The second major Oscar precursor unfolded today in the Big Apple as the New York Film Critics Circle named their winners for best of 2017. It was a banner day for LadyBird, which won Best Picture and Actress (Saoirse Ronan). The pic was just cemented as Rotten Tomatoes Best reviewed of all time. At this juncture, it would seem Bird will easily fly to a nomination.
Additionally, TheFloridaProject had a strong showing, winning Director (Sean Baker) and Supporting Actor (Willem Dafoe). Mr. Dafoe also took home the NBR prize earlier this week. Three days ago, I took Project out of my nine predicted nominees. We shall see if that changes Monday.
In Actor, it was Timothee Chalamet for CallMebyYourName. It’s worth noting that Gary Oldman in DarkestHour, considered the Academy front runner for Oscar, is 0 for 2 in precursors. Is that a sign of weaknesses? Stay tuned.
The surprise of the day was Tiffany Haddish getting Supporting Actress for GirlsTrip. I’ve yet to list her among my five predicted nominees and have yet to even have her in my top ten possibilities. It’s tough for comedic performances to break through for gold statue recognition, but today helps her case.
PhantomThread took Best Screenplay as its stock continues to rise and Coco (predictably) got Animated Feature.
Bottom line: LadyBird and TheFlorida Project had nice days in the city that never sleeps.
A pair of Oscar winners hope to bring in an older audience next weekend when Just Getting Started premieres. Morgan Freeman and Tommy Lee Jones star as retirees taking on the Mob in this comedy from Ron Shelton, best known for his directorial efforts of the past including Bull Durham and White Men Can’t Jump. Rene Russo, Glenne Headly (in her final film role), and Joe Pantoliano are among the supporting players.
Freeman has been appearing in these geriatric yuck fests with increasing frequency as of late. Earlier in the year, Going in Style debuted to a decent $11.9 million. 2013’s Last Vegas fared even better with an opening north of $16 million. A number similar to Style would seem to be the absolute high bar here. However, I have trouble seeing this getting into double digits.
One big reason: distributor Broad Green Pictures is bankrupt and promotion for Started has been muted at best. A theater count will help shed light on its potential and my estimate could be adjusted accordingly. My initial feeling is that this just gets started in the mid single digits and fades quickly.
Just Getting Started opening weekend prediction: $5.2 million
This afternoon, the National Board of Review bestowed its 2017 honors and it marks the first significant critics group to do so. The NBR has a history and habit of making some outside the box choices in years past for various categories. That didn’t necessarily hold true today, for the most part.
By far and wide, the big winner of the day was Steven Spielberg’s The Post, which just recently screened and has yet to have its review embargo lifted. The Watergate era drama won Best Film along with Actor (Tom Hanks) and Actress (Meryl Streep). Buzz for the pic has already vaulted it into contention and today basically solidifies its inclusion into Best Picture at the Oscars. In this decade, only 2014’s AMostViolentYear was victorious and didn’t land an Academy nod.
Streep looks on her way to her 21st nomination and Hanks is looking better for his sixth. In the Suporting races, Willem Dafoe for TheFloridaProject and Laurie Metcalf in LadyBird heard their names called. Both look safe for Oscar attention.
Additionally, the NBR names their ten other favorite features of the year. That list include likely Oscar nominees CallMebyYourName, Dunkirk, LadyBird, and PhantomThread (which took Original Screenplay). There were sleeper-ish picks such as TheDisasterArtist (which won Adapted Screenplay), TheFloridaProject, and GetOut. And then there were the aforementioned outside the box choices – BabyDriver, Downsizing, and Logan. Any of that trio being included in the big race would be a surprise.
In my view, there are three glaring omissions for pictures that are more likely to have Oscar shine its light on them: TheShapeofWater, DarkestHour, and ThreeBillboardsOutsideEbbing, Missouri. To a lesser degree of surprise, we didn’t see Mudbound, I, Tonya, LastFlagFlying, Detroit, BladeRunner2049, BattleoftheSexes, or TheBigSick.
In other categories, Oscar front runner Coco took Animated Feature, Jane won Documentary, and Israel’s Foxtrot was honored in the Foreign Language race.
Bottom line: ThePost ramped up its awards season viability today in a massive way.
Had The Hitman’s Bodyguard been made in the mid to late 1990s, it may well have involved three of the performers present. We have Samuel L. Jackson as one of the co-leads. There’s Gary Oldman overacting his tail off as the main baddie. And Salma Hayek adds a sassy flavor as a love interest. There would be no Ryan Reynolds, who would have been in his late teens or early 20s at the time. Instead, maybe Bruce Willis or Kurt Russell could have filled his role.
As such, the three actors mentioned are a bit older and filling parts we’ve seen them cast in before. Bodyguard is joyfully R rated, filled with action genre familiarities, and (to use a reviewer’s cliche) it hits the mark sporadically. Reynolds is Michael Bryce, former CIA officer and triple A rated executive protection officer. What is exactly gives one the distinction of being triple A rated in this particular field? None of the other character seem to know, but he seems supremely confident in the designation. Essentially, he’s good at not letting the people he protects (some of whom are nefarious types) die.
His unblemished record is thwarted early here and his career goes down the tubes. Bryce gets back in the game a couple years later when notorious hitman Darius Kincaid (Jackson) needs a protector. He’s been imprisoned for some time and he’s a key government witness against a foreign dictator (Oldman) for his many crimes. There’s a whole army of the dictator’s henchmen who wish to keep Kincaid from the witness stand.
Much of the action here takes place in Amsterdam as Bryce tries to get his subject to The Hague to testify. Our two leads have a checkered history together and getting them to work together doesn’t come easily. Bryce believes his protection methods work best (don’t kill anyone) while Kincaid feels differently (kill everyone). The comedic banter between Reynolds and Jackson works well much of the time as they try to one up each other in their work.
Both principal’s have ladies in their lives. Elodie Yung is Bryce’s ex who he still can’t let go of. Hayek is Kincaid’s wife, apparently jailed simply due to her association with her hubby. Her character rivals his in their extreme use of the word mother****er, which had basically become Jackson’s catchphrase in countless pictures.
Expendables 3 director Patrick Hughes keeps Bodyguard charging along with action set pieces that are competent and pretty much instantly forgettable. We get some backstory of the pair and how they met their women. This is done so in flashback sequences that are a bit superfluous and complete with ironically cliched song choices. For someone who’s played some very memorable villains, Oldman’s screen time is too limited to make much impact.
The stars of The Hitman’s Bodyguard certainly keep it watchable and there’s a select few genuinely funny moments splattered around the cartoonish mayhem. On the other hand, Mr. Reynolds and Mr. Jackson have appeared in violent flicks before that you’ll remember in the morning. That doesn’t quite hold true here.
The December box office begins slowly with Thanksgiving/November leftovers sure to rule the charts. There are no new wide releases this weekend as Hollywood takes a breath to prepare for the would-be Christmas season blockbusters.
In other words, it’s a rather dull week. The post Turkey Day weekend is known for seeing holdovers have rather significant drops from the holiday frame that preceded it and that should hold true here. I don’t look for much change in the rankings as Pixar’s Coco should easily retain the top spot.
And with that, my top 6 predictions:
1. Coco
Predicted Gross: $25.2 million (representing a drop of 50%)
2. Justice League
Predicted Gross: $16.8 million (representing a drop of 59%)
3. Wonder
Predicted Gross: $14.4 million (representing a drop of 36%)
4. Thor: Ragnarok
Predicted Gross: $7.7 million (representing a drop of 54%)
5. Daddy’s Home 2
Predicted Gross: $7.1 million (representing a drop of 46%)
6. Murder on the Orient Express
Predicted Gross: $6.9 million (representing a drop of 47%)
Box Office Results (November 24-26)
As expected (especially after the disappointing opening of Justice League), Pixar’s Coco topped the Thanksgiving charts with $50.8 million over the Friday to Sunday portion of the weekend. Since its Wednesday start, it’s made $72.9 million. That’s a touch under my respective forecasts of $54.1 million and $74.6 million yet it’s still a solid debut for the studio as it looks to play well in the coming weekends. It stands an excellent chance at being the #1 picture for three weeks in a row before a certain other Disney property is unleashed on December 15th.
Justice League dropped to second with its continued less than anticipated earnings at $41 million, right on target with my $41.6 million projection. The DC pic has earned $171 million thus far and is on pace to be the lowest earner in its particular cinematic universe.
Wonder was third with $22.6 million. I was a tad higher at $25.4 million. Regardless, the sleeper hit has surpassed all expectations and taken in $69 million as it looks to join the $100 million club in the coming weeks.
Thor: Ragnarok was fourth with $16.8 million, in line with my prediction of $16.2 million. The MCU hit has amassed $277 million.
Daddy’s Home 2 took the five-spot with $13.2 million, a tad ahead of my $11.9 million estimate for a total of $72 million.
Murder on the Orient Express was right behind in sixth with $13.1 million (I was lower at $10.8 million). The Kenneth Branagh mystery, which will have a sequel with his Poirot character returning, stands at $74 million.
The faith-based animated The Star was seventh in its sophomore frame with $6.9 million compared to my $8.6 million forecast for $22 million overall.
Finally, Denzel Washington’s Roman J. Israel, Esq. failed to impress, debuting wide in ninth with just $4.4 million (I said $5 million). With no awards buzz and middling buzz, expect it to fade quickly.
I’m back at it again with my post Turkey Day Oscar predictions. The winner of this particular week is Phantom Thread, which has held screenings. While reviews are under strict embargo until next week, there is some positive word emanating from the Twitterverse. It’s buzz could certainly change once official reviews are released, but for now I’ve got it in Best Picture for the first time and that means The Florida Project has been taken out. Additionally, Phantom has gone from an estimated four nods last week to seven today.
Steven Spielberg’s The Post is also gaining traction even though official reviews aren’t yet out. It’s doubled my predicted nomination count from 4 to 8 this week.
If there’s a loser this week, it’s Darkest Hour. I had it at 10 nominations last week and now I have it at 6.
Some other developments:
Best Director has two newbies: Spielberg and Greta Gerwig for Lady Bird. That means Joe Wright (Darkest Hour) and Dee Rees (Mudbound) are currently out.
In Best Actor, I’ve removed Andrew Garfield (Breathe) in favor of James Franco (The Disaster Artist).
Changes in both Supporting races as I’ve put Michael Stuhlbarg (Call Me by Your Name) in and taken Mark Rylance (Dunkirk) out. In Supporting Actress, I’ve vaulted Lesley Manville’s (there’s buzz) work in Phantom Thread in, therefore removing Kristin Scott Thomas in Darkest Hour.
Here’s how I’ve got it all playing out!
BestPicture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. TheShapeofWater (PR: 2)
3. ThreeBillboardsOutsideEbbing, Missouri (PR: 4)
4. LadyBird (PR: 7)
5. CallMebyYourName (PR: 6)
6. DarkestHour (PR: 3)
7. ThePost (PR: 8)
8. Mudbound (PR: 5)
9. PhantomThread (PR: 12)
Other Possibilities:
10. TheFloridaProject (PR: 7)
11. GetOut (PR: 10)
12. I, Tonya (PR: 11)
13. Detroit (PR: 14)
14. BattleoftheSexes (PR: 15)
15. BladeRunner2049 (PR: 13)
BestDirector
1. Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. Guillermo del Toro, TheShapeofWater (PR: 2)
3. Martin McDonagh, ThreeBillboardsOutsideEbbing, Missouri (PR: 4)
4. Greta Gerwig, LadyBird (PR: 6)
5. Steven Spielberg, ThePost (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dee Rees, Mudbound (PR: 5)
7. Joe Wright, DarkestHour (PR: 3)
8. Luca Guadagnino, CallMebyYourName (PR: 8)
9. Paul Thomas Anderson, PhantomThread (PR: Not Ranked)
3. Lesley Manville, PhantomThread (PR: Not Ranked)
4. Melissa Leo, Novitiate (PR: 3)
5. Mary J. Blige, Mudbound (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Hong Chau, Downsizing (PR: 6)
7. Octavia Spencer, TheShapeofWater (PR: 10)
8. Holly Hunter, TheBigSick (PR: 7)
9. Kristin Scott Thomas, DarkestHour (PR: 5)
10. Julianne Moore, Wonderstruck (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Claire Foy, Breathe
BestAdaptedScreenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. CallMebyYourName (PR: 1)
2. Mudbound (PR: 2)
3. Molly’sGame (PR: 3)
4. TheDisasterArtist (PR: 4)
5. Wonderstruck (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. LastFlagFlying (PR: 6)
7. Wonder (PR: 10)
8. VictoriaandAbdul (PR: 7)
9. First, TheyKilledMyFather (PR: Not Ranked)
10. TheBeguiled (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Stronger
BestOriginalScreenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. ThreeBillboardsOutsideEbbing, Missouri (PR: 1)
2. LadyBird (PR: 3)
3. TheShapeofWater (PR: 2)
4. GetOut (PR: 4)
5. ThePost (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. I, Tonya (PR: 9)
7. TheBigSick (PR: 7)
8. TheFloridaProject (PR: 6)
9. DarkestHour (PR: 5)
10. PhantomThread (PR: 10)
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Coco (PR: 1)
2. Loving Vincent (PR: 3)
3. The Breadwinner (PR: 2)
4. Cars 3 (PR: 5)
5. Birdboy: The Forgotten Children (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. The LEGO Batman Movie (PR: 6)
7. Ferdinand (PR: 7)
8. Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie (PR: 8)
9. Despicable Me 3 (PR: 10)
10. The Big Bad Fox and Other Tales (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Girl Without Hands
Best Foreign Language Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. BPM (Beats Per Minute) (PR: 1)
2. In the Fade (PR: 2)
3. Foxtrot (PR: 5)
4. First, They Killed My Father (PR: 3)
5. The Square (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. A Fantastic Woman (PR: 6)
7. Loveless (PR: 7)
8. The Divine Order (PR: 9)
9. The Insult (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Happy End (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Tom of Finland
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Jane (PR: 2)
2. Cries from Syria (PR: 1)
3. Icarus (PR: 3)
4. City of Ghosts (PR: 4)
5. Long Strange Trip (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
6. Step (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Risk (PR: 7)
8. Strong Island (PR: 5)
9. Faces Places (PR: 10)
10. The Final Year (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Kedi
Joan Didion: The Center Will Not Hold
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)
3. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 4)
4. The Post (PR: 5)
5. Darkest Hour (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. I, Tonya (PR: 7)
7. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 8)
8. Lady Bird (PR: 6)
9. Phantom Thread (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Detroit (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Get Out
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)
3. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)
4. The Post (PR: 6)
5. Darkest Hour (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Phantom Thread (PR: 7)
7. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 10)
8. Wonderstruck (PR: 5)
9. Lady Bird (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Mudbound (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Detroit
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 3)
2. The Shape of Water (PR: 1)
3. Dunkirk (PR: 2)
4. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 5)
5. Phantom Thread (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Darkest Hour (PR: 6)
7. The Post (PR: 8)
8. Wonderstruck (PR: 7)
9. The Greatest Showman (PR: 9)
10. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Wonder Wheel
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Phantom Thread (PR: 1)
2. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 2)
3. The Shape of Water (PR: 6)
4. The Post (PR: 7)
5. The Greatest Showman (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 9)
7. Darkest Hour (PR: 4)
8. The Beguiled (PR: 3)
9. Wonder Wheel (PR: 8)
10. Wonderstruck (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Murder on the Orient Express
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Darkest Hour (PR: 1)
2. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 4)
3. Phantom Thread (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
4. I, Tonya (PR: 7)
5. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)
6. The Greatest Showman (PR: 5)
7. Wonder (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Thor: Ragnarok (PR: 10)
9. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (PR: 6)
10. It (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 1)
2. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)
3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 3)
4. War for the Planet of the Apes (PR: 4)
5. Dunkirk (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Spider-Man: Homecoming (PR: 6)
7. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 7)
8. Wonder Woman (PR: 9)
9. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (PR: 8)
10. Thor: Ragnarok (PR: 10)
Best Sound Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)
3. The Shape of Water (PR: 4)
4. Baby Driver (PR: 6)
5. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. War for the Planet of the Apes (PR: 7)
7. Wonder Woman (PR: 10)
8. Transformers: The Last Knight (PR: 5)
9. Detroit (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Beauty and the Beast (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Spider-Man: Homecoming
Coco
Best Sound Mixing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)
3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 4)
4. Baby Driver (PR: 3)
5. The Shape of Water (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Beauty and the Beast (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Transformers: The Last Knight (PR: 8)
8. Detroit (PR: 7)
9. The Greatest Showman (PR: 5)
10. War for the Planet of the Apes (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Darkest Hour
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (PR: 3)
2. Phantom Thread (PR: 7)
3. The Shape of Water (PR: 1)
4. The Post (PR: 5)
5. Darkest Hour (PR: 2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wonderstruck (PR: 4)
7. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 6)
8. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 8)
9. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Detroit
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Remember Me” from Coco (PR: 6)
2. “Stand Up for Something” from Marshall (PR: 1)
3. “Prayers for this World” from Cries from Syria (PR: 5)
4. “Evermore” from Beauty and the Beast (PR: 2)
5. “The Mystery of Love” from Call Me by Your Name (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. “It Ain’t Fair” from Detroit (PR: 3)
7. “I Don’t Wanna Live Forever” from Fifty Shades Darker (PR: 4)
8. “Truth to Power” from An Inconvenient Sequel: Truth to Power (PR: 8)
9. “Come Alive” from The Greatest Showman (PR: 7)
10. “The Promise” from The Promise (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
“Jump” from Step
And that tallies up the following nominations for each film:
13 Nominations
The Shape of Water
9 Nominations
Dunkirk
8 Nominations
The Post
7 Nominations
Phantom Thread
6 Nominations
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, Call Me by Your Name, Darkest Hour
5 Nominations
Lady Bird, Blade Runner 2049
4 Nominations
Beauty and the Beast
3 Nominations
Mudbound, Star Wars: The Last Jedi
2 Nominations
The Disaster Artist, I, Tonya, Coco, Cries from Syria, Baby Driver
1 Nomination
Stronger, The Florida Project, Novitiate, Molly’s Game, Wonderstruck, Get Out, Loving Vincent, The Breadwinner, Cars 3, Birdboy: The Forgotten Children, BPM (Beats Per Minute), In the Fade, Foxtrot, First, They Killed My Father, The Square, Jane, Icarus, City of Ghosts, Long Strange Trip, The Greatest Showman, War for the Planet of the Apes, Marshall
I’ll be back at it next Monday with updated predictions!
In the eight decades of Oscar history, we have seen the Supporting Actor category honor actors from the same picture about one-fifth of the time. It’s a fairly rare occurrence, but it’s been especially so as of late. It’s been 26 years since the Academy last did so and that serves as the longest gap by a lot. 2017 could change that.
Before we get to that, a little history lesson…
The first multiple Supporting Actor nominees happened in 1939 when Harry Carey and Claude Rains were nominated for Mr. Smith Goes to Washington.
It was 14 years before it happened again with 1953’s Shane bestowing nods for Jack Palance and Brandon deWilde. The following year gave us our first three actor nominations when Lee J. Cobb, Karl Malden, and Rod Steiger all had their names up for On the Waterfront. The 1950s would do this twice more – in 1957’s Peyton Place for Arthur Kennedy and Russ Tamblyn and 1959’s Anatomy of a Murder for Arthur O’Connell and George C. Scott.
1961 would bring Scott another nod for The Hustler, along with Jackie Gleason. 1967’s Bonnie and Clyde nominated both Gene Hackman and Michael J. Pollard.
1971 was the first year when one of the multiple picture nominees actually won. Ben Johnson emerged victorious for The Last Picture Show, while costar Jeff Bridges was nominated.
The Godfather saga would bestow six nominations among its two classic films. The 1972 original nominated James Caan, Robert Duvall, and Al Pacino. The 1974 sequel had Robert De Niro winning the statue, along with the nominated Michael V. Gazzo and Lee Strasberg. 1976’s Rocky nominated both Mick (Burgess Meredith) and Paulie (Burt Young) while Jason Robards won for 1977’s Julia with Maximillian Schell getting a nod.
Timothy Hutton would win for Ordinary People in 1980 with costar Judd Hirsch nominated. Jack Nicholson won for 1983’s Terms of Endearment with John Lithgow getting recognition. 1986’s Platoon was granted two nominees – Willem Dafoe and Tom Berenger.
And in 1991 – Harvey Keitel and Ben Kingsley were nominated for Bugsy.
That is the 16th and final time this has happened.
As mentioned, this year could potentially change that and there’s a surprising four ways for it to happen.
The least likely of the four scenarios in my opinion would be Jason Mitchell or Garrett Hedlund for Mudbound. Perhaps Mitchell could sneak in, but even that’s a long shot and the chances of both getting in seems non-existent.
The other three scenarios are all plausible. There’s Michael Shannon and Richard Jenkins for The Shape of Water. We have Armie Hammer and Michael Stuhlbarg for Call Me by Your Name. It wouldn’t shock me for either to occur, but maybe the best chance is Sam Rockwell (a lock for a nod) and Woody Harrelson (less so) for Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri.
It’s been a quarter century since two actors from the same film heard the names called in Supporting Actor. Will 2017 change that?
It’s Thanksgiving week at the box office as Disney/Pixar’s Coco looks to reign supreme over the leftovers and Denzel Washington’s courtroom drama Roman J. Israel Esq. also expands nationwide. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them right here:
My Coco estimate is likely to put it in the #1 spot over Justice League, due to the latter’s rather disappointing debut (more on that below). The #3 position should easily go to Wonder, which opened with great results this past weekend (more on that below as well).
The Thanksgiving weekend is traditionally one where holdovers experience smallish declines and I see that holding true for titles such as Thor: Ragnarok, Daddy’s Home 2, Murder on the Orient Express, and The Star.
As for Denzel’s Roman, my $5 million prediction for it over the Friday to Sunday portion of the weekend puts it outside the top 7 I’m estimating today. And here they are…
1. Coco
Predicted Gross: $54.1 million (Friday to Sunday), $74.6 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
2. Justice League
Predicted Gross: $41.6 million (representing a drop of 55%)
3. Wonder
Predicted Gross: $25.4 million (representing a drop of 8%)
4. Thor: Ragnarok
Predicted Gross: $16.2 million (representing a drop of 25%)
5. Daddy’s Home 2
Predicted Gross: $11.9 million (representing a drop of 18%)
6. Murder on the Orient Express
Predicted Gross: $10.8 million (representing a drop of 22%)
7. The Star
Predicted Gross: $8.6 million (representing a drop of 12%)
Box Office Results (November 17-19)
Warner Bros. is dealing with some disappointment this weekend as Justice League suffered a lackluster opening. I had DC’s version of The Avengers nabbing the third highest premiere of 2017 with $128.4 million. However, it grossed well under forecasts with $93.8 million.
That debut is good for just the 8th largest of the year, about $10 million behind Wonder Woman, which wasn’t expected to make the bank that it did. It serves as the DC Cinematic Universe’s smallest opening thus far. That Wonder Woman sequel can’t come soon enough…
The other story of the weekend was the terrific debut of Wonder in second,which defied all expectations with $27.5 million (way above my meager $12.9 million forecast). With great word-of-mouth, expect the drama to perform well over the holiday weekend and for the next several weeks.
Thor: Ragnarok dropped to third after two weeks on top with $21.6 million (under my $25 million estimate) to bring its total to $247 million.
Daddy’s Home 2 was fourth in weekend #2 with $14.4 million (shy of my $15.9 million projection) for a $50 million overall tally.
In its sophomore weekend, Murder on the Orient Express was fifth with $13.8 million (I said $14.5 million) for $51 million total.
Debuting in sixth place was the faith-based animated pic The Star, which pretty much met expectations with $9.8 million (in line with $10.3 million prediction). It could benefit from low declines over Thanksgiving.
Greetings all as my Oscar predictions return! My Thursday predictions will now become my Monday predictions as I missed last Thursday due to vacation. The biggest development of the last 11 days was that Steven Spielberg’s The Post screened last night. While it’s under strict embargo still from reviews, word leaking out currently is pretty encouraging and it’s bolstered both the picture and Meryl Streep’s chances for Oscar recognition (and possibly its director and Tom Hanks as well). It’s enough that I’ve got it going from 1 predicted nod a couple weeks ago to 4 today. A word of caution: with the embargo in place, I would describe my current Post placements as fluid.
You can peruse all the activity below and I’ll be back next Monday with fresh predictions!
BestPicture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. TheShapeofWater (PR: 2)
3. DarkestHour (PR: 3)
4. ThreeBillboardsOutsideEbbing, Missouri (PR: 4)
5. Mudbound (PR: 6)
6. CallMebyYourName (PR: 5)
7. LadyBird (PR: 7)
8. The Post (PR: 9)
9. TheFloridaProject (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
10. GetOut (PR: 11)
11. I, Tonya (PR: 10)
12. PhantomThread (PR: 13)
13. BladeRunner2049 (PR: 12)
14. Detroit (PR: 14)
15. BattleoftheSexes (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
LastFlagFlying
BestDirector
Predicted Nominees:
1. Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. Guillermo del Toro, TheShapeofWater (PR: 2)
3. Joe Wright, DarkestHour (PR: 3)
4. Martin McDonagh, ThreeBillboardsOutsideEbbing, Missouri (PR: 4)
2. Sam Rockwell, ThreeBillboardsOutsideEbbing, Missouri (PR: 2)
3. Armie Hammer, CallMebyYourName (PR: 3)
4. Michael Shannon, TheShapeofWater (PR: 6)
5. Mark Rylance, Dunkirk (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Michael Stuhlbarg, CallMebyYourName (PR: 5)
7. Richard Jenkins, TheShapeofWater (PR: 8)
8. Woody Harrelson, ThreeBillboardsOutsideEbbing, Missouri (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Jason Mitchell, Mudbound (PR: 7)
10. Steve Carell, BattleoftheSexes (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Ben Mendelsohn, DarkestHour
Will Poulter, Detroit
BestSupportingActress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Allison Janney, I, Tonya (PR: 1)
2. Laurie Metcalf, LadyBird (PR: 2)
3. Melissa Leo, Novitiate (PR: 3)
4. Mary J. Blige, Mudbound (PR: 4)
5. Kristin Scott Thomas, DarkestHour (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Hong Chau, Downsizing (PR: 5)
7. Holly Hunter, TheBigSick (PR: 7)
8. Julianne Moore, Wonderstruck (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Claire Foy, Breathe (PR: 8)
10. Octavia Spencer, TheShapeofWater (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Bria Vinaite, TheFloridaProject
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 1)
2. Mudbound (PR: 2)
3. Molly’s Game (PR: 3)
4. The Disaster Artist (PR: 6)
5. Wonderstruck (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Last Flag Flying (PR: 5)
7. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 7)
8. The Beguiled (PR: 8)
9. Stronger (PR: 9)
10. Wonder (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Blade Runner 2049
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 1)
2. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)
3. Lady Bird (PR: 3)
4. Get Out (PR: 5)
5. Darkest Hour (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Florida Project (PR: 4)
7. The Big Sick (PR: 7)
8. The Post (PR: 9)
9. I, Tonya (PR: 8)
10. Phantom Thread (PR: 10)
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Coco (PR: 1)
2. The Breadwinner (PR: 2)
3. Loving Vincent (PR: 3)
4. Birdboy: The Forgotten Children (PR: 4)
5. Cars 3 (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. The LEGO Batman Movie (PR: 7)
7. Ferdinand (PR: 5)
8. Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie (PR: 9)
9. The Girl Without Hands (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Despicable Me 3 (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
The Big Bad Fox and Other Tales
Best Foreign Language Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. BPM (Beats Per Minute) (PR: 1)
2. In the Fade (PR: 2)
3. First, They Killed My Father (PR: 4)
4. The Square (PR: 5)
5. Foxtrot (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. A Fantastic Woman (PR: 8)
7. Loveless (PR: 3)
8. Happy End (PR: 7)
9. The Divine Order (PR: 10)
10. Tom of Finland (PR: 9)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Cries from Syria (PR: 1)
2. Jane (PR: 2)
3. Icarus (PR: 4)
4. City of Ghosts (PR: 3)
5. Strong Island (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Kedi (PR: 8)
7. Risk (PR: 5)
8. Joan Didion: The Center Will Not Hold (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Long Strange Trip (PR: 9)
10. Faces Places (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Human Flow
Step
One of Us
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)
3. Darkest Hour (PR: 3)
4. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 4)
5. The Post (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Lady Bird (PR: Not Ranked)
7. I, Tonya (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 5)
9. Detroit (PR: 10)
10. Get Out (PR: 6)
Dropped Out:
Mudbound
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Call Me by Your Name
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (PR: 2)
2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 1)
3. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)
4. Darkest Hour (PR: 4)
5. Wonderstruck (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Post (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Phantom Thread (PR: 6)
8. Mudbound (PR: 9)
9. Detroit (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Wonder Wheel
mother!
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Shape of Water (PR: 1)
2. Dunkirk (PR: 5)
3. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 3)
4. Phantom Thread (PR: 4)
5. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Darkest Hour (PR: 2)
7. Wonderstruck (PR: 8)
8. The Post (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The Greatest Showman (PR: 9)
10. Wonder Wheel (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Phantom Thread (PR: 1)
2. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 2)
3. The Beguiled (PR: 5)
4. Darkest Hour (PR: 3)
5. The Greatest Showman (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Shape of Water (PR: Not Ranked)
7. The Post (PR: 9)
8. Wonder Wheel (PR: 6)
9. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 7)
10. Murder on the Orient Express (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Blade Runner 2049
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Darkest Hour (PR: 1)
2. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)
3. Phantom Thread (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
4. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 3)
5. The Greatest Showman (PR: 4)
6. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (PR: 7)
7. I, Tonya (PR: 8)
8. It (PR: 9)
9. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 6)
10. Thor: Ragnarok (PR: 10)
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 1)
2. The Shape of Water (PR: 4)
3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 3)
4. War for the Planet of the Apes (PR: 2)
5. Dunkirk (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Spider-Man: Homecoming (PR: 7)
7. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 9)
8. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (PR: 6)
9. Wonder Woman (PR: 8)
10. Thor: Ragnarok (PR: 10)
Best Sound Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)
3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 3)
4. The Shape of Water (PR: 4)
5. Transformers: The Last Knight (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Baby Driver (PR: 6)
7. War for the Planet of the Apes (PR: 9)
8. Spider-Man: Homecoming (PR: 10)
9. Coco (PR: 7)
10. Wonder Woman (PR: 8)
Best Sound Mixing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)
3. Baby Driver (PR: 4)
4. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 3)
5. The Greatest Showman (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Shape of Water (PR: 6)
7. Detroit (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Transformers: The Last Knight (PR: 8)
9. War for the Planet of the Apes (PR: 10)
10. Darkest Hour (PR: 7)
Dropped Out:
Coco
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Shape of Water (PR: 1)
2. Darkest Hour (PR: 3)
3. Dunkirk (PR: 2)
4. Wonderstruck (PR: 4)
5. The Post (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 5)
7. Phantom Thread (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 6)
9. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 7)
10. Detroit (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Coco
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Stand Up for Something” from Marshall (PR: 1)
2. “Evermore” from Beauty and the Beast (PR: 4)
3. “It Ain’t Fair” from Detroit (PR: 7)
4. “I Don’t Wanna Live Forever” from Fifty Shades Darker (PR: 3)
5. “Prayers for this World” from Cries from Syria (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Remember Me” from Coco (PR: 2)
7. “Come Alive” from The Greatest Showman (PR: 6)
8. “Truth to Power” from An Inconvenient Sequel (PR: Not Ranked)
9. “The Promise” from The Promise (PR: 8)
10. “Jump” from Step (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
“If I Dare” from Battle of the Sexes
“This is Me” from The Greatest Showman
And that leaves us with the following breakdown of nominations:
12 Nominations
The Shape of Water
10 Nominations
Dunkirk, Darkest Hour
6 Nominations
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
5 Nominations
Blade Runner 2049
4 Nominations
Call Me by Your Name, Mudbound, Lady Bird, The Post, Phantom Thread
3 Nominations
Wonderstruck, Beauty and the Beast, Star Wars: The Last Jedi
2 Nominations
The Florida Project, I, Tonya, Cries from Syria, The Greatest Showman,
1 Nomination
Stronger, Breathe, Novitiate, Molly’s Game, The Disaster Artist, Get Out, Coco, The Breadwinner, Loving Vincent, Birdboy: The Forgotten Children, Cars 3, BPM (Beats Per Minute), In the Fade, First, They Killed My Father, The Square, Foxtrot, Jane, Icarus, Strong Island, The Beguiled, War for the Planet of the Apes, Transformers: The Last Knight, Baby Driver, Marshall, Detroit, Fifty Shades Darker.
We’ll see you next Monday with updated projections!
Denzel Washington headlines RomanJ. Israel, Esq., which expands nationwide over the Thanksgiving weekend. From Nightcrawler director Tony Gilroy, the legal drama hopes to appeal to the star’s fans and adult moviegoers looking for alternatives over the Turkey Day frame. Colin Farrell and Carmen Ejogo costar.
Israel has some issues that could block it from achieving solid grosses. While Washington can be a draw, this isn’t an action pic which are often his highest earners. Additionally, there is little awards buzz and reviews have been mixed (it sits at 55% currently on Rotten Tomatoes).
I’ll estimate that this won’t even reach double digits over the full five-day holiday weekend.
RomanJ.Israel, Esq. opening weekend prediction: $5 million (Friday to Sunday), $6.9 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
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