Wildwood Box Office Prediction

Stop-motion animated fantasy Wildwood is the latest effort for distributor Laika and their first this decade. Directed by Travis Knight, the voice cast includes Peyton Elizabeth Lee, Jacob Tremblay, Carey Mulligan, Mahershala Ali, Awkwafina, Angela Bassett, Jake Johnson, Charlie Day, Amandla Stenberg, Jemaine Clement, Tom Waits, and Richard E. Grant. Following its premiere at the London Film Festival, it hits domestic screens on October 23rd.

Critics are on it side and it could be a frontrunner for Best Animated Feature prize at the Oscars. Rotten Tomatoes is at 100% with 86 on Metacritic. Laika’s projects are typically acclaimed and all five previous features have been Academy nominated in its genre category. That hasn’t always translated to box office dollars stateside.

In 2016, Kubo and the Two Strings (also directed by Knight) debuted with $12.6 million and that’s under what predecessors Coraline, ParaNorman, and The Boxtrolls started off with. That trio all premiered between $14-17 million. The last Laika tale, 2019’s Missing Link, was a major commercial failure with $5.9 million out of the gate.

I’m expecting Wildwood to do better, but not much better.

Wildwood opening weekend prediction: $7.2 million

For my Clayface prediction, click here:

Clayface Box Office Prediction

For my Klara and the Sun prediction, click here:

Klara and the Sun Box Office Prediction

Oscar Predictions: Wildwood

Stop-motion indie animation studio Laika is 5 for 5 when it comes to nominations for Best Animated Feature and 0 for 5 in podium trips. Each time they have lost to Disney. In 2009, Laika’s inaugural project Coraline went down to Up. Three years later, ParaNorman fell short to Brave while 2014’s The Boxtrolls couldn’t beat out Big Hero 6. In 2016, Kubo and the Two Strings didn’t catch Zootopia. Missing Link in 2019 was an honorable mention to Toy Story 4.

That dynamic may finally change in 2026. Travis Knight, who directed Kubo, is back with the studio (months after the live-action Masters of the Universe debacle) via Wildwood. The dark fantasy, based on a 2011 novel, has premiered at the London Film Festival and arrives theatrically on October 23rd. Voiceover artists include Peyton Elizabeth Lee, Jacob Tremblay, Carey Mulligan, Mahershala Ali, Awkwafina, Angela Bassett, Jake Johnson, Charlie Day, Amandla Stenberg, Jemaine Clement, Tom Waits, and Richard E. Grant.

For the last several weeks on the blog, I’ve had Wildwood listed at #1 in Animated Feature based mostly on hunch. There’s also the matter of Disney’s Toy Story 5 and Hoppers not seeming like win contenders. Early WOM from London encourages my notion. Rotten Tomatoes is at 100% with several reviews calling it Laika’s strongest entry thus far. I would be surprised if it didn’t remain my frontrunner in the animated field moving forward.

Can Wildwood branch out elsewhere? The short answer is yes. A solid campaign could open up Adapted Screenplay or Visual Effects. The score is being complimented and the Decemberists have an original song titled “The Better Part of Bravery”. I also could see this being a lone Animated Feature player and the first that gets past the Mouse House. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Your Mother Your Mother Your Mother

Director Bassam Tariq and two-time Oscar winner Mahershala Ali were supposed to team up for the MCU’s Blade reboot but the project never materialized. They did end up collaborating on Your Mother Your Mother Your Mother which has premiered at the Toronto Film Festival before its September 25th stateside bow.

The action thriller features Ali as a hitman in a tale of faith and grief with a supporting cast including John Cho, Giancarlo Esposito, Abubakr Ali, Tramell Tillman, Tiffany Boone, and Laith Nakli. Early reviews are positive with 100% on Rotten Tomatoes and 82 on Metacritic.

Ali is receiving kudos for his headlining role. A decade ago, he took home Best Supporting Actor for Moonlight and followed that up two years later with a victory in the same category for Green Book. Despite praise for this leading man part, I don’t believe the Amazon MGM production is one that awards voters will take note of. That’s unless critics groups really get behind the performance of its lead. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Jurassic World Rebirth

None of the five follow-ups to Steven Spielberg’s 1993 classic Jurassic Park generated much awards attention. Will that change with the sixth? Jurassic World Rebirth hits theaters on Wednesday with Gareth Edwards handling directorial duties and Scarlett Johansson, Mahershala Ali, Jonathan Bailey, Rupert Friend, and Manuel Garcia-Rulfo starring.

The original over three decades ago won all 3 Oscars it was up for – Visual Effects, Sound Editing, and Sound Mixing (back when the sound races were separated). 1997 sequel The Lost World: Jurassic Park landed a sole VE nom, but lost to Titanic. The next four entries – Jurassic Park III, Jurassic World, Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom, Jurassic World: Dominion – garnered a total of zero Academy mentions.

Reviews for Rebirth are mixed to negative. While certainly stronger than Dominion‘s 29% Rotten Tomatoes rating and 38 Metacritic, the 56% RT and 53 Meta are nothing to roar about. Edwards has seen two pics in his filmography contend in Visual Effects – 2016’s Rogue One: A Star Wars Story and 2023’s The Creator. I doubt his first dino adventure will bring the series back into that category for the first time this century. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Jurassic World Rebirth Box Office Prediction

Jurassic World Rebirth looks to rule the Independence Day holiday frame beginning July 2nd. This is now the third iteration of the dino franchise that kicked off with 1993’s Jurassic Park from Steven Spielberg and the seventh entry overall. Gareth Edwards, no stranger to franchise fare with Godzilla and Rogue One: A Star Wars Story in his discography, directs. Scarlett Johansson headlines the cast that features Mahershala Ali, Jonathan Bailey, Rupert Friend, and Manuel Garcia-Rulfo.

The second Jurassic trilogy premiered in spectacular fashion a decade back when Jurassic World made $208 million out of the gate and $652 million domestically. The follow-ups performed well though with diminishing results. Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom in 2018 debuted at $148 million and $417 million overall. 2022’s Jurassic World: Dominion was barely behind at $145 million and $376 million in total.

I anticipate that Rebirth will continue the downward trend. When World opened 10 years ago, there was pent up anticipation for the franchise with a nostalgia factor in play. Such factors are diluted with only a three-year layover between entries. It doesn’t help that Dominion was generally considered a disappointment.

That means the streak of Jurassic tales making nine figures in the traditional weekend is endangered. I’ll say high 70s to low 80s is likelier. However, the five-day could top $130 million.

Jurassic World Rebirth opening weekend prediction: $80.8 million (Friday to Sunday); $133 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

Oscar Predictions: Leave the World Behind

Based on the well-regarded 2020 novel by Rumaan Alam, Leave the World Behind has premiered at the AFI Fest prior to its limited November 22nd theatrical run and December 8th Netflix bow. Sam Esmail directs the apocalyptic thriller starring Julia Roberts, Mahershala Ali, Ethan Hawke, Myha’la, Farrah Mackenzie, Charlie Evans, and Kevin Bacon.

Counting Barack and Michelle Obama among its executive producers, this looks to attract plenty of eyeballs during the holiday season. The small number of reviews so far are mostly complimentary (83% on Rotten Tomatoes) while not as strong as the source material’s notices.

Despite the awards friendly cast (Roberts won in 2000 for Erin Brockovich and Ali is a two-time recipient for 2016’s Moonlight and 2018’s Green Book), the chances for World being a contender are likely flatlined. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Best Picture 2018: The Final Five

We have reached 2018 in my posts speculating on a specific piece of Oscar history. As awards followers are aware, 2009 saw the Academy expand the Best Picture category from five movies to ten. That lasted for two years and in 2011, it switched to anywhere from 5-10 with 8 or 9 as the magic numbers for several years. In 2021, the number reverted back to a set ten.

What if that hadn’t happened? What if the BP derby had stayed at a quintet? What pictures would have made the cut? If you missed my write-ups centered on 2009-17, they are linked at the bottom of the post.

2018 is a tricky year to winnow down. In fact, all 8 nominees have strong cases to make the final five. Only one thing is for sure. Peter Farrelly’s Green Book is one of the five considering it won Best Picture. It stands as one of the more surprising (and derided) victors in recent years. The race relations drama went an impressive 3/5 on its nominations – taking Picture, Supporting Actor (Mahershala Ali), and Original Screenplay and missing Actor (Viggo Mortensen) and Film Editing.

So what of the other seven hopefuls? Here’s my speculation:

Black Panther

The only MCU flick (and for that matter comic book adaptation) to score a BP nom was Ryan Coogler’s phenomenon with Chadwick Boseman as the title character. Its seven nominations included three wins for Score, Production Design, and Costume Design.