Box Office Predictions: May 2-4

This weekend the summer 2014 movie season officially gets underway and it’s mega-sequel The Amazing Spider-Man 2 leading the charge. You can read my detailed prediction post on its prospects here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/04/27/the-amazing-spider-man-2-box-office-prediction/

Week after week, we will see huge profile releases after another. As for weekend #1, Spidey should easily out gross the rest of the top five combined and then some. As for spring holdovers, I look for last weekend’s 1-4 (The Other Woman, Captain America: The Winter Soldier, Heaven Is for Real, Rio 2) to all drop in the high 30s-mid 40s range.

And with that, my estimates for the weekend’s top five:

1. The Amazing Spider-Man 2

Predicted Gross: $90.1 million

2. The Other Woman

Predicted Gross: $14.3 million (representing a drop of 42%)

3. Captain America: The Winter Soldier

Predicted Gross: $9 million (representing a drop of 44%)

4. Heaven Is for Real

Predicted Gross: $8.5 million (representing a drop of 41%)

5. Rio 2

Predicted Gross: $8.3 million (representing a drop of 39%)

Box Office Results (April 25-27)

As for the final weekend of spring, The Other Woman with Cameron Diaz debuted very solidly with $24.7 million, outshining my $18.1M estimate. The rom com clearly hit with its female target audience.

Holdovers occupied slots 2-4. Captain America: The Winter Soldier took second with $16.2 in its fourth weekend, above my $14.3M prediction. Heaven Is for Real held up well in its second weekend for third with $14.3 million, topping my $13M projection. Rio 2 was fourth with $13.8 million, just below my $14.5M prediction.

The Paul Walker action pic Brick Mansions opened in fifth with a weak $9.5 million – not reaching my $12.3M estimate. And the horror flick The Quiet Ones absolutely tanked with only $3.8 million for a seventh place showing, well below my generous $9.4M guess.

That’s all for now! I’ll be back soon as we see just how well Spidey does!

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The Amazing Spider-Man 2 Box Office Prediction

Two summers back, the Spidey franchise was rebooted with Andrew Garfield in the title role and summer 2014 kicks off with its sequel The Amazing Spider-Man 2 on Friday. Emma Stone is back as Gwen Stacy as is Sally Field as Aunt May, with a trio of villains joining the mix. They are Jamie Foxx as Electro, Paul Giamatti as Russian mobster Aleksei Sytsevich, and Dane DeHaan as Harry Osborn, who will likely become the Green Goblin at some point. Marc Webb, who helmed the original, is back behind the camera.

Interestingly, among the four current Spidey flicks, each has grossed less than the previous one. Here’s the stats:

Spider-Man (2002): $403 million

Spider-Man 2 (2004): $373 million

Spider-Man 3 (2007): $336 million

The Amazing Spider-Man (2012): $262 million

Judging the opening gross of this sequel based on its 2012 predecessor is a bit tricky because it opened over the Fourth of July weekend. While its Friday to Sunday gross was $62 million, it rolled out over a six-day period beginning on a Tuesday with $137 million.

I think the real question here is whether or not The Amazing Spider-Man 2 will have the biggest superhero opening so far this year. In other words – can it top the $95 million opening that Captain America: The Winter Soldier accomplished a month ago?

As I see it, the possibility of Spidey topping $100 million out of the gate is real. It pretty much has the weekend to itself and has the advantage of being the first high-profile summer 2014 blockbuster. On the other hand, the original wasn’t exactly beloved and the low end opening possibility to me would be around $75 million – which would be considered a bit of a letdown.

My spidey sense tells me this won’t quite reach what Captain America did, but it’ll come close.

The Amazing Spider-Man 2 opening weekend prediction: $90.1 million

14 For ’14: Todd’s Most Anticipated 2014 Summer Movies

This coming Friday – the 2014 Summer Movie Season will officially swing into action with The Amazing Spider-Man 2 and for the next four months, we’ll be treated to dozens of high-profile product from the studios. Per usual, there’s plenty of sequels – in addition to a rather high helping of comedies looking to break through.

This leads me to my personal Top 14 for ’14 of the Summer Movie Season. Let’s count them down from 14 to my #1, shall we?

14. Get On Up (August 1)

Chadwick Boseman found success last year playing Jackie Robinson in 42 and he’s got another historical figure on his plate here – R&B legend James Brown. Directing duties are handled by Tate Taylor, who helmed the sleeper hit The Help in 2011.

13. Transformers: Age of Extinction (June 27)

This could well end up the highest grossing film of the summer, but it’s a little low here because I frankly haven’t been impressed with this franchise. Michael Bay is still behind the camera, but Shia LeBeouf is out and Mark Wahlberg is in as the star.

12. Edge of Tomorrow (June 6)

Science fiction and Tom Cruise can work really well (Minority Report) or just OK (Oblivion). We’ll see how this one fares from Mr. and Mrs. Smith director Doug Liman. Emily Blunt and Bill Paxton costar.

11. Maleficent (May 30)

Angelina Jolie stars in the live action retelling of the Sleeping Beauty villainess title character with Elle Fanning as Cinderella. Two summers back, Snow White and the Huntsman scored with audiences and this one probably will, too.

10. Jupiter Ascending (July 18)

Since the Wachowskis made The Matrix fifteen years ago, it’s been a bit downhill with that weak third Matrix entry and Speed Racer. Their last feature, Cloud Atlas, was a commercial disappointment though I quite liked it. The $150 million sci-fi saga starring Mila Kunis and Channing Tatum certainly has my attention.

9. Sin City: A Dame To Kill For (August 22)

I’m a huge fan of Robert Rodgriguez’s 2005 original based on the Frank Miller graphic novel and I’ve been waiting a long time for this sequel. The impressive cast includes Jessica Alba, Bruce Willis, Mickey Rourke, Joseph Gordon-Levitt, Josh Brolin, and Eva Green.

8. 22 Jump Street (June 13)

Double Oscar nominee Jonah Hill and Channing Tatum return to reprise their roles from the 2012 comedy that earned $138 million domestically. I felt the original worked very well and hopefully they’ll keep it up here.

7. The Amazing Spider-Man 2 (May 2)

This is probably higher on other’s lists, but it’s not top five material for me solely because I thought the first one was rather mediocre. Andrew Garfield and Emma Stone return alongside Jamie Foxx and Paul Giamatti as villains.

6. Neighbors (May 9)

Advance word is that this Seth Rogen/Zac Efron comedy is really funny and I see big box office results for this one. The trailer is a riot.

5. A Million Ways to Die in the West (May 3o)

However, my top anticipated comedy edge goes to this – the second comedic feature from “Family Guy” creator Seth MacFarlane. You may have heard of his first – a little summer blockbuster from two years back called Ted. MacFarlane stars alongside Charlize Theron, Neil Patrick Harris, Amanda Seyfried, Liam Neeson, and Sarah Silverman.

4. Guardians of the Galaxy (August 1)

A Marvel Studios production based on characters that aren’t near as well known as other comic book heroes is looked at as a slight gamble box office wise. That can said of Guardians of the Galaxy, which stars Chris Pratt, Zoe Saldana, and Benicio del Toro. It was also said for 2008’s Iron Man and that turned out, um, pretty well.

3. Godzilla (May 16)

Yes, the Roland Emmerich directed tale of the giant green monster was a massive letdown. However, this one’s got some truly awesome trailers and it stars Bryan Cranston – AKA Walter Freakin White.

2. Dawn of the Planet of the Apes (July 11)

When Rise of the Planet of the Apes debuted three years back, it marked one of the greatest popcorn flicks in recent memory so I’m all in to see how they follow it up. Andy Serkis returns for his brilliant motion capture performance as Caesar with Gary Oldman and Jason Clarke also in the mix.

1. X-Men: Days of Future Past (May 23)

Maker of the first two rock solid X-Men flicks Bryan Singer (let’s just leave his personal issues aside for now, shall we?) is back as the casts of the original franchise and the new First Class franchise mix together in this time travel tale. That means Patrick Stewart, Ian McKellen, Hugh Jackman, James McAvoy, Michael Fassbender, Halle Berry, and Jennifer Lawrence herself are all back and that’s enough to make this #1 on my must see list.

And there you have, folks! See you at the movies this summer.

 

Box Office Predictions: April 25-27

This is the final weekend of the movie calendar before the May onslaught of potential summer blockbusters arrive, including The Amazing Spider-Man 2, Godzilla, X-Men: Days of Future Past, and Maleficent. On Friday, we’ll see a trio of new titles debut: the rom com The Other Woman, action thriller Brick Mansions, and horror flick The Quiet Ones. You can find my detailed prediction posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/04/21/the-other-woman-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/04/21/brick-mansions-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/04/21/the-quiet-ones-box-office-prediction/

As for holdovers, I’m expecting drops in the mid 30s-40s for last weekend’s champ Captain America: The Winter Soldier and runners-up Heaven Is for Real and Rio 2. If that is indeed the case, it could mean fifth and sixth place debuts for Brick Mansions and The Quiet Ones, unless they perform better than expected. I believe The Other Woman should generate enough business to be #1, though if it disappoints it could open the door for a fourth weekend at the top spot for Captain America or possibly a rise to #1 for Rio 2. And with that, my top six predictions for the weekend:

1. The Other Woman

Predicted Gross: $18.1 million

2. Rio 2

Predicted Gross: $14.5 million (representing a drop of 34%)

3. Captain America: The Winter Soldier

Predicted Gross: $14.3 million (representing a drop of 44%)

4. Heaven Is for Real

Predicted Gross: $13 million (representing a drop of 42%)

5. Brick Mansions

Predicted Gross: $12.3 million

6. The Quiet Ones

Predicted Gross: $9.4 million

Box Office Results (April 18-20)

Well… when you mess up, I guess do it big time and, boy, did I ever with Transcendence, the Johnny Depp sci fi thriller. It absolutely tanked at the box office with a terrible $10.8 million fourth place opening. My prediction? $30.8 million. Ouch. This is yet another flop for Depp after disappointments like Dark Shadows and The Lone Ranger. Poor reviews and a weak marketing campaign hurt it and I mistakenly believed Depp’s name would lead it to a respectable opening. Far from it.

Captain America: The Winter Soldier managed a three-peat at #1 over Easter Weekend with $25.5 million, holding better than my $18.9 million. Another surprise besides the Transcendence disaster was the fantastic start for the faith-based Heaven Is for Real. The pic grossed $22.5 million for the three day weekend and $29.5 million from its five day Wednesday start, trumping my respective predictions of $17.5M and $24.8M. This spring has been a great one for Christian themed pictures, including Son of God, God’s Not Dead, and Noah. #3 went to Rio 2 in its sophomore frame with $22.1 million, a bit under my $25.9M projection.

Two more weak debuts marked the weekend – the horror sequel A Haunted House 2 flopped with $8.8 million for fifth place, below my $10.6M projection. Disney’s nature doc Bears failed to bring in an audience with a meager $4.7 million for tenth place. I predicted $8.8 million.

I’ll try to do better next time, my blog reading friends!

The Quiet Ones Box Office Prediction

This Friday brings the British horror flick The Quiet Ones, which comes from the same studio that had a hit a couple of years back with The Woman in Black. Starring “Mad Men” actor Jared Harris and up and comer Sam Claflin, the pic arrives just two weeks following the muted $12 million debut of Oculus. It’s hard at this point to see The Quiet Ones topping that.

Like last summer’s smash hit The Conjuring, this one purports to being based on a true story and its set in the 1970s. Plot similarities aside – don’t expect a Conjuring size success here. I actually believe The Quiet Ones will struggle to reach double digits and will probably come in third out of the three new entries this weekend, after The Other Woman and Brick Mansions. Quiet indeed.

The Quiet Ones opening weekend prediction: $9.4 million

For my The Other Woman prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/04/21/the-other-woman-box-office-prediction/

For my Brick Mansions prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/04/21/brick-mansions-box-office-prediction/

Brick Mansions Box Office Prediction

The late Paul Walker headlines the action thriller Brick Mansions which debuts this Friday. This is one of the star’s final roles before his tragic auto accident that claimed his life in the fall of 2013 and it features a script from Luc Besson and costars Wu-Tang Clan founder RZA.

The marketing for Mansions has ramped up a bit in the last couple of weeks and it will be interesting to see how Walker’s presence translates into box office dollars. Truth be told, Mr. Walker was never much of a box office draw outside of the massive Fast and Furious franchise and there’s nothing much about this film’s TV spots that make it look noteworthy.

My gut feeling is that audiences will, for the most part, wait until the seventh Fast flick in 2015 to bid farewell to the late actor and Brick Mansions should have a debut in the low double digits.

Brick Mansions opening weekend prediction: $12.3 million

For my The Other Woman prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/04/21/the-other-woman-box-office-prediction/

For my The Quiet Ones prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/04/21/the-quiet-ones-box-office-prediction/

The Other Woman Box Office Prediction

Cameron Diaz and romantic comedies are usually a formula that mix well together at the box office and this Friday, we’ll see if that pans out again with The Other Woman. In the past few years, Diaz has seen What Happens in Vegas debut to $20 million and Bad Teacher get off to a $31 million start. Both of those pics had higher profile summer release slots, while this one gets the late April slot which marks the last weekend before the onslaught of tent pole summer releases hit.

The Other Woman features costars Leslie Mann, Kate Upton, and rapper Nicki Minaj in a tale of women bonded together by one cheating hubby. I haven’t seen a whole lot of marketing for it – but to be fair – I probably don’t frequent the channels where this is being touted. Reviews should pretty much be a non-factor as it currently stands at 45% on Rotten Tomatoes – certainly not great, but not terrible either.

As I see it, The Other Woman is unlikely to reach the heights of the two previously mentioned Diaz movies, but I’ll say it gets just under $20M and that should be enough to make it #1 this weekend before Spider-Man swoops in and kicks off the blockbuster season.

The Other Woman opening weekend prediction: $18.1 million

For my Brick Mansions prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/04/21/brick-mansions-box-office-prediction/

For my The Quiet Ones prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/04/21/the-quiet-ones-box-office-prediction/

Box Office Predictions: April 18-20

On this coming Easter weekend, four new titles make their debut at multiplexes: the Johnny Depp sci-fi thriller Transcendence, the Christian themed drama Heaven Is for Real, the horror parody sequel A Haunted House 2, and the Disney nature doc Bears. You can find my individual prediction posts on each right here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/04/13/transcendence-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/04/13/heaven-is-for-real-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/04/13/a-haunted-house-2-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/04/13/bears-box-office-prediction/

My predictions reflect a belief that Transcendence should open first, though it may face competition from Rio 2 in its second weekend. That animated sequel should suffer a rather small decline that isn’t as steep as last weekend’s returning champ Captain America: The Winter Soldier.

Heaven Is for Real could be poised for a solid opening with its shrewd Easter debut while I see fairly disappointing results for A Haunted House 2 and Bears.

And with that – my top six predictions for the holiday weekend:

1. Transcendence

Predicted Gross: $30.8 million

2. Rio 2

Predicted Gross: $25.9 million (representing a drop of 34%)

3. Captain America: The Winter Soldier

Predicted Gross: $18.9 million (representing a drop of 54%)

4. Heaven Is for Real

Predicted Gross: $17.5 million (predicted five-day opening of $24.8 million)

5. A Haunted House 2

Predicted Gross: $10.6 million

6. Bears

Predicted Gross: $8.9 million

Box Office Results (April 11-13)

As predicted, Captain America: The Winter Soldier held onto the top spot in its sophomore weekend with $41.2 million, a bit below my $45.3M prediction. The animated Rio 2 opened right on pace with its predecessor with $39.3 million (the first did $39.2M out of the gate), slightly below my $41.7M estimate. The horror flick Oculus had a middling start with $12 million for third place, just above my $11M projection while Kevin Costner’s Draft Day had a weak fourth place debut with only $9.7 million, under my $13.2M estimate. Noah rounded out the top five with $7.5 million, on target with my $7.4M prediction.

That’s all for now, folks! Until next time.

Bears Box Office Prediction

Two years ago around Earth Day, Disney found success with their nature documentary Chimpanzee which grossed over $10 million in its debut. This year the studio will attempt to replicate that success with Bears, a doc narrated by John C. Reilly.

The pic follows a family of grizzly bears in Alaska and is primed to open four days before Earth Day. Marketed primarily to kids, Bears does face competition from Rio 2 in its sophomore weekend. If Bears were to reach double digits like Chimpanzee did, Disney should be pleased with the results. I’ll predict it opens just under that. While my reasoning isn’t exactly scientific, it’s based on the hunch that more moviegoers would turn out for chimps than bears! Just my guess and we’ll see if I’m right.

Bears opening weekend prediction: $8.9 million

For my Transcendence prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/04/13/transcendence-box-office-prediction/

For my Heaven Is for Real prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/04/13/heaven-is-for-real-box-office-prediction/

For my A Haunted House 2 prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/04/13/a-haunted-house-2-box-office-prediction/

 

A Haunted House 2 Box Office Prediction

Arriving just 15 months after the unexpected success of its predecessor, A Haunted House 2 starring Marlon Wayans hits theaters Friday. The horror flick parody follows the original which debuted in January 2013 to a solid $18 million opening weekend on its way to a $40 million domestic gross.

While the original was a sleeper hit (especially considering its miniscule $2.5 million budget), expectations are a little more this time around. In my estimation, this sequel won’t match up either. Simply put, while A Haunted House did good business, audiences weren’t overly impressed by what they saw. This helps explain why it did nearly half its overall gross in the first three days.

While A Haunted House 2 certainly could approach what the first accomplished, I think it’s unlikely. As I see it, this will struggle and a likely gross is in the low double digits seems in the cards.

A Haunted House 2 opening weekend prediction: $10.6 million

For my Transcendence prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/04/13/transcendence-box-office-prediction/

For my Heaven Is for Real prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/04/13/heaven-is-for-real-box-office-prediction/

For my Bears prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/04/13/bears-box-office-prediction/