Steven Spielberg is back in familiar alien territory when Disclosure Day opens June 12th. The sci-fi saga centered on extraterrestrial revelations finds the Close Encounters of the Third, E.T.: The Extra-Terrestrial, and War of the Worlds maker in summer blockbuster mode for the first time in years. Emily Blunt and Josh O’Connor star with Colin Firth, Eve Hewson, Colman Domingo, and Wyatt Russell in support. David Koepp, a frequent collaborator of the director who penned Jurassic Park and War of the Worlds, scripts.
The trailers have done a decent job at keeping Spielberg’s wishes to not spoil the plot. The pic’s biggest selling point is indeed the man behind the camera. You can’t say that about many directors though Christopher Nolan certainly comes to mind recently. As mentioned, you have to go back to 2008’s Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull for Mr. Spielberg’s last proper popcorn flick in this season.
Forthcoming reviews could help or hinder the turnout and let’s see if I adjust my figure next week when the buzz is louder. Current estimates have this between $40-$50 million with the possibility of an uptick seeming likelier than the alternative. Considering that many movies are exceeding expectations, I’ll go with the slight over.
Disclosure Day opening weekend prediction: $51.6 million
**Blogger’s Update (06/03): A day after posting my top 5 predictions, we are making it a top 6. The Amazing Digital Circus: The Last Act wasn’t really on my radar screen. However, the combination of episodes for the adult web animated series opens Thursday and is expected to make some noise. My $13.1 million Friday to Sunday guesstimate gives it the 5 spot, knocking The Mandalorian to sixth.
While scary movies ruled the charts in the remarkable weekend that just happened, the franchise that spoofs them returns to theaters for the first time in 13 years and should place #1. In addition to Scary Movie, He-Man is back in multiplexes after nearly 40 years offscreen with Masters of the Universe. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:
Scary Movie looks to be arriving at an opportune time as horror flicks are dominating and posting previously unthought of grosses via Backrooms and Obsession. The sixth entry in the series began in 2000, it could absolutely break the franchise opening record held by Scary Movie 3 at $48 million. I’ve got it just under in what should be an uncomplicated path to the top slot.
The race for #2 is more open. Adapting the toy line and Saturday morning cartoon that began over 40 years ago (and led to a panned Dolph Lundgren live-action version in 1987), Masters needs family audiences to turn out as teens and adults will be preoccupied with Scary Movie and scary movies. My projection of just under $30 million would be considered a letdown. If Masters does my estimated figure, it opens the door for Backrooms to be second if it drops in the 60% range. That’s what I’m saying will happen in a photo finish.
Then there’s Obsession which has built its earnings from the first week to the second to the third. As mentioned before, that’s practically unheard of for any wide release movie (let alone a horror one). I have it finally easing in the mid teens in week #4, but we’re in uncharted territory here so who knows?
After a troubling second outing, The Mandalorian and Grogu should round out the top five. Finally, Power Ballad with Paul Rudd and Nick Jonas expands nationwide. I didn’t do an individual post for it. I’ll put its wide release at $4.2 million and that’s well outside the top five.
Here’s how I have it shaking out:
1. Scary Movie
Predicted Gross: $47.5 million
2. Backrooms
Predicted Gross: $30.6 million
3. Masters of the Universe
Predicted Gross: $29.8 million
4. Obsession
Predicted Gross: $23.4 million
5. The Amazing Digital Circus: The Last Act
Predicted Gross: $13.1 million
6. The Mandalorian and Grogu
Predicted Gross: $11 million
Box Office Results (May 29-31)
Before Backrooms came out, A24’s largest opening weekend belonged to Civil War at $25 million. I knew Backrooms would blast past that record and predicted that it would more than double that figure at $57 million. I couldn’t have been more wrong. Based on the hit found footage web series, it more than tripled A24’s previous best at $81.4 million. To say the least, young viewers turned out in droves and a new franchise is undoubtedly born.
Obsession stayed in second and increased its crowd by 14% at $27.3 million, falling just below my $29.5 million prediction. The phenomenon now has $105 million in the bank after three weeks.
A week after experiencing the worst Star Wars start in the Disney era, The Mandalorian and Grogu had the heftiest percentage drop of them all. Falling 70%, it made $24.4 million compared to my $25.6 million call. The less than anticipated total is $136 million.
Michael was fourth with $11.8 million (I said $13 million) as the musical biopic has amassed $340 million after six weeks.
Nate Bargatze is a bestselling stand-up, but it didn’t translate to box office bucks in his first starring vehicle The Breadwinner. It sputtered in fifth with only $7.3 million. I was more generous at $12.1 million.
Finally, Pressure opened in seventh with $5.8 million. The well-reviewed World War II drama got beyond my $4.9 million estimate with the fifth highest per theater average in the top 10.
Bringing IP to the screen that’s been dormant for nearly 40 years, Masters of the Universe hopes to kickstart a new franchise when it debuts June 5th. Adapting the toy line and Saturday morning cartoon franchise that began in the early 80s, Travis Knight (Bumblebee) directs with Nicholas Galitzine as hero Adam/He-Man and Jared Leto as the villainous Skeletor. The supporting cast includes Camila Mendes, Alison Brie, James Purefoy, Morena Baccarin, Jóhannes Haukur Jóhannesson, and Idris Elba. Kristin Wiig provides voiceover work.
While the film has been in development for many years, you have to go back to 1987 to find the first (and last) time these characters appeared in theaters. That was with Dolph Lundgren as He-Man, Frank Langella as Skeletor, and Courteney Cox in the middle of the action. It was a critical and financial dud and the new Masters hopes to avoid the same fate.
There are challenges. First and foremost, younger viewers may not be as familiar with the source material. Older viewers who did watch the animated series decades ago might not be clamoring for the update. The studio is banking on parents and their kids turning out.
Knight exceeded expectations with Bumblebee and Amazon MGM looks for buzz to increase with his latest. I’m still skeptical this meets its somewhat meager expectations in the mid 30s. I’m taking the under for a rocky beginning.
Masters of the Universe opening weekend prediction: $29.8 million
As scary movies are doing blockbuster business at the box office lately, the franchise spoofing them is back in multiplexes after a lengthy break. Scary Movie, the sixth installment in the series that began in 2000, premieres June 5th with some familiar faces from past entries. This includes the Wayans family’s involvement for the first time since #2 in 2001 with Marlon and Shawn starring and Keenan Ivory cowriting and coproducing. Damon Wayans Jr. and Kim Wayans join as do Anna Faris, Regina Hall, Kenan Thompson, Dave Sheridan, Lochlyn Munro, Cheri Oteri, Chris Elliot, and Heidi Gardner. Michael Tiddes, maker of A Haunted House and its sequel with the Wayans brothers, directs.
Twenty six years ago, Scary Movie was primarily a sendup of the Scream flicks and it was a massive hit with a $42 million opening and $157 million overall domestic haul (still the best of the previous quintet). The all-time strongest debut belongs to 2003’s Scary Movie 3 at $48 million. By 2013, the franchise had run out of steam with Scary Movie V posting $14 million out of the gate and $32 million total (both lows).
Paramount hopes the 13-year pause breeds nostalgia. The notion could pan out. There are plenty of newer horror titles to parody including Weapons, Sinners, The Substance, and the recent Scream tales. It also doesn’t hurt that Backrooms and Obsession are currently doing amazing business and keeping the genre in the forefront. A best case scenario is an overperformance and series best kickoff at $50 million or more. I think it’ll open similarly to the franchise high, but fall just under.
Scary Movie opening weekend prediction: $47.5 million
For my Masters of the Universe prediction, click here:
Blogger’s Update (05/28): Some revisions asweekday numbers for Obsession now have me thinking it will gain from its sophomore frame and place second with Mandalorian now dipping to third. Additionally, my projection for Backrooms continues to rise and I’m now putting it at $57 million, up from $54 million.
Horror flick Backrooms looks to open at the front of the charts while Nate Bargatze’s comedy The Breadwinner and World War II drama Pressure with Andrew Scott and Brendan Fraser seek impressive earnings. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the trio of newcomers here:
Based on a popular YouTube web series, Backrooms from Kane Parsons has a wide range of possibility. A worst case scenario could put it in second place behind the second frame of The Mandalorian and Grogu. There’s also the potential for an overperformance topping approaching $60 million. My mid 50s projection puts it in first with ease.
That’s because The Mandalorian got off to a so-so start (more on that below) and I suspect it’s headed for a precipitous fall in the high 60s.
Obsession, after a remarkable sophomore weekend hold, may only slide slightly for a third place showing. That could leave The Breadwinner well behind in fourth in the low teens though Bargatze’s fanbase may turn out enough for a better than anticipated premiere. Comedies are tricky. It might also struggle to make $10 million.
As for Pressure, with a reported theater count of around 1800, my $4.9 million forecast would put it outside of the top five.
Here’s how I have that high five shaking out:
1. Backrooms
Predicted Gross: $57 million
2. Obsession
Predicted Gross: $29.5 million
3. The Mandalorian and Grogu
Predicted Gross: $25.6 million
4. Michael
Predicted Gross: $13 million
5. The Breadwinner
Predicted Gross: $12.1 million
Box Office Results (May 22-25)
The Mandalorian and Grogu never appeared to have the excitement that greets Star Wars series entries and the numbers proved that over Memorial Day weekend. The continuation of the Disney+ show landed with the lowest opening of any franchise pic since the Mouse House took over distribution beginning in 2015 with Star Wars: The Force Awakens. Opening slightly under 2018’s Solo: A Star Wars Story, the Friday to Sunday three-day take was $81.6 million, just over my $80.3 million prediction. When counting Monday, it grew to $98 million and that managed to top my $94.7 million take. While those grosses would be pleasing for most summer titles, that’s simply not the case here.
Obsession was arguably a bigger story this weekend as it grew 39% over its first frame. This is pretty much unheard of for any picture and especially in the horror genre. The Friday to Sunday earnings of $23.9 million and $31.9 million over the four-day easily surpassed my respective projections of $17.5 million and $22.9 million and the two-week total rose to $62 million.
Michael went from to 1st to 3rd with $20.6 million (three-day) and $27.1 million (four-day), ahead of my $18.8 million and $23.9 million guesstimates. The music biopic has now amassed $321 million in five weeks.
The Devil Wears Prada 2 was fourth with $12.7 million over the traditional weekend and $16.2 million with Monday added. The comedy sequel took in more than my $9.7 million and $12.6 million estimates and it has $199 million in the bank after four weeks,.
The Sheep Detectives held impressively in fifth with $9.2 million from Friday to Sunday (I said $7 million) and $12.3 million counting Monday (I went with $8.9 million). The three-week gross is $46 million for the summer sleeper.
Scary movie Passenger managed to outdo my predictions with $8.7 million (Fri-Sun) and $10.3 million (Fri-Mon). While I went lower respectively with $6.3 million and $7.3 million, the 6th place newcomer was overshadowed by Obsession. Unlike that movie, a hefty sophomore drop is probably coming.
Mortal Kombat II was seventh with $6 million over the three-day. My guess? $6 million! Its $7.6 million four-day slightly edged my $7.2 million call and the three-week total is $74 million.
Finally, absurdist comedy I Love Boosters from Boots Riley kicked off in 8th with $3.7 million from Friday to Sunday. My guess? $3.7 million! Like Kombat, the $4.7 million four-day barely exceeded my $4.5 million prediction.
StudioCanal’s Pressure hopes to serve as counterprogramming for adult filmgoers when it lands in theaters May 29th. Focused on the lead-up to D-Day, the World War II drama stars Andrew Scott as Captain James Stagg and Brendan Fraser as then General Dwight D. Eisenhower. The supporting cast includes Kerry Condon, Chris Messina, and Damian Lewis.
I’m a little surprised the distributor didn’t opt to open this over the Memorial Day weekend. Perhaps they thought competition was too much. It is reported that the screen count is approximately 1800 next weekend and that’s low for a summer release.
Last year’s Nuremberg debuted on around 1800 and made just shy of $4 million out of the gate. That might be Pressure‘s initial frame is pointed and I’ll give it a bit over.
Nate Bargatze is one of the best selling stand-ups in the country and Sony hopes his popularity translates to the big screen when The Breadwinner opens May 29th. With a Mr. Mom-ish premise, the comedian stars and cowrites with Mandy Moore, Colin Jost, Zach Cherry, Kumail Nanjiani, and Will Forte in the supporting cast. Eric Appel directs.
This genre is a tough sell at multiplexes over the last few years as many titles go the streaming route. The Breadwinner has the potential to break out thanks to Bargatze’s following. Anything in the higher teens should be considered a massice success and teens is respectable. I have it falling just under that.
The Breadwinner opening weekend prediction: $12.1 million
A24 looks to achieve its largest opening weekend yet when Backrooms arrives on May 29th. Based on his own highly popular web series, Kane Parsons directs the sci-fi horror flick. Chiwetel Ejiofor leads a cast that includes Renate Reinsve, Mark Duplass, Finn Bennett, and Lukita Maxwell.
With James Wan, Shawn Levy, and Osgood Perkins among the producers, this looks to capitalize on its YouTube source material which boasts nearly 80 millions views. In order to set a record premiere for its distributor, Backrooms would need to top the $27 million that last December’s Marty Supreme started with.
Even though its earnings might be front-loaded, my hunch is that this has a better shot at exceeding expectations than going under them. I think mid to high 50s is doable and that would give it the #1 spot over The Mandalorian and Grogu and Obsession.
The Mandalorian and Grogu marks the first Star Wars theatrical entry in six years and it should easily rule the Memorial Day weekend charts. We also have horror flick Passenger and Boots Riley’s absurdist comedy I Love Boosters premiering. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the trio here:
While Mandolarian will certainly have no trouble placing first, the opening could be rather weak by Star Wars standards. I am forecasting that the continuation of the Disney Plus series will fall under $100 million for the four-day and that would be considered an unimpressive start.
Passenger could fall victim to the buzz surrounding fellow scary movie Obsession in its sophomore outing (more on its debut below). I have it outside of the top five.
Same goes for Boosters which could be looking at eighth place in the lower to mid single digits. I’m not convinced that mostly solid reviews will cause it to exceed expectations.
As for holdovers, there could be a close race for second. Current champ Michael might be the safe bet. However, Obsession may not see much of a drop at all in weekend #2 thanks to word-of-mouth and an A- Cinemascore (very high for its genre). In fact, I have it slightly increasing.
The Devil Wears Prada 2, The Sheep Detectives, and Mortal Kombat II should be 4-6 and here’s how I see the 3-day and 4-day grosses shaking out:
1. The Mandalorian and Grogu
Predicted Gross: $80.3 million (Fri-Sun); $94.7 million (Fri-Mon)
2. Michael
Predicted Gross: $18.8 million (Fri-Sun); $23.9 million (Fri-Mon)
3. Obsession
Predicted Gross: $17.5 million (Fri-Sun); $22.9 million (Fri-Mon)
4. The Devil Wears Prada 2
Predicted Gross: $9.7 million (Fri-Sun); $12.6 million (Fri-Mon)
5. The Sheep Detectives
Predicted Gross: $7 million (Fri-Sun); $8.9 million (Fri-Mon)
6. Passenger
Predicted Gross: $6.3 million (Fri-Sun); $7.3 million (Fri-Mon)
7. Mortal Kombat II
Predicted Gross: $6 million (Fri-Sun); $7.2 million (Fri-Mon)
8. I Love Boosters
Predicted Gross: $3.7 million (Fri-Sun); $4.5 million (Fri-Mon)
Box Office Results (May 15-17)
Michael made a return to the top spot in its fourth week with $26.1 million, right on target with my $25.8 million call. The King of Pop biopic has (moon)walked away with $282 million in domestic dollars thus far.
The Devil Wears Prada 2, after two weeks in first, fell to second with $17.8 million. That 57% decline is steeper than my $23 million estimate though it’s grown to $175 million total.
Obsession is the story of the weekend. Budgeted at a reported $1 million and purchased by Focus Features for approximately $15 million, it slayed in third with $17.1 million. That’s well beyond my meager $9.6 million projection as it looks to play well throughout the season.
In fourth, Mortal Kombat II plummeted 65% in weekend #2 to $13.4 million. My prediction? $13.4 million! The martial arts sequel stands at $62 million.
The Sheep Detectives was fifth with $9.5 million (I said $10.2 million) for a decent two-week tally of $29 million.
Finally, Guy Ritchie’s In the Grey starring Henry Cavill and Jake Gyllenhaal was a dud in ninth with $2.9 million. I was generous at $5.9 million.
Absurdist crime comedy I Love Boosters hopes to make off with respectable box office grosses on May 22nd. This is Boots Riley’s follow-up to 2018’s acclaimed Sorry to Bother You. The eclectic cast includes Keke Palmer, Naomi Ackie, Taylour Paige, Poppy Liu, Eiza González, LaKeith Stanfield, Will Poulter, Don Cheadle, and Demi Moore.
The Neon release was first screened at South by Southwest in March to fresh reviews (95% Rotten Tomatoes, 73 Metacritic). Debuting over the Memorial Day weekend, the real question is whether this manages to play between the coasts. That could be a challenge.
Budgeted for a reported $20 million, it would exceed expectations if it gets past $5 million over the Friday to Sunday portion of the holiday frame. I’m projecting that it will not.
I Love Boosters opening weekend prediction: $3.7 million (Friday to Sunday); $4.5 million (Friday to Monday)
For my The Mandalorian and Grogu prediction, click here:
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