Continuing with my initial Oscar predictions for the 2019 season, we arrive at Best Supporting Actor! If you happened to miss Supporting Actress, you can find it here:
As mentioned in the previous posts, these are the pre-festival projections where there’s a whole lot of guesswork involved. However, my five performers that I called out in my initial 2018 predictions yielded a strong three of the eventual five nominees: Adam Driver in BlacKkKlansman, Sam Elliot in AStarIsBorn, and Sam Rockwell in Vice. In the ten other possibilities, I did name nominee Richard E. Grant in CanYouEverForgiveMe? The only actor I didn’t list was eventual winner Mahershala Ali for GreenBook.
A couple of quick notes: Brad Pitt is likely a shoo-in for a nod. There seems to be a question as to whether Tom Hanks will be classified as lead or supporting for his role as Mr. Rogers in ABeautifulDayintheNeighborhood. I’m listing him as a possibility for both categories until it’s official.
GreenBook does represent DrivingMissDaisy in reverse with its story. Like that 1989 film, it also has a Best Picture Oscar and an unexpected one at that. This isn’t in the top-tier of movies to receive that honor, but it is an often effective and very well-acted tale of an unlikely friendship.
Viggo Mortensen is Tony “Lip” Vallelonga, a bouncer at the famed Copacabana in New York City circa 1962. The club is closing for renovations over the holidays. Hungry for work (and literally hungry all the time), he accepts a job as chauffeur for notable concert pianist Don Shirley (Mahershala Ali). Doctor Shirley lives above another Big Apple landmark – Carnegie Hall.
This union of an unrefined Italian-American and erudite African-American brings them to the Deep South. The era often puts the boss in Colored Only hotels and the employee in nicer ones. The title refers to an actual book which instructed black travelers where they could stay.
Tony and Shirley are real life figures as well. As portrayed by Mortensen and Ali, the actors form a genuine chemistry. The eight week tour is scheduled to end just before Christmas and Tony is determined to make it home for the holiday with his wife (Linda Cardellini) and large brood. Shirley is a loner with loose connections to family. In this sense, the plot actually resembles Planes, Trains, andAutomobiles – albeit with less comedic overtones.
GreenBook is directed by Peter Farrelly, who’s only known for material meant to make you laugh (DumbandDumber and There’sSomethingAboutMary are the best of them). There are light moments, especially in the first half. The screenplay grows gradually more serious as the duo’s trek takes them to Alabama for the finale and the racist traditions become more pronounced.
This picture doesn’t break any new ground with its subject matter. It’s more of an amiable concentration on this alliance with two fine performers playing them. Those looking for something more weighty might be disappointed, but I felt the leads cause this to be a ride worth taking.
In the 21st century cinematic universe, the famed web slinger has been reinvented on a number of occasions – from Tobey Maguire to Andrew Garfield to Tom Holland. Spider–Man: IntotheSpider–Verse is the first one that feels truly inventive. Anyone thinking this animated experience would be a sub par spin-off or money grab will find themselves sorely mistaken. This iteration of the iconic hero has a lot of heart, plenty of action, and a warped sense of humor that elicits genuine laughs. Directors Bob Perischetti, Peter Ramsey, and Rodney Rothman (who co-wrote the screenplay along with Phil Lord) have drawn up what is probably the most satisfying Spidey pic on its own terms.
The picture posits the theory that our title character does his Spidey thing in multiple dimensions and in different forms than just Peter Parker. These characters are familiar to fans of the Marvel Comics and even includes Spider-Ham, representing the hero in pig form. He’s here and he’s fabulous. Our primary Spidey here is Miles (voiced by Shameik Moore), a Brooklyn teen with a police officer father and a potentially shady uncle that he admires. Miles attends a prep school and feels lost in his adolescence just like Peter Parker did. He’s a fan of Spider-Man, who is currently fighting Big Apple crime in the manner we’re accustomed to. That’s until bad guy Kingpin (Liev Schrieber) knocks him off, but not before Miles get a radioactive bite that gives him the well-known powers.
What follows is a visually splendid adventure where it’s clear that the makers really adore the character. At the same time, they take him in unforeseen directions that perhaps only the animated format could allow. Miles’s Spidey teams with an aging and out of shape Peter Parker (Jake Johnson) from a different “verse”, along with Spider-Woman (Hailee Steinfeld) and the aforementioned Ham version. There’s others, but part of the fun is watching them appear without me spoiling it.
Plenty of superhero movies take themselves quite seriously and many have succeeded with that tone. GuardiansoftheGalaxy and Deadpool introduced a different dynamic that is evident here. Yet Spider–Verse is not derivative. It manages to take one of the most repeated story arcs in the genre and cleverly turn it on its head. I enjoyed it immensely. The possibilities are many for this particular universe to continue and I’m up for it.
It was an evening in which the Academy was generous with their selections – so much so that all eight Best Picture nominees took at least one gold statue. It was also a night where many of the viewers (including me) may have pondered, “Maybe we don’t need a host after all…”
As far as the Oscars go, the ceremony moved rather briskly with a focus on the categories and minimal filler. The telecast saved the surprises for the end portion and they were fairly significant.
I went 14 for 21 in my picks. The big winner would have to be GreenBook, which took Best Picture, Supporting Actor (Mahershala Ali), and Original Screenplay. Its win in the top race was a bit unexpected as Roma had front-runner status. Alfonso Cuaron did win for his direction and the Mexican drama emerged victorious as Foreign Language Film and for its Cinematography.
The acting races went as planned until the last one. Rami Malek (BohemianRhapsody), Regina King (IfBealeStreetCouldTalk), and Ali won. Actress was another story as Glenn Close (TheWife), after taking multiple precursors, lost to Olivia Colman’s work in TheFavourite. Her speech was probably the funniest and most genuine of the evening.
It was a good night all around for Rhapsody, which also took Editing and both Sound races. Same for BlackPanther, which was honored for Production Design, Costume Design, and Score.
Other winners:
Adapted Screenplay – BlacKkKlansman, marking Spike Lee’s first competitive Oscar victory
As mentioned, I didn’t miss having a host one bit, but Melissa McCarthy would be fine by me if she accepted next year.
In an awards show where musical performances can often be forgettable, the duet between Bradley Cooper and Lady Gaga was fantastic. The Queen opening was a pleasure to witness as well.
2018 definitely proved itself to be a year where voters had no clear favorite to sweep anything. The wealth was spread.
And that’s my take! Keep an eye on this here blog for many posts to come guesstimating on the next Oscars!
We’ve had months of predictions and endless speculation on this blog about the 2018 Oscars and now it’s come to this. On Sunday, the 91st edition of the Academy Awards will air with your host…
As you’ve likely read, there actually is no emcee for this year’s ceremony. I’m not here to write about that. I’m here to make my final picks for the winners! Let’s break down each race one by one, shall we? And, of course, I’ll have a piece up Sunday night with my thoughts on how it all went down.
Analysis: First things first. It’s extremely rare that the winner here doesn’t have its director nominated. Therefore, two films that might have served as the biggest competition to Roma could now be seen as longer shots: AStarIsBorn and GreenBook. You could correctly point out that Argo achieved a victory just six years ago without Ben Affleck getting an individual nod. However, it had been 23 years prior to that (DrivingMissDaisy) when it had occurred previously. BlacKkKlansman and TheFavourite are upset possibilities, but the smart money is on Alfonso Cuaron’s Netflix Mexican drama and it would mark the streaming service’s first win in the big race.
Predicted Winner: Roma
BestDirector
Nominees: Alfonso Cuaron (Roma), Yorgos Lanthimos (TheFavourite), Spike Lee (BlacKkKlansman), Adam McKay (Vice), Pawel Pawlikowski (ColdWar)
Analysis: I feel even more confident that Cuaron will take the gold here, even if Roma somehow comes up short in Picture. He’s run the table on precursors, including the DGA prize. It would be his second win in five years, after winning for 2013’s Gravity.
Predicted Winner: Cuaron
BestActor
Nominees: Christian Bale (Vice), Bradley Cooper (AStarIsBorn), Willem Dafoe (AtEternity’sGate), Rami Malek (BohemianRhapsody), Viggo Mortensen (GreenBook)
Analysis: This is a tough one as Malek and Bale have split a number of precursors. With the SAG Awards, I deemed it a coin flip and picked Malek. I was right. At the Golden Globes, they both won due to category splits. I won’t be surprised to see either win, but my 50/50 feeling going with Malek worked before
Predicted Winner: Malek
BestActress
Nominees: Yalitza Aparicio (Roma), Glenn Close (TheWife), Olivia Colman (TheFavourite), Lady Gaga (AStarIsBorn), Melissa McCarthy (CanYouEverForgiveMe?)
Analysis: Aparicio and McCarthy should be honored to be nominated. Colman and Gaga are threats, but Close has fared best in previous ceremonies and there’s the fact that she’s a highly respected performer who’s yet to win despite multiple nods.
Predicted Winner: Close
BestSupportingActor
Nominees: Mahershala Ali (GreenBook), Adam Driver (BlacKkKlansman), Sam Elliot (AStarIsBorn), Richard E. Grant (CanYouEverForgiveMe?), Sam Rockwell (Vice)
Analysis: This category features the last two Oscar winners as Ali won in 2016 for Moonlight and Rockwell took it last year for ThreeBillboardsOutsideEbbing, Missouri. They have far different chances to become two-time victors. Ali is the front-runner. Supporting Actor has seen upsets, but Ali looks strong.
Predicted Winner: Ali
BestSupportingActress
Nominees: Amy Adams (Vice), Marina de Tavira (Roma), Regina King (IfBealeStreetCouldTalk), Emma Stone (TheFavourite), Rachel Weisz (TheFavourite)
Analysis: Even though King didn’t get a SAG nod, they bestowed their award to Emily Blunt for AQuietPlace and she’s not even nominated. An Adams name call is feasible since she’s never won, but King will probably be crowned Sunday evening.
Analysis: This one is legitimately difficult and I think you can make a case for all of them. Roma is a distinct possibility as the Picture favorite and GreenBook could make a showing. Yet my slight favorite here is TheFavourite.
Analysis: This could be interesting. As revealed above, Roma is my Picture pick. So it’s automatic that it wins here right? Not so fast. ColdWar could get the consolation prize and I feel that’s even more possible since it nabbed a surprise nod for director Pawel Pawlikowski. I’m tempted to pick it, but I’ll say Roma manages the double win. However, if you wish to get creative in your office pool, this could be the race to do it.
Analysis: Pixar has dominated this field for years. In most years, it would be risky to bet against them – therefore Incredibles2. This might be the year to do it as Spider–Man arrived late in the year, swung the momentum, and swept the precursors.
Analysis: One of the biggest shockers when nominations came out was the omission of Mr. Rogers doc Won’tYouBeMyNeighbor?. I likely would’ve picked it to win had it been nominated. Now I believe this is between Solo and RBG. Reverence for the latter could swing it that way, but I’ll give a small edge to Solo.
Analysis: BohemianRhapsody won the significant precursor for its branch and TheFavourite or BlacKkKlansman could factor in as well. My gut says Vice may get this one, however.
Analysis: Even though Star didn’t get in the other Sound race, Mixing seems like where it could be picked. I wouldn’t count out FirstMan, but I’ll guess Star wins here.
Analysis: It was a bit surprising that BlackPanther missed the cut here. Its MCU counterpart Infinity is possible, but I’ll say this is the sole victory for FirstMan.
Analysis: Another chance for Panther lies here, but I’m going with a coin flip between BlacKkKlansman and BealeStreet.
Predicted Winner: IfBealeStreetCouldTalk
BestOriginalSong
Nominees: “All the Stars” from BlackPanther, “I’ll Fight” from RBG, “The Place Where Lost Things Go” from MaryPoppinsReturns, “Shallow” from AStarIsBorn, “When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings” from TheBalladofBusterScruggs
Analysis: My last race is the easiest. “Shallow” is the massive favorite here.
Predicted Winner: “Shallow” fromAStarIsBorn
And there you have it. Enjoy the show Sunday night!
Our British friends had their version of the Oscars today with the BAFTA Awards. The ceremony has a checkered history with its American counterpart in matching wins, particularly with Best Picture.
In this decade, the BAFTA and Oscar victor for the top prize matched from 2010-2013. However, the shows have honored different recipients for the last four years. The Picture winner tonight is Alfonso Cuarón’s Mexican drama Roma. Given the recent BAFTA history, perhaps that isn’t a great sign for its Academy prospects. Yet it’s performed extremely well with other precursors and likely remains the front-runner for that other awards program in two weeks. Cuarón also took Best Director and the BAFTA/Oscar for that race has lined up for the previous four years.
Rami Malek won Best Actor for BohemianRhapsody and that could have him sitting well for Oscar as the BAFTA winner has matched Oscar seven out of eight years this decade. I give him an edge over Christian Bale in Vice.
That seven for eight statistic also applies to Best Actress and things got a little interesting today as Olivia Colman (TheFavourite) took the trophy instead of Glenn Close (TheWife) and Lady Gaga (AStarIsBorn). I still think Close is the Academy’s favorite, but Colman is making a potential run.
The supporting races furthered a strong front-runner and gave another a first win. Mahershala Ali (GreenBook) has made it a clean sweep in Supporting Actor in the precursors and he’s the heavy expected Oscar winner. For Supporting Actress, Regina King (IfBealeStreetCouldTalk) wasn’t nominated here, but remains a slight favorite two Sunday’s from now. BAFTA’s favorite, however, was from TheFavourite and it was Rachel Weisz picking up her first significant trophy.
Keep an eye on the blog for my final predictions for the Oscars!
Based on a popular Japanese graphic novel, the sci-fi action spectacle Alita: BattleAngel is finally ready for release next Thursday. Robert Rodriguez serves as director with a screenplay from another well-known auteur by the name of James Cameron (as well as Laeta Kalogridis). Rosa Salazar provides the voice and motion capture work for the title character and other cast members include Christoph Waltz, Jennifer Connelly, Mahershala Ali, Ed Skrein, and Jackie Earle Haley.
Alita was originally slated for release last summer before being pushed back to December. The folks at 20th Century Fox moved it from that crowded marketplace to Valentine’s Day. However, other movies should still be a factor. TheLegoMovie2: TheSecondPart will likely top the charts in its second frame while horror sequel HappyDeathDay2U opens and provides some direct audience competition.
The reported budget here is rumored to be possibly $200 million. The visuals have been praised while the film itself has had a mixed critical reaction (57% currently on Rotten Tomatoes). Alita is tracking to be a disappointment stateside considering the price tag and I agree with that assessment. I’ll say it manages high teens to low 20s for the traditional Friday to Monday portion of the Presidents Day frame, which should mean mid 20s when factoring in the Thursday gross.
Alita: BattleAngel opening weekend prediction: $19.7 million (Friday to Monday); $24.8 million (Thursday to Monday)
James Cameron is no stranger to Oscar attention with Titanic winning Best Picture 21 years ago and Avatar picking up a slew of nominations in 2009. In two weeks, he serves as co-writer for Alita: BattleAngel along with Laeta Kologridis. It’s directed by Robert Rodriguez. The pic is based on a well-known series of cyberpunk graphic novels from Japan. Rosa Salazar voices the title character and provides motion capture work for her movements in this mix of live and CG action.
Reviews are out and they’re skewing negative, along with some positive here and there. The Rotten Tomatoes score is currently 44%. A lot of the critics are particularly picking apart the screenplay and that’s not an uncommon knock on Cameron’s writing.
Alita comes with a reported budget upwards of $200 million and it’s being seen as a potential costly flop stateside (foreign grosses could be a different story). While this clearly won’t contend for major categories in awards season, the state of the art visuals have been praised. And it’s worth noting that Cameron’s directorial efforts Aliens, TheAbyss, Terminator2: JudgmentDay, Titanic, and Avatar all won Best Visual Effects at the Oscars.
That said, there’s plenty of eye-popping blockbuster feasts on the schedule in 2019 (Avengers: Endgame and the next StarWars included). With the possibility of negative buzz enveloping it, this may not even be a slam dunk in that category. In that sense, it could be similar to 2017’s ValerianandtheCityofaThousandPlanets, which also had poor word-of-mouth and missed out in its most obvious slot for recognition. If this manages a nod, the two Sound races are possible as well.
The wealth was spread this evening at the 25th Annual Screen Actors Guild Awards as It provided more clues to how Oscar voters may choose their winners in February. I went 4 for 5 in my predictions and I’m pretty pleased with that because some of these races were quite unpredictable.
The miss was indeed a surprise as Emily Blunt took Supporting Actress for her work in AQuietPlace. She wasn’t even nominated for an Oscar and the exclusion of Regina King (IfBealeStreetCouldTalk) here was significant. Ironically, the Blunt victory over the Academy nominated Amy Adams in Vice or Emma Stone and Rachel Weisz (TheFavourite) may give King a boost come Oscar time.
As for the other acting categories, it was another trophy for Mahershala Ali in GreenBook for Supporting Actor as he continues to solidify his status as the front-runner. Same goes for Glenn Close in TheWife in lead actress. In lead actor, that’s a bit murkier as Rami Malek took the Actor for BohemianRhapsody. I still consider the Oscar race close between him and Christian Bale in Vice. Bradley Cooper’s chances for AStarisBorn have dimmed even more.
It was a bad night for that picture as it went 0 for 4. The top Ensemble race went to the sprawling cast of BlackPanther. What does that do for its Oscar chances? Truth be told, I think not much as the victor here often doesn’t match the Academy’s Best Picture recipient.
There’s your recap, folks! Now it’s onto more speculation for Oscar…
The 25th Annual Screen Actors Guild Award air tomorrow evening and they could shed some light on which performers are looking more solid for the Oscar in a few weeks. Let’s break down the top races with my winner predictions, shall we?
OutstandingPerformancebyaCastinaMotionPicture
The Nominees: BlackPanther, BlacKkKlansman, BohemianRhapsody, CrazyRichAsians, AStarisBorn
Analysis: It’s important to note that the SAG ceremony honors casts and not the “Best Picture” like other shows. This is about the ensemble. AStarisBorn is really concentrated on three performances (Bradley Cooper, Lady Gaga, Sam Elliot) and they’re all up for their individual races, where they all have a shot of winning. I believe it’s entirely possible, however, that the trio also all lose and this could be a considerable consolation prize. The other four films have more sprawling casts. That’s especially true for BlackPanther and I’ll say the voters ultimately reward in a different category to project.
Winner Prediction: BlackPanther
OutstandingPerformancebyaMaleActorinaLeadingRole
The Nominees: Christian Bale (Vice), Bradley Cooper (AStarisBorn), Rami Malek (BohemianRhapsody), Viggo Mortensen (GreenBook), John David Washington (BlacKkKlansman)
Analysis: As mentioned, Cooper is a possibility. Yet he’s come up empty in other precursors. This could come down to the two Golden Globe recipients for their categories – Bale and Malek. I think it’s a coin flip to be honest. I’ll give the latter a razor-thin edge.
The Nominees: Emily Blunt (MaryPoppinsReturns), Glenn Close (TheWife), Olivia Colman (TheFavourite), Lady Gaga (AStarisBorn), Melissa McCarthy (CanYouEverForgiveMe?)
Analysis: Gaga is the only actress whose picture is also nominated. Her tie with Glenn Close at the Critics Choice Awards made things even murkier. Colman is a possibility here, but I’ll say this branch of actors give it to Close after decades of memorable performances.
The Nominees: Mahershala Ali (GreenBook), Timothee Chalamet (BeautifulBoy), Adam Driver (BlacKkKlansman), Sam Elliot (AStarisBorn), Richard E. Grant (CanYouEverForgiveMe?)
Analysis: I wouldn’t count out Elliot, but Ali appears to be the front-runner in all these shows. I think his streak continues.
The Nominees: Amy Adams (Vice), Emily Blunt (AQuietPlace), Margot Robbie (MaryQueenofScots), Emma Stone (TheFavourite), Rachel Weisz (TheFavourite)
Analysis: A fascinating race as Oscar favorite Regina King’s work in IfBealeStreetCouldTalk was surprisingly snubbed. Blunt is a double nominee, but stands little chance of emerging victorious in either spot. TheFavourite ladies could split votes. Robbie didn’t land an Oscar nod and is a long shot. That leaves Adams, who could be a double winner tomorrow with her work in HBO’s SharpObjects.
Winner Prediction: Adams
And there you have it! I’ll have a recap up after the program airs!
