Arriving 64 years after its beloved predecessor and with the same awards buzz, Disney unveils MaryPoppinsReturns on Wednesday next week. The musical fantasy casts Emily Blunt in the role made famous by Julie Andrews, who won an Oscar as the iconic nanny. Blunt is expected to get a nod as well. Rob Marshall, the man behind 2002 Best Picture winner Chicago and most recently IntotheWoods, directs. Lin-Manuel Miranda, Ben Whishaw, Emily Mortimer, Angela Lansbury, Julie Walters, Colin Firth, and Meryl Streep are included in the supporting cast. So is Dick Van Dyke, as an offspring of the role he played in the original.
Though official reviews aren’t out yet, buzz from screenings has been glowing and it’s already popped up on numerous top ten lists and major Academy precursors. The Mouse Factory marketing machine is second to none and anticipation is high. Furthermore, Poppins gets a two-day jump on its Christmas weekend competition, most notably Aquaman and Bumblebee.
It’s worthy of note that many holiday offerings greatly expand their grosses on subsequent weekends and aren’t nearly as front loaded as summer pics. That is probable here as I expect Poppins to experience a long and robust run.
The Wednesday debut probably means it’ll come in second to Aquaman, which opens Friday. I have a strong hunch you’ll see at #1 eventually. One fair comp is last year’s Jumanji: WelcometotheJungle. It also came out on Wednesday, taking in $36 million for the traditional weekend frame and $52 million when factoring the extra two days. The key number? It legged out to $404 million domestically.
I am counting on a similar track here and estimating it manages to fly a bit higher. I’ll say this reaches low to mid 40s from Friday to Sunday and get mid 60s with Wednesday and Thursday accounted for.
MaryPoppinsReturns opening weekend prediction: $45.8 million (Friday to Sunday); $65.2 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
An onslaught of holiday offerings begin this weekend as a trio of newbies swing into multiplexes. They’re likely to populate the top 3 spots and give a jolt to a typically sleepy post Thanksgiving box office frame. We have the critically acclaimed animated Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse, Clint Eastwood’s true-life dramatic thriller The Mule, and Peter Jackson penned dystopian adventure Mortal Engines. You can peruse my detailed individual prediction posts on them here:
Just as all six Spidey features have debuted at #1 over the past decade and a half plus, so shall Spider-Verse. It should do so rather easily with an estimated take in the upper 40s.
I do believe enough Eastwood fans will turn out for The Mule to be #2. It hopes to play well throughout the holiday season with adult moviegoers.
With a reported $100 million budget, Mortal Engines is shaping up to be a costly flop, though it should still manage a third place showing.
The rest of the top five should be some family leftovers and I’ll predict The Grinch manages to outdo Ralph Breaks the Internet, which has held the top spot for the past three weeks.
I also need to mention Once Upon a Deadpool, which premieres this Wednesday. As you may have read, this is a PG-13 version of this summer’s Deadpool 2 with 20 minutes of new footage. It’s slated to open on approximately 500 screens and I haven’t done an individual prediction post for it. It’s a real mystery as to how it performs, but I certainly don’t believe it will be in the top five. This could fluctuate for sure – but I’ll say it makes $4.2 million from Friday to Sunday.
And with that, my top 5 predictions for the weekend ahead:
1. Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
Predicted Gross: $48.4 million
2. The Mule
Predicted Gross: $17.6 million
3. Mortal Engines
Predicted Gross: $13.4 million
4. The Grinch
Predicted Gross: $10.5 million
5. Ralph Breaks the Internet
Predicted Gross: $9.7 million
Box Office Results (December 7-9)
It was expected to be a quiet weekend with no new wide releases out. It certainly was as Ralph Breaks the Internet topped the charts for the third time with $16.2 million, in line with my $16.7 million estimate. The Disney sequel has amassed $140 million so far. This was only the third weekend of 2018 where the #1 pic didn’t reach $20 million and it’s certain to be the last.
The Grinch was second with $15 million (I said $14.2 million) for an overall tally of $223 million.
Creed II was third at $9.9 million – right there with my $10.1 million prediction. It’s approaching the century mark at $96 million in three weeks.
Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald made $6.9 million for fourth (I said $6.2 million). The wizarding world sequel’s gross is at $145 million.
Bohemian Rhapsody rounded out the top five with $6.1 million (I projected $5.9 million) for $173 million. $200 million could be in its sights if it continues to hold well.
The high budgeted dystopian adventure MortalEngines hopes to bring in viewers next weekend based mostly on its connections to the LordoftheRings franchise. Peter Jackson, Fran Walsh, and Philippa Boyens share writing duties, just as they did on that blockbuster franchise. Unlike that series, Mr. Jackson is not directing as protegé Christian Rivers makes his feature-length debut. There’s no big stars in a cast that includes Hugo Weaving, Hera Hilmar, Robert Sheehan, Jihae, and Stephen Lang.
Even with its well-known talent behind the camera, Engines faces an uphill battle for attention. Reviews aren’t so hot with a current rating of 36% on Rotten Tomatoes. It could get lost in the glut of holiday titles and faces demographic competition from Spider–Man: IntotheSpider–Verse, which opens directly against it.
With those challenges, I’m predicting the reported $100 million dollar effort will stall out of the gate. That means low teens and the likelihood it won’t hold well in subsequent weekends.
MortalEngines opening weekend prediction: $13.4 million
For my Spider–Man: IntotheSpider–Verse prediction, click here:
Clint Eastwood has been consistently behind the camera and offering about a movie a year for quite some time. His appearances in front of it have been far less frequent in recent years. That changes next weekend when the Oscar winner directs himself in The Mule. The pic is a true life crime tale with Eastwood as a World War II vet who becomes a courier for Mexican drug cartels. Bradley Cooper, Laurence Fishburne, Michael Pena, Dianne Wiest, and Andy Garcia are among the supporting cast.
As mentioned, we haven’t seen its star in a film since 2012’s Trouble with the Curve. He hasn’t directed himself since 2008’s blockbuster Gran Torino. Adult moviegoers will be targeted here and Eastwood’s involvement could do the trick. Whether or not it opens on a large-scale or plays well throughout the holiday weeks ahead is a little uncertain. That might depend on its reviews, which aren’t out yet.
If The Mule manages to top $18 million out of the gate, it would actually be Clint’s largest debut of a feature he’s acted in (the current record is held by 2000’s Space Cowboys). While the wide release of Torino generated nearly $30 million, it was released in limited fashion for a few weeks prior.
That’s not out of the realm of possibility, but I’ll project it falls just short of that as it hopes to leg out nicely in the weeks ahead.
The Mule opening prediction: $17.6 million
For my Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse prediction, click here:
An iconic superhero swings into theaters in yet another iteration next Friday when Spider–Man: IntotheSpider–Verse debuts. This time around, the friendly neighborhood character is animated in a world where multiple individuals can don the spandex. Phil Lord (part of the team behind TheLegoMovie) shares writing credit along with co-director Peter Ramsey. Shameik Moore and Jake Johnson both provide voice work for Spidey. Other actors behind the mic include Hailee Steinfeld, Mahershala Ali, Liev Schreiber, Brian Tyree Henry, and Lily Tomlin.
Sony Pictures certainly has reviews on their side as this stands at 100% on Rotten Tomatoes. Some critics even claim it’s the overall best of the series (this is now the seventh stand-alone entry focused on the Marvel web slinger). It appears destined for an Oscar nod in Best Animated Feature.
I believe the raves and familiarity with its title character should propel this to pleasing returns. With projections in the $30-$40 million range, I’m estimating Spider–Verse will premiere on the high-end of that spectrum and likely top it.
Spider–Man: IntotheSpider–Verse opening weekend prediction: $48.4 million
Before an onslaught of holiday titles enter the marketplace, it looks to be a sleepy weekend at the box office as no wide releases open. That means November leftovers should continue to populate the top five.
I don’t see the rankings from the past frame changing with Ralph Breaks the Internet slated for a three-peat. While the post Thanksgiving weekend often sees large drops, that should ease a bit here with most titles dropping in the 30s.
Truth be told, it’s a lackluster weekend before nearly a dozen Christmas offerings arrive in the two weeks following.
Here’s my take on the top 5:
1. Ralph Breaks the Internet
Predicted Gross: $16.7 million
2. The Grinch
Predicted Gross: $14.2 million
3. Creed II
Predicted Gross: $10.1 million
4. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald
Predicted Gross: $6.2 million
5. Bohemian Rhapsody
Predicted Gross: $5.9 million
Box Office Results (November 30-December 2)
Ralph Breaks the Internet easily ruled the roost for the second weekend in a row as nearly all titles dipped a tad below my projections. The Disney sequel made $25.5 million (I was higher at $28.7 million) for a two-week tally of $119 million.
The Grinch was second with $17.9 million (I said $20 million) as it crossed the double century mark with $203 million.
Creed II placed third in its sophomore outing with $16.6 million compared to my $18.2 million estimate. Total gross is $80 million.
Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald was in fourth position at $11.3 million (I said $12.1 million) for $134 million overall.
Bohemian Rhapsody got the five-spot with $8 million, in line with my $7.8 million prediction. The Freddie Mercury biopic is up to $164 million.
Instant Family was sixth with $7.1 million (I said $7.9 million) for earnings of $45 million.
Finally, horror fans propelled low-budget The Possession of Hannah Grace to a better than anticipated showing in seventh with $6.4 million, doubling my $3.2 million forecast.
As is traditionally the case, the post Thanksgiving weekend should be a quiet one for new releases as audiences should continue to feast on leftovers. The only newcomer is horror pic The Possession of Hannah Grace and you can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:
I’m not expecting much from Possession with my meager $3.2 million forecast. That would leave it outside the top 5 and most likely in the bottom rungs of the top 10. That means the top half of the top 10 is likely to stay the same – with some potential flip flopping occurring.
Ralph Breaks the Internet may lose close to half its audience in its sophomore outing and that would easily place it first once again with a gross in the high 20s. That drop would put it in line with the post Thanksgiving sophomore frames of Frozen, Moana, and Coco – all Disney titles that debuted over the long holiday.
The battle for #2 could be a little more interesting. In 2015, Creed dipped 49% in its second weekend (which also was a post holiday one) and I think this will roughly follow suit. If that occurs, I expect The Grinch will continue its smallish declines as we move closer to Christmas. That could allow the surly green guy to move into the runner-up position.
In 2016, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them plummeted a steep 59% in its third weekend and sequel The Crimes of Grindelwald could be facing the same fate. That said, remaining in fourth place shouldn’t be a problem.
For the #5 slot, I believe Instant Family could manage to jump Bohemian Rhapsody by a razor-thin margin as it looks to have a minor dip compared to other pics.
And with that, my top 6 projections for the weekend upon us:
1. Ralph Breaks the Internet
Predicted Gross: $28.7 million
2. The Grinch
Predicted Gross: $20 million
3. Creed II
Predicted Gross: $18.2 million
4. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindewald
Predicted Gross: $12.1 million
5. Instant Family
Predicted Gross: $7.9 million
6. Bohemian Rhapsody
Predicted Gross: $7.8 million
Box Office Results (November 23-25)
Ralph Breaks the Internet, as expected, ruled the Turkey Day frame with $56.2 million for its Friday to Sunday haul and $84.7 million from Wednesday to Sunday. The Disney sequel managed to surpass my respective estimates of $54.4 million and $79.8 million. As mentioned, this should have no trouble being #1 at the box office for probably the next two weekends.
Creed II also opened with highly impressive results in second with the largest live-action Thanksgiving debut of all time. The boxing sequel made $35.5 million over the traditional weekend and $56 million for the five-day gross. This was above my respective projections of $31.4 million and $45.3 million. Opening larger than its predecessor, it appears poised to top the $109 million overall gross of 2015’s Creed.
The Grinch was third with $30.3 million (I was right there at $30.1 million) to brings its three-week total to an opposite of grumpy $180 million.
Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald went from first to fourth with $29.3 million (I went higher with $34.8 million). It’s taken in $116 million thus far and should come in well under the $234 million made by its predecessor.
Bohemian Rhapsody was fifth with $14 million (I said $14.1 million) for $152 million overall.
Instant Family held up nicely after a so-so debut in sixth with $12.3 million (I said $12.7 million). The Mark Wahlberg/Rose Byrne dramedy eased just 15% to bring its two-week tally to $35 million. I expect this to continue to play well into the holiday season.
It was bad news for Lionsgate as the latest Robin Hood reboot (with a reported $100 million price tag) was DOA in seventh with $9.1 million for the three-day and $14,2 million for the five-day. That’s on the mark with my $9.7 million and $14.1 million take on it. Expect this to fade fast.
Widows was 8th in its sophomore frame with $8.2 million, shy of my $9.5 million estimate for $25 million total.
Green Book expanded nationwide with middling results in ninth place with $5.5 million over Friday to Sunday and $7.4 million for the five-day. It did get over my predictions of $4.5 million and $7.4 million. Its studio will cross their fingers that the A+ Cinemascore grade allows it to have sturdy legs.
A Star Is Born was 10th with $3 million (I went with $4 million) and it’s nearing double century territory with $191 million.