The wealth was spread this evening at the 25th Annual Screen Actors Guild Awards as It provided more clues to how Oscar voters may choose their winners in February. I went 4 for 5 in my predictions and I’m pretty pleased with that because some of these races were quite unpredictable.
The miss was indeed a surprise as Emily Blunt took Supporting Actress for her work in AQuietPlace. She wasn’t even nominated for an Oscar and the exclusion of Regina King (IfBealeStreetCouldTalk) here was significant. Ironically, the Blunt victory over the Academy nominated Amy Adams in Vice or Emma Stone and Rachel Weisz (TheFavourite) may give King a boost come Oscar time.
As for the other acting categories, it was another trophy for Mahershala Ali in GreenBook for Supporting Actor as he continues to solidify his status as the front-runner. Same goes for Glenn Close in TheWife in lead actress. In lead actor, that’s a bit murkier as Rami Malek took the Actor for BohemianRhapsody. I still consider the Oscar race close between him and Christian Bale in Vice. Bradley Cooper’s chances for AStarisBorn have dimmed even more.
It was a bad night for that picture as it went 0 for 4. The top Ensemble race went to the sprawling cast of BlackPanther. What does that do for its Oscar chances? Truth be told, I think not much as the victor here often doesn’t match the Academy’s Best Picture recipient.
There’s your recap, folks! Now it’s onto more speculation for Oscar…
The 25th Annual Screen Actors Guild Award air tomorrow evening and they could shed some light on which performers are looking more solid for the Oscar in a few weeks. Let’s break down the top races with my winner predictions, shall we?
OutstandingPerformancebyaCastinaMotionPicture
The Nominees: BlackPanther, BlacKkKlansman, BohemianRhapsody, CrazyRichAsians, AStarisBorn
Analysis: It’s important to note that the SAG ceremony honors casts and not the “Best Picture” like other shows. This is about the ensemble. AStarisBorn is really concentrated on three performances (Bradley Cooper, Lady Gaga, Sam Elliot) and they’re all up for their individual races, where they all have a shot of winning. I believe it’s entirely possible, however, that the trio also all lose and this could be a considerable consolation prize. The other four films have more sprawling casts. That’s especially true for BlackPanther and I’ll say the voters ultimately reward in a different category to project.
Winner Prediction: BlackPanther
OutstandingPerformancebyaMaleActorinaLeadingRole
The Nominees: Christian Bale (Vice), Bradley Cooper (AStarisBorn), Rami Malek (BohemianRhapsody), Viggo Mortensen (GreenBook), John David Washington (BlacKkKlansman)
Analysis: As mentioned, Cooper is a possibility. Yet he’s come up empty in other precursors. This could come down to the two Golden Globe recipients for their categories – Bale and Malek. I think it’s a coin flip to be honest. I’ll give the latter a razor-thin edge.
The Nominees: Emily Blunt (MaryPoppinsReturns), Glenn Close (TheWife), Olivia Colman (TheFavourite), Lady Gaga (AStarisBorn), Melissa McCarthy (CanYouEverForgiveMe?)
Analysis: Gaga is the only actress whose picture is also nominated. Her tie with Glenn Close at the Critics Choice Awards made things even murkier. Colman is a possibility here, but I’ll say this branch of actors give it to Close after decades of memorable performances.
The Nominees: Mahershala Ali (GreenBook), Timothee Chalamet (BeautifulBoy), Adam Driver (BlacKkKlansman), Sam Elliot (AStarisBorn), Richard E. Grant (CanYouEverForgiveMe?)
Analysis: I wouldn’t count out Elliot, but Ali appears to be the front-runner in all these shows. I think his streak continues.
The Nominees: Amy Adams (Vice), Emily Blunt (AQuietPlace), Margot Robbie (MaryQueenofScots), Emma Stone (TheFavourite), Rachel Weisz (TheFavourite)
Analysis: A fascinating race as Oscar favorite Regina King’s work in IfBealeStreetCouldTalk was surprisingly snubbed. Blunt is a double nominee, but stands little chance of emerging victorious in either spot. TheFavourite ladies could split votes. Robbie didn’t land an Oscar nod and is a long shot. That leaves Adams, who could be a double winner tomorrow with her work in HBO’s SharpObjects.
Winner Prediction: Adams
And there you have it! I’ll have a recap up after the program airs!
The SAG Awards were announced this morning and a couple of items are clear. First, the Screen Actors Guild nods handed us some genuine surprises. Second, this branch of thespians really love them some Emily Blunt!
I went 18/25 on my predictions and let’s break down each category with some thoughts and my first winner predictions (with final ones coming right before the January ceremony).
Best Ensemble Film
Nominees: A Star Is Born, Black Panther, BlacKkKlansman, Bohemian Rhapsody, Crazy Rich Asians
The nominations reflected yours truly going just 2/5 (ouch). And there were shockers. If Beale Street Could Talk, with its sprawling cast, being snubbed counts as one. I also figured The Favourite and Vice could get in. It was probably foolish to think A Star Is Born would be left out, even if its only a trifecta of actors getting the lions share of attention. BlacKkKlansman wasn’t too surprising, but the inclusion of Bohemian Rhapsody definitely is. It’s probably time to start talking about the real chance it gets a Best Picture nomination, despite many mediocre reviews. The only two I got right: Black Panther and Crazy Rich Asians. As I see it now, Star could win here. Yet I’m still going with SAG honoring a larger group of performers and I’ll go with an unprecedented MCU victory (for now).
Predicted Winner: Black Panther
Best Actor
Nominees: Christian Bale (Vice), Bradley Cooper (A Star Is Born), Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody), Viggo Mortensen (Green Book), John David Washington (BlacKkKlansman)
Four out of five here with Ethan Hawke’s work in First Reformed and his momentum from critics group being interrupted. It’s John David Washington getting in for BlacKkKlansman instead. I had Ryan Gosling for First Man in as an alternate and it’s worth mentioning that the Neil Armstrong biopic received zero nominations.
Bale and Mortensen might have shots (and maybe even Malek), but Cooper has the edge.
Predicted Winner: Cooper
Best Actress
Nominees: Emily Blunt (Mary Poppins Returns), Glenn Close (The Wife), Olivia Colman (The Favourite), Lady Gaga (A Star Is Born), Melissa McCarthy (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)
Four for five. My upset pick of Toni Collette getting recognition for Hereditary didn’t pan out. Instead it was the aforementioned Ms. Blunt in with the rest of the expected nominees. Even with Actress having lots of options in 2018, this is beginning to look like the consensus Academy five. Like the Oscar race, I expect this to come down to Close v. Gaga.
Predicted Winner: Gaga
Best Supporting Actor
Nominees: Mahershala Ali (Green Book), Timothee Chalamet (Beautiful Boy), Adam Driver (BlacKkKlansman), Sam Elliot (A Star Is Born), Richard E. Grant (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)
Five for five. Like Actress, this is also looking to be the most probable group of Oscar nominees. And it’s a genuine three-way competition between Ali, Elliot, and Grant. You could flip a coin at the moment.
Predicted Winner: Ali
Best Supporting Actress
Nominees: Amy Adams (Vice), Emily Blunt (A Quiet Place), Margot Robbie (Mary Queen of Scots), Emma Stone (The Favourite), Rachel Weisz (The Favourite)
Three for five. The exclusion of Regina King in If Beale Street Could Talk (considered somewhat of an Oscar favorite) is totally unexpected. So is the inclusion of Blunt, who got an Actress nod and was a surprise nominee two years ago for The Girl on the Train. Claire Foy didn’t get in for First Man as Margot Robbie did (that could help her chances with the Academy). Honestly, I would have picked King to win had she been named here. I could see either of the Favourite ladies possibly winning, but I’ll go with Adams (who’s also nominated in the TV race for Sharp Objects). She could also win that and probably will.
Predicted Winner: Adams
And there you have it! Expect plenty more awards show and Oscar analysis in short order.
Yet another major precursor enters the fold tomorrow when the Screen Actors Guild nominations are announced. Unlike other awards shows, it’s wise to remember that this ceremony is solely voted upon by the thespians who make up SAG. That means no Director race.
More importantly, it means “Best Picture” does not exist. The big prize is Best Ensemble. That designation favors films with large casts. Let’s break down the five major categories with predictions and an alternate and wild card, shall we?
Best Ensemble
As mentioned, big casts help. That would seem to favor something like If Beale Street Could Talk with its sprawling one, as well as Black Panther and Crazy Rich Asians. Another pic fitting the bill is Vice. As long as the guild members saw it in time, I think it stands an excellent shot.
A Star Is Born is more of a question mark. While it could be looked at as a soft front-runner for Best Picture (along with Roma, which I don’t believe factors here), the actors garnering attention are Bradley Cooper, Lady Gaga, and Sam Elliot. While I believe they will be individually noticed, I’m questioning whether the picture itself is named here. The Favourite (even with it also being focused mostly on three actresses) likely has a better chance. There’s certainly other possibilities and they include BlacKkKlansman, Green Book, and Widows (though it’s seen its awards fortunes dwindle).
Predicted Nominees
Black Panther
Crazy Rich Asians
The Favourite
If Beale Street Could Talk
Vice
Alternate – A Star Is Born
Wild Card – Widows
Best Actor
The nominees for Actor here are a solid predictor for Oscar inclusion. In 2015 and 2017, four of the performers here went on to be honored by the Academy. In 2016, it was all five. I’m going with the 5 men I see as most likely to score an Oscar nod at this juncture – with a sneaking suspicion that Ryan Gosling for replace one of then.
Predicted Nominees
Christian Bale, Vice
Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
Ethan Hawke, First Reformed
Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
Viggo Mortensen, Green Book
Alternate – Ryan Gosling, First Man
Wild Card – Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate
Best Actress
There’s not quite as much match with Oscar and SAG here – three in 2015 and 2016 and four last year. As has been discussed many times on this blog, Best Actress is packed in 2018. The potential for a “surprise nominee” here is very real. I feel the need to pick one and I’m going with Toni Collette in Hereditary over the more probable Academy nominee Emily Blunt in Mary Poppins Returns.
Predicted Nominees
Glenn Close, The Wife
Toni Collette, Hereditary
Olivia Colman, The Favourite
Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born
Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Alternate – Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns
Wild Card – Viola Davis, Widows
Best Supporting Actor
We had an outlier in 2015 when only two of the SAG nominees here got Oscar attention. For the past two years, it’s been four. If there’s a real shocker here, look out for names like Daniel Kaluuya (Widows) or Russell Hornsby (The Hate U Give). I’m not willing to be that bold with my picks though.
Predicted Nominees
Mahershala Ali, Green Book
Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy
Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman
Sam Elliot, A Star Is Born
Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Alternate – Sam Rockwell, Vice
Wild Card – Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther
Best Supporting Actress
The SAG/Oscar match was four in 2015, five in 2016, and three for 2017. I’m estimating the five performers here match last week’s Golden Globe nominations. If there’s a surprise, look for Thomasin McKenzie (Leave No Trace), Natalie Portman (Vox Lux), or Marina de Tavira (Roma).
Predicted Nominees
Amy Adams, Vice
Claire Foy, First Man
Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
Emma Stone, The Favourite
Rachel Weisz, The Favourite
Alternate – Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased
Wild Card – Michelle Yeoh, Crazy Rich Asians
And there you have it! I’ll have reaction up tomorrow after the announcements are made.
With Oscar nominations set to drop Tuesday, a big precursor is bestowing trophies on Sunday night when the SAG Awards air. Oftentimes, this particular show can be a better indicator of things to come at the Academy Awards than the Golden Globes.
In the 23 years that the SAG ceremony has been held, the winners of the four categories have matched up with Oscar as follows:
Actor: 18/23
Actress: 17/23
Supporting Actor: 14/23
Supporting Actress: 16/23
Of course, since this is an award given out by fellow actors, there is no “Best Picture” category. Instead the night’s top prize is Best Ensemble (which has matched Best Picture just 10 of 23 times). The individual acting races could give further fuel to performers looking for that Oscar and continue to dilute the hopes of others.
Here’s my estimates for the SAG winners on Sunday:
Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture
Nominees:
The Big Sick
Get Out
Lady Bird
Mudbound
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Predicted Winner: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role
Nominees:
Timothee Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name
James Franco, The Disaster Artist
Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out
Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq.
Predicted Winner: Gary Oldman
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role
Nominees:
Judi Dench, Victoria and Abdul
Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
Predicted Winner: Frances McDormand
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
Nominees:
Steve Carell, Battle of the Sexes
Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water
Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Predicted Winner: Willem Dafoe
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role
Nominees:
Mary J. Blige, Mudbound
Hong Chau, Downsizing
Holly Hunter, The Big Sick
Allison Janney, I, Tonya
Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
Predicted Winner: Allison Janney
And there you have it! You can peruse my FINAL Oscar predictions here:
The final major awards ceremony before Oscar takes place tonight on TBS and TNT as the 23rd Annual Screen Actors Guild Awards airs. These awards and winners are voted by fellow thespians, so the races are a bit different in the sense that there’s no Best Picture per se. Instead it’s Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture and the five nominated pictures contains one rather glaring omission: LaLaLand, even though it’s the front runner at the Academy Awards.
We do have the other acting races we’re accustomed to, as well as Outstanding Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture. Let’s break each category down one by one with my predicted winners for this evening.
Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture
Analysis: The recipient here could solidify its status as Most Likely to Win Best Picture at the Oscars if LaLa doesn’t. I’ll predict the SAG voters give the edge to Barry Jenkins acclaimed drama over Kenneth Lonergan’s Manchester, just like the Globes did.
OutstandingPerformancebyaMaleActorinaLeadingRole
Nominees: Casey Affleck (ManchesterbytheSea), Andrew Garfield (HacksawRidge), Ryan Gosling (LaLaLand), Viggo Mortensen (CaptainFantastic), Denzel Washington (Fences)
Predicted Winner: Casey Affleck
Analysis: The five nominees match five for five with the Academy. Affleck has received the lions share of precursors thus far and I expect that to continue here. Washington is the only other possibility.
Nominees: Amy Adams (Arrival), Emily Blunt (TheGirlontheTrain), Natalie Portman (Jackie), Emma Stone (LaLaLand), Meryl Streep (FlorenceFosterJenkins)
Predicted Winner: Natalie Portman
Analysis: Yes, I’m going for the minor upset here as Stone is the likely front runner. Only the two of them and Streep match the Oscar nods, as SAG honored Adams and Blunt instead of Isabelle Huppert (Elle) and Ruth Negga (Loving).
Nominees: Mahershala Ali (Moonlight), Jeff Bridges (HellorHighWater), Hugh Grant (FlorenceFosterJenkins), Lucas Hedges (ManchesterbytheSea), Dev Patel (Lion)
Predicted Winner: Mahershala Ali
Analysis: A win by either Bridges or Patel wouldn’t surprise me, but Ali has picked up a lot of critics prizes. Aaron Taylor-Johnson, surprise Globe winner for NocturnalAnimals, isn’t present here.
Analysis: This is a tough one as either of the comic book flicks could win. Still, I’ll go with the only nominated Best Picture at the Oscars. By the way, why Nocturnal is present here baffles me.
