Tag: MCU

August 14-16 Box Office Predictions

While Spider-Man: Brand New Day should face no trouble spinning a third weekend atop the charts, two dinosaur centered features will attempt to make their mark at multiplexes. We have 1980s set The End of Oak Street with Anne Hathaway and Ewan McGregor and animated three-quel PAW Patrol: The Dino Movie debuting. They premiere alongside The Brink of War from Angel Studios (recounting the Reagan/Gorbachev 1986 Icelandic summit) and you can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:

The End of Oak Street Box Office Prediction
PAW Patrol: The Dino Movie Box Office Prediction
The Brink of War Box Office Prediction

Buzz appears to picking up for Oak Street, the sci-fi adventure from acclaimed filmmaker David Robert Mitchell. While I wouldn’t discount an opening approaching $40 million, my low to mid 30s projection gives it a second place showing.

The third pic based on the Canadian kids TV series, I foresee PAW Patrol coming in a bit behind 2023 predecessor PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie. It could be in third place, but I’ve got it in fourth slightly behind the fifth outing for The Odyssey.

The Brink of War should land the five spot. The political drama may get beyond my mid single digits estimate, but I’ll play it safe.

As mentioned, Spidey is poised to make it three in a row. A percentage decline in the high 50s would mean a gross just north of $60 million and here’s how I have it all shaking out:

1. Spider-Man: Brand New Day

Predicted Gross: $60.2 million

2. The End of Oak Street

Predicted Gross $32.6 million

3. The Odyssey

Predicted Gross: $21.3 million

4. PAW Patrol: The Dino Movie

Predicted Gross: $19.1 million

5. The Brink of War

Predicted Gross: $4.5 million

Box Office Results (August 7-9)

Two new comedies struggled while Peter Parker and Odysseus continued to rule. Spider-Man: Brand New Day, after scoring the greatest domestic opening haul in box office history, had the third strongest sophomore weekend ever behind Star Wars: The Force Awakens ($149 million) and Avengers: Endgame ($147 million). The MCU saga took in $144.2 million. While that’s below my generous $153 million take, the ten-day total is a whopping $654 million.

The Odyssey held runner-up status once again with $31.7 million, on target with my $31.6 million call. The future awards player sits at $461 million after four weeks.

Rom com One Night Only starring Monica Barbaro and Callum Turner was third at the low end of expectations with $5.5 million. I thought it would nab $7.8 million.

Toy Story 5 was fourth with $4.2 million (I said $4.9 million) as the Pixar sequel brought its eight-week earnings to $470 million.

Finally, Super Troopers 3 fell way behind its 2018 predecessor in fifth. While part 2 made off with $15 million out of the gate, part 3 was good for only $4 million. I went with $7.6 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

August 7-9 Box Office Predictions

A history making weekend just occurred at the box office with Spider-Man: Brand New Day and The Odyssey breaking records. The blockbuster duo should easily rule the charts once again but we do have newcomers jockeying for third place. The Broken Lizard comedy gang returns in Super Troopers 3 while Monica Barbaro and Callum Turner headline the rom com One Night Only. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on them here:

One Night Only Box Office Prediction
Super Troopers 3 Box Office Prediction

We’ll get to the newbies in a minute, but let’s talk Spidey. Brand New Day, the 38th overall MCU pic and 4th franchise effort with Tom Holland in the title role, swung the best opening weekend ever domestically (more on that below). Edging out seven-year record holder Avengers: Endgame by $3 million, Day could be in contention for the highest second frame of all time. In order to do so, it would need to top the $149 million that Star Wars: The Force Awakens earned in 2015 (Endgame did $147 million in its sophomore outing). I’m projecting it’ll get there with a gross just north of $150 million.

Christopher Nolan’s epic The Odyssey should continue its fantastic run with a second place finish in the $30-35 million range.

Third place is more of a question mark and I’m predicting a photo finish between One Night and Troopers. I don’t see either of them greatly exceeding expectations. My $7-8 million take on both gives Night minor bragging rights in third.

Toy Story 5 should place fifth and here’s how I have it shaking out:

1. Spider-Man: Brand New Day

Predicted Gross: $153 million

2. The Odyssey

Predicted Gross: $31.6 million

3. One Night Only

Predicted Gross: $7.8 million

4. Super Troopers 3

Predicted Gross: $7.6 million

5. Toy Story 5

Predicted Gross: $4.9 million

Box Office Results (July 31-August 2)

Spider-Man: Brand New Day astonished prognosticators and pummeled my prediction by nearly $100 million (!) as the MCU sequel swung $360 million. That’s way beyond my $268 million take and ahead of Endgame‘s $357 million record. Audience anticipation was clearly sky high after 2021 predecessor No Way Home as this looks to dominate August at multiplexes.

The Odyssey landed another $51 million in its third weekend to bring its gargantuan total to $395 million. That added coin, coupled with Spider-Man, contributed to the best box office weekend in history (unadjusted for inflation). My projection was slightly lower at $48.5 million.

Toy Story 5 was third in its seventh go-round with $6.7 million, a tad more than my $6.1 million call. The Pixar sequel has hauled in $462 million thus far.

Minions & Monsters was fourth with $6 million compared to my $5.6 million forecast for a five-week tally of $168 million.

Disney’s Moana rounded out the top five with $5.6 million (I said $5.7 million) for $115 million after four weeks.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Oscar Predictions – Spider-Man: Brand New Day

Spider-Man: Brand New Day appears poised to swing the best opening of 2026 when it debuts this weekend. Marking the 38th feature in the Marvel Cinematic Universe and fourth stand-alone Spidey entry starring Tom Holland, Destin Daniel Cretton takes over directorial duties from Jon Watts. Zendaya and Jacob Batalon reprise their roles with MCU regulars Mark Ruffalo as Hulk and Jon Bernthal as The Punisher appearing. Other costars include Sadie Sink, Tramell Tillman, and Michael Mando.

Going back to 2002 when Sam Raimi’s Spidey flick with Tobey Maguire set box office records, the 21st century tales of Mr. Parker have a limited Oscar history. The ’02 version landed Sound and Visual Effects mentions. The 2004 sequel (considered by many to be the strongest of all films featuring the character) won Visual Effects and was up for Sound Editing and Sound Mixing. Then there was a Spidey drought with 2007’s Spider-Man 3, 2012’s The Amazing Spider-Man and its 2014 follow-up (with Andrew Garfield), and Holland’s Spider-Man: Homecoming from 2017 and 2019’s Spider-Man: Far From Home not receiving any recognition. Predecessor Spider-Man: No Way Home (2021) got into the Visual Effects derby, losing to Dune.

While there’s been inconsistency during awards season, there’s been plenty of consistency in the reviews for Holland’s quartet. The Rotten Tomatoes and Metacritic scores are as follows:

Spider-Man: Homecoming: 92% RT, 73 MC

Spider-Man: Far From Home: 91% RT, 69 MC

Spider-Man: No Way Home: 93%, 71 MC

Spider-Man: Brand New Day: 90% RT, 70 MC

Despite the mostly appreciative critical reaction, I expect this to generate no nominations. No Way Home benefitted from a year where there weren’t as many blockbusters with pricey special effects (COVID was limiting theatrical engagements). There are gripes about New Day‘s inconsistent VE. With Project Hail Mary and The Odyssey probably already having two spots locked up and others like Dune: Part Three on the way, my sense is that this goes home empty-handed. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

July 31-August 2 Box Office Predictions

Blogger’s Note (07/29): Spidey prediction was raised from $251 million to $268 million. That’s means I’m projecting it gets the #2 all-time domestic debut.

After a year away from multiplexes, the Marvel Cinematic Universe swings back into theaters with Spider-Man: Brand New Day. The fourth entry in Tom Holland’s web slinger franchise seeks and is highly likely to achieve 2026’s largest domestic debut. My detailed prediction post for it can be accessed here:

Spider-Man: Brand New Day Box Office Prediction

The year’s biggest stateside premiere belongs to Toy Story 5 at $159 million and Spidey should have no trouble toppling that record. A better question is where it’ll rank all-time in the U.S. and Canada. Projections are rising among some prognosticators. While the $357 million hauled in by Avengers: Endgame appears safe, some believe #2 could be in danger. That’s held by Brand predecessor Spider-Man: No Way Home at $260 million. My number puts it in fourth (and fourth MCU overall) just behind Avengers: Infinity War ($257 million) and ahead of Star Wars: The Force Awakens ($247 million).

After two impressive stints in first, Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey will fall to second. While its sophomore weekend hold was dynamite (more on that below), I’ll project a mid-40s decline this time around due to Mr. Holland’s other adventure.

The rest of top six should be a close race between family fare Toy Story 5, Moana, and Minions & Monsters. Here’s how I have it shaking out:

1. Spider-Man: Brand New Day

Predicted Gross: $268 million

2. The Odyssey

Predicted Gross: $48.5 million

3. Toy Story 5

Predicted Gross: $6.1 million

4. Moana

Predicted Gross: $5.7 million

5. Minions & Monsters

Predicted Gross: $5.6 million

Box Office Results (July 24-26)

The Odyssey continued its fabulous box office journey with a scant 27% ease in weekend #2. Adding $90 million to its coffers, the eventual Oscar contender has amassed $289 million as it breezed past my $74.6 million prediction. After a massive start, word-of-mouth is clearly assisting Nolan’s latest.

Moana was second with $10.6 million, in range with my $10.2 million estimate. The live-action version of Disney’s 2016 animated feature passed nine digits with $102 million after three weeks. There’s no doubt the studio was hoping for more at this juncture.

Hadestown: The Musical, a stage recording of the Broadway smash, kicked off with $10.2 million in third and ahead of my $8.5 million call. Initially set for a five-day engagement in theaters, demand has changed the release plan.

Toy Story 5 was fourth with $10.1 million (I said $9.7 million) for a six-week tally of $448 million. Animated competition Minions & Monsters rounded out the top five with $9.7 million compared to my $9 million take. In four weeks, it has taken in $155 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Spider-Man: Brand New Day Box Office Prediction

The 38th film in the Marvel Cinematic Universe and the fourth entry in Tom Holland’s take on the web slinger, Spider-Man: Brand New Day swings into multiplexes on July 31st. It is highly unlikely that audiences will forget to check in. Destin Daniel Cretton, who helmed Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings for the studio, directs. Zendaya and Jacob Batalon reprise their roles from the franchise with Mark Ruffalo’s Hulk and Jon Bernthal’s Punisher in the mix. Other cast members include Sadie Sink, Tramell Tillman, and Michael Mando.

It’s been four and a half years since Spider-Man: No Way Home became 2021’s biggest grosser and sixth largest earner of all time domestically. The high profile joining of Tobey Maguire and Andrew Garfield’s Spideys with Holland’s (and the villains who populated earlier movies) proved irresistible to audiences. Home kicked off with $260 million (the second best MCU start behind Avengers: Endgame) and $814 million stateside when all was said and done. That means it was also second best ever.

This MCU adventure should easily post 2026’s top domestic opening currently held by Toy Story 5 ($159 million). In a best case scenario, it could achieve the second most impressive MCU premiere and surpass No Way Home‘s $260 million. I’ve got it managing to do so for the second largest domestic start of all time.

Spider-Man: Brand New Day opening weekend prediction: $268 million

Oscar Predictions: Hamnet

Five years after Nomadland won her Best Picture and Director statues at the 93rd Academy Awards, Chloé Zhao looks to be contending once again at the 98th ceremony due to Hamnet. Based on the 2020 novel by Maggie O’Farrell (who cowrites the script with the filmmaker), the historical drama has premiered at Telluride prior to its late November limited release and December 12th expansion. It will also screen in Toronto. Jessie Buckley, a Supporting Actress nominee for The Lost Daughter, headlines as Agnes Shakespeare. Paul Mescal, a lead actor contender for 2022’s Aftersun, is her famous playwright husband. Costars include Joe Alwyn, Emily Watson, and Jacobi Jupe.

A fictionalized account of the Shakespeares’ relationship, Hamnet is being called an emotionally wrenching experience and is drawing raves from critics. Metacritic is at 95 with 100% thus far on Rotten Tomatoes. While the MCU’s Eternals (considered by many to be a disappointment) was Zhao’s follow-up to her BP winner, this should bring her back to the awards conversation in multiple categories.

That includes Best Picture, Director, and Adapted Screenplay where inclusion seems quite real. In down-the-line plays, there are multiple possibilities starting with Max Richter’s score. This is in addition to Costume Design, Production Design, Cinematography, and Film Editing.

As for the performances, let’s start with the fact that the new Casting race is doable. There’s no doubt that Buckley is not just a threat for a nomination, but a victory. As for Mescal, it will be interesting to see if Focus Features campaigns for him in lead or supporting. I’m sticking with him in the latter for now though it sounds like it could go either way. I don’t believe his inclusion is as assured as Buckley’s, but the pic’s overall momentum could definitely propel him to a second at bat. Bottom line: Hamnet has unquestionably upped its chances already via the festival circuit.

August 22-24 Box Office Predictions

We’re in the dog days of August as Weapons seeks to three-peat at #1 this weekend though a fascinating challenger could emerge depending on Netflix’s reporting. KPop Demon Hunters A Sing-Along Event looks to capitalize on its massively successful animated streaming numbers with a Saturday and Sunday engagement of theatrical screenings. We also have Ethan Coen’s dark comedy Honey Don’t! out. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newbies here:

KPop Demon Hunters A Sing-Along Event Box Office Prediction
Honey Don’t! Box Office Prediction

KPop Demon Hunters is already the highest viewed Netflix animated picture in history. The streamer decided to give it the silver screen sing-along treatment this Saturday and Sunday only. Here’s the catch: Netflix usually doesn’t report their numbers. I think they could make an exception due to the unprecedented nature of this release. If they do, I believe low teens is doable and maybe even more. If it manages to post a 1st or 2nd place debut, I would think Netflix would want the bragging rights. We shall see what they decide.

As for Don’t!, my lowly $1.8 million projection won’t get it in the top five regardless of whether KPop unveils its grosses. After receiving middling reviews from Cannes and being put out on a meager 1200 screens, look for this to fade rapidly.

That leaves holdovers and Weapons may see a drop in the mid 30s to repeat at #1. In fact, the top five should remain the same quintet if KPop isn’t in the mix. However, I suspect Nobody 2 might have the largest percentage drop and that could result in a fall from third to fifth (or fourth to sixth). That would allow The Fantastic Four: First Steps and The Bad Guys 2 to each rise a spot with Freakier Friday either remaining runner-up or being third.

Here’s my top 6 take with the caveat that KPop‘s placement might not occur:

1. Weapons

Predicted Gross: $16.1 million

**2. KPop Demon Hunters A Sing-Along Event

Predicted Gross: $13.8 million

3. Freakier Friday

Predicted Gross: $8.7 million

4. The Fantastic Four: First Steps

Predicted Gross: $5.8 million

5. The Bad Guys 2

Predicted Gross: $5.2 million

6. Nobody

Predicted Gross: $4.8 million

Box Office Results (August 15-17)

Weapons easily pummeled the competition yet again in its sophomore frame with $24.4 million, right in line with my $24.9 million call. Zach Cregger’s critically hailed horror thriller is up to $88 million after ten days.

Freakier Friday was second in weekend #2 with $14.2 million, slightly exceeding my forecast of $13 million. The Disney sequel has made $54 million.

Action sequel Nobody 2 with Bob Odenkirk opened at the lower end of expectations with $9.2 million, failing to catch my $11.3 million projection. While it managed to outdo its 2021 predecessor, the original faced COVID challenges.

The Fantastic Four: First Steps was fourth with $9 million (I said $7.5 million). The MCU pic’s tally is $247 million after four weeks.

The Bad Guys 2 rounded out the top five with $7.5 million. The 29% decline meant it surpassed my $5.5 million take. The animated sequel has earned $53 million in three weeks.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

August 15-17 Box Office Predictions

Action sequel Nobody 2 starring Bob Odenkirk is the only wide release vying for a spot in the top five this weekend as Weapons aims to repeat in first place. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on the newcomer here:

Nobody 2 Box Office Prediction

The first Nobody in 2021 premiered as COVID was presenting challenges to theaters. The follow-up is expected to build upon on the original’s numbers. I still question whether this gets to teens and I am putting it a shade under. That likely means a third place showing.

Weapons from Zach Cregger had a spectacular debut (more on that below). With an A- Cinemascore (impressive for the genre), its sophomore dip could be less pronounced than other summer offerings. Lack of competition should also help. I will warn that my drop-off projections have been a bit generous lately. Yet I’ll say a low to mid 40s ease should mean a mid 20s gross and that leaves it in first with room to spare.

As for Freakier Friday, it could fall more than 50% and still remain in second. Holdovers The Fantastic Four: First Steps and The Bad Guys 2 should round out the high five. Here’s how I have it playing out:

1. Weapons

Predicted Gross: $24.9 million

2. Freakier Friday

Predicted Gross: $13 million

3. Nobody 2

Predicted Gross: $11.3 million

4. The Fantastic Four: First Steps

Predicted Gross: $7.5 million

5. The Bad Guys 2

Predicted Gross: $5.5 million

Box Office Results (August 8-10)

Weapons capitalized on its intriguing trailer and laudatory reviews, dominating the chart with $43.5 million. That’s way ahead of my meager $28.8 million take and another 2025 winner for Warner Bros. While I don’t see it legging out like Sinners (another WB property), the road ahead should be fruitful.

Disney’s Freakier Friday with Jamie Lee Curtis and Lindsay Lohan had to settle for second with $28.5 million. That’s on the lower end of its expected range and a bit below my $32.5 million prediction. It’ll hope for family audiences to keep it afloat in the coming weeks. That could be a tall order with its intended audience going back to school.

The Fantastic Four: First Steps, after two weeks at #1, was third with $15.7 million. The near 60% plummet (again) was under my $18.9 million estimate and the reboot stands at $230 million.

The Bad Guys 2 was fourth with $10.5 million in its second go-round. Once again I was more generous at $13.6 million. The animated sequel has made $43 million and is likely to fall short of its predecessor’s domestic tally ($97 million).

The Naked Gun rounded out the top five with $8.3 million and I said it would do $10 million. The two-week total is $32 million.

Finally, Sketch from Angel Studios debuted in lowly 10th place with $2.4 million from Friday to Sunday and $4.9 million since its Wednesday bow. I went with $3.9 million and $5.8 million, respectively.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

August 8-10 Box Office Predictions

Freakier Friday looks to rule the whole weekend while critically lauded horror pic Weapons and family fantasy Sketch from Angel Studios also debut. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the trio of newcomers here:

Freakier Friday Box Office Prediction
Weapons Box Office Prediction
Sketch Box Office Prediction

Jamie Lee Curtis and Lindsay Lohan reprise their roles from the 2003 body swap remake Freaky Friday in Freakier Friday. An absence of female driven material over the summer and goodwill towards the predecessor should mean an #1 premiere and I’m projecting low 30s (barring a feasible Weapons over performance).

Weapons should be in line for a runner-up start with encouraging word-of-mouth and effective trailers. High 20s or possible more seems achievable.

As for Sketch, it’s getting solid initial reviews. However, distributor Angel has stalled with their output lately. While I think it could have the capacity to surprise, my $3.9 million estimate from Friday to Sunday and $5.8 million prediction when counting its Wednesday and Thursday numbers would put it outside of the top five (likely in 8th).

Let’s talk holdovers. The Fantastic Four: First Steps fell considerably more than I assumed in its sophomore frame (more on that below). For the third go-round, a 50-52% drop is probably what we’ll see. The dips shouldn’t be as pronounced for The Bad Guys 2 or The Naked Gun in their second weekends. I’ll say mid to high 30s for the former and 40% for the latter.

Here’s how I envision the top 5 shaking out:

1. Freakier Friday

Predicted Gross: $32.5 million

2. Weapons

Predicted Gross: $28.8 million

3. The Fantastic Four: First Steps

Predicted Gross: $18.9 million

4. The Bad Guys 2

Predicted Gross: $13.6 million

5. The Naked Gun

Predicted Gross: $10 million

Box Office Results (August 1-3)

I wrongly thought The Fantastic Four: First Steps would experience a low 50s decline similar to Superman from a couple weeks back. Yet Marvel’s 37th feature tumbled 67% to $38.6 million compared to my far more generous $50.6 million take. The studio can’t love that though it should level off this coming weekend to around 50% (similar to what Thor: Love and Thunder dropped after its high 60s fall).

Two high-profile newbies couldn’t match my projections. DreamWorks Animation’s sequel The Bad Guys 2 was second with $21.9 million. That’s a bit under what its 2022 predecessor managed and I thought it would do a bit over at $28.1 million.

The Naked Gun reboot with Liam Neeson had critics on its side, but still opened on the lower end of its expected range at $16.8 million in third. I had it pegged at $22.3 million. Paramount is hoping for decent legs throughout August.

Superman was fourth with $13.7 million (I said $13.5 million) as the DC reboot has amassed $316 million after four weeks.

Jurassic World Rebirth rounded out the top five with $8.7 million, a tad ahead of my $7.6 million call. After five weeks, it is roaring with $317 million.

Finally, body horror tale Together with Dave Franco and Alison Brie was sixth with $6.7 million from Friday to Sunday and $10.8 million since its Wednesday bow. That’s on pace with my respective predictions of $7 million and $10.2 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

August 1-3 Box Office Predictions

While The Fantastic Four: First Steps looks to ride a wave of solid buzz to a second weekend atop the charts, three new releases will jockey for position. We have animated sequel The Bad Guys 2, comedy franchise reboot The Naked Gun, and the Dave Franco/Alison Brie body horror experience Together premiering. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the trio here:

The Bad Guys 2 Box Office Prediction
The Naked Gun Box Office Prediction
Together Box Office Prediction

Unless The Bad Guys 2 significantly underperforms or The Naked Gun really fires on all cylinders, it should manage a runner-up debut. I’m projecting high 20s which would improve on its 2022 predecessor’s mid-twenties rollout.

The Naked Gun is the biggest question mark of the weekend. While nostalgia could propel it to better than anticipated numbers, series unfamiliarity among younger patrons could hinder it. The range is wide as I see the floor in the teens with breakout potential putting it in second place. My lower 20s compromise means a commendable third place.

Together is at 99% on Rotten Tomatoes, but horror fans have had plenty to feast on recently. My higher single digits estimate (and low double digits when factoring in its Wednesday bow) might put it in a face-off for fifth with the fifth weekend of Jurassic World Rebirth.

As mentioned, The Fantastic Four: First Steps should have no trouble staying in 1st. A mid to high 50s decline would be a bit more than the 53% experienced by Superman. Speaking of Supes, a fourth weekend decline close to 50% should mean fourth place.

Here’s how I see the top 6 shaking out:

1. The Fantastic Four: First Steps

Predicted Gross: $50.6 million

2. The Bad Guys 2

Predicted Gross: $28.1 million

3. The Naked Gun

Predicted Gross: $22.3 million

4. Superman

Predicted Gross: $13.5 million

5. Jurassic World Rebirth

Predicted Gross: $7.6 million

5. Together

Predicted Gross: $7 million (Friday to Sunday); $10.2 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

Box Office Results (July 25-27)

MCU’s 37th feature yielded its 37th #1 in a row as The Fantastic Four: First Steps made $117.6 million. It came close to Superman‘s start, falling short by just over $7 million. The critically appreciated reboot also couldn’t match my $122.4 million prediction. This is still a nice start while not getting to the rosiest of projections.

Superman dropped to second with $24.8 million, flying under my $28 million call. DC’s reboot (that word is popular with this summer’s crop) is nearing $300 million with $289 million in its coffers after three weeks.

Jurassic World Rebirth did cross that threshold with $13.2 million more in weekend #4, in line with my $13.6 million projection. The tally is $301 million.

Other holdovers were in close range with my guesstimates. F1 was fourth with $6.3 million (I said $6.7 million) for five-week earnings of $165 million.

Smurfs rounded out the top five with $5.4 million (I went with $5.5 million). The animated, yes, reboot has brought in a sleepy $22 million in two weeks.

I Know What You Did Last Summer was sixth with $5.2 million (I said $5.3 million) for $23 million in its ten days of release.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…