It was an evening in which the Academy was generous with their selections – so much so that all eight Best Picture nominees took at least one gold statue. It was also a night where many of the viewers (including me) may have pondered, “Maybe we don’t need a host after all…”
As far as the Oscars go, the ceremony moved rather briskly with a focus on the categories and minimal filler. The telecast saved the surprises for the end portion and they were fairly significant.
I went 14 for 21 in my picks. The big winner would have to be GreenBook, which took Best Picture, Supporting Actor (Mahershala Ali), and Original Screenplay. Its win in the top race was a bit unexpected as Roma had front-runner status. Alfonso Cuaron did win for his direction and the Mexican drama emerged victorious as Foreign Language Film and for its Cinematography.
The acting races went as planned until the last one. Rami Malek (BohemianRhapsody), Regina King (IfBealeStreetCouldTalk), and Ali won. Actress was another story as Glenn Close (TheWife), after taking multiple precursors, lost to Olivia Colman’s work in TheFavourite. Her speech was probably the funniest and most genuine of the evening.
It was a good night all around for Rhapsody, which also took Editing and both Sound races. Same for BlackPanther, which was honored for Production Design, Costume Design, and Score.
Other winners:
Adapted Screenplay – BlacKkKlansman, marking Spike Lee’s first competitive Oscar victory
As mentioned, I didn’t miss having a host one bit, but Melissa McCarthy would be fine by me if she accepted next year.
In an awards show where musical performances can often be forgettable, the duet between Bradley Cooper and Lady Gaga was fantastic. The Queen opening was a pleasure to witness as well.
2018 definitely proved itself to be a year where voters had no clear favorite to sweep anything. The wealth was spread.
And that’s my take! Keep an eye on this here blog for many posts to come guesstimating on the next Oscars!
We’ve had months of predictions and endless speculation on this blog about the 2018 Oscars and now it’s come to this. On Sunday, the 91st edition of the Academy Awards will air with your host…
As you’ve likely read, there actually is no emcee for this year’s ceremony. I’m not here to write about that. I’m here to make my final picks for the winners! Let’s break down each race one by one, shall we? And, of course, I’ll have a piece up Sunday night with my thoughts on how it all went down.
Analysis: First things first. It’s extremely rare that the winner here doesn’t have its director nominated. Therefore, two films that might have served as the biggest competition to Roma could now be seen as longer shots: AStarIsBorn and GreenBook. You could correctly point out that Argo achieved a victory just six years ago without Ben Affleck getting an individual nod. However, it had been 23 years prior to that (DrivingMissDaisy) when it had occurred previously. BlacKkKlansman and TheFavourite are upset possibilities, but the smart money is on Alfonso Cuaron’s Netflix Mexican drama and it would mark the streaming service’s first win in the big race.
Predicted Winner: Roma
BestDirector
Nominees: Alfonso Cuaron (Roma), Yorgos Lanthimos (TheFavourite), Spike Lee (BlacKkKlansman), Adam McKay (Vice), Pawel Pawlikowski (ColdWar)
Analysis: I feel even more confident that Cuaron will take the gold here, even if Roma somehow comes up short in Picture. He’s run the table on precursors, including the DGA prize. It would be his second win in five years, after winning for 2013’s Gravity.
Predicted Winner: Cuaron
BestActor
Nominees: Christian Bale (Vice), Bradley Cooper (AStarIsBorn), Willem Dafoe (AtEternity’sGate), Rami Malek (BohemianRhapsody), Viggo Mortensen (GreenBook)
Analysis: This is a tough one as Malek and Bale have split a number of precursors. With the SAG Awards, I deemed it a coin flip and picked Malek. I was right. At the Golden Globes, they both won due to category splits. I won’t be surprised to see either win, but my 50/50 feeling going with Malek worked before
Predicted Winner: Malek
BestActress
Nominees: Yalitza Aparicio (Roma), Glenn Close (TheWife), Olivia Colman (TheFavourite), Lady Gaga (AStarIsBorn), Melissa McCarthy (CanYouEverForgiveMe?)
Analysis: Aparicio and McCarthy should be honored to be nominated. Colman and Gaga are threats, but Close has fared best in previous ceremonies and there’s the fact that she’s a highly respected performer who’s yet to win despite multiple nods.
Predicted Winner: Close
BestSupportingActor
Nominees: Mahershala Ali (GreenBook), Adam Driver (BlacKkKlansman), Sam Elliot (AStarIsBorn), Richard E. Grant (CanYouEverForgiveMe?), Sam Rockwell (Vice)
Analysis: This category features the last two Oscar winners as Ali won in 2016 for Moonlight and Rockwell took it last year for ThreeBillboardsOutsideEbbing, Missouri. They have far different chances to become two-time victors. Ali is the front-runner. Supporting Actor has seen upsets, but Ali looks strong.
Predicted Winner: Ali
BestSupportingActress
Nominees: Amy Adams (Vice), Marina de Tavira (Roma), Regina King (IfBealeStreetCouldTalk), Emma Stone (TheFavourite), Rachel Weisz (TheFavourite)
Analysis: Even though King didn’t get a SAG nod, they bestowed their award to Emily Blunt for AQuietPlace and she’s not even nominated. An Adams name call is feasible since she’s never won, but King will probably be crowned Sunday evening.
Analysis: This one is legitimately difficult and I think you can make a case for all of them. Roma is a distinct possibility as the Picture favorite and GreenBook could make a showing. Yet my slight favorite here is TheFavourite.
Analysis: This could be interesting. As revealed above, Roma is my Picture pick. So it’s automatic that it wins here right? Not so fast. ColdWar could get the consolation prize and I feel that’s even more possible since it nabbed a surprise nod for director Pawel Pawlikowski. I’m tempted to pick it, but I’ll say Roma manages the double win. However, if you wish to get creative in your office pool, this could be the race to do it.
Analysis: Pixar has dominated this field for years. In most years, it would be risky to bet against them – therefore Incredibles2. This might be the year to do it as Spider–Man arrived late in the year, swung the momentum, and swept the precursors.
Analysis: One of the biggest shockers when nominations came out was the omission of Mr. Rogers doc Won’tYouBeMyNeighbor?. I likely would’ve picked it to win had it been nominated. Now I believe this is between Solo and RBG. Reverence for the latter could swing it that way, but I’ll give a small edge to Solo.
Analysis: BohemianRhapsody won the significant precursor for its branch and TheFavourite or BlacKkKlansman could factor in as well. My gut says Vice may get this one, however.
Analysis: Even though Star didn’t get in the other Sound race, Mixing seems like where it could be picked. I wouldn’t count out FirstMan, but I’ll guess Star wins here.
Analysis: It was a bit surprising that BlackPanther missed the cut here. Its MCU counterpart Infinity is possible, but I’ll say this is the sole victory for FirstMan.
Analysis: Another chance for Panther lies here, but I’m going with a coin flip between BlacKkKlansman and BealeStreet.
Predicted Winner: IfBealeStreetCouldTalk
BestOriginalSong
Nominees: “All the Stars” from BlackPanther, “I’ll Fight” from RBG, “The Place Where Lost Things Go” from MaryPoppinsReturns, “Shallow” from AStarIsBorn, “When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings” from TheBalladofBusterScruggs
Analysis: My last race is the easiest. “Shallow” is the massive favorite here.
Predicted Winner: “Shallow” fromAStarIsBorn
And there you have it. Enjoy the show Sunday night!
Our British friends had their version of the Oscars today with the BAFTA Awards. The ceremony has a checkered history with its American counterpart in matching wins, particularly with Best Picture.
In this decade, the BAFTA and Oscar victor for the top prize matched from 2010-2013. However, the shows have honored different recipients for the last four years. The Picture winner tonight is Alfonso Cuarón’s Mexican drama Roma. Given the recent BAFTA history, perhaps that isn’t a great sign for its Academy prospects. Yet it’s performed extremely well with other precursors and likely remains the front-runner for that other awards program in two weeks. Cuarón also took Best Director and the BAFTA/Oscar for that race has lined up for the previous four years.
Rami Malek won Best Actor for BohemianRhapsody and that could have him sitting well for Oscar as the BAFTA winner has matched Oscar seven out of eight years this decade. I give him an edge over Christian Bale in Vice.
That seven for eight statistic also applies to Best Actress and things got a little interesting today as Olivia Colman (TheFavourite) took the trophy instead of Glenn Close (TheWife) and Lady Gaga (AStarIsBorn). I still think Close is the Academy’s favorite, but Colman is making a potential run.
The supporting races furthered a strong front-runner and gave another a first win. Mahershala Ali (GreenBook) has made it a clean sweep in Supporting Actor in the precursors and he’s the heavy expected Oscar winner. For Supporting Actress, Regina King (IfBealeStreetCouldTalk) wasn’t nominated here, but remains a slight favorite two Sunday’s from now. BAFTA’s favorite, however, was from TheFavourite and it was Rachel Weisz picking up her first significant trophy.
Keep an eye on the blog for my final predictions for the Oscars!
The wealth was spread this evening at the 25th Annual Screen Actors Guild Awards as It provided more clues to how Oscar voters may choose their winners in February. I went 4 for 5 in my predictions and I’m pretty pleased with that because some of these races were quite unpredictable.
The miss was indeed a surprise as Emily Blunt took Supporting Actress for her work in AQuietPlace. She wasn’t even nominated for an Oscar and the exclusion of Regina King (IfBealeStreetCouldTalk) here was significant. Ironically, the Blunt victory over the Academy nominated Amy Adams in Vice or Emma Stone and Rachel Weisz (TheFavourite) may give King a boost come Oscar time.
As for the other acting categories, it was another trophy for Mahershala Ali in GreenBook for Supporting Actor as he continues to solidify his status as the front-runner. Same goes for Glenn Close in TheWife in lead actress. In lead actor, that’s a bit murkier as Rami Malek took the Actor for BohemianRhapsody. I still consider the Oscar race close between him and Christian Bale in Vice. Bradley Cooper’s chances for AStarisBorn have dimmed even more.
It was a bad night for that picture as it went 0 for 4. The top Ensemble race went to the sprawling cast of BlackPanther. What does that do for its Oscar chances? Truth be told, I think not much as the victor here often doesn’t match the Academy’s Best Picture recipient.
There’s your recap, folks! Now it’s onto more speculation for Oscar…
The 25th Annual Screen Actors Guild Award air tomorrow evening and they could shed some light on which performers are looking more solid for the Oscar in a few weeks. Let’s break down the top races with my winner predictions, shall we?
OutstandingPerformancebyaCastinaMotionPicture
The Nominees: BlackPanther, BlacKkKlansman, BohemianRhapsody, CrazyRichAsians, AStarisBorn
Analysis: It’s important to note that the SAG ceremony honors casts and not the “Best Picture” like other shows. This is about the ensemble. AStarisBorn is really concentrated on three performances (Bradley Cooper, Lady Gaga, Sam Elliot) and they’re all up for their individual races, where they all have a shot of winning. I believe it’s entirely possible, however, that the trio also all lose and this could be a considerable consolation prize. The other four films have more sprawling casts. That’s especially true for BlackPanther and I’ll say the voters ultimately reward in a different category to project.
Winner Prediction: BlackPanther
OutstandingPerformancebyaMaleActorinaLeadingRole
The Nominees: Christian Bale (Vice), Bradley Cooper (AStarisBorn), Rami Malek (BohemianRhapsody), Viggo Mortensen (GreenBook), John David Washington (BlacKkKlansman)
Analysis: As mentioned, Cooper is a possibility. Yet he’s come up empty in other precursors. This could come down to the two Golden Globe recipients for their categories – Bale and Malek. I think it’s a coin flip to be honest. I’ll give the latter a razor-thin edge.
The Nominees: Emily Blunt (MaryPoppinsReturns), Glenn Close (TheWife), Olivia Colman (TheFavourite), Lady Gaga (AStarisBorn), Melissa McCarthy (CanYouEverForgiveMe?)
Analysis: Gaga is the only actress whose picture is also nominated. Her tie with Glenn Close at the Critics Choice Awards made things even murkier. Colman is a possibility here, but I’ll say this branch of actors give it to Close after decades of memorable performances.
The Nominees: Mahershala Ali (GreenBook), Timothee Chalamet (BeautifulBoy), Adam Driver (BlacKkKlansman), Sam Elliot (AStarisBorn), Richard E. Grant (CanYouEverForgiveMe?)
Analysis: I wouldn’t count out Elliot, but Ali appears to be the front-runner in all these shows. I think his streak continues.
The Nominees: Amy Adams (Vice), Emily Blunt (AQuietPlace), Margot Robbie (MaryQueenofScots), Emma Stone (TheFavourite), Rachel Weisz (TheFavourite)
Analysis: A fascinating race as Oscar favorite Regina King’s work in IfBealeStreetCouldTalk was surprisingly snubbed. Blunt is a double nominee, but stands little chance of emerging victorious in either spot. TheFavourite ladies could split votes. Robbie didn’t land an Oscar nod and is a long shot. That leaves Adams, who could be a double winner tomorrow with her work in HBO’s SharpObjects.
Winner Prediction: Adams
And there you have it! I’ll have a recap up after the program airs!
The eyes of Oscar prognosticators were on the Producers Guild of America (PGA) Awards and for good reason. In this decade, the Best Picture Award has matched the Academy’s 6 out of 8 times (there’s a little fudging here because in 2013 there was a tie between Oscar recipient 12YearsaSlave and Gravity). The non matches occurred in 2015 when the PGA selected TheBigShort over Spotlight and the following year with LaLaLand winning and not Moonlight.
Two scenarios could have changed the Oscar landscape in a significant way. A victory for Roma (coming off its Critics Choice honor) could have solidified standing as a front-runner. If AStarIsBorn took the top prize, it would have marked a much-needed win after some high-profile precursor snubs.
Neither scenario happened as Peter Farrelly’s GreenBook was named. This is a surprise and it opens up an already uncertain race for Best Picture at the big dance. It certainly lessens GreenBook winning the Oscar being seen as an upset. It’s a real contender along with Roma and Star.
Tonight’s ceremony also gave yet another animation award for Spider–Man: IntotheSpider–Verse. Coupled with its Globes and Critics wins, it now appears Spidey is the Academy favorite over Incredibles2.
Bottom line: the PGA made the Oscars a bit murkier. We got ourselves a race.
Well, folks, this is it. After months of weekly predictions and dozens of Oscar Watch posts, it’s time for my final Oscar picks in each feature film category (with an alternate listed as well). Nominations will be out Tuesday morning. I’ve used thousands of words to analyze the 2018 race and here’s the ones that count.
I’ll have analysis up Tuesday evening with how I did. Here we go!
Picture
AStarIsBorn
BlacKkKlansman
BlackPanther
BohemianRhapsody
TheFavourite
GreenBook
IfBealeStreetCouldTalk
Roma
Vice
Alternate – FirstMan
Director
Bradley Cooper, AStarIsBorn
Alfonso Cuaron, Roma
Peter Farrelly, GreenBook
Yorgos Lanthimos, TheFavourite
Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman
Alternate – Adam McKay, Vice
Actor
Christian Bale, Vice
Bradley Cooper, AStarIsBorn
Ethan Hawke, FirstReformed
Rami Malek, BohemianRhapsody
Viggo Mortensen, GreenBook
Alternate – John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman
Actress
Yalitza Aparicio, Roma
Glenn Close, TheWife
Olivia Colman, TheFavourite
Lady Gaga, AStarIsBorn
Melissa McCarthy, CanYouEverForgiveMe?
Alternate – Emily Blunt, MaryPoppinsReturns
SupportingActor
Mahershala Ali, GreenBook
Timothee Chalamet, BeautifulBoy
Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman
Sam Elliot, AStarIsBorn
Richard E. Grant, CanYouEverForgiveMe?
Alternate – Sam Rockwell, Vice
SupportingActress
Amy Adams, Vice
Claire Foy, FirstMan
Regina King, IfBealeStreetCouldTalk
Emma Stone, TheFavourite
Rachel Weisz, TheFavourite
Alternate – Marina de Tavira, Roma
AdaptedScreenplay
AStarIsBorn
BlacKkKlansman
BlackPanther
CanYouEverForgiveMe?
IfBealeStreetCouldTalk
Alternate – FirstMan
OriginalScreenplay
TheFavourite
FirstReformed
GreenBook
Roma
Vice
Alternate – EighthGrade
ForeignLanguageFilm
Burning
Capernaum
ColdWar
Roma
Shoplifters
Alternate – NeverLookAway
AnimatedFeature
Incredibles2
IsleofDogs
Mirai
RalphBreakstheInternet
Spider–Man: IntotheSpider–Verse
Alternate – EarlyMan
DocumentaryFeature
FreeSolo
MindingtheGap
RBG
ThreeIdenticalStrangers
Won’tYouBeMyNeighbor?
Alternate – Shirkers
FilmEditing
AStarIsBorn
TheFavourite
FirstMan
Roma
Vice
Alternate – BlackPanther
Cinematography
ColdWar
TheFavourite
FirstMan
IfBealeStreetCouldTalk
Roma
Alternate – AStarIsBorn
ProductionDesign
BlackPanther
CrazyRichAsians
TheFavourite
MaryPoppinsReturns
Roma
Alternate – FirstMan
CostumeDesign
BlackPanther
BohemianRhapsody
TheFavourite
MaryPoppinsReturns
MaryQueenofScots
Alternate – CrazyRichAsians
MakeupandHairstyling
BlackPanther
Border
Vice
Alternate – MaryQueenofScots
SoundEditing
AQuietPlace
AStarIsBorn
BlackPanther
FirstMan
Roma
Alternate – BohemianRhapsody
SoundMixing
AQuietPlace
AStarIsBorn
BohemianRhapsody
FirstMan
Roma
Alternate – MaryPoppinsReturns
VisualEffects
Avengers: InfinityWar
BlackPanther
FirstMan
MaryPoppinsReturns
ReadyPlayerOne
Alternate – Solo: AStarWarsStory
Score
BlacKkKlansman
BlackPanther
FirstMan
IfBealeStreetCouldTalk
MaryPoppinsReturns
Alternate – IsleofDogs
Song
“All the Stars” from BlackPanther
“Girl in the Movies” from Dumplin
“I’ll Fight” from RBG
”Shallow” from AStarIsBorn
“Trip a Little Light Fantastic” from MaryPoppinsReturns
Alternate – “The Place Where Lost Things Go” from MaryPoppinsReturns
And my picks equate to the following movies getting these numbers in terms of nods:
