Francis Galluppi appears to be a writer/director to watch based on reaction to his debut The Last Stop in Yuma County. The crime thriller is out in limited fashion and on streaming services this weekend. Critics are praising the tight B-movie with an effective albeit familiar script, according to various write-ups. The cast includes Jim Cummings, Jocelin Donahue, Sierra McCormick, Nicholas Logan, Michael Abbott Jr., Connor Paolo, Alex Essoe, Robin Bartlett, Sam Huntington, Barbara Crampton, Gene Jones, Faizon Love, and Richard Brake.
With a sturdy 98% on RT, this could be a cult classic in waiting. It’s doubtful that the genre exercise will flex any muscle with awards branches. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, for starters, gets its name right. Arriving seven years after War for the Planet of the Apes, a common criticism (not an especially important one) of the preceding trilogy was that their titles were a bit misleading. 2011’s Rise of the Planet of the Apes should’ve been Dawn of the Planet of the Apes. Yet that one came three years later and a more appropriate moniker for it would be War for the Planet of the Apes. However, War was in 2017 even though Rise of the Planet of the Apes would’ve fit better. Apes are indeed ruling the planet in the fourth entry of this Apes run and the tenth overall in the franchise. Climb of the Planet of the Apes might’ve stuck as well since the plot needs the creatures to use their upward mobility to get them out of jams.
Ultimately Kingdom gets more right than its name. A brief prologue reminds us where we left off in War. In its climax, simian leader Caesar (played iconically by Andy Serkis in probably the greatest motion capture performance ever) stopped being an Earthbound dweller and belonged to the ages. “Many generation later” (like 200-300 years), there are groups who study and honor Caesar’s work. Others are agnostic. Young ape Noa (Owen Teague) is in the latter bunch. His clan is more preoccupied with their birding activities which involve coming-of-age rituals that Noa is primed for. This is interrupted by human contact in the form of Freya Allan’s character Mae. All members of that race have been rendered speechless (as we started to witness in War). By Kingdom‘s coming, they’re also undomesticated and homeless and rare to come across.
This interaction inadvertently brings harm to Noa’s loved ones and sets the young ape on a course of discovery and retrieval of kidnapped family members. The abductor is Proximus Caesar (Kevin Durand’s superb and complex villain), whose mission involves bringing all clans together where he can rule with an iron paw. While that ape bends the teachings of Caesar to his own twisted ideology, others succeed in extolling the virtues. This includes orangutan Raka (Peter Macon) who joins Noa on the journey and first exposes him to the dominant force in Rise, Dawn, and War (or more appropriately… Dawn, War, and Rise but’s let not get hung up on it).
Raka is maybe my favorite character in a screenplay (by Avatar: The Way of Water scribe Josh Friedman) filled with promising new ones. I say promising because Kingdom is clearly world building to more installments. In that sense, comparisons to Rise of the Planet of the Apes from 2011 are apt. That tale explained Caesar’s childhood upbringing and eventual imprisonment that created the wide divide between apes and human. The movie itself was lean and efficient with a short runtime compared to Dawn, War, and this. Parts of Kingdom could’ve used a shave and tighter edit. The end result, though, is similar to 2011’s reboot in that I look forward to what’s coming while valuing what I just saw. Wes Ball takes over directorial responsibilities from Matt Reeves, who excelled at making the darker Dawn and War. Ball’s contribution may not be quite as distinctive, but it’s well-executed in reintroducing the audience to its visual landscapes and consistent tug-of-war between species coexisting in them.
This is smarter summer blockbuster sci-fi than any other franchise going and the series has been pulling that off for nearly 60 years. There’s been dips in quality (hi Tim Burton and various portions of the 1970s sequels). These past four Apes sagas have climbed to the top in terms of overall quality.
After playing the Toronto Film Festival in September, Mother, Couch sat around for awhile waiting for distribution. Film Movement picked it up in February and it is slated to hit screens this July. The family dramedy was written and directed by Niclas Larsson and is based a 2020 novel by Jerker Virdborg. Ellen Burstyn plays the first half of the title as she inexplicably and indefinitely sits on a department store furnishing in the second half of the title. This befuddles her children played by Ewan McGregor, Rhys Ifans, and Lara Flynn Boyle. Other costars include Taylor Russell, F. Murray Abraham, and Lake Bell.
Despite a fine cast (including previous winners Burstyn and Abraham), Couch was not a festival highlight according to most critics. The RT score is only 36% and you can count on this pic sitting out awards season. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Lily Gladstone’s work in Martin Scorsese’s Killers of the Flower Moon last year was met with nominations across the awards spectrum with victories at the Golden Globes and SAG. Yet she came up short (and was almost certainly runner-up) at the Academy Awards when Emma Stone took Best Actress for Poor Things.
She may have another at bat with Fancy Dance. The drama/mystery from Erica Tremblay casts Gladstone as an Oklahoman searching for her missing sister while caring for her niece. Isabel DeRoy-Olson, Ryan Begay, and Shea Whigham costar. After its premiere at Sundance in January, Dance is in theaters on a limited basis June 21st before an Apple TV streaming start on June 28th.
Reviews out of Park City were impressive and this stands at 97% on Rotten Tomatoes. This is not as high profile a project as Gladstone’s preceding picture. Apple will need to put together an aggressive campaign for its lead to contend in Actress for a second year in a row. Her chances are lower this time around to make the Academy’s dance, but it’s possible. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Focus Features hopes audiences don’t say no no no to Back to Black when it arrives stateside on May 17th. Sam Taylor-Johnson, best known for making Fifty Shades of Grey, directs the Amy Winehouse biopic with Marisa Abela as the late crooner. Jack O’Connell, Eddie Marsan, and Lesley Manville costar.
Despite middling reviews (only 38% on RT), Black premiered in the #1 spot in the UK about a month ago. Of course, its earnings should be more impressive across the pond. Stateside audiences might be more ambivalent and the shaky word-of-mouth won’t help.
Rolling out on approximately 2000 screens, this could open similarly to last fall’s Priscilla. It did $5.1 million in its wide release and I’ll forecast that this gets just over that.
Back to Black opening weekend prediction: $5.5 million
Three and a half decades ago, Renny Harlin helmed the horror sequel A Nightmare on Elm Street 4: The Dream Master. He’s back in the genre with The Strangers: Chapter 1 on May 17th. It is the third feature in the franchise and the first of a trilogy that are all slated to hit multiplexes this year. Madelaine Petsch (best known for Riverdale), Froy Gutierrez, Rachel Shenton, Gabriel Basso, and Ema Horvath star.
In late May of 2008, The Strangers was a sleeper hit with a $20.9 million debut and $54.5 million overall domestic gross. A decade later, follow-up The Strangers: Prey at Night suffered diminished returns with a $10.4 million start and $24.3 million total.
Lionsgate is taking a gamble with their release strategy of chapter 2 and 3 shortly following. There’s a decent chance it won’t pay off. Scary movies have struggled in 2024. Titles like Night Swim, Imaginary, Immaculate, The First Omen, Abigail, and Tarot have either barely topped $10 million or come in below that figure. I figure The Strangers may experience a similar fate.
The Strangers: Chapter 1 opening weekend prediction: $10.1 million
Paramount is banking on John Krasinski’s latest directorial project to make lots of noise at multiplexes when IF debuts on May 17th. Mixing live-action with animation, the comedy’s real-life cast consists of Ryan Reynolds, Cailey Fleming, Fiona Shaw, Alan Kim, Liza Colón-Zayas, Bobby Moynihan, and Krasinski himself. The sprawling list of performers providing voiceover work includes the filmmaker’s Office costar Steve Carell, Phoebe Waller-Bridge, Krasinski’s spouse Emily Blunt, the late Louis Gossett Jr., Matt Damon, Maya Rudolph, Jon Stewart, Sam Rockwell, Sebastian Maniscalco, Christopher Meloni, Richard Jenkins, Awkwafina, Blake Lively, George Clooney, Matthew Rhys, Bradley Cooper, Amy Schumer, Keegan-Michael Key, and Vince Vaughn.
Handling screenplay duties as well, this is a far cry from the director’s A Quiet Place pics. The summer’s first feature geared toward families, this should capitalize on the absence of genre material in the marketplace (it’s been two months since Kung Fu Panda 4). The title, by the way, stands for Imaginary Friend.
The chance for this to rise above expectations seems real. I think it could make $50 million for starters. It could also start out slowly and hope for decent legs in subsequent weekends. A worst case scenario could be $25-30 million. I’m giving it $35-40 million out of the gate.
IF opening weekend prediction: $36.3 million
For my The Strangers: Chapter 1 prediction, click here:
20th Century Studios is back in the monkey business this weekend with Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes. Wes Ball takes over the directorial reins for the 56-year-old franchise with Owen Teague, Freya Allan, Kevin Durand, Peter Macon, and William H. Macy among the cast.
This is the 10th feature in the series and the previous nine entries netted six total Academy nominations. Three of them went to the 1968 original with nods for its Score and Costume Design as well as an honorary Oscar for its revolutionary makeup artist John Chambers.
Following that, there was a long break between awards mentions. None of the four sequels to Planet (Beneath the Planet of the Planet, Escape from the Planet of the Apes, Conquest of the Planet of the Apes, Battle for the Planet of the Apes) contended in any races. Neither did Tim Burton’s 2001 re-imagining of part 1.
It took Rise of the Planet of the Apes in 2011 and sequels Dawn of the Planet of the Apes (2014) and War for the Planet of the Apes (2017) to get back in the Oscar mix. All 3 were up for their fantastic Visual Effects. The win tally was 0 for 3 as they respectively lost to Hugo, Interstellar, and Blade Runner 2049. Despite high praise for Michael Giacchino’s score and Andy Serkis’s lauded motion capture work as Caesar in that trilogy, VE was the only derby that the Apes ran in.
Kingdom (set many years after the events of War) is perched at 86% on Rotten Tomatoes. That’s just ahead of Rise‘s 82% while a bit behind War‘s 94% and Dawn‘s 91%. Some reviews say its visuals don’t quite match what we witnessed in the previous decade. Yet this seems poised for a fourth nomination in a row in that competition. Like its predecessors, a victory seems unlikely as Dune: Part Two may already have it wrapped up. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes is poised to rule over the box office charts as it looks for a similar opening to its predecessors. We also have Not Another Church Movie, spoofing the Tyler Perry assembly line of features out. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:
I have Kingdom premiering similarly to 2011’s Rise of the Planet of the Apes and 2017’s War for the Planet of the Apes and even a smidge higher. I don’t foresee it reaching the heights of 2014’s Dawn of the Planet of the Apes at $72 million.
As for Church, I’m forecasting its number of parishioners gives it a mid single digits start and that should mean a third place showing. I do believe it has a shot at over performance, per my individual write-up. It could also flame out in the low single digits (this is a tough one).
There’s no question that The Fall Guy did not exceed expectations. In fact, the action comedy with Ryan Gosling and Emily Blunt came in at the lowest end of its anticipated range (more on that below). An A- Cinemascore could mean the sophomore drop won’t be too damaging, but I suspect high 40s to low 50s is where the dip will be.
Holdovers Challengers and the re-release of Star Wars: Episode 1 – The Phantom Menace should round out the top five. The latter’s first weekend back in theaters is probably front loaded. Therefore I see Phantom sliding from 2nd to 5th and Challengers only down one spot in fourth.
Here’s how I see it shaking out:
1. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
Predicted Gross: $55.2 million
2. The Fall Guy
Predicted Gross: $13.3 million
3. Not Another Church Movie
Predicted Gross: $4.9 million
4. Challengers
Predicted Gross: $4.7 million
5. Star Wars: Episode 1 – The Phantom Menance
Predicted Gross: $4 million
Box Office Results (May 3-5)
Despite the Barbenheimer pedigree (the pics that ruled summer 2023), The Fall Guy‘s performance was stunted at just $27.7 million. That’s well under my $38.3 million prediction and a letdown considering the reported $150 million price tag. For the past decade and a half, the MCU/Disney has owned the first weekend of May that marks the official start of cinematic summer. With that franchise sitting it out, audiences responded with indifference to the Gosling and Blunt show.
The Mouse Factory did bank some more cash for its Star Wars franchise. Marking its 25th anniversary and despite its checkered reputation, the re-release of The Phantom Menace took in $8.7 million for second place. It certainly didn’t hurt that Saturday fell on May 4th (a sacred date for many fans). That tops my $6.8 million forecast as the first episode is now at $483 million stateside in the last quarter century.
Challengers was third with $7.5 million, on target with my $7.9 million call. Zendaya’s sports drama eased an expected 49% to bring its two-week total to $29 million.
Poorly reviewed horror flick Tarot had a fourth place debut in the cards with $6.5 million, a bit over my $5.6 million projection. Look for this to fade fast as have other recent genre offerings.
Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire rounded out the top five with $4.5 million (I said $4.7 million) to bring its haul to $188 million after six weeks.
Finally, faith-based drama Unsung Hero fell considerably further in weekend #2 than I figured. In seventh place, its $2.9 million gross was well under my estimate of $5.4 million. The total is $13 million.
Chris Pine makes his directorial debut, cowrites, and stars in Poolman which wades into theaters in a limited pattern this Friday. The comedic noir has a sizable supporting cast including Annette Bening, DeWanda Wise, Stephen Tobolowsky, Clancy Brown, John Ortiz, Ray Wise, Juliet Mills, Ariana DeBose, Jennifer Jason Leigh, and Danny DeVito.
An eagerly awaited premiere at the Toronto Film Festival last fall, Poolman flopped upon its unveiling. The RT score is just 23%. It is safe to assume that the Star Trek and Wonder Woman franchise player won’t get to bring this title character back. We certainly won’t see any awards mentions. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
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