***UPDATED: With this particular blog post, I will updating it every week to reflect how I continue to perform with each weekend’s new release. So that means you can pretty much ignore the next paragraph talking about After Earth and Now You See Me opening. Simply scroll down to the main list below to see how I’m doin’ with the predictin’:
With this weekend’s debuts of After Earth and Now You See Me, they will mark the 69th and 70th films I’ve made opening weekend predictions for. This is since I started doing box office projections on the blog starting during the second weekend of November when Skyfall debuted.
Based on a suggestion from a reader, it got me thinking. How have I done so far? I am grateful and pleased that my box office predictions posts have been the most-viewed items on my little blog, so it feels time to take inventory on my successes… and failures.
Before I give you the facts, it’s important to note that the bigger a picture opens, the easier it is to be off by more. Pretty simple concept… if I think a movie will open at $6 million, the chances of it doing $4M or $8M is very likely. This means I’m only off $2 million. If a movie is expected to open around $80 million, the chances of it doing $70M or $90M increase, meaning I’m ten million off.
With that said, I’ve broken down categories by how much I was off. You can judge yourself on how I’ve done up to this juncture. From now on, I will give a monthly report on the blog assessing my prognosticating performances for that time frame.
Predictions Within $2 million
Playing for Keeps
Prediction: $7M. Actual Gross: $5.8M. Difference: $1.2M
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Prediction: $84.8M. Actual Gross: $84.6M. Difference: $182K.
Prediction: $17.6M. Actual Gross: $15.6M. Difference: $2M.
Prediction: $2.6M. Actual Gross: $2.8M. Difference: $268K.
Prediction: $4.2M. Actual Gross: $4M. Difference: $150K.
Prediction: $6.1M. Actual Gross: $7M. Difference: $908K.
Prediction: $5.8M. Actual Gross: $4.8M. Difference: $994K.
Prediction: $20.5M. Actual Gross: $20.4M. Difference: $146K.
Stand Up Guys
Prediction: $1.2M. Actual Gross: $1.5M. Difference: $286K.
Prediction: $32.3M. Actual Gross: $33.3M. Difference: $1M
Prediction: $13.3M. Actual Gross: $13.2M. Difference: $132K.
Prediction: $2.3M. Actual Gross: $470K. Difference: $1.7M.
Jack the Giant Slayer
Prediction: $25.4M. Actual Gross: $27.2M. Difference: $1.8M.
G.I. Joe: Retaliation
Prediction: $49.5M. Actual Gross: $51M. Difference: $1.5M.
Dead Man Down
Prediction: $5.9M. Actual Gross: $5.3M. Difference: $554K.
Prediction: $6.8M. Actual Gross: $4.9M. Difference: $1.9M.
Prediction: $44.3M. Actual Gross: $43.6M. Difference: $660K.
Prediction: $7.6M. Actual Gross: $6.2M. Difference: $1.4M.
Iron Man 3
Prediction: $172.4M. Actual Gross: $174.1M. Difference: $1.7M.
Summing up this group, that makes 19 out of 68 (28%) that I got within two million dollars of opening weekend gross. I must admit my feather in the cap moments would be The Hobbit, The Croods, Iron Man 3, Warm Bodies, Snitch, and G.I. Joe. The Rock’s Snitch is my best to date with a difference of $132,000.
Predictions within $2.1-$4 million
Prediction: $18.1M. Actual Gross: $21M. Difference: $2.9M.
Killing Them Softly
Prediction: $9.6M. Actual Gross: $6.8M. Difference: $2.8M.
Prediction: $20.7M. Actual Gross: $17.1M. Difference: $3.6M.
Bullet to the Head
Prediction: $8M. Actual Gross: $4.5M. Difference: $3.4M.
Prediction: $11.5M. Actual Gross: $9.3M. Difference: $2.1M.
Prediction: $10.6M. Actual Gross: $8.2M. Difference: $2.4M.
The Last Exorcism II
Prediction: $10.6M. Actual Gross: $7.7M. Difference: $2.8M.
Olympus Has Fallen
Prediction: $27.8M. Actual Gross: $30.4M. Difference: $2.5M.
Tyler Perry’s Temptation: Confessions of a Marriage Counselor
Prediction: $19.2M. Actual Gross: $21.6M. Difference: $2.4M.
Prediction: $24.7M. Actual Gross: $27.5M. Difference: $2.7M.
Pain and Gain
Prediction: $23.8M. Actual Gross: $20M. Difference: $3.8M.
The Big Wedding
Prediction: $11.2M. Actual Gross: $7.5M. Difference: $3.6M.
Prediction: $45.5M. Actual Gross: $42.8M. Difference: $2.6M.
Prediction: $20.7M. Actual Gross: $17.3M. Difference: $3.3M.
This category represents 13 out of 68 entries or 19%. I was happy with my Olympus Has Fallen and 42 predictions. I guessed higher than many others on both titles. Both made more than my projection, but I was in the correct ballpark.
Predictions within $4.1-$7 million
Prediction: $82.3M. Actual Gross: $88.4M. Difference: $6.1M.
Life of Pi
Prediction: $24.4M. Actual Gross: $30.6M. Difference: $6.1M.
This Is 40
Prediction: $15.7M. Actual Gross: $11.6M. Difference: $4.1M.
The Guilt Trip
Prediction: $11.6M. Actual Gross: $7.3M. Difference: $4.2M.
Zero Dark Thirty
Prediction: $29.1M. Actual Gross: $24.4M. Difference: $4.7M.
Texas Chainsaw 3D
Prediction: $16.1M. Actual Gross: $21.7M. Difference: $5.6M.
The Last Stand
Prediction: $14M. Actual Gross: $7.2M. Difference: $6.7M.
Prediction: $15.3M. Actual Gross: $9M. Difference: $5.7M.
Hansel&Gretel: Witch Hunters
Prediction: $13M. Actual Gross: $19.7M. Difference: $6.6M.
Escape from Planet Earth
Prediction: $14.2M. Actual Gross: $21.1M. Difference: $6.9M.
The Incredible Burt Wonderstone
Prediction: $16.3M. Actual Gross: $10.2M. Difference: $6.1M.
Prediction: $15.7M. Actual Gross: $10.6M. Difference: $5M.
Jurassic Park 3D
Prediction: $12.8M. Actual Gross: $18.6M. Difference: $5.8M.
Prediction: $19.8M. Actual Gross: $25.8M. Difference: $5.9M.
Prediction: $32.8M. Actual Gross: $38.2M. Difference: $5.4M.
Observations: I gave way too much credit for Arnold Schwarzenegger’s comeback vehicle The Last Stand, as well as comedies This Is 40 and The Guilt Trip. I underestimated Leatherface, Evil Dead, and Hansel and Gretel doing their witch huntin’. This group of films is 15 out of the 68 predictions… 22%. By the way, if you’re reading these and thinking my math doesn’t add up in certain situations, it actually does when factoring in the full number. I’m not listing the exact dollar amount – just to the closet one hundred thousandth.
Predictions within $7.1-$10M
Prediction: $14M. Actual Gross: $21.7M. Difference: $7.7M.
Monsters Inc. 3D
Prediction: $16.2M. Actual Gross: $6.3M. Difference: $9.9M.
A Haunted House
Prediction: $10.8M. Actual Gross: $18.1M. Difference: $7.3M.
A Good Day to Die Hard
Prediction: $45.6M. Actual Gross: $36.9M. Difference: $8.7M.
Prediction: $19.4M. Actual Gross: $11.5M. Difference: $7.9M.
21 and Over
Prediction: $18 million. Actual Gross: $8.8M. Difference: $9.2M.
Oz the Great and Powerful
Prediction: $87.4M. Actual Gross: $79.1M. Difference: $8.2M.
Prediction: $9.2M. Actual Gross: $17.1M. Difference: $7.9M.
Scary Movie 5
Prediction: $22.6M. Actual Gross: $14.2M. Difference: $8.4M.
The Great Gatsby
Prediction: $41.3M. Actual Gross: $50.1M. Difference: $8.7M.
Prediction: $24.9M. Actual Gross: $34M. Difference: $9.1M.
Definitely didn’t give Halle Berry’s The Call or A Haunted House with Marlon Wayans enough credit at all. Gave the sputtering Die Hard franchise too much credit. And while I was $8M off on Oz the Great and Powerful, I was actually pretty pleased with that projection. This group is 10 out of the 68 predictions, or 15%.
Predictions within $10.1-$15 million
The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 2
Prediction: $153.8M. Actual Gross: $141.1M. Difference: $12.7M.
Prediction: $17.7M. Actual Gross: $29.6M. Difference: $11.9M.
Prediction: $18.2M. Actual Gross: $32.1M. Difference: $13.9M.
Prediction: $22.1M. Actual Gross: $34.6M. Difference: $12.4M.
Tyler Perry Presents Peeples
Prediction: $18.5M. Actual Gross: $4.6M. Difference: $13.8M.
Prediction: $106.8M. Actual Gross: $117M. Difference: $10.2M.
Prediction: $39.1M. Actual Gross: $27.5M. Difference: $11.5M.
Clearly, Identity Thief and Mama hit bigger than I thought they would. And I was simply way off with Peeples, which I figured would have a nice opening due to Tyler Perry’s name in the title. Wrong. This group is 6 out of the 68 titles – 9%.
Predictions within $15.1-$20 million
Prediction: $44.6M. Actual Gross: $64M. Difference: $19.4M.
The Hangover Part III
Prediction: $77.4M. Actual Gross: $62M. Difference: $15.3M.
Now You See Me
Prediction: $14.2M. Actual Gross: $29.3M. Difference: $15.1M.
Two titles here – or 3%. I failed the Christmas box office predictions and went way under. This is what screwed my Django projection. And The Wolf Pack were even softer than I expected.
Predictions off by over $20 million
Rise of the Guardians
Prediction: $53.8M. Actual Gross: $32.3M. Difference: $21.5M.
Prediction: $47.1M. Actual Gross: $67.4M. Difference: $20.3M.
Star Trek Into Darkness
Prediction: $106.2. Actual Gross: $83.7M. Difference: $22.4M.
So the return of Kirk and Spock marks my most inaccurate prediction so far, but I don’t even feel bad about it because everyone went way over on this one. Les Miserables, like Django, is an example of underestimating a Xmas opener. And Rise of the Guardians flat out didn’t reach the levels of most animated titles, though it did hold up well in subsequent weekends. Three of 68 in this final category – 4%.
This means that of the 68 opening weekend predictions, I got 47% within $4 million or less of the actual gross. Within $7 million – the number is 69%. Within $10 million – I’m at 84%.
So there you have it. Draw your own conclusions. And if you’ve made it all the way through lengthy post, allow me to plug http://www.boxofficeace.com – a site I happily participate on where you (yes YOU) can make your own predictions!