Tag: Carey Mulligan

2023 Oscar Predictions: May 29th Edition

As the month of May closes out, we arrive at my post Cannes forecast for the 96th Academy Awards! There were heavy hitters premiering in the south of France and buzz to discuss for several of them.

One year ago, Triangle of Sadness took the Palme d’Or (the fest’s top prize) and it eventually became a Best Picture contender at the Oscars. Ruben Östlund, Triangle‘s director who served as this year’s jury president, was also nominated for his behind the camera work.. In 2023, Justine Triet’s Anatomy of a Fall won the biggest honor. The French courtroom drama established itself as a major factor in International Feature Film and it is feasible that it could nab a slot in the eventual BP ten.

Other films that solidified their statuses as Academy bait? We start with Martin Scorsese’s Killers of the Flower Moon. The three and a half hour epic maintains its #1 position in Picture, Director, Supporting Actress (Lily Gladstone), and Supporting Actor after many raves at Cannes. However, the Supporting Actor in first is Robert De Niro and not Jesse Plemons, who was perched there two weeks ago. Reviews indicate it’s De Niro who should have the better shot.

Let’s be clear. My rankings right now reflect who I believe will be nominated and not necessarily who I think will win (it’s simply too early for that). Killers looks to be in a fantastic position for multiples nods after its unveiling.

Jonathan Glazer’s The Zone of Interest is right behind Moon as far as significant chatter out of the festival. The Holocaust drama could contend in Pic and Director. So could lead actress Sandra Hüller. Yet she might have an even stronger chance for her performance in Anatomy of a Fall.

For May December from Todd Haynes, reviews were quite solid. Its best chances at inclusion could be for its trio of actors Natalie Portman, Julianne Moore, and Charles Melton. We’re still not sure if Portman and Moore will be co-campaigned for lead. For now I’m slotting the former in Actress and the latter in supporting.

Wes Anderson’s Asteroid City drew plaudits though mixed reaction elsewhere. I’m skeptical of its chances (though it could play in down-the-line races like Production Design and Score).

Then there’s the features that dropped out of contention. Pixar’s Elemental won’t be the first studio title to vie for BP since Toy Story 3. It might be lucky to get an Animated Feature mention after some lackluster reaction. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny will not be a Top Gun: Maverick style hopeful for Oscars. And the fest’s opener Jeanne du Barry with Johnny Depp might get a Costume Design nod and that’s all.

In 2022, I made predictions for the 95th Academy Awards on this same day. It yielded 3 of the eventual 10 BP nominees with eventual winner Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Fabelmans, and Women Talking. Four others (Avatar: The Way of Water, Elvis, Tár, Top Gun: Maverick) were named in Other Possibilities. I wasn’t ready to anoint Triangle of Sadness despite its Cannes hardware. In Director – I correctly named the victorious Daniels for Everything Everywhere and Steven Spielberg for The Fabelmans. With Best Actress, I had Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere) who would take the gold. Cate Blanchett (Tár) and Ana de Armas (Blonde) were Other Possibilities. I will note that I had Michelle Williams (The Fabelmans) listed in supporting and she was nominated in lead. For Actor, winner Brendan Fraser (The Whale) were correctly called with Austin Butler (Elvis) listed. Both Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin) and Paul Mescal (Aftersun) were Other Possibilities. None of the five contenders in Supporting Actress were rightly placed. I did have winner Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere), her costar Stephanie Hsu, and Hong Chau (The Whale) in Other Possibilities. Finally, Ke Huy Quan (who took the statue) for Everything Everywhere was the only correctly tagged performer in Supporting Actor.

OK… deep breath. With all that context, let’s see where everything and everyone ranks…

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Killers of the Flower Moon (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. The Color Purple (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Past Lives (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (E)

5. Oppenheimer (PR: 5) (E)

6. Saltburn (PR: 7) (+1)

7. The Zone of Interest (PR: 15) (+8)

8. The Holdovers (PR: 8) (E)

9. Air (PR: 9) (E)

10. Poor Things (PR: 6) (-4)

Other Possibilities:

11. May December (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Maestro (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Challengers (PR: 14) (E)

15. Blitz (PR: 13) (-2)

16. Barbie (PR: 12) (-4)

17. Napoleon (PR: 18) (+1)

18. Rustin (PR: 20) (+2)

19. Flint Strong (PR: 17) (-2)

20. Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 16) (-4)

21. The Nickel Boys (PR: 21) (E)

22. The Book of Clarence (PR: 22) (E)

23. The Killer (PR: 19) (-4)

24. Asteroid City (PR: 25) (+1)

25. Ferrari (PR: 23) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Strangers

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Blitz Bazawule, The Color Purple (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: 14) (+9)

Other Possibilities:

6. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (PR: 6) (E)

7. Emerald Fennell, Saltburn (PR: 7) (E)

8. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 13) (+2)

12. Ben Affleck, Air (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Ridley Scott, Napoleon (PR: 15) (+2)

14. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 10) (-4)

15. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 12) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Todd Haynes, May December

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)

2. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 2) (E)

3. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)

4. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: Not Ranked)

5. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 7) (E)

8. Zendaya, Challengers (PR: 8) (E)

9. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 6) (-3)

10. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Kate Winslet, Lee (PR: 11) (E)

12. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 12) (E)

13. Sandra Hüller, The Zone of Interest (PR: 13) (E)

14. Ryan Destiny, Flint Strong (PR: 14) (E)

15. Jane Levy, A Little Prayer (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Regina King, Shirley

Amy Adams, Nightbitch

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 1) (E)

2. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Barry Keoghan, Saltburn (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Kingsley Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Teo Yoo, Past Lives (PR: 7) (E)

8. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Anthony Hopkins, Freud’s Last Session (PR: 11) (+2)

10. Joaquin Phoenix, Napoleon (PR: 10) (E)

11. David Strathairn, A Little Prayer (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Matt Damon, Air (PR: 9) (-3)

13. Ed Harris, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 13) (E)

14. Mike Faist, Challengers (PR: 12) (-2)

15. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 14) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Andrew Scott, Strangers

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 2) (E)

3. Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple (PR: 3) (E)

4. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 4) (E)

5. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Viola Davis, Air (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Rosamund Pike, Saltburn (PR: 7) (E)

8. Lashana Lynch, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Audra McDonald, Rustin (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Halle Bailey, The Color Purple (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Aunjanue Ellis, The Nickel Boys (PR: 11) (E)

12. Tilda Swinton, The Killer (PR: 10) (-2)

13. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 13) (E)

14. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 14) (E)

15. Vanessa Kirby, Napoleon (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Claire Foy, Strangers

Rebecca Ferguson, Dune: Part Two

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 4) (+3)

2. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)

3. Colman Domingo, The Color Purple (PR: 10) (+7)

4. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 8) (+4)

5. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilties:

6. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Richard E. Grant, Saltburn (PR: 11) (+3)

9. Ben Affleck, Air (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Jesse Plemons, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (-9)

11. Brian Tyree Henry, Flint Strong (PR: 13) (+2)

12. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (PR: 9) (-3)

13. Corey Hawkins, The Color Purple (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Glynn Turman, Rustin (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Ben Foster, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 14) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Jeremy Strong, Maestro

2023 Oscar Predictions: May 14th Edition

My second round of ranked predictions in the six major categories for the 96th Academy Awards comes two days before the 76th Annual Cannes Film Festival gets underway in the south of France. It will conclude on May 27th and you can expect my third round of forecasts shortly thereafter.

At Cannes, we will receive our first reviews and buzz for numerous heavy hitters. Those pictures include Martin Scorsese’s Killers of the Flower Moon, May December from Todd Haynes, Wes Anderson’s Asteroid City, Jonathan Glazer’s The Zone of Interest, Monster from Hirokazu Kore-eda, Firebrand with Alicia Vikander, Pixar’s Elemental, and Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny.

Here is my pre-Cannes outlook on Picture, Director, and the four acting derbies and let’s see how this gets shook up in a couple of weeks!

BEST PICTURE

Predicted Nominees:

1. Killers of the Flower Moon (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Past Lives (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Color Purple (PR: 3) (E)

4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (E)

5. Oppenheimer (PR: 5) (E)

6. Poor Things (PR: 6) (E)

7. Saltburn (PR: 7) (E)

8. The Holdovers (PR: 12) (+4)

9. Air (PR: 9) (E)

10. May December (PR: 10) (E)

Other Possibilities:

11. Maestro (PR: 11) (E)

12. Barbie (PR: 14) (+2)

13. Blitz (PR: 13) (E)

14. Challengers (PR: 8) (-6)

15. The Zone of Interest (PR: Not Ranked)

16. Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 15) (-1)

17. Flint Strong (PR: 19) (+2)

18. Napoleon (PR: 16) (-2)

19. The Killer (PR: 21) (+2)

20. Rustin (PR: 20) (E)

21. The Nickel Boys (PR: 24) (+3)

22. The Book of Clarence (PR: 17) (-5)

23. Ferrari (PR: 23) (E)

24. Strangers (PR: 18) (-6)

25. Asteroid City (PR: 22) (-3)

Dropped Out:

The Bikeriders

BEST DIRECTOR

Predicted Nominees:

1. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Blitz Bazawule, The Color Purple (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Emerald Fennell, Saltburn (PR: 7) (E)

8. Todd Haynes, May December (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 13) (+4)

10. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 10) (E)

11. Ben Affleck, Air (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 14) (+1)

14. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Ridley Scott, Napoleon (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Luca Guadagnino, Challengers

David Fincher, The Killer

BEST ACTRESS

Predicted Nominees:

1. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)

2. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 2) (E)

3. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 6) (E)

7. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Zendaya, Challengers (PR: 3) (-5)

9. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Regina King, Shirley (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Kate Winslet, Lee (PR: 15) (+4)

12. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 12) (E)

13. Sandra Hüller, The Zone of Interest (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Ryan Destiny, Flint Strong (PR: 14) (E)

15. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 10) (-5)

Dropped Out:

Aunjanue Ellis, The Nickel Boys (moved to Supporting)

BEST ACTOR

Predicted Nominees:

1 . Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 1) (E)

2. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Barry Keoghan, Saltburn (PR: 3) (E)

4. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 9) (+5)

5. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Teo Yoo, Past Lives (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Kingsley Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 8) (E)

9. Matt Damon, Air (PR: 14) (+5)

10. Joaquin Phoenix, Napoleon (PR: 10) (E)

11. Anthony Hopkins, Freud’s Last Session (PR: 11) (E)

12. Mike Faist, Challengers (PR: 5) (-7)

13. Ed Harris, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: Not Ranked)

14. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Andrew Scott, Strangers (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Andre Holland, The Actor

Paul Mescal, Strangers (moved to Supporting)

Adam Driver, Ferrari

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Predicted Nominees:

1. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 2) (E)

3. Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Viola Davis, Air (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 3) (-3)

7. Rosamund Pike, Saltburn (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Audra McDonald, Rustin (PR: 8) (E)

9. Lashana Lynch, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 9) (E)

10. Tilda Swinton, The Killer (PR: 13) (+3)

11. Aunjanue Ellis, The Nickel Boys (PR: Not Ranked, moved from lead)

12. Claire Foy, Strangers (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 10) (-3)

14. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Rebecca Ferguson, Dune: Part Two (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Jodie Comer, The Bikeriders

Moon Seung-ah, Past Lives

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Predicted Nominees:

1. Jesse Plemons, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)

3. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Ben Affleck, Air (PR: 12) (+5)

8. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (PR: 11) (+2)

10. Colman Domingo, The Color Purple (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Richard E. Grant, Saltburn (PR: 8) (-3)

12. Jeremy Strong, Maestro (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Brian Tyree Henry, Flint Strong (PR: 10) (-3)

14. Ben Foster, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Glynn Turman, Rustin (PR: 14) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Corey Hawkins, The Color Purple

Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer

Paul Dano, Dumb Money

2023 Oscar Predictions: April Edition (Best Actress)

Best Actress is up next in my first ranked projections for the 96th Academy Awards. If you missed my posts on the other three acting derbies, they are linked at the bottom.

Per usual, let’s dispense with the usual caveats. Some of these actresses might end up being supporting players (category placement is a mystery for some pictures this early in the calendar). Some of these movies could get pushed to 2024. Both Emma Stone (Poor Things) and Regina King (Shirley) were initially supposed to contend in 2022.

And, of course, some of these performances will fall by the wayside due to poor reaction while surprises will inevitably pop up. When I made my inaugural rankings for the previous ceremony, I had eventual winner Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once) listed in third position with Cate Blanchett (Tár) in Other Possibilities.

Here we go!

TODD’S BEST ACTOR PREDICTIONS

1. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple

2. Greta Lee, Past Lives

3. Zendaya, Challengers

4. Emma Stone, Poor Things

5. Natalie Portman, May December

Other Possibilities:

6. Margot Robbie, Barbie

7. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night

8. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz

9. Carey Mulligan, Maestro

10. Amy Adams, Nightbitch

11. Regina King, Shirley

12. Annette Bening, Nyad

13. Aunjanue Ellis, The Nickel Boys

14. Ryan Destiny, Flint Strong

15. Kate Winslet, Lee

2023 Oscar Predictions: April Edition (Best Actor)
2023 Oscar Predictions: April Edition (Best Supporting Actress)
2023 Oscar Predictions: April Edition (Best Supporting Actor)

2023 Oscar Predictions: March Edition (Best Actress)

My initial projections for the 96th Academy Awards arrives at Best Actress. If you missed my takes on the other three acting derbies, they can be accessed at the bottom of the post.

As I’ve mentioned in the other write-ups, this is simply a super early snapshot of the possibilities. A year ago in my first forecast for the 95th Oscars, none of the five actresses I had pegged in this race ended up being nominated. However, the pictures for two of them (Emma Stone for Poor Things and Regina King in Shirley) were pushed back to this year and you can find their names below yet again. Three of the eventual nominees for 2022 were listed in Other Possibilities: eventual winner Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once), Cate Blanchett (Tár), and Ana de Armas (Blonde).

I’ll have Director and the big prize Picture posted tomorrow!

TODD’S MARCH 2023 OSCAR PREDICTIONS: BEST ACTRESS

Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple

Greta Lee, Past Lives

Natalie Portman, May December

Margot Robbie, Barbie

Emma Stone, Poor Things

Other Possibilities:

Marisa Abela, Back to Black

Amy Adams, Nightbitch

Annette Bening, Nyad

Regina King, Shirley

Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night

Carey Mulligan, Maestro

Saoirse Ronan, Blitz

Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla

Kate Winslet, Lee

Zendaya, Challengers

2023 Oscar Predictions: March Edition (Best Actor)
2023 Oscar Predictions: March Edition (Best Supporting Actress)
2023 Oscar Predictions: March Edition (Best Supporting Actor)

2023 Oscar Predictions: March Edition (Best Supporting Actress)

My impossibly early and speculative first Oscar predictions for the 96th Academy Awards arrives at Best Supporting Actress! If you missed my post regarding the Supporting Actor hopefuls, you can find it here:

2023 Oscar Predictions: March Edition (Best Supporting Actor)

Before you know it, I’ll moving to my weekly (or every two weeks) forecasts for the main races. When I did these inaugural picks in this category last year, it correctly identified one eventual nominee (Michelle Williams in The Fabelmans) that made the quintet. However, she did so in lead Actress. Another (Hong Chau for The Whale) was listed in Other Possibilities.

Let’s get to it and Best Actor is up tomorrow!

TODD’S MARCH 2023 OSCAR PREDICTIONS: BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple

Viola Davis, Air

Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon

Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple

Julianne Moore, May December

Other Possibilities:

Jodie Foster, Nyad

Claire Foy, Strangers

Vanessa Kirby, Napoleon

Lashana Lynch, Untitled Bob Marley Movie

Audra McDonald, Rustin

Carey Mulligan, Saltburn

Margaret Qualley, Poor Things

Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers

Amy Ryan, Beau is Afraid

Moon Seung-ah, Past Lives

Best Picture 2020: The Final Five

We have reached 2020 in my posts speculating on a specific piece of Oscar history. As awards followers are aware, 2009 saw the Academy expand the Best Picture category from five movies to ten. That lasted for two years and in 2011, it switched to anywhere from 5-10 with 8 or 9 as the magic numbers for several years. In 2021, the number reverted back to a set ten.

What if that hadn’t happened? What if the BP derby had stayed at a quintet? What pictures would have made the cut?

2020 is a tricky year to consider. As we all know, it was a year dominated by the COVID-19 pandemic. Many of us were working from home and theaters were essentially shuttered for the majority of the year.

Beyond the challenging, tragic, and unprecedented news events of 2020, it was just a strange year for motion pictures. Eight pictures contended for the big prize. I have the leading nominee (with 10) missing the BP cut. The next most nominated film had 6 mentions… and there’s 6 of them. The other BP contender had 5.

My point? Whittling these 8 down to 5 is not easy. Considering it took BP, Director (Chloe Zhao, the second female ever to win), and Actress (Frances McDormand), we can safely reserve a spot for Nomadland. As for the rest? Let’s get into it!

The Father

Florian Zeller’s devastasting drama about Alzheimer’s missed a nod in Director, but Anthony Hopkins landed his second Actor statue over the late Chadwick Boseman in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, who was the frontrunner. Zeller did win Adapted Screenplay and this was also up for Supporting Actress (Olivia Colman), Film Editing, and Production Design.

Does It Make the Final Five?

Yes. Its two wins not only give me confidence of its inclusion in a quintet, but it could be argued this was runner-up to Nomadland.

Judas and the Black Messiah

Daniel Kaluuya won Supporting Actor for his performance as Fred Hampton in Shaka King’s historical drama. Costar Lakeith Stanfield was up in the same race and it was nominated for Original Screenplay and Cinematography. A second statue was given to H.E.R. for her original song “Fight for You”.

Does It Make the Final Five?

No but I certainly struggled with this one. The lack of directing and editing noms have it on the outside looking in.

Mank

This is where it gets complicated. David Fincher’s jaded Netflix aired look at Old Hollywood easily led the program with 10 mentions and it won Cinematography and Production Design. Fincher was also in contention for his behind the camera work. Other nods went to Gary Oldman for Actor, Amanda Seyfried in Supporting Actress, Costume Design, Makeup and Hairstyling, Original Score, and Sound.

Does It Make the Final Five?

Surprisingly enough… I’m saying no. Despite the haul, it is the only one of the 8 nominees not up for screenplay. Furthermore the Film Editing omission feels significant. It certainly isn’t normal to project the leader not making the final five. However, rules are meant to be broken.

Minari

Lee Isaac Chung also garnered a directing spot in that quintet while Youn yuh-Jung was the Supporting Actress recipient in this family drama. Other nods: Actor (Steven Yeun), Original Screenplay, and Original Score.

Does It Make the Final Five?

Yes though I went back and forth. This seemed to gather strength as the season wore on and not just with yuh-Jung. I think it squeaks in.

Promising Young Woman

Emerald Fennell was up for director and won Adapted Screenplay for this revenge dramedy. Carey Mulligan made the Actress cut (and may have been second to McDormand) and it was in for Film Editing.

Does It Make the Final Five?

Yes. The victory in Adapted Screenplay over four other BP hopefuls helps solidify that decision.

Sound of Metal

The impressive haul for the indie drama is Riz Ahmed in Actor, Paul Raci in Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay, and wins in Film Editing and Sound.

Does It Make the Final Five?

Yes though I again went back and forth. While director Darius Marder was left out, it’s the Editing and Sound combo that give it an edge over the three that got left out.

The Trial of the Chicago 7

7‘s six nods came (in addition to BP) in Supporting Actor (Sacha Baron Cohen), Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Film Editing, and Original Song. The Aaron Sorkin political drama is the only BP vier not to take home a single trophy.

Does It Make the Final Five?

No though I struggled again. This Netflix pic undoubtedly didn’t match awards expectations after it was once seen as the on paper favorite. The 0 for 6 performance make it easier to elevate some of the others.

And there you have it. That means my 2020 vision of the Final Five is:

The Father

Minari

Nomadland

Promising Young Woman

Sound of Metal

2021 will be be up soon! If you missed my entries covering 2009-19, you can find them here:

Best Picture 2009: The Final Five
Best Picture 2010: The Final Five
Best Picture 2011: The Final Five
Best Picture 2012: The Final Five
Best Picture 2013: The Final Five
Best Picture 2014: The Final Five
Best Picture 2015: The Final Five
Best Picture 2016: The Final Five
Best Picture 2017: The Final Five
Best Picture 2018: The Final Five
Best Picture 2019: The Final Five

76th BAFTA Film Awards Winner Predictions

The BAFTAs, Britain’s version of the Academy Awards, airs this Sunday (February 19) and it can often serve as a preview for where the Oscars will go. That holds true in same races more than others like the acting derbies.

In the past decade, 32 of the 40 winners in Actress, Actor, Supporting Actress, and Supporting Actor became Oscar recipients. That’s 8 out of the past 10 Actresses, 9 for 10 in Actor, 7 for 10 in Supporting Actress, and 8 for 10 in Supporting Actor.

It’s a different story for the grand prize. A mere 3 of 10 Best Film winners at BAFTA are BP victors at the Oscars – Argo, 12 Years a Slave, and Nomadland. The percentage goes up considerably for Director at 7/10.

I’m going to keep it simple here. I’ll give you the nominees and my predicted winner and a runner-up. Let’s get to it!

Best Film

All Quiet on the Western Front, The Banshees of Inisherin, Elvis, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Tár

Predicted Winner: The Banshees of Inisherin

Runner-Up: Everything Everywhere All at Once

Best Director

Edward Berger (All Quiet on the Western Front), Park Chan-wook (Decision to Leave), Daniels (Everything Everywhere All at Once), Todd Field (Tár), Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin)

Predicted Winner: Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Runner-Up: Todd Field, Tár

Best Actress in a Leading Role

Cate Blanchett (Tár), Viola Davis (The Woman King), Ana de Armas (Blonde), Danielle Deadwyler (Till), Emma Thompson (Good Luck to You, Leo Grande), Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once)

Predicted Winner: Cate Blanchett, Tár

Runner-Up: Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Best Actor in a Leading Role

Austin Butler (Elvis), Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin), Brendan Fraser (The Whale), Daryl McCormack (Good Luck to You, Leo Grande), Paul Mescal (Aftersun), Bill Nighy (Living)

Predicted Winner: Austin Butler, Elvis

Runner-Up: Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin

Best Actress in a Supporting Role

Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever), Hong Chau (The Whale), Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin), Jamie Lee Curtis (Everywhere All at Once), Dolly de Leon (Triangle of Sadness), Carey Mulligan (She Said)

Predicted Winner: Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin

Runner-Up: Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Best Actor in a Supporting Role

Brendan Gleeson (The Banshees of Inisherin), Barry Keoghan (The Banshees of Inisherin), Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All at Once), Eddie Redmayne (The Good Nurse), Albrecht Schuch (All Quiet on the Western Front), Micheal Ward (Empire of Light)

Predicted Winner: Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Runner-Up: Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin

Best Original Screenplay

The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Fabelmans, Tár, Triangle of Sadness

Predicted Winner: The Banshees of Inisherin

Runner-Up: Everything Everywhere All at Once

Best Adapted Screenplay

All Quiet on the Western Front, Living, The Quiet Girl, She Said, The Whale

Predicted Winner: Living

Runner-Up: All Quiet on the Western Front

Best Animated Film

Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, Turning Red

Predicted Winner: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

Runner-Up: Marcel the Shell with Shoes On

Best Film Not in the English Language

All Quiet on the Western Front, Argentina, 1985, Corsage, Decision to Leave, The Quiet Girl

Predicted Winner: All Quiet on the Western Front

Runner-Up: The Quiet Girl

Best Documentary

All That Breathes, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, Fire of Love, Moonage Daydream, Navalny

Predicted Winner: Fire of Love

Runner-Up: Navalny

Best Casting

Aftersun, All Quiet on the Western Front, Elvis, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Triangle of Sadness

Predicted Winner: Everything Everywhere All at Once

Runner-Up: Elvis

Best Cinematography

All Quiet on the Western Front, The Batman, Elvis, Empire of Light, Top Gun: Maverick

Predicted Winner: All Quiet on the Western Front

Runner-Up: Elvis

Best Costume Design

All Quiet on the Western Front, Amsterdam, Babylon, Elvis, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris

Predicted Winner: Elvis

Runner-Up: Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris

Best Editing

All Quiet on the Western Front, The Banshees of Inisherin, Elvis, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Top Gun: Maverick

Predicted Winner: Everything Everywhere All at Once

Runner-Up: Top Gun: Maverick

Best Make-Up & Hair

All Quiet on the Western Front, The Batman, Elvis, Roald Dahl’s Matilda the Musical, The Whale

Predicted Winner: The Whale

Runner-Up: Elvis

Best Original Score

All Quiet on the Western Front, Babylon, The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

Predicted Winner: Babylon

Runner-Up: All Quiet on the Western Front

Best Production Design

All Quiet on the Western Front, Babylon, The Batman, Elvis, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

Predicted Winner: All Quiet on the Western Front

Runner-Up: Babylon

Best Sound

All Quiet on the Western Front, Avatar: The Way of Water, Elvis, Tár, Top Gun: Maverick

Predicted Winner: All Quiet on the Western Front

Runner-Up: Top Gun: Maverick

Best Special Visual Effects

All Quiet on the Western Front, Avatar: The Way of Water, The Batman, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Top Gun: Maverick

Predicted Winner: Avatar: The Way of Water

Runner-Up: Top Gun: Maverick

Outstanding British Film

Aftersun, The Banshees of Inisherin, Brian and Charles, Empire of Light, Good Luck to You, Leo Grande, Living, Roald Dahl’s Matilda the Musical, See How They Run, The Swimmers, The Wonder

Predicted Winner: The Banshees of Inisherin

Runner-Up: Aftersun

Outstanding Debut by a British Writer, Director or Producer

Aftersun, Blue Jean, Electric Malady, Good Luck to You, Leo Grande, Rebellion

Predicted Winner: Aftersun

Runner-Up: Good Luck to You, Leo Grande

That equates to these movies generating these numbers in terms of wins:

4 Wins

All Quiet on the Western Front, The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once

2 Wins

Elvis

1 Win

Aftersun, Avatar: The Way of Water, Babylon, Fire of Love, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Living, Tár, The Whale

I’ll have a recap up on Sunday!

76th BAFTA Nominee Reactions

Five days ahead of the Academy Awards nominations, our friends across the pond have revealed their picks. The BAFTAs (Great Britain’s Oscars equivalent) take place March 13th with Richard E. Grant hosting.

After the long lists of potential contenders were revealed, it was an impressive showing for Edward Berger’s WWI epic All Quiet on the Western Front. Today’s nods solidified its status as a favorite of this branch with a terrific 14 nominations. In short, it showed up everywhere it could’ve with the exception of Best Actor.

While Quiet made noise, it was the opposite for Women Talking and Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery. Both were blanked. In particular, each were expected to contend in Adapted Screenplay (Talking is seen as a potential winner at Oscar). The Fabelmans only managed one mention. I projected that though not in the race where it materialized.

I went 83/119 on my forecasts. Let’s walk through each category with some quick takes.

Best Film

All Quiet on the Western Front, The Banshees of Inisherin, Elvis, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Tár

How I Did: 4/5

No shockers here as Elvis got in over Triangle of Sadness. Given the performance by Quiet today, it may battle it out with Banshees (which did well this morning) and Everything for the grand prize.

Director

Edward Berger (All Quiet on the Western Front), Park Chan-wook (Decision to Leave), Daniels (Everything Everywhere All at Once), Todd Field (Tár), Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin), Gina Prince-Bythewood (The Woman King)

How I Did: 4/6

My runner-up Chan-wook making the cut was not a surprise. Prince-Bythewood getting in is. They’re in over Alice Diop (Saint Omer) who was my own surprise pick and Charlotte Wells (Aftersun). It’s worth noting that Aftersun had a rather subpar day. We already knew Steven Spielberg (The Fabelmans) was out since he didn’t make the long list. This might be Berger v. Daniels.

Actressk

Cate Blanchett (Tár), Viola Davis (The Woman King), Danielle Deadwyler (Till), Ana de Armas (Blonde), Emma Thompson (Good Luck to You, Leo Grande), Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once)

How I Did: 5/6

Deadwyler over Lesley Manville in Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris. As projected, this is another high profile omission for Michelle Williams in The Fabelmans. Her Oscar hopes are shakier by the minute.

Actor

Austin Butler (Elvis), Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin), Brendan Fraser (The Whale), Daryl McCormack (Good Luck to You, Leo Grande), Paul Mescal (Aftersun), Bill Nighy (Living)

How I Did: 5/6

McCormack unexpectedly pops up instead of Felix Kammerer – the one miss for All Quiet. Noteworthy that Tom Cruise couldn’t land here for Top Gun: Maverick (with a so-so haul of 4 tech nods).

Supporting Actress

Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever), Hong Chau (The Whale), Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin), Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere All at Once), Dolly De Leon (Triangle of Sadness), Carey Mulligan (She Said)

How I Did: 4/6

The question here is whether Bassett keeps the victory streak alive or whether Condon, De Leon, or one of the others can disrupt a sweep. Curtis and Mulligan surface over my projected picks of Lashana Lynch (The Woman King) and Janelle Monáe (Glass Onion).

Supporting Actor

Brendan Gleeson (The Banshees of Inisherin), Barry Keoghan (The Banshees of Inisherin), Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All at Once), Eddie Redmayne (The Good Nurse), Albrecht Schuch (All Quiet on the Western Front), Micheal Ward (Empire of Light)

How I Did: 4/6

Another call for Redmayne. He and Schuch join this sextet instead of Woody Harrelson (Triangle of Sadness) and Brad Pitt (Babylon). Quan is the favorite.

Original Screenplay

The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Fabelmans, Tár, Triangle of Sadness

How I Did: 4/5

The sole nod for The Fabelmans is here and I thought Aftersun would be in the quintet instead. Will Banshees or Everything emerge?

Adapted Screenplay

All Quiet on the Western Front, Living, The Quiet Girl, She Said, The Whale

How I Did: 2/5

Ouch. As mentioned, no Glass Onion or Women Talking and I also had Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio listed. All Quiet, The Quiet Girl, and The Quiet Whale, errr just The Whale, were the trio I wasn’t counting on. Good luck selecting a winner here. I’m thinking Living at the moment.

Outstanding British Film

Aftersun, The Banshees of Inisherin, Brian and Charles, Empire of Light, Good Luck to You, Leo Grande, Living, Roald Dahl’s Matilda the Musical, See How They Run, The Swimmers, The Wonder

How I Did: 8/10

The only race with 10 contenders, one would think Banshees (as the only Best Film nominee) is out front. I had Blue Jean and Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris and not See How They Run or The Swimmers.

Outstanding Debut a British Writer, Director, or Producer

Aftersun, Blue Jean, Electric Malady, Good Luck to You, Leo Grande, Rebellion

How I Did: 3/5

Malady and Rebellion over Emily and Wayfinder. Before this morning, I would’ve thought Aftersun was a slam dunk. It likely still takes this, but Grande could threaten given its over performance.

Film Not in the English Language

All Quiet on the Western Front, Argentina, 1985, Corsage, Decision to Leave, The Quiet Girl

How I Did: 4/5

Had EO and not Corsage. The only way All Quiet doesn’t take this in a blowout is if it wins Best Film and the voters want to choose something else. That probably won’t occur, but if so, Decision to Leave is viable considering the directing nod.

Animated Film

Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, Turning Red

How I Did: 4/4

I won’t pat myself too hard on the back since the only category with a quartet wasn’t much of a challenge. Picking a recipient isn’t either as Pinocchio should prevail.

Documentary

All That Breathes, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, Fire of Love, Moonage Daydream, Navalny

How I Did: 3/5

I admittedly went with a couple spoilers in Hallelujah: Leonard Cohen, a Journey, a Song and The Ghost of Richard Harris. Fire and Navalny are present instead for what could be a preview of the Oscar five (or at least 4/5).

Casting

Aftersun, All Quiet on the Western Front, Elvis, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Triangle of Sadness

How I Did: 3/5

Chose Banshees and Fabelmans and not All Quiet (get used to hearing that) or Elvis.

Cinematography

All Quiet on the Western Front, The Batman, Elvis, Empire of Light, Top Gun: Maverick

How I Did: 3/5

Had Athena and Tár as opposed to The Batman and Elvis.

Costume Design

All Quiet on the Western Front, Amsterdam, Babylon, Elvis, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris

How I Did: 3/5

All Quiet and Amsterdam are suited for competition instead of Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (a notable snub) and Roald Dahl’s Matilda the Musical.

Editing

All Quiet on the Western Front, The Banshees of Inisherin, Elvis, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Top Gun: Maverick

How I Did: 4/5

Thought the Brits might select Moonage Daydream but it’s Banshees instead.

Make Up and Hair

All Quiet on the Western Front, The Batman, Elvis, Roald Dahl’s Matilda the Musical, The Whale

Didn’t have All Quiet or Matilda. Did have Amsterdam and Babylon.

Original Score

All Quiet on the Western Front, Babylon, The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

Two of the year’s most acclaimed scores (Empire of Light, Women Talking) fall out with All Quiet and Everything in.

Production Design

All Quiet on the Western Front, Babylon, The Batman, Elvis, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

How I Did: 2/5

Ouch Part II. Only correctly called Babylon and Elvis (the duo most likely to win). Incorrectly had Avatar: The Way of Water, Banshees, and Empire of Light.

Sound

All Quiet on the Western Front, Avatar: The Way of Water, Elvis, Tár, Top Gun: Maverick

How I Did: 4/5

Tár in, The Batman out.

Special Visual Effects

All Quiet on the Western Front, Avatar: The Way of Water, The Batman, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Top Gun: Maverick

All Quiet in over Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore. Despite a meager haul for Avatar, it should manage a victory in this race.

For those keeping score, that means these pictures garnered these numbers of nominations:

14 Nominations

All Quiet on the Western Front

10 Nominations

The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once

9 Nominations

Elvis

5 Nominations

Tár

4 Nominations

Aftersun, The Batman, Good Luck to You, Leo Grande, Top Gun: Maverick, The Whale

3 Nominations

Babylon, Empire of Light, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Living, Triangle of Sadness

2 Nominations

Avatar: The Way of Water, Decision to Leave, The Quiet Girl, Roald Dahl’s Matilda the Musical, She Said, The Woman King

1 Nomination

All That Breathes, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, Amsterdam, Argentina, 1985, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Blonde, Blue Jean, Brian and Charles, Corsage, Electric Malady, The Fabelmans, Fire of Love, The Good Nurse, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, Moonage Daydream, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris, Navalny, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, Rebellion, See How They Run, The Swimmers, Till, Turning Red, The Wonder

I’ll have final predictions up shortly before the ceremony’s airdate!

95th Academy Awards Predictions: January 16th Edition

It has been two weeks since my last Oscar predictions and a lot has transpired since. The Golden Globes and Critics Choice Awards aired. SAG nominations came out. So did the BAFTA shortlists and PGA and DGA contenders.

All of this has made the puzzle a little clearer. Yet the fact remains – Oscar will Oscar when noms are released in a week. This is my penultimate forecast. Final predictions will arrive this weekend. Tonight’s estimates are your last look at rankings. It will simply be the listed picks a few days from now with commentary and a runner-up projection in each feature film category.

Here’s the latest developments as we are almost at the end of the line:

The Whale rises as it is back in my top 10 BP nominees. Women Talking falls out. A similar scenario in Supporting Actress as The Whale‘s Hong Chau is in over Women Talking‘s Claire Foy. After victories at the Globes and Critics Choice, Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever) vaults over Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin) for the #1 slot in Supporting Actress.

On the other hand, I’m putting Austin Butler (Elvis) back in first over Brendan Fraser (The Whale). This is essentially a coin flip with Colin Farrell from Banshees as a legit spoiler.

Edward Berger (All Quiet on the Western Front) returns to the directorial quintet and James Cameron (Avatar: The Way of Water) is out.

In Actress, Viola Davis (The Woman King) at last makes the cut with Margot Robbie (Babylon) dropping. That’s not the only news in this derby. I almost went with Ana de Armas (Blonde) instead of Davis. And there’s the recent development of Andrea Riseborough’s online campaign for the micro budget indie drama To Leslie. Numerous performers, including Cate Blanchett, have boarded the Riseborough bandwagon. Two weeks ago – she was on no one’s radar screen. Now the buzz is enough to put her in 8th.

You can read all the movement below and look for those FINAL predictions this weekend!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees

1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 3) (E)

4. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 4) (E)

5. Tár (PR: 5) (E)

6. Elvis (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 6) (-1)

8. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 10) (+2)

9. The Whale (PR: 12) (+3)

10. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 9) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

11. Babylon (PR: 11) (E)

12. RRR (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Women Talking (PR: 8) (-5)

14. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 14) (E)

15. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Woman King

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (E)

2. Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)

3. Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 3) (E)

4. Todd Field, Tár (PR: 4) (E)

5. Edward Berger, All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Joseph Kosinski, Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 10) (+3)

8. S.S. Rajamouli, RRR (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Ruben Ostlund, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Baz Luhrmann, Elvis (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Sarah Polley, Women Talking

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Cate Blanchett, Tár (PR: 1) (E)

2. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)

3. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (E)

4. Danielle Deadwyler, Till (PR: 4) (E)

5. Viola Davis, The Woman King (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Ana de Armas, Blonde (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Margot Robbie, Babylon (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Andrea Riseborough, To Leslie (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Olivia Colman, Empire of Light (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Naomi Ackie, Whitney Houston: I Wanna Dance with Somebody (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Jennifer Lawrence, Causeway

Emma Thompson, Good Luck to You, Leo Grande

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Austin Butler, Elvis (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Brendan Fraser, The Whale (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 3) (E)

4. Bill Nighy, Living (PR: 4) (E)

5. Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Paul Mescal, Aftersun (PR: 6) (E)

7. Hugh Jackman, The Son (PR: 7) (E)

8. Adam Sandler, Hustle (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Tom Hanks, A Man Called Otto (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Jeremy Pope, The Inspection (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Gabriel LaBelle, The Fabelmans

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 4) (+3)

2. Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Hong Chau, The Whale (PR: 9) (+5)

5. Dolly De Leon, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Jessie Buckley, Women Talking (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Janelle Monáe, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Claire Foy, Women Talking (PR: 5) (-4)

10. Carey Mulligan, She Said (PR: 10) (E)

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)

2. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (E)

3. Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 3) (E)

4. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans (PR: 4) (E)

5. Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Brad Pitt, Babylon (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Eddie Redmayne, The Good Nurse (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Brian Tyree Henry, Causeway (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Ben Whishaw, Women Talking (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Tom Hanks, Elvis (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (E)

4. Tár (PR: 4) (E)

5. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Aftersun (PR: 6) (E)

7. Babylon (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Decision to Leave (PR: 9) (+1)

9. The Menu (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Armageddon Time (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Bardo

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Women Talking (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Whale (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 2) (-1)

4. She Said (PR: 4) (E)

5. Living (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities

6. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 7) (E)

8. White Noise (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 9) (E)

10. Bones and All (PR: 10) (E)

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 1) (E)

2. Marcel the Shell with Shoes On (PR: 2) (E)

3. Turning Red (PR: 3) (E)

4. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish (PR: 4) (E)

5. Wendell and Wild (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Bad Guys (PR: 6) (E)

7. My Father’s Dragon (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Strange World (PR: 8) (E)

9. Inu-Oh (PR: 9) (E)

10. Lightyear (PR: 10) (E)

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 1) (E)

2. Decision to Leave (PR: 2) (E)

3. Close (PR: 6) (+3)

4. Argentina, 1985 (PR: 4) (E)

5. EO (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Saint Omer (PR: 3) (-3)

7. Bardo (PR: 5) (-2)

8. The Quiet Girl (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Joyland (PR: 9) (E)

10. Holy Spider (PR: 8) (-2)

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (PR: 1) (E)

2. All That Breathes (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Fire of Love (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Navalny (PR: 2) (-2)

5. The Territory (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Descendant (PR: 6) (E)

7. Moonage Daydream (PR: 7) (E)

8. Retrograde (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Bad Axe (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Last Flight Home (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Janes

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)

2. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (E)

4. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 4) (E)

5. Empire of Light (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Babylon (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Elvis (PR: Not Ranked)

8. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 7) (-1)

9. The Batman (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Nope (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Bardo

Everything Everywhere All at Once

Tár

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Elvis (PR: 1) (E)

2. Babylon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Woman King (PR: 4) (E)

5. Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Fabelmans (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Living (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 8) (E)

9. Corsage (PR: 9) (E)

10. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Banshees of Inisherin

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)

2. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 2) (E)

3. Elvis (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 9) (+3)

7. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Babylon (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Tár (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Women Talking

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Elvis (PR: 2 (+1)

2. The Whale (PR: 1) (-1)

3. The Batman (PR: 3) (E)

4. Babylon (PR: 4) (E)

5. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 6) (E)

7. Amsterdam (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Blonde (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Emancipation (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Crimes of the Future (PR: 10) (E)

Best Original Score

Predicted Nomnees:

1. The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (E)

2. Babylon (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Women Talking (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 4) (-2)

7. The Woman King (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 6) (-3)

10. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “Naatu Naatu” from RRR (PR: 2) (+1)

2. “Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (-1)

3. “Lift Me Up” from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 3) (E)

4. “Ciao Papa” from Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 4) (E)

5. “Applause” from Tell It Like a Woman (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. “This Is a Life” from Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 5) (-1)

7. “Carolina” from Where the Crawdads Sing (PR: 7) (E)

8. “New Body Rhumba” from White Noise (PR: 8) (E)

9. “Good Afternoon” from Spirited (PR: Not Ranked)

10. “Stand Up” from Till (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

“Nothing is Lost (You Give Me Strength)” from Avatar: The Way of Water

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Elvis (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 2) (-2)

5. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Fabelmans (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 9) (E)

10. The Batman (PR: 10) (E)

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)

2. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 2) (E)

3. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Elvis (PR: 3) (-1)

5. The Batman (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 6) (E)

7. Babylon (PR: 7) (E)

8. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 8) (E)

9. Moonage Daydream (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 1) (E)

2. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Batman (PR: 3) (E)

4. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness (PR: 4) (E)

5. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 6) (E)

7. Nope (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Thirteen Lives (PR: 8) (E)

9. Jurassic World: Dominion (PR: 9) (E)

10. Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore (PR: 10) (E)

That equates to these movies garnering these numbers in terms of nominations:

9 Nominations

The Fabelmans

8 Nominations

Everything Everywhere All at Once

7 Nominations

All Quiet on the Western Front, The Banshees of Inisherin, Elvis, Top Gun: Maverick

6 Nominations

Avatar: The Way of Water

5 Nominations

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, The Whale

4 Nominations

Babylon, Tár

3 Nominations

The Batman, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Triangle of Sadness

2 Nominations

Living, The Woman King, Women Talking

1 Nominations

All That Breathes, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, Argentina, 1985, Close, Decision to Leave, Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, Empire of Light, EO, Fire of Love, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris, Navalny, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, RRR, She Said, Tell It Like a Woman, The Territory, Till, Turning Red, Wendell and Wild

29th Screen Actors Guild Awards Nomination Predictions

Another significant piece of the Oscar prognosticating puzzle is put together on Wednesday when nominations for the 29th Screen Actors Guild (SAG) Awards are dropped. The ceremony’s main prize, it’s important to note, is not Best Picture but Best Ensemble. That means a correlation from the Oscar BP and the top race here is not apples to apples. It is worth noting that half of the last 10 SAG Ensemble victors (Argo, Birdman, Spotlight, Parasite, CODA) did go on to win BP from the Academy. On the other hand, three recent BPs (The Shape of Water, Green Book, Nomadland) didn’t make the SAG quintet at all.

Let’s go through all six categories one by one with my picks and a runner-up call, shall we?

Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture

There are plenty of possibilities including box office hits like Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Elvis, and Top Gun: Maverick. For Panther, the original won Ensemble in 2018 so the sequel materializing is feasible. I wouldn’t discount the sprawling cast of Babylon though middling reviews could hurt it. It’s tempting to pick Glass Onion but I’m hesitant since Knives Out was snubbed in 2019.

Everything Everywhere All at Once and The Fabelmans seem safe. Despite the small call sheet for The Banshees of Inisherin (with just four significant roles), I could see the SAG branch honoring it. I’m also liking The Woman King‘s chances. Women Talking is perhaps the biggest question mark. It has underperformed with precursors. A couple of months ago, I’d have considered it a potential frontrunner to win. Now I wonder if it makes it at all. Nevertheless – here’s my take:

Predicted Nominees:

The Banshees of Inisherin

Everything Everywhere All at Once

The Fabelmans

The Woman King

Women Talking

Runner-Up: Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role

In the previous decade, SAG in Actress has matched the Academy 4/5 on six occasions and 3/5 on four. There are no perfect correlations. SAG has shown they will throw in a shocker – Jennifer Aniston in Cake, Sarah Silverman for I Smile Back or Emily Blunt in The Girl on the Train are recent examples. If there’s one here, look out for Naomi Ackie (Whitney Houston: I Wanna Dance with Somebody).

Margot Robbie (Babylon) is currently the one I’ve got in the Academy five (for the moment) that I don’t have here. Ana de Armas (Blonde) is a real threat. If she makes this quintet, look for her Oscar stock to soar. With those possibilities mentioned, my choices are…

Predicted Nominees:

Cate Blanchett, Tár

Viola Davis, The Woman King

Danielle Deadwyler, Till

Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans

Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Runner-Up: Ana de Armas, Blonde

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role

Austin Butler (Elvis), Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin), and Brendan Fraser (The Whale) should all be safe. Bill Nighy (Living) is fourth though I suspect there’s a better chance at SAG leaving him off than the Academy. Then there’s that five spot. It could be Tom Cruise (Top Gun: Maverick), Tom Hanks (A Man Called Otto), Hugh Jackman (The Son), or Paul Mescal (Aftersun). Take your pick. I’m leaning toward the star of the year’s biggest hit. On a side note, there’s been a SAG/Oscar match of 5/5 for the previous two cycles.

Predicted Nominees:

Austin Butler, Elvis

Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick

Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin

Brendan Fraser, The Whale

Bill Nighy, Living

Runner-Up: Paul Mescal, Aftersun

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role

Last year was an anomaly when just 2 of the SAG nominees (Ariana DeBose for West Side Story and The Power of the Dog‘s Kirsten Dunst) scored Oscar nods. The magic number is usually 3 or 4. The wide open nature of this race has been discussed a lot on the blog. Beyond my picks and runner-up, don’t discount Dolly De Leon (Triangle of Sadness), Claire Foy (Women Talking), Stephanie Hsu (Everything Everywhere All at Once), Janelle Monae (Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery), and Carey Mulligan (She Said).

Predicted Nominees:

Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Jessie Buckley, Women Talking

Hong Chau, The Whale

Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin

Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Runner-Up: Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role

Like Supporting Actress last year, there was only a 2 for 5 match with Troy Kotsur in CODA and Kodi Smit-McPhee in The Power of the Dog. Usually it’s 4. For 2022, I believe only Ke Huy Quan and Brendan Gleeson are safe assumptions. The remaining three slots should be some combo of Paul Dano (The Fabelmans), Tom Hanks (Elvis), Brian Tyree Henry (Causeway), Judd Hirsch (The Fabelmans), Brian Tyree Henry (Causeway), Brad Pitt (Babylon), and Eddie Redmayne (The Good Nurse) sorting it out.

Predicted Nominees:

Paul Dano, The Fabelmans

Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin

Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin

Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Eddie Redmayne, The Good Nurse

Runner-Up: Brian Tyree Henry, Causeway

Outstanding Performance by a Stunt Ensemble

Don’t discount The Batman or Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, but my quintet is as follows…

Predicted Nominees:

The Batman

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Everything Everywhere All at Once

Top Gun: Maverick

The Woman King

Runner-Up: RRR

That equates to these movies generating these numbers:

5 Nominations

The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once

3 Nominations

The Fabelmans, The Woman King

2 Nominations

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Top Gun: Maverick, The Whale, Women Talking

1 Nomination

The Batman, Elvis, The Good Nurse, Living, Tár, Till

On Wednesday evening you can expect a recap of what happens after noms are revealed!