Tag: box office predictions

October 9-11 Box Office Predictions

Horror looks to rule the charts with Jessica Chastain as the creepy Other Mommy while Aaron Sorkin’s The Social Reckoning also debuts. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the two newcomers here:

Other Mommy Box Office Prediction
The Social Reckoning Box Office Prediction

With an effective trailer and a likely hunger for scary material as we’re into the month of October, my high 20s projection for Mommy easily gives it the victory.

The Social Reckoning may have to settle for anywhere between third and fifth place. A sort of sequel to 2010’s acclaimed The Social Network, this updated look at Facebook/Meta isn’t carrying the type of buzz that greeted its predecessor. I have this making only a third of what Network achieved over a decade and a half ago.

As for holdovers, Verity had a fantastic opening (more on that below). The C+ Cinemascore grade is a bit troubling and a 60% sophomore dip would put it in a distant second. With my soft outlook for Reckoning, I’ll say that Resident Evil narrowly edges it out for third with Heart of the Beast rounding out the top five.

Here’s how I see it playing out:

1. Other Mommy

Predicted Gross: $29.2 million

2. Verity

Predicted Gross: $13.1 million

3. Resident Evil

Predicted Gross: $7.8 million

4. The Social Reckoning

Predicted Gross: $7.6 million

5. Heart of the Beast

Predicted Gross: $6.6 million

Box Office Results (October 2-4)

A couple weeks back, I couldn’t have imagined not discussing where Digger would place in the top five in its sophomore frame, but here we are.

We will get to Tom Cruise’s box office disaster shortly though we’ll start with positive results. Verity, based on the Colleen Hoover novel, opened at the highest end of expectations with $32 million. The thriller starring Anne Hathaway (in her fifth 2026 flick) and Dakota Johnson blew past my $20.4 million prediction. As mentioned, it should see a large decline this weekend but this is a fine result for Amazon MGM.

Resident Evil stayed in second place with $12.6 million, in range with my $12 million projection. The video game based horror tale has taken in $125 million after three weeks.

Heart of the Beast was third with $10.8 million, on pace with my $11.2 million call. The Brad Pitt/German Shepherd survival tale is up to $38 million in two weeks.

Digger was fourth and marked Tom Cruise’s lowest opening since 2007’s Lions for Lambs (in which he was a supporting player). With mixed reviews and a C+ Cinemascore, audiences and critics were divided and the result was only $8 million compared to my $10.3 million forecast. Warner Bros as we know it (after Paramount’s acquisition) goes out with a whimper as this will be a significant money loser for the studio.

Primetime rounded out the top five and I incorrectly had it on the outside looking in. Also with $8 million, the two-week tally is $34 million.

Finally, last week’s #1 Avengers: Endgame Encore fell a lot further than I figured in seventh with $4.4 million. That’s an 83% decline and I was far more generous at $10 million. Don’t feel bad for the MCU, however, as its overall gross since 2019 ballooned to $894 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

The Social Reckoning Box Office Prediction

Sixteen years after its predecessor became an Oscar player and one of the best regarded pictures of the 21st century, The Social Reckoning posts up in theaters on October 9th. A sequel of sorts to The Social Network, the main participant from that movie returning is writer/director Aaron Sorkin. He penned the screenplay for Network and takes over directorial duties from David Fincher. None of the original cast return with Jeremy Strong as Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg in place of Jesse Eisenberg. The legal thriller’s cast also includes Mikey Madison (in her first major role since her Oscar-winning turn in Anora), Jeremy Allen White, Wunmi Mosaku, Betty Gilpin, Billy Magnussen, and Bill Burr.

The buzz for Reckoning seems considerably lower than what greeted Network in 2010. Trailers have been met with a collective shrug. Unlike Network, awards talk isn’t really occurring. The review embargo is still up but early word-of-mouth equals the trailer reaction.

The Social Network kicked off with $22.4 million and I suspect the follow-up will be lucky to make half or even a third of that figure for starters.

The Social Reckoning opening weekend prediction: $7.6 million

For my Other Mommy prediction, click here:

Other Mommy Box Office Prediction

Other Mommy Box Office Prediction

Other Mommy looks to make lots of money for Universal when it debuts October 9th. Based on the 2024 novel by Josh Malerman (who also wrote the source material for the Netflix hit Bird Box), Jessica Chastain stars in the supernatural horror flick. The supporting cast includes Jay Duplass, Arabella Olivia Clark, Dichen Lachman, Arian Moayed, and Karen Allen. Rob Savage, maker of 2023’s ambivalently received The Boogeyman, directs.

She may be an Oscar winner, but Chastain is no stranger to the genre with Mama and It Chapter Two in her filmography. Scary movies have been hot in 2026 and a genuinely unsettling trailer should help Mommy score an easy #1 debut.

This should double the $12 million that greeted Savage’s Boogeyman and it could have room to spare. I’m projecting it’ll premiere with a mid to high 20s start.

Other Mommy opening weekend prediction: $29.2 million

For my The Social Reckoning prediction, click here:

The Social Reckoning Box Office Prediction

October 2-4 Box Office Predictions

For the first time in nearly a decade, Tom Cruise headlines a picture that isn’t an action sequel via Alejandro Gonzalez Iñárritu’s satire Digger. Cruise and company will need to fend off a challenge from Verity, a psychological thriller based on Colleen Hoover’s novel starring the inescapable Anne Hathaway and Dakota Johnson. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:

Digger Box Office Prediction
Verity Box Office Prediction

Truth be told, I think Ms. Hathaway easily holds the advantage. Verity should be able to bring in a decent (especially female) crowd familiar with the source material. Mid teens could be the floor though I have this in the mid 20s for a first place showing.

I would’ve pegged Digger for a similar start a couple of weeks back. However, reviews are subpar and this is not your typical Cruise content that audiences have grown accustomed to recently. My projection has steadily declined and my barely double digits forecast could put it anywhere from second place to fifth. That would be a disastrous kickoff for the satire with a $125 million budget.

Holdovers Avengers Endgame: Encore, Resident Evil, and Heart of the Beast may all be in the same range. I have #s 2-5 separated by a mere $2 million and here’s how I have it shaking out:

1. Verity

Predicted Gross: $20.4 million

2. Resident Evil

Predicted Gross: $12 million

3. Heart of the Beast

Predicted Gross: $11.2 million

4. Digger

Predicted Gross: $10.3 million

5. Avengers Endgame: Encore

Predicted Gross: $10 million

Box Office Results (September 25-27)

Not long after Spider-Man relinquished the top spot, the MCU returned to #1 with the re-release (with some extra footage) of 2019’s Avengers: Endgame Encore. Meant to drum up anticipation for December’s Avengers: Doomsday, the epic comic book experience accomplished its mission and added $26.1 million to its coffers. That’s beyond my $22.6 million take as its domestic total ballooned to $884 million.

Resident Evil, after a terrific debut, slid to second with an understandable 62% dip to $23 million. I was on target with a $24 million prediction as the franchise reboot passed the century mark after ten days with $103 million.

Three newcomers filled with the rest of the top five with Brad Pitt’s Heart of the Beast in third. With a German Shepherd as his costar, the survival drama earned $20 million, surpassing my $16.8 million call. That gross would be more notable if not for its $80M+ budget, but it’s still at the high end of its anticipated range.

Primetime starring Robert Pattinson rode a wave of favorable buzz to $19.1 million in fourth compared to my $14.5 million prediction. Lots of audience members chose to have a seat for the A24 title which has a lowly $15 million price tag.

The news was not as positive for DreamWorks Animation’s Forgotten Island. Despite fresh critical reaction, the family friendly tale was fifth with $13 million (I went higher at $17.2 million). It’ll hope for families to catch up in subsequent weekends though it’s undoubtedly a flat result.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Digger Box Office Prediction

For the better part of the past decade, Tom Cruise has been busy reprising iconic roles from the 80s and 90s in three Mission: Impossible pics and the mega-grossing Top Gun: Maverick. On October 2nd, he’s out of action star and stunt making mode and headlining the satire Digger. Caked in makeup and playing an eccentric billionaire, Alejandro G. Iñárritu (double Oscar winner for Birdman and The Revenant) directs. The supporting cast includes Riz Ahmed, John Goodman, Sandra Hüller, Michael Stuhlbarg, and Jesse Plemons.

The review embargo lifts next week, but early social media chatter indicates this will draw wildly diverse reactions. Cruise, as we’ve grown accustomed to, is promoting this change of pace black comedy with gusto. However, the mixed word-of-mouth could limit its potential

UPDATE (09/29): The review embargo has lifted and it’s NOT good news for Cruise and company. My initial projection in the high teens has now plummeted to low double digits.

With a reported $125 million price tag, Digger needs impressive numbers domestically and overseas. I suspect the stateside earnings may be far from groundbreaking. While some estimates have this topping $20 million, I’m projecting a premiere below Cruise’s last non-sequel. That was back in 2017 when American Made kicked off with just under $17 million. Digger may fare worse and my barely double digits estimate would classify it as a notable bomb considering the reported $125 million price tag.

Digger opening weekend prediction: $10.3 million

For my Verity prediction, click here:

Verity Box Office Prediction

Verity Box Office Prediction

The onslaught of 2026 Anne Hathaway movies continues with Verity, based on the novel by It Ends with Us author Colleen Hoover. Out October 2nd, Dakota Johnson and Josh Hartnett costar in the psychological thriller directed by Michael Showalter.

Originally slated for May, this becomes Hathaway’s fifth pic of the year behind Mother Mary, The Devil Wears Prada 2, The Odyssey, and The End of Oak Street. As far as opening weekends, it could land right in the middle and certainly behind Prada and Odyssey. It might also fall a tad behind Oak‘s $21 million premiere.

Hoover’s built-in audience should mean a decent female turnout. While I don’t see this approaching the $50 million that It Ends with Us scored out of the gate, a start in the mid 20s seems doable. That could put it in a close race for #1 with Tom Cruise’s Digger (Hathaway will team up with Cruise for summer 2028’s Days of Thunder 2).

Verity opening weekend prediction: $25.4 million

For my Digger prediction, click here:

Digger Box Office Prediction

September 25-27 Box Office Predictions

As September closes out, the top 5 should consist of 80% fresh product with four titles primed to gross $10 million and higher. However, current champ Resident Evil could maintain first position. We have the re-release of the MCU’s Avengers: Endgame Encore, DreamWorks Animation’s Forgotten Island, Brad Pitt and a German Shepherd in the survival tale Heart of the Beast, and Robert Pattinson headlining the biographical thriller Primetime. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newbies here:

Avengers: Endgame Encore Box Office Prediction
Forgotten Island Box Office Prediction
Heart of the Beast Box Office Prediction
Primetime Box Office Prediction

Let’s start with a caveat – this is an unpredictable frame. I believe all the newcomers have a shot at outperforming my forecasts. Avengers and Island, in particular, could exceed expectations and challenge for the top spot. My hunch is that, even with a 60% drop (fine for its genre), Resident Evil will maintain its #1 bragging rights with a mid-20s gross.

If I get the order of 2-5 right, I’ll be happy with myself. For the incoming quartet, I have all placing between $10-$20 million. With the advantage of following Spider-Man: Brand New Day and meant to drum up anticipation for December’s Avengers: Doomsday, Disney/Marvel’s Endgame return to theaters could approach the $20 million figure and I have it achieving runner-up status.

With solid reviews, Forgotten Island could be right behind in third or be second. The fact that it’s not based on known IP could be a hurdle for kiddos and parents to RSVP.

Pitt’s Beast, his first pic since last summer’s blockbuster F1, is also drawing decent critical reaction. Mid to high teens is certainly doable for a fourth place finish.

Primetime is perhaps the biggest unknown. With Pattinson as To Catch a Predator host Chris Hansen, the trailer is buzzy as was reaction at the Venice Film Festival earlier this month. This might have more audience members seated than I’m estimating but my prognosis in the low teens has it rounding out the top five. I also wouldn’t be shocked if it fell between $8-13 million or even approached $20 million.

Here’s how I have this fascinating weekend shaking out:

1. Resident Evil

Predicted Gross: $24 million

2. Avengers: Endgame Encore

Predicted Gross: $22.6 million

3. Forgotten Island

Predicted Gross: $17.2 million

4. Heart of the Beast

Predicted Gross: $16.8 million

5. Primetime

Predicted Gross: $14.5 million

Box Office Results (September 18-20)

Horror enthusiasts and gamers came out in droves for Zach Cregger’s reboot of the Resident Evil franchise. The well-reviewed eighth overall entry in the series boasted a $60.1 million premiere, managing to top my $55.8 million prediction. That more than doubles the previous best of the bunch – 2010’s Resident Evil: Afterlife at $26 million and sets a personal best for the Weapons filmmaker.

Practical Magic 2 was second with a 60% fall in frame #2 as the witchy sequel made $12.1 million, in line with my $12.4 million take. Falling on the low end of its range, the two-week total is $50 million.

Summer holdovers populated slots 3-5. Spider-Man: Brand New Day was third with $6.4 million compared to my $4.7 million call. Earlier in the week, Day surpassed 2015’s Star Wars: The Force Awakens to become the largest domestic grosser of all time at $944 million after eight weeks.

The Odyssey was fourth with $4.9 million (I said $4.6 million) as Christopher Nolan’s epic brought its tally to $609 million in ten weeks.

Finally, Coyote vs. Acme was fifth with $4.4 million, ahead of my $3.5 million projection for $54 million in four weeks.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Primetime Box Office Prediction

With Robert Pattinson headlining as To Catch a Predator host Chris Hansen, Primetime is exposed in multiplexes starting September 25th. Lance Oppenheim, a documentarian making his narrative feature debut, directs (he’s got the buzzy doc You Can See Everything out in October). Costars include Merritt Wever, Skyler Gisondo, Phoebe Bridgers, Bokeem Woodbine, Anna Faris, and Tony Revolori.

Primetime picked up mostly positive buzz after its unveiling at the Venice Film Festival. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 93% with Metacritic at 73. There is chatter for the busy Pattinson nabbing his first Oscar nomination. Will that translate to lots of moviegoers having a seat in theaters?

A solid result would be anything north of $10 million and I think that is achievable. I’ll go a bit over and put it in low teens as it hopes WOM keeps it afloat moving forward.

Primetime opening weekend prediction: $14.5 million

For my Avengers Endgame: Encore prediction, click here:

Avengers: Endgame Encore Box Office Prediction

For my Heart of the Beast prediction, click here:

Heart of the Beast Box Office Prediction

For my Forgotten Island prediction, click here:

Forgotten Island Box Office Prediction

Forgotten Island Box Office Prediction

Forgotten Island from DreamWorks Animation is the fairly rare wholly original feature from a genre often reliant on sequels and other known IP. Joel Crawford (who last helmed Puss in Boots: The Last Wish) and Januel Mercado direct with a voice cast including H.E.R., Liza Soberano, Dave Franco, Jenny Slate, Manny Jacinto, Dolly de Leon, Jo Koy, Ronny Chieng, and Lea Salonga.

The fantastical comedy hopes to bring in kids (particular young girls) and their parents in a market devoid of much family programming. However, general lack of awareness and minimal buzz for the 1990s Philippines set tale could limit its potential.

Animated flicks can always exceed expectations and the ceiling could be an opening in the $25 million neighborhood. I’m more skeptical and projecting high teens.

Forgotten Island opening weekend prediction: $17.2 million

For my Avengers Endgame: Encore prediction, click here:

Avengers: Endgame Encore Box Office Prediction

For my Heart of the Beast prediction, click here:

Heart of the Beast Box Office Prediction

For my Primetime prediction, click here:

Primetime Box Office Prediction

Heart of the Beast Box Office Prediction

Brad Pitt reunites with his Fury director David Ayer for the survival tale Heart of the Beast on September 25th. While J.K. Simmons and Anna Lambe costar, Pitt’s main companion is German Shepherd Uber as Odin. The story centers around a Special Forces member and his combat dog stranded in the wilderness following a plane crash.

Beast could benefit from being Pitt’s first feature since last summer’s smash F1. A best case scenario could land it close to $20 million. A disappointing result would be in the lower double digits. I’ve got this right in the middle of that range for a respectable debut as Paramount hopes strong WOM will carry it in the future weekends.

Heart of the Beast opening weekend prediction: $16.8 million

For my Avengers: Endgame Encore prediction, click here:

Avengers: Endgame Encore Box Office Prediction

For my Forgotten Island prediction, click here:

Forgotten Island Box Office Prediction

For my Primetime prediction, click here:

Primetime Box Office Prediction