Tag: Denis Villeneuve

97th Academy Awards Predictions: May 5, 2024

Cinco de Mayo brings the second ranked post for the 97th Academy Awards in the six major races- Picture, Director, and the four acting derbies. Obviously we’re early in the process and, at the moment, a lot of speculation is simply on where certain performers will be placed (lead or supporting). Some examples: His Three Daughters from director Azazel Jacobs screened to impressive reviews at Toronto last fall and has been given a plum Netflix streaming start for this autumn. The title characters are played by Carrie Coon, Natasha Lyonne, and Elizabeth Olsen. The studio has a decision to make on which categories the trio are campaigned in. I am currently guesstimating that Lyonne will be lead with the other two in supporting. It is indeed a guesstimate. They could all go supporting. Coon could be an Actress play with the others in supporting. Obviously I’ll adjust as the weeks and months move along as updates are provided.

Then there’s Saoirse Ronan. The four-time nominee and no time winner has two 2024 shots. Her work in The Outrun premiered at Sundance, indicating a definite possibility for a lead Actress nod. She is also in Steve McQueen’s Blitz which sure looks like an awards hopeful on paper. Whether she’s lead or supporting in it remains to be seen. Apple TV might have better luck putting her in Supporting Actress and that’s where I have her. However, we don’t know if that’s workable at press time.

Beyond the thespians, we have head scratchers like Kevin Costner’s western epic Horizon: An American Saga. Make that Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 1 (slated for late June) and Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 2 (arriving mid-August). Could the Dances with Wolves maker have another chance at Oscar glory? If so, which chapter books its spot on the BP list? I’m speculating that the better chance lies with the second one.

Horizon will first be seen at Cannes and that fest kicks off May 14th. Some other pictures showing there include Kinds of Kindness, Megalopolis, The Apprentice, Bird, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, Emilia Perez, and Anora. When I publish my next update in a couple of weeks, some of them will have reviews and buzz.

Here’s how I have it shaking out now!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Blitz (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Conclave (PR: 3) (E)

4. Sing Sing (PR: 4) (E)

5. Queer (PR: 6) (+1)

6. The End (PR: 5) (-1)

7. The Fire Inside (PR: 7) (E)

8. Kinds of Kindness (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Bird (PR: 8) (-1)

10. His Three Daughters (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

11. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 11) (E)

12. Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 2 (PR: 19) (+7)

13. The Apprentice (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 14) (E)

15. The Piano Lesson (PR: 18) (+3)

16. Megalopolis (PR: 17) (+1)

17. Maria (PR: 16) (-1)

18. The Nickel Boys (PR: 22) (+4)

19. Civil War (PR: 15) (-4)

20. Hit Man (PR: Not Ranked)

21. A Real Pain (PR: 20) (-1)

22. The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat (PR: 13) (-9)

23. Dídi (PR: 10) (-13)

24. Hard Truths (PR: 23) (-1)

25. SNL 1975 (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Here

Wicked

Gladiator II

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 1) (E)

2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)

4. Joshua Oppenheimer, The End (PR: 4) (E)

5. Andrea Arnold, Bird (PR: 9) (+4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Luca Guadagnino, Queer (PR: 6) (E)

7. Yorgos Lanthimos, Kinds of Kindness (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Rachel Morrison, The Fire Inside (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Todd Phillips, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: 7) (-3)

11. George Miller, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 11) (E)

12. Kevin Costner, Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 2 (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Francis Ford Coppola, Megalopolis (PR: 14) (+1)

14. Ali Abbisi, The Apprentice (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Azazel Jacobs, His Three Daughters (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Sean Wang, Dídi

Alex Garland, Civil War

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 1) (E)

2. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 10) (+8)

3. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from Supporting

4. Ryan Destiny, The Fire Inside (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Tilda Swinton, The End (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Perez (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Zendaya, Challengers (PR: 13) (+3)

11. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 11) (E)

12. Florence Pugh, We Live in Time (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Anne Hathaway, Mother Mary (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Uzo Aduba, The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat (PR: 8) (-6)

15. Noemie Merlant, Emmanuelle (PR: 15) (E)

Dropped Out:

Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (moved to Supporting)

Cynthia Erivo, Wicked

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 2) (E)

3. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Barry Keoghan, Bird (PR: 3) (-1)

5. André Holland, The Actor (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (E)

7. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 8) (E)

9. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 10) (+1)

10. George MacKay, The End (PR: 7) (-3)

11. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 13) (+2)

12. Paul Bettany, The Collaboration (PR: 14) (+2)

13. Andrew Garfield, We Live in Time (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Kingsley Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Kevin Costner, Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 2 (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Two

Adam Driver, Megalopolis

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from lead Actress

3. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 1) (-2)

4. Carrie Coon, His Three Daughters (PR: Not Ranked)

5. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, The Nickel Boys (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Hong Chau, Kinds of Kindness (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Lesley Manville, Queer (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Elizabeth Olsen, His Three Daughters (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Erin Kellyman, Blitz (PR: 3) (-7)

11. Jodie Comer, The Bikeriders (PR: 6) (-5)

12. Maria Bakalova, The Apprentice (PR: 7) (-5)

13. Toni Collette, Juror No. 2 (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Margaret Qualley, Kinds of Kindness (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Perez (PR: 11) (-4)

Dropped Out:

Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (moved to lead Actress)

Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat

Cailee Spaeny, Civil War

Naomi Watts, Emmanuelle

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 1) (E)

2. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 2) (E)

3. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside (PR: 3) (E)

4. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 4) (E)

5. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Drew Starkey, Queer (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Franz Rogowski, Bird (PR: Not Ranked)

9. John Lithgow, Conclave (PR: 11) (+2)

10. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 10) (E)

11. Harris Dickinson, Blitz (PR: 9) (-2)

12. Leigh Gill, Blitz (PR: 5) (-7)

13. Jesse Plemons, Kinds of Kindness (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Stephen Graham, Blitz (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Javier Bardem, Dune: Part Two (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Forest Whitaker, Megalopolis

Paul Raci, Sing Sing

Austin Butler, Dune: Part Two

Edgar Ramirez, Emilia Perez

97th Academy Awards Predictions: April 21, 2024

A month and change after the 96th Academy Awards aired, it is time for my first ranked predictions for the next ceremony coming your way March 2, 2025.

Yes, it’s early. However, I posted my inaugural numbered forecasts for Best Picture, Director, and the four acting derbies around the same juncture a year ago. The results named the eventual winners in all six races. In BP, four of the 10 contenders were predicted (including Oppenheimer) while three others were listed in Other Possibilities. For Director, I correctly called 2 of the 5 filmmakers (including Christopher Nolan) with two others in Other Possibilities. Best Actress yielded just one, but it was statue recipient Emma Stone for Poor Things. Two others were listed in Other Possibilities. Best Actor also saw one with three of the others in Other Possibilities (including Oppenheimer himself, Cillian Murphy). For Supporting Actress, it was 1 and then 2 in Other Possibilities (including victor Da’Vine Joy Randolph for The Holdovers). Finally, in Supporting Actor, it was one in the projected quintet with three in Other Possibilities and that includes Robert Downey Jr. for Oppenheimer.

Let’s get those caveats out of the way. Some of the performers predicted in lead will end up in supporting and vice versa. That happened in 2023 when I had Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon) at #1 in Supporting Actress and then she ended up being campaigned for and was nominated in Best Actress. Some of the movies will get pushed back to 2025. There’s a few from my first projections in April 2023 that were supposed to come out that year. You’ll find them listed below and that list includes heavy hitters like Dune: Part Two, Blitz, Challengers, The Nickel Boys, The Piano Lesson, Nightbitch, and The Fire Inside to name a few.

You can expect these predictions to be updated every couple of weeks before it turns into a weekly post starting in late summer/early fall when festival season goes into overdrive. A smattering of these titles will have reviews up when they premiere at Cannes less than a month from now. They include Bird, Kinds of Kindness, Megalopolis, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, The Apprentice, Emilia Perez, and Horizon: An American Saga.

With all that out of the way – here are those first ranked takes!

BEST PICTURE

Predicted Nominees:

1. Blitz

2. Dune: Part Two

3. Conclave

4. Sing Sing

5. The End

6. Queer

7. The Fire Inside

8. Bird

9. Kinds of Kindness

10. Dídi

Other Possibilities:

11. Joker: Folie à Deux

12. The Apprentice

13. The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat

14. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga

15. Civil War

16. Maria

17. Megalopolis

18. The Piano Lesson

19. Horizon: An America Saga – Chapter 2

20. A Real Pain

21. Here

22. The Nickel Boys

23. Hard Truths

24. Wicked

25. Gladiator II

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Steve McQueen, Blitz

2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two

3. Edward Berger, Conclave

4. Joshua Oppenheimer, The End

5. Rachel Morrison, The Fire Inside

Other Possibilities:

6. Luca Guadagnino, Queer

7. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing

8. Yorgos Lanthimos, Kinds of Kindness

9. Andrea Arnold, Bird

10. Todd Phillips, Joker: Folie à Deux

11. George Miller, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga

12. Sean Wang, Dídi

13. Alex Garland, Civil War

14. Francis Ford Coppola, Megalopolis

15. Ali Abbisi, The Apprentice

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Angelina Jolie, Maria

2. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz

3. Ryan Destiny, The Fire Inside

4. Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie á Deux

5. Tilda Swinton, The End

Other Possibilities:

6. Amy Adams, Nightbitch

7. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths

8. Uzo Aduba, The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat

9. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Perez

10. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun

11. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night

12. Anne Hathaway, Mother Mary

13. Zendaya, Challengers

14. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked

15. Noemie Merlant, Emmanuelle

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing

2. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave

3. Barry Keoghan, Bird

4. Daniel Craig, Queer

5. André Holland, The Actor

Other Possibilities:

6. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie à Deux

7. George MacKay, The End

8. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice

9. Glen Powell, Hit Man

10. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson

11. Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Two

12. Adam Driver, Megalopolis

13. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man

14. Paul Bettany, The Collaboration

15. Kingsley Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Joan Chen, Dídi

2. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave

3. Erin Kellyman, Blitz

4. Lesley Manville, Queer

5. Hong Chau, Kinds of Kindness

Other Possibilities:

6. Jodie Comer, The Bikeriders

7. Maria Bakalova, The Apprentice

8. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, The Nickel Boys

9. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson

10. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat

11. Zoe Saldana, Emilia Perez

12. Cailee Spaeny, Civil War

13. Naomi Watts, Emmanuelle

14. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters

15. Margaret Qualley, Kinds of Kindness

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Stanley Tucci, Conclave

2. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing

3. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside

4. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain

5. Leigh Gill, Blitz

Other Possibilities:

6. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice

7. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson

8. Drew Starkey, Queer

9. Harris Dickinson, Blitz

10. Adam Pearson, A Different Man

11. John Lithgow, Conclave

12. Forest Whitaker, Megalopolis

13. Paul Raci, Sing Sing

14. Austin Butler, Dune: Part Two

15. Edgar Ramirez, Emilia Perez

As always, keep an eye on the blog for future updates and Oscar Prediction posts focusing in various pictures as they screen!

97th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Director

We are over a month removed from the 96th Academy Awards airing so that means it’s time to start speculating on the 97th. These are my initial glimpses at the four acting races, Director, and Picture and they will unfold on the blog over the next few days. I already posted my first takes on the acting derbies and they can be perused here:

97th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Actress
97th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Actor
97th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Supporting Actress
97th Academy Awards: FIRST Oscar Predictions in Best Supporting Actor

We now move to Director. When I did my first picks on the competition in 2023, it yielded the winner with Christopher Nolan for Oppenheimer as well as Martin Scorsese (Killers of the Flower Moon). Under the 10 other possibilities, I named Yorgos Lanthimos of Poor Things. I did not identify Jonathan Glazer (The Zone of Interest) or Justine Triet (Anatomy of a Fall) at the early juncture.

Let’s start with an obvious caveat… it’s early. Some movies listed are likely to be pushed back or simply not turn out as awards contenders.

In 2021, one of the biggest shockers of nomination morning was Denis Villeneuve being left out of Best Director for Dune. I don’t have history repeating itself as the filmmaker makes my initial quintet for the sequel. So does Edward Berger, who was surprisingly snubbed in 2022 for All Quiet on the Western Front.

Here’s the first snapshot…

TODD’S FIRST OSCAR PREDICTION FOR BEST DIRECTOR AT THE 97TH ACADEMY AWARDS:

Edward Berger, Conclave

Steve McQueen, Blitz

Rachel Morrison, The Fire Inside

Joshua Oppenheimer, The End

Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two

Other Possibilities:

Ali Abbasi, The Apprentice

Andrea Arnold, Bird

Francis Ford Coppola, Megalopolis

Alex Garland, Civil War

Luca Guadagnino, Queer

Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing

Yorgos Lanthimos, Kinds of Kindness

George Miller, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga

Todd Phillips, Joker: Folie à Deux

Sean Wang, Dídi

Best Picture is up next!

Dune: Part Two Box Office Prediction

Dune: Part Two looks to storm the box office when it debuts on March 1st with what should easily be the largest debut so far in 2024. Denis Villeneuve returns as director with Timothée Chalamet, Zendaya, Rebecca Ferguson, Josh Brolin, Stellan Skarsgård, Dave Bautista, Stephen McKinley Henderson, Charlotte Rampling, and Javier Bardem back in action. Newcomers to the franchise include Austin Butler, Florence Pugh, Christopher Walken, Léa Seydoux, and Anya Taylor Joy.

The follow-up to the 2021 original could double its opening. As you may recall, Dune experienced a COVID delay from fall 2020 to fall 2021. The pandemic still limited its potential as it simultaneously premiered on Max. That resulted in a $41 million start which was quite impressive for that period of time. It wrapped up its run at $110 million domestically.

At its low end, Part Two is expected to take in $60 million out of the gate. Reviews for the continuation of Frank Herbert’s source material top part one and it’s currently at 98% on RT with plenty of Oscar nominations expected months down the road. The high end of its range is $80 million or even $90 million.

I am forecasting this could get to the low to mid 80s for the aforementioned double up of its predecessor with a little room to spare.

Dune: Part Two opening weekend prediction: $83.6 million

Oscar Predictions – Dune: Part Two

In 2021, Denis Villeneuve’s vision of Dune generated 10 Oscar nods and six victories. The eagerly awaited Dune: Part Two sweeps into theaters on March 1 (this time with no simultaneous release date on Max). It is expected to outdo its predecessor in terms of box office numbers (my financial estimate is hitting the blog shortly). Part Two may also match or exceed the original’s nomination count.

The review embargo lifted today and the current RT score is a dazzling 97%. That’s up over the 83% that Dune had. Many critics claim it improves upon part one in every way. Villeneuve returns to direct. Among the sprawling cast, we have Timothée Chalamet, Zendaya, Rebecca Ferguson, Josh Brolin, Stellan Skarsgård, Dave Bautista, Stephen McKinley Henderson, Charlotte Rampling, and Javier Bardem back in the mix. Newcomers to the franchise include Austin Butler, Florence Pugh, Christopher Walken, Léa Seydoux, and Anya Taylor Joy.

At the 94th Academy Awards, Dune‘s took gold in tech races Cinematography, Film Editing, Original Score, Production Design, Sound, and Visual Effects. Had Part Two not been pushed from 2023 to 2024, it would likely be in serious competition with Oppenheimer and others in those competitions. It would have Visual Effects locked up. Dune ’21 also had nominations for Best Picture, Adapted Screenplay, Costume Design, and Makeup & Hairstyling.

Let’s be clear. Based on the reaction out today, Part Two should vie for inclusion in all those categories… and more. You may recall that Villeneuve was notably snubbed in Director three years back. The Academy might make up for that this time around.

Then there’s the actors and that’s trickier. Ferguson got a little ink as a possibility for Supporting Actress for Dune. For the sequel, expect the same for Chalamet and especially Butler as the villainous Feyd-Rautha. It is also possible the cast will be ignored. For the Lord of the Rings trilogy, only Ian McKellen ever managed a nomination for the initial chapter.

Bottom line: Part Two looks like 2024’s first surefire contender in BP and much more (it is hard to imagine it losing derbies like Cinematography and Visual Effects). The 96th ceremony hasn’t aired yet, but the 97th seems to have truly started with this embargo lapsing. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

2023 Oscar Predictions: August 28th Edition

You could correctly call this Oscar Predictions post the calm before the festival storm as Venice kicks off this week with Telluride and Toronto right behind it. Yet a major development occurred last week as the sands of time are moving slower for Denis Villeneuve’s Dune: Part Two. The epic sequel was pushed back to the spring of 2024.

How big of an impact does that make for my forecasts? A heavy one as I had it achieving 11 nominations. In my previous projections on August 16th, that was second only to Oppenheimer‘s 12. I had it ranked 1st in Makeup and Hairstyling and Visual Effects, 2nd in Costume Design, Film Editing, Original Score, Production Design, and Sound, 3rd in Picture and Director, and 4th for Adapted Screenplay.

In fact, a victory for Dune in Visual Effects was probably the easiest race to call this early (its predecessor won too). Now it makes the VE contest quite interesting. Oppenheimer could take the prize and mark Christopher Nolan’s second win in a row in the category after 2020’s Tenet. It opens the door wider for The Creator from Gareth Edwards. And there’s now more of a shot for the MCU to nab its first statue in VE for Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 in particular.

I plan to do my next update on Labor Day (September 4th). By that time, we will have reviews and buzz from Venice premieres including Ferrari, Maestro, Poor Things, Priscilla, and The Killer. We’ll also have the word out for whatever pics debut at Telluride (to be announced Thursday).

Right after that update on the 4th, the rest of the Venice titles and a slew of Toronto movies will be unveiled. They include The Holdovers, Rustin, Dumb Money, Next Goal Wins, Society of the Snow, Origin, Pain Hustlers, Nyad, Lee, American Fiction, The Burial, and Hit Man.

In other words… it’s about to get really interesting, folks! I’m also dropping some titles that I’m just not sure are actually releasing in 2023 like The Piano Lesson. Obviously, it will re-enter the dance if there’s confirmation on a release this year. Questions persist about other ones. Is Long Day’s Journey Into Night happening before December 31st? Is Shirley or Freud’s Last Session? Will other currently scheduled releases pull a Dune? The answer is likely affirmative.

With the Dune shift, Air moves back into my BP 10 and Bradley Cooper (Maestro) is in Director over Denis Villeneuve. In non-Dune related shifts, Sandra Huller is now #1 in Actress over The Color Purple‘s Fantasia Barrino. Charles Melton from May December hits my Supporting Actor five over Willem Dafoe (Poor Things).

You can read all the movement below and my next update with the Venice buzz arrives in a week!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Killers of the Flower Moon (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (E)

3. Past Lives (PR: 4) (+1)

4. The Color Purple (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Maestro (PR: 5) (E)

6. The Zone of Interest (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Barbie (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Poor Things (PR: 9) (E)

10. Air (PR: 12) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

11. Saltburn (PR: 11) (E)

12. The Holdovers (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 15) (+2)

14. Napoleon (PR: 14) (E)

15. Ferrari (PR: 16) (+1)

16. The Killer (PR: 17) (+1)

17. May December (PR: 20) (+3)

18. Asteroid City (PR: 18) (E)

19. One Life (PR: 21) (+2)

20. Next Goal Wins (PR: 19) (-1)

21. Rustin (PR: 24) (+3)

22. The Nickel Boys (PR: 22) (E)

23. Dumb Money (PR: 25) (+2)

24. Origin (PR: Not Ranked)

25. The Book of Clarence (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Dune: Part Two

The Piano Lesson

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (E)

3. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 6) (E)

7. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Blitz Bazawule, The Color Purple (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 9) (E)

10. Emerald Fennell, Saltburn (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Ridley Scott, Napoleon (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Michael Mann, Ferrari (PR: 15) (+2)

14. David Fincher, The Killer (PR: 14) (E)

15. Wes Anderson, Asteroid City (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 3) (E)

4. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 1) (-3)

5. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Kate Winslet, Lee (PR: 9) (E)

10. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 10) (E)

11. Caille Spaeny, Priscilla (PR: 11) (E)

12. Aunjanue Ellis, Origin (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Regina King, Shirley (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Teyana Taylor, A Thousand and One (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Saoirse Ronan, Foe (PR: 13) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Helen Mirren, Golda

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 4) (E)

5. Barry Keoghan, Saltburn (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 6) (E)

7. Teo Yoo, Past Lives (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Anthony Hopkins, One Life (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Joaquin Phoenix, Napoleon (PR: 9) (E)

10. Kingsley Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 7) (-3)

11. Michael Fassbender, Next Goal Wins (PR: 11) (E)

12. Adam Driver, Ferrari (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Matt Damon, Air (PR: 12) (-1)

14. David Strathairn, A Little Prayer (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Koji Yakusho, Perfect Days (PR: 14) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Anthony Hopkins, Freud’s Last Session

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 2) (E)

3. Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple (PR: 3) (E)

4. Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer (PR: 4) (E)

5. Viola Davis, Air (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 6) (E)

7. Rosamund Pike, Saltburn (PR: 7) (E)

8. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 8) (E)

9. Aunjanue Ellis, The Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (E)

10. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 10) (E)

11. Helena Bonham-Carter, One Life (PR: 11) (E)

12. Penelope Cruz, Ferrari (PR: 14) (+2)

13. Claire Foy, All of Us Strangers (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Vanessa Kirby, Napoleon (PR: 12) (-2)

15. Niecy Nash-Betts, Origin (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson

Lashana Lynch, Bob Marley: One Love

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 3) (E)

4. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 4) (E)

5. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Colman Domingo, The Color Purple (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Glenn Howerton, BlackBerry (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Jesse Plemons, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Ben Affleck, Air (PR: 14) (+3)

12. Matt Bomer, Maestro (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Matt Damon, Oppenheimer (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Richard E. Grant, Saltburn (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Glynn Turman, Rustin (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson

Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Past Lives (PR: 1) (E)

2. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 2) (E)

3. Maestro (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Air (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Saltburn (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Holdovers (PR: 6) (E)

7. May December (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Asteroid City (PR: 8) (E)

9. Fair Play (PR: 9) (E)

10. Rustin (PR: 10) (E)

11. Napoleon (PR: 11) (E)

12. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 12) (E)

13. The Book of Clarence (PR: 13) (E)

14. The Iron Claw (PR: 14) (E)

15. A Thousand and One (PR: 15) (E)

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (E)

3. Barbie (PR: 3) (E)

4. Poor Things (PR: 6) (+2)

5. The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Color Purple (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 10) (+2)

8. One Life (PR: 9) (+1)

9. BlackBerry (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Next Goal Wins (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Origin (PR: Not Ranked)

12. The Nickel Boys (PR: 12) (E)

13. Dumb Money (PR: 13) (E)

14. The Killer (PR: 15) (+1)

15. All of Us Strangers (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Dune: Part Two

The Piano Lesson

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Zone of Interest (PR: 1) (E)

2. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 2) (E)

3. About Dry Grasses (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Taste of Things (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Monster (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Fallen Leaves (PR: 7) (+1)

7. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Perfect Days (PR: Not Ranked)

9. La Chimera (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Society of the Snow (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

El Conde

The Delinquents

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 2) (E)

3. Elemental (PR: 3) (E)

4. Wish (PR: 4) (E)

5. Nimona (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Robot Dreams (PR: 8) (E)

9. Ernest and Celestine: A Trip to Gibberitia (PR: 9) (E)

10. They Shot the Piano Player (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Super Mario Bros. Movie

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Beyond Utopia (PR: 1) (E)

2. Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie (PR: 2) (E)

3. 20 Days in Mariupol (PR: 3) (E)

4. Every Body (PR: 5) (+1)

5. The Eternal Memory (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Mother of All Lies (PR: 6) (E)

7. Orlando, A Political Biography (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Stamped from the Beginning (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Wild Life (PR: 9) (E)

10. The Deepest Breath (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Black Ice

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Maestro (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Poor Things (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Napoleon (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Color Purple (PR: 8) (+2)

7. The Zone of Interest (PR: 6) (-1)

8. The Killer (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Ferrari (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Asteroid City (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Dune: Part Two

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)

2. Poor Things (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Napoleon (PR: 5) (+2)

4. The Color Purple (PR: 4) (E)

5. Chevalier (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 6) (E)

7. Asteroid City (PR: 7) (E)

8. Oppenheimer (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Priscilla (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Wonka (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Dune: Part Two

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Maestro (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Air (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Past Lives (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Zone of Interest (PR: 9) (+3)

7. The Killer (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Ferrari (PR: 7) (-2)

10. The Color Purple (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Dune: Part Two

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Poor Things (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Maestro (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Barbie (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Golda (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Oppenheimer (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Priscilla (PR: 5) (-3)

9. The Color Purple (PR: Not Ranked

10. Beau is Afraid (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Dune: Part Two

Wonka

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Elemental (PR: 4) (+1)

4. The Killer (PR: 9) (+5)

5. Past Lives (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 10) (+4)

7. The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Napoleon (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Asteroid City (PR: 8) (-1)

10. One Life (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Dune: Part Two

Poor Things

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. TBD from The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)

2. “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie (PR: 2) (E)

3. “The Wish” from Wish (PR: 3) (E)

4. “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie (PR: 5) (+1)

5. “Road to Freedom” from Rustin (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Quiet Eyes” from Past Lives (PR: 4) (-2)

7. “Gonna Be You” from 80 for Brady (PR: 6) (-1)

8. “Dance the Night” from Barbie (PR: 7) (-1)

9. “Steal the Show” from Elemental (PR: 8) (-1)

10. “Joan Still” from Theater Camp (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

“Am I Dreaming?” from Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Poor Things (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Barbie (PR: 3) (E)

4. Oppenheimer (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Napoleon (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities

6. Asteroid City (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Color Purple (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Maestro (PR: 9) (+1)

9. The Zone of Interest (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Saltburn (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Dune: Part Two

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Napoleon (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 7) (+4)

4. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 5) (+1)

5. The Color Purple (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Ferrari (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Maestro (PR: 8) (+1)

8. The Zone of Interest (PR: Not Ranked)

9. The Killer (PR: 9) (E)

10. The Creator (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Dune: Part Two

Barbie

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (+1)

2. The Creator (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 3) (E)

4. Rebel Moon (PR: Not Ranked)

5. Napoleon (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities

6. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (PR: 6) (E)

7. Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Barbie (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Wonka (PR: 8) (-1)

10. The Little Mermaid (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Dune: Part Two

Killers of the Flower Moon

Blue Beetle

That means I’m predicting the following numbers of nominations for these pictures:

12 Nominations

Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer

8 Nominations

Barbie, Maestro

7 Nominations

The Color Purple, Past Lives, Poor Things

5 Nominations

Napoleon

4 Nominations

Air, Anatomy of a Fall, The Zone of Interest

2 Nominations

Elemental, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Rustin, Saltburn, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, Wish

1 Nomination

About Dry Grasses, Beyond Utopia, The Boy and the Heron, Chevalier, The Creator, The Eternal Memory, Every Body, The Killer, May December, Monster, Nimona, Rebel Moon, Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie, The Taste of Things, 20 Days in Mariupol

2023 Oscar Predictions: August 16th Edition

It’s looking like Netflix is going all in on Bradley Cooper’s Maestro being their main contender for awards love in 2023. With its first trailer out this week, the biopic is the biggest riser in Best Picture. Additionally, Carey Mulligan joins the Best Actress field with Annette Bening (Nyad) falling out.

Supporting Actress also sees a change as Viola Davis (Air) is back in over Rosamud Pike for Saltburn. It’s not a good update for Emerald Fennell’s sophomore feature as it also drops from BP with Poor Things returning.

In another significant development, Cillian Murphy’s work in Oppenheimer rises to #1 in Best Actor for the first time over Leonardo DiCaprio (Killers of the Flower Moon).

You can expect one more update at month’s end before the Venice, Telluride, and Toronto festivals arrive and dramatically reshape the race. That’s where we’ll catch our first glimpses and see first reactions to many contenders. They include Maestro, Poor Things, Rustin, The Killer, Ferrari, Priscilla, El Conde, Dumb Money, Nyad, Lee, One Life, Next Goal Wins, and more.

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Killers of the Flower Moon (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)

2. Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (E)

3. Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (E)

4. Past Lives (PR: 4) (E)

5. Maestro (PR: 8) (+3)

6. The Color Purple (PR: 5) (-1)

7. The Zone of Interest (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Poor Things (PR: 11) (+2)

10. Barbie (PR: 10) (E)

Other Possibilities:

11. Saltburn (PR: 7) (-4)

12. Air (PR: 12) (E)

13. The Holdovers (PR: 13) (E)

14. Napoleon (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 14) (-1)

16. Ferrari (PR: 18) (+2)

17. The Killer (PR: 16) (-1)

18. Asteroid City (PR: 19) (+1)

19. Next Goal Wins (PR: 20) (+1)

20. May December (PR: 17) (-3)

21. One Life (PR: Not Ranked)

22. The Nickel Boys (PR: 23) (+1)

23. The Piano Lesson (PR: 22) (-1)

24. Rustin (PR: 21) (-3)

25. Dumb Money (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Bob Marley: One Love

Priscilla

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (E)

3. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (E)

4. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 8) (E)

9. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 11) (+2)

10. Blitz Bazawule, The Color Purple (PR: 6) (-4)

11. Emerald Fennell, Saltburn (PR: 9) (-2)

12. Ridley Scott, Napoleon (PR: 12) (E)

13. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 13) (E)

14. David Fincher, The Killer (PR: 14) (E)

15. Michael Mann, Ferrari (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Wes Anderson, Asteroid City

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 8) (+4)

5. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Kate Winslet, Lee (PR: 11) (+2)

10. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 6) (-4)

11. Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Regina King, Shirley (PR: 12) (E)

13. Saoirse Ronan, Foe (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Helen Mirren, Golda (PR: 14) (E)

15. Teyana Taylor, A Thousand and One (PR: 15) (E)

Dropped Out:

Emily Blunt, Pain Hustlers

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 3) (E)

4. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 4) (E)

5. Barry Keoghan, Saltburn (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 6) (E)

7. Kingsley Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Teo Yoo, Past Lives (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Joaquin Phoenix, Napoleon (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Anthony Hopkins, One Life (PR: 10) (E)

11. Michael Fassbender, Next Goal Wins (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Matt Damon, Air (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Adam Driver, Ferrari (PR: 13) (E)

14. Koji Yakusho, Perfect Days (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Anthony Hopkins, Freud’s Last Session (PR: 14) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Ed Harris, Long Day’s Journey Into Night

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 2) (E)

3. Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple (PR: 3) (E)

4. Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Viola Davis, Air (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 6) (E)

7. Rosamund Pike, Saltburn (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 8) (E)

9. Aunjanue Ellis, The Nickel Boys (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Helena Bonham Carter, One Life (PR: 13) (+2)

1.2 Vanessa Kirby, Napoleon (PR: 15) (+3)

13. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 12 ) (-1)

14. Penelope Cruz, Ferrari (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Lashana Lynch, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Audra McDonald, Rustin

America Ferrera, Barbie

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 3) (E)

4. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 4) (E)

5. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Colman Domingo, The Color Purple (PR: 6) (E)

7. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 7) (E)

8. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 8) (E)

9. Glenn Howerton, BlackBerry (PR: 11) (+2)

10. Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers (PR: 10) (E)

11. Jesse Plemons, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 9) (-2)

12. Matt Damon, Oppenheimer (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Matt Bomer, Maestro (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Ben Affleck, Air (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (PR: 12) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Glynn Turman, Rustin

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Past Lives (PR: 1) (E)

2. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Saltburn (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Maestro (PR: 7) (+3)

5. May December (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Holdovers (PR: 6) (E)

7. Air (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Asteroid City (PR: 8) (E)

9. Fair Play (PR: 13) (+4)

10. Rustin (PR: 10 (E)

11. Napoleon (PR: 9) (-2)

12. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 15) (+3)

13. The Book of Clarence (PR: 11) (-2)

14. The Iron Claw (PR: 14) (E)

15. A Thousand and One (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Bob Marley: One Love

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (E)

3. Barbie (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 5) (+1)

5. The Zone of Interest (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Poor Things (PR: 3) (-3)

7. The Color Purple (PR: 6) (-1)

8. BlackBerry (PR: 10) (+2)

9. One Life (PR: 14) (+5)

10. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 8) (-2)

11. Next Goal Wins (PR: 9) (-2)

12. The Nickel Boys (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Dumb Money (PR: Not Ranked)

14. The Piano Lesson (PR: 12) (-2)

15. The Killer (PR: 13) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Ferrari

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Zone of Interest (PR: 1) (E)

2. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 2) (E)

3. About Dry Grasses (PR: 3) (E)

4. Monster (PR: 4) (E)

5.The Taste of Things (formerly The Pot-Au-Feu) (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 6) (E)

7. Fallen Leaves (PR: 8) (+1)

8. El Conde (PR: 7) (-1)

9. The Delinquents (PR: 9) (E)

10. La Chimera (PR: 10) (E)

Best Animated Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 2) (E)

3. Elemental (PR: 3) (E)

4. Wish (PR: 4) (E)

5. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Nimona (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Robot Dreams (PR: 8) (E)

9. Ernest and Celestine: A Trip to Gibberitia (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Super Mario Bros. Movie (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Beyond Utopia (PR: 1) (E)

2. Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie (PR: 2) (E)

3. 20 Days in Mariupol (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Eternal Memory (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Every Body (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Mother of All Lies (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Stamped from the Beginning (PR: 5) (-2)

8. The Deepest Breath (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Wild Life (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Black Ice (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Kokomo City

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (E)

3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)

4. Maestro (PR: 10) (+6)

5. Napoleon (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Poor Things (PR: 8) (+1)

8. The Color Purple (PR: 6) (-2)

9. The Killer (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Ferrari (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Color Purple (PR: 4) (E)

5. Napoleon (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 6) (E)

7. Asteroid City (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Chevalier (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Oppenheimer (PR: 9) (E)

10. Priscilla (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Wonka

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)

4. Maestro (PR: 8) (+4)

5. Air (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Past Lives (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Ferrari (PR: 5) (-2)

8. The Killer (PR: 10) (+2)

9. The Zone of Interest (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Color Purple (PR: 9) (E)

Dropped Out:

Saltburn

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)

3. Guardians of the Glaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Maestro (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Priscilla (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Barbie (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Golda (PR: 8) (E)

9. Beau is Afraid (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Wonka (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Color Purple

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)

4. Elemental (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Zone of Interest (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Past Lives (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Poor Things (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Asteroid City (PR: 10) (+2)

9. The Killer (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 6) (-4)

Dropped Out:

Napoleon

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. TBD from The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)

2. “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie (PR: 2) (E)

3. “The Wish” from Wish (PR: 3) (E)

4. “Quiet Eyes” from Past Lives (PR: 9) (+5)

5. “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Gonna Be You” from 80 for Brady (PR: 6) (E)

7. “Dance the Night” from Barbie (PR: 8) (+1)

8. “Steal the Show” from Elemental (PR: 7) (-1)

9. “Am I Dreaming?” from Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: Not Ranked)

10. “Joan Still” from Theater Camp (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

TBD from The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Barbie (PR: 3) (E)

4. Poor Things (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Oppenheimer (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Asteroid City (PR: 6) (E)

7. Napoleon (PR: 8) (+1)

8. The Color Purple (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Maestro (PR: 10) (+1)

10. The Zone of Interest (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Napoleon (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Ferrari (PR: 10) (+6)

5. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Color Purple (PR: 3) (-3)

7. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Maestro (PR: 7) (-1)

9. The Killer (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Barbie (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

The Zone of Interest

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (E)

3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Creator (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Napoleon (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (PR: 6) (E)

7. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 7) (E)

8. Wonka (PR: 8) (E)

9. Blue Beetle (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Barbie

That means I’m projecting these numbers of nominations for these films:

12 Nominations

Oppenheimer

11 Nominations

Dune: Part Two

10 Nominations

Killers of the Flower Moon

7 Nominations

Barbie, Maestro

6 Nominations

The Color Purple, Past Lives, Poor Things

5 Nominations

The Zone of Interest

4 Nominations

Anatomy of a Fall, Napoleon

2 Nominations

Air, Elemental, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Saltburn, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, Wish

1 Nomination

20 Days in Mariupol, About Dry Grasses, Beyond Utopia, The Boy and the Heron, The Creator, The Eternal Memory, Every Body, Ferrari, May December, Monster, Priscilla, Rustin, Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie, The Taste of Things, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem

2023 Oscar Predictions: August 2nd Edition

The box office and critical phenomenon known as Barbenheimer looms large over my first August Oscar predictions. I toyed with moving Oppenheimer and its maker Christopher Nolan to the #1 spots in BP and Director. They sit in second with Martin Scorsese’s Killers of the Flower Moon clinging to the top. On the other hand, Robert Downey Jr.’s work in Oppenheimer is now first over Robert De Niro from Killers.

Meanwhile, I have finally put Barbie in my ten BP contenders and that takes out Air. While it materializes in the big race, I’m still keeping Greta Gerwig and Margot Robbie out of Director and Actress, respectively.

We are a month away from the triumvirate of Venice, Telluride, and Toronto. They will undoubtedly shape and alter what you read below. Here’s where I believe it stands right now.

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Killers of the Flower Moon (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Past Lives (PR: 2) (-2)

5. The Color Purple (PR: 5) (E)

6. The Zone of Interest (PR: 6) (E)

7. Saltburn (PR: 7) (E)

8. Maestro (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Barbie (PR: 11) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

11. Poor Things (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Air (PR: 9) (-3)

13. The Holdovers (PR: 14) (+1)

14. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Napoleon (PR: 15) (E)

16. The Killer (PR: 21) (+5)

17. May December (PR: 15) (-1)

18. Ferrari (PR: 22) (+4)

19. Asteroid City (PR: 17) (-2)

20. Next Goal Wins (PR: 18) (-2)

21. Rustin (PR: 19) (-2)

22. The Piano Lesson (PR: 20) (-2)

23. The Nickel Boys (PR: 24) (+1)

24. Bob Marley: One Love (PR: Not Ranked)

25. Priscilla (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

BlackBerry

The Book of Clarence

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (E)

3. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (E)

4. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: 5 (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Blitz Bazawule, The Color Purple (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Emerald Fennell, Saltburn (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 11) (E)

12. Ridley Scott, Napoleon (PR: 12) (E)

13. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 13) (E)

14. David Fincher, The Killer (PR: 14) (E)

15. Wes Anderson, Asteroid City (PR: 15) (E)

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)

2. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 3) (E)

4. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla (PR: 10) (E)

11. Kate Winslet, Lee (PR: 11) (E)

12. Regina King, Shirley (PR: 12) (E)

13. Emily Blunt, Pain Hustlers (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Helen Mirren, Golda (PR: 14) (E)

15. Teyana Taylor, A Thousand and One (PR: 13) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Judy Greer, Eric Larue

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Barry Keoghan, Saltburn (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 6) (E)

7. Teo Yoo, Past Lives (PR: 10) (+4)

8. Joaquin Phoenix, Napoleon (PR: 8) (E)

9. Kingsley Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 9) (E)

10. Anthony Hopkins, One Life (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Matt Damon, Air (PR: 11) (E)

12. Michael Fassbender, Next Goal Wins (PR: 12) (E)

13. Adam Driver, Ferrari (PR: 15) (+2)

14. Anthony Hopkins, Freud’s Last Session (PR: 7) (-7)

15. Ed Harris, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 13) (-2)

Dropped Out:

David Strathairn, A Little Prayer

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 2) (E)

3. Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple (PR: 3) (E)

4. Rosamund Pike, Saltburn (PR: 8) (+4)

5. Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 6) (E)

7. Viola Davis, Air (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 9) (E)

10. Aunjanue Ellis, The Nickel Boys (PR: 10) (E)

11. Audra McDonald, Rustin (PR: 13) (+2)

12. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Helena Bonham-Carter, One Life (PR: Not Ranked)

14. America Ferrera, Barbie (PR: 12) (-2)

15. Vanessa Kirby, Napoleon (PR: 14) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Rachel McAdams, Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (+2)

2. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 2) (-1)

4. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 4) (E)

5. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Colman Domingo, The Color Purple (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 7) (E)

8. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 8) (E)

9. Jesse Plemons, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 12) (+3)

10. Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers (PR: 15) (+5)

11. Glenn Howerton, BlackBerry (PR: 11) (E)

12. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (PR: 14) (+2)

13. Matt Damon, Oppenheimer (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Glynn Turman, Rustin (PR: 10) (-4)

15. Ben Affleck, Air (PR: 9) (-6)

Dropped Out:

Matt Bomer, Maestro

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Past Lives (PR: 1) (E)

2. Saltburn (PR: 2) (E)

3. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 3) (E)

4. Air (PR: 4) (E)

5. May December (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Holdovers (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Maestro (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Asteroid City (PR: 8) (E)

9. Napoleon (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Rustin (PR: 9) (-1)

11. The Book of Clarence (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Bob Marley: One Love (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Fair Play (PR: 14) (+1)

14. The Iron Claw (PR: 15) (+1)

15. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 13) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Drive Away Dolls

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (E)

3. Poor Things (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Barbie (PR: 4) (E)

5. Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Color Purple (PR: 7) (+1)

7. The Zone of Interest (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 8) (E)

9. Next Goal Wins (PR: 13) (+4)

10. BlackBerry (PR: 9) (-1)

11. The Nickel Boys (PR: 12) (+1)

12. The Piano Lesson (PR: 10) (-2)

13. The Killer (PR: 11) (-2)

14. One Life (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Ferrari (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Dumb Money

Freud’s Last Session

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Zone of Interest (PR: 1) (E)

2. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 2) (E)

3. About Dry Grasses (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Monster (PR: 3) (-1)

5. The Pot-Au-Feu (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 6) (E)

7. El Conde (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Fallen Leaves (PR: 9) (+1)

9. The Delinquents (PR: 8) (-1)

10. La Chimera (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Perfect Days

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 2) (E)

3. Elemental (PR: 3) (E)

4. Wish (PR: 4) (E)

5. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Nimona (PR: 6) (E)

7. Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Robot Dreams (PR: 8) (E)

9. The Super Mario Bros. Movie (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Magnificent Life of Marcel Pagnol

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Beyond Utopia (PR: 1) (E)

2. Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie (PR: 2) (E)

3. 20 Days in Mariupol (PR: 6) (+3)

4. The Mother of All Lies (PR: 4) (E)

5. Stamped from the Beginning (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Every Body (PR: 7) (+1)

7. The Eternal Memory (PR: 3) (-4)

8. Wild Life (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Kokomo City (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Black Ice (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

It Ain’t Over

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)

4. Napoleon (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Zone of Interest (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Color Purple (PR: 5) (-1)

7. The Killer (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Poor Things (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Ferrari (PR: 9) (E)

10. Maestro (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Asteroid City

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Poor Things (PR: 4) (+1)

4. The Color Purple (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Napoleon (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Chevalier (PR: 7) (E)

8. Wonka (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Oppenheimer (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Priscilla (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Asteroid City

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (+2)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Past Lives (PR: 4) (E)

5. Ferrari (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Air (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Saltburn (PR: 7) (E)

8. Maestro (PR: 8) (E)

9. The Color Purple (PR: 6) (-3)

10. The Killer (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Napoleon

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)

3. Maestro (PR: 3) (E)

4. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 4) (E)

5. Barbie (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 6) (E)

7. Priscilla (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Golda (PR: 7) (-1)

9. The Color Purple (PR: 9) (E)

10. Beau is Afraid (PR: 8) (-2)

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Elemental (PR: 4) (E)

5. Past Lives (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 7) (+1)

7. The Zone of Interest (PR: 9) (+2)

8. The Killer (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Napoleon (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Asteroid City (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Poor Things

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. TBD from The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)

2. “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie (PR: 3) (+1)

3. “The Wish” from Wish (PR: 2) (-1)

4. “Just Ken” from Barbie (PR: 4) (E)

5. TBD from The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Gonna Be You” from 80 for Brady (PR: 6) (E)

7. “Steal the Show” from Elemental (PR: 7) (E)

8. “Dance the Night” from Barbie (PR: 8) (E)

9. “Quiet Eyes” from Past Lives (PR: 9) (E)

10. “Joan Still” from Theater Camp (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

“Am I Dreaming?” from Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Barbie (PR: 6) (+3)

4. Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Poor Things (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Asteroid City (PR: 7) (+1)

7. The Color Purple (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Napoleon (PR: 5) (-3)

9. The Zone of Interest (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Maestro (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Wonka

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Color Purple (PR: 7) (+4)

4. Napoleon (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Maestro (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Barbie (PR: Not Ranked)

9. The Zone of Interest (PR: 9) (E)

10. Ferrari (PR: 6) (-4)

Dropped Out:

The Killer

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (E)

3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 3) (E)

4. Napoleon (PR: 6) (+2)

5. The Creator (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 7) (E)

8. Wonka (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Barbie (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Poor Things

Spaceman

That equates to these movies garnering these numbers of nominations:

12 Nominations

Oppenheimer

11 Nominations

Dune: Part Two

10 Nominations

Killers of the Flower Moon

8 Nominations

Barbie

7 Nominations

The Color Purple, Past Lives

6 Nominations

Poor Things

4 Nominations

Anatomy of a Fall, Napoleon, Saltburn, The Zone of Interest

3 Nominations

Maestro

2 Nominations

Elemental, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, Wish

1 Nomination

20 Days in Mariupol, About Dry Grasses, Air, Beyond Utopia, The Boy and the Heron, The Creator, Ferrari, The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songsbirds and Snakes, May December, Monster, The Mother of All Lies, Nyad, The Pot-Au-Feu, Rustin, Stamped from the Beginning, Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem

2023 Oscar Predictions: July 22nd Edition

It is the weekend of “Barbenheimer” as Greta Gerwig’s Barbie and Christopher Nolan’s Oppenheimer are posting fantastic results at the box office. With their review embargoes lifted, the always to be inextricably linked pics have established themselves as Oscar players.

When I did my previous predictions two weeks ago, one of the questions centered on which performers could be singled out for recognition. Obviously we knew about Cillian Murphy and Margot Robbie and Ryan Gosling’s supporting turn, but what else? The answer it seems is Robert Downey Jr. and Emily Blunt for Oppenheimer and maybe America Ferrera for Barbie. Matt Damon is still worth mentioning for Oppenheimer, but Downey Jr. clearly has the most significant buzz.

And… surprise! This is the first write-up where I am including all races covering feature-length motion pictures. I do so at a precarious time. While “Barbenheimer” is viable in many competitions, the release calendar for the remainder of 2023 is unpredictable.

That is, of course, due to the SAG-AFTRA strike and a fear that it could drag on for weeks or months. On Friday, Luca Guadagnino’s Challengers gave up its prime spot opening the Venice Film Festival and moved from September to April 2024. If you believe it’ll be the last movie to do so, think again. There’s already rumors that Dune: Part Two and/or The Color Purple (two potential heavy hitters) could move to ’24. I am keeping all currently scheduled titles in the mix until I hear different. Just know that some of the projects listed below may not be here for long.

Sometimes a trailer can either boost your hopes for a film’s awards potential or dilute it. I could be wrong, but Alexander Payne’s The Holdovers is an example of the latter when its first look was revealed this week. Soon enough we’ll see if my first impression was on the money.

For these initial projections covering all races, I’ll keep it at 25 possibilities for BP and 15 for the other top of the line derbies (the four acting ones and two screenplay contests). For all others, I will list my top 10.

With all that said, let’s get into it!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Killers of the Flower Moon (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)

2. Past Lives (PR: 2) (E)

3. Oppenheimer (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (-1)

5. The Color Purple (PR: 4) (-1)

6. The Zone of Interest (PR: 6) (E)

7. Saltburn (PR: 7) (E)

8. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 12) (+4)

9. Air (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Maestro (PR: 11) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

11. Barbie (PR: 13) (+2)

12. Poor Things (PR: 9) (-3)

13. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 14) (+1)

14. The Holdovers (PR: 8) (-6)

15. Napoleon (PR: 16) (+1)

16. May December (PR: 15) (-1)

17. Asteroid City (PR: 18) (+1)

18. Next Goal Wins (PR: 20) (+2)

19. Rustin (PR: 21) (+2)

20. The Piano Lesson (PR: 19) (-1)

21. The Killer (PR: 25) (+4)

22. Ferrari (PR: 24) (+2)

23. BlackBerry (PR: Not Ranked)

24. The Nickel Boys (PR: 23) (-1)

25. The Book of Clarence (PR: 22) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Challengers

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 10) (+4)

7. Blitz Bazawule, The Color Purple (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Emerald Fennell, Saltburn (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 12) (+3)

10. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 8) (-3)

12. Ridley Scott, Napoleon (PR: 14) (+2)

13. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 9) (-4)

14. David Fincher, The Killer (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Wes Anderson, Asteroid City (PR: 15) (E)

Dropped Out:

Ben Affleck, Air

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)

2. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Kate Winslet, Lee (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Regina King, Shirley (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Teyana Taylor, A Thousand and One (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Helen Mirren, Golda (PR: 14) (E)

15. Judy Greer, Eric Larue (PR: 15) (E)

Dropped Out:

Zendaya, Challengers

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 2) (E)

3. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Barry Keoghan, Saltburn (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 6) (E)

7. Anthony Hopkins, Freud’s Last Session (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Joaquin Phoenix, Napoleon (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Kingsley Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 9) (E)

10. Teo Yoo, Past Lives (PR: 7) (-3)

11. Matt Damon, Air (PR: 14) (+3)

12. Michael Fassbender, Next Goal Wins (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Ed Harris, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: Not Ranked)

14. David Strathairn, A Little Prayer (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Adam Driver, Ferrari (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Andre Holland, The Actor

Koji Yakusho, Perfect Days

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 2) (E)

3. Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple (PR: 3) (E)

4. Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer (PR: Not Ranked)

5. Viola Davis, Air (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Rosamund Pike, Saltburn (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Aunjanue Ellis, The Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 8) (-3)

12. America Ferrera, Barbie (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Audra McDonald, Rustin (PR: 11) (-2)

14. Vanessa Kirby, Napoleon (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Rachel McAdams, Are You There God? Its Me, Margaret (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Florence Pugh, Oppenheimer

Tilda Swinton, The Killer

Lashana Lynch, Bob Marley: One Love

Rebecca Ferguson, Dune: Part Two

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 7) (+5)

3. Robert Downey, Jr., Oppenheimer (PR: Not Ranked)

4. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Colman Domingo, The Color Purple (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 3) (-4)

8. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Ben Affleck, Air (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Glynn Turman, Rustin (PR: 12) (+2)

11. Glenn Howerton, BlackBerry (PR: 14) (+3)

12. Jesse Plemons, Killers. of the Flower Moon (PR: 9) (-3)

13. Matt Bomer, Maestro (PR: 15) (+2)

14. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (PR: 10) (-4)

15. Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers (PR: 11) (-4)

Dropped Out:

Richard E. Grant, Saltburn

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Past Lives (PR: 1) (E)

2. Saltburn (PR: 2) (E)

3. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 6) (+3)

4. Air (PR: 4) (E)

5. May December (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Maestro (PR: 7) (+1)

7. The Holdovers (PR: 3) (-4)

8. Asteroid City (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Rustin (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Napoleon (PR: 14) (+4)

11. Drive Away Dolls (PR: 13) (+2)

12. The Book of Clarence (PR: 12) (E)

13. The Boy and the Heron (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Fair Play (PR: 11) (-3)

15. The Iron Claw (PR: 15) (E)

Dropped Out:

Challengers

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Barbie (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Poor Things (PR: 2) (-3)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (-1)

7. The Color Purple (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 8) (E)

9. BlackBerry (PR: 14) (+5)

10. The Piano Lesson (PR: 9) (-1)

11. The Killer (PR: 15) (+4)

12. The Nickel Boys (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Next Goal Wins (PR: 10) (-3)

14. Dumb Money (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Freud’s Last Session (PR: 12) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Long Day’s Journey Into Night

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Zone of Interest

2. Anatomy of a Fall

3. Monster

4. About Dry Grasses

5. The Pot-au-Feu

Other Possibilities:

6. The Boy and the Heron

7. Perfect Days

8. The Delinquents

9. Fallen Leaves

10. La Chimera

Best Animated Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

2. The Boy and the Heron

3. Elemental

4. Wish

5. Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget

Other Possibilities:

6. Nimona

7. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem

8. Robot Dreams

9. The Magnificent Life of Marcel Pagnol

10. The Super Mario Bros. Movie

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Beyond Utopia

2. Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie

3. The Eternal Memory

4. The Mother of All Lies

5. Wild Life

Other Possibilities:

6. 20 Days in Mariupol

7. Every Body

8. Kokomo City

9. Black Ice

10. It Ain’t Over

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer

2. Dune: Part Two

3. Killers of the Flower Moon

4. Napoleon

5. The Color Purple

Other Possibilities:

6. The Killer

7. Poor Things

8. The Zone of Interest

9. Ferrari

10. Asteroid City

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Barbie

2. Dune: Part Two

3. The Color Purple

4. Poor Things

5. Killers of the Flower Moon

Other Possibilities:

6. Napoleon

7. Chevalier

8. Oppenheimer

9. Wonka

10. Asteroid City

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two

2. Killers of the Flower Moon

3. Oppenheimer

4. Past Lives

5. Air

Other Possibilities:

6. The Color Purple

7. Saltburn

8. Maestro

9. The Killer

10. Napoleon

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two

2. Poor Things

3. Maestro

4. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3

5. Barbie

Other Possibilities:

6. Killers of the Flower Moon

7. Golda

8. Beau is Afraid

9. The Color Purple

10. Priscilla

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer

2. Killers of the Flower Moon

3. Dune: Part Two

4. Elemental

5. Past Lives

Other Possibilities:

6. Poor Things

7. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

8. Napoleon

9. The Zone of Interest

10. The Killer

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. TBD from “The Color Purple”

2. “The Wish” from Wish

3. “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie

4. “Just Ken” from Barbie

5. TBD from The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes

Other Possibilities:

6. “Gonna Be You” from 80 for Brady

7. “Steal the Show” from Elemental

8. “Dance the Night” from Barbie

9. “Quiet Eyes” From Past Lives

10. “Am I Dreaming?” from Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Killers of the Flower Moon

2. Dune: Part Two

3. Oppenheimer

4. Poor Things

5. Napoleon

Other Possibilities:

6. Barbie

7. Asteroid City

8. The Zone of Interest

9. The Color Purple

10. Wonka

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer

2. Dune: Part Two

3. Napoleon

4. Killers of the Flower Moon

5. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Other Possibilities:

6. Ferrari

7. The Color Purple

8. Maestro

9. The Zone of Interest

10. The Killer

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two

2. Oppenheimer

3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3

4. The Creator

5. Wonka

Other Possibilities:

6. Napoleon

7. Killers of the Flower Moon

8. Poor Things

9. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny

10. Spaceman

And that, ladies and gents, gives us the following number of nominations for these pictures:

12 Nominations

Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer

11 Nominations

Dune: Part Two

8 Nominations

The Color Purple

7 Nominations

Past Lives

6 Nominations

Barbie

5 Nominations

Poor Things

4 Nominations

Air, Anatomy of a Fall

3 Nominations

Maestro, Napoleon, Saltburn, The Zone of Interest

2 Nominations

Elemental, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, Wish

1 Nomination

About Dry Grasses, The Boy and the Heron, Beyond Utopia, Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget, The Creator, The Eternal Memory, The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes, Long Day’s Journey Into Night, May December, Monster, The Mother of All Lies, The Pot-au-Feu, Rustin, Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie, Wild Life, Wonka

2023 Oscar Predictions: July 9th Edition

The first July predictions for the 96th Academy Awards shall be known as the pre Barbie and Oppenheimer edition. They are eagerly awaited efforts from Greta Gerwig and Christopher Nolan, respectively, that are hoping to become giant blockbusters and awards players. July 21st marks the release date for both. When my next forecast arrives in a couple of weeks, reviews and buzz and financial numbers for the pair will be available.

Since June 25th (my previous update), there’s not been too much news. We have some new trailers including Bob Marley: One Love with Kingsley Ben-Adir as the iconic reggae singer. Interestingly all the promotional materials are advertising a January 12th premiere. I’m still assuming it will get a December limited release to qualify for contention. It is something worth keeping an eye on. I will say that I found the trailer to be somewhat lackluster. With the release date confusion, I’ve taken it out of my top 25 in BP while keeping Ben-Adir and Lashana Lynch in their acting derbies.

Frequent readers will know that releases dates are always shifting. I’m putting The Piano Lesson back in the mix even though it might not be out until 2024. You’ll see it emerge back into several competitions below.

Festivals are beginning to tease their lineups. Luca Guadagnino’s Challengers will open Venice in September while Taika Waititi’s Next Goal Wins is tapped for Toronto. Expect plenty more announcement in the coming days and weeks.

In Best Actor, I’ve elevated Leonardo DiCaprio (Killers of the Flower Moon) to #1 over Colman Domingo. That puts Killers atop the charts in Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor, and Adapted Screenplay. We’ll see how long its dominance lasts as other heavy hitters screen over the next few months.

As we await the Barbie and Oppenheimer reactions, here’s my speculation as to where everything stands for the eight top categories.

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Killers of the Flower Moon (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Past Lives (PR: 2) (E)

3. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (+1)

4. The Color Purple (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Oppenheimer (PR: 5) (E)

6. The Zone of Interest (PR: 6) (E)

7. Saltburn (PR: 7) (E)

8. The Holdovers (PR: 8) (E)

9. Poor Things (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Air (PR: 9) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

11. Maestro (PR: 11) (E)

12. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Barbie (PR: 14) (+1)

14. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 12) (-2)

15. May December (PR: 15) (E)

16. Napoleon (PR: 18) (+2)

17. Challengers (PR: 17) (E)

18. Asteroid City (PR: 16) (-2)

19. The Piano Lesson (PR: Not Ranked)

20. Next Goal Wins (PR: Not Ranked)

21. Rustin (PR: 20) (-1)

22. The Book of Clarence (PR: 23) (+1)

23. The Nickel Boys (PR: 22) (-1)

24. Ferrari (PR: 24) (E)

25. The Killer (PR: 21) (-4)

Dropped Out:

Bob Marley: One Love

How Do You Live?

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 3) (E)

4. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Blitz Bazawule, The Color Purple (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Emerald Fennell, Saltburn (PR: 7) (E)

8. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 10) (-2)

13. Ben Affleck, Air (PR: 13) (E)

14. Ridley Scott, Napoleon (PR: 14) (E)

15. Wes Anderson, Asteroid City (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

David Fincher, The Killer

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)

2. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 2) (E)

3. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 6) (E)

7. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Zendaya, Challengers (PR: 8) (-2)

11. Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla (PR: 13) (+2)

12. Kate Winslet, Lee (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Regina King, Shirley (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Helen Mirren, Golda (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Judy Greer, Eric Larue (PR: 15) (E)

Dropped Out:

Teyana Taylor, A Thousand and One

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Barry Keoghan, Saltburn (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Teo Yoo, Past Lives (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Anthony Hopkins, Freud’s Last Session (PR: 8) (E)

9. Kingsley Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 6) (-3)

10. Joaquin Phoenix, Napoleon (PR: 12) (+2)

11. Michael Fassbender, Next Goal Wins (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Andre Holland, The Actor (PR: 15) (+3)

13. David Strathairn, A Little Prayer (PR: 11) (-2)

14. Matt Damon, Air (PR: 10) (-4)

15. Koji Yakusho, Perfect Days (PR: 13) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Ed Harris, Long Day’s Journey Into Night

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 2) (E)

3. Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple (PR: 3) (E)

4. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 4) (E)

5. Viola Davis, Air (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 6) (E)

7. Rosamund Pike, Saltburn (PR: 7) (E)

8. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Aunjanue Ellis, The Nickel Boys (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Audra McDonald, Rustin (PR: 9) (-2)

12. Florence Pugh, Oppenheimer (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Tilda Swinton, The Killer (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Lashana Lynch, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 10) (-4)

15. Rebecca Ferguson, Dune: Part Two (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Halle Bailey, The Color Purple

Vanessa Kirby, Napoleon

Claire Foy, Strangers

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 2) (E)

3. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: Not Ranked)

4. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 4) (E)

5. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Colman Domingo, The Color Purple (PR: 3) (-3)

7. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Ben Affleck, Air (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Jesse Plemons, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 11) (+2)

10. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (PR: 8) (-2)

11. Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers (PR: 9) (-2)

12. Glynn Turman, Rustin (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Richard E. Grant, Saltburn (PR: 10) (-3)

14. Glenn Howerton, BlackBerry (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Matt Bomer, Maestro (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Mike Faist, Challengers

Josh O’Connor, Challengers

Corey Hawkins, The Color Purple

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Past Lives (PR: 1) (E)

2. Saltburn (PR: 3) (+1)

3. The Holdovers (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Air (PR: 4) (E)

5. May December (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Maestro (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Challengers (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Asteroid City (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Rustin (PR: 12) (+2)

11. Fair Play (PR: Not Ranked)

12. The Book of Clarence (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Drive-Away Dolls (PR: 11) (-2)

14. Napoleon (PR: 15) (+1)

15. The Iron Claw (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Barbie (moved to Adapted)

Bob Marley: One Love

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Poor Things (PR: 6) (+4)

3. Oppenheimer (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Zone of Interest (PR: 2) (-3)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Color Purple (PR: 3) (-3)

7. Barbie (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from Original

8. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 7) (-1)

9. The Piano Lesson (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Next Goal Wins (PR: Not Ranked)

11. The Nickel Boys (PR: 8) (-3)

12. Freud’s Last Session (PR: 9) (-3)

13. Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 10) (-3)

14. BlackBerry (PR: Not Ranked)

15. The Killer (PR: 12) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Strangers

The Bikeriders

The Boys in the Boat

Dumb Money