkin is the frontrunner with Pearce as a potential spoiler.

    Casting

    Anora, The Apprentice, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Kneecap

    How I Did: 2/5

    This unpredictable race proved to be just that. I went with Blitz, Emilia Pérez, and Wicked and not The Apprentice, A Complete Unknown, and Kneecap. The winner? Your guess is as good as mine. Let’s say Anora for now.

    Cinematography

    The Brutalist, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Nosferatu

    How I Did: 4/5

    Perez over Anora with The Brutalist or perhaps Conclave out front.

    Costume Design

    Blitz, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Nosferatu, Wicked

    How I Did: 2/5

    Ouch. I said Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, Dune: Part Two, and Gladiator II and not Blitz, A Complete Unknown or Conclave. This should be Wicked.

    Editing

    Anora, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Kneecap

    How I Did: 3/5

    Predicted Challengers (which was blanked) and The Substance over Dune and Kneecap. Conclave could take this.

    Make-Up and Hair

    Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Nosferatu, The Substance, Wicked

    How I Did: 4/5

    Pérez over Beetlejuice as The Substance seeks the victory.

    Original Score

    The Brutalist, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Nosferatu, The Wild Robot

    How I Did: 3/5

    Nosferatu and Robot over Blitz and The Substance. Like Best Film, this might be between The Brutalist and Conclave.

    Production Design

    The Brutalist, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Nosferatu, Wicked

    How I Did: 4/5

    The Brutalist over Gladiator II (which had a poor showing today). This could be Wicked.

    Sound

    Blitz, Dune: Part Two, Gladiator II, The Substance, Wicked

    How I Did: 2/5

    Some real surprises here as Civil War, A Complete Unknown, and Emilia Pérez are out with Blitz, Gladiator II, and Wicked in. This should be Dune.

    Special Visual Effects

    Better Man, Dune: Part Two, Gladiator II, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Wicked

    How I Did: 4/5

    Wicked instead of Alien: Romulus as Dune should get this (though Better Man has slight upset potential).

    And there you have it! Keep an eye on the blog as we get closer to final Oscar predictions coming Sunday…

    78th BAFTA Awards Nomination Predictions

    The BAFTAs, the United Kingdom’s equivalent of the Academy Awards, unveil their nominees this Wednesday, January 15th. This comes after they revealed their long lists for contenders in their various races a little over a week ago.

    Here are my picks for the nominees across the competitions with an alternate picked in each. I’ll have a recap with how I did and general thoughts mid-week!

    Best Film

    Anora, The Brutalist, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, The Substance

    Alternate – A Complete Unknown

    Outstanding British Film

    Bird, Blitz, Civil War, Conclave, Gladiator II, Hard Truths, Kneecap, Lee, The Outrun, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl

    Alternate – Wicked Little Letters

    Outstanding Debut by a British Writer, Director or Producer

    Bring Them Down, Grand Theft Hamlet, Kneecap, Santosh, The Taste of Mango

    Alternate – Monkey Man

    Best Children’s and Family Film

    Flow, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot, Young Woman and the Sea

    Alternate – Piece by Piece

    Best Film Not in the English Language

    All We Imagine as Light, Emilia Pérez, I’m Still Here, Kneecap, La Chimera

    Alternate – The Seed of the Sacred Fig

    Best Documentary

    Black Box Diaries, Daughters, No Other Land, Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story, Will & Harper

    Alternate – Elton John: Never Too Late

    Best Animated Feature

    Flow, Memoir of a Snail, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot

    Alternate – Inside Out 2

    Best Director

    Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez), Sean Baker (Anora), Edward Berger (Conclave), Brady Corbet (The Brutalist), Payal Kapadia (All We Imagine as Light), Coralie Fargeat (The Substance)

    Alternate – Denis Villeneuve (Dune: Part Two)

    Best Original Screenplay

    Anora, The Brutalist, Kneecap, A Real Pain, The Substance

    Alternate – All We Imagine as Light

    Best Adapted Screenplay

    A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Nickel Boys, Wicked

    Alternate – Sing Sing

    Best Actress

    Cynthia Erivo (Wicked), Karla Sofia Gascón (Emilia Pérez), Marianne Jean-Baptiste (Hard Truths), Mikey Madison (Anora), Demi Moore (The Substance), Kate Winslet (Lee)

    Alternate – Nicole Kidman, Babygirl

    Best Actor

    Adrien Brody (The Brutalist), Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown), Daniel Craig (Queer), Colman Domingo (Sing Sing), Ralph Fiennes (Conclave), Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice)

    Alternate – Hugh Grant (Heretic)

    Best Supporting Actress

    Michele Austin (Hard Truths), Ariana Grande (Wicked), Felicity Jones (The Brutalist), Margaret Qualley (The Substance), Isabella Rossellini (Conclave), Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez)

    Alternate – Selena Gomez (Emilia Pérez)

    Best Supporting Actor

    Yura Borisov (Anora), Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain), Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown), Guy Pearce (The Brutalist), Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice), Denzel Washington (Gladiator II)

    Alternate – Clarence Maclin (Sing Sing)

    Best Casting

    Anora, Blitz, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Wicked

    Alternate – Kneecap

    Best Cinematography

    Anora, The Brutalist, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Nosferatu

    Alternate – Emilia Pérez

    Best Costume Design

    Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, Dune: Part Two, Gladiator II, Nosferatu, Wicked

    Alternate – Blitz

    Best Editing

    Anora, Challengers, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, The Substance

    Alternate – Dune: Part Two

    Best Makeup and Hair

    Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, Dune: Part Two, Nosferatu, The Substance, Wicked

    Alternate – Emilia Pérez

    Best Original Score

    Blitz, The Brutalist, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, The Substance

    Alternate – Wicked

    Best Production Design

    Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Gladiator II, Nosferatu, Wicked

    Alternate – The Brutalist

    Best Special Visual Effects

    Alien: Romulus, Better Man, Dune: Part Two, Gladiator II, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes

    Alternate – Wicked

    Best Sound

    Civil War, A Complete Unknown, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Wicked

    Alternate – The Substance

    That works out to these pictures landing these numbers of nominations:

    11 Nominations

    Conclave

    10 Nominations

    Emilia Pérez

    8 Nominations

    Anora, The Brutalist, The Substance, Wicked

    6 Nominations

    Dune: Part Two

    5 Nominations

    Gladiator II

    4 Nominations

    A Complete Unknown, Kneecap, Nosferatu

    3 Nominations

    Blitz, Hard Truths, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl

    2 Nominations

    All We Imagine as Light, The Apprentice, Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, Civil War, Flow, Lee, A Real Pain, The Wild Robot

    1 Nomination

    Alien: Romulus, Better Man, Bird, Black Box Diaries, Bring Them Down, Challengers, Daughters, Grand Theft Hamlet, I’m Still Here, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, La Chimera, Memoir of a Snail, Nickel Boys, No Other Land, The Outrun, Queer, Santosh, Sing Sing, Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story, The Taste of Mango, Will & Harper, Young Woman and the Sea