We’ve had the Gotham Awards, the National Board of Review, and New York Film Critics Circle transpire over the past week and my Oscar predictions are updated! Let’s get to it:
Best Picture
1. A Star Is Born (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Roma (PR: 2)
3. The Favourite (PR: 3)
4. Green Book (PR: 7)
5. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 4)
6. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 6)
7. Vice (PR: 5)
8. Black Panther (PR: 8)
9. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 10)
10. First Man (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
11. First Reformed (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Eighth Grade (PR: 14)
13. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 12)
14. Widows (PR: 11)
15. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 13)
Dropped Out:
The Mule
Best Director
1. Alfonso Cuaron, Roma (PR: 1)
2. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 2)
3. Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite (PR: 3)
4. Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 4)
5. Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Peter Farrelly, Green Book (PR: 7)
7. Adam McKay, Vice (PR: 6)
8. Ryan Coogler, Black Panther (PR: 9)
9. Damien Chazelle, First Man (PR: 8)
10. Rob Marshall, Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 10)
Best Actor
1. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 1)
2. Christian Bale, Vice (PR: 2)
3. Viggo Mortensen, Green Book (PR: 3)
4. Ethan Hawke, First Reformed (PR: 5)
5. Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ryan Gosling, First Man (PR: 6)
7. Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate (PR: 7)
8. Robert Redford, The Old Man & The Gun (PR: 9)
9. Clint Eastwood, The Mule (PR: 8)
10. Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased (PR: 10)
Best Actress
1. Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born (PR: 1)
2. Glenn Close, The Wife (PR: 3)
3. Olivia Colman, The Favourite (PR: 2)
4. Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 5)
5. Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Yalitza Aparicio, Roma (PR: 6)
7. Viola Davis, Widows (PR: 7)
8. Toni Collette, Hereditary (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Julia Roberts, Ben Is Back (PR: 8)
10. Saoirse Ronan, Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Nicole Kidman, Destroyer
Best Supporting Actor
1. Mahershala Ali, Green Book (PR: 1)
2. Sam Elliot, A Star Is Born (PR: 3)
3. Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 2)
4. Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 5)
5. Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sam Rockwell, Vice (PR: 6)
7. Nicholas Hoult, The Favourite (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther (PR: 7)
9. Steve Carell, Vice (PR: 9)
10. Daniel Kaluuya, Widows (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Russell Hornsby, The Hate U Give
Best Supporting Actress
1. Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 1)
2. Amy Adams, Vice (PR: 2)
3. Emma Stone, The Favourite (PR: 3)
4. Rachel Weisz, The Favourite (PR: 5)
5. Claire Foy, First Man (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased (PR: 6)
7. Marina De Tavira, Roma (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Michelle Yeoh, Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 9)
9. Margot Robbie, Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 7)
10. Natalie Portman, Vox Lux (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Meryl Streep, Mary Poppins Returns
Best Adapted Screenplay
1. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 2)
2. A Star Is Born (PR: 3)
3. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 1)
4. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 4)
5. First Man (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Widows (PR: 5)
7. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 9)
8. The Hate U Give (PR: 7)
9. Boy Erased (PR: 8)
10. Leave No Trace (PR: 10)
Best Original Screenplay
1. The Favourite (PR: 1)
2. Roma (PR: 2)
3. First Reformed (PR: 6)
4. Green Book (PR: 3)
5. Eighth Grade (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Vice (PR: 4)
7. A Quiet Place (PR: 7)
8. Private Life (PR: 8)
9. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 9)
10. The Mule (PR: 10)
Best Foreign Language Film
1. Roma (PR: 1)
2. Cold War (PR: 2)
3. Shoplifters (PR: 3)
4. Capernaum (PR: 5)
5. Burning (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Never Look Away (PR: 8)
7. Border (PR: 10)
8. Girl (PR: 4)
9. Birds of Passage (PR: 6)
10. The Guilty (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
I Am Not a Witch
Best Animated Feature
1. Incredibles 2 (PR: 1)
2. Isle of Dogs (PR: 2)
3. Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse (PR: 4)
4. Ralph Breaks the Internet (PR: 3)
5. Mirai (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Smallfoot (PR: 8)
7. Early Man (PR: 6)
8. Lu Over the Wall (PR: 9)
9. Ruben Brandt, Collector (PR: 7)
10. Tito and the Birds (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Teen Titans Go! To the Movies
Best Documentary Feature
1. Won’t You Be My Neighbor? (PR: 1)
2. Three Identical Strangers (PR: 2)
3. Free Solo (PR: 3)
4. RBG (PR: 4)
5. Minding the Gap (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Crime + Punishment (PR: 7)
7. Hale County This Morning, This Evening (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Dark Money (PR: 8)
9. Amazing Grace (PR: 6)
10. Science Fair (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Quincy
Jane Fonda in Five Acts
Best Film Editing
1. First Man (PR: 2)
2. A Star Is Born (PR: 1)
3. Roma (PR: 3)
4. Black Panther (PR: 7)
5. The Favourite (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Widows (PR: 8)
7. Green Book (PR: 10)
8. Vice (PR: 5)
9. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 6)
10. BlacKkKlansman (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Mary Poppins Returns
Best Cinematography
1. Roma (PR: 1)
2. First Man (PR: 5)
3. The Favourite (PR: 2)
4. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 4)
5. A Star Is Born (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Black Panther (PR: 6)
7. Cold War (PR: 7)
8. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 8)
9. Widows (PR: 9)
10. Green Book (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
BlacKkKlansman
Best Production Design
1. The Favourite (PR: 1)
2. Black Panther (PR: 2)
3. First Man (PR: 5)
4. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 3)
5. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Roma (PR: 6)
7. A Star Is Born (PR: 8)
8. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 7)
9. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (PR: 9)
10. Colette (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Nutcracker and the Four Realms
Best Costume Design
1. The Favourite (PR: 1)
2. Black Panther (PR: 2)
3. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 3)
4. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 4)
5. Colette (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (PR: 7)
7. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 6)
8. A Star Is Born (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 8)
10. The Nutcracker and the Four Realms (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
If Beale Street Could Talk
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
1. Black Panther (PR: 1)
2. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 2)
3. Vice (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
4. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 7)
5. The Favourite (PR: 4)
6. Stan & Ollie (PR: 5)
7. Colette (PR: 6)
8. A Star Is Born (PR: 8)
9. A Wrinkle in Time (PR: 10)
10. Solo: A Star Wars Story (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Suspiria
Best Sound Editing
1. First Man (PR: 1)
2. Black Panther (PR: 3)
3. A Star Is Born (PR: 2)
4. A Quiet Place (PR: 4)
5. Roma (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 5)
7. Incredibles 2 (PR: 8)
8. Annihilation (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Avengers: Infinity War (PR: 10)
10. Ready Player One (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Bohemian Rhapsody
Best Sound Mixing
1. First Man (PR: 1)
2. A Star Is Born (PR: 2)
3. Black Panther (PR: 3)
4. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 5)
5. A Quiet Place (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 7)
7. Roma (PR: 6)
8. Incredibles 2 (PR: 8)
9. Avengers: Infinity War (PR: 10)
10. Ready Player One (PR: 9)
Best Visual Effects
1. Avengers: Infinity War (PR: 2)
2. First Man (PR: 1)
3. Ready Player One (PR: 4)
4. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 3)
5. Black Panther (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Annihilation (PR: 6)
7. A Wrinkle in Time (PR: 8)
8. Solo: A Star Wars Story (PR: 7)
9. A Quiet Place (PR: 10)
10. Ant–Man and the Wasp (PR: 9)
Best Original Score
1. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 1)
2. First Man (PR: 2)
3. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 3)
4. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 4)
5. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Widows (PR: 7)
7. Colette (PR: 6)
8. Incredibles 2 (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 8)
10. Roma (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Green Book
Best Original Song
1. “The Shallow” from A Star Is Born (PR: 1)
2. “The Place Where Lost Things Go” from Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 2)
3. “I’ll Fight” from RBG (PR: 3)
4. “All the Stars” from Black Panther (PR: 4)
5. “Time for Change” from On the Basis of Sex (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
6. “We Won’t Move” from The Hate U Give (PR: 6)
7. “Girl in the Movies” from Dumplin’ (PR: Not Ranked)
8. “I’ll Never Love Again” from A Star Is Born (PR: 5)
9. “Revelation” from Boy Erased (PR: 7)
10. “Gravity” from Free Solo (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
“Always Remember Us This Way” from A Star Is Born
”A Place Called Slaughter Race” from Ralph Breaks the Internet
That equates to the following number of nominations for each picture:
11 Nominations
A Star Is Born
10 Nominations
The Favourite, First Man
9 Nominations
Black Panther
8 Nominations
Mary Poppins Returns
6 Nominations
If Beale Street Could Talk, Roma
5 Nominations
BlacKkKlansman
4 Nominations
Green Book, Mary Queen of Scots, Vice
3 Nominations
Can You Ever Forgive Me?
2 Nominations
First Reformed, A Quiet Place, RBG
1 Nomination
Bohemian Rhapsody, The Wife, Beautiful Boy, Eighth Grade, Cold War, Shoplifters, Capernaum, Burning, Incredibles 2, Isle of Dogs, Spider–Man: Into the Spider–Verse, Ralph Breaks the Internet, Mirai, Won’t You Be My Neighbor?, Three Identical Strangers, Free Solo, Minding the Gap, Colette, Avengers: Infinity War, Ready Player One, On the Basis of Sex