Tag Archives: Carey Mulligan

2018 Weekly Oscar Predictions: October 18th Edition

Back at it again with my weekly Thursday predictions in the major categories for this year’s Oscars! Here’s some tidbits about developments over the past week:

  • Damien Chazelle’s First Man experienced a lackluster liftoff at the box office this past weekend with just $16 million (about $5 million or so below expectations). Will this alter its course for numerous nominations? Short answer: probably not. However, I do have it dropping spots in Picture, Director, and Actor while still predicting nods for all three. Claire Foy remains at #2 behind Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk) for Supporting Actress.
  • Speaking of that category, it will finally confirmed this week regarding placement of performers for The Favourite. Olivia Colman will compete in lead Actress with Emma Stone and Rachel Weisz in Supporting. As I have projected for weeks, I think that bodes well for all three actresses in garnering nods.
  • Beautiful Boy performed very well in limited release last week and I have vaulted Timothee Chalamet back to the #1 spot in the fluid Supporting Actor race.

And with that – here’s where I think Oscar standings are at this moment in time…

Best Picture

1. A Star Is Born (Previous Ranking: 1)

2. Roma (PR: 2)

3. The Favourite (PR: 4)

4. Green Book (PR: 5)

5. First Man (PR: 3)

6. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 6)

7. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 7)

8. Black Panther (PR: 8)

9. Vice (PR: 9)

Other Possibilities:

10. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 11)

11. Widows (PR: 10)

12. The Mule (PR: 12)

13. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 15)

14. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 16)

15. On the Basis of Sex (PR: 17)

16. Boy Erased (PR: 14)

17. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 13)

18. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 18)

19. Leave No Trace (PR: 19)

20. Eighth Grade (PR: 22)

21. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 25)

22. Beautiful Boy (PR: 23)

23. The Hate U Give (PR: Not Ranked)

24. A Quiet Place (PR: Not Ranked)

25. The Front Runner (PR: 24)

Dropped Out:

At Eternity’s Gate

The Sisters Brothers

Best Director

1. Alfonso Cuaron, Roma (PR: 1)

2. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 2)

3. Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite (PR: 5)

4. Damien Chazelle, First Man (PR: 3)

5. Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 6)

7. Peter Farrelly, Green Book (PR: 7)

8. Adam McKay, Vice (PR: 8)

9. Ryan Coogler, Black Panther (PR: 10)

10. Marielle Heller, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 11)

11. Steve McQueen, Widows (PR: 13)

12. Clint Eastwood, The Mule (PR: 12)

13. Josie Rourke, Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 14)

14. Joel and Ethan Coen, The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 9)

15. Jon M. Chu, Crazy Rich Asians (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Joel Edgerton, Boy Erased

Best Actor

1. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 1)

2. Christian Bale, Vice (PR: 2)

3. Viggo Mortensen, Green Book (PR: 3)

4. Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 5)

5. Ryan Gosling, First Man (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate (PR: 6)

7. Robert Redford, The Old Man & The Gun (PR: 7)

8. Steve Carell, Beautiful Boy (PR: 9)

9. Clint Eastwood, The Mule (PR: 8)

10. Hugh Jackman, The Front Runner (PR: 11)

11. Ethan Hawke, First Reformed (PR: 10)

12. Lucas Hedges, Ben Is Back (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Ben Foster, Leave No Trace (PR: 15)

14. John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 14)

15. Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased (PR: 12)

Dropped Out:

Stephan James, If Beale Street Could Talk 

Best Actress

1. Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born (PR: 1)

2. Glenn Close, The Wife (PR: 2)

3. Olivia Colman, The Favourite (PR: 3)

4. Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 4)

5. Yalitza Aparicio, Roma (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Viola Davis, Widows (PR: 6)

7. Saoirse Ronan, Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 7)

8. Felicity Jones, On the Basis of Sex (PR: 8)

9. Julia Roberts, Ben Is Back (PR: 9)

10. Nicole Kidman, Destroyer (PR: 11)

11. Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 12)

12. Toni Collette, Hereditary (PR: 10)

13. Kiki Layne, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 14)

14. Carey Mulligan, Wildlife (PR: 13)

15. Elsie Fisher, Eighth Grade (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Keira Knightley, Colette

Best Supporting Actor

1. Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy (PR: 3)

2. Mahershala Ali, Green Book (PR: 1)

3. Sam Elliot, A Star Is Born (PR: 2)

4. Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 4)

5. Sam Rockwell, Vice (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Daniel Kaluuya, Widows (PR: 6)

7. Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther (PR: 8)

8. Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 7)

9. Steve Carell, Vice (PR: 9)

10. Nicholas Hoult, The Favourite (PR: 12)

11. Armie Hammer, On the Basis of Sex (PR: 10)

12. Russell Crowe, Boy Erased (PR: 11)

13. Russell Hornsby, The Hate U Give (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Robert Forster, What They Had (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Tim Blake Nelson, The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 13)

Dropped Out:

Brian Tyree Henry, If Beale Street Could Talk

Bradley Cooper, The Mule

Best Supporting Actress

1. Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 1)

2. Claire Foy, First Man (PR: 2)

3. Emma Stone, The Favourite (PR: 3)

4. Rachel Weisz, The Favourite (PR: 4)

5. Amy Adams, Vice (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Natalie Portman, Vox Lux (PR: 6)

7. Marina de Tavira, Roma (PR: 8)

8. Michelle Yeoh, Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 7)

9. Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased (PR: 9)

10. Margot Robbie, Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 11)

11. Thomasin McKenzie, Leave No Trace (PR: 13)

12. Sissy Spacek, The Old Man & The Gun (PR: 10)

13. Rachel McAdams, Disobedience (PR: 14)

14. Kathy Bates, On the Basis of Sex (PR: 15)

15. Dianne Wiest, The Mule (PR: 12)

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 1)

2. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 2)

3. A Star Is Born (PR: 3)

4. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 4)

5. Widows (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. First Man (PR: 6)

7. Leave No Trace (PR: 7)

8. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 8)

9. Boy Erased (PR: 9)

10. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 10)

11. Beautiful Boy (PR: 14)

12. Black Panther (PR: 11)

13. The Hate U Give (PR: 12)

14. The Front Runner (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Disobedience (PR: 13)

Dropped Out:

Wildlife

Best Original Screenplay

1. Roma (PR: 1)

2. The Favourite (PR: 2)

3. Green Book (PR: 3)

4. Eighth Grade (PR: 5)

5. Vice (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 6)

7. First Reformed (PR: 7)

8. On the Basis of Sex (PR: 10)

9. A Quiet Place (PR: 9)

10. The Mule (PR: 8)

11. Private Life (PR: 11)

12. Ben Is Back (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Stan and Ollie (PR: 14)

14. At Eternity’s Gate (PR: 12)

15. Sorry to Bother You (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Mid90s

Capernaum

2018 Weekly Oscar Predictions: October 11th Edition

Back at ya with my weekly Oscar predictions! Here’s some tidbits that have transpired over the past seven days:

  • While the official review embargo has not lifted, Bohemian Rhapsody has screened and early word-of-mouth is out. Reaction for this film itself seems mixed and it has caused the Freddie Mercury biopic to drop to 25th in my BP rankings and out of my Original Screenplay possibilities. On the other hand, chatter about Rami Malek’s performance is terrific. For the first time, he enters my top 5 predicted Actor nominees, knocking out Willem Dafoe’s work in At Eternity’s Gate. One thing seems certain: the lead actor race is looking very crowded at the moment.
  • Speaking of that category, it was confirmed that Stephan James from If Beale Street Could Talk will be campaigned for in that category (I’ve had him listed in Supporting previously).
  • In Best Actress, I have switched Lady Gaga (A Star Is Born) back to #1 over runner-up Glenn Close in The Wife. This appears to be a close contest between the two at the moment.
  • There is still uncertainty about category placement for the three women of The Favourite. Some chatter has Emma Stone as the obvious Actress candidate along with Olivia Colman. Everyone seems to agree that Rachel Weisz will land in Supporting Actress. For now, I’m keeping Colman in Actress with Stone/Weisz in Supporting, but changes could happen.
  • Also in Supporting Actress, I am now listing Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk) at #1 over Claire Foy (First Man).
  • Widows is just on the outside of my predicted nominees in a number of races including Picture, Actress (Viola Davis), and Supporting Actor (Daniel Kaluuya). I feel it will get nominated for something and I am including it in Adapted Screenplay over First Man.

And with that, let’s get to it!

Best Picture

1. A Star Is Born (Previous Ranking: 1)

2. Roma (PR: 2)

3. First Man (PR: 3)

4. The Favourite (PR: 4)

5. Green Book (PR: 5)

6. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 6)

7. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 7)

8. Black Panther (PR: 8)

9. Vice (PR: 9)

Other Possibilities:

10. Widows (PR: 11)

11. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 10)

12. The Mule (PR: 15)

13. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 16)

14. Boy Erased (PR: 12)

15. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 14)

16. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 13)

17. On the Basis of Sex (PR: 17)

18. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 19)

19. Leave No Trace (PR: 23)

20. At Eternity’s Gate (PR: 20)

21. The Sisters Brothers (PR: 21)

22. Eighth Grade (PR: 25)

23. Beautiful Boy (PR: 22)

24. The Front Runner (PR: 24)

25. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 18)

Best Director

1. Alfonso Cuaron, Roma (PR: 1)

2. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 2)

3. Damien Chazelle, First Man (PR: 3)

4. Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 4)

5. Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 6)

7. Peter Farrelly, Green Book (PR: 7)

8. Adam McKay, Vice (PR: 8)

9. Joel and Ethan Coen, The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 14)

10. Ryan Coogler, Black Panther (PR: 9)

11. Marielle Heller, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 10)

12. Clint Eastwood, The Mule (PR: 13)

13. Steve McQueen, Widows (PR: 11)

14. Josie Rourke, Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 12)

15. Joel Edgerton, Boy Erased (PR: 15)

Best Actor

1. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 1)

2. Christian Bale, Vice (PR: 2)

3. Viggo Mortensen, Green Book (PR: 5)

4. Ryan Gosling, First Man (PR: 4)

5. Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate (PR: 3)

7. Robert Redford, The Old Man & The Gun (PR: 7)

8. Clint Eastwood, The Mule (PR: 8)

9. Steve Carell, Beautiful Boy (PR: 11)

10. Ethan Hawke, First Reformed (PR: 10)

11. Hugh Jackman, The Front Runner (PR: 14)

12. Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased (PR: 9)

13. Stephan James, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: Not Ranked)

14. John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 13)

15. Ben Foster, Leave No Trace (PR: 12)

Dropped Out:

John C. Reilly, The Sisters Brothers (PR: 15)

Best Actress

1. Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born (PR: 2)

2. Glenn Close, The Wife (PR: 1)

3. Olivia Colman, The Favourite (PR: 3)

4. Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 4)

5. Yalitza Aparicio, Roma (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Viola Davis, Widows (PR: 6)

7. Saoirse Ronan, Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 8)

8. Felicity Jones, On the Basis of Sex (PR: 7)

9. Julia Roberts, Ben Is Back (PR: 11)

10. Toni Collette, Hereditary (PR: 10)

11. Nicole Kidman, Destroyer (PR: 9)

12. Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 13)

13. Carey Mulligan, Wildlife (PR: 14)

14. Kiki Layne, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 15)

15. Keira Knightley, Colette (PR: 12)

Best Supporting Actor

1. Mahershala Ali, Green Book (PR: 1)

2. Sam Elliot, A Star Is Born (PR: 3)

3. Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy (PR: 2)

4. Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 4)

5. Sam Rockwell, Vice (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Daniel Kaluuya, Widows (PR: 6)

7. Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 7)

8. Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther (PR: 8)

9. Steve Carell, Vice (PR: 9)

10.  Armie Hammer, On the Basis of Sex (PR: 13)

11. Russell Crowe, Boy Erased (PR: 10)

12. Nicholas Hoult, The Favourite (PR: 12)

13. Tim Blake Nelson, The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Brian Tyree Henry, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Bradley Cooper, The Mule (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

John C. Reilly, Stan and Ollie

Jason Clarke, First Man

David Tennant, Mary Queen of Scots

Best Supporting Actress

1. Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 2)

2. Claire Foy, First Man (PR: 1)

3. Emma Stone, The Favourite (PR: 3)

4. Rachel Weisz, The Favourite (PR: 4)

5. Amy Adams, Vice (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Natalie Portman, Vox Lux (PR: 6)

7. Michelle Yeoh, Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 8)

8. Marina de Tavira, Roma (PR: 10)

9. Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased (PR: 7)

10. Sissy Spacek, The Old Man & The Gun (PR: 9)

11. Margot Robbie, Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 11)

12. Dianne Wiest, The Mule (PR: 15)

13. Thomasin McKenzie, Leave No Trace (PR: 13)

14. Rachel McAdams, Disobedience (PR: 12)

15. Kathy Bates, On the Basis of Sex (PR: 14)

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 1)

2. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 2)

3. A Star Is Born (PR: 3)

4. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 5)

5. Widows (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. First Man (PR: 4)

7. Leave No Trace (PR: 7)

8. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 8)

9. Boy Erased (PR: 9)

10. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 11)

11. Black Panther (PR: 10)

12. The Hate U Give (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Disobedience (PR: 12)

14. Beautiful Boy (PR: 13)

15. Wildlife (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Sisters Brothers

The Mule (Moved to Original Screenplay)

Best Original Screenplay

1. Roma (PR: 2)

2. The Favourite (PR: 1)

3. Green Book (PR: 3)

4. Vice (PR: 4)

5. Eighth Grade (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 6)

7. First Reformed (PR: 7)

8. The Mule (PR: Not Ranked – moved from Adapted)

9. A Quiet Place (PR: 10)

10. On the Basis of Sex (PR: 9)

11. Private Life (PR: 11)

12. At Eternity’s Gate (PR: 8)

13. Mid90s (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Stan and Ollie (PR: 15)

15. Capernaum (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Hereditary

Bohemian Rhapsody

Ben Is Back

2018 Weekly Oscar Predictions: October 4th Edition

My first Oscar predictions of October are here as the new month has brought in some important scheduling announcements!

First, it has been confirmed that Clint Eastwood’s The Mule will indeed be released in 2018. While some reports suggest it’s more of a commercial play for Warner Bros than an awards one… its release means I’m including it for the first time in a number of categories as a possibility (Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay). You just can’t discount Eastwood from the awards derby.

We also learned that Mike Leigh’s Peterloo and the sci-fi tale Alita: Battle Angel have been moved to 2019. While neither of them were considered players in the major categories, both could have been contenders in down the line tech races. Not anymore.

In other developments:

  • Timothee Chalamet (Beautiful Boy) has been ranked #1 since late August in Supporting Actor, but that now changes to Mahershala Ali in Green Book.
  • The first trailer for Vice is out. It maintains its spot at #9 on my Best Picture possibilities, but I’ve now moved Sam Rockwell into the five predicted nominees for Supporting Actor. I’m also vaulting Christian Bale from the 5 spot in Best Actor to second.

Let’s get to it!

Best Picture

1. A Star Is Born (Previous Ranking: 1)

2. Roma (PR: 2)

3. First Man (PR: 3)

4. The Favourite (PR: 5)

5. Green Book (PR: 4)

6. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 6)

7. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 7)

8. Black Panther (PR: 8)

9. Vice (PR: 9)

Other Possibilities:

10. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 10)

11. Widows (PR: 11)

12. Boy Erased (PR: 12)

13. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 15)

14. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 13)

15. The Mule (PR: Not Ranked)

16. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 14)

17. On the Basis of Sex (PR: 19)

18. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 16)

19. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 20)

20. At Eternity’s Gate (PR: 18)

21. The Sisters Brothers (PR: 17)

22. Beautiful Boy (PR: 23)

23. Leave No Trace (PR: 21)

24. The Front Runner (PR: 24)

25. Eighth Grade (PR: 22)

Dropped Out:

Stan and Ollie

Best Director

1. Alfonso Cuaron, Roma (PR: 1)

2. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 3)

3. Damien Chazelle, First Man (PR: 2)

4. Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 5)

5. Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 6)

7. Peter Farrelly, Green Book (PR: 7)

8. Adam McKay, Vice (PR: 9)

9. Ryan Coogler, Black Panther (PR: 8)

10. Marielle Heller, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 10)

11. Steve McQueen, Widows (PR: 11)

12. Josie Rourke, Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 15)

13. Clint Eastwood, The Mule (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Joel and Ethan Coen, The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 14)

15. Joel Edgerton, Boy Erased (PR: 13)

Dropped Out:

Jacques Audiard, The Sisters Brothers 

Best Actor

1. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 1)

2. Christian Bale, Vice (PR: 5)

3. Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate (PR: 3)

4. Ryan Gosling, First Man (PR: 2)

5. Viggo Mortensen, Green Book (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 6)

7. Robert Redford, The Old Man & The Gun (PR: 7)

8. Clint Eastwood, The Mule (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased (PR: 8)

10. Ethan Hawke, First Reformed (PR: 10)

11. Steve Carell, Beautiful Boy (PR: 9)

12. Ben Foster, Leave No Trace (PR: 11)

13. John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 13)

14. Hugh Jackman, The Front Runner (PR: 14)

15. John C. Reilly, The Sisters Brothers (PR: 12)

Dropped Out:

Chadwick Boseman, Black Panther

Best Actress

1. Glenn Close, The Wife (PR: 1)

2. Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born (PR: 2)

3. Olivia Colman, The Favourite (PR: 3)

4. Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 4)

5. Yalitza Aparicio, Roma (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Viola Davis, Widows (PR: 6)

7. Felicity Jones, On the Basis of Sex (PR: 7)

8. Saoirse Ronan, Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 8)

9. Nicole Kidman, Destroyer (PR: 9)

10. Toni Collette, Hereditary (PR: 11)

11. Julia Roberts, Ben Is Back (PR: 10)

12. Keira Knightley, Colette (PR: 15)

13. Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 12)

14. Carey Mulligan, Wildlife (PR: 14)

15. Kiki Layne, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 13)

Best Supporting Actor

1. Mahershala Ali, Green Book (PR: 2)

2. Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy (PR: 1)

3. Sam Elliot, A Star Is Born (PR: 4)

4. Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 3)

5. Sam Rockwell, Vice (PR: 8)

Other Possibilities:

6. Daniel Kaluuya, Widows (PR: 5)

7. Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 6)

8. Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther (PR: 8)

9. Steve Carell, Vice (PR: 14)

10. Russell Crowe, Boy Erased (PR: 11)

11. John C. Reilly, Stan and Ollie (PR: 10)

12. Nicholas Hoult, The Favourite (PR: 9)

13. Armie Hammer, On the Basis of Sex (PR: 12)

14. Jason Clarke, First Man (PR: 13)

15. David Tennant, Mary Queen of Scots (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Oscar Isaac, At Eternity’s Gate

Best Supporting Actress

1. Claire Foy, First Man (PR: 1)

2. Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 2)

3. Emma Stone, The Favourite (PR: 3)

4. Rachel Weisz, The Favourite (PR: 4)

5. Amy Adams, Vice (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Natalie Portman, Vox Lux (PR: 7)

7. Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased (PR: 6)

8. Michelle Yeoh, Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 9)

9. Sissy Spacek, The Old Man & The Gun (PR: 8)

10. Marina de Tavira, Roma (PR: 11)

11. Margot Robbie, Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 10)

12. Rachel McAdams, Disobedience (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Thomasin McKenzie, Leave No Trace (PR: 13)

14. Kathy Bates, On the Basis of Sex (PR: 14)

15. Dianne Wiest, The Mule (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Elizabeth Debicki, Widows

Linda Cardellini, Green Book

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 1)

2. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 2)

3. A Star Is Born (PR: 3)

4. First Man (PR: 4)

5. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Widows (PR: 7)

7. Leave No Trace (PR: 6)

8. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 8)

9. Boy Erased (PR: 9)

10. Black Panther (PR: 10)

11. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 11)

12. Disobedience (PR: 13)

13. Beautiful Boy (PR: 15)

14. The Sisters Brothers (PR: 12)

15. The Mule (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Front Runner

Best Original Screenplay

1. The Favourite (PR: 1)

2. Roma (PR: 3)

3. Green Book (PR: 2)

4. Vice (PR: 5)

5. Eighth Grade (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 9)

7. First Reformed (PR: 6)

8. At Eternity’s Gate (PR: 12)

9. On the Basis of Sex (PR: 7)

10. A Quiet Place (PR: 8)

11. Private Life (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Hereditary (PR: 14)

13. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 13)

14. Ben Is Back (PR: 10)

15. Stan and Ollie (PR: 11)

Dropped Out:

Sorry to Bother You 

2018 Weekly Oscar Predictions: September 27th Edition

As my weekly Oscar predictions roll along, I finally had a week not loaded with festival news and screenings. As you can see, placements in the major categories don’t have quite as much volatility this week.

That said, there was news. Of the few contenders that haven’t screened, it was announced that On the Basis of Sex will open this year’s AFI Fest in November and that Mary Queen of Scots will close it. Their inclusion in the fest bumps their stock up a bit in my rankings this time around. Of course, it won’t be until they screen that we know the real story.

In other developments related to my rankings:

  • Yalitza Aparicio (Roma) overtakes Viola Davis (Widows) for the five-spot in Best Actress.
  • Additionally in Best Actress, Glenn Close (The Wife) now holds the #1 predicted slot over Lady Gaga (A Star Is Born).
  • In Best Adapted Screenplay, the five predicted pictures remain the same. However, BlackKlansman and If Beale Street Could Talk now hold the 1-2 spots over A Star Is Born and First Man.
  • Ben Foster (Leave No Trace) will apparently be campaigned for in lead Actor and not Supporting so that change has been reflected in my estimates.

Let’s get to it!

Best Picture

1. A Star Is Born (Previous Ranking: 1)

2. Roma (PR: 2)

3. First Man (PR: 3)

4. Green Book (PR: 5)

5. The Favourite (PR: 4)

6. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 7)

7. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 6)

8. Black Panther (PR: 8)

9. Vice (PR: 9)

Other Possibilities:

10. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 10)

11. Widows (PR: 12)

12. Boy Erased (PR: 11)

13. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 18)

14. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 13)

15. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 14)

16. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 17)

17. The Sisters Brothers (PR: 15)

18. At Eternity’s Gate (PR: 19)

19. On the Basis of Sex (PR: 23)

20. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 21)

21. Leave No Trace (PR: 25)

22. Eighth Grade (PR: 24)

23. Beautiful Boy (PR: 20)

24. The Front Runner (PR: 16)

25. Stan and Ollie (PR: 22)

Best Director

1. Alfonso Cuaron, Roma (PR: 1)

2. Damien Chazelle, First Man (PR: 3)

3. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 2)

4. Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite (PR: 4)

5. Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 6)

7. Peter Farrelly, Green Book (PR: 7)

8. Ryan Coogler, Black Panther (PR: 8)

9. Adam McKay, Vice (PR: 9)

10. Marielle Heller, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 10)

11. Steve McQueen, Widows (PR: 12)

12. Jacques Audiard, The Sisters Brothers (PR: 11)

13. Joel Edgerton, Boy Erased (PR: 14)

14. Joel and Ethan Coen, The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 13)

15. Josie Rourke, Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 15)

Best Actor

1. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 1)

2. Ryan Gosling, First Man (PR: 2)

3. Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate (PR: 3)

4. Viggo Mortensen, Green Book (PR: 4)

5. Christian Bale, Vice (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 8)

7. Robert Redford, The Old Man & The Gun (PR: 6)

8. Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased (PR: 10)

9. Steve Carell, Beautiful Boy (PR: 7)

10. Ethan Hawke, First Reformed (PR: 11)

11. Ben Foster, Leave No Trace (PR: Not Ranked – moved from Supporting Actor)

12. John C. Reilly, The Sisters Brothers (PR: 13)

13. John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 12)

14. Hugh Jackman, The Front Runner (PR: 9)

15. Chadwick Boseman, Black Panther (PR: 14)

Dropped Out:

Joaquin Phoenix, You Were Never Really Here

Best Actress

1. Glenn Close, The Wife (PR: 2)

2. Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born (PR: 1)

3. Olivia Colman, The Favourite (PR: 3)

4. Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 4)

5. Yalitza Aparicio, Roma (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Viola Davis, Widows (PR: 5)

7. Felicity Jones, On the Basis of Sex (PR: 10)

8. Saoirse Ronan, Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 11)

9. Nicole Kidman, Destroyer (PR: 7)

10. Julia Roberts, Ben Is Back (PR: 9)

11. Toni Collette, Hereditary (PR: 8)

12. Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 13)

13. Kiki Layne, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 12)

14. Carey Mulligan, Wildlife (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Keira Knightley, Colette (PR: 15)

Dropped Out:

Elsie Fisher, Eighth Grade

Best Supporting Actor

1. Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy (PR: 1)

2. Mahershala Ali, Green Book (PR: 2)

3. Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 4)

4. Sam Elliot, A Star Is Born (PR: 3)

5. Daniel Kaluuya, Widows (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 7)

7. Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther (PR: 9)

8. Sam Rockwell, Vice (PR: 8)

9. Nicholas Hoult, The Favourite (PR: 6)

10. John C. Reilly, Stan and Ollie (PR: 11)

11. Russell Crowe, Boy Erased (PR: 10)

12. Armie Hammer, On the Basis of Sex (PR: 12)

13. Jason Clarke, First Man (PR: 14)

14. Steve Carell, Vice (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Oscar Isaac, At Eternity’s Gate (PR: 15)

Dropped Out:

Ben Foster, Leave No Trace (moved to Lead Actor)

Best Supporting Actress

1. Claire Foy, First Man (PR: 1)

2. Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 2)

3. Emma Stone, The Favourite (PR: 3)

4. Rachel Weisz, The Favourite (PR: 4)

5. Amy Adams, Vice (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased (PR: 6)

7. Natalie Portman, Vox Lux (PR: 8)

8. Sissy Spacek, The Old Man & The Gun (PR: 9)

9. Michelle Yeoh, Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 7)

10. Margot Robbie, Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 13)

11. Marina de Tavira, Roma (PR: 11)

12. Elizabeth Debicki, Widows (PR: 10)

13. Thomasin McKenzie, Leave No Trace (PR: 14)

14. Kathy Bates, On the Basis of Sex (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Linda Cardellini, Green Book (PR: 12)

Dropped Out:

Maura Tierney, Beautiful Boy

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 3)

2. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 4)

3. A Star Is Born (PR: 1)

4. First Man (PR: 2)

5. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Leave No Trace (PR: 15)

7. Widows (PR: 6)

8. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 8)

9. Boy Erased (PR: 7)

10. Black Panther (PR: 9)

11. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 14)

12. The Sisters Brothers (PR: 12)

13. Disobedience (PR: 13)

14. The Front Runner (PR: 10)

15. Beautiful Boy (PR: 11)

Best Original Screenplay

1. The Favourite (PR: 1)

2. Green Book (PR: 3)

3. Roma (PR: 2)

4. Eighth Grade (PR: 5)

5. Vice (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. First Reformed (PR: 6)

7. On the Basis of Sex (PR: 14)

8. A Quiet Place (PR: 8)

9. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 7)

10. Ben Is Back (PR: 12)

11. Stan and Ollie (PR: 9)

12. At Eternity’s Gate (PR: 10)

13. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 11)

14. Hereditary (PR: 13)

15. Sorry to Bother You (PR: 15)

Todd’s 2017 Weekly Oscar Predictions: October 19th Edition

My weekly round of Thursday Oscar predictions in the eight major categories brings a couple of updates from the past week:

Woody Allen’s Wonder Wheel premiered at the New York Film Festival and the mixed reaction has caused it to roll all the way out of the top 25 possibilities for Best Picture. Kate Winslet still stands a decent shot at Best Actress in a very crowded race, but her nomination seems a bit less assured to me now. The film also takes a hit in the Original Screenplay derby.

It’s looking like The Leisure Seeker with Donald Sutherland will not be released until 2018. I’ve had the actor on the lower rungs of possibility for Best Actor, but until I see confirmation of an awards qualifying end of year release date, he’s out for now.

And with that, let’s get to it!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dunkirk (Previous Ranking: 1)

2. The Post (PR: 2)

3. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)

4. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 6)

5. Darkest Hour (PR: 4)

6. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 5)

7. Mudbound (PR: 7)

8. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 10)

9. The Florida Project (PR: 9)

Other Possibilities:

10. Detroit (PR: 12)

11. Last Flag Flying (PR: 11)

12. Phantom Thread (PR: 15)

13. The 15:17 to Paris (PR: 14)

14. Battle of the Sexes (PR: 13)

15. I, Tonya (PR: 17)

16. Downsizing (PR: 18)

17. The Greatest Showman (PR: 16)

18. Lady Bird (PR: 22)

19. All the Money in the World (PR: 20)

20. Get Out (PR: 19)

21. Wonderstruck (PR: 21)

22. The Big Sick (PR: 23)

23. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 25)

24. Wind River (PR: 24)

25. Molly’s Game (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Wonder Wheel 

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=6uefZOL41x4

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk (PR: 1)

2. Steven Spielberg, The Post (PR: 2)

3. Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water (PR: 3)

4. Luca Guadagnino, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 6)

5. Joe Wright, Darkest Hour (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Denis Villeneuve, Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 7)

7. Dee Rees, Mudbound (PR: 5)

8. Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 8)

9. Sean Baker, The Florida Project (PR: 10)

10. Kathryn Bigelow, Detroit (PR: 11)

11. Clint Eastwood, The 15:17 to Paris (PR: 12)

12. Richard Linklater, Last Flag Flying (PR: 14)

13. Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread (PR: 13)

14. Ridley Scott, All the Money in the World (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Woody Allen, Wonder Wheel

Jordan Peele, Get Out

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour (PR: 1)

2. Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread (PR: 2)

3. Timothee Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 5)

4. Hugh Jackman, The Greatest Showman (PR: 3)

5. Tom Hanks, The Post (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jake Gyllenhaal, Stronger (PR: 6)

7. Steve Carell, Last Flag Flying (PR: 7)

8. Andrew Garfield, Breathe (PR: 9)

9. Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq. (PR: 8)

10. James Franco, The Disaster Artist (PR: 10)

11. Jeremy Renner, Wind River (PR: 11)

12. Matt Damon, Downsizing (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Christian Bale, Hostiles (PR: 13)

14. Jason Clarke, Chappaquiddick (PR: 15)

15. Algee Smith, Detroit (PR: 14)

Dropped Out:

Donald Sutherland, The Leisure Seeker 

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Meryl Streep, The Post (PR: 1)

2. Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 2)

3. Margot Robbie, I, Tonya (PR: 3)

4. Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes (PR: 5)

5. Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Kate Winslet, Wonder Wheel (PR: 4)

7. Jessica Chastain, Molly’s Game (PR: 7)

8. Judi Dench, Victoria and Abdul (PR: 8)

9. Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird (PR: 9)

10. Brooklyn Prince, The Florida Project (PR: 11)

11. Daniela Vega, A Fantastic Woman (PR: 10)

12. Annette Bening, Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool (PR: 12)

13. Michelle Williams, All the Money in the World (PR: 15)

14. Diane Kruger, In the Fade (PR: 13)

15. Jennifer Lawrence, mother! (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Carey Mulligan, Mudbound

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project (PR: 1)

2. Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 2)

3. Armie Hammer, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 3)

4. Mark Rylance, Dunkirk (PR: 5)

5. Michael Shannon, The Shape of Water (PR: 8)

Other Possibilities:

6. Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 4)

7. Ben Mendelsohn, Darkest Hour (PR: 7)

8. Jason Mitchell, Mudbound (PR: 6)

9. Kevin Spacey, All the Money in the World (PR: 10)

10. Will Poulter, Detroit (PR: 9)

11. Christoph Waltz, Downsizing (PR: 11)

12. Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water (PR: 12)

13. Bryan Cranston, Last Flag Flying (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Patrick Stewart, Logan (PR: 13)

15. Garrett Hedlund, Mudbound (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Colin Farrell, The Beguiled

Jim Belushi, Wonder Wheel

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=B_8S5Ze8q48

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Allison Janney, I, Tonya (PR: 1)

2. Melissa Leo, Novitiate (PR: 3)

3. Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird (PR: 2)

4. Hong Chau, Downsizing (PR: 4)

5. Kristin Scott Thomas, Darkest Hour (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water (PR: 8)

7. Holly Hunter, The Big Sick (PR: 5)

8. Mary J. Blige, Mudbound (PR: 7)

9. Claire Foy, Breathe (PR: 10)

10. Julianne Moore, Wonderstruck (PR: 11)

11. Kirsten Dunst, The Beguiled (PR: 9)

12. Tatiana Maslany, Stronger (PR: 13)

13. Millicent Simmonds, Wonderstruck (PR: 12)

14. Sarah Paulson, The Post (PR: 15)

15. Michelle Pfeiffer, mother! (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Juno Temple, Wonder Wheel

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 1)

2. Mudbound (PR: 2)

3. Last Flag Flying (PR: 4)

4. Molly’s Game (PR: 3)

5. Wonderstruck (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 7)

7. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 8)

8. The 15:17 to Paris (PR: 9)

9. The Beguiled (PR: 6)

10. All the Money in the World (PR: 10)

11. Stronger (PR: 12)

12. The Disaster Artist (PR: 11)

13. The Death of Stalin (PR: 13)

14. Wonder (PR: 15)

15. First, They Killed My Father (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Thank You for Your Service

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 1)

2. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)

3. The Post (PR: 2)

4. The Florida Project (PR: 6)

5. The Big Sick (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

6. Darkest Hour (PR: 5)

7. Dunkirk (PR: 10)

8. Get Out (PR: 8)

9. Lady Bird (PR: 9)

10. I, Tonya (PR: 11)

11. Downsizing (PR: 12)

12. Phantom Thread (PR: 13)

13. Wind River (PR: 14)

14. Detroit (PR: 15)

15. Wonder Wheel (PR: 4)

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=zN9PDOoLAfg

I’ll be back next Thursday with a fresh round of predictions!

Todd’s 2017 Weekly Oscar Predictions: October 12th Edition

It’s Thursday and that means a fresh round of my weekly Oscar predictions in the eight major categories. Some thoughts from the past week:

I can’t help but wonder if the disappointing box office performance of Blade Runner 2049 will hurt its chances at nominations for Picture and Director. It certainly doesn’t help. I had the film and director Denis Villeneuve getting in last week. Today that changes, but we’ll see if it manages to rise back up in subsequent weeks.

Woody Allen’s Wonder Wheel is slated to premiere at the New York Film Festival tonight and that means reviews will be up. I have it getting nominations in Picture, Actress, and Original Screenplay right now, but lots of questions will be answered in a matter of hours.

Sean Baker’s The Florida Project seems to be garnering a lot of goodwill and for the first time, I have it taking a major jump into an actual nomination. We’ll see if that sticks.

Finally, it appears Steven Spielberg’s The Post will qualify for Original Screenplay and not Adapted as previously thought. That change has been reflected here.

Let’s get to it!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dunkirk (Previous Ranking: 1)

2. The Post (PR: 2)

3. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)

4. Darkest Hour (PR: 4)

5. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 6)

6. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 5)

7. Mudbound (PR: 7)

8. Wonder Wheel (PR: 9)

9. The Florida Project (PR: 19)

Other Possibilities:

10. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 8)

11. Last Flag Flying (PR: 12)

12. Detroit (PR: 13)

13. Battle of the Sexes (PR: 11)

14. The 15:17 to Paris (PR: 15)

15. Phantom Thread (PR: 10)

16. The Greatest Showman (PR: 14)

17. I, Tonya (PR: 17)

18. Downsizing (PR: 18)

19. Get Out (PR: 16)

20. All the Money in the World (PR: 21)

21. Wonderstruck (PR: 24)

22. Lady Bird (PR: 20)

23. The Big Sick (PR: 22)

24. Wind River (PR: Not Ranked)

25. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Goodbye Christopher Robin

Molly’s Game

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk (PR: 1)

2. Steven Spielberg, The Post (PR: 2)

3. Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water (PR: 3)

4. Joe Wright, Darkest Hour (PR: 4)

5. Dee Rees, Mudbound (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Luca Guadagnino, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 7)

7. Denis Villeneuve, Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 5)

8. Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 8)

9. Woody Allen, Wonder Wheel (PR: 9)

10. Sean Baker, The Florida Project (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Kathryn Bigelow, Detroit (PR: 11)

12. Clint Eastwood, The 15:17 to Paris (PR: 14)

13. Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread (PR: 10)

14. Richard Linklater, Last Flag Flying (PR: 12)

15. Jordan Peele, Get Out (PR: 13)

Dropped Out:

Jonathan Dayton and Valerie Faris, Battle of the Sexes

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour (PR: 1)

2. Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread (PR: 2)

3. Hugh Jackman, The Greatest Showman (PR: 4)

4. Tom Hanks, The Post (PR: 3)

5. Timothee Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jake Gyllenhaal, Stronger (PR: 6)

7. Steve Carell, Last Flag Flying (PR: 8)

8. Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel Esq. (PR: 7)

9. Andrew Garfield, Breathe (PR: 11)

10. James Franco, The Disaster Artist (PR: 9)

11. Donald Sutherland, The Leisure Seeker (PR: 10)

12. Jeremy Renner, Wind River (PR: 13)

13. Christian Bale, Hostiles (PR: 12)

14. Algee Smith, Detroit (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Jason Clarke, Chappaquiddick (PR: 15)

Dropped Out:

Domhnall Gleeson, Goodbye Christopher Robin

Best Actress 

Predicted Nominees:

1. Meryl Streep, The Post (PR: 1)

2. Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 2)

3. Margot Robbie, I, Tonya (PR: 3)

4. Kate Winslet, Wonder Wheel (PR: 4)

5. Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water (PR: 7)

7. Jessica Chastain, Molly’s Game (PR: 6)

8. Judi Dench, Victoria and Abdul (PR: 8)

9. Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird (PR: 9)

10. Daniela Vega, A Fantastic Woman (PR: 10)

11. Brooklyn Prince, The Florida Project (PR: 13)

12. Annette Bening, Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool (PR: 11)

13. Diane Kruger, In the Fade (PR: 12)

14. Carey Mulligan, Mudbound (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Michelle Williams, All the Money in the World (PR: 14)

Dropped Out:

Jennifer Lawrence, mother!

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project (PR: 1)

2. Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 2)

3. Armie Hammer, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 3)

4. Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 5)

5. Mark Rylance, Dunkirk (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jason Mitchell, Mudbound (PR: 7)

7. Ben Mendelsohn, Darkest Hour (PR: 4)

8. Michael Shannon, The Shape of Water (PR: 8)

9. Will Poulter, Detroit (PR: 11)

10. Kevin Spacey, All the Money in the World (PR: 9)

11. Christoph Waltz, Downsizing (PR: 13)

12. Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Patrick Stewart, Logan (PR: 12)

14. Colin Farrell, The Beguiled (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Jim Belushi, Wonder Wheel (PR: 15)

Dropped Out:

Bryan Cranston, Last Flag Flying

Laurence Fishburne, Last Flag Flying

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Allison Janney, I, Tonya (PR: 1)

2. Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird (PR: 4)

3. Melissa Leo, Novitiate (PR: 2)

4. Hong Chau, Downsizing (PR: 5)

5. Holly Hunter, The Big Sick (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

6. Kristin Scott Thomas, Darkest Hour (PR: 3)

7. Mary J. Blige, Mudbound (PR: 8)

8. Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water (PR: 6)

9. Kirsten Dunst, The Beguiled (PR: 9)

10. Claire Foy, Breathe (PR: 10)

11. Julianne Moore, Wonderstruck (PR: 11)

12. Millicent Simmonds, Wonderstruck (PR: 12)

13. Tatiana Maslany, Stronger (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Juno Temple, Wonder Wheel (PR: 13)

15. Sarah Paulson, The Post (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Margot Robbie, Goodbye Christopher Robin

Cicely Tyson, Last Flag Flying

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 2)

2. Mudbound (PR: 3)

3. Molly’s Game (PR: 5)

4. Last Flag Flying (PR: 4)

5. Wonderstruck (PR: 8)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Beguiled (PR: 10)

7. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 7)

8. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 6)

9. The 15:17 to Paris (PR: 12)

10. All the Money in the World (PR: 9)

11. The Disaster Artist (PR: 11)

12. Stronger (PR: 13)

13. The Death of Stalin (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Thank You for Your Service (PR: 15)

15. Wonder (PR: 14)

Dropped Out:

The Post (moved to Original Screenplay)

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 1)

2. The Post (PR: Not Ranked, moved from Adapted Screenplay)

3. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)

4. Wonder Wheel (PR: 4)

5. Darkest Hour (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Florida Project (PR: 11)

7. The Big Sick (PR: 5)

8. Get Out (PR: 6)

9. Lady Bird (PR: 9)

10. Dunkirk (PR: 7)

11. I, Tonya (PR: 8)

12. Downsizing (PR: 12)

13. Phantom Thread (PR: 13)

14. Wind River (PR: 14)

15. Detroit (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Greatest Showman

And there you have it! I’ll be back at it next Thursday with fresh predictions…

Todd’s 2017 Weekly Oscar Predictions: September 28th Edition

Back at it with my weekly Oscar predictions on the eight major categories and how those races are shaping up! In the next week, two big pieces of the Academy puzzle will come into focus. Last Flag Flying will screen this evening at the New York Film Festival and Blade Runner 2049 will have its reviews out as it opens a week from tomorrow (early word-of-mouth is strong). I’m also, for the first time, including Clint Eastwood’s The 15:17 to Paris, which hasn’t been confirmed for release by the end of the year (though it’s expected to be).

As for this week, we’ve seen some significant changes in the rankings at the top for both Actress and Supporting Actress. Again, I’ll note that just because I’m ranking something first doesn’t mean I think it wins. This is strictly guesstimates on chances of being nominated.

Let’s get to it!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dunkirk (Previous Ranking: 1)

2. The Post (PR: 2)

3. The Shape of Water (PR: 4)

4. Darkest Hour (PR: 3)

5. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 7)

6. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 6)

7. Mudbound (PR: 5)

8. Last Flag Flying (PR: 9)

9. Battle of the Sexes (PR: 8)

Other Possibilities:

10. Phantom Thread (PR: 11)

11. Wonder Wheel (PR: 12)

12. The Greatest Showman (PR: 10)

13. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 14)

14. Goodbye Christopher Robin (PR: 15)

15. The 15:17 to Paris (PR: Not Ranked)

16. Get Out (PR: 24)

17. All the Money in the World (PR: 17)

18. Detroit (PR: 16)

19. Downsizing (PR: 13)

20. The Big Sick (PR: 21)

21. Lady Bird (PR: 25)

22. I, Tonya (PR: 20)

23. The Florida Project (PR: 19)

24. Molly’s Game (PR: Not Ranked)

25. Wonderstruck (PR: 22)

Dropped Out:

Coco

mother!

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk (PR: 1)

2. Steven Spielberg, The Post (PR: 2)

3. Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water (PR: 3)

4. Joe Wright, Darkest Hour (PR: 4)

5. Dee Rees, Mudbound (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Luca Guadagnino, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 6)

7. Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 7)

8. Richard Linklater, Last Flag Flying (PR: 8)

9. Denis Villeneuve, Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 11)

10. Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread (PR: 10)

11. Woody Allen, Wonder Wheel (PR: 12)

12. Jonathan Dayton and Valerie Faris, Battle of the Sexes (PR: 9)

13. Jordan Peele, Get Out (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Michael Gracey, The Greatest Showman (PR: 15)

15. Clint Eastwood, The 15:17 to Paris (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Ridley Scott, All the Money in the World

Kathryn Bigelow, Detroit

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour (PR: 1)

2. Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread (PR: 2)

3. Tom Hanks, The Post (PR: 3)

4. Hugh Jackman, The Greatest Showman (PR: 4)

5. Jake Gyllenhaal, Stronger (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Steve Carell, Last Flag Flying (PR: 9)

7. Timothee Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 6)

8. Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq. (PR: 7)

9. Domhnall Gleeson, Goodbye Christopher Robin (PR: 8)

10. Andrew Garfield, Breathe (PR: 11)

11. Donald Sutherland, The Leisure Seeker (PR: 10)

12. James Franco, The Disaster Artist (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Jeremy Renner, Wind River (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Steve Carell, Battle of the Sexes (PR: 13)

15. Christian Bale, Hostiles (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Bryan Cranston, Last Flag Flying (reportedly competing in Supporting Actor)

Liam Neeson, Mark Felt: The Man Who Brought Down the White House

Matt Damon, Downsizing

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Meryl Streep, The Post (PR: 2)

2. Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 3)

3. Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes (PR: 1)

4. Kate Winslet, Wonder Wheel (PR: 4)

5. Margot Robbie, I, Tonya (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jessica Chastain, Molly’s Game (PR: 7)

7. Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water (PR: 6)

8. Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird (PR: 10)

9. Judi Dench, Victoria and Abdul (PR: 8)

10. Daniela Vega, A Fantastic Woman (PR: 9)

11. Diane Kruger, In the Fade (PR: 11)

12. Annette Bening, Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool (PR: 12)

13. Brooklyn Prince, The Florida Project (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Jennifer Lawrence, mother! (PR: 13)

15. Michelle Williams, All the Money in the World (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Carey Mulligan, Mudbound

Jane Fonda, Our Souls at Night

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project (PR: 1)

2. Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 2)

3. Armie Hammer, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 3)

4. Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 5)

5. Ben Mendelsohn, Darkest Hour (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jason Mitchell, Mudbound (PR: 6)

7. Mark Rylance, Dunkirk (PR: 8)

8. Bryan Cranston, Last Flag Flying (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Laurence Fishburne, Last Flag Flying (PR: 9)

10. Kevin Spacey, All the Money in the World (PR: 10)

11. Michael Shannon, The Shape of Water (PR: 7)

12. Will Poulter, Detroit (PR: 12)

13. Patrick Stewart, Logan (PR: 11)

14. Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water (PR: 15)

15. Dustin Hoffman, The Meyerowitz Stories (New and Selected) (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Garrett Hedlund, Mudbound

Christoph Waltz, Downsizing

Best Supporting Actress

1. Allison Janney, I, Tonya (PR: 2)

2. Melissa Leo, Novitiate (PR: 1)

3. Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird (PR: 6)

4. Hong Chau, Downsizing (PR: 4)

5. Kristin Scott Thomas, Darkest Hour (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Mary J. Blige, Mudbound (PR: 7)

7. Holly Hunter, The Big Sick (PR: 11)

8. Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water (PR: 5)

9. Claire Foy, Breathe (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Margot Robbie, Goodbye Christopher Robin (PR: 8)

11. Kirsten Dunst, The Beguiled (PR: 9)

12. Julianne Moore, Wonderstruck (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Millicent Simmonds, Wonderstruck (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Juno Temple, Wonder Wheel (PR: 14)

15. Tatiana Maslany, Stronger (PR: 11)

Dropped Out:

Julianne Moore, Suburbicon

Michelle Pfeiffer, mother!

Brooklyn Prince, The Florida Project (moved to Lead Actress)

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Post (PR: 1)

2. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 2)

3. Mudbound (PR: 3)

4. Last Flag Flying (PR: 4)

5. Molly’s Game (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. All the Money in the World (PR: 10)

7. Wonderstruck (PR: 5)

8. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 8)

9. The Beguiled (PR: 7)

10. The 15:17 to Paris (PR: Not Ranked)

11. The Disaster Artist (PR: 12)

12. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 11)

13. Stronger (PR: 9)

14. Wonder (PR: 13)

15. Thank You for Your Service (PR: 15)

Dropped Out:

Logan

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 1)

2. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)

3. Darkest Hour (PR: 2)

4. Wonder Wheel (PR: 4)

5. The Big Sick (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Get Out (PR: 7)

7. Battle of the Sexes (PR: 5)

8. Dunkirk (PR: 8)

9. Phantom Thread (PR: 12)

10. Lady Bird (PR: 10)

11. Downsizing (PR: 9)

12. The Florida Project (PR: 11)

13. Wind River (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Goodbye Christopher Robin (PR: 14)

15. The Greatest Showman (PR: 15)

Dropped Out:

Coco

And there you have it! Updates will be on the way next Thursday…