For the past week, I’ve given you my impossibly premature projections for the 96th Academy Awards. After all, most of these predicted features have yet to hold a screening.
Yet it’s worth pointing out that my initial forecast for the previous BP nominees in April of 2022 yielded seven of the ten eventual nominees. Three were included in my top 10: the winner Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Fabelmans, and Women Talking. Four were placed in Other Possibilities – Avatar: The Way of Water, The Banshees of Inisherin, Elvis, and Tár.
Let’s see how this ratio for 2023 works out a few months down the road, shall we? If you missed my look at Director and the four acting competitions, they can accessed at the end of this post.
This blogger’s first take on the 96th Academy Awards arrives at Best Director. If you didn’t catch my early glimpses for the acting races, you can find them linked at the bottom.
When I made my initial projections for the recently aired 95th Oscars back in April 2022, it correctly identified one of the eventual nominees: Steven Spielberg for The Fabelmans. The eventual winners – the Daniels for Everything Everywhere All at Once – were mentioned in Other Possibilities.
I’ll have Best Picture up later this evening!
TODD’S MARCH 2023 OSCAR PREDICTIONS: BEST DIRECTOR
My wildly early first look at the major categories for next year’s Oscars continues with Best Actor! If you missed my posts covering the supporting derbies, they are linked at the bottom.
Quite honestly, I had a hard time shrinking this list down to 15. Leaving out possible contenders such as Benedict Cumberbatch (The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar), Adam Driver (Ferrari), or Michael Fassbender (The Killer or Next GoalWins) felt odd. Even Matt Damon for Air (out next weekend) is a legit hopeful. There’s plenty of others I could name.
It is worth pointing out that my inaugural projections for 2022 correctly placed eventual winner Brendan Fraser (The Whale) in the top five while Austin Butler (Elvis) and Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin) were both mentioned in Other Possibilities.
A final note (and there’s no great to broach this) is that I likely would’ve had Jonathan Majors (Magazine Dreams) in my quintet instead of in Other Possibilities a week ago. However, his weekend arrest obviously complicates the matter and throws any potential campaign into disarray.
Here’s the premiere forecast for ’23 and Best Actress is up next.
My impossibly early and speculative first Oscar predictions for the 96th Academy Awards arrives at Best Supporting Actress! If you missed my post regarding the Supporting Actor hopefuls, you can find it here:
Before you know it, I’ll moving to my weekly (or every two weeks) forecasts for the main races. When I did these inaugural picks in this category last year, it correctly identified one eventual nominee (Michelle Williams in The Fabelmans) that made the quintet. However, she did so in lead Actress. Another (Hong Chau for The Whale) was listed in Other Possibilities.
Let’s get to it and Best Actor is up tomorrow!
TODD’S MARCH 2023 OSCAR PREDICTIONS: BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Just as I did last year, I waited an entire two weeks from the previous ceremony before pontificating on the next Oscars. There is my impossibly early look at the six major categories for the 96th Academy Awards and it begins with Supporting Actor.
Let’s be clear that many of the 15 names I mention today will probably not be on the radar screen a little less than a year from now. Release dates will get pushed back and make some hopefuls ineligible. Some pictures will simply fizzle out. Roles will be smaller than anticipated or even bigger and perhaps contend in the lead derby.
With the four acting races and director, I’ll give you my five current picks with ten other possibilities. When it gets to Picture later this week, I’ll project my ten and list fifteen others.
In 2022, when I made my super duper early picks in Supporting Actor, it yielded none of the eventual contenders. Like I said… it’s early. Some of the names I said last time around were Mark Ruffalo for Poor Things, Glynn Turman in Rustin, and Robert De Niro in Killers of the Flower Moon. All three of those movies were pushed to 2023 and that’s why they materialize again.
Best Supporting Actress will be posted tomorrow. This is my snapshot of Supporting Actor.
TODD’S MARCH 2023 OSCAR PREDICTIONS: BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Tetris is not your typical blockbuster based on a video game, but instead a look behind the curtain at the iconic creation which burst onto the scene in the late 80s. Jon S. Baird (who previously made Stan & Ollie) directs Taron Egerton as the Dutch inventor who must face off with Soviets in the Cold War era to bring it to the masses. Costars include Toby Jones, Nikita Yefremov, Roger Allam, and Anthony Boyle.
Apple TV begins airing this on March 31st after it premiered at South by Southwest. It would seem that a corresponding theatrical output is not occurring. That would mean game over for its Oscar prospects from the get-go. This makes sense given the 81% Rotten Tomatoes is solid though most reviews aren’t outright raves. The streamer is far more likely to concentrate on the upcoming Killers of the Flower Moon from Martin Scorsese and Ridley Scott’s Napoleon (and potentially others) anyway.
Even without the ineligibility factor, Tetris doesn’t seem to have the pieces put together for a legit campaign. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
**Blogger’s Note – shortly after posting, I was informed that this will have a limited L.A. theatrical run and is likely therefore eligible for consideration. It doesn’t change my underlying thoughts on the viability.
In an alternative universe, Emancipation might be in my top 10 predicted Best Picture nominees. I could potentially be discussing Will Smith’s chances of being the first back to back acting winner since Tom Hanks in 1993 and 1994.
I didn’t think this alternative universe could be a potential reality in the 2022 awards season. In 2021, Apple TV beat Netflix and others to the punch as CODA was the inaugural streaming Best Picture winner. For a while, Martin Scorsese’s Killers of the Flower Moon appeared to be Apple’s best shot at making it two years in a row. That’s until it got pushed to 2023. In recent weeks, there was speculation that Ridley Scott’s Napoleon starring Joaquin Phoenix could make a jump to 2022. It wasn’t to be.
This has left Apple without a legit across the board Oscar player… until maybe today. Why? The streamer announced that Antoine Fuqua’s historical drama Emancipation will hit theaters for an awards qualifying run on December 2nd and then be available for home viewing on December 9th. The trailer was unveiled this morning.
And in case you’re still wondering why I’m skeptical… two words: The Slap. Yes, the slap heard around the globe when Chris Rock presented Best Documentary Feature at the Academy Awards and cracked a joke about Jada Pinkett Smith. And, of course, slap provider Will Smith giving his acceptance speech a few minutes later when he was victorious in Best Actor for King Richard.
Since then, many of Smith’s planned projects have entered turnaround status. Emancipation, in which he plays a slave who joins the Union Army, was already filmed. And Apple made the surprising decision in early October to get it out two months later. This surely means Smith will be subject to interviews where he’ll address The Slap sooner than later.
So… the obvious question: can Smith get nominated? Can the film itself do so in other categories? Even though the star resigned from the Academy in the aftermath of the incident, he can still be nominated (and he can attend if invited by other members). So while the short answer is yes… the real answer is more complicated.
My gut is that Smith’s work in Emancipation would have to be undeniably awards worthy to make the final five. Even that could be a stretch. Time heals controversies and not much time has passed. As for the film itself, it could surely garner nods from Best Picture on down (I’m curious if Ben Foster gets any chatter for Supporting Actor). Yet it starts off at a unique disadvantage.
We won’t know until reviews start surfacing and that could be a few weeks. I can only assume Apple will give this a major push for consideration. It’s a campaign that is an uphill battle for reasons unfathomable just a few months ago.
As July comes to a close, Oscar prognosticators received several bits of fascinating news this past week. The first was the lineup of the Venice Film Festival as well as the bulk of titles that will play in Toronto. That wild season (which also includes Telluride) is a mere month away. We will see a huge number of awards hopefuls being screened with long awaited buzz finally becoming clear.
Yet the biggest news is the (as yet unconfirmed) rumor that Martin Scorsese’s Killers of the Flower Moon will not come out until 2023. Variety and Deadline essentially reported it as fact. I struggled all day with whether to include Killers in my updated predictions (I faced the same choices a couple of weeks ago with Rustin). My final decision was to drop it. If Killers ends up back on the 2022 calendar, Variety and Deadline have some explaining to do…
Another development is that Ron Howard’s Thirteen Lives was released. While reviews were certainly decent, I don’t think they’re strong enough that it will be a true BP contender. It’s at #25 on my list.
The Killers announcement obviously means major changes in most of my lineups. Cannes fest winner Triangle of Sadness replaces it in my 10 BP picks while Sarah Polley (Women Talking) is in for Scorsese in Director. Adam Driver in the Venice opener White Noise replaces Leonardo DiCaprio in Actor. Hong Chau (The Whale) is now in Supporting Actress with Lily Gladstone out. And with Jesse Plemons dropping in Supporting Actor, that leaves room for Triangle‘s Woody Harrelson. Finally, She Said rises in Adapted Screenplay.
That’s not all, folks! There’s a new #1 in Best Picture! I’ve had Damien Chazelle’s Babylon ranked #1 from the beginning… until now. In order to find a BP winner that didn’t play at either Venice or Telluride or Toronto or Sundance or Cannes, you have to go all the way back to (ironically) Martin Scorsese’s The Departed. That was 16 years ago. Babylon could still sneak into Telluride. Yet I’m skeptical it will. This factoid alone is enough for me to vault Steven Spielberg’s The Fabelmans (premiering at Toronto) to the top spot.
I’m not finished yet with the #1 changes. The Son is now first in Adapted Screenplay since Killers has moved. And Ke Huy Quan rises to the pole position in Supporting Actor over Paul Dano from The Fabelmans.
Another alteration – Empire of Light falls out of Original Screenplay with The Banshees of Inisherin in as my likely lone screenplay nominee.
That’s a lot of movement in one week and you can peruse it all below!
The release schedule for 2022 is always shifting (though thankfully not as much as in 2020 and 2021). This week, there were reports that Netflix’s Rustin will be pushed to 2023. While this isn’t 100% confirmed, it’s enough that I’ve moved it out of contention and that’s significant. I had it pegged for a Best Picture nomination as well as Actor (Colman Domingo) and Supporting Actress (Audra McDonald) in my post from 7 days ago.
The beneficiary of Rustin falling out of contention? None other than Top Gun: Maverick. Let me be clear – I’m very skeptical that it receives a nod in the biggest race of all. Yet it’s hard to ignore the potency of its box office supremacy over the summer. Oscar voters will know that audiences will root for its inclusion. And that could be enough to push it past the finish line.
In Actor, Bardo‘s Daniel Gimenez Cacho replaces Domingo while Zoe Kazan (She Said) rises to the final five in Supporting Actress. There’s another change in Actress as I’m putting Cate Blanchett (Tar) in the mix over Regina King (Shirley). The latter is another Netflix effort where the release date seems uncertain. If they verify 2022 in the near future, she could (and probably would) get back in the mix.
You can read all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)
2. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)
3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 4) (E)
5. Women Talking (PR: 5) (E)
6. Bardo (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Son (PR: 7) (E)
8. Empire of Light (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Whale (PR: 9) (E)
10. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 12) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
11. She Said (PR: 11) (E)
12. White Noise (PR: 14) (+2)
13. Tar (PR: 13) (E)
14. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 18) (+3)
16. Elvis (PR: 16) (E)
17. Till (PR: 21) (+4)
18. Broker (PR: 19) (+1)
19. Decision to Leave (PR: 22) (+3)
20. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 20) (E)
21. The Woman King (PR: Not Ranked)
22. Thirteen Lives (PR: 17) (-5)
23. Amsterdam (PR: 23) (E)
24. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: Not Ranked)
25. The Greatest Beer Run Ever (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Rustin
The Killer
Don’t Worry Darling
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Damien Chazelle, Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)
3. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 4) (E)
5. Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Bardo (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sarah Polley, Women Talking (PR: 6) (E)
7. Sam Mendes, Empire of Light (PR: 7) (E)
8. Florian Zeller, The Son (PR: 8) (E)
9. Darren Aronofsky, The Whale (PR: 9) (E)
10. James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 10) (E)
11. Ruben Ostlund, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 11) (E)
12. Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave (PR: 14) (+2)
13. Noah Baumbach, White Noise (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Todd Field, Tar (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Chinoye Chukwu, Till (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Hirokazu Kore-ada, Broker
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Margot Robbie, Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)
3. Olivia Colman, Empire of Light (PR: 3) (E)
4. Danielle Deadwyler, Till (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Cate Blanchett, Tar (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Regina King, Shirley (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Viola Davis, The Woman King (PR: 7) (E)
8. Naomi Ackie, I Wanna Dance with Somebody (PR: 8) (E)
For my mid-July Oscar predictions, the Picture, Director, Actress, and Actor remain intact (with some ranking maneuvering). Same goes for the Screenplay races. However, there are some significant changes in the supporting fields. In Supporting Actress, I’ve moved Audra McDonald (Rustin) and Vanessa Kirby (The Son) in the final five while taking Hong Chau (The Whale) and Zoe Kazan (She Said) out. For Supporting Actor, I’ve had Robert De Niro (Killers of the Flower Moon) perched in #1 for many weeks. With this update, he drops all the way out of the top 5 with Paul Dano (The Fabelmans) now in first position. This moves Colin Firth (Empire of Light) into the predicted quintet.
As for other news, Taika Waititi’s sports pic Next Goal Wins appears to have pushed to 2023 (it was originally slated for 202o) and that explains it dropping out of contention. And for those who haven’t caught the recently released trailers for She Said and Amsterdam, you can find them below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)
2. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)
3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 4) (E)
5. Women Talking (PR: 5) (E)
6. Bardo (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Son (PR: 7) (E)
8. Empire of Light (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Whale (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Rustin (PR: 10) (E)
Other Possibilities:
11. She Said (PR: 11) (E)
12. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 13) (+1)
13. TAR (PR: 14) (+1)
14. White Noise (PR: 12) (-2)
15. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 15) (E)
16. Elvis (PR: 17) (+1)
17. Thirteen Lives (PR: 19) (+2)
18. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 21) (+3)
19. Broker (PR: 16) (-3)
20. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 22) (+2)
21. Till (PR: 24) (+3)
22. Decision to Leave (PR: 23) (+1)
23. Amsterdam (PR: 20) (-3)
24. The Killer (PR: 25) (+1)
25. Don’t Worry Darling (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Next Goal Wins
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Damien Chazelle, Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)
3. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 4) (E)
5. Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Bardo (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sarah Polley, Women Talking (PR: 6) (E)
7. Sam Mendes, Empire of Light (PR: 7) (E)
8. Florian Zeller, The Son (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Darren Aronofsky, The Whale (PR: 8) (-1)
10. James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 9) (-1)
11. Ruben Ostlund, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 15) (+4)
12. Noah Baumbach, White Noise (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Hirokazu Kore-ada, Broker (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Todd Field, TAR (PR: 13) (-2)
Dropped Out:
George C. Wolfe, Rustin
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Margot Robbie, Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)
3. Olivia Colman, Empire of Light (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Regina King, Shirley (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Danielle Deadwyler, Till (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Cate Blanchett, TAR (PR: 6) (E)
7. Viola Davis, The Woman King (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Naomi Ackie, I Wanna Dance with Somebody (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Carey Mulligan, She Said (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Ana de Armas, Blonde (PR: 9) (-1)
11. Helen Mirren, Golda (PR: 11) (E)
12. Frances McDormand, Women Talking (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Jessica Chastain, The Good Nurse (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Florence Pugh, Don’t Worry Darling (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Lesley Manville, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris
Michelle Williams, Showing Up
Jennifer Lawrence, Red, White, and Water
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Hugh Jackman, The Son (PR: 1) (E)
2. Brendan Fraser, The Whale (PR: 2) (E)
3. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 3) (E)
4. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Austin Butler, Elvis (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Adam Driver, White Noise (PR: 6) (E)
7. Daniel Gimenez Cacho, Bardo (PR: 7) (E)
8. Diego Calva, Babylon (PR: 8) (E)
9. Song Kang-Ho, Broker (PR: 13) (+4)
10. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 10) (E)
11. Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 15) (+4)
12. Viggo Mortensen, Thirteen Lives (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Bill Nighy, Living (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Gabriel LaBelle, The Fabelmans (PR: 14) (E)
15. Christian Bale, The Pale Blue Eye (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Michael Fassbender, Next Goal Wins
Christian Bale, Amsterdam
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (E)
2. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Jessie Buckley, Women Talking (PR: 3) (E)
4. Audra McDonald, Rustin (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Vanessa Kirby, The Son (PR: 12) (+7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Hong Chau, The Whale (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Zoe Kazan, She Said (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Sadie Sink, The Whale (PR: 11) (+2)
10. Laura Dern, The Son (PR: 6) (-4)
11. Jean Smart, Babylon (PR: 8) (-3)
12. Patricia Clarkson, She Said (PR: 10) (-2)
13. Nina Hoss, TAR (PR: 13) (E)
14. Dakota Johnson, Cha Cha Real Smooth (PR: 14) (E)
15. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Dolly De Leon, Triangle of Sadness
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Brad Pitt, Babylon (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Jesse Plemons, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Colin Firth, Empire of Light (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (-5)
7. Glynn Turman, Rustin (PR: 7) (E)
8. Michael Ward, Empire of Light (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Ben Whishaw, Women Talking (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Woody Harrelson, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 13) (+3)
11. Colin Farrell, Thirteen Lives (PR: 11) (E)
12. Seth Rogen, The Fabelmans (PR: 10) (-2)
13. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Russell Crowe, The Greatest Beer Run Ever (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Anthony Hopkins, Armageddon Time (PR: 9) (-6)
Dropped Out:
John David Washington, Amsterdam
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)
3. Babylon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Empire of Light (PR: 4) (E)
5. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Bardo (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Tar (PR: 10) (+3)
8. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Rustin (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Broker (PR: 9) (-1)
11. Decision to Leave (PR: 13) (+2)
12. Cha Cha Real Smooth (PR: 14) (+2)
13. Amsterdam (PR: 11) (-2)
14. Don’t Worry Darling (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Bros (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Aftersun
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Son (PR: 2) (E)
3. Women Talking (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Whale (PR: 4) (E)
5. White Noise (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. She Said (PR: 6) (E)
7. Thirteen Lives (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Till (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Greatest Beer Run Ever (PR: 10) (+1)
10. The Good Nurse (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 15) (+4)
12. The Woman King (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Bones and All (PR: 13) (E)
14. Close (PR: Not Ranked)
15. The Killer (PR: 12) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Next Goal Wins
The Pale Blue Eye
You can anticipate the next update around the first of August!
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