Tag: Emily Blunt

99th Academy Awards Predictions: July 5th Edition

Happy 250th birthday weekend, America! And what better way to celebrate than with fresh Oscar predictions now that we’ve surpassed the midway point of 2026. That means I’m expanding my forecasts from 8 categories (Picture, Director, the four acting derbies, the two screenplays contests) to all 21 races covering feature-length motion pictures.

This is the first glimpse at how many overall nominations I believe the hopefuls will generate. It arrives approximately two months before the fall festival season (Venice, Toronto, Telluride) kicks into gear. That trio of fests will undoubtedly alter the landscape of contenders and pretenders.

When I do my next predictions, Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey will be out. We will have a much better ide whether it deserves the perch atop Best Picture and Director and elsewhere. As soon as reviews drop, look for my individual Oscar Predictions post with the next full update likely arriving on July 19th.

I’ve put Inde Navarrette’s work in Obsession back in lead Actress as opposed to Supporting Actress. The studio could place it in either as we await word on their strategy. As of now, I feel her performance could materialize in both races. I’m also placing all performers from The Black Ball in supporting until that is clarified.

I’m keeping my BP listings at 25 and the seven top line races that I’ve previously covered at 15 possibilities. For the other competitions, I am listing 10 possibilities.

Let’s get to it, shall we?

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Digger (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (-2)

6. Fjord (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Debut (PR: 7) (E)

8. Dune: Part Three (PR: 8) (E)

9. Obsession (PR: 9) (E)

10. Cry to Heaven (PR: 10) (E)

Other Possibilities:

11. All of a Sudden (PR: 14) (+3)

12. Behemoth! (PR: 16) (+4)

13. The Social Reckoning (PR: 12) (-1)

14. A Place in Hell (PR: 11) (-3)

15. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 13) (-2)

16. Fatherland (PR: 15) (-1)

17. The Invite (PR: 17) (E)

18. Artificial (PR: Not Ranked)

19. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 19) (E)

20. Disclosure Day (PR: 20) (E)

21. Michael (PR: 24) (+3)

22. Josephine (PR: 21) (-1)

23. Being Heumann (PR: Not Ranked)

24. Jack of Spades (PR: 22) (-2)

25. Werwulf (PR: 18) (-7)

Dropped Out:

Saturn Return

Club Kid

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo, The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Digger (PR: 3) (E)

4. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (E)

5. Cristian Mungiu, Fjord (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 6) (E)

7. Curry Barker, Obsession (PR: 7) (E)

8. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Tom Ford, Cry to Heaven (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden (PR: 10) (E)

11. Jesse Eisenberg, The Debut (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Pawel Pawlikowski, Fatherland (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Tony Gilroy, Behemoth! (PR: 15) (+2)

14. Chloe Domont, A Place in Hell (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Georgia Oakley, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 14) (-1)

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Michelle Williams, A Place in Hell (PR: 1) (E)

2. Julianne Moore, The Debut (PR: 2) (E)

3. Renate Reinsve, Fjord (PR: 3) (E)

4. Inde Navarrette, Obsession (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from Supporting Actress

5. Sandra Hüller, Rose (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Emily Blunt, Disclosure Day (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie (PR: 9) (E)

10. Sandra Hüller, Fatherland (PR: 8) (-2)

11. Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 7) (-4)

12. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Sophie Okonedo, Clarissa (PR: 13) (E)

14. Mason Reeves, Josephine (PR: 12) (-2)

15. Olivia Wilde, The Invite (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Penélope Cruz, Bunker

Zendaya, The Drama

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Tom Cruise, Digger (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)

3. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Sebastian Stan, Fjord (PR: 4) (E)

5. Matt Damon, The Odyssey (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Pedro Pascal, Behemoth! (PR: 7) (+1)

7. John Turturro, The Only Living Pickpocket in New York (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Jaafar Jackson, Michael (PR: 8) (E)

9. Andrew Garfield, Artificial (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Robert Pattinson, Primetime (PR: 10) (E)

11. Nicholas Hoult, Cry to Heaven (PR: 9) (-2)

12. Andrew Scott, Elsinore (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Rami Malek, The Man I Love (PR: 13) (E)

14. Dominic Sessa, Tony (PR: 11) (-3)

15. Javier Bardem, The Beloved (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Guitarricadelafuente, The Black Ball – moved to Supporting Actor

Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Three

Hanns Zischler, Fatherland

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mariana Di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (E)

2. Penélope Cruz, The Black Ball (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Sandra Hüller, Digger (PR: 10) (+7)

4. Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Daisy Edgar-Jones, A Place in Hell (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Penélope Cruz, The Invite (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Tao Okamoto, All of a Sudden (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Esmé Creed-Miles, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 5) (-4)

10. Samantha Morton, The Odyssey (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 11) (E)

12. Halle Bailey, The Debut (PR: 12) (E)

13. Lola Dueñas, The Black Ball (PR: 13) (E)

14. Scarlett Johansson, Paper Tiger (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Elizabeth Debicki, The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 14) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Inde Navarrette, Obsession (moved to lead Actress)

Gemma Chan, Josephine

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Paul Giamatti, The Debut (PR: 1) (E)

2. John Goodman, Digger (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Robert Pattinson, The Odyssey (PR: 4) (E)

5. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Riz Ahmed, Digger (PR: 6) (E)

7. Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning (PR: 7) (E)

8. Edward Norton, The Invite (PR: 11) (+3)

9. Colman Domingo, Michael (PR: 13) (+4)

10. James Ortiz, Project Hail Mary (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Channing Tatum, Josephine (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Andrew Scott, A Place in Hell (PR: 8) (-4)

13. Mark Ruffalo, Being Heumann (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Guittaricadelafuente, The Black Ball (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from lead Actor

15. Jesse Plemons, Digger (PR: 10) (-5)

Dropped Out:

Milo Quifes, The Black Ball

Miguel Bernardeau, The Black Ball

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (E)

2. Digger (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Debut (PR: 3) (E)

4. Fjord (PR: 4) (E)

5. Obsession (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Behemoth! (PR: 7) (+1)

7. A Place in Hell (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Artificial (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Club Kid (PR: 8) (-1)

10. The Only Living Pickpocket in New York (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Jack of Spades (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Primetime (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Fatherland (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Josephine (PR: 11) (-3)

15. The Drama (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Saturn Return

Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Miasma

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Black Ball (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Odyssey (PR: 2) (E)

3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)

4. All of a Sudden (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Invite (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Cry to Heaven (PR: 7) (+1)

7. The Social Reckoning (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Dune: Part Three (PR: 10) (+2)

9. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 9) (E)

10. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 8) (-2)

11. Being Heumann (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Prima Facie (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Wildwood (PR: 15) (+2)

14. Minotaur (PR: 13) (-1)

15. A Long Winter (PR: 14) (-1)

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Black Ball

2. Fjord

3. All of a Sudden

4. Minotuar

5. Coward

Other Possibilities:

6. Fatherland

7. Possible Love

8. Mimesis

9. Rose

10. The Beloved

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wildwood

2. Toy Story 5

3. Ray Gunn

4. Tangles

5. Hoppers

Other Possibilities:

6. In Waves

7. Forgotten Island

8. Shaun the Sheep: The Beast of Mossy Bottom

9. Iron Boy

10. Minions & Monsters

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Once Upon a Time in Harlem

2. Nuisance Bear

3. To Hold a Mountain

4. The History of Concrete

5. When a Witness Recants

Other Possibilities:

6. American Doctor

7. One in a Million

8. Time and Water

9. Rehearsals for a Revolution

10. Everybody to Kenmure Street

Best Casting

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey

2. The Black Ball

3. Wild Horse Nine

4. Digger

5. Michael

Other Possibilities:

6. Fjord

7. The Debut

8. Dune: Part Three

9. Cry to Heaven

10. Behemoth!

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey

2. Project Hail Mary

3. Dune: Part Three

4. The Black Ball

5. Digger

Other Possibilities:

6. Cry to Heaven

7. Fatherland

8. Werwulf

9. Disclosure Day

10. Jack of Spades

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey

2. The Black Ball

3. Sense and Sensibility

4. Cry to Heaven

5. Dune: Part Three

Other Possibilities:

6. Werwulf

7. The Devil Wears Prada 2

8. Jack of Spades

9. Wuthering Heights

10. I Love Boosters

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey

2. The Black Ball

3. Digger

4. Project Hail Mary

5. Wild Horse Nine

Other Possibilities:

6. Dune: Part Three

7. Cry to Heaven

8. Fjord

9. Obsession

10. Behemoth!

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Digger

2. Werwulf

3. The Odyssey

4. Clayface

5. Michael

Other Possibilities:

6. The Black Ball

7. Dune: Part Three

8. Cry to Heaven

9. The Bride!

10. Madden

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey

2. The Black Ball

3. Project Hail Mary

4. Disclosure Day

5. Cry to Heaven

Other Possibilities:

6. Dune: Part Three

7. Digger

8. Wild Horse Nine

9. Wildwood

10. The Social Reckoning

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “I Knew It, I Knew You” from Toy Story 5

2. TBD from The Black Ball

3. TBD from The Debut

4. “La Playa” from The Black Ball

5. “How to Write a Song (Without You)” from Power Ballad

Other Possibilities:

6. “Runway” from The Devil Wears Prada 2

7. “Chains of Love” from Wuthering Heights

8. TBD from Hexed

9. “Save the Day” from Hoppers

10. TBD from The Rivals of Amziah King

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey

2. Project Hail Mary

3. Dune: Part Three

4. The Black Ball

5. Cry to Heaven

Other Possibilities:

6. Digger

7. Werwulf

8. Jack of Spades

9. The Adventures of Cliff Booth

10. Backrooms

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Three

2. The Odyssey

3. Project Hail Mary

4. The Black Ball

5. Michael

Other Possibilities:

6. Disclosure Day

7. Cry to Heaven

8. Digger

9. Werwulf

10. Obsession

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Three

2. Project Hail Mary

3. The Odyssey

4. Godzilla Minus Zero

5. Whalefall

Other Possibilities:

6. Avengers: Doomsday

7. Disclosure Day

8. Wildwood

9. The End of Oak Street

10. The Sheep Detectives

And that works out to my inaugural tally showing these movies generating these numbers of nominations:

14 Nominations

The Black Ball, The Odyssey

10 Nominations

Digger, White Horse Nine

9 Nominations

Project Hail Mary

6 Nominations

Dune: Part Three, Fjord

5 Nominations

The Debut

4 Nominations

Cry to Heaven

3 Nominations

Michael, Obsession

2 Nominations

All of a Sudden, A Place in Hell, Toy Story 5

1 Nomination

Clayface, Coward, Disclosure Day, Godzilla Minus Zero, The History of Concrete, Hoppers, The Invite, Minotaur, Nuisance Bear, Once Upon a Time in Harlem, Power Ballad, Ray Gunn, Rose, Sense and Sensibility, Tangles, To Hold a Mountain, Werwulf, Whalefall, When a Witness Recants. Wildwood

99th Academy Awards Predictions: June 28th Edition

As we move closer to knowing whether Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey deserves its placeholder #1 rankings in Best Picture and Director, we have seen some new trailers for consideration in the two weeks since my last update. I have said that you can’t judge a movie by its trailer, but we can look for clues about who the studio will focus on.

Jesse Eisenberg’s follow-up to A Real Pain (which won Kieran Culkin a Supporting Actor Oscar) is not titled No One Cares (which was rumored to be a working name). The first preview reveals it is called The Debut with hints that it’s a somewhat of two-hander between Julianne Moore and Paul Giamatti. That said, I still have Halle Bailey listed as a possibility in Supporting Actress.

We got our first glimpse of Georgia Oakley’s Sense and Sensibility with Daisy Edgar-Jones and Esmé Creed-Miles vying for noms. And we witnessed a Digger promotional ad that certainly indicated the studio will be all in on Tom Cruise.

Also in the past two weeks, Steven Spielberg’s Disclosure Day has proven to be a box office disappointment. In my estimation, its chances in BP and Emily Blunt in Best Actress have gone down.

Toy Story 5 also opened and while reviews were fine, many critics deemed it the weakest of the quintet. Unlike Toy Story 3 and like Toy Story 4, it should reserve a slot in Best Animated Feature but not Best Picture.

Finally, The Invite from Olivia Wilde opened in limited fashion before a nationwide rollout in July. Word-of-mouth is strong and I’m beginning to think it could at least manage an Adapted Screenplay nod… if not more.

You can read all the movement below including a new #1 in Best Actress and some serious shifts in Supporting Actress!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Digger (PR: 4) (E)

5. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 5) (E)

6. Fjord (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Debut (PR: 7) (E)

8. Dune: Part Three (PR: 8) (E)

9. Obsession (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Cry to Heaven (PR: 9) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

11. A Place in Hell (PR: !3) (+2)

12. The Social Reckoning (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 15) (+2)

14. All of a Sudden (PR: 12) (-2)

15. Fatherland (PR: 16) (+1)

16. Behemoth! (PR: 17) (+1)

17. The Invite (PR: Not Ranked)

18. Werwulf (PR: 18) (E)

19. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 20) (+1)

20. Disclosure Day (PR: 14) (-6)

21. Josephine (PR: 21) (E)

22. Jack of Spades (PR: 19) (-3)

23. Saturn Return (PR: 22) (-1)

24. Michael (PR: 23) (-1)

25. Club Kid (PR: 25) (E)

Dropped Out:

Being Heumann

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo, The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Digger (PR: 3) (E)

4. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (E)

5. Cristian Mungiu, Fjord (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Curry Barker, Obsession (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Tom Ford, Cry to Heaven (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden (PR: 12) (+2)

11. Pawel Pawlikowski, Fatherland (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Jesse Eisenberg, The Debut (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Chloe Domont, A Place in Hell (PR: 13) (E)

14. Georgia Oakley, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 14) (E)

15. Tony Gilroy, Behemoth! (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Robert Eggers, Werwulf

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Michelle Williams, A Place in Hell (PR: 3) (+2)

2. Julianne Moore, The Debut (PR: 2) (E)

3. Renate Reinsve, Fjord (PR: 1) (-2)

4. Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Sandra Hüller, Rose (PR: 9) (+4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility (PR 8) (+1)

8. Sandra Hüller, Fatherland (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Emily Blunt, Disclosure Day (PR: 7) (-3)

11. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann (PR: 11) (E)

12. Mason Reeves, Josephine (PR: 12) (E)

13. Sophie Okonedo, Clarissa (PR: 13) (E)

14. Penélope Cruz, Bunker (PR: 14) (E)

15. Zendaya, The Drama (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Léa Seydoux, Gentle Monster

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Tom Cruise, Digger (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)

3. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Sebastian Stan, Fjord (PR: 3) (-1)

5. John Turturro, The Only Living Pickpocket in New York (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Matt Damon, The Odyssey (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Pedro Pascal, Behemoth! (PR: 7) (E)

8. Jaafar Jackson, Michael (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Nicholas Hoult, Cry to Heaven (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Robert Pattinson, Primetime (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Dominic Sessa, Tony (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Guitarricadelfuente, The Black Ball (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Rami Malek, The Man I Love (PR: 14) (+1)

14. Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Three (PR: 12) (-2)

15. Hanns Zischler, Fatherland (PR: 13) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Jordan Firstman, Club Kid

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mariana Di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (E)

2. Inde Navarrette, Obsession (PR: 2) (E)

3. Penélope Cruz, The Black Ball (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Daisy Edgar-Jones, A Place in Hell (PR: 9) (+5)

5. Esmé Creed-Miles, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 10) (+5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Penélope Cruz, The Invite (PR: 11) (+4)

8. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Tao Okamato, All of a Sudden (PR: 5) (-4)

10. Sandra Hüller, Digger (PR: 3) (-7)

11. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 8) (-3)

12. Halle Bailey, The Debut (PR: 12) (E)

13. Lola Dueñas, The Black Ball (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Elizbeth Debicki, The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 14) (E)

15. Gemma Chan, Josephine (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Scarlett Johansson, Paper Tiger

Lesley Manville, Jack of Spades

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Paul Giamatti, The Debut (PR: 1) (E)

2. John Goodman, Digger (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Robert Pattinson, The Odyssey (PR: 4) (E)

5. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Riz Ahmed, Digger (PR: 10) (+4)

7. Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Andrew Scott, A Place in Hell (PR: 9) (+1)

9. James Ortiz, Project Hail Mary (PR: 12) (+3)

10. Jesse Plemons, Digger (PR: 7) (-3)

11. Edward Norton, The Invite (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Channing Tatum, Josephine (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Colman Domingo, Michael (PR: 8) (-5)

14. Milo Quifes, The Black Ball (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Miguel Bernardeau, The Black Ball (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Tom Holland, The Odyssey

Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Cry to Heaven

Owen Cooper, Cry to Heaven

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (E)

2. Digger (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Debut (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Fjord (PR: 3) (-1)

5. A Place in Hell (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Obsession (PR: 6) (E)

7. Behemoth! (PR: 8) (E)

8. Club Kid (PR: 9) (E)

9. The Only Living Pickpocket in New York City (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Jack of Spades (PR: 10) (E)

11. Josephine (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Fatherland (PR: 9) (-3)

13. Primetime (PR: 11) (-2)

14. Saturn Return (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Miasma (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Drama

Disclosure Day

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Black Ball (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Odyssey (PR: 2) (E)

3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)

4, All of a Sudden (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Invite (PR: 9) (+4)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Social Reckoning (PR: 6) (E)

7. Cry to Heaven (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 8) (E)

9. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (-3)

11. Prima Facie (PR: 11) (E)

12. Being Heumann (PR: 12) (E)

13. Minotaur (PR: 15) (+2)

14. A Long Winter (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Wildwood (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Tony

99th Academy Awards Predictions: June 14th Edition

It’s been two weeks since my last round of predictions in Best Picture, Director, and the four acting competitions. With mid-June upon us, I am now adding my first takes on the two screenplay derbies.

What’s changed in the last two weeks? In my estimation, Obsession has picked up considerable momentum with its astonishing box office performance. I am now vaulting the low-budget horror smash from #25 all the way into the BP lineup. Additionally, I am now thinking that Focus Features will slot Inde Navarrette and her buzzy performance to Supporting Actress and I’m placing her in my quintet all the way in second position.

While Obsession‘s fortunes have risen, I would say Disclosure Day from Steven Spielberg has taken a slight downturn. The sci-fi saga which debuted this weekend in line with financial expectations (though certainly not over them) will have to battle other blockbusters (Project Hail Mary, The Odyssey, Dune: Part Three) over the next several months for awards viability. It could still get in (and so could Emily Blunt in Actress). However, the non-gushing critical response and mixed audience reaction is a potential roadblock.

Trailers can be deceiving when evaluating a picture’s Oscar chances. Yet I have to admit that I found our first look at The Social Reckoning underwhelming and I dropped it from my BP lineup, putting it just on the outside looking in.

You can read all the movement below!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Black Ball (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Digger (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (-1)

6. Fjord (PR: 6) (E)

7. No One Cares (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Cry to Heaven (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Obsession (PR: 25) (+15)

Other Possibilities:

11. The Social Reckoning (PR: 9) (-2)

12. All of a Sudden (PR: 12) (E)

13. A Place in Hell (PR: 15) (+2)

14. Disclosure Day (PR: 11) (-2)

15. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 14) (-1)

16. Fatherland (PR: 13) (-3)

17. Behemoth! (PR: 19) (+2)

18. Werwulf (PR: 16) (-2)

19. Jack of Spades (PR: 18) (-1)

20. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 17) (-3)

21. Josephine (PR: 23) (+2)

22. Saturn Return (PR: 24) (+2)

23. Michael (PR: 22) (-1)

24. Being Heumann (PR: 20) (-4)

25. Club Kid (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Entertainment System is Down

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo, The Black Ball (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Digger (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Cristian Mingiu, Fjord (PR: 6) (E)

7. Tom Ford, Cry to Heaven (PR: 7) (E)

8. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three (PR: 8) (E)

9. Curry Barker, Obsession (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Pawel Pawlikowski, Fatherland (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Jesse Eisenberg, No One Cares (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Chloe Domont, A Place in Hell (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Georgia Oakley, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 14) (E)

15. Robert Eggers, Werwulf (PR: 15) (E)

Dropped Out:

Steven Spielberg, Disclosure Day

Aaron Sorkin, The Social Reckoning

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Renate Reinsve, Fjord (PR: 1) (E)

2. Julianne Moore, No One Cares (PR: 2) (E)

3. Michelle Williams, A Place in Hell (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sandra Hüller, Fatherland (PR: 6) (E)

7. Emily Blunt, Disclosure Day (PR: 7) (E)

8. Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 11) (+3)

9. Sandra Hüller, Rose (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie (PR: 8) (-2)

11. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Mason Reeves, Josephine (PR: 14) (+2)

13. Sophie Okonedo, Clarissa (PR: 13) (E)

14. Penélope Cruz, Bunker (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Léa Seydoux, Gentle Monster (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Inde Navarrette, Obsession (moved to Supporting Actress)

Rachel Brosnahan, Saturn Return

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Tom Cruise, Digger (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sebastian Stan, Fjord (PR: 3) (E)

4. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (E)

5. Matt Damon, The Odyssey (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. John Turturro, The Only Living Pickpocket in New York (PR: 13) (+7)

7. Pedro Pascal, Behemoth! (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Nicholas Hoult, Cry to Heaven (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Jaafar Jackson, Michael (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Dominic Sessa, Tony (PR: 8) (-2)

11. Robert Pattinson, Primetime (PR: 11) (E)

12. Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Three (PR: 12) (E)

13. Hanns Zischler, Fatherland (PR: 14) (+1)

14. Rami Malek, The Man I Love (PR: 10 (-4)

15. Jordan Firstman, Club Kid (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Javier Bardem, The Beloved

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mariana Di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (E)

2. Inde Navarrette, Obsession (PR: Not Ranked – moved from lead Actress)

3. Sandra Hüller, Digger (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Penélope Cruz, The Black Ball (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Tao Okamoto, All of a Sudden (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey (PR: 3) (-3)

7. Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Daisy Edgar-Jones, A Place in Hell (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Esmé Creed-Miles, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 10) (E)

11. Penélope Cruz, The Invite (PR: 13) (+2)

12. Halle Bailey, No One Cares (PR: 9) (-3)

13. Scarlet Johansson, Paper Tiger (PR: 15) (+2)

14. Elizabeth Debicki, The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 11) (-3)

15. Lesley Manville, Jack of Spades (PR: 14) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Adele, Cry to Heaven

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Paul Giamatti, No One Cares (PR: 1) (E)

2. John Goodman, Digger (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Robert Pattinson, The Odyssey (PR: 4) (E)

5. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning (PR: 6) (E)

7. Jesse Plemons, Digger (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Colman Domingo, Michael (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Andrew Scott, A Place in Hell (PR: 13) (+4)

10. Riz Ahmed, Digger (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Channing Tatum, Josephine (PR: 12) (+1)

12. James Ortiz, Project Hail Mary (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Tom Holland, The Odyssey (PR: 10) (-3)

14. Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Cry to Heaven (PR: 7) (-7)

15. Owen Cooper, Cry to Heaven (PR: 11) (-4)

Dropped Out:

Mark Ruffalo, Being Heumann

Antonio Banderas, Tony

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wild Horse Nine

2. Digger

3. Fjord

4. No One Cares

5. A Place in Hell

Other Possibilities:

6. Obsession

7. Behemoth!

8. Club Kid

9. Fatherland

10. Jack of Spades

11. Primetime

12. Josephine

13. The Drama

14. Disclosure Day

15. Saturn Return

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Black Ball

2. The Odyssey

3. Project Hail Mary

4. All of a Sudden

5. Cry to Heaven

Other Possibilties:

6. The Social Reckoning

7. Dune: Part Three

8. Sense and Sensibility

9. The Invite

10. The Adventures of Cliff Booth

11. Prima Facie

12. Being Heumann

13. A Long Winter

14. Tony

15. Minotaur

Oscar Predictions: Disclosure Day

Disclosure Day, which returns Steven Spielberg to the extraterrestrial genre, marks the 34th feature from the iconic filmmaker. Of the previous 33, only five failed to receive at least Oscar nomination: 1974’s The Sugarland Express, 1989’s Always, 2004’s The Terminal, 2008’s Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull, and 2016’s The BFG. That’s one heckuva percentage with the Academy and it’s highly unlikely that Disclosure Day will become the sixth to blank with voters.

Out this weekend, the sci-fi tale reunites the director with his frequent screenwriter David Koepp. Emily Blunt, Josh O’Connor, Colin Firth, Eve Hewson, Wyatt Russell, and Colman Domingo headline the cast. The review embargo is up with an encouraging 88% on Rotten Tomatoes and 74 on Metacritic.

Finding Spielberg back in the blockbuster territory for the first time since 2018’s Ready Player One, this is not as Oscar baity as his last two projects (West Side Story and The Fabelmans). As far as Disclosure‘s Best Picture prospects, the possibility is there under a best case scenario. However, other mass appeal pics like Project Hail Mary (which has probably punched its BP ticket) and the upcoming The Odyssey and Dune: Part Three loom. If it manages to get into BP, Spielberg could follow suit in director. Original Screenplay might be more of a challenge.

It’s no surprise that the film’s strongest chances lie below the line, particularly in Sound and Visual Effects. Then there’s John Williams. Spielberg’s most frequent collaborator could manage an Original Score mention. He would be 95 when the 99th ceremony airs and it would mark his 55th (!) nomination with five victories to his legendary name.

As far as the cast, Firth is getting good ink. Yet it’s Blunt who could make the cut in Best Actress. Competition will clearly be key, but she is being heralded in what some critics are calling career-best work. She is nowhere near as guaranteed to get in as her The Fall Guy costar Ryan Gosling is for Hail Mary, but Blunt definitely has a prayer. If so, it would mark only her second attempt at Academy gold after being up in Supporting Actress for 2023’s Oppenheimer.

Bottom line: Disclosure Day will keep its maker’s popularity with the Academy intact. The number of nominations is the real mystery. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Disclosure Day Box Office Prediction

Steven Spielberg is back in familiar alien territory when Disclosure Day opens June 12th. The sci-fi saga centered on extraterrestrial revelations finds the Close Encounters of the Third, E.T.: The Extra-Terrestrial, and War of the Worlds maker in summer blockbuster mode for the first time in years. Emily Blunt and Josh O’Connor star with Colin Firth, Eve Hewson, Colman Domingo, and Wyatt Russell in support. David Koepp, a frequent collaborator of the director who penned Jurassic Park and War of the Worlds, scripts.

The trailers have done a decent job at keeping Spielberg’s wishes to not spoil the plot. The pic’s biggest selling point is indeed the man behind the camera. You can’t say that about many directors though Christopher Nolan certainly comes to mind recently. As mentioned, you have to go back to 2008’s Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull for Mr. Spielberg’s last proper popcorn flick in this season.

Forthcoming reviews could help or hinder the turnout and let’s see if I adjust my figure next week when the buzz is louder. Current estimates have this between $40-$50 million with the possibility of an uptick seeming likelier than the alternative. Considering that many movies are exceeding expectations, I’ll go with the slight over.

Disclosure Day opening weekend prediction: $51.6 million

99th Academy Awards Predictions: May 30th Edition

It’s been over three weeks since I’ve updated my Oscar predictions in the six major categories of Picture, Director, and the four acting races. A little thing called the Cannes Film Festival happened in between. In the past few cycles, you can usually count on 2-3 films screened in the French Riviera to eventually make the Best Picture cut at the Academy Awards.

Some features like Na Hong-jin’s Hope and James Gray’s Paper Tiger saw their fortunes take a hit. I would say there are four titles that standing the best chance at finding themselves in the Oscar mix: Cristian Mingiu’s Fjord (which won the Palme d’Or), Ryusuke Hamaguchi’s All of a Sudden, Fatherland from Pawel Pawlkowski, and especially The Black Ball from Javier Calvo and Javier Ambrossi. You can read my detailed prediction posts on the those Cannes titles and more on the blog from the past few days. There’s others that could gain momentum including Minotaur, Coward, and Club Kid.

Steven Spielberg’s Disclosure Day didn’t screen at Cannes, but is readying release on June 12th. Influencers who’ve seen it are highly positive. That said, it is a wise practice to wait until the real review embargo lapses to get a clear picture of its awards viability. For now, I have the movie, Spielberg, and Emily Blunt just on the outside looking in.

The horror flick Obsession drew rave critical reactions and fantastic box office numbers that are continuing to grow. This has truly opened the door for Inde Navarrette to snag an acting nod and, in a best case scenario, BP inclusion (still seems like a long shot but you never know). It’s a legit question as to whether Navarrette competes in lead Actress or Supporting Actress. For now, I’m slotting her as a possibility (though not yet a nominee) in the former. Focus Features will clear it up as some point though it might be a while.

You can read all the movement below and I’ll have the next update available in mid-June!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)

3. Digger (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (-1)

5. The Black Ball (PR: Not Ranked)

6. Fjord (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Dune: Part Three (PR: 8) (+1)

8. No One Cares (PR: 6) (-2)

9. The Social Reckoning (PR: 9) (E)

10. Cry to Heaven (PR: 12) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

11. Disclosure Day (PR: Not Ranked)

12. All of a Sudden (PR: 10) (-2)

13. Fatherland (PR: 7) (-6)

14. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 17) (+2)

15. A Place in Hell (PR: 13) (-2)

16. Werwulf (PR: 15) (-1)

17. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 25) (+8)

18. Jack of Spades (PR: 20) (+2)

19. Behemoth! (PR: 23) (+4)

20. Being Heumann (PR: 21) (+1)

21. The Entertainment System is Down (PR: 19) (-2)

22. Michael (PR: 24) (+2)

23. Josephine (PR: 17) (-6)

24. Saturn Return (PR: 18) (-6)

25. Obsession (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Hope

Paper Tiger

A Long Winter

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Digger (PR: 2) (E)

3. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Javier Calva and Javier Ambrossi, The Black Ball (PR: Not Ranked)

5. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Cristian Mingiu, Fjord (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Tom Ford, Cry to Heaven (PR: 11) (+4)

8. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three (PR: 8) (E)

9. Pawel Pawlikowski, Fatherland (PR: 6) (-3)

10. Steven Spielberg, Disclosure Day (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden (PR: 7) (-4)

12. Jesse Eisenberg, No One Cares (PR: 9) (-3)

13. Aaron Sorkin, The Social Reckoning (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Georgia Oakley, Sense and Sensibility (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Robert Eggers, Werwulf (PR: 13) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Na Hong-jin, Hope

James Gray, Paper Tiger

Greg Kwedar, Saturn Return

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Renate Reinsve, Fjord (PR: 1) (E)

2. Julianne Moore, No One Cares (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Michelle Williams, A Place in Hell (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sandra Hüller, Fatherland (PR: 2) (-4)

7. Emily Blunt, Disclosure Day (PR: Not Raked)

8. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Inde Navarrette, Obsession (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Sandra Hüller, Rose (PR: 8) (-2)

11. Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann (PR: 9) (-3)

13. Sophie Okonedo, Clarissa (PR: 10) (-3)

14. Mason Reeves, Josephine (PR: 11) (-3)

15. Rachel Brosnahan, Saturn Return (PR: 13) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Penélope Cruz, Bunker

Lily Gladstone, The Memory Police

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Tom Cruise, Digger (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sebastian Stan, Fjord (PR: 3) (E)

4. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (E)

5. Matt Damon, The Odyssey (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Nicholas Hoult, Cry to Heaven (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Jaafar Jackson, Michael (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Dominic Sessa, Tony (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Pedro Pascal, Behemoth! (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Rami Malek, The Man I Love (PR: 14) (+4)

11. Robert Pattinson, Primetime (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Three (PR: 15) (+3)

13. John Turturro, The Only Living Pickpocket in New York City (PR: 10) (-3)

14. Hanns Zischler, Fatherland (PR: 5) (-9)

15. Javier Bardem, The Beloved (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Jeremy Allen White, The Social Reckoning

Adam Driver, Paper Tiger

Josh O’Connor, Jack of Spades

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mariana Di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sandra Hüller, Digger (PR: 2) (E)

3. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey (PR: 7) (+4)

4. Tao Okamoto, All of a Sudden (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Penélope Cruz, The Black Ball (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (-3)

7. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Daisy Edgar-Jones, A Place in Hell (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Halle Bailey, No One Cares (PR: 4) (-5)

10. Esmé Creed-Miles, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Elizabeth Debicki, The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Adele, Cry to Heaven (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Penélope Cruz, The Invite (PR: 14) (+1)

14. Lesley Manville, Jack of Spades (PR: 10) (-4)

15. Scarlett Johansson, Paper Tiger (PR: 9) (-6)

Dropped Out:

Kirsten Dunst, The Entertainment System is Down

Caitriona Balfe, A Long Winter

Gemma Chan, Josephine

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Paul Giamatti, No One Cares (PR: 1) (E)

2. John Goodman, Digger (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Robert Pattinson, The Odyssey (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning (PR: 6) (E)

7. Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Cry to Heaven (PR: 15) (+8)

8. Jesse Plemons, Digger (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Colman Domingo, Michael (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Tom Holland, The Odyssey (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Owen Cooper, Cry to Heaven (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Channing Tatum, Josephine (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Andrew Scott, A Place in Hell (PR: 8) (-5)

14. Mark Ruffalo. Being Heumann (PR: 12) (-2)

15. Antonio Banderas, Tony (PR: 14) (-1)

Dropped Out:

David Oyelowo, Clarissa

Oscar Predictions: The Devil Wears Prada 2

The Devil Wears Prada 2, despite a two decade long break from its predecessor, seems to be fresh in the consciousness of moviegoers. The sequel is expected to make a killing at the box office with Meryl Streep, Anne Hathaway, Emily Blunt, and Stanley Tucci reprising their roles from the 2006 comedy. Justin Theroux and Kenneth Branagh join the fun with David Frankel back directing.

Prada part one managed to get awards attention 20 years ago. Meryl Streep landed her 14th nomination for Best Actress (she’s now up to 21), falling short to Helen Mirren as The Queen. The fashion centric flick also contended for Costume Design. At the Golden Globes, Streep won lead Actress in a Musical or Comedy. The pic itself was up for Best Film in that Musical or Comedy derby while Emily Blunt was among the quintet vying for Supporting Actress.

The original posted scores of 75% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 62 Metacritic. The follow-up? 75% on RT with 61 on Metacritic! That tracks with the general consensus that 2 is a worthy if unspectacular continuation for these characters. I doubt Streep gets Academy nod #22 for this but she could certainly get her 35th Golden Globe at-bat. A spot in Best Musical or Comedy will be dependent on level of competition.

At the Oscars, Costume Design is obviously in play. Then there’s the original song “Runway” from Lady Gaga and Doechii. It could mark the former’s 4th nom in Original Song. She won with “Shallow” from A Star Is Born while “Til It Happens to You” (2015’s The Hunting Ground) and “Hold My Hand” (2022’s Top Gun: Maverick) made the dance. The Prada track is more uptempo and may not be as Academy-friendly as the aforementioned ballads. I still wouldn’t count her out. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

The Devil Wears Prada 2 Box Office Prediction

Arriving two decades after its predecessor on May 1st is the fashion dramedy The Devil Wears Prada 2. It will bank on riding a nostalgic wave and large female audience. David Frankel is back in the director’s seat with returning stars Meryl Streep, Anne Hathaway, Emily Blunt, and Stanley Tucci alongside series newbies Justin Theroux and Kenneth Branagh (and a number of cameos).

In the summer of 2006, the first Prada was a solid counter programing performer. Opening to $27.5 million, it legged out impressively to a $124 million domestic haul. Most importantly, it has stuck around in the cultural zeitgeist over the past 20 years.

This truly appears to be an example where the sequel will outdo the original. Marketing has been heavy and the dawn of May indicates supreme confidence from 20th Century Studios. For Streep, it should blow away her best ever debut held by Mamma Mia! ($27.6 million) with the OG Devil right behind it. I believe this could triple (or more) what part one achieved (not adjusted for inflation) during its launch.

The Devil Wears Prada 2 opening weekend prediction: $86.5 million

For my Hokum prediction, click here:

Hokum Box Office Prediction

For my Animal Farm prediction, click here:

Animal Farm Box Office Prediction

98th Academy Awards Predictions: January 13th Edition

It has been nearly a month (!) since my last Oscar predictions on December 17th and a whole lotta activity has happened since. The Critics Choice and Golden Globe Awards aired. SAG Actor noms and BAFTA long lists were unveiled. The Directors and Producers Guild gave us their contenders. And we arrive at my penultimate picks for the 98th Academy Awards. You can expect my final predictions on Sunday or Monday.

So what’s changed since the week before Christmas? Well, you have to read below for that!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. One Battle After Another (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

3. Hamnet (PR: 3) (E)

4. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)

5. Frankenstein (PR: 7) (+2)

6. Sentimental Value (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Bugonia (PR: 10) (+3)

8. The Secret Agent (PR: 8) (E)

9. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 6) (-3)

10. Train Dreams (PR: 9) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

11. Wicked: For Good (PR: 11) (E)

12. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 15) (+3)

13. Sirāt (PR: 13) (E)

14. Weapons (PR: Not Ranked)

15. F1 (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Jay Kelly

The Testament of Ann Lee

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

3. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PR: 3) (E)

4. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident (PR: 4) (E)

5. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 7) (E)

8. Kieber Mendonça Filho, The Secret Agent (PR: 8) (E)

9. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Oliver Laxe, Sirāt (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Clint Bentley, Train Dreams

Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 1) (E)

2. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another (PR: 4) (E)

5. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 6) (E)

7. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue (PR: 9) (E)

10. Eva Victor, Sorry, Baby (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Tessa Thompson, Hedda

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)

2. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)

3. Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams (PR: 6) (-1)

8. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 8) (E)

9. Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)

2. Amy Madigan, Weapons (PR: 5) (+3)

3. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (E)

4. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Odessa A’Zion, Marty Supreme (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Regina Hall, One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (-2)

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

2. Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)

3. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (PR: 6) (E)

7. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (PR: 7) (E)

8. Andrew Scott, Blue Moon (PR: 8) (E)

9. Miles Caton, Sinners (PR: Not Ranked)

10. William H. Macy, Train Dreams (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Josh O’Connor, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (-1)

3. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 3) (E)

4. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Secret Agent (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sorry, Baby (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Blue Moon (PR: 7) (E)

8. Weapons (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Jay Kelly (PR: 6) (-3)

10. If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)

2. Hamnet (PR: 2) (E)

3. Bugonia (PR: 3) (E)

4. Train Dreams (PR: 4) (E)

5. Frankenstein (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. No Other Choice (PR: 6) (E)

7. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 7) (E)

8. Nuremberg (PR: 8) (E)

9. Pillion (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Life of Chuck (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Hedda

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Secret Agent (PR: 3) (+2)

2. Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)

3. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 1) (-2)

4. Sirāt (PR: 4) (E)

5. No Other Choice (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Voice of Hind Rajab (PR: 6) (E)

7. Left-Handed Girl (PR: 7) (E)

8. Belén (PR: 8) (E)

9. Sound of Falling (PR: 10) (+1)

10. All That’s Left of You (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The President’s Cake

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 1) (E)

2. Zootopia 2 (PR: 2) (E)

3. Arco (PR: 3) (E)

4. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain (PR: 4) (E)

5. Elio (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. In Your Dreams (PR: 6) (E)

7. Scarlet (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Endless Cookie (PR: 8) (E)

9. A Magnificent Life (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – The Movie: Infinity Castle (PR: 10) (E)

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Perfect Neighbor (PR: 1) (E)

2. 2000 Meters to Andrivka (PR: 2) (E)

3. Cover-Up (PR: 4) (+1)

4. My Undesirable Friends: Part I – Last Air in Moscow (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Come See Me in the Good Light (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Mr. Nobody Against Putin (PR: 9) (+2)

8. The Alabama Solution (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Seeds (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Cutting Through Rocks (PR: 10) (E)

Best Casting

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 2) (+1)

2. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)

4. Sentimental Value (PR: 4) (E)

5. Hamnet (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Secret Agent (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Frankenstein (PR: 7) (E)

8. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Sirāt (PR: 9) (E)

10. Weapons (PR: 10) (E)

Bst Cinematography

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)

3. Frankenstein (PR: 3) (E)

4. Train Dreams (PR: 4) (E)

5. Hamnet (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (E)

7. Nouvelle Vague (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Sirāt (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Bugonia (PR: 9) (E)

10. F1 (PR: 7) (-3)

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sinners (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)

5. One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (E)

7. Hedda (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 8) (E)

9. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Bugonia

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

3. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)

4. F1 (PR: 4) (E)

5. Sentimental Value (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Hamnet (PR: 6) (E)

7. Frankenstein (PR: 8) (+1)

8. The Secret Agent (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Bugonia (PR: Not Ranked)

10. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 7) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Sirāt

No Other Choice

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sinners (PR: 4) (+1)

4. The Smashing Machine (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Kokuho (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. One Battle After Another (PR: 5) (-1)

7. The Ugly Stepsister (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Marty Supreme (PR: 7) (-1)

9. The Alto Knights (PR: 9) (E)

10. Nuremberg (PR: 8) (-2)

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)

3. Frankenstein (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Hamnet (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Sirāt (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (-1)

7. F1 (PR: 7) (E)

8. Bugonia (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Train Dreams (PR: 9) (E)

10. Hedda (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Jay Kelly

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 1) (E)

2. “I Lied to You” from Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

3. “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 4) (+1)

4. “The Girl in the Bubble” from Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (-1)

5. “Train Dreams” from Train Dreams (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Salt Then Sour Then Sweet” from Come See Me in the Good Light (PR: 5) (-1)

7. “Last Time (I Seen the Sun)” from Sinners (PR: 7) (E)

8. “Our Love” from The Ballad of Wallis Island (PR: Not Ranked)

9. “Highest 2 Lowest” from Highest 2 Lowest (PR: Not Ranked)

10. “No Place Like Home” from Wicked: For Good (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

“Drive” from F1

“Dream As One” from Avatar: Fire and Ash

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

3. Hamnet (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 6) (E)

7. One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (E)

8. The Secret Agent (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Bugonia (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Phoenician Scheme

Hedda

The Fantastic Four: First Steps

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. F1 (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Sinners (PR: 1) (-1)

3. One Battle After Another (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Sirāt (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Frankenstein (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 8) (E)

9. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 9) (E)

10. Superman (PR: 10) (E)

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 1) (E)

2. F1 (PR: 2) (E)

3. Frankenstein (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Superman (PR: 3) (-1)

5. The Lost Bus (PR: 9) (+4)

Other Possibilties:

6. Sinners (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Tron: Ares (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Jurassic World: Rebirth (PR: 8) (-1)

10. The Electric State (PR: 10) (E)

And that equates to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:

14 Nominations

One Battle After Another

13 Nominations

Sinners

10 Nominations

Hamnet

9 Nominations

Frankenstein, Sentimental Value

7 Nominations

Marty Supreme

5 Nominations

Wicked: For Good

4 Nominations

It Was Just an Accident, The Secret Agent, Train Dreams

3 Nominations

Bugonia, F1, Sirāt

2 Nominations

Avatar: Fire and Ash, KPop Demon Hunters

1 Nomination

Apocalypse in the Tropics, Arco, Blue Moon, Cover-Up, Diane Warren: Relentless, Elio, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You, Kokuho, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, The Lost Bus, My Undesirable Friends: Part I – Last Air in Moscow, No Other Choice, The Perfect Neighbor, The Smashing Machine, Superman, 2000 Meters to Andrivka, Weapons, Zootopia 2

83rd Golden Globe Awards Winner Predictions

The 83rd edition of the Golden Globes Awards airs Sunday with Nikki Glaser returning for hosting duties. The Globes have a sometimes spotty history matching with Oscar and it’s a little trickier to make Academy correlations due to the Globes splitting the Picture and lead acting races into Drama and Musical/Comedy.

That said, it would be a surprise if One Battle After Another (extremely like) and Sinners (not guaranteed) didn’t emerge victorious in their respective BP derbies. As for the acting races… that could get interesting. Let’s walk through each category with a winner and runner-up prediction and some analysis.

I’ll have a recap up Sunday night with my thoughts and how I performed.

Best Motion Picture – Drama

Frankenstein, Hamnet, It Was Just an Accident, The Secret Agent, Sentimental Value, Sinners

I would not be surprised if the Globe voters go with Hamnet, but I’ll project a Battle/Sinners narrative stays intact at the Oscars with Ryan Coogler’s vampire tale picking up the gold.

WINNER: Sinners

Runner-Up: Hamnet

Best Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy

Blue Moon, Bugonia, Marty Supreme, No Other Choice, Nouvelle Vague, One Battle After Another

Let’s not overcomplicate this one. Battle is the heavy favorite and anything else would be a shocker.

WINNER: One Battle After Another

Runner-Up: Marty Supreme (? – I guess)

Best Director

Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another), Ryan Coogler (Sinners), Guillermo del Toro (Frankenstein), Jafar Pahani (It Was Just an Accident), Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value), Chloé Zhao (Hamnet)

As with the Critics Choice Awards, I’m going with PTA over Coogler with a remote shot of a Panahi upset.

WINNER: Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another

Runner-Up: Ryan Coogler, Sinners

Best Actress – Drama

Jessie Buckley (Hamnet), Jennifer Lawrence (Die, My Love), Renate Reinsve (Sentimental Value), Julia Roberts (After the Hunt), Tessa Thompson (Hedda), Eva Victor (Sorry, Baby)

Another easy one to call with Buckley potentially on her way to a seasonal sweep.

WINNER: Jessie Buckley, Hamnet

Runner-Up: Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value

Best Actor – Drama

Joel Edgerton (Train Dreams), Oscar Isaac (Frankenstein), Dwayne Johnson (The Smashing Machine), Michael B. Jordan (Sinners), Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent), Jeremy Allen White (Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere)

It’s highly unlikely any of the nominees here will win the Oscar and probably one or two (or at best three) will make the Academy quintet. I’m going with a slight upset as most are going with Moura. I think Sinners love could prevail.

WINNER: Michael B. Jordan, Sinners

Runner-Up: Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent

Best Actress – Musical or Comedy

Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You), Cynthia Erivo (Wicked: For Good), Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue), Chase Infiniti (One Battle After Another), Amanda Seyfried (The Testament of Ann Lee), Emma Stone (Bugonia)

Byrne is the favorite and I’m going with her though I have a nagging feeling there could be an upset and it could be Hudson, Infiniti, or Stone.

WINNER: Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You

Runner-Up: Emma Stone, Bugonia

Best Actor – Musical or Comedy

Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme), George Clooney (Jay Kelly), Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another), Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon), Lee Byung-hun (No Other Choice), Jesse Plemons (Bugonia)

This is where the potential Oscar recipients reside this time around (unlike in 2025) and I’ll say Chalamet reigns supreme with DiCaprio and Hawke as spoilers.

WINNER: Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme

Runner-Up: Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another

Best Supporting Actress

Emily Blunt (The Smashing Machine), Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value), Ariana Grande (Wicked: For Good), Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass (Sentimental Value), Amy Madigan (Weapons), Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another)

We will get a big clue as to whether Madigan is a potential sweeper or if Taylor or someone else become the main competition. I’ll say Aunt Gladys’s momentum continues.

WINNER: Amy Madigan, Weapons

Runner-Up: Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another

Best Supporting Actor

Benicio del Toro (One Battle After Another), Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein), Paul Mescal (Hamnet), Sean Penn (One Battle After Another), Adam Sandler (Jay Kelly), Stellan Skarsgård (Sentimental Value)

An intriguing race as Elordi shocked all with the CCA win and is certainly a factor now. There’s also the strong possibility of one of the Battle boys getting this. I wouldn’t even discount a Mescal upset. I am (with reservations) going with Skarsgård as Value needs a boost.

WINNER: Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value

Runner-Up: Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another

Best Screenplay

Hamnet, It Was Just an Accident, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sentimental Value, Sinners

Probably another Battle/Sinners showdown with the former more likely.

WINNER: One Battle After Another

Runner-Up: Sinners

Best Non-English Language Motion Picture

It Was Just an Accident, No Other Choice, The Secret Agent, Sentimental Value, Sirāt, The Voice of Hind Rajab

Agent and Value are MAJOR threats though I’m going Accident.

WINNER: It Was Just an Accident

Runner-Up: Sentimental Value

Best Animated Motion Picture

Arco, Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – The Movie: Infinity Castle, Elio, KPop Demon Hunters, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, Zootopia 2

Zoo 2 could threaten but KPop juggernaut should roll.

WINNER: KPop Demon Hunters

Runner-Up: Zootopia 2

Best Original Score

F1, Frankenstein, Hamnet, One Battle After Another, Sinners, Sirāt

Sinners is the definite frontrunner with Battle as a possibility.

WINNER: Sinners

Runner-Up: One Battle After Another

Best Song

“Dream As One” from Avatar: Fire and Ash; “The Girl in the Bubble” from Wicked: For Good; “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters; “I Lied to You” from Sinners; “No Place Like Home” from Wicked: For Good; “Train Dreams” from Train Dreams

Another Sinners has a chance though KPop should be… well, golden,

WINNER: “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters

Runner-Up: “I Lied to You” from Sinners

Cinematic and Box Office Achievement

Avatar: Fire and Ash, F1, KPop Demon Hunter, Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning, Sinners, Weapons, Wicked: For Good, Zootopia 2

Sinners should take this silly little category in its third silly little year of existence.

WINNER: Sinners

Runner-Up: Is there one? Maybe KPop?

And that means I have these movies winning these numbers of Golden Globes:

4 Wins

Sinners

3 Wins

One Battle After Another

2 Wins

KPop Demon Hunters

1 Win

Hamnet, If I Has Legs I’d Kick You, It Was Just an Accident, Marty Supreme, Sentimental Value, Weapons