Tag: Halle Bailey

99th Academy Awards Predictions: May 6th Edition

My second helping of ranked Oscar predictions for next year’s 99th ceremony can be called the pre-Cannes estimates. That festival in the French Riviera kicks off May 12th and runs through May 23rd. It will be our first look at several potential contenders: Ryusuke Hamaguchi’s All of a Sudden, Pawel Pawlikowski’s Fatherland, Cristian Mungiu’s Fjord, Na Hong-jin’s Hope, James Gray’s Paper Tiger, and The Man I Love from Ira Sachs to name a few. Keep an eye on the blog for my individual posts exploring the viability of the screening pictures.

The Academy made some news of its own by announcing rule changes. The most significant is that actors can be nominated twice in the same category. There’s been recent examples of when this could have resulted in a performer getting two nods. I would say most recently that Sebastian Stan could have benefited. He was nominated in lead Actor for The Apprentice and a double shot was possible via A Different Man. Going back a ways, Kate Winslet won Best Actress in 2008 for The Reader and might have seen her name pop again for Revolutionary Road. In 2006, Kate’s Titanic mate Leonardo DiCaprio was in contention for Blood Diamond. He could have easily landed another shot via The Departed.

In International Feature Film, the criteria has always been that a submitting nation can choose just one entrant for consideration. While that rule holds, the Academy has added another path to get in. If a picture wins a qualifying international festival (such as Cannes, Berlin, Toronto, Sundance, Venice), it is now a contender. This would have helped Anatomy of a Fall in 2023 since France did not choose it as their representative picture, but it emerged victorious for the Palme d’Or at Cannes.

Since my last update in mid-April, Michael opened to gigantic box office and mediocre reviews. While the audience score on Rotten Tomatoes is high, critical griping could cripple its viability at the Oscars. However, I wouldn’t completely rule out the acclaimed work of Jaafar Jackson and Colman Domingo. Best Picture? Probably a bridge too far despite the gaudy numbers.

The Devil Wears Prada 2 also hit multiplexes. While Meryl Streep was a Best Actress nominee 20 years ago for the original, a second at-bat seems like a reach. The sequel could materialize, however, in Costume Design and/or Original Song where Lady Gaga has a track. Those categories won’t be forecasted until a few weeks down the line.

We also learned that Narnia: The Magician’s Nephew from Greta Gerwig will not be out (on Netflix) until 2027. I had it on the outside looking in at #11. It drops from contention this time around.

You can read all the speculation below and my next update will arrive as Cannes concludes!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)

3. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Digger (PR: 5) (E)

5. Fjord (PR: 6) (E)

6. No One Cares (PR: 6) (E)

7. Fatherland (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Dune: Part Three (PR: 10) (+2)

9. The Social Reckoning (PR: 9) (E)

10. All of a Sudden (PR: 7) (-3)

Other Possibilities:

11. Hope (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Cry to Heaven (PR: 16) (+4)

13. A Place in Hell (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Paper Tiger (PR: 21) (+7)

15. Werwulf (PR: 18) (+3)

16. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 23) (+7)

17. Josephine (PR: 17) (E)

18. Saturn Return (PR: 22) (+4)

19. The Entertainment System is Down (PR: 14) (-5)

20. Jack of Spades (PR: 24) (+4)

21. Being Heumann (PR: 15) (-6)

22. A Long Winter (PR: 13) (-9)

23. Behemoth! (PR: 25) (+2)

24. Michael (PR: 20) (-4)

25. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 19) (-6)

Dropped Out:

Narnia: The Magician’s Nephew

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Alejandro Gonzalez Iñárritu, Digger (PR: 2) (E)

3. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Cristian Mingiu, Fjord (PR: 3) (+1)

5. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Pawel Pawlikowski, Fatherland (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Jesse Eisenberg, No One Cares (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Na Hong-jin, Hope (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Tom Ford, Cry to Heaven (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Aaron Sorkin, The Social Reckoning (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Robert Eggers, Werwulf (PR: 14) (+1)

14. James Gray, Paper Tiger (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Greg Kwedar, Saturn Return (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Greta Gerwig, Narnia: The Magician’s Nephew

Ruben Östlund, The Entertainment System is Down

David Fincher, The Adventures of Cliff Booth

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Renate Reinsve, Fjord (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sandra Hüller, Fatherland (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Julianne Moore, No One Cares (PR: 3) (E)

4. Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Michelle Williams, A Place in Hell (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden (PR: 6) (E)

7. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Sandra Hüller, Rose (PR: 11) (+3)

9. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Sophie Okonedo, Clarissa (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Mason Reeves, Josephine (PR: 8) (-3)

12. Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 14) (+2)

13. Rachel Brosnahan, Saturn Return (PR: 13) (E)

14. Penélope Cruz, Bunker (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Lily Gladstone, The Memory Police (PR: 12) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Amy Adams, At the Sea

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Tom Cruise, Digger (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sebastian Stan, Fjord (PR: 4) (+1)

4. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Hanns Zischler, Fatherland (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Matt Damon, The Odyssey (PR: 6) (E)

7. Dominic Sessa, Tony (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Jaafar Jackson, Michael (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Nicholas Hoult, Cry to Heaven (PR: 9) (E)

10. John Turturro, The Only Living Pickpocket in New York (PR: 15) (+5)

11. Jeremy Allen White, The Social Reckoning (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Adam Driver, Paper Tiger (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Josh O’Connor, Jack of Spades (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Rami Malek, The Man I Love (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Three (PR: 11) (-4)

Dropped Out:

Robert Aramayo, I Swear

Pedro Pascal, Behemoth!

Brad Pitt, The Adventures of Cliff Booth

Charles Melton, Saturn Return

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mariana di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Sandra Hüller, Digger (PR: 6) (+4)

3. Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (-2)

4. Halle Bailey, No One Cares (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Daisy Edgar-Jones, A Place in Hell (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Tao Okamato, All of a Sudden (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 8) (E)

9. Scarlett Johannson, Paper Tiger (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Lesley Manville, Jack of Spades (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Esmé Creed-Miles, Sense and Sensibility (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Kirsten Dunst, The Entertainment System is Down (PR: 12) (E)

13. Caitriona Balfe, A Long Winter (PR: 9) (-4)

14. Penélope Cruz, The Invite (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Gemma Chan, Josephine (PR: 13) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Wunmi Mosaku, The Social Reckoning

Frances McDormand, Jack of Spades

Elizabeth Debicki, The Adventures of Cliff Booth

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Paul Giamatti, No One Cares (PR: 1) (E)

2. John Goodman, Digger (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Robert Pattinson, The Odyssey (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning (PR: 6) (-1)

7. Colman Domingo, Michael (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Andrew Scott, A Place in Hell (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Tom Holland, The Odyssey (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Jesse Plemons, Digger (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Channing Tatum, Josephine (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Mark Ruffalo, Being Heumann (PR: 9) (-3)

13. David Oyelowo, Clarissa (PR: 13) (E)

14. Antonio Banderas, Tony (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Cry to Heaven (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Daniel Brühl, The Entertainment System is Down

Riz Ahmed, Digger

    99th Academy Awards Predictions: April 19th Edition

    Barely a month beyond the 98th edition of the Academy Awards, we have arrived at my first ranked predictions for the 99th ceremony. We begin with six major categories – Best Picture, Director, and the four acting derbies.

    I gave you my first ranked glimpses for the previous telecast around the same time last year in these same races. How did that impossibly early forecast turn out? I correctly called four of the eventual ten BP nominees with Hamnet, Marty Supreme, Sentimental Value, and Sinners. Winner One Battle After Another as well as Bugonia, F1, and Frankenstein were listed in Other Possibilities. So 80% of the BP contenders were identified with The Secret Agent and Train Dreams not being mentioned in April 2025.

    In Best Director, three of the five filmmakers were predicted: Ryan Coogler (Sinners), Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme), and Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value). Statue recipient Paul Thomas Anderson from One Battle and Chloé Zhao (Hamnet) were in Other Possibilities.

    As for Best Actress, Jessie Buckley (Hamnet) swept the season and was in my predicted quintet. So was Sentimental Value‘s Renate Reinsve while Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You) and Emma Stone (Bugonia) were in Other Possibilities. Only Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue) wasn’t listed. In Best Actor, Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme) was in my quintet. Three others – winner Michael B. Jordan (Sinners), Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another), and Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon) were Other Possibilities with Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent) as the sole thespian not identified.

    My projected Supporting Actress five rightly named Teyana Taylor (One Battle) with Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value) as a possibility. Fanning’s costar Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Wumni Mosaku (Sinners), and the victorious Amy Madigan (Weapons) were not found among my possibilities. In Supporting Actor, Stellan Skarsgård from Value was in my five with winner Sean Penn (One Battle) and Delroy Lindo (Sinners) as possibilities. Battle‘s Benicio del Toro and Frankenstein‘s Jacob Elordi were not to be found yet.

    Let’s get some caveats out of the way. Some of the performers listed in lead will end up in supporting and vice versa. As an example, I figured Paul Mescal (Hamnet) would go lead for that film last year, but he was slotted in supporting. He ended up not being nominated but likely came close. For instance in this year’s listings, I don’t know if Sam Rockwell will be lead or supporting for Wild Horse Nine but my hunch says the latter at press time. The distributor will eventually clear that up.

    We will see pictures push to 2027. When I did my initial projections a year ago for 2025, Michael and The Rivals of Amziah King were thought to be releases for that calendar frame. Both are being put out in ’26. I have Michael still as a potential nominee in some competitions. Not so at this time for Rivals.

    And now the most important forewarning. Some movies you find below will turn out to be non-contenders. My inaugural look at the 98th Oscars listed Luca Guadagnino’s After the Hunt at #1 in Best Picture, Director, Actress (Julia Roberts), #4 in Supporting Actress (Ayo Edebiri), and #2 in Supporting Actor (Andrew Garfield). After its Venice festival premiere, the mixed to negative reaction drastically changed its narrative. It ended up with zero nominations. My April 2025 #1’s in the supporting fields – Ariana Grande (Wicked: For Good) and Adam Sandler (Jay Kelly) – did not make final cut either.

    So take this speculation as what it is – speculative. The picture and Best Picture will become clearer in time. That said, a reminder that 80% of the BP nominees were mentioned a year ago in addition to 100% of the directors and 80% of the lead acting hopefuls could be found in the initial post. On the flip side, nearly all of my acting picks for a nomination are coming from projected BP nominees and the percentage probably won’t be quite that high.

    When Sinners came out last year, it was a box office juggernaut with widespread critical acclaim. Yet I wondered whether the spring release could mean it would fall by the wayside months down the line. That’s why I named it in Other Possibilities for Picture, Director, Actor, and Supporting Actor. What happened months down the line? A record-setting 16 nominations with Jordan winning Actor. I won’t make the same mistake with Project Hail Mary. It has been out for weeks and already looks like a strong contender in Picture, Director, Actor, and possibly Supporting Actress. Another note – it’s not often (or maybe ever) you see a performer mentioned four times. That’s the case at the moment with the busy Sandra Hüller who is a legit threat twice in lead Actress and supporting.

    You can expect these posts to hit the blog every couple of weeks until it becomes weekly. This should occur when festival season goes into overdrive in last summer/early fall.

    BEST PICTURE

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. The Odyssey

    2. Project Hail Mary

    3. Wild Horse Nine

    4. Digger

    5. Fjord

    6. No One Cares

    7. All of a Sudden

    8. Fatherland

    9. The Social Reckoning

    10. Dune: Part Three

    Other Possibilities:

    11. Narnia: The Magican’s Nephew

    12. A Place in Hell

    13. A Long Winter

    14. The Entertainment System is Down

    15. Being Heumann

    16. Cry to Heaven

    17. Josephine

    18. Werwulf

    19. The Adventures of Cliff Booth

    20. Michael

    21. Paper Tiger

    22. Saturn Return

    23. Sense and Sensibility

    24. Jack of Spades

    25. Behemoth!

    BEST DIRECTOR

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey

    2. Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Digger

    3. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary

    4. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine

    5. Cristian Mingiu, Fjord

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden

    7. Pawel Pawlikowski, Fatherland

    8. Jesse Eisenberg, No One Cares

    9. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three

    10. Greta Gerwig, Narnia: The Magician’s Nephew

    11. Ruben Östlund, The Entertainment System is Down

    12. Tom Ford, Cry to Heaven

    13. Aaron Sorkin, The Social Reckoning

    14. Robert Eggers, Werwulf

    15. David Fincher, The Adventures of Cliff Booth

    BEST ACTRESS

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Renate Reinsve, Fjord

    2. Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning

    3. Julianne Moore, No One Cares

    4. Sandra Hüller, Fatherland

    5. Michelle Williams, A Place in Hell

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden

    7. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann

    8. Mason Reeves, Josephine

    9. Sophie Okenedo, Clarissa

    10. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie

    11. Sandra Hüller, Rose

    12. Lily Gladstone, The Memory Police

    13. Rachel Brosnahan, Saturn Return

    14. Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility

    15. Amy Adams, At the Sea

    BEST ACTOR

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Tom Cruise, Digger

    2. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary

    3. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine

    4. Sebastian Stan, Fjord

    5. Hanns Zischler, Fatherland

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Matt Damon, The Odyssey

    7. Robert Aramayo, I Swear

    8. Dominic Sessa, Tony

    9. Nicholas Hoult, Cry to Heaven

    10. Jafaar Jackson, Michael

    11. Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Three

    12. Pedro Pascal, Behemoth!

    13. Brad Pitt, The Adventures of Cliff Booth

    14. Charles Melton, Saturn Return

    15. John Turturro, The Only Pickpocket Living in New York

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine

    2. Mariana Di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine

    3. Halle Bailey, No One Cares

    4. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey

    5. Tao Okamoto, All of a Sudden

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Sandra Hüller, Digger

    7. Daisy Edgar-Jones, A Place in Hell

    8.. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary

    9. Caitriona Balfe, A Long Winter

    10. Scarlett Johansson, Paper Tiger

    11. Wunmi Mosaku, The Social Reckoning

    12. Kirsten Dunst, The Entertainment System is Down

    13. Gemma Chan, Josephine

    14. Frances McDormand, Jack of Spades

    15. Elizabeth Debicki, The Adventures of Cliff Booth

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Paul Giamatti, No One Cares

    2. John Goodman, Digger

    3. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine

    4. Colman Domingo, Michael

    5. Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine

    7. Andrew Scott, A Place in Hell

    8. Tom Holland, The Odyssey

    9. Mark Ruffalo, Being Heumann

    10. D’Pharaoh Woon-A-Tai, A Long Winter

    11. Jesse Plemons, Digger

    12. Channing Tatum, Josephine

    13. David Oyelowo, Clarissa

    14. Daniel Brühl, The Entertainment System is Down

    15. Riz Ahmed, Digger

    April 17-19 Box Office Predictions

    Lee Cronin’s The Mummy will attempt to scare up decent business as the weekend’s major new wide release, but The Super Mario Galaxy Movie looks to rule the charts for a third frame. You can peruse my detailed rap on the reboot of The Mummy franchise here:

    Lee Cronin’s The Mummy Box Office Prediction

    My projection for the newcomer likely puts it in a battle for second place with the fifth weekend of Project Hail Mary. I’m looking for both to land in the mid to higher teens and I’ll give the latter a slight edge for a third weekend in the runner-up position. Warner Bros. would love for Cronin’s horror version of The Mummy to hit $20M+, but I’m skeptical.

    As for Mario, it should have no trouble scoring the trifecta atop the box office mountain with earnings between $35-40 million. Its streak in the top spot should end in weekend #4 with musical biopic Michael slated to beat it.

    Holdovers romances The Drama and You, Me & Tuscany should fill out the rest of the top five and here’s how I envision it shaking out:

    1. The Super Mario Galaxy Movie

    Predicted Gross: $38.4 million

    2. Project Hail Mary

    Predicted Gross: $17.9 million

    3. Lee Cronin’s The Mummy

    Predicted Gross: $17.2 million

    4. The Drama

    Predicted Gross: $6 million

    5. You, Me & Tuscany

    Predicted Gross: $4.5 million

    Box Office Results (April 10-12)

    The Super Mario Galaxy Movie didn’t hold as well as 2023 predecessor The Super Mario Bros. Movie, but its 48% decline was still commendable. The Illumination Entertainment sequel took in $68 million, falling below my generous $79.1 million prediction. In two weeks, the total has soared to $307 million.

    Project Hail Mary eased only 24% in second with $24.1 million, ahead of my $20.6 million forecast. The sci-fi blockbuster stands at $256 million after four weeks.

    The Drama with Zendaya and Robert Pattinson was third, with a solid 39% dip to $8.7 million. That’s on track with my $8.5 million call resulting in a two-week take of $30 million.

    You, Me & Tuscany was fourth as the romantic comedy with Halle Bailey and Regé-Jean Page stalled with $7.7 million. I had it making more at $11.2 million.

    Finally, Hoppers was fifth with $4.1 million (I said $3.6 million) as the Pixar effort jumped to $157 million after six weeks.

    And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

    April 10-12 Box Office Predictions

    After a potent start over the Easter frame, The Super Mario Galaxy Movie should easily rule the box office world yet again. You, Me & Tuscany is the only wide release newcomer likely to crack the top 5 and you can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:

    You, Me & Tuscany Box Office Prediction

    Tuscany, the picturesque rom-com with Halle Bailey and Regé-Jean Page is a little bit of a mystery. It could bottom out in the high single digits or manage teens. I’m splitting the difference for a third place showing in the low double digits.

    Mario Galaxy nearly rose to the opening earnings of 2023 predecessor The Super Mario Bros. Movie, but fell a bit short for what was still a terrific premiere (more on that below). Part 1 took in over $90 million in its sophomore outing and I’ve got this not reaching those heights.

    Project Hail Mary should stay strong in second place and might witness the lowest percentage drop of the holdovers.

    The Drama with Zendaya and Robert Pattinson opened in line with expectations. With a B Cinemascore grade (which is so-so), it could see a decline in the 50% range. However, I suspect it may ease in the lower 40s.

    Hoppers should round out the top five and here’s I see it shaking out:

    1. The Super Mario Galaxy Movie

    Predicted Gross: $79.1 million

    2. Project Hail Mary

    Predicted Gross: $20.6 million

    3. You, Me & Tuscany

    Predicted Gross: $11.2 million

    4. The Drama

    Predicted Gross: $8.5 million

    5. Hoppers

    Predicted Gross: $3.6 million

    Box Office Results (April 3-5)

    Family audiences were certainly over the moon for The Super Mario Galaxy Movie as it hauled in $131.7 million from Friday to Sunday and $190.8 million since its Wednesday bow. While that doesn’t match the $204 million that 2023’s original banked, it shows that this franchise is on firm footing. The respective grosses eclipsed my predictions of $126.5 million and $171.2 million.

    Project Hail Mary dropped to second after two weeks in first place with $31.7 million, a tad shy of my $35.2 million forecast. The sci-fi tale boasts $218 million in its coffers after three weeks.

    The Drama, as mentioned, was on par with most estimates at $14.3 million in third. I thought it might climb a little higher with a $16.7 million call. It will be interesting to see if it fades quickly or has some staying power.

    Hoppers was fourth with $5.8 million as the Disney/Pixar animated flick had its most significant percentage drop thanks to Mario and Luigi. I had it at $8 million. The five-week cumulation is $149 million.

    Fifth place went to Reminders of Him with $2.2 million (I said $2.9 million) and $45 million after four weeks.

    And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

    You, Me & Tuscany Box Office Prediction

    The Little Mermaid star Halle Bailey and Bridgerton lead Regé-Jean Page headline You, Me & Tuscany on April 10th. Universal hopes rom com fans check into the Kat Coiro (Marry Me) directed effort with a supporting cast featuring Marco Calvani, Lorenzo de Moor, Aziza Scott, Nia Vardolos, and Isabella Ferrari.

    Tuscany could benefit from a lack of competition for genre fans. While The Drama with Zendaya and Robert Pattinson will be in its second frame, I certainly wouldn’t call that your traditional romantic comedy. A worst case opening might be in line with Coiro’s Marry Me with Jennifer Lopez and Owen Wilson. It premiered to just under $8 million during a busy Christmas season.

    This should fare better and I’ll say it manages to cross double digits.

    You, Me & Tuscany opening weekend prediction: $11.2 million

    99th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Supporting Actress

    And we are off to the races with my first Oscar predictions for the 99th Academy Awards.

    We are only two weeks removed from the 98th ceremony so let us begin some ridiculously early speculation! These are my inaugural glimpses at the four acting derbies, Director, and Picture. They will unfold on the blog over the next few days. I already posted my take on Supporting Actor and it can be found here:

    99th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Supporting Actor

    We move to Supporting Actress. My super duper early selections in 2025 yielded one eventual nominee in Teyana Taylor for One Battle After Another. In the ten other possibilities, I named Elle Fanning for Sentimental Value. Eventual winner Amy Madigan (Weapons), Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass (Sentimental Value), and Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners) were not identified at that early juncture.

    Let’s get some caveats out of the way… it’s early. Some movies listed are likely to be pushed back or not be awards contenders. Actresses listed here could end up being campaigned in lead actress and vice versa when I get to Best Actress. And there will be movies we’re not even anticipating that will rise up with performances currently not on the radar.

    This initial glance raises the possibility of Meryl Streep getting in for her iconic role as Miranda Priestly in The Devil Wears Prada 2. Same goes for her costar Anne Hathaway in The Odyssey. I have both missing the cut in favor of Sandra Hüller getting a second nomination (and she could be in line for a third in lead Actress) among four first-time contenders.

    Here’s the first snapshot with Best Actor up next!

    TODD’S FIRST OSCAR PREDICTIONS FOR SUPPORTING ACTRESS AT THE 99TH ACADEMY AWARDS

    Halle Bailey, No One Cares

    Mariana di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine

    Claire Foy, Ink

    Sandra Hüller, Digger

    Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine

    Other Possibilities:

    Caitriona Balfe, A Long Winter

    Gemma Chan, Josephine

    Michaela Coel, Mother Mary

    Olivia Colman, Elsinore

    Kirsten Dunst, The Entertainment System is Down

    Daisy Edgar-Jones, A Place in Hell

    Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey

    Scarlett Johansson, Paper Tiger

    Frances McDormand, Jack of Spades

    Meryl Streep, The Devil Wears Prada 2

    Oscar Predictions: The Color Purple

    The Color Purple has existed for over four decades via book (by Alice Walker), film (Steven Spielberg’s 1985 adaptation), and Broadway play (beginning in 2005). At each turn, it’s generated awards attention. The book won a Pulitzer. The first cinematic rendering landed 11 Academy nominations (though it didn’t win any of them). The first iteration of the play also managed 11 Tony nods and a single victory in lead actress while the 2015 revival nabbed four nominations and two trophies (including Cynthia Erivo in lead actress).

    On Christmas Day, the screen treatment of the stage musical arrives in theaters. Blitz Bazawule directs with a cast including Fantasia Barrino, Taraji P. Henson, Danielle Brooks, Colman Domingo, Corey Hawkins, H.E.R., Ciara, Halle Bailey, Aunjanue Ellis, Jon Batiste, Louis Gossett Jr., and David Alan Grier. Spielberg and Oprah Winfrey (who played Sofia in the ’85 adaptation) are producers.

    Given the awards heavy past of the source material, Purple has been seen as a potentially significant Oscar hopeful since the project was announced. The review embargo has lapsed (rather late I must say) with a solid 85% Rotten Tomatoes score.

    That said, much of the critical reaction is of the *** variety and not ****. Perhaps the biggest snub of the Golden Globe nominations was this not receiving a mention in Best Motion Picture (Musical/Comedy). Days later, the Critics Choice nods threw Purple a lifeline when it made their Top 10 features.

    Any way you cut it, Purple‘s inclusion in the Oscar BP ten is far from certain. I had it listed at #10 in my latest round of predictions on Sunday. If this manages to make the SAG quintet when their nominations are announced for Best Ensemble, that would be another feather in its cap. Though don’t be surprised at all if it misses the BP cut. Bazawule’s direction is highly unlikely to be mentioned (even Spielberg couldn’t get in that race nearly 40 years back). Same goes for the Adapted Screenplay.

    Purple will manage to get other nominations. The most certain is Danielle Brooks for Supporting Actress. For months, I had her listed in 1st to win but I recently switched the top spot to Da’Vine Joy Randolph in The Holdovers. Brooks is playing the same role Winfrey played and got an Academy nod for. In 1985, Whoopi Goldberg was nominated for Actress as Celie. Fantasia Barrino hopes to replicate that success. It’s doable, but competition is fierce. I had her in 7th place on the outside looking in last weekend. 7th place is also where I had Taraji P. Henson in Supporting Actress as Shug. Margaret Avery was nominated for her portrayal in ’85 though Henson has already missed key precursors like the Globes and Critics Choice.

    Finally, there are down the line races where it could pop up. This includes Original Song (“Keep It Movin”), Production Design, and Costume Design. It won’t generate 11 mentions like the Spielberg pic. Four or five is more feasible. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

    The Color Purple Box Office Prediction

    Blogger’s Update (12/21): I am increasing my The Color Purple one-day projection from $7.9M to $12.9M

    An adaptation of the Broadway musical that was adapted from the 1985 Steven Spielberg film that was adapted from the Alice Walker novel, The Color Purple is out in theaters Christmas Day. The awards hopeful’s cast includes Fantasia Barrino (reprising her role from the play), Taraji P. Henson, Danielle Brooks, Colman Domingo, Corey Hawkins, H.E.R., Ciara, Halle Bailey, Aunjanue Ellis, Jon Batiste, Louis Gossett Jr., and David Alan Grier. Blitz Bazawule directs with Spielberg and Oprah Winfrey (who first rose to fame in the ’85 version) producing.

    The source material is obviously well-known as this hopes to attract moviegoers on the big holiday. Christmas is on a Monday in 2023 so this projection is only for that day. Obviously that limits the estimate, but that’s not the only limiting factor. Purple has not generated the Oscar buzz that it’s probably hoped for (though Brooks is a threat to win Supporting Actress). Its inclusion in Best Picture is very much in question (it missed a Golden Globe nod earlier this week).

    This should still succeed in bringing an African-American and female audience. I’m anticipating its initial day could see a gross in the higher single digits as it hopes to perform well throughout the end of the year and January.

    The Color Purple opening day prediction: $12.9 million (Monday estimate only)

    For my Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom prediction, click here:

    Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom Box Office Prediction

    For my Migration prediction, click here:

    Migration Box Office Prediction

    For my The Iron Claw prediction, click here:

    The Iron Claw Box Office Prediction

    For my Anyone but You prediction, click here:

    Anyone but You Box Office Prediction

    For my Poor Things prediction, click here:

    Poor Things Box Office Prediction

    For my Ferrari prediction, click here:

    Ferrari Box Office Prediction

    For my The Boys in the Boat prediction, click here:

    The Boys in the Boat Box Office Prediction

    For my Salaar: Part 1 – Ceasefire prediction, click here:

    Salaar: Part 1 – Ceasefire Box Office Prediction

    Oscars 2023: The State of the Supporting Actress Race (September 10th)

    My deeper dives into big races at the Oscars arrives at Supporting Actress. If you didn’t catch my take on where Supporting Actor, you can access it here:

    Oscars 2023: The State of the Supporting Actor Race (September 7th)

    The Telluride and Venice and ongoing Toronto Film Festivals have helped shed some light on various hopefuls. Penelope Cruz helped herself with the Ferrari bow in Venice. Jodie Comer could be a factor for The Bikeriders (though she could also be campaigned for in lead).

    One thing remains the same and has since Cannes. Lily Gladstone’s performance in Martin Scorsese’s Killers of the Flower Moon looks like a serious frontrunner. Obviously this could change as more pictures screen. The Color Purple, for example, has plenty of possibilities (Danielle Brooks, Taraji P. Henson, Halle Bailey).

    We have gotten some news during festival season in that Sandra Hüller will be showcased here for The Zone of Interest. However, she’s more likely to make the Actress cut for Anatomy of a Fall.

    At this stage of the predicting game, I’m shortening my possible nominees from 15 to 10. Here’s my snapshot of where I believe we are now:

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

    2. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 6) (+2)

    5. Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer (PR: 4) (-1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Viola Davis, Air (PR: 5) (-1)

    7. Penelope Cruz, Ferrari (PR: 12) (+5)

    8. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 10) (+2)

    9. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. Jodie Comer, The Bikeriders (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Rosamund Pike, Saltburn

    Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, The Nickel Boys

    Helena Bonham-Carter, One Life

    Claire Foy, All of Us Strangers

    Vanessa Kirby, Napoleon

    Niecy Nash-Betts, Origin

    Best Actor is up next!

    2023 Oscar Predictions: July 9th Edition

    The first July predictions for the 96th Academy Awards shall be known as the pre Barbie and Oppenheimer edition. They are eagerly awaited efforts from Greta Gerwig and Christopher Nolan, respectively, that are hoping to become giant blockbusters and awards players. July 21st marks the release date for both. When my next forecast arrives in a couple of weeks, reviews and buzz and financial numbers for the pair will be available.

    Since June 25th (my previous update), there’s not been too much news. We have some new trailers including Bob Marley: One Love with Kingsley Ben-Adir as the iconic reggae singer. Interestingly all the promotional materials are advertising a January 12th premiere. I’m still assuming it will get a December limited release to qualify for contention. It is something worth keeping an eye on. I will say that I found the trailer to be somewhat lackluster. With the release date confusion, I’ve taken it out of my top 25 in BP while keeping Ben-Adir and Lashana Lynch in their acting derbies.

    Frequent readers will know that releases dates are always shifting. I’m putting The Piano Lesson back in the mix even though it might not be out until 2024. You’ll see it emerge back into several competitions below.

    Festivals are beginning to tease their lineups. Luca Guadagnino’s Challengers will open Venice in September while Taika Waititi’s Next Goal Wins is tapped for Toronto. Expect plenty more announcement in the coming days and weeks.

    In Best Actor, I’ve elevated Leonardo DiCaprio (Killers of the Flower Moon) to #1 over Colman Domingo. That puts Killers atop the charts in Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor, and Adapted Screenplay. We’ll see how long its dominance lasts as other heavy hitters screen over the next few months.

    As we await the Barbie and Oppenheimer reactions, here’s my speculation as to where everything stands for the eight top categories.

    Best Picture

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Killers of the Flower Moon (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

    2. Past Lives (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (+1)

    4. The Color Purple (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. Oppenheimer (PR: 5) (E)

    6. The Zone of Interest (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Saltburn (PR: 7) (E)

    8. The Holdovers (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Poor Things (PR: 10) (+1)

    10. Air (PR: 9) (-1)

    Other Possibilities:

    11. Maestro (PR: 11) (E)

    12. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 13) (+1)

    13. Barbie (PR: 14) (+1)

    14. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 12) (-2)

    15. May December (PR: 15) (E)

    16. Napoleon (PR: 18) (+2)

    17. Challengers (PR: 17) (E)

    18. Asteroid City (PR: 16) (-2)

    19. The Piano Lesson (PR: Not Ranked)

    20. Next Goal Wins (PR: Not Ranked)

    21. Rustin (PR: 20) (-1)

    22. The Book of Clarence (PR: 23) (+1)

    23. The Nickel Boys (PR: 22) (-1)

    24. Ferrari (PR: 24) (E)

    25. The Killer (PR: 21) (-4)

    Dropped Out:

    Bob Marley: One Love

    How Do You Live?

    Best Director

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (PR: 6) (+2)

    5. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Blitz Bazawule, The Color Purple (PR: 4) (-2)

    7. Emerald Fennell, Saltburn (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 9) (+1)

    9. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 11) (+1)

    11. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 12) (+1)

    12. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 10) (-2)

    13. Ben Affleck, Air (PR: 13) (E)

    14. Ridley Scott, Napoleon (PR: 14) (E)

    15. Wes Anderson, Asteroid City (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    David Fincher, The Killer

    Best Actress

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 4) (+1)

    4. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 9) (+2)

    8. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 10) (+2)

    9. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 7) (-2)

    10. Zendaya, Challengers (PR: 8) (-2)

    11. Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla (PR: 13) (+2)

    12. Kate Winslet, Lee (PR: 11) (-1)

    13. Regina King, Shirley (PR: 12) (-1)

    14. Helen Mirren, Golda (PR: Not Ranked)

    15. Judy Greer, Eric Larue (PR: 15) (E)

    Dropped Out:

    Teyana Taylor, A Thousand and One

    Best Actor

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (+1)

    2. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 1) (-1)

    3. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 4) (+1)

    4. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (PR: 7) (+3)

    5. Barry Keoghan, Saltburn (PR: 3) (-2)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 5) (-1)

    7. Teo Yoo, Past Lives (PR: 9) (+2)

    8. Anthony Hopkins, Freud’s Last Session (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Kingsley Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 6) (-3)

    10. Joaquin Phoenix, Napoleon (PR: 12) (+2)

    11. Michael Fassbender, Next Goal Wins (PR: Not Ranked)

    12. Andre Holland, The Actor (PR: 15) (+3)

    13. David Strathairn, A Little Prayer (PR: 11) (-2)

    14. Matt Damon, Air (PR: 10) (-4)

    15. Koji Yakusho, Perfect Days (PR: 13) (-2)

    Dropped Out:

    Ed Harris, Long Day’s Journey Into Night

    Best Supporting Actress

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Viola Davis, Air (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Rosamund Pike, Saltburn (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: Not Ranked)

    9. Aunjanue Ellis, The Nickel Boys (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 11) (+1)

    11. Audra McDonald, Rustin (PR: 9) (-2)

    12. Florence Pugh, Oppenheimer (PR: Not Ranked)

    13. Tilda Swinton, The Killer (PR: 12) (-1)

    14. Lashana Lynch, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 10) (-4)

    15. Rebecca Ferguson, Dune: Part Two (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Halle Bailey, The Color Purple

    Vanessa Kirby, Napoleon

    Claire Foy, Strangers

    Best Supporting Actor

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

    2. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: Not Ranked)

    4. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Colman Domingo, The Color Purple (PR: 3) (-3)

    7. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. Ben Affleck, Air (PR: 7) (-1)

    9. Jesse Plemons, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 11) (+2)

    10. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (PR: 8) (-2)

    11. Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers (PR: 9) (-2)

    12. Glynn Turman, Rustin (PR: 13) (+1)

    13. Richard E. Grant, Saltburn (PR: 10) (-3)

    14. Glenn Howerton, BlackBerry (PR: Not Ranked)

    15. Matt Bomer, Maestro (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Mike Faist, Challengers

    Josh O’Connor, Challengers

    Corey Hawkins, The Color Purple

    Best Original Screenplay

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Past Lives (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Saltburn (PR: 3) (+1)

    3. The Holdovers (PR: 2) (-1)

    4. Air (PR: 4) (E)

    5. May December (PR: 6) (+1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 5) (-1)

    7. Maestro (PR: 8) (+1)

    8. Challengers (PR: 10) (+2)

    9. Asteroid City (PR: 7) (-2)

    10. Rustin (PR: 12) (+2)

    11. Fair Play (PR: Not Ranked)

    12. The Book of Clarence (PR: 13) (+1)

    13. Drive-Away Dolls (PR: 11) (-2)

    14. Napoleon (PR: 15) (+1)

    15. The Iron Claw (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Barbie (moved to Adapted)

    Bob Marley: One Love

    Best Adapted Screenplay

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Poor Things (PR: 6) (+4)

    3. Oppenheimer (PR: 5) (+2)

    4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (E)

    5. The Zone of Interest (PR: 2) (-3)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. The Color Purple (PR: 3) (-3)

    7. Barbie (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from Original

    8. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 7) (-1)

    9. The Piano Lesson (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. Next Goal Wins (PR: Not Ranked)

    11. The Nickel Boys (PR: 8) (-3)

    12. Freud’s Last Session (PR: 9) (-3)

    13. Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 10) (-3)

    14. BlackBerry (PR: Not Ranked)

    15. The Killer (PR: 12) (-3)

    Dropped Out:

    Strangers

    The Bikeriders

    The Boys in the Boat

    Dumb Money