Tag: Javier Bardem

99th Academy Awards Predictions: August 2nd Edition

As we enter the month of August, the fall film festival trio of Venice, Telluride, and Toronto are about a month away. Those fests will dramatically reshape the Oscar race for the 99th ceremony. In the meantime, we have Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey racking up terrific box office numbers and continuing to solidify its status as an across-the-board awards player.

There are release date questions while one significant feature has moved to the 2027 calendar. Chloe Domont’s A Place in Hell with Michelle Williams and Daisy Edgar-Jones will come out next spring and that’s why you’ll see it in the dropped out menu in various races including Picture, Actress, Supporting Actress, and Original Screenplay. Tom Ford’s Cry to Heaven has yet to be dated and appears to be skipping festivals. I’ve made the decision to take it out of contention until a release is scheduled.

On the other hand, Elsinore with Andrew Scott and Olivia Colman from Simon Stone is confirmed to come out this year and it could certainly be a possibility for its stars and elsewhere.

We have a big development in Best Picture and elsewhere. Simply put, I’m skeptical about Digger. It could absolutely get back in the mix once eyeballs are on it. However, Digger drops and The Invite rises. The Digger fall also dramatically shapes the acting races with Tom Cruise plummeting from 1st to 6th in Best Actor. Maybe this will look foolish down the line, but it’s where I’m at now.

You can read all the movement below and expect the next update in two weeks!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)

4. White Horse Nine (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Debut (PR: 6) (+1)

6. Fjord (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Dune: Part Three (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Behemoth! (PR: 9) (+1)

9. The Invite (PR: 12) (+3)

10. Obsession (PR: 10) (E)

Other Possibilities:

11. Digger (PR: 5) (-6)

12. All of a Sudden (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Ink (PR: 13) (E)

14. The Social Reckoning (PR: 16) (+2)

15. Elsinore (PR: 21) (+6)

16. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 17) (+1)

17. Michael (PR: 20) (+3)

18. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 19) (+1)

19. Fatherland (PR: 18) (-1)

20. Werwulf (PR: Not Ranked)

21. Being Heumann (PR: 23) (+2)

22. Disclosure Day (PR: 24) (+2)

23. Josephine (PR: 25) (+2)

24. Artificial (PR: 22) (-2)

25. I Play Rocky (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

A Place in Hell

Cry to Heaven

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo, The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Cristian Mungiu, Fjord (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Olivia Wilde, The Invite (PR: 12) (+5)

8. Alejandro Gonzalez Iñárritu, Digger (PR: 4) (-4)

9. Tony Gilroy, Behemoth! (PR: 9) (E)

10. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden (PR: 10) (E)

11. Jesse Eisenberg, The Debut (PR: 11) (E)

12. Curry Barker, Obsession (PR: 9) (-3)

13. Danny Boyle, Ink (PR: 13) (E)

14. Pawel Pawlikowski, Fatherland (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Georgia Oakley, Sense and Sensibility (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Tom Ford, Cry to Heaven

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Julianne Moore, The Debut (PR: 1) (E)

2. Renate Reinsve, Fjord (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Inde Navarrette, Obsession (PR: 3) (E)

4. Olivia Wilde, The Invite (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Sandra Hüller, Rose (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Emily Blunt, Disclosure Day (PR: 11) (+2)

10. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann (PR: 12) (+2)

11. Sandra Hüller, Fatherland (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Léa Seydoux, Gentle Monster (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Sophie Okonedo, Clarissa (PR: 14) (E)

15. Rosalind Eleazar, Misty Green (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Michelle Williams, A Place in Hell

Mason Reeves, Josephine

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (+2)

2. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)

3. Matt Damon, The Odyssey (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Pedro Pascal, Behemoth! (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Andrew Scott, Elsinore (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Tom Cruise, Digger (PR: 1) (-5)

7. Sebastian Stan, Fjord (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Jaafar Jackson, Michael (PR: 8) (E)

9. Robert Pattinson, Primetime (PR: 9) (E)

10. Seth Rogen, The Invite (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Three (PR: 13) (+2)

12. John Turturro, The Only Living Pickpocket in New York (PR: 10) (-2)

13. Jack O’Connell, Ink (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Andrew Garfield, Artificial (PR: 11) (-3)

15. Javier Bardem, The Beloved (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Dominic Sessa, Tony

Nicholas Hoult, Cry to Heaven

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Mariana Di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Penélope Cruz, The Invite (PR: 6) (+3)

4. Lola Dueñas, The Black Ball (PR: 10) (+6)

5. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Penélope Cruz, The Black Ball (PR: 3) (-3)

7. Olivia Colman, Elsinore (PR: 12) (+5)

8. Tao Okamoto, All of a Sudden (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Samantha Morton, The Odyssey (PR: 14) (+4)

11. Sandra Hüller, Digger (PR: 4) (-7)

12. Esmé Creed-Miles, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 15) (+3)

13. Eva Victor, Behemoth! (PR: 11) (-2)

14. Claire Foy, Ink (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Scarlett Johansson, Paper Tiger (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Daisy Edgar-Jones, A Place in Hell

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Paul Giamatti, The Debut (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Edward Norton, The Invite (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Guy Pearce, Ink (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. John Leguizamo, The Odyssey (PR: 12) (+6)

7. Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning (PR: 7) (E)

8. John Goodman, Digger (PR: 2) (-6)

9. Robert Pattinson, The Odyssey (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Colman Domingo, Michael (PR: 8) (-2)

11. Guitarricadelafuente, The Black Ball (PR: 11) (E)

12. Mark Ruffalo, Being Heumann (PR: 14) (+2)

13. James Ortiz, Project Hail Mary (PR: 13) (E)

14. Riz Ahmed, Digger (PR: 9) (-5)

15. Channing Tatum, Josephine (PR: 15) (E)

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Debut (PR: 2) (E)

3. Fjord (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Obsession (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Behemoth! (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Digger (PR: 2) (-3)

7. Elsinore (PR: 11) (+4)

8. Club Kid (PR: 8) (E)

9. Artificial (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Primetime (PR: 9) (-1)

11. The Drama (PR: 13) (+2)

12. Fatherland (PR: 12) (E)

13 . I Play Rocky (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Josephine (PR: 14) (E)

15. Misty Green (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

A Place in Hell

The Only Living Pickpocket in New York

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Black Ball (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Invite (PR: 4) (+2)

3. The Odyssey (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (-1)

5. All of a Sudden (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Ink (PR: 6) (E)

7. Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (E)

8. The Social Reckoning (PR: 8) (E)

9. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 9) (E)

10. Being Heumann (PR: 12) (+2)

11. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 11) (E)

12. Prima Facie (PR: 14) (+2)

13. A Long Winter (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Minotaur (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Wildwood (PR: 13) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Cry to Heaven

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Black Ball (PR: 1) (E)

2. Fjord (PR: 2) (E)

3. All of a Sudden (PE: 3) (E)

4. Minotaur (PR: 4) (E)

5. Possible Love (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Fatherland (PR: 6) (E)

7. Coward (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Rose (PR: 7) (-1)

9. The Beloved (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Mimesis (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wildwood (PR: 1) (E)

2. Toy Story 5 (PR: 2) (E)

3. Ray Gunn (PR: 3) (E)

4. Forgotten Island (PR: 4) (E)

5. Tangles (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Hoppers (PR: 6) (E)

7. In Waves (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Shaun the Sheep: The Beast of Mossy Bottom (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Iron Boy (PR: 9) (E)

10. Hexed (PR: 10) (E)

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Once Upon a Time in Harlem (PR: 1) (E)

2. 14th (PR: 2) (E)

3. One in a Million (PR: 3) (E)

4. To Hold a Mountain (PR: 5) (+1)

5. American Doctor (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Nuisance Bear (PR: 6) (E)

7. Closure (PR: Not Ranked)

8. The History of Concrete (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Everybody to Kenmure Street (PR: Not Ranked)

10. When a Witness Recants (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Rehearsals for a Revolution

Time and Water

Best Casting

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Fjord (PR: 4) (E)

5. Michael (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Invite (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Dune: Part Three (PR: 10) (+3)

8. The Debut (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Digger (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Being Heumann (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Obsession

Best Cinemtography

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Black Ball (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Digger (PR: 4) (E)

5. Fatherland (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (-3)

7. Werwulf (PR: 7) (E)

8. Ink (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 9) (E)

10. Behemoth! (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Cry to Heaven

Disclosure Day

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 3) (E)

4. Werwulf (PR: 4) (E)

5. Michael (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (E)

7. I Love Boosters (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Wuthering Heights (PR: 8) (E)

9. The Devil Wears Prada 2 (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Mother Mary (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Cry to Heaven

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)

4. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Behemoth! (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Digger (PR: 4) (-3)

8. The Invite (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Fjord (PR: 8) (-1)

10. The Debut (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Digger (PR: 1) (E)

2. Werwulf (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Odyssey (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Clayface (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Wicker (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Michael (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Rose (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Is God Is (PR: 10) (-1)

10. The Bride! (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

The Black Ball

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Black Ball (PR: 3) (E)

4. Behemoth! (PR: 4) (E)

5. Disclosure Day (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (E)

7. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 7) (E)

8. Digger (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Ink (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Social Reckoning (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Werwulf

Wildwood

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “I Knew It, I Knew You” from Toy Story 5 (PR: 1) (E)

2. TBD from The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. “La Playa” from The Black Ball (PR: 4) (+1)

4. TBD from The Debut (PR: 3) (-1)

5. “How to Write a Song (Without You)” from Power Ballad (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. “When I’m Home” from The Odyssey (PR: Not Ranked)

7. “Runway” from The Devil Wears Prada 2 (PR: 6) (-1)

8. “Shape of a Woman” from The Devil Wears Prada 2 (PR: Not Ranked)

9. “Chains of Love” from Wuthering Heights (PR: 9) (E)

10. “Save the Day” from Hoppers (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

TBD from The Odyssey

TBD from Wildwood

TBD from The Rivals of Amziah King

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 2) (E)

3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)

4. Werwulf (PR: 5) (+1)

5. The Black Ball (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Digger (PR: 6) (E)

7. Backrooms (PR: 7) (E)

8. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 8) (E)

9. Wuthering Heights (PR: 10) (+1)

10. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Cry to Heaven

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Three (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Odyssey (PR: 2) (E)

3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)

4. Behemoth! (PR: 8) (+4)

5. Michael (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Black Ball (PR: 6) (E)

7. Whalefall (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Disclosure Day (PR: 4) (-4)

9. Digger (PR: 9) (E)

10. Werwulf (PR: 10) (E)

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Three (PR: 1) (E)

2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Odyssey (PR: 3) (E)

4. Godzilla Minus Zero (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Whalefall (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Avengers: Doomsday (PR: 6) (E)

7. The End of Oak Street (PR: 8) (+1)

8. The Sheep Detectives (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Spider-Man: Brand New Day (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Disclosure Day (PR: 7) (-3)

Dropped Out:

The Mandalorian and Grogu

That equates to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:

14 Nominations

The Odyssey

13 Nominations

The Black Ball

10 Nominations

Project Hail Mary

9 Nominations

Wild Horse Nine

6 Nominations

Behemoth!, Fjord

5 Nominations

Dune: Part Three, The Invite

3 Nominations

Michael, Obsession, Werwulf

2 Nominations

All of a Sudden, Digger, Toy Story 5

1 Nomination

14th, American Doctor, Clayface, Disclosure Day, Elsinore, Fatherland, Forgotten Island, Godzilla Minus Zero, Ink, Minotaur, Once Upon a Time in Harlem, One in a Million, Possible Love, Power Ballad, Ray Gunn, Rose, Sense and Sensibility, Tangles, To Hold a Mountain, Whalefall, Wicker, Wildwood

99th Academy Awards Predictions: July 19th Edition

Moviegoers continue to get new looks at potential Oscar contenders in the last couple of weeks since my last predictions. We got our first extended glimpse for Alejandro Gonzalez Iñárritu’s Digger and it has sparked plenty of social media chatter for what appears to be a big swing for the filmmaker and Tom Cruise. I could see this going either way. For now I’m keeping it above the line in several of my forecasts.

This is the weekend where Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey is dominating the box office with the review embargo having lifted four days ago. The results are impressive with 95% on Rotten Tomatoes and an 89 Metacritic. It is a threat not only to be nominated in Best Picture and Director (which appears automatic) but to win. As I wrote about in my detailed prediction post, the acting races shifted a bit in my calculations. The “in or out” debate regarding Matt Damon continues. However, Anne Hathaway seems to have solidified a spot in Supporting Actress. Her costar Samantha Morton’s inclusion is less likely unless Universal mounts a spirited campaign. As for the Supporting Actors, Robert Pattinson/Tom Holland/John Leguizamo could materialize. Yet I wouldn’t be surprised if no consensus emerges among them and they all miss the cut.

Fall festivals are beginning to announce their lineups. The opener at Venice was revealed to be Danny Boyle’s Ink starring Jack O’Connell, Guy Pearce (as media titan Rupert Murdoch), and Claire Foy. This was a surprise considering the release date was expected to be 2027. It was also announced that Netflix will carry U.S. distribution rights. Now it’s a question mark whether the streamer will choose a limited theatrical engagement in 2026 followed by the small screen output. The high profile Venice slot has me leaning toward a premiere before the calendar year closes. It joins my lineup just on the outside looking in with Pearce projected in Supporting Actor.

Speaking of release date uncertainty, we still don’t know if Tom Ford’s Cry to Heaven (an adaptation of an Anne Rice novel) is out this year. I’m still listing it, but it drops out of my BP lineup. The beneficiary of that change is Tony Gilroy’s Behemoth! which unveiled its first trailer this week. Leading man Pedro Pascal also makes the cut for the first time over Sebastian Stan (Fjord). There’s also chatter that Joel Coen’s Jack of Spades is moving to 2027 and I’m moving it outside of my projections at press time.

The Toronto Film Festival’s lineup is beginning trickle out with Sian Heder’s Being Heumann serving as the opener and Prima Facie with Cynthia Erivo tagged as a gala presentation. Paper Tiger from James Gray, which played at Cannes to a mostly positive though not overwhelming reception, will be first out of the gate at the New York Film Festival.

You can read all the movement from the last two weeks below and expect a fresh update in a couple of weeks!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (E)

5. Digger (PR: 3) (-2)

6. The Debut (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Fjord (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Dune: Part Three (PR: 8) (E)

9. Behemoth! (PR: 12) (+3)

10. Obsession (PR: 9) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

11. All of a Sudden (PR: 11) (E)

12. The Invite (PR: 17) (+5)

13. Ink (PR: Not Ranked)

14. A Place in Hell (PR: 14) (E)

15. Cry to Heaven (PR: 10) (-5)

16. The Social Reckoning (PR: 13) (-3)

17. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 15) (-2)

18. Fatherland (PR: 16) (-2)

19. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 19) (E)

20. Michael (PR: 21) (+1)

21. Elsinore (PR: Not Ranked)

22. Artificial (PR: 18) (-4)

23. Being Heumann (PR: 23) (E)

24. Disclosure Day (PR: 20) (-4)

25. Josephine (PR: 22) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Jack of Spades

Werwulf

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Javier Ambrossi and Javie Calvo, The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Alejandro Gonzalez Iñárritu, Digger (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Cristian Mungiu, Fjord (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 6) (E)

7. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Tony Gilroy, Behemoth! (PR: 13) (+5)

9. Curry Barker, Obsession (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden (PR: 10) (E)

11. Jesse Eisenberg, The Debut (PR: 11) (E)

12. Olivia Wilde, The Invite (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Danny Boyle, Ink (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Tom Ford, Cry to Heaven (PR: 9) (-5)

15. Pawel Pawlikowski, Fatherland (PR: 12) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Chloe Domont, A Place in Hell

Georgia Oakley, Sense and Sensibility

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Julianne Moore, The Debut (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Michelle Williams, A Place in Hell (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Inde Navarrette, Obsession (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Renate Reinsve, Fjord (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Sandra Hüller, Rose (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning (PR: 6) (E)

7. Olivia Wilde, The Invite (PR: 15) (+8)

8. Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie (PR: 9) (E)

10. Sandra Hüller, Fatherland (PR: 10) (E)

11. Emily Blunt, Disclosure Day (PR: 8) (-3)

12. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann (PR: 12) (E)

13. Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 11) (-2)

14. Sophie Okonedo, Clarissa (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Mason Reeves, Josephine (PR: 14) (-1)

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Tom Cruise, Digger (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)

3. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Matt Damon, The Odyssey (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Pedro Pascal, Behemoth! (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sebastian Stan, Fjord (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Andrew Scott, Elsinore (PR: 12) (+5)

8. Jaafar Jackson, Michael (PR: 8) (E)

9. Robert Pattinson, Primetime (PR: 10) (+1)

10. John Turturro, The Only Living Pickpocket in New York (PR: 7) (-3)

11. Andrew Garfield, Artificial (PR: 9) (-2)

12. Jack O’Connell, Ink (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Three (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Dominic Sessa, Tony (PR: 14) (E)

15. Nicholas Hoult, Cry to Heaven (PR: 11) (-4)

Dropped Out:

Rami Malek, The Man I Love

Javier Bardem, The Beloved

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mariana di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (E)

2. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey (PR: 7) (+5)

3. Penélope Cruz, The Black Ball (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Sandra Hüller, Digger (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Daisy Edgar-Jones, A Place in Hell (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Penélope Cruz, The Invite (PR: 6) (E)

7. Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 11) (+3)

9. Tao Okamoto, All of a Sudden (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Lola Dueñas, The Black Ball (PR: 13) (+3)

11. Eva Victor, Behemoth! (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Olivia Colman, Elsinore (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Claire Foy, Ink (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Samantha Morton, The Odyssey (PR: 10) (-4)

15. Esmé Creed-Miles, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 9) (-6)

Dropped Out:

Halle Bailey, The Debut

Scarlett Johansson, Paper Tiger

Elizabeth Debicki, The Adventures of Cliff Booth

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Paul Giamatti, The Debut (PR: 1) (E)

2. John Goodman, Digger (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Edward Norton, The Invite (PR: 8) (+4)

5. Guy Pearce, Ink (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning (PR: 7) (E)

8. Colman Domingo, Michael (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Riz Ahmed, Digger (PR: 6) (-3)

10. Robert Pattinson, The Odyssey (PR: 4) (-6)

11. Guittarricadelafuente, The Black Ball (PR: 14) (+3)

12. John Leguizamo, The Odyssey (PR: Not Ranked)

13. James Ortiz, Project Hail Mary (PR: 10) (-3)

14. Mark Ruffalo, Being Heumann (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Channing Tatum, Josephine (PR: 11) (-4)

Dropped Out:

Andrew Scott, A Place in Hell

Jesse Plemons, Digger

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Debut (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Digger (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Fjord (PR: 4) (E)

5. Obsession (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Behemoth! (PR: 6) (E)

7. A Place in Hell (PR: 7) (E)

8. Club Kid (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Primetime (PR: 12) (+3)

10. Artificial (PR: 8) (-2)

11. Elsinore (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Fatherland (PR: 13) (+1)

13. The Drama (PR: 15) (+2)

14. Josephine (PR: 14) (E)

15. The Only Living Pickpocket Living in New York (PR: 10) (-5)

Dropped Out:

Jack of Spades

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Black Ball (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Odyssey (PR: 2) (E)

3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Invite (PR: 5) (+1)

5. All of a Sudden (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Ink (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Dune: Part Three (PR: 8) (+1)

8. The Social Reckoning (PR: 7) (-1)

9. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 9) (E)

10. Cry to Heaven (PR: 6) (-4)

11. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Being Heumann (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Wildwood (PR: 13) (E)

14. Prima Facie (PR: 12) (-2)

15. Minotaur (PR: 14) (-1)

Dropped Out:

A Long Winter

Best International Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Black Ball (PR: 1) (E)

2. Fjord (PR: 2) (E)

3. All of a Sudden (PR: 3) (E)

4. Minotaur (PR: 4) (E)

5. Coward (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Fatherland (PR: 6) (E)

7. Rose (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Possible Love (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Mimesis (PR: 8) (-1)

10. The Beloved (PR: 10) (E)

Best Animated Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wildwood (PR: 1) (E)

2. Toy Story 5 (PR: 2 (E)

3. Ray Gunn (PR: 3) (E)

4. Forgotten Island (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Tangles (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Hoppers (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Shaun the Sheep: The Beast of Mossy Bottom (PR: 8) (+1)

8. In Waves (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Iron Boy (PR: 9) (E)

10. Hexed (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Minions & Monsters

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Once Upon a Time in Harlem (PR: 1) (E)

2. 14th (PR: Not Ranked)

3. One in a Million (PR: 7) (+4)

4. American Doctor (PR: 6) (+2)

5. To Hold a Mountain (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Nuisance Bear (PR: 2) (-4)

7. The History of Concrete (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Rehearsals for a Revolution (PR: 9) (+1)

9. When a Witness Recants (PR: 5) (-4)

10. Time and Water (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Everybody to Kenmure Street

Best Casting

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Fjord (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Michael (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Debut (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Digger (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Obsession (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Being Heumann (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Dune: Part Three (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Cry to Heaven

Behemoth!

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Digger (PR: 5) (+1)

5. The Black Ball (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Fatherland (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Werwulf (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Cry to Heaven (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Wild Horse Nine (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Disclosure Day (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Jack of Spades

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 3) (E)

4. Werwulf (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Michael (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 5) (-1)

7. The Devil Wears Prada 2 (PR: 7) (E)

8. Wuthering Heights (PR: 9) (+1)

9. I Love Boosters (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Cry to Heaven (PR: 4) (-6)

Dropped Out:

Jack of Spades

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Digger (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Behemoth! (PR: 10) (+5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Fjord (PR: 8) (E)

9. The Debut (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Invite (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Cry to Heaven

Obsession

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Digger (PR: 1) (E)

2. Werwulf (PR: 2) (E)

3. Clayface (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Michael (PR: 5) (+1)

5. The Odyssey (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wicker (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (E)

8. The Black Ball (PR: 6) (-2)

9. The Bride! (PR: 9) (E)

10. Is God Is (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Cry to Heaven

Madden

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (+1)

3. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Behemoth! (PR: Not Ranked)

5. Disclosure Day (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (E)

7. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Werwulf (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Digger (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Wildwood (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Cry to Heaven

The Social Reckoning

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “I Knew It, I Knew You” from Toy Story 5 (PR: 1) (E)

2. TBD from The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. TBD from The Debut (PR: 3) (E)

4. “La Playa” from The Black Ball (PR: 4) (E)

5. “How to Write a Song (Without You)” from Power Ballad (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Runway” from The Devil Wears Prada 2 (PR: 6) (E)

7. TBD from The Odyssey (PR: Not Ranked)

8. TBD from Wildwood (PR: Not Ranked)

9. “Chains of Love” from Wuthering Heights (PR: 7) (-2)

10. TBD from The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

TBD from Hexed

“Save the Day” from Hoppers

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (-1)

4. The Black Ball (PR: 4) (E)

5. Werwulf (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Digger (PR: 6) (E)

7. Backrooms (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Sense and Sensibility (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Cry to Heaven (PR: 5) (-4)

10. Wuthering Heights (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Jack of Spades

The Adventures of Cliff Booth

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Three (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Odyssey (PR: 2) (E)

3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)

4. Disclosure Day (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Whalefall (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Black Ball (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Michael (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Behemoth! (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Digger (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Werwulf (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Cry to Heaven

Obsession

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Three (PR: 1) (E)

2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Odyssey (PR: 3) (E)

4. Whalefall (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Godzilla Minus Zero (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Avengers: Doomsday (PR: 6) (E)

7. Disclosure Day (PR: 7) (E)

8. The End of Oak Street (PR: 9) (+1)

9. The Sheep Detectives (PR: 10) (+1)

10. The Mandalorian and Grogu (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Wildwood

That works out to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:

14 Nominations

The Odyssey

13 Nominations

The Black Ball

9 Nominations

Digger, Project Hail Mary

7 Nominations

Wild Horse Nine

6 Nominations

Fjord

5 Nominations

The Debut, Dune: Part Three

4 Nominations

Behemoth!

3 Nominations

Michael, Obsession, Werwulf

2 Nominations

All of a Sudden, The Invite, A Place in Hell, Toy Story 5, Whalefall

1 Nomination

14th, American Doctor, Clayface, Coward, Forgotten Island, Godzilla Minus Zero, Ink, Minotaur, Once Upon a Time in Harlem, One in a Million, Power Ballad, Ray Gunn, Rose, Sense and Sensibility, Tangles, To Hold a Mountain, Wildwood

99th Academy Awards Predictions: July 5th Edition

Happy 250th birthday weekend, America! And what better way to celebrate than with fresh Oscar predictions now that we’ve surpassed the midway point of 2026. That means I’m expanding my forecasts from 8 categories (Picture, Director, the four acting derbies, the two screenplays contests) to all 21 races covering feature-length motion pictures.

This is the first glimpse at how many overall nominations I believe the hopefuls will generate. It arrives approximately two months before the fall festival season (Venice, Toronto, Telluride) kicks into gear. That trio of fests will undoubtedly alter the landscape of contenders and pretenders.

When I do my next predictions, Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey will be out. We will have a much better ide whether it deserves the perch atop Best Picture and Director and elsewhere. As soon as reviews drop, look for my individual Oscar Predictions post with the next full update likely arriving on July 19th.

I’ve put Inde Navarrette’s work in Obsession back in lead Actress as opposed to Supporting Actress. The studio could place it in either as we await word on their strategy. As of now, I feel her performance could materialize in both races. I’m also placing all performers from The Black Ball in supporting until that is clarified.

I’m keeping my BP listings at 25 and the seven top line races that I’ve previously covered at 15 possibilities. For the other competitions, I am listing 10 possibilities.

Let’s get to it, shall we?

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Digger (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (-2)

6. Fjord (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Debut (PR: 7) (E)

8. Dune: Part Three (PR: 8) (E)

9. Obsession (PR: 9) (E)

10. Cry to Heaven (PR: 10) (E)

Other Possibilities:

11. All of a Sudden (PR: 14) (+3)

12. Behemoth! (PR: 16) (+4)

13. The Social Reckoning (PR: 12) (-1)

14. A Place in Hell (PR: 11) (-3)

15. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 13) (-2)

16. Fatherland (PR: 15) (-1)

17. The Invite (PR: 17) (E)

18. Artificial (PR: Not Ranked)

19. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 19) (E)

20. Disclosure Day (PR: 20) (E)

21. Michael (PR: 24) (+3)

22. Josephine (PR: 21) (-1)

23. Being Heumann (PR: Not Ranked)

24. Jack of Spades (PR: 22) (-2)

25. Werwulf (PR: 18) (-7)

Dropped Out:

Saturn Return

Club Kid

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo, The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Digger (PR: 3) (E)

4. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (E)

5. Cristian Mungiu, Fjord (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 6) (E)

7. Curry Barker, Obsession (PR: 7) (E)

8. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Tom Ford, Cry to Heaven (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden (PR: 10) (E)

11. Jesse Eisenberg, The Debut (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Pawel Pawlikowski, Fatherland (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Tony Gilroy, Behemoth! (PR: 15) (+2)

14. Chloe Domont, A Place in Hell (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Georgia Oakley, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 14) (-1)

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Michelle Williams, A Place in Hell (PR: 1) (E)

2. Julianne Moore, The Debut (PR: 2) (E)

3. Renate Reinsve, Fjord (PR: 3) (E)

4. Inde Navarrette, Obsession (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from Supporting Actress

5. Sandra Hüller, Rose (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Emily Blunt, Disclosure Day (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie (PR: 9) (E)

10. Sandra Hüller, Fatherland (PR: 8) (-2)

11. Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 7) (-4)

12. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Sophie Okonedo, Clarissa (PR: 13) (E)

14. Mason Reeves, Josephine (PR: 12) (-2)

15. Olivia Wilde, The Invite (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Penélope Cruz, Bunker

Zendaya, The Drama

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Tom Cruise, Digger (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)

3. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Sebastian Stan, Fjord (PR: 4) (E)

5. Matt Damon, The Odyssey (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Pedro Pascal, Behemoth! (PR: 7) (+1)

7. John Turturro, The Only Living Pickpocket in New York (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Jaafar Jackson, Michael (PR: 8) (E)

9. Andrew Garfield, Artificial (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Robert Pattinson, Primetime (PR: 10) (E)

11. Nicholas Hoult, Cry to Heaven (PR: 9) (-2)

12. Andrew Scott, Elsinore (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Rami Malek, The Man I Love (PR: 13) (E)

14. Dominic Sessa, Tony (PR: 11) (-3)

15. Javier Bardem, The Beloved (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Guitarricadelafuente, The Black Ball – moved to Supporting Actor

Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Three

Hanns Zischler, Fatherland

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mariana Di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (E)

2. Penélope Cruz, The Black Ball (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Sandra Hüller, Digger (PR: 10) (+7)

4. Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Daisy Edgar-Jones, A Place in Hell (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Penélope Cruz, The Invite (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Tao Okamoto, All of a Sudden (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Esmé Creed-Miles, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 5) (-4)

10. Samantha Morton, The Odyssey (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 11) (E)

12. Halle Bailey, The Debut (PR: 12) (E)

13. Lola Dueñas, The Black Ball (PR: 13) (E)

14. Scarlett Johansson, Paper Tiger (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Elizabeth Debicki, The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 14) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Inde Navarrette, Obsession (moved to lead Actress)

Gemma Chan, Josephine

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Paul Giamatti, The Debut (PR: 1) (E)

2. John Goodman, Digger (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Robert Pattinson, The Odyssey (PR: 4) (E)

5. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Riz Ahmed, Digger (PR: 6) (E)

7. Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning (PR: 7) (E)

8. Edward Norton, The Invite (PR: 11) (+3)

9. Colman Domingo, Michael (PR: 13) (+4)

10. James Ortiz, Project Hail Mary (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Channing Tatum, Josephine (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Andrew Scott, A Place in Hell (PR: 8) (-4)

13. Mark Ruffalo, Being Heumann (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Guittaricadelafuente, The Black Ball (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from lead Actor

15. Jesse Plemons, Digger (PR: 10) (-5)

Dropped Out:

Milo Quifes, The Black Ball

Miguel Bernardeau, The Black Ball

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (E)

2. Digger (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Debut (PR: 3) (E)

4. Fjord (PR: 4) (E)

5. Obsession (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Behemoth! (PR: 7) (+1)

7. A Place in Hell (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Artificial (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Club Kid (PR: 8) (-1)

10. The Only Living Pickpocket in New York (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Jack of Spades (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Primetime (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Fatherland (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Josephine (PR: 11) (-3)

15. The Drama (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Saturn Return

Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Miasma

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Black Ball (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Odyssey (PR: 2) (E)

3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)

4. All of a Sudden (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Invite (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Cry to Heaven (PR: 7) (+1)

7. The Social Reckoning (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Dune: Part Three (PR: 10) (+2)

9. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 9) (E)

10. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 8) (-2)

11. Being Heumann (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Prima Facie (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Wildwood (PR: 15) (+2)

14. Minotaur (PR: 13) (-1)

15. A Long Winter (PR: 14) (-1)

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Black Ball

2. Fjord

3. All of a Sudden

4. Minotuar

5. Coward

Other Possibilities:

6. Fatherland

7. Possible Love

8. Mimesis

9. Rose

10. The Beloved

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wildwood

2. Toy Story 5

3. Ray Gunn

4. Tangles

5. Hoppers

Other Possibilities:

6. In Waves

7. Forgotten Island

8. Shaun the Sheep: The Beast of Mossy Bottom

9. Iron Boy

10. Minions & Monsters

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Once Upon a Time in Harlem

2. Nuisance Bear

3. To Hold a Mountain

4. The History of Concrete

5. When a Witness Recants

Other Possibilities:

6. American Doctor

7. One in a Million

8. Time and Water

9. Rehearsals for a Revolution

10. Everybody to Kenmure Street

Best Casting

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey

2. The Black Ball

3. Wild Horse Nine

4. Digger

5. Michael

Other Possibilities:

6. Fjord

7. The Debut

8. Dune: Part Three

9. Cry to Heaven

10. Behemoth!

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey

2. Project Hail Mary

3. Dune: Part Three

4. The Black Ball

5. Digger

Other Possibilities:

6. Cry to Heaven

7. Fatherland

8. Werwulf

9. Disclosure Day

10. Jack of Spades

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey

2. The Black Ball

3. Sense and Sensibility

4. Cry to Heaven

5. Dune: Part Three

Other Possibilities:

6. Werwulf

7. The Devil Wears Prada 2

8. Jack of Spades

9. Wuthering Heights

10. I Love Boosters

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey

2. The Black Ball

3. Digger

4. Project Hail Mary

5. Wild Horse Nine

Other Possibilities:

6. Dune: Part Three

7. Cry to Heaven

8. Fjord

9. Obsession

10. Behemoth!

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Digger

2. Werwulf

3. The Odyssey

4. Clayface

5. Michael

Other Possibilities:

6. The Black Ball

7. Dune: Part Three

8. Cry to Heaven

9. The Bride!

10. Madden

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey

2. The Black Ball

3. Project Hail Mary

4. Disclosure Day

5. Cry to Heaven

Other Possibilities:

6. Dune: Part Three

7. Digger

8. Wild Horse Nine

9. Wildwood

10. The Social Reckoning

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “I Knew It, I Knew You” from Toy Story 5

2. TBD from The Black Ball

3. TBD from The Debut

4. “La Playa” from The Black Ball

5. “How to Write a Song (Without You)” from Power Ballad

Other Possibilities:

6. “Runway” from The Devil Wears Prada 2

7. “Chains of Love” from Wuthering Heights

8. TBD from Hexed

9. “Save the Day” from Hoppers

10. TBD from The Rivals of Amziah King

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey

2. Project Hail Mary

3. Dune: Part Three

4. The Black Ball

5. Cry to Heaven

Other Possibilities:

6. Digger

7. Werwulf

8. Jack of Spades

9. The Adventures of Cliff Booth

10. Backrooms

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Three

2. The Odyssey

3. Project Hail Mary

4. The Black Ball

5. Michael

Other Possibilities:

6. Disclosure Day

7. Cry to Heaven

8. Digger

9. Werwulf

10. Obsession

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Three

2. Project Hail Mary

3. The Odyssey

4. Godzilla Minus Zero

5. Whalefall

Other Possibilities:

6. Avengers: Doomsday

7. Disclosure Day

8. Wildwood

9. The End of Oak Street

10. The Sheep Detectives

And that works out to my inaugural tally showing these movies generating these numbers of nominations:

14 Nominations

The Black Ball, The Odyssey

10 Nominations

Digger, White Horse Nine

9 Nominations

Project Hail Mary

6 Nominations

Dune: Part Three, Fjord

5 Nominations

The Debut

4 Nominations

Cry to Heaven

3 Nominations

Michael, Obsession

2 Nominations

All of a Sudden, A Place in Hell, Toy Story 5

1 Nomination

Clayface, Coward, Disclosure Day, Godzilla Minus Zero, The History of Concrete, Hoppers, The Invite, Minotaur, Nuisance Bear, Once Upon a Time in Harlem, Power Ballad, Ray Gunn, Rose, Sense and Sensibility, Tangles, To Hold a Mountain, Werwulf, Whalefall, When a Witness Recants. Wildwood

99th Academy Awards Predictions: June 14th Edition

It’s been two weeks since my last round of predictions in Best Picture, Director, and the four acting competitions. With mid-June upon us, I am now adding my first takes on the two screenplay derbies.

What’s changed in the last two weeks? In my estimation, Obsession has picked up considerable momentum with its astonishing box office performance. I am now vaulting the low-budget horror smash from #25 all the way into the BP lineup. Additionally, I am now thinking that Focus Features will slot Inde Navarrette and her buzzy performance to Supporting Actress and I’m placing her in my quintet all the way in second position.

While Obsession‘s fortunes have risen, I would say Disclosure Day from Steven Spielberg has taken a slight downturn. The sci-fi saga which debuted this weekend in line with financial expectations (though certainly not over them) will have to battle other blockbusters (Project Hail Mary, The Odyssey, Dune: Part Three) over the next several months for awards viability. It could still get in (and so could Emily Blunt in Actress). However, the non-gushing critical response and mixed audience reaction is a potential roadblock.

Trailers can be deceiving when evaluating a picture’s Oscar chances. Yet I have to admit that I found our first look at The Social Reckoning underwhelming and I dropped it from my BP lineup, putting it just on the outside looking in.

You can read all the movement below!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Black Ball (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Digger (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (-1)

6. Fjord (PR: 6) (E)

7. No One Cares (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Cry to Heaven (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Obsession (PR: 25) (+15)

Other Possibilities:

11. The Social Reckoning (PR: 9) (-2)

12. All of a Sudden (PR: 12) (E)

13. A Place in Hell (PR: 15) (+2)

14. Disclosure Day (PR: 11) (-2)

15. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 14) (-1)

16. Fatherland (PR: 13) (-3)

17. Behemoth! (PR: 19) (+2)

18. Werwulf (PR: 16) (-2)

19. Jack of Spades (PR: 18) (-1)

20. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 17) (-3)

21. Josephine (PR: 23) (+2)

22. Saturn Return (PR: 24) (+2)

23. Michael (PR: 22) (-1)

24. Being Heumann (PR: 20) (-4)

25. Club Kid (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Entertainment System is Down

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo, The Black Ball (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Digger (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Cristian Mingiu, Fjord (PR: 6) (E)

7. Tom Ford, Cry to Heaven (PR: 7) (E)

8. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three (PR: 8) (E)

9. Curry Barker, Obsession (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Pawel Pawlikowski, Fatherland (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Jesse Eisenberg, No One Cares (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Chloe Domont, A Place in Hell (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Georgia Oakley, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 14) (E)

15. Robert Eggers, Werwulf (PR: 15) (E)

Dropped Out:

Steven Spielberg, Disclosure Day

Aaron Sorkin, The Social Reckoning

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Renate Reinsve, Fjord (PR: 1) (E)

2. Julianne Moore, No One Cares (PR: 2) (E)

3. Michelle Williams, A Place in Hell (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sandra Hüller, Fatherland (PR: 6) (E)

7. Emily Blunt, Disclosure Day (PR: 7) (E)

8. Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 11) (+3)

9. Sandra Hüller, Rose (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie (PR: 8) (-2)

11. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Mason Reeves, Josephine (PR: 14) (+2)

13. Sophie Okonedo, Clarissa (PR: 13) (E)

14. Penélope Cruz, Bunker (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Léa Seydoux, Gentle Monster (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Inde Navarrette, Obsession (moved to Supporting Actress)

Rachel Brosnahan, Saturn Return

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Tom Cruise, Digger (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sebastian Stan, Fjord (PR: 3) (E)

4. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (E)

5. Matt Damon, The Odyssey (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. John Turturro, The Only Living Pickpocket in New York (PR: 13) (+7)

7. Pedro Pascal, Behemoth! (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Nicholas Hoult, Cry to Heaven (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Jaafar Jackson, Michael (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Dominic Sessa, Tony (PR: 8) (-2)

11. Robert Pattinson, Primetime (PR: 11) (E)

12. Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Three (PR: 12) (E)

13. Hanns Zischler, Fatherland (PR: 14) (+1)

14. Rami Malek, The Man I Love (PR: 10 (-4)

15. Jordan Firstman, Club Kid (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Javier Bardem, The Beloved

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mariana Di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (E)

2. Inde Navarrette, Obsession (PR: Not Ranked – moved from lead Actress)

3. Sandra Hüller, Digger (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Penélope Cruz, The Black Ball (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Tao Okamoto, All of a Sudden (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey (PR: 3) (-3)

7. Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Daisy Edgar-Jones, A Place in Hell (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Esmé Creed-Miles, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 10) (E)

11. Penélope Cruz, The Invite (PR: 13) (+2)

12. Halle Bailey, No One Cares (PR: 9) (-3)

13. Scarlet Johansson, Paper Tiger (PR: 15) (+2)

14. Elizabeth Debicki, The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 11) (-3)

15. Lesley Manville, Jack of Spades (PR: 14) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Adele, Cry to Heaven

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Paul Giamatti, No One Cares (PR: 1) (E)

2. John Goodman, Digger (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Robert Pattinson, The Odyssey (PR: 4) (E)

5. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning (PR: 6) (E)

7. Jesse Plemons, Digger (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Colman Domingo, Michael (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Andrew Scott, A Place in Hell (PR: 13) (+4)

10. Riz Ahmed, Digger (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Channing Tatum, Josephine (PR: 12) (+1)

12. James Ortiz, Project Hail Mary (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Tom Holland, The Odyssey (PR: 10) (-3)

14. Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Cry to Heaven (PR: 7) (-7)

15. Owen Cooper, Cry to Heaven (PR: 11) (-4)

Dropped Out:

Mark Ruffalo, Being Heumann

Antonio Banderas, Tony

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wild Horse Nine

2. Digger

3. Fjord

4. No One Cares

5. A Place in Hell

Other Possibilities:

6. Obsession

7. Behemoth!

8. Club Kid

9. Fatherland

10. Jack of Spades

11. Primetime

12. Josephine

13. The Drama

14. Disclosure Day

15. Saturn Return

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Black Ball

2. The Odyssey

3. Project Hail Mary

4. All of a Sudden

5. Cry to Heaven

Other Possibilties:

6. The Social Reckoning

7. Dune: Part Three

8. Sense and Sensibility

9. The Invite

10. The Adventures of Cliff Booth

11. Prima Facie

12. Being Heumann

13. A Long Winter

14. Tony

15. Minotaur

99th Academy Awards Predictions: May 30th Edition

It’s been over three weeks since I’ve updated my Oscar predictions in the six major categories of Picture, Director, and the four acting races. A little thing called the Cannes Film Festival happened in between. In the past few cycles, you can usually count on 2-3 films screened in the French Riviera to eventually make the Best Picture cut at the Academy Awards.

Some features like Na Hong-jin’s Hope and James Gray’s Paper Tiger saw their fortunes take a hit. I would say there are four titles that standing the best chance at finding themselves in the Oscar mix: Cristian Mingiu’s Fjord (which won the Palme d’Or), Ryusuke Hamaguchi’s All of a Sudden, Fatherland from Pawel Pawlkowski, and especially The Black Ball from Javier Calvo and Javier Ambrossi. You can read my detailed prediction posts on the those Cannes titles and more on the blog from the past few days. There’s others that could gain momentum including Minotaur, Coward, and Club Kid.

Steven Spielberg’s Disclosure Day didn’t screen at Cannes, but is readying release on June 12th. Influencers who’ve seen it are highly positive. That said, it is a wise practice to wait until the real review embargo lapses to get a clear picture of its awards viability. For now, I have the movie, Spielberg, and Emily Blunt just on the outside looking in.

The horror flick Obsession drew rave critical reactions and fantastic box office numbers that are continuing to grow. This has truly opened the door for Inde Navarrette to snag an acting nod and, in a best case scenario, BP inclusion (still seems like a long shot but you never know). It’s a legit question as to whether Navarrette competes in lead Actress or Supporting Actress. For now, I’m slotting her as a possibility (though not yet a nominee) in the former. Focus Features will clear it up as some point though it might be a while.

You can read all the movement below and I’ll have the next update available in mid-June!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)

3. Digger (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (-1)

5. The Black Ball (PR: Not Ranked)

6. Fjord (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Dune: Part Three (PR: 8) (+1)

8. No One Cares (PR: 6) (-2)

9. The Social Reckoning (PR: 9) (E)

10. Cry to Heaven (PR: 12) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

11. Disclosure Day (PR: Not Ranked)

12. All of a Sudden (PR: 10) (-2)

13. Fatherland (PR: 7) (-6)

14. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 17) (+2)

15. A Place in Hell (PR: 13) (-2)

16. Werwulf (PR: 15) (-1)

17. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 25) (+8)

18. Jack of Spades (PR: 20) (+2)

19. Behemoth! (PR: 23) (+4)

20. Being Heumann (PR: 21) (+1)

21. The Entertainment System is Down (PR: 19) (-2)

22. Michael (PR: 24) (+2)

23. Josephine (PR: 17) (-6)

24. Saturn Return (PR: 18) (-6)

25. Obsession (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Hope

Paper Tiger

A Long Winter

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Digger (PR: 2) (E)

3. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Javier Calva and Javier Ambrossi, The Black Ball (PR: Not Ranked)

5. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Cristian Mingiu, Fjord (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Tom Ford, Cry to Heaven (PR: 11) (+4)

8. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three (PR: 8) (E)

9. Pawel Pawlikowski, Fatherland (PR: 6) (-3)

10. Steven Spielberg, Disclosure Day (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden (PR: 7) (-4)

12. Jesse Eisenberg, No One Cares (PR: 9) (-3)

13. Aaron Sorkin, The Social Reckoning (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Georgia Oakley, Sense and Sensibility (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Robert Eggers, Werwulf (PR: 13) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Na Hong-jin, Hope

James Gray, Paper Tiger

Greg Kwedar, Saturn Return

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Renate Reinsve, Fjord (PR: 1) (E)

2. Julianne Moore, No One Cares (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Michelle Williams, A Place in Hell (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sandra Hüller, Fatherland (PR: 2) (-4)

7. Emily Blunt, Disclosure Day (PR: Not Raked)

8. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Inde Navarrette, Obsession (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Sandra Hüller, Rose (PR: 8) (-2)

11. Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann (PR: 9) (-3)

13. Sophie Okonedo, Clarissa (PR: 10) (-3)

14. Mason Reeves, Josephine (PR: 11) (-3)

15. Rachel Brosnahan, Saturn Return (PR: 13) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Penélope Cruz, Bunker

Lily Gladstone, The Memory Police

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Tom Cruise, Digger (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sebastian Stan, Fjord (PR: 3) (E)

4. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (E)

5. Matt Damon, The Odyssey (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Nicholas Hoult, Cry to Heaven (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Jaafar Jackson, Michael (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Dominic Sessa, Tony (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Pedro Pascal, Behemoth! (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Rami Malek, The Man I Love (PR: 14) (+4)

11. Robert Pattinson, Primetime (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Three (PR: 15) (+3)

13. John Turturro, The Only Living Pickpocket in New York City (PR: 10) (-3)

14. Hanns Zischler, Fatherland (PR: 5) (-9)

15. Javier Bardem, The Beloved (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Jeremy Allen White, The Social Reckoning

Adam Driver, Paper Tiger

Josh O’Connor, Jack of Spades

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mariana Di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sandra Hüller, Digger (PR: 2) (E)

3. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey (PR: 7) (+4)

4. Tao Okamoto, All of a Sudden (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Penélope Cruz, The Black Ball (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (-3)

7. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Daisy Edgar-Jones, A Place in Hell (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Halle Bailey, No One Cares (PR: 4) (-5)

10. Esmé Creed-Miles, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Elizabeth Debicki, The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Adele, Cry to Heaven (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Penélope Cruz, The Invite (PR: 14) (+1)

14. Lesley Manville, Jack of Spades (PR: 10) (-4)

15. Scarlett Johansson, Paper Tiger (PR: 9) (-6)

Dropped Out:

Kirsten Dunst, The Entertainment System is Down

Caitriona Balfe, A Long Winter

Gemma Chan, Josephine

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Paul Giamatti, No One Cares (PR: 1) (E)

2. John Goodman, Digger (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Robert Pattinson, The Odyssey (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning (PR: 6) (E)

7. Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Cry to Heaven (PR: 15) (+8)

8. Jesse Plemons, Digger (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Colman Domingo, Michael (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Tom Holland, The Odyssey (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Owen Cooper, Cry to Heaven (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Channing Tatum, Josephine (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Andrew Scott, A Place in Hell (PR: 8) (-5)

14. Mark Ruffalo. Being Heumann (PR: 12) (-2)

15. Antonio Banderas, Tony (PR: 14) (-1)

Dropped Out:

David Oyelowo, Clarissa

Oscar Predictions: In the Hand of Dante

Julian Schnabel has Oscar history with Before Night Falls from 2000 (in which Javier Bardem was up for lead Actor), 2007’s The Diving Bell and the Butterfly (four noms including Director), and At Eternity’s Gate (Willem Dafoe contending for Actor). His latest is the period piece drama In the Hand of Dante, sporting an eclectic cast headlined by Oscar Isaac and including Gal Gadot, Gerard Butler, John Malkovich, Jason Momoa, Louis Cancelmi, Sophia Impacciatore, Franco Nero, and Al Pacino.

Stateside release is undetermined at press time. Despite the star power, distributors might not be lining up since this was generally considered one of the misfires at the Venice Film Festival. While some critics tipped their cap to its ambition, most say it wasn’t brimming with overall quality. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 35% and that should ensure Dante doesn’t fire up awards voters. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

F1 Box Office Prediction

F1 (or F1: The Movie) hopes to be #1 when it debuts June 27th. The racing drama comes from Top Gun: Maverick maker Joseph Kosinski with Brad Pitt in the lead. Damson Idris, Kerry Condon, Tobias Menzies, and Javier Bardem provide support.

There are some reports that the budget is around $300 million so profitability is a question mark. Its title sport is more popular overseas so Warner Bros is certainly banking on impressive foreign grosses. Reviews are mostly complimentary with 87% on Rotten Tomatoes and Metacritic at 70.

I believe the star power and solid word-of-mouth should be enough to power F1 to the top spot. $50 million plus would be a welcome sight for its studio considering the price tag. I’ll project it doesn’t quite get there.

F1 opening weekend prediction: $46.2 million

For my M3GAN 2.0 prediction, click here:

M3GAN 2.0 Box Office Prediction

Oscar Predictions: F1

F1 (also styled as F1: The Movie) blasts into IMAX screens and other venues on June 27th, marking Joseph Kosinski’s theatrical follow-up to Top Gun: Maverick. The exploration of the Formula One World Championship is headlined by Brad Pitt with costars including Damson Idris, Kerry Condon, Tobias Menzies, and Javier Bardem.

Critics are mostly championing this an effective summer blockbuster with 84% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 67 Metacritic. There are some gripes about the screenplay and even quibbles with how the racing sequences are choreographed.

While Maverick was nominated in six categories at the 95th Academy Awards including Best Picture, F1‘s possibilities are more limited. Sound seems the most feasible with Cinematography, Editing, and Hans Zimmer’s Score having shots. BP is likely out of reach and same goes for the cast despite praise for Pitt and the relatively unknown (though not for long) Idris. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

97th Academy Awards: The FINAL State of the Best Supporting Actor Race

My final predictions for nominees at the 97th Academy Awards arrives this Wednesday, January 15th prior to the announcement on Sunday, January 19th. Before I make them, I’m taking a deeper dive into the six major categories (Picture, Director, the four acting derbies) with detailed thoughts on where I think each race stands.

The second post in this series is Best Supporting Actor. If you missed my write-up for Best Actress, you can access it here:

97th Academy Awards: The FINAL State of the Best Actress Race

Unlike some of the other categories… Best Picture for example… I do believe there’s a legit frontrunner in Supporting Actor and that’s Kieran Culkin for A Real Pain. He has received a quartet of significant Oscar precursor nominations thus far: the Golden Globe, the BAFTA long list, SAG, and Critics Choice. That’s in addition to a slew of critics group prizes. Most significantly, he won the Golden Globe last week. The only potential drawback to a victory is that A Real Pain is a question mark for Best Picture inclusion. Since the Academy’s BP nominees expanded to more than five (and now a set 10) starting in 2009, 14 of the 15 Supporting Actor recipients came from films nominated in the biggest race. The only exception is 2011 with Christopher Plummer from Beginners. If A Real Pain gets into the BP derby, it’ll be much simpler to project Culkin as the victor. If not, that makes him more of a soft leader in the contest.

There are two other performers with the aforementioned precursors to their credit – Yura Borisov in Anora and Edward Norton in A Complete Unknown. At this juncture, it would be bold to leave either of them off the ballot. Both come from surefire BP hopefuls.

So does Guy Pearce of The Brutalist. The veteran actor seeks his first nomination. I’ve had him consistently ranked 2nd behind Culkin for weeks. His SAG omission was a surprise, but he still looks relatively safe for inclusion.

That leaves us with one spot left to fill. Before we consider that, let’s remember a time when these gentlemen had shots for the 97th Academy Awards. In some cases, the movies didn’t turn out to be Oscar contenders or their roles weren’t substantial enough to make the cut. I speak of Tom Hardy or Michael Shannon from The Bikeriders, Benedict Cumberbatch in The Book of Clarence, Brendan Gleeson in Joker: Folie à Deux, and Giancarlo Esposito from Megalopolis.

There’s a next level up of performances. It might not be totally impossible for them to get in, but there’s been no evidence precursor wise to realistically believe they’re a threat. This list includes Josh O’Connor from Challengers, Peter Sarsgaard and John Magaro from September 5 and Bill Skarsgård and Willem Dafoe in Nosferatu, and Drew Starkey in Queer. Same goes for Brian Tyree Henry (The Fire Inside), Adam Pearson (A Different Man), and Samuel L. Jackson (The Piano Lesson). Chris Hemsworth drew raves for Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, but he hasn’t shown up anywhere. Same story for Dune: Part Two supporting players Javier Bardem and Austin Butler. And John Lithgow (Conclave) and Mark Eydelshteyn (Anora) are likely to cede the spotlight to their costars.

With one spot remaining, I have five contenders worthy of chatter: Jonathan Bailey (Wicked), Clarence Maclin (Sing Sing), Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice), Stanley Tucci (Conclave), and Denzel Washington (Gladiator II). Let’s walk through them one by one, shall we?

Speaking of costars, it sure seemed like Wicked‘s Jonathan Bailey would be on the outside looking in while his popular cast mates Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande would get noms. Yet his unexpected SAG inclusion this week puts him in the mix. Nevertheless I have him 5th out of these 5 possibilities.

Clarence Maclin took his real life experience behind bars and became a critical darling playing himself in Sing Sing. He made the BAFTA long list and Critics Choice ballot but missed SAG and the Globes. Oscar may still remember him, but he’s currently 3rd out of these 5 possibilities.

Jeremy Strong’s work as Roy Cohn in The Apprentice has snagged BAFTA long list, the Globes, and SAG and only missed Critics Choice. An excellent argument can be made for Culkin’s Succession costar. At the moment, I have him 2nd of the 5 possibilities which puts him just outside. I could see that changing when I make final picks on Wednesday.

Stanley Tucci is a dark horse for Conclave. No SAG, Globe, or Critics Choice. Just the BAFTA long list and I don’t have him predicted to make their final five. I could envision a scenario where he comes along for the ride at Oscar if they really love Conclave. He’s 4th out of these 5 possibilities.

Denzel Washington’s turn in Gladiator II was correctly called the sequel’s brightest spot. He has the BAFTA long list, Globe, and Critics Choice locked down. SAG voters, on the other hand, surprisingly ignored him. That makes a 10th acting Oscar nomination questionable. I currently have him 1st out of these 5 possibilities and that gets him in. This is mainly predicated on the fact that he’s Denzel Washington and that has worked before (see his 2017 nomination for Roman J. Israel, Esq.).

There you have it. My microscope analysis of Best Supporting Actor for the 97th Academy Awards. Let’s see how it shakes out Wednesday when I do my final picks. I’ll have a dive into Supporting Actress up next!

Oscar Predictions: Spellbound

Spellbound is not a remake of the Alfred Hitchcock classic with Ingmar Bergman and Gregory Peck. It’s an animated musical fantasy from Vicky Jenson (who directed the first Best Animated Feature Oscar victor Shrek) that’s out on Netflix today. Rachel Zegler, John Lithgow, Jenifer Lewis, Titus Burgess, Nathan Lane, Javier Bardem, and Nicole Kidman lend their voices to the project.

This is the second project from Skydance Animation after 2022’s Luck. That feature (which premiered on AppleTV+) drew mixed reviews and attracted scant awards attention. With 62% on Rotten Tomatoes and 54 on Metacritic, the storyline should be the same for Spellbound. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…