Tag: Cynthia Erivo

99th Academy Awards Predictions: May 6th Edition

My second helping of ranked Oscar predictions for next year’s 99th ceremony can be called the pre-Cannes estimates. That festival in the French Riviera kicks off May 12th and runs through May 23rd. It will be our first look at several potential contenders: Ryusuke Hamaguchi’s All of a Sudden, Pawel Pawlikowski’s Fatherland, Cristian Mungiu’s Fjord, Na Hong-jin’s Hope, James Gray’s Paper Tiger, and The Man I Love from Ira Sachs to name a few. Keep an eye on the blog for my individual posts exploring the viability of the screening pictures.

The Academy made some news of its own by announcing rule changes. The most significant is that actors can be nominated twice in the same category. There’s been recent examples of when this could have resulted in a performer getting two nods. I would say most recently that Sebastian Stan could have benefited. He was nominated in lead Actor for The Apprentice and a double shot was possible via A Different Man. Going back a ways, Kate Winslet won Best Actress in 2008 for The Reader and might have seen her name pop again for Revolutionary Road. In 2006, Kate’s Titanic mate Leonardo DiCaprio was in contention for Blood Diamond. He could have easily landed another shot via The Departed.

In International Feature Film, the criteria has always been that a submitting nation can choose just one entrant for consideration. While that rule holds, the Academy has added another path to get in. If a picture wins a qualifying international festival (such as Cannes, Berlin, Toronto, Sundance, Venice), it is now a contender. This would have helped Anatomy of a Fall in 2023 since France did not choose it as their representative picture, but it emerged victorious for the Palme d’Or at Cannes.

Since my last update in mid-April, Michael opened to gigantic box office and mediocre reviews. While the audience score on Rotten Tomatoes is high, critical griping could cripple its viability at the Oscars. However, I wouldn’t completely rule out the acclaimed work of Jaafar Jackson and Colman Domingo. Best Picture? Probably a bridge too far despite the gaudy numbers.

The Devil Wears Prada 2 also hit multiplexes. While Meryl Streep was a Best Actress nominee 20 years ago for the original, a second at-bat seems like a reach. The sequel could materialize, however, in Costume Design and/or Original Song where Lady Gaga has a track. Those categories won’t be forecasted until a few weeks down the line.

We also learned that Narnia: The Magician’s Nephew from Greta Gerwig will not be out (on Netflix) until 2027. I had it on the outside looking in at #11. It drops from contention this time around.

You can read all the speculation below and my next update will arrive as Cannes concludes!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)

3. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Digger (PR: 5) (E)

5. Fjord (PR: 6) (E)

6. No One Cares (PR: 6) (E)

7. Fatherland (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Dune: Part Three (PR: 10) (+2)

9. The Social Reckoning (PR: 9) (E)

10. All of a Sudden (PR: 7) (-3)

Other Possibilities:

11. Hope (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Cry to Heaven (PR: 16) (+4)

13. A Place in Hell (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Paper Tiger (PR: 21) (+7)

15. Werwulf (PR: 18) (+3)

16. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 23) (+7)

17. Josephine (PR: 17) (E)

18. Saturn Return (PR: 22) (+4)

19. The Entertainment System is Down (PR: 14) (-5)

20. Jack of Spades (PR: 24) (+4)

21. Being Heumann (PR: 15) (-6)

22. A Long Winter (PR: 13) (-9)

23. Behemoth! (PR: 25) (+2)

24. Michael (PR: 20) (-4)

25. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 19) (-6)

Dropped Out:

Narnia: The Magician’s Nephew

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Alejandro Gonzalez Iñárritu, Digger (PR: 2) (E)

3. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Cristian Mingiu, Fjord (PR: 3) (+1)

5. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Pawel Pawlikowski, Fatherland (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Jesse Eisenberg, No One Cares (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Na Hong-jin, Hope (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Tom Ford, Cry to Heaven (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Aaron Sorkin, The Social Reckoning (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Robert Eggers, Werwulf (PR: 14) (+1)

14. James Gray, Paper Tiger (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Greg Kwedar, Saturn Return (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Greta Gerwig, Narnia: The Magician’s Nephew

Ruben Östlund, The Entertainment System is Down

David Fincher, The Adventures of Cliff Booth

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Renate Reinsve, Fjord (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sandra Hüller, Fatherland (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Julianne Moore, No One Cares (PR: 3) (E)

4. Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Michelle Williams, A Place in Hell (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden (PR: 6) (E)

7. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Sandra Hüller, Rose (PR: 11) (+3)

9. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Sophie Okonedo, Clarissa (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Mason Reeves, Josephine (PR: 8) (-3)

12. Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 14) (+2)

13. Rachel Brosnahan, Saturn Return (PR: 13) (E)

14. Penélope Cruz, Bunker (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Lily Gladstone, The Memory Police (PR: 12) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Amy Adams, At the Sea

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Tom Cruise, Digger (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sebastian Stan, Fjord (PR: 4) (+1)

4. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Hanns Zischler, Fatherland (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Matt Damon, The Odyssey (PR: 6) (E)

7. Dominic Sessa, Tony (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Jaafar Jackson, Michael (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Nicholas Hoult, Cry to Heaven (PR: 9) (E)

10. John Turturro, The Only Living Pickpocket in New York (PR: 15) (+5)

11. Jeremy Allen White, The Social Reckoning (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Adam Driver, Paper Tiger (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Josh O’Connor, Jack of Spades (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Rami Malek, The Man I Love (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Three (PR: 11) (-4)

Dropped Out:

Robert Aramayo, I Swear

Pedro Pascal, Behemoth!

Brad Pitt, The Adventures of Cliff Booth

Charles Melton, Saturn Return

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mariana di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Sandra Hüller, Digger (PR: 6) (+4)

3. Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (-2)

4. Halle Bailey, No One Cares (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Daisy Edgar-Jones, A Place in Hell (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Tao Okamato, All of a Sudden (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 8) (E)

9. Scarlett Johannson, Paper Tiger (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Lesley Manville, Jack of Spades (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Esmé Creed-Miles, Sense and Sensibility (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Kirsten Dunst, The Entertainment System is Down (PR: 12) (E)

13. Caitriona Balfe, A Long Winter (PR: 9) (-4)

14. Penélope Cruz, The Invite (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Gemma Chan, Josephine (PR: 13) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Wunmi Mosaku, The Social Reckoning

Frances McDormand, Jack of Spades

Elizabeth Debicki, The Adventures of Cliff Booth

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Paul Giamatti, No One Cares (PR: 1) (E)

2. John Goodman, Digger (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Robert Pattinson, The Odyssey (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning (PR: 6) (-1)

7. Colman Domingo, Michael (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Andrew Scott, A Place in Hell (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Tom Holland, The Odyssey (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Jesse Plemons, Digger (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Channing Tatum, Josephine (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Mark Ruffalo, Being Heumann (PR: 9) (-3)

13. David Oyelowo, Clarissa (PR: 13) (E)

14. Antonio Banderas, Tony (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Cry to Heaven (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Daniel Brühl, The Entertainment System is Down

Riz Ahmed, Digger

    99th Academy Awards Predictions: April 19th Edition

    Barely a month beyond the 98th edition of the Academy Awards, we have arrived at my first ranked predictions for the 99th ceremony. We begin with six major categories – Best Picture, Director, and the four acting derbies.

    I gave you my first ranked glimpses for the previous telecast around the same time last year in these same races. How did that impossibly early forecast turn out? I correctly called four of the eventual ten BP nominees with Hamnet, Marty Supreme, Sentimental Value, and Sinners. Winner One Battle After Another as well as Bugonia, F1, and Frankenstein were listed in Other Possibilities. So 80% of the BP contenders were identified with The Secret Agent and Train Dreams not being mentioned in April 2025.

    In Best Director, three of the five filmmakers were predicted: Ryan Coogler (Sinners), Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme), and Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value). Statue recipient Paul Thomas Anderson from One Battle and Chloé Zhao (Hamnet) were in Other Possibilities.

    As for Best Actress, Jessie Buckley (Hamnet) swept the season and was in my predicted quintet. So was Sentimental Value‘s Renate Reinsve while Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You) and Emma Stone (Bugonia) were in Other Possibilities. Only Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue) wasn’t listed. In Best Actor, Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme) was in my quintet. Three others – winner Michael B. Jordan (Sinners), Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another), and Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon) were Other Possibilities with Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent) as the sole thespian not identified.

    My projected Supporting Actress five rightly named Teyana Taylor (One Battle) with Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value) as a possibility. Fanning’s costar Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Wumni Mosaku (Sinners), and the victorious Amy Madigan (Weapons) were not found among my possibilities. In Supporting Actor, Stellan Skarsgård from Value was in my five with winner Sean Penn (One Battle) and Delroy Lindo (Sinners) as possibilities. Battle‘s Benicio del Toro and Frankenstein‘s Jacob Elordi were not to be found yet.

    Let’s get some caveats out of the way. Some of the performers listed in lead will end up in supporting and vice versa. As an example, I figured Paul Mescal (Hamnet) would go lead for that film last year, but he was slotted in supporting. He ended up not being nominated but likely came close. For instance in this year’s listings, I don’t know if Sam Rockwell will be lead or supporting for Wild Horse Nine but my hunch says the latter at press time. The distributor will eventually clear that up.

    We will see pictures push to 2027. When I did my initial projections a year ago for 2025, Michael and The Rivals of Amziah King were thought to be releases for that calendar frame. Both are being put out in ’26. I have Michael still as a potential nominee in some competitions. Not so at this time for Rivals.

    And now the most important forewarning. Some movies you find below will turn out to be non-contenders. My inaugural look at the 98th Oscars listed Luca Guadagnino’s After the Hunt at #1 in Best Picture, Director, Actress (Julia Roberts), #4 in Supporting Actress (Ayo Edebiri), and #2 in Supporting Actor (Andrew Garfield). After its Venice festival premiere, the mixed to negative reaction drastically changed its narrative. It ended up with zero nominations. My April 2025 #1’s in the supporting fields – Ariana Grande (Wicked: For Good) and Adam Sandler (Jay Kelly) – did not make final cut either.

    So take this speculation as what it is – speculative. The picture and Best Picture will become clearer in time. That said, a reminder that 80% of the BP nominees were mentioned a year ago in addition to 100% of the directors and 80% of the lead acting hopefuls could be found in the initial post. On the flip side, nearly all of my acting picks for a nomination are coming from projected BP nominees and the percentage probably won’t be quite that high.

    When Sinners came out last year, it was a box office juggernaut with widespread critical acclaim. Yet I wondered whether the spring release could mean it would fall by the wayside months down the line. That’s why I named it in Other Possibilities for Picture, Director, Actor, and Supporting Actor. What happened months down the line? A record-setting 16 nominations with Jordan winning Actor. I won’t make the same mistake with Project Hail Mary. It has been out for weeks and already looks like a strong contender in Picture, Director, Actor, and possibly Supporting Actress. Another note – it’s not often (or maybe ever) you see a performer mentioned four times. That’s the case at the moment with the busy Sandra Hüller who is a legit threat twice in lead Actress and supporting.

    You can expect these posts to hit the blog every couple of weeks until it becomes weekly. This should occur when festival season goes into overdrive in last summer/early fall.

    BEST PICTURE

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. The Odyssey

    2. Project Hail Mary

    3. Wild Horse Nine

    4. Digger

    5. Fjord

    6. No One Cares

    7. All of a Sudden

    8. Fatherland

    9. The Social Reckoning

    10. Dune: Part Three

    Other Possibilities:

    11. Narnia: The Magican’s Nephew

    12. A Place in Hell

    13. A Long Winter

    14. The Entertainment System is Down

    15. Being Heumann

    16. Cry to Heaven

    17. Josephine

    18. Werwulf

    19. The Adventures of Cliff Booth

    20. Michael

    21. Paper Tiger

    22. Saturn Return

    23. Sense and Sensibility

    24. Jack of Spades

    25. Behemoth!

    BEST DIRECTOR

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey

    2. Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Digger

    3. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary

    4. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine

    5. Cristian Mingiu, Fjord

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden

    7. Pawel Pawlikowski, Fatherland

    8. Jesse Eisenberg, No One Cares

    9. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three

    10. Greta Gerwig, Narnia: The Magician’s Nephew

    11. Ruben Östlund, The Entertainment System is Down

    12. Tom Ford, Cry to Heaven

    13. Aaron Sorkin, The Social Reckoning

    14. Robert Eggers, Werwulf

    15. David Fincher, The Adventures of Cliff Booth

    BEST ACTRESS

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Renate Reinsve, Fjord

    2. Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning

    3. Julianne Moore, No One Cares

    4. Sandra Hüller, Fatherland

    5. Michelle Williams, A Place in Hell

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden

    7. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann

    8. Mason Reeves, Josephine

    9. Sophie Okenedo, Clarissa

    10. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie

    11. Sandra Hüller, Rose

    12. Lily Gladstone, The Memory Police

    13. Rachel Brosnahan, Saturn Return

    14. Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility

    15. Amy Adams, At the Sea

    BEST ACTOR

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Tom Cruise, Digger

    2. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary

    3. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine

    4. Sebastian Stan, Fjord

    5. Hanns Zischler, Fatherland

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Matt Damon, The Odyssey

    7. Robert Aramayo, I Swear

    8. Dominic Sessa, Tony

    9. Nicholas Hoult, Cry to Heaven

    10. Jafaar Jackson, Michael

    11. Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Three

    12. Pedro Pascal, Behemoth!

    13. Brad Pitt, The Adventures of Cliff Booth

    14. Charles Melton, Saturn Return

    15. John Turturro, The Only Pickpocket Living in New York

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine

    2. Mariana Di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine

    3. Halle Bailey, No One Cares

    4. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey

    5. Tao Okamoto, All of a Sudden

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Sandra Hüller, Digger

    7. Daisy Edgar-Jones, A Place in Hell

    8.. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary

    9. Caitriona Balfe, A Long Winter

    10. Scarlett Johansson, Paper Tiger

    11. Wunmi Mosaku, The Social Reckoning

    12. Kirsten Dunst, The Entertainment System is Down

    13. Gemma Chan, Josephine

    14. Frances McDormand, Jack of Spades

    15. Elizabeth Debicki, The Adventures of Cliff Booth

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Paul Giamatti, No One Cares

    2. John Goodman, Digger

    3. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine

    4. Colman Domingo, Michael

    5. Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine

    7. Andrew Scott, A Place in Hell

    8. Tom Holland, The Odyssey

    9. Mark Ruffalo, Being Heumann

    10. D’Pharaoh Woon-A-Tai, A Long Winter

    11. Jesse Plemons, Digger

    12. Channing Tatum, Josephine

    13. David Oyelowo, Clarissa

    14. Daniel Brühl, The Entertainment System is Down

    15. Riz Ahmed, Digger

    99th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Actress

    My first Oscar predictions for the 99th Academy Awards are underway!

    We are not even a month removed from the 98th ceremony so let us begin some ridiculously early speculation. These are my opening glimpses at the four acting derbies, Director, and Picture. They will unfold on the blog over the next few days. I already posted my take in the supporting fields and lead actor and they can be found here:

    99th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Actor
    99th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Supporting Actress
    99th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Supporting Actor

    That brings us to Best Actress. When I presented my first picks in April of 2025, it produced the most eventual nominees among the quartet of acting races. At this impossibly early stage, I correctly had the eventual winner Jessie Buckley (Hamnet) and Renate Reinsve (Sentimental Value) in the quintet. Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You) and Emma Stone (Bugonia) were listed in Other Possibilities. Only Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue) was not mentioned.

    Let’s get some caveats out of the way… it’s early. Some movies listed are likely to be pushed back or simply not turn out to be awards contenders. Actresses listed here could end up being campaigned in supporting. And there will be movies we are not even anticipating that will rise up with performances currently not on the radar.

    This inaugural post has Renate Reinsve getting a second nod in a row for Cristian Mungiu’s Fjord and Julianne Moore (No One Cares) contending for the first time since her victory in 2014’s Still Alice. As for Mikey Madison, I’m projecting 2024’s victor in the category for Anora will be up again for The Social Reckoning. Then there’s Sandra Hüller. She’s a threat to get in for Fatherland or Rose (for which she’s already won a prize at the Berlin Film Festival). At press time, I’ve got her making the cut for the latter. That’s in addition to my forecast that Hüller nabs a Supporting Actress nomination for Digger.

    Here’s the first snapshot with Best Director up next!

    TODD’S FIRST OSCAR PREDICTIONS FOR BEST ACTRESS AT THE 99TH ACADEMY AWARDS

    Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden

    Sandra Hüller, Rose

    Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning

    Julianne Moore, No One Cares

    Renate Reinsve, Fjord

    Other Possibilities:

    Amy Adams, At the Sea

    Rachel Brosnahan, Saturn Return

    Penélope Cruz, Bunker

    Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie

    Anne Hathaway, Mother Mary

    Sandra Hüller, Fatherland

    Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann

    Sophie Okonedo, Clarissa

    Mason Reeves, Josephine

    Michelle Williams, A Place in Hell

    Best Picture 2024: The Final Five

    As awards followers are aware, 2009 saw the Academy expand the Best Picture category from five movies to ten. That lasted two years and in 2011, it switched from anywhere from 5-10 with 8 or 9 as the magic number for several years. In 2021, the number reverted back to a set 10.

    What if that hadn’t happened? What if the BP derby had stayed a quintet? What pictures would have made the cut?

    On the eve of the 98th Academy Awards, let’s ponder what five would have done so at the 97th. One is for certain. We know that Sean Baker’s Anora has a reserved slot. It won five out of six awards it was up for – Picture, Director, Actress (Mikey Madison), Original Screenplay, and Film Editing.

    Picking the other 4 of 9 for the final five is less clear. Here’s my best speculation.

    The Brutalist

    Brady Corbet’s epic immigrant drama scored ten nods and won three for Adrien Brody’s lead performance, Original Score, and Cinematography. Other nods went to the director, Supporting Actress (Felicity Jones), Supporting Actor (Guy Pearce), Original Screenplay, Film Editing, and Production Design.

    Does It Make the Final Five?

    Yes and it can certainly be argued that it was second in the BP voting.

    A Complete Unknown

    James Mangold’s Bob Dylan biopic starring Timothée Chalamet landed a laudable eight nominations – BP, Director, Actor, Monica Barbaro in Supporting Actress, Edward Norton in Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay, Costume Design, and Sound. It was one of two BP nominees that went home empty-handed.

    Does It Make the Final Five?

    I don’t think it’s automatic but yes. Despite the 0 for 8 tally, the fact that it made the directing five puts it over the edge.

    Conclave

    Edward Berger’s drama about the search a new Pope also landed eight mentions with the others coming in Actor (Ralph Fiennes), Supporting Actress (Isabella Rossellini), Adapted Screenplay, Costume Design, Film Editing, Original Score, and Production Design. It won for the script.

    Does It Make the Final Five?

    Like Unknown, not automatic but I’m going with yes because of the screenplay victory.

    Dune: Part Two

    The Denis Villeneuve sequel managed five nominations with two victories in Sound and Visual Effects and at bats for Cinematography and Production Design.

    Does It Make the Final Five?

    No. That handful is nods is only half of what the 2021 predecessor achieved and Villeneuve’s omission is telling.

    Emilia Pérez

    Jacques Audiard’s crime musical easily led the ceremony with 13 nominations. There were victories in Supporting Actress (Zoe Saldaña) and Original Song. Other noms were for directing, Actress (Karla Sofia Gascón), Adapted Screenplay, International Feature Film, Cinematography, Film Editing, Makeup and Hairstyling, Original Score, another Original Song, and Sound.

    Does It Make the Final Five?

    Yes. As you may recall, Gascón’s controversial comments likely sunk the pic’s chances at International Feature Film where I’m Still Here would emerge. However, at the time of the nominations, I feel Pérez still would’ve made it in the top half of contention.

    I’m Still Here

    The Brazilian political drama from Walter Salles was the beneficiary of Emilia backlash when it took the IFF prize. It was also up for Actress (Fernanda Torres).

    Does It Make the Final Five?

    No. Even with the late breaking international prize, the three noms are second lowest of the lot.

    Nickel Boys

    RaMell Ross’s drama is the only pic with two nominations with the other coming in Adapted Screenplay.

    Does It Make the Final Five?

    No and the question was pretty much answered above.

    The Substance

    Coralie Fargeat was nominated for director in her wild anti-aging body horror saga that won Makeup and Hairstyling and was up for Actress (Demi Moore) and Original Screenplay.

    Does It Make the Final Five?

    This was the toughest one to leave off, but no. I’d have it sixth. Had Moore received Best Actress, it might be a different story.

    Wicked

    With 10 noms, the adaptation of the acclaimed Broadway musical won Costume Design and Production Design. It additionally made the ballot for Actress (Cynthia Erivo), Supporting Actress (Ariana Grande), Film Editing, Makeup and Hairstyling, Original Score, Sound, and Visual Effects.

    Does It Make the Final Five?

    The case could certainly be made, but I’m going no. No direction or screenplay inclusions make the call a bit easier.

    That means my 2024 final five consists of the alphabetically top heavy:

    Anora

    The Brutalist

    A Complete Unknown

    Conclave

    Emilia Pérez

    The 98th Academy Awards air tomorrow and down the line, I’ll give you my top 5 for that show!

    98th Academy Awards Predictions: January 13th Edition

    It has been nearly a month (!) since my last Oscar predictions on December 17th and a whole lotta activity has happened since. The Critics Choice and Golden Globe Awards aired. SAG Actor noms and BAFTA long lists were unveiled. The Directors and Producers Guild gave us their contenders. And we arrive at my penultimate picks for the 98th Academy Awards. You can expect my final predictions on Sunday or Monday.

    So what’s changed since the week before Christmas? Well, you have to read below for that!

    Best Picture

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. One Battle After Another (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

    2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Hamnet (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Frankenstein (PR: 7) (+2)

    6. Sentimental Value (PR: 5) (-1)

    7. Bugonia (PR: 10) (+3)

    8. The Secret Agent (PR: 8) (E)

    9. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 6) (-3)

    10. Train Dreams (PR: 9) (-1)

    Other Possibilities:

    11. Wicked: For Good (PR: 11) (E)

    12. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 15) (+3)

    13. Sirāt (PR: 13) (E)

    14. Weapons (PR: Not Ranked)

    15. F1 (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Jay Kelly

    The Testament of Ann Lee

    Best Director

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (+1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (-1)

    7. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Kieber Mendonça Filho, The Secret Agent (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. Oliver Laxe, Sirāt (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Clint Bentley, Train Dreams

    Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice

    Best Actress

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 3) (+1)

    3. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (-1)

    4. Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 8) (+1)

    8. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 7) (-1)

    9. Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue (PR: 9) (E)

    10. Eva Victor, Sorry, Baby (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Tessa Thompson, Hedda

    Best Actor

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon (PR: 4) (+1)

    4. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: 7) (+1)

    7. Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine (PR: 10) (+1)

    10. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 9) (-1)

    Best Supporting Actress

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Amy Madigan, Weapons (PR: 5) (+3)

    3. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (-2)

    5. Odessa A’Zion, Marty Supreme (PR: 7) (+2)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (PR: 4) (-2)

    7. Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners (PR: 9) (+2)

    8. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (-2)

    9. Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine (PR: 10) (+1)

    10. Regina Hall, One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (-2)

    Best Supporting Actor

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein (PR: 5) (+2)

    4. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (PR: 4) (-1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Andrew Scott, Blue Moon (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Miles Caton, Sinners (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. William H. Macy, Train Dreams (PR: 9) (-1)

    Dropped Out:

    Josh O’Connor, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery

    Best Original Screenplay

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Sinners (PR: 2) (+1)

    2. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (-1)

    3. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)

    5. The Secret Agent (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Sorry, Baby (PR: 8) (+2)

    7. Blue Moon (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Weapons (PR: 10) (+2)

    9. Jay Kelly (PR: 6) (-3)

    10. If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 9) (-1)

    Best Adapted Screenplay

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Hamnet (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Bugonia (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Train Dreams (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Frankenstein (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. No Other Choice (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Nuremberg (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Pillion (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. The Life of Chuck (PR: 9) (-1)

    Dropped Out:

    Hedda

    Best International Feature Film

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. The Secret Agent (PR: 3) (+2)

    2. Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)

    3. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 1) (-2)

    4. Sirāt (PR: 4) (E)

    5. No Other Choice (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. The Voice of Hind Rajab (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Left-Handed Girl (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Belén (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Sound of Falling (PR: 10) (+1)

    10. All That’s Left of You (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    The President’s Cake

    Best Animated Feature

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Zootopia 2 (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Arco (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Elio (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. In Your Dreams (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Scarlet (PR: 9) (+2)

    8. Endless Cookie (PR: 8) (E)

    9. A Magnificent Life (PR: 7) (-2)

    10. Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – The Movie: Infinity Castle (PR: 10) (E)

    Best Documentary Feature

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. The Perfect Neighbor (PR: 1) (E)

    2. 2000 Meters to Andrivka (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Cover-Up (PR: 4) (+1)

    4. My Undesirable Friends: Part I – Last Air in Moscow (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: 7) (+2)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Come See Me in the Good Light (PR: 5) (-1)

    7. Mr. Nobody Against Putin (PR: 9) (+2)

    8. The Alabama Solution (PR: 6) (-2)

    9. Seeds (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. Cutting Through Rocks (PR: 10) (E)

    Best Casting

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Sinners (PR: 2) (+1)

    2. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (-1)

    3. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Sentimental Value (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Hamnet (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. The Secret Agent (PR: 8) (+2)

    7. Frankenstein (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (-2)

    9. Sirāt (PR: 9) (E)

    10. Weapons (PR: 10) (E)

    Bst Cinematography

    1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

    2. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Frankenstein (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Train Dreams (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Hamnet (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Nouvelle Vague (PR: 8) (+1)

    8. Sirāt (PR: 10) (+2)

    9. Bugonia (PR: 9) (E)

    10. F1 (PR: 7) (-3)

    Best Costume Design

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Sinners (PR: 3) (+1)

    3. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (-1)

    4. Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)

    5. One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (+2)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Hedda (PR: 5) (-2)

    8. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 8) (E)

    9. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 10) (+1)

    10. Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Bugonia

    Best Film Editing

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)

    4. F1 (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Sentimental Value (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Hamnet (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Frankenstein (PR: 8) (+1)

    8. The Secret Agent (PR: Not Ranked)

    9. Bugonia (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 7) (-3)

    Dropped Out:

    Sirāt

    No Other Choice

    Best Makeup and Hairstyling

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Sinners (PR: 4) (+1)

    4. The Smashing Machine (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. Kokuho (PR: 6) (+1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. One Battle After Another (PR: 5) (-1)

    7. The Ugly Stepsister (PR: 10) (+3)

    8. Marty Supreme (PR: 7) (-1)

    9. The Alto Knights (PR: 9) (E)

    10. Nuremberg (PR: 8) (-2)

    Best Original Score

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

    2. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Frankenstein (PR: 4) (+1)

    4. Hamnet (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. Sirāt (PR: 6) (+1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (-1)

    7. F1 (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Bugonia (PR: Not Ranked)

    9. Train Dreams (PR: 9) (E)

    10. Hedda (PR: 10) (E)

    Dropped Out:

    Jay Kelly

    Best Original Song

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 1) (E)

    2. “I Lied to You” from Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

    3. “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 4) (+1)

    4. “The Girl in the Bubble” from Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. “Train Dreams” from Train Dreams (PR: 6) (+1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. “Salt Then Sour Then Sweet” from Come See Me in the Good Light (PR: 5) (-1)

    7. “Last Time (I Seen the Sun)” from Sinners (PR: 7) (E)

    8. “Our Love” from The Ballad of Wallis Island (PR: Not Ranked)

    9. “Highest 2 Lowest” from Highest 2 Lowest (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. “No Place Like Home” from Wicked: For Good (PR: 8) (-2)

    Dropped Out:

    “Drive” from F1

    “Dream As One” from Avatar: Fire and Ash

    Best Production Design

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Hamnet (PR: 4) (+1)

    4. Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 6) (E)

    7. One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (E)

    8. The Secret Agent (PR: Not Ranked)

    9. Bugonia (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    The Phoenician Scheme

    Hedda

    The Fantastic Four: First Steps

    Best Sound

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. F1 (PR: 2) (+1)

    2. Sinners (PR: 1) (-1)

    3. One Battle After Another (PR: 5) (+2)

    4. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. Sirāt (PR: 7) (+2)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 4) (-2)

    7. Frankenstein (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 9) (E)

    10. Superman (PR: 10) (E)

    Best Visual Effects

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 1) (E)

    2. F1 (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Frankenstein (PR: 4) (+1)

    4. Superman (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. The Lost Bus (PR: 9) (+4)

    Other Possibilties:

    6. Sinners (PR: 5) (-1)

    7. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. Tron: Ares (PR: 7) (-1)

    9. Jurassic World: Rebirth (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. The Electric State (PR: 10) (E)

    And that equates to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:

    14 Nominations

    One Battle After Another

    13 Nominations

    Sinners

    10 Nominations

    Hamnet

    9 Nominations

    Frankenstein, Sentimental Value

    7 Nominations

    Marty Supreme

    5 Nominations

    Wicked: For Good

    4 Nominations

    It Was Just an Accident, The Secret Agent, Train Dreams

    3 Nominations

    Bugonia, F1, Sirāt

    2 Nominations

    Avatar: Fire and Ash, KPop Demon Hunters

    1 Nomination

    Apocalypse in the Tropics, Arco, Blue Moon, Cover-Up, Diane Warren: Relentless, Elio, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You, Kokuho, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, The Lost Bus, My Undesirable Friends: Part I – Last Air in Moscow, No Other Choice, The Perfect Neighbor, The Smashing Machine, Superman, 2000 Meters to Andrivka, Weapons, Zootopia 2

    83rd Golden Globe Awards Winner Predictions

    The 83rd edition of the Golden Globes Awards airs Sunday with Nikki Glaser returning for hosting duties. The Globes have a sometimes spotty history matching with Oscar and it’s a little trickier to make Academy correlations due to the Globes splitting the Picture and lead acting races into Drama and Musical/Comedy.

    That said, it would be a surprise if One Battle After Another (extremely like) and Sinners (not guaranteed) didn’t emerge victorious in their respective BP derbies. As for the acting races… that could get interesting. Let’s walk through each category with a winner and runner-up prediction and some analysis.

    I’ll have a recap up Sunday night with my thoughts and how I performed.

    Best Motion Picture – Drama

    Frankenstein, Hamnet, It Was Just an Accident, The Secret Agent, Sentimental Value, Sinners

    I would not be surprised if the Globe voters go with Hamnet, but I’ll project a Battle/Sinners narrative stays intact at the Oscars with Ryan Coogler’s vampire tale picking up the gold.

    WINNER: Sinners

    Runner-Up: Hamnet

    Best Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy

    Blue Moon, Bugonia, Marty Supreme, No Other Choice, Nouvelle Vague, One Battle After Another

    Let’s not overcomplicate this one. Battle is the heavy favorite and anything else would be a shocker.

    WINNER: One Battle After Another

    Runner-Up: Marty Supreme (? – I guess)

    Best Director

    Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another), Ryan Coogler (Sinners), Guillermo del Toro (Frankenstein), Jafar Pahani (It Was Just an Accident), Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value), Chloé Zhao (Hamnet)

    As with the Critics Choice Awards, I’m going with PTA over Coogler with a remote shot of a Panahi upset.

    WINNER: Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another

    Runner-Up: Ryan Coogler, Sinners

    Best Actress – Drama

    Jessie Buckley (Hamnet), Jennifer Lawrence (Die, My Love), Renate Reinsve (Sentimental Value), Julia Roberts (After the Hunt), Tessa Thompson (Hedda), Eva Victor (Sorry, Baby)

    Another easy one to call with Buckley potentially on her way to a seasonal sweep.

    WINNER: Jessie Buckley, Hamnet

    Runner-Up: Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value

    Best Actor – Drama

    Joel Edgerton (Train Dreams), Oscar Isaac (Frankenstein), Dwayne Johnson (The Smashing Machine), Michael B. Jordan (Sinners), Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent), Jeremy Allen White (Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere)

    It’s highly unlikely any of the nominees here will win the Oscar and probably one or two (or at best three) will make the Academy quintet. I’m going with a slight upset as most are going with Moura. I think Sinners love could prevail.

    WINNER: Michael B. Jordan, Sinners

    Runner-Up: Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent

    Best Actress – Musical or Comedy

    Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You), Cynthia Erivo (Wicked: For Good), Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue), Chase Infiniti (One Battle After Another), Amanda Seyfried (The Testament of Ann Lee), Emma Stone (Bugonia)

    Byrne is the favorite and I’m going with her though I have a nagging feeling there could be an upset and it could be Hudson, Infiniti, or Stone.

    WINNER: Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You

    Runner-Up: Emma Stone, Bugonia

    Best Actor – Musical or Comedy

    Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme), George Clooney (Jay Kelly), Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another), Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon), Lee Byung-hun (No Other Choice), Jesse Plemons (Bugonia)

    This is where the potential Oscar recipients reside this time around (unlike in 2025) and I’ll say Chalamet reigns supreme with DiCaprio and Hawke as spoilers.

    WINNER: Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme

    Runner-Up: Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another

    Best Supporting Actress

    Emily Blunt (The Smashing Machine), Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value), Ariana Grande (Wicked: For Good), Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass (Sentimental Value), Amy Madigan (Weapons), Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another)

    We will get a big clue as to whether Madigan is a potential sweeper or if Taylor or someone else become the main competition. I’ll say Aunt Gladys’s momentum continues.

    WINNER: Amy Madigan, Weapons

    Runner-Up: Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another

    Best Supporting Actor

    Benicio del Toro (One Battle After Another), Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein), Paul Mescal (Hamnet), Sean Penn (One Battle After Another), Adam Sandler (Jay Kelly), Stellan Skarsgård (Sentimental Value)

    An intriguing race as Elordi shocked all with the CCA win and is certainly a factor now. There’s also the strong possibility of one of the Battle boys getting this. I wouldn’t even discount a Mescal upset. I am (with reservations) going with Skarsgård as Value needs a boost.

    WINNER: Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value

    Runner-Up: Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another

    Best Screenplay

    Hamnet, It Was Just an Accident, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sentimental Value, Sinners

    Probably another Battle/Sinners showdown with the former more likely.

    WINNER: One Battle After Another

    Runner-Up: Sinners

    Best Non-English Language Motion Picture

    It Was Just an Accident, No Other Choice, The Secret Agent, Sentimental Value, Sirāt, The Voice of Hind Rajab

    Agent and Value are MAJOR threats though I’m going Accident.

    WINNER: It Was Just an Accident

    Runner-Up: Sentimental Value

    Best Animated Motion Picture

    Arco, Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – The Movie: Infinity Castle, Elio, KPop Demon Hunters, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, Zootopia 2

    Zoo 2 could threaten but KPop juggernaut should roll.

    WINNER: KPop Demon Hunters

    Runner-Up: Zootopia 2

    Best Original Score

    F1, Frankenstein, Hamnet, One Battle After Another, Sinners, Sirāt

    Sinners is the definite frontrunner with Battle as a possibility.

    WINNER: Sinners

    Runner-Up: One Battle After Another

    Best Song

    “Dream As One” from Avatar: Fire and Ash; “The Girl in the Bubble” from Wicked: For Good; “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters; “I Lied to You” from Sinners; “No Place Like Home” from Wicked: For Good; “Train Dreams” from Train Dreams

    Another Sinners has a chance though KPop should be… well, golden,

    WINNER: “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters

    Runner-Up: “I Lied to You” from Sinners

    Cinematic and Box Office Achievement

    Avatar: Fire and Ash, F1, KPop Demon Hunter, Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning, Sinners, Weapons, Wicked: For Good, Zootopia 2

    Sinners should take this silly little category in its third silly little year of existence.

    WINNER: Sinners

    Runner-Up: Is there one? Maybe KPop?

    And that means I have these movies winning these numbers of Golden Globes:

    4 Wins

    Sinners

    3 Wins

    One Battle After Another

    2 Wins

    KPop Demon Hunters

    1 Win

    Hamnet, If I Has Legs I’d Kick You, It Was Just an Accident, Marty Supreme, Sentimental Value, Weapons

    32nd SAG Actor Awards Nominations Reaction

    Nominations for the 32nd Actor Awards (the ceremony formerly known as the SAG Awards) were unveiled yesterday. The group’s selections added to an already tricky Oscar season to project (especially with the acting races).

    I went 20/30 in my predictions as One Battle After Another and Sinners dominated and actually fared stronger with SAG than I figured. It was also a good day for Frankenstein and a poor one for Sentimental Value, Jay Kelly, and Wicked: For Good.

    Let’s walk through each race with the nominees, how I did, and a quick take on where I see the voters going.

    Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture

    Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sinners

    How I Did: 4/5

    Frankenstein‘s impressive run continued with an unanticipated nod here. It won out over my Sentimental Value call. Value was completely blanked. As for a winner, I would currently give OBAA the slight edge over Sinners.

    Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role

    Jessie Buckley (Hamnet), Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You), Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue), Chase Infiniti (One Battle After Another), Emma Stone (Bugonia)

    How I Did: 3/5

    It’s Hudson (who I should’ve figured the SAG branch would recognize) and Infiniti making the cut instead of Cynthia Erivo (Wicked: For Good) and Sentimental‘s Renate Reinsve. Buckley is unquestionably the favorite.

    Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role

    Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme), Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another), Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon), Michael B. Jordan (Sinners), Jesse Plemons (Bugonia)

    How I Did: 4/5

    A nice showing for Bugonia with Stone and Plemons in the lead derbies. I went with The Secret Agent‘s Wagner Moura over Plemons. A note that SAG essentially ignored 2025 foreign features. Chalamet is out front though this voting body could surprise and go with DiCaprio or Hawke.

    Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role

    Odessa A’Zion (Marty Supreme), Ariana Grande (Wicked: For Good), Amy Madigan (Weapons), Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners), Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another)

    How I Did: 3/5

    The big surprise here is A’Zion. Could this give her momentum for Oscar inclusion? At the least, it probably puts her above costar Gwyneth Paltrow as far as contention. A’Zion and Mosaku are in over Emily Blunt (The Smashng Machine) and Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value). The fact that Blunt or lead Dwayne Johnson from Smashing couldn’t make it here might put the final kibosh in their Oscar hopes. I see the SAG win boiling down to Madigan or Taylor.

    Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role

    Miles Caton (Sinners), Benicio del Toro (One Battle After Another), Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein), Paul Mescal (Hamnet), Sean Penn (One Battle After Another)

    How I Did: 3/5

    Caton is a genuine shocker. He and Mescal are in the quintet over Adam Sandler (Jay Kelly) and Stellan Skarsgård (Sentimental Value). This is where I figured Sandler could materialize and his Oscar chances are fading fast. Skarsgård should still be fine for inclusion though this snub obviously makes me question any shot of emerging victorious. The suddenly resurgent Elordi and del Toro have the best hopes of a podium walk.

    Outstanding Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture

    F1, Frankenstein, Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning, One Battle After Another, Sinners

    How I Did: 3/5

    Frankenstein and Battle over Avatar: Fire and Ash and Wicked: For Good. Along with Actress, this is the easiest race to pick via Final Reckoning.

    That means these films received these numbers in terms of nominations:

    7 Nominations

    One Battle After Another

    5 Nominations

    Sinners

    3 Nominatons

    Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme

    2 Nominations

    Bugonia

    1 Nomination

    Blue Moon, F1, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You, Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning, Song Sung Blue, Weapons, Wicked: For Good

    The Actor Awards air March 1 and I’ll have reaction up after the festivities…

    32nd SAG Actor Awards Nominations Predictions

    Now called the SAG Actor Awards and not just SAG Awards, the 32nd edition of the ceremony airs March 1 on Netflix. Nominations are out this Wednesday. Acting categories usually match Oscar at a 4/5 clip while top race Best Ensemble is usually heavy on eventual Academy BP contenders. Last year, all five SAG nominees ended up being in the BP Oscar ten. The year prior it was four.

    Here are my predictions in the six SAG Actor races with an alternate for each. I’ll have a recap up with my thoughts and how I performed on Wednesday!

    Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture

    Hamnet

    Marty Supreme

    One Battle After Another

    Sentimental Value

    Sinners

    Alternate – Wicked: For Good

    Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role

    Jessie Buckley, Hamnet

    Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You

    Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good

    Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value

    Emma Stone, Bugonia

    Alternate – Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another

    Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role

    Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme

    Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another

    Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon

    Michael B. Jordan, Sinners

    Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent

    Alternate – Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams

    Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role

    Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine

    Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value

    Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good

    Amy Madigan, Weapons

    Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another

    Alternate – Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners

    Outstanding Performane by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role

    Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another

    Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein

    Sean Penn, One Battle After Another

    Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly

    Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value

    Alternate – Paul Mescal, Hamnet

    Outstanding Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture

    Avatar: Fire and Ash

    F1

    Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning

    Sinners

    Wicked: For Good

    Alternate – One Battle After Another

    That means I’m projecting these numbers of nominations for these pictures:

    5 Nominations

    One Battle After Another

    4 Nominations

    Sentimental Value

    3 Nominations

    Sinners, Wicked: For Good

    2 Nominations

    Hamnet, Marty Supreme

    1 Nomination

    Avatar: Fire and Ash, Blue Moon, Bugonia, F1, Frankenstein, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You, Jay Kelly Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning, The Secret Agent, The Smashing Machine, Weapons

    98th Academy Awards Predictions: December 17th Edition

    This week’s biggest announcement about the Oscars in general is that the telecast is moving to YouTube in 2029. The most notable development for the 98th ceremony was the release of the shortlists. There are several categories slimmed down from anywhere to 10-20 possibilities – International Feature Film, Documentary Feature, the new Casting race, Cinematography, Makeup and Hairstyling, Original Score, Original Song, Sound, and Visual Effects.

    We have winners and losers to discuss from those contenders. The Testament of Ann Lee was blanked and it was expected to show up in competitions like Cinematography and the musical fields. Jay Kelly underperformed. It made the list of 20 Score hopefuls, but it didn’t get into Casting (where I’ve had it predicted for a nomination). The Lee and Kelly struggles are enough for me to drop Amanda Seyfried (Lee) from my Actress five and Adam Sandler (Kelly) from my Supporting Actor quintet. Both could still make it, but I’m more skeptical. The beneficiaries are Emma Stone (Bugonia) and Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein) as they return to their lineups. I am now also giving the 2nd Netflix BP slot to Train Dreams instead of Kelly. In Best Actor, however, I’m dropping Joel Edgerton in Train Dreams from my five in favor of Michael B. Jordan in Sinners.

    On the other hand, Wicked: For Good landed 8 shortlist mentions (tying with Sinners). Does that help its chances for a BP nom where I dropped it out of my 10 six days ago? That’s arguable. I’d certainly say it doesn’t hurt and I toyed with putting it back in. As you’ll see, it’s almost there in 11th.

    It was also a banner day for Sirât, the Spanish drama that landed a surprise 5 shortlist mentions. I’m not projecting it though the idea of the film getting a BP nod is not out of the question.

    The other news earlier this week was the review embargo lifting for Avatar: Fire and Ash. For the most part, it is being called the weakest of the trilogy. I’d say its fortunes took a tumble in BP though it’s still in the conversation.

    Let’s take a look at all the movement below!

    Best Picture

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. One Battle After Another (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

    2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Hamnet (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Sentimental Value (PR: 5) (E)

    6. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Frankenstein (PR: 7) (E)

    8. The Secret Agent (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Train Dreams (PR: 11) (+2)

    10. Bugonia (PR: 9) (-1)

    Other Possibilities:

    11. Wicked: For Good (PR: 12) (+1)

    12. Jay Kelly (PR: 10) (-2)

    13. Sirât (PR: Not Ranked)

    14. No Other Choice (PR: 14) (E)

    15. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 13) (-2)

    Dropped Out:

    The Testament of Ann Lee

    Best Director

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Kieber Mendonça Filho, The Secret Agent (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Clint Bentley, Train Dreams (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice (PR: 9) (-1)

    Dropped Out:

    Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia

    Best Actress

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 4) (+1)

    4. Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 6) (+1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 5) (-1)

    7. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue (PR: 10) (+1)

    10. Tessa Thompson, Hedda (PR: 9) (-1)

    Best Actor

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (PR: 4) (+1)

    4. Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 6) (+1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams (PR: 5) (-1)

    7. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: 8) (+1)

    8. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 7) (-1)

    9. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 10) (+1)

    10. Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Lee Byung-hun, No Other Choice

    Best Supporting Actress

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Amy Madigan, Weapons (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Odessa A’Zion, Marty Supreme (PR: 9) (+2)

    8. Regina Hall, One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (-1)

    9. Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine (PR: 10) (E)

    Best Supporting Actor

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein (PR: 6) (+1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (-1)

    7. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Adam Scott, Blue Moon (PR: 8) (E)

    9. William H. Macy, Train Dreams (PR: 9) (E)

    10. Josh O’Connor, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Jeremy Strong, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

    Best Original Screenplay

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (+1)

    2. Sinners (PR: 1) (-1)

    3. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)

    5. The Secret Agent (PR: 6) (+1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (-1)

    7. Blue Moon (PR: 8) (+1)

    8. Sorry, Baby (PR: 7) (-1)

    9. If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. Weapons (PR: 9) (-1)

    Dropped Out:

    The Testament of Ann Lee

    Best Adapted Screenplay

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Hamnet (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Bugonia (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Train Dreams (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Frankenstein (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. No Other Choice (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Nuremberg (PR: 9) (+1)

    9. The Life of Chuck (PR: 10) (+1)

    10. Hedda (PR: 8) (-2)

    Best International Feature Film

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)

    3. The Secret Agent (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Sirât (PR: 5) (+1)

    5. No Other Choice (PR: 4) (-1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. The Voice of Hind Rajab (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Left-Handed Girl (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Belén (PR: 10) (+2)

    9. The President’s Cake (PR: 9) (E)

    10. Sound of Falling (PR: 8) (-2)

    Best Animated Feature

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Zootopia 2 (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Arco (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Elio (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. In Your Dreams (PR: 6) (E)

    7. A Magnificent Life (PR: 8) (+1)

    8. Endless Cookie (PR: Not Ranked)

    9. Scarlet (PR: 7) (-2)

    10. Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – The Movie: Infinity Castle (PR: 9) (-1)

    Dropped Out:

    Boys Go to Jupiter

    Best Documentary Feature

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. The Perfect Neighbor (PR: 1) (E)

    2. 2000 Meters to Andrivka (PR: 2) (E)

    3. My Undesirable Friends: Part I – Last Air in Moscow (PR: 6) (+3)

    4. Cover-Up (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Come See Me in the Good Light (PR: Not Ranked)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. The Alabama Solution (PR: 9) (+3)

    7. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: 5) (-2)

    8. Seeds (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Mr. Nobody Against Putin (PR: 7) (-2)

    10. Cutting Through Rocks (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Put Your Soul on Your Hand and Walk

    Orwell 2 + 2 = 5

    Best Casting

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (+2)

    5. Hamnet (PR: 4) (-1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 8) (+2)

    7. Frankenstein (PR: 9) (+2)

    8. The Secret Agent (PR: Not Ranked)

    9. Sirât (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. Weapons (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Jay Kelly

    Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery

    Blue Moon

    Best Cinematography

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

    2. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Frankenstein (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Train Dreams (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Hamnet (PR: 6) (+1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (-1)

    7. F1 (PR: 9) (+2)

    8. Nouvelle Vague (PR: Not Ranked)

    9. Bugonia (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. Sirât (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Jay Kelly

    The Testament of Ann Lee

    Best Costume Design

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Hedda (PR: 9) (+4)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (E)

    7. One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (+1)

    8. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 5) (-3)

    9. Bugonia (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 7) (-3)

    Dropped Out:

    Snow White

    Best Film Editing

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)

    4. F1 (PR: 5) (+1)

    5. Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (+1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Hamnet (PR: 4) (-2)

    7. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Frankenstein (PR: 10) (+2)

    9. Sirât (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. No Other Choice (PR: 9) (-1)

    Dropped Out:

    Jay Kelly

    Best Makeup and Hairstyling

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)

    3. The Smashing Machine (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Sinners (PR: 4) (E)

    5. One Battle After Another (PR: 9) (+4)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Kokuho (PR: Not Ranked)

    7. Marty Supreme (PR: Not Ranked)

    8. Nuremberg (PR: Not Ranked)

    9. The Alto Knights (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. The Ugly Stepsister (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Bugonia

    28 Years Later

    Weapons

    Wolf Man

    Kiss of the Spider Woman

    Best Original Score

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

    2. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Hamnet (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Frankenstein (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Sirât (PR: 9) (+3)

    7. F1 (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Jay Kelly (PR: 6) (-2)

    9. Train Dreams (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. Hedda (PR: 10) (E)

    Dropped Out:

    The Testament of Ann Lee

    Best Original Song

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. “Golden” from Kpop Demon Hunters (PR: 1) (E)

    2. “I Lied to You” from Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

    3. “The Girl in the Bubble” from Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (E)

    4. “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 4) (E)

    5. “Salt Then Sour Then Sweet” from Come See Me in the Good Light (PR: 9) (+4)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. “Train Dreams” from Train Dreams (PR: 6) (E)

    7. “Last Time (I Seen the Sun)” from Sinners (PR: 8) (+1)

    8. “No Place Like Home” from Wicked: For Good (PR: 7) (-1)

    9. “Drive” from F1 (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. “Dream As One” from Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 10) (E)

    Dropped Out:

    “Clothed by the Sun” from The Testament of Ann Lee

    Best Production Design

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Sinners (PR: 4) (+2)

    3. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (-1)

    4. Hamnet (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 6) (E)

    7. One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (+1)

    8. The Phoenician Scheme (PR: 10) (+2)

    9. Hedda (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. The Fantastic Four: First Steps (PR: 9) (-1)

    Dropped Out:

    The Testament of Ann Lee

    Best Sound

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

    2. F1 (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Wicked: For Good (PR: 4) (E)

    5. One Battle After Another (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Frankenstein (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Sirât (PR: Not Ranked)

    8. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. Superman (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Warfare

    The Testament of Ann Lee

    Marty Supreme

    Best Visual Effects

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 1) (E)

    2. F1 (PR: 3) (+1)

    3. Superman (PR: 2) (-1)

    4. Frankenstein (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Sinners (PR: Not Ranked)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Tron: Ares (PR: 10) (+3)

    8. Jurassic World: Rebirth (PR: Not Ranked)

    9. The Lost Bus (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. The Electric State (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    The Fantastic Four: First Steps

    Mickey 17

    How to Train Your Dragon

    And that leaves these movies generating these numbers of nominations:

    14 Nominations

    One Battle After Another, Sinners

    10 Nominations

    Hamnet

    9 Nominations

    Frankenstein, Sentimental Value

    8 Nominations

    Marty Supreme

    6 Nominations

    Wicked: For Good

    4 Nominations

    It Was Just an Accident, The Secret Agent

    3 Nominations

    Bugonia, F1, Train Dreams

    2 Nominations

    Avatar: Fire and Ash, Come See Me in the Good Light, KPop Demon Hunters

    1 Nomination

    Arco, Blue Moon, Cover-Up, Diane Warren: Relentless, Elio, Hedda, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, My Undesirable Friends: Part I – Last Air in Moscow, No Other Choice, The Perfect Neighbor, Sirât, The Smashing Machine, Superman, 2000 Meters to Andrivka, Weapons, Zootopia 2

    98th Academy Awards Predictions: December 11th Edition

    There’s been a whole lotta precursor developments since my last Oscar predictions update on November 23rd. Critics groups are weighing in with their best-of choices, the review embargo for Marty Supreme lifted while the social embargo lapsed for the upcoming Avatar: Fire and Ash. Most importantly, the Critics’ Choice and Golden Globe voters revealed their nominees along with the National Board of Review (NBR) and American Film Institute (AFI).

    One thing seems certain in that One Battle After Another is the easy frontrunner for Best Picture. Is it a guaranteed victory? No, but it would have to encounter some bumps in the road for the narrative to change. That’s yet to happen.

    At this juncture, I also think Frankenstein, Hamnet, It Was Just an Accident, Marty Supreme, Sentimental Value, and Sinners are safe choices for BP inclusion. That leaves several pics vying for three slots. Will either of the big-budget sequels (Avatar: Fire and Ash, Wicked: For Good) make it? Can Jay Kelly recover after a noticeable Globes omission or is Train Dreams the other Netflix nominee along with Frankenstein? Will The Secret Agent make it three international contenders in the ten? Or could No Other Choice make it four? Or do Bugonia (which has been doing well in precursors) or The Testament of Ann Lee (which has been struggling in precursors) make the cut?

    My mid-December snapshot of prognostication answers those questions… for now. The Secret Agent and Bugonia are now in my top 10 with the mega-sequels Wicked and Avatar falling out. I, perhaps stubbornly, am sticking with Jay Kelly in the lineup. I came very close to replacing it with Train Dreams.

    In Best Actress, Cynthia Erivo’s work in Wicked drops in favor of Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You). In Actor, Joel Edgerton (Train Dreams) rises with George Clooney as Jay Kelly falling out of the contending quintet (even with the latter’s movie clinging to a BP nom). In Supporting Actor, Benicio del Toro jumps from 6th to 2nd and over his Battle costar Sean Penn. I still have both getting in with Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein) now on the outside looking in. Director and Supporting Actress remain the same with some movement in the rankings.

    You can read all the movement below!

    Best Picture

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. One Battle After Another (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

    2. Sinners (PR: 3) (+1)

    3. Hamnet (PR: 2) (-1)

    4. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Sentimental Value (PR: 5) (E)

    6. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Frankenstein (PR: 7) (E)

    8. The Secret Agent (PR: 12) (+4)

    9. Bugonia (PR: 11) (+2)

    10. Jay Kelly (PR: 8) (-2)

    Other Possibilities:

    11. Train Dreams (PR: 13) (+2)

    12. Wicked: For Good (PR: 9) (-3)

    13. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 10) (-3)

    14. No Other Choice (PR: 15) (+1)

    15. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 14) (-1)

    Best Director

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 3) (+1)

    3. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PR: 2) (-1)

    4. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident (PR: 5) (+1)

    5. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (-1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Kieber Mendonça Filho, The Secret Agent (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia (PR: 10) (E)

    Dropped Out

    Clint Bentley, Train Dreams

    Best Actress

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another (PR: 4) (+1)

    4. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 7) (+3)

    5. Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 3) (-2)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 5) (-2)

    8. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Tessa Thompson, Hedda (PR: 10) (+1)

    10. Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue (PR: 9) (-1)

    Best Actor

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon (PR: 4) (+1)

    4. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams (PR: 7) (+2)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 6) (E)

    7. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (-2)

    8. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: 9) (+1)

    9. Lee Byung-hun, No Other Choice (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 8) (-2)

    Dropped Out:

    Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone

    Best Supporting Actress

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value (PR: 4) (+1)

    4. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. Amy Madigan, Weapons (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Regina Hall, One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (+1)

    8. Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners (PR: 9) (+1)

    9. Odessa A’Zion, Marty Supreme (PR: 7) (-2)

    10. Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman

    Best Supporting Actor

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another (PR: 6) (+4)

    3. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (-1)

    4. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (PR: 4) (-1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein (PR: 5) (-1)

    7. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Andrew Scott, Blue Moon (PR: 8) (E)

    9. William H. Macy, Train Dreams (PR: 9) (E)

    10. Jeremy Strong, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 10) (E)

    Best Original Screenplay

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Sinners (PR: 2) (+1)

    2. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (-1)

    3. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 4) (+1)

    4. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. The Secret Agent (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Sorry, Baby (PR: 10) (+3)

    8. Blue Moon (PR: 7) (-1)

    9. Weapons (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 9) (-1)

    Dropped Out:

    Is This Thing On?

    Best Adapted Screenplay

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Hamnet (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Bugonia (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Train Dreams (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Frankenstein (PR: 6) (+1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. No Other Choice (PR: 5) (-1)

    7. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Hedda (PR: 9) (+1)

    9. Nuremberg (PR: 10) (+1)

    10. The Life of Chuck (PR: 8) (-2)

    Best International Feature Film

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 2) (+1)

    2. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (-1)

    3. The Secret Agent (PR: 3) (E)

    4. No Other Choice (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Sirât (PR: 7) (+2)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. The Voice of Hind Rajab (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Left-Handed Girl (PR: 5) (-2)

    8. Sound of Falling (PR: 9) (+1)

    9. The President’s Cake (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. Belén (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    The Love That Remains

    Best Animated Feature

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Zootopia 2 (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Arco (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Elio (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. In Your Dreams (PR: 7) (+1)

    7. Scarlet (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. A Magnificent Life (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – The Movie: Infinity Castle (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. Boys Go to Jupiter (PR: 9) (-1)

    Dropped Out:

    Lost in Starlight

    Best Documentary Feature

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. The Perfect Neighbor (PR: 1) (E)

    2. 2000 Meters to Andrivka (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Put Your Soul on Your Hand and Walk (PR: 4) (+1)

    4. Cover-Up (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. My Undesirable Friends: Part I – Last Air in Moscow (PR: Not Ranked)

    7. Mr. Nobody Against Putin (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. Seeds (PR: 7) (-1)

    9. The Alabama Solution (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. Orwell 2 +2 = 5 (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Deaf President Now!

    Cutting Through Rocks

    Best Casting

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Hamnet (PR: 5) (+1)

    5. Jay Kelly (PR: 4) (-1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Sentimental Value (PR: 8) (+2)

    7. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (-2)

    9. Frankenstein (PR: 9) (E)

    10. Blue Moon (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Rental Family

    Best Cinematography

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

    2. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Frankenstein (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Train Dreams (PR: 5) (+1)

    5. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (+1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Hamnet (PR: 4) (-2)

    7. Jay Kelly (PR: 8) (+1)

    8. Bugonia (PR: 10) (+2)

    9. F1 (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 7) (-3)

    Dropped Out:

    Avatar: Fire and Ash

    Best Costume Design

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (E)

    7. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 8) (+1)

    8. One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (-1)

    9. Hedda (PR: 9) (E)

    10. Snow White (PR: 10) (E)

    Best Film Editing

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)

    5. F1 (PR: 6) (+1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Sentimental Value (PR: 5) (-1)

    7. It Was Just an Accident (PR: Not Ranked)

    8. Jay Kelly (PR: 7) (-1)

    9. No Other Choice (PR: 10) (+1)

    10. Frankenstein (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Wicked: For Good

    Avatar: Fire and Ash

    Best Makeup and Hairstyling

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)

    3. The Smashing Machine (PR: 4) (+1)

    4. Sinners (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. Bugonia (PR: 8) (+3)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. 28 Years Later (PR: 5) (-1)

    7. Weapons (PR: 10) (+3)

    8. Wolf Man (PR: 6) (-2)

    9. One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (-2)

    10. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 9) (-1)

    Dropped Out:

    Bugonia

    Best Original Score

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

    2. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Hamnet (PR: 4) (+1)

    4. Frankenstein (PR: 6) (+2)

    5. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (-2)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (-1)

    7. F1 (PR: Not Ranked)

    8. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 7) (-1)

    9. Sirât (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. Hedda (PR: 10) (E)

    Dropped Out:

    Sentimental Value

    Wicked: For Good

    Best Original Song

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 1) (E)

    2. “I Lied to You” from Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

    3. “The Girl in the Bubble” from Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (E)

    4. “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 4) (E)

    5. “Clothed by the Sun” from The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. “Train Dreams” from Train Dreams (PR: 6) (E)

    7. “No Place Like Home” from Wicked: For Good (PR: 7) (E)

    8. “Last Time (I Seen the Sun)” from Sinners (PR: 8) (E)

    9. “Salt Then Sour Then Sweet” from Come See Me in the Good Light (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. “Dream As One” from Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 10) (E)

    Dropped Out:

    “Highest 2 Lowest” from Highest 2 Lowest

    Best Production Design

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Hamnet (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Sinners (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 6) (E)

    7. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 8) (+1)

    8. One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (-1)

    9. The Fantastic Four: First Steps (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. The Phoenician Scheme (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Kiss of the Spider Woman

    Bugonia

    Best Sound

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

    2. F1 (PR: 3) (+1)

    3. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 2) (-1)

    4. One Battle After Another (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (+1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Frankenstein (PR: 8) (+2)

    7. Warfare (PR: 9) (+2)

    8. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 5) (-3)

    9. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. Marty Supreme (PR: 10) (E)

    Dropped Out:

    Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

    Best Visual Effects

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Superman (PR: 3) (+1)

    3. F1 (PR: 4) (+1)

    4. Frankenstein (PR: 5) (+1)

    5. The Fantastic Four: First Steps (PR: 7) (+2)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (-4)

    7. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. Mickey 17 (PR: 8) (E)

    9. How to Train Your Dragon (PR: 10) (+1)

    10. Tron: Ares (PR: 9) (-1)

    And that works out to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:

    13 Nominations

    One Battle After Another

    12 Nominations

    Sinners

    10 Nominations

    Hamnet

    9 Nominations

    Marty Supreme

    8 Nominations

    Frankenstein

    7 Nominations

    Sentimental Value

    6 Nominations

    Wicked: For Good

    4 Nominations

    It Was Just an Accident, Jay Kelly

    3 Nominations

    Bugonia, F1, The Secret Agent, Train Dreams

    2 Nominations

    Avatar: Fire and Ash, KPop Demon Hunters, The Testament of Ann Lee

    1 Nomination

    2000 Meters to Andrivka, Apocalypse in the Tropics, Arco, Blue Moon, Cover-Up, Diane Warren: Relentless, Elio, The Fantastic Four: First Steps, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You, Kiss of the Spider Woman, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, No Other Choice, The Perfect Neighbor, Put Your Soul on Your Hand and Walk, Sirât, The Smashing Machine, Superman, Weapons, Zootopia 2