Tag: Telluride Film Festival

99th Academy Awards Predictions: August 2nd Edition

As we enter the month of August, the fall film festival trio of Venice, Telluride, and Toronto are about a month away. Those fests will dramatically reshape the Oscar race for the 99th ceremony. In the meantime, we have Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey racking up terrific box office numbers and continuing to solidify its status as an across-the-board awards player.

There are release date questions while one significant feature has moved to the 2027 calendar. Chloe Domont’s A Place in Hell with Michelle Williams and Daisy Edgar-Jones will come out next spring and that’s why you’ll see it in the dropped out menu in various races including Picture, Actress, Supporting Actress, and Original Screenplay. Tom Ford’s Cry to Heaven has yet to be dated and appears to be skipping festivals. I’ve made the decision to take it out of contention until a release is scheduled.

On the other hand, Elsinore with Andrew Scott and Olivia Colman from Simon Stone is confirmed to come out this year and it could certainly be a possibility for its stars and elsewhere.

We have a big development in Best Picture and elsewhere. Simply put, I’m skeptical about Digger. It could absolutely get back in the mix once eyeballs are on it. However, Digger drops and The Invite rises. The Digger fall also dramatically shapes the acting races with Tom Cruise plummeting from 1st to 6th in Best Actor. Maybe this will look foolish down the line, but it’s where I’m at now.

You can read all the movement below and expect the next update in two weeks!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)

4. White Horse Nine (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Debut (PR: 6) (+1)

6. Fjord (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Dune: Part Three (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Behemoth! (PR: 9) (+1)

9. The Invite (PR: 12) (+3)

10. Obsession (PR: 10) (E)

Other Possibilities:

11. Digger (PR: 5) (-6)

12. All of a Sudden (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Ink (PR: 13) (E)

14. The Social Reckoning (PR: 16) (+2)

15. Elsinore (PR: 21) (+6)

16. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 17) (+1)

17. Michael (PR: 20) (+3)

18. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 19) (+1)

19. Fatherland (PR: 18) (-1)

20. Werwulf (PR: Not Ranked)

21. Being Heumann (PR: 23) (+2)

22. Disclosure Day (PR: 24) (+2)

23. Josephine (PR: 25) (+2)

24. Artificial (PR: 22) (-2)

25. I Play Rocky (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

A Place in Hell

Cry to Heaven

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo, The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Cristian Mungiu, Fjord (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Olivia Wilde, The Invite (PR: 12) (+5)

8. Alejandro Gonzalez Iñárritu, Digger (PR: 4) (-4)

9. Tony Gilroy, Behemoth! (PR: 9) (E)

10. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden (PR: 10) (E)

11. Jesse Eisenberg, The Debut (PR: 11) (E)

12. Curry Barker, Obsession (PR: 9) (-3)

13. Danny Boyle, Ink (PR: 13) (E)

14. Pawel Pawlikowski, Fatherland (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Georgia Oakley, Sense and Sensibility (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Tom Ford, Cry to Heaven

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Julianne Moore, The Debut (PR: 1) (E)

2. Renate Reinsve, Fjord (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Inde Navarrette, Obsession (PR: 3) (E)

4. Olivia Wilde, The Invite (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Sandra Hüller, Rose (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Emily Blunt, Disclosure Day (PR: 11) (+2)

10. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann (PR: 12) (+2)

11. Sandra Hüller, Fatherland (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Léa Seydoux, Gentle Monster (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Sophie Okonedo, Clarissa (PR: 14) (E)

15. Rosalind Eleazar, Misty Green (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Michelle Williams, A Place in Hell

Mason Reeves, Josephine

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (+2)

2. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)

3. Matt Damon, The Odyssey (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Pedro Pascal, Behemoth! (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Andrew Scott, Elsinore (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Tom Cruise, Digger (PR: 1) (-5)

7. Sebastian Stan, Fjord (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Jaafar Jackson, Michael (PR: 8) (E)

9. Robert Pattinson, Primetime (PR: 9) (E)

10. Seth Rogen, The Invite (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Three (PR: 13) (+2)

12. John Turturro, The Only Living Pickpocket in New York (PR: 10) (-2)

13. Jack O’Connell, Ink (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Andrew Garfield, Artificial (PR: 11) (-3)

15. Javier Bardem, The Beloved (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Dominic Sessa, Tony

Nicholas Hoult, Cry to Heaven

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Mariana Di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Penélope Cruz, The Invite (PR: 6) (+3)

4. Lola Dueñas, The Black Ball (PR: 10) (+6)

5. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Penélope Cruz, The Black Ball (PR: 3) (-3)

7. Olivia Colman, Elsinore (PR: 12) (+5)

8. Tao Okamoto, All of a Sudden (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Samantha Morton, The Odyssey (PR: 14) (+4)

11. Sandra Hüller, Digger (PR: 4) (-7)

12. Esmé Creed-Miles, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 15) (+3)

13. Eva Victor, Behemoth! (PR: 11) (-2)

14. Claire Foy, Ink (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Scarlett Johansson, Paper Tiger (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Daisy Edgar-Jones, A Place in Hell

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Paul Giamatti, The Debut (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Edward Norton, The Invite (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Guy Pearce, Ink (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. John Leguizamo, The Odyssey (PR: 12) (+6)

7. Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning (PR: 7) (E)

8. John Goodman, Digger (PR: 2) (-6)

9. Robert Pattinson, The Odyssey (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Colman Domingo, Michael (PR: 8) (-2)

11. Guitarricadelafuente, The Black Ball (PR: 11) (E)

12. Mark Ruffalo, Being Heumann (PR: 14) (+2)

13. James Ortiz, Project Hail Mary (PR: 13) (E)

14. Riz Ahmed, Digger (PR: 9) (-5)

15. Channing Tatum, Josephine (PR: 15) (E)

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Debut (PR: 2) (E)

3. Fjord (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Obsession (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Behemoth! (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Digger (PR: 2) (-3)

7. Elsinore (PR: 11) (+4)

8. Club Kid (PR: 8) (E)

9. Artificial (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Primetime (PR: 9) (-1)

11. The Drama (PR: 13) (+2)

12. Fatherland (PR: 12) (E)

13 . I Play Rocky (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Josephine (PR: 14) (E)

15. Misty Green (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

A Place in Hell

The Only Living Pickpocket in New York

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Black Ball (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Invite (PR: 4) (+2)

3. The Odyssey (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (-1)

5. All of a Sudden (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Ink (PR: 6) (E)

7. Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (E)

8. The Social Reckoning (PR: 8) (E)

9. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 9) (E)

10. Being Heumann (PR: 12) (+2)

11. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 11) (E)

12. Prima Facie (PR: 14) (+2)

13. A Long Winter (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Minotaur (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Wildwood (PR: 13) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Cry to Heaven

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Black Ball (PR: 1) (E)

2. Fjord (PR: 2) (E)

3. All of a Sudden (PE: 3) (E)

4. Minotaur (PR: 4) (E)

5. Possible Love (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Fatherland (PR: 6) (E)

7. Coward (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Rose (PR: 7) (-1)

9. The Beloved (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Mimesis (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wildwood (PR: 1) (E)

2. Toy Story 5 (PR: 2) (E)

3. Ray Gunn (PR: 3) (E)

4. Forgotten Island (PR: 4) (E)

5. Tangles (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Hoppers (PR: 6) (E)

7. In Waves (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Shaun the Sheep: The Beast of Mossy Bottom (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Iron Boy (PR: 9) (E)

10. Hexed (PR: 10) (E)

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Once Upon a Time in Harlem (PR: 1) (E)

2. 14th (PR: 2) (E)

3. One in a Million (PR: 3) (E)

4. To Hold a Mountain (PR: 5) (+1)

5. American Doctor (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Nuisance Bear (PR: 6) (E)

7. Closure (PR: Not Ranked)

8. The History of Concrete (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Everybody to Kenmure Street (PR: Not Ranked)

10. When a Witness Recants (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Rehearsals for a Revolution

Time and Water

Best Casting

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Fjord (PR: 4) (E)

5. Michael (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Invite (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Dune: Part Three (PR: 10) (+3)

8. The Debut (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Digger (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Being Heumann (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Obsession

Best Cinemtography

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Black Ball (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Digger (PR: 4) (E)

5. Fatherland (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (-3)

7. Werwulf (PR: 7) (E)

8. Ink (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 9) (E)

10. Behemoth! (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Cry to Heaven

Disclosure Day

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 3) (E)

4. Werwulf (PR: 4) (E)

5. Michael (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (E)

7. I Love Boosters (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Wuthering Heights (PR: 8) (E)

9. The Devil Wears Prada 2 (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Mother Mary (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Cry to Heaven

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)

4. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Behemoth! (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Digger (PR: 4) (-3)

8. The Invite (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Fjord (PR: 8) (-1)

10. The Debut (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Digger (PR: 1) (E)

2. Werwulf (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Odyssey (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Clayface (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Wicker (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Michael (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Rose (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Is God Is (PR: 10) (-1)

10. The Bride! (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

The Black Ball

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Black Ball (PR: 3) (E)

4. Behemoth! (PR: 4) (E)

5. Disclosure Day (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (E)

7. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 7) (E)

8. Digger (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Ink (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Social Reckoning (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Werwulf

Wildwood

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “I Knew It, I Knew You” from Toy Story 5 (PR: 1) (E)

2. TBD from The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. “La Playa” from The Black Ball (PR: 4) (+1)

4. TBD from The Debut (PR: 3) (-1)

5. “How to Write a Song (Without You)” from Power Ballad (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. “When I’m Home” from The Odyssey (PR: Not Ranked)

7. “Runway” from The Devil Wears Prada 2 (PR: 6) (-1)

8. “Shape of a Woman” from The Devil Wears Prada 2 (PR: Not Ranked)

9. “Chains of Love” from Wuthering Heights (PR: 9) (E)

10. “Save the Day” from Hoppers (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

TBD from The Odyssey

TBD from Wildwood

TBD from The Rivals of Amziah King

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 2) (E)

3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)

4. Werwulf (PR: 5) (+1)

5. The Black Ball (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Digger (PR: 6) (E)

7. Backrooms (PR: 7) (E)

8. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 8) (E)

9. Wuthering Heights (PR: 10) (+1)

10. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Cry to Heaven

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Three (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Odyssey (PR: 2) (E)

3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)

4. Behemoth! (PR: 8) (+4)

5. Michael (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Black Ball (PR: 6) (E)

7. Whalefall (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Disclosure Day (PR: 4) (-4)

9. Digger (PR: 9) (E)

10. Werwulf (PR: 10) (E)

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Three (PR: 1) (E)

2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Odyssey (PR: 3) (E)

4. Godzilla Minus Zero (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Whalefall (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Avengers: Doomsday (PR: 6) (E)

7. The End of Oak Street (PR: 8) (+1)

8. The Sheep Detectives (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Spider-Man: Brand New Day (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Disclosure Day (PR: 7) (-3)

Dropped Out:

The Mandalorian and Grogu

That equates to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:

14 Nominations

The Odyssey

13 Nominations

The Black Ball

10 Nominations

Project Hail Mary

9 Nominations

Wild Horse Nine

6 Nominations

Behemoth!, Fjord

5 Nominations

Dune: Part Three, The Invite

3 Nominations

Michael, Obsession, Werwulf

2 Nominations

All of a Sudden, Digger, Toy Story 5

1 Nomination

14th, American Doctor, Clayface, Disclosure Day, Elsinore, Fatherland, Forgotten Island, Godzilla Minus Zero, Ink, Minotaur, Once Upon a Time in Harlem, One in a Million, Possible Love, Power Ballad, Ray Gunn, Rose, Sense and Sensibility, Tangles, To Hold a Mountain, Whalefall, Wicker, Wildwood

99th Academy Awards Predictions: July 5th Edition

Happy 250th birthday weekend, America! And what better way to celebrate than with fresh Oscar predictions now that we’ve surpassed the midway point of 2026. That means I’m expanding my forecasts from 8 categories (Picture, Director, the four acting derbies, the two screenplays contests) to all 21 races covering feature-length motion pictures.

This is the first glimpse at how many overall nominations I believe the hopefuls will generate. It arrives approximately two months before the fall festival season (Venice, Toronto, Telluride) kicks into gear. That trio of fests will undoubtedly alter the landscape of contenders and pretenders.

When I do my next predictions, Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey will be out. We will have a much better ide whether it deserves the perch atop Best Picture and Director and elsewhere. As soon as reviews drop, look for my individual Oscar Predictions post with the next full update likely arriving on July 19th.

I’ve put Inde Navarrette’s work in Obsession back in lead Actress as opposed to Supporting Actress. The studio could place it in either as we await word on their strategy. As of now, I feel her performance could materialize in both races. I’m also placing all performers from The Black Ball in supporting until that is clarified.

I’m keeping my BP listings at 25 and the seven top line races that I’ve previously covered at 15 possibilities. For the other competitions, I am listing 10 possibilities.

Let’s get to it, shall we?

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Digger (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (-2)

6. Fjord (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Debut (PR: 7) (E)

8. Dune: Part Three (PR: 8) (E)

9. Obsession (PR: 9) (E)

10. Cry to Heaven (PR: 10) (E)

Other Possibilities:

11. All of a Sudden (PR: 14) (+3)

12. Behemoth! (PR: 16) (+4)

13. The Social Reckoning (PR: 12) (-1)

14. A Place in Hell (PR: 11) (-3)

15. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 13) (-2)

16. Fatherland (PR: 15) (-1)

17. The Invite (PR: 17) (E)

18. Artificial (PR: Not Ranked)

19. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 19) (E)

20. Disclosure Day (PR: 20) (E)

21. Michael (PR: 24) (+3)

22. Josephine (PR: 21) (-1)

23. Being Heumann (PR: Not Ranked)

24. Jack of Spades (PR: 22) (-2)

25. Werwulf (PR: 18) (-7)

Dropped Out:

Saturn Return

Club Kid

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo, The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Digger (PR: 3) (E)

4. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (E)

5. Cristian Mungiu, Fjord (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 6) (E)

7. Curry Barker, Obsession (PR: 7) (E)

8. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Tom Ford, Cry to Heaven (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden (PR: 10) (E)

11. Jesse Eisenberg, The Debut (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Pawel Pawlikowski, Fatherland (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Tony Gilroy, Behemoth! (PR: 15) (+2)

14. Chloe Domont, A Place in Hell (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Georgia Oakley, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 14) (-1)

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Michelle Williams, A Place in Hell (PR: 1) (E)

2. Julianne Moore, The Debut (PR: 2) (E)

3. Renate Reinsve, Fjord (PR: 3) (E)

4. Inde Navarrette, Obsession (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from Supporting Actress

5. Sandra Hüller, Rose (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Emily Blunt, Disclosure Day (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie (PR: 9) (E)

10. Sandra Hüller, Fatherland (PR: 8) (-2)

11. Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 7) (-4)

12. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Sophie Okonedo, Clarissa (PR: 13) (E)

14. Mason Reeves, Josephine (PR: 12) (-2)

15. Olivia Wilde, The Invite (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Penélope Cruz, Bunker

Zendaya, The Drama

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Tom Cruise, Digger (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)

3. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Sebastian Stan, Fjord (PR: 4) (E)

5. Matt Damon, The Odyssey (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Pedro Pascal, Behemoth! (PR: 7) (+1)

7. John Turturro, The Only Living Pickpocket in New York (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Jaafar Jackson, Michael (PR: 8) (E)

9. Andrew Garfield, Artificial (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Robert Pattinson, Primetime (PR: 10) (E)

11. Nicholas Hoult, Cry to Heaven (PR: 9) (-2)

12. Andrew Scott, Elsinore (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Rami Malek, The Man I Love (PR: 13) (E)

14. Dominic Sessa, Tony (PR: 11) (-3)

15. Javier Bardem, The Beloved (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Guitarricadelafuente, The Black Ball – moved to Supporting Actor

Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Three

Hanns Zischler, Fatherland

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mariana Di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (E)

2. Penélope Cruz, The Black Ball (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Sandra Hüller, Digger (PR: 10) (+7)

4. Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Daisy Edgar-Jones, A Place in Hell (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Penélope Cruz, The Invite (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Tao Okamoto, All of a Sudden (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Esmé Creed-Miles, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 5) (-4)

10. Samantha Morton, The Odyssey (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 11) (E)

12. Halle Bailey, The Debut (PR: 12) (E)

13. Lola Dueñas, The Black Ball (PR: 13) (E)

14. Scarlett Johansson, Paper Tiger (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Elizabeth Debicki, The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 14) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Inde Navarrette, Obsession (moved to lead Actress)

Gemma Chan, Josephine

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Paul Giamatti, The Debut (PR: 1) (E)

2. John Goodman, Digger (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Robert Pattinson, The Odyssey (PR: 4) (E)

5. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Riz Ahmed, Digger (PR: 6) (E)

7. Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning (PR: 7) (E)

8. Edward Norton, The Invite (PR: 11) (+3)

9. Colman Domingo, Michael (PR: 13) (+4)

10. James Ortiz, Project Hail Mary (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Channing Tatum, Josephine (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Andrew Scott, A Place in Hell (PR: 8) (-4)

13. Mark Ruffalo, Being Heumann (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Guittaricadelafuente, The Black Ball (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from lead Actor

15. Jesse Plemons, Digger (PR: 10) (-5)

Dropped Out:

Milo Quifes, The Black Ball

Miguel Bernardeau, The Black Ball

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (E)

2. Digger (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Debut (PR: 3) (E)

4. Fjord (PR: 4) (E)

5. Obsession (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Behemoth! (PR: 7) (+1)

7. A Place in Hell (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Artificial (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Club Kid (PR: 8) (-1)

10. The Only Living Pickpocket in New York (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Jack of Spades (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Primetime (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Fatherland (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Josephine (PR: 11) (-3)

15. The Drama (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Saturn Return

Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Miasma

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Black Ball (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Odyssey (PR: 2) (E)

3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)

4. All of a Sudden (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Invite (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Cry to Heaven (PR: 7) (+1)

7. The Social Reckoning (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Dune: Part Three (PR: 10) (+2)

9. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 9) (E)

10. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 8) (-2)

11. Being Heumann (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Prima Facie (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Wildwood (PR: 15) (+2)

14. Minotaur (PR: 13) (-1)

15. A Long Winter (PR: 14) (-1)

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Black Ball

2. Fjord

3. All of a Sudden

4. Minotuar

5. Coward

Other Possibilities:

6. Fatherland

7. Possible Love

8. Mimesis

9. Rose

10. The Beloved

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wildwood

2. Toy Story 5

3. Ray Gunn

4. Tangles

5. Hoppers

Other Possibilities:

6. In Waves

7. Forgotten Island

8. Shaun the Sheep: The Beast of Mossy Bottom

9. Iron Boy

10. Minions & Monsters

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Once Upon a Time in Harlem

2. Nuisance Bear

3. To Hold a Mountain

4. The History of Concrete

5. When a Witness Recants

Other Possibilities:

6. American Doctor

7. One in a Million

8. Time and Water

9. Rehearsals for a Revolution

10. Everybody to Kenmure Street

Best Casting

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey

2. The Black Ball

3. Wild Horse Nine

4. Digger

5. Michael

Other Possibilities:

6. Fjord

7. The Debut

8. Dune: Part Three

9. Cry to Heaven

10. Behemoth!

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey

2. Project Hail Mary

3. Dune: Part Three

4. The Black Ball

5. Digger

Other Possibilities:

6. Cry to Heaven

7. Fatherland

8. Werwulf

9. Disclosure Day

10. Jack of Spades

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey

2. The Black Ball

3. Sense and Sensibility

4. Cry to Heaven

5. Dune: Part Three

Other Possibilities:

6. Werwulf

7. The Devil Wears Prada 2

8. Jack of Spades

9. Wuthering Heights

10. I Love Boosters

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey

2. The Black Ball

3. Digger

4. Project Hail Mary

5. Wild Horse Nine

Other Possibilities:

6. Dune: Part Three

7. Cry to Heaven

8. Fjord

9. Obsession

10. Behemoth!

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Digger

2. Werwulf

3. The Odyssey

4. Clayface

5. Michael

Other Possibilities:

6. The Black Ball

7. Dune: Part Three

8. Cry to Heaven

9. The Bride!

10. Madden

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey

2. The Black Ball

3. Project Hail Mary

4. Disclosure Day

5. Cry to Heaven

Other Possibilities:

6. Dune: Part Three

7. Digger

8. Wild Horse Nine

9. Wildwood

10. The Social Reckoning

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “I Knew It, I Knew You” from Toy Story 5

2. TBD from The Black Ball

3. TBD from The Debut

4. “La Playa” from The Black Ball

5. “How to Write a Song (Without You)” from Power Ballad

Other Possibilities:

6. “Runway” from The Devil Wears Prada 2

7. “Chains of Love” from Wuthering Heights

8. TBD from Hexed

9. “Save the Day” from Hoppers

10. TBD from The Rivals of Amziah King

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey

2. Project Hail Mary

3. Dune: Part Three

4. The Black Ball

5. Cry to Heaven

Other Possibilities:

6. Digger

7. Werwulf

8. Jack of Spades

9. The Adventures of Cliff Booth

10. Backrooms

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Three

2. The Odyssey

3. Project Hail Mary

4. The Black Ball

5. Michael

Other Possibilities:

6. Disclosure Day

7. Cry to Heaven

8. Digger

9. Werwulf

10. Obsession

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Three

2. Project Hail Mary

3. The Odyssey

4. Godzilla Minus Zero

5. Whalefall

Other Possibilities:

6. Avengers: Doomsday

7. Disclosure Day

8. Wildwood

9. The End of Oak Street

10. The Sheep Detectives

And that works out to my inaugural tally showing these movies generating these numbers of nominations:

14 Nominations

The Black Ball, The Odyssey

10 Nominations

Digger, White Horse Nine

9 Nominations

Project Hail Mary

6 Nominations

Dune: Part Three, Fjord

5 Nominations

The Debut

4 Nominations

Cry to Heaven

3 Nominations

Michael, Obsession

2 Nominations

All of a Sudden, A Place in Hell, Toy Story 5

1 Nomination

Clayface, Coward, Disclosure Day, Godzilla Minus Zero, The History of Concrete, Hoppers, The Invite, Minotaur, Nuisance Bear, Once Upon a Time in Harlem, Power Ballad, Ray Gunn, Rose, Sense and Sensibility, Tangles, To Hold a Mountain, Werwulf, Whalefall, When a Witness Recants. Wildwood

Oscar Predictions: Tuner

Daniel Roher’s 2022 documentary Navalny made waves with Oscar voters by winning the top prize for its genre. The filmmaker ventures into fictional storytelling with the crime thriller Tuner this weekend. Leo Woodall stars as a piano tuner whose skillset brings him into the world of safecracking. Costars include Havana Rose Liu, Lior Raz, Tovah Feldshuh, Jean Reno, and Dustin Hoffman. Out in limited fashion this weekend, Tuner was first screened last fall at the Telluride and Toronto fests.

With 95% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 69 Metacritic, critics are kind to the caper. This doesn’t seem like an awards contender, but an exception could be made if Black Bear Pictures mounts an effective campaign in Best Sound. It’s a major part of the plot and the Academy could reward the sonic design. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

99th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Picture

And we are off to the races with my first Oscar predictions for the 99th Academy Awards.

We are not a month removed from the 98th ceremony so let us begin some ridiculously early speculation! These are my inaugural glimpses at the four acting derbies, Director, and Picture. They have been unfolding on the blog over the last few days. I already posted my takes for the acting races and director and they can be accessed here:

99th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Director
99th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Actress
99th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Actor
99th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Supporting Actress
99th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Supporting Actor

That brings us to the biggest race of all – Best Picture. When I did my first projections for BP for the 98th ceremony back in April of 2025, I correctly named 80% of the eventual contenders among the five nominated pics or in other possibilities. Hamnet, Marty Supreme, and Sentimental Value were rightly projected to make the cut. Eventual winner One Battle After Another along with Bugonia, F1, Frankenstein, and Sinners were listed in other possibilities. The Secret Agent and Train Dreams were not mentioned at that early juncture.

Let’s get some caveats out of the way… it’s early. Some movies listed are likely to be pushed back or simply not turn out to be awards contenders. Others will rise up through the festival system at Cannes, Telluride, Toronto, and Venice.

This premiere post assumes that one pic already in release has reserved a spot and that’s box office juggernaut Project Hail Mary. It could be joined by another likely mega earner in Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey. Foreign fare such as All of a Sudden, Fatherland, and Fjord (all premiering at Cannes) are also on my radar.

My initial ranked predictions in the six major races (as well as the screenplay competitions) will be posted soon. In the meantime, here’s the first glimpse at BP.

TODD’S FIRST OSCAR PREDICTIONS FOR BEST PICTURE AT THE 99TH ACADEMY AWARDS

All of a Sudden

Cry to Heaven

Digger

Fatherland

Fjord

Ink

No One Cares

The Odyssey

Project Hail Mary

Wild Horse Nine

Other Possibilities:

The Adventures of Cliff Booth

Behemoth!

Being Heumann

Dune: Part Three

Jack of Spades

Josephine

A Long Winter

Narnia: The Magician’s Nephew

Paper Tiger

A Place in Hell

Saturn Return

The Social Reckoning

Tony

Toy Story 5

Werwulf

Oscar Predictions: Hamlet

After premiering last fall at the Telluride and Toronto Film Festivals, the latest cinematic version of Hamlet hits stateside venues this weekend. Aneil Karia helms a contemporary retelling of William Shakespeare’s tragedy with Riz Ahmed in the title role. Costars include Morfydd Clark, Joe Alwyn, Sheeba Chaddra, Art Malik, and Timothy Spall.

Critical reaction is varied with a 73% Rotten Tomatoes rating and 59 on Metacritic. A 2020 Best Actor nominee for Sound of Metal, Ahmed is getting some solid ink. However, the high likelihood is that awards chatter for this Hamnet is not to be. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: I Love Boosters

It might be Oscar weekend, but it’s also time for South by Southwest which is premiering numerous movies and TV shows. The Austin fest isn’t really a breeding ground for eventual Academy fare though 2022’s BP winner Everything Everywhere All at Once did kick off there.

SXSW is known more for showcasing odder and independent spirited movies. The Oscar bait usually saves itself for Venice, Telluride, and Toronto. Nevertheless Boots Riley’s I Love Boosters is an eagerly awaited title that served as opening selection.

This is the rapper and political activist turned filmmaker’s sophomore feature after his acclaimed 2018 debut Sorry to Bother You. The satire centers on a group of shoplifters boasts an eclectic cast including Keke Palmer, Naomi Ackie, Taylour Paige, Poppy Liu, Eiza González, LaKeith Stanfield, Will Poulter, Don Cheadle, and Demi Moore.

Early buzz indicates Riley has another critical hit with 100% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 75 Metacritic. Reviews also infer that it’s far out there similar to Bother. Perhaps Original Screenplay could be in play at the Oscars, but this might be more tailored to the Independent Spirit Awards or the Gothams (two ceremonies where Riley’s inaugural effort showed up). My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: H Is for Hawk

H Is for Hawk is based on an acclaimed 2014 memoir by Helen MacDonald with Claire Foy playing the author. Philippa Lowthorne directs the drama with a supporting cast including Brendan Gleeson, Denise Gough, Sam Spruell, and Lindsay Duncan. Slated for domestic distribution by Roadside Attractions in December, Hawk has already played the Telluride and London festivals.

Rotten Tomatoes is at 82% based on the few reviews out. While write-ups for the film are more on the positive with reservations side, Foy is being lauded. The Emmy winner for The Crown likely came very close to an Academy nom in Supporting Actress for 2018’s First Man. However, Roadside is not known for attracting awards voters in their campaigns. I’ve yet to have Foy in my top 10 possibilities for lead Actress. Unless precursors surprisingly start including her, don’t expect that to change. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

98th Academy Awards: The State of the Best Actress Race (October Edition)

Instead of writing a full update on my Oscar predictions this week, I’m doing a deep dive on the six highest profile races: Picture, Director and the four acting derbies. Best Actor and the supporting fields have been covered. If you missed my write-ups on them, please find them here:

98th Academy Awards: The State of the Best Actor Race (October Edition)
98th Academy Awards: The State of the Supporting Actress Race (October Edition)
98th Academy Awards: The State of the Supporting Actor Race (October Edition)

I published my first preview of the lead Actress field on April 11th. In that post, I listed my initial predictions for the quintet of hopefuls along with ten other possibilities. At that impossibly early stage of the game, my selections were:

Jessie Buckley, Hamnet

Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good

Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value

Julia Roberts, After the Hunt

Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee

Other Possibilities:

Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You

Olivia Colman, The Roses

Jodie Foster, A Private Life

Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night

Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love

Lucy Liu, Rosemead

Emma Mackey, Ella McCay

June Squibb, Eleanor the Great

Emma Stone, Bugonia

Tessa Thompson, Hedda

What’s pretty amazing is how viable many of these contenders still are. In fact, it wouldn’t be totally crazy for my initial quintet to still be the final quintet. I believe there’s an excellent shot that 80% of them get in. Before we get to them, let’s dispense with the other possibilities that are no longer possibilities, shall we?

Olivia Colman (The Roses) and Jodie Foster (A Private Life) have OK chances to make the cut at the Globes in lead Actress in a Musical/Comedy. However, the former Oscar winners will not be returning to that ceremony. I’d say the same for June Squibb as Eleanor the Great drew mixed notices from critics and was a non-factor at the box office. Then there’s Jessica Lange. It seems like Long Day’s Journey Into Night is always about to come out, but never does. I’ve had her listed as a possibility in 2023 and 2024 and now 2025 and there’s still no release date. Perhaps she’ll pop up again for 2026.

Emma Mackey’s work for December’s Ella McCay is still unseen. The fact that it skipped autumn festivals could be telling, but you never know. Lucy Liu’s performance in Rosemead has been heralded at fests and distributor Vertical should push her as they picked up distribution rights for a December bow. I’m just not convinced it’ll get enough eyeballs for her to truly contend.

The other nine actresses among the 15 above are very much worthy of discussion, along with a couple others. That discussion begins (and ultimately could end) with Jessie Buckley in Hamnet. As Agnes Shakespeare, wife to the famed playwright in Chloé Zhao’s historical drama, she drew raves at Telluride and Toronto. Slated for wide release in December, the pic should garner multiple noms and Buckley is in the pole position for a victory.

Her biggest competition could be Renate Reinsve from another fest favorite Sentimental Value. I had her at #1 for awhile until Hamnet was unveiled.

While it’s still unseen, Cynthia Erivo could make it two in a row with the second part of Wicked and once again join her costar Ariana Grande (in supporting) as a nominee.

And while the movie itself drew divergent reactions, Amanda Seyfried was widely praised for The Testament of Ann Lee and Searchlight seems poised to mount a spirited campaign.

All four were in my inaugural April predictions. All four still are at the moment. The one that’s not is Julia Roberts in After the Hunt despite her being on top when I did my first ranked projections a few months ago. Since then, Hunt has been hindered plenty of negative reviews and poor box office. It’s not unthinkable for the 2000 Best Actress recipient to make the cut though it is a more remote possibility at this juncture.

Of the other possibilities from April, four still are. I could easily give two-time winner Emma Stone the spot. A Bugonia BP nom would help. The Academy could also feel like she’s been honored enough.

Rose Byrne has never been nominated for an Oscar and she’s getting career best notices for If I Had Legs I’d Kick You. Precursor attention and critics groups trophies could put her in.

Jennifer Lawrence (Die, My Love) and Tessa Thompson (Hedda) face trickier odds and if either got in, it’d be considered an upset right now. That dynamic could shift if the Globes/Critics Choice/SAG start naming either of them.

When it comes to names not mentioned in the initial 15, Sydney Sweeney has many critics saying she delivers in the boxing biopic Christy. Her chances could be KO’d by middling reviews for the pic itself.

Eva Victor (Sorry, Baby) got her flowers at Sundance and beyond. She would need precursors to gain any momentum.

There are two actresses not in the April mix that certainly are now. Chase Infiniti will be campaigned in lead for One Battle After Another which could become the next BP. The Warner Bros announcement that Infinti (in her first feature film role) is going for Actress and not Supporting Actress has caused many prognosticators to shift their thinking. She’s far from automatic (or close to it) like her costars Leonardo DiCaprio, Sean Penn, and Teyana Taylor but she could find herself joining them on the red carpet.

Finally, Kate Hudson was up 25 years ago in supporting for Almost Famous. Her role in the forthcoming Song Sung Blue is rumored to be an Oscar-baity part. We’ll know more tomorrow when it screens at the AFI Fest.

My in-depth look at the big races will continue with Best Director!

Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere Box Office Prediction

20th Century Studios hopes that Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere has a glorious first three days at the box office when it drops October 24th. Centered around the making of his 1982 album Nebraska, Jeremy Allen White plays the title character with Jeremy Strong as longtime manager Jon Landau. Scott Cooper directs the musical bio with a supporting cast including Paul Walter Hauser, Stephen Graham, Odessa Young, Gaby Hoffman, Marc Maron and David Krumholtz.

Nowhere was first seen at the Telluride Film Festival where it managed to generate awards chatter, especially for White (who’s won multiple honors for his TV work on The Bear). Overall reviews were somewhat tempered in their praise with 72% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 65 Metacritic.

Last year, A Complete Unknown (from the 20th Century umbrella under Searchlight) struck a chord with viewers to tune of $75 million. That biopic of Bob Dylan with Timothée Chalamet seemed to have more buzz prior to its release. Some estimates have Nowhere reaching $20-25 million, but I’m thinking mid teens is where its ends up.

Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere opening weekend prediction: $16.1 million

For my Regretting You prediction, click here:

Regretting You Box Office Prediction

For my Chainsaw Man – The Movie: Reze Arc prediction, click here:

Chainsaw Man – The Movie: Reze Arc Box Office Prediction

98th Academy Awards Predictions: October 5th Edition

As they always do, the trilogy of late summer/early fall festivals in Venice, Toronto and Telluride tremendously shaped the Oscar landscape a few weeks ago. The in-progress New York fest has a smaller imprint, but we did see the premiere of Ronan Day-Lewis’s Anemone before its semi-wide release this weekend. Starring his three-time Oscar winning father Daniel, the screenings keep him in the convo for Best Actor while its Picture, Director and Original Screenplay possibilities fell by the wayside. If its lead were to make the cut in the Actor quintet, he could bring costars Sean Bean and Samantha Morton with him in the supporting fields. However, I think that’s a long shot.

New York’s closer is Is This Thing On? from Bradley Cooper. His two other behind the camera works (A Star Is Born, Maestro) were both BP contenders. When I do my next update, we’ll know its viability in all races from BP to the acting contests for Will Arnett, Laura Dern and Cooper himself.

In other news, Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another performed respectably though didn’t surpass expectations in its box office debut. I still believe ranking it 1st in BP, Director and Adapted Screenplay is the right play with its terrific reviews. Benicio del Toro pops up in the top 10 for Supporting Actor though it could be a stretch for both him and Sean Penn to get in. That said, Teyana Taylor and Chase Infiniti are both viable in Supporting Actress. In fact, I’m elevating Infiniti for the first time in that race with Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass (Sentimental Value) now on the outside.

In a best case scenario, Battle could see five of its performers up for gold (with Leonardo DiCaprio in lead Actor). Nine pictures have managed that feat in Oscar history: 1942’s Mrs. Miniver, All About Eve from 1950, 1953’s From Here to Eternity, 1954’s On the Waterfront, 1957’s Peyton Place, 1963’s Tom Jones, 1967’s Bonnie and Clyde, 1974’s The Godfather Part II, and Network from 1976, Worth noting is that it’s been almost half a century since it last happened.

Another newcomer this weekend is Benny Safdie’s The Smashing Machine and it is struggling mightily at the box office. With more reviews out that are far from raves, I’m more skeptical that Dwayne Johnson or Emily Blunt get nominated. The best bet for inclusion is Makeup and Hairstyling and I’m not even convinced it gets in there.

Bugonia has fallen out of my BP top ten with Avatar: Fire and Ash returning to the lineup. This could be temporary, but we’ll see how the reaction to Yorgos Lanthimos’s latest is when it debuts later this month.

There’s a change in Best Actor with George Clooney as Jay Kelly returning to the projected quintet and Jesse Plemons (Bugonia) dropping.

You can read all the movement below!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. One Battle After Another (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Sinners (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Hamnet (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Sentimental Value (PR: 4) (E)

5. Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (E)

6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (E)

7. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Jay Kelly (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 11) (+2)

10. No Other Choice (PR: 10) (E)

Other Possibilities:

11. Bugonia (PR: 7) (-4)

12. Frankenstein (PR: 12) (E)

13. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 13) (E)

14. A House of Dynamite (PR: 14) (E)

15. Is This Thing On? (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Rental Family

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

3. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PR: 3) (E)

4. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia (PR: 8) (E)

9. Kathryn Bigelow, A House of Dynamite (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 1) (E)

2. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)

3. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (E)

4. Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 6) (E)

7. Julia Roberts, After the Hunt (PR: 7) (E)

8. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 8) (E)

9. Tessa Thompson, Hedda (PR: 9) (E)

10. Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Sydney Sweeney, Christy

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)

2. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)

3. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 3) (E)

4. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 4) (E)

5. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine (PR: 8) (-2)

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)

2. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)

3. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (PR: 3) (E)

4. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Amy Madigan, Weapons (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine (PR: 6) (-3)

10. Glenn Close, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)

3. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (PR: 3) (E)

4. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jeremy Strong, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (PR: 6) (E)

7. Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Akira Emoto, Rental Family (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked: For Good (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Andrew Garfield, After the Hunt

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

3. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)

4. Jay Kelly (PR: 4) (E)

5. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sorry, Baby (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Is This Thing On? (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from Adapted Screenplay

8. Blue Moon (PR: 8) (E)

9. The Secret Agent (PR: 9) (E)

10. Rental Family (PR: 6) (-4)

Dropped Out:

A House of Dynamite

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)

2. Hamnet (PR: 2) (E)

3. Bugonia (PR: 3) (E)

4. No Other Choice (PR: 4) (E)

5. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 6) (E)

7. Train Dreams (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Wicked: For Good (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Frankenstein (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Hedda (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Is This Thing On? – moved to Original Screenplay

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

2. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 2) (E)

3. No Other Choice (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Secret Agent (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Voice of Hind Rajab (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sirât (PR: 6) (E)

7. Left-Handed Girl (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Sound of Falling (PR: 7) (-1)

9. The President’s Cake (PR: 9) (E)

10. The Love That Remains (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

My Father’s Shadow

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 1) (E)

2. Zootopia 2 (PR: 2) (E)

3. Arco (PR: 3) (E)

4. Elio (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Scarlet (PR: 7) (+1)

7. A Magnificent Life (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Ne Zha 2 (PR: 8) (E)

9. In Your Dreams (PR: 9) (E)

10. Animal Farm (PR: 10) (E)

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Perfect Neighbor (PR: 1) (E)

2. 2000 Meters to Andrivka (PR: 2) (E)

3. Mr. Nobody Against Putin (PR: 3) (E)

4. Cover-Up (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Put Your Soul on Your Hand and Walk (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Seeds (PR: 6) (E)

7. Cutting Through Rocks (PR: 10) (+3)

8. The Eyes of Ghana (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Orwell: 2 + 2 = 5 (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: 7) (-3)

Best Casting

Predicted Nominees:

1. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Sinners (PR: 2) (-1)

3. Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (E)

4. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Jay Kelly (PR: 9) (+4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Hamnet (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Rental Family (PR: 8) (-2)

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. One Battle After Another (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Hamnet (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Frankenstein (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jay Kelly (PR: 8) (+2)

7. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 10) (+3)

8. F1 (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Train Dreams (PR: 9) (E)

10. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 7) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Bugonia

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)

2. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)

4. Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)

5. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 8) (+1)

8. One Battle After Another (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Snow White (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Hedda (PR: 7) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

3. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)

4. Wicked: For Good (PR: 9) (+5)

5. Jay Kelly (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. No Other Choice (PR: 5) (-1)

7. A House of Dynamite (PR: 8) (+1)

8. F1 (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Hamnet (PR: 6) (-3)

10. Sentimental Value (PR: 7) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Avatar: Fire and Ash

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Smashing Machine (PR: 4) (E)

5. 28 Years Later (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Bugonia (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 6) (-1)

8. One Battle After Another (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Wolf Man (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Weapons (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Marty Supreme

Hamnet

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)

3. Hamnet (PR: 3) (E)

4. Marty Supreme (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Jay Kelly (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Frankenstein (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (-1)

8. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Sentimental Value (PR: Not Ranked)

10. A House of Dynamite (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Bugonia

After the Hunt

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “No Place Like Home” from Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)

2. “Golden” from KPop: Demon Hunters (PR: 2) (E)

3. “I Lied to You” from Sinners (PR: 3) (E)

4. “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 5) (+1)

5. “Clothed by the Sun” from The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. “The Girl in the Bubble” from Wicked: For Good (PR: 4) (-2)

7. “Highest 2 Lowest” from Highest 2 Lowest (PR: 6) (-1)

8. “Pale, Pale Moon” from Sinners (PR: 9) (+1)

9. “Train Dreams” from Train Dreams (PR: Not Ranked)

10. “Give Your Love” from The Ballad of Wallis Island (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

“Waiting on a Wish” from Snow White

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)

2. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sinners (PR: 6) (+3)

4. Hamnet (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (-1)

7. One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (E)

8. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 8) (E)

9. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Blue Moon (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Bugonia

The Phoenician Scheme

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)

3. F1 (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 3) (-1)

5. One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Warfare (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 8) (E)

9. Frankenstein (PR: 10) (+1)

10. A House of Dynamite (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)

3. Superman (PR: 3) (E)

4. F1 (PR: 5) (+1)

5. The Fantastic Four: First Steps (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Tron: Ares (PR: 6) (E)

7. Frankenstein (PR: 7) (E)

8. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 8) (E)

9. How to Train Your Dragon (PR: 10) (+1)

10. The Lost Bus (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Warfare

And that all equates to these movies receiving these numbers of nominations:

13 Nominations

Sinners

12 Nominations

One Battle After Another

11 Nominations

Wicked: For Good

9 Nominations

Hamnet

8 Nominations

Sentimental Value

7 Nominations

Jay Kelly, Marty Supreme

4 Nominations

Avatar: Fire and Ash, Frankenstein, It Was Just an Accident

3 Nominations

No Other Choice

2 Nominations

Bugonia, F1, KPop Demon Hunters, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere, The Testament of Ann Lee

1 Nomination

28 Years Later, 2000 Meters to Andrivka, Arco, Cover-Up, Diane Warren: Relentless, Elio, The Fantastic Four: First Steps, Kiss of the Spider Woman, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, Mr. Nobody Against Putin, The Perfect Neighbor, Put Your Soul on Your Hand and Walk, The Secret Agent, The Smashing Machine, Superman, The Voice of Hind Rajib, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery, Zootopia 2