Tag: Telluride Film Festival

99th Academy Awards Predictions: September 14th Edition

I did my last Oscar predictions update as August closed out and a lot has occurred since then. The Venice and Telluride Film Festivals have come and gone and Toronto’s is ongoing. We have buzz, reviews, and WOM on plenty more movies. You can peruse my blog for detailed posts on them.

So what’s changed and what’s changed the same? Let’s start with the same. The Odyssey and The Black Ball are still 1-2 in BP while Wild Horse Nine and The Debut have risen after their festival debuts. Yet there’s only a single newcomer in BP and it’s from a foreign feature that premiered months ago at Cannes. I’m swapping in All of a Sudden for Fjord (which won the Palme d’Or at that French fest back in May).

In Other Possibilities in Best Picture, You Can See Everything pops up in 19th. At Telluride, it was a project no one knew existed and the documentary focused on Nathan Fielder’s dealings with Elizabeth Holmes sits at #2 in Doc Feature behind new #1 NAZA. That doc received the longest recorded standing ovation in Venice history. Everything has a teaser that has already inspired countless memes.

In Best Actress, I already had Julianne Moore (The Debut) in 1st place but its unveiling certainly solidifies it. Same goes for her costar in Paul Giamatti in Supporting Actor.

John Malkovich rises to 1st in Best Actor for Wild Horse Nine with Elsinore‘s Andrew Scott on his heels and Matt Damon (The Odyssey) dropping from 1st to 3rd.

The All of a Sudden momentum benefits Virginie Efira in Best Actress. She joins the projected quintet with Renate Reinsve (Fjord) on the outside looking in. Efira’s costar Tao Okamoto rises in Supporting Actress as does Samantha Morton (The Odyssey) with Mariana di Girolamo (Wild Horse Nine) and Olivia Colman (Elsinore) dropping.

You can read all the movement below. I’ll note that The Odyssey is back up to 16 nominations which ties it with Sinners for the all-time record. My next update is coming in two weeks!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (+1)

4. The Debut (PR: 8) (+4)

5. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (-2)

6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 5) (-1)

7. The Invite (PR: 7) (E)

8. Obsession (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Behemoth! (PR: 10) (+1)

10. All of a Sudden (PR: 13) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

11. Fjord (PR: 6) (-5)

12. Digger (PR: 12) (E)

13. Michael (PR: 15) (+2)

14. Possible Love (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Elsinore (PR: 14) (-1)

16. I Play Rocky (PR: Not Ranked)

17. Ink (PR: 11) (-6)

18. Club Kid (PR: 24) (+6)

19. You Can See Everything (PR: Not Ranked)

20. The Social Reckoning (PR: 17) (-3)

21. Werwulf (PR: 19) (-2)

22. Being Heumann (PR: 20) (-2)

23. Primetime (PR: 16) (-7)

24. Josephine (PR: 22) (-2)

25. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 18) (-7)

Dropped Out:

The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth

Disclosure Day

A Long Winter

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo, The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Olivia Wilde, The Invite (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Jesse Eisenberg, The Debut (PR: 11) (+6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden (PR: 10) (+4)

7. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (E)

8. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Cristian Mingiu, Fjord (PR: 4) (-5)

10. Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Digger (PR: 8) (-2)

11. Tony Gilroy, Behemoth! (PR: 9) (-2)

12. Lee Chang-dong, Possible Love (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Curry Barker, Obsession (PR: 13) (E)

14. Danny Boyle, Ink (PR: 12) (-2)

15. Robert Eggers, Werwulf (PR: 15) (E)

Dropped Out:

Lance Oppenheim, Primetime

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Julianne Moore, The Debut (PR: 1) (E)

2. Inde Navarrette, Obsession (PR: 2) (E)

3. Olivia Wilde, The Invite (PR: 3) (E)

4. Sandra Hüller, Rose (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Renate Reinsve, Fjord (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie (PR: 7) (E)

8. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Léa Seydoux, Gentle Monster (PR: 11) (+2)

10. Rosalind Eleazar, Misty Green (PR: 14) (+4)

11. Emily Blunt, Disclosure Day (PR: 8) (-3)

12. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning (PR: 9) (-4)

14. Sandra Hüller, Fatherland (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Mason Reeves, Josephine (PR: 15) (E)

Dropped Out:

Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Andrew Scott, Elsinore (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Matt Damon, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (-2)

4. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Robert Pattinson, Primetime (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Tom Cruise, Digger (PR: 6) (E)

7. Pedro Pascal, Behemoth! (PR: 7) (E)

8. Anthony Ippolito, I Play Rocky (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Jaafar Jackson, Michael (PR: 9) (E)

10. Sebastian Stan, Fjord (PR: 8) (-2)

11. John Turturro, The Only Living Pickpocket in New York (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Seth Rogen, The Invite (PR: 10) (-2)

13. Andrew Garfield, Artificial (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Three (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Jordan Firstman, Club Kid (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Jack O’Connell, Ink

Dominic Sessa, Tony

Javier Bardem, The Beloved

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Penélope Cruz, The Invite (PR: 2) (E)

3. Samantha Morton, The Odyssey (PR: 7) (+4)

4. Lola Dueñas, The Black Ball (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Tao Okamoto, All of a Sudden (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Olivia Colman, Elsinore (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Penélope Cruz, The Black Ball (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Mariana di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (-5)

9. Sandra Hüller, Digger (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 12) (+2)

11. Scarlett Johansson, Paper Tiger (PR: 15) (+4)

12. Gillian Anderson, Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Miasma (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Eva Victor, Behemoth! (PR: 14) (+1)

14. Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 9) (-5)

15. Elizabeth Debicki, The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Claire Foy, Ink

Esmé Creed-Miles, Sense and Sensibility

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Paul Giamatti, The Debut (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 2) (E)

3. Edward Norton, The Invite (PR: 3) (E)

4. John Leguizamo, The Odyssey (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Guy Pearce, Ink (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. John Goodman, Digger (PR: 6) (E)

7. Robert Pattinson, The Odyssey (PR: 14) (+7)

8. Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning (PR: 8) (E)

9. Colman Domingo, Michael (PR: 9) (E)

10. Guitarricadelafuente, The Black Ball (PR: 10) (E)

11. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 7) (-4)

12. Skyler Gisondo, Primetime (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Riz Ahmed, Digger (PR: 11) (-2)

14. Channing Tatum, Josephine (PR: 12) (-2)

15. Tom Holland, The Odyssey (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Mark Ruffalo, Being Heumann

Daniel Kaluuya, Misty Green

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Debut (PR: 2) (E)

3. Obsession (PR: 3) (E)

4. Fjord (PR: 4) (E)

5. Club Kid (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Behemoth! (PR: 6) (E)

7. Tender Loving Care (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Digger (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Possible Love (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Elsinore (PR: 5) (-5)

Dropped Out:

The Drama

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Invite (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Odyssey (PR: 3) (E)

4. All of a Sudden (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Project Hail Mary (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Ink (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Primetime (PR: 7) (-1)

9. The Social Reckoning (PR: 9) (E)

10. The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 10) (E)

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Black Ball (PR: 1) (E)

2. All of a Sudden (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Fjord (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Possible Love (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Minotaur (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Fatherland (PR: 6) (E)

7. Rose (PR: 7) (E)

8. Woman Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Coward (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Silent Friend (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Mimesis

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wildwood (PR: 1) (E)

2. Toy Story 5 (PR: 2) (E)

3. Ray Gunn (PR: 3) (E)

4. Tangles (PR: 4) (E)

5. Iron Boy (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Hoppers (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Forgotten Island (PR: 6) (-1)

8. In Waves (PR: 8) (E)

9. Shaun the Sheep: The Beast of Mossy Bottom (PR: 9) (E)

10. Coyote vs. Acme (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Hexed

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. NAZA (PR: 3) (+2)

2. You Can See Everything (PR: Not Ranked)

3. Once Upon a Time in Harlem (PR: 1) (-2)

4. American Doctor (PR: 2) (-2)

5. One in a Million (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. 14th (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Rehearsals for a Revolution (PR: 10) (+3)

8. To Hold a Mountain (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Nuisance Bear (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Closure (PR: 7) (-3)

Dropped Out:

The History of Concrete

Best Casting

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 2) (+1)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Debut (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Being Heumann (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Michael (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Digger (PR: 7) (E)

8. All of a Sudden (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Fjord (PR: 4) (-5)

10. Dune: Part Three (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

The Invite

Elsinore

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 2) (E)

3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 4) (+1)

4. The Black Ball (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Digger (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Fatherland (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Werwulf (PR: 7) (E)

8. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 8) (E)

9. Behemoth! (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Disclosure Day (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sense and Sensbility (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Werwulf (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Michael (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (E)

7. Wuthering Heights (PR: 9) (+2)

8. The Devil Wears Prada 2 (PR: 8) (E)

9. I Love Boosters (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Mother Mary (PR: 10) (E)

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 4) (+1)

4. The Debut (PR: Not Ranked)

5. Behemoth! (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (-3)

7. Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (E)

8. The Invite (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Digger (PR: 9) (E)

10. You Can See Everything (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Ink

Fjord

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Werwulf (PR: 1) (E)

2. Digger (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Odyssey (PR: 6) (+3)

4. Wicker (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Michael (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Clayface (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (E)

8. Rose (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Elsinore (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Black Ball (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Obsession

Is God Is

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Behemoth! (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Disclosure Day (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 7) (+1)

7. The Debut (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Digger (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Werwulf (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Social Reckoning

Wildwood

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “This City May Have Chewed Me Up (But It Hasn’t Spit Me Out)” from The Debut (PR: 4) (+3)

2. “La Nieve” from The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. “I Knew It, I Knew You” from Toy Story 5 (PR: 1) (-2)

4. “By Any Means” from By Any Means (PR: 3) (-1)

5. “How to Write a Song (Without You)” from Power Ballad (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Let Me Sell You a Dream” from Musk (PR: Not Ranked)

7. “When I’m Home” from The Odyssey (PR: 6) (-1)

8. “Runway” from The Devil Wears Prada 2 (PR: 7) (-1)

9. “Chains of Love” from Wuthering Heights (PR: 9) (E)

10. “Save the Day” from Hoppers (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

TBD from Wildwood

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 2) (E)

3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Black Ball (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Backrooms (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Werwulf (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Digger (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 8) (E)

9. Wuthering Heights (PR: 9) (E)

10. Wild Horse Nine (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 2) (E)

3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Black Ball (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Behemoth! (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Michael (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Disclosure Day (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Werwulf (PR: 10) (+2)

9. The Debut (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Digger (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Whalefall

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Three (PR: 1) (E)

2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Odyssey (PR: 3) (E)

4. Whalefall (PR: 4) (E)

5. Spider-Man: Brand New Day (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Avengers: Doomsday (PR: 7) (+1)

7. The Sheep Detectives (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Godzilla Minus Zero (PR: 6) (-2)

9. The End of Oak Street (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Disclosure Day (PR: 10) (E)

That works out to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:

16 Nominations

The Odyssey

13 Nominations

The Black Ball

9 Nominations

Project Hail Mary

8 Nominations

The Debut

6 Nominations

The Invite, Wild Horse Nine

5 Nominations

All of a Sudden, Dune: Part Three

4 Nominations

Behemoth!

3 Nominations

Obsession

2 Nominations

Digger, Fjord, Michael, Toy Story 5, Werwulf

1 Nomination

American Doctor, Backrooms, Being Heumann, By Any Means, Club Kid, Disclosure Day, Ink, Elsinore, Iron Boy, Minotaur, NAZA, Once Upon a Time in Harlem, One in a Million, Possible Love, Power Ballad, Primetime, Ray Gunn, Rose, Sense and Sensibility, Spider-Man Brand New Day, Tangles, Whalefall, Wicker, Wildwood, You Can See Everything

Oscar Predictions: A Long Winter

Andrew Haigh has been a critics darling over the past decade plus with 45 Years, Lean on Pete, and All of Us Strangers. He’s yet to have a major Oscar breakout (though Charlotte Rampling was up in Actress for 45 Years). His latest is the coming-of-age drama A Long Winter which premiered at Telluride and soon moves to the Toronto and New York fests. Fred Hechinger, Kit Connor, Ebon Moss-Bachrach, Caitriona Balfe, and D’Pharaoh Woon-A-Tai make up the ensemble.

With Metacritic at 79, reviews are respectful but I don’t think they go far enough for this to contend in Best Picture. Hechinger and Balfe are receiving decent notices. However, Winter‘s only shot seems to be in Cinematography and I’m not convinced a major campaign will be mounted for it to sneak in. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Musk

Does Musk smell like an Oscar contender? The documentary is bound to be one of the higher profile genre entries of 2026 with Alex Gibney directing a near four hour look at Elon Musk, the world’s richest man and a lightning rod for controversy.

It premiered at the Venice Film Festival over the weekend and was a bit overshadowed by the unexpected debut of You Can See Everything, another buzzy doc that made a splash at Telluride. Rotten Tomatoes is at 100% with 77 on Metacritic.

Gibney’s Taxi to the Dark Side was the Documentary Feature victor in 2007 and he has helmed numerous acclaimed flicks on the big and small screen. Musk could definitely get in the five nominated docs, but I think it’s less likely than others like Once Upon a Time in Harlem and the aforementioned Everything.

Musk could miss Documentary Feature and still get into Original Song where David Byrne has written and sung the track “Let Me Sell You a Dream”. The former Talking Heads frontman is an Academy recipient for his score to 1987’s The Last Emperor and was nominated four years back in Original Song for “This Is a Life” from Everything Everywhere All at Once. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: You Can See Everything

The Telluride Film Festival was abuzz with word that a nearly three hour documentary screening would be unveiled yesterday from A24. That doc turned out to be You Can See Everything from Canadian comedian Nathan Fielder and Lance Oppenheim (also doing the fest circuit for directing Primetime).

In Everything, the filmmakers are granted access to Theranos founder Elizabeth Holmes in the weeks before she begins serving an 11 year prison sentence for fraud. While Holmes’s story and legal activity has been covered in an HBO doc and in the acclaimed limited series The Dropout with Amanda Seyfried, Everything received kudos at Telluride. It promises to be one of the highest profile docs of 2026 when it comes out in October.

The early WOM and anticipated wide exposure could certainly mean it grabs one of the five slots in Best Documentary Feature. I will warn that this branch of the Academy can be unpredictable. I’m not sure Everything is ahead of my current frontrunner Once Upon a Time in Harlem and perhaps not others like American Doctor. I am sure that it has one of the creepiest teasers I’ve witnessed that isn’t a horror flick. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: The Debut

Musical comedy The Debut is Jesse Eisenberg’s follow-up to 2024’s A Real Pain which was nominated for Best Original Screenplay and earned Kieran Culkin a Best Supporting Actor victory. It probably came awfully close to a Best Picture spot. Based on its Telluride premiere before its December 11th stateside release, The Debut‘s Oscar haul should be more substantial. Julianne Moore stars as a bored New Jersey housewife cast in a community theater production with Paul Giamatti as her challenging director. The supporting cast includes Eisenberg, Halle Bailey, Havana Rose Liu, and Bernadette Peters.

Distributed by A24 (who will have a busy season with The Invite and Primetime as well), early WOM is electric. Metacritic stands at 90 while the 8 RT write-ups are all fresh. Don’t be surprised if this is the studio’s most viable contender in several races. This is also the type of subject matter that should hold major appeal to the Academy.

That is especially true in Actress and Supporting Actor. Before the Telluride bow, I had Moore and Giamatti listed 1st in their respective derbies. Frankly, I felt more confident about Giamatti’s placement. There is an overdue factor with the veteran actor and this seemed like a perfect vehicle for recognition. He was likely close to win status in supporting for 2005’s Cinderella Man and lead for 2023’s The Holdovers. He could certainly maintain his pole position status in my next update.

Yet it’s Moore who is generating career best notices. She is going for her sixth nom from the Academy. After being up in supporting for 1997’s Boogie Nights, lead for The End of the Affair (1999) and Far from Heaven (2002), and supporting for 2002’s The Hours, Moore was a Best Actress winner for Still Alice in 2014. I basically had her as a placeholder in lead for The Debut, but Telluride buzz has shown her as a huge threat to make a second trip to the podium a few months down the line.

Eisenberg appears poised for another Original Screenplay shot while his inclusion in Best Director is more of a question mark. I do feel The Debut‘s reaction sets it up for a Best Picture slot. Editing, Casting, Original Score, and Original Song are also on the table. A24 is expected to tout a track titled “This City May Have Chewed Me Up (But It Hasn’t Spit Me Out)” sung by Moore and Peters. Eisenberg, Moore, and Giamatti are going to be busy on the awards circuit for the 99th ceremony and my Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Elsinore

Simon Stone’s Elsinore has premiered at Telluride prior to its Focus Features release on November 20th. Andrew Scott stars as actor Ian Charleston (best known for Best Picture winner Chariots of Fire from 1981) as he prepares to play Hamlet while suffering from AIDS. Olivia Colman plays his doctor with Billie Piper, Johnny Flynn, and Luke Thompson providing support.

The early RT rating is 90% with 79 on Metacritic. Scott is an Emmy, SAG Actor, and Golden Globe nominee who has yet to get a mention from the Academy. That could very well change with Elsinore. I’ve had him in my Best Actor quintet for a few weeks and don’t plan on dropping him. I recently put Colman in Supporting Actress. She could still make the cut though I’m less convinced she ends up with a spot.

Scott might be the sole nomination here as Original Screenplay seems iffy. Focus hopes that Scott’s momentum means recognition elsewhere (including BP) but I suspect I’ll only predict him in my next update. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Tender Loving Care

Legendary English auteur Mike Leigh has stated that Tender Loving Care is most likely his last feature film after a career of indie dramas. Several have garnered awards attention including seven personal mentions for his directing or screenwriting. Those nominations cover a quintet of pics: 1996’s Secrets & Lies, 1999’s Topsy-Turvy, Vera Drake from 2004, 2008’s Happy-Go-Lucky, and 2010’s Another Year. Leigh has yet to win.

Care stars Kate O’Flynn, Marion Bailey (Leigh’s real life partner), Paul Jesson, and Alice Bailey Johnson. Premiering at Telluride before moving to Toronto and New York, Bleecker Street is releasing it December 4th. Early reviews indicate this is a touching dramedy that would serve as a fine swan song to his career.

I’m not so sure the critical reaction is strong enough for this to be in the Best Picture conversation. O’Flynn and Bailey, in a best case scenario, could be chatted up in the Actress and Supporting Actress fields. The former is having a banner year with an acclaimed performance on Apple TV’s Widow’s Bay which could earn her an Emmy.

The likeliest scenario might be Leigh receiving his sixth and potentially final try in Original Screenplay and that being Care‘s sole nomination. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Bucking Fastard

Filmmaker Werner Herzog has been known more for his documentaries in recent years than fictional features. Yet he’s back in Venice (and then Telluride and Toronto) with the latter via Bucking Fastard. Real life sisters Rooney and Kate Mara headline as two siblings in the oddball drama where their characters share a rare emotional connection. Orlando Bloom and Domhnall Gleeson costar.

Herzog is known for eccentric tales and Fastard (with an eccentric title to boot) appears to fit that description. Critics are appreciating the work of the two leads while most reviews are more mixed on the picture itself. The Rotten Tomatoes rating is 68% with Metacritic at 58. This was never seen as much of an awards contender and reaction from Italy prove its chances are, well, bucked. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: By Any Means

Out this Labor Day weekend and not expected to make much of a box office splash is the historical crime drama By Any Means. It has quiet word-of-mouth and seems generic enough that I called it By All Means in my box office prediction post for it. Two or three days passed before I realized I had the wrong title. Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, Mark Wahlberg, Nicole Beharie, Josh Lucas, David Strathairn, and Giancarlo Esposito are among cast members.

To be fair, the reviews aren’t bad with 67% on Rotten Tomatoes and 56 on Metacritic. And perhaps it’ll bring in a larger than expected adult crowd over the holiday weekend. However, this was never seen as an awards player. That is… until a few days ago.

Enter Diane Warren. Oscar pundits know the name well. The prolific songwriter has been nominated 17 times for her original songs without a victory to show for it. That’s the most at bats without a home run. The Academy did give her an honorary statue in 2022. It was announced that Warren is behind the title track for Any, performed by the Isley Brothers and David Kushner. Warren currently stands at nine nominated tracks in a row dating back to 2017. Simply put, history indicates “By Any Means” could by all means become the 10th in succession. Once again, a win could be elusive. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Wild Horse Nine

Martin McDonagh’s last two features have received Best Picture and screenplay nominations and a combined seven acting mentions yielding two wins. 2017’s Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri had our Best Actress (Frances McDormand) and Supporting Actor (Sam Rockwell) victors with Woody Harrelson also up in supporting. The Banshees of Inisherin, while 0 for 4 in podium walks, saw Colin Farrell (Actor), Kerry Condon (Supporting Actress), and Brendan Gleeson and Barry Keoghan (Supporting Actor in contention) in the mix.

So it’s no surprise that Wild Horse Nine, the filmmaker’s latest black comedy, was considered a serious awards contender upon announcement. John Malkovich, Sam Rockwell, Steve Buscemi, Mariana di Girolamo, Ailín Salas, Tom Waits, and Parker Posey are in the ensemble. It has screened at Venice prior and moves to Telluride and Toronto before the November 6th theatrical bow.

Early word-of-mouth from Italy gives it an 83% Rotten Tomatoes rating and 79 on Metacritic. That’s not as high as Billboards or Banshees. However, the strongest reviews indicate this should be a third BP nominee in a row for McDonagh. Directing is more of a question mark while his original screenplay seems like a certainty. Down-the-line inclusion in Casting (a strong possibility), Film Editing, Cinematography, and Original Score are achievable.

One of the biggest question marks has been which performers will rise out of the group. Malkovich has been nominated in Supporting Actor twice – 42 years ago for The Killing Fields and 33 years ago for In the Line of Fire. It appears his first leading nom is coming based on buzz and he might be a threat to win. This is assuming Fox Searchlight campaigns for him there instead of supporting. Until I hear different, I’m making that assumption. Rockwell appears more poised to get attention in that race than Buscemi though it’s worth a reminder that both Banshees boys got in. As for the females providing support, a better than expected haul for Horse could sweep di Girolamo or Posey in. Yet I’m less convinced about both making the cut and I’ve had the former in my projected five since my initial predictions. That may change in my next update. What hasn’t changed is that Wild is an awards player as expected. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…