Tag: Greg Kwedar

99th Academy Awards Predictions: May 6th Edition

My second helping of ranked Oscar predictions for next year’s 99th ceremony can be called the pre-Cannes estimates. That festival in the French Riviera kicks off May 12th and runs through May 23rd. It will be our first look at several potential contenders: Ryusuke Hamaguchi’s All of a Sudden, Pawel Pawlikowski’s Fatherland, Cristian Mungiu’s Fjord, Na Hong-jin’s Hope, James Gray’s Paper Tiger, and The Man I Love from Ira Sachs to name a few. Keep an eye on the blog for my individual posts exploring the viability of the screening pictures.

The Academy made some news of its own by announcing rule changes. The most significant is that actors can be nominated twice in the same category. There’s been recent examples of when this could have resulted in a performer getting two nods. I would say most recently that Sebastian Stan could have benefited. He was nominated in lead Actor for The Apprentice and a double shot was possible via A Different Man. Going back a ways, Kate Winslet won Best Actress in 2008 for The Reader and might have seen her name pop again for Revolutionary Road. In 2006, Kate’s Titanic mate Leonardo DiCaprio was in contention for Blood Diamond. He could have easily landed another shot via The Departed.

In International Feature Film, the criteria has always been that a submitting nation can choose just one entrant for consideration. While that rule holds, the Academy has added another path to get in. If a picture wins a qualifying international festival (such as Cannes, Berlin, Toronto, Sundance, Venice), it is now a contender. This would have helped Anatomy of a Fall in 2023 since France did not choose it as their representative picture, but it emerged victorious for the Palme d’Or at Cannes.

Since my last update in mid-April, Michael opened to gigantic box office and mediocre reviews. While the audience score on Rotten Tomatoes is high, critical griping could cripple its viability at the Oscars. However, I wouldn’t completely rule out the acclaimed work of Jaafar Jackson and Colman Domingo. Best Picture? Probably a bridge too far despite the gaudy numbers.

The Devil Wears Prada 2 also hit multiplexes. While Meryl Streep was a Best Actress nominee 20 years ago for the original, a second at-bat seems like a reach. The sequel could materialize, however, in Costume Design and/or Original Song where Lady Gaga has a track. Those categories won’t be forecasted until a few weeks down the line.

We also learned that Narnia: The Magician’s Nephew from Greta Gerwig will not be out (on Netflix) until 2027. I had it on the outside looking in at #11. It drops from contention this time around.

You can read all the speculation below and my next update will arrive as Cannes concludes!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)

3. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Digger (PR: 5) (E)

5. Fjord (PR: 6) (E)

6. No One Cares (PR: 6) (E)

7. Fatherland (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Dune: Part Three (PR: 10) (+2)

9. The Social Reckoning (PR: 9) (E)

10. All of a Sudden (PR: 7) (-3)

Other Possibilities:

11. Hope (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Cry to Heaven (PR: 16) (+4)

13. A Place in Hell (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Paper Tiger (PR: 21) (+7)

15. Werwulf (PR: 18) (+3)

16. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 23) (+7)

17. Josephine (PR: 17) (E)

18. Saturn Return (PR: 22) (+4)

19. The Entertainment System is Down (PR: 14) (-5)

20. Jack of Spades (PR: 24) (+4)

21. Being Heumann (PR: 15) (-6)

22. A Long Winter (PR: 13) (-9)

23. Behemoth! (PR: 25) (+2)

24. Michael (PR: 20) (-4)

25. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 19) (-6)

Dropped Out:

Narnia: The Magician’s Nephew

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Alejandro Gonzalez Iñárritu, Digger (PR: 2) (E)

3. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Cristian Mingiu, Fjord (PR: 3) (+1)

5. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Pawel Pawlikowski, Fatherland (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Jesse Eisenberg, No One Cares (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Na Hong-jin, Hope (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Tom Ford, Cry to Heaven (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Aaron Sorkin, The Social Reckoning (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Robert Eggers, Werwulf (PR: 14) (+1)

14. James Gray, Paper Tiger (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Greg Kwedar, Saturn Return (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Greta Gerwig, Narnia: The Magician’s Nephew

Ruben Östlund, The Entertainment System is Down

David Fincher, The Adventures of Cliff Booth

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Renate Reinsve, Fjord (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sandra Hüller, Fatherland (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Julianne Moore, No One Cares (PR: 3) (E)

4. Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Michelle Williams, A Place in Hell (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden (PR: 6) (E)

7. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Sandra Hüller, Rose (PR: 11) (+3)

9. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Sophie Okonedo, Clarissa (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Mason Reeves, Josephine (PR: 8) (-3)

12. Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 14) (+2)

13. Rachel Brosnahan, Saturn Return (PR: 13) (E)

14. Penélope Cruz, Bunker (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Lily Gladstone, The Memory Police (PR: 12) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Amy Adams, At the Sea

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Tom Cruise, Digger (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sebastian Stan, Fjord (PR: 4) (+1)

4. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Hanns Zischler, Fatherland (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Matt Damon, The Odyssey (PR: 6) (E)

7. Dominic Sessa, Tony (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Jaafar Jackson, Michael (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Nicholas Hoult, Cry to Heaven (PR: 9) (E)

10. John Turturro, The Only Living Pickpocket in New York (PR: 15) (+5)

11. Jeremy Allen White, The Social Reckoning (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Adam Driver, Paper Tiger (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Josh O’Connor, Jack of Spades (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Rami Malek, The Man I Love (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Three (PR: 11) (-4)

Dropped Out:

Robert Aramayo, I Swear

Pedro Pascal, Behemoth!

Brad Pitt, The Adventures of Cliff Booth

Charles Melton, Saturn Return

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mariana di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Sandra Hüller, Digger (PR: 6) (+4)

3. Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (-2)

4. Halle Bailey, No One Cares (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Daisy Edgar-Jones, A Place in Hell (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Tao Okamato, All of a Sudden (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 8) (E)

9. Scarlett Johannson, Paper Tiger (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Lesley Manville, Jack of Spades (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Esmé Creed-Miles, Sense and Sensibility (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Kirsten Dunst, The Entertainment System is Down (PR: 12) (E)

13. Caitriona Balfe, A Long Winter (PR: 9) (-4)

14. Penélope Cruz, The Invite (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Gemma Chan, Josephine (PR: 13) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Wunmi Mosaku, The Social Reckoning

Frances McDormand, Jack of Spades

Elizabeth Debicki, The Adventures of Cliff Booth

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Paul Giamatti, No One Cares (PR: 1) (E)

2. John Goodman, Digger (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Robert Pattinson, The Odyssey (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning (PR: 6) (-1)

7. Colman Domingo, Michael (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Andrew Scott, A Place in Hell (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Tom Holland, The Odyssey (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Jesse Plemons, Digger (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Channing Tatum, Josephine (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Mark Ruffalo, Being Heumann (PR: 9) (-3)

13. David Oyelowo, Clarissa (PR: 13) (E)

14. Antonio Banderas, Tony (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Cry to Heaven (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Daniel Brühl, The Entertainment System is Down

Riz Ahmed, Digger

    Oscar Nominations: The Case of Train Dreams

    As we do every year on the blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

    It begins with the ten Best Picture contenders and then alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. We have arrived at the final film in BP and that’s Clint Bentley’s Train Dreams. If you missed my posts covering the previous nominees, you can find them here:

    Oscar Nominations: The Case of Bugonia
    Oscar Nominations: The Case of F1
    Oscar Nominations: The Case of Frankenstein
    Oscar Nominations: The Case of Hamnet
    Oscar Nominations: The Case of Marty Supreme
    Oscar Nominations: The Case of One Battle After Another
    Oscar Nominations: The Case of The Secret Agent
    Oscar Nominations: The Case of Sentimental Value
    Oscar Nominations: The Case of Sinners

    The Case for Train Dreams:

    Since premiering at Sundance over a year ago, the period drama has been seen an awards player. In addition to the BP nod, it’s up for Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, and Original Song. Precursor BP nominations for the Netflix release include the Globes and PGA.

    The Case Against Train Dreams:

    Note the noms it didn’t get including directing and or any mentions for its cast (Joel Edgerton, Felicity Jones, or William H. Macy). BAFTA almost completely ignored it where it received a sole cinematography nom and it was blanked at SAG Actor.

    The Verdict:

    Of the two Netflix entries up in the biggest race, Dreams is below Frankenstein as far as victory chances and Frankenstein is definitely not going to win.

    My Case Of posts will continue with the first Best Actress write-up and that’s Jessie Buckley in Hamnet…

    Oscars: The Case of Colman Domingo in Sing Sing

    As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

    It began with the ten Best Picture contenders and now alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. The BP nominee posts are up and they’re readily available for your perusing pleasure. Today is our third entry in Best Actor and that’s Colman Domingo in Greg Kwedar’s Sing Sing. If you missed my posts covering Adrien Brody and Timothée Chalamet, they’re linked at the bottom.

    Previous Acting Oscar Nominations:

    Best Actor (2023, Rustin) – lost to Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer)

    The Case for Colman Domingo:

    Just one year after being in contention for Rustin, Domingo makes a quick return engagement to the Oscar dance as Divine G in the acclaimed prison drama. For his work, he was nominated for the Golden Globe, SAG, BAFTA, and Critics Choice.

    The Case Against Colman Domingo:

    Adrien Brody (The Brutalist) collected the Globe, BAFTA, and Critics Choice with Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown) considered second in line. Sing Sing missed the BP cut as did costar Clarence Maclin in Supporting Actor.

    The Verdict:

    The second time will not be the charm for Domingo as Sing Sing underperformed with the Academy.

    My Case Of posts will continue with our third hopeful in Supporting Actress and that’s Felicity Jones in The Brutalist…

    Oscars: The Case of Adrien Brody in The Brutalist
    Oscars: The Case of Timothée Chalamet in A Complete Unknown

    Oscar Predictions: Train Dreams

    Netflix is banking on Train Dreams logging some awards chatter after primarily positive reaction at Sundance. The period piece drama casts Joel Edgerton as a railroad worker traveling across the United States. Felicity Jones (currently vying for Supporting Actress in The Brutalist), Kerry Condon, and William H. Macy provide support.

    Dreams is the latest screenplay from Clint Bentley and Greg Kwedar (based on a novella by Denis Johnson). Bentley last directed Jockey in 2021 which probably came close to nabbing a Best Actor nod for Clifton Collins Jr. (who also costars here). Kwedar was behind the camera for Sing Sing where Colman Domingo is contending this year for the lead slot.

    With 90% on Rotten Tomatoes and an 83 Metacritic, Netflix quickly snatched up distribution rights in Utah. Based on the buzz, they might give this a spirited campaign. That holds true particularly for Edgerton (who’s never been nominated) and the cinematography that is consistently being singled out. If Adapted Screenplay can be in play, BP attention could come along for the ride. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

    97th Academy Awards: The FINAL State of the Best Director Race

    My final predictions for nominees at the 97th Academy Awards arrives this Sunday, January 19th (note the new date) prior to the announcement on Thursday, January 23rd. Note that new date too as the Academy pushed back the nomination unveilings due to the California wildfires. Before I make them, I’m taking a deeper dive into the six major categories (Picture, Director, the four acting derbies) with detailed thoughts on where I think each race stands.

    The fifth post in this series is Best Director. If you missed my write-ups for the acting derbies, you can access them here:

    97th Academy Awards: The FINAL State of the Best Actress Race
    97th Academy Awards: The FINAL State of the Best Actor Race
    97th Academy Awards: The FINAL State of the Best Supporting Actor Race
    97th Academy Awards: The FINAL State of the Best Supporting Actress Race

    Similar to Best Actor, I believe there are four hopefuls represented here that you don’t want to bet against. There is a quartet of filmmakers who have been nominated in the four most significant precursors (DGA, Golden Globes, BAFTA, Critics Choice). They are Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez), Sean Baker (Anora), Edward Berger (Conclave), and Brady Corbet (The Brutalist). Mr. Corbet won the Globe while the other races are TBD. I wouldn’t leave any of them out of your predictions.

    So it all comes down to the fifth slot and I will discuss seven possibilities that I feel are viable. Before we get to that, there are the directors who might’ve had a shot before their pictures premiered. The movies either became non-contenders due to poor buzz and reviews or just never properly caught on in the awards chatter. This list includes Francis Ford Coppola (Megalopolis), Todd Phillips (Joker: Folie à Deux), Yorgos Lanthimos (Kinds of Kindness), Ridley Scott (Gladiator II), George Miller (Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga), Joshua Oppenheimer (The End), Pablo Larrain (Maria), Pedro Almodóvar (The Room Next Door) and Steve McQueen (Blitz).

    The next level includes makers of movies that didn’t quite reach BP consideration and even some that could make the cut at BP. I’m looking at Tim Fehlbaum (September 5), Greg Kwedar (Sing Sing), Jesse Eisenberg (A Real Pain), Walter Salles (I’m Still Here), Robert Eggers (Nosferatu) and Luca Guadagnino for Challengers and Queer.

    Now let’s get to the 7 individuals fighting for the 5th spot, shall we?

    Jon M. Chu directed one of the year’s largest blockbusters in Wicked. However, he has only picked up a Critics Choice precursor mention in which there were eight nominees. I’d rank him 6th of these 7 possibilities.

    Coralie Fargeat’s behind the camera work for The Substance has yielded her Globe, Critics Choice, and BAFTA noms. The notable omission is DGA, but DGA/Oscar seldom match completely. I have her 1st of these 7 possibilities.

    Payal Kapadia (All We Imagine as Light) got in the Globes mix but couldn’t make it anywhere else. She’s 5th of the 7 possibilities.

    James Mangold (A Complete Unknown) was the surprise fifth contender at DGA and Unknown has been exceeding expectations at precursors as we arrive at Oscar nominations. Under the same logic seen above with Fargeat, I have Mangold 3rd of the 7 possibilities.

    Mohammad Rasoulof’s direction of The Seed of the Sacred Fig was once seen a strong hopeful. Fig has, however, seemingly fallen out of BP contention and Rasoulof has not been nominated at any of the aforementioned shows. He’s 7th of the 7 possibilities.

    RaMell Ross (Nickel Boys) made the octet of Critics Choice contestants and has been absent elsewhere. Boys is a question mark for BP inclusion and I have Ross 4th of the 7 possibilities.

    Finally, Denis Villeneuve was a shocking snub in 2021 with Dune. For Dune: Part Two, he’s missed DGA and the Globes but was included in Critics Choice and BAFTA. The Academy might seek to rectify their ’21 activity. At the moment, I have him 2nd of the 7 possibilities for the last slot.

    OK. There you have it. My microscope analysis of Director for the 97th Academy Awards. Let’s see how it shakes out Sunday when I do final picks. I’ll have that all-important dive into Best Picture up next!

    97th Academy Awards Predictions: December 14th Edition

    A boatload of Oscar precursor nominations have rolled in since I last forecasted my predictions on December 1st from the Golden Globes to Critics Choice to AFI and the National Board of Review. As is usually the case, it causes certain performers and pictures to be much more assured in their position of getting in the Academy mix. Yet it can also muddy up the waters for others. A Real Pain missing Critics Choice was a surprising snub. Sing Sing performed poorly at the Globes. Blitz and Gladiator II are all but out of the Best Picture equation. I could go on and on but let’s focus on what’s changed in my projections for the major races since the dawn of December.

    While my BP lineup remains the same, I came darn close to putting A Complete Unknown in over either Sing Sing or A Real Pain. It has a strong shot after getting Globe and Critics Choice nods in the big dance. I also flirted with putting Conclave at #1, but have The Brutalist still in first in a wider open field than normal in mid-December. The most significant climber is The Substance from 10th to 7th.

    For the first time this year after multiple posts beginning in the spring, Denis Villeneuve (Dune: Part Two) is not listed in my director five. Jacques Audiard jumps back in for Emilia Pérez. I feel pretty good about my top 7 making the cut in the race. Obviously that’s problematic since only five can.

    Despite no recognition from the Globes, Marianne Jean-Baptiste (Hard Truths) vaults into my Actress quintet though I was reluctant to drop Cynthia Erivo (Wicked).

    While my Best Actor five is intact, Timothée Chalamet’s performance as Bob Dylan in A Complete Unknown rises from 4th to 2nd. He has emerged as a genuine challenger for the gold (along with Ralph Fiennes in Conclave) to Adrien Brody in The Brutalist. Another development: after unexpectedly landing Globe and CCA noms, Hugh Grant (Heretic) is in Other Possibilities for the first time.

    While my Supporting Actress field remains the same, I’m putting Yura Borisov (Anora) in Supporting Actor to the detriment of Conclave‘s Stanley Tucci, who missed CCA and the Globes.

    Best Picture

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. The Brutalist (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

    2. Conclave (PR: 3) (+1)

    3. Anora (PR: 3) (-1)

    4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (+1)

    5. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (-1)

    6. Wicked (PR: 6) (E)

    7. The Substance (PR: 10) (+3)

    8. Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (+1)

    9. Sing Sing (PR: 7) (-2)

    10. A Real Pain (PR: 8) (-2)

    Other Possibilities:

    11. A Complete Unknown (PR: 15) (+4)

    12. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 11) (-1)

    13. September 5 (PR: Not Ranked)

    14. All We Imagine as Light (PR: Not Ranked)

    15. Nosferatu (PR: 14) (-1)

    Dropped Out:

    Blitz

    Gladiator II

    Best Director

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Brady Corbet, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 4) (+1)

    4. Jacques Audiard, Emilie Pérez (PR: 6) (+2)

    5. Coralie Fargeat, The Substance (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (-3)

    7. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Jon M. Chu, Wicked (PR: 9) (+1)

    9. Payal Kapadia, All We Imagine as Light (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 8) (-2)

    Dropped Out:

    Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing

    Best Actress

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 7) (+2)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked (PR: 5) (-1)

    7. Nicole Kidman, Babygirl (PR: 9) (+2)

    8. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. Kate Winslet, Lee (PR: 10) (E)

    Dropped Out:

    Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun

    Best Actor

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Adrien Brody, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown (PR: 4) (+2)

    3. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 2) (-1)

    4. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 9) (+3)

    7. Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. Hugh Grant, Heretic (PR: Not Ranked)

    9. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 7) (-2)

    10. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 8) (-2)

    Dropped Out:

    Kingsley Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love

    Best Supporting Actress

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Ariana Grande, Wicked (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Felicity Jones, The Brutalist (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Isabella Rosselini, Conclave (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Margaret Qualley, The Substance (PR: 8) (+1)

    8. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: 9) (+1)

    9. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 7) (-2)

    10. Monica Barbaro, A Complete Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Joan Chen, Dídi

    Best Supporting Actor

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Guy Pearce, The Brutalist (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Yura Borisov, Anora (PR: 6) (+2)

    5. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 4) (-1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown (PR: 9) (+3)

    7. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 5) (-3)

    9. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Jonathan Bailey, Wicked

    Best Original Screenplay

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)

    2. The Brutalist (PR: 2) (E)

    3. A Real Pain (PR: 3) (E)

    4. The Substance (PR: 4) (E)

    5. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. September 5 (PR: 8) (+2)

    7. Hard Truths (PR: 7) (E)

    8. All We Imagine as Light (PR: Not Ranked)

    9. Saturday Night (PR: 6) (-3)

    10. Challengers (PR: 9) (-1)

    Dropped Out:

    His Three Daughters

    Best Adapted Screenplay

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Conclave (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Nickel Boys (PR: 3) (+1)

    3. Sing Sing (PR: 2) (-1)

    4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 7) (+3)

    5. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (-1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. The Room Next Door (PR: 5) (-1)

    7. Wicked (PR: Not Ranked)

    8. I’m Still Here (PR: 8) (E)

    9. A Complete Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. Hit Man (PR: 6) (-4)

    Dropped Out:

    The Piano Lesson

    Queer

    Best International Feature Film

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

    2. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 2) (E)

    3. I’m Still Here (PR: 3) (E)

    4. The Girl with the Needle (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Vermiglio (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Kneecap (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Flow (PR: Not Ranked)

    8. Dahomey (PR: 9) (+1)

    9. Universal Language (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. How to Make Millions Before Grandma Dies (PR: 7) (-3)

    Dropped Out:

    Armand

    Best Animated Feature

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. The Wild Robot (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Flow (PR: 4) (+2)

    3. Inside Out 2 (PR: 2) (-1)

    4. Memoir of a Snail (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilites:

    6. Chicken for Linda! (PR: 9) (+3)

    7. Moana 2 (PR: 8) (+1)

    8. Piece by Piece (PR: 6) (-2)

    9. Transformers One (PR: 7) (-2)

    10. Spellbound (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim

    Best Documentary Feature

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. No Other Land (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Daughters (PR: 6) (+4)

    3. Will & Harper (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Sugarcane (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Dahomey (PR: 8) (+3)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Black Box Diaries (PR: 2) (-4)

    7. Union (PR: 5) (-2)

    8. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat (PR: 7) (-1)

    9. Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. The Remarkable Life of Ibelin (PR: 9) (-1)

    Dropped Out:

    A New Kind of Wilderness

    Best Cinematography

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Nickel Boys (PR: 5) (+2)

    4. Nosferatu (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. The Girl with the Needle (PR: Not Ranked)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Conclave (PR: 4) (-2)

    7. Emilia Pérez (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Maria (PR: 6) (-2)

    9. Challengers (PR: 9) (E)

    10. Wicked (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Anora

    Blitz

    Best Costume Design

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Wicked (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (+1)

    4. Maria (PR: 5) (+1)

    5. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (-2)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 6) (E)

    7. A Complete Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)

    8. Conclave (PR: 10) (+2)

    9. The Brutalist (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. Blitz (PR: 7) (-3)

    Dropped Out:

    Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga

    Best Film Editing

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Anora (PR: 3) (+1)

    3. Conclave (PR: 6) (+3)

    4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (-2)

    5. The Substance (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. September 5 (PR: Not Ranked)

    7. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (-3)

    8. Challengers (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Nickel Boys (PR: 7) (-2)

    10. Wicked (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Sing Sing

    Saturday Night

    Best Makeup and Hairstyling

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. The Substance (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Wicked (PR: 3) (E)

    4. A Different Man (PR: 5) (+1)

    5. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (-1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Maria (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Sasquatch Sunset (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 9) (E)

    10. Emilia Pérez (PR: 10) (E)

    Best Original Score

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Conclave (PR: 4) (+2)

    3. Challengers (PR: 7) (+4)

    4. The Wild Robot (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (+1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Sing Sing (PR: 5) (-1)

    7. Nosferatu (PR: Not Ranked)

    8. The Room Next Door (PR: Not Ranked)

    9. Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (E)

    10. Wicked (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Dune: Part Two – deemed ineligible

    Saturday Night

    Blitz

    Best Original Song

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

    2. “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 2) (E)

    3. “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot (PR: 4) (+1)

    4. “The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. “Forbidden Road” from Better Man (PR: 7) (+2)

    Other Possibilties:

    6. “Beautiful That Way” from The Last Showgirl (PR: Not Ranked)

    7. “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. “Compress/Repress” from Challengers (PR: 10) (+2)

    9. “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing (PR: 5) (-4)

    10. “Better Way to Live” from Kneecap (PR: 9) (-1)

    Dropped Out:

    “Piece by Piece” from Piece by Piece

    Best Production Design

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Wicked (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (+1)

    4. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. The Brutalist (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. The Substance (PR: Not Ranked)

    7. Conclave (PR: 8) (+1)

    8. Blitz (PR: 6) (-2)

    9. Maria (PR: 7) (-2)

    10. A Complete Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga

    Best Sound

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Wicked (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (+1)

    4. The Brutalist (PR: Not Ranked)

    5. A Complete Unknown (PR: 9) (+4)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (-3)

    7. Blitz (PR: 5) (-2)

    8. Nosferatu (PR: 6) (-2)

    9. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. The Substance (PR: 8) (-2)

    Dropped Out:

    Twisters

    Conclave

    Best Visual Effects

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Wicked (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Better Man (PR: 6) (+2)

    5. Twisters (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (-2)

    7. The Substance (PR: Not Ranked)

    8. Mufasa: The Lion King (PR: 7) (-1)

    9. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 9) (-1)

    Dropped Out:

    Nosferatu

    And that works out to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:

    11 Nominations

    The Brutalist

    9 Nominations

    Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez

    7 Nominations

    Conclave, Wicked

    6 Nominations

    Anora, The Substance

    4 Nominations

    Gladiator II, Nosferatu, Sing Sing

    3 Nominations

    Nickel Boys, A Real Pain, The Wild Robot

    2 Nominations

    Better Man, A Complete Unknown, The Girl with the Needle, Maria, The Seed of the Sacred Fig

    1 Nomination

    Challengers, Dahomey, Daughters, A Different Man, Flow, Hard Truths, I’m Still Here, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Memoir of a Snail, No Other Land, The Piano Lesson, Queer, The Six Triple Eight, Sugarcane, Twisters, Vermiglio, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, Will & Harper

    97th Academy Awards Predictions: December 1st Edition

    As December dawns, my first Oscar predictions in two weeks have substantial changes for us to mull over. It begins with Coralie Fargeat’s The Substance as I have put it in my Best Picture top ten where it had yet to be listed. I still have reservations about including it. This is not the type of genre material that Academy voters usually go for. However, it has its vocal admirers and is one of the most buzzed about pictures of 2024.

    The love for The Substance doesn’t stop there. Fourteen days ago, I had it pegged for only a single nomination in Makeup and Hairstyling. Now I have it nabbing five other mentions: Picture, Director, Actress, Original Screenplay, and Film Editing.

    My BP inclusion for The Substance knocks out Steve McQueen’s Blitz. In fact, Blitz has fallen the most in my estimation in recent days. Two weeks ago, I had it achieving five nods. Now I have it only managing a Best Sound mention.

    In Director, Fargeat’s rise puts Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez) on the outside looking in. There are two newbies in Best Actress: the aforementioned Demi Moore and Cynthia Erivo from the massively successful Wicked. Their additions subtract Saoirse Ronan (The Outrun) and Amy Adams (Nightbitch).

    Speaking of Wicked, Ariana Grande is now in my Supporting Actress quintet and that takes out… Saoirse Ronan for Blitz. That means that I went from projecting Ronan as a double nominee to none.

    There are no changes in my Actor and Supporting Actor lineups. I will note that the Bob Dylan biopic A Complete Unknown has started industry screenings while the review embargo hasn’t lifted. The early buzz indicates that Timothée Chalamet is looking solid for a nom while its chances elsewhere are shakier.

    You can read all the movement below and I’ll have another update available in mid-December!

    Best Picture

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. The Brutalist (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

    2. Anora (PR: 3) (+1)

    3. Conclave (PR: 2) (-1)

    4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (E)

    6. Wicked (PR: 8) (+2)

    7. Sing Sing (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. A Real Pain (PR: 7) (-1)

    9. Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (E)

    10. The Substance (PR: 13) (+3)

    Other Possibilities:

    11. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 12) (+1)

    12. Blitz (PR: 10) (-2)

    13. Gladiator II (PR: 11) (-2)

    14. Nosferatu (PR: 14) (E)

    15. A Complete Unknown (PR: 15) (E)

    Best Director

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Brady Corbet, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (+1)

    4. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. Coralie Fargeat, The Substance (PR: 6) (+1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (-1)

    7. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Jon M. Chu, Wicked (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: 9) (-1)

    Dropped Out:

    Robert Eggers, Nosferatu

    Best Actress

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: 7) (+3)

    5. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked (PR: 9) (+4)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 4) (-2)

    7. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 5) (-3)

    9. Nicole Kidman, Babygirl (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. Kate Winslet, Lee (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here (PR: 10) (E)

    Best Actor

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Adrien Brody, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 9) (+2)

    8. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 7) (-1)

    9. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. Kinglsey Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Paul Mescal, Gladiator II

    Best Supporting Actress

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Ariana Grande, Wicked (PR: 6) (+4)

    3. Felicity Jones, The Brutalist (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 2) (-2)

    5. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 7) (+1)

    7. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 4) (-3)

    8. Margaret Qualley, The Substance (PR: 9) (+1)

    9. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 10) (E)

    Best Supporting Actor

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Guy Pearce, The Brutalist (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 5) (+2)

    4. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 4) (-1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Yura Borisov, Anora (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown (PR: 9) (E)

    10. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside

    Best Original Screenplay

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)

    2. The Brutalist (PR: 2) (E)

    3. A Real Pain (PR: 3) (E)

    4. The Substance (PR: 6) (+2)

    5. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 4) (-1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Saturday Night (PR: 5) (-1)

    7. Hard Truths (PR: 8) (+1)

    8. September 5 (PR: 7) (-1)

    9. Challengers (PR: 10) (+1)

    10. His Three Daughters (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Blitz

    Best Adapted Screenplay

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Conclave (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Sing Sing (PR: 3) (+1)

    3. Nickel Boys (PR: 2) (-1)

    4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (E)

    5. The Room Next Door (PR: 7) (+2)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Hit Man (PR: 8) (+2)

    7. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. I’m Still Here (PR: 5) (-3)

    9. The Piano Lesson (PR: 9) (E)

    10. Queer (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    A Complete Unknown

    Best International Feature Film

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

    2. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 2) (E)

    3. I’m Still Here (PR: 3) (E)

    4. The Girl with the Needle (PR: 5) (+1)

    5. Vermiglio (PR: 4) (-1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Kneecap (PR: 6) (E)

    7. How to Make Millions Before Grandma Dies (PR: 9) (+2)

    8. Universal Language (PR: 7) (-1)

    9. Dahomey (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. Armand (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Grand Tour

    Best Animated Feature

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. The Wild Robot (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Inside Out 2 (PR: 3) (+1)

    3. Memoir of a Snail (PR: 2) (-1)

    4. Flow (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Piece by Piece (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Transformers One (PR: Not Ranked)

    8. Moana 2 (PR: 7) (-1)

    9. Chicken for Linda! (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim (PR: 9) (-1)

    Dropped Out:

    Savages

    Spellbound

    Best Documentary Feature

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. No Other Land (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Black Box Diaries (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Will & Harper (PR: 4) (+1)

    4. Sugarcane (PR: 5) (+1)

    5. Union (PR: 7) (+2)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Daughters (PR: 3) (-3)

    7. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat (PR: 9) (+2)

    8. Dahomey (PR: 6) (-2)

    9. The Remarkable Life of Ibelin (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. A New Kind of Wilderness (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Separated

    Best Cinematography

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Nosferatu (PR: 5) (+2)

    4. Conclave (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Nickel Boys (PR: 7) (+2)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Maria (PR: 8) (+2)

    7. Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (-4)

    8. Anora (PR: 10) (+2)

    9. Challengers (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. Blitz (PR: 6) (-4)

    Dropped Out:

    Gladiator II

    Best Costume Design

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Wicked (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Maria (PR: 6) (+1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 8) (+2)

    7. Blitz (PR: 5) (-2)

    8. The Brutalist (PR: 7) (-1)

    9. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. Conclave (PR: 10) (E)

    Dropped Out:

    Saturday Night

    Best Film Editing

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (+1)

    3. Anora (PR: 2) (-1)

    4. Emila Pérez (PR: 4) (E)

    5. The Substance (PR: 8) (+3)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Conclave (PR: 5) (-1)

    7. Nickel Boys (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Challengers (PR: 10) (+2)

    9. Sing Sing (PR: 6) (-3)

    10. Saturday Night (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Blitz

    Best Makeup and Hairstyling

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. The Substance (PR: 2) (+1)

    2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (-1)

    3. Wicked (PR: 5) (+2)

    4. Nosferatu (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. A Different Man (PR: 4) (-1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Maria (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Sasquatch Sunset (PR: 9) (+1)

    9. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 10) (+1)

    10. Emilia Pérez (PR: 8) (-2)

    Best Original Score

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (+1)

    3. The Wild Robot (PR: 4) (+1)

    4. Conclave (PR: 2) (-2)

    5. Sing Sing (PR: 7) (+2)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (-1)

    7. Challengers (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. Saturday Night (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Nickel Boys (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. Blitz (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Gladiator II

    Nosferatu

    Best Original Song

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

    2. “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (+1)

    3. “The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight (PR: 7) (+4)

    4. “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot (PR: 4) (E)

    5. “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing (PR: 2) (-3)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. “Harper & Will Go West” from Will & Harper (PR: 5) (-1)

    7. “Forbidden Road” from Better Man (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. “Piece by Piece” from Piece by Piece (PR: 8) (E)

    9. “Better Way to Live” from Kneecap (PR: 10) (+1)

    10. “Compress/Repress” from Challengers (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    “Beyond” from Moana 2

    Best Production Design

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Wicked (PR: 2) (+1)

    2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (-1)

    3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (E)

    5. The Brutalist (PR: 6) (+1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Blitz (PR: 5) (-1)

    7. Maria (PR: 9) (+2)

    8. Conclave (PR: 7) (-1)

    9. Emilia Pérez (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Saturday Night

    Best Sound

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Wicked (PR: 3) (+1)

    3. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (+3)

    4. Gladiator II (PR: 2) (-2)

    5. Blitz (PR: 4) (-1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Nosferatu (PR: 5) (-1)

    7. Twisters (PR: 7) (E)

    8. The Substance (PR: 9) (+1)

    9. A Complete Unknown (PR: 10) (+1)

    10. Conclave (PR: 8) (-2)

    Best Visual Effects

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Wicked (PR: 4) (+1)

    4. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. Twisters (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Better Man (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Mufasa: The Lion King (PR: 8) (+1)

    8. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 7) (-1)

    9. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 9) (E)

    10. Nosferatu (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Blitz

    And that works out to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:

    11 Nominations

    Dune: Part Two

    10 Nominations

    The Brutalist

    8 Nominations

    Conclave, Emilia Pérez

    7 Nominations

    Wicked

    6 Nominations

    Sing Sing, The Substance

    5 Nominations

    Anora, Gladiator II

    4 Nominations

    Nosferatu

    3 Nominations

    Nickel Boys, A Real Pain, The Wild Robot

    2 Nominations

    Maria, The Seed of the Sacred Fig

    1 Nomination

    Black Box Diaries, Blitz, A Complete Unknown, A Different Man, Flow, The Girl with the Needle, I’m Still Here, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Memoir of a Snail, No Other Land, The Piano Lesson, Queer, The Room Next Door, The Six Triple Eight, Sugarcane, Twisters, Union, Vermiglio, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, Will & Harper

    97th Academy Awards Predictions: November 17th Edition

    My first Oscar predictions in two weeks and it’s about what narratives I’m buying and which ones I’m selling. For example, I’m currently not sold that Paramount’s September 5 is the contender that some other prognosticators think it is.

    On the flip side, I am starting to buy that Conclave is on the rise. The Focus Features effort from Edward Berger is performing well at the box office for an adult skewering drama. I think it has to a shot to win the big prize and that’s why you’ll see it elevated in multiple categories.

    While my BP and directorial and Best Actress lineups are unchanged as far as hopefuls, Daniel Craig (Queer) returns to my Actor quintet at the expense of Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice). In Supporting Actor, it is the same five but Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain) is perched atop the list for the first time. In Supporting Actress, I’m banking on Isabella Rossellini potentially riding that Conclave goodwill and that leaves Ariana Grande (Wicked) on the outside looking in.

    You can read all the movement below and the next update should arrive on Thanksgiving weekend!

    Best Picture

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. The Brutalist (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

    2. Conclave (PR: 5) (+3)

    3. Anora (PR: 2) (-1)

    4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (-1)

    6. Sing Sing (PR: 6) (E)

    7. A Real Pain (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Wicked (PR: 10) (+2)

    9. Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (E)

    10. Blitz (PR: 8) (-2)

    Other Possibilities:

    11. Gladiator II (PR: 11) (E)

    12. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 12) (E)

    13. The Substance (PR: 14) (+1)

    14. Nosferatu (PR: 15) (+1)

    15. A Complete Unknown (PR: 13) (-2)

    Best Director

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Brady Corbet, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 5) (+2)

    4. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (-2)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Coralie Fargeat, The Substance (PR: 8) (+2)

    7. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 7) (-1)

    9. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. Robert Eggers, Nosferatu (PR: 10) (E)

    Dropped Out:

    Steve McQueen, Blitz

    Best Actress

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: 8) (+1)

    8. Nicole Kidman, Babygirl (PR: 7) (-1)

    9. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked (PR: 10) (+1)

    10. Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here (PR: 9) (-1)

    Best Actor

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Adrien Brody, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 3) (+1)

    3. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 2) (-1)

    4. Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 6) (+1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain (PR: 7) (+1)

    7. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 8) (+1)

    8. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 5) (-3)

    9. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 10) (+1)

    10. Paul Mescal, Gladiator II (PR: 9) (-1)

    Best Supporting Actress

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 3) (+1)

    3. Felicity Jones, The Brutalist (PR: 4) (+1)

    4. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 2) (-2)

    5. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 6) (+1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Ariana Grande, Wicked (PR: 5) (-1)

    7. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Margaret Qualley, The Substance (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 9) (-1)

    Dropped Out:

    Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters

    Best Supporting Actor

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 2) (+1)

    2. Guy Pearce, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (-1)

    3. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 5) (+2)

    4. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 3) (-2)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Yura Borisov, Anora (PR: 7) (+1)

    7. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown (PR: 9) (E)

    10. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    John Magaro, September 5

    Best Original Screenplay

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)

    2. The Brutalist (PR: 2) (E)

    3. A Real Pain (PR: 3) (E)

    4. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Saturday Night (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. The Substance (PR: 9) (+3)

    7. September 5 (PR: 8) (+1)

    8. Hard Truths (PR: 6) (-2)

    9. Blitz (PR: 7) (-2)

    10. Challengers (PR: 10) (E)

    Best Adapted Screenplay

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Conclave (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Nickel Boys (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Sing Sing (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (E)

    5. I’m Still Here (PR: 7) (+2)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (E)

    7. The Room Next Door (PR: 5) (-2)

    8. Hit Man (PR: 9) (+1)

    9. The Piano Lesson (PR: 10) (+1)

    10. A Complete Unknown (PR: 8) (-2)

    Best International Feature Film

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

    2. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 2) (E)

    3. I’m Still Here (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Vermiglio (PR: 4) (E)

    5. The Girl with the Needle (PR: 8) (+3)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Kneecap (PR: 7) (+1)

    7. Universal Language (PR: 5) (-2)

    8. Dahomey (PR: Not Ranked)

    9. How to Make Millions Before Grandma Dies (PR: 6) (-3)

    10. Grand Tour (PR: 9) (-1)

    Dropped Out:

    Armand

    Best Animated Feature Film

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. The Wild Robot (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Memoir of a Snail (PR: 3) (+1)

    3. Inside Out 2 (PR: 2) (-1)

    4. Flow (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Piece by Piece (PR: 9) (+3)

    7. Moana 2 (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. Savages (PR: 8) (E)

    9. The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim (PR: 7) (-2)

    10. Spellbound (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    The Most Precious of Cargoes

    Best Documentary Feature

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. No Other Land (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Black Box Diaries (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Daughters (PR: 6) (+3)

    4. Will & Harper (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. Sugarcane (PR: 7) (+2)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Dahomey (PR: 8) (+2)

    7. Union (PR: 5) (-2)

    8. The Remarkable Life of Ibelin (PR: 9) (+1)

    9. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat (PR: 4) (-5)

    10. Separated (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Gaucho Gaucho

    Best Cinematography

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Conclave (PR: 5) (+1)

    5. Nosferatu (PR: 8) (+3)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Blitz (PR: 4) (-2)

    7. Nickel Boys (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Maria (PR: 9) (+1)

    9. Gladiator II (PR: 10) (+1)

    10. Anora (PR: 6) (-4)

    Best Costume Design

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Wicked (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Nosferatu (PR: 5) (+1)

    5. Blitz (PR: 6) (+1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Maria (PR: 4) (-2)

    7. The Brutalist (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 9) (+1)

    9. Saturday Night (PR: 10) (+1)

    10. Conclave (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga

    Best Film Editing

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. The Brutalist (PR: 2) (+1)

    2. Anora (PR: 3) (+1)

    3. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (-2)

    4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Conclave (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Sing Sing (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Nickel Boys (PR: 7) (E)

    8. The Substance (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Blitz (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. Challengers (PR: 10) (E)

    Dropped Out:

    Saturday Night

    Best Makeup and Hairstyling

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

    2. The Substance (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Nosferatu (PR: 6) (+3)

    4. A Different Man (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. Wicked (PR: 4) (-1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Maria (PR: 7) (+1)

    7. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 9) (+2)

    8. Emilia Pérez (PR: Not Ranked)

    9. Sasquatch Sunset (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 5) (-5)

    Dropped Out:

    Joker: Folie à Deux

    Best Original Score

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Conclave (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (E)

    4. The Wild Robot (PR: 5) (+1)

    5. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (-1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Challengers (PR: 7) (+1)

    7. Sing Sing (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. Saturday Night (PR: 9) (+1)

    9. Gladiator II (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. Nosferatu (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Blitz

    Best Original Song

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

    2. “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing (PR: 2) (E)

    3. “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (E)

    4. “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot (PR: 5) (+1)

    5. “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper (PR: 6) (+1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. “Forbidden Road” from Better Man (PR: 4) (-2)

    7. “The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight (PR: 8) (+1)

    8. “Piece by Piece” from Piece by Piece (PR: 9) (+1)

    9. “Beyond” from Moana 2 (PR: 10) (+1)

    10. “Better Way to Live” from Kneecap (PR: 7) (-3)

    Best Production Design

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Wicked (PR: 3) (+1)

    3. Gladiator II (PR: 2) (-1)

    4. Nosferatu (PR: 6) (+2)

    5. Blitz (PR: 4) (-1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. The Brutalist (PR: 5) (-1)

    7. Conclave (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Emilia Pérez (PR: 10) (+2)

    9. Maria (PR: 9) (E)

    10. Saturday Night (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga

    Best Sound

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Gladiator II (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Wicked (PR: 4) (E)

    4. Blitz (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Nosferatu (PR: Not Ranked)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Twisters (PR: 5) (-2)

    8. Conclave (PR: 7) (-1)

    9. The Substance (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. A Complete Unknown (PR: 8) (-2)

    Dropped Out:

    Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga

    Civil War

    Best Visual Effects

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Wicked (PR: 7) (+3)

    5. Twisters (PR: 4) (-1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Better Man (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 5) (-2)

    8. Mufasa: The Lion King (PR: 9) (+1)

    9. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. Blitz (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Here

    And that equates to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:

    11 Nominations

    Dune: Part Two

    10 Nominations

    Emilia Pérez

    9 Nominations

    The Brutalist, Conclave

    6 Nominations

    Wicked

    5 Nominations

    Anora, Blitz, Gladiator II, Nosferatu, Sing Sing

    3 Nominations

    A Real Pain, The Wild Robot

    2 Nominations

    I’m Still Here, Nickel Boys, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, Will & Harper

    1 Nomination

    Black Box Diaries, A Complete Unknown, Daughters, A Different Man, Flow, The Girl with the Needle, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Maria, Memoir of a Snail, The Outrun, Nightbitch, No Other Land, The Piano Lesson, Queer, Saturday Night, The Substance, Sugarcane, Twisters, Vermiglio, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl

    97th Academy Awards Predictions: October 20th Edition

    It’s been two weeks since I’ve updated my predictions in the feature-length categories and developments have occurred. Steve McQueen’s Blitz opened the London Film Festival and its Oscar stock took a hit. While I still have it being nominated in five categories including Picture and Supporting Actress (Saoirse Ronan), it falls out of my high five in Director and Original Screenplay, among others.

    Another significant screening was the industry’s first look at Gladiator II a month before it debuts. With the caveat that these previews are often hyperbolic, the 24 years in the making sequel’s fortunes improved. I now have it contending for seven statues including Best Picture. Its rise causes The Room Next Door to drop out of my 10 BP hopefuls. Denzel Washington also re-enters my Supporting Actor picks with Stanley Tucci (Conclave) now on the outside looking in.

    In Director, Blitz‘s McQueen is out in favor of RaMell Ross of Nickel Boys. I’ve put Daniel Craig back in my Actor quintet at the expense of Sebastian Stan in The Apprentice (which opened to dismal box office).

    You can read all the movement below!

    Best Picture

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. The Brutalist (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

    2. Anora (PR: 3) (+1)

    3. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (+1)

    4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (+1)

    5. Sing Sing (PR: 6) (+1)

    6. Conclave (PR: 7) (+1)

    7. Blitz (PR: 2) (-5)

    8. Gladiator II (PR: Not Ranked)

    9. Nickel Boys (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. A Real Pain (PR: 10) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    11. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 14) (+3)

    12. The Room Next Door (PR: 9) (-3)

    13. A Complete Unknown (PR: 13) (E)

    14. September 5 (PR: 12) (-2)

    15. The Substance (PR: 15) (E)

    Dropped Out:

    Saturday Night

    Best Director

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Brady Corbet, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (+1)

    3. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 4) (+1)

    4. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (+1)

    5. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: 6) (+1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 7) (+1)

    7. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 8) (+1)

    8. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 2) (-6)

    9. Ridley Scott, Gladiator II (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. Coralie Fargeat, The Substance (PR: 10) (E)

    Dropped Out:

    Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing

    Best Actress

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 9) (+3)

    7. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: 8) (+1)

    8. Nicole Kidman, Babygirl (PR: 6) (-2)

    9. Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here (PR: 10) (+1)

    10. Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door (PR: 7) (-3)

    Best Actor

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Adrien Brody, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 3) (+1)

    3. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 2) (-1)

    4. Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 6) (+1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 5) (-1)

    7. Paul Mescal, Gladiator II (PR: Not Ranked)

    8. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 7) (-1)

    9. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 9) (E)

    10. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 8) (-2)

    Dropped Out:

    Nicholas Hoult, Juror No. 2

    Best Supporting Actress

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Felicity Jones, The Brutalist (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 7) (+1)

    7. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 9) (+1)

    9. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. Fernanda Montenegro, I’m Still Here (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Toni Collette, Juror No. 2

    Best Supporting Actor

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Guy Pearce, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 3) (+1)

    3. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 6) (+3)

    4. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 2) (-2)

    5. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 4) (-2)

    7. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown (PR: 8) (+1)

    8. Ray Fisher, The Piano Lesson (PR: 9) (+1)

    9. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 7) (-2)

    10. John Magaro, September 5 (PR: 10) (E)

    Best Original Screenplay

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)

    2. The Brutalist (PR: 2) (E)

    3. A Real Pain (PR: 3) (E)

    4. September 5 (PR: 6) (+2)

    5. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 8) (+3)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Blitz (PR: 4) (-2)

    7. Saturday Night (PR: 5) (-2)

    8. Hard Truths (PR: 7) (-1)

    9. The Substance (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. His Three Daughters (PR: 9) (-1)

    Dropped Out:

    Dídi

    Best Adapted Screenplay

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Conclave (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Nickel Boys (PR: 3) (+1)

    3. Sing Sing (PR: 2) (-1)

    4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 6) (+2)

    5. The Room Next Door (PR: 4) (-1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (-1)

    7. Hit Man (PR: 7) (E)

    8. I’m Still Here (PR: 8) (E)

    9. The Piano Lesson (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. Gladiator II (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Queer

    A Complete Unknown

    Best International Feature Film

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

    2. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 2) (E)

    3. I’m Still Here (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Vermiglio (PR: 5) (+1)

    5. The Girl with the Needle (PR: 7) (+2)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Universal Language (PR: 4) (-2)

    7. How to Make Millions Before Grandma Dies (PR: Not Ranked)

    8. Grand Tour (PR: 6) (-2)

    9. Kneecap (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. Armand (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Cloud

    Flow

    Best Animated Feature

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Inside Out 2 (PR: 1) (E)

    2. The Wild Robot (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Memoir of a Snail (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Flow (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Moana 2 (PR: 7) (+1)

    7. Piece by Piece (PR: 9) (+2)

    8. Savages (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Orion and the Dark (PR: 6) (-3)

    10. The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Wohirrim (PR: 10) (E)

    Best Documentary Feature

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. No Other Land (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Will & Harper (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Daughters (PR: 4) (+1)

    4. Black Box Diaries (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. Union (PR: 6) (+1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. The Remarkable Life of Ibelin (PR: Not Ranked)

    7. Sugarcane (PR: 5) (-2)

    8. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat (PR: 7) (-1)

    9. Dahomey (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. Gaucho Gaucho (PR: 9) (-1)

    Dropped Out:

    Apocalypse in the Tropics

    Best Cinematography

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (+3)

    4. Blitz (PR: 2) (-2)

    5. Anora (PR: 4) (-1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Maria (PR: 5) (-1)

    7. Nosferatu (PR: 8) (+1)

    8. Gladiator II (PR: 7) (+1)

    9. Nickel Boys (PR: 10) (+1)

    10. Conclave (PR: 9) (-1)

    Best Costume Design

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Gladiator II (PR: 7) (+5)

    3. Wicked (PR: 2) (-1)

    4. Maria (PR: 5) (+1)

    5. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (-1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Blitz (PR: 3) (-3)

    7. The Brutalist (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 9) (+1)

    9. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 10) (E)

    Best Film Editing

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. The Brutalist (PR: 4) (+3)

    2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (-1)

    3. Anora (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (+1)

    5. Sing Sing (PR: 6) (+1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Conclave (PR: 7) (+1)

    7. Blitz (PR: 2) (-5)

    8. Nickel Boys (PR: Not Ranked)

    9. Gladiator II (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. Challengers (PR: 9) (-1)

    Dropped Out:

    Saturday Night

    September 5

    Best Makeup & Hairstyling

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Wicked (PR: 4) (+2)

    3. A Different Man (PR: 3) (E)

    4. The Substance (PR: 5) (+1)

    5. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 6) (+1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Nosferatu (PR: 2) (-4)

    7. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Maria (PR: 9) (+1)

    9. Sasquatch Sunset (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 10) (E)

    Best Original Score

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Conclave (PR: 4) (+2)

    3. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (-1)

    4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. Gladiator II (PR: 7) (+2)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. The Wild Robot (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Sing Sing (PR: 5) (-2)

    8. Challengers (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Blitz (PR: 9) (E)

    10. Saturday Night (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    The Room Next Door

    Best Original Song

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 9) (+8)

    2. “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot (PR: 5) (+3)

    3. “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing (PR: 2) (-1)

    4. “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. “Forbidden Road” from Better Man (PR: 4) (-1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. “The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight (PR: 6) (E)

    7. “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (-6)

    8. “Better Way to Live” from Kneecap (PR: 8) (E)

    9. “Piece by Piece” from Piece by Piece (PR: 7) (-2)

    10. “Never Too Late” from Elton John: Never Too Late (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    “Folie à Deux” from Joker: Folie à Deux

    Best Production Design

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (+1)

    3. The Brutalist (PR: 4) (+1)

    4. Blitz (PR: 2) (-2)

    5. Nosferatu (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Conclave (PR: 7) (+1)

    7. Wicked (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 9) (+1)

    9. Maria (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Saturday Night

    Best Sound

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (+2)

    3. Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Blitz (PR: 2) (-2)

    5. Wicked (PR: 6) (+1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. The Brutalist (PR: 5) (-1)

    7. Conclave (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Civil War (PR: Not Ranked)

    9. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. A Complete Unknown (PR: 9) (-1)

    Dropped Out:

    Joker: Folie à Deux

    Best Visusal Effects

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Twisters (PR: 7) (+3)

    5. Here (PR: 4) (-1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 5) (-1)

    7. Better Man (PR: 8) (+1)

    8. Wicked (PR: 10) (+2)

    9. Mufasa: The Lion King (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 9) (-1)

    Dropped Out:

    Blitz

    And that all works out to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:

    11 Nominations

    Dune: Part Two

    10 Nominations

    The Brutalist, Emilia Pérez

    7 Nominations

    Gladiator II

    6 Nominations

    Anora, Sing Sing

    5 Nominations

    Blitz, Conclave

    3 Nominations

    Nickel Boys, A Real Pain, Wicked

    2 Nominations

    Maria, Nosferatu, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, The Wild Robot, Will & Harper

    1 Nomination

    The Apprentice, Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, Better Man, Black Box Diaries, A Complete Unknown, Daughters, A Different Man, Flow, The Girl with the Needle, Here, I’m Still Here, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Memoir of a Snail, Nightbitch, No Other Land, The Outrun, The Piano Lesson, Queer, The Room Next Door, September 5, The Substance, Twisters, Union, Vermiglio, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl

    97th Academy Awards Predictions: October 6th Edition

    At the 92nd Academy Awards that occurred in February 2020, Joker led the way with 11 nominations and 2 victories for Joaquin Phoenix in Actor and the Original Score. At the 97th ceremony, the story will be much different. Joker: Folie à Deux debuted yesterday. It currently has matching 32% ratings with critics and audiences and a D Cinemascore grade (the worst of 2024 and lower than Megalopolis).

    A couple of months ago, Deux was seen as a repeat possibility in Best Picture and for Phoenix and costar Lady Gaga. Now I think it’s a legitimate question as to whether Joker gets any nominations at all. Even with the poor word-of-mouth and incoming subpar box office numbers, some tech races are still viable. However, I would not surprised if it totally blanks. That’s what I’m projecting at the moment.

    We have a change in Best Picture with The Room Next Door back in over Saturday Night. There’s been a consistent 5 in Best Actor for weeks, but that’s interrupted with Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice) sliding in with Daniel Craig (Queer) falling to sixth. In Supporting Actress, Isabella Rossellini (Conclave) rises over Selena Gomez (Emilia Pérez).

    Speaking of Pérez, there’s uncertainty whether it will contend for Original or Adapted Screenplay. I’ve had it in the former and it now moves to the latter.

    You can read all the movement below!

    Best Picture

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. The Brutalist (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

    2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Anora (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (+1)

    6. Sing Sing (PR: 5) (-1)

    7. Conclave (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (+1)

    9. The Room Next Door (PR: 11) (+2)

    10. A Real Pain (PR: 10) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    11. Saturday Night (PR: 8) (-3)

    12. September 5 (PR: 14) (+2)

    13. A Complete Unknown (PR: 13) (E)

    14. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 12) (-2)

    15. The Substance (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Nosferatu

    Best Director

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Brady Corbet, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: 8) (+2)

    7. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 7 (E)

    8. Mohammad Rasolouf, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 6) (-2)

    9. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: 9) (E)

    10. Coralie Fargeat, The Substance (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Jason Reitman, Saturday Night

    Best Actress

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Nicole Kidman, Babygirl (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: 9) (+1)

    9. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here (PR: 10) (E)

    Best Actor

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Adrien Brody, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 3) (+1)

    3. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 2) (-1)

    4. Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 6) (+1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 5) (-1)

    7. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 7) (E)

    8. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: Not Ranked)

    9. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. Nicholas Hoult, Juror No. 2 (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Jesse Plemons, Kinds of Kindness

    Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie à Deux

    Best Supporting Actress

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Felicity Jones, The Brutalist (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 6) (+1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (-1)

    7. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 8) (+1)

    8. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: 9) (+1)

    9. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 10) (+1)

    10. Toni Collette, Juror No. 2 (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie à Deux

    Best Supporting Actor

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Guy Pearce, The Brutalist (PR: 2) (+1)

    2. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (-1)

    3. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Ray Fisher, The Piano Lesson (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. John Magaro, September 5 (PR: 9) (-1)

    Dropped Out:

    Drew Starkey, Queer

    Best Original Screenplay

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)

    2. The Brutalist (PR: 3) (+1)

    3. A Real Pain (PR: 2) (-1)

    4. Blitz (PR: 5) (+1)

    5. Saturday Night (PR: 4) (-1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. September 5 (PR: 9) (+3)

    7. Hard Truths (PR: 8) (+1)

    8. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 7) (-1)

    9. His Three Daughters (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. Dídi (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Emilia Pérez – moved to Adapted Screenplay

    The Substance

    Best Adapted Screenplay

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Conclave (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Sing Sing (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Nickel Boys (PR: 3) (E)

    4. The Room Next Door (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Emilia Pérez (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from Original Screenplay

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Dune: Part Two (PR: 5) (-1)

    7. Hit Man (PR: 7) (E)

    8. I’m Still Here (PR: 10) (+2)

    9. Queer (PR: 6) (-3)

    10. A Complete Unknown (PR: 8) (-2)

    Dropped Out:

    The Piano Lesson

    Best International Feature Film

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

    2. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 2) (E)

    3. I’m Still Here (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Universal Language (PR: 6) (+2)

    5. Vermiglio (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Grand Tour (PR: 4) (-2)

    7. The Girl with the Needle (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Kneecap (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Cloud (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. Flow (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Dahomey

    Caught by the Tides

    Best Animated Feature

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Inside Out 2 (PR: 1) (E)

    2. The Wild Robot (PR: 3) (E)

    3. Memoir of a Snail (PR: 4) (+1)

    4. Flow (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (PR: 5 (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Orion and the Dark (PR: 8) (+2)

    7. Moana 2 (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Savages (PR: 9) (+1)

    9. Piece by Piece (PR: 6) (-3)

    10. The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim (PR: 10) (E)

    Best Documentary Feature

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. No Other Land (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Will & Harper (PR: 3) (+1)

    3. Black Box Diaries (PR: 4) (+1)

    4. Daughters (PR: 2) (-2)

    5. Sugarcane (PR: 6) (+1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Union (PR: 8) (+2)

    7. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Dahomey (PR: 5) (-3)

    9. Gaucho Gaucho (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: 10) (E)

    Dropped Out:

    Separated

    Best Cinematography

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (+1)

    3. Blitz (PR: 2) (-1)

    4. Anora (PR: 9) (+5)

    5. Maria (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Gladiator II (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (-4)

    9. Conclave (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. Nickel Boys (PR: 10) (E)

    Dropped Out:

    Joker: Folie à Deux

    Best Costume Design

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Wicked (PR: 5) (+3)

    3. Blitz (PR: 4) (+1)

    4. Nosferatu (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. Maria (PR: 7) (+2)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. The Brutalist (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Gladiator II (PR: 2) (-5)

    8. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: Not Ranked)

    9. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 10) (+1)

    10. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 8) (-2)

    Dropped Out:

    Saturday Night

    Best Film Editing

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Anora (PR: 3) (E)

    4. The Brutalist (PR: 6) (+1)

    5. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (-1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Sing Sing (PR: 7) (+!)

    7. Conclave (PR: 8) (+1)

    8. Saturday Night (PR: 5) (-3)

    9. Challengers (PR: 10) (+1)

    10. September 5 (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Gladiator II

    Best Makeup and Hairstyling

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Nosferatu (PR: 2) (E)

    3. A Different Man (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Wicked (PR: 4) (E)

    5. The Substance (PR: 6) (+1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 5) (-1)

    7. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 10) (+3)

    8. Sasquatch Sunset (PR: 9) (+1)

    9. Maria (PR: 7) (-2)

    10. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 8) (-2)

    Best Original Score

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Emilia Pérez (PR: 8) (+5)

    4. Conclave (PR: 5) (+1)

    5. Sing Sing (PR: 4) (-1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. The Wild Robot (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (-4)

    8. Challengers (PR: 9) (+1)

    9. Blitz (PR: 10) (+1)

    10. The Room Next Door (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Joker: Folie à Deux

    Best Original Song

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

    2. “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing (PR: 2) (E)

    3. “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper (PR: 4) (+1)

    4. “Forbidden Road” from Better Man (PR: 10) (+6)

    5. “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot (PR: 7) (+2)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. “The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight (PR: 8) (+2)

    7. “Piece by Piece” from Piece by Piece (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. “Better Way to Live” from Kneecap (PR: 5) (-3)

    9. “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 9) (E)

    10. “Folie à Deux” from Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    “Harley and Joker Waltz” from Joker: Folie à Deux

    Best Production Design

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)

    4. The Brutalist (PR: 5) (+1)

    5. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (-1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Wicked (PR: 8) (+2)

    7. Conclave (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. Maria (PR: 10) (+2)

    9. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 7) (-2)

    10. Saturday Night (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Joker: Folie à Deux

    Best Sound

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (+1)

    4. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. The Brutalist (PR: 8) (+3)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Wicked (PR: 7) (+1)

    7. Conclave (PR: Not Ranked)

    8. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 9) (+1)

    9. A Complete Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 5) (-5)

    Dropped Out:

    Nosferatu

    Twisters

    Best Visual Effects

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Here (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 8) (+3)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Blitz (PR: 5) (-1)

    7. Twisters (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. Better Man (PR: 9) (+1)

    9. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 10) (+1)

    10. Wicked (PR: 7) (-3)

    That equates to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:

    11 Nominations

    The Brutalist

    10 Nominations

    Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez

    9 Nominations

    Blitz

    6 Nominations

    Anora, Conclave, Sing Sing

    3 Nominations

    Gladiator II, Maria, Nosferatu, A Real Pain

    2 Nominations

    The Apprentice, Nickel Boys, The Room Next Door, Wicked, The Wild Robot, Will & Harper

    1 Nomination

    Better Man, Black Box Diaries, A Complete Unknown, Daughters, A Different Man, Flow, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, Here, I’m Still Here, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Memoir of a Snail, Nightbitch, No Other Land, The Outrun, The Piano Lesson, Saturday Night, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, The Substance, Sugarcane, Universal Language, Vermiglio, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl