Month: December 2023

2023 Oscar Predictions: December 29th Edition

My final Oscar predictions for calendar year 2023 sees changes in Picture, Actress, and Actor. Anatomy of a Fall is back in the BP ten with The Color Purple falling out (despite its impressive box office bow on Christmas Day). That said – it’s a coin flip.

In Actress, I’ve elevated Greta Lee (Past Lives) once again at the expense of Margot Robbie’s Barbie. Same goes for Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction) in Actor with Colman Domingo’s Rustin out of the projected contending quintet.

I’ll also note that 20 Days in Mariupol is now first in Documentary Feature over longtime first place forecasted Beyond Utopia.

You can read all the movement below!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Barbie (PR: 3) (E)

4. Poor Things (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Holdovers (PR: 5) (E)

6. Past Lives (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Maestro (PR: 6) (-1)

8. The Zone of Interest (PR: 9) (+1)

9. American Fiction (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 11) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

11. The Color Purple (PR: 10) (-1)

12. May December (PR: 12) (E)

13. Society of the Snow (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Air (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 15) (E)

Dropped Out:

Saltburn

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 3) (E)

4. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 6) (-3)

10. J.A. Bayona, Society of the Snow (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Cord Jefferson, American Fiction

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)

3. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 3) (E)

4. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4) (E)

5. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 7) (E)

8. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla (PR: 8) (-2)

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 1) (E)

2. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (E)

3. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 3) (E)

4. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers (PR: 7) (E)

8. Zac Efron, The Iron Claw (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Barry Keoghan, Saltburn (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Teo Yoo, Past Lives (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 1) (E)

2. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 2) (E)

3. Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (E)

4. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 4) (E)

5. Rachel McAdams, Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 6) (E)

7. Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple (PR: 7) (E)

8. America Ferrera, Barbie (PR: 8) (E)

9. Rosamund Pike, Saltburn (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Sandra Hüller, The Zone of Interest (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Juliette Binoche, The Taste of Things

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 2) (E)

3. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 3) (E)

4. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (PR: 4) (E)

5. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 6) (E)

7. Sterling K. Brown, American Fiction (PR: 7) (E)

8. Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers (PR: 9) (+1)

9. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Glenn Howerton, BlackBerry (PR: 10) (E)

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Holdovers (PR: 2) (E)

3. Past Lives (PR: 3) (E)

4. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4) (E)

5. May December (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Air (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Maestro (PR: 6) (-1)

8. The Iron Claw (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Saltburn (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Asteroid City (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)

3. Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (E)

4. American Fiction (PR: 4) (E)

5. All of Us Strangers (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Zone of Interest (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Color Purple (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret (PR: 7) (-2)

10. The Taste of Things (PR: 9) (-1)

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Zone of Interest (PR: 1) (E)

2. Society of the Snow (PR: 3) (+1)

3. The Taste of Things (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Perfect Days (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Teachers’ Lounge (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Fallen Leaves (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Tótem (PR: 7) (E)

8. Godland (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Io Capitano (PR: 8) (-1)

10. The Monk and the Gun (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 2) (E)

3. Elemental (PR: 3) (E)

4. Nimona (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Peasants (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem (PR: 6) (E)

7. Wish (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Suzume (PR: 8) (E)

9. The Super Mario Bros. Movie (PR: 9) (E)

10. Robot Dreams (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. 20 Days in Mariupol (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Beyond Utopia (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Four Daughters (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Eternal Memory (PR: 4) (E)

5. American Symphony (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie (PR: 6) (E)

7. Going to Mars: The Nikki Giovanni Project (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Stamped from the Beginning (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Bobi Wire: The People’s President (PR: 9) (E)

10. A Still Small Voice (PR: 8) (-2)

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)

4. Maestro (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Barbie (PR: 7) (+1)

7. The Color Purple (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Napoleon (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Saltburn (PR: 8) (-1)

10. El Conde (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

The Killer

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)

2. Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Color Purple (PR: 3) (E)

4. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 4) (E)

5. Oppenheimer (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wonka (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Napoleon (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Maestro (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Chevalier (PR: 9) (E)

10. Asteroid City (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Priscilla

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)

4. Barbie (PR: 4) (E)

5. Air (PR: 9) (+4)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Holdovers (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Maestro (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 6) (-2)

9. The Zone of Interest (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Past Lives (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

The Killer

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Maestro (PR: 1) (E)

2. Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)

3. Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (E)

4. Society of the Snow (PR: 4) (E)

5. Golda (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 5) (-1)

7. The Last Voyage of the Demeter (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Napoleon (PR: 8) (E)

9. Ferrari (PR: 9) (E)

10. Beau is Afraid (PR: 6) (-4)

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Zone of Interest (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 9) (+4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Society of the Snow (PR: 6) (E)

7. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Elemental (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Barbie (PR: 8) (-1)

10. American Fiction (PR: 10) (E)

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie (PR: 1) (E)

2. “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie (PR: 2) (E)

3. “Road to Freedom” from Rustin (PR: 3) (E)

4. “Keep It Movin” from The Color Purple (PR: 4) (E)

5. “The Fire Inside” from Flamin’ Hot (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. “It Never Went Away” from American Symphony (PR: 6) (E)

7. “Can’t Catch Me Now” from The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes (PR: Not Ranked)

8. “Quiet Eyes” from Past Lives (PR: 8) (E)

9. “Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People)” from Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 7) (-2)

10. “Meet in the Middle” from Flora and Son (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

“Dear Alien (Who Art in Heaven)” from Asteroid City

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)

2. Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)

3. Oppenheimer (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (-1)

5. The Color Purple (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Asteroid City (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Napoleon (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Maestro (PR: 7) (-1)

9. The Zone of Interest (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Wonka (PR: 10) (-1)

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Maestro (PR: 2) (E)

3. Ferrari (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Zone of Interest (PR: 4) (E)

5. Napoleon (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 5) (-1)

7. The Killer (PR: 7) (E)

8. Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One (PR: 8) (E)

9. Barbie (PR: 9) (E)

10. The Creator (PR: 10) (E)

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Poor Things (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Creator (PR: 2) (E)

3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 3) (E)

4. Godzilla Minus One (PR: 4) (E)

5. Society of the Snow (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 6) (E)

7. Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Rebel Moon: Part One – A Child of Fire (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (PR: 9) (E)

10. Napoleon (PR: 8) (-2)

And that equates to these movies generating these numbers in terms of nominations:

13 Nominations

Oppenheimer

12 Nominations

Poor Things

11 Nominations

Killers of the Flower Moon

9 Nominations

Barbie

6 Nominations

Maestro, The Zone of Interest

4 Nominations

The Color Purple, The Holdovers

3 Nominations

American Fiction, Anatomy of a Fall, May December, Past Lives, Society of the Snow

2 Nominations

The Boy and the Heron

1 Nomination

20 Days in Mariupol, Air, All of Us Strangers, American Symphony, Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret, Beyond Utopia, The Creator, Elemental, The Eternal Memory, Ferrari, Flamin’ Hot, Four Daughters, Godzilla Minus One, Golda, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Napoleon, Nimona, The Peasants, Perfect Days, Rustin, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, The Taste of Things, The Teachers’ Lounge

Night Swim Box Office Prediction

Universal Pictures is the first studio to wade into the 2024 release calendar when Night Swim opens on January 5th. The supernatural horror pic is the debut feature length effort director Bryce McGuire, adapting his own 2014 short film. James Wan (currently helming his own H2O themed Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom in theaters) and Jason Blum produce. Wyatt Russell, Kerry Condon, Amélie Hoeferle, and Gavin Warren star.

The studio and production companies behind Swim had a massive hit in the same weekend in 2023 with M3GAN. That buzzy flick made off with $30 million in its initial frame and ended up with $95 million domestically.

Swim is not anticipated to log that much cash. Yet a gross in the mid to possibly high teens could make the new year’s inaugural release a decent sized success.

Night Swim opening weekend prediction: $14.1 million

2023: The Year of Lily Gladstone

Prior to 2023, Lily Gladstone was best known for her work in indie filmmaker Kelly Reichardt’s works Certain Women and First Cow. Her collaboration with Martin Scorsese this year could make her a Best Actress recipient. Gladstone is the subject of my final Year Of write-up. If you missed the previous entries, you can peruse them here:

2023: The Year of Barbenheimer
2023: The Year of the Video Game Movie
2023: The Year of Taylor Swift
2023: The Year of Bradley Cooper

Starring alongside previous Academy Award honorees and nominees Leonardo DiCaprio, Robert De Niro, Jesse Plemons, and Brendan Fraser, it was Gladstone’s performance as Mollie Kyle in Scorsese’s Killers of the Flower Moon that earned the most rapturous reception from critics. She has Globe and Critics Choice pending noms to show for it and victories from numerous groups including the National Board of Review. It is entirely possible we’ll see her costar and last year’s Best Actor winner Fraser calling her name in lead Actress on the Oscar stage.

The love didn’t stop with Moon. The Gotham Awards named Gladstone Best Actress for The Unknown Country, a small-budget road trip drama that originally premiered at South by Southwest back in 2022.

It was indeed a killer 2023 for Gladstone as she earns a slot in my Year Of posts.

December 29-December 31 Box Office Predictions

2023 closes out with no newcomers, but a host of Christmas holdovers as Wonka looks to bounce back into the top spot with Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom sliding to at least second.

I’m making these top five predictions for the traditional three-day weekend and not counting New Year’s Day (which typically sees brisk business at multiplexes). We are still awaiting final numbers for the long Christmas weekend. That includes from Warner Bros who have Wonka, Aquaman, and The Color Purple atop the charts.

The Boys in the Boat (which opened on Christmas to significantly better numbers than I figured) should round out the top five. While Aquaman should come in second, I suspect Migration could rise to the runner-up spot as families catch up on product over another holiday weekend.

Here’s my best guess on how it will look:

1. Wonka

Predicted Gross: $22.7 million

2. Migration

Predicted Gross: $17.9 million

3. Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom

Predicted Gross: $16.8 million

4. The Color Purple

Predicted Gross: $15.4 million

5. The Boys in the Boat

Predicted Gross: $7.9 million

2023: The Year of Bradley Cooper

My look at trends and performers who had an impactful cinematic 2023 arrives at Bradley Cooper. If you missed my previous three write-ups, you can access them here:

2023: The Year of Barbenheimer
2023: The Year of the Video Game Movie
2023: The Year of Taylor Swift

Five years after his directorial debut A Star Is Born landed multiple Oscar nominations, Cooper’s sophomore behind the camera project premiered on Netflix this month. Starring as legendary composer Leonard Bernstein, the multi-hyphenate also produces and co-wrote the script. He even took years to learn how to conduct an orchestra. The reward could be Cooper winning a Best Actor Academy Award after four previous performing nods. It’s fair to say there is no hangover for his second at bat.

Cooper’s voiceover work as Rocket in Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 is also noteworthy. His character was the emotional center of the MCU blockbuster (a success in a year where comic book movies struggled).

Add in a humorous cameo from Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves and 2023 was when Cooper’s conduct was well-regarded by critics and crowds alike. My Year Of posts will continue…

2023: The Year of Taylor Swift

My first two Year Of posts for the cinematic gifts we’ll remember in 2023 didn’t cover individuals. They focused on the phenomenon known as Barbenheimer and the impressive past few months for video game adaptations. You can peruse both of those entries here:

2023: The Year of Barbenheimer
2023: The Year of the Video Game Movie

Now we arrive at one performer whose year shone brightest beyond the silver screen. Yes, we’re talking Taylor, Swifties! Whether it was on her money minting tour or upping NFL viewership due to her romance with Travis Kelce, it was all about Taylor in 2023.

That popularity extended to the multiplex. On October 13th, her concert pic Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour broke every record in the genre. Actually it did so before it release by racking up ginormous pre-sales. When it debuted, the result was a $250 million worldwide gross with nearly $180 million of that stateside. Critics turned into Swifties as well (99% on Rotten Tomatoes).

This reversed perhaps the only blip on Swift’s career trajectory. Her movie past was littered with disappointments like 2019’s Cats and 2022’s Amsterdam. With Eras, she now stands tall as the Queen of the Concert Movie… and pretty much everything else in 2023. My Year Of posts will continue…

2023: The Year of the Video Game Movie

The trash heap of movie history is littered with a significant share of video game adaptations. It’s a genre devoid of well-regarded titles as evidenced by Double Dragon, Street Fighter, Wing Commander, Doom, and Max Payne, to name a few. That list also includes 1993’s Super Mario Bros., which tanked at the box office and drew the ire of critics.

30 years later, the tide seems to have shifted and that’s why the Video Game Movie is my second entry for trends and performers that popped in 2023. If you missed my first post on the phenomenon that was Barbenheimer, you can find it here:

2023: The Year of Barbenheimer

Mario and Luigi returned to multiplexes this year. This time around, it was in the form of Illumination animating the Nintendo legends. The results? The second biggest worldwide hit of the year behind Barbie ($1.3 billion across the globe and $574 million stateside). That easily makes it the largest grossing video game adaptation of all time and opens the door for projects to follow. You can count on sequels and spin-offs to this and The Legend of Zelda is already in development.

The successes didn’t stop with the heroic plumbers. Five Nights at Freddy’s, based on the game series with demonic bears in a Chuck E. Cheese type setting, wasn’t a hit with reviewers. It did bring out its fan base and then some to the tune of $137 million domestically with another $156 million elsewhere. Like Mario, a follow-up is in the pipeline.

HBO’s The Last of Us was one of TV’s significant successes of ’23 and the post-apocalyptic PlayStation adaptation has the Globe and Emmy nods (and a greenlit second season) to show for it.

Not every version of a cartridge title was a smash. Gran Turismo only managed to rev up $44 million in North America. However, Mario, Freddy’s, and The Last of Us made 2023 the most notable frame for VG product yet in the box office game. My Year Of posts will continue…

2023: The Year of Barbenheimer

As I do at the tail end of each year, I’m gifting you some posts recounting what enthralled us on the big screen in the preceding 12 months. There will be five for 2023 and, for the first write-up, I didn’t have to think too hard. This year, audiences across the globe were transfixed by the phenomenon known as “Barbenheimer”.

That would be the combination of Greta Gerwig’s Barbie and Christopher Nolan’s Oppenheimer. Both pictures opened on July 21st stateside. The former – Gerwig’s modern take on the Mattel doll and her cinematic universe – drew critical praise and became the biggest hit of the year with $1.4 billion worldwide. The latter – Nolan’s biopic of the man who built the atom bomb – made $954 million worldwide (good for third overall) and proved that three-hour historical biopics can make unforeseen amounts of dough.

Barbie and Oppenheimer will forever be tied together despite their many differences. The similarities? Crowds were excited to see both. Both are primed to vie for Best Picture at the Oscars. Each could see a trifecta of their actors contend for acting prizes. For Barbie – Margot Robbie in Actress, Ryan Gosling in Supporting Actor, and America Ferrera in Supporting Actress. For Oppenheimer – Cillian Murphy in Actor, Robert Downey Jr. in Supporting Actor, and Emily Blunt in Supporting Actress. And in a welcome development, the summer’s two behemoths weren’t sequels.

With the possible exception of Top Gun: Maverick in 2022, Barbenheimer is likely the most notable box office story of the decade and certainly for 2023. My Year Of posts will continue tomorrow!

Oscar Predictions: Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom

It’s been a rough cinematic 2023 for DC Studios with flops Shazam! Fury of the Gods, The Flash, and Blue Beetle. Over this Christmas weekend, early numbers indicate that their latest Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom may be another entry that opens below expectations. Jason Wan returns to direct his sequel to the 2018 blockbuster with Jason Momoa back in the title role. Costars include Patrick Wilson, Amber Heard, Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, Randall Park, Dolph Lundgren, Temuera Morrison, Martin Short (!), and Nicole Kidman.

The review embargo lifted on Thursday – the day of its unveiling in multiplexes. That’s usually not a good sign and that proved true with an underwater Rotten Tomatoes rating of 36%. Its predecessor managed 65%.

The 2018 original came up empty-handed in the awards space and didn’t make the 10 picture shortlist for Visual Effects. This sequel popped up on the first 20 contenders for VE. However, when the whittled down list of 10 were revealed Thursday, Lost was nowhere to be found. The fourth DCU offering of the year will share the same number of Academy nods as the first three: none. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

2023 Oscars Shortlists Reaction

The Oscar shortlists for the 96th Academy Awards were revealed today for seven feature length categories. We now know the ten finalists for Makeup and Hairstyling, Sound, and Visual Effects and the 15 hopefuls for Original Score, Original Song, International Feature Film, and Documentary Feature.

Per usual, there were surprises (though I’d say no complete jaw droppers). In Song, three films make up a third of the contenders (Hi Barbie!). Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One and Napoleon did about the best they could do while others like Nyad, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, and Past Lives missed key races where they were expected to contend for nominations.

Overall I went 63 for 90 in my forecasts. Let’s walk through each race with how I did and my new top tens for where I believe things stand in the various competitions!

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Shortlist: Beau is Afraid, Ferrari, Golda, Killers of the Flower Moon, The Last Voyage of the Demeter, Maestro, Napoleon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, Society of the Snow

How I Did: 6/10

Perhaps the biggest unexpected snub was Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 missing here (its two predecessors were respectively nominated and shortlisted). I also had Barbie (Bye Barbie!), Nyad, and Priscilla in the mix. In their places are Beau Is Afraid, Ferrari, The Last Voyage of the Demeter (didn’t see that coming), and Society of the Snow. This is probably Maestro‘s race to lose.

NEW ORDER OF PREDICTIONS

1. Maestro (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)

3. Oppenheimer (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Society of the Snow (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Beau Is Afraid (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Golda (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Napoleon (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Ferrari (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Last Voyage of the Demeter (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Barbie

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3

Nyad

The Color Purple

Wonka

Best Sound

Shortlist: Barbie, The Creator, Ferrari, The Killer, Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One, Napoleon, Oppenheimer, The Zone of Interest

How I Did: 8/10

Oppenheimer is clearly the leader. I felt like if Zone made the cut, its chances to make the final quintet are solid. The Creator and Mission: Impossible are listed over my picks of The Color Purple and Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse.

NEW ORDER OF PREDICTIONS

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Maestro (PR: 2) (E)

3. Ferrari (PR: 4) (+1)

4. The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Napoleon (PR: 8) (+2)

7. The Killer (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Barbie (PR: 10) (+1)

10. The Creator (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Color Purple

Society of the Snow

Best Visual Effects

Shortlist: The Creator, Godzilla Minus One, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One, Napoleon, Poor Things, Rebel Moon – Part One: A Child of Fire, Society of the Snow, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

How I Did: 8/10

Mission and Napoleon get in over my picks of Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves and Killers of the Flower Moon. This race is, frankly, a crapshoot ever since we found out Oppenheimer wouldn’t contend. With the Guardians omission in Makeup & Hairstyling, I feel compelled to remove it from 1st place here (though it still be the MCU’s first winner). The Creator? Godzilla? Perhaps. For now I’m rolling with Poor Things atop the leaderboard, but this is a toughie.

NEW ORDER OF PREDICTIONS:

1. Poor Things (PR: 3) (+2)

2. The Creator (PR: 2) (E)

3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 1) (-2)

4. Godzilla Minus One (PR: 4) (E)

5. Society of the Snow (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Rebel Moon – Part One: A Child of Fire (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Napoleon (PR: 8) (E)

9. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves

Best Original Score

Shortlist: American Fiction, American Symphony, Barbie, The Boy and the Heron, The Color Purple, Elemental, The Holdovers, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, Saltburn, Society of the Snow, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, The Zone of Interest

How I Did: 10/15

Some rather unexpected snubs including Nyad and Past Lives. I also had Carmen, Ferrari, and The Killer up for contention. In their places are American Fiction, American Symphony, The Color Purple, The Holdovers, and Saltburn. Like in Sound, the chances of Oppenheimer being victorious are decent.

NEW ORDER OF PREDICTIONS

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Zone of Interest (PR: 4) (E)

5. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Society of the Snow (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Elemental (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Barbie (PR: 10) (+2)

9. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 9) (E)

10. American Fiction (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Past Lives

Best Original Song

Shortlist: “Am I Dreaming” from Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse; “Can’t Catch Me Now” from The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes; “Dance the Night” from Barbie; “Dear Alien Who Art In Heaven” from Asteroid City; “The Fire Inside” from Flamin’ Hot; “High Life” from Flora and Son; “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie; “It Never Went Away” from American Symphony; “Keep It Movin” from The Color Purple; “Meet in the Middle” from Flora and Son; “Quiet Eyes” from Past Lives; “Road to Freedom” from Rustin; “Superpower” from The Color Purple; “Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People)” from Killers of the Flower Moon; “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie

How I Did: 10/15

Those three movies making up a third of the hopefuls are Barbie, Flora and Son, and The Color Purple. I incorrectly had both Flora tunes and “Superpower” from Purple out. Same goes for “Am I Dreaming” and “Can’t Catch Me Now”. The quintet that I incorrectly had in were “Peaches” from The Super Mario Bros. Movie (surprised it missed after the Globes nom), “Addicted to Romance” from She Came to Me (Bye Bruce Springsteen), “For the First Time” from The Little Mermaid, and “This Wish” from Wish (which I had in my top five days ago). It’s key to remember that only two tracks from a picture can make this race. That’s why I have “Dance the Night” outside the top ten since I’m confident “What Was I Made For?” and “I’m Just Ken” are in.

NEW ORDER OF PREDICTIONS

1. “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie (PR: 1) (E)

2. “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie (PR: 2) (E)

3. “Road to Freedom” from Rustin (PR: 3) (E)

4. “Keep It Movin” from The Color Purple (PR: 5) (+1)

5. “The Fire Inside” from Flamin’ Hot (PR: 10) (+5)

Other Possibilities:

6. “It Never Went Away” from American Symphony (PR: Not Ranked)

7. “Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People)” from Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: Not Ranked)

8. “Quiet Eyes” from Past Lives (PR: 6) (-2)

9. “Meet in the Middle” from Flora and Son (PR: Not Ranked)

10. “Dear Alien Who Art In Heaven” from Asteroid City (PR: Not Ranked)

Droppe Out:

“This Wish” from Wish

“Peaches” from The Super Mario Bros. Movie

“It’s Gonna Be You” from 80 for Brady

“A World of Your Own” from Wonka

Best International Feature Film

Shortlist: Amerikatsi (Armenia), Fallen Leaves (Finland), Four Daughters (Tunisia), Godland (Iceland), Io Capitano (Italy), The Monk and the Gun (Bhutan), The Mother of All Lies (Morocco), Perfect Days (Japan), The Promised Land (Denmark), Society of the Snow (Spain), The Taste of Things (France), The Teachers’ Lounge (Germany), Tótem (Mexico), 20 Days in Mariupol (Ukraine), The Zone of Interest (United Kingdom)

How I Did: 12/15

Documentaries The Mother of All Lies and Four Daughters are in as well as Amerikatsi. I had About Dry Grasses, The Peasants, and The Settlers. By the way, the miss for The Peasants may not bode well for its Animated Feature chances (where I’ve had it getting nominated). Barring an upset, this is The Zone of Interest‘s category to lose (though an upset isn’t totally out of the question).

NEW ORDER OF PREDICTIONS

1. The Zone of Interest (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Taste of Things (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Society of the Snow (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Perfect Days (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Fallen Leaves (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Teachers’ Lounge (PR: 6) (E)

7. Tótem (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Io Capitano (PR: 9) (+1)

9. The Monk and the Gun (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Godland (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

About Dry Grasses

The Promised Land

Best Documentary Feature

Shortlist: American Symphony, Apolonia, Apolonia, Beyond Utopia, Bobi Wire: The People’s President, Desperate Souls, Dark City, and the Legend of Midnight Cowboy, The Eternal Memory, Four Daughters, Going to Mars: The Nikki Giovanni Project, In the Rearview, Stamped from the Beginning, Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie, A Still Small Voice, 32 Sounds, To Kill a Tiger, 20 Days in Mariupol

How I Did: 9/15

There’s always unforeseen developments in the Doc derby. My picks of The Deepest Breath, Kokomo City, The Mission, The Mother of All Lies (despite the IFF nod), Orlando, My Political Biography, and The Pigeon Tunnel fell in favor of Desperate Souls, Dark City, and the Legend of Midnight Cowboy, Going to Mars: The Nikki Giovanni Project, In the Rearview, A Still Small Voice, 32 Sounds, and To Kill a Tiger. I’d say Beyond Utopia is still the slight favorite, but I’m very curious to see what certain precursors do.

NEW ORDER OF PREDICTIONS

1. Beyond Utopia (PR: 1) (E)

2. 20 Days in Mariupol (PR: 2) (E)

3. Four Daughters (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Eternal Memory (PR: 4) (E)

5. American Symphony (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie (PR: 6) (E)

7. Stamped from the Beginning (PR: 8) (+1)

8. A Still Small Voice (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Bobi Wire: The People’s President (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Going to Mars: The Nikki Giovanni Project (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Mother of All Lies

The Deepest Breath

Every Body

Keep an eye on the blog for all speculation as we inch closer to Oscar nomination morning!