Tag: Dominic Sessa

99th Academy Awards Predictions: May 6th Edition

My second helping of ranked Oscar predictions for next year’s 99th ceremony can be called the pre-Cannes estimates. That festival in the French Riviera kicks off May 12th and runs through May 23rd. It will be our first look at several potential contenders: Ryusuke Hamaguchi’s All of a Sudden, Pawel Pawlikowski’s Fatherland, Cristian Mungiu’s Fjord, Na Hong-jin’s Hope, James Gray’s Paper Tiger, and The Man I Love from Ira Sachs to name a few. Keep an eye on the blog for my individual posts exploring the viability of the screening pictures.

The Academy made some news of its own by announcing rule changes. The most significant is that actors can be nominated twice in the same category. There’s been recent examples of when this could have resulted in a performer getting two nods. I would say most recently that Sebastian Stan could have benefited. He was nominated in lead Actor for The Apprentice and a double shot was possible via A Different Man. Going back a ways, Kate Winslet won Best Actress in 2008 for The Reader and might have seen her name pop again for Revolutionary Road. In 2006, Kate’s Titanic mate Leonardo DiCaprio was in contention for Blood Diamond. He could have easily landed another shot via The Departed.

In International Feature Film, the criteria has always been that a submitting nation can choose just one entrant for consideration. While that rule holds, the Academy has added another path to get in. If a picture wins a qualifying international festival (such as Cannes, Berlin, Toronto, Sundance, Venice), it is now a contender. This would have helped Anatomy of a Fall in 2023 since France did not choose it as their representative picture, but it emerged victorious for the Palme d’Or at Cannes.

Since my last update in mid-April, Michael opened to gigantic box office and mediocre reviews. While the audience score on Rotten Tomatoes is high, critical griping could cripple its viability at the Oscars. However, I wouldn’t completely rule out the acclaimed work of Jaafar Jackson and Colman Domingo. Best Picture? Probably a bridge too far despite the gaudy numbers.

The Devil Wears Prada 2 also hit multiplexes. While Meryl Streep was a Best Actress nominee 20 years ago for the original, a second at-bat seems like a reach. The sequel could materialize, however, in Costume Design and/or Original Song where Lady Gaga has a track. Those categories won’t be forecasted until a few weeks down the line.

We also learned that Narnia: The Magician’s Nephew from Greta Gerwig will not be out (on Netflix) until 2027. I had it on the outside looking in at #11. It drops from contention this time around.

You can read all the speculation below and my next update will arrive as Cannes concludes!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)

3. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Digger (PR: 5) (E)

5. Fjord (PR: 6) (E)

6. No One Cares (PR: 6) (E)

7. Fatherland (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Dune: Part Three (PR: 10) (+2)

9. The Social Reckoning (PR: 9) (E)

10. All of a Sudden (PR: 7) (-3)

Other Possibilities:

11. Hope (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Cry to Heaven (PR: 16) (+4)

13. A Place in Hell (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Paper Tiger (PR: 21) (+7)

15. Werwulf (PR: 18) (+3)

16. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 23) (+7)

17. Josephine (PR: 17) (E)

18. Saturn Return (PR: 22) (+4)

19. The Entertainment System is Down (PR: 14) (-5)

20. Jack of Spades (PR: 24) (+4)

21. Being Heumann (PR: 15) (-6)

22. A Long Winter (PR: 13) (-9)

23. Behemoth! (PR: 25) (+2)

24. Michael (PR: 20) (-4)

25. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 19) (-6)

Dropped Out:

Narnia: The Magician’s Nephew

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Alejandro Gonzalez Iñárritu, Digger (PR: 2) (E)

3. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Cristian Mingiu, Fjord (PR: 3) (+1)

5. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Pawel Pawlikowski, Fatherland (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Jesse Eisenberg, No One Cares (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Na Hong-jin, Hope (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Tom Ford, Cry to Heaven (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Aaron Sorkin, The Social Reckoning (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Robert Eggers, Werwulf (PR: 14) (+1)

14. James Gray, Paper Tiger (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Greg Kwedar, Saturn Return (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Greta Gerwig, Narnia: The Magician’s Nephew

Ruben Östlund, The Entertainment System is Down

David Fincher, The Adventures of Cliff Booth

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Renate Reinsve, Fjord (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sandra Hüller, Fatherland (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Julianne Moore, No One Cares (PR: 3) (E)

4. Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Michelle Williams, A Place in Hell (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden (PR: 6) (E)

7. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Sandra Hüller, Rose (PR: 11) (+3)

9. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Sophie Okonedo, Clarissa (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Mason Reeves, Josephine (PR: 8) (-3)

12. Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 14) (+2)

13. Rachel Brosnahan, Saturn Return (PR: 13) (E)

14. Penélope Cruz, Bunker (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Lily Gladstone, The Memory Police (PR: 12) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Amy Adams, At the Sea

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Tom Cruise, Digger (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sebastian Stan, Fjord (PR: 4) (+1)

4. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Hanns Zischler, Fatherland (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Matt Damon, The Odyssey (PR: 6) (E)

7. Dominic Sessa, Tony (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Jaafar Jackson, Michael (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Nicholas Hoult, Cry to Heaven (PR: 9) (E)

10. John Turturro, The Only Living Pickpocket in New York (PR: 15) (+5)

11. Jeremy Allen White, The Social Reckoning (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Adam Driver, Paper Tiger (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Josh O’Connor, Jack of Spades (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Rami Malek, The Man I Love (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Three (PR: 11) (-4)

Dropped Out:

Robert Aramayo, I Swear

Pedro Pascal, Behemoth!

Brad Pitt, The Adventures of Cliff Booth

Charles Melton, Saturn Return

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mariana di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Sandra Hüller, Digger (PR: 6) (+4)

3. Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (-2)

4. Halle Bailey, No One Cares (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Daisy Edgar-Jones, A Place in Hell (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Tao Okamato, All of a Sudden (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 8) (E)

9. Scarlett Johannson, Paper Tiger (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Lesley Manville, Jack of Spades (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Esmé Creed-Miles, Sense and Sensibility (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Kirsten Dunst, The Entertainment System is Down (PR: 12) (E)

13. Caitriona Balfe, A Long Winter (PR: 9) (-4)

14. Penélope Cruz, The Invite (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Gemma Chan, Josephine (PR: 13) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Wunmi Mosaku, The Social Reckoning

Frances McDormand, Jack of Spades

Elizabeth Debicki, The Adventures of Cliff Booth

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Paul Giamatti, No One Cares (PR: 1) (E)

2. John Goodman, Digger (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Robert Pattinson, The Odyssey (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning (PR: 6) (-1)

7. Colman Domingo, Michael (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Andrew Scott, A Place in Hell (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Tom Holland, The Odyssey (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Jesse Plemons, Digger (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Channing Tatum, Josephine (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Mark Ruffalo, Being Heumann (PR: 9) (-3)

13. David Oyelowo, Clarissa (PR: 13) (E)

14. Antonio Banderas, Tony (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Cry to Heaven (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Daniel Brühl, The Entertainment System is Down

Riz Ahmed, Digger

    99th Academy Awards Predictions: April 19th Edition

    Barely a month beyond the 98th edition of the Academy Awards, we have arrived at my first ranked predictions for the 99th ceremony. We begin with six major categories – Best Picture, Director, and the four acting derbies.

    I gave you my first ranked glimpses for the previous telecast around the same time last year in these same races. How did that impossibly early forecast turn out? I correctly called four of the eventual ten BP nominees with Hamnet, Marty Supreme, Sentimental Value, and Sinners. Winner One Battle After Another as well as Bugonia, F1, and Frankenstein were listed in Other Possibilities. So 80% of the BP contenders were identified with The Secret Agent and Train Dreams not being mentioned in April 2025.

    In Best Director, three of the five filmmakers were predicted: Ryan Coogler (Sinners), Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme), and Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value). Statue recipient Paul Thomas Anderson from One Battle and Chloé Zhao (Hamnet) were in Other Possibilities.

    As for Best Actress, Jessie Buckley (Hamnet) swept the season and was in my predicted quintet. So was Sentimental Value‘s Renate Reinsve while Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You) and Emma Stone (Bugonia) were in Other Possibilities. Only Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue) wasn’t listed. In Best Actor, Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme) was in my quintet. Three others – winner Michael B. Jordan (Sinners), Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another), and Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon) were Other Possibilities with Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent) as the sole thespian not identified.

    My projected Supporting Actress five rightly named Teyana Taylor (One Battle) with Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value) as a possibility. Fanning’s costar Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Wumni Mosaku (Sinners), and the victorious Amy Madigan (Weapons) were not found among my possibilities. In Supporting Actor, Stellan Skarsgård from Value was in my five with winner Sean Penn (One Battle) and Delroy Lindo (Sinners) as possibilities. Battle‘s Benicio del Toro and Frankenstein‘s Jacob Elordi were not to be found yet.

    Let’s get some caveats out of the way. Some of the performers listed in lead will end up in supporting and vice versa. As an example, I figured Paul Mescal (Hamnet) would go lead for that film last year, but he was slotted in supporting. He ended up not being nominated but likely came close. For instance in this year’s listings, I don’t know if Sam Rockwell will be lead or supporting for Wild Horse Nine but my hunch says the latter at press time. The distributor will eventually clear that up.

    We will see pictures push to 2027. When I did my initial projections a year ago for 2025, Michael and The Rivals of Amziah King were thought to be releases for that calendar frame. Both are being put out in ’26. I have Michael still as a potential nominee in some competitions. Not so at this time for Rivals.

    And now the most important forewarning. Some movies you find below will turn out to be non-contenders. My inaugural look at the 98th Oscars listed Luca Guadagnino’s After the Hunt at #1 in Best Picture, Director, Actress (Julia Roberts), #4 in Supporting Actress (Ayo Edebiri), and #2 in Supporting Actor (Andrew Garfield). After its Venice festival premiere, the mixed to negative reaction drastically changed its narrative. It ended up with zero nominations. My April 2025 #1’s in the supporting fields – Ariana Grande (Wicked: For Good) and Adam Sandler (Jay Kelly) – did not make final cut either.

    So take this speculation as what it is – speculative. The picture and Best Picture will become clearer in time. That said, a reminder that 80% of the BP nominees were mentioned a year ago in addition to 100% of the directors and 80% of the lead acting hopefuls could be found in the initial post. On the flip side, nearly all of my acting picks for a nomination are coming from projected BP nominees and the percentage probably won’t be quite that high.

    When Sinners came out last year, it was a box office juggernaut with widespread critical acclaim. Yet I wondered whether the spring release could mean it would fall by the wayside months down the line. That’s why I named it in Other Possibilities for Picture, Director, Actor, and Supporting Actor. What happened months down the line? A record-setting 16 nominations with Jordan winning Actor. I won’t make the same mistake with Project Hail Mary. It has been out for weeks and already looks like a strong contender in Picture, Director, Actor, and possibly Supporting Actress. Another note – it’s not often (or maybe ever) you see a performer mentioned four times. That’s the case at the moment with the busy Sandra Hüller who is a legit threat twice in lead Actress and supporting.

    You can expect these posts to hit the blog every couple of weeks until it becomes weekly. This should occur when festival season goes into overdrive in last summer/early fall.

    BEST PICTURE

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. The Odyssey

    2. Project Hail Mary

    3. Wild Horse Nine

    4. Digger

    5. Fjord

    6. No One Cares

    7. All of a Sudden

    8. Fatherland

    9. The Social Reckoning

    10. Dune: Part Three

    Other Possibilities:

    11. Narnia: The Magican’s Nephew

    12. A Place in Hell

    13. A Long Winter

    14. The Entertainment System is Down

    15. Being Heumann

    16. Cry to Heaven

    17. Josephine

    18. Werwulf

    19. The Adventures of Cliff Booth

    20. Michael

    21. Paper Tiger

    22. Saturn Return

    23. Sense and Sensibility

    24. Jack of Spades

    25. Behemoth!

    BEST DIRECTOR

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey

    2. Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Digger

    3. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary

    4. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine

    5. Cristian Mingiu, Fjord

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden

    7. Pawel Pawlikowski, Fatherland

    8. Jesse Eisenberg, No One Cares

    9. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three

    10. Greta Gerwig, Narnia: The Magician’s Nephew

    11. Ruben Östlund, The Entertainment System is Down

    12. Tom Ford, Cry to Heaven

    13. Aaron Sorkin, The Social Reckoning

    14. Robert Eggers, Werwulf

    15. David Fincher, The Adventures of Cliff Booth

    BEST ACTRESS

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Renate Reinsve, Fjord

    2. Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning

    3. Julianne Moore, No One Cares

    4. Sandra Hüller, Fatherland

    5. Michelle Williams, A Place in Hell

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden

    7. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann

    8. Mason Reeves, Josephine

    9. Sophie Okenedo, Clarissa

    10. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie

    11. Sandra Hüller, Rose

    12. Lily Gladstone, The Memory Police

    13. Rachel Brosnahan, Saturn Return

    14. Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility

    15. Amy Adams, At the Sea

    BEST ACTOR

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Tom Cruise, Digger

    2. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary

    3. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine

    4. Sebastian Stan, Fjord

    5. Hanns Zischler, Fatherland

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Matt Damon, The Odyssey

    7. Robert Aramayo, I Swear

    8. Dominic Sessa, Tony

    9. Nicholas Hoult, Cry to Heaven

    10. Jafaar Jackson, Michael

    11. Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Three

    12. Pedro Pascal, Behemoth!

    13. Brad Pitt, The Adventures of Cliff Booth

    14. Charles Melton, Saturn Return

    15. John Turturro, The Only Pickpocket Living in New York

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine

    2. Mariana Di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine

    3. Halle Bailey, No One Cares

    4. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey

    5. Tao Okamoto, All of a Sudden

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Sandra Hüller, Digger

    7. Daisy Edgar-Jones, A Place in Hell

    8.. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary

    9. Caitriona Balfe, A Long Winter

    10. Scarlett Johansson, Paper Tiger

    11. Wunmi Mosaku, The Social Reckoning

    12. Kirsten Dunst, The Entertainment System is Down

    13. Gemma Chan, Josephine

    14. Frances McDormand, Jack of Spades

    15. Elizabeth Debicki, The Adventures of Cliff Booth

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Paul Giamatti, No One Cares

    2. John Goodman, Digger

    3. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine

    4. Colman Domingo, Michael

    5. Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine

    7. Andrew Scott, A Place in Hell

    8. Tom Holland, The Odyssey

    9. Mark Ruffalo, Being Heumann

    10. D’Pharaoh Woon-A-Tai, A Long Winter

    11. Jesse Plemons, Digger

    12. Channing Tatum, Josephine

    13. David Oyelowo, Clarissa

    14. Daniel Brühl, The Entertainment System is Down

    15. Riz Ahmed, Digger

    99th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Actor

    And we are off to the races with my first Oscar predictions for the 99th Academy Awards.

    We are a couple weeks removed from the 98th ceremony so let us begin some ridiculously early speculation! These are my inaugural glimpses at the four acting derbies, Director, and Picture. They will unfold on the blog over the next few days. I already posted my take in the supporting fields and they can be found here:

    99th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Supporting Actress
    99th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Supporting Actor

    We arrive at Best Actor. When I did my first picks for last year’s race, I correctly named one of the eventual five nominees and that was Timothée Chalamet for Marty Supreme. In Other Possibilities, I identified Leonardo DiCaprio in One Battle After Another. At that early juncture, I did not list the eventual winner Michael B. Jordan (Sinners), Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon), or Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent).

    Let’s get some caveats out of the way… it’s early. Some movies listed are likely to be pushed back or simply not turn out to be awards contenders. Actors listed here could end up being campaigned in supporting. And there will be movies we’re not even anticipating that will rise up with performances currently not on the radar.

    For this premiere post, it’s probable that we already know one member of the quintet and that’s Ryan Gosling in Project Hail Mary. His film is a box office juggernaut and he has to carry much of the running time by himself. If he makes the cut, it would mark his fourth attempt at the gold statue behind lead noms for Half Nelson and La La Land and a supporting nod for Barbie.

    He’s not the only star potentially in line for a fourth mention. The same holds true for Tom Cruise in Alejandro Gonzales Inarritu’s Digger. He won an honorary Oscar at the 98th ceremony, but is 0 for 3 in the competitive races are being up in lead for Born on the Fourth of July and Jerry Maguire and in supporting for Magnolia.

    We aren’t finished yet talking about thespians getting their fourth nominations. Matt Damon contended for lead in Good Will Hunting and The Martian and a supporting turn in Invictus. His 4th try could come via Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey.

    John Malkovich is probably going lead for Martin McDonagh’s Wild Horse Nine after two supporting attempts for Places in the Heart and In the Line of Fire. He could make it in for the first time in 33 years.

    For my fifth pick, I’m perhaps going out a limb and selecting Robert Aramayo (I Swear) who pulled off a BAFTA upset in Best Actor weeks ago. It comes out stateside in a couple of weeks and could have enough staying power for the BAFTA recipient to stake a claim. I’ll admit this a long shot projection, but hey it’s early right?

    The speculation will continue in earnest during the weeks and months ahead, but here’s the first snapshot for Best Actor. Best Actress up next!

    TODD’S FIRST OSCAR PREDICTIONS FOR BEST ACTOR AT THE 99TH ACADEMY AWARDS

    Robert Aramayo, I Swear

    Tom Cruise, Digger

    Matt Damon, The Odyssey

    Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary

    John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine

    Other Possibilities:

    Adam Driver, Paper Tiger

    Andrew Garfield, Artificial

    Nicholas Hoult, Cry to Heaven

    Jaafar Jackson, Michael

    Josh O’Connor, Jack of Spades

    Pedro Pascal, Behemoth!

    Will Poulter, Saturn Return

    Dominic Sessa, Tony

    Sebastian Stan, Fjord

    Hanns Zischler, Fatherland

    Now You See Me: Now You Don’t Box Office Prediction

    Not many eyeballs have been trained on Lionsgate releases over the last couple of years and the studio hopes that changes with Now You See Me: Now You Don’t. The third feature in the magic infused heist franchise arrives nearly a decade after the second installment. Ruben Fleischer takes over the directorial reins from Louis Leterrier (the 2013 original) and Jon M. Chu (the 2016 sequel). Jesse Eisenberg, Woody Harrelson, Dave Franco, Isla Fischer, and Morgan Freeman reprise their roles and newcomers include Justice Smith, Dominic Sessa, Ariana Greenblatt, and Rosamund Pike as the main villain.

    In the summer of 2013, part 1 was an unexpected hit with a $29 million debut and $117 million domestic haul. Three years later, the follow-up experienced diminishing returns with a $22 million start and $65 million overall gross. Unless there’s a nostalgia factor the series that I’m simply not seeing, this should experience the worst opening of the trio and that long layover doesn’t help. I’m thinking mid to high teens.

    Now You See Me: Now You Don’t opening weekend prediction: $17.1 million

    For my The Running Man prediction, click here:

    The Running Man Box Office Prediction

    For my Keeper prediction, click here:

    Keeper Box Office Prediction

    77th BAFTA Winner Predictions

    Sunday brings the 77th BAFTA Awards as we look for further clues to the pictures and performers who will emerge victorious at the Oscars next month. Oppenheimer leads the pack with 13 nominations (the same number as its Academy haul) with Poor Things in second with 11 (also matching numbers wise with its American counterpart).

    For each race, I’m giving you a predicted winner with a runner-up. I’ll have a recap on the blog with my takeaways following the ceremony!

    Film

    Nominees: Anatomy of a Fall, The Holdovers, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things

    Predicted Winner: Oppenheimer

    Runner-Up: Poor Things

    Director

    Nominees: Bradley Cooper (Maestro), Jonathan Glazer (The Zone of Interest), Andrew Haigh (All of Us Strangers), Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer), Alexander Payne (The Holdovers), Justine Triet (Anatomy of a Fall)

    Predicted Winner: Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer

    Runner-Up: Is there one?? Let’s just say Glazer

    Actress in a Leading Role

    Nominees: Fantasia Barrino (The Color Purple), Sandra Huller (Anatomy of a Fall), Carey Mulligan (Maestro), Vivian Oparah (Rye Lane), Margot Robbie (Barbie), Emma Stone (Poor Things)

    Predicted Winner: Emma Stone, Poor Things

    Runner-Up: Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall

    Actor in a Leading Role

    Nominees: Bradley Cooper (Maestro), Colman Domingo (Rustin), Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers), Barry Keoghan (Saltburn), Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer), Teo Yoo (Past Lives)

    Predicted Winner: Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer

    Runner-Up: Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers

    Actress in a Supporting Role

    Nominees: Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer), Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple), Claire Foy (All of Us Strangers), Sandra Hüller (The Zone of Interest), Rosamund Pike (Saltburn), Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers)

    Predicted Winner: Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers

    Runner-Up: Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer

    Actor in a Supporting Role

    Nominees: Robert De Niro (Killers of the Flower Moon), Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer), Jacob Elordi (Saltburn), Ryan Gosling (Barbie), Paul Mescal (All of Us Strangers), Dominic Sessa (The Holdovers)

    Predicted Winner: Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer

    Runner-Up: Ryan Gosling, Barbie

    Original Screenplay

    Nominees: Anatomy of a Fall, Barbie, The Holdovers, Maestro, Past Lives

    Predicted Winner: Anatomy of a Fall

    Runner-Up: The Holdovers

    Adapted Screenplay

    Nominees: All of Us Strangers, American Fiction, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, The Zone of Interest

    Predicted Winner: Poor Things

    Runner-Up: Oppenheimer

    Animated Feature

    Nominees: The Boy and the Heron, Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget, Elemental, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

    Predicted Winner: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

    Runner-Up: The Boy and the Heron

    Documentary

    Nominees: 20 Days in Mariupol, American Symphony, Beyond Utopia, Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie, Wham!

    Predicted Winner: 20 Days in Mariupol

    Runner-Up: Beyond Utopia

    Film Not in the English Language

    Nominees: 20 Days in Mariupol, Anatomy of a Fall, Past Lives, Society of the Snow, The Zone of Interest

    Predicted Winner: Anatomy of a Fall

    Runner-Up: The Zone of Interest

    Casting

    Nominees: All of Us Strangers, Anatomy of a Fall, The Holdovers, How to Have Sex, Killers of the Flower Moon

    Predicted Winner: All of Us Strangers

    Runner-Up: The Holdovers

    Cinematography

    Nominees: Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, The Zone of Interest

    Predicted Winner: Oppenheimer

    Runner-Up: Poor Things

    Costume Design

    Nominees: Barbie, Killers of the Flower Moon, Napoleon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things

    Predicted Winner: Poor Things

    Runner-Up: Barbie

    Editing

    Nominees: Anatomy of a Fall, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, The Zone of Interest

    Predicted Winner: Oppenheimer

    Runner-Up: Poor Things

    Make-Up & Hair

    Nominees: Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Napoleon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things

    Predicted Winner: Maestro

    Runner-Up: Poor Things

    Original Score

    Nominees: Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, Saltburn, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

    Predicted Winner: Oppenheimer

    Runner-Up: Killers of the Flower Moon

    Production Design

    Nominees: Barbie, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, The Zone of Interest

    Predicted Winner: Poor Things

    Runner-Up: Barbie

    Sound

    Nominees: Ferrari, Maestro, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning, Oppenheimer, The Zone of Interest

    Predicted Winner: Oppenheimer

    Runner-Up: The Zone of Interest

    Special Visual Effects

    Nominees: The Creator, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning, Napoleon, Poor Things

    Predicted Winner: Napoleon

    Runner-Up: The Creator

    Outstanding British Film

    Nominees: All of Us Strangers, How to Have Sex, Napoleon, The Old Oak, Poor Things, Rye Lane, Saltburn, Scrapper, Wonka, The Zone of Interest

    Predicted Winner: Poor Things

    Runner-Up: The Zone of Interest

    Outstanding Debut by a British Writer, Director or Producer

    Nominees: Blue Bag Life, Bobi Wine: The People’s President, Earth Mama, How to Have Sex, Is There Anybody Out There?

    Predicted Winner: How to Have Sex

    Runner-Up: Bobi Wine: The People’s President

    Rising Star

    Nominees: Phoebe Dynevor, Ayo Edebiri, Jacob Elordi, Mia McKenna-Bruce, Sophia Wilde

    Predicted Winner: Jacob Elordi

    Runner-Up: Mia McKenna-Bruce

    That works out to these numbers of victories for these pictures:

    8 Wins

    Oppenheimer

    5 Wins

    Poor Things

    2 Wins

    Anatomy of a Fall

    1 Win

    20 Days in Mariupol, All of Us Strangers, How to Have Sex, The Holdovers, Maestro, Napoleon, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

    96th Academy Awards FINAL Nominations Predictions

    Starting about 365 days ago with the Sundance Film Festival, my speculation of the nominees for the 96th Academy Awards kicked off. As it does each year, dozens of predictions posts followed.

    And now… after clues from the Golden Globes, SAG, PGA, DGA, Critics Choice, BAFTA, regional critics groups, and good ole fashioned gut feelings, my FINAL projections are here! They will be out Tuesday and I’ll have a recap up that evening.

    The speculations ends here. With each race, I’m giving you my selections along with a runner-up and a second runner-up. Let’s get to it!

    Best Picture

    American Fiction

    Anatomy of a Fall

    Barbie

    The Holdovers

    Killers of the Flower Moon

    Maestro

    Oppenheimer

    Past Lives

    Poor Things

    The Zone of Interest

    1st Alternate: The Color Purple

    2nd Alternate: Saltburn

    Best Director

    Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest

    Greta Gerwig, Barbie

    Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things

    Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer

    Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon

    1st Alternate: Alexander Payne, The Holdovers

    2nd Alternate: Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall

    Best Actress

    Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon

    Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall

    Carey Mulligan, Maestro

    Margot Robbie, Barbie

    Emma Stone, Poor Things

    1st Alternate: Greta Lee, Past Lives

    2nd Alternate: Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Origin

    Best Actor

    Bradley Cooper, Maestro

    Colman Domingo, Rustin

    Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers

    Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer

    Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction

    1st Alternate: Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon

    2nd Alternate: Barry Keoghan, Saltburn

    Best Supporting Actress

    Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer

    Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple

    Penelope Cruz, Ferrari

    Sandra Hüller, The Zone of Interest

    Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers

    1st Alternate: Jodie Foster, Nyad

    2nd Alternate: Julianne Moore, May December

    Best Supporting Actor

    Sterling K. Brown, American Fiction

    Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon

    Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer

    Ryan Gosling, Barbie

    Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things

    1st Alternate: Willem Dafoe, Poor Things

    2nd Alternate: Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers

    Best Original Screenplay

    Anatomy of a Fall

    The Holdovers

    May December

    Past Lives

    Saltburn

    1st Alternate: Maestro

    2nd Alternate: Air

    Best Adapted Screenplay

    American Fiction

    Barbie

    Killers of the Flower Moon

    Oppenheimer

    Poor Things

    1st Alternate: The Zone of Interest

    2nd Alternate: Origin

    Best International Feature

    Fallen Leaves

    Perfect Days

    Society of the Snow

    Tótem

    The Zone of Interest

    1st Alternate: The Taste of Things

    2nd Alternate: The Teachers’ Lounge

    Best Animated Feature

    The Boy and the Heron

    Elemental

    Nimona

    Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

    Suzume

    1st Alternate: Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem

    2nd Alternate: Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget

    Best Documentary Feature

    20 Days in Mariupol

    Beyond Utopia

    The Eternal Memory

    Four Daughters

    Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie

    1st Alternate: American Symphony

    2nd Alternate: Going to Mars: The Nikki Giovanni Project

    Best Cinematography

    Killers of the Flower Moon

    Maestro

    Oppenheimer

    Poor Things

    The Zone of Interest

    1st Alternate: Barbie

    2nd Alternate: El Conde

    Best Costume Design

    Barbie

    The Color Purple

    Killers of the Flower Moon

    Oppenheimer

    Poor Things

    1st Alternate: Napoleon

    2nd Alternate: Maestro

    Best Film Editing

    Anatomy of a Fall

    The Holdovers

    Killers of the Flower Moon

    Maestro

    Oppenheimer

    1st Alternate: Poor Things

    2nd Alternate: Barbie

    Best Makeup and Hairstyling

    Golda

    Killers of the Flower Moon

    Maestro

    Oppenheimer

    Poor Things

    1st Alternate: Society of the Snow

    2nd Alternate: The Last Voyage of the Demeter

    Best Original Score

    Killers of the Flower Moon

    Oppenheimer

    Poor Things

    Society of the Snow

    The Zone of Interest

    1st Alternate: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

    2nd Alternate: Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny

    Best Original Song

    “The Fire Inside” from Flamin’ Hot

    “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie

    “Road to Freedom” from Rustin

    “Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People)” from Killers of the Flower Moon

    “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie

    1st Alternate: “It Never Went Away” from American Symphony

    2nd Alternate: “Quiet Eyes” from Past Lives

    Best Production Design

    Barbie

    Killers of the Flower Moon

    Napoleon

    Oppenheimer

    Poor Things

    1st Alternate: The Zone of Interest

    2nd Alternate: Asteroid City

    Best Sound

    Ferrari

    Maestro

    Napoleon

    Oppenheimer

    The Zone of Interest

    1st Alternate: Killers of the Flower Moon

    2nd Alternate: Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning

    Best Visual Effects

    The Creator

    Godzilla Minus One

    Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3

    Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny

    Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

    1st Alternate: Poor Things

    2nd Alternate: Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning

    And that means I’m predicting these movies generate these numbers in terms of nominations:

    13 Nominations

    Oppenheimer

    12 Nominations

    Killers of the Flower Moon

    10 Nominations

    Poor Things

    9 Nominations

    Barbie

    7 Nominations

    Maestro, The Zone of Interest

    5 Nominations

    The Holdovers

    4 Nominations

    American Fiction, Anatomy of a Fall

    2 Nominations

    The Color Purple, Ferrari, Napoleon, Past Lives, Rustin, Society of the Snow, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

    1 Nomination

    20 Days in Mariupol, Beyond Utopia, The Boy and the Heron, The Creator, Elemental, The Eternal Memory, Fallen Leaves, Flamin’ Hot, Four Daughters, Godzilla Minus One, Golda, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, May December, Nimona, Perfect Days, Saltburn, Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie, Suzume, Tótem

    77th BAFTA Nominations Reaction

    The BAFTAs, the United Kingdom’s equivalent to the Oscars, unveiled their nominations six days before the Academy has their turn. In short… the BAFTAs always BAFTA. That means there were some baffling omissions in some major competitions that could alter the thinking of prognosticators when it comes to their Oscar forecasts. Then again… the BAFTAs have a history of going their own way that doesn’t necessarily have a connection to what the Academy ultimately decides. I went 85 for 119 in my guesstimates for BAFTA.

    Let’s walk each race one by one with the nominees, how I performed, and some quick thoughts.

    Film

    Nominees: Anatomy of a Fall, The Holdovers, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things

    How I Did: 4/5

    Barbie failed to make the cut with The Holdovers (which had a very impressive morning) sliding in. This is likely Oppenheimer‘s race to lose.

    Director

    Nominees: Bradley Cooper (Maestro), Jonathan Glazer (The Zone of Interest), Andrew Haigh (All of Us Strangers), Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer), Alexander Payne (The Holdovers), Justine Triet (Anatomy of a Fall)

    How I Did: 4/6

    Here’s where the shockers begin. Cooper and Payne are in over Yorgos Lanthimos (Poor Things) and Martin Scorsese (Killers of the Flower Moon). Marty’s exclusion is especially surprising. As with Film – Mr. Nolan is looking strong.

    Actress

    Nominees: Fantasia Barrino (The Color Purple), Sandra Huller (The Zone of Interest), Carey Mulligan (Maestro), Vivian Oparah (Rye Lane), Margot Robbie (Barbie), Emma Stone (Poor Things)

    How I Did: 3/6

    More unforeseen action as Barrino, Oparah, and Robbie (my alternate) appear here instead of Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon), Greta Lee (Past Lives), and Mia McKenna-Bruce (How to Have Sex). In perhaps the story of the day, Gladstone falling off is truly astonishing as she’s been seen by many (including me) as the #1 option for the Oscar in Actress. For BAFTA, Stone might be the smart choice and you can anticipate some writers switching her to the top spot over Gladstone at Oscar.

    Actor

    Nominees: Bradley Cooper (Maestro), Colman Domingo (Rustin), Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers), Barry Keoghan (Saltburn), Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer), Teo Yoo (Past Lives)

    How I Did: 4/6

    Despite no love for Past Lives in the categories above, Teo Yeo is in along with Domingo in place of Leonardo DiCaprio (Killers of the Flower Moon) and Andrew Scott (All of Us Strangers). Scott’s omission at BAFTA, to me, is more unexpected than Leo missing. Murphy might be out front, but Giamatti (especially considering The Holdovers overperformance) is a factor. For that matter, Maestro also had a solid showing and Cooper could get a win here.

    Supporting Actress

    Nominees: Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer), Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple), Claire Foy (All of Us Strangers), Sandra Huller (The Zone of Interest), Rosamund Pike (Saltburn), Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers)

    How I Did: 5/6

    Hüller, who was my alternate pick, is a double nominee. I went with Cara Jade Myers for Flower Moon. Randolph has been sweeping the season thus far and will look to continue that.

    Supporting Actor

    Nominees: Robert De Niro (Killers of the Flower Moon), Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer), Jacob Elordi (Saltburn), Ryan Gosling (Barbie), Paul Mescal (All of Us Strangers), Dominic Sessa (The Holdovers)

    How I Did: 4/6

    Elordi and Sessa in over Anthony Hopkins (One Life) and Mark Ruffalo (Poor Things). It’s worth noting that this is Ruffalo’s second major miss after SAG. Downey Jr. has taken GG and CCA and looks to keep the streak alive.

    Original Screenplay

    Nominees: Anatomy of a Fall, Barbie, The Holdovers, Maestro, Past Lives

    How I Did: 4/5

    Maestro finds a slot over my Saltburn call. Considering how The Holdovers performed, I’d put it out front with Anatomy lurking.

    Adapted Screenplay

    Nominees: All of Us Strangers, American Fiction, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, The Zone of Interest

    How I Did: 4/5

    Now would be a good time to mention that Zone had a fine day despite missing Best Film. It’s in here over Flower Moon in another snub for Scorsese’s epic. This is a tricky race and I’m not ready to declare a frontrunner.

    Casting

    Nominees: All of Us Strangers, Anatomy of a Fall, The Holdovers, How to Have Sex, Killers of the Flower Moon

    How I Did: 2/5

    Since there’s no Oscar competition for this one, it’s always a crapshoot figuring this out and it shows. Anatomy, How to, and Holdovers are named and I picked Barbie, Oppenheimer (a rare category which it missed), and Saltburn.

    Animated Feature

    Nominees: The Boy and the Heron, Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget, Elemental, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

    How I Did: 3/4

    As with all animated derbies for 2023, it’s Heron vs. Spider-Man. The former could have the edge at BAFTA, but either could be victorious. I had Nimona instead of Elemental.

    British Film

    Nominees: All of Us Strangers, How to Have Sex, Napoleon, The Old Oak, Poor Things, Rye Lane, Saltburn, Scrapper, Wonka, The Zone of Interest

    How I Did: 9/10

    My alt Oak makes the ten over One Life. Maybe Poor Things gets this since it’s the only Best Film entry. However, I wouldn’t discount Strangers or Zone.

    Debut by a British Writer, Director, or Producer

    Nominees: Blue Bag Life, Bobi Wine: The People’s President, Earth Mama, How to Have Sex, Is There Anybody Out There?

    How I Did: 1/5

    Ouch. Only got How to Have Sex listed correctly so I guess I’ll say it wins (especially considering its impressive performance elsewhere). I wrongly had The End We Start From, Police Society, Rye Lane, and Scrapper.

    Film Not in the English Language

    Nominees: 20 Days in Mariupol, Anatomy of a Fall, Past Lives, Society of the Snow, The Zone of Interest

    How I Did: 3/5

    Mariupol and Snow over The Boy and the Heron and Fallen Leaves. Anatomy is probably a slight favorite over Zone.

    Documentary

    Nominees: 20 Days in Mariupol, American Symphony, Beyond Utopia, Still: A Michael J. Fox, Wham!

    How I Did: 5/5 (!)

    I’ll admit I didn’t think this would be one of my 2 perfect calls. Considering its inclusion in the international race, Mariupol is a decent bet for the trophy.

    Cinematography

    Nominees: Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, The Zone of Interest

    How I Did 4/5

    Maestro over Saltburn. Think Oppenheimer.

    Costume Design

    Nominees: Barbie, Killers of the Flower Moon, Napoleon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things

    How I Did: 4/5

    Killers over Wonka. Think Barbie or Poor Things.

    Editing

    Nominees: Anatomy of a Fall, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, The Zone of Interest

    How I Did: 5/5 (!)

    This is Oppenheimer.

    Makeup and Hair

    Nominees: Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Napoleon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things

    How I Did: 3/5

    Barbie and Priscilla are no-shows while Killers and Napoleon materialize. This should be Maestro.

    Original Score

    Nominees: Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, Saltburn, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

    How I Did: 4/5

    My alt Saltburn in over Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (which missed both races I projected it in). Think Oppenheimer.

    Production Design

    Nominees: Barbie, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, The Zone of Interest

    How I Did: 4/5

    My alt Zone in over Napoleon. This should be Barbie or Poor Things.

    Sound

    Nominees: Ferrari, Maestro, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One, Oppenheimer, The Zone of Interest

    How I Did: 4/5

    Mission over Napoleon. Bank on an Oppenheimer win.

    Special Visual Effects

    Nominees: The Creator, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One, Napoleon, Poor Things

    How I Did: 2/5

    Ouch on this one. We know now that Oppenheimer will not be a nominee in VE for BAFTA or Oscar. Indiana Jones, Oppenheimer, and Spider-Man out in favor of my alt Guardians, Mission, and Napoleon. Your guess is as good as mine, but maybe Creator or Poor Things is the pick.

    That all works out to these movies contending for these numbers of BAFTAs:

    13 Noininations

    Oppenheimer

    11 Nominations

    Poor Things

    10 Nominations

    The Zone of Interest

    9 Nominations

    Killers of the Flower Moon

    7 Nominations

    The Holdovers, Maestro

    6 Nominations

    All of Us Strangers, Anatomy of a Fall

    5 Nominations

    Barbie, Saltburn

    4 Nominations

    Napoleon

    3 Nominations

    How to Have Sex, Past Lives

    2 Nominations

    20 Days in Mariupol, The Color Purple, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One, Rye Lane, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

    1 Nomination

    American Fiction, American Symphony, Beyond Utopia, Blue Bag Life, Bobi Wine: The People’s President, The Boy and the Heron, Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget, The Creator, Earth Mama, Elemental, Ferrari, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Is There Anybody Out There?, The Old Oak, Rustin, Scrapper, Society of the Snow, Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie, Wham!, Wonka

    I’ll have winner predictions up for shortly before the BAFTA ceremony on Sunday, February 18th.

    29th Critics Choice Awards Reaction

    Last Sunday, the Golden Globes were more the Oppenheimer show than a Barbenheimer love fest. One week later, the 29th Critics Choice Awards was more of a celebration for 2023’s acclaimed blockbusters that will forever be linked. Both managed to win in races I didn’t pick them in. Yet they arguably came up short in competitions where they were anticipated to emerge victorious. In addition to the impressive hardware picked up by the aforementioned pics, it was a pleasing night for The Holdovers. As for Killers of the Flower Moon or Maestro… not so much.

    Barbenheimer accounted for 14 of the 21 wins this evening. That would be Oppenheimer with 8 and Barbie with 6. As for this blogger, I went 15 for 21 in my selections.

    As anticipated, Oppenheimer is your Best Picture with Christopher Nolan as Best Director (just like the Globes). Same goes for Robert Downey Jr. in Supporting Actor as he’s established himself as the favorite for Oscar. It also won Acting Ensemble and I had Barbie taking that instead. The other four trophies: Cinematography, Editing, Score, and Visual Effects. For VE, Oppenheimer shockingly missed the shortlist for the Oscars. I picked Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse for Critics Choice (it did win Animated Feature as projected). Simply put, Oppenheimer is very well positioned for Oscar’s big prize.

    Moving onto Barbie, it took home Original Screenplay. As you may be aware, it is slotted in Adapted Screenplay at the Academy Awards. Greta Gerwig’s phenomenon also won Comedy, Costume Design, Hair and Makeup (in a surprise win over the favored Maestro), Production Design, and Song. In another slight shock, “I’m Just Ken” was the honored tune over “What Was Made I For?”.

    As for The Holdovers, all three prominent performers in the cast went home with an engraved reminder of their attendance. Paul Giamatti is Best Actor and I picked him in a coin flip over Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer). It sets up a real race for that leading derby. Da’Vine Joy Randolph continued to solidify her dominance in Supporting Actress while Dominic Sessa is your Young Actor/Actress recipient.

    We also have some drama in Best Actress. Emma Stone’s work in Poor Things won out over Globe victor Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon). I got that wrong and it contributed to a night where Killers came up 0 for 12.

    In other races: Adapted Screenplay went to American Fiction. I thought it would be Killers and this competition at the Oscars (where Barbie, Oppenheimer, and Poor Things should also be in the mix) is unpredictable.

    Anatomy of a Fall, while not in contention for International Feature Film at the Oscars, is the Foreign Language Film selection (Globes went with it too). That’s one more award to help its chance of making the ten BP nominees.

    My main takeaway: Oppenheimer, Nolan, Downey Jr., and Randolph might be sweeping. Best Actor and Actress look more competitive. For the former, it’s Giamatti vs. Murphy (with Bradley Cooper in Maestro still a potential spoiler). In Actress, it’s Gladstone vs. Stone.

    Keep an eye on the blog for my final Oscar predictions later this week!

    96th Academy Awards Predictions: January 13th Edition

    Since my last predictions on January 6th, we’ve had a whole lotta activity with Oscar precursors. The Golden Globes aired and bestowed their Best Drama to Oppenheimer and Musical/Comedy to Poor Things (over Barbie). SAG released their nominees with some surprising omissions including Leonardo DiCaprio (Killers of the Flower Moon), Mark Ruffalo (Poor Things), and Charles Melton (May December).

    And in perhaps the most unexpected development of all, the PGA Picture nominees included two international features with Anatomy of a Fall and The Zone of Interest. PGA typically doesn’t honor foreign pics. The 10 movies they ended up nominating have been my Oscar BP ten for weeks. It’s a little scary to predict that the Academy and PGA will match 10/10… but here we are for now.

    In Best Actor, Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer) and Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers) each rise a spot to 1-2 with Bradley Cooper (Maestro) sliding from first to third. In Supporting Actor, Sterling K. Brown (American Fiction) enters the predicted quintet with Charles Melton (May December) on the outs.

    An important note: this is my penultimate forecast for the 96th Academy Awards. My plan is to have final predictions up on Friday or Saturday next week before nomination morning on January 23rd.

    Picture

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Oppenheimer (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

    2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (+1)

    3. Barbie (PR: 2) (-1)

    4. Poor Things (PR: 4) (E)

    5. The Holdovers (PR: 5) (E)

    6. Past Lives (PR: 6) (E)

    7. American Fiction (PR: 9) (+2)

    8. The Zone of Interest (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Maestro (PR: 7) (-2)

    10. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 10) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    11. The Color Purple (PR: 11) (E)

    12. May December (PR: 12) (E)

    13. Air (PR: 15) (+2)

    14. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 14) (E)

    15. Saltburn (PR: 13) (-2)

    Director

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 7) (+1)

    7. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Cord Jefferson, American Fiction (PR: 10) (+1)

    10. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 9) (-1)

    Actress

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4) (+1)

    4. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 8) (+1)

    8. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 7) (-1)

    9. Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla (PR: 9) (E)

    10. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 10) (E)

    Actor

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (+1)

    2. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 3) (+1)

    3. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 1) (-2)

    4. Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction (PR: 5) (+1)

    5. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 4) (-1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Barry Keoghan, Saltburn (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Zac Efron, The Iron Claw (PR: 10) (+1)

    10. Teo Yoo, Past Lives (PR: 9) (-1)

    Supporting Actress

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Sandra Hüller, The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (+1)

    5. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 4) (-1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Penelope Cruz, Ferrari (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Rachel McAdams, Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret (PR: 9) (+1)

    9. America Ferrera, Barbie (PR: 10) (+1)

    10. Rosamund Pike, Saltburn (PR: 8) (-2)

    Supporting Actor

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Robert Downey, Jr., Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 5) (+2)

    4. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. Sterling K. Brown, American Fiction (PR: 7) (+2)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 4) (-3)

    8. Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers (PR: 8) (E)

    9. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 9) (E)

    10. Glenn Howerton, BlackBerry (PR: 10) (E)

    Original Screenplay

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. The Holdovers (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 3) (+1)

    3. Past Lives (PR: 2) (-1)

    4. May December (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Air (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Maestro (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Saltburn (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Asteroid City (PR: 8) (E)

    9. The Iron Claw (PR: 9) (E)

    10. Fair Play (PR: 10) (E)

    Adapted Screenplay

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Poor Things (PR: 4) (E)

    5. American Fiction (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. The Zone of Interest (PR: 7) (+1)

    7. All of Us Strangers (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 9) (E)

    10. The Taste of Things (PR: 10) (E)

    International Feature Film

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. The Zone of Interest (PR: 1) (E)

    2. The Taste of Things (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Perfect Days (PR: 5) (+2)

    4. Society of the Snow (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. The Teachers’ Lounge (PR: 6) (+1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Fallen Leaves (PR: 4) (-2)

    7. Tótem (PR: 7) (E)

    8. 20 Days in Mariupol (PR: 9) (+1)

    9. Four Daughters (PR: 10) (+1)

    10. Io Capitano (PR: 8) (-2)

    Animated Feature

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 1) (E)

    2. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Elemental (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Nimona (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem (PR: 6) (+1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Suzume (PR: 5) (-1)

    7. The Peasants (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Wish (PR: 8) (E)

    9. The Super Mario Bros. Movie (PR: 10) (+1)

    10. Robot Dreams (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget

    Documentary Feature

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. 20 Days in Mariupol (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Beyond Utopia (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Four Daughters (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie (PR: 6) (+2)

    5. Going to Mars: The Nikki Giovanni Project (PR: 7) (+2)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. The Eternal Memory (PR: 5) (-1)

    7. American Symphony (PR: 4) (-3)

    8. A Still Small Voice (PR: 10) (+2)

    9. Bobi Wine: The People’s President (PR: 9) (E)

    10. Stamped from the Beginning (PR: 8) (-2)

    Cinematography

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Poor Things (PR:3) (E)

    4. The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (+1)

    5. El Conde (PR: Not Ranked)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Maestro (PR: 4) (-2)

    7. Barbie (PR: 8) (+1)

    8. The Color Purple (PR: 7) (-1)

    9. Saltburn (PR: 6) (-3)

    10. Napoleon (PR: 9) (-1)

    Dropped Out:

    Ferrari

    Costume Design

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Napoleon (PR: 4) (E)

    5. The Color Purple (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Oppenheimer (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Maestro (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Wonka (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Priscilla (PR: 9) (E)

    10. Chevalier (PR: 10) (E)

    Film Editing

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Barbie (PR: 4) (E)

    5. The Holdovers (PR: 6) (+1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 5) (-1)

    7. The Zone of Interest (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Maestro (PR: 9) (+1)

    9. Air (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. Past Lives (PR: 10) (E)

    Makeup and Hairstyling

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Maestro (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Golda (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Society of the Snow (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Beau Is Afraid (PR: 8) (+2)

    7. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. The Last Voyage of the Demeter (PR: 7) (-1)

    9. Ferrari (PR: 10) (+1)

    10. Napoleon (PR: 9) (-1)

    Original Score

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)

    4. The Zone of Interest (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Society of the Snow (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Elemental (PR: 7) (E)

    8. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 10) (+2)

    9. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (PR: 9) (E)

    10. Barbie (PR: 8) (-2)

    Original Song

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie (PR: 1) (E)

    2. “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie (PR: 2) (E)

    3. “Road to Freedom” from Rustin (PR: 3) (E)

    4. “The Fire Inside” from Flamin’ Hot (PR: 4) (E)

    5. “Quiet Eyes” from Past Lives (PR: 9) (+4)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. “It Never Went Away” from American Symphony (PR: 5) (-1)

    7. “Can’t Catch Me Now” from The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. “Keep It Movin” from The Color Purple (PR: 8) (E)

    9. “Dear Alien (Who Art in Heaven)” from Asteroid City (PR: 10) (+1)

    10. “Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People)” from Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 7) (-3)

    Production Design

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Oppenheimer (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Napoleon (PR: 9) (+4)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Asteroid City (PR: 7) (+1)

    7. The Zone of Interest (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. Maestro (PR: 5) (-3)

    9. The Color Purple (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. Saltburn (PR: 10) (E)

    Sound

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Maestro (PR: 2) (E)

    3. The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (+2)

    4. Ferrari (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 6) (+1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Napoleon (PR: 4) (-2)

    7. Barbie (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One (PR: 8) (E)

    9. The Killer (PR: 9) (E)

    10. The Creator (PR: 10) (E)

    Visual Effects

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Godzilla Minus One (PR: 4) (+3)

    2. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 2) (E)

    3. The Creator (PR: 1) (-2)

    4. Poor Things (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One (PR: 9) (+4)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Society of the Snow (PR: 7) (+1)

    7. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 5) (-3)

    9. Rebel Moon – Part One: A Child of Fire (PR: 10) (+1)

    10. Napoleon (PR: 8) (-2)

    That means I’m forecasting these numbers of nominations for these films:

    12 Nominations

    Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things

    9 Nominations

    Barbie

    7 Nominations

    The Zone of Interest

    5 Nominations

    The Holdovers, Maestro

    4 Nominations

    American Fiction, Past Lives

    3 Nominations

    Anatomy of a Fall

    2 Nominations

    The Color Purple, May December, Napoleon, Society of the Snow, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

    1 Nomination

    20 Days in Mariupol, Air, Beyond Utopia, The Boy and the Heron, The Creator, El Conde, Elemental, Ferrari, Flamin’ Hot, Four Daughters, Godzilla Minus One, Going to Mars: The Nikki Giovanni Project, Golda, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One, Nimona, Perfect Days, Rustin, Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie, The Taste of Things, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem

    29th Critics Choice Awards Predictions

    On Sunday evening, the 29th Critics Choice Awards air on the CW with Chelsea Handler handling hosting duties. In the busiest Oscar precursor week of the year, it’ll cap off with this ceremony. Critics Choice has a mixed history matching with the Academy. Five of the last ten CC Picture victors won BP at the Oscars. For Actress – it’s 6 out of 10. Actor is 7 out of 10. Supporting Actress is 8 out of 10 and Supporting Actor is the most at 9 for 10.

    Let’s go through each competition and I’ll give a winner and runner-up prediction. You can expect a recap of the show Sunday evening!

    Picture

    Nominees: American Fiction, Barbie, The Color Purple, The Holdovers, Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Past Lives, Poor Things, Saltburn

    PREDICTED WINNER: Oppenheimer

    Runner-Up: Barbie

    Director

    Nominees: Bradley Cooper (Maestro), Greta Gerwig (Barbie), Yorgos Lanthimos (Poor Things), Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer), Alexander Payne (The Holdovers), Martin Scorsese (Killers of the Flower Moon)

    PREDICTED WINNER: Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer

    Runner-Up: Greta Gerwig, Barbie

    Actress

    Nominees: Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon), Sandra Hüller (Anatomy of a Fall), Greta Lee (Past Lives), Carey Mulligan (Maestro), Margot Robbie (Barbie), Emma Stone (Poor Things)

    PREDICTED WINNER: Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon

    Runner-Up: Emma Stone, Poor Things

    Actor

    Nominees: Bradley Cooper (Maestro), Leonardo DiCaprio (Killers of the Flower Moon), Colman Domingo (Rustin), Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers), Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer), Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction)

    PREDICTED WINNER: Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers

    Runner-Up: Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer

    Supporting Actress

    Nominees: Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer), Danielle Brooks (The Holdovers), America Ferrera (Barbie), Jodie Foster (Nyad), Julianne Moore (May December), Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers)

    PREDICTED WINNER: Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers

    Runner-Up: Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple

    Supporting Actor

    Nominees: Sterling K. Brown (American Fiction), Robert De Niro (Killers of the Flower Moon), Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer), Ryan Gosling (Barbie), Charles Melton (May December), Mark Ruffalo (Poor Things)

    PREDICTED WINNER: Robert Downey, Jr., Oppenheimer

    Runner-Up: Ryan Gosling, Barbie

    Original Screenplay

    Nominees: Air, Barbie, The Holdovers, Maestro, May December, Past Lives

    PREDICTED WINNER: Barbie

    Runner-Up: The Holdovers

    Adapted Screenplay

    Nominees: All of Us Strangers, American Fiction, Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things

    PREDICTED WINNER: Poor Things

    Runner-Up: Killers of the Flower Moon

    Acting Ensemble

    Nominees: Air, Barbie, The Color Purple, The Holdovers, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer

    PREDICTED WINNER: Barbie

    Runner-Up: Oppenheimer

    Young Actor/Actress

    Nominees: Abby Ryder Fortson (Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret), Ariana Greenblatt (Barbie), Calah Lane (Wonka), Milo Machado Graner (Anatomy of a Fall), Dominic Sessa (The Holdovers), Madeleine Yuna Voyles (The Creator)

    PREDICTED WINNER: Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers

    Runner-Up: Milo Machado Graner, Anatomy of a Fall

    Foreign Language Film

    Nominees: Anatomy of a Fall, Godzilla Minus One, Perfect Days, Society of the Snow, The Taste of Things, The Zone of Interest

    PREDICTED WINNER: Anatomy of a Fall

    Runner-Up: The Zone of Interest

    Comedy

    Nominees: American Fiction, Barbie, Bottoms, The Holdovers, No Hard Feelings, Poor Things

    PREDICTED WINNER: Barbie

    Runner-Up: American Fiction

    Animated Feature

    Nominees: The Boy and the Heron, Elemental, Nimona, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem, Wish

    PREDICTED WINNER: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

    Runner-Up: The Boy and the Heron

    Cinematography

    Nominees: Barbie, Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, Saltburn

    PREDICTED WINNER: Oppenheimer

    Runner-Up: Killers of the Flower Moon

    Costume Design

    Nominees: Barbie, The Color Purple, Killers of the Flower Moon, Napoleon, Poor Things, Wonka

    PREDICTED WINNER: Barbie

    Runner-Up: Poor Things

    Editing

    Nominees: Air, Barbie, Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Poor Things

    PREDICTED WINNER: Oppenheimer

    Runner-Up: Killers of the Flower Moon

    Hair and Makeup

    Nominees: Barbie, The Color Purple, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, Priscilla

    PREDICTED WINNER: Maestro

    Runner-Up: Poor Things

    Production Design

    Nominees: Asteroid City, Barbie, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, Saltburn

    PREDICTED WINNER: Barbie

    Runner-Up: Poor Things

    Score

    Nominees: Barbie, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, Society of the Snow, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

    PREDICTED WINNER: Oppenheimer

    Runner-Up: Killers of the Flower Moon

    Song

    Nominees: “Dance the Night” from Barbie, “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie, “Peaches” from The Super Mario Bros. Movie, “Road to Freedom” from Rustin, “This Wish” from Wish, “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie

    PREDICTED WINNER: “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie

    Runner-Up: “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie

    Visual Effects

    Nominees: The Creator, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

    PREDICTED WINNER: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

    Runner-Up: Oppenheimer

    That works out to the following wins for these movies:

    6 Wins

    Barbie, Oppenheimer

    3 Wins

    The Holdovers

    2 Wins

    Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

    1 Win

    Anatomy of a Fall, Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Poor Things