Well, folks, this is it. After months of weekly predictions and dozens of Oscar Watch posts, it’s time for my final Oscar picks in each feature film category (with an alternate listed as well). Nominations will be out Tuesday morning. I’ve used thousands of words to analyze the 2018 race and here’s the ones that count.
I’ll have analysis up Tuesday evening with how I did. Here we go!
Picture
AStarIsBorn
BlacKkKlansman
BlackPanther
BohemianRhapsody
TheFavourite
GreenBook
IfBealeStreetCouldTalk
Roma
Vice
Alternate – FirstMan
Director
Bradley Cooper, AStarIsBorn
Alfonso Cuaron, Roma
Peter Farrelly, GreenBook
Yorgos Lanthimos, TheFavourite
Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman
Alternate – Adam McKay, Vice
Actor
Christian Bale, Vice
Bradley Cooper, AStarIsBorn
Ethan Hawke, FirstReformed
Rami Malek, BohemianRhapsody
Viggo Mortensen, GreenBook
Alternate – John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman
Actress
Yalitza Aparicio, Roma
Glenn Close, TheWife
Olivia Colman, TheFavourite
Lady Gaga, AStarIsBorn
Melissa McCarthy, CanYouEverForgiveMe?
Alternate – Emily Blunt, MaryPoppinsReturns
SupportingActor
Mahershala Ali, GreenBook
Timothee Chalamet, BeautifulBoy
Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman
Sam Elliot, AStarIsBorn
Richard E. Grant, CanYouEverForgiveMe?
Alternate – Sam Rockwell, Vice
SupportingActress
Amy Adams, Vice
Claire Foy, FirstMan
Regina King, IfBealeStreetCouldTalk
Emma Stone, TheFavourite
Rachel Weisz, TheFavourite
Alternate – Marina de Tavira, Roma
AdaptedScreenplay
AStarIsBorn
BlacKkKlansman
BlackPanther
CanYouEverForgiveMe?
IfBealeStreetCouldTalk
Alternate – FirstMan
OriginalScreenplay
TheFavourite
FirstReformed
GreenBook
Roma
Vice
Alternate – EighthGrade
ForeignLanguageFilm
Burning
Capernaum
ColdWar
Roma
Shoplifters
Alternate – NeverLookAway
AnimatedFeature
Incredibles2
IsleofDogs
Mirai
RalphBreakstheInternet
Spider–Man: IntotheSpider–Verse
Alternate – EarlyMan
DocumentaryFeature
FreeSolo
MindingtheGap
RBG
ThreeIdenticalStrangers
Won’tYouBeMyNeighbor?
Alternate – Shirkers
FilmEditing
AStarIsBorn
TheFavourite
FirstMan
Roma
Vice
Alternate – BlackPanther
Cinematography
ColdWar
TheFavourite
FirstMan
IfBealeStreetCouldTalk
Roma
Alternate – AStarIsBorn
ProductionDesign
BlackPanther
CrazyRichAsians
TheFavourite
MaryPoppinsReturns
Roma
Alternate – FirstMan
CostumeDesign
BlackPanther
BohemianRhapsody
TheFavourite
MaryPoppinsReturns
MaryQueenofScots
Alternate – CrazyRichAsians
MakeupandHairstyling
BlackPanther
Border
Vice
Alternate – MaryQueenofScots
SoundEditing
AQuietPlace
AStarIsBorn
BlackPanther
FirstMan
Roma
Alternate – BohemianRhapsody
SoundMixing
AQuietPlace
AStarIsBorn
BohemianRhapsody
FirstMan
Roma
Alternate – MaryPoppinsReturns
VisualEffects
Avengers: InfinityWar
BlackPanther
FirstMan
MaryPoppinsReturns
ReadyPlayerOne
Alternate – Solo: AStarWarsStory
Score
BlacKkKlansman
BlackPanther
FirstMan
IfBealeStreetCouldTalk
MaryPoppinsReturns
Alternate – IsleofDogs
Song
“All the Stars” from BlackPanther
“Girl in the Movies” from Dumplin
“I’ll Fight” from RBG
”Shallow” from AStarIsBorn
“Trip a Little Light Fantastic” from MaryPoppinsReturns
Alternate – “The Place Where Lost Things Go” from MaryPoppinsReturns
And my picks equate to the following movies getting these numbers in terms of nods:
It’s been two weeks since I’ve made Oscar predictions and it’s fair to say a lot has happened since then. The show never did find a host, but a host of significant precursors happened. There were the Golden Globes and Critics Choice Awards. The Directors Guild named their five nominees and they typically nail four of the five eventual nominees in that race. The last 14 days of action have changed my #1 rankings in some very big categories:
After consistently being ranked at #1, AStarIsBorn now falls to second behind Roma.
Keeping with the theme, Christian Bale’s work in Vice vaults to first in Actor ahead of Bradley Cooper in Star.
Once again, a Star dips from the top spot as Glenn Close (TheWife) is first in Actress above Lady Gaga.
After Globe and Critics victories, Spider–Man: IntotheSpider–Verse is #1 in Animated Feature instead of Pixar’s Incredibles2.
You can can read all the rankings below and on Sunday, I will reveal my final picks for nominees ahead of Tuesday morning’s announcements!
BestPicture
1. Roma (Previous Ranking: 2)
2. AStarIsBorn (PR: 1)
3. GreenBook (PR: 4)
4. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 5)
5. BlackPanther (PR: 6)
6. TheFavourite (PR: 3)
7. Vice (PR: 8)
8. BohemianRhapsody (PR: 10)
9. IfBealeStreetCouldTalk (PR: 7)
OtherPossibilities:
10. FirstMan (PR: 9)
11. MaryPoppinsReturns (PR: 11)
12. AQuietPlace (PR: 13)
13. FirstReformed (PR: 15)
14. CrazyRichAsians (PR: Not Ranked)
15. CanYouEverForgiveMe? (PR: 14)
Dropped Out:
EighthGrade
BestDirector
1. Alfonso Cuaron, Roma (PR: 1)
2. Bradley Cooper, AStarIsBorn (PR: 2)
3. Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 3)
4. Peter Farrelly, GreenBook (PR: 6)
5. Yorgos Lanthimos, TheFavourite (PR: 4)
OtherPossibilities:
6. Adam McKay, Vice (PR: 9)
7. Ryan Coogler, BlackPanther (PR: 5)
8. Barry Jenkins, IfBealeStreetCouldTalk (PR: 7)
9. Damien Chazelle, FirstMan (PR: 8)
10. Pawel Pawlikowski, ColdWar (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Paul Schrader, FirstReformed
BestActor
1. Christian Bale, Vice (PR: 2)
2. Bradley Cooper, AStarIsBorn (PR: 1)
3. Rami Malek, BohemianRhapsody (PR: 4)
4. Viggo Mortensen, GreenBook (PR: 3)
5. Ethan Hawke, FirstReformed (PR: 5)
OtherPossibilities:
6. John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 6)
7. Willem Dafoe, AtEternity’sGate (PR: 7)
8. Ryan Gosling, FirstMan (PR: 8)
9. Robert Redford, TheOldMan & TheGun (PR: 10)
10. Lucas Hedges, BoyErased (PR: 9)
BestActress
1. Glenn Close, TheWife (PR: 3)
2. Lady Gaga, AStarIsBorn (PR: 1)
3. Olivia Colman, TheFavourite (PR: 2)
4. Melissa McCarthy, CanYouEverForgiveMe? (PR: 4)
5. Yalitza Aparicio, Roma (PR: 6)
OtherPossibilities:
6. Emily Blunt, MaryPoppinsReturns (PR: 5)
7. Nicole Kidman, Destroyer (PR: 8)
8. Viola Davis, Widows (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Toni Collette, Hereditary (PR: 7)
10. Elsie Fisher, EighthGrade (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Julia Roberts, BenIsBack
BestSupportingActor
1. Mahershala Ali, GreenBook (PR: 1)
2. Richard E. Grant, CanYouEverForgiveMe? (PR: 2)
3. Sam Elliot, AStarIsBorn (PR: 3)
4. Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 4)
5. Timothee Chalamet, BeautifulBoy (PR: 5)
OtherPossibilities:
6. Sam Rockwell, Vice (PR: 7)
7. Michael B. Jordan, BlackPanther (PR: 6)
8. Steven Yeun, Burning (PR: 10)
9. Nicholas Hoult, TheFavourite (PR: 8)
10. Brian Tyree Henry, IfBealeStreetCouldTalk (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Russell Hornsby, TheHateUGive
BestSupportingActress
1. Regina King, IfBealeStreetCouldTalk (PR: 1)
2. Amy Adams, Vice (PR: 2)
3. Rachel Weisz, TheFavourite (PR: 4)
4. Emma Stone, TheFavourite (PR: 3)
5. Claire Foy, FirstMan (PR: 5)
OtherPossibilities:
6. Margot Robbie, MaryQueenofScots (PR: 6)
7. Nicole Kidman, BoyErased (PR: 8)
8. Michelle Yeoh, CrazyRichAsians (PR: Not Ranked)
The Critics Choice Awards aired last night and the ceremony has been a harbinger at times for the Oscar race ahead. Notably the show in 2017 ended up matching the Academy’s winners in all major races. So what message did reviewers send yesterday? Well some of it was mixed and some of it solidified certain selections in their positions come gold statue time.
It was a very good evening for Roma. The Mexican drama won Best Picture and its filmmaker Alfonso Cuaron won for his direction and cinematography. In those latter two races, Cuaron is the strong favorite to take the Oscar. Picture is still not assured as it faces competition from AStarIsBorn and maybe BlacKkKlansman (which did go home empty-handed yesterday). I’ve had Star placed at #1 consistently in my Oscar rankings. Don’t be surprised if Roma grabs that slot this week when I update my predictions.
Christian Bale was victorious in Actor for Vice. Coupled with his Golden Globe win the week prior, it could give him a slight edge over Bradley Cooper in Star and Rami Malek for BohemianRhapsody. Yet it’s competitive.
So is Best Actress and last night proved it. There was the rare tie and it was between Lady Gaga in Star and Glenn Close as TheWife. I’d say it’s a coin flip between them at the Oscars and I wouldn’t totally count out Olivia Colman in TheFavourite.
The supporting winners matched the Golden Globes with Mahershala Ali (GreenBook) and Regina King (IfBealeStreetCouldTalk). Even though King was surprisingly not nominated at the upcoming SAG Awards, both actors look like front-runners in their respective categories.
BealeStreet also took Adapted Screenplay, giving it a boost in that race over the slightly more favored BlacKkKlansman. In Original Screenplay, Paul Schrader notched a big win for FirstReformed. I’m feeling more confident it makes the final five for the Academy.
The Critics Choice voters also chose Spider–Man: IntotheSpider–Verse over Pixar’s Incredibles2 in Animated Film like the Globes did. That’s more fuel to the fire that Spidey could get that Oscar win and give Pixar a rare loss in that race.
Finally, BlackPanther had a solid showing – winning Visual Effects, Production Design, and Costume Design. FirstMan took Editing while Vice was honored for its Makeup.
I’ll have my updates Oscar predictions up later this week with final estimates up on Sunday prior to Tuesday’s announcement. Stay tuned!
Wow. Well, the Golden Globes were going according to script for the vast majority of its running time… until the last 20 minutes or so. It was a huge night for both BohemianRhapsody and GreenBook, with the former’s final win being quite the shocker.
The Queen biopic won in an upset for Best Film (Drama) over the heavily favored AStarIsBorn. Less surprising was its star Rami Malek’s Best Actor (Drama) victory, though I picked Bradley Cooper.
In the other upset, Glenn Close took Best Actress (Drama) for TheWife over Lady Gaga in Star. While the Cooper/Gaga musical drama predictably won Best Song for “Shallow”, that was the only statue for it. That’s surprising.
All in all, I went 10/14 on my picks. I was chugging right along until the Close, Malek, and Bohemian victories.
The other race I missed was GreenBook taking Screenplay over TheFavourite. The race relations pic also won for Best Film (Musical/Comedy) and Supporting Actor for Mahershala Ali.
As for the other categories I correctly called:
Director: Alfonso Cuaron, Roma
Actor (Musical/Comedy): Christian Bale, Vice (it’s only win despite a leading six nods)
Supporting Actress: Regina King, IfBealeStreetCouldTalk
Foreign Language Film: Roma
Animated Film: Spider–Man: IntotheSpider–Verse
Score: FirstMan
So… what does this mean for the Oscars? It could mean a lot. I have felt that AStarIsBorn and Cooper and Gaga were the soft favorites. That could still be true. I’m still a bit skeptical Malek wins the Oscar, but Bale is a different story. Bottom line: Best Actor is a competitive three-way race.
So is Best Actress. Close’s win could mean the Academy’s race will end up closer than anticipated. And Colman is a factor, too.
Ali and King helped solidify their status as supporting front-runners. So did Cuaron in the directing race.
To Best Picture… I believe the unexpected Star loss could ironically boost its Oscar chances for the big prize. Perhaps the Academy voters will feel they wish to go a different way. As for Rhapsody, I had yet to predict it would even get a nomination. You can definitely expect that to change come Thursday in my weekly predictions. I feel the biggest Star competition is Roma rather than GreenBook at the moment.
So that’s my first blush reaction on a night when Bohemian was a champion. And finally – I want to hang out with Carol Burnett. That’s all for now, folks!
The highest profile Oscar precursor airs this Sunday with Andy Samberg and Sandra Oh sharing hosting duties. That means it’s time to roll out my predictions on who and what will win in the film categories. Truth be told, some of these races are fairly easy to pick. Others… not so much. Let’s break each category down with my final picks on the victors.
Best Drama
The Nominees: Black Panther, BlacKkKlansman, Bohemian Rhapsody, If Beale Street Could Talk, A Star Is Born
It was an interesting decision for Warner Bros. to place Star here instead of in Musical/Comedy. Even with that, I believe anything else winning would be an upset (BlacKkKlansman may have the best remote shot). Star is looked at as a soft front-runner at the big show down the line. I feel a win here will help solidify that.
Predicted Winner: A Star Is Born
Best Musical/Comedy
The Nominees: Crazy Rich Asians, The Favourite, Green Book, Mary Poppins Returns, Vice
Unlike Drama, this race is considerably tougher to project. Vice received the most nominations of any picture and that could mean something. However, critical reaction has been more mixed than originally anticipated. Mary Poppins Returns now seems to be a legitimate question mark as to Oscar inclusion for Picture and the competition is steep. The reward for Crazy Rich Asians is its nomination.
So, for me, this comes down to Green Book and The Favourite and it’s seriously a coin flip. I am giving a tiny edge to Green Book since it received a directing nomination, unlike The Favourite.
Predicted Winner: Green Book
Best Director
The Nominees: Bradley Cooper (A Star Is Born), Alfonso Cuaron (Roma), Peter Farrelly (Green Book), Spike Lee (BlacKkKlansman), Adam McKay (Vice)
A win for Cooper or Lee is not out of the question, but Cuaron is the odds on favorite (as he is for the Academy). Roma was not eligible for inclusion in Drama since it’s a foreign pic. It will (spoiler alert for below!) be honored there and here.
Predicted Winner: Cuaron
Best Actor (Drama)
The Nominees: Bradley Cooper (A Star Is Born), Willem Dafoe (At Eternity’s Gate), Lucas Hedges (Boy Erased), Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody), John David Washington (BlacKkKlansman)
The Best Actor drama race comes down to two performers who used their musical skills to dramatic effect: Cooper and Malek. I would not at all be surprised to see Malek’s Freddie Mercury pick up the trophy, but I’ll say the Star love extends here.
Predicted Winner: Cooper
Best Actress (Drama)
The Nominees: Glenn Close (The Wife), Lady Gaga (A Star Is Born), Nicole Kidman (Destroyer), Melissa McCarthy (Can You Ever Forgive Me?), Rosamund Pike (A Private War)
Not long ago, the Globes bestowed Lady Gaga with an unexpected win for her TV work in “American Horror Story”. If they did that, I’ll say they honor her here for her breakthrough film role. Close is the only actress that provides potential competition.
Predicted Winner: Gaga
Best Actor (Musical/Comedy)
The Nominees: Christian Bale (Vice), Lin-Manuel Miranda (Mary Poppins Returns), Viggo Mortensen (Green Book), Robert Redford (The Old Man & The Gun), John C. Reilly (Stan & Ollie)
If the Hollywood Foreign Press goes crazy for Green Book, Mortensen could be a benefactor. Yet I suspect this is the most obvious category to give Vice a win for Bale’s acclaimed performance.
This is Blunt v. Colman. With Poppins not quite getting all the box office/critics love that was expected, I lean Colman.
Predicted Winner: Colman
Best Supporting Actor
The Nominees: Mahershala Ali (Green Book), Timothee Chalamet (Beautiful Boy), Adam Driver (BlacKkKlansman), Richard E. Grant (Can You Ever Forgive Me?), Sam Rockwell (Vice)
The HFPA has had shockers in this race… Aaron Taylor-Johnson for Nocturnal Animals being a recent example. This is a tricky one. Other than Rockwell, I could see any name being called. I’m tempted to pick Grant, but I’ll go with Ali for a more safe choice (especially since it was Taylor-Johnson that unexpectedly beat him in 2016 for his Oscar-winning part in Moonlight).
Predicted Winner: Ali
Best Supporting Actress
The Nominees: Amy Adams (Vice), Claire Foy (First Man), Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk), Emma Stone (The Favourite), Rachel Weisz (The Favourite)
These are the five women I currently have down for Oscar nods. I suspect The Favourite ladies will cancel themselves out. Foy would be an upset. Could the several Vice nods mean Adams is a factor? It certainly could, but I believe King’s performance in Beale (not withstanding her SAG snub) will emerge.
Predicted Winner: King
Best Screenplay
The Nominees: The Favourite, Green Book, If Beale Street Could Talk, Roma, Vice
Unlike the Oscar, the Globes do not divide this race between adapted and original screenplays. A Roma or Book win is feasible, but I’ll say The Favourite is the choice in this case.
Predicted Winner: The Favourite
Best Foreign Language Film
The Nominees: Capernaum, Girl, Never Look Away, Roma, Shoplifters
As already discussed, this is going to be Roma. Not much left to say.
Predicted Winner: Roma
Best Animated Feature Film
The Nominees: Incredibles 2, Isle of Dogs, Mirai, Ralph Breaks the Internet, Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
It’s generally not wise to bet against Pixar and Incredibles 2 stands an excellent shot. I’m thinking the Globes may go against the grain though as Spidey is peaking at the right time with its very recent raves.
Predicted Winner: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
Best Original Score
The Nominees: Black Panther, First Man, Isle of Dogs, Mary Poppins Returns, A Quiet Place
Once again, I’m tempted to go with Disney and their iconic nanny as this is the only musical on here. However, I’ll say Justin Hurwitz’s acclaimed score for First Man lands the win.
Predicted Winner: First Man
Best Original Song
The Nominees: “All the Stars” from Black Panther, “Girl in the Movies” from Dumplin, “Requiem for a Private War” from A Private War, “Revelation” from Boy Erased, “Shallow” from A Star Is Born
It was unexpected that Poppins made no showing here (part of the reason I’m picking against it in Score). Regardless, there is an extremely obvious front-runner here and it’s Cooper and Gaga’s duet.
Predicted Winner: “Shallow” from A Star Is Born
My projections give Star a bright evening with four victories, with The Favourite, Green Book, and Roma all picking up two. I’ll have analysis up shortly after the ceremony as to how I did. Stay tuned!
We are now 19 days away from Oscar nominations as the major precursors are set to air in short order. It begins with the Golden Globes on Sunday (look for my winner predictions for that ceremony on the blog tomorrow). My updated rankings this week reflect the following changes:
Emily Blunt’s starring role in Mary Poppins Returns is back in my predicted top five, ousting Yalitza Aparicio from Roma
In Documentary Feature, RBG falls out of my nominees for the first time and makes way for Shirkers
In Editing, it’s Black Panther in for BlacKkKlansman. This contributes to my tally of Panther getting the most nominations of any picture for the first time (over A Star Is Born)
In Makeup and Hairstyling, Border crosses the top 3 with Mary Queen of Scots on the outside looking in
Let’s get to it!
Best Picture
1. A Star Is Born (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Roma (PR: 2)
3. The Favourite (PR: 3)
4. Green Book (PR: 4)
5. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 5)
6. Black Panther (PR: 6)
7. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 7)
8. Vice (PR: 8)
9. First Man (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
10. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 10)
11. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 11)
12. Eighth Grade (PR: 14)
13. A Quiet Place (PR: 13)
14. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 12)
15. First Reformed (PR: 15)
Best Director
1. Alfonso Cuaron, Roma (PR: 1)
2. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 2)
3. Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 3)
4. Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite (PR: 4)
5. Ryan Coogler, Black Panther (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Peter Farrelly, Green Book (PR: 6)
7. Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 7)
8. Damien Chazelle, First Man (PR: 9)
9. Adam McKay, Vice (PR: 8)
10. Paul Schrader, First Reformed (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Marielle Heller, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Best Actor
1. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 1)
2. Christian Bale, Vice (PR: 2)
3. Viggo Mortensen, Green Book (PR: 4)
4. Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 3)
5. Ethan Hawke, First Reformed (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 6)
7. Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate (PR: 8)
8. Ryan Gosling, First Man (PR: 7)
9. Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased (PR: 10)
10. Robert Redford, The Old Man & The Gun (PR: 9)
Best Actress
1. Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born (PR: 1)
2. Olivia Colman, The Favourite (PR: 2)
3. Glenn Close, The Wife (PR: 3)
4. Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 4)
5. Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Yalitza Aparicio, Roma (PR: 5)
7. Toni Collette, Hereditary (PR: 7)
8. Nicole Kidman, Destroyer (PR: 8)
9. Elsie Fisher, Eighth Grade (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Julia Roberts, Ben Is Back (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Viola Davis, Widows
Best Supporting Actor
1. Mahershala Ali, Green Book (PR: 1)
2. Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 2)
3. Sam Elliot, A Star Is Born (PR: 3)
4. Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 4)
5. Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther (PR: 6)
7. Sam Rockwell, Vice (PR: 7)
8. Nicholas Hoult, The Favourite (PR: 8)
9. Russell Hornsby, The Hate U Give (PR: 9)
10. Steven Yeun, Burning (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Brian Tyree Henry, If Beale Street Could Talk
Best Supporting Actress
1. Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 1)
2. Amy Adams, Vice (PR: 2)
3. Emma Stone, The Favourite (PR: 3)
4. Rachel Weisz, The Favourite (PR: 4)
5. Claire Foy, First Man (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Margot Robbie, Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 6)
7. Emily Blunt, A Quiet Place (PR: 7)
8. Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased (PR: 8)
9. Thomasin McKenzie, Leave No Trace (PR: 9)
10. Marina De Tavira, Roma (PR: 10)
Best Adapted Screenplay
1. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 1)
2. A Star Is Born (PR: 2)
3. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 3)
4. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 4)
5. Black Panther (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. First Man (PR: 7)
7. Leave No Trace (PR: 6)
8. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 8)
9. Widows (PR: 10)
10. The Hate U Give (PR: 9)
Best Original Screenplay
1. The Favourite (PR: 1)
2. Roma (PR: 2)
3. Green Book (PR: 3)
4. First Reformed (PR: 5)
5. Eighth Grade (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Vice (PR: 6)
7. A Quiet Place (PR: 7)
8. Private Life (PR: 9)
9. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 8)
10. Cold War (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
Best Foreign Language Film
1. Roma (PR: 1)
2. Cold War (PR: 2)
3. Shoplifters (PR: 3)
4. Burning (PR: 4)
5. Capernaum (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Guilty (PR: 6)
7. Never Look Away (PR: 7)
8. Birds of Passage (PR: 8)
9. Ayka (PR: 9)
Best Animated Feature
1. Incredibles 2 (PR: 1)
2. Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse (PR: 2)
3. Isle of Dogs (PR: 4)
4. Ralph Breaks the Internet (PR: 3)
5. Mirai (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Early Man (PR: 6)
7. The Grinch (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Smallfoot (PR: 7)
9. Lu Over the Wall (PR: 8)
10. Ruben Brandt, Collector (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Teen Titans Go! To the Movies
Best Documentary Feature
1. Won’t You Be My Neighbor? (PR: 1)
2. Free Solo (PR: 2)
3. Minding the Gap (PR: 4)
4. Three Identical Strangers (PR: 3)
5. Shirkers (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. RBG (PR: 5)
7. Hale County This Morning, This Evening (PR: 6)
8. Crime + Punishment (PR: 8)
9. Of Fathers and Sons (PR: 9)
10. On Her Shoulders (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Dark Money
Best Film Editing
1. A Star Is Born (PR: 1)
2. First Man (PR: 3)
3. Roma (PR: 2)
4. Black Panther (PR: 7)
5. The Favourite (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Vice (PR: 6)
7. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 5)
8. Widows (PR: 10)
9. A Quiet Place (PR: 9)
10. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Green Book
Best Cinematography
1. Roma (PR: 1)
2. First Man (PR: 2)
3. A Star Is Born (PR: 3)
4. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 5)
5. The Favourite (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Cold War (PR: 6)
7. Black Panther (PR: 7)
8. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 10)
9. The Rider (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
BlacKkKlansman
Best Production Design
1. The Favourite (PR: 1)
2. Black Panther (PR: 2)
3. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 3)
4. First Man (PR: 4)
5. Roma (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 7)
7. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 8)
8. A Star Is Born (PR: 6)
9. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (PR: 9)
10. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 10)
Best Costume Design
1. The Favourite (PR: 1)
2. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 3)
3. Black Panther (PR: 2)
4. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 4)
5. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 7)
7. A Star Is Born (PR: 9)
8. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 6)
9. Colette (PR: 10)
10. The Nutcracker and the Four Realms (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
If Beale Street Could Talk
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
1. Vice (PR: 2)
2. Black Panther (PR: 1)
3. Border (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
4. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 3)
5. Stan & Ollie (PR: 5)
6. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 6)
7. Suspiria (PR: 7)
Best Sound Editing
1. First Man (PR: 1)
2. A Quiet Place (PR: 2)
3. Black Panther (PR: 3)
4. A Star Is Born (PR: 5)
5. Roma (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mission: Impossible – Fallout (PR: 6)
7. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 8)
8. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 9)
9. Ready Player One (PR: 7)
10. Incredibles 2 (PR: 10)
Best Sound Mixing
1. A Star Is Born (PR: 1)
2. First Man (PR: 2)
3. Black Panther (PR: 5)
4. A Quiet Place (PR: 3)
5. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 7)
7. Mission: Impossible – Fallout (PR: 10)
8. Roma (PR: 6)
9. Ready Player One (PR: 9)
10. Incredibles 2 (PR: 8)
Best Visual Effects
1. First Man (PR: 4)
2. Avengers: Infinity War (PR: 1)
3. Black Panther (PR: 2)
4. Ready Player One (PR: 3)
5. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Solo: A Star Wars Story (PR: 6)
7. Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom (PR: 8)
8. Welcome to Marwen (PR: 7)
9. Ant-Man and the Wasp (PR: 9)
10. Christopher Robin (PR: 10)
Best Original Score
1. First Man (PR: 2)
2. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 5)
3. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 1)
4. Black Panther (PR: 3)
5. Isle of Dogs (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 4)
7. A Quiet Place (PR: 7)
8. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 8)
9. Ready Player One (PR: 10)
10. Vice (PR: 9)
Best Original Song
1. “Shallow” from A Star Is Born (PR: 1)
2. “All the Stars” from Black Panther (PR: 2)
3. “Trip a Little Light Fantastic” from Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 4)
4. “I’ll Fight” from RBG (PR: 3)
5. “Girl in the Movies” from Dumplin (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. “The Place Where Lost Things Go” from Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 6)
7. “Revelation” from Boy Erased (PR: 7)
8. “OYAHTT” from Sorry to Bother You (PR: 10)
9. “When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs For Wings” from The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 8)
10. “We Won’t Move” from The Hate U Give (PR: 10)
And that breaks down to these movies getting the following number of nods:
12 Nominations
Black Panther
11 Nominations
A Star Is Born
10 Nominations
The Favourite
9 Nominations
First Man
8 Nominations
Roma
7 Nominations
Mary Poppins Returns
5 Nominations
If Beale Street Could Talk
4 Nominations
BlacKkKlansman, Green Book, Vice
3 Nominations
Can You Ever Forgive Me?
2 Nominations
A Quiet Place, First Reformed, Isle of Dogs
1 Nomination
Avengers: Infinity War, Beautiful Boy, Bohemian Rhapsody, Border, Burning, Capernaum, Cold War, Dumplin, Eighth Grade, Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald, Free Solo, Incredibles 2, Mary Queen of Scots, Minding the Gap, Mirai, Ralph Breaks the Internet, RBG, Ready Player One, Shirkers, Shoplifters, Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse, Three Identical Strangers, The Wife, Won’t You Be My Neighbor?
It’s my final Oscar predictions of 2018 as the nominations draw closer (with the Golden Globes airing next Sunday)! And, yes, we’re seeing some changes:
First Man is back in my predicted nine with Mary Poppins Returns out. Bohemian Rhapsody continues to rise and is inching closer to possible inclusion.
In Best Director, Ryan Coogler (Black Panther) is in with Barry Jenkins (If Beale Street Could Talk) out.
In Best Actress, Yalitza Aparicio returns to my top 5 with Emily Blunt’s title role in Mary Poppins Returns falling.
Let’s get to it!
Best Picture
1. A Star Is Born (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Roma (PR: 2)
3. The Favourite (PR: 3)
4. Green Book (PR: 5)
5. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 4)
6. Black Panther (PR: 6)
7. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 7)
8. Vice (PR: 8)
9. First Man (PR: 10)
Other Possibilities:
10. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 11)
11. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 9)
12. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 12)
13. A Quiet Place (PR: 14)
14. Eighth Grade (PR: 13)
15. First Reformed (PR: 15)
Best Director
1. Alfonso Cuaron, Roma (PR: 1)
2. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 2)
3. Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 3)
4. Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite (PR: 4)
5. Ryan Coogler, Black Panther (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Peter Farrelly, Green Book (PR: 7)
7. Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 5)
8. Adam McKay, Vice (PR: 8)
9. Damien Chazelle, First Man (PR: 9)
10. Marielle Heller, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Rob Marshall, Mary Poppins Returns
Best Actor
1. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 1)
2. Christian Bale, Vice (PR: 2)
3. Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 3)
4. Viggo Mortensen, Green Book (PR: 4)
5. Ethan Hawke, First Reformed (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 6)
7. Ryan Gosling, First Man (PR: 9)
8. Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate (PR: 7)
9. Robert Redford, The Old Man & The Gun (PR: 8)
10. Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Ben Foster, Leave No Trace
Best Actress
1. Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born (PR: 1)
2. Olivia Colman, The Favourite (PR: 2)
3. Glenn Close, The Wife (PR: 3)
4. Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 4)
5. Yalitza Aparicio, Roma (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 5)
7. Toni Collette, Hereditary (PR: 8)
8. Nicole Kidman, Destroyer (PR: 7)
9. Viola Davis, Widows (PR: 10)
10. Julia Roberts, Ben Is Back (PR: 9)
Best Supporting Actor
1. Mahershala Ali, Green Book (PR: 1)
2. Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 2)
3. Sam Elliot, A Star Is Born (PR: 3)
4. Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 4)
5. Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther (PR: 6)
7. Sam Rockwell, Vice (PR: 7)
8. Nicholas Hoult, The Favourite (PR: 9)
9. Russell Hornsby, The Hate U Give (PR: 8)
10. Brian Tyree Henry, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Daniel Kaluuya, Widows
Best Supporting Actress
1. Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 1)
2. Amy Adams, Vice (PR: 2)
3. Emma Stone, The Favourite (PR: 3)
4. Rachel Weisz, The Favourite (PR: 4)
5. Claire Foy, First Man (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Margot Robbie, Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 6)
7. Emily Blunt, A Quiet Place (PR: 7)
8. Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased (PR: 8)
9. Thomasin McKenzie, Leave No Trace (PR: 9)
10. Marina De Tavira, Roma (PR: 10)
Best Adapted Screenplay
1. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 1)
2. A Star Is Born (PR: 2)
3. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 3)
4. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 4)
5. Black Panther (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Leave No Trace (PR: 8)
7. First Man (PR: 6)
8. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 7)
9. The Hate U Give (PR: 9)
10. Widows (PR: 10)
Best Original Screenplay
1. The Favourite (PR: 1)
2. Roma (PR: 2)
3. Green Book (PR: 3)
4. Eighth Grade (PR: 5)
5. First Reformed (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Vice (PR: 6)
7. A Quiet Place (PR: 7)
8. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Private Life (PR: 8)
10. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Sorry to Bother You
Best Foreign Language Film
1. Roma (PR: 1)
2. Cold War (PR: 2)
3. Shoplifters (PR: 3)
4. Burning (PR: 5)
5. Capernaum (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Guilty (PR: 8)
7. Never Look Away (PR: 6)
8. Birds of Passage (PR: 7)
9. Ayka (PR: 9)
Best Animated Feature
1. Incredibles 2 (PR: 1)
2. Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse (PR: 2)
3. Ralph Breaks the Internet (PR: 4)
4. Isle of Dogs (PR: 3)
5. Mirai (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Early Man (PR: 6)
7. Smallfoot (PR: 7)
8. Lu Over the Wall (PR: 10)
9. Ruben Brandt, Collector (PR: 9)
10. Teen Titans Go! To the Movies (PR: 8)
Best Documentary Feature
1. Won’t You Be My Neighbor (PR: 1)
2. Free Solo (PR: 2)
3. Three Identical Strangers (PR: 3)
4. Minding the Gap (PR: 5)
5. RBG (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Hale County This Morning, This Evening (PR: 7)
7. Shirkers (PR: 8)
8. Crime + Punishment (PR: 6)
9. Of Fathers and Sons (PR: 10)
10. Dark Money (PR: 9)
Best Film Editing
1. A Star Is Born (PR: 2)
2. Roma (PR: 1)
3. First Man (PR: 3)
4. The Favourite (PR: 4)
5. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Vice (PR: 6)
7. Black Panther (PR: 7)
8. Green Book (PR: 10)
9. A Quiet Place (PR: 8)
10. Widows (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Mary Poppins Returns
Best Cinematography
1. Roma (PR: 1)
2. First Man (PR: 2)
3. A Star Is Born (PR: 3)
4. The Favourite (PR: 4)
5. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Cold War (PR: 5)
7. Black Panther (PR: 6)
8. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 9)
9. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 8)
10. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Green Book
Best Production Design
1. The Favourite (PR: 1)
2. Black Panther (PR: 2)
3. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 3)
4. First Man (PR: 5)
5. Roma (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. A Star Is Born (PR: 9)
7. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 4)
8. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 7)
9. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (PR: 8)
10. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
If Beale Street Could Talk
Best Costume Design
1. The Favourite (PR: 1)
2. Black Panther (PR: 2)
3. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 4)
4. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 3)
5. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 9)
7. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 6)
8. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: Not Ranked)
9. A Star Is Born (PR: 7)
10. Colette (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
The Nutcracker and the Four Realms
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
1. Black Panther (PR: 1)
2. Vice (PR: 2)
3. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
4. Border (PR: 5)
5. Stan & Ollie (PR: 6)
6. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 4)
7. Suspiria (PR: 7)
Best Sound Editing
1. First Man (PR: 1)
2. A Quiet Place (PR: 3)
3. Black Panther (PR: 2)
4. Roma (PR: 4)
5. A Star Is Born (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mission: Impossible – Fallout (PR: 8)
7. Ready Player One (PR: 5)
8. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 9)
9. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Incredibles 2 (PR: 7)
Dropped Out:
Solo: A Star Wars Story
Best Sound Mixing
1. A Star Is Born (PR: 1)
2. First Man (PR: 2)
3. A Quiet Place (PR: 5)
4. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 4)
5. Black Panther (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Roma (PR: 7)
7. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 6)
8. Incredibles 2 (PR: 9)
9. Ready Player One (PR: 8)
10. Mission: Impossible – Fallout (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Solo: A Star Wars Story
Best Visual Effects
1. Avengers: Infinity War (PR: 1)
2. Black Panther (PR: 4)
3. Ready Player One (PR: 3)
4. First Man (PR: 2)
5. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Solo: A Star Wars Story (PR: 6)
7. Welcome to Marwen (PR: 8)
8. Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom (PR: 9)
9. Ant-Man and the Wasp (PR: 7)
10. Christopher Robin (PR: 10)
Best Original Score
1. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 2)
2. First Man (PR: 1)
3. Black Panther (PR: 6)
4. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 4)
5. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Isle of Dogs (PR: 5)
7. A Quiet Place (PR: 7)
8. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 8)
9. Vice (PR: 10)
10. Ready Player One (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Annihilation
Best Original Song
1. “Shallow” from A Star Is Born (PR: 1)
2. “All the Stars” from Black Panther (PR: 2)
3. “I’ll Fight” from RBG (PR: 4)
4. “Trip a Little Light Fantastic” from Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 3)
5. “Girl in the Movies” from Dumplin (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. “The Place Where Lost Things Go” from Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 6)
7. “Revelation” from Boy Erased (PR: 7)
8. “When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings” from The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 10)
9. “We Won’t Move” from The Hate U Give (PR: 8)
10. “OYAHTT” from Sorry to Bother You (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
“A Place Called Slaughter Race” from Ralph Breaks the Internet
And that adds up to these pictures getting the following number of nominations:
11 Nominations
A Star Is Born, Black Panther
10 Nominations
The Favourite
9 Nominations
First Man, Roma
6 Nominations
BlacKkKlansman, Mary Poppins Returns
5 Nominations
If Beale Street Could Talk
4 Nominations
Green Book, Vice
3 Nominations
Can You Ever Forgive Me?
2 Nominations
A Quiet Place, First Reformed, Mary Queen of Scots, RBG
1 Nomination
Avengers: Infinity War, Beautiful Boy, Bohemian Rhapsody, Burning, Capernaum, Cold War, Eighth Grade, Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald, Free Solo, Incredibles 2, Isle of Dogs, Minding the Gap, Mirai, Ralph Breaks the Internet, Ready Player One, Shoplifters, Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse, Three Identical Strangers, The Wife, Won’t You Be My Neighbor?
My weekly Oscar predictions are here again and there’s been some developments to discuss:
Earlier this week, a number of categories released their shortlists: Foreign Language Film, Documentary Feature, Makeup and Hairstyling, Visual Effects, Original Score, Original Song. As you’ll see, those picks reflect the new landscape for those races.
I’m going back to picking nine Best Picture selections and that means that FirstMan is out for the first time.
BlackPanther is a predicted nominee in Adapted Screenplay, making its inaugural appearance. It replaces CrazyRichAsians.
In Original Screenplay, EighthGrade is back in over Vice.
Let’s get to it!
Best Picture
1. A Star Is Born (PR: 1)
2. Roma (PR: 2)
3. The Favourite (PR: 3)
4. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 5)
5. Green Book (PR: 4)
6. Black Panther (PR: 7)
7. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 6)
8. Vice (PR: 8)
9. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
10. First Man (PR: 10)
11. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 14)
12. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 11)
13. Eighth Grade (PR: 12)
14. A Quiet Place (PR: Not Ranked)
15. First Reformed (PR: 13)
Dropped Out:
Crazy Rich Asians
Best Director
1. Alfonso Cuaron, Roma (PR: 1)
2. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 2)
3. Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 3)
4. Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite (PR: 4)
5. Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ryan Coogler, Black Panther (PR: 8)
7. Peter Farrelly, Green Book (PR: 6)
8. Adam McKay, Vice (PR: 7)
9. Damien Chazelle, First Man (PR: 9)
10. Rob Marshall, Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 10)
Best Actor
1. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 1)
2. Christian Bale, Vice (PR: 2)
3. Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 4)
4. Viggo Mortensen, Green Book (PR: 3)
5. Ethan Hawke, First Reformed (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 8)
7. Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate (PR: 6)
8. Robert Redford, The Old Man & The Gun (PR: 9)
9. Ryan Gosling, First Man (PR: 7)
10. Ben Foster, Leave No Trace (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased
Best Actress
1. Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born (PR: 2)
2. Olivia Colman, The Favourite (PR: 3)
3. Glenn Close, The Wife (PR: 1)
4. Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 4)
5. Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Yalitza Aparacio, Roma (PR: 6)
7. Nicole Kidman, Destroyer (PR: 7)
8. Toni Collette, Hereditary (PR: 9)
9. Julia Roberts, Ben Is Back (PR: 10)
10. Viola Davis, Widows (PR: 8)
Best Supporting Actor
1. Mahershala Ali, Green Book (PR: 1)
2. Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 2)
3. Sam Elliot, A Star Is Born (PR: 3)
4. Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 4)
5. Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther (PR: 6)
7. Sam Rockwell, Vice (PR: 7)
8. Russell Hornsby, The Hate U Give (PR: 9)
9. Nicholas Hoult, The Favourite (PR: 8)
10. Daniel Kaluuya, Widows (PR: 10)
Best Supporting Actress
1. Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 1)
2. Amy Adams, Vice (PR: 2)
3. Emma Stone, The Favourite (PR: 3)
4. Rachel Weisz, The Favourite (PR: 4)
5. Claire Foy, First Man (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Margot Robbie, Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 6)
7. Emily Blunt, A Quiet Place (PR: 10)
8. Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased (PR: 7)
9. Thomasin McKenzie, Leave No Trace (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Marina De Tavira, Roma (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Michelle Yeoh, Crazy Rich Asians
Natalie Portman, Vox Lux
Best Adapted Screenplay
1. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 1)
2. A Star Is Born (PR: 2)
3. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 3)
4. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 4)
5. Black Panther (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. First Man (PR: 7)
7. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 5)
8. Leave No Trace (PR: 8)
9. The Hate U Give (PR: 9)
10. Widows (PR: 10)
Best Original Screenplay
1. The Favourite (PR: 1)
2. Roma (PR: 3)
3. Green Book (PR: 2)
4. First Reformed (PR: 5)
5. Eighth Grade (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Vice (PR: 4)
7. A Quiet Place (PR: 7)
8. Private Life (PR: 9)
9. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 10)
10. Sorry to Bother You (PR: 8)
Best Foreign Language Film
1. Roma (PR: 1)
2. Cold War (PR: 2)
3. Shoplifters (PR: 3)
4. Capernaum (PR: 5)
5. Burning (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Never Look Away (PR: 6)
7. Birds of Passage (PR: 9)
8. The Guilty (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Ayka (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Girl
Border
I Am Not a Witch
Best Animated Feature
1. Incredibles 2 (PR: 1)
2. Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse (PR: 2)
3. Isle of Dogs (PR: 3)
4. Ralph Breaks the Internet (PR: 4)
5. Mirai (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Early Man (PR: 7)
7. Smallfoot (PR: 6)
8. Teen Titans Go! To the Movies (PR: 9)
9. Ruben Brandt, Collector (PR: 8)
10. Lu Over the Wall (PR: 10)
Best Documentary Feature
1. Won’t You Be My Neighbor? (PR: 1)
2. Free Solo (PR: 4)
3. Three Identical Strangers (PR: 2)
4. RBG (PR: 3)
5. Minding the Gap (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Crime + Punishment (PR: 6)
7. Hale County This Morning, This Evening (PR: 9)
8. Shirkers (PR: 8)
9. Dark Money (PR: 7)
10. Of Fathers and Sons (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Science Fair
Best Film Editing
1. Roma (PR: 1)
2. A Star Is Born (PR: 3)
3. First Man (PR: 2)
4. The Favourite (PR: 5)
5. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Vice (PR: 4)
7. Black Panther (PR: 7)
8. A Quiet Place (PR: 10)
9. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Green Book (PR: 6)
Dropped Out:
If Beale Street Could Talk
Best Cinematography
1. Roma (PR: 1)
2. First Man (PR: 2)
3. A Star Is Born (PR: 5)
4. The Favourite (PR: 3)
5. Cold War (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Black Panther (PR: 6)
7. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 4)
8. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 8)
9. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Green Book (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Vice
Best Production Design
1. The Favourite (PR: 1)
2. Black Panther (PR: 2)
3. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 4)
4. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 3)
5. First Man (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Roma (PR: 8)
7. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 5)
8. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (PR: 9)
9. A Star Is Born (PR: 7)
10. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 10)
Best Costume Design
1. The Favourite (PR: 1)
2. Black Panther (PR: 2)
3. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 3)
4. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 4)
5. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: Not Ranked)
7. A Star Is Born (PR: 8)
8. Colette (PR: 6)
9. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 7)
10. The Nutcracker and the Four Realms (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
If Beale Street Could Talk
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
1. Black Panther (PR: 1)
2. Vice (PR: 3)
3. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 2)
Other Possibilities:
4. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 9)
5. Border (PR: Not Ranked)
6. Stan & Ollie (PR: 4)
7. Suspiria (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Favourite
Mary Poppins Returns
Colette
A Star Is Born
Solo: A Star Wars Story
Best Sound Editing
1. First Man (PR: 1)
2. Black Panther (PR: 3)
3. A Quiet Place (PR: 2)
4. Roma (PR: 5)
5. Ready Player One (PR: 10)
Other Possibilities:
6. A Star Is Born (PR: 4)
7. Incredibles 2 (PR: 6)
8. Mission: Impossible – Fallout (PR: 8)
9. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 7)
10. Solo: A Star Wars Story (PR: 9)
Best Sound Mixing
1. A Star Is Born (PR: 1)
2. First Man (PR: 2)
3. Black Panther (PR: 3)
4. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 6)
5. A Quiet Place (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 5)
7. Roma (PR: 7)
8. Ready Player One (PR: 10)
9. Incredibles 2 (PR: 8)
10. Solo: A Star Wars Story (PR: 9)
Best Visual Effects
1. Avengers: Infinity War (PR: 1)
2. First Man (PR: 2)
3. Ready Player One (PR: 3)
4. Black Panther (PR: 5)
5. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Solo: A Star Wars Story (PR: 7)
7. Ant-Man and the Wasp (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Welcome to Marwen (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Christopher Robin (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Incredibles 2
Aquaman
Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald
A Quiet Place
Best Original Score
1. First Man (PR: 1)
2. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 2)
3. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 3)
4. BlackKlansman (PR: 4)
5. Isle of Dogs (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Black Panther (PR: 7)
7. A Quiet Place (PR: Not Ranked)
8. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Annihilation (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Vice (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Mary Queen of Scots
Incredibles 2
Colette
Suspiria
Best Original Song
1. “Shallow” from A Star Is Born (PR: 1)
2. “All the Stars” from Black Panther (PR: 2)
3. “Trip a Little Light Fantastic” from Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 3)
4. “I’ll Fight” from RBG (PR: 4)
5. “Girl in the Movies” from Dumplin (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. “The Place Where Lost Things Go” from Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 9)
7. “Revelation” from Boy Erased (PR: 6)
8. “We Won’t Move” from The Hate U Give (PR: 10)
9. “A Place Called Slaughter Race” from Ralph Breaks the Internet (PR: 8)
10. “When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings” from The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
“Time for Change” from On the Basis of Sex
And that gives these pictures the following number of nominations:
10 Nominations
A Star Is Born, The Favourite
9 Nominations
Black Panther
8 Nominations
First Man, Mary Poppins Returns
7 Nominations
Roma
6 Nominations
BlacKkKlansman
5 Nominations
If Beale Street Could Talk
4 Nominations
Green Book, Vice
3 Nominations
Can You Ever Forgive Me?, Mary Queen of Scots
2 Nominations
A Quiet Place, Cold War, First Reformed, Isle of Dogs, Ready Player One, RBG
1 Nomination
Avengers: Infinity War, Beautiful Boy, Bohemian Rhapsody, Burning, Capernaum, Dumplin, Eighth Grade, Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald, Free Solo, Incredibles 2, Minding the Gap, Mirai, Ralph Breaks the Internet, Shoplifters, Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse, Three Identical Strangers, The Wife, Won’t You Be My Neighbor?
A day late, but my weekly Oscar predictions are up for your review! Enjoy…
Best Picture
1. A Star Is Born (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Roma (PR: 2)
3. The Favourite (PR: 3)
4. Green Book (PR: 4)
5. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 6)
6. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 5)
7. Black Panther (PR: 8)
8. Vice (PR: 7)
9. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 9)
10. First Man (PR: 10)
Other Possibilities:
11. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 11)
12. Eighth Grade (PR: 13)
13. First Reformed (PR: 12)
14. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 14)
Dropped Out:
Widows
Best Director
1. Alfonso Cuaron, Roma (PR: 1)
2. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 2)
3. Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 3)
4. Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite (PR: 5)
5. Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Peter Farrelly, Green Book (PR: 6)
7. Adam McKay, Vice (PR: 7)
8. Ryan Coogler, Black Panther (PR: 8)
9. Damien Chazelle, First Man (PR: 10)
10. Rob Marshall, Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 9)
Best Actor
1. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 1)
2. Christian Bale, Vice (PR: 2)
3. Viggo Mortensen, Green Book (PR: 3)
4. Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 4)
5. Ethan Hawke, First Reformed (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate (PR: 6)
7. Ryan Gosling, First Man (PR: 7)
8. John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Robert Redford, The Old Man & The Gun (PR: 8)
10. Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Clint Eastwood, The Mule
Best Actress
1. Glenn Close, The Wife (PR: 1)
2. Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born (PR: 2)
3. Olivia Colman, The Favourite (PR: 3)
4. Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 5)
5. Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Yalitza Aparicio, Roma (PR: 6)
7. Nicole Kidman, Destroyer (PR: 8)
8. Viola Davis, Widows (PR: 7)
9. Toni Collette, Hereditary (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Julia Roberts, Ben Is Back (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Rosamund Pike, A Private War
Best Supporting Actor
1. Mahershala Ali, Green Book (PR: 1)
2. Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 3)
3. Sam Ellliot, A Star Is Born (PR: 2)
4. Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 4)
5. Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther (PR: 8)
7. Sam Rockwell, Vice (PR: 6)
8. Nicholas Hoult, The Favourite (PR: 7)
9. Russell Hornsby, The Hate U Give (PR: 9)
10. Daniel Kaluuya, Widows (PR: 10)
Best Supporting Actress
1. Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 1)
2. Amy Adams, Vice (PR: 2)
3. Emma Stone, The Favourite (PR: 3)
4. Rachel Weisz, The Favourite (PR: 4)
5. Claire Foy, First Man (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Margot Robbie, Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 10)
7. Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased (PR: 6)
8. Michelle Yeoh, Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 8)
9. Natalie Portman, Vox Lux (PR: 7)
10. Emily Blunt, A Quiet Place (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Marina De Tavira, Roma
Best Adapted Screenplay
1. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 1)
2. A Star Is Born (PR: 3)
3. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 2)
4. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 4)
5. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Black Panther (PR: 6)
7. First Man (PR: 5)
8. Leave No Trace (PR: 9)
9. The Hate U Give (PR: 10)
10. Widows (PR: 7)
Best Original Screenplay
1. The Favourite (PR: 1)
2. Green Book (PR: 3)
3. Roma (PR: 2)
4. Vice (PR: 4)
5. First Reformed (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Eighth Grade (PR: 6)
7. A Quiet Place (PR: 8)
8. Sorry to Bother You (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Private Life (PR: 7)
10. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Ben Is Back
Best Foreign Language Film
1. Roma (PR: 1)
2. Cold War (PR: 2)
3. Shoplifters (PR: 3)
4. Burning (PR: 6)
5. Capernaum (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Never Look Away (PR: 7)
7. Girl (PR: 5)
8. Border (PR: 8)
9. Birds of Passage (PR: 9)
10. I Am Not a Witch (PR: 10)
Best Animated Feature
1. Incredibles 2 (PR: 1)
2. Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse (PR: 2)
3. Isle of Dogs (PR: 3)
4. Ralph Breaks the Internet (PR: 4)
5. Mirai (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Smallfoot (PR: 6)
7. Early Man (PR: 8)
8. Ruben Brandt, Collector (PR: 7)
9. Teen Titans Go! To the Movies (PR: 10)
10. Lu Over the Wall (PR: 9)
Best Documentary Feature
1. Won’t You Be My Neighbor? (PR: 1)
2. Three Identical Strangers (PR: 2)
3. RBG (PR: 4)
4. Free Solo (PR: 3)
5. Minding the Gap (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Crime + Punishment (PR: 6)
7. Dark Money (PR: 7)
8. Shirkers (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Hale County This Morning, This Evening (PR: 8)
10. Science Fair (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Quincy
Best Film Editing
1. Roma (PR: 2)
2. First Man (PR: 1)
3. A Star Is Born (PR: 3)
4. Vice (PR: 6)
5. The Favourite (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Green Book (PR: 9)
7. Black Panther (PR: 5)
8. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 8)
9. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 7)
10. A Quiet Place (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Widows
Best Cinematography
1. Roma (PR: 1)
2. First Man (PR: 3)
3. The Favourite (PR: 4)
4. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 2)
5. A Star Is Born (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Black Panther (PR: 6)
7. Cold War (PR: 7)
8. BlacKkKlansman (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Vice (PR: 10)
10. Green Book (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Widows
The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
Best Production Design
1. The Favourite (PR: 1)
2. Black Panther (PR: 2)
3. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 6)
4. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 4)
5. Crazy Rich Asians(PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. First Man (PR: 3)
7. A Star Is Born (PR: 7)
8. Roma (PR: 5)
9. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (PR: 9)
10. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 10)
Best Costume Design
1. The Favourite (PR: 1)
2. Black Panther (PR: 2)
3. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 3)
4. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 4)
5. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Colette (PR: 7)
7. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 5)
8. A Star Is Born (PR: 6)
9. The Nutcracker and the Four Realms (PR: Not Ranked)
10. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Bohemian Rhapsody
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
1. Black Panther (PR: 1)
2. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 2)
3. Vice (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
4. Stan & Ollie (PR: 4)
5. The Favourite (PR: 5)
6. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 8)
7. Colette (PR: 6)
8. A Star Is Born (PR: 7)
9. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Solo: A Star Wars Story (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Deadpool 2
Best Sound Editing
1. First Man (PR: 1)
2. A Quiet Place (PR: 2)
3. Black Panther (PR: 4)
4. A Star Is Born (PR: 3)
5. Roma (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Incredibles 2 (PR: 6)
7. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 7)
8. Mission: Impossible – Fallout (PR: 8)
9. Solo: A Star Wars Story (PR: 9)
10. Ready Player One (PR: 10)
Best Sound Mixing
1. A Star Is Born (PR: 2)
2. First Man (PR: 1)
3. Black Panther (PR: 5)
4. A Quiet Place (PR: 3)
5. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 4)
7. Roma (PR: 7)
8. Incredibles 2 (PR: 8)
9. Solo: A Star Wars Story (PR: 9)
10. Ready Player One (PR: 10)
Best Visual Effects
1. Avengers: Infinity War (PR: 2)
2. First Man (PR: 1)
3. Ready Player One (PR: 3)
4. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 4)
5. Black Panther (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Incredibles 2 (PR: 9)
7. Solo: A Star Wars Story (PR: 6)
8. Aquaman (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (PR: 8)
10. A Quiet Place (PR: 7)
Dropped Out:
Ant-Man and the Wasp
Best Original Score
1. First Man (PR: 1)
2. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 2)
3. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 3)
4. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 5)
5. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Incredibles 2 (PR: 10)
7. Black Panther (PR: 9)
8. Isle of Dogs (PR: 6)
9. Colette (PR: 7)
10. Suspiria (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Widows
Best Original Song
1. “The Shallow” from A Star Is Born (PR: 1)
2. “All the Stars” from Black Panther (PR: 3)
3. “Trip a Little Light Fantastic” from Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 2)
4. “I’ll Fight” from RBG (PR: 4)
5. “Girl at the Movies” from Dumplin (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Revelation” from Boy Erased (PR: 6)
7. “Time for Change” from On the Basis of Sex (PR: 7)
8. “A Place Called Slaughter Race” from Ralph Breaks the Internet (PR: Not Ranked)
9. “The Place Where Lost Things Go” from Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 8)
10. “We Won’t Move” from The Hate U Give (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
“I’ll Never Love Again” from A Star Is Born
And that equates to the following films getting these numbers for nominations:
11 Nominations
A Star Is Born
10 Nominations
The Favourite
8 Nominations
Black Panther, First Man
7 Nominations
Mary Poppins Returns, Roma
6 Nominations
If Beale Street Could Talk, Vice
5 Nominations
BlacKkKlansman
4 Nominations
Green Book, Mary Queen of Scots
3 Nominations
Can You Ever Forgive Me?
2 Nominations
Bohemian Rhapsody, Crazy Rich Asians, First Reformed, A Quiet Place, RBG
1 Nomination
The Wife, Beautiful Boy, Cold War, Shoplifters, Burning, Capernaum, Incredibles 2, Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse, Isle of Dogs, Ralph Breaks the Internet, Mirai, Won’t You Be My Neighbor?, Three Identical Strangers, RBG, Free Solo, Minding the Gap, Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald, Avengers: Infinity War, Ready Player One, Dumplin’
The SAG Awards were announced this morning and a couple of items are clear. First, the Screen Actors Guild nods handed us some genuine surprises. Second, this branch of thespians really love them some Emily Blunt!
I went 18/25 on my predictions and let’s break down each category with some thoughts and my first winner predictions (with final ones coming right before the January ceremony).
Best Ensemble Film
Nominees: A Star Is Born, Black Panther, BlacKkKlansman, Bohemian Rhapsody, Crazy Rich Asians
The nominations reflected yours truly going just 2/5 (ouch). And there were shockers. If Beale Street Could Talk, with its sprawling cast, being snubbed counts as one. I also figured The Favourite and Vice could get in. It was probably foolish to think A Star Is Born would be left out, even if its only a trifecta of actors getting the lions share of attention. BlacKkKlansman wasn’t too surprising, but the inclusion of Bohemian Rhapsody definitely is. It’s probably time to start talking about the real chance it gets a Best Picture nomination, despite many mediocre reviews. The only two I got right: Black Panther and Crazy Rich Asians. As I see it now, Star could win here. Yet I’m still going with SAG honoring a larger group of performers and I’ll go with an unprecedented MCU victory (for now).
Predicted Winner: Black Panther
Best Actor
Nominees: Christian Bale (Vice), Bradley Cooper (A Star Is Born), Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody), Viggo Mortensen (Green Book), John David Washington (BlacKkKlansman)
Four out of five here with Ethan Hawke’s work in First Reformed and his momentum from critics group being interrupted. It’s John David Washington getting in for BlacKkKlansman instead. I had Ryan Gosling for First Man in as an alternate and it’s worth mentioning that the Neil Armstrong biopic received zero nominations.
Bale and Mortensen might have shots (and maybe even Malek), but Cooper has the edge.
Predicted Winner: Cooper
Best Actress
Nominees: Emily Blunt (Mary Poppins Returns), Glenn Close (The Wife), Olivia Colman (The Favourite), Lady Gaga (A Star Is Born), Melissa McCarthy (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)
Four for five. My upset pick of Toni Collette getting recognition for Hereditary didn’t pan out. Instead it was the aforementioned Ms. Blunt in with the rest of the expected nominees. Even with Actress having lots of options in 2018, this is beginning to look like the consensus Academy five. Like the Oscar race, I expect this to come down to Close v. Gaga.
Predicted Winner: Gaga
Best Supporting Actor
Nominees: Mahershala Ali (Green Book), Timothee Chalamet (Beautiful Boy), Adam Driver (BlacKkKlansman), Sam Elliot (A Star Is Born), Richard E. Grant (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)
Five for five. Like Actress, this is also looking to be the most probable group of Oscar nominees. And it’s a genuine three-way competition between Ali, Elliot, and Grant. You could flip a coin at the moment.
Predicted Winner: Ali
Best Supporting Actress
Nominees: Amy Adams (Vice), Emily Blunt (A Quiet Place), Margot Robbie (Mary Queen of Scots), Emma Stone (The Favourite), Rachel Weisz (The Favourite)
Three for five. The exclusion of Regina King in If Beale Street Could Talk (considered somewhat of an Oscar favorite) is totally unexpected. So is the inclusion of Blunt, who got an Actress nod and was a surprise nominee two years ago for The Girl on the Train. Claire Foy didn’t get in for First Man as Margot Robbie did (that could help her chances with the Academy). Honestly, I would have picked King to win had she been named here. I could see either of the Favourite ladies possibly winning, but I’ll go with Adams (who’s also nominated in the TV race for Sharp Objects). She could also win that and probably will.
Predicted Winner: Adams
And there you have it! Expect plenty more awards show and Oscar analysis in short order.
