As a director battling an illness while in Paris for Fashion Week, Angelina Jolie headlines Couture. Out in limited release this weekend, Alice Winocour writes and directs with a supporting cast including Louis Garrel, Ella Rumpf, and Garance Marillier.
Couture was first screened at the Toronto Film Festival last September where it failed to fashion much buzz for itself. Critics are unimpressed with 50% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 49 Metacritic. While some reviews are being kind to Jolie, this appears to be an awards non-starter. That even includes in Best Costume Design despite taking its title from the high-end brand. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Supergirl marks the second feature in the new James Gunn curated iteration of the DC Universe behind last summer’s Superman reboot. Directed by Craig Gillespie, Milly Alcock (who briefly appeared in the Man of Steel’s 2025 adventure) plays the title character. David Corenswet appears as Supes with the supporting cast including Matthias Schoenaerts, Eve Ridley, David Krumholtz, and Jason Momoa as bad guy Lobo (not Aquaman).
Box office expectations aren’t near as high for this DC effort compared to what was happening a year ago. Reviews were mixed on Superman. However, reaction to Supergirl is more negative. While Alcock is getting some decent ink, Rotten Tomatoes is at 57% with 48 on Metacritic.
The only awards races worth considering are Visual Effects, Sound, and Makeup and Hairstyling. Superman didn’t get into any of those despite being shortlisted in the first two. Supergirl‘s best shot might be in Makeup and Hairstyling where Gunn’s Guardians of the Galaxy trilogy managed three nominations. Interestingly critics are comparing Supergirl less with Guardians and more with Mad Max flicks. Like 2024’s Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, the chances are strong this will receive zero noms. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
In a summer dominated by one massive low-budget horror success story, Leviticus is quietly making its own impression. The Australian coming-of-age supernatural tale marks the directorial debut of Adrian Chiarella. Joe Bird and Stacey Clausen headline with a supporting cast including Jeremy Blewitt, Ewen Leslie, and Mia Wasikowska. The film premiered at Sundance back in January with Neon snatching up stateside distribution rights for $5 million.
Out this weekend on just over 1000 screens, Leviticus might make close to that pickup tag right away (and outgross the higher profile The Death of Robin Hood). Mixing a queer love story with religious overtones and horror elements, critics have been praising Chiarella’s first feature. Rotten Tomatoes is at 93% with an 83 on Metacritic.
I could see the Indie Spirit Awards paying attention, but the Academy could be a stretch unless Neon pushes a campaign in Original Screenplay. I suspect Oscar voters will instead look to Obsession to honor the genre. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Disney/Pixar’s Toy Story franchise has had a storied history at the Oscars and it would be more impressive had the Best Animated Feature category existed prior to 2001. The original from 1995 and its 1999 sequel would have been near certainties for that statue (even with part two facing serious competition from The Iron Giant, South Park: Bigger, Longer & Uncut, and Princess Mononoke). In 2010, Toy Story 3 not only won the animated race, but was up for Best Picture. Nine years later, the fourth feature didn’t nab a BP slot but did take the animation prize.
That brings us to Toy Story 5, out this weekend. Andrew Stanton, who’s already taken Best Animated Feature twice for Finding Nemo and Wall-E, finally takes over directorial duties after co-creating the series over 30 years ago. Tom Hanks and Tim Allen are back voicing the iconic characters of Woody and Buzz along with returnees Joan Cusack, Tony Hale, John Ratzenberger, Wallace Shawn, Blake Clark, Annie Potts, Bonnie Hunt, Melissa Villaseñor, Kristen Schaal, Keanu Reeves, and Ally Maki. Newcomers behind the mic include Greta Lee, Conan O’Brien, Craig Robinson, Ernie Hudson, Bad Bunny, and Alan Cumming.
Unsurprisingly, reviews for Toy Story 5 are just fine… with a caveat. While the Rotten Tomatoes meter is 94%, Metacritic is at 74. That’s easily the lowest of the quintet with second lowest being #4 at 84. For that matter, that RT score is the “lowest” as well with the next being the fourth again at 97%.
Why is this important? I think it tells us that, like #4, a Best Picture nomination isn’t happening. Nor is this in the mix for Adapted Screenplay where #3 competed. It also opens the door to #5 not being a shoo-in to win Animated Feature though we’ll see what competition arises in the months to come. Recent examples of Mouse House sequels not taking that trophy are Incredibles 2, Inside Out 2 and Zootopia 2.
Every previous Toy Story flick has seen an Original Song nominated with Randy Newman’s “We Belong Together” victorious for #3. It’s hard to imagine Taylor Swift’s “I Knew It, I Knew You” not getting one of the five spots. It’s already a radio mainstay and would mark the pop star’s first Oscar nod. This is a golden opportunity for the Academy to have her perform at the 99th ceremony. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
It’s been two weeks since my last round of predictions in Best Picture, Director, and the four acting competitions. With mid-June upon us, I am now adding my first takes on the two screenplay derbies.
What’s changed in the last two weeks? In my estimation, Obsession has picked up considerable momentum with its astonishing box office performance. I am now vaulting the low-budget horror smash from #25 all the way into the BP lineup. Additionally, I am now thinking that Focus Features will slot Inde Navarrette and her buzzy performance to Supporting Actress and I’m placing her in my quintet all the way in second position.
While Obsession‘s fortunes have risen, I would say Disclosure Day from Steven Spielberg has taken a slight downturn. The sci-fi saga which debuted this weekend in line with financial expectations (though certainly not over them) will have to battle other blockbusters (Project Hail Mary, The Odyssey, Dune: Part Three) over the next several months for awards viability. It could still get in (and so could Emily Blunt in Actress). However, the non-gushing critical response and mixed audience reaction is a potential roadblock.
Trailers can be deceiving when evaluating a picture’s Oscar chances. Yet I have to admit that I found our first look at The Social Reckoning underwhelming and I dropped it from my BP lineup, putting it just on the outside looking in.
You can read all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Black Ball (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Digger (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (-1)
6. Fjord (PR: 6) (E)
7. No One Cares (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Cry to Heaven (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Obsession (PR: 25) (+15)
Other Possibilities:
11. The Social Reckoning (PR: 9) (-2)
12. All of a Sudden (PR: 12) (E)
13. A Place in Hell (PR: 15) (+2)
14. Disclosure Day (PR: 11) (-2)
15. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 14) (-1)
16. Fatherland (PR: 13) (-3)
17. Behemoth! (PR: 19) (+2)
18. Werwulf (PR: 16) (-2)
19. Jack of Spades (PR: 18) (-1)
20. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 17) (-3)
21. Josephine (PR: 23) (+2)
22. Saturn Return (PR: 24) (+2)
23. Michael (PR: 22) (-1)
24. Being Heumann (PR: 20) (-4)
25. Club Kid (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Entertainment System is Down
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)
2. Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo, The Black Ball (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Digger (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Cristian Mingiu, Fjord (PR: 6) (E)
7. Tom Ford, Cry to Heaven (PR: 7) (E)
8. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three (PR: 8) (E)
9. Curry Barker, Obsession (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Pawel Pawlikowski, Fatherland (PR: 9) (-1)
11. Jesse Eisenberg, No One Cares (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Chloe Domont, A Place in Hell (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Georgia Oakley, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 14) (E)
15. Robert Eggers, Werwulf (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Steven Spielberg, Disclosure Day
Aaron Sorkin, The Social Reckoning
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Renate Reinsve, Fjord (PR: 1) (E)
2. Julianne Moore, No One Cares (PR: 2) (E)
3. Michelle Williams, A Place in Hell (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sandra Hüller, Fatherland (PR: 6) (E)
7. Emily Blunt, Disclosure Day (PR: 7) (E)
8. Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 11) (+3)
9. Sandra Hüller, Rose (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie (PR: 8) (-2)
11. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Mason Reeves, Josephine (PR: 14) (+2)
13. Sophie Okonedo, Clarissa (PR: 13) (E)
14. Penélope Cruz, Bunker (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Léa Seydoux, Gentle Monster (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Inde Navarrette, Obsession (moved to Supporting Actress)
Rachel Brosnahan, Saturn Return
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Tom Cruise, Digger (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sebastian Stan, Fjord (PR: 3) (E)
4. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (E)
5. Matt Damon, The Odyssey (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. John Turturro, The Only Living Pickpocket in New York (PR: 13) (+7)
7. Pedro Pascal, Behemoth! (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Nicholas Hoult, Cry to Heaven (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Jaafar Jackson, Michael (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Dominic Sessa, Tony (PR: 8) (-2)
11. Robert Pattinson, Primetime (PR: 11) (E)
12. Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Three (PR: 12) (E)
13. Hanns Zischler, Fatherland (PR: 14) (+1)
14. Rami Malek, The Man I Love (PR: 10 (-4)
15. Jordan Firstman, Club Kid (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Javier Bardem, The Beloved
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mariana Di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (E)
2. Inde Navarrette, Obsession (PR: Not Ranked – moved from lead Actress)
3. Sandra Hüller, Digger (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Penélope Cruz, The Black Ball (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Tao Okamoto, All of a Sudden (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Daisy Edgar-Jones, A Place in Hell (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Esmé Creed-Miles, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 10) (E)
11. Penélope Cruz, The Invite (PR: 13) (+2)
12. Halle Bailey, No One Cares (PR: 9) (-3)
13. Scarlet Johansson, Paper Tiger (PR: 15) (+2)
14. Elizabeth Debicki, The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 11) (-3)
15. Lesley Manville, Jack of Spades (PR: 14) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Adele, Cry to Heaven
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Paul Giamatti, No One Cares (PR: 1) (E)
2. John Goodman, Digger (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)
4. Robert Pattinson, The Odyssey (PR: 4) (E)
5. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning (PR: 6) (E)
7. Jesse Plemons, Digger (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Colman Domingo, Michael (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Andrew Scott, A Place in Hell (PR: 13) (+4)
10. Riz Ahmed, Digger (PR: Not Ranked)
11. Channing Tatum, Josephine (PR: 12) (+1)
12. James Ortiz, Project Hail Mary (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Tom Holland, The Odyssey (PR: 10) (-3)
14. Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Cry to Heaven (PR: 7) (-7)
At last month’s Cannes Film Festival, Jordan Firstman’s feature length directorial debut Club Kid was a crowd favorite that sparked a bidding war won by A24. Firstman, known best for his Instagram posts, also penned the screenplay and stars as a party promoter unexpectedly forced to grow up. The dramedy’s supporting cast includes Cara Delevingne, Diego Calva, and Reggie Absolom.
With 100% on Rotten Tomatoes and 85 on Metacritic, A24 shelled out $17 million for distribution rights with a release expected in the fall. This could be a sleeper hit with the right promotion by the parties involved. I would expect an awards campaign with the likeliest shot being Original Screenplay and Best Picture and Firstman’s lead performance as longer shots. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
A dark interpretation of a folkloric character portrayed many times on film, Hugh Jackman has title role status in The Death of Robin Hood. Out June 19th, costars include Jodie Comer, Bill Skarsgård, Murray Bartlett, and Noah Jupe. Michael Sarnoski, maker of Pig and A Quiet Place: Day One, directs.
Mr. Jackman is generally being appreciated for his downbeat take on the part. Reviews are varied with 67% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 62 Metacritic. That’s more than 2010’s Robin Hood from Ridley Scott and starring Jackman’s Les Miserables singing partner Russell Crowe. It’s far better than 2018’s version with Taron Egerton, but the critical reaction does not indicate the A24 release will play in awards season. I doubt its distributor will prioritize it. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Disclosure Day, which returns Steven Spielberg to the extraterrestrial genre, marks the 34th feature from the iconic filmmaker. Of the previous 33, only five failed to receive at least Oscar nomination: 1974’s The Sugarland Express, 1989’s Always, 2004’s The Terminal, 2008’s Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull, and 2016’s The BFG. That’s one heckuva percentage with the Academy and it’s highly unlikely that Disclosure Day will become the sixth to blank with voters.
Out this weekend, the sci-fi tale reunites the director with his frequent screenwriter David Koepp. Emily Blunt, Josh O’Connor, Colin Firth, Eve Hewson, Wyatt Russell, and Colman Domingo headline the cast. The review embargo is up with an encouraging 88% on Rotten Tomatoes and 74 on Metacritic.
Finding Spielberg back in the blockbuster territory for the first time since 2018’s Ready Player One, this is not as Oscar baity as his last two projects (West Side Story and The Fabelmans). As far as Disclosure‘s Best Picture prospects, the possibility is there under a best case scenario. However, other mass appeal pics like Project Hail Mary (which has probably punched its BP ticket) and the upcoming The Odyssey and Dune: Part Three loom. If it manages to get into BP, Spielberg could follow suit in director. Original Screenplay might be more of a challenge.
It’s no surprise that the film’s strongest chances lie below the line, particularly in Sound and Visual Effects. Then there’s John Williams. Spielberg’s most frequent collaborator could manage an Original Score mention. He would be 95 when the 99th ceremony airs and it would mark his 55th (!) nomination with five victories to his legendary name.
As far as the cast, Firth is getting good ink. Yet it’s Blunt who could make the cut in Best Actress. Competition will clearly be key, but she is being heralded in what some critics are calling career-best work. She is nowhere near as guaranteed to get in as her The Fall Guy costar Ryan Gosling is for Hail Mary, but Blunt definitely has a prayer. If so, it would mark only her second attempt at Academy gold after being up in Supporting Actress for 2023’s Oppenheimer.
Bottom line: Disclosure Day will keep its maker’s popularity with the Academy intact. The number of nominations is the real mystery. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Some reviews indicate that Claire Foy and Richard E. Grant might be having more fun than the audience will in Savage House. The 18th century set British black comedy is from writer/director Peter Glanz with a supporting cast including Kila Lord Cassidy, Bel Powley, and Jack Farthing. Out this weekend in limited fashion, the Paramount release was originally slated for late 2024.
With 62% on Rotten Tomatoes, most of the praise is going to Foy (never nominated for an Oscar) and Grant (a 2018 supporting contender for Can You Ever Forgive Me?). Yet the mixed reaction means the Academy is likely to ignore it unless the studio can manage noms that can greet this genre like Costume Design (more likely) and Production Design (less). I wouldn’t bet on it and I doubt the Globes or BAFTAs take notice either. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Léa Seydoux was working double duty at the Cannes Film Festival this year with The Unknown (look for that individual post shortly) and the family drama Gentle Monster. The co-production between Austria, France, Germany, and Sweden is the latest feature from Corsage director Marie Kreutzer. Jella Haase, Laurence Rupp, and Catherine Deneuve are among the supporting players.
Both pics for the headlining French actress have the commonality of Seydoux being praised with the film drawing more of a mixed reaction. Rotten Tomatoes is at 59% with the somewhat rare occurrence of Metacritic being higher at 70.
The only feasible awards play is Best Actress. Netflix has reportedly picked up distribution rights. They would need a robust campaign. I would also say Monster needs to pick up steam by playing fall fests and hoping the buzz gets stronger. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
All My Life... I Wanted To Be A Blogster 