Tag: Timothee Chalamet

99th Academy Awards Predictions: September 14th Edition

I did my last Oscar predictions update as August closed out and a lot has occurred since then. The Venice and Telluride Film Festivals have come and gone and Toronto’s is ongoing. We have buzz, reviews, and WOM on plenty more movies. You can peruse my blog for detailed posts on them.

So what’s changed and what’s changed the same? Let’s start with the same. The Odyssey and The Black Ball are still 1-2 in BP while Wild Horse Nine and The Debut have risen after their festival debuts. Yet there’s only a single newcomer in BP and it’s from a foreign feature that premiered months ago at Cannes. I’m swapping in All of a Sudden for Fjord (which won the Palme d’Or at that French fest back in May).

In Other Possibilities in Best Picture, You Can See Everything pops up in 19th. At Telluride, it was a project no one knew existed and the documentary focused on Nathan Fielder’s dealings with Elizabeth Holmes sits at #2 in Doc Feature behind new #1 NAZA. That doc received the longest recorded standing ovation in Venice history. Everything has a teaser that has already inspired countless memes.

In Best Actress, I already had Julianne Moore (The Debut) in 1st place but its unveiling certainly solidifies it. Same goes for her costar in Paul Giamatti in Supporting Actor.

John Malkovich rises to 1st in Best Actor for Wild Horse Nine with Elsinore‘s Andrew Scott on his heels and Matt Damon (The Odyssey) dropping from 1st to 3rd.

The All of a Sudden momentum benefits Virginie Efira in Best Actress. She joins the projected quintet with Renate Reinsve (Fjord) on the outside looking in. Efira’s costar Tao Okamoto rises in Supporting Actress as does Samantha Morton (The Odyssey) with Mariana di Girolamo (Wild Horse Nine) and Olivia Colman (Elsinore) dropping.

You can read all the movement below. I’ll note that The Odyssey is back up to 16 nominations which ties it with Sinners for the all-time record. My next update is coming in two weeks!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (+1)

4. The Debut (PR: 8) (+4)

5. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (-2)

6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 5) (-1)

7. The Invite (PR: 7) (E)

8. Obsession (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Behemoth! (PR: 10) (+1)

10. All of a Sudden (PR: 13) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

11. Fjord (PR: 6) (-5)

12. Digger (PR: 12) (E)

13. Michael (PR: 15) (+2)

14. Possible Love (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Elsinore (PR: 14) (-1)

16. I Play Rocky (PR: Not Ranked)

17. Ink (PR: 11) (-6)

18. Club Kid (PR: 24) (+6)

19. You Can See Everything (PR: Not Ranked)

20. The Social Reckoning (PR: 17) (-3)

21. Werwulf (PR: 19) (-2)

22. Being Heumann (PR: 20) (-2)

23. Primetime (PR: 16) (-7)

24. Josephine (PR: 22) (-2)

25. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 18) (-7)

Dropped Out:

The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth

Disclosure Day

A Long Winter

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo, The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Olivia Wilde, The Invite (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Jesse Eisenberg, The Debut (PR: 11) (+6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden (PR: 10) (+4)

7. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (E)

8. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Cristian Mingiu, Fjord (PR: 4) (-5)

10. Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Digger (PR: 8) (-2)

11. Tony Gilroy, Behemoth! (PR: 9) (-2)

12. Lee Chang-dong, Possible Love (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Curry Barker, Obsession (PR: 13) (E)

14. Danny Boyle, Ink (PR: 12) (-2)

15. Robert Eggers, Werwulf (PR: 15) (E)

Dropped Out:

Lance Oppenheim, Primetime

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Julianne Moore, The Debut (PR: 1) (E)

2. Inde Navarrette, Obsession (PR: 2) (E)

3. Olivia Wilde, The Invite (PR: 3) (E)

4. Sandra Hüller, Rose (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Renate Reinsve, Fjord (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie (PR: 7) (E)

8. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Léa Seydoux, Gentle Monster (PR: 11) (+2)

10. Rosalind Eleazar, Misty Green (PR: 14) (+4)

11. Emily Blunt, Disclosure Day (PR: 8) (-3)

12. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning (PR: 9) (-4)

14. Sandra Hüller, Fatherland (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Mason Reeves, Josephine (PR: 15) (E)

Dropped Out:

Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Andrew Scott, Elsinore (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Matt Damon, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (-2)

4. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Robert Pattinson, Primetime (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Tom Cruise, Digger (PR: 6) (E)

7. Pedro Pascal, Behemoth! (PR: 7) (E)

8. Anthony Ippolito, I Play Rocky (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Jaafar Jackson, Michael (PR: 9) (E)

10. Sebastian Stan, Fjord (PR: 8) (-2)

11. John Turturro, The Only Living Pickpocket in New York (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Seth Rogen, The Invite (PR: 10) (-2)

13. Andrew Garfield, Artificial (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Three (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Jordan Firstman, Club Kid (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Jack O’Connell, Ink

Dominic Sessa, Tony

Javier Bardem, The Beloved

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Penélope Cruz, The Invite (PR: 2) (E)

3. Samantha Morton, The Odyssey (PR: 7) (+4)

4. Lola Dueñas, The Black Ball (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Tao Okamoto, All of a Sudden (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Olivia Colman, Elsinore (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Penélope Cruz, The Black Ball (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Mariana di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (-5)

9. Sandra Hüller, Digger (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 12) (+2)

11. Scarlett Johansson, Paper Tiger (PR: 15) (+4)

12. Gillian Anderson, Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Miasma (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Eva Victor, Behemoth! (PR: 14) (+1)

14. Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 9) (-5)

15. Elizabeth Debicki, The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Claire Foy, Ink

Esmé Creed-Miles, Sense and Sensibility

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Paul Giamatti, The Debut (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 2) (E)

3. Edward Norton, The Invite (PR: 3) (E)

4. John Leguizamo, The Odyssey (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Guy Pearce, Ink (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. John Goodman, Digger (PR: 6) (E)

7. Robert Pattinson, The Odyssey (PR: 14) (+7)

8. Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning (PR: 8) (E)

9. Colman Domingo, Michael (PR: 9) (E)

10. Guitarricadelafuente, The Black Ball (PR: 10) (E)

11. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 7) (-4)

12. Skyler Gisondo, Primetime (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Riz Ahmed, Digger (PR: 11) (-2)

14. Channing Tatum, Josephine (PR: 12) (-2)

15. Tom Holland, The Odyssey (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Mark Ruffalo, Being Heumann

Daniel Kaluuya, Misty Green

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Debut (PR: 2) (E)

3. Obsession (PR: 3) (E)

4. Fjord (PR: 4) (E)

5. Club Kid (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Behemoth! (PR: 6) (E)

7. Tender Loving Care (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Digger (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Possible Love (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Elsinore (PR: 5) (-5)

Dropped Out:

The Drama

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Invite (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Odyssey (PR: 3) (E)

4. All of a Sudden (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Project Hail Mary (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Ink (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Primetime (PR: 7) (-1)

9. The Social Reckoning (PR: 9) (E)

10. The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 10) (E)

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Black Ball (PR: 1) (E)

2. All of a Sudden (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Fjord (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Possible Love (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Minotaur (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Fatherland (PR: 6) (E)

7. Rose (PR: 7) (E)

8. Woman Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Coward (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Silent Friend (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Mimesis

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wildwood (PR: 1) (E)

2. Toy Story 5 (PR: 2) (E)

3. Ray Gunn (PR: 3) (E)

4. Tangles (PR: 4) (E)

5. Iron Boy (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Hoppers (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Forgotten Island (PR: 6) (-1)

8. In Waves (PR: 8) (E)

9. Shaun the Sheep: The Beast of Mossy Bottom (PR: 9) (E)

10. Coyote vs. Acme (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Hexed

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. NAZA (PR: 3) (+2)

2. You Can See Everything (PR: Not Ranked)

3. Once Upon a Time in Harlem (PR: 1) (-2)

4. American Doctor (PR: 2) (-2)

5. One in a Million (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. 14th (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Rehearsals for a Revolution (PR: 10) (+3)

8. To Hold a Mountain (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Nuisance Bear (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Closure (PR: 7) (-3)

Dropped Out:

The History of Concrete

Best Casting

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 2) (+1)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Debut (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Being Heumann (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Michael (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Digger (PR: 7) (E)

8. All of a Sudden (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Fjord (PR: 4) (-5)

10. Dune: Part Three (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

The Invite

Elsinore

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 2) (E)

3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 4) (+1)

4. The Black Ball (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Digger (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Fatherland (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Werwulf (PR: 7) (E)

8. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 8) (E)

9. Behemoth! (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Disclosure Day (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sense and Sensbility (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Werwulf (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Michael (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (E)

7. Wuthering Heights (PR: 9) (+2)

8. The Devil Wears Prada 2 (PR: 8) (E)

9. I Love Boosters (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Mother Mary (PR: 10) (E)

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 4) (+1)

4. The Debut (PR: Not Ranked)

5. Behemoth! (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (-3)

7. Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (E)

8. The Invite (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Digger (PR: 9) (E)

10. You Can See Everything (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Ink

Fjord

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Werwulf (PR: 1) (E)

2. Digger (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Odyssey (PR: 6) (+3)

4. Wicker (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Michael (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Clayface (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (E)

8. Rose (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Elsinore (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Black Ball (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Obsession

Is God Is

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Behemoth! (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Disclosure Day (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 7) (+1)

7. The Debut (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Digger (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Werwulf (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Social Reckoning

Wildwood

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “This City May Have Chewed Me Up (But It Hasn’t Spit Me Out)” from The Debut (PR: 4) (+3)

2. “La Nieve” from The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. “I Knew It, I Knew You” from Toy Story 5 (PR: 1) (-2)

4. “By Any Means” from By Any Means (PR: 3) (-1)

5. “How to Write a Song (Without You)” from Power Ballad (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Let Me Sell You a Dream” from Musk (PR: Not Ranked)

7. “When I’m Home” from The Odyssey (PR: 6) (-1)

8. “Runway” from The Devil Wears Prada 2 (PR: 7) (-1)

9. “Chains of Love” from Wuthering Heights (PR: 9) (E)

10. “Save the Day” from Hoppers (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

TBD from Wildwood

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 2) (E)

3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Black Ball (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Backrooms (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Werwulf (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Digger (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 8) (E)

9. Wuthering Heights (PR: 9) (E)

10. Wild Horse Nine (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 2) (E)

3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Black Ball (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Behemoth! (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Michael (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Disclosure Day (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Werwulf (PR: 10) (+2)

9. The Debut (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Digger (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Whalefall

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Three (PR: 1) (E)

2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Odyssey (PR: 3) (E)

4. Whalefall (PR: 4) (E)

5. Spider-Man: Brand New Day (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Avengers: Doomsday (PR: 7) (+1)

7. The Sheep Detectives (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Godzilla Minus Zero (PR: 6) (-2)

9. The End of Oak Street (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Disclosure Day (PR: 10) (E)

That works out to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:

16 Nominations

The Odyssey

13 Nominations

The Black Ball

9 Nominations

Project Hail Mary

8 Nominations

The Debut

6 Nominations

The Invite, Wild Horse Nine

5 Nominations

All of a Sudden, Dune: Part Three

4 Nominations

Behemoth!

3 Nominations

Obsession

2 Nominations

Digger, Fjord, Michael, Toy Story 5, Werwulf

1 Nomination

American Doctor, Backrooms, Being Heumann, By Any Means, Club Kid, Disclosure Day, Ink, Elsinore, Iron Boy, Minotaur, NAZA, Once Upon a Time in Harlem, One in a Million, Possible Love, Power Ballad, Primetime, Ray Gunn, Rose, Sense and Sensibility, Spider-Man Brand New Day, Tangles, Whalefall, Wicker, Wildwood, You Can See Everything

99th Academy Awards Predictions: August 30th Edition

As August closes out and September dawns, film festival season is nearly upon us. Venice begins on Wednesday with Telluride playing out over Labor Day weekend. Between those two events, we are expected to get screenings and critical reaction for Martin McDonagh’s Wild Horse Nine, Jesse Eisenberg’s The Debut, Danny Boyle’s Ink, Lance Oppenheim’s Primetime, Florian Zeller’s Bunker, Mike Leigh’s Tender Loving Care, Simon Stone’s Elsinore, Andrew Haigh’s A Long Winter, and Werner Herzog’s Bucking Fastard to name a few.

September 10th brings Toronto with their own premieres including Sian Heder’s Being Heumann, Chris Rock’s Misty Green, Susanna White’s Prima Facie, Peter Farrelly’s I Play Rocky, and Bassam Tariq’s Your Mother Your Mother Your Mother.

Needless to say you can expect a bunch of Oscar Prediction posts over the next three weeks. And if history is any guide, my next update in a couple weekends should look quite different.

Away from festival buzz, there was a significant piece of news since my last update two weeks ago. It was announced that Diane Warren is behind the title track to the upcoming By Any Means starring Yayha Abdul-Mateen II and Mark Wahlberg. The songwriter has famously racked up 17 Best Original Song nominations without a win. She currently is up to nine noms in a row since 2017. It would be foolish to not include her in my five predicted tracks.

There’s not a ton of movement in the major races though it is a solid update for The Invite. Olivia Wilde’s dramedy rises to the #1 spot in Adapted Screenplay over The Black Ball with the filmmaker entering the directorial quintet for the first time. She knocks out Phil Lord and Christopher Miller (Project Hail Mary).

You can read all the movement below and expect plenty of posts in the coming days and weeks as the festivals commence!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)

4. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (E)

5. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (+1)

6. Fjord (PR: 7) (+1)

7. The Invite (PR: 8) (+1)

8. The Debut (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Obsession (PR: 9) (E)

10. Behemoth! (PR: 10) (E)

Other Possibilities:

11. Ink (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Digger (PR: 11) (-1)

13. All of a Sudden (PR: 13) (E)

14. Elsinore (PR: 16) (+2)

15. Michael (PR: 15) (E)

16. Primetime (PR: 18) (+2)

17. The Social Reckoning (PR: 14) (-3)

18. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 17) (-1)

19. Werwulf (PR: 21) (+2)

20. Being Heumann (PR: 22) (+2)

21. The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 20) (-1)

22. Josephine (PR: 25) (+3)

23. Disclosure Day (PR: 24) (+1)

24. Club Kid (PR: Not Ranked)

25. A Long Winter (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Fatherland

Artificial

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo, The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Cristian Mungiu, Fjord (PR: 4) (E)

5. Olivia Wilde, The Invite (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (E)

8. Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Digger (PR: 8) (E)

9. Tony Gilroy, Behemoth! (PR: 9) (E)

10. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Jesse Eisenberg, The Debut (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Danny Boyle, Ink (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Curry Barker, Obsession (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Lance Oppenheim, Primetime (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Robert Eggers, Werwulf (PR: 15) (E)

Dropped Out:

Pawel Pawlikowski, Fatherland

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Julianne Moore, The Debut (PR: 1) (E)

2. Inde Navarrette, Obsession (PR: 2) (E)

3. Olivia Wilde, The Invite (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Renate Reinsve, Fjord (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Sandra Hüller, Rose (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Virginie Efira, Al of a Sudden (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Emily Blunt, Disclosure Day (PR: 12) (+4)

9. Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Léa Seydoux, Gentle Monster (PR: 9) (-2)

12. Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Sandra Hüller, Fatherland (PR: 10) (-3)

14. Rosalind Eleazar, Misty Green (PR: 14) (E)

15. Mason Reeves, Josephine (PR: 15) (E)

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Matt Damon, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 2) (E)

3. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)

4. Andrew Scott, Elsinore (PR: 4) (E)

5. Robert Pattinson, Primetime (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Tom Cruise, Digger (PR: 6) (E)

7. Pedro Pascal, Behemoth! (PR: 7) (E)

8. Sebastian Stan, Fjord (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Jaafar Jackson, Michael (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Seth Rogen, The Invite (PR: 10) (E)

11. Jack O’Connell, Ink (PR: 12) (+1)

12. John Turturro, The Only Living Pickpocket in New York (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Three (PR: 14) (+1)

14. Dominic Sessa, Tony (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Javier Bardem, The Beloved (PR: 15) (E)

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Penélope Cruz, The Invite (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Mariana di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Olivia Colman, Elsinore (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Lola Dueñas, The Black Ball (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Penélope Cruz, The Black Ball (PR: 6) (E)

7. Samantha Morton, The Odyssey (PR: 7) (E)

8. Tao Okamoto, All of a Sudden (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 11) (+2)

10. Sandra Hüller, Digger (PR: 8) (-2)

11. Claire Foy, Ink (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 9) (-3)

13. Esmé Creed-Miles, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 13) (E)

14. Eva Victor, Behemoth! (PR: 14) (E)

15. Scarlett Johansson, Paper Tiger (PR: 15) (E)

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Paul Giamatti, The Debut (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 2) (E)

3. Edward Norton, The Invite (PR: 3) (E)

4. Guy Pearce, Ink (PR: 4) (E)

5. John Leguizamo, The Odyssey (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. John Goodman, Digger (PR: 6) (E)

7. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 7) (E)

8. Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning (PR: 8) (E)

9. Colman Domingo, Michael (PR: 9) (E)

10. Guitarradelafuente, The Black Ball (PR: 10) (E)

11. Riz Ahmed, Digger (PR: 13) (+2)

12. Channing Tatum, Josephine (PR: 14) (+2)

13. Mark Ruffalo, Being Heumann (PR: 11) (-2)

14. Robert Pattinson, The Odyssey (PR: 12) (-2)

15. Daniel Kaluuya, Misty Green (PR: 15) (E)

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Debut (PR: 2) (E)

3. Obsession (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Fjord (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Elsinore (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Behemoth! (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Digger (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Club Kid (PR: 8) (E)

9. Tender Loving Care (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Drama (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Primetime (moved to Adapted Screenplay)

Artificial

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Invite (PR: 3) (+2)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 1) (-1)

3. The Odyssey (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Project Hail Mary (PR: 4) (E)

5. All of a Sudden (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Ink (PR: 6) (E)

7. Primetime (PR: Not Ranked – moved from Original Screenplay)

8. Dune: Part Three (PR: 8) (E)

9. The Social Reckoning (PR: 7) (-2)

10. The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Sense and Sensibility

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Black Ball (PR: 1) (E)

2. Fjord (PR: 2) (E)

3. All of a Sudden (PR: 3) (E)

4. Minotaur (PR: 4) (E)

5. Possible Love (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Fatherland (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Rose (PR: 7) (E)

8. Coward (PR: 8) (E)

9. Mimesis (PR: 9) (E)

10. Silent Friend (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Beloved

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wildwood (PR: 1) (E)

2. Toy Story 5 (PR: 2) (E)

3. Ray Gunn (PR: 3) (E)

4. Tangles (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Iron Boy (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Forgotten Island (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Hoppers (PR: 7) (E)

8. In Waves (PR: 8) (E)

9. Shaun the Sheep: The Beast of Mossy Bottom (PR: 9) (E)

10. Hexed (PR: 10) (E)

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Once Upon a Time in Harlem (PR: 1) (E)

2. American Doctor (PR: 2) (E)

3. NAZA (PR: Not Ranked)

4. 14th (PR: 3) (-1)

5. One in a Million (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. To Hold a Mountain (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Closure (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Nuisance Bear (PR: 7) (-1)

9. The History of Concrete (PR: 9) (E)

10. Rehearsals for Revolution (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

When a Witness Recants

Musk

Best Casting

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (+1)

2. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Fjord (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Michael (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Debut (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Digger (PR: 6) (-1)

8. The Invite (PR: 8) (E)

9. Elsinore (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Dune: Part Three (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Being Heumann

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Black Ball (PR: 3) (E)

4. Project Hail Mary (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Fatherland (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Digger (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Werwulf (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Disclosure Day (PR: 9) (E)

10. Behemoth! (PR: 10) (E)

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Werwulf (PR: 3) (E)

4. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 4) (E)

5. Michael (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (E)

7. I Love Boosters (PR: 9) (+2)

8. The Devil Wears Prada 2 (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Wuthering Heights (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Mother Mary (PR: 10) (E)

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Behemoth! (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Invite (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Ink (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Digger (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Fjord (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Debut

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Werwulf (PR: 1) (E)

2. Digger (PR: 2) (E)

3. Wicker (PR: 7) (+4)

4. Clayface (PR: 4) (E)

5. Rose (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Odyssey (PR: 3) (-3)

7. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Michael (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Obsession (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Is God Is (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

The Black Ball

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Black Ball (PR: 6) (+3)

4. Disclosure Day (PR: 4) (E)

5. Behemoth! (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 7) (E)

8. Digger (PR: 8) (E)

9. The Social Reckoning (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Wildwood (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Ink

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “I Knew It, I Knew You” from Toy Story 5 (PR: 1) (E)

2. “La Nieve” from The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. “By Any Means” from By Any Means (PR: Not Ranked)

4. TBD from The Debut (PR: 3) (-1)

5. “How to Write a Song (Without You)” from Power Ballad (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. “When I’m Home” from The Odyssey (PR: 4) (-2)

7. “Runway” from The Devil Wears Prada 2 (PR: 6) (-1)

8. TBD from Wildwood (PR: Not Ranked)

9. “Chains of Love” from Wuthering Heights (PR: 8) (-1)

10. “Save the Day” from Hoppers (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

“La Playa” from The Black Ball

TBD from Hexed

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 2) (E)

3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)

4. Werwulf (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Black Ball (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Digger (PR: 6) (E)

7. Backrooms (PR: 7) (E)

8. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 8) (E)

9. Wuthering Heights (PR: 9) (E)

10. The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 10) (E)

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)

4. Behemoth! (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Disclosure Day (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Black Ball (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Michael (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Digger (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Whalefall (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Werwulf (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Three (PR: 1) (E)

2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Odyssey (PR: 3) (E)

4. Whalefall (PR: 4) (E)

5. Spider-Man: Brand New Day (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Godzilla Minus Zero (PR: 6) (E)

7. Avengers: Doomsday (PR: 7) (E)

8. The End of Oak Street (PR: 9) (+1)

9. The Sheep Detectives (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Disclosure Day (PR: 10) (E)

That equates to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:

14 Nominations

The Odyssey

12 Nominations

The Black Ball

9 Nominations

Project Hail Mary

8 Nominations

Wild Horse Nine

6 Nominations

Fjord, The Invite

5 Nominations

The Debut, Dune: Part Three

4 Nominations

Behemoth!

3 Nominations

Elsinore, Obsession, Werwulf

2 Nominations

All of a Sudden, Disclosure Day, Michael, Rose. Toy Story 5

1 Nomination

14th, American Doctor, By All Means, Clayface, Digger, Fatherland, Ink, Iron Boy, Minotaur, NAZA, Once Upon a Time in Harlem, One in a Million, Possible Love, Power Ballad, Primetime, Ray Gunn, Sense and Sensibility, Spider-Man: Brand New Day, Tangles, Whalefall, Wicker. Wildwood

99th Academy Awards Predictions: August 16th Edition

It goes without saying that the upcoming festivals will dramatically reshape the 99th Academy Awards. That’s in addition to numerous fall titles that will premiere beyond the late summer/early autumn festival slots.

There’s also the real chance that Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey could dominate the next ceremony. It has critical and audience love and fantastic box office grosses. Even though Nolan took over the 96th Oscars with Oppenheimer, history could repeat itself. I have it ranked #1 in a whopping 10 races. The Odyssey has held that perch in Picture and Director for a while. Yet for the first time, Matt Damon moves to the pole position in Best Actor with John Leguizamo making his inaugural appearance in the Supporting Actor quintet. My nomination count for Nolan’s epic grows from 14 to 16 and that ties it with last year’s Sinners for most mentions in the Academy’s history.

Another major development in Best Actor is Robert Pattinson (Primetime) moving into the high five with Pedro Pascal (Behemoth!) dipping out. In Supporting Actress, Olivia Colman (Elsinore) is in over Sandra Hüller (Project Hail Mary). Leguizamo’s aforementioned rise in Supporting Actor drops Steve Buscemi (Wild Horse Nine).

Finally, I’m condensing the screenplay derbies from 15 possibilities to 10. You can read all the movement below and expect one final update in two weeks before the madness we call Venice, Telluride, and Toronto begins!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)

4. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Debut (PR: 5) (E)

6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Fjord (PR: 6) (-1)

8. The Invite (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Obsession (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Behemoth! (PR: 8) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

11. Digger (PR: 11) (E)

12. Ink (PR: 13) (+1)

13. All of a Sudden (PR: 12) (-1)

14. The Social Reckoning (PR: 14) (E)

15. Michael (PR: 17) (+2)

16. Elsinore (PR: 15) (-1)

17. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 16) (-1)

18. Primetime (PR: Not Ranked)

19. Fatherland (PR: 19) (E)

20. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 18) (-2)

21. Werwulf (PR: 20) (-1)

22. Being Heumann (PR: 21) (-1)

23. Artificial (PR: 24) (+1)

24. Disclosure Day (PR: 22) (-2)

25. Josephine (PR: 23) (-2)

Dropped Out:

I Play Rocky

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo, The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Cristian Mungiu, Fjord (PR: 4) (E)

5. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Olivia Wilde, The Invite (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Digger (PR: 8) (E)

9. Tony Gilroy, Behemoth! (PR: 9) (E)

10. Jesse Eisenberg, The Debut (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Curry Barker, Obsession (PR: 12) (E)

13. Danny Boyle, Ink (PR: 13) (E)

14. Pawel Pawlikowski, Fatherland (PR: 14) (E)

15. Robert Eggers, Werwulf (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Georgia Oakley, Sense and Sensibility

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Julianne Moore, The Debut (PR: 1) (E)

2. Inde Navarrette, Obsession (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Renate Reinsve, Fjord (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Olivia Wilde, The Invite (PR: 4) (E)

5. Sandra Hüller, Rose (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning (PR: 7) (E)

8. Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Léa Seydoux, Gentle Monster (PR: 13) (+4)

10. Sandra Hüller, Fatherland (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Emily Blunt, Disclosure Day (PR: 9) (-3)

13. Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Rosalind Eleazar, Misty Green (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Mason Reeves, Josephine (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Sophie Okonedo, Clarissa

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Matt Damon, The Odyssey (PR: 3) (+2)

2. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Andrew Scott, Elsinore (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Robert Pattinson, Primetime (PR: 9) (+4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Tom Cruise, Digger (PR: 6) (E)

7. Pedro Pascal, Behemoth! (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Jaafar Jackson, Michael (PR: 8) (E)

9. Sebastian Stan, Fjord (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Seth Rogen, The Invite (PR: 10) (E)

11. John Turturro, The Only Living Pickpocket in New York (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Jack O’Connell, Ink (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Dominic Sessa, Tony (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Three (PR: 11) (-3)

15. Javier Bardem, The Beloved (PR: 15) (E)

Dropped Out:

Andrew Garfield, Artificial

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Mariana di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 2) (E)

3. Penélope Cruz, The Invite (PR: 3) (E)

4. Lola Dueñas, The Black Ball (PR: 4) (E)

5. Olivia Colman, Elsinore (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Penélope Cruz, The Black Ball (PR: 6) (E)

7. Samantha Morton, The Odyssey (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Sandra Hüller, Digger (PR: 11) (+3)

9. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 5) (-4)

10. Tao Okamoto, All of a Sudden (PR: 8) (-2)

11. Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 9) (-2)

12. Claire Foy, Ink (PR: 14) (+2)

13. Esmé Creed-Miles, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Eva Victor, Behemoth! (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Scarlett Johansson, Paper Tiger (PR: 15) (E)

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Paul Giamatti, The Debut (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 2) (E)

3. Edward Norton, The Invite (PR: 3) (E)

4. Guy Pearce, Ink (PR: 4) (E)

5. John Leguizamo, The Odyssey (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. John Goodman, Digger (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Colman Domingo, Michael (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Guittaricadelafuente, The Black Ball (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Mark Ruffalo, Being Heumann (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Robert Pattinson, The Odyssey (PR: 9) (-3)

13. Riz Ahmed, Digger (PR: 14) (+1)

14. Channing Tatum, Josephine (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Daniel Kaluuya, Misty Green (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

James Ortiz, Project Hail Mary

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Debut (PR: 2) (E)

3. Fjord (PR: 3) (E)

4. Obsession (PR: 4) (E)

5. Behemoth! (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Digger (PR: 6) (E)

7. Elsinore (PR: 7) (E)

8. Club Kid (PR: 8) (E)

9. Primetime (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Artificial (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

The Drama

Fatherland

I Play Rocky

Josephine

Misty Green

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Black Ball (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Odyssey (PR: 3) (+1)

3. The Invite (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Project Hail Mary (PR: 4) (E)

5. All of a Sudden (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Ink (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Social Reckoning (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (-1)

9. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 9) (E)

10. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 11) (+1)

Dropped Out:

Being Heumann

Prima Facie

A Long Winter

Minotaur

Wildwood

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Black Ball (PR: 1) (E)

2. Fjord (PR: 2) (E)

3. All of a Sudden (PR: 3) (E)

4. Minotaur (PR: 4) (E)

5. Fatherland (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Possible Love (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Rose (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Coward (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Mimesis (PR: 10) (+1)

10. The Beloved (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wildwood (PR: 1) (E)

2. Toy Story 5 (PR: 2) (E)

3. Ray Gunn (PR: 3) (E)

4. Forgotten Island (PR: 4) (E)

5. Tangles (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Iron Boy (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Hoppers (PR: 6) (-1)

8. In Waves (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Shaun the Sheep: The Beast of Mossy Bottom (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Hexed (PR: 10) (E)

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Once Upon a Time in Harlem (PR: 1) (E)

2. American Doctor (PR: 5) (+3)

3. 14th (PR: 2) (-1)

4. One in a Million (PR: 3) (-1)

5. To Hold a Mountain (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. When a Witness Recants (PR: 10) (+4)

7. Nuisance Bear (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Rehearsals for a Revolution (PR: Not Ranked)

9. The History of Concrete (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Musk (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Closure

Everybody to Kenmure Street

Best Casting

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. White Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Debut (PR: 8) (+4)

5. Michael (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Digger (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Fjord (PR: 4) (-3)

8. The Invite (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Being Heumann (PR: 10) (E)

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Black Ball (PR: 3) (E)

4. Digger (PR: 4) (E)

5. Fatherland (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Project Hail Mary (PR: 6) (E)

7. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Werwulf (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Disclosure Day (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Behemoth! (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Ink

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Werwulf (PR: 3) (E)

4. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 4) (E)

5. Michael (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Devil Wears Prada 2 (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Wuthering Heights (PR: 8) (E)

9. I Love Boosters (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Mother Mary (PR: 10) (E)

Best Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)

4. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (E)

5. Behemoth! (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (E)

7. Digger (PR: 7) (E)

8. The Invite (PR: 8) (E)

9. Ink (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Debut (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Fjord

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Werwulf (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Digger (PR: 1) (-1)

3. The Odyssey (PR: 3) (E)

4. Clayface (PR: 4) (E)

5. Michael (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (E)

7. Wicker (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Rose (PR: 8) (E)

9. The Black Ball (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Is God Is (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

The Bride!

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)

3. Behemoth! (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Disclosure Day (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Black Ball (PR: 3) (-3)

7. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 7) (E)

8. Digger (PR: 8) (E)

9. Ink (PR: 9) (E)

10. Wildwood (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Social Reckoning

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “I Knew It, I Knew You” from Toy Story 5 (PR: 1) (E)

2. “La Nieve” from The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E) – previously listed as TBD

3. TBD from The Debut (PR: 4) (+1)

4. “When I’m Home” from The Odyssey (PR: 6) (+2)

5. “How to Write a Song (Without You)” from Power Ballad (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Runway” from The Devil Wears Prada 2 (PR: 7) (+1)

7. “La Playa” from The Black Ball (PR: 3) (-4)

8. “Chains of Love” from Wuthering Heights (PR: 9) (+1)

9. TBD from Hexed (PR: Not Ranked)

10. “Save the Day” from Hoppers (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

“Shape of a Woman” from The Devil Wears Prada 2

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 2) (E)

3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)

4. Werwulf (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Black Ball (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Digger (PR: 6) (E)

7. Backrooms (PR: 7) (E)

8. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 8) (E)

9. Wuthering Heights (PR: 9) (E)

10. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 10) (E)

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Three (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Odyssey (PR: 2) (E)

3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)

4. Disclosure Day (PR: 8) (+4)

5. Michael (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Behemoth! (PR: 4) (-2)

7. The Black Ball (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Whalefall (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Werwulf (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Digger (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Three (PR: 1) (E)

2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Odyssey (PR: 3) (E)

4. Whalefall (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Spider-Man: Brand New Day (PR: 9) (+4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Godzilla Minus Zero (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Avengers: Doomsday (PR: 6) (-1)

8. The Sheep Detectives (PR: 8) (E)

9. The End of Oak Street (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Disclosure Day (PR: 10) (E)

And that equates to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:

16 Nominations

The Odyssey

11 Nominations

The Black Ball

9 Nominations

Project Hail Mary

8 Nominations

Wild Horse Nine

6 Nominations

The Debut, Dune: Part Three

5 Nominations

Fjord, The Invite

4 Nominations

Behemoth!, Michael

3 Nominations

Obsession, Werwulf

2 Nominations

All of a Sudden, Digger, Disclosure Day, Elsinore, Fatherland, Toy Story 5

1 Nomination

14th, American Doctor, Clayface, Forgotten Island, Ink, Minotaur, Once Upon a Time in Harlem, One in a Million, Power Ballad, Primetime, Ray Gunn, Rose, Sense and Sensibility, Spider-Man: Brand New Day, Tangles, To Hold a Mountain, Whalefall, Wildwood

99th Academy Awards Predictions: August 2nd Edition

As we enter the month of August, the fall film festival trio of Venice, Telluride, and Toronto are about a month away. Those fests will dramatically reshape the Oscar race for the 99th ceremony. In the meantime, we have Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey racking up terrific box office numbers and continuing to solidify its status as an across-the-board awards player.

There are release date questions while one significant feature has moved to the 2027 calendar. Chloe Domont’s A Place in Hell with Michelle Williams and Daisy Edgar-Jones will come out next spring and that’s why you’ll see it in the dropped out menu in various races including Picture, Actress, Supporting Actress, and Original Screenplay. Tom Ford’s Cry to Heaven has yet to be dated and appears to be skipping festivals. I’ve made the decision to take it out of contention until a release is scheduled.

On the other hand, Elsinore with Andrew Scott and Olivia Colman from Simon Stone is confirmed to come out this year and it could certainly be a possibility for its stars and elsewhere.

We have a big development in Best Picture and elsewhere. Simply put, I’m skeptical about Digger. It could absolutely get back in the mix once eyeballs are on it. However, Digger drops and The Invite rises. The Digger fall also dramatically shapes the acting races with Tom Cruise plummeting from 1st to 6th in Best Actor. Maybe this will look foolish down the line, but it’s where I’m at now.

You can read all the movement below and expect the next update in two weeks!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)

4. White Horse Nine (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Debut (PR: 6) (+1)

6. Fjord (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Dune: Part Three (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Behemoth! (PR: 9) (+1)

9. The Invite (PR: 12) (+3)

10. Obsession (PR: 10) (E)

Other Possibilities:

11. Digger (PR: 5) (-6)

12. All of a Sudden (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Ink (PR: 13) (E)

14. The Social Reckoning (PR: 16) (+2)

15. Elsinore (PR: 21) (+6)

16. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 17) (+1)

17. Michael (PR: 20) (+3)

18. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 19) (+1)

19. Fatherland (PR: 18) (-1)

20. Werwulf (PR: Not Ranked)

21. Being Heumann (PR: 23) (+2)

22. Disclosure Day (PR: 24) (+2)

23. Josephine (PR: 25) (+2)

24. Artificial (PR: 22) (-2)

25. I Play Rocky (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

A Place in Hell

Cry to Heaven

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo, The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Cristian Mungiu, Fjord (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Olivia Wilde, The Invite (PR: 12) (+5)

8. Alejandro Gonzalez Iñárritu, Digger (PR: 4) (-4)

9. Tony Gilroy, Behemoth! (PR: 9) (E)

10. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden (PR: 10) (E)

11. Jesse Eisenberg, The Debut (PR: 11) (E)

12. Curry Barker, Obsession (PR: 9) (-3)

13. Danny Boyle, Ink (PR: 13) (E)

14. Pawel Pawlikowski, Fatherland (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Georgia Oakley, Sense and Sensibility (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Tom Ford, Cry to Heaven

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Julianne Moore, The Debut (PR: 1) (E)

2. Renate Reinsve, Fjord (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Inde Navarrette, Obsession (PR: 3) (E)

4. Olivia Wilde, The Invite (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Sandra Hüller, Rose (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Emily Blunt, Disclosure Day (PR: 11) (+2)

10. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann (PR: 12) (+2)

11. Sandra Hüller, Fatherland (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Léa Seydoux, Gentle Monster (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Sophie Okonedo, Clarissa (PR: 14) (E)

15. Rosalind Eleazar, Misty Green (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Michelle Williams, A Place in Hell

Mason Reeves, Josephine

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (+2)

2. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)

3. Matt Damon, The Odyssey (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Pedro Pascal, Behemoth! (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Andrew Scott, Elsinore (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Tom Cruise, Digger (PR: 1) (-5)

7. Sebastian Stan, Fjord (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Jaafar Jackson, Michael (PR: 8) (E)

9. Robert Pattinson, Primetime (PR: 9) (E)

10. Seth Rogen, The Invite (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Three (PR: 13) (+2)

12. John Turturro, The Only Living Pickpocket in New York (PR: 10) (-2)

13. Jack O’Connell, Ink (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Andrew Garfield, Artificial (PR: 11) (-3)

15. Javier Bardem, The Beloved (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Dominic Sessa, Tony

Nicholas Hoult, Cry to Heaven

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Mariana Di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Penélope Cruz, The Invite (PR: 6) (+3)

4. Lola Dueñas, The Black Ball (PR: 10) (+6)

5. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Penélope Cruz, The Black Ball (PR: 3) (-3)

7. Olivia Colman, Elsinore (PR: 12) (+5)

8. Tao Okamoto, All of a Sudden (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Samantha Morton, The Odyssey (PR: 14) (+4)

11. Sandra Hüller, Digger (PR: 4) (-7)

12. Esmé Creed-Miles, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 15) (+3)

13. Eva Victor, Behemoth! (PR: 11) (-2)

14. Claire Foy, Ink (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Scarlett Johansson, Paper Tiger (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Daisy Edgar-Jones, A Place in Hell

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Paul Giamatti, The Debut (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Edward Norton, The Invite (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Guy Pearce, Ink (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. John Leguizamo, The Odyssey (PR: 12) (+6)

7. Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning (PR: 7) (E)

8. John Goodman, Digger (PR: 2) (-6)

9. Robert Pattinson, The Odyssey (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Colman Domingo, Michael (PR: 8) (-2)

11. Guitarricadelafuente, The Black Ball (PR: 11) (E)

12. Mark Ruffalo, Being Heumann (PR: 14) (+2)

13. James Ortiz, Project Hail Mary (PR: 13) (E)

14. Riz Ahmed, Digger (PR: 9) (-5)

15. Channing Tatum, Josephine (PR: 15) (E)

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Debut (PR: 2) (E)

3. Fjord (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Obsession (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Behemoth! (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Digger (PR: 2) (-3)

7. Elsinore (PR: 11) (+4)

8. Club Kid (PR: 8) (E)

9. Artificial (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Primetime (PR: 9) (-1)

11. The Drama (PR: 13) (+2)

12. Fatherland (PR: 12) (E)

13 . I Play Rocky (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Josephine (PR: 14) (E)

15. Misty Green (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

A Place in Hell

The Only Living Pickpocket in New York

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Black Ball (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Invite (PR: 4) (+2)

3. The Odyssey (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (-1)

5. All of a Sudden (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Ink (PR: 6) (E)

7. Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (E)

8. The Social Reckoning (PR: 8) (E)

9. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 9) (E)

10. Being Heumann (PR: 12) (+2)

11. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 11) (E)

12. Prima Facie (PR: 14) (+2)

13. A Long Winter (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Minotaur (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Wildwood (PR: 13) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Cry to Heaven

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Black Ball (PR: 1) (E)

2. Fjord (PR: 2) (E)

3. All of a Sudden (PE: 3) (E)

4. Minotaur (PR: 4) (E)

5. Possible Love (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Fatherland (PR: 6) (E)

7. Coward (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Rose (PR: 7) (-1)

9. The Beloved (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Mimesis (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wildwood (PR: 1) (E)

2. Toy Story 5 (PR: 2) (E)

3. Ray Gunn (PR: 3) (E)

4. Forgotten Island (PR: 4) (E)

5. Tangles (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Hoppers (PR: 6) (E)

7. In Waves (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Shaun the Sheep: The Beast of Mossy Bottom (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Iron Boy (PR: 9) (E)

10. Hexed (PR: 10) (E)

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Once Upon a Time in Harlem (PR: 1) (E)

2. 14th (PR: 2) (E)

3. One in a Million (PR: 3) (E)

4. To Hold a Mountain (PR: 5) (+1)

5. American Doctor (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Nuisance Bear (PR: 6) (E)

7. Closure (PR: Not Ranked)

8. The History of Concrete (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Everybody to Kenmure Street (PR: Not Ranked)

10. When a Witness Recants (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Rehearsals for a Revolution

Time and Water

Best Casting

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Fjord (PR: 4) (E)

5. Michael (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Invite (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Dune: Part Three (PR: 10) (+3)

8. The Debut (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Digger (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Being Heumann (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Obsession

Best Cinemtography

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Black Ball (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Digger (PR: 4) (E)

5. Fatherland (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (-3)

7. Werwulf (PR: 7) (E)

8. Ink (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 9) (E)

10. Behemoth! (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Cry to Heaven

Disclosure Day

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 3) (E)

4. Werwulf (PR: 4) (E)

5. Michael (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (E)

7. I Love Boosters (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Wuthering Heights (PR: 8) (E)

9. The Devil Wears Prada 2 (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Mother Mary (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Cry to Heaven

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)

4. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Behemoth! (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Digger (PR: 4) (-3)

8. The Invite (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Fjord (PR: 8) (-1)

10. The Debut (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Digger (PR: 1) (E)

2. Werwulf (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Odyssey (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Clayface (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Wicker (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Michael (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Rose (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Is God Is (PR: 10) (-1)

10. The Bride! (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

The Black Ball

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Black Ball (PR: 3) (E)

4. Behemoth! (PR: 4) (E)

5. Disclosure Day (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (E)

7. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 7) (E)

8. Digger (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Ink (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Social Reckoning (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Werwulf

Wildwood

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “I Knew It, I Knew You” from Toy Story 5 (PR: 1) (E)

2. TBD from The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. “La Playa” from The Black Ball (PR: 4) (+1)

4. TBD from The Debut (PR: 3) (-1)

5. “How to Write a Song (Without You)” from Power Ballad (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. “When I’m Home” from The Odyssey (PR: Not Ranked)

7. “Runway” from The Devil Wears Prada 2 (PR: 6) (-1)

8. “Shape of a Woman” from The Devil Wears Prada 2 (PR: Not Ranked)

9. “Chains of Love” from Wuthering Heights (PR: 9) (E)

10. “Save the Day” from Hoppers (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

TBD from The Odyssey

TBD from Wildwood

TBD from The Rivals of Amziah King

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 2) (E)

3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)

4. Werwulf (PR: 5) (+1)

5. The Black Ball (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Digger (PR: 6) (E)

7. Backrooms (PR: 7) (E)

8. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 8) (E)

9. Wuthering Heights (PR: 10) (+1)

10. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Cry to Heaven

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Three (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Odyssey (PR: 2) (E)

3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)

4. Behemoth! (PR: 8) (+4)

5. Michael (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Black Ball (PR: 6) (E)

7. Whalefall (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Disclosure Day (PR: 4) (-4)

9. Digger (PR: 9) (E)

10. Werwulf (PR: 10) (E)

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Three (PR: 1) (E)

2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Odyssey (PR: 3) (E)

4. Godzilla Minus Zero (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Whalefall (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Avengers: Doomsday (PR: 6) (E)

7. The End of Oak Street (PR: 8) (+1)

8. The Sheep Detectives (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Spider-Man: Brand New Day (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Disclosure Day (PR: 7) (-3)

Dropped Out:

The Mandalorian and Grogu

That equates to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:

14 Nominations

The Odyssey

13 Nominations

The Black Ball

10 Nominations

Project Hail Mary

9 Nominations

Wild Horse Nine

6 Nominations

Behemoth!, Fjord

5 Nominations

Dune: Part Three, The Invite

3 Nominations

Michael, Obsession, Werwulf

2 Nominations

All of a Sudden, Digger, Toy Story 5

1 Nomination

14th, American Doctor, Clayface, Disclosure Day, Elsinore, Fatherland, Forgotten Island, Godzilla Minus Zero, Ink, Minotaur, Once Upon a Time in Harlem, One in a Million, Possible Love, Power Ballad, Ray Gunn, Rose, Sense and Sensibility, Tangles, To Hold a Mountain, Whalefall, Wicker, Wildwood

99th Academy Awards Predictions: July 19th Edition

Moviegoers continue to get new looks at potential Oscar contenders in the last couple of weeks since my last predictions. We got our first extended glimpse for Alejandro Gonzalez Iñárritu’s Digger and it has sparked plenty of social media chatter for what appears to be a big swing for the filmmaker and Tom Cruise. I could see this going either way. For now I’m keeping it above the line in several of my forecasts.

This is the weekend where Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey is dominating the box office with the review embargo having lifted four days ago. The results are impressive with 95% on Rotten Tomatoes and an 89 Metacritic. It is a threat not only to be nominated in Best Picture and Director (which appears automatic) but to win. As I wrote about in my detailed prediction post, the acting races shifted a bit in my calculations. The “in or out” debate regarding Matt Damon continues. However, Anne Hathaway seems to have solidified a spot in Supporting Actress. Her costar Samantha Morton’s inclusion is less likely unless Universal mounts a spirited campaign. As for the Supporting Actors, Robert Pattinson/Tom Holland/John Leguizamo could materialize. Yet I wouldn’t be surprised if no consensus emerges among them and they all miss the cut.

Fall festivals are beginning to announce their lineups. The opener at Venice was revealed to be Danny Boyle’s Ink starring Jack O’Connell, Guy Pearce (as media titan Rupert Murdoch), and Claire Foy. This was a surprise considering the release date was expected to be 2027. It was also announced that Netflix will carry U.S. distribution rights. Now it’s a question mark whether the streamer will choose a limited theatrical engagement in 2026 followed by the small screen output. The high profile Venice slot has me leaning toward a premiere before the calendar year closes. It joins my lineup just on the outside looking in with Pearce projected in Supporting Actor.

Speaking of release date uncertainty, we still don’t know if Tom Ford’s Cry to Heaven (an adaptation of an Anne Rice novel) is out this year. I’m still listing it, but it drops out of my BP lineup. The beneficiary of that change is Tony Gilroy’s Behemoth! which unveiled its first trailer this week. Leading man Pedro Pascal also makes the cut for the first time over Sebastian Stan (Fjord). There’s also chatter that Joel Coen’s Jack of Spades is moving to 2027 and I’m moving it outside of my projections at press time.

The Toronto Film Festival’s lineup is beginning trickle out with Sian Heder’s Being Heumann serving as the opener and Prima Facie with Cynthia Erivo tagged as a gala presentation. Paper Tiger from James Gray, which played at Cannes to a mostly positive though not overwhelming reception, will be first out of the gate at the New York Film Festival.

You can read all the movement from the last two weeks below and expect a fresh update in a couple of weeks!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (E)

5. Digger (PR: 3) (-2)

6. The Debut (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Fjord (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Dune: Part Three (PR: 8) (E)

9. Behemoth! (PR: 12) (+3)

10. Obsession (PR: 9) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

11. All of a Sudden (PR: 11) (E)

12. The Invite (PR: 17) (+5)

13. Ink (PR: Not Ranked)

14. A Place in Hell (PR: 14) (E)

15. Cry to Heaven (PR: 10) (-5)

16. The Social Reckoning (PR: 13) (-3)

17. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 15) (-2)

18. Fatherland (PR: 16) (-2)

19. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 19) (E)

20. Michael (PR: 21) (+1)

21. Elsinore (PR: Not Ranked)

22. Artificial (PR: 18) (-4)

23. Being Heumann (PR: 23) (E)

24. Disclosure Day (PR: 20) (-4)

25. Josephine (PR: 22) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Jack of Spades

Werwulf

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Javier Ambrossi and Javie Calvo, The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Alejandro Gonzalez Iñárritu, Digger (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Cristian Mungiu, Fjord (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 6) (E)

7. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Tony Gilroy, Behemoth! (PR: 13) (+5)

9. Curry Barker, Obsession (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden (PR: 10) (E)

11. Jesse Eisenberg, The Debut (PR: 11) (E)

12. Olivia Wilde, The Invite (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Danny Boyle, Ink (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Tom Ford, Cry to Heaven (PR: 9) (-5)

15. Pawel Pawlikowski, Fatherland (PR: 12) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Chloe Domont, A Place in Hell

Georgia Oakley, Sense and Sensibility

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Julianne Moore, The Debut (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Michelle Williams, A Place in Hell (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Inde Navarrette, Obsession (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Renate Reinsve, Fjord (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Sandra Hüller, Rose (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning (PR: 6) (E)

7. Olivia Wilde, The Invite (PR: 15) (+8)

8. Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie (PR: 9) (E)

10. Sandra Hüller, Fatherland (PR: 10) (E)

11. Emily Blunt, Disclosure Day (PR: 8) (-3)

12. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann (PR: 12) (E)

13. Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 11) (-2)

14. Sophie Okonedo, Clarissa (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Mason Reeves, Josephine (PR: 14) (-1)

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Tom Cruise, Digger (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)

3. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Matt Damon, The Odyssey (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Pedro Pascal, Behemoth! (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sebastian Stan, Fjord (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Andrew Scott, Elsinore (PR: 12) (+5)

8. Jaafar Jackson, Michael (PR: 8) (E)

9. Robert Pattinson, Primetime (PR: 10) (+1)

10. John Turturro, The Only Living Pickpocket in New York (PR: 7) (-3)

11. Andrew Garfield, Artificial (PR: 9) (-2)

12. Jack O’Connell, Ink (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Three (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Dominic Sessa, Tony (PR: 14) (E)

15. Nicholas Hoult, Cry to Heaven (PR: 11) (-4)

Dropped Out:

Rami Malek, The Man I Love

Javier Bardem, The Beloved

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mariana di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (E)

2. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey (PR: 7) (+5)

3. Penélope Cruz, The Black Ball (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Sandra Hüller, Digger (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Daisy Edgar-Jones, A Place in Hell (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Penélope Cruz, The Invite (PR: 6) (E)

7. Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 11) (+3)

9. Tao Okamoto, All of a Sudden (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Lola Dueñas, The Black Ball (PR: 13) (+3)

11. Eva Victor, Behemoth! (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Olivia Colman, Elsinore (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Claire Foy, Ink (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Samantha Morton, The Odyssey (PR: 10) (-4)

15. Esmé Creed-Miles, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 9) (-6)

Dropped Out:

Halle Bailey, The Debut

Scarlett Johansson, Paper Tiger

Elizabeth Debicki, The Adventures of Cliff Booth

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Paul Giamatti, The Debut (PR: 1) (E)

2. John Goodman, Digger (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Edward Norton, The Invite (PR: 8) (+4)

5. Guy Pearce, Ink (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning (PR: 7) (E)

8. Colman Domingo, Michael (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Riz Ahmed, Digger (PR: 6) (-3)

10. Robert Pattinson, The Odyssey (PR: 4) (-6)

11. Guittarricadelafuente, The Black Ball (PR: 14) (+3)

12. John Leguizamo, The Odyssey (PR: Not Ranked)

13. James Ortiz, Project Hail Mary (PR: 10) (-3)

14. Mark Ruffalo, Being Heumann (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Channing Tatum, Josephine (PR: 11) (-4)

Dropped Out:

Andrew Scott, A Place in Hell

Jesse Plemons, Digger

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Debut (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Digger (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Fjord (PR: 4) (E)

5. Obsession (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Behemoth! (PR: 6) (E)

7. A Place in Hell (PR: 7) (E)

8. Club Kid (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Primetime (PR: 12) (+3)

10. Artificial (PR: 8) (-2)

11. Elsinore (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Fatherland (PR: 13) (+1)

13. The Drama (PR: 15) (+2)

14. Josephine (PR: 14) (E)

15. The Only Living Pickpocket Living in New York (PR: 10) (-5)

Dropped Out:

Jack of Spades

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Black Ball (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Odyssey (PR: 2) (E)

3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Invite (PR: 5) (+1)

5. All of a Sudden (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Ink (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Dune: Part Three (PR: 8) (+1)

8. The Social Reckoning (PR: 7) (-1)

9. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 9) (E)

10. Cry to Heaven (PR: 6) (-4)

11. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Being Heumann (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Wildwood (PR: 13) (E)

14. Prima Facie (PR: 12) (-2)

15. Minotaur (PR: 14) (-1)

Dropped Out:

A Long Winter

Best International Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Black Ball (PR: 1) (E)

2. Fjord (PR: 2) (E)

3. All of a Sudden (PR: 3) (E)

4. Minotaur (PR: 4) (E)

5. Coward (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Fatherland (PR: 6) (E)

7. Rose (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Possible Love (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Mimesis (PR: 8) (-1)

10. The Beloved (PR: 10) (E)

Best Animated Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wildwood (PR: 1) (E)

2. Toy Story 5 (PR: 2 (E)

3. Ray Gunn (PR: 3) (E)

4. Forgotten Island (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Tangles (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Hoppers (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Shaun the Sheep: The Beast of Mossy Bottom (PR: 8) (+1)

8. In Waves (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Iron Boy (PR: 9) (E)

10. Hexed (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Minions & Monsters

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Once Upon a Time in Harlem (PR: 1) (E)

2. 14th (PR: Not Ranked)

3. One in a Million (PR: 7) (+4)

4. American Doctor (PR: 6) (+2)

5. To Hold a Mountain (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Nuisance Bear (PR: 2) (-4)

7. The History of Concrete (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Rehearsals for a Revolution (PR: 9) (+1)

9. When a Witness Recants (PR: 5) (-4)

10. Time and Water (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Everybody to Kenmure Street

Best Casting

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Fjord (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Michael (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Debut (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Digger (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Obsession (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Being Heumann (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Dune: Part Three (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Cry to Heaven

Behemoth!

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Digger (PR: 5) (+1)

5. The Black Ball (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Fatherland (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Werwulf (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Cry to Heaven (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Wild Horse Nine (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Disclosure Day (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Jack of Spades

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 3) (E)

4. Werwulf (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Michael (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 5) (-1)

7. The Devil Wears Prada 2 (PR: 7) (E)

8. Wuthering Heights (PR: 9) (+1)

9. I Love Boosters (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Cry to Heaven (PR: 4) (-6)

Dropped Out:

Jack of Spades

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Digger (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Behemoth! (PR: 10) (+5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Fjord (PR: 8) (E)

9. The Debut (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Invite (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Cry to Heaven

Obsession

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Digger (PR: 1) (E)

2. Werwulf (PR: 2) (E)

3. Clayface (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Michael (PR: 5) (+1)

5. The Odyssey (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wicker (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (E)

8. The Black Ball (PR: 6) (-2)

9. The Bride! (PR: 9) (E)

10. Is God Is (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Cry to Heaven

Madden

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (+1)

3. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Behemoth! (PR: Not Ranked)

5. Disclosure Day (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (E)

7. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Werwulf (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Digger (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Wildwood (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Cry to Heaven

The Social Reckoning

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “I Knew It, I Knew You” from Toy Story 5 (PR: 1) (E)

2. TBD from The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. TBD from The Debut (PR: 3) (E)

4. “La Playa” from The Black Ball (PR: 4) (E)

5. “How to Write a Song (Without You)” from Power Ballad (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Runway” from The Devil Wears Prada 2 (PR: 6) (E)

7. TBD from The Odyssey (PR: Not Ranked)

8. TBD from Wildwood (PR: Not Ranked)

9. “Chains of Love” from Wuthering Heights (PR: 7) (-2)

10. TBD from The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

TBD from Hexed

“Save the Day” from Hoppers

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (-1)

4. The Black Ball (PR: 4) (E)

5. Werwulf (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Digger (PR: 6) (E)

7. Backrooms (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Sense and Sensibility (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Cry to Heaven (PR: 5) (-4)

10. Wuthering Heights (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Jack of Spades

The Adventures of Cliff Booth

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Three (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Odyssey (PR: 2) (E)

3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)

4. Disclosure Day (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Whalefall (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Black Ball (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Michael (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Behemoth! (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Digger (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Werwulf (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Cry to Heaven

Obsession

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Three (PR: 1) (E)

2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Odyssey (PR: 3) (E)

4. Whalefall (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Godzilla Minus Zero (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Avengers: Doomsday (PR: 6) (E)

7. Disclosure Day (PR: 7) (E)

8. The End of Oak Street (PR: 9) (+1)

9. The Sheep Detectives (PR: 10) (+1)

10. The Mandalorian and Grogu (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Wildwood

That works out to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:

14 Nominations

The Odyssey

13 Nominations

The Black Ball

9 Nominations

Digger, Project Hail Mary

7 Nominations

Wild Horse Nine

6 Nominations

Fjord

5 Nominations

The Debut, Dune: Part Three

4 Nominations

Behemoth!

3 Nominations

Michael, Obsession, Werwulf

2 Nominations

All of a Sudden, The Invite, A Place in Hell, Toy Story 5, Whalefall

1 Nomination

14th, American Doctor, Clayface, Coward, Forgotten Island, Godzilla Minus Zero, Ink, Minotaur, Once Upon a Time in Harlem, One in a Million, Power Ballad, Ray Gunn, Rose, Sense and Sensibility, Tangles, To Hold a Mountain, Wildwood

99th Academy Awards Predictions: May 30th Edition

It’s been over three weeks since I’ve updated my Oscar predictions in the six major categories of Picture, Director, and the four acting races. A little thing called the Cannes Film Festival happened in between. In the past few cycles, you can usually count on 2-3 films screened in the French Riviera to eventually make the Best Picture cut at the Academy Awards.

Some features like Na Hong-jin’s Hope and James Gray’s Paper Tiger saw their fortunes take a hit. I would say there are four titles that standing the best chance at finding themselves in the Oscar mix: Cristian Mingiu’s Fjord (which won the Palme d’Or), Ryusuke Hamaguchi’s All of a Sudden, Fatherland from Pawel Pawlkowski, and especially The Black Ball from Javier Calvo and Javier Ambrossi. You can read my detailed prediction posts on the those Cannes titles and more on the blog from the past few days. There’s others that could gain momentum including Minotaur, Coward, and Club Kid.

Steven Spielberg’s Disclosure Day didn’t screen at Cannes, but is readying release on June 12th. Influencers who’ve seen it are highly positive. That said, it is a wise practice to wait until the real review embargo lapses to get a clear picture of its awards viability. For now, I have the movie, Spielberg, and Emily Blunt just on the outside looking in.

The horror flick Obsession drew rave critical reactions and fantastic box office numbers that are continuing to grow. This has truly opened the door for Inde Navarrette to snag an acting nod and, in a best case scenario, BP inclusion (still seems like a long shot but you never know). It’s a legit question as to whether Navarrette competes in lead Actress or Supporting Actress. For now, I’m slotting her as a possibility (though not yet a nominee) in the former. Focus Features will clear it up as some point though it might be a while.

You can read all the movement below and I’ll have the next update available in mid-June!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)

3. Digger (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (-1)

5. The Black Ball (PR: Not Ranked)

6. Fjord (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Dune: Part Three (PR: 8) (+1)

8. No One Cares (PR: 6) (-2)

9. The Social Reckoning (PR: 9) (E)

10. Cry to Heaven (PR: 12) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

11. Disclosure Day (PR: Not Ranked)

12. All of a Sudden (PR: 10) (-2)

13. Fatherland (PR: 7) (-6)

14. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 17) (+2)

15. A Place in Hell (PR: 13) (-2)

16. Werwulf (PR: 15) (-1)

17. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 25) (+8)

18. Jack of Spades (PR: 20) (+2)

19. Behemoth! (PR: 23) (+4)

20. Being Heumann (PR: 21) (+1)

21. The Entertainment System is Down (PR: 19) (-2)

22. Michael (PR: 24) (+2)

23. Josephine (PR: 17) (-6)

24. Saturn Return (PR: 18) (-6)

25. Obsession (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Hope

Paper Tiger

A Long Winter

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Digger (PR: 2) (E)

3. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Javier Calva and Javier Ambrossi, The Black Ball (PR: Not Ranked)

5. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Cristian Mingiu, Fjord (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Tom Ford, Cry to Heaven (PR: 11) (+4)

8. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three (PR: 8) (E)

9. Pawel Pawlikowski, Fatherland (PR: 6) (-3)

10. Steven Spielberg, Disclosure Day (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden (PR: 7) (-4)

12. Jesse Eisenberg, No One Cares (PR: 9) (-3)

13. Aaron Sorkin, The Social Reckoning (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Georgia Oakley, Sense and Sensibility (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Robert Eggers, Werwulf (PR: 13) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Na Hong-jin, Hope

James Gray, Paper Tiger

Greg Kwedar, Saturn Return

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Renate Reinsve, Fjord (PR: 1) (E)

2. Julianne Moore, No One Cares (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Michelle Williams, A Place in Hell (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sandra Hüller, Fatherland (PR: 2) (-4)

7. Emily Blunt, Disclosure Day (PR: Not Raked)

8. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Inde Navarrette, Obsession (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Sandra Hüller, Rose (PR: 8) (-2)

11. Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann (PR: 9) (-3)

13. Sophie Okonedo, Clarissa (PR: 10) (-3)

14. Mason Reeves, Josephine (PR: 11) (-3)

15. Rachel Brosnahan, Saturn Return (PR: 13) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Penélope Cruz, Bunker

Lily Gladstone, The Memory Police

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Tom Cruise, Digger (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sebastian Stan, Fjord (PR: 3) (E)

4. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (E)

5. Matt Damon, The Odyssey (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Nicholas Hoult, Cry to Heaven (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Jaafar Jackson, Michael (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Dominic Sessa, Tony (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Pedro Pascal, Behemoth! (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Rami Malek, The Man I Love (PR: 14) (+4)

11. Robert Pattinson, Primetime (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Three (PR: 15) (+3)

13. John Turturro, The Only Living Pickpocket in New York City (PR: 10) (-3)

14. Hanns Zischler, Fatherland (PR: 5) (-9)

15. Javier Bardem, The Beloved (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Jeremy Allen White, The Social Reckoning

Adam Driver, Paper Tiger

Josh O’Connor, Jack of Spades

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mariana Di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sandra Hüller, Digger (PR: 2) (E)

3. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey (PR: 7) (+4)

4. Tao Okamoto, All of a Sudden (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Penélope Cruz, The Black Ball (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (-3)

7. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Daisy Edgar-Jones, A Place in Hell (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Halle Bailey, No One Cares (PR: 4) (-5)

10. Esmé Creed-Miles, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Elizabeth Debicki, The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Adele, Cry to Heaven (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Penélope Cruz, The Invite (PR: 14) (+1)

14. Lesley Manville, Jack of Spades (PR: 10) (-4)

15. Scarlett Johansson, Paper Tiger (PR: 9) (-6)

Dropped Out:

Kirsten Dunst, The Entertainment System is Down

Caitriona Balfe, A Long Winter

Gemma Chan, Josephine

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Paul Giamatti, No One Cares (PR: 1) (E)

2. John Goodman, Digger (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Robert Pattinson, The Odyssey (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning (PR: 6) (E)

7. Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Cry to Heaven (PR: 15) (+8)

8. Jesse Plemons, Digger (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Colman Domingo, Michael (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Tom Holland, The Odyssey (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Owen Cooper, Cry to Heaven (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Channing Tatum, Josephine (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Andrew Scott, A Place in Hell (PR: 8) (-5)

14. Mark Ruffalo. Being Heumann (PR: 12) (-2)

15. Antonio Banderas, Tony (PR: 14) (-1)

Dropped Out:

David Oyelowo, Clarissa

99th Academy Awards Predictions: May 6th Edition

My second helping of ranked Oscar predictions for next year’s 99th ceremony can be called the pre-Cannes estimates. That festival in the French Riviera kicks off May 12th and runs through May 23rd. It will be our first look at several potential contenders: Ryusuke Hamaguchi’s All of a Sudden, Pawel Pawlikowski’s Fatherland, Cristian Mungiu’s Fjord, Na Hong-jin’s Hope, James Gray’s Paper Tiger, and The Man I Love from Ira Sachs to name a few. Keep an eye on the blog for my individual posts exploring the viability of the screening pictures.

The Academy made some news of its own by announcing rule changes. The most significant is that actors can be nominated twice in the same category. There’s been recent examples of when this could have resulted in a performer getting two nods. I would say most recently that Sebastian Stan could have benefited. He was nominated in lead Actor for The Apprentice and a double shot was possible via A Different Man. Going back a ways, Kate Winslet won Best Actress in 2008 for The Reader and might have seen her name pop again for Revolutionary Road. In 2006, Kate’s Titanic mate Leonardo DiCaprio was in contention for Blood Diamond. He could have easily landed another shot via The Departed.

In International Feature Film, the criteria has always been that a submitting nation can choose just one entrant for consideration. While that rule holds, the Academy has added another path to get in. If a picture wins a qualifying international festival (such as Cannes, Berlin, Toronto, Sundance, Venice), it is now a contender. This would have helped Anatomy of a Fall in 2023 since France did not choose it as their representative picture, but it emerged victorious for the Palme d’Or at Cannes.

Since my last update in mid-April, Michael opened to gigantic box office and mediocre reviews. While the audience score on Rotten Tomatoes is high, critical griping could cripple its viability at the Oscars. However, I wouldn’t completely rule out the acclaimed work of Jaafar Jackson and Colman Domingo. Best Picture? Probably a bridge too far despite the gaudy numbers.

The Devil Wears Prada 2 also hit multiplexes. While Meryl Streep was a Best Actress nominee 20 years ago for the original, a second at-bat seems like a reach. The sequel could materialize, however, in Costume Design and/or Original Song where Lady Gaga has a track. Those categories won’t be forecasted until a few weeks down the line.

We also learned that Narnia: The Magician’s Nephew from Greta Gerwig will not be out (on Netflix) until 2027. I had it on the outside looking in at #11. It drops from contention this time around.

You can read all the speculation below and my next update will arrive as Cannes concludes!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)

3. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Digger (PR: 5) (E)

5. Fjord (PR: 6) (E)

6. No One Cares (PR: 6) (E)

7. Fatherland (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Dune: Part Three (PR: 10) (+2)

9. The Social Reckoning (PR: 9) (E)

10. All of a Sudden (PR: 7) (-3)

Other Possibilities:

11. Hope (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Cry to Heaven (PR: 16) (+4)

13. A Place in Hell (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Paper Tiger (PR: 21) (+7)

15. Werwulf (PR: 18) (+3)

16. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 23) (+7)

17. Josephine (PR: 17) (E)

18. Saturn Return (PR: 22) (+4)

19. The Entertainment System is Down (PR: 14) (-5)

20. Jack of Spades (PR: 24) (+4)

21. Being Heumann (PR: 15) (-6)

22. A Long Winter (PR: 13) (-9)

23. Behemoth! (PR: 25) (+2)

24. Michael (PR: 20) (-4)

25. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 19) (-6)

Dropped Out:

Narnia: The Magician’s Nephew

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Alejandro Gonzalez Iñárritu, Digger (PR: 2) (E)

3. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Cristian Mingiu, Fjord (PR: 3) (+1)

5. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Pawel Pawlikowski, Fatherland (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Jesse Eisenberg, No One Cares (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Na Hong-jin, Hope (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Tom Ford, Cry to Heaven (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Aaron Sorkin, The Social Reckoning (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Robert Eggers, Werwulf (PR: 14) (+1)

14. James Gray, Paper Tiger (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Greg Kwedar, Saturn Return (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Greta Gerwig, Narnia: The Magician’s Nephew

Ruben Östlund, The Entertainment System is Down

David Fincher, The Adventures of Cliff Booth

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Renate Reinsve, Fjord (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sandra Hüller, Fatherland (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Julianne Moore, No One Cares (PR: 3) (E)

4. Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Michelle Williams, A Place in Hell (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden (PR: 6) (E)

7. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Sandra Hüller, Rose (PR: 11) (+3)

9. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Sophie Okonedo, Clarissa (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Mason Reeves, Josephine (PR: 8) (-3)

12. Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 14) (+2)

13. Rachel Brosnahan, Saturn Return (PR: 13) (E)

14. Penélope Cruz, Bunker (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Lily Gladstone, The Memory Police (PR: 12) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Amy Adams, At the Sea

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Tom Cruise, Digger (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sebastian Stan, Fjord (PR: 4) (+1)

4. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Hanns Zischler, Fatherland (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Matt Damon, The Odyssey (PR: 6) (E)

7. Dominic Sessa, Tony (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Jaafar Jackson, Michael (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Nicholas Hoult, Cry to Heaven (PR: 9) (E)

10. John Turturro, The Only Living Pickpocket in New York (PR: 15) (+5)

11. Jeremy Allen White, The Social Reckoning (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Adam Driver, Paper Tiger (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Josh O’Connor, Jack of Spades (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Rami Malek, The Man I Love (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Three (PR: 11) (-4)

Dropped Out:

Robert Aramayo, I Swear

Pedro Pascal, Behemoth!

Brad Pitt, The Adventures of Cliff Booth

Charles Melton, Saturn Return

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mariana di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Sandra Hüller, Digger (PR: 6) (+4)

3. Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (-2)

4. Halle Bailey, No One Cares (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Daisy Edgar-Jones, A Place in Hell (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Tao Okamato, All of a Sudden (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 8) (E)

9. Scarlett Johannson, Paper Tiger (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Lesley Manville, Jack of Spades (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Esmé Creed-Miles, Sense and Sensibility (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Kirsten Dunst, The Entertainment System is Down (PR: 12) (E)

13. Caitriona Balfe, A Long Winter (PR: 9) (-4)

14. Penélope Cruz, The Invite (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Gemma Chan, Josephine (PR: 13) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Wunmi Mosaku, The Social Reckoning

Frances McDormand, Jack of Spades

Elizabeth Debicki, The Adventures of Cliff Booth

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Paul Giamatti, No One Cares (PR: 1) (E)

2. John Goodman, Digger (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Robert Pattinson, The Odyssey (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning (PR: 6) (-1)

7. Colman Domingo, Michael (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Andrew Scott, A Place in Hell (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Tom Holland, The Odyssey (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Jesse Plemons, Digger (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Channing Tatum, Josephine (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Mark Ruffalo, Being Heumann (PR: 9) (-3)

13. David Oyelowo, Clarissa (PR: 13) (E)

14. Antonio Banderas, Tony (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Cry to Heaven (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Daniel Brühl, The Entertainment System is Down

Riz Ahmed, Digger

    99th Academy Awards Predictions: April 19th Edition

    Barely a month beyond the 98th edition of the Academy Awards, we have arrived at my first ranked predictions for the 99th ceremony. We begin with six major categories – Best Picture, Director, and the four acting derbies.

    I gave you my first ranked glimpses for the previous telecast around the same time last year in these same races. How did that impossibly early forecast turn out? I correctly called four of the eventual ten BP nominees with Hamnet, Marty Supreme, Sentimental Value, and Sinners. Winner One Battle After Another as well as Bugonia, F1, and Frankenstein were listed in Other Possibilities. So 80% of the BP contenders were identified with The Secret Agent and Train Dreams not being mentioned in April 2025.

    In Best Director, three of the five filmmakers were predicted: Ryan Coogler (Sinners), Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme), and Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value). Statue recipient Paul Thomas Anderson from One Battle and Chloé Zhao (Hamnet) were in Other Possibilities.

    As for Best Actress, Jessie Buckley (Hamnet) swept the season and was in my predicted quintet. So was Sentimental Value‘s Renate Reinsve while Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You) and Emma Stone (Bugonia) were in Other Possibilities. Only Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue) wasn’t listed. In Best Actor, Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme) was in my quintet. Three others – winner Michael B. Jordan (Sinners), Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another), and Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon) were Other Possibilities with Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent) as the sole thespian not identified.

    My projected Supporting Actress five rightly named Teyana Taylor (One Battle) with Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value) as a possibility. Fanning’s costar Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Wumni Mosaku (Sinners), and the victorious Amy Madigan (Weapons) were not found among my possibilities. In Supporting Actor, Stellan Skarsgård from Value was in my five with winner Sean Penn (One Battle) and Delroy Lindo (Sinners) as possibilities. Battle‘s Benicio del Toro and Frankenstein‘s Jacob Elordi were not to be found yet.

    Let’s get some caveats out of the way. Some of the performers listed in lead will end up in supporting and vice versa. As an example, I figured Paul Mescal (Hamnet) would go lead for that film last year, but he was slotted in supporting. He ended up not being nominated but likely came close. For instance in this year’s listings, I don’t know if Sam Rockwell will be lead or supporting for Wild Horse Nine but my hunch says the latter at press time. The distributor will eventually clear that up.

    We will see pictures push to 2027. When I did my initial projections a year ago for 2025, Michael and The Rivals of Amziah King were thought to be releases for that calendar frame. Both are being put out in ’26. I have Michael still as a potential nominee in some competitions. Not so at this time for Rivals.

    And now the most important forewarning. Some movies you find below will turn out to be non-contenders. My inaugural look at the 98th Oscars listed Luca Guadagnino’s After the Hunt at #1 in Best Picture, Director, Actress (Julia Roberts), #4 in Supporting Actress (Ayo Edebiri), and #2 in Supporting Actor (Andrew Garfield). After its Venice festival premiere, the mixed to negative reaction drastically changed its narrative. It ended up with zero nominations. My April 2025 #1’s in the supporting fields – Ariana Grande (Wicked: For Good) and Adam Sandler (Jay Kelly) – did not make final cut either.

    So take this speculation as what it is – speculative. The picture and Best Picture will become clearer in time. That said, a reminder that 80% of the BP nominees were mentioned a year ago in addition to 100% of the directors and 80% of the lead acting hopefuls could be found in the initial post. On the flip side, nearly all of my acting picks for a nomination are coming from projected BP nominees and the percentage probably won’t be quite that high.

    When Sinners came out last year, it was a box office juggernaut with widespread critical acclaim. Yet I wondered whether the spring release could mean it would fall by the wayside months down the line. That’s why I named it in Other Possibilities for Picture, Director, Actor, and Supporting Actor. What happened months down the line? A record-setting 16 nominations with Jordan winning Actor. I won’t make the same mistake with Project Hail Mary. It has been out for weeks and already looks like a strong contender in Picture, Director, Actor, and possibly Supporting Actress. Another note – it’s not often (or maybe ever) you see a performer mentioned four times. That’s the case at the moment with the busy Sandra Hüller who is a legit threat twice in lead Actress and supporting.

    You can expect these posts to hit the blog every couple of weeks until it becomes weekly. This should occur when festival season goes into overdrive in last summer/early fall.

    BEST PICTURE

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. The Odyssey

    2. Project Hail Mary

    3. Wild Horse Nine

    4. Digger

    5. Fjord

    6. No One Cares

    7. All of a Sudden

    8. Fatherland

    9. The Social Reckoning

    10. Dune: Part Three

    Other Possibilities:

    11. Narnia: The Magican’s Nephew

    12. A Place in Hell

    13. A Long Winter

    14. The Entertainment System is Down

    15. Being Heumann

    16. Cry to Heaven

    17. Josephine

    18. Werwulf

    19. The Adventures of Cliff Booth

    20. Michael

    21. Paper Tiger

    22. Saturn Return

    23. Sense and Sensibility

    24. Jack of Spades

    25. Behemoth!

    BEST DIRECTOR

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey

    2. Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Digger

    3. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary

    4. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine

    5. Cristian Mingiu, Fjord

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden

    7. Pawel Pawlikowski, Fatherland

    8. Jesse Eisenberg, No One Cares

    9. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three

    10. Greta Gerwig, Narnia: The Magician’s Nephew

    11. Ruben Östlund, The Entertainment System is Down

    12. Tom Ford, Cry to Heaven

    13. Aaron Sorkin, The Social Reckoning

    14. Robert Eggers, Werwulf

    15. David Fincher, The Adventures of Cliff Booth

    BEST ACTRESS

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Renate Reinsve, Fjord

    2. Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning

    3. Julianne Moore, No One Cares

    4. Sandra Hüller, Fatherland

    5. Michelle Williams, A Place in Hell

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden

    7. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann

    8. Mason Reeves, Josephine

    9. Sophie Okenedo, Clarissa

    10. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie

    11. Sandra Hüller, Rose

    12. Lily Gladstone, The Memory Police

    13. Rachel Brosnahan, Saturn Return

    14. Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility

    15. Amy Adams, At the Sea

    BEST ACTOR

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Tom Cruise, Digger

    2. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary

    3. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine

    4. Sebastian Stan, Fjord

    5. Hanns Zischler, Fatherland

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Matt Damon, The Odyssey

    7. Robert Aramayo, I Swear

    8. Dominic Sessa, Tony

    9. Nicholas Hoult, Cry to Heaven

    10. Jafaar Jackson, Michael

    11. Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Three

    12. Pedro Pascal, Behemoth!

    13. Brad Pitt, The Adventures of Cliff Booth

    14. Charles Melton, Saturn Return

    15. John Turturro, The Only Pickpocket Living in New York

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine

    2. Mariana Di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine

    3. Halle Bailey, No One Cares

    4. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey

    5. Tao Okamoto, All of a Sudden

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Sandra Hüller, Digger

    7. Daisy Edgar-Jones, A Place in Hell

    8.. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary

    9. Caitriona Balfe, A Long Winter

    10. Scarlett Johansson, Paper Tiger

    11. Wunmi Mosaku, The Social Reckoning

    12. Kirsten Dunst, The Entertainment System is Down

    13. Gemma Chan, Josephine

    14. Frances McDormand, Jack of Spades

    15. Elizabeth Debicki, The Adventures of Cliff Booth

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Paul Giamatti, No One Cares

    2. John Goodman, Digger

    3. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine

    4. Colman Domingo, Michael

    5. Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine

    7. Andrew Scott, A Place in Hell

    8. Tom Holland, The Odyssey

    9. Mark Ruffalo, Being Heumann

    10. D’Pharaoh Woon-A-Tai, A Long Winter

    11. Jesse Plemons, Digger

    12. Channing Tatum, Josephine

    13. David Oyelowo, Clarissa

    14. Daniel Brühl, The Entertainment System is Down

    15. Riz Ahmed, Digger

    99th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Actor

    And we are off to the races with my first Oscar predictions for the 99th Academy Awards.

    We are a couple weeks removed from the 98th ceremony so let us begin some ridiculously early speculation! These are my inaugural glimpses at the four acting derbies, Director, and Picture. They will unfold on the blog over the next few days. I already posted my take in the supporting fields and they can be found here:

    99th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Supporting Actress
    99th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Supporting Actor

    We arrive at Best Actor. When I did my first picks for last year’s race, I correctly named one of the eventual five nominees and that was Timothée Chalamet for Marty Supreme. In Other Possibilities, I identified Leonardo DiCaprio in One Battle After Another. At that early juncture, I did not list the eventual winner Michael B. Jordan (Sinners), Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon), or Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent).

    Let’s get some caveats out of the way… it’s early. Some movies listed are likely to be pushed back or simply not turn out to be awards contenders. Actors listed here could end up being campaigned in supporting. And there will be movies we’re not even anticipating that will rise up with performances currently not on the radar.

    For this premiere post, it’s probable that we already know one member of the quintet and that’s Ryan Gosling in Project Hail Mary. His film is a box office juggernaut and he has to carry much of the running time by himself. If he makes the cut, it would mark his fourth attempt at the gold statue behind lead noms for Half Nelson and La La Land and a supporting nod for Barbie.

    He’s not the only star potentially in line for a fourth mention. The same holds true for Tom Cruise in Alejandro Gonzales Inarritu’s Digger. He won an honorary Oscar at the 98th ceremony, but is 0 for 3 in the competitive races are being up in lead for Born on the Fourth of July and Jerry Maguire and in supporting for Magnolia.

    We aren’t finished yet talking about thespians getting their fourth nominations. Matt Damon contended for lead in Good Will Hunting and The Martian and a supporting turn in Invictus. His 4th try could come via Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey.

    John Malkovich is probably going lead for Martin McDonagh’s Wild Horse Nine after two supporting attempts for Places in the Heart and In the Line of Fire. He could make it in for the first time in 33 years.

    For my fifth pick, I’m perhaps going out a limb and selecting Robert Aramayo (I Swear) who pulled off a BAFTA upset in Best Actor weeks ago. It comes out stateside in a couple of weeks and could have enough staying power for the BAFTA recipient to stake a claim. I’ll admit this a long shot projection, but hey it’s early right?

    The speculation will continue in earnest during the weeks and months ahead, but here’s the first snapshot for Best Actor. Best Actress up next!

    TODD’S FIRST OSCAR PREDICTIONS FOR BEST ACTOR AT THE 99TH ACADEMY AWARDS

    Robert Aramayo, I Swear

    Tom Cruise, Digger

    Matt Damon, The Odyssey

    Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary

    John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine

    Other Possibilities:

    Adam Driver, Paper Tiger

    Andrew Garfield, Artificial

    Nicholas Hoult, Cry to Heaven

    Jaafar Jackson, Michael

    Josh O’Connor, Jack of Spades

    Pedro Pascal, Behemoth!

    Will Poulter, Saturn Return

    Dominic Sessa, Tony

    Sebastian Stan, Fjord

    Hanns Zischler, Fatherland

    98th Academy Awards Reaction

    After months of pontificating and countless posts on what might happen, the 98th Academy Awards are in the rearview with one movie being the clear winner. That’s One Battle After Another from Paul Thomas Anderson. PTA, with three decades of giving us great movies, went into the evening 0 for 11 in previous ceremonies. He is now a three-time Oscar recipient with Battle collecting six of its thirteen nominations.

    Overall I went 16 for 21 in my picks. It was a night of no major upsets. For the six categories I got wrong, my runner-up emerged victorious. And, yes, I whiffed on the big one. I thought Ryan Coogler’s Sinners might squeak by with a slightly surprising victory. That Best Picture honor went to the favored Battle.

    I correctly forecasted PTA’s latest for Director, Supporting Actor (a no-show Sean Penn becoming just the eighth thespian to nab 3 acting gold statues), and Adapted Screenplay. Yet Battle‘s gains were losses for Sinners elsewhere in my projections. I had Sinners taking Film Editing and Casting but it was Battle.

    In Cinematography, I went with Battle and the Academy rolled with Sinners. This provided some history with Autumn Durald Arkapaw becoming the first female to win that prize. Sinners would take home three more awards which I predicted – Michael B. Jordan in Best Actor in a contest where Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme) was the frontrunner until the past couple of weeks, Original Screenplay, and Original Score. There’s little doubt that Sinners was #2 in ballots for BP.

    Here’s where I else I got it right and we’ll start with the obvious. Jessie Buckley (Hamnet) made it clean sweep for Best Actress. Sentimental Value is your International Feature Film with KPop Demon Hunters grabbing Animated Feature and Original Song (“Golden”).

    Frankenstein was successful in its trio of tech races (Costume Design, Makeup and Hairstyling, Production Design). F1 placed first in Sound with Avatar: Fire and Ash making it three in a row for James Cameron’s franchise in Visual Effects.

    Where I got it wrong is my Sinners coattails caused me to predict Wunmi Mosaku, but it was Critics Choice and SAG Actor winner Amy Madigan (Weapons) in Supporting Actress. Her podium trip comes 40 years after her first nomination for Twice in a Lifetime. BAFTA documentary winner Mr. Nobody Against Putin is now the top Oscar doc over The Perfect Neighbor.

    Fun fact regarding precursors: the Golden Globes only matched this year’s Oscars in the acting races at a 1 for 4 margin (Jessie Buckley only). SAG Actor? 4 for 4.

    As for the ceremony itself? Conan O’Brien is a solid host though his material seemed to be stronger last year. The show (no surprise here) was a bit of a slog. The highlight might have been the dignified In Memoriam with tributes to legends lost in the past 12 months including Rob Reiner, Diane Keaton, and Robert Redford.

    For those keeping score, here’s the final victory tally:

    6 Wins

    One Battle After Another

    4 Wins

    Sinners

    3 Wins

    Frankenstein

    2 Wins

    KPop Demon Hunters

    1 Win

    Avatar: Fire and Ash, F1, Hamnet, Mr. Nobody Against Putin, Sentimental Value, Weapons

    The 98th Academy Awards will be known for PTA finally getting one Oscar after another after another. Keep an eye on the blog as speculation will soon begin on the 99th…