The 31st Critics Choice Awards aired tonight and it’s the first major awards show of the season with the Golden Globes up in one week. Obviously CCA could offer the first clues as to what will follow with the Oscars as the grand finale.
In what was seen as a Warner Bros showdown between One Battle After Another and Sinners for Best Picture, it was Battle that prevailed as I predicted. Yet it was Sinners and (unexpectedly) Frankenstein that tied for the most victories at four apiece.
I went 17/23 in my predictions which I’ll take in a night that gave us a couple of legit surprises. Besides BP, Battle took Director (Paul Thomas Anderson) and Adapted Screenplay (also PTA) for three trophies. It solidifies the pic as the frontrunner at the Oscars.
Sinners emerged victorious in Original Screenplay, Young Actor/Actress (Miles Caton), Score, and Casting and Ensemble (where I had Battle projected).
The lead acting categories went as planned with Jessie Buckley (Hamnet) in Actress and Timothée Chalamet as Marty Supreme in Actor. You can expect to see both make more podium walks in the coming weeks.
I correctly called Amy Madigan as Supporting Actress for the already iconic Aunt Gladys in Weapons. It will be interesting to see if she racks up more wins as the season goes along.
The acting derby that was a genuine shocker was Supporting Actor where Jacob Elordi took the prize for Frankenstein. I had Benicio Del Toro (Battle). Truth be told, I would’ve slotted Elordi fifth or sixth as far as win possibility and have had him in and out of my quintet at the Oscars. We’ll see if this is a one-off, but this definitely increases his visibility in forthcoming ceremonies. I did correctly project Guillermo del Toro’s monster tale in Costume Design, Hair & Makeup, and Production Design.
Here’s where else I got it right – The Naked Gun as Best Comedy, KPop Demon Hunters for Animated Feature and Song (“Golden”), Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning for Stunt Design, and Avatar: Fire and Ash in Visual Effects.
Where I went wrong – F1 picked up two CCA’s in Editing and Sound. I respectively went with Battle and Sinners. Train Dreams is the Cinematography victor over Battle.
Finally, The Secret Agent is the 2nd biggest surprise (after Elordi) as Best Foreign Language Film where I had It Was Just an Accident predicted and No Other Choice as runner-up.
The Golden Globes are a week away. I will have winner predictions up on the blog on Wednesday!
All in all, these movies generated these numbers of victories:
4 Wins
Frankenstein, Sinners
3 Wins
One Battle After Another
2 Wins
F1, KPop Demon Hunters
1 Win
Avatar: Fire and Ash, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning, The Naked Gun, The Secret Agent, Train Dreams, Weapons
Now called the SAG Actor Awards and not just SAG Awards, the 32nd edition of the ceremony airs March 1 on Netflix. Nominations are out this Wednesday. Acting categories usually match Oscar at a 4/5 clip while top race Best Ensemble is usually heavy on eventual Academy BP contenders. Last year, all five SAG nominees ended up being in the BP Oscar ten. The year prior it was four.
Here are my predictions in the six SAG Actor races with an alternate for each. I’ll have a recap up with my thoughts and how I performed on Wednesday!
Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
Sentimental Value
Sinners
Alternate – Wicked: For Good
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role
Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good
Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value
Emma Stone, Bugonia
Alternate – Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role
Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme
Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another
Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon
Michael B. Jordan, Sinners
Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent
Alternate – Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role
Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine
Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value
Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good
Amy Madigan, Weapons
Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another
Alternate – Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners
Outstanding Performane by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another
Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein
Sean Penn, One Battle After Another
Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly
Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value
Alternate – Paul Mescal, Hamnet
Outstanding Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture
Avatar: Fire and Ash
F1
Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning
Sinners
Wicked: For Good
Alternate – One Battle After Another
That means I’m projecting these numbers of nominations for these pictures:
5 Nominations
One Battle After Another
4 Nominations
Sentimental Value
3 Nominations
Sinners, Wicked: For Good
2 Nominations
Hamnet, Marty Supreme
1 Nomination
Avatar: Fire and Ash, Blue Moon, Bugonia, F1, Frankenstein, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You, Jay Kelly Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning, The Secret Agent, The Smashing Machine, Weapons
Marking the third directorial feature for Bradley Cooper, dramedy Is This Thing On? expands nationwide on January 9th. Will Arnett stars as a divorcee who stumbles into stand-up comedy. Laura Dern, Cooper, Andra Day, Amy Sedaris, Arnett’s Smartless cohost Sean Hayes, Christine Ebersole, and Ciarán Hinds are among the supporting cast.
Critical response is on the plus side with 87% on Rotten Tomatoes and 74 on Metacritic. Cooper’s behind the camera debut, 2018’s A Star Is Born, was a box office smash that generated numerous Oscar nods. 2023’s follow-up Maestro went the Netflix route and also managed a Best Picture nod along with acting mentions. Thing is not expected to be an awards player. It’s made just over $1 million in limited release. In all likelihood, this will perform better on the coasts. Despite the presence of Cooper, I don’t see much anticipation.
I will project that this struggles with the expansion and may not even reach $3 million.
Is This Thing On? wide opening weekend prediction: $2.6 million
For my Greenland 2: Migration prediction, click here:
After premiering at Fantastic Fest last September, Primate swings into multiplexes on January 9th. Centered on a chimp gone rabid during a family vacation, Johannes Roberts (no stranger to the genre with 47 Meters Down and The Strangers: Prey at Night to his credit) directs. Non-monkey cast members include Johnny Sequoyah, Jessica Alexander, and Troy Kotsur.
With 92% on Rotten Tomatoes, reviewers are calling it a fun creature feature throwback. This probably won’t get near the $14 million achieved by last year’s The Monkey, which focused on a demented title character of the toy variety.
As I’ve written many times, horror pics always have the ability to exceed estimates. With that caveat, I’ll project high single digits.
Primate opening weekend prediction: $8.6 million
For my Greenland 2: Migration prediction, click here:
Gerard Butler headlines the disaster flick sequel Greenland 2: Migration which kicks off 2026 releases on January 9th. He reunites with his Angel Has Fallen and Kandahar director Ric Roman Waugh for a follow-up to the 2020 original. Costars include Morena Baccarin and Roman Griffin Davis.
A comp to part 1 is impossible since it was put out in December 2020 without a theatrical release due to the COVID pandemic. It did perform well on home viewing. Butler’s genre pics have a history with early January debuts. 2023’s Plane earned just over $10 million out of the gate while last year’s Den of Thieves 2: Pantera made off with $15 million.
My hunch is that Migration gets right between those numbers for a respectable enough start.
Greenland 2: Migration opening weekend prediction: $12.7 million
This Sunday, January 4th, the 31st Critics’ Choice Awards air on E! and USA (with return host Chelsea Handler) and they should provide the first glimpse of various future Oscar winners even before nominations come out. The Best Picture winner at CCA has matched the Academy’s 6 out of the past 10 years including the last 3 in a row. As of late, the acting winners match at about a 3 for 4 ratio.
What’s the main storyline in my estimation? I believe there’s a Warner Bros showdown in BP between One Battle After Another and Sinners (that same logic applies to Director). The former from Paul Thomas Anderson appears to be the frontrunner, but I wouldn’t be surprised if CCA honored Ryan Coogler’s vampiric saga. It’s a close call though I’m going with the safer bet.
Let’s walk through each category with a winner and runner-up selection and some brief commentary.
Best Picture
Nominees: Bugonia, Frankenstein, Hamnet, Jay Kelly, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sentimental Value, Sinners, Train Dreams, Wicked: For Good
Winner: One Battle After Another
Runner-Up: Sinners
See above
Best Director
Nominees: Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another), Ryan Coogler (Sinners), Guillermo del Toro (Frankenstein), Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme), Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value), Chloé Zhao (Hamnet)
Winner: Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
Runner-Up: Ryan Coogler, Sinners
See above
Best Actress
Nominees: Jessie Buckley (Hamnet), Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You), Chase Infiniti (One Battle After Another), Renate Reinsve (Sentimental Value), Amanda Seyfried (The Testament of Ann Lee), Emma Stone (Bugonia)
It is generally assumed that Buckley is the easiest pick of the acting quartet to forecast and that she is poised to sweep through the season. This is where it should begin. If there is a threat, watch out for Reinsve or Byrne.
Winner: Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
Runner-Up: Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value
Best Actor
Nominees: Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme), Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another), Joel Edgerton (Train Dreams), Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon), Michael B. Jordan (Sinners), Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent)
DiCaprio could take this and I wouldn’t totally discount Hawke or Moura for the upset. However, the smart money is on Chalamet to triumph and potentially run the table.
Winner: Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme
Runner-Up: Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another
Best Supporting Actress
Nominees: Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value), Ariana Grande (Wicked: For Good), Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass (Sentimental Value), Amy Madigan (Weapons), Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners), Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another)
This is a tough one. I suspect the Sentimental performers will cancel each other out and Mosaku is unlikely. CCA could actually honor Grande and I think she has a stronger shot here than with the Academy. Taylor is arguably the soft Oscar frontrunner and this show could kick off a sweep. Yet I’m going with veteran Madigan for her Halloween costume inspiring work in Weapons.
Winner: Amy Madigan, Weapons
Runner-Up: Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another
Best Supporting Actor
Nominees: Benicio del Toro (One Battle After Another), Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein), Paul Mescal (Hamnet), Sean Penn (One Battle After Another), Adam Sandler (Jay Kelly), Stellan Skarsgård (Sentimental Value)
Another challenging selection as the voters could easily make this is a Sentimental victory for Skarsgård. It’s tempting to pick him, but I’m rolling with del Toro’s performance that inspired many a meme.
Winner: Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another
Another possibility for Value though Sinners should nab this one as it doesn’t have to go up against studio competitor Battle.
Winner: Sinners
Runner-Up: Sentimental Value
Best Adapted Screenplay
Nominees: Bugonia, Frankenstein, Hamnet, No Other Choice, One Battle After Another, Train Dreams
This is an easy call for Battle with Hamnet as the only potential spoiler.
Winner: One Battle After Another
Runner-Up: Hamnet
Best Foreign Language Film
Nominees: Belén, It Was Just an Accident, Left-Handed Girl, No Other Choice, The Secret Agent, Sirât
CCA has a rule that if a film is nominated for BP, it doesn’t get on the ballot for this race (the same rule applies to Best Comedy). That’s why you won’t find Sentimental Value here. Accident is the favorite though I’m tempted to go with an upset since this marks its sole nod (not making Director or screenplay). Choice and Agent could win. Once again I’ll play it safe.
Winner: It Was Just an Accident
Runner-Up: No Other Choice
Best Comedy
Nominees: The Ballad of Wallis Island, Eternity, Friendship, The Naked Gun, The Phoenician Scheme, Splitsville
A dark horse pick like Friendship is within the realm of possibility and Phoenician is doable. That said, The Naked Gun remake got some deserved credit for bringing the laugh-a-minute spoof genre back and it might be rewarded for that.
Winner: The Naked Gun
Runner-Up: The Phoenician Scheme
Best Animated Feature
Nominees: Arco, Elio, In Your Dreams, KPop Demon Hunters, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, Zootopia 2
I would argue that noms came out before Zootopia 2 turned into a massive box office juggernaut which gave it a better chance to win. The cultural juggernaut that is KPop probably would be my pick regardless.
Winner: KPop Demon Hunters
Runner-Up: Zootopia 2
Best Casting and Ensemble
Nominees: Hamnet, Jay Kelly, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sinners, Wicked: For Good
Another showdown between Battle and Sinners and I’m going with the same result as BP.
Winner: One Battle After Another
Runner-Up: Sinners
Best Young Actor/Actress
Nominees: Everett Blunck (The Plague), Miles Caton (Sinners), Cary Christopher (Weapons), Shannon Mahina Gorman (Rental Family), Jacobi Jupe (Hamnet), Nina Ye (Left-Handed Girl)
Caton’s work in Sinners should emerge though Jupe could threaten.
Winner: Miles Caton, Sinners
Runner-Up: Jacobi Jupe, Hamnet
Best Cinematography
Nominees: F1, Frankenstein, Hamnet, One Battle After Another, Sinners, Train Dreams
Sinners with Battle right behind.
Winner: Sinners
Runner-Up: One Battle After Another
Best Costume Design
Nominees: Frankenstein, Hamnet, Hedda, Kiss of the Spider Woman, Sinners, Wicked: For Good
The CCA throwing a bone to Wicked is a possibility. The safer pick is Frankenstein.
Winner: Frankenstein
Runner-Up: Wicked: For Good
Best Editing
Nominees: F1, A House of Dynamite, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, The Perfect Neighbor, Sinners
The biggest story here was the surprise inclusion of documentary The Perfect Neighbor. It won’t take the prize that should be reserved for Battle with F1 or Sinners as remote chance spoilers.
Winner: One Battle After Another
Runner-Up: F1
Best Hair and Makeup
Nominees: 28 Years Later, Frankenstein, Sinners, The Smashing Machine, Weapons, Wicked: For Good
This is the easiest race to pick Frankenstein in.
Winner: Frankenstein
Runner-Up: Wicked: For Good
Best Production Design
Nominees: The Fantastic Four: First Steps, Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, Sinners, Wicked: For Good
If Sinners exceeds expectations, it could take this. So could Wicked under the bone throwing scenario I posited in Costume Design. Again – bet on Frankenstein.
Winner: Frankenstein
Runner-Up: Wicked: For Good
Best Score
Nominees: F1, Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sinners
This one represents another battle between Battle and Sinners though the latter should triumph here.
Winner: Sinners
Runner-Up: One Battle After Another
Best Song
Nominees: “Clothed by the Sun” from The Testament of Ann Lee; “Drive” from F1; “The Girl in the Bubble” from Wicked: For Good; “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters; “I Lied to You” from Sinners; “Train Dreams” from Train Dreams
The Sinners track is viable but the omnipresent “Golden” is likelier.
Winner: “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters
Runner-Up: “I Lied to You” from Sinners
Best Stunt Design
Nominees: Ballerina, F1, Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning, One Battle After Another, Sinners, Warfare
This would appear to be a pretty obvious occasion to honor Mr. Cruise and his team.
Winner: Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning
Runner-Up: F1
Best Sound
Nominees: F1, Frankenstein, One Battle After Another, Sinners, Sirât, Warfare
I’m going with a slight upset. F1 is likely the smart play, but I’m saying CCA will give another race to Sinners.
Winner: Sinners
Runner-Up: F1
Best Visual Effects
Nominees: Avatar: Fire and Ash, F1, Frankenstein, Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning, Sinners, Superman
This is Avatar‘s sole nom. It still shouldn’t have any problem winning.
Winner: Avatar: Fire and Ash
Runner-Up: Frankenstein
That means I’m projecting that these movies will generate these numbers of wins:
6 Wins
One Battle After Another
5 Wins
Sinners
3 Wins
Frankenstein
2 Wins
KPop Demon Hunters
1 Win
Avatar: Fire and Ash, Hamnet, It Was Just an Accident, Marty Supreme, Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning, The Naked Gun, Weapons
Look for a recap of the ceremony with my thoughts and results on how I performed!
We have no major wide releases to start off the year as holiday holdovers will rule the charts. That should start with Avatar: Fire and Ash for a third consecutive weekend in 1st position. The jockeying for chart placement after that could be interesting.
Seasonal leftovers often see minimal declines during the Christmas corridor and there’s no reason to think that won’t be the case this time around. Some dips should be less severe than others. Anaconda, for example, received a meh B Cinemascore grade. Percentage wise, I suspect it will fall further in its sophomore outing than Marty Supreme (B+ CS) or Song Sung Blue (which received an A grade).
Adult audiences might be keeping up with Supreme and Blue as well as The Housemaid while parents and their kiddos catch up (or take in repeat viewings) of Zootopia 2, David, and SpongeBob. Here’s how I see the top 8 shaking out:
1. Avatar: Fire and Ash
Predicted Gross: $42 million
2. Zootopia 2
Predicted Gross: $15.3 million
3. Marty Supreme
Predicted Gross: $14.2 million
4. The Housemaid
Predicted Gross: $12.5 million
5. Anaconda
Predicted Gross: $8 million
6. The SpongeBob Movie: Search for SquarePants
Predicted Gross: $7.7 million
7. David
Predicted Gross: $6.5 million
8. Song Sung Blue
Predicted Gross: $6 million
Box Office Results (December 26-28)
Avatar: Fire and Ash scorched the Yuletide box office with a mere 29% decline for $63 million in its sophomore weekend. That just tops my $61.8 million prediction as James Cameron’s third franchise entry climbed to $216 million.
Where I went wrong in my Christmas projections was with animated features. I didn’t give Zootopia 2 enough credit in its fifth go-round as it was second and increased its family audience by 34% to $19.8 million compared to my $13.8 million call. The Disney juggernaut’s haul is $321 million.
Of the three holiday newcomers, I was correct in projecting that Marty Supreme would earn the most in third. Timothée Chalamet had his third holiday hit in a row as the period sports drama made $17.7 million over the traditional Friday to Sunday frame with $27.3 million since Thursday. That’s right in line with my respective estimates of $18.2 million and $27.6 million. It looks like a bright road ahead for the Oscar hopeful.
The Housemaid held sturdy in weekend #2 with $15.3 million. I went with a tad more at $17.3 million as the thriller is up to $46 million.
Meta comedy Anaconda with Paul Rudd and Jack Black rounded out the top five with $14.5 million and $23.5 million when counting Christmas Day. I was close with predictions of $14.2 million and $20.5 million. As mentioned above, its future is a bit murkier.
Continuing the theme of animated misses on my part, Biblical tale David dropped more than I figured with $12.5 million in sixth. I said $19.5 million though the Angel Studios release is doing just fine with $49 million in two weeks.
The SpongeBob Movie: Search for SquarePants was seventh with $11.1 million, shy of my $14.6 million forecast. The two-week tally is $38 million.
Finally, Song Sung Blue with Hugh Jackman and Kate Hudson opened in eighth with $7 million with $11.4 million including Thursday grosses. That’s below my $9.6 million and $13.7 million predictions as it hopes word-of-mouth keeps it afloat for a few weeks.
Dolores Fonzi directs, cowrites, and stars in the true life Argentinian legal drama Belén which premiered in its native country earlier this fall. An Amazon Prime bow is planned stateside in the near future. The supporting cast includes Camila Pláate, Laura Paredes, Julieta Cardinali, and César Troncoso.
Selected as Argentina’s hopeful for Best International Feature Film, it is among the six contenders for Foreign Language Film at the Critics Choice Awards (a bit of a surprise nominee). It will attempt to become the nation’s fifth Oscar nominee of the 21st century behind 2001’s Son of the Bride, 2009’s The Secret in Their Eyes (which won), Wild Tales from 2014, and 2022’s Argentina, 1985.
The 94% Rotten Tomatoes rating is encouraging, but the 70 Metacritic is more telling. Belén would need to leap some serious competitors that could lock down nods beyond IFF including Sentimental Value, It Was Just an Accident, The Secret Agent, No Other Choice, and Sirât. That could be a tall order, but this category has had unexpected inclusions before. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Mistress Dispeller premiered at the Venice Film Festival all the way back in September 2024, but was released stateside in October of this year. From filmmaker Elizabeth Lo, the documentary focuses on a title character hired to break up a Chinese woman’s husband’s extramarital affair.
Among the 15 shortlisted docs in contention for the Academy Awards, Dispeller is one of the genre titles not in the politically charged space. Perhaps there’s a lane for one or two of them to make the cut. Reviews are solid with 95% on Rotten Tomatoes and 81 on Metacritic. If it gets into the quintet, it would be a surprise though the doc voters can be volatile. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Coexistence, My Ass is one of the 15 shortlisted documentaries for the 98th Academy Awards as it tries to make the quintet after premiering at Sundance nearly a year ago. From filmmaker Amber Fares, it focuses on Israeli comedian and activist Noam Shuster-Eliassi’s one-woman show.
With 92% on Rotten Tomatoes, Coexistence must coexist with numerous politically themed docs in the running and some are higher profile including 2000 Meters to Andrivka, My Undesirable Friends: Part I – Last Air in Moscow, and Apocalypse in the Tropics. The voting branch for this genre is unpredictable and any of the 15 contenders could get in. However, predicting this one in your projected five would be an upset selection. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
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