Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes is poised to rule over the box office charts as it looks for a similar opening to its predecessors. We also have Not Another Church Movie, spoofing the Tyler Perry assembly line of features out. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:
I have Kingdom premiering similarly to 2011’s Rise of the Planet of the Apes and 2017’s War for the Planet of the Apes and even a smidge higher. I don’t foresee it reaching the heights of 2014’s Dawn of the Planet of the Apes at $72 million.
As for Church, I’m forecasting its number of parishioners gives it a mid single digits start and that should mean a third place showing. I do believe it has a shot at over performance, per my individual write-up. It could also flame out in the low single digits (this is a tough one).
There’s no question that The Fall Guy did not exceed expectations. In fact, the action comedy with Ryan Gosling and Emily Blunt came in at the lowest end of its anticipated range (more on that below). An A- Cinemascore could mean the sophomore drop won’t be too damaging, but I suspect high 40s to low 50s is where the dip will be.
Holdovers Challengers and the re-release of Star Wars: Episode 1 – The Phantom Menace should round out the top five. The latter’s first weekend back in theaters is probably front loaded. Therefore I see Phantom sliding from 2nd to 5th and Challengers only down one spot in fourth.
Here’s how I see it shaking out:
1. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
Predicted Gross: $55.2 million
2. The Fall Guy
Predicted Gross: $13.3 million
3. Not Another Church Movie
Predicted Gross: $4.9 million
4. Challengers
Predicted Gross: $4.7 million
5. Star Wars: Episode 1 – The Phantom Menance
Predicted Gross: $4 million
Box Office Results (May 3-5)
Despite the Barbenheimer pedigree (the pics that ruled summer 2023), The Fall Guy‘s performance was stunted at just $27.7 million. That’s well under my $38.3 million prediction and a letdown considering the reported $150 million price tag. For the past decade and a half, the MCU/Disney has owned the first weekend of May that marks the official start of cinematic summer. With that franchise sitting it out, audiences responded with indifference to the Gosling and Blunt show.
The Mouse Factory did bank some more cash for its Star Wars franchise. Marking its 25th anniversary and despite its checkered reputation, the re-release of The Phantom Menace took in $8.7 million for second place. It certainly didn’t hurt that Saturday fell on May 4th (a sacred date for many fans). That tops my $6.8 million forecast as the first episode is now at $483 million stateside in the last quarter century.
Challengers was third with $7.5 million, on target with my $7.9 million call. Zendaya’s sports drama eased an expected 49% to bring its two-week total to $29 million.
Poorly reviewed horror flick Tarot had a fourth place debut in the cards with $6.5 million, a bit over my $5.6 million projection. Look for this to fade fast as have other recent genre offerings.
Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire rounded out the top five with $4.5 million (I said $4.7 million) to bring its haul to $188 million after six weeks.
Finally, faith-based drama Unsung Hero fell considerably further in weekend #2 than I figured. In seventh place, its $2.9 million gross was well under my estimate of $5.4 million. The total is $13 million.
The summer box office season officially rises with Ryan Gosling and Emily Blunt in The Fall Guy as horror pic Tarot is also on deck. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:
Blogger’s Update (04/30): A couple hours after posting, per the comments below, I realized the large theatrical output that The Phantom Menance re-release is getting this weekend. My $6.8M projection puts it in third.
Loosely based on the 1980s action show, the supporting Oscar nominees from Barbenheimer should dominate the charts with The Fall Guy. This is the rare year in the past decade and a half that the MCU is sitting the first frame of May out. Fall won’t climb anywhere near as high as that franchise does to kick off the season. A best case scenario might be $50 million, but I’ve got it in the high 30s. This should leg out impressively over the coming weeks.
As for Tarot, a mid single digits take should place it fourth behind the second weekend of current champ Challengers and Phantom. Scary movies have struggled lately with recent genre titles failing to reach $10 million out of the box.
The sophomore drop for Challengers could have a somewhat wide range. A low to mid 40s decline would be considered a win. I suspect it might see a fall in the high 40s or low 50s region.
Another question mark is the percentage reduction for faith-based drama Unsung Hero in weekend #2. With an A+ Cinemascore grade, audiences are liking what they see and should be recommending to friends and, in this case, fellow parishioners. It might only witness a 25-35% decrease and has a decent shot at being fourth if Tarot comes in under my meager projection.
Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire should round out the high six and here’s how I see it playing out:
1. The Fall Guy
Predicted Gross: $38.3 million
2. Challengers
Predicted Gross: $7.9 million
3. Star Wars: Episode 1 – The Phantom Menace re-release
Predicted Gross: $6.8 million
4. Tarot
Predicted Gross: $5.6 million
5. Unsung Hero
Predicted Gross: $5.4 million
6. Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire
Predicted Gross: $4.7 million
Box Office Results (April 26-28)
Zendaya and company fought off all competitors as Challengers served up $15 million in its opening. The well-reviewed love triangle didn’t quite match my $16.2 million forecast. It ended up right in its anticipated range.
Unsung Hero was runner-up with a solid $7.7 million, besting my $5.9 million call. In its first weekend it made back its tiny $6 million price tag and, as mentioned, should hold up well in the near future.
Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire was third in weekend #5 at $7.2 million compared to my $6 million prediction. The overall take is a roaring $181 million.
Civil War plummeted from 1st to 4th with $7 million while still topping my $6.3 million projection. The three-week tally is $56 million.
Abigail rounded out the top five in its sophomore go-round at $5.2 million (I was close at $5.4 million). Total is $18 million.
Finally, The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare was sixth with $3.8 million. I was higher at $5.2 million as it dove a hefty 57% in its second weekend.
For decades in Hollywood, the first weekend of May (or occasionally last frame of April) has served as the official start of cinematic summer. Ryan Gosling’s character in The Fall Guy might have worked on some of those kickoff projects as his stuntman title character gets top billing here. Emily Blunt co-headlines the action comedy from director David Leitch (Atomic Blonde, Deadpool 2, Bullet Train). Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Winston Duke, Hannah Waddingham, and Stephanie Hsu provide supporting work.
This Universal project (loosely based on the 1980s TV show) finds the studio in an unfamiliar position. The summer season has begun in many recent years with a Disney/MCU blockbuster getting the financial ball rolling (last year it was Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3).
Obviously The Fall Guy won’t reach MCU figures, but it has a lot going for it. Gosling is hot off Barbie and a recent SNL hosting stint that generated lots of buzz. Blunt is coming off reigning BP winner Oppenheimer. The Barbenheimer duo’s teaming initially debuted at South by Southwest to loud buzz and solid reviews (the RT score is 90%).
I do believe a $50 million opening is achievable but unlikely. Low 40s to mid 40s is also reasonable while mid to high 30s might be where it lands. Regardless I think this will leg out impressively throughout May.
The Fall Guy opening weekend prediction: $38.3 million
For my Star Wars: Episode 1 – The Phantom Menace re-release prediction, click here:
And here we go! We are about three weeks removed from the 96th Academy Awards airing so that means it’s time to start speculating on the 97th. These are my initial glimpses at the four acting races, Director, and Picture and they will unfold on the blog over the next few days.
It begins with Supporting Actor. When I did my first picks on the competition in 2023, it yielded one nominee: Mark Ruffalo in Poor Things. Under the 10 other possibilities, I named the eventual winner Robert Downey Jr. for Oppenheimer as well as Robert De Niro in Killers of the Flower Moon. I did not identify Sterling K. Brown (American Fiction) or Ryan Gosling (Barbie) at the early juncture.
Let’s start with an obvious caveat… it’s early. Some movies listed are likely to be pushed back or simply not turn out as awards contenders. Actors listed here could end up being campaigned for in lead actor and vice versa when I get to Best Actor.
This premiere post previews a potential showdown of Succession actors Kieran Culkin and Jeremy Strong as well as possible spots for legends like Denzel Washington and Willem Dafoe. There’s also relative unknowns (Leigh Gill, Clarence Maclin) and a pair of Dune thespians (Javier Bardem, Austin Butler). This lineup is admittedly far less star-studded than 2023’s.
Here’s the first snapshot:
TODD’S FIRST OSCAR PREDICTIONS FOR SUPPORTING ACTOR AT THE 97TH ACADEMY AWARDS
Ryan Gosling (fresh off his third Oscar nom for Barbie) and Emily Blunt (just up for her first with Oppenheimer) lead the cast of The Fall Guy, slated for May 3rd. We are a month and a half away from that release, but it had a splashy debut at South by Southwest and the buzz is substantial. David Leitch (the man behind John Wick, Atomic Blonde, Deadpool 2, and Bullet Train) directs with a supporting cast including Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Winston Duke, Stephanie Hsu, and Hannah Waddingham.
Based on the 1980s action TV series starring Lee Majors, Gosling plays a stunt man once again after portraying the same profession in The Place Beyond the Pines and Drive. Critics are calling it a lovingly crafted and quite funny and romantic homage to the cinematic workers who put themselves in danger for our entertainment. It stands at 92% on Rotten Tomatoes.
While we wait for the Academy to develop a category honoring stunt performers (like SAG does), The Fall Guy‘s best and perhaps only hope at recognition is in tech races like Sound (feasible) and Visual Effects (maybe more of a reach). Assuming Universal campaigns for it in Musical/Comedy at the Golden Globes, its luck could be better with potential nods in Film, Actor, and Actress. And, yes, its chances for inclusion in the SAG Stunt Ensemble race seems like a no brainer. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
After a year plus of speculation, the 96th Academy Awards have finally happened. As anticipated, Oppenheimer had a solid night by winning over half of its nominations with 7 trophies out of 13 nods. It emerged triumphant in the top of the line races where it was expected to do so: Picture, Director (Christopher Nolan), Actor (Cillian Murphy), and Supporting Actor (Robert Downey Jr.). **Fun fact: RDJ is the first former SNL cast member to win an Oscar. Oppenheimer also took the prizes for Cinematography, Film Editing, and Original Score. I correctly called those victories for the epic biopic correctly.
The real question of the night was what other movie would emerge as having a good night with the Academy. That answer turned out to be Poor Things. I only had Yorgos Lanthimos’s multi-genre experiencing generating one Oscar. It received four. I rightly had it pegged for Production Design. Yet it also took Makeup & Hairstyling over my pick of Maestro and Costume Design over my favored Barbie.
And then… Emma Stone took to the podium for her second Academy Award in 7 years over Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon), who had seemed to grab the momentum after her SAG statue. It turned out to be the BAFTAs (where Stone won) that had the closest correlations with tonight’s show. Poor Things had a rich bounty that was better than my projections and pretty much everyone else’s.
The Zone of Interest, as widely projected, is the International Feature Film. In another slight surprise, it also was named for Best Sound over Oppenheimer (got that wrong).
Oppenheimer, Poor Things, and Zone were the only films with multiple golden pickups. Other BP nominees that nabbed a win were The Holdovers where Da’Vine Randolph completed her sweep in Supporting Actress and Anatomy of a Fall in Original Screenplay and American Fiction in Adapted Screenplay (got those right). Same goes for Barbie‘s sole trophy in Original Song with “What Was I Made For?” by Billie Eilish over “I’m Just Ken” (though Ryan Gosling’s performance of the tune was perhaps the evening’s highlight).
I correctly called 20 Days in Mariupol for Documentary Feature while The Boy and the Heron is Animated Feature over Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (I went with Spidey). Another wrong projection: The Creator didn’t take Visual Effects as that went to Godzilla Minus One.
All in all, I went 14 for 20. I will note that in the six races I missed, my runners-up ended up with each one. And in perhaps the biggest shocker of the night, the ceremony actually wrapped up early and that was with host Jimmy Kimmel (who’s good at this assignment) stretching in the home stretch.
It’s been a blast trying to figure out the 96th Academy Awards! Now onto the 97th…
FINAL WIN TALLY
7 Wins
Oppenheimer
4 Wins
Poor Things
2 Wins
The Zone of Interest
1 Win
American Fiction, Anatomy of a Fall, Barbie, The Boy and the Heron, Godzilla Minus One, The Holdovers, 20 Days in Mariupol
After scores of Oscar Prediction posts, 35 Case Of write-ups making the argument for and against winners in BP, Director, and the four acting derbies, and numerous articles covering the key precursors – we have arrived at my final winner predictions for the 96th Academy Awards. The ceremony airs Sunday night with Jimmy Kimmel back hosting (remember: it starts an hour earlier than normal at 7PM EST).
Truth be told, some of the major races come with little to zero suspense and you’ll read about that below. On the other hand, there are a handful of competitions that are quite unpredictable with the most visible being Best Actress.
As I do each year, I’ll give you the nominees, brief analysis, and a winner and runner-up pick for all the feature-length categories. Let’s get to it!
BEST PICTURE
Nominees: American Fiction, Anatomy of a Fall, Barbie, The Holdovers, Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Past Lives, Poor Things, The Zone of Interest
Let’s keep this simple. Oppenheimer is the easiest BP selection to predict in quite some time and there’s been some obvious ones recently (including Everything Everywhere All at Once last year). It has taken all the precursors it needs to including the Globes, BAFTA, SAG and Critics Choice. Frankly, the more difficult call is runner-up (and it doesn’t really matter). I’ll go with Poor Things since it had the second most noms and showed up in all the major races where it was expected to contend.
Prediction: Oppenheimer
Runner-Up: Poor Things
BEST DIRECTOR
Nominees: Jonathan Glazer (The Zone of Interest), Yorgos Lanthimos (Poor Things), Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer), Martin Scorsese (Killers of the Flower Moon), Justine Triet (Anatomy of a Fall)
You could literally copy and paste everything about Picture for Director with the man who made Oppenheimer and throw in the fact that he took DGA as well. Another no brainer.
Prediction: Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
Runner-Up: Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (I guess)
BEST ACTRESS
Nominees: Annette Bening (Nyad), Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon), Sandra Hüller (Anatomy of a Fall), Carey Mulligan (Maestro), Emma Stone (Poor Things)
And now it gets complicated. Of the four acting races, this is by far the hardest one. Why? It appears to be a coin flip between Stone and Gladstone. They split the Golden Globes as anticipated. Stone received BAFTA and Critics Choice and appeared to be out front. And then Gladstone swooped in for SAG. That recency factor could serve as a boost. Additionally, Gladstone’s victory would be historic. For Stone, it would be her second statue in seven years after her La La Land prize. Stone could absolutely make the podium trip and it wouldn’t be unexpected at all. Yet for the reasons above…
Prediction: Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
Runner-Up: Emma Stone, Poor Things
BEST ACTOR
Nominees: Bradley Cooper (Maestro), Colman Domingo (Rustin), Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers), Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer), Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction)
Best Actor also looked like a pick ’em for a bit between Murphy and Giamatti. They split the Globes and then Giamatti was your Critics Choice choice. Murphy, however, regained momentum with BAFTA and SAG. A Giamatti win could occur, but it seems unlikelier now.
Prediction: Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
Runner-Up: Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Nominees: Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer), Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple), America Ferrera (Barbie), Jodie Foster (Nyad), Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers)
There was some thought that this race could become interesting at some point with an Emily Blunt upset at SAG or maybe even Brooks scoring a shocking victory. It never happened and Randolph has emerged everywhere. This is one of the easiest categories to call.
Prediction: Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers
Runner-Up: Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Nominees: Sterling K. Brown (American Fiction), Robert De Niro (Killers of the Flower Moon), Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer), Ryan Gosling (Barbie), Mark Ruffalo (Poor Things)
This quintet of performers all come from BP nominees, but the winner will be from the BP recipient. Downey Jr. has swept this season thus far and that’ll continue.
Prediction: Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer
Runner-Up: Ryan Gosling, Barbie
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Nominees: Anatomy of a Fall, The Holdovers, Maestro, May December, Past Lives
You’ll notice a common theme with both Screenplay derbies. It looked like each would difficult to figure out, but precursors have had consistency. In Original, that’s been Anatomy of a Fall and this should mark its sole Oscar since France inexplicably didn’t make it their International Feature Film submission.
Prediction: Anatomy of a Fall
Runner-Up: The Holdovers
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Nominees: American Fiction, Barbie, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, The Zone of Interest
There is a little more intrigue here with Barbie in the mix and a potential Oppenheimer juggernaut being rewarded even here. That said, Fiction kept racking up precursors and I can’t bet against it for its solo prize.
Prediction: American Fiction
Runner-Up: Oppenheimer
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM
Nominees: Io Capitano, Perfect Days, Society of the Snow, The Teachers’ Lounge, The Zone of Interest
As mentioned, with Anatomy left out, this becomes easy. Zone is the only BP nominee listed in this group.
Prediction: The Zone of Interest
Runner-Up: Society of the Snow
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Nominees: The Boy and the Heron, Elemental, Nimona, Robot Dreams, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
We’ve got real drama here as Heron took the Globe and BAFTA while Spidey is the Annie and Critics Choice selection. I’m leaning toward the latter, but Heron could fly away with the minor upset.
Prediction: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Runner-Up: The Boy and the Heron
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Nominees: Bobi Wine: The People’s President, The Eternal Memory, Four Daughters, To Kill a Tiger, 20 Days in Mariupol
Doc Feature can be a head scratcher from time to time and I’m tempted to go with Daughters or even something else to shake it up. Mariupol, though, has collected the bulk of notable precursors. It’s the safe pick.
Prediction: 20 Days in Mariupol
Runner-Up: Four Daughters
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Nominees: El Conde, Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Poor Things
Sometimes brevity is appreciated. There are some of these tech races where Oppenheimer is way out front. This would be one.
Prediction: Oppenheimer
Runner-Up: Poor Things
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Nominees: Barbie, Killers of the Flower Moon, Napoleon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things
Here’s one where Oppenheimer isn’t really expected to win. Instead, like Production Design, this should be between Barbie and Poor Things and it’s 50/50 in my view. I have a strange feeling that Barbie will win more than 1 Oscar (there’s one coming below where it’s basically a slam dunk). This could mark that second trophy.
Prediction: Barbie
Runner-Up: Poor Things
BEST FILM EDITING
Nominees: Anatomy of a Fall, The Holdovers, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things
A very easy call for Oppenheimer.
Prediction: Oppenheimer
Runner-Up: Anatomy of a Fall
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Nominees: Golda, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, Society of the Snow
Poor Things is a genuine threat, but I’ll say this is Maestro‘s only victory.
Prediction: Maestro
Runner-Up: Poor Things
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Nominees: American Fiction, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things
It is Oppenheimer‘s destiny to take this one.
Prediction: Oppenheimer
Runner-Up: Killers of the Flower Moon
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Nominees: “The Fire Inside” from Flamin’ Hot; “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie; “It Never Went Away” from American Symphony; “Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People)” from Killers of the Flower Moon; “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie
Here’s where Barbie is the safe pick with either tune. “Ken” nabbed a Critics Choice prize, but Billie Eilish’s ballad scored at the Globes and Grammys.
Prediction: “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie
Runner-Up: “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Nominees: Barbie, Killers of the Flower Moon, Napoleon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things
Per Costume Design, a showdown between Barbie and Bella of Poor Things. Unlike Costume Design, my coin is flipped to Poor Things for what I’m projecting is its only Academy Award.
Prediction: Poor Things
Runner-Up: Barbie
BEST SOUND
Nominees: The Creator, Maestro, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning, Oppenheimer, The Zone of Interest
This looked like a no thinking pick for Oppenheimer until Zone managed the BAFTA. I could see that repeating, but I’m not confident enough to bet against Oppenheimer.
Prediction: Oppenheimer
Runner-Up: The Zone of Interst
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Nominees: The Creator, Godzilla Minus One, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning, Napoleon
Along with Actress, this is where I’ve struggled the most. VE is kinda wild this year with Oppenheimer not listed (it won Critics Choice), Dune: Part Two having been pushed to 2024, and Poor Things (which won BAFTA) not in the quintet. So… your guess is as good as mine. I’m really tempted to go with Godzilla. Guardians and Napoleon are possible (I really don’t see Mission as the pick). Yet I’ll say The Creator edges them out as it just took some Visual Effects Society awards. Confidence level? Nada.
Prediction: The Creator
Runner-Up: Godzilla Minus One
That means I’m speculating that every BP nominee except Past Lives will win an Oscar… and that Barbie is the only other picture with more than one trophy other than Oppenheimer.
Here’s the projected breakdown for victories:
8 Wins
Oppenheimer
2 Wins
Barbie
1 Win
American Fiction, Anatomy of a Fall, The Creator, The Holdovers, Killers of the Flower Moon,Maestro, Poor Things, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, 20 Days in Mariupol, The Zone of Interest
And there you have it! I’ll have a recap up Sunday evening with how I did and general takeaways…
As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.
It began with the ten BP contenders and now it alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five big races. Today we arrive at our fourth performer in Best Supporting Actor and that’s Ryan Gosling in Barbie. Let’s get to it!
Previous Oscar Acting Nominations:
Half Nelson (Actor, 2006); La La Land (Actor, 2016)
The Case for Ryan Gosling:
For his third nomination and first in the supporting field, Gosling has been mentioned everywhere that counts (Globes, SAG, BAFTA, Critics Choice). His show stopping performance of “I’m Just Ken” was a highlight of the year’s biggest blockbuster.
The Case Against Ryan Gosling:
He’s lost all of those precursors to Robert Downey Jr. in Oppenheimer. It’s also rare for comedic performances to get victories in any of the acting derbies. Barbie underperformed a tad with omissions for Margot Robbie and director Greta Gerwig (though America Ferrera made the cut).
The Verdict:
I’m just saying Downey Jr. is looking solid for gold. Gosling might be runner-up, but distantly.
My Case Of posts will continue with Martin Scorsese’s direction in Killers of the Flower Moon…
The 30th SAG Awards air this Saturday and they are rightly viewed as an often reliable barometer for the Oscars, especially in the acting derbies. The biggest prize honors the strongest ensemble and that’s a less reliable match with Best Picture. Over the past 10 ceremonies, the correlation has been 5 out of 10 and that includes the last two shows with CODA and Everything Everywhere All at Once.
On the other hand, it was four for four in Actress, Actor, and the supporting competitions last year. That also holds true for 2021.
Sunday’s program could solidify frontrunner statuses for Actress/Actor hopefuls and further potential sweeps for the supporting players. Let’s walk through all 6 categories with a winner and runner-up selection.
Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture
Nominees: American Fiction, Barbie, The Color Purple, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer
You have to go back to the second SAG Awards and The Birdcage to find a nominee that wasn’t an Oscar BP nominee so you can cross The Color Purple out immediately. My hunch is this comes down to Barbenheimer. We know that Oppenheimer is the overwhelming favorite for the Academy’s BP. However, Barbie could legitimately pick this up. This is a close call and I wouldn’t totally rule out Fiction. Yet the fact is that Oppenheimer might be strong enough to nab this one in addition to all the other precursors.
Predicted Winner: Oppenheimer
Runner-Up: Barbie
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role
Nominees: Annette Bening (Nyad), Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon), Carey Mulligan (Maestro), Margot Robbie (Barbie), Emma Stone (Poor Things)
This is where Gladstone could make the Oscar race a nail biter. Stone has taken Critics Choice and BAFTA. If she gets the victory at SAG, she’ll become the easy favorite. Arguably a coin flip, but I’m sensing Stone gets it.
Predicted Winner: Emma Stone, Poor Things
Runner-Up: Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role
Nominees: Bradley Cooper (Maestro), Colman Domingo (Rustin), Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers), Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer), Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction)
Read what I said about Female Actor in a Leading Role. In this race, Cillian Murphy is Emma Stone. Paul Giamatti is Lily Gladstone (except Giamatti took Critics Choice). Murphy could achieve frontrunner status or Giamatti could make it a jump ball. I’m projecting the latter.
Predicted Winner: Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers
Runner-Up: Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role
Randolph has been the victor everywhere important and I don’t see SAG interrupting her sweep.
Predicted Winner: Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers
Runner-Up: Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
Nominees: Sterling K. Brown (American Fiction), Willem Dafoe (Poor Things), Robert De Niro (Killers of the Flower Moon), Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer), Ryan Gosling (Barbie)
Read what I said about Female Actor in a Supporting Role. Robert Downey Jr. is Da’Vine Joy Randolph.
Predicted Winner: Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer
Runner-Up: Ryan Gosling, Barbie
Outstanding Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture
Nominees: Barbie, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, John Wick: Chapter 4, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning
The sequel heavy lineup marks the first nomination for a John Wick pic. Some prognosticators are going with it, but I’m forecasting the Mission series (in its third try) pulls through.
Predicted Winner: Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning
As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.
It began with the ten BP contenders and now it alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five big races. Today we arrive at our third performer in Best Supporting Actor and that’s Robert Downey Jr. in Oppenheimer. Let’s get to it!
It could be considered the capper for one of the most remarkable comeback stories in Hollywood history. In the mid 90s, Downey Jr.’s career appeared over due to drug abuse and legal woes. By 2008, he was starting run as star of the biggest franchise of all time with the MCU and multiple appearances as Tony Stark in the Iron Man and Avengers series. His role as the scheming AEC Chairman Lewis Strauss in Christopher Nolan’s epic biopic has swept the season thus far at the Globes, Critics Choice, and BAFTA. SAG is likely to follow suit next weekend. This could be seen as a career achievement prize and his peers are probably eager to give it to him (similar to Jamie Lee Curtis last year in Everything Everywhere All at Once).
The Case Against Robert Downey Jr.:
Frankly, it’s difficult to come up with one. Maybe the voters will look at Supporting Actor as a place to honor Barbie and give it to Ryan Gosling. The same logic could apply to Mark Ruffalo in Poor Things or Robert De Niro in Killers of the Flower Moon.
The Verdict:
At this point, anything other than a Downey Jr. victory would be a significant upset.
My Case Of posts will continue with the direction of Christopher Nolan in Oppenheimer…
All My Life... I Wanted To Be A Blogster 