The Best Picture Wouldn’t Have Been Contenders: 2009-2017

A couple of days back on the blog, I speculated about what films in the 21st century would have been nominated for Best Picture prior to a rule change in 2009. As a refresher, nearly a decade ago, the Academy changed its Best Picture Nominees from a finite five to anywhere between five to ten. In that time frame, the magic number most years has been nine (it was actually a finite 10 for 2009 and 2010 before the fluctuation change). My recent post selected two pictures from 1990-2008 that I believe would have been nominated. You can find that post here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/08/03/the-best-picture-coulda-been-contenders-1990-2008/

Today comes the inverse of that column. What if the rule had never been altered? What if the last nine Oscar ceremonies honored just five features?

In making these picks, there’s obviously one extremely easy selection – the movie that won. In naming the other four, I’m looking at factors such as number of other nods it received. For instance, if a Director won that award for their work and the Picture went to something else, that director’s film is in.

So let’s get to it in this alternative Oscar universe. I’ll be reminding you all the pictures recognized and then showing my final five.

2009

The Actual Nominees:

The Hurt Locker (Winner), Avatar, The Blind Side, District 9, An Education, Inglourious Basterds, Precious, A Serious Man, Up, Up in the Air

Had It Been Five:

The Hurt Locker, Avatar, Inglourious Basterds, Precious, Up in the Air

2010

The Actual Nominees:

The King’s Speech (W), 127 Hours, Black Swan, The Fighter, Inception, The Kids Are All Right, The Social Network, Toy Story 3, True Grit, Winter’s Bone

Had It Been Five:

The King’s Speech, The Fighter, Inception, The Social Network, True Grit

2011

The Actual Nominees:

The Artist (W), The Descendants, Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close, The Help, Hugo, Midnight in Paris, Moneyball, The Tree of Life, War Horse

Had It Been Five:

The Artist, The Descendants, The Help, Hugo, Midnight in Paris

2012

The Actual Nominees:

Argo (W), Amour, Beasts of the Southern Wild, Django Unchained, Les Miserables, Life of Pi, Lincoln, Silver Linings Playbook, Zero Dark Thirty

Had It Been Five:

Argo, Les Miserables, Life of Pi, Lincoln, Silver Linings Playbook

2013

The Actual Nominees:

12 Years a Slave (W), American Hustle, Captain Phillips, Dallas Buyers Club, Gravity, Her, Nebraska, Philomena, The Wolf of Wall Street

Had It Been Five:

12 Years a Slave, American Hustle, Gravity, Nebraska, The Wolf of Wall Street

2014

The Actual Nominees:

Birdman (W), American Sniper, Boyhood, The Grand Budapest Hotel, The Imitation Game, Selma, The Theory of Everything, Whiplash

Had It Been Five:

Birdman, American Sniper, Boyhood, The Grand Budapest Hotel, The Imitation Game

2015

The Actual Nominees:

Spotlight (W), The Big Short, Bridge of Spies, Brooklyn, Mad Max: Fury Road, The Martian, The Revenant, Room

Had It Been Five:

Spotlight, The Big Short, Mad Max: Fury Road, The Martian, The Revenant

2016

The Actual Nominees:

Moonlight (W), Arrival, Fences, Hacksaw Ridge, Hell or High Water, Hidden Figures, La La Land, Lion, Manchester by the Sea

Had It Been Five:

Moonlight, Arrival, La La Land, Lion, Manchester by the Sea

2017

The Actual Nominees:

The Shape of Water (W), Call Me by Your Name, Darkest Hour, Dunkirk, Get Out, Lady Bird, Phantom Thread, The Post, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Had It Been Five:

The Shape of Water, Dunkirk, Get Out, Lady Bird, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

And there you have it with my posts on the “what if” Best Picture happenings in Oscar world!

Oscar Watch: Breathe

Andrew Garfield goes for his second Best Actor Oscar nod in a row with Breathe, which has screened at the Toronto Film Festival. In it, Garfield plays a man diagnosed with polio who becomes a disabilities advocate. The drama marks the directorial debut of Andy Serkis, known most for giving life to CG creations in the Lord of the Rings and Planet of the Apes franchises. Other stars include Claire Foy and Hugh Bonneville.

Early reviews haven’t been too positive, but they’ve pointed out it wears its Oscar hopes on its sleeve. It’s been compared to The Theory of Everything, which did win Eddie Redmayne a statue. With Best Actor looking like it has some open slots (for now), a strong campaign could give Garfield nod #2 after last year’s Hacksaw Ridge. Yet the troubling reviews won’t help.

My Oscar Watch posts will continue…

2016 Oscars Reaction

Well… then! Who expected that ending at the Oscars?? One that involved Bonnie and Clyde, Leonardo DiCaprio, wrong envelopes, and a mild Best Picture upset! Yes, the jokes about that already infamous finale to the 89th Annual Academy Awards deserves the endless tweets about M. Night Shyamalan coming up with it and Steve Harvey being off the hook for his Miss Universe gaffe.

All in all, it was a fairly unpredictable night even up until that wild conclusion. My predictions went 14 for 21. Expect for Picture, I did get all the high-profiles race right: Damien Chazelle (La La Land) for Director, Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea) for Actor, Emma Stone (La La) for Actress, Mahershala Ali (Moonlight) for Supporting Actor, Viola Davis (Fences) for Supporting Actress, Moonlight for Adapted Screenplay, and Manchester for Original Screenplay. Animated Feature Zootopia and Foreign Language Film The Salesman were also rightly called. Down the line categories that I got right: Original Score and Song (La La and “City of Stars” from that film), Production Design and Cinematography (La La), and Visual Effects (The Jungle Book).

I whiffed on Documentary – O.J.: Made in America was the front runner and won over my upset pick I Am Not Your Negro. Others: Sound Editing (Arrival instead of Hacksaw Ridge), Sound Mixing (Hacksaw instead of La La), Makeup and Hairstyling (Suicide Squad over Star Trek Beyond), Costume Design (Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them over Jackie), and Editing (Hacksaw over La La).

And, of course, Best Picture, where La La Land won for about two minutes before the Academy’s producers pointed out a mistake and that Moonlight actually won.

The evening started on a happy note with Justin Timberlake dancing his way into the auditorium to his hit “Can’t Stop the Feeling!” from Trolls. Jimmy Kimmel did a decent job hosting for the most part. Some bits worked better than others. I enjoyed the group of tourists unknowingly being brought to the theater and his endless ribbing of Matt Damon. The candy and cookies falling down to the audience felt a little old hat. The In Memorium package was a little tough with the legends lost this year and props to Jennifer Aniston for mentioning the passing of Bill Paxton as news had just broke that morning.

Did the show feel long? Of course. It always does, but for those that stuck around… yowza! That was an Oscar ending that will not soon be forgotten.

Todd’s 2016 Final Oscar Winner Predictions

OK folks, this is it! For months, I have been pontificating on who and what will be nominated at the 89th Annual Academy Awards that air this Sunday evening. It’s time for the final predictions on the winners.

As readers of the blog know, there’s been plenty of analysis and we’re going to keep it simple for this final predictions post. Here’s my winners in all the feature film categories. I’ll have a post up Sunday night with my thoughts on how I did and the show itself…

Best Picture: 

La La Land

Best Director:

Damien Chazelle, La La Land

Best Actor

Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea

Best Actress

Emma Stone, La La Land

Best Supporting Actor

Mahershala Ali, Moonlight

Best Supporting Actress

Viola Davis, Fences

Best Adapted Screenplay

Moonlight

Best Original Screenplay

Manchester by the Sea

Best Animated Feature

Zootopia

Best Foreign Language Film

The Salesman

Best Documentary Feature

I Am Not Your Negro

Best Cinematography

La La Land

Best Costume Design

Jackie

Best Film Editing

La La Land

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Star Trek Beyond

Best Original Score

La La Land

Best Original Song

“City of Stars” from La La Land

Best Production Design

La La Land

Best Sound Editing

Hacksaw Ridge

Best Sound Mixing

La La Land

Best Visual Effects

The Jungle Book

Todd’s Updated 2016 Oscar Winner Predictions

Good Sunday all! 15 days from today, the Oscars will air and for the next three Sundays, I’ll be giving you my take on where I see each category standing. This means my winner prediction and each nominee listed in order of likelihood to take their prize.

My final predictions will post on Sunday, February 26 prior to the broadcast the next day. Let’s get to it, shall we?

BEST PICTURE

1) La La Land

2) Moonlight

3) Manchester by the Sea

4) Hidden Figures

5) Lion

6) Arrival

7) Hacksaw Ridge

8) Hell or High Water

9) Fences

BEST DIRECTOR

1) Damien Chazelle, La La Land

2) Barry Jenkins, Moonlight

3) Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea

4) Denis Villeneuve, Arrival

5) Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge

BEST ACTOR

1) Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea

2) Denzel Washington, Fences

3) Ryan Gosling, La La Land

4) Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic

5) Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge

BEST ACTRESS

1) Emma Stone, La La Land

2) Natalie Portman, Jackie

3) Isabelle Huppert, Elle

4) Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins

5) Ruth Negga, Loving

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Mahershala Ali, Moonlight

2) Dev Patel, Lion

3) Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water

4) Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals

5) Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Viola Davis, Fences

2) Naomie Harris, Moonlight

3) Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures

4) Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea

5) Nicole Kidman, Lion

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) Moonlight

2) Lion

3) Hidden Figures

4) Fences

5) Arrival

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) Manchester by the Sea

2) La La Land

3) Hell or High Water

4) The Lobster

5) 20th Century Women

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1) Zootopia

2) Kubo and the Two Strings

3) Moana

4) My Life as a Zucchini

5) The Red Turtle

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

1) The Salesman

2) Toni Erdmann

3) Land of Mine

4) A Man Called Ove

5) Tanna

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1) I Am Not Your Negro

2) O.J.: Made in America

3) 13th

4) Fire at Sea

5) Life, Animated

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1) La La Land

2) Moonlight

3) Arrival

4) Lion

5) Silence

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

1) Jackie

2) La La Land

3) Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

4) Florence Foster Jenkins

5) Allied

BEST EDITING

1) La La Land

2) Moonlight

3) Arrival

4) Hacksaw Ridge

5) Hell or High Water

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

1) Star Trek Beyond

2) Suicide Squad

3) A Man Called Ove

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

1) La La Land

2) Arrival

3) Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

4) Hail, Caesar!

5) Passengers

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1) La La Land

2) Lion

3) Moonlight

4) Jackie

5) Passengers

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

1) “City of Stars” from La La Land

2) “How Far I’ll Go” from Moana

3) “Can’t Stop The Feeling!” from Trolls

4) “Audition (The Fools Who Dream)” from La La Land

5) “The Empty Chair” from Jim: The James Foley Story

BEST SOUND EDITING

1) La La Land

2) Hacksaw Ridge

3) Arrival

4) Deepwater Horizon

5) Sully

BEST SOUND MIXING

1) La La Land

2) Hacksaw Ridge

3) Arrival

4) Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

5) 13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

1) The Jungle Book

2) Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

3) Doctor Strange

4) Kubo and the Two Strings

5) Deepwater Horizon

Next Update will be Be Sunday!

2016 SAG Awards Predictions

The final major awards ceremony before Oscar takes place tonight on TBS and TNT as the 23rd Annual Screen Actors Guild Awards airs. These awards and winners are voted by fellow thespians, so the races are a bit different in the sense that there’s no Best Picture per se. Instead it’s Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture and the five nominated pictures contains one rather glaring omission: La La Land, even though it’s the front runner at the Academy Awards.

We do have the other acting races we’re accustomed to, as well as Outstanding Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture. Let’s break each category down one by one with my predicted winners for this evening.

Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture 

Nominees: Captain Fantastic, Fences, Hidden Figures, Manchester by the Sea, Moonlight

Predicted Winner: Moonlight

Analysis: The recipient here could solidify its status as Most Likely to Win Best Picture at the Oscars if La La doesn’t. I’ll predict the SAG voters give the edge to Barry Jenkins acclaimed drama over Kenneth Lonergan’s Manchester, just like the Globes did.

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role

Nominees: Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea), Andrew Garfield (Hacksaw Ridge), Ryan Gosling (La La Land), Viggo Mortensen (Captain Fantastic), Denzel Washington (Fences)

Predicted Winner: Casey Affleck

Analysis: The five nominees match five for five with the Academy. Affleck has received the lions share of precursors thus far and I expect that to continue here. Washington is the only other possibility.

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role

Nominees: Amy Adams (Arrival), Emily Blunt (The Girl on the Train), Natalie Portman (Jackie), Emma Stone (La La Land), Meryl Streep (Florence Foster Jenkins)

Predicted Winner: Natalie Portman

Analysis: Yes, I’m going for the minor upset here as Stone is the likely front runner. Only the two of them and Streep match the Oscar nods, as SAG honored Adams and Blunt instead of Isabelle Huppert (Elle) and Ruth Negga (Loving).

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role

Nominees: Mahershala Ali (Moonlight), Jeff Bridges (Hell or High Water), Hugh Grant (Florence Foster Jenkins), Lucas Hedges (Manchester by the Sea), Dev Patel (Lion)

Predicted Winner: Mahershala Ali

Analysis: A win by either Bridges or Patel wouldn’t surprise me, but Ali has picked up a lot of critics prizes. Aaron Taylor-Johnson, surprise Globe winner for Nocturnal Animals, isn’t present here.

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role

Nominees: Viola Davis (Fences), Naomie Harris (Moonlight), Nicole Kidman (Lion), Octavia Spencer (Hidden Figures), Michelle Williams (Manchester by the Sea)

Predicted Winner: Viola Davis

Analysis: Another exact match with Oscar and I expect the same result – a win for Ms. Davis. Anything else would be a surprise.

Outstanding Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture

Nominees: Captain America: Civil War, Doctor Strange, Hacksaw Ridge, Jason Bourne, Nocturnal Animals

Predicted Winner: Hacksaw Ridge

Analysis: This is a tough one as either of the comic book flicks could win. Still, I’ll go with the only nominated Best Picture at the Oscars. By the way, why Nocturnal is present here baffles me.

And there you have it! Happy watching tonight…

Todd’s 2016 Oscar Nominations Reaction

And… they’re out! After months of predictions and Oscar Watch posts, the 2016 Oscar nominations were announced this morning. Save for a couple of the technical categories, I must say I’m pretty pleased with my results! Per usual, there were a couple of surprising inclusions and omissions.

Let’s go race by race and see how I did, shall we? I am also including my commentary with each category and, for the first time (!) giving my first predictions on who and what will win…

Best Picture

Todd’s Performance: 9/9 (!)

Analysis: Since the Oscars went to the format where 5-10 Pictures can be nominated, 9 has mostly been the magic number and that held true this time around. There were no surprises here, as evidenced by my perfect score with the biggest race of all. The nominees are: Arrival, Fences, Hacksaw Ridge, Hell or High Water, Hidden Figures, La La Land, Lion, Manchester by the Sea, and Moonlight.

Winner Prediction: La La Land

There are 3 films that stand a chance – La La, Manchester, and Moonlight. Yet there’s no denying that Damien Chazelle’s musical is the front runner, as it tied the record of 14 nominations today along with All About Eve and Titanic.  

Best Director

Todd’s Performance: 4/5

Analysis: There were four easy picks to make and they were all honored: Chazelle (La La), Barry Jenkins (Moonlight), Kenneth Lonergan (Manchester), and Denis Villeneuve (Arrival). The fifth slot has consistently been the tricky one in recent weeks and I went with DGA nominee Garth Davis (Lion). The Academy instead brought previous winner Mel Gibson back into their good graces once again for Hacksaw Ridge.

Winner Prediction: Damien Chazelle, La La Land

This one is tougher than Picture. Barry Jenkins has emerged victorious in a number of precursors. Ultimately I’m forecasting that Picture and Director will match in honoring Chazelle’s return to the Hollywood musical.

Best Actor

Todd’s Performance: 5/5 (!)

Analysis: The five performers recognized today have been the most likely to get in for about a month, at least. They are: Casey Affleck (Manchester), Andrew Garfield (Hacksaw), Ryan Gosling (La La), Viggo Mortensen (Captain Fantastic), and Denzel Washington (Fences). It played out as such.

Winner Prediction: Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea

Actor is essentially a two man race between Affleck and Denzel, but the Manchester lead has racked up the lions share of other awards show and I feel Oscar will follow.

Best Actress

Todd’s Performance: 4/5

Analysis: Let’s get the four women I got right out of the way: Isabelle Huppert (Elle), Natalie Portman (Jackie), Emma Stone (La La), and Meryl Streep (Florence Foster Jenkins). No surprises there, but what was a bit startling was the omission of Amy Adams in Arrival. I had her ranked third out of five possibilities. Then – my sixth (Annette Bening, 20th Century Women) and seventh (Emily Blunt, The Girl on the Train) place alternate picks didn’t make it in. That slot was filled with #8 – Ruth Negga in Loving. Not a huge shock as Actress has been packed for some time, but I thought Negga getting it would replace either Huppert or Streep. Not so.

Winner Prediction: Emma Stone, La La Land

I could see Stone, Portman, and maybe even Huppert taking the statue, but I’ll give Stone the gold.

Best Supporting Actor

Todd’s Performance 5/5 (!)

Analysis: I’ll give myself a hearty pat on the back for this as Supporting Actor was a tough race to wrap your head around this year. The nominees: Mahershala Ali (Moonlight), Jeff Bridges (Hell or High Water), Lucas Hedges (Manchester), Dev Patel (Lion), and Michael Shannon (Nocturnal Animals).

Winner Prediction: Mahershala Ali, Moonlight

Ali has won the bulk of precursors and this is the safe pick. That said, this is often a race where upsets happen and I could see Bridges, Patel, and possibly Shannon standing a chance.

Best Supporting Actress 

Todd’s Performance: 5/5 (!)

Analysis: I’ll give myself a softer pat on the back with this one as the five expected nominees held court. They are: Viola Davis (Fences), Naomie Harris (Moonlight), Nicole Kidman (Lion), Octavia Spencer (Hidden Figures), and Michelle Williams (Manchester).

Winner Prediction: Viola Davis, Fences

Of all the acting races, this is the easiest to project as Davis has been the front runner for months and remains so.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Todd’s Performance: 4/5

Analysis: As expected – Arrival, Fences (which some had on the fence), Lion, and Moonlight are in. I had Nocturnal Animals getting a nod, but the writers chose Hidden Figures instead.

Winner Prediction: Moonlight

The Barry Jenkins picture is a heavy, heavy favorite here.

Best Original Screenplay

Todd’s Performance: 3/5

Analysis: I correctly predicted Hell or High Water, La La Land, and Manchester by the Sea. I was a bit surprised to see Captain Fantastic left off, not as much so for dark horse pick I, Daniel Blake. In their place: The Lobster and 20th Century Women.

Winner Prediction: Manchester by the Sea

Kenneth Lonergan’s script is the favorite, but don’t discount a La La sweep factoring in here. Hell or High Water is a potential upset pick.

Best Animated Feature

Todd’s Performance: 4/5

Analysis: I went with a bit of an upset pick with Pixar’s Finding Dory… and you usually don’t associate this category not including that studio’s work. Instead, The Red Turtle got in along with predicted nominees Kubo and the Two Strings, Moana, My Life as a Zucchini, and Zootopia. 

Winner Prediction: Zootopia

Disney is likely to see their blockbuster take the prize, though Kubo could be lurking.

Best Documentary Feature

Todd’s Performance: 4/5

Analysis: I Am Not Your Negro, Life, Animated, O.J.: Made in America, and 13th were correct estimates while Fire at Sea nabbed a nod instead of Cameraperson.

Winner Prediction: I Am Not Your Negro

This is a tough one as O.J. and 13th also stand decent chances.

Best Foreign Language Film

Todd’s Performance: 4/5

Analysis: Tanna got in instead of predicted The King’s Choice. Other nominees: Land of Mine, A Man Called Ove, The Salesman, and Toni Erdmann.

Winner Prediction: The Salesman

The safe money could be on German comedy Erdmann, but I’m leaning toward Iranian drama The Salesman. I could switch back before showtime.

Best Cinematography

Todd’s Performance: 4/5

Analysis: My Nocturnal Animals love bore no fruit again as my first alternate Lion was nominated. Other nominees: Arrival, La La Land, Moonlight, and Silence.

Winner Prediction: La La Land

I’ll go with the probable Best Picture winner, but Moonlight and Arrival are possibilities.

Best Costume Design

Todd’s Performance: 5/5 (!)

Analysis: I guess I know my costumes as I correctly predicted Allied, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them, Florence Foster Jenkins, Jackie, and La La Land.

Winner Prediction: Jackie

The La La love could extend here and possibly even Colleen Atwood’s work for Fantastic Beasts, but I’ll go Jackie.

Best Editing

Todd’s Performance: 4/5

Analysis: Hell or High Water got in as opposed to Manchester. Other nominees: Arrival, Hacksaw Ridge, La La Land, and Moonlight.

Winner Prediction: La La Land

This category often matches Picture and it should here, too. Hacksaw and Arrival have shots.

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Todd’s Performance: 1/3

Analysis: Not so good… There were seven possibilities out of three nominees and I only was able to get Star Trek Beyond right. In place of Deadpool and Florence Foster Jenkins are A Man Called Ove and Suicide Squad.

Winner Prediction: Star Trek Beyond

I guess I’ll go with it since it’s the only one I named correctly. This could change…

Best Original Score

Todd’s Performance: 3/5

Analysis: Jackie and a legitimately unforeseen Passengers got in instead of Florence Foster Jenkins and Nocturnal Animals, along with La La Land, Lion, and Moonlight.

Winner Prediction: La La Land

The musical should win here, but Lion could possibly be an upset winner. Not likely though.

Best Original Song

Todd’s Performance: 4/5

Analysis: Expected nominees got in like the two from La La (“Audition” and “City of Stars”), Moana‘s “How Far I’ll Go”, and Justin Timberlake’s Trolls chart topper “Can’t Stop the Feeling!”. I went with “Drive It Like You Stole It” from Sing Street but the voters surprisingly chose “”The Empty Chair” from Jim: The James Foley Story, a tune that was never even on my radar.

Winner Prediction: “City of Stars” from La La Land

It’s won the Golden Globe and should take this one.

Best Production Design

Todd’s Performance: 2/5

Analysis: Damn production designers! This one threw me for a loop as I only got Arrival and La La Land right. I whiffed on Jackie (which I was certain would get in), Nocturnal Animals (again), and Silence. In their place: Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them, Hail, Caesar!, and those darn Passengers.

Winner Prediction: La La Land 

La La should have this wrapped up over the competitors.

Best Sound Editing

Todd’s Performance: 4/5

Analysis: Sully got in here instead of Rogue One: A Star Wars Story, along with Arrival, Deepwater Horizon, Hacksaw Ridge, and La La Land.

Winner Prediction: Hacksaw Ridge

Could be La La, Arrival, or even Deepwater, but I’ll give this to Hacksaw for its lone win.

Best Sound Mixing

Todd’s Performance: 4/5

Surprise nod here for 13 Hours: Secret Soldiers of Benghazi. I had Sully picked. Other nominees: Arrival, Hacksaw Ridge, La La Land, and Rogue One.

Winner Prediction: La La Land

Hard to imagine La La not taking this one.

Best Visual Effects

Todd’s Performance: 3/5

Deepwater Horizon and Kubo and the Two Strings made it in as opposed to Arrival (bit surprised there) and Fantastic Beasts (not as much so). Other nominees: Disney trio Doctor Strange, The Jungle Book, and Rogue One.

Winner Prediction: The Jungle Book

This could be a close one with Rogue, but I’ll predict Mowgli and his amazing CG animals pals.

That leaves this official breakdown of nominations:

14 Nominations

La La Land

8 Nominations

Arrival, Moonlight

6 Nominations

Hacksaw Ridge, Lion, Manchester by the Sea

4 Nominations

Fences, Hell or High Water

3 Nominations

Hidden Figures, Jackie

2 Nominations

Deepwater Horizon, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them, Florence Foster Jenkins, Kubo and the Two Strings, A Man Called Ove, Moana, Passengers, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

1 Nomination

Allied, Captain Fantastic, Doctor Strange, Elle, Fire at Sea, Hail, Caesar!, I Am Not Your Negro, Jim: The James Foley Story, The Jungle Book, Land of Mine, Life, Animated, The Lobster, Loving, My Life as a Zucchini, Nocturnal Animals, O.J.: Made in America, The Red Turtle, The Salesman, Silence, Star Trek Beyond, Suicide Squad, Sully, Tanna, 13th, 13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi, Toni Erdmann, Trolls, 20th Century Women, Zootopia

And HERE is my current WINNER breakdown:

9 Wins

La La Land

2 Wins

Manchester by the Sea, Moonlight

1 Win

Fences, Hacksaw Ridge, I Am Not Your Negro, Jackie, The Jungle Book, The Salesman, Star Trek Beyond, Zootopia

And that (whew) does it for now! You can rest assure I’ll be back shortly before the big ceremony to make final winner picks. Until then…