Unless I’m vastly underestimating the number of toddlers clamoring for George Orwell adaptations, Animal Farm could face a tough road when it opens May 1st. Based on the author’s 1945 dystopian fable, Andy Serkis directs the animated treatment with an all-star voice cast. That includes Seth Rogen, Gaten Matatrazzo, Kieran Culkin, Glenn Close, Laverne Cox, Steve Buscemi, Woody Harrelson, Jim Parsons, Kathleen Turner, Iman Vellani, and Serkis himself voicing multiple parts.
Precious dollars might be hard to secure. Angel Studios is handling distribution duties and their marketing footprint appears light. Buzz is also quiet and the mostly mediocre reviews (36% Rotten Tomatoes, 40 Metacritic) should give parents pause to take the kiddos. Add all that up and this Farm might yielded a return in the low single digits.
Animal Farm opening weekend prediction: $2.7 million
For my The Devil Wears Prada 2 prediction, click here:
After a South by Southwest premiere that yielded positive word-of-mouth, Damian McCarthy’s Hokum is out May 1st. The Irish set haunted house tale features Adam Scott, better known for his TV work in Parks and Recreation and Succession. Costars include Peter Coonan, David Wilmot, Florence Ordesh, and Austin Amelio.
The Neon distributed effort truly has critics on its side with a 97% Rotten Tomatoes rating and a 79 Metacritic. The awareness factor, however, for this scary movie appears low. A best case scenario could be an overperformance in the higher single digits, but I’m skeptical. A low bar could be an opening similar to Presence, another Neon fright fest from last year. It made $3.3 million for its start. I’ll give Hokum a bit more.
Hokum opening weekend prediction: $4.2 million
For my The Devil Wears Prada 2 prediction, click here:
Arriving two decades after its predecessor on May 1st is the fashion dramedy The Devil Wears Prada 2. It will bank on riding a nostalgic wave and large female audience. David Frankel is back in the director’s seat with returning stars Meryl Streep, Anne Hathaway, Emily Blunt, and Stanley Tucci alongside series newbies Justin Theroux and Kenneth Branagh (and a number of cameos).
In the summer of 2006, the first Prada was a solid counter programing performer. Opening to $27.5 million, it legged out impressively to a $124 million domestic haul. Most importantly, it has stuck around in the cultural zeitgeist over the past 20 years.
This truly appears to be an example where the sequel will outdo the original. Marketing has been heavy and the dawn of May indicates supreme confidence from 20th Century Studios. For Streep, it should blow away her best ever debut held by Mamma Mia! ($27.6 million) with the OG Devil right behind it. I believe this could triple (or more) what part one achieved (not adjusted for inflation) during its launch.
The Devil Wears Prada 2 opening weekend prediction: $86.5 million
Michael looks to set records for its genre just as its title subject set records in the music business decades ago. Antoine Fuqua’s look at Michael Jackson’s life is the primary wide release this weekend and you can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:
As outlined in that post, Michael looks to surpass the $60 million mark that Straight Outta Compton set for best ever in the musical biopic field. I am projecting it will do so with plenty of room to spare in the low-80s. If it hits that figure, it will certainly stand a good shot at surpassing the $216 million that Bohemian Rhapsody made back in 2018. If and when it achieves a gross beyond that number, it’ll set the high mark overall domestically in the genre. There is some concern that subpar reviews might be a hindrance, but I’m still banking on a wide audience turnout.
The emergence of the King of Pop will cause The Super Mario Galaxy Movie and Project Hail Mary to drop spots after being 1-2 for the last three weekends. Lee Cronin’s The Mummy should see the biggest percentage drop of holdovers are an unimpressive start (more on that below) with The Drama rounding out the top five.
I will note that Mother Mary with Anne Hathaway could pop into the high five with a planned expansion. However, I’ve yet to see a theater count following a limited release on the coasts so I’m not placing it there.
Here’s how I envision it all shaking out:
1. Michael
Predicted Gross: $81 million
2. The Super Mario Galaxy Movie
Predicted Gross: $19.9 million
3. Project Hail Mary
Predicted Gross: $15.3 million
4. Lee Cronin’s The Mummy
Predicted Gross: $4.4 million
5. The Drama
Predicted Gross: $2.8 million
Box Office Results (April 17-19)
The Super Mario Galaxy Movie ruled the charts once again in its third frame with $36.4 million, in range with my $38.4 million prediction. After three weeks, the animated sequel has generated $356 million as it should blast past $400 million in short order.
Project Hail Mary was runner-up and it continued a remarkable run of meager declines. The sci-fi critical and commercial hit made $20.5 million, ahead of my $17.9 million forecast. The five-week total is rock solid $285 million.
Horror heavy franchise reboot Lee Cronin’s The Mummy stumbled in third with $13.5 million, under my $17.2 million take. With so-so reviews, scary movie fans did not turn out in the way Warner Bros. hoped for. With a C+ Cinemascore grade, look for this to wrap up its theatrical run quickly.
The Drama was fourth with $4.8 million, not matching my $6 million call. The unconventional romance is up to $39 million after three weekend.
Rom com You, Me & Tuscany fell 50% in its sophomore outing to fifth with $3.8 million (I said $4.5 million) for $14 million overall.
Lionsgate looks for Michael to pop with a large audience when it debuts April 24th. Antoine Fuqua moves away from Equalizer franchise flicks to helm the biopic of Michael Jackson. The legend’s nephew Jafaar Jackson is in the title role. Costars include Colman Domingo and Nia Long as MJ’s parents as well as Laura Harrier, Juliano Krue Valdi (playing the singer as a boy), and Miles Teller.
This genre has been flooded with titles in the last decade or so. Massive successes include Bohemian Rhapsody and Elvis. Others like Rocketman and Bob Marley: One Love performed admirably while Whitney Houston: I Wanna Dance with Somebody and Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere had their struggles.
Centered on one of music’s most beloved and controversial performers, expectations are understandably lofty for Michael. This should appeal to multiple demographic groups. There are records in the musical biopic classification that appear likely to be broken. Bohemian has the largest overall stateside earnings at $216 million. Straight Outta Compton boasts the best opening at $60 million. This could cause both of those high marks to bite the dust.
Anything below Compton‘s $60 million would be considered underwhelming. My hunch is to put this at the upper end of its range in the low 80s. I wouldn’t even be shocked to see it surpass that despite subpar reviews.
Lee Cronin’s The Mummy will attempt to scare up decent business as the weekend’s major new wide release, but The Super Mario Galaxy Movie looks to rule the charts for a third frame. You can peruse my detailed rap on the reboot of The Mummy franchise here:
My projection for the newcomer likely puts it in a battle for second place with the fifth weekend of Project Hail Mary. I’m looking for both to land in the mid to higher teens and I’ll give the latter a slight edge for a third weekend in the runner-up position. Warner Bros. would love for Cronin’s horror version of The Mummy to hit $20M+, but I’m skeptical.
As for Mario, it should have no trouble scoring the trifecta atop the box office mountain with earnings between $35-40 million. Its streak in the top spot should end in weekend #4 with musical biopic Michael slated to beat it.
Holdovers romances The Drama and You, Me & Tuscany should fill out the rest of the top five and here’s how I envision it shaking out:
1. The Super Mario Galaxy Movie
Predicted Gross: $38.4 million
2. Project Hail Mary
Predicted Gross: $17.9 million
3. Lee Cronin’s The Mummy
Predicted Gross: $17.2 million
4. The Drama
Predicted Gross: $6 million
5. You, Me & Tuscany
Predicted Gross: $4.5 million
Box Office Results(April 10-12)
The Super Mario Galaxy Movie didn’t hold as well as 2023 predecessor The Super Mario Bros. Movie, but its 48% decline was still commendable. The Illumination Entertainment sequel took in $68 million, falling below my generous $79.1 million prediction. In two weeks, the total has soared to $307 million.
Project Hail Mary eased only 24% in second with $24.1 million, ahead of my $20.6 million forecast. The sci-fi blockbuster stands at $256 million after four weeks.
The Drama with Zendaya and Robert Pattinson was third, with a solid 39% dip to $8.7 million. That’s on track with my $8.5 million call resulting in a two-week take of $30 million.
You, Me & Tuscany was fourth as the romantic comedy with Halle Bailey and Regé-Jean Page stalled with $7.7 million. I had it making more at $11.2 million.
Finally, Hoppers was fifth with $4.1 million (I said $3.6 million) as the Pixar effort jumped to $157 million after six weeks.
Lee Cronin’s The Mummy looks to wrap up an impressive debut when it drops April 17th. While the Brendan Fraser and Tom Cruise versions of The Mummy saga concentrated more on adventure, Evil Dead Rise director Cronin is bringing the horror to this James Wan/Jason Blum coproduction. Jack Reynor headlines the cast which includes Laia Costa, May Calamawy, Natalie Grace, and Verónica Falcón.
This is the second reboot of this franchise in the 21st century. The 2017 Tom Cruise one was a box office and critical failure (confession: i think it’s kinda fun). Warner Bros would love to see a repeat of the $24.5 million that greeted Evil Dead Rise over the same April time frame three years ago.
That is probably a best case scenario and I suspect it won’t reach those levels. Estimates have this is in the low to mid teens. I’ll say it manages to land on the higher end of that range.
Lee Cronin’s The Mummy opening weekend prediction: $17.2 million
After a potent start over the Easter frame, The Super Mario Galaxy Movie should easily rule the box office world yet again. You, Me & Tuscany is the only wide release newcomer likely to crack the top 5 and you can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:
Tuscany, the picturesque rom-com with Halle Bailey and Regé-Jean Page is a little bit of a mystery. It could bottom out in the high single digits or manage teens. I’m splitting the difference for a third place showing in the low double digits.
Mario Galaxy nearly rose to the opening earnings of 2023 predecessor The Super Mario Bros. Movie, but fell a bit short for what was still a terrific premiere (more on that below). Part 1 took in over $90 million in its sophomore outing and I’ve got this not reaching those heights.
Project Hail Mary should stay strong in second place and might witness the lowest percentage drop of the holdovers.
The Drama with Zendaya and Robert Pattinson opened in line with expectations. With a B Cinemascore grade (which is so-so), it could see a decline in the 50% range. However, I suspect it may ease in the lower 40s.
Hoppers should round out the top five and here’s I see it shaking out:
1. The Super Mario Galaxy Movie
Predicted Gross: $79.1 million
2. Project Hail Mary
Predicted Gross: $20.6 million
3. You, Me & Tuscany
Predicted Gross: $11.2 million
4. The Drama
Predicted Gross: $8.5 million
5. Hoppers
Predicted Gross: $3.6 million
Box Office Results (April 3-5)
Family audiences were certainly over the moon for The Super Mario Galaxy Movie as it hauled in $131.7 million from Friday to Sunday and $190.8 million since its Wednesday bow. While that doesn’t match the $204 million that 2023’s original banked, it shows that this franchise is on firm footing. The respective grosses eclipsed my predictions of $126.5 million and $171.2 million.
Project Hail Mary dropped to second after two weeks in first place with $31.7 million, a tad shy of my $35.2 million forecast. The sci-fi tale boasts $218 million in its coffers after three weeks.
The Drama, as mentioned, was on par with most estimates at $14.3 million in third. I thought it might climb a little higher with a $16.7 million call. It will be interesting to see if it fades quickly or has some staying power.
Hoppers was fourth with $5.8 million as the Disney/Pixar animated flick had its most significant percentage drop thanks to Mario and Luigi. I had it at $8 million. The five-week cumulation is $149 million.
Fifth place went to Reminders of Him with $2.2 million (I said $2.9 million) and $45 million after four weeks.
The Little Mermaid star Halle Bailey and Bridgerton lead Regé-Jean Page headline You, Me & Tuscany on April 10th. Universal hopes rom com fans check into the Kat Coiro (Marry Me) directed effort with a supporting cast featuring Marco Calvani, Lorenzo de Moor, Aziza Scott, Nia Vardolos, and Isabella Ferrari.
Tuscany could benefit from a lack of competition for genre fans. While The Drama with Zendaya and Robert Pattinson will be in its second frame, I certainly wouldn’t call that your traditional romantic comedy. A worst case opening might be in line with Coiro’s Marry Me with Jennifer Lopez and Owen Wilson. It premiered to just under $8 million during a busy Christmas season.
This should fare better and I’ll say it manages to cross double digits.
You, Me & Tuscany opening weekend prediction: $11.2 million
The Super Mario Galaxy Movie should play to domestic and worldwide domination over the Easter holiday as April dawns. Illumination Entertainment’s animated sequel debuts alongside Zendaya and Robert Pattinson in The Drama. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newbies here:
Three Easters back, The Super Mario Bros. Movie blew past expectations with nearly $150 million from Friday to Sunday and over $200 million when counting Wednesday and Thursday. Galaxy is smartly following the same release pattern. While I don’t think the results will be quite as much, it should surpass Project Hail Mary as the year’s largest premiere.
Speaking of Mary, there’s something about its second weekend that was remarkable (more on that below). The sci-fi tale with Ryan Gosling should have no trouble being strong in the runner-up position after two weeks on top.
As for The Drama, it’s more of a question mark. It looks to draw upon the star appeal of its young leads. I have it earning a tad more than Zendaya’s Challengers from 2024 in the mid teens for a third place showing.
Holdovers Hoppers and Reminders of Him should round out the top five and here’s how I have it rolling out:
1. The Super Mario Galaxy Movie
Predicted Gross: $126.5 million (Friday to Sunday); $171.2 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
2. Project Hail Mary
Predicted Gross: $35.2 million
3. The Drama
Predicted Gross: $16.7 million
4. Hoppers
Predicted Gross: $8 million
5. Reminders of Him
Predicted Gross: $2.9 million
Box Office Results (March 27-29)
Amazon MGM had a banner sophomore frame with Project Hail Mary. After launching to $80 million, the acclaimed adaptation of Andy Weir’s novel declined a meager 33% to $54 million for a two-week haul of $163 million. Eclipsing my $44.8 million prediction, a domestic end run of over $300 million appears to be happening as the crowd favorite builds Oscar steam.
Hoppers remained in second with $12.1 million, right in line with my $12 million call. Disney/Pixar’s original story has risen to $138 million after four weeks.
Comedic horror entry They Will Kill You was DOA in its unveiling. With $4.9 million in third, the Warner Bros release failed to hit my $6.3 million forecast. Look for it to fade fast.
Reminders of Him was fourth with $4.7 million, on target with my $4.3 million estimate. The romantic drama has made a respectable $41 million after three weeks.
Dhurandhar: The Revenge was right behind in fifth with $4.6 million and I incorrectly had it outside of the high five. The total is $22 million after two weeks.
Also in its second outing, Ready or Not 2: Here I Come fell 54% to $4.1 million (I said $4.2 million). The underwhelming sequel sits at $16 million.
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