Tag: David Fincher

99th Academy Awards Predictions: May 6th Edition

My second helping of ranked Oscar predictions for next year’s 99th ceremony can be called the pre-Cannes estimates. That festival in the French Riviera kicks off May 12th and runs through May 23rd. It will be our first look at several potential contenders: Ryusuke Hamaguchi’s All of a Sudden, Pawel Pawlikowski’s Fatherland, Cristian Mungiu’s Fjord, Na Hong-jin’s Hope, James Gray’s Paper Tiger, and The Man I Love from Ira Sachs to name a few. Keep an eye on the blog for my individual posts exploring the viability of the screening pictures.

The Academy made some news of its own by announcing rule changes. The most significant is that actors can be nominated twice in the same category. There’s been recent examples of when this could have resulted in a performer getting two nods. I would say most recently that Sebastian Stan could have benefited. He was nominated in lead Actor for The Apprentice and a double shot was possible via A Different Man. Going back a ways, Kate Winslet won Best Actress in 2008 for The Reader and might have seen her name pop again for Revolutionary Road. In 2006, Kate’s Titanic mate Leonardo DiCaprio was in contention for Blood Diamond. He could have easily landed another shot via The Departed.

In International Feature Film, the criteria has always been that a submitting nation can choose just one entrant for consideration. While that rule holds, the Academy has added another path to get in. If a picture wins a qualifying international festival (such as Cannes, Berlin, Toronto, Sundance, Venice), it is now a contender. This would have helped Anatomy of a Fall in 2023 since France did not choose it as their representative picture, but it emerged victorious for the Palme d’Or at Cannes.

Since my last update in mid-April, Michael opened to gigantic box office and mediocre reviews. While the audience score on Rotten Tomatoes is high, critical griping could cripple its viability at the Oscars. However, I wouldn’t completely rule out the acclaimed work of Jaafar Jackson and Colman Domingo. Best Picture? Probably a bridge too far despite the gaudy numbers.

The Devil Wears Prada 2 also hit multiplexes. While Meryl Streep was a Best Actress nominee 20 years ago for the original, a second at-bat seems like a reach. The sequel could materialize, however, in Costume Design and/or Original Song where Lady Gaga has a track. Those categories won’t be forecasted until a few weeks down the line.

We also learned that Narnia: The Magician’s Nephew from Greta Gerwig will not be out (on Netflix) until 2027. I had it on the outside looking in at #11. It drops from contention this time around.

You can read all the speculation below and my next update will arrive as Cannes concludes!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)

3. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Digger (PR: 5) (E)

5. Fjord (PR: 6) (E)

6. No One Cares (PR: 6) (E)

7. Fatherland (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Dune: Part Three (PR: 10) (+2)

9. The Social Reckoning (PR: 9) (E)

10. All of a Sudden (PR: 7) (-3)

Other Possibilities:

11. Hope (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Cry to Heaven (PR: 16) (+4)

13. A Place in Hell (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Paper Tiger (PR: 21) (+7)

15. Werwulf (PR: 18) (+3)

16. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 23) (+7)

17. Josephine (PR: 17) (E)

18. Saturn Return (PR: 22) (+4)

19. The Entertainment System is Down (PR: 14) (-5)

20. Jack of Spades (PR: 24) (+4)

21. Being Heumann (PR: 15) (-6)

22. A Long Winter (PR: 13) (-9)

23. Behemoth! (PR: 25) (+2)

24. Michael (PR: 20) (-4)

25. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 19) (-6)

Dropped Out:

Narnia: The Magician’s Nephew

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Alejandro Gonzalez Iñárritu, Digger (PR: 2) (E)

3. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Cristian Mingiu, Fjord (PR: 3) (+1)

5. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Pawel Pawlikowski, Fatherland (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Jesse Eisenberg, No One Cares (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Na Hong-jin, Hope (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Tom Ford, Cry to Heaven (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Aaron Sorkin, The Social Reckoning (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Robert Eggers, Werwulf (PR: 14) (+1)

14. James Gray, Paper Tiger (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Greg Kwedar, Saturn Return (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Greta Gerwig, Narnia: The Magician’s Nephew

Ruben Östlund, The Entertainment System is Down

David Fincher, The Adventures of Cliff Booth

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Renate Reinsve, Fjord (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sandra Hüller, Fatherland (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Julianne Moore, No One Cares (PR: 3) (E)

4. Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Michelle Williams, A Place in Hell (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden (PR: 6) (E)

7. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Sandra Hüller, Rose (PR: 11) (+3)

9. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Sophie Okonedo, Clarissa (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Mason Reeves, Josephine (PR: 8) (-3)

12. Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 14) (+2)

13. Rachel Brosnahan, Saturn Return (PR: 13) (E)

14. Penélope Cruz, Bunker (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Lily Gladstone, The Memory Police (PR: 12) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Amy Adams, At the Sea

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Tom Cruise, Digger (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sebastian Stan, Fjord (PR: 4) (+1)

4. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Hanns Zischler, Fatherland (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Matt Damon, The Odyssey (PR: 6) (E)

7. Dominic Sessa, Tony (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Jaafar Jackson, Michael (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Nicholas Hoult, Cry to Heaven (PR: 9) (E)

10. John Turturro, The Only Living Pickpocket in New York (PR: 15) (+5)

11. Jeremy Allen White, The Social Reckoning (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Adam Driver, Paper Tiger (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Josh O’Connor, Jack of Spades (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Rami Malek, The Man I Love (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Three (PR: 11) (-4)

Dropped Out:

Robert Aramayo, I Swear

Pedro Pascal, Behemoth!

Brad Pitt, The Adventures of Cliff Booth

Charles Melton, Saturn Return

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mariana di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Sandra Hüller, Digger (PR: 6) (+4)

3. Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (-2)

4. Halle Bailey, No One Cares (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Daisy Edgar-Jones, A Place in Hell (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Tao Okamato, All of a Sudden (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 8) (E)

9. Scarlett Johannson, Paper Tiger (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Lesley Manville, Jack of Spades (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Esmé Creed-Miles, Sense and Sensibility (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Kirsten Dunst, The Entertainment System is Down (PR: 12) (E)

13. Caitriona Balfe, A Long Winter (PR: 9) (-4)

14. Penélope Cruz, The Invite (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Gemma Chan, Josephine (PR: 13) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Wunmi Mosaku, The Social Reckoning

Frances McDormand, Jack of Spades

Elizabeth Debicki, The Adventures of Cliff Booth

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Paul Giamatti, No One Cares (PR: 1) (E)

2. John Goodman, Digger (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Robert Pattinson, The Odyssey (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning (PR: 6) (-1)

7. Colman Domingo, Michael (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Andrew Scott, A Place in Hell (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Tom Holland, The Odyssey (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Jesse Plemons, Digger (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Channing Tatum, Josephine (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Mark Ruffalo, Being Heumann (PR: 9) (-3)

13. David Oyelowo, Clarissa (PR: 13) (E)

14. Antonio Banderas, Tony (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Cry to Heaven (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Daniel Brühl, The Entertainment System is Down

Riz Ahmed, Digger

    99th Academy Awards Predictions: April 19th Edition

    Barely a month beyond the 98th edition of the Academy Awards, we have arrived at my first ranked predictions for the 99th ceremony. We begin with six major categories – Best Picture, Director, and the four acting derbies.

    I gave you my first ranked glimpses for the previous telecast around the same time last year in these same races. How did that impossibly early forecast turn out? I correctly called four of the eventual ten BP nominees with Hamnet, Marty Supreme, Sentimental Value, and Sinners. Winner One Battle After Another as well as Bugonia, F1, and Frankenstein were listed in Other Possibilities. So 80% of the BP contenders were identified with The Secret Agent and Train Dreams not being mentioned in April 2025.

    In Best Director, three of the five filmmakers were predicted: Ryan Coogler (Sinners), Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme), and Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value). Statue recipient Paul Thomas Anderson from One Battle and Chloé Zhao (Hamnet) were in Other Possibilities.

    As for Best Actress, Jessie Buckley (Hamnet) swept the season and was in my predicted quintet. So was Sentimental Value‘s Renate Reinsve while Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You) and Emma Stone (Bugonia) were in Other Possibilities. Only Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue) wasn’t listed. In Best Actor, Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme) was in my quintet. Three others – winner Michael B. Jordan (Sinners), Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another), and Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon) were Other Possibilities with Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent) as the sole thespian not identified.

    My projected Supporting Actress five rightly named Teyana Taylor (One Battle) with Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value) as a possibility. Fanning’s costar Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Wumni Mosaku (Sinners), and the victorious Amy Madigan (Weapons) were not found among my possibilities. In Supporting Actor, Stellan Skarsgård from Value was in my five with winner Sean Penn (One Battle) and Delroy Lindo (Sinners) as possibilities. Battle‘s Benicio del Toro and Frankenstein‘s Jacob Elordi were not to be found yet.

    Let’s get some caveats out of the way. Some of the performers listed in lead will end up in supporting and vice versa. As an example, I figured Paul Mescal (Hamnet) would go lead for that film last year, but he was slotted in supporting. He ended up not being nominated but likely came close. For instance in this year’s listings, I don’t know if Sam Rockwell will be lead or supporting for Wild Horse Nine but my hunch says the latter at press time. The distributor will eventually clear that up.

    We will see pictures push to 2027. When I did my initial projections a year ago for 2025, Michael and The Rivals of Amziah King were thought to be releases for that calendar frame. Both are being put out in ’26. I have Michael still as a potential nominee in some competitions. Not so at this time for Rivals.

    And now the most important forewarning. Some movies you find below will turn out to be non-contenders. My inaugural look at the 98th Oscars listed Luca Guadagnino’s After the Hunt at #1 in Best Picture, Director, Actress (Julia Roberts), #4 in Supporting Actress (Ayo Edebiri), and #2 in Supporting Actor (Andrew Garfield). After its Venice festival premiere, the mixed to negative reaction drastically changed its narrative. It ended up with zero nominations. My April 2025 #1’s in the supporting fields – Ariana Grande (Wicked: For Good) and Adam Sandler (Jay Kelly) – did not make final cut either.

    So take this speculation as what it is – speculative. The picture and Best Picture will become clearer in time. That said, a reminder that 80% of the BP nominees were mentioned a year ago in addition to 100% of the directors and 80% of the lead acting hopefuls could be found in the initial post. On the flip side, nearly all of my acting picks for a nomination are coming from projected BP nominees and the percentage probably won’t be quite that high.

    When Sinners came out last year, it was a box office juggernaut with widespread critical acclaim. Yet I wondered whether the spring release could mean it would fall by the wayside months down the line. That’s why I named it in Other Possibilities for Picture, Director, Actor, and Supporting Actor. What happened months down the line? A record-setting 16 nominations with Jordan winning Actor. I won’t make the same mistake with Project Hail Mary. It has been out for weeks and already looks like a strong contender in Picture, Director, Actor, and possibly Supporting Actress. Another note – it’s not often (or maybe ever) you see a performer mentioned four times. That’s the case at the moment with the busy Sandra Hüller who is a legit threat twice in lead Actress and supporting.

    You can expect these posts to hit the blog every couple of weeks until it becomes weekly. This should occur when festival season goes into overdrive in last summer/early fall.

    BEST PICTURE

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. The Odyssey

    2. Project Hail Mary

    3. Wild Horse Nine

    4. Digger

    5. Fjord

    6. No One Cares

    7. All of a Sudden

    8. Fatherland

    9. The Social Reckoning

    10. Dune: Part Three

    Other Possibilities:

    11. Narnia: The Magican’s Nephew

    12. A Place in Hell

    13. A Long Winter

    14. The Entertainment System is Down

    15. Being Heumann

    16. Cry to Heaven

    17. Josephine

    18. Werwulf

    19. The Adventures of Cliff Booth

    20. Michael

    21. Paper Tiger

    22. Saturn Return

    23. Sense and Sensibility

    24. Jack of Spades

    25. Behemoth!

    BEST DIRECTOR

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey

    2. Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Digger

    3. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary

    4. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine

    5. Cristian Mingiu, Fjord

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden

    7. Pawel Pawlikowski, Fatherland

    8. Jesse Eisenberg, No One Cares

    9. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three

    10. Greta Gerwig, Narnia: The Magician’s Nephew

    11. Ruben Östlund, The Entertainment System is Down

    12. Tom Ford, Cry to Heaven

    13. Aaron Sorkin, The Social Reckoning

    14. Robert Eggers, Werwulf

    15. David Fincher, The Adventures of Cliff Booth

    BEST ACTRESS

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Renate Reinsve, Fjord

    2. Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning

    3. Julianne Moore, No One Cares

    4. Sandra Hüller, Fatherland

    5. Michelle Williams, A Place in Hell

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden

    7. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann

    8. Mason Reeves, Josephine

    9. Sophie Okenedo, Clarissa

    10. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie

    11. Sandra Hüller, Rose

    12. Lily Gladstone, The Memory Police

    13. Rachel Brosnahan, Saturn Return

    14. Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility

    15. Amy Adams, At the Sea

    BEST ACTOR

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Tom Cruise, Digger

    2. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary

    3. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine

    4. Sebastian Stan, Fjord

    5. Hanns Zischler, Fatherland

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Matt Damon, The Odyssey

    7. Robert Aramayo, I Swear

    8. Dominic Sessa, Tony

    9. Nicholas Hoult, Cry to Heaven

    10. Jafaar Jackson, Michael

    11. Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Three

    12. Pedro Pascal, Behemoth!

    13. Brad Pitt, The Adventures of Cliff Booth

    14. Charles Melton, Saturn Return

    15. John Turturro, The Only Pickpocket Living in New York

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine

    2. Mariana Di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine

    3. Halle Bailey, No One Cares

    4. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey

    5. Tao Okamoto, All of a Sudden

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Sandra Hüller, Digger

    7. Daisy Edgar-Jones, A Place in Hell

    8.. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary

    9. Caitriona Balfe, A Long Winter

    10. Scarlett Johansson, Paper Tiger

    11. Wunmi Mosaku, The Social Reckoning

    12. Kirsten Dunst, The Entertainment System is Down

    13. Gemma Chan, Josephine

    14. Frances McDormand, Jack of Spades

    15. Elizabeth Debicki, The Adventures of Cliff Booth

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Paul Giamatti, No One Cares

    2. John Goodman, Digger

    3. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine

    4. Colman Domingo, Michael

    5. Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine

    7. Andrew Scott, A Place in Hell

    8. Tom Holland, The Odyssey

    9. Mark Ruffalo, Being Heumann

    10. D’Pharaoh Woon-A-Tai, A Long Winter

    11. Jesse Plemons, Digger

    12. Channing Tatum, Josephine

    13. David Oyelowo, Clarissa

    14. Daniel Brühl, The Entertainment System is Down

    15. Riz Ahmed, Digger

    99th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Director

    And we are off to the races with my first Oscar predictions for the 99th Academy Awards.

    We are not quite a month removed from the 98th ceremony so let us begin some ridiculously early speculation! These are my inaugural glimpses at the four acting derbies, Director, and Picture. I already posted my take in the acting fields and they can be found here:

    99th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Actress
    99th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Actor
    99th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Supporting Actress
    99th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Supporting Actor

    That brings us to Best Director. When I did my first forecast in this race for the 98th ceremony, my projections yielded two of the eventual nominees: Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme) and Chloé Zhao (Hamnet). Eventual winner Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another) and Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value) were named in Other Possibilities. I had yet to mention Ryan Coogler (Sinners).

    Let’s get some caveats out of the way… it’s early. Some movies listed are likely to be pushed back or simply not turn out to be awards contenders. Others will rise up through the festival system where the lineup for Cannes was revealed today.

    This premiere post has Christopher Nolan back in the lineup three years after Oppenheimer dominated the 96th Academy Awards. His competitors include newcomers and former nominees like Martin McDonagh and Ryusuke Hamaguchi.

    Here’s the first snapshot with Best Picture up next!

    TODD’S FIRST OSCAR PREDICTIONS FOR DIRECTOR AT THE 99TH ACADEMY AWARDS

    Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden

    Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary

    Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine

    Cristian Mungiu, Fjord

    Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey

    Other Possibilities:

    Danny Boyle, Ink

    Beth de Araújo, Josephine

    Robert Eggers, Werwulf

    Jesse Eisenberg, No One Cares

    David Fincher, The Adventures of Cliff Booth

    Tom Ford, Cry to Heaven

    Greta Gerwig, Narnia: The Magician’s Nephew

    Alejandro Gonzalez Iñárritu, Digger

    Pawel Pawlikowski, Fatherland

    Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three

    The Jigsaw Files: Saw X (2023)

    When the surprise is revealed at the end of David Fincher’s The Game, Michael Douglas’s character is reminded that he was drugged and left for dead in Mexico and all that he got was a lousy t-shirt (and a gigantic bill I might add). John Kramer aka Jigsaw (Tobin Bell) can relate in Saw X. And while he doesn’t get a t-shirt, he definitely gets some new games to engineer after his visit to our southern neighbor.

    As many franchises do nowadays, this tenth installment of the nearly two decade old series doesn’t require knowledge of the entire canon. You really only need to remember Saw (2004) and its 2005 sequel (they remain the best two of the bunch). To jar those memories, Bell’s Kramer has terminal brain cancer. His civil engineering background allows him to concoct elaborate traps for victims. He doesn’t look at them that way because they’re generally terrible people who’ve wronged him or others. The patient known as Jigsaw doesn’t actually kill them as he gives them opportunities for escape and I suppose personal growth. As we’ve witnessed in nine pictures already, these candidates for redemption frequently fail their tests. One of Jigsaw’s would-be cases is Amanda (Shawnee Smith). She passed her exam back in the original and was revealed to be his apprentice in part II.

    With those friendly reminders, Saw X takes place between the happenings of Saw and Saw II. John is freshly diagnosed and given months to live. An acquaintance from a cancer support group tips him to experimental therapy in Mexico run by Norwegian doctor Cecelia Pederson (Synnøve Macody Lund). The eventual surgery yields puzzling results and Jigsaw realizes that the Scandinavian surgeon and her conspirators need his unique form of tutelage. Let the games begin.

    Among the flaws of many Saw entries after the second and third ones is they fell all over themselves trying to feature Bell’s Jigsaw in them (or at least his aura). Two of them (Saw VI, Saw 3D) were directed by Kevin Greutert and he returns here. I can understand the strained Jigsaw inclusions as he’s the most compelling character and other villains (or sadistic heroes depending on how you look at it) didn’t match up. Therefore it’s a relief that screenwriters Josh Stolberg and Peter Goldfinger (who penned the inferior immediate predecessor Spiral) find a clever way to make him the star. These movies are dimly lit so the fact that Bell and Smith have aged a few years isn’t much of a distraction. The script also gives Bell the most screen time he’s probably ever had. That’s a plus. Yet Saw X is also quite leisurely paced at two hours. Stretching a Saw saga beyond 90 to 100 minutes is a test of endurance.

    Stolberg and Goldfinger were also responsible for Jigsaw in 2017. I found it to be a mostly effective reboot. Saw X is similar in quality. Like Jigsaw, it ebbs somewhat in the third act. It takes a little too long to get where it’s going. We know John and Amanda will set their barbarous traps and that’s delivered occasionally in peak Saw fashion. The straightforward story is far less convoluted than other sequels with their overreliance on flashbacks to bring Bell into the proceedings.

    Bell is front and center in this for good reason. He’s got loads of intestinal fortitude to carry forth his mission. So do his captors at one point… you’ll see. This is the tenth pic arriving 19 years after we first met the patient. It belongs in the top half in the rankings and I would diagnose it as a cut above everything after the third one (with the possible exception of Jigsaw).

    Next Goal Wins Box Office Prediction

    On November 17th, the true life sports dramedy Next Goal Wins finally kicks it in theaters after numerous delays. Filmed about four years ago, Taika Waititi directs with Michael Fassbender (currently pulling double duty in David Fincher’s The Killer on Netflix) as a down of his luck soccer coach assigned to American Samoa. Costars include Oscar Kightley, Kaimana, David Fane, Rachel House, Beulah Koale, Will Arnett, and Elisabeth Moss. Arnett’s parts, by the way, were reshot after the studio replaced Armie Hammer with him.

    Unlike the filmmaker’s Jojo Rabbit from 2019, Goal did not generate any awards buzz after it hit the festival circuit. The Rotten Tomatoes score is a blah 51% as it arrives during the increasingly crowded November season.

    It certainly seems like this will get lost in the shuffle and I’m not even confident this earns $5 million for its start.

    Next Goal Wins opening weekend prediction: $3.8 million

    For my The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songsbirds & Snakes prediction, click here:

    The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes Box Office Prediction

    For my Trolls Band Together prediction, click here:

    Trolls Band Together Box Office Prediction

    For my Thanksgiving prediction, click here:

    Thanksgiving Box Office Prediction

    Oscars 2023: The State of the Best Director Race (September 17th Edition)

    My closer look at six high profile races for the 96th Academy Awards arrives at Best Director. If you missed my posts covering the four acting derbies, you can peruse them here:

    Oscars 2023: The State of the Best Actress Race (September 14th)
    Oscars 2023: The State of the Best Actor Race (September 12th)
    Oscars 2023: The State of the Supporting Actress Race (September 10th)
    Oscars 2023: The State of the Supporting Actor Race (September 7th)

    As I have with those categories, I am winnowing the field of my predicted nominees from 15 possibilities to 10. At the moment, I believe Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer) and Martin Scorsese (Killers of the Flower Moon) are guaranteed slots with Yorgos Lanthimos (Poor Things) darn close to wrapping up one himself.

    After that, there are plenty of hopefuls vying for the two spots. I do believe two females could populate them via some combo of Celine Song (Past Lives), Greta Gerwig (Barbie), Justine Triet (Anatomy of a Fall), and Ana DuVernay (Origin).

    We also have Bradley Cooper (Maestro), Jonathan Glazer (The Zone of Interest), and Alexander Payne (The Holdovers) as strong possibilities. Perhaps even Cord Jefferson (director of freshly minted Toronto Film Festival People Choice’s winner American Fiction) could make a run.

    And there’s the unseen contenders in Blitz Bazawule (The Color Purple) and Ridley Scott (Napoleon).

    Lots to ponder and there are now three new players in my final quintet compared to my previous predictions on August 28th. Here’s where I have the race standing at the moment:

    Predicted Nominees

    1. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (Previous Ranking: 2) (+1)

    2. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (-1)

    3. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 9) (+6)

    4. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 7) (+3)

    5. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 6) (+1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (-1)

    7. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 12) (+5)

    8. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 3) (-5)

    9. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 5) (-4)

    10. Blitz Bazawule, The Color Purple (PR: 8) (-2)

    Dropped Out:

    Emerald Fennell, Saltburn

    Ridley Scott, Napoleon

    Michael Mann, Ferrari

    David Fincher, The Killer

    Wes Anderson, Asteroid City

    Best Picture is up next!

    Oscar Predictions: The Killer

    David Fincher’s last five films have received at least one Oscar nomination with three (The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, The Social Network, Mank) up for Best Picture. His latest is The Killer with a Venice premiere this weekend, limited theatrical release October 27th, and Netflix stream beginning on November 10th. The action thriller stars Michael Fassbender in the title role with a supporting cast including Arliss Howard, Charles Parnell, Kerry O’Malley, Sala Baker, Sophie Charlotte, and Tilda Swinton.

    The reviews indicate this is right up Fincher’s alley as a cold tale of an assassin that is unquestionably pristinely made. The Rotten Tomatoes meter is at 88%. The reaction also hints that this will not be the awards player in the big categories that his last batch were. That quintet of previously nominated pics all nabbed acting nominations. Despite praise for Fassbender’s lead work, Best Actor already looks too crowded for his inclusion. It also sounds like Swinton in Supporting Actress is a non-starter.

    Per usual with Fincher’s work, tech nods could come in Film Editing (that’s where Dragon Tattoo won), Cinematography (where Mank was victorious), and Score (where Social Network reigned supreme). There’s also the chance it’s the filmmaker’s first not nominated movie since 2007’s Zodiac. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

    2023 Oscar Predictions: August 28th Edition

    You could correctly call this Oscar Predictions post the calm before the festival storm as Venice kicks off this week with Telluride and Toronto right behind it. Yet a major development occurred last week as the sands of time are moving slower for Denis Villeneuve’s Dune: Part Two. The epic sequel was pushed back to the spring of 2024.

    How big of an impact does that make for my forecasts? A heavy one as I had it achieving 11 nominations. In my previous projections on August 16th, that was second only to Oppenheimer‘s 12. I had it ranked 1st in Makeup and Hairstyling and Visual Effects, 2nd in Costume Design, Film Editing, Original Score, Production Design, and Sound, 3rd in Picture and Director, and 4th for Adapted Screenplay.

    In fact, a victory for Dune in Visual Effects was probably the easiest race to call this early (its predecessor won too). Now it makes the VE contest quite interesting. Oppenheimer could take the prize and mark Christopher Nolan’s second win in a row in the category after 2020’s Tenet. It opens the door wider for The Creator from Gareth Edwards. And there’s now more of a shot for the MCU to nab its first statue in VE for Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 in particular.

    I plan to do my next update on Labor Day (September 4th). By that time, we will have reviews and buzz from Venice premieres including Ferrari, Maestro, Poor Things, Priscilla, and The Killer. We’ll also have the word out for whatever pics debut at Telluride (to be announced Thursday).

    Right after that update on the 4th, the rest of the Venice titles and a slew of Toronto movies will be unveiled. They include The Holdovers, Rustin, Dumb Money, Next Goal Wins, Society of the Snow, Origin, Pain Hustlers, Nyad, Lee, American Fiction, The Burial, and Hit Man.

    In other words… it’s about to get really interesting, folks! I’m also dropping some titles that I’m just not sure are actually releasing in 2023 like The Piano Lesson. Obviously, it will re-enter the dance if there’s confirmation on a release this year. Questions persist about other ones. Is Long Day’s Journey Into Night happening before December 31st? Is Shirley or Freud’s Last Session? Will other currently scheduled releases pull a Dune? The answer is likely affirmative.

    With the Dune shift, Air moves back into my BP 10 and Bradley Cooper (Maestro) is in Director over Denis Villeneuve. In non-Dune related shifts, Sandra Huller is now #1 in Actress over The Color Purple‘s Fantasia Barrino. Charles Melton from May December hits my Supporting Actor five over Willem Dafoe (Poor Things).

    You can read all the movement below and my next update with the Venice buzz arrives in a week!

    Best Picture

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Killers of the Flower Moon (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

    2. Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Past Lives (PR: 4) (+1)

    4. The Color Purple (PR: 6) (+2)

    5. Maestro (PR: 5) (E)

    6. The Zone of Interest (PR: 7) (+1)

    7. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 8) (+1)

    8. Barbie (PR: 10) (+2)

    9. Poor Things (PR: 9) (E)

    10. Air (PR: 12) (+2)

    Other Possibilities:

    11. Saltburn (PR: 11) (E)

    12. The Holdovers (PR: 13) (+1)

    13. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 15) (+2)

    14. Napoleon (PR: 14) (E)

    15. Ferrari (PR: 16) (+1)

    16. The Killer (PR: 17) (+1)

    17. May December (PR: 20) (+3)

    18. Asteroid City (PR: 18) (E)

    19. One Life (PR: 21) (+2)

    20. Next Goal Wins (PR: 19) (-1)

    21. Rustin (PR: 24) (+3)

    22. The Nickel Boys (PR: 22) (E)

    23. Dumb Money (PR: 25) (+2)

    24. Origin (PR: Not Ranked)

    25. The Book of Clarence (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Dune: Part Two

    The Piano Lesson

    Best Director

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 4) (+1)

    4. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 7) (+3)

    5. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 8) (+1)

    8. Blitz Bazawule, The Color Purple (PR: 10) (+2)

    9. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 9) (E)

    10. Emerald Fennell, Saltburn (PR: 11) (+1)

    11. Ridley Scott, Napoleon (PR: 12) (+1)

    12. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 13) (+1)

    13. Michael Mann, Ferrari (PR: 15) (+2)

    14. David Fincher, The Killer (PR: 14) (E)

    15. Wes Anderson, Asteroid City (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two

    Best Actress

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 2) (+1)

    2. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 4) (+2)

    3. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 1) (-3)

    5. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 8) (+2)

    7. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 7) (-1)

    9. Kate Winslet, Lee (PR: 9) (E)

    10. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 10) (E)

    11. Caille Spaeny, Priscilla (PR: 11) (E)

    12. Aunjanue Ellis, Origin (PR: Not Ranked)

    13. Regina King, Shirley (PR: 12) (-1)

    14. Teyana Taylor, A Thousand and One (PR: 15) (+1)

    15. Saoirse Ronan, Foe (PR: 13) (-2)

    Dropped Out:

    Helen Mirren, Golda

    Best Actor

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 3) (+1)

    3. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (-1)

    4. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Barry Keoghan, Saltburn (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Teo Yoo, Past Lives (PR: 8) (+1)

    8. Anthony Hopkins, One Life (PR: 10) (+2)

    9. Joaquin Phoenix, Napoleon (PR: 9) (E)

    10. Kingsley Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 7) (-3)

    11. Michael Fassbender, Next Goal Wins (PR: 11) (E)

    12. Adam Driver, Ferrari (PR: 13) (+1)

    13. Matt Damon, Air (PR: 12) (-1)

    14. David Strathairn, A Little Prayer (PR: Not Ranked)

    15. Koji Yakusho, Perfect Days (PR: 14) (-1)

    Dropped Out:

    Anthony Hopkins, Freud’s Last Session

    Best Supporting Actress

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Viola Davis, Air (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Rosamund Pike, Saltburn (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Aunjanue Ellis, The Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (E)

    10. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 10) (E)

    11. Helena Bonham-Carter, One Life (PR: 11) (E)

    12. Penelope Cruz, Ferrari (PR: 14) (+2)

    13. Claire Foy, All of Us Strangers (PR: Not Ranked)

    14. Vanessa Kirby, Napoleon (PR: 12) (-2)

    15. Niecy Nash-Betts, Origin (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson

    Lashana Lynch, Bob Marley: One Love

    Best Supporting Actor

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 3) (E)

    4. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 8) (+3)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 5) (-1)

    7. Colman Domingo, The Color Purple (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. Glenn Howerton, BlackBerry (PR: 9) (+1)

    9. Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers (PR: 10) (+1)

    10. Jesse Plemons, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 11) (+1)

    11. Ben Affleck, Air (PR: 14) (+3)

    12. Matt Bomer, Maestro (PR: 13) (+1)

    13. Matt Damon, Oppenheimer (PR: 12) (-1)

    14. Richard E. Grant, Saltburn (PR: Not Ranked)

    15. Glynn Turman, Rustin (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson

    Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things

    Best Original Screenplay

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Past Lives (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Maestro (PR: 4) (+1)

    4. Air (PR: 7) (+3)

    5. Saltburn (PR: 3) (-2)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. The Holdovers (PR: 6) (E)

    7. May December (PR: 5) (-2)

    8. Asteroid City (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Fair Play (PR: 9) (E)

    10. Rustin (PR: 10) (E)

    11. Napoleon (PR: 11) (E)

    12. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 12) (E)

    13. The Book of Clarence (PR: 13) (E)

    14. The Iron Claw (PR: 14) (E)

    15. A Thousand and One (PR: 15) (E)

    Best Adapted Screenplay

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Barbie (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Poor Things (PR: 6) (+2)

    5. The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. The Color Purple (PR: 7) (+1)

    7. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 10) (+2)

    8. One Life (PR: 9) (+1)

    9. BlackBerry (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. Next Goal Wins (PR: 11) (+1)

    11. Origin (PR: Not Ranked)

    12. The Nickel Boys (PR: 12) (E)

    13. Dumb Money (PR: 13) (E)

    14. The Killer (PR: 15) (+1)

    15. All of Us Strangers (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Dune: Part Two

    The Piano Lesson

    Best International Feature Film

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. The Zone of Interest (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 2) (E)

    3. About Dry Grasses (PR: 3) (E)

    4. The Taste of Things (PR: 5) (+1)

    5. Monster (PR: 4) (-1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Fallen Leaves (PR: 7) (+1)

    7. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. Perfect Days (PR: Not Ranked)

    9. La Chimera (PR: 10) (+1)

    10. Society of the Snow (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    El Conde

    The Delinquents

    Best Animated Feature

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 1) (E)

    2. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Elemental (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Wish (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Nimona (PR: 7) (+2)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem (PR: 5) (-1)

    7. Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. Robot Dreams (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Ernest and Celestine: A Trip to Gibberitia (PR: 9) (E)

    10. They Shot the Piano Player (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    The Super Mario Bros. Movie

    Best Documentary Feature

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Beyond Utopia (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie (PR: 2) (E)

    3. 20 Days in Mariupol (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Every Body (PR: 5) (+1)

    5. The Eternal Memory (PR: 4) (-1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. The Mother of All Lies (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Orlando, A Political Biography (PR: Not Ranked)

    8. Stamped from the Beginning (PR: 7) (-1)

    9. Wild Life (PR: 9) (E)

    10. The Deepest Breath (PR: 8) (-2)

    Dropped Out:

    Black Ice

    Best Cinematography

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (+1)

    2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (+1)

    3. Maestro (PR: 4) (+1)

    4. Poor Things (PR: 7) (+3)

    5. Napoleon (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. The Color Purple (PR: 8) (+2)

    7. The Zone of Interest (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. The Killer (PR: 9) (+1)

    9. Ferrari (PR: 10) (+1)

    10. Asteroid City (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Dune: Part Two

    Best Costume Design

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Poor Things (PR: 3) (+1)

    3. Napoleon (PR: 5) (+2)

    4. The Color Purple (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Chevalier (PR: 8) (+3)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Asteroid City (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Oppenheimer (PR: 9) (+1)

    9. Priscilla (PR: 10) (+1)

    10. Wonka (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Dune: Part Two

    Best Film Editing

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (+1)

    3. Maestro (PR: 4) (+1)

    4. Air (PR: 5) (+1)

    5. Past Lives (PR: 6) (+1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. The Zone of Interest (PR: 9) (+3)

    7. The Killer (PR: 8) (+1)

    8. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: Not Ranked)

    9. Ferrari (PR: 7) (-2)

    10. The Color Purple (PR: 10) (E)

    Dropped Out:

    Dune: Part Two

    Best Makeup and Hairstyling

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Poor Things (PR: 2) (+1)

    2. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 3) (+1)

    3. Maestro (PR: 4) (+1)

    4. Barbie (PR: 6) (+2)

    5. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 7) (+2)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Golda (PR: 8) (+2)

    7. Oppenheimer (PR: Not Ranked)

    8. Priscilla (PR: 5) (-3)

    9. The Color Purple (PR: Not Ranked

    10. Beau is Afraid (PR: 9) (-1)

    Dropped Out:

    Dune: Part Two

    Wonka

    Best Original Score

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (+1)

    3. Elemental (PR: 4) (+1)

    4. The Killer (PR: 9) (+5)

    5. Past Lives (PR: 6) (+1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 10) (+4)

    7. The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (-2)

    8. Napoleon (PR: Not Ranked)

    9. Asteroid City (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. One Life (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Dune: Part Two

    Poor Things

    Best Original Song

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. TBD from The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)

    2. “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie (PR: 2) (E)

    3. “The Wish” from Wish (PR: 3) (E)

    4. “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie (PR: 5) (+1)

    5. “Road to Freedom” from Rustin (PR: Not Ranked)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. “Quiet Eyes” from Past Lives (PR: 4) (-2)

    7. “Gonna Be You” from 80 for Brady (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. “Dance the Night” from Barbie (PR: 7) (-1)

    9. “Steal the Show” from Elemental (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. “Joan Still” from Theater Camp (PR: 10) (E)

    Dropped Out:

    “Am I Dreaming?” from Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

    Best Production Design

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Poor Things (PR: 4) (+2)

    3. Barbie (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Oppenheimer (PR: 5) (+1)

    5. Napoleon (PR: 7) (+2)

    Other Possibilities

    6. Asteroid City (PR: 6) (E)

    7. The Color Purple (PR: 8) (+1)

    8. Maestro (PR: 9) (+1)

    9. The Zone of Interest (PR: 10) (+1)

    10. Saltburn (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Dune: Part Two

    Best Sound

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Napoleon (PR: 3) (+1)

    3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 7) (+4)

    4. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 5) (+1)

    5. The Color Purple (PR: 6) (+1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Ferrari (PR: 4) (-2)

    7. Maestro (PR: 8) (+1)

    8. The Zone of Interest (PR: Not Ranked)

    9. The Killer (PR: 9) (E)

    10. The Creator (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Dune: Part Two

    Barbie

    Best Visual Effects

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (+1)

    2. The Creator (PR: 4) (+2)

    3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Rebel Moon (PR: Not Ranked)

    5. Napoleon (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities

    6. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves (PR: 10) (+3)

    8. Barbie (PR: Not Ranked)

    9. Wonka (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. The Little Mermaid (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Dune: Part Two

    Killers of the Flower Moon

    Blue Beetle

    That means I’m predicting the following numbers of nominations for these pictures:

    12 Nominations

    Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer

    8 Nominations

    Barbie, Maestro

    7 Nominations

    The Color Purple, Past Lives, Poor Things

    5 Nominations

    Napoleon

    4 Nominations

    Air, Anatomy of a Fall, The Zone of Interest

    2 Nominations

    Elemental, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Rustin, Saltburn, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, Wish

    1 Nomination

    About Dry Grasses, Beyond Utopia, The Boy and the Heron, Chevalier, The Creator, The Eternal Memory, Every Body, The Killer, May December, Monster, Nimona, Rebel Moon, Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie, The Taste of Things, 20 Days in Mariupol

    Best Picture 2008: The Expanded Ten

    Earlier this summer, I completed a blog series on a particular piece of speculative Oscar history. From 2009 to the present, there has been anywhere from 8-10 Best Pictures nominees at the Academy Awards. The number has been set at 10 for the past couple of years and fluctuated previously. Before 2009, it was a quintet of films competing for the prize. I penned 14 posts making predictions on which five pics would have made the cut if it had stayed at that smaller number. **Click on that Oscar History tab on the blog to access all of them!

    Beginning today… my speculation turns to the reverse. What if the Academy had always honored 10 motion pictures? From 1944-2008, there were always five vying for attention. For a completist view, there were five for the first two Oscars (1929 and 1930). We had eight in 1931. From 1932 to 1943, it was ten.

    This series will project the other five that I believe would’ve gotten in beginning in 2008. In fact, it’s because of that year’s biggest grosser not being included that may have prompted the Academy to expand again in the first place. We’ll get there in just a minute.

    We do, of course, know five of the ten and that would be the ones that were nominated. Danny Boyle’s Slumdog Millionaire dominated the ceremony with ten nods and an impressive eight victories in Picture, Director, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Film Editing, Original Score, Original Song, and Sound Mixing.

    David Fincher’s The Curious Case of Benjamin Button received the most overall mentions with 13 and took home 3 (Art Direction, Makeup, Visual Effects).

    Our other trio of contenders were Ron Howard’s Frost/Nixon (o for 5 in nominations), Gus Van Sant’s Milk (8 nods with Sean Penn winning Actor as well as an Original Screenplay statue), and Stephen Daldry’s The Reader (5 nominations with Kate Winslet taking Actress).

    The 81st Academy Awards were a rare year when the five Picture hopefuls matched the five filmmakers nominated in Best Director. In other words, there are no clues there for additional BP pics for the purposes of this post.

    Yet for the ones that could’ve made the dance in an expanded lineup, we do begin with 2008’s largest moneymaker and that’s Christopher Nolan’s The Dark Knight. It did manage to score 8 mentions with Heath Ledger winning a posthumous Supporting Actor prize (in addition to Sound Editing gold). The fact that it didn’t break into BP was heavily criticized online and elsewhere. If there had been 10 pics up, that almost certainly wouldn’t have been the case.

    I would say the same for Pixar’s Wall-E. When it went to 10 movies in 2009 and 2010, the studio’s Up and Toy Story 3 were in. The robotic adventure was the victor in Animated Feature and was nominated in five more races in Original Screenplay, Original Score, Original Song, Sound Editing, and Sound Mixing. Like Knight, Wall-E is an easy pick.

    For the 8th spot, I’m fairly confident in Doubt. John Patrick Shanley’s drama (based on his Pulitzer Prize winning play) saw four of its actors nominated and was up for Adapted Screenplay. That combo is enough to assume inclusion.

    Then it gets complicated for the 9th and 10th slots and there’s a few possibilities to ponder. Darren Aronofsky’s The Wrestler saw Mickey Rourke and Marisa Tomei up, but a screenplay miss makes me skeptical. Clint Eastwood’s Changeling had three noms (including Angelina Jolie in Actress), but drew mixed reviews. Woody Allen’s Vicky Christina Barcelona, despite taking the Golden Globe in Musical/Comedy, was only nominated for Penelope Cruz’s supporting turn (for which she won). Martin McDonagh’s In Bruges and Mike Leigh’s Happy-Go-Lucky were both up for Original Screenplay and that race alone. There’s usually one or two screenplay nominees that are only up for that category. Iron Man was a gigantic hit which kicked off the MCU. I doubt the Academy would have honored two comic book adaptations. The Duchess won Costume Design and was nominated for its Art Direction. It also was greeted with a mixed critical response.

    All of those titles, to one degree or another, are worthy of consideration for the last two spots. I’m going with an indie selection in Courtney Hunt’s Frozen River which was nominated for Actress (Melissa Leo) and Original Screenplay. Let’s call it 2008’s Winter’s Bone (which would make the 2010 BP ten).

    Lastly, I’m naming Revolutionary Road from Sam Mendes. Despite it missing noms for stars Leonardo DiCaprio and Kate Winslet, it received a Golden Globe nod in Drama and three Academy mentions for Supporting Actor (Michael Shannon), Art Direction, and Costume Design. That might have been just enough for #10.

    So there you have it! That means my 2008 Best Picture expanded to ten is:

    The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

    The Dark Knight

    Doubt

    Frost/Nixon

    Frozen River

    Milk

    The Reader

    Revolutionary Road

    Slumdog Millionaire

    Wall-E

    I’ll have 2007 up for your reading pleasure soon!

    2023 Oscar Predictions: August 2nd Edition

    The box office and critical phenomenon known as Barbenheimer looms large over my first August Oscar predictions. I toyed with moving Oppenheimer and its maker Christopher Nolan to the #1 spots in BP and Director. They sit in second with Martin Scorsese’s Killers of the Flower Moon clinging to the top. On the other hand, Robert Downey Jr.’s work in Oppenheimer is now first over Robert De Niro from Killers.

    Meanwhile, I have finally put Barbie in my ten BP contenders and that takes out Air. While it materializes in the big race, I’m still keeping Greta Gerwig and Margot Robbie out of Director and Actress, respectively.

    We are a month away from the triumvirate of Venice, Telluride, and Toronto. They will undoubtedly shape and alter what you read below. Here’s where I believe it stands right now.

    Best Picture

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Killers of the Flower Moon (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

    2. Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (+1)

    3. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (+1)

    4. Past Lives (PR: 2) (-2)

    5. The Color Purple (PR: 5) (E)

    6. The Zone of Interest (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Saltburn (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Maestro (PR: 10) (+2)

    9. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. Barbie (PR: 11) (+1)

    Other Possibilities:

    11. Poor Things (PR: 12) (+1)

    12. Air (PR: 9) (-3)

    13. The Holdovers (PR: 14) (+1)

    14. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 13) (-1)

    15. Napoleon (PR: 15) (E)

    16. The Killer (PR: 21) (+5)

    17. May December (PR: 15) (-1)

    18. Ferrari (PR: 22) (+4)

    19. Asteroid City (PR: 17) (-2)

    20. Next Goal Wins (PR: 18) (-2)

    21. Rustin (PR: 19) (-2)

    22. The Piano Lesson (PR: 20) (-2)

    23. The Nickel Boys (PR: 24) (+1)

    24. Bob Marley: One Love (PR: Not Ranked)

    25. Priscilla (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    BlackBerry

    The Book of Clarence

    Best Director

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: 5 (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Blitz Bazawule, The Color Purple (PR: 7) (+1)

    7. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 10) (+2)

    9. Emerald Fennell, Saltburn (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 9) (-1)

    11. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 11) (E)

    12. Ridley Scott, Napoleon (PR: 12) (E)

    13. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 13) (E)

    14. David Fincher, The Killer (PR: 14) (E)

    15. Wes Anderson, Asteroid City (PR: 15) (E)

    Best Actress

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 5) (+1)

    5. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 7) (+2)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 4) (-2)

    7. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 9) (+1)

    9. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla (PR: 10) (E)

    11. Kate Winslet, Lee (PR: 11) (E)

    12. Regina King, Shirley (PR: 12) (E)

    13. Emily Blunt, Pain Hustlers (PR: Not Ranked)

    14. Helen Mirren, Golda (PR: 14) (E)

    15. Teyana Taylor, A Thousand and One (PR: 13) (-2)

    Dropped Out:

    Judy Greer, Eric Larue

    Best Actor

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (+1)

    3. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 4) (+1)

    4. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 2) (-2)

    5. Barry Keoghan, Saltburn (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Teo Yoo, Past Lives (PR: 10) (+4)

    8. Joaquin Phoenix, Napoleon (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Kingsley Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 9) (E)

    10. Anthony Hopkins, One Life (PR: Not Ranked)

    11. Matt Damon, Air (PR: 11) (E)

    12. Michael Fassbender, Next Goal Wins (PR: 12) (E)

    13. Adam Driver, Ferrari (PR: 15) (+2)

    14. Anthony Hopkins, Freud’s Last Session (PR: 7) (-7)

    15. Ed Harris, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 13) (-2)

    Dropped Out:

    David Strathairn, A Little Prayer

    Best Supporting Actress

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Rosamund Pike, Saltburn (PR: 8) (+4)

    5. Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer (PR: 4) (-1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Viola Davis, Air (PR: 5) (-2)

    8. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 7) (-1)

    9. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 9) (E)

    10. Aunjanue Ellis, The Nickel Boys (PR: 10) (E)

    11. Audra McDonald, Rustin (PR: 13) (+2)

    12. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 11) (-1)

    13. Helena Bonham-Carter, One Life (PR: Not Ranked)

    14. America Ferrera, Barbie (PR: 12) (-2)

    15. Vanessa Kirby, Napoleon (PR: 14) (-1)

    Dropped Out:

    Rachel McAdams, Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret

    Best Supporting Actor

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (+2)

    2. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (-1)

    3. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 2) (-1)

    4. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 6) (+1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Colman Domingo, The Color Purple (PR: 5) (-1)

    7. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Jesse Plemons, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 12) (+3)

    10. Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers (PR: 15) (+5)

    11. Glenn Howerton, BlackBerry (PR: 11) (E)

    12. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (PR: 14) (+2)

    13. Matt Damon, Oppenheimer (PR: Not Ranked)

    14. Glynn Turman, Rustin (PR: 10) (-4)

    15. Ben Affleck, Air (PR: 9) (-6)

    Dropped Out:

    Matt Bomer, Maestro

    Best Original Screenplay

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Past Lives (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Saltburn (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Air (PR: 4) (E)

    5. May December (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. The Holdovers (PR: 7) (+1)

    7. Maestro (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. Asteroid City (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Napoleon (PR: 10) (+1)

    10. Rustin (PR: 9) (-1)

    11. The Book of Clarence (PR: 12) (+1)

    12. Bob Marley: One Love (PR: Not Ranked)

    13. Fair Play (PR: 14) (+1)

    14. The Iron Claw (PR: 15) (+1)

    15. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 13) (-2)

    Dropped Out:

    Drive Away Dolls

    Best Adapted Screenplay

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Poor Things (PR: 5) (+2)

    4. Barbie (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (-2)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. The Color Purple (PR: 7) (+1)

    7. The Zone of Interest (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Next Goal Wins (PR: 13) (+4)

    10. BlackBerry (PR: 9) (-1)

    11. The Nickel Boys (PR: 12) (+1)

    12. The Piano Lesson (PR: 10) (-2)

    13. The Killer (PR: 11) (-2)

    14. One Life (PR: Not Ranked)

    15. Ferrari (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Dumb Money

    Freud’s Last Session

    Best International Feature Film

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. The Zone of Interest (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 2) (E)

    3. About Dry Grasses (PR: 4) (+1)

    4. Monster (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. The Pot-Au-Feu (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 6) (E)

    7. El Conde (PR: Not Ranked)

    8. Fallen Leaves (PR: 9) (+1)

    9. The Delinquents (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. La Chimera (PR: 10) (E)

    Dropped Out:

    Perfect Days

    Best Animated Feature

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 1) (E)

    2. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Elemental (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Wish (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem (PR: 7) (+2)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Nimona (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget (PR: 5) (-2)

    8. Robot Dreams (PR: 8) (E)

    9. The Super Mario Bros. Movie (PR: 10) (+1)

    10. Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    The Magnificent Life of Marcel Pagnol

    Best Documentary Feature

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Beyond Utopia (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie (PR: 2) (E)

    3. 20 Days in Mariupol (PR: 6) (+3)

    4. The Mother of All Lies (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Stamped from the Beginning (PR: Not Ranked)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Every Body (PR: 7) (+1)

    7. The Eternal Memory (PR: 3) (-4)

    8. Wild Life (PR: 5) (-3)

    9. Kokomo City (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. Black Ice (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    It Ain’t Over

    Best Cinematography

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (+1)

    2. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (-1)

    3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Napoleon (PR: 4) (E)

    5. The Zone of Interest (PR: 8) (+3)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. The Color Purple (PR: 5) (-1)

    7. The Killer (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. Poor Things (PR: 7) (-1)

    9. Ferrari (PR: 9) (E)

    10. Maestro (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Asteroid City

    Best Costume Design

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Poor Things (PR: 4) (+1)

    4. The Color Purple (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. Napoleon (PR: 6) (+1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 5) (-1)

    7. Chevalier (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Wonka (PR: 9) (+1)

    9. Oppenheimer (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. Priscilla (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Asteroid City

    Best Film Editing

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (+2)

    2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (-1)

    3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (-1)

    4. Past Lives (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Ferrari (PR: Not Ranked)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Air (PR: 5) (-1)

    7. Saltburn (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Maestro (PR: 8) (E)

    9. The Color Purple (PR: 6) (-3)

    10. The Killer (PR: 9) (-1)

    Dropped Out:

    Napoleon

    Best Makeup and Hairstyling

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Maestro (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Barbie (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Priscilla (PR: 10) (+3)

    8. Golda (PR: 7) (-1)

    9. The Color Purple (PR: 9) (E)

    10. Beau is Afraid (PR: 8) (-2)

    Best Original Score

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (+1)

    3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (-1)

    4. Elemental (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Past Lives (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 7) (+1)

    7. The Zone of Interest (PR: 9) (+2)

    8. The Killer (PR: 10) (+2)

    9. Napoleon (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. Asteroid City (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Poor Things

    Best Original Song

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. TBD from The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)

    2. “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie (PR: 3) (+1)

    3. “The Wish” from Wish (PR: 2) (-1)

    4. “Just Ken” from Barbie (PR: 4) (E)

    5. TBD from The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. “Gonna Be You” from 80 for Brady (PR: 6) (E)

    7. “Steal the Show” from Elemental (PR: 7) (E)

    8. “Dance the Night” from Barbie (PR: 8) (E)

    9. “Quiet Eyes” from Past Lives (PR: 9) (E)

    10. “Joan Still” from Theater Camp (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    “Am I Dreaming?” from Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

    Best Production Design

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Barbie (PR: 6) (+3)

    4. Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. Poor Things (PR: 4) (-1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Asteroid City (PR: 7) (+1)

    7. The Color Purple (PR: 9) (+2)

    8. Napoleon (PR: 5) (-3)

    9. The Zone of Interest (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. Maestro (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Wonka

    Best Sound

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

    3. The Color Purple (PR: 7) (+4)

    4. Napoleon (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 4) (-2)

    7. Maestro (PR: 8) (+1)

    8. Barbie (PR: Not Ranked)

    9. The Zone of Interest (PR: 9) (E)

    10. Ferrari (PR: 6) (-4)

    Dropped Out:

    The Killer

    Best Visual Effects

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Napoleon (PR: 6) (+2)

    5. The Creator (PR: 4) (-1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (PR: 9) (+3)

    7. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Wonka (PR: 5) (-3)

    9. Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. Barbie (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Poor Things

    Spaceman

    That equates to these movies garnering these numbers of nominations:

    12 Nominations

    Oppenheimer

    11 Nominations

    Dune: Part Two

    10 Nominations

    Killers of the Flower Moon

    8 Nominations

    Barbie

    7 Nominations

    The Color Purple, Past Lives

    6 Nominations

    Poor Things

    4 Nominations

    Anatomy of a Fall, Napoleon, Saltburn, The Zone of Interest

    3 Nominations

    Maestro

    2 Nominations

    Elemental, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, Wish

    1 Nomination

    20 Days in Mariupol, About Dry Grasses, Air, Beyond Utopia, The Boy and the Heron, The Creator, Ferrari, The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songsbirds and Snakes, May December, Monster, The Mother of All Lies, Nyad, The Pot-Au-Feu, Rustin, Stamped from the Beginning, Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem