We are caught up and have reached 2022 in my posts speculating on a specific piece of Oscar history. As awards followers are aware, 2009 saw the Academy expand the Best Picture category from five movies to ten. That lasted for two years and in 2011, it switched to anywhere from 5-10 with 8 or 9 as the magic numbers for several years. In 2021, the number reverted back to a set ten.
What if that hadn’t happened? What if the BP derby had stayed at a quintet? What pictures would have made the cut?
For the ceremony that occurred less than three months ago, we know Everything Everywhere All at Once would land a spot. To say it was the big winner on Oscar night is an understatement. The multi-genre hit made off with 7 trophies – Picture, Director (Dan Kwan and Daniel Scheinert), Actress (Michelle Yeoh), Supporting Actress (Jamie Lee Curtis), Supporting Actor (Ke Huy Quan), Original Screenplay (also the Daniels), and Film Editing. It was nominated for four more – Supporting Actress (Stephanie Hsu), Costume Design, Original Score, and Original Song.
Picking the other 4 of 9 for the final five was no easy feat, but here’s my best speculation!
Well… almost. Before we get to that, this particular series will now become a yearly occurrence where I give you my final five in the coming years. However, stay tuned for the reverse of these write-ups. Starting soon and beginning with 2008 (the last year there were five nominees), I’ll give you speculation on which pictures I believe would be nominated if there were ten contending films.
Back to the Oscars that just happened…
All Quiet on the Western Front
Edward Berger’s World War I epic was one of the easiest picks on Oscar night to win the International Feature Film trophy. It also took home Cinematography, Original Score, and Production Design and received noms for Adapted Screenplay, Makeup and Hairstyling, Sound, and Visual Effects. The quartet of victories was second best to Everything.
Does It Make the Final Five?
Yes, despite surprising misses for its Director and in Film Editing. I still think the 9 nine total nods (also second best to Everything) puts it in the quintet.
Avatar: The Way of Water
As anticipated, James Cameron’s long-awaited sequel to the 2009 box office behemoth was a victor in Visual Effects. It also got nods in Production Design and Sound.
Does It Make the Final Five?
No. Water logged less than half of its predecessor’s nine mentions and Cameron himself didn’t make the directorial derby.
The Banshees of Inisherin
Martin McDonagh’s black comedy clocked nine nominations with the others being for the director and screenwriter (both McDonagh), Actor (Colin Farrell), two Supporting Actor bids (Brendan Gleeson and Barry Keoghan), Supporting Actress (Kerry Condon), Film Editing, and Original Score. It ended up going 0 for 8.
Does It Make the Final Five?
Yes. The winning percentage of zero was due to the Everything love, but it still would’ve found a slot among the five.
Elvis
Baz Luhrmann’s lavish musical biopic of The King shimmied to 8 nods including Actor (Austin Butler), Cinematography, Costume Design, Film Editing, Makeup and Hairstyling, Production Design, and Sound. Like Banshees, it left the building with no statues.
Does It Make the Final Five?
No. Had Elvis garnered wins in some of the below-the-line races (which it was expected to) or for Butler, I may have a different answer in this case. Yet it wasn’t to be.
The Fabelmans
Steven Spielberg’s most personal work to date saw 7 nominations for the director and screenwriter (both Spielberg with Tony Kushner co-scribing), Actress (Michelle Williams), Supporting Actor (Judd Hirsch), Original Score, and Production Design. In what’s starting to sound like a broken record, it failed to capitalize on any of its nominations.
Does It Make the Final Five?
Yes though I struggled with this one. Missing editing (a good harbinger of a BP nod) was a surprise and same goes for the cinematography. Ultimately the power of Spielberg might’ve reserved this for the fourth or fifth spot.
Tár
Todd Field’s profile of a complicated EGOT winner generated six mentions for its director and screenwriter (both Field), Actress (Cate Blanchett), Cinematography, and Film Editing. Once again – any potential victory was thwarted by Everything as it went 0/6.
Does It Make the Final Five?
Yes. I must say that I really went back and forth on this (more so than with The Fabelmans). Yet it managed to score inclusions in the precursors that matter most and it gets the edge for it.
Top Gun: Maverick
The moneymaking monolith of 2022 had a total of six nominations with Adapted Screenplay, Film Editing, Original Song, Sound, and Visual Effects on the menu. It emerged victorious in Sound (Everything and Western Front didn’t take them all).
Does It Make the Final Five?
No. I went back and forth between this and Tár for #5. The latter got in where it matters. Maverick, despite being the people’s champ, missed key races like Director (Joseph Kosinski), Actor (Tom Cruise), and Cinematography.
Triangle of Sadness
The Palme d’or recipient at Cannes was awarded an unexpected directing nod for Ruben Östlund and an expected screenwriting mention for him. The count for was 0 for 3.
Does It Make the Final Five?
No. Östlund’s surprise nomination for his behind the camera was a pleasant surprise, but a final five slot would be an even bigger shocker.
Women Talking
Director Sarah Polley won for her Adapted Screenplay and that marks Women‘s only other nom. That means the sprawling cast that included Rooney Mara, Claire Foy, and Jessie Buckley were all left out.
Does It Make the Final Five?
No. Despite the screenplay award, the aforementioned facts make this the easiest of the bunch to leave out (especially considering its two nods were the smallest of the group).
And that means my 2022 final five is:
All Quiet on the Western Front
The Banshees of Inisherin
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
Tár
Stay tuned for the inverse of these posts beginning with 2008!
If you missed my write-ups in the series covering 2009-21, you can access them right here:
All My Life... I Wanted To Be A Blogster 