Tag: ryan gosling

99th Academy Awards Predictions: June 14th Edition

It’s been two weeks since my last round of predictions in Best Picture, Director, and the four acting competitions. With mid-June upon us, I am now adding my first takes on the two screenplay derbies.

What’s changed in the last two weeks? In my estimation, Obsession has picked up considerable momentum with its astonishing box office performance. I am now vaulting the low-budget horror smash from #25 all the way into the BP lineup. Additionally, I am now thinking that Focus Features will slot Inde Navarrette and her buzzy performance to Supporting Actress and I’m placing her in my quintet all the way in second position.

While Obsession‘s fortunes have risen, I would say Disclosure Day from Steven Spielberg has taken a slight downturn. The sci-fi saga which debuted this weekend in line with financial expectations (though certainly not over them) will have to battle other blockbusters (Project Hail Mary, The Odyssey, Dune: Part Three) over the next several months for awards viability. It could still get in (and so could Emily Blunt in Actress). However, the non-gushing critical response and mixed audience reaction is a potential roadblock.

Trailers can be deceiving when evaluating a picture’s Oscar chances. Yet I have to admit that I found our first look at The Social Reckoning underwhelming and I dropped it from my BP lineup, putting it just on the outside looking in.

You can read all the movement below!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Black Ball (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Digger (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (-1)

6. Fjord (PR: 6) (E)

7. No One Cares (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Cry to Heaven (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Obsession (PR: 25) (+15)

Other Possibilities:

11. The Social Reckoning (PR: 9) (-2)

12. All of a Sudden (PR: 12) (E)

13. A Place in Hell (PR: 15) (+2)

14. Disclosure Day (PR: 11) (-2)

15. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 14) (-1)

16. Fatherland (PR: 13) (-3)

17. Behemoth! (PR: 19) (+2)

18. Werwulf (PR: 16) (-2)

19. Jack of Spades (PR: 18) (-1)

20. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 17) (-3)

21. Josephine (PR: 23) (+2)

22. Saturn Return (PR: 24) (+2)

23. Michael (PR: 22) (-1)

24. Being Heumann (PR: 20) (-4)

25. Club Kid (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Entertainment System is Down

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo, The Black Ball (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Digger (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Cristian Mingiu, Fjord (PR: 6) (E)

7. Tom Ford, Cry to Heaven (PR: 7) (E)

8. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three (PR: 8) (E)

9. Curry Barker, Obsession (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Pawel Pawlikowski, Fatherland (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Jesse Eisenberg, No One Cares (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Chloe Domont, A Place in Hell (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Georgia Oakley, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 14) (E)

15. Robert Eggers, Werwulf (PR: 15) (E)

Dropped Out:

Steven Spielberg, Disclosure Day

Aaron Sorkin, The Social Reckoning

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Renate Reinsve, Fjord (PR: 1) (E)

2. Julianne Moore, No One Cares (PR: 2) (E)

3. Michelle Williams, A Place in Hell (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sandra Hüller, Fatherland (PR: 6) (E)

7. Emily Blunt, Disclosure Day (PR: 7) (E)

8. Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 11) (+3)

9. Sandra Hüller, Rose (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie (PR: 8) (-2)

11. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Mason Reeves, Josephine (PR: 14) (+2)

13. Sophie Okonedo, Clarissa (PR: 13) (E)

14. Penélope Cruz, Bunker (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Léa Seydoux, Gentle Monster (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Inde Navarrette, Obsession (moved to Supporting Actress)

Rachel Brosnahan, Saturn Return

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Tom Cruise, Digger (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sebastian Stan, Fjord (PR: 3) (E)

4. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (E)

5. Matt Damon, The Odyssey (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. John Turturro, The Only Living Pickpocket in New York (PR: 13) (+7)

7. Pedro Pascal, Behemoth! (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Nicholas Hoult, Cry to Heaven (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Jaafar Jackson, Michael (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Dominic Sessa, Tony (PR: 8) (-2)

11. Robert Pattinson, Primetime (PR: 11) (E)

12. Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Three (PR: 12) (E)

13. Hanns Zischler, Fatherland (PR: 14) (+1)

14. Rami Malek, The Man I Love (PR: 10 (-4)

15. Jordan Firstman, Club Kid (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Javier Bardem, The Beloved

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mariana Di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (E)

2. Inde Navarrette, Obsession (PR: Not Ranked – moved from lead Actress)

3. Sandra Hüller, Digger (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Penélope Cruz, The Black Ball (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Tao Okamoto, All of a Sudden (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey (PR: 3) (-3)

7. Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Daisy Edgar-Jones, A Place in Hell (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Esmé Creed-Miles, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 10) (E)

11. Penélope Cruz, The Invite (PR: 13) (+2)

12. Halle Bailey, No One Cares (PR: 9) (-3)

13. Scarlet Johansson, Paper Tiger (PR: 15) (+2)

14. Elizabeth Debicki, The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 11) (-3)

15. Lesley Manville, Jack of Spades (PR: 14) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Adele, Cry to Heaven

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Paul Giamatti, No One Cares (PR: 1) (E)

2. John Goodman, Digger (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Robert Pattinson, The Odyssey (PR: 4) (E)

5. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning (PR: 6) (E)

7. Jesse Plemons, Digger (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Colman Domingo, Michael (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Andrew Scott, A Place in Hell (PR: 13) (+4)

10. Riz Ahmed, Digger (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Channing Tatum, Josephine (PR: 12) (+1)

12. James Ortiz, Project Hail Mary (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Tom Holland, The Odyssey (PR: 10) (-3)

14. Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Cry to Heaven (PR: 7) (-7)

15. Owen Cooper, Cry to Heaven (PR: 11) (-4)

Dropped Out:

Mark Ruffalo, Being Heumann

Antonio Banderas, Tony

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wild Horse Nine

2. Digger

3. Fjord

4. No One Cares

5. A Place in Hell

Other Possibilities:

6. Obsession

7. Behemoth!

8. Club Kid

9. Fatherland

10. Jack of Spades

11. Primetime

12. Josephine

13. The Drama

14. Disclosure Day

15. Saturn Return

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Black Ball

2. The Odyssey

3. Project Hail Mary

4. All of a Sudden

5. Cry to Heaven

Other Possibilties:

6. The Social Reckoning

7. Dune: Part Three

8. Sense and Sensibility

9. The Invite

10. The Adventures of Cliff Booth

11. Prima Facie

12. Being Heumann

13. A Long Winter

14. Tony

15. Minotaur

Oscar Predictions: Disclosure Day

Disclosure Day, which returns Steven Spielberg to the extraterrestrial genre, marks the 34th feature from the iconic filmmaker. Of the previous 33, only five failed to receive at least Oscar nomination: 1974’s The Sugarland Express, 1989’s Always, 2004’s The Terminal, 2008’s Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull, and 2016’s The BFG. That’s one heckuva percentage with the Academy and it’s highly unlikely that Disclosure Day will become the sixth to blank with voters.

Out this weekend, the sci-fi tale reunites the director with his frequent screenwriter David Koepp. Emily Blunt, Josh O’Connor, Colin Firth, Eve Hewson, Wyatt Russell, and Colman Domingo headline the cast. The review embargo is up with an encouraging 88% on Rotten Tomatoes and 74 on Metacritic.

Finding Spielberg back in the blockbuster territory for the first time since 2018’s Ready Player One, this is not as Oscar baity as his last two projects (West Side Story and The Fabelmans). As far as Disclosure‘s Best Picture prospects, the possibility is there under a best case scenario. However, other mass appeal pics like Project Hail Mary (which has probably punched its BP ticket) and the upcoming The Odyssey and Dune: Part Three loom. If it manages to get into BP, Spielberg could follow suit in director. Original Screenplay might be more of a challenge.

It’s no surprise that the film’s strongest chances lie below the line, particularly in Sound and Visual Effects. Then there’s John Williams. Spielberg’s most frequent collaborator could manage an Original Score mention. He would be 95 when the 99th ceremony airs and it would mark his 55th (!) nomination with five victories to his legendary name.

As far as the cast, Firth is getting good ink. Yet it’s Blunt who could make the cut in Best Actress. Competition will clearly be key, but she is being heralded in what some critics are calling career-best work. She is nowhere near as guaranteed to get in as her The Fall Guy costar Ryan Gosling is for Hail Mary, but Blunt definitely has a prayer. If so, it would mark only her second attempt at Academy gold after being up in Supporting Actress for 2023’s Oppenheimer.

Bottom line: Disclosure Day will keep its maker’s popularity with the Academy intact. The number of nominations is the real mystery. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: The Only Living Pickpocket in New York

John Turturro has had a decades long critically acclaimed career with memorable performances in Do the Right Thing, Miller’s Crossing, Barton Fink, Quiz Show, and O Brother Where Art Thou to name a handful. He has not found a role that has given him an Oscar nomination. Could that change with The Only Living Pickpocket in New York?

The crime thriller debuted in Sundance back in January and made a festival stop in Berlin. Noah Segan directs with Turturro as the title character and a supporting cast including Giancarlo Esposito, Tatiana Maslany, Will Price, Steve Buscemi, Lori Tan Chinn, Karina Arroyave, Victoria Moroles, and Jamie Lee Curtis. Impressive reviews greeted it with 100% on Rotten Tomatoes and an 83 Metacritic. Sony Pictures Classics picked up distribution rights with a planned release for the fall. With a robust campaign, Original Screenplay could be a (somewhat remote) possibility. Yet the studio may focus solely on getting Turturro that first shot with the Academy.

On paper, Best Actor is looking crowded with potential heavy hitters like Tom Cruise (Digger), Matt Damon (The Odyssey), and John Malkovich (Wild Horse Nine) on deck and Ryan Gosling (Project Hail Mary) probably with a reserved slot. However, I wouldn’t discount the overdue narrative helping to get Turturro firmly in the mix. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

99th Academy Awards Predictions: May 30th Edition

It’s been over three weeks since I’ve updated my Oscar predictions in the six major categories of Picture, Director, and the four acting races. A little thing called the Cannes Film Festival happened in between. In the past few cycles, you can usually count on 2-3 films screened in the French Riviera to eventually make the Best Picture cut at the Academy Awards.

Some features like Na Hong-jin’s Hope and James Gray’s Paper Tiger saw their fortunes take a hit. I would say there are four titles that standing the best chance at finding themselves in the Oscar mix: Cristian Mingiu’s Fjord (which won the Palme d’Or), Ryusuke Hamaguchi’s All of a Sudden, Fatherland from Pawel Pawlkowski, and especially The Black Ball from Javier Calvo and Javier Ambrossi. You can read my detailed prediction posts on the those Cannes titles and more on the blog from the past few days. There’s others that could gain momentum including Minotaur, Coward, and Club Kid.

Steven Spielberg’s Disclosure Day didn’t screen at Cannes, but is readying release on June 12th. Influencers who’ve seen it are highly positive. That said, it is a wise practice to wait until the real review embargo lapses to get a clear picture of its awards viability. For now, I have the movie, Spielberg, and Emily Blunt just on the outside looking in.

The horror flick Obsession drew rave critical reactions and fantastic box office numbers that are continuing to grow. This has truly opened the door for Inde Navarrette to snag an acting nod and, in a best case scenario, BP inclusion (still seems like a long shot but you never know). It’s a legit question as to whether Navarrette competes in lead Actress or Supporting Actress. For now, I’m slotting her as a possibility (though not yet a nominee) in the former. Focus Features will clear it up as some point though it might be a while.

You can read all the movement below and I’ll have the next update available in mid-June!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)

3. Digger (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (-1)

5. The Black Ball (PR: Not Ranked)

6. Fjord (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Dune: Part Three (PR: 8) (+1)

8. No One Cares (PR: 6) (-2)

9. The Social Reckoning (PR: 9) (E)

10. Cry to Heaven (PR: 12) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

11. Disclosure Day (PR: Not Ranked)

12. All of a Sudden (PR: 10) (-2)

13. Fatherland (PR: 7) (-6)

14. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 17) (+2)

15. A Place in Hell (PR: 13) (-2)

16. Werwulf (PR: 15) (-1)

17. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 25) (+8)

18. Jack of Spades (PR: 20) (+2)

19. Behemoth! (PR: 23) (+4)

20. Being Heumann (PR: 21) (+1)

21. The Entertainment System is Down (PR: 19) (-2)

22. Michael (PR: 24) (+2)

23. Josephine (PR: 17) (-6)

24. Saturn Return (PR: 18) (-6)

25. Obsession (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Hope

Paper Tiger

A Long Winter

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Digger (PR: 2) (E)

3. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Javier Calva and Javier Ambrossi, The Black Ball (PR: Not Ranked)

5. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Cristian Mingiu, Fjord (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Tom Ford, Cry to Heaven (PR: 11) (+4)

8. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three (PR: 8) (E)

9. Pawel Pawlikowski, Fatherland (PR: 6) (-3)

10. Steven Spielberg, Disclosure Day (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden (PR: 7) (-4)

12. Jesse Eisenberg, No One Cares (PR: 9) (-3)

13. Aaron Sorkin, The Social Reckoning (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Georgia Oakley, Sense and Sensibility (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Robert Eggers, Werwulf (PR: 13) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Na Hong-jin, Hope

James Gray, Paper Tiger

Greg Kwedar, Saturn Return

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Renate Reinsve, Fjord (PR: 1) (E)

2. Julianne Moore, No One Cares (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Michelle Williams, A Place in Hell (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sandra Hüller, Fatherland (PR: 2) (-4)

7. Emily Blunt, Disclosure Day (PR: Not Raked)

8. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Inde Navarrette, Obsession (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Sandra Hüller, Rose (PR: 8) (-2)

11. Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann (PR: 9) (-3)

13. Sophie Okonedo, Clarissa (PR: 10) (-3)

14. Mason Reeves, Josephine (PR: 11) (-3)

15. Rachel Brosnahan, Saturn Return (PR: 13) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Penélope Cruz, Bunker

Lily Gladstone, The Memory Police

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Tom Cruise, Digger (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sebastian Stan, Fjord (PR: 3) (E)

4. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (E)

5. Matt Damon, The Odyssey (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Nicholas Hoult, Cry to Heaven (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Jaafar Jackson, Michael (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Dominic Sessa, Tony (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Pedro Pascal, Behemoth! (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Rami Malek, The Man I Love (PR: 14) (+4)

11. Robert Pattinson, Primetime (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Three (PR: 15) (+3)

13. John Turturro, The Only Living Pickpocket in New York City (PR: 10) (-3)

14. Hanns Zischler, Fatherland (PR: 5) (-9)

15. Javier Bardem, The Beloved (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Jeremy Allen White, The Social Reckoning

Adam Driver, Paper Tiger

Josh O’Connor, Jack of Spades

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mariana Di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sandra Hüller, Digger (PR: 2) (E)

3. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey (PR: 7) (+4)

4. Tao Okamoto, All of a Sudden (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Penélope Cruz, The Black Ball (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (-3)

7. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Daisy Edgar-Jones, A Place in Hell (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Halle Bailey, No One Cares (PR: 4) (-5)

10. Esmé Creed-Miles, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Elizabeth Debicki, The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Adele, Cry to Heaven (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Penélope Cruz, The Invite (PR: 14) (+1)

14. Lesley Manville, Jack of Spades (PR: 10) (-4)

15. Scarlett Johansson, Paper Tiger (PR: 9) (-6)

Dropped Out:

Kirsten Dunst, The Entertainment System is Down

Caitriona Balfe, A Long Winter

Gemma Chan, Josephine

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Paul Giamatti, No One Cares (PR: 1) (E)

2. John Goodman, Digger (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Robert Pattinson, The Odyssey (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning (PR: 6) (E)

7. Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Cry to Heaven (PR: 15) (+8)

8. Jesse Plemons, Digger (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Colman Domingo, Michael (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Tom Holland, The Odyssey (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Owen Cooper, Cry to Heaven (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Channing Tatum, Josephine (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Andrew Scott, A Place in Hell (PR: 8) (-5)

14. Mark Ruffalo. Being Heumann (PR: 12) (-2)

15. Antonio Banderas, Tony (PR: 14) (-1)

Dropped Out:

David Oyelowo, Clarissa

99th Academy Awards Predictions: May 6th Edition

My second helping of ranked Oscar predictions for next year’s 99th ceremony can be called the pre-Cannes estimates. That festival in the French Riviera kicks off May 12th and runs through May 23rd. It will be our first look at several potential contenders: Ryusuke Hamaguchi’s All of a Sudden, Pawel Pawlikowski’s Fatherland, Cristian Mungiu’s Fjord, Na Hong-jin’s Hope, James Gray’s Paper Tiger, and The Man I Love from Ira Sachs to name a few. Keep an eye on the blog for my individual posts exploring the viability of the screening pictures.

The Academy made some news of its own by announcing rule changes. The most significant is that actors can be nominated twice in the same category. There’s been recent examples of when this could have resulted in a performer getting two nods. I would say most recently that Sebastian Stan could have benefited. He was nominated in lead Actor for The Apprentice and a double shot was possible via A Different Man. Going back a ways, Kate Winslet won Best Actress in 2008 for The Reader and might have seen her name pop again for Revolutionary Road. In 2006, Kate’s Titanic mate Leonardo DiCaprio was in contention for Blood Diamond. He could have easily landed another shot via The Departed.

In International Feature Film, the criteria has always been that a submitting nation can choose just one entrant for consideration. While that rule holds, the Academy has added another path to get in. If a picture wins a qualifying international festival (such as Cannes, Berlin, Toronto, Sundance, Venice), it is now a contender. This would have helped Anatomy of a Fall in 2023 since France did not choose it as their representative picture, but it emerged victorious for the Palme d’Or at Cannes.

Since my last update in mid-April, Michael opened to gigantic box office and mediocre reviews. While the audience score on Rotten Tomatoes is high, critical griping could cripple its viability at the Oscars. However, I wouldn’t completely rule out the acclaimed work of Jaafar Jackson and Colman Domingo. Best Picture? Probably a bridge too far despite the gaudy numbers.

The Devil Wears Prada 2 also hit multiplexes. While Meryl Streep was a Best Actress nominee 20 years ago for the original, a second at-bat seems like a reach. The sequel could materialize, however, in Costume Design and/or Original Song where Lady Gaga has a track. Those categories won’t be forecasted until a few weeks down the line.

We also learned that Narnia: The Magician’s Nephew from Greta Gerwig will not be out (on Netflix) until 2027. I had it on the outside looking in at #11. It drops from contention this time around.

You can read all the speculation below and my next update will arrive as Cannes concludes!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)

3. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Digger (PR: 5) (E)

5. Fjord (PR: 6) (E)

6. No One Cares (PR: 6) (E)

7. Fatherland (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Dune: Part Three (PR: 10) (+2)

9. The Social Reckoning (PR: 9) (E)

10. All of a Sudden (PR: 7) (-3)

Other Possibilities:

11. Hope (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Cry to Heaven (PR: 16) (+4)

13. A Place in Hell (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Paper Tiger (PR: 21) (+7)

15. Werwulf (PR: 18) (+3)

16. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 23) (+7)

17. Josephine (PR: 17) (E)

18. Saturn Return (PR: 22) (+4)

19. The Entertainment System is Down (PR: 14) (-5)

20. Jack of Spades (PR: 24) (+4)

21. Being Heumann (PR: 15) (-6)

22. A Long Winter (PR: 13) (-9)

23. Behemoth! (PR: 25) (+2)

24. Michael (PR: 20) (-4)

25. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 19) (-6)

Dropped Out:

Narnia: The Magician’s Nephew

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Alejandro Gonzalez Iñárritu, Digger (PR: 2) (E)

3. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Cristian Mingiu, Fjord (PR: 3) (+1)

5. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Pawel Pawlikowski, Fatherland (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Jesse Eisenberg, No One Cares (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Na Hong-jin, Hope (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Tom Ford, Cry to Heaven (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Aaron Sorkin, The Social Reckoning (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Robert Eggers, Werwulf (PR: 14) (+1)

14. James Gray, Paper Tiger (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Greg Kwedar, Saturn Return (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Greta Gerwig, Narnia: The Magician’s Nephew

Ruben Östlund, The Entertainment System is Down

David Fincher, The Adventures of Cliff Booth

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Renate Reinsve, Fjord (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sandra Hüller, Fatherland (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Julianne Moore, No One Cares (PR: 3) (E)

4. Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Michelle Williams, A Place in Hell (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden (PR: 6) (E)

7. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Sandra Hüller, Rose (PR: 11) (+3)

9. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Sophie Okonedo, Clarissa (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Mason Reeves, Josephine (PR: 8) (-3)

12. Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 14) (+2)

13. Rachel Brosnahan, Saturn Return (PR: 13) (E)

14. Penélope Cruz, Bunker (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Lily Gladstone, The Memory Police (PR: 12) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Amy Adams, At the Sea

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Tom Cruise, Digger (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sebastian Stan, Fjord (PR: 4) (+1)

4. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Hanns Zischler, Fatherland (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Matt Damon, The Odyssey (PR: 6) (E)

7. Dominic Sessa, Tony (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Jaafar Jackson, Michael (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Nicholas Hoult, Cry to Heaven (PR: 9) (E)

10. John Turturro, The Only Living Pickpocket in New York (PR: 15) (+5)

11. Jeremy Allen White, The Social Reckoning (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Adam Driver, Paper Tiger (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Josh O’Connor, Jack of Spades (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Rami Malek, The Man I Love (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Three (PR: 11) (-4)

Dropped Out:

Robert Aramayo, I Swear

Pedro Pascal, Behemoth!

Brad Pitt, The Adventures of Cliff Booth

Charles Melton, Saturn Return

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mariana di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Sandra Hüller, Digger (PR: 6) (+4)

3. Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (-2)

4. Halle Bailey, No One Cares (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Daisy Edgar-Jones, A Place in Hell (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Tao Okamato, All of a Sudden (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 8) (E)

9. Scarlett Johannson, Paper Tiger (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Lesley Manville, Jack of Spades (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Esmé Creed-Miles, Sense and Sensibility (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Kirsten Dunst, The Entertainment System is Down (PR: 12) (E)

13. Caitriona Balfe, A Long Winter (PR: 9) (-4)

14. Penélope Cruz, The Invite (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Gemma Chan, Josephine (PR: 13) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Wunmi Mosaku, The Social Reckoning

Frances McDormand, Jack of Spades

Elizabeth Debicki, The Adventures of Cliff Booth

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Paul Giamatti, No One Cares (PR: 1) (E)

2. John Goodman, Digger (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Robert Pattinson, The Odyssey (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning (PR: 6) (-1)

7. Colman Domingo, Michael (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Andrew Scott, A Place in Hell (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Tom Holland, The Odyssey (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Jesse Plemons, Digger (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Channing Tatum, Josephine (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Mark Ruffalo, Being Heumann (PR: 9) (-3)

13. David Oyelowo, Clarissa (PR: 13) (E)

14. Antonio Banderas, Tony (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Cry to Heaven (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Daniel Brühl, The Entertainment System is Down

Riz Ahmed, Digger

    99th Academy Awards Predictions: April 19th Edition

    Barely a month beyond the 98th edition of the Academy Awards, we have arrived at my first ranked predictions for the 99th ceremony. We begin with six major categories – Best Picture, Director, and the four acting derbies.

    I gave you my first ranked glimpses for the previous telecast around the same time last year in these same races. How did that impossibly early forecast turn out? I correctly called four of the eventual ten BP nominees with Hamnet, Marty Supreme, Sentimental Value, and Sinners. Winner One Battle After Another as well as Bugonia, F1, and Frankenstein were listed in Other Possibilities. So 80% of the BP contenders were identified with The Secret Agent and Train Dreams not being mentioned in April 2025.

    In Best Director, three of the five filmmakers were predicted: Ryan Coogler (Sinners), Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme), and Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value). Statue recipient Paul Thomas Anderson from One Battle and Chloé Zhao (Hamnet) were in Other Possibilities.

    As for Best Actress, Jessie Buckley (Hamnet) swept the season and was in my predicted quintet. So was Sentimental Value‘s Renate Reinsve while Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You) and Emma Stone (Bugonia) were in Other Possibilities. Only Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue) wasn’t listed. In Best Actor, Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme) was in my quintet. Three others – winner Michael B. Jordan (Sinners), Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another), and Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon) were Other Possibilities with Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent) as the sole thespian not identified.

    My projected Supporting Actress five rightly named Teyana Taylor (One Battle) with Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value) as a possibility. Fanning’s costar Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Wumni Mosaku (Sinners), and the victorious Amy Madigan (Weapons) were not found among my possibilities. In Supporting Actor, Stellan Skarsgård from Value was in my five with winner Sean Penn (One Battle) and Delroy Lindo (Sinners) as possibilities. Battle‘s Benicio del Toro and Frankenstein‘s Jacob Elordi were not to be found yet.

    Let’s get some caveats out of the way. Some of the performers listed in lead will end up in supporting and vice versa. As an example, I figured Paul Mescal (Hamnet) would go lead for that film last year, but he was slotted in supporting. He ended up not being nominated but likely came close. For instance in this year’s listings, I don’t know if Sam Rockwell will be lead or supporting for Wild Horse Nine but my hunch says the latter at press time. The distributor will eventually clear that up.

    We will see pictures push to 2027. When I did my initial projections a year ago for 2025, Michael and The Rivals of Amziah King were thought to be releases for that calendar frame. Both are being put out in ’26. I have Michael still as a potential nominee in some competitions. Not so at this time for Rivals.

    And now the most important forewarning. Some movies you find below will turn out to be non-contenders. My inaugural look at the 98th Oscars listed Luca Guadagnino’s After the Hunt at #1 in Best Picture, Director, Actress (Julia Roberts), #4 in Supporting Actress (Ayo Edebiri), and #2 in Supporting Actor (Andrew Garfield). After its Venice festival premiere, the mixed to negative reaction drastically changed its narrative. It ended up with zero nominations. My April 2025 #1’s in the supporting fields – Ariana Grande (Wicked: For Good) and Adam Sandler (Jay Kelly) – did not make final cut either.

    So take this speculation as what it is – speculative. The picture and Best Picture will become clearer in time. That said, a reminder that 80% of the BP nominees were mentioned a year ago in addition to 100% of the directors and 80% of the lead acting hopefuls could be found in the initial post. On the flip side, nearly all of my acting picks for a nomination are coming from projected BP nominees and the percentage probably won’t be quite that high.

    When Sinners came out last year, it was a box office juggernaut with widespread critical acclaim. Yet I wondered whether the spring release could mean it would fall by the wayside months down the line. That’s why I named it in Other Possibilities for Picture, Director, Actor, and Supporting Actor. What happened months down the line? A record-setting 16 nominations with Jordan winning Actor. I won’t make the same mistake with Project Hail Mary. It has been out for weeks and already looks like a strong contender in Picture, Director, Actor, and possibly Supporting Actress. Another note – it’s not often (or maybe ever) you see a performer mentioned four times. That’s the case at the moment with the busy Sandra Hüller who is a legit threat twice in lead Actress and supporting.

    You can expect these posts to hit the blog every couple of weeks until it becomes weekly. This should occur when festival season goes into overdrive in last summer/early fall.

    BEST PICTURE

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. The Odyssey

    2. Project Hail Mary

    3. Wild Horse Nine

    4. Digger

    5. Fjord

    6. No One Cares

    7. All of a Sudden

    8. Fatherland

    9. The Social Reckoning

    10. Dune: Part Three

    Other Possibilities:

    11. Narnia: The Magican’s Nephew

    12. A Place in Hell

    13. A Long Winter

    14. The Entertainment System is Down

    15. Being Heumann

    16. Cry to Heaven

    17. Josephine

    18. Werwulf

    19. The Adventures of Cliff Booth

    20. Michael

    21. Paper Tiger

    22. Saturn Return

    23. Sense and Sensibility

    24. Jack of Spades

    25. Behemoth!

    BEST DIRECTOR

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey

    2. Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Digger

    3. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary

    4. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine

    5. Cristian Mingiu, Fjord

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden

    7. Pawel Pawlikowski, Fatherland

    8. Jesse Eisenberg, No One Cares

    9. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three

    10. Greta Gerwig, Narnia: The Magician’s Nephew

    11. Ruben Östlund, The Entertainment System is Down

    12. Tom Ford, Cry to Heaven

    13. Aaron Sorkin, The Social Reckoning

    14. Robert Eggers, Werwulf

    15. David Fincher, The Adventures of Cliff Booth

    BEST ACTRESS

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Renate Reinsve, Fjord

    2. Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning

    3. Julianne Moore, No One Cares

    4. Sandra Hüller, Fatherland

    5. Michelle Williams, A Place in Hell

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden

    7. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann

    8. Mason Reeves, Josephine

    9. Sophie Okenedo, Clarissa

    10. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie

    11. Sandra Hüller, Rose

    12. Lily Gladstone, The Memory Police

    13. Rachel Brosnahan, Saturn Return

    14. Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility

    15. Amy Adams, At the Sea

    BEST ACTOR

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Tom Cruise, Digger

    2. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary

    3. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine

    4. Sebastian Stan, Fjord

    5. Hanns Zischler, Fatherland

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Matt Damon, The Odyssey

    7. Robert Aramayo, I Swear

    8. Dominic Sessa, Tony

    9. Nicholas Hoult, Cry to Heaven

    10. Jafaar Jackson, Michael

    11. Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Three

    12. Pedro Pascal, Behemoth!

    13. Brad Pitt, The Adventures of Cliff Booth

    14. Charles Melton, Saturn Return

    15. John Turturro, The Only Pickpocket Living in New York

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine

    2. Mariana Di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine

    3. Halle Bailey, No One Cares

    4. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey

    5. Tao Okamoto, All of a Sudden

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Sandra Hüller, Digger

    7. Daisy Edgar-Jones, A Place in Hell

    8.. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary

    9. Caitriona Balfe, A Long Winter

    10. Scarlett Johansson, Paper Tiger

    11. Wunmi Mosaku, The Social Reckoning

    12. Kirsten Dunst, The Entertainment System is Down

    13. Gemma Chan, Josephine

    14. Frances McDormand, Jack of Spades

    15. Elizabeth Debicki, The Adventures of Cliff Booth

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Paul Giamatti, No One Cares

    2. John Goodman, Digger

    3. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine

    4. Colman Domingo, Michael

    5. Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine

    7. Andrew Scott, A Place in Hell

    8. Tom Holland, The Odyssey

    9. Mark Ruffalo, Being Heumann

    10. D’Pharaoh Woon-A-Tai, A Long Winter

    11. Jesse Plemons, Digger

    12. Channing Tatum, Josephine

    13. David Oyelowo, Clarissa

    14. Daniel Brühl, The Entertainment System is Down

    15. Riz Ahmed, Digger

    99th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Actor

    And we are off to the races with my first Oscar predictions for the 99th Academy Awards.

    We are a couple weeks removed from the 98th ceremony so let us begin some ridiculously early speculation! These are my inaugural glimpses at the four acting derbies, Director, and Picture. They will unfold on the blog over the next few days. I already posted my take in the supporting fields and they can be found here:

    99th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Supporting Actress
    99th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Supporting Actor

    We arrive at Best Actor. When I did my first picks for last year’s race, I correctly named one of the eventual five nominees and that was Timothée Chalamet for Marty Supreme. In Other Possibilities, I identified Leonardo DiCaprio in One Battle After Another. At that early juncture, I did not list the eventual winner Michael B. Jordan (Sinners), Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon), or Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent).

    Let’s get some caveats out of the way… it’s early. Some movies listed are likely to be pushed back or simply not turn out to be awards contenders. Actors listed here could end up being campaigned in supporting. And there will be movies we’re not even anticipating that will rise up with performances currently not on the radar.

    For this premiere post, it’s probable that we already know one member of the quintet and that’s Ryan Gosling in Project Hail Mary. His film is a box office juggernaut and he has to carry much of the running time by himself. If he makes the cut, it would mark his fourth attempt at the gold statue behind lead noms for Half Nelson and La La Land and a supporting nod for Barbie.

    He’s not the only star potentially in line for a fourth mention. The same holds true for Tom Cruise in Alejandro Gonzales Inarritu’s Digger. He won an honorary Oscar at the 98th ceremony, but is 0 for 3 in the competitive races are being up in lead for Born on the Fourth of July and Jerry Maguire and in supporting for Magnolia.

    We aren’t finished yet talking about thespians getting their fourth nominations. Matt Damon contended for lead in Good Will Hunting and The Martian and a supporting turn in Invictus. His 4th try could come via Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey.

    John Malkovich is probably going lead for Martin McDonagh’s Wild Horse Nine after two supporting attempts for Places in the Heart and In the Line of Fire. He could make it in for the first time in 33 years.

    For my fifth pick, I’m perhaps going out a limb and selecting Robert Aramayo (I Swear) who pulled off a BAFTA upset in Best Actor weeks ago. It comes out stateside in a couple of weeks and could have enough staying power for the BAFTA recipient to stake a claim. I’ll admit this a long shot projection, but hey it’s early right?

    The speculation will continue in earnest during the weeks and months ahead, but here’s the first snapshot for Best Actor. Best Actress up next!

    TODD’S FIRST OSCAR PREDICTIONS FOR BEST ACTOR AT THE 99TH ACADEMY AWARDS

    Robert Aramayo, I Swear

    Tom Cruise, Digger

    Matt Damon, The Odyssey

    Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary

    John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine

    Other Possibilities:

    Adam Driver, Paper Tiger

    Andrew Garfield, Artificial

    Nicholas Hoult, Cry to Heaven

    Jaafar Jackson, Michael

    Josh O’Connor, Jack of Spades

    Pedro Pascal, Behemoth!

    Will Poulter, Saturn Return

    Dominic Sessa, Tony

    Sebastian Stan, Fjord

    Hanns Zischler, Fatherland

    April 3-5 Box Office Predictions

    The Super Mario Galaxy Movie should play to domestic and worldwide domination over the Easter holiday as April dawns. Illumination Entertainment’s animated sequel debuts alongside Zendaya and Robert Pattinson in The Drama. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newbies here:

    The Super Mario Galaxy Movie Box Office Prediction
    The Drama Box Office Prediction

    Three Easters back, The Super Mario Bros. Movie blew past expectations with nearly $150 million from Friday to Sunday and over $200 million when counting Wednesday and Thursday. Galaxy is smartly following the same release pattern. While I don’t think the results will be quite as much, it should surpass Project Hail Mary as the year’s largest premiere.

    Speaking of Mary, there’s something about its second weekend that was remarkable (more on that below). The sci-fi tale with Ryan Gosling should have no trouble being strong in the runner-up position after two weeks on top.

    As for The Drama, it’s more of a question mark. It looks to draw upon the star appeal of its young leads. I have it earning a tad more than Zendaya’s Challengers from 2024 in the mid teens for a third place showing.

    Holdovers Hoppers and Reminders of Him should round out the top five and here’s how I have it rolling out:

    1. The Super Mario Galaxy Movie

    Predicted Gross: $126.5 million (Friday to Sunday); $171.2 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

    2. Project Hail Mary

    Predicted Gross: $35.2 million

    3. The Drama

    Predicted Gross: $16.7 million

    4. Hoppers

    Predicted Gross: $8 million

    5. Reminders of Him

    Predicted Gross: $2.9 million

    Box Office Results (March 27-29)

    Amazon MGM had a banner sophomore frame with Project Hail Mary. After launching to $80 million, the acclaimed adaptation of Andy Weir’s novel declined a meager 33% to $54 million for a two-week haul of $163 million. Eclipsing my $44.8 million prediction, a domestic end run of over $300 million appears to be happening as the crowd favorite builds Oscar steam.

    Hoppers remained in second with $12.1 million, right in line with my $12 million call. Disney/Pixar’s original story has risen to $138 million after four weeks.

    Comedic horror entry They Will Kill You was DOA in its unveiling. With $4.9 million in third, the Warner Bros release failed to hit my $6.3 million forecast. Look for it to fade fast.

    Reminders of Him was fourth with $4.7 million, on target with my $4.3 million estimate. The romantic drama has made a respectable $41 million after three weeks.

    Dhurandhar: The Revenge was right behind in fifth with $4.6 million and I incorrectly had it outside of the high five. The total is $22 million after two weeks.

    Also in its second outing, Ready or Not 2: Here I Come fell 54% to $4.1 million (I said $4.2 million). The underwhelming sequel sits at $16 million.

    And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

    March 27-29 Box Office Predictions

    Project Hail Mary touched down with fantastic results as it looks to easily repeat in 1st place as March closes out. Horror comedy They Will Kill You is the sole wide release newcomer and my detailed prediction post on it can be accessed here:

    They Will Kill You Box Office Prediction

    A best case scenario for They Will Kill You might be a second place finish in the low double digits or low teens. I’m going lower in the mid single digits for a third place start.

    Space set Hail Mary opened at the top end of its expected range for 2026’s highest premiere (more on that below). It scored the second largest debut for a non-franchise, non-sequel behind Oppenheimer and Ryan Gosling’s second best unveiling after Barbie. I suspect the sophomore dip will be in the mid 40s (similar to Oppenheimer).

    Hoppers should remain in the runner-up position as it heads into the Easter frame. The 4-5 spots should be close between Reminders of Him and Ready or Not 2: Here I Come after its meh debut.

    Here’s how I see the top 5 shaking out:

    1. Project Hail Mary

    Predicted Gross: $44.8 million

    2. Hoppers

    Predicted Gross: $12 million

    3. They Will Kill You

    Predicted Gross: $6.3 million

    4. Reminders of Him

    Predicted Gross: $4.3 million

    5. Ready or Not 2: Here I Come

    Predicted Gross: $4.2 million

    Box Office Results (March 20-22)

    Project Hail Mary reached for the stars and achieved a remarkable launch with $80.5 million, zooming beyond my $69 million prediction. With solid reviews and awards buzz, it turned out to be the event film that Amazon MGM was hoping for. The future looks bright as it faces no obstacles topping the charts again.

    Hoppers, after two weeks in 1st, was second with $17.8 million. That’s on target with my $18.4 million call as Disney/Pixar’s latest hit $120 million after three weeks.

    Indian action sequel Dhurandhar: The Revenge managed bragging rights by outgrossing the Ready or Not follow-up. With the second best per theater average, it made $10 million compared to my $7.8 million forecast with $14 million in the bank since its Wednesday bow.

    Ready or Not 2: Here I Come stumbled in fourth with $9 million, under my $11.2 million take. The horror sequel showed that most genre fans fell on the not ready side.

    Reminders of Him rounded out the top five with $8 million (I said $9.2 million) for a two-week tally of $33 million.

    Scream 7 was sixth with $4.3 million. I went with $5.3 million as the latest franchise entry’s four-week earnings rose to $114 million.

    And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

    March 20-22 Box Office Predictions

    Blogger’s Update (03/19): Upping my Project Hail Mary prediction from $59 million to $69 million and adding Dhurandhar the Revenge to the #5 spot at $7.8 million.

    Amazon MGM space adventure Project Hail Mary looks to dominate the box office this weekend while Searchlight searches for horror fans to boost Ready or Not 2: Here I Come. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:

    Project Hail Mary Box Office Prediction
    Ready or Not 2: Here I Come Box Office Prediction

    With high star reviews, Mary appears poised for an impressive showing out of the gate (it will need it with the reported $200M+ budget). My prediction has it reaching nearly $60 million as it hopes for a long run in the coming weeks.

    Barring a significant overperformance, Ready or Not 2: Here I Come should place third in low double digits behind the third frame of current champ Hoppers.

    The remainder of the top five should go to holdovers Reminders of Him in its sophomore frame (more on its solid performance below) and Scream 7.

    Here’s how I see it shaking out:

    1. Project Hail Mary

    Predicted Gross: $69 million

    2. Hoppers

    Predicted Gross: $18.4 million

    3. Ready or Not 2: Here I Come

    Predicted Gross: $11.2 million

    4. Reminders of Him

    Predicted Gross: $9.2 million

    5. Dhurandhar The Revenge

    Predicted Gross: $7.8 million

    6. Scream 7

    Predicted Gross: $5.3 million

    Box Office Results (March 13-15)

    As anticipated, Disney/Pixar’s Hoppers stayed in 1st place while newcomers managed to outdo my projections. Hoppers made off with $28.6 million, just ahead of my $27.2 million prediction. The two-week earnings jumped to $86 million.

    Reminders of Him, the romantic drama based on the Colleen Hoover novel, came in at the high end of expectations with $17.9 million in second. That’s well beyond my $10.4 million call. Look for it to drop in the high 40s in its second week.

    Low-budget Canadian horror pic Undertone was third with $9.3 million. Like Reminders, it started out at the top of its expected range and past my meager $4.9 million take. I do think it will drop out of the top 5 this weekend with a percentage dip in the high 50s or more.

    Scream 7 was fourth with $8.5 million, ahead of my $6.9 million forecast for a three-week tally of $106 million. It will match the $108 million take of its 2023 predecessor this week.

    Goat rounded out the top five with $4.6 million (I said $4.3 million) as the animated sports tale is nearly at nine digits with $90 million.

    Finally, The Bride! plummeted 70% in weekend #2 with just $2 million. I was more generous at $2.6 million. The two-week total for the WB flop is $11 million.

    And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…