2019 Oscar Predictions: October 25th Edition

My latest round of Oscar predictions brings the following developments:

  • Little Women has held industry screenings and greatly improved its chances at multiple nominations. It’s back in my predicted ten Best Picture contenders and that’s bad news for Ford v Ferrari.
  • Speaking of Ferrari, it was announced that Christian Bale will contend for Best Actor and not supporting, which is where I’ve had him predicted for weeks. This designation significantly decreases his shot and I have him ranked in 8th. The benefactor in Supporting Actor: Willem Dafoe for The Lighthouse.
  • Back to Little Women. The standout is said to be Florence Pugh, so I now have her down for Supporting Actress, knocking out Shuzhen Zhou in The Farewell.
  • Speaking of The Farewell, my fifth spot in Actress continues to change as that picture’s Awkwafina slides to sixth with Alfre Woodard (Clemency) in.
  • Once Upon a Time in Hollywood nabs the #1 slot in Picture over The Irishman. It’s a razor thin margin.

Let’s get to it!

BEST PICTURE 

Predicted Nominees:

1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Previous Ranking: 2)

2. The Irishman (PR: 1)

3. Marriage Story (PR: 4)

4. Parasite (PR: 3)

5. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 6)

6. 1917 (PR: 5)

7. Bombshell (PR: 9)

8. The Two Popes (PR: 8)

9. Little Women (PR: 12)

10. Joker (PR: 10)

Other Possibilities:

11. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 7)

12. The Farewell (PR: 11)

13. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 13)

14. Waves (PR: 14)

15. Richard Jewell (PR: 15)

BEST DIRECTOR 

Predicted Nominees:

1. Martin Scorsese, The Irishman (PR: 1)

2. Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 3)

3. Bong Joon-Ho, Parasite (PR: 2)

4. Sam Mendes, 1917 (PR: 4)

5. Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Greta Gerwig, Little Women (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit (PR: 6)

8. Jay Roach, Bombshell (PR: 10)

9. Todd Phillips, Joker (PR: Not Ranked)

10. James Mangold, Ford v Ferrari (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Lulu Wang, The Farewell

Pedro Almodovar, Pain and Glory 

BEST ACTOR 

Predicted Nominees:

1. Adam Driver, Marriage Story (PR: 1)

2. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker (PR: 2)

3. Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes (PR: 3)

4. Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 5)

5. Robert De Niro, The Irishman (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory (PR: 6)

7. Taron Egerton, Rocketman (PR: 7)

8. Christian Bale, Ford v Ferrari (PR: Not Ranked – moved from Supporting)

9. Eddie Murphy, Dolemite Is My Name (PR: 8)

10. Paul Walter Hauser, Richard Jewell (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Adam Sandler, Uncut Gems 

BEST ACTRESS 

Predicted Nominees:

1. Renee Zellweger, Judy (PR: 1)

2. Charlize Theron, Bombshell (PR: 2)

3. Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story (PR: 3)

4. Saoirse Ronan, Little Women (PR: 4)

5. Alfre Woodard, Clemency (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Awkwafina, The Farewell (PR: 5)

7. Cynthia Erivo, Harriet (PR: 7)

8. Lupita Nyong’o, Us (PR: 8)

9. Helen Mirren, The Good Liar (PR: 9)

10. Isabelle Huppert, Frankie (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Jodie Turner-Smith, Queen and Slim 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS 

Predicted Nominees:

1. Laura Dern, Marriage Story (PR: 1)

2. Margot Robbie, Bombshell (PR: 3)

3. Florence Pugh, Little Women (PR: 8)

4. Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers (PR: 2)

5. Annette Bening, The Report (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Shuzhen Zhou, The Farewell (PR: 5)

7. Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey (PR: 6)

9. Margot Robbie, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 7)

10. Thomasin McKenzie, Jojo Rabbit (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

Meryl Streep, Little Women 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Predicted Nominees:

1. Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)

2. Al Pacino, The Irishman (PR: 2)

3. Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes (PR: 4)

4. Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 3)

5. Willem Dafoe, The Lighthouse (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Joe Pesci, The Irishman (PR: 7)

7. Jamie Foxx, Just Mercy (PR: 8)

8. John Lithgow, Bombshell (PR: 9)

9. Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit (PR: 10)

10. Sterling K. Brown, Waves (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Christian Bale, Ford v Ferrari (moved to lead)

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY 

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Irishman (PR: 1)

2. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 2)

3. Little Women (PR: 6)

4. The Two Popes (PR: 3)

5. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Joker (PR: 5)

7. Just Mercy (PR: 7)

8. Judy (PR: 8)

9. Downton Abbey (PR: 9)

10. Richard Jewell (PR: 10)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY 

Predicted Nominees:

1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)

2. Marriage Story (PR: 1)

3. Parasite (PR: 3)

4. The Farewell (PR: 4)

5. Bombshell (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Pain and Glory (PR: 8)

7. Waves (PR: 6)

8. 1917 (PR: 7)

9. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 10)

10. Knives Out (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Booksmart 

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

Predicted Nominees:

1. Parasite (PR: 1)

2. Pain and Glory (PR: 2)

3. Les Miserables (PR: 4)

4. Those Who Remained (PR: 6)

5. Monos (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Atlantics (PR: 3)

7. Beanpole (PR: 7)

8. And Then We Danced (PR: 8)

9. A White, White Day (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Traitor (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

Papicha

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE 

Predicted Nominees:

1. Toy Story 4 (PR: 1)

2. Frozen II (PR: 2)

3. How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World (PR: 3)

4. Weathering with You (PR: 5)

5. I Lost My Body (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Missing Link (PR: 4)

7. Abominable (PR: 7)

8. Funan (PR: 9)

9. Okko’s Inn (PR: 10)

10. Klaus (PR: 8)

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE 

Predicted Nominees:

1. American Factory (PR: 2)

2. Apollo 11 (PR: 1)

3. One Child Nation (PR: 4)

4. The Cave (PR: 5)

5. Maiden (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Biggest Little Farm (PR: 6)

7. Diego Maradona (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Knock Down the House (PR: 10)

9. The Edge of Democracy (PR: 7)

10. Western Stars (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Aquarela

Rolling Thunder Revue: A Bob Dylan Story By Martin Scorsese 

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY 

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Irishman (PR: 2)

2. 1917 (PR: 1)

3. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 3)

4. A Hidden Life (PR: Not Ranked)

5. The Lighthouse (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Ad Astra (PR: 6)

7. Joker (PR: 9)

8. Parasite (PR: 4)

9. Portrait of a Lady on Fire (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 7)

Dropped Out:

Marriage Story 

Jojo Rabbit 

BEST COSTUME DESIGN 

Predicted Nominees:

1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)

2. Little Women (PR: 3)

3. Dolemite Is My Name (PR: 4)

4. Downton Abbey (PR: 1)

5. Rocketman (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Irishman (PR: 7)

7. Judy (PR: 6)

8. 1917 (PR: 9)

9. Joker (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Maleficent: Mistress of Evil (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Aladdin 

Jojo Rabbit 

BEST FILM EDITING 

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Irishman (PR: 1)

2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)

3. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 4)

4. Marriage Story (PR: 5)

5. 1917 (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Parasite (PR: 6)

7. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 7)

8. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 9)

9. Avengers: Endgame (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Joker (PR: 8)

Dropped Out:

Ad Astra 

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING 

Predicted Nominees:

1. Bombshell (PR: 2)

2. The Irishman (PR: 1)

3. Dolemite Is My Name (PR: 4)

4. Judy (PR: 3)

5. Joker (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Rocketman (PR: 9)

7. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 7)

8. The Aeronauts (PR: 8)

9. Little Women (PR: 5)

10. Cats (PR: 10)

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE 

Predicted Nominees:

1. 1917 (PR: 1

2. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 2)

3. Little Women (PR: 3)

4. Marriage Story (PR: 4)

5. A Hidden Life (PR: 8)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Aeronauts (PR: 6)

7. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 5)

8. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 7)

9. Joker (PR: 9)

10. Ad Astra 

Dropped Out:

Waves

BEST ORIGINAL SONG 

Predicted Nominees:

1. “Into the Unknown” from Frozen II (PR: 1)

2. “(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again” from Rocketman (PR: 2)

3. “Beautiful Ghosts” from Cats (PR: Not Ranked)

4. “Stand Up” from Harriet (PR: 3)

5. “Spirit” from The Lion King (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

6. “I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away” from Toy Story 4 (PR: 6)

7. “Speechless” from Aladdin (PR: 5)

8. “The Ballad of the Lonesome Cowboy” from Toy Story 4 (PR: 4)

9. “One Little Soldier” from Bombshell (PR: 8)

10. “Daily Battles” from Motherless Brooklyn (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

”Together From Afar” from How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World 

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN 

Predicted Nominees:

1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)

2. The Irishman (PR: 4)

3. Little Women (PR: 5)

4. 1917 (PR: 2)

5. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Parasite (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Cats (PR: 6)

8. Downton Abbey (PR: 10)

9. The Aeronauts (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 7)

Dropped Out:

Ford v Ferrari 

Aladdin 

BEST SOUND EDITING 

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 2)

2. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 3)

3. 1917 (PR: 1)

4. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 8)

5. Ad Astra (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Irishman (PR: 7)

7. Avengers: Endgame (PR: 5)

8. Rocketman (PR: 4)

9. Cats (PR: 9)

10. Us (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Lion King 

BEST SOUND MIXING 

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 1)

2. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 3)

3. 1917 (PR: 2)

4. Avengers: Endgame (PR: 6)

5. Ad Astra (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Rocketman (PR: 4)

7. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 9)

8. The Irishman (PR: 8)

9. Cats (PR: 7)

10. Joker (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Lion King 

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS 

Predicted Nominees:

1. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 2)

2. Avengers: Endgame (PR: 3)

3. The Irishman (PR: 1)

4. The Lion King (PR: 4)

5. Alita: Battle Angel (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Aeronauts (PR: 6)

7. Ad Astra (PR: 8)

8. Gemini Man (PR: 7)

9. 1917 (PR: 9)

10. Dumbo (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Godzilla: King of the Monsters 

And that equates to the following films getting the following number of nominations:

10 Nominations

The Irishman, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

8 Nominations

1917, Marriage Story 

7 Nominations

Little Women 

5 Nominations

Bombshell 

4 Nominations

Parasite, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, The Two Popes 

3 Nominations

Ford v Ferrari, Jojo Rabbit, Joker

2 Nominations

A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, Ad Astra, Avengers: Endgame, Dolemite Is My Name, Frozen II, A Hidden Life, Judy, The Lighthouse, The Lion King, Rocketman 

1 Nomination

Alita: Battle Angel, American Factory, Apollo 11, Cats, The Cave, Clemency, Downton Abbey, The Farewell, Harriet, How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World, Hustlers, I Lost My Body, Les Miserables, Maiden, Monos, One Child Nation, Pain and Glory, The Report, Those Who Remained, Toy Story 4, Weathering with You

2019 Oscar Predictions: October 17th Edition

My weekly Oscar predictions this Thursday brings a whole lot of changes in that I’m  including every category covering feature films! Additionally, there’s now only 15 listed possibilities in Best Picture and ten in all other races.

For this format, my projections show The Irishman garnering the most nominations with Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, 1917, and Marriage Story not far behind. Besides the cosmetic changes, here’s what else has transpired in the past seven days:

  • Bombshell, the true life of Fox News and the downfall of Roger Ailes, had its first industry screenings. The film immediately vaulted itself into contention in Picture, Actress, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, and Original Screenplay (as well as Makeup & Hairstyling).
  • My inclusion of Bombshell in Best Picture means The Farewell has been taken out with The Two Popes and Joker as other on the bubble entries.
  • Not only does Charlize Theron’s work in Bombshell enter my Best Actress projections, but she comes in at #2. That drops Cynthia Erivo in Harriet out of the top five for the first time.
  • Margot Robbie’s performance in the picture puts her in and she bumps… Margot Robbie in Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. 
  • In non Bombshell news, South Korean import Parasite had the best per screen average of 2019 in limited release. It’s the best reviewed movie of the year and its numbers game improves in Picture and Director this week.

BEST PICTURE 

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Irishman (PR: 1)

2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)

3. Parasite (PR: 6)

4. Marriage Story (PR: 3)

5. 1917 (PR: 4)

6. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 5)

7. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 7)

8. The Two Popes (PR: 9)

9. Bombshell (PR: 18)

10. Joker (PR: 10)

Other Possibilities:

11. The Farewell (PR: 8)

12. Little Women (PR: 12)

13. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 11)

14. Waves (PR: 13)

15. Richard Jewell (PR: 15)

Dropped Out:

Pain and Glory 

Judy

Just Mercy 

A Hidden Life 

Rocketman 

The Report 

Booksmart 

The Good Liar 

Dark Waters 

Ad Astra 

BEST DIRECTOR 

Predicted Nominees:

1. Martin Scorsese, The Irishman (PR: 1)

2. Bong Joon-Ho, Parasite (PR: 4)

3. Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)

4. Sam Mendes, 1917 (PR: 3)

5. Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit (PR: 6)

7. James Mangold, Ford v Ferrari (PR: 8)

8. Lulu Wang, The Farewell (PR: 7)

9. Pedro Almodovar, Pain and Glory (PR: 13)

10. Jay Roach, Bombshell (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Fernando Meirelles, The Two Popes 

Greta Gerwig, Little Women 

Marielle Heller, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood 

Terrence Malick, A Hidden Life

Todd Phillips, Joker

Clint Eastwood, Richard Jewell

BEST ACTOR 

Predicted Nominees:

1. Adam Driver, Marriage Story (PR: 1)

2. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker (PR: 2)

3. Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes (PR: 3)

4. Robert De Niro, The Irishman (PR: 5)

5. Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities: 

6. Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory (PR: 6)

7. Taron Egerton, Rocketman (PR: 8)

8. Eddie Murphy, Dolemite Is My Name (PR: 7)

9. Paul Walter Hauser, Richard Jewell (PR: 9)

10. Adam Sandler, Uncut Gems (PR: 11)

Dropped Out:

Michael B. Jordan, Just Mercy 

Ian McKellen, The Good Liar 

Mark Ruffalo, Dark Waters 

Brad Pitt, Ad Astra 

Robert Pattinson, The Lighthouse 

BEST ACTRESS

Predicted Nominees:

1. Renee Zellweger, Judy (PR: 1)

2. Charlize Theron, Bombshell (PR: 7)

3. Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story (PR: 2)

4. Saoirse Ronan, Little Women (PR: 4)

5. Awkwafina, The Farewell (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Alfre Woodard, Clemency (PR: 6)

7. Cynthia Erivo, Harriet (PR: 3)

8. Lupita Nyong’o, Us (PR: 8)

9. Helen Mirren, The Good Liar (PR: 9)

10. Jodie Turner-Smith, Queen and Slim (PR: 11)

Dropped Out:

Isabelle Huppert, Frankie

Beanie Feldstein, Booksmart 

Felicity Jones, The Aeronauts 

Elisabeth Moss, Her Smell

Julianne Moore, Gloria Bell

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR 

Predicted Nominees:

1. Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)

2. Al Pacino, The Irishman (PR: 2)

3. Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 4)

4. Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes (PR: 3)

5. Christian Bale, Ford v Ferrari (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Willem Dafoe, The Lighthouse (PR: 6)

7. Joe Pesci, The Irishman (PR: 7)

8. Jamie Foxx, Just Mercy (PR: 9)

9. John Lithgow, Bombshell (PR: 13)

10. Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit (PR: 8)

Dropped Out:

Sterling K. Brown, Waves

Alan Alda, Marriage Story 

Shia LaBeouf, Honey Boy 

Sam Rockwell, Jojo Rabbit 

Zack Gottsagen, The Peanut Butter Falcon 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS 

Predicted Nominees:

1. Laura Dern, Marriage Story (PR: 1)

2. Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers (PR: 2)

3. Margot Robbie, Bombshell (PR: 12)

4. Annette Bening, The Report (PR: 3)

5. Shuzhen Zhou, The Farewell (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey (PR: 6)

7. Margot Robbie, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 4)

8. Florence Pugh, Little Women (PR: 9)

9. Meryl Streep, Little Women (PR: 8)

10. Thomasin McKenzie, Jojo Rabbit (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit 

Jennifer Hudson, Cats

Nicole Kidman, Bombshell 

Penelope Cruz, Pain and Glory 

Da’Vine Joy Randolph, Dolemite Is My Name 

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Irishman (PR: 1)

2. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 2)

3. The Two Popes (PR: 3)

4. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 4)

5. Joker (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Little Women (PR: 6)

7. Just Mercy (PR: 8)

8. Judy (PR: 7)

9. Downton Abbey (PR: 9)

10. Richard Jewell (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

The Good Liar 

Dark Waters 

Hustlers

Toy Story 4

Luce 

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY 

Predicted Nominees:

1. Marriage Story (PR: 1)

2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)

3. Parasite (PR: 3)

4. The Farewell (PR: 4)

5. Bombshell (PR: 10)

Other Possibilities:

6. Waves (PR: 6)

7. 1917 (PR: 8)

8. Pain and Glory (PR: 5)

9. Booksmart (PR: 9)

10. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 7)

Dropped Out:

The Report

Honey Boy 

Dolemite Is My Name 

Knives Out 

Rocketman

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

Predicted Nominees:

1. Parasite 

2. Pain and Glory 

3. Atlantics 

4. Les Miserables 

5. Monos

Other Possibilities:

6. Those Who Remained 

7. Beanpole

8. And Then We Danced 

9. Papicha

10. The Traitor 

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Predicted Nominees:

1. Toy Story 4

2. Frozen II

3. How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World 

4. Missing Link

5. Weathering with You

Other Possibilities:

6. I Lost My Body

7. Abominable 

8. Klaus

9. Funan 

10. Okko’s Inn 

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Predicted Nominees:

1. Apollo 11

2. American Factory 

3. Maiden

4. One Child Nation

5. The Cave

Other Possibilities:

6. The Biggest Little Farm

7. The Edge of Democracy 

8. Aquarela

9. Rolling Thunder Revue: A Bob Dylan Story By Martin Scorsese 

10. Knock Down the House 

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY 

Predicted Nominees:

1. 1917

2. The Irishman 

3. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood 

4. Parasite 

5. The Lighthouse 

Other Possibilities:

6. Ad Astra

7. Ford v Ferrari

8. Marriage Story 

9. Joker

10. Jojo Rabbit 

BEST COSTUME DESIGN 

Predicted Nominees:

1. Downton Abbey 

2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood 

3. Little Women

4. Dolemite Is My Name 

5. Rocketman 

Other Possibilities:

6. Judy

7. The Irishman 

8. Aladdin 

9. 1917

10. Jojo Rabbit 

BEST EDITING

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Irishman

2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood 

3. 1917

4. Ford v Ferrari

5. Marriage Story 

Other Possibilities:

6. Parasite 

7. Jojo Rabbit 

8. Joker

9. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker 

10. Ad Astra 

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Irishman 

2. Bombshell

3. Judy

4. Dolemite Is My Name 

5. Little Women 

Other Possibilities:

6. Joker

7. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood 

8. The Aeronauts 

9. Rocketman 

10. Cats

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE 

Predicted Nominees:

1. 1917

2. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker 

3. Little Women 

4. Marriage Story 

5. Jojo Rabbit 

Other Possibilities:

6. The Aeronauts 

7. Ford v Ferrari 

8. A Hidden Life 

9. Joker

10. Waves 

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

Predicted Nominees:

1. “Into the Unknown” from Frozen II

2. “I’m Gonna Love Me Again” from Rocketman 

3. “Stand Up” from Harriet 

4. “The Ballad of the Lonesome Cowboy” from Toy Story 4

5. “Speechless” from Aladdin 

Other Possibilities:

6. “I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away” from Toy Story 4

7. “Spirit” from The Lion King 

8. “One Little Soldier” from Bombshell 

9. “Daily Battles” from Motherless Brooklyn 

10. “Together From Afar” from How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World 

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

Predicted Nominees:

1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood 

2. 1917

3. Jojo Rabbit 

4. The Irishman 

5. Little Women

Other Possibilities:

6. Cats

7. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker 

8. Ford v Ferrari

9. Aladdin

10. Downton Abbey 

BEST SOUND EDITING 

Predicted Nominees:

1. 1917

2. Ford v Ferrari

3. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker 

4. Rocketman

5. Avengers: Endgame 

Other Possibilities:

6. Ad Astra

7. The Irishman 

8. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood 

9. Cats

10. The Lion King 

BEST SOUND MIXING 

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ford v Ferrari

2. 1917

3. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker 

4. Rocketman 

5. Ad Astra 

Other Possibilities:

6. Avengers: Endgame 

7. Cats

8. The Irishman 

9. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood 

10. The Lion King 

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS 

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Irishman 

2. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker 

3. Avengers: Endgame 

4. The Lion King 

5. Alita: Battle Angel 

Other Possibilities:

6. The Aeronauts 

7. Gemini Man 

8. Ad Astra 

9. 1917

10. Godzilla: King of the Monsters 

So here’s I have the nominations playing out as far as numbers with each film:

10 Nominations 

The Irishman 

9 Nominations 

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood 

8 Nominations 

1917, Marriage Story 

5 Nominations 

Bombshell, Ford v Ferrari, Little Women, Parasite

4 Nominations 

Jojo Rabbit, Rocketman, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, The Two Popes 

3 Nominations 

The Farewell, Joker

2 Nominations 

A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, Avengers: Endgame, Dolemite Is My Name, Frozen II, Judy, Toy Story 4

1 Nomination

Ad Astra, Aladdin, Alita: Battle Angel, American Factory, Apollo 11, Atlantics, The Cave, Downton Abbey, Harriet, Hustlers, How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World, Les Miserables, The Lighthouse, The Lion King, Maiden, Missing Link, Monos, One Child Nation, Pain and Glory, The Report, Weathering with You

June 14-16 Box Office Predictions

A variety of new pictures debut or expand this weekend with franchise reboot Men in Black: International, another franchise reboot Shaft, critically appreciated comedy Late Night, and not so critically appreciated comedy The Dead Don’t Die hitting screens. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/06/05/men-in-black-international-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/06/06/shaft-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/06/09/__trashed/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/06/09/the-dead-dont-die-box-office-prediction/

With Chris Hemsworth and Tessa Thompson taking over lead roles from Will Smith and Tommy Lee Jones, International hopes to bring in a new generation of alien crime fighter aficionados. Yet this could go the way of last weekend’s Dark Phoenix, which set a franchise low for an opening weekend. I predict that a low 30s haul will achieve that dubious mark, but it should have little difficulty hitting #1.

My mid teens estimate for Shaft should put it in third after the sophomore frame of current champ The Secret Life of Pets 2, which itself suffered from an acute case of sequelitis.

The rest of the top five should be filled by holdovers Aladdin and Phoenix, which I anticipate having a severe drop just like Godzilla: King of the Monsters did in its second weekend.

As for Late Night, it had a terrific limited release on just four screens this past weekend, but it could face some difficulties with its 1500 theater release. My $4.5 million forecast puts it outside the top five. Same for The Dead Don’t Die, which I have at $1.8 million at its approximately 550 theater count.

And with that, my top five estimates for the weekend ahead:

1. Men in Black: International

Predicted Gross: $30.7 million

2. The Secret Life of Pets 2

Predicted Gross: $23.4 million

3. Shaft

Predicted Gross: $16.8 million

4. Aladdin

Predicted Gross: $15.7 million

5. Dark Phoenix

Predicted Gross: $11.8 million

Box Office Results (June 79)

It was not a good weekend to be a sequel as the two newbies placed 1-2, but with significantly less cash than their predecessors. The Secret Life of Pets 2 was first with $46.6 million, well under my estimate of $65.2 million. That’s not even half of the $104 million achieved by its 2016 predecessor and with Toy Story 4 on the horizon, it could fade quickly.

The X-Men franchise cratered as Dark Phoenix was second with $32.8 million compared to my $45.3 million projection. The previous lowest premiere in the series occurred in 2013 when The Wolverine made $53 million out of the gate. This fell more than $20 million under that. Studio Fox didn’t even bother sugarcoating it… it’s a serious flop. New owner Disney will need to figure out a new way to make this series of characters viable into the future.

Aladdin was third with $24.6 million (I said $26.5 million) for a three-week tally of $232 million.

Godzilla: King of the Monsters fell hard in its second frame with $15.4 million, under my $16.9 million prediction. It’s at $78 million.

Rocketman was fifth in its sophomore outing at $13.8 million (I said $14.9 million) for a ten day total of $50 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

June 7-9 Box Office Predictions

If there’s a theme to this first full June weekend at the box office, it might be sequels not matching up to what’s come before. The Secret Life of Pets 2 and Dark Phoenix are the two newbies hitting screens and you can peruse my detailed predictions for each of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/05/29/the-secret-life-of-pets-2-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/05/30/dark-phoenix-box-office-prediction/

The original Pets got off to an animated start three summers ago with $104 million. Part 2 is not expected to match it and I’m going with a mid 60s beginning. It should still face no issues topping the charts as the prospects for Dark Phoenix look dim.

It’s the final entry in the current iteration of the X-Men Universe and buzz appears lackluster (especially after the ho-hum reaction to 2016’s XMen: Apocalypse). My mid 40s take gives it the worst premiere of any X title thus far.

As for holdovers, Godzilla: King of the Monsters was a big disappointment and I anticipate a sophomore decline in the mid 50s range. That could drop it to fourth place with Aladdin in third and Rocketman rounding out the top five.

Here’s how I have the top 5 panning out:

1. The Secret Life of Pets 2

Predicted Gross: $65.2 million

2. Dark Phoenix

Predicted Gross: $45.3 million

3. Aladdin

Predicted Gross: $26.5 million

4. Godzilla: King of the Monsters

Predicted Gross: $16.9 million

5. Rocketman

Predicted Gross: $14.9 million

Box Office Results (May 31June 2)

As mentioned, Godzilla: King of the Monsters landed with a thud with $47.7 million – well below my $58.7 million projection. The reported $200 million dollar production made just over half of what 2014’s Godzilla ($91 million) took in for its start. Additionally it couldn’t reach the heights of 2017’s Kong: Skull Island and its $61 million rollout. The two creatures will face each other next spring in Godzilla vs. Kong.

Aladdin was second with $42.8 million in weekend #2 and held up a bit better than my $40.3 million estimate. The Disney live-action hit has amassed $185 million total.

The Elton John biopic Rocketman had a decent start in third with $25.7 million. I thought it would fly higher at $36.1 million. It’s still a fine opening for an R rated counter programming offering in blockbuster season, though it is just half of what Bohemian Rhapsody accomplished a few short months ago.

Blumhouse horror pic Ma with Octavia Spencer was fourth and landed in line with expectations at $18 million (I said $17.2 million). Considering its tiny $5 million price tag, it’s yet another profitable success for the studio.

John Wick: Chapter 3Parabellum was fifth with $11 million (I went with $12.7 million) as it brought its earnings to $125 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

 

May 31-June 2 Box Office Predictions

After a sizzling debut over the long Memorial Day weekend, Aladdin could slip to third as two heavy hitters join the fray: monster sequel Godzilla: King of the Monsters and critically lauded Elton John biopic Rocketman. We also have low budget Blumhouse horror pic Ma with Octavia Spencer that has breakout potential. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of the newcomers here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/05/23/godzilla-king-of-the-monsters-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/05/23/rocketman-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/05/24/ma-box-office-prediction/

Godzilla should manage to stomp the competition, but I do have it coming in lower than its 2014 predecessor and just under what 2017’s Kong: Skull Island achieved. As for Rocketman, there’s Oscar nod buzz for star Taron Egerton and the genre heat from last fall’s smash Bohemian Rhapsody. I have it debuting with about $15 million less than the Queen flick, but that still means mid 30s.

As for Ma, I have it over tripling its puny $5 million budget for fourth place. Aladdin may experience a mid 50s dip after ruling the holiday and John Wick: Chapter 3Parabellum should round out the top five.

And with that, my forecast for the weekend:

1. Godzilla: King of the Monsters

Predicted Gross: $58.7 million

2. Aladdin

Predicted Gross: $40.3 million

3. Rocketman

Predicted Gross: $36.1 million

4. Ma

Predicted Gross: $17.2 million

5. John Wick: Chapter 3Parabellum

Predicted Gross: $12.7 million

Box Office Results (May 2427)

Despite a poorly received first trailer and questions about its potency with audiences, Disney’s Aladdin exceeded all expectations and granted the studio’s money-making wishes with $116.8 million. That blew away my $74.8 million estimate.

John Wick: Chapter 3Parabellum dropped to second with $30.9 million over the four-day, topping my $27 million take. The Keanu Reeves action sequel is already at $107 million in two weeks and has the set the franchise record domestically.

Avengers: Endgame was third with $22 million (I said $22.5 million), hitting an astonishing $803 million.

Pokemon: Detective Pikachu was fourth with $17.2 million compared to my $16.4 million projection and $120 million thus far.

All newbies without a blue genie struggled. Horror superhero tale Brightburn was fifth with $9.6 million. I was right on target at $9.7 million. Acclaimed high school comedy Booksmart was sixth with $8.7 million. Again, I was on the money with an $8.6 million prediction.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Godzilla: King of the Monsters Box Office Prediction

Continuing its own cinematic universe that will lead to two monstrous creatures facing off next spring, Godzilla: King of the Monsters stomps into multiplexes next weekend. The reported $200 million dollar film is a sequel to 2014’s Godzilla reboot from Gareth Edwards. Michael Dougherty takes over directorial duties with a cast including Kyle Chandler, Vera Farmiga, Millie Bobby Brown of “Stranger Things” fame, Bradley Whitford, Charles Dance, Thomas Middleditch, and O’Shea Jackson Jr. Returnees from part one are Sally Hawkins, David Strathairn, and Ken Watanabe.

As mentioned, Monsters is part of a larger Warner Bros scheme to get the giant green nuclear waste creation to grapple with the world’s best known giant ape. Godzilla vs. Kong  will hit screens in March of 2020. Five summers ago, Godzilla debuted to a cool $91 million on its way to $200 million domestically. In 2017, Kong: Skull Island made $61 million out of the gate and $168 million total.

I would anticipate we’ll see Kong money and not Godzilla cash here and perhaps a bit less. Mid to high 50s seems probable with overseas earnings expected to be anything but toxic.

Godzilla: King of the Monsters opening weekend prediction: $58.7 million

For my Rocketman prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/05/23/rocketman-box-office-prediction/

For my Ma prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/05/24/ma-box-office-prediction/