50 years after parlaying its “little movie that could” status to a Best Picture Oscar victory over heavyweights like All the President’s Men, Network, and Taxi Driver, a movie about its making looks to punch its own ticket with awards voters. Peter Farrelley’s I Play Rocky has debuted at the Toronto Film Festival prior to a November release with Anthony Ippolito as Rocky star and writer Sylvester Stallone. Costars include AnnaSophia Robb, Toby Kebbell, P.J. Byrne, Stephan James, Jay Duplass, Tracy Letts, and Matt Dillon.
Word-of-mouth from our northern neighbor indicates that this Rocky recounting, like the source material, is quite the crowdpleaser. Critics are more mixed. The early RT score is 60%. Eight years ago, Farrelly’s Green Book premiered in Toronto, ended up taking the coveted audience prize, and eventually took home Best Picture at the 91st Academy Awards. It is a BP win that is now considered one of the weaker results in recent ceremonies.
I Play Rocky is a fascinating case study for prognosticators. The reviews aren’t overly strong. However, if this can nab the same TIFF hardware that Farrelly’s earlier title did, all bets are off and this could materialize in BP. An impressive box office run could assist and that’s certainly a possibility.
I’m skeptical that it makes the cut right now. If it does, Adapted Screenplay or Casting nods could follow. Where Rocky may have its best shot is Best Actor where Ippolito’s work is said to rise far above just an impersonation. He would face off against a seemingly crowded ring of competitors. I doubt I’ll have this predicted in BP or Actor in my imminent next update though it’ll be ranked higher in both than any time before. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Director Bassam Tariq and two-time Oscar winner Mahershala Ali were supposed to team up for the MCU’s Blade reboot but the project never materialized. They did end up collaborating on Your Mother Your Mother Your Mother which has premiered at the Toronto Film Festival before its September 25th stateside bow.
The action thriller features Ali as a hitman in a tale of faith and grief with a supporting cast including John Cho, Giancarlo Esposito, Abubakr Ali, Tramell Tillman, Tiffany Boone, and Laith Nakli. Early reviews are positive with 100% on Rotten Tomatoes and 82 on Metacritic.
Ali is receiving kudos for his headlining role. A decade ago, he took home Best Supporting Actor for Moonlight and followed that up two years later with a victory in the same category for Green Book. Despite praise for this leading man part, I don’t believe the Amazon MGM production is one that awards voters will take note of. That’s unless critics groups really get behind the performance of its lead. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
In September of last year, Mike Flanagan’s The Life of Chuck was a surprise winner of the People’s Choice Award at the Toronto Film Festival. Yet it’s the Cannes Film Festival that may dash Chuck‘s hopes for awards love at the 98th Academy Awards.
Allow me to explain. The People’s Choice Award at TIFF has, for nearly two decades, been one of the more reliable indicators of an eventual Best Picture nomination at the Oscars. How much so? 15 of the last 16 Choice recipients achieved a BP mention including winners Slumdog Millionaire, The King’s Speech, 12 Years a Slave, Green Book, and Nomadland. The current streak of PCA’s to BP nominees stands at 12 in a row. In 2023, American Fiction instantly became an Academy player after the People’s prize and it resulted in five nominations.
However, distributor Neon did an unexpected thing after Chuck took the Toronto prize. They chose not to release the picture in calendar year 2024 and dated it for 2025. The sci-fi drama based on a 2020 Stephen King novella arrives in limited release on June 6th with a nationwide expansion the following week. Tom Hiddleston leads a cast that includes Chiwetel Ejiofor, Karen Gillan, Jacob Tremblay, and Mark Hamill.
Leaving a nine month gap between the TIFF publicity and its release date was a gamble. At Cannes, which concluded just days ago, Neon went on a spending spree. The distributor bought up the rights to Palme d’Or winner It Was Just an Accident from Iranian filmmaker Jafar Panahi as well as Grand Prix taker Sentimental Value from Joachim Trier and acclaimed Brazilian political thriller The Secret Agent. Conventional wisdom is that Value has already reserved a slot among the ten Oscar BP contenders. Accident and Agent could also factor into the competition.
Needless to say, that leaves Neon in the mode of picking and choosing their favorites. Unless Chuck becomes a sizable sleeper hit at the box office (which seems questionable), Neon may opt to put their full weight behind their international films. Last year when they delayed Chuck, they went all in on Sean Baker’s Anora and that obviously paid off with victories in Picture, Director, Actress (Mikey Madison), and Original Screenplay.
I’ve had Chuck in my 10 predicted BP nominees for the last several weeks, including my latest update from seven days ago. When I publish my updated predictions next weekend, I suspect it will drop out. I do think it stands a solid shot at Adapted Screenplay and maybe Mark Hamill in Supporting Actor. However, Neon’s fortunes at Cannes seem to have diminished Chuck‘s exposure a few months down the line. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.
It begins with the ten BP contenders and then alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. I’ve already covered the first half of the BP contenders and if you missed them, they are linked at the bottom of the post. Next up is Jacques Audiard’s Emilia Pérez.
The Case for Emilia Pérez:
This multi-genre mashup of music and crime mixed with social commentary has been at the forefront of awards attention since it debuted at Cannes last summer and took the Jury Prize. That’s essentially second place to the Palme d’Or which went to Anora. Pérez landed an Academy ceremony leading 13 nominations including Director, Actress (Karla Sofia Gascón), Supporting Actress (Zoe Saldaña), Adapted Screenplay, International Feature Film, Cinematography, Film Editing, Makeup & Hairstyling, Original Score, two in Original Song, and Sound. Precursor nods have been in abundance for BP at Critics Choice, BAFTA, and PGA and Best Ensemble at SAG. Mr. Audiard is in contention at DGA. At the Golden Globes, Pérez beat a field in Best Motion Picture (Musical or Comedy) that included fellow BP nominees Anora, The Substance, and Wicked.
The Case Against Emilia Pérez:
While festival crowds have lauded it, general audiences have not. Pérez sports an 18% audience score on Rotten Tomatoes while the next lowest among the BP hopefuls is The Substance at 75%. If you’re not buying the Tomato measuring accuracy of that stat, the critics aren’t over the moon either. The RT score of 73% is the least of the bunch with the next lowest being A Complete Unknown at 80%. The 71 Metacritic rating is second to bottom with Unknown at 70. There’s also the Netflix factor. The distributor has yet to win Best Picture and that could be due to voter aversion to the giant streaming service. Some believe this was a major factor at the 91st Academy Awards when Green Book took top honors over Roma. The movie with the leading amount of nominations has failed to win BP more often than not in the 21st century (14 out of 24 times). Additionally, I’m Still Here (with its unexpected Pic nom) has emerged as serious competition in International Feature Film where Pérez was seen as the easy frontrunner. Then there’s the events of the last week where Karla Sofia Gascón’s troubling social media posts from a few years back resurfaced. The story has dominated headlines in the trades and beyond and could hinder the frontrunner status it has held with pundits.
The Verdict:
Obviously a lot to unpack here. I have never had Pérez 1st in my BP rankings, but it’s undeniably a major threat to win. I fully understand why many do have it above the others (especially after the Globe victory). Yet for the lengthy information contained above in Case Against, I’m highly hesitant to push the chips in for it.
My Case Of posts will continue with I’m Still Here…
As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.
It begins with the ten BP contenders and then alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. I’ve already covered Anora, The Brutalist, and A Complete Unknown for BP and if you missed those, they are linked at the bottom of the post. Our fourth hopeful is Conclave.
The Case for Conclave:
Edward Berger’s pulpy papal drama has been considered a top awards player since it debuted at Telluride in September. With 93% on Rotten Tomatoes, reviews are solid enough and it performed decently at the box office (over $30 million) for its genre. It is up for 8 statues including Actor (Ralph Fiennes), Supporting Actress (Isabella Rossellini), Adapted Screenplay, Costume Design, Film Editing, Original Score, and Production Design. Conclave has scored BP nods everywhere it needs to. It leads the BAFTAs with 12 nominations, is up at Critics Choice and PGA and for Best Ensemble at SAG, and contended at the Golden Globes in Best Drama where it won Best Screenplay. Berger’s behind the camera work also landed a DGA mention.
The Case Against Conclave:
Berger surprisingly missed the cut with the Academy in Best Director. Only three films in the 21st century (Argo, Green Book, CODA) have won BP without its maker being nominated. Berger can’t catch a break with the Academy as his 2022 war epic All Quiet on the Western Front received nine mentions but excluded his direction. The 79 Metacritic score is less than some competitors. It is possible that the only race where its the frontrunner is Adapted Screenplay and possibly Editing. Don’t expect either of its acting nominees to make podium walks. The Brutalist emerged victorious at the Globes in Best Drama.
The Verdict:
The snub of Berger looms large. I’d likely be more optimistic if he hadn’t been left out. Conclave has a slight chance in BP, but I wouldn’t put much faith in it.
My Case Of posts will continue with Dune: Part Two…
Silver Linings Playbook. 12 Years a Slave. The Imitation Game. Room. La La Land. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri. Green Book. Jojo Rabbit. Nomadland. Belfast. The Fabelmans. American Fiction. What do those films have in common? They are the last 12 recipients of the Toronto Film Festival’s People’s Choice Award. Another commonality? Every one of them was nominated for Best Picture at the Academy Awards. Three (Slave, Green Book, Nomadland) won the top prize.
The surprise victor of People’s Choice at TIFF this morning is Mike Flanagan’s The Life of Chuck. Based on a novella by Stephen King, it finds the writer/director once again adapting the legendary author as he’s previously done with Gerald’s Game and Doctor Sleep. Chuck is said to be more of crowdpleaser sci-fi drama. Tom Hiddleston, Mark Hamill, Chiwetel Ejiofor, Karen Gillan, and Jacob Tremblay lead the ensemble.
Chuck managed to outpace runners-up Anora and Emilia Pérez (both expected BP hopefuls) in Toronto. With the stats given above, Chuck has immediately entered the awards chat. That said, there are issues to consider before placing it in your BP ten.
First and foremost, Chuck has yet to acquire a stateside distributor. That will surely occur quickly. Yet we don’t know at press time whether it will release in 2024. If it does, it’s hard to argue with the power of TIFF’s biggest trophy. In 2023, American Fiction essentially became a contender in Canada and went onto 5 Academy nods with an Adapted Screenplay victory.
With 88% on Rotten Tomatoes and 66 on Metacritic, Flanagan’s flick is generating nice notices. Frankly, though, I wasn’t really considering it a true contender until this TIFF announcement.
So what are Chuck‘s prospects now? In addition to Picture, Director and especially Adapted Screenplay are in the mix. If there’s an acting play, it might be Luke Skywalker himself Mark Hamill in supporting. If it continues to gain momentum, Editing, Original Score, and Visual Effects might be down ballot categories to keep an eye on. Toronto has potentially brought good luck to Chuck. It hasn’t been mentioned in my forecasts before. This will change at the next update later this week. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
The Toronto Film Festival has concluded its 2024 business with the reveal of its People’s Choice Award and the 1st and 2nd runners-up for the prize. This announcement is eagerly awaited by Oscar prognosticators and for good reason. Since the Academy expanded beyond 5 nominees for Best Picture (it now stands at a firm ten but has been 8 or 9 in other years), the People’s Choice recipient has received a BP nod in 14 of those 15 years. The exception was 2011 when Where Do We Go Now? was the victor. Therefore the past 12 winners were Oscar BP contenders.
In 2023, we saw Cord Jefferson’s American Fiction vaulted into contention and ended up with five total nominations, taking the statue for Adapted Screenplay. In 2010, there was only one runner-up. Since 2009, that means 44 features have been People’s Choice selections or runner-ups. Of those 44, 25 went onto Academy nominations for BP. This includes Best Picture winners The King’s Speech, Argo, 12 Years a Slave, Spotlight, Green Book, Parasite, and Nomadland. In recent years, it’s become the norm for 2 of the 3 movies that Toronto names to make the Oscar ten. In addition to Fiction last year, The Holdovers was 1st runner-up.
All that context is pretext to an obvious point… this is a key precursor to the Oscars. Much speculation centered on Sean Baker’s Anora taking TIFF’s highest honor. The acclaimed film already picked up the Palme d’Or at Cannes and is seen as a threat to not only be nominated for Best Picture, but win. Mikey Madison is among the frontrunners for Best Actress. Instead it was 2nd runner-up. That third place showing, by the way, has been shared by Spotlight, Call Me by Your Name, Roma, Parasite, and The Power of the Dog.
First runner-up went to another Cannes premiere: Jacques Audiard’s musical crime flick Emilia Pérez. It’s also widely assumed to be a BP hopeful a few months down the line with potential acting nominations for Karla Sofia Gascón, Zoe Saldaña, and Selena Gomez. Recent 1st runners-up include Argo, Marriage Story, and the aforementioned The Holdovers.
Had Anora or Pérez gotten first place, no one would have been surprised. Same logic applies to Jason Reitman’s Saturday Night which was picked by some to win, place, or show. The actual recipient was unexpected and it’s The Life of Chuck from Mike Flanagan. It joins fellow People’s Choice honorees Precious, The King’s Speech, Silver Linings Playbook, The Imitation Game, Room, La La Land, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, Green Book, Jojo Rabbit, Nomadland, Belfast, and The Fabelmans.
Mr. Flanagan is best known for his contributions to the horror genre. That includes adaptations of Stephen King novels Gerald’s Game and Doctor Sleep. His largest claim to fame is his show running work on Netflix series The Haunting of Hill House, Midnight Mass, and The Fall of the House of Usher.
Chuck is a departure… sort of. It’s adapted from a Stephen King novella, but is more of a sci-fi effort. Reviews were solid (87% on Rotten Tomatoes and 66 on Metacritic). However, this was not really seen as a BP contender. Distribution and the release date are still influx. There’s no trailer.
Its awards narrative has certainly changed as of today. You can expect the People’s Choice champ starring Tom Hiddleston, Mark Hamill, Chiwetel Ejiofor, Karen Gillan, and Jacob Tremblay to pick up a distributor in a hurry. An awards campaign will surely follow. I’ve yet to even consider Chuck in my top 25 possibilities for BP. That won’t be the case when I pen my next update. Even if it’s not ultimately up for BP, Adapted Screenplay seems like a strong possibility now. Make no mistake. Toronto has given unanticipated life to Chuck.
Hello America. As we celebrate our birthday today, perhaps the biggest awards news this week came from the Venice Film Festival. It kicks off in late August and the surprise announcement was that Tim Burton’s long in the works sequel Beetlejuice Beetlejuice will open the Italian competition prior to its September 6th domestic theatrical bow.
That caused some prognosticators’ to speculate whether the Warner Bros release will make a play for Oscar inclusion. I wouldn’t go that far. In the past decade and a half, some of the premiere gala pics at Venice have generated BP nods including Black Swan, Gravity, Birdman, and La La Land. There’s been more that haven’t such as The Ides of March, Everest, Downsizing, First Man, and White Noise. That’s why you won’t find Beetlejuice Beetlejuice in my 25 possibilities for BP though I would expect to see its name (twice) in races like Makeup and Hairstyling and Production Design when I expand the category predictions a few weeks from now.
The London Film Festival shared its own scheduling report that Steve McQueen’s WWII drama Blitz will kick off that event in October before its November 1st output on the big screen. It will then hit Apple TV on November 22nd. I am a little befuddled that it is skipping Venice and Toronto, but it still appears to be Apple’s most significant contender. The word is also out that Saoirse Ronan will contend in lead Actress and not supporting for Blitz. That may well put her in competition with herself considering the acclaimed The Outrun (which was first seen at Sundance) and should make its way to theaters later this fall. I’ve had Ronan’s performance in Blitz slotted in supporting, but she makes the move up and replaces her Outrun work in the lead quintet. The buzz also has Harris Dickinson as the main supporting play over costars like Stephen Graham and Leigh Gill. Same with Kathy Burke in Supporting Actress. We’ll see if that holds true when those Londoners get eyeballs on it.
Another note – you may notice that Sing Sing is still #1 in BP while its director Greg Kwedar is on the outside looking in at sixth. That may seem counterintuitive. While it is still rare for a potential BP recipient to not see its maker in the cut for Director, it’s happened twice very recently with 2018’s Green Book and 2021’s CODA. Kwedar’s picture seems like the type of emotional crowdpleaser that could go all the way with voters. However, Kwedar himself may not make the quintet for his behind the camera efforts. I do anticipate him being up for the Adapted Screenplay that he cowrote.
Nickel Boys is the most significant gainer this time around. It moves into the BP ten while Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor vaults to #1 in Supporting Actress. The pic also materializes for the first go-round in Adapted Screenplay.
Speaking of that writing competition, I’ve shifted Emilia Pérez from Original to Adapted though that has not been determined at press time. We also have a new #1 in Adapted with my aforementioned BP leader Sing Sing.
You can read all the movement below and I’ll have another update available in a couple of weeks!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sing Sing (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Blitz (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Conclave (PR: 4) (E)
5. Anora (PR: 5) (E)
6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Queer (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The Piano Lesson (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Nickel Boys (PR: 16) (+7)
10. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 8) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
11. Nightbitch (PR: 11) (E)
12. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 12) (E)
13. The End (PR: 10) (-3)
14. The Apprentice (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Gladiator II (PR: 24) (+9)
16. A Real Pain (PR: 14) (-2)
17. The Room Next Door (PR: 18) (+1)
18. Nosferatu (PR: 25) (+7)
19. Maria (PR: 19) (E)
20. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 21) (+1)
21. The Fire Inside (PR: 15) (-6)
22. His Three Daughters (PR: 17) (-5)
23. Dídi (PR: 23) (E)
24. We Live in Time (PR: Not Ranked)
25. Here (PR: 20) (-5)
Dropped Out:
Hit Man
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 2) (E)
3. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)
4. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Luca Guadagnino, Queer (PR: 8) (E)
9. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Marielle Heller, Nightbitch (PR: 10) (E)
11. Malcolm Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Ridley Scott, Gladiator II (PR: 15) (+3)
13. Payal Kapadia, All We Imagine as Light (PR: 13) (E)
14. Joshua Oppenheimer, The End (PR: 9) (-5)
15. Todd Phillips, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 11) (-4)
Dropped Out:
Pedro Almodóvar, The Room Next Door
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 1) (E)
2. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 2) (E)
3. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 3) (E)
4. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)
5. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from Supporting
Other Possibilities:
6. Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (E)
7. Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 11) (+2)
10. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 5) (-5)
11. Ryan Destiny, The Fire Inside (PR: 9) (-2)
12. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 12) (E)
13. Lily Gladstone, Fancy Dance (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Zendaya, Challengers (PR: 14) (E)
15. Noémie Merlant, Emmanuelle (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Tilda Swinton, The End
Tessa Thompson, Hedda
Florence Pugh, We Live in Time
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 2) (E)
3. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 3) (E)
4. André Holland, The Actor (PR: 4) (E)
5. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie á Deux (PR: 6) (E)
7. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 7) (E)
8. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 11) (+3)
9. Paul Bettany, The Collaboration (PR: 9) (E)
10. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 10) (E)
11. Jesse Plemons, Kinds of Kindness (PR: 8) (-3)
12. Ethan Herisse, Nickel Boys (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Paul Mescal, Gladiator II (PR: 14) (+1)
14. Tom Hanks, Here (PR: 12) (-2)
15. Andrew Garfield, We Live in Time (PR: 13) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 4) (+3)
2. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 2) (E)
3. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 3) (E)
4. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 1) (-3)
5. Carrie Coon, His Three Daughters (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Kathy Burke, Blitz (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Julianne Moore, The Room Next Door (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Toni Collette, Juror No. 2 (PR: 14) (+5)
10. Erin Kellyman, Blitz (PR: 13) (+3)
11. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Lesley Manville, Queer (PR: 7) (-5)
13. Elizabeth Olsen, His Three Daughters (PR: 11) (-2)
14. Valeria Golino, Maria (PR: 8) (-6)
15. Emily Watson, Small Things like These (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Saoirse Ronan, Blitz – moved to lead Actress
Catherine Keener, Joker: Folie à Deux
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)
2. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 2) (E)
3. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Harris Dickinson, Blitz (PR: 12) (+7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 6) (E)
7. Drew Starkey, Queer (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 11) (+3)
9. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 9) (E)
10. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside (PR: 5) (-5)
11. John Lithgow, Conclave (PR: 7) (-4)
12. Stephen Graham, Blitz (PR: 14) (+2)
13. Scoot McNairy, Nightbitch (PR: 13) (-1)
14. Elliot Heffernan, Blitz (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Mark Eidelstein, Anora (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Michael Shannon, The End
Barry Keoghan, Bird
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)
2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)
3. A Real Pain (PR: 5) (+2)
4. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 4) (E)
5. His Three Daughters (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Hard Truths (PR: 9) (+3)
7. The Room Next Door (PR: 8) (+1)
8. The End (PR: 3) (-5)
9. The Apprentice (PR: 11) (+2)
10. Dídi (PR: 12) (+2)
11. Kinds of Kindness (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Juror No. 2 (PR: Not Ranked)
13. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 15) (+2)
14. Maria (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Challengers (PR: 14) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Emilia Pérez – moved to Adapted Screenplay
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sing Sing (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Conclave (PR: 1) (-1)
3. The Piano Lesson (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Nickel Boys (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Nightbitch (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Queer (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Emilia Pérez (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from Original Screenplay
As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.
It begins with the ten BP contenders and then alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five big races. I’ve already covered our first three pics with American Fiction, Anatomy of a Fall, and Barbie. They are linked at the bottom of the post. Behind door #4 is Alexander Payne’s The Holdovers.
The Case for The Holdovers:
With a 97% rating, it is #1 on the Tomato-meter (just edging the 96% of Past Lives and Anatomy of a Fall). The 70s set Christmas dramedy is Payne’s fourth feature to nab a BP nod after Sideways, The Descendants, and Nebraska and this might be his most appreciated work yet. It has scored BP nods at the Globes, Critics Choice, and BAFTA. Paul Giamatti is a threat to win Best Actor and Da’Vine Joy Randolph is absolutely the frontrunner in Supporting Actress. The Holdovers may also take Original Screenplay. If it emerges in all 3 of those races, that’s a nice little formula for a BP victory.
The Case Against The Holdovers:
It hasn’t won any of the aforementioned BP derbies (Globes, Critics) and it’s unlikely to take BAFTA. Payne missed the quintet in Director. In the 21st century, only 3 movies (Argo, Green Book, CODA) have been named BP without their maker being nominated. And then there’s the fact that Oppenheimer is simply a heavy favorite.
The Verdict:
An argument can be made that The Holdovers is #2 in the BP sweepstakes. However, Payne’s omission in Director sticks out and topping Oppenheimer is a potentially insurmountable challenge.
My Case Of posts will continue with Killers of the Flower Moon…
As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.
I will begin with the ten BP contenders and then alternate alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five big races. Cord Jefferson’s American Fiction kicks it off!
The Case for American Fiction:
The awards buzz for Hustle went into high gear when it won the People’s Choice Award at the Toronto Film Festival. That prize has also been bestowed to BP victors American Beauty, Slumdog Millionaire, The King’s Speech, 12 Years a Slave, Green Book, and Nomadland. The satire has been nominated for BP at Critics Choice and the Golden Globes and it exceeded expectations with 5 totals noms: Jeffrey Wright in Actor, Sterling K. Brown for Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay, and Original Score being the others.
The Case Against American Fiction:
It hasn’t won any of the previous BP derbies. Despite the five mentions, it missed out in key BP winning races like Director and Film Editing.
The Verdict:
American Beauty should still be the most recent BP recipient beginning the word American. Fiction‘s best hope for a statue is in the seemingly wide open Adapted Screenplay category where it emerged victorious at Critics Choice.
My Case Of posts will continue with Anatomy of a Fall…
All My Life... I Wanted To Be A Blogster 