Tag: Venice Film Festival

Venice Goes for the Unknown

The jury at the Venice Film Festival have been an unpredictable group over the last few years and the deciders at the 2026 edition have followed suit. As the event draws to a close today, May el-Toukhy’s post-WWII drama Woman Unknown has taken the Golden Lion (the fest’s top prize) with lead Mathilde Arcel as Best Actress. This was not a pic that prognosticators were selecting.

The Dutch production isn’t slated to release in its home country until February 2027. It will be interesting to see of those plans are altered or if a stateside launch comes prior to this year’s end. If so, Unknown is at least a possibility for International Feature Film. However, four of the past five Lion recipients haven’t made it into the BP derby at the Oscars with the exception being 2023’s Poor Things. Unknown probably makes it five of six.

Lee Chang-dong’s Possible Love is the Silver Lion victor (second place). One of the best reviewed features out of Italy, the South Korean drama (already announced as their IFF competitor) and Netflix acquisition is a real threat to make the cut in that race.

Set in a Soviet research facility across five decades, Ilya Khrzhanosky is the Best Director for DAU which could be picked up by a number of countries as their IFF hopeful.

There was some love for domestic product as John Malkovich is Best Actor for Martin McDonagh’s acclaimed Wild Horse Nine. There’s not a strong history between this award at Venice and taking home gold at Oscar. In fact, it has somehow never happened in the 82 previous years. The last Venice recipient to get an Academy nom was Colin Farrell for 2022’s The Banshees of Inisherin. Prior to that, it was Willem Dafoe for At Eternity’s Gate. Malkovich has a real shot at being the first to win both based on WOM from the fest.

Keep clicking on the blog for more Oscar insight and festival reactions!

Oscar Predictions: NAZA

Two years after No Other Land won Best Documentary Feature at the Oscars, filmmakers Yuval Abraham and Rachel Szor could be in contention again for NAZA. Shot in Tel Aviv during the ongoing Gaza war, it premiered in Venice and will also play the New York Film Festival.

While I normally don’t mention the length of standing ovations at screenings, it’s worth noting that NAZA appears to have the longest one in Venice’s history at 24 minutes. Critical acclaim is high with 100% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 96 Metacritic. NAZA joins Once Upon a Time in Harlem, American Doctor, and You Can See Everything as the likeliest docs to make the Academy’s cut and a threat to win. I’ll also note that the doc branch is capable of shocking omissions in past years but NAZA seems like a title that won’t miss. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions – Oasis: Don’t Look Back in Anger

Oasis: Don’t Look Back in Anger is out in theaters after premiering at the Venice Film Festival. The documentary from Will Lovelace and Dylan Southern takes us behind the scenes for the reunion and tour of brothers Noel and Liam Gallagher’s legendary band (a reunion considered by most to be unfathomable before it happened).

Anger is slated to be available on Hulu/Disney+ later in the year. Critics are being kind with 97% on Rotten Tomatoes and 79 on Metacritic. As I’ve written about many times on the blog, celeb focused docs face an uphill battle for the Academy’s recognition. Don’t count on the documentary branch to look back on this and include it in their five contenders. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Musk

Does Musk smell like an Oscar contender? The documentary is bound to be one of the higher profile genre entries of 2026 with Alex Gibney directing a near four hour look at Elon Musk, the world’s richest man and a lightning rod for controversy.

It premiered at the Venice Film Festival over the weekend and was a bit overshadowed by the unexpected debut of You Can See Everything, another buzzy doc that made a splash at Telluride. Rotten Tomatoes is at 100% with 77 on Metacritic.

Gibney’s Taxi to the Dark Side was the Documentary Feature victor in 2007 and he has helmed numerous acclaimed flicks on the big and small screen. Musk could definitely get in the five nominated docs, but I think it’s less likely than others like Once Upon a Time in Harlem and the aforementioned Everything.

Musk could miss Documentary Feature and still get into Original Song where David Byrne has written and sung the track “Let Me Sell You a Dream”. The former Talking Heads frontman is an Academy recipient for his score to 1987’s The Last Emperor and was nominated four years back in Original Song for “This Is a Life” from Everything Everywhere All at Once. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Bunker

Florian Zeller had an Oscar hit right out of the gate with his debut 2020 feature The Father. Nominated for six Academy Awards including Best Picture, it would win Zeller an Adapted Screenplay trophy (adapting his own play) as well as Anthony Hopkins taking home Best Actor. It received a 98% Rotten Tomatoes rating. The filmmaker’s 2023 follow-up The Son with Hugh Jackman? 28%.

That’s the definition of a sophomore slump and lots of curiosity greets third pic Bunker. It has screened at the Venice Film Festival prior to its anticipated release later this year. The psychological drama stars real life spouses Penélope Cruz and Javier Bardem with support from Stephen Graham, Paul Dano, and Patrick Schwarzenegger. The RT score sits at a middling 55% and 46 Metacritic. The MC number is only one point above The Son.

In other words, Bunker‘s Oscar chances equal Zeller’s predecessor at non-existent. For Cruz, she will likely be walking the red carpet next year anyway with a supporting nod for either The Invite or The Black Ball (or both based on a fresh rule change). Her husband has more of an outside shot in lead Actor for The Beloved. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Possible Love

What are the awards possibilities for Lee Chanh-dong’s Possible Love now that it has premiered in Venice? The South Korean drama is the filmmaker’s follow-up to 2018’s Burning which was selected by its nation as their International Feature Film pick but failed to make the final cut. Jeon Do-yeon, Sul Kyung-gu, Zo In-sung, and Cho Yeo-jeong star with a stateside release for October 23rd and a Netflix streaming bow on November 6th.

Early reviews are impressive with 100% on Rotten Tomatoes and a perhaps more notable 96% on Metacritic. Even with that rapturous reaction, one wonders how much room for international product could make up the 10 Best Picture nominees. Love will need to compete with The Black Ball (which has likely punched its ticket) and potentially the Cannes winner Fjord and All of a Sudden. It is a legit question whether Netflix will throw most of the campaigning behind Ball.

If Love were to take the top prize at Venice, chances in the big dance would immediately rise. However, as of now, I think International Feature Film is perhaps the sole nomination with an outside shot at Original Screenplay. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Primetime

Ahead of its September 25th theatrical bow, Lance Oppenheim’s Primetime has screened at Venice. Is it ready for Oscar attention? Depends on the high profile category. Robert Pattinson stars as To Catch a Predator host Chris Hansen with a supporting cast including Merritt Wever, Skyler Gisondo, Phoebe Bridgers, Bokeem Woodbine, Anna Faris, and Alex Winter.

Critics are praising the grimy look covering dark subject matter in the thriller. It sports a 92% on Rotten Tomatoes with a clearer picture Metacritic rating of 74. Pattinson is having himself a year with acclaimed roles in The Drama and The Odyssey. His turn as the potentially dangerously driven Hansen could be his strongest shot at a Best Actor nom. He could definitely make the quintet though I’d feel even more confident if I felt Primetime had a better chance in BP.

Most of the focus has been trained on Pattinson before reviews came out. Yet it’s worth noting that Wever and Gisondo are getting MVP shoutouts in write-ups. If Primetime exceeds expectations, either or both could come along for the ride. Adapted Screenplay and Cinematography and maybe Casting are also doable. Don’t be shocked, however, if only Pattinson is represented at the primetime ceremony and that’s a question mark. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: The Basics of Philosophy

New octogenarian Paul Schrader’s has been prolific over the past few years pumping out his dark morality tales and his latest is The Basics of Philosophy. It premiered out of competition at Venice while it awaits U.S. distribution. Jack Huston, Sofia Boutella, Daniel Zovatto, Bill Pullman, and Dana Delany (who costarred in Schrader’s 1992 Light Sleeper) are among the cast members.

Schrader received his one and only Oscar nomination for penning 2018’s First Reformed. This is pretty shocking considering the Academy didn’t recognize for screenwriting contributions for Taxi Driver, Raging Bull, or Affliction. Since Reformed, he’s written and directed The Card Counter, Master Gardener, and Oh, Canada and none of them have resonated with voters. Early WOM for Basics is mixed enough that it won’t enter the awards conversation either. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Bucking Fastard

Filmmaker Werner Herzog has been known more for his documentaries in recent years than fictional features. Yet he’s back in Venice (and then Telluride and Toronto) with the latter via Bucking Fastard. Real life sisters Rooney and Kate Mara headline as two siblings in the oddball drama where their characters share a rare emotional connection. Orlando Bloom and Domhnall Gleeson costar.

Herzog is known for eccentric tales and Fastard (with an eccentric title to boot) appears to fit that description. Critics are appreciating the work of the two leads while most reviews are more mixed on the picture itself. The Rotten Tomatoes rating is 68% with Metacritic at 58. This was never seen as much of an awards contender and reaction from Italy prove its chances are, well, bucked. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: By Any Means

Out this Labor Day weekend and not expected to make much of a box office splash is the historical crime drama By Any Means. It has quiet word-of-mouth and seems generic enough that I called it By All Means in my box office prediction post for it. Two or three days passed before I realized I had the wrong title. Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, Mark Wahlberg, Nicole Beharie, Josh Lucas, David Strathairn, and Giancarlo Esposito are among cast members.

To be fair, the reviews aren’t bad with 67% on Rotten Tomatoes and 56 on Metacritic. And perhaps it’ll bring in a larger than expected adult crowd over the holiday weekend. However, this was never seen as an awards player. That is… until a few days ago.

Enter Diane Warren. Oscar pundits know the name well. The prolific songwriter has been nominated 17 times for her original songs without a victory to show for it. That’s the most at bats without a home run. The Academy did give her an honorary statue in 2022. It was announced that Warren is behind the title track for Any, performed by the Isley Brothers and David Kushner. Warren currently stands at nine nominated tracks in a row dating back to 2017. Simply put, history indicates “By Any Means” could by all means become the 10th in succession. Once again, a win could be elusive. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…