Blogger’s Note (01/29): Revising my estimate from $8 million down to $6.5 million
Paramount is hoping their spy thriller The Rhythm Section makes sweet music at the box office next weekend, but it’s likely to face an uphill battle. Reed Morano directs Blake Lively as a woman investigating the death of her family in a plane crash. Costars include Jude Law, Sterling K. Brown, and Max Casella.
Like many titles that end up in January, Section has seen its release date delayed from February to November 2019 and now this. Looking at comps in similar genre territory, 2011’s Hanna took in just over $12 million for its start. In 2012, Haywire premiered with $8.4 million.
Without much buzz surrounding it, I could see Rhythm falling in between those numbers. That puts it just under or just over double digits.
The Rhythm Section opening weekend prediction: $6.5 million
It’s been two weeks since I’ve prognosticated Oscar picks on the blog and a lot has happened since then. The precursors are coming out in full force with the Golden Globe nominations out this morning and numerous critics bestowing their awards or nods.
The Globes potentially provided a needed boost to The Two Popes and displayed a better than anticipated showing for Joker.
So how have my estimates changed in the last 14 days? There’s been one change in all major categories with the exception of Director and Adapted Screenplay. They are:
In Best Picture, I’ve put Ford v Ferrari back in and taken out Bombshell. The official review embargo for Bombshell lapsed and the current Rotten Tomatoes score is 60%. It could still sneak in, but with that rating and a lack of precursor love, it’s certainly fallen.
My ongoing struggle with picking Best Actor candidates continues. Whittling it down to five is a challenge and that’s an understatement. As has been discussed previously, I truly believe all 10 listed performers could get in. For that matter, so could Paul Walter Hauser for Richard Jewell if that film does better with Academy voters than expected. This is the first time I have Leonardo DiCaprio on the outside looking in with Antonio Banderas (recipient of some precursors) getting in. Look for this saga to continue until nominations morning.
In Best Actress, I’ve got Awkwafina in over Cynthia Erivo. This is basically a coin flip for the five spot and there’s also Lupita Nyong’o (another precursor favorite) as a spoiler.
Joe Pesci has done quite well in the precursors. He’s in over Willem Dafoe for Supporting Actor.
Annette Bening is back in the fold over Zhao Shuzhen in Supporting Actress.
I’m putting Knives Out in Original Screenplay and that takes out Pain and Glory.
You can read the rest of the happenings below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Irishman (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)
3. Marriage Story (PR: 4)
4. Parasite (PR: 5)
5. 1917 (PR: 3)
6. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 6)
7. Little Women (PR: 7)
8. Joker (PR: 8)
9. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 11)
10. The Two Popes (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
11. The Farewell (PR: 12)
12. Knives Out (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Uncut Gems (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Richard Jewell (PR: 13)
15. Bombshell (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Rocketman
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Martin Scorsese, The Irishman (PR: 1)
2. Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 4)
3. Bong Joon-Ho, Parasite (PR: 3)
4. Sam Mendes, 1917 (PR: 2)
5. Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Greta Gerwig, Little Women (PR: 6)
7. James Mangold, Ford v Ferrari (PR: 9)
8. Todd Phillips, Joker (PR: 7)
9. Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit (PR: 8)
10. Ben and Josh Safdie, Uncut Gems (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Fernando Meirelles, The Two Popes
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Adam Driver, Marriage Story (PR: 1)
2. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker (PR: 2)
3. Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory (PR: 6)
4. Robert De Niro, The Irishman (PR: 3)
5. Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 4)
7. Adam Sandler, Uncut Gems (PR: 10)
8. Eddie Murphy, Dolemite Is My Name (PR: 7)
9. Christian Bale, Ford v Ferrari (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Taron Egerton, Rocketman (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Paul Walter Hauser, Richard Jewell
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Renee Zellweger, Judy (PR: 1)
2. Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story (PR: 2)
3. Charlize Theron, Bombshell (PR: 3)
4. Saoirse Ronan, Little Women (PR: 5)
5. Awkwafina, The Farewell (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Cynthia Erivo, Harriet (PR: 5)
7. Lupita Nyong’o, Us (PR: 8)
8. Alfre Woodard, Clemency (PR: 7)
9. Mary Kay Place, Diane (PR: 10)
10. Elisabeth Moss, Her Smell (PR: 9)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)
2. Al Pacino, The Irishman (PR: 2)
3. Joe Pesci, The Irishman (PR: 6)
4. Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 5)
5. Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Willem Dafoe, The Lighthouse (PR: 4)
7. Shia LaBeouf, Honey Boy (PR: 7)
8. Song Kang-Ho, Parasite (PR: 9)
9. Sam Rockwell, Richard Jewell (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Wesley Snipes, Dolemite Is My Name (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Sterling K. Brown, Waves
John Lithgow, Bombshell
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Laura Dern, Marriage Story (PR: 1)
2. Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers (PR: 2)
3. Margot Robbie, Bombshell (PR: 3)
4. Florence Pugh, Little Women (PR: 5)
5. Annette Bening, The Report (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Zhao Shuzhen, The Farewell (PR: 4)
7. Kathy Bates, Richard Jewell (PR: 8)
8. Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit (PR: 6)
9. Nicole Kidman, Bombshell (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Taylor Russell, Waves (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey
Margot Robbie, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Irishman (PR: 1)
2. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 2)
3. The Two Popes (PR: 3)
4. Joker (PR: 5)
5. Little Women (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Hustlers (PR: 7)
7. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 6)
8. Richard Jewell (PR: 8)
9. Just Mercy (PR: 9)
10. Dark Waters (PR: 10)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Marriage Story (PR: 2)
2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)
3. Parasite (PR: 3)
4. The Farewell (PR: 4)
5. Knives Out (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Pain and Glory (PR: 5)
7. Uncut Gems (PR: Not Ranked)
8. 1917 (PR: 7)
9. Bombshell (PR: 6)
10. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Honey Boy
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Parasite (PR: 1)
2. Pain and Glory (PR: 2)
3. Les Miserables (PR: 3)
4. Monos (PR: 4)
5. Invisible Life (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Atlantics (PR: 7)
7. A White, White Day (PR: 10)
8. Beanpole (PR: 8)
9. And Then We Danced (PR: 5)
10. Those Who Remained (PR: 9)
Best Animated Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Toy Story 4 (PR: 1)
2. Frozen II (PR: 2)
3. How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World (PR: 3)
4. I Lost My Body (PR: 4)
5. Missing Link (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Klaus (PR: 6)
7. Abominable (PR: 7)
8. Weathering with You (PR: 5)
9. Bunuel in the Labyrinth of the Turtles (PR: 9)
10. Funan (PR: 10)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. American Factory (PR: 1)
2. Apollo 11 (PR: 4)
3. One Child Nation (PR: 2)
4. For Sama (PR: 5)
5. Sea of Shadows (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Cave (PR: 6)
7. Honeyland (PR: 8)
8. The Biggest Little Farm (PR: 7)
9. The Edge of Democracy (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Maiden (PR: 3)
Dropped Out:
The Kingmaker
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. 1917 (PR: 1)
2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)
3. Joker (PR: 5)
4. The Irishman (PR: 3)
5. The Lighthouse (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Portrait of a Lady on Fire (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Parasite (PR: 6)
8. The Two Popes (PR: Not Ranked)
9. A Hidden Life (PR: 7)
10. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 8)
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Little Women (PR: 1)
2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)
3. Dolemite Is My Name (PR: 3)
4. Rocketman (PR: 4)
5. Downton Abbey (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jojo Rabbit (PR: Not Ranked)
7. The Irishman (PR: 6)
8. Aladdin (PR: 10)
9. The Aeronauts (PR: 8)
10. Cats (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Judy
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Irishman (PR: 1)
2. 1917 (PR: 3)
3. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)
4. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 4)
5. Marriage Story (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Parasite (PR: 5)
7. Joker (PR: 7)
8. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The Two Popes (PR: 10)
10. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Bombshell
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Bomshell (PR: 1)
2. The Irishman (PR: 2)
3. Judy (PR: 3)
4. Dolemite Is My Name (PR: 4)
5. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joker (PR: 7)
7. Us (PR: 5)
8. Rocketman (PR: 8)
9. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 9)
10. Cats (PR: 10)
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)
2. 1917 (PR: 3)
3. The Irishman (PR: 4)
4. Little Women (PR: 2)
5. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Parasite (PR: 6)
7. Joker (PR: 7)
8. Downton Abbey (PR: 10)
9. The Two Popes (PR: 8)
10. Ford v Ferrari (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Cats
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. 1917 (PR: 1)
2. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 3)
3. Marriage Story (PR: 4)
4. Little Women (PR: 2)
5. Joker (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 6)
7. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 8)
8. Us (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The Aeronauts (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Waves (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
A Hidden Life
Ad Astra
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Into the Unknown” from Frozen II (PR: 1)
2. “(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again” from Rocketman (PR: 2)
3. “Beautiful Ghosts” from Cats (PR: 4)
4. “Stand Up” from Harriet (PR: 3)
5. “Spirit” from The Lion King (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. “I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away” from Toy Story 4 (PR: 7)
7. “Speechless” from Aladdin (PR: 5)
8. “I’m Standing with You” from Breakthrough (PR: Not Ranked)
9. “Glasgow” from Wild Rose (PR: 9)
10. “Daily Battles” from Motherless Brooklyn (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
“Together From Afar” from How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
Best Sound Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. 1917 (PR: 1)
2. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 2)
3. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 3)
4. Avengers: Endgame (PR: 4)
5. Ad Astra (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Rocketman (PR: 6)
7. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 9)
8. Joker (PR: 8)
9. The Irishman (PR: 7)
10. Cats (PR: 10)
Best Sound Mixing
Predicted Nominees:
1. 1917 (PR: 1)
2. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 2)
3. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 3)
4. Rocketman (PR: 5)
5. Joker (PR: 10)
Other Possibilities:
6. Avengers: Endgame (PR: 4)
7. Cats (PR: 8)
8. Ad Astra (PR: 6)
9. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 7)
10. The Irishman (PR: 9)
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Irishman (PR: 1)
2. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 2)
3. The Lion King (PR: 4)
4. Avengers: Endgame (PR: 3)
5. The Aeronauts (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. 1917 (PR: 7)
7. Ad Astra (PR: 6)
8. Alita: Battle Angel (PR: 8)
9. Gemini Man (PR: 9)
10. Aladdin (PR: 10)
And that equates to these pictures getting the following number of nominations:
11 Nominations
The Irishman
9 Nominations
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
8 Nominations
1917, Marriage Story
7 Nominations
Little Women
6 Nominations
Joker
4 Nominations
Ford v Ferrari, Parasite, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, The Two Popes
3 Nominations
Bombshell, Jojo Rabbit, Rocketman
2 Nominations
Avengers: Endgame, Dolemite Is My Name, The Farewell, Frozen II, Judy, The Lion King, Pain and Glory
1 Nomination
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, Ad Astra, The Aeronauts, American Factory, Apollo 11, Cats, Downton Abbey, For Sama, Harriet, How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World, Hustlers, I Lost My Body, Invisible Life, Knives Out, Les Miserables, The Lighthouse, Missing Link, Monos, One Child Nation, The Report, Sea of Shadows, Toy Story 4
Two key screenings took place over the week with significant Oscar implications and there’s some movement in major categories to discuss:
1917, the World War I epic from Sam Mendes, finally availed itself to critics and the feedback is extremely positive. While I’d had it projected for Picture and Director for some time, its numbers (3 and 2 respectively) are the highest yet.
Clint Eastwood’s Richard Jewell screened at AFI Fest. Some reviews indicate it’s a contender in Picture, but I’m not quite there. It does vault back in the 15 possibilities at 13 and both Paul Walter Hauser in Actor and Kathy Bates in Supporting Actress are now in the mix, but not projected in the top five.
Bombshell is back in my ten projected Picture nominees over Ford v Ferrari.
Zhao Shuzhen finally makes the cut in Supporting Actress, displacing Scarlett Johansson in Jojo Rabbit.
Tom Hanks slides to fifth in Supporting Actor after the so-so box office performance of A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood. I suspect he could fall out with Joe Pesci (The Irishman) and Shia LaBeouf (Honey Boy) hot on his heels.
While my five Best Actor contenders remain the same, this is the most packed field in ages. I could legitimately see any of my ten listed thespians getting in, as well as Christian Bale (who falls to 11th).
Let’s get to it!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Irishman (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)
3. 1917 (PR: 6)
4. Marriage Story (PR: 4)
5. Parasite (PR: 3)
6. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 5)
7. Little Women (PR: 7)
8. Joker (PR: 8)
9. The Two Popes (PR: 9)
10. Bombshell (PR: 11)
Other Possibilities:
11. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 10)
12. The Farewell (PR: 12)
13. Richard Jewell (PR: Not Ranked)
14. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 13)
15. Rocketman (PR: 14)
Dropped Out:
Waves
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Martin Scorsese, The Irishman (PR: 1)
2. Sam Mendes, 1917 (PR: 5)
3. Bong Joon-Ho, Parasite (PR: 3)
4. Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)
5. Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Greta Gerwig, Little Women (PR: 6)
7. Todd Phillips, Joker (PR: 9)
8. Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit (PR: 8)
9. James Mangold, Ford v Ferrari (PR: 7)
10. Fernando Meirelles, The Two Popes (PR: 10)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Adam Driver, Marriage Story (PR: 1)
2. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker (PR: 2)
3. Robert De Niro, The Irishman (PR: 3)
4. Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 5)
5. Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory (PR: 6)
7. Eddie Murphy, Dolemite Is My Name (PR: 8)
8. Taron Egerton, Rocketman (PR: 7)
9. Paul Walter Hauser, Richard Jewell (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Adam Sandler, Uncut Gems (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Christian Bale, Ford v Ferrari
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Renee Zellweger, Judy (PR: 1)
2. Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story (PR: 2)
3. Charlize Theron, Bombshell (PR: 3)
4. Saoirse Ronan, Little Women (PR: 4)
5. Cynthia Erivo, Harriet (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Awkwafina, The Farewell (PR: 6)
7. Alfre Woodard, Clemency (PR: 8)
8. Lupita Nyong’o, Us (PR: 7)
9. Elisabeth Moss, Her Smell (PR: 9)
10. Mary Kay Place, Diane (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jodie Turner-Smith, Queen and Slim
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Laura Dern, Marriage Story (PR: 1)
2. Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers (PR: 3)
3. Margot Robbie, Bombshell (PR: 2)
4. Zhao Shuzhen, The Farewell (PR: 6)
5. Florence Pugh, Little Women (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit (PR: 5)
7. Annette Bening, The Report (PR: 7)
8. Kathy Bates, Richard Jewell (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey (PR: 8)
10. Margot Robbie, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Thomasin McKenzie, Jojo Rabbit
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)
2. Al Pacino, The Irishman (PR: 2)
3. Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes (PR: 5)
4. Willem Dafoe, The Lighthouse (PR: 3)
5. Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joe Pesci, The Irishman (PR: 7)
7. Shia LaBeouf, Honey Boy (PR: 6)
8. Sterling K. Brown, Waves (PR: 9)
9. Song Kang-Ho, Parasite (PR: 8)
10. John Lithgow, Bombshell (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jamie Foxx, Just Mercy
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)
2. Marriage Story (PR: 1)
3. Parasite (PR: 3)
4. The Farewell (PR: 4)
5. Pain and Glory (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Bombshell (PR: 6)
7. 1917 (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Knives Out (PR: 7)
9. Honey Boy (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Booksmart
Waves
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Irishman (PR: 1)
2. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 2)
3. The Two Popes (PR: 4)
4. Little Women (PR: 3)
5. Joker (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 6)
7. Hustlers (PR: 9)
8. Richard Jewell (PR: 8)
9. Just Mercy (PR: 7)
10. Dark Waters (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Downton Abbey
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Parasite (PR: 1)
2. Pain and Glory (PR: 2)
3. Les Miserables (PR: 3)
4. Monos (PR: 8)
5. And Then We Danced (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Invisible Life (PR: 6)
7. Atlantics (PR: 7)
8. Beanpole (PR: 5)
9. Those Who Remained (PR: 9)
10. A White, White Day (PR: 10)
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Toy Story 4 (PR: 1)
2. Frozen II (PR: 2)
3. How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World (PR: 3)
4. I Lost My Body (PR: 4)
5. Weathering with You (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Klaus (PR: 8)
7. Abominable (PR: 6)
8. Missing Link (PR: 7)
9. Bunuel in the Labyrinth of the Turtles (PR: 9)
10. Funan (PR: 10)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. American Factory (PR: 1)
2. One Child Nation (PR: 2)
3. Maiden (PR: 6)
4. Apollo 11 (PR: 5)
5. For Sama (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Cave (PR: 3)
7. The Biggest Little Farm (PR: 7)
8. Honeyland (PR: 4)
9. Sea of Shadows (PR: 8)
10. The Kingmaker (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Edge of Democracy
Knock Down the House
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. 1917 (PR: 1)
2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)
3. The Irishman (PR: 3)
4. The Lighthouse (PR: 4)
5. Joker (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Parasite (PR: 9)
7. A Hidden Life (PR: 7)
8. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 8)
9. Little Women (PR: 10)
10. Ad Astra (PR: 6)
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Little Women (PR: 2)
2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)
3. Dolemite Is My Name (PR: 4)
4. Rocketman (PR: 5)
5. Downton Abbey (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Irishman (PR: 6)
7. Judy (PR: 10)
8. The Aeronauts (PR: 7)
9. Cats (PR: 9)
10. Aladdin (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jojo Rabbit
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Irishman (PR: 1)
2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 3)
3. 1917 (PR: 4)
4. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 2)
5. Parasite (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Marriage Story (PR: 6)
7. Joker (PR: 9)
8. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 7)
9. Bombshell (PR: 8)
10. The Two Popes (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Rocketman
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Bombshell (PR: 1)
2. The Irishman (PR: 2)
3. Judy (PR: 3)
4. Dolemite Is My Name (PR: 5)
5. Us (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 4)
7. Joker (PR: 6)
8. Rocketman (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 9)
10. Cats (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
The Aeronauts
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)
2. Little Women (PR: 2)
3. 1917 (PR: 5)
4. The Irishman (PR: 3)
5. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Parasite (PR: 6)
7. Joker (PR: 7)
8. The Two Popes (PR: 10)
9. Cats (PR: 8)
10. Downton Abbey (PR: 9)
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. 1917 (PR: 1)
2. Little Women (PR: 2)
3. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 3)
4. Marriage Story (PR: 5)
5. Joker (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 8)
7. A Hidden Life (PR: 7)
8. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 6)
9. Waves (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Ad Astra (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
The Aeronauts
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Into the Unknown” from Frozen II (PR: 1)
2. “(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again” from Rocketman (PR: 2)
3. “Stand Up” from Harriet (PR: 4)
4. “Beautiful Ghosts” from Cats (PR: 3)
5. “Speechless” from Aladdin (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Spirit” from The Lion King (PR: 5)
7. “I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away” from Toy Story 4 (PR: 10)
8. “Daily Battles” from Motherless Brooklyn (PR: 6)
9. “Glasgow” from Wild Rose (PR: Not Ranked)
10. “Together From Afar” from How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
“Show Yourself” from Frozen II
Best Sound Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. 1917 (PR: 2)
2. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 1)
3. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 3)
4. Avengers: Endgame (PR: 5)
5. Ad Astra (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Rocketman (PR: 6)
7. The Irishman (PR: 7)
8. Joker (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 8)
10. Cats (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
The Aeronauts
Best Sound Mixing
Predicted Nominees:
1. 1917 (PR: 1)
2. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 2)
3. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 3)
4. Avengers: Endgame (PR: 6)
5. Rocketman (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ad Astra (PR: 5)
7. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 7)
8. Cats (PR: 8)
9. The Irishman (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Joker (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Judy
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Irishman (PR: 1)
2. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 2)
3. Avengers: Endgame (PR: 3)
4. The Lion King (PR: 4)
5. The Aeronauts (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ad Astra (PR: 6)
7. 1917 (PR: 10)
8. Alita: Battle Angel (PR: 8)
9. Gemini Man (PR: 7)
10. Aladdin (PR: 9)
And this all equates to these pictures nabbing the following numbers of nods:
10 Nominations
The Irishman
9 Nominations
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
8 Nominations
1917
7 Nominations
Little Women, Marriage Story
5 Nominations
Joker, Parasite
4 Nominations
Bombshell, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, The Two Popes
3 Nominations
Avengers: Endgame, Ford v Ferrari, Jojo Rabbit, Rocketman
2 Nominations
Dolemite Is My Name, The Farewell, Frozen II, Harriet, Judy, The Lighthouse, Pain and Glory
1 Nomination
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, Ad Astra, The Aeronauts, Aladdin, American Factory, And Then We Danced, Apollo 11, Cats, Downton Abbey, For Sama, How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World, Hustlers, I Lost My Body, Les Miserables, The Lion King, Maiden, Monos, One Child Nation, Toy Story 4, Us, Weathering with You
The pleasing box office performance of Ford v Ferrari assists in putting it back in my top ten predicted Best Picture guesses. It does so by displacing Bombshell, which I still certainly consider to be a very viable candidate.
While my five Best Actor estimates remains the same, this is the most competitive field in ages and that’s without official advance word on Paul Walter Hauser in Richard Jewell (which screens this week). I truly believe all ten listed thespians could get in.
I’m starting to feel that the never nominated Scarlett Johansson is going to a double nominee. I’ve vaulted her into the top 5 for Supporting Actress for Jojo Rabbit, in addition to her already likely nod in lead for Marriage Story. In Supporting, she gets in over Annette Bening in The Report.
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Irishman (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)
3. Parasite (PR: 3)
4. Marriage Story (PR: 4)
5. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 5)
6. 1917 (PR: 7)
7. Little Women (PR: 6)
8. Joker (PR: 10)
9. The Two Popes (PR: 8)
10. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 11)
Other Possibilities:
11. Bombshell (PR: 9)
12. The Farewell (PR: 12)
13. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 13)
14. Rocketman (PR: 14)
15. Waves (PR: 15)
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Martin Scorsese, The Irishman (PR: 1)
2. Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 3)
3. Bong Joon-Ho, Parasite (PR: 2)
4. Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story (PR: 4)
5. Sam Mendes, 1917 (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Greta Gerwig, Little Women (PR: 6)
7. James Mangold, Ford v Ferrari (PR: 8)
8. Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit (PR: 7)
9. Todd Phillips, Joker (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Fernando Meirelles, The Two Popes (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Lulu Wang, The Farewell
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Renee Zellweger, Judy (PR: 1)
2. Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story (PR: 2)
3. Charlize Theron, Bombshell (PR: 3)
4. Saoirse Ronan, Little Women (PR: 4)
5. Cynthia Erivo, Harriet (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Awkwafina, The Farewell (PR: 6)
7. Lupita Nyong’o, Us (PR: 7)
8. Alfre Woodard, Clemency (PR: 8)
9. Elisabeth Moss, Her Smell (PR: 9)
10. Jodie Turner-Smith, Queen and Slim (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Felicity Jones, The Aeronauts
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Adam Driver, Marriage Story (PR: 1)
2. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker (PR: 2)
3. Robert De Niro, The Irishman (PR: 3)
4. Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes (PR: 5)
5. Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory (PR: 6)
7. Taron Egerton, Rocketman (PR: 8)
8. Eddie Murphy, Dolemite Is My Name (PR: 7)
9. Christian Bale, Ford v Ferrari (PR: 9)
10. Adam Sandler, Uncut Gems (PR: 10)
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Laura Dern, Marriage Story (PR: 1)
2. Margot Robbie, Bombshell (PR: 3)
3. Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers (PR: 2)
4. Florence Pugh, Little Women (PR: 4)
5. Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Zhou Shuzhen, The Farewell (PR: 6)
7. Annette Bening, The Report (PR: 5)
8. Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey (PR: 8)
9. Thomasin McKenzie, Jojo Rabbit (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Margot Robbie, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Nicole Kidman, Bombshell
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)
2. Al Pacino, The Irishman (PR: 2)
3. Willem Dafoe, The Lighthouse (PR: 4)
4. Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 3)
5. Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Shia LaBeouf, Honey Boy (PR: 6)
7. Joe Pesci, The Irishman (PR: 7)
8. Song Kang-Ho, Parasite (PR: 8)
9. Sterling K. Brown, Waves (PR: 10)
10. Jamie Foxx, Just Mercy (PR: 9)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Irishman (PR: 1)
2. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 2)
3. Little Women (PR: 3)
4. The Two Popes (PR: 4)
5. Joker (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 5)
7. Just Mercy (PR: 7)
8. Richard Jewell (PR: 8)
9. Hustlers (PR: 10)
10. Downton Abbey (PR: 9)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Marriage Story (PR: 1)
2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)
3. Parasite (PR: 3)
4. The Farewell (PR: 4)
5. Pain and Glory (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Bombshell (PR: 6)
7. Knives Out (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Booksmart (PR: 7)
9. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 9)
10. Waves (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Honey Boy
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Parasite (PR: 1)
2. Pain and Glory (PR: 2)
3. Les Miserables (PR: 3)
4. And Then We Danced (PR: 7)
5. Beanpole (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Invisible Life (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Atlantics (PR: 4)
8. Monos (PR: 6)
9. Those Who Remained (PR: 9)
10. A White, White Day (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Papicha
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Toy Story 4 (PR: 1)
2. Frozen II (PR: 2)
3. How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World (PR: 3)
4. I Lost My Body (PR: 4)
5. Weathering with You (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Abominable (PR: 6)
7. Missing Link (PR: 7)
8. Klaus (PR: 9)
9. Bunuel in the Labyrinth of the Turtles (PR: 8)
10. Funan (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Spies in Disguise
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. American Factory (PR: 1)
2. One Child Nation (PR: 2)
3. The Cave (PR: 3)
4. Honeyland (PR: 7)
5. Apollo 11 (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Maiden (PR: 4)
7. The Biggest Little Farm (PR: 6)
8. Sea of Shadows (PR: 10)
9. The Edge of Democracy (PR: 9)
10. Knock Down the House (PR: 8)
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. 1917 (PR: 1)
2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 3)
3. The Irishman (PR: 2)
4. The Lighthouse (PR: 4)
5. Joker (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ad Astra (PR: 8)
7. A Hidden Life (PR: 7)
8. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 6)
9. Parasite (PR: 9)
10. Little Women (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Marriage Story
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)
2. Little Women (PR: 5)
3. Downton Abbey (PR: 2)
4. Dolemite Is My Name (PR: 4)
5. Rocketman (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Irishman (PR: 6)
7. The Aeronauts (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 8)
9. Cats (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Judy (PR: 7)
Dropped Out:
Joker
Dumbo
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Irishman (PR: 1)
2. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 2)
3. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 3)
4. 1917 (PR: 6)
5. Parasite (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Marriage Story (PR: 5)
7. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 8)
8. Bombshell (PR: 7)
9. Joker (PR: 9)
10. Rocketman (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Avengers: Endgame
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Bombshell (PR: 1)
2. The Irishman (PR: 2)
3. Judy (PR: 3)
4. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 4)
5. Dolemite Is My Name (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joker (PR: 7)
7. Us (PR: 10)
8. The Aeronauts (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 8)
10. Cats (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Rocketman
The Two Popes
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)
2. Little Women (PR: 3)
3. The Irishman (PR: 2)
4. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 6)
5. 1917 (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Parasite (PR: 5)
7. Joker (PR: 9)
8. Cats (PR: 7)
9. Downton Abbey (PR: 8)
10. The Two Popes (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Aeronauts
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. 1917 (PR: 1)
2. Little Women (PR: 2)
3. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 3)
4. Joker (PR: 5)
5. Marriage Story (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 8)
7. A Hidden Life (PR: 7)
8. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 6)
9. The Aeronauts (PR: 9)
10. Ad Astra (PR: 10)
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Into the Unknown” from Frozen II (PR: 1)
2. “(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again” from Rocketman (PR: 2)
3. “Beautiful Ghosts” from Cats (PR: 4)
4. “Stand Up” from Harriet (PR: 3)
5. “Spirit” from The Lion King (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Daily Battles” from Motherless Brooklyn (PR: 7)
7. “Speechless” from Aladdin (PR: 6)
8. “Show Yourself” from Frozen II (PR: Not Ranked)
9. “Together From Afar” from How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World (PR: 9)
10. “I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away” from Toy Story 4 (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
“I’m Standing with You” from Breakthrough
Best Sound Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 2)
2. 1917 (PR: 1)
3. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 3)
4. Ad Astra (PR: 5)
5. Avengers: Endgame (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Rocketman (PR: 6)
7. The Irishman (PR: 8)
8. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 7)
9. Cats (PR: 9)
10. The Aeronauts (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Richard Jewell
Best Sound Mixing
Predicted Nominees:
1. 1917 (PR: 1)
2. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 2)
3. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 3)
4. Rocketman (PR: 4)
5. Ad Astra (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Avengers: Endgame (PR: 5)
7. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 7)
8. Cats (PR: 8)
9. Joker (PR: 10)
10. Judy (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Irishman
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Irishman (PR: 1)
2. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 2)
3. Avengers: Endgame (PR: 4)
4. The Lion King (PR: 3)
5. The Aeronauts (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ad Astra (PR: 6)
7. Gemini Man (PR: 7)
8. Alita: Battle Angel (PR: 9)
9. Aladdin (PR: Not Ranked)
10. 1917 (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Dumbo
And that equates to the following features obtaining these numbers come nomination time:
10 Nominations
The Irishman, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
8 Nominations
1917
7 Nominations
Little Women, Marriage Story
5 Nominations
Joker, Parasite
4 Nominations
Ford v Ferrari, Jojo Rabbit, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, The Two Popes
3 Nominations
Bombshell, Rocketman
2 Nominations
Ad Astra, Avengers: Endgame, Dolemite Is My Name, Frozen II, Harriet, Judy, The Lighthouse, The Lion King, Pain and Glory
1 Nomination
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, The Aeronauts, American Factory, And Then We Danced, Apollo 11, Beanpole, Cats, The Cave, Downton Abbey, The Farewell, Honeyland, How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World, Hustlers, I Lost My Body, Les Miserables, One Child Nation, Toy Story 4, Weathering with You
One week ahead of its massive launch, the review embargo has lifted for Disney’s Frozen II, the sequel to the 2013 animated smash that grossed over a billion dollars worldwide. Financial expectations are understandably enormous and a big question was whether it matches the quality of the original.
Early critical reaction suggests… not quite. Frozen achieved a 90% Rotten Tomatoes rating while the follow-up is currently at 81%. Part 1 was nominated for two Oscars and won both – Animated Feature and Best Original Song for the omnipresent “Let It Go” as sung by Idina Menzel (or whatever John Travolta called her at the Academy ceremony).
Frozen II is very likely to be nominated in both races like its predecessor. The tune is likely to be the ballad “Into the Unknown”. However, unlike the original, it may not be the favorite to win in either category. The biggest competition in Animated Feature comes from another Mouse Factory sequel with this summer’s Toy Story 4 (which I still believe to be the frontrunner). Another non-Disney sequel, How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World, could also be a factor – albeit less so than Woody and Buzz. In Original Song, there’s serious competitors in the form of Elton John and Taylor Swift tracks from Rocketman and Cats, respectively.
Bottom line: Frozen II should nab the same nods that Frozen did. Victories are another story. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
Blogger’s Note (11/16): I’ve upgraded my estimate from $113.7M to $126.7M
Today, frozen is the word described by many as what they’re experiencing when they attempt to view Disney Plus on its first day of launch. Next weekend, Frozen II looks to heat up a sleepy box office and continue the Mouse Factory’s stellar year. This is the sequel to the 2013 smash hit that earned over a billion dollars worldwide. The computer animated musical fantasy has Idina Menzel, Kristen Bell, Jonathan Groff, and Josh Gad returning to voice their known characters along with newbies Sterling K. Brown, Evan Rachel Wood, Alfred Molina, Marsha Plimpton, and Jason Ritter. Chris Buck and Jennifer Lee make a return engagement behind the camera.
Six years ago in November, part 1 turned into a phenomenon. Over the long Thanksgiving weekend, the critically hailed Oscar winner took in $93 million and legged out impressively to a domestic haul of $400 million. This time around, expectations are understandably sky high. A gross north of $100 million out of the gate is anticipated.
With its rather short span between entries, Frozen II should achieve that status. I suspect earnings in the neighborhood of what Toy Story 4 ($120.9 million) took in this summer is the range. I’ll put it a few million over that mark.
Frozen II opening weekend prediction: $126.7 million
For my A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood prediction, click here:
3. Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)
4. Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story (PR: 5)
5. Sam Mendes, 1917 (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Greta Gerwig, Little Women (PR: 6)
7. Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit (PR: 7)
8. James Mangold, Ford v Ferrari (PR: 9)
9. Fernando Meirelles, The Two Popes (PR: 8)
10. Lulu Wang, The Farewell (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Todd Phillips, Joker
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Adam Driver, Marriage Story (PR: 1)
2. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker (PR: 2)
3. Robert De Niro, The Irishman (PR: 6)
4. Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 4)
5. Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory (PR: 8)
7. Eddie Murphy, Dolemite Is My Name (PR: 5)
8. Taron Egerton, Rocketman (PR: 7)
9. Christian Bale, Ford v Ferrari (PR: 9)
10. Adam Sandler, Uncut Gems (PR: 10)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Renee Zellweger, Judy (PR: 1)
2. Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story (PR: 3)
3. Charlize Theron, Bombshell (PR: 2)
4. Saoirse Ronan, Little Women (PR: 4)
5. Cynthia Erivo, Harriet (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Awkwafina, The Farewell (PR: 6)
7. Lupita Nyong’o, Us (PR: 8)
8. Alfre Woodard, Clemency (PR: 7)
9. Elisabeth Moss, Her Smell (PR: 9)
10. Felicity Jones, The Aeronauts (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Helen Mirren, The Good Liar
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Laura Dern, Marriage Story (PR: 1)
2. Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers (PR: 2)
3. Margot Robbie, Bombshell (PR: 3)
4. Florence Pugh, Little Women (PR: 4)
5. Annette Bening, The Report (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Shuzhen Zhou, The Farewell (PR: 6)
7. Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit (PR: 7)
8. Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey (PR: 9)
9. Margot Robbie, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 10)
10. Nicole Kidman, Bombshell (PR: 8)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)
2. Al Pacino, The Irishman (PR: 2)
3. Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 4)
4. Willem Dafoe, The Lighthouse (PR: 5)
5. Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Shia LaBeouf, Honey Boy (PR: 8)
7. Joe Pesci, The Irishman (PR: 6)
8. Song Kang-Ho, Parasite (PR: Not Rankled)
9. Jamie Foxx, Just Mercy (PR: 7)
10. Sterling K. Brown, Waves (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
John Lithgow, Bombshell
Wesley Snipes, Dolemite Is My Name
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Marriage Story (PR: 2)
2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)
3. Parasite (PR: 3)
4. The Farewell (PR: 4)
5. Pain and Glory (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Bombshell (PR: 5)
7. Booksmart (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Waves (PR: 8)
9. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 7)
10. Honey Boy (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
1917
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Irishman (PR: 1)
2. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 2)
3. Little Women (PR: 4)
4. The Two Popes (PR: 3)
5. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joker (PR: 5)
7. Just Mercy (PR: 7)
8. Richard Jewell (PR: 8)
9. Downton Abbey (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Hustlers (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Judy
Dark Waters
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Parasite (PR: 1)
2. Pain and Glory (PR: 2)
3. Les Miserables (PR: 3)
4. Atlantics (PR: 7)
5. Beanpole (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Monos (PR: 4)
7. And Then We Danced (PR: 6)
8. A White, White Day (PR: 9)
9. Those Who Remained (PR: 8)
10. Papicha (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Tel Aviv on Fire
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Toy Story 4 (PR: 1)
2. Frozen II (PR: 2)
3. How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World (PR: 3)
4. I Lost My Body (PR: 5)
5. Weathering with You (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Abominable (PR: 8)
7. Missing Link (PR: 7)
8. Bunuel in the Labyrinth of the Turtles (PR: 6)
9. Klaus (PR: 9)
10. Spies in Disguise (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Funan
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. American Factory (PR: 1)
2. One Child Nation (PR: 2)
3. The Cave (PR: 5)
4. Maiden (PR: 3)
5. Apollo 11 (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Biggest Little Farm (PR: 6)
7. Honeyland (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Knock Down the House (PR: 7)
9. The Edge of Democracy (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Sea of Shadows (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
For Sama
Diego Maradona
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. 1917 (PR: 1)
2. The Irishman (PR: 2)
3. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 3)
4. The Lighthouse (PR: 5)
5. Joker (PR: 10)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 6)
7. A Hidden Life (PR: 4)
8. Ad Astra (PR: 8)
9. Parasite (PR: 7)
10. Marriage Story (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Portrait of a Lady on Fire
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)
2. Downton Abbey (PR: 4)
3. Rocketman (PR: 5)
4. Dolemite Is My Name (PR: 2)
5. Little Women (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Irishman (PR: 7)
7. Judy (PR: 6)
8. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 9)
9. Joker (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Dumbo (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Cats
Aladdin
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Irishman (PR: 1)
2. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 2)
3. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 3)
4. Parasite (PR: 5)
5. Marriage Story (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. 1917 (PR: 4)
7. Bombshell (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 7)
9. Joker (PR: 9)
10. Avengers: Endgame (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Rocketman
Knives Out
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Bombshell (PR: 1)
2. The Irishman (PR: 2)
3. Judy (PR: 3)
4. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 5)
5. Dolemite Is My Name (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Rocketman (PR: 6)
7. Joker (PR: 10)
8. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 9)
9. The Two Popes (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Us (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Cats
The Aeronauts
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)
2. The Irishman (PR: 2)
3. Little Women (PR: 4)
4. 1917 (PR: 5)
5. Parasite (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 3)
7. Cats (PR: 7)
8. Downton Abbey (PR: 9)
9. Joker (PR: 10)
10. The Aeronauts (PR: 8)
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. 1917 (PR: 1)
2. Little Women (PR: 2)
3. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 3)
4. Marriage Story (PR: 4)
5. Joker (PR: 10)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 5)
7. A Hidden Life (PR: 6)
8. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 8)
9. The Aeronauts (PR: 7)
10. Ad Astra (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Waves
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Into the Unknown” from Frozen II (PR: 1)
2. “(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again” from Rocketman (PR: 2)
3. “Stand Up” from Harriet (PR: 4)
4. “Beautiful Ghosts” from Cats (PR: 3)
5. “Spirit” from The Lion King (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Speechless” from Aladdin (PR: 6)
7. “Daily Battles” from Motherless Brooklyn (PR: Not Ranked)
8. “I’m Standing With You” from Breakthrough (PR: 5)
9. “Together From Afar” from How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World (PR: Not Ranked)
10. “I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away” from Toy Story 4 (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
“The Ballad of the Lonesome Cowboy” from Toy Story 4
“One Little Soldier” from Bombshell
Best Sound Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. 1917 (PR: 2)
2. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 1)
3. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 3)
4. Avengers: Endgame (PR: 6)
5. Ad Astra (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Rocketman (PR: 5)
7. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 4)
8. The Irishman (PR: 7)
9. Cats (PR: 9)
10. Richard Jewell (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Aeronauts
Best Sound Mixing
Predicted Nominees:
1. 1917 (PR: 3)
2. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 1)
3. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 2)
4. Rocketman (PR: 4)
5. Avengers: Endgame (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ad Astra (PR: 9)
7. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 6)
8. Cats (PR: 10)
9. The Irishman (PR: 7)
10. Joker (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Judy
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Irishman (PR: 2)
2. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 1)
3. The Lion King (PR: 4)
4. Avengers: Endgame (PR: 3)
5. The Aeronauts (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ad Astra (PR: 8)
7. Gemini Man (PR: 7)
8. 1917 (PR: 9)
9. Alita: Battle Angel (PR: 6)
10. Dumbo (PR: 10)
And that all equates to these pictures getting the following number of nominations:
10 Nominations
The Irishman, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
8 Nominations
Marriage Story
7 Nominations
1917, Little Women
6 Nominations
Parasite
4 Nominations
Bombshell, Joker, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, The Two Popes
3 Nominations
Avengers: Endgame, Ford v Ferrari, Rocketman
2 Nominations
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, Dolemite Is My Name, Frozen II, Harriet, Jojo Rabbit, Judy, The Lighthouse, The Lion King, Pain and Glory
1 Nomination
Ad Astra, The Aeronauts, American Factory, Apollo 11, Atlantics, Beanpole, Cats, The Cave, Downton Abbey, The Farewell, How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World, Hustlers, I Lost My Body, Les Miserables, Maiden, One Child Nation, The Report, Toy Story 4, Weathering with You
This week’s gathering of my Oscar predictions brings changes in some big categories:
Joker has been at the bottom of my ten Best Picture nominees since its opening, but it drops to #11 in favor of Ford v Ferrari. On the positive side for the film, Joker is back in my Adapted Screenplay estimates over A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood.
Harriet is out this weekend and it’s coming in at the higher range of box office expectations. I’m putting Cynthia Erivo back in my top five and that leaves out Alfre Woodard’s work in Clemency.
Dolemite Is My Name premiered on Netflix a week ago and that’s opened up a floodgate of praise for Eddie Murphy. We shall see if the momentum continues, but I now have vaulted him into my Best Actor nominees. That drops out Robert De Niro in The Irishman. Truth be told, this particular race is absolutely packed and I believe only Adam Driver is safe right now.
Let’s get to it!
BEST PICTURE
Predicted Nominees:
1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. The Irishman (PR: 2)
3. Marriage Story (PR: 3)
4. Parasite (PR: 4)
5. 1917 (PR: 6)
6. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 5)
7. Little Women (PR: 9)
8. The Two Popes (PR: 8)
9. Bombshell (PR: 7)
10. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 11)
Other Possibilities:
11. Joker (PR: 10)
12. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 13)
13. The Farewell (PR: 12)
14. Rocketman (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Waves (PR: 14)
Dropped Out:
Richard Jewell
BEST DIRECTOR
Predicted Nominees:
1. Martin Scorsese, The Irishman (PR: 1)
2. Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)
3. Bong Joon-Ho, Parasite (PR: 3)
4. Sam Mendes, 1917 (PR: 4)
5. Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Greta Gerwig, Little Women (PR: 6)
7. Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit (PR: 7)
8. Fernando Meirelles, The Two Popes (PR: Not Ranked)
9. James Mangold, Ford v Ferrari (PR: 10)
10. Todd Phillips, Joker (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Jay Roach, Bombshell
BEST ACTRESS
Predicted Nominees:
1. Renee Zellweger, Judy (PR: 1)
2. Charlize Theron, Bombshell (PR: 2)
3. Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story (PR: 3)
4. Saoirse Ronan, Little Women (PR: 4)
5. Cynthia Erivo, Harriet (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Awkwafina, The Farewell (PR: 6)
7. Alfre Woodard, Clemency (PR: 5)
8. Lupita Nyong’o, Us (PR: 8)
9. Elisabeth Moss, Her Smell (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Helen Mirren, The Good Liar (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Isabelle Huppert, Frankie
BEST ACTOR
Predicted Nominees:
1. Adam Driver, Marriage Story (PR: 1)
2. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker (PR: 2)
3. Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes (PR: 3)
4. Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 4)
5. Eddie Murphy, Dolemite Is My Name (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
6. Robert De Niro, The Irishman (PR: 5)
7. Taron Egerton, Rocketman (PR: 7)
8. Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory (PR: 6)
9. Christian Bale, Ford v Ferrari (PR: 8)
10. Adam Sandler, Uncut Gems (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Paul Walter Hauser, Richard Jewell
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Predicted Nominees:
1. Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)
2. Al Pacino, The Irishman (PR: 2)
3. Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes (PR: 3)
4. Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 4)
5. Willem Dafoe, The Lighthouse (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joe Pesci, The Irishman (PR: 6)
7. Jamie Foxx, Just Mercy (PR: 7)
8. Shia LaBeouf, Honey Boy (PR: Not Ranked)
9. John Lithgow, Bombshell (PR: 8)
10. Wesley Snipes, Dolemite Is My Name (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit
Sterling K. Brown, Waves
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Predicted Nominees:
1. Laura Dern, Marriage Story (PR: 1)
2. Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers (PR: 4)
3. Margot Robbie, Bombshell (PR: 2)
4. Florence Pugh, Little Women (PR: 3)
5. Annette Bening, The Report (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Shuzhen Zhou, The Farewell (PR: 6)
7. Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit (PR: 7)
8. Nicole Kidman, Bombshell (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey (PR: 8)
10. Margot Robbie, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Thomasin McKenzie, Jojo Rabbit
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Predicted Nominees:
1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)
2. Marriage Story (PR: 2)
3. Parasite (PR: 3)
4. The Farewell (PR: 4)
5. Bombshell (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Pain and Glory (PR: 6)
7. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 9)
8. Waves (PR: 7)
9. 1917 (PR: 8)
10. Honey Boy (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Knives Out
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Irishman (PR: 1)
2. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 2)
3. The Two Popes (PR: 4)
4. Little Women (PR: 3)
5. Joker (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 5)
7. Just Mercy (PR: 7)
8. Richard Jewell (PR: 10)
9. Judy (PR: 8)
10. Dark Waters (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Downton Abbey
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM
Predicted Nominees:
1. Parasite (PR: 1)
2. Pain and Glory (PR: 2)
3. Les Miserables (PR: 3)
4. Monos (PR: 5)
5. Beanpole (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. And Then We Danced (PR: 8)
7. Atlantics (PR: 6)
8. Those Who Remained (PR: 4)
9. A White, White Day (PR: 9)
10. Tel Aviv on Fire (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Traitor
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Predicted Nominees:
1. Toy Story 4 (PR: 1)
2. Frozen II (PR: 2)
3. How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World (PR: 3)
4. Weathering with You (PR: 4)
5. I Lost My Body (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Bunuel in the Labyrinth of the Turtles (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Missing Link (PR: 6)
8. Abominable (PR: 7)
9. Klaus (PR: 10)
10. Funan (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Okko’s Inn
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Predicted Nominees:
1. American Factory (PR: 1)
2. One Child Nation (PR: 3)
3. Maiden (PR: 5)
4. Apollo 11 (PR: 2)
5. The Cave (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Biggest Little Farm (PR: 6)
7. Knock Down the House (PR: 8)
8. For Sama (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Sea of Shadows (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Diego Maradona (PR: 7)
Dropped Out:
The Edge of Democracy
Western Stars
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Predicted Nominees:
1. 1917 (PR: 2)
2. The Irishman (PR: 1)
3. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 3)
4. A Hidden Life (PR: 4)
5. The Lighthouse (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 9)
7. Parasite (PR: 8)
8. Ad Astra (PR: 6)
9. Joker (PR: 7)
10. Portrait of a Lady on Fire (PR: 10)
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Predicted Nominees:
1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)
2. Dolemite Is My Name (PR: 3)
3. Little Women (PR: 2)
4. Downton Abbey (PR: 4)
5. Rocketman (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Judy (PR: 7)
7. The Irishman (PR: 6)
8. Cats (Not Ranked)
9. Jojo Rabbit (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Aladdin (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
1917
Joker
Maleficent: Mistress of Evil
BEST FILM EDITING
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Irishman (PR: 1)
2. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 3)
3. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)
4. 1917 (PR: 5)
5. Parasite (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Marriage Story (PR: 4)
7. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 7)
8. Rocketman (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Joker (PR: 10)
10. Knives Out (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Avengers: Endgame
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Predicted Nominees:
1. Bombshell (PR: 1)
2. The Irishman (PR: 2)
3. Judy (PR: 4)
4. Dolemite Is My Name (PR: 3)
5. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Rocketman (PR: 6)
7. Cats (PR: 10)
8. The Aeronauts (PR: 8)
9. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Joker (PR: 5)
Dropped Out:
Little Women
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Predicted Nominees:
1. 1917 (PR: 1)
2. Little Women (PR: 3)
3. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 2)
4. Marriage Story (PR: 4)
5. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. A Hidden Life (PR: 5)
7. The Aeronauts (PR: 6)
8. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 7)
9. Waves (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Joker (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Ad Astra
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Into the Unknown” from Frozen II (PR: 1)
2. “(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again” from Rocketman (PR: 2)
3. “Beautiful Ghosts” from Cats (PR: 3)
4. “Stand Up” from Harriet (PR: 4)
5. “I’m Standing With You” from Breakthrough (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Speechless” from Aladdin (PR: 7)
7. “Spirit” from The Lion King (PR: 5)
8. “I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away” from Toy Story 4 (PR: 6)
9. “The Ballad of the Lonesome Cowboy” from Toy Story 4 (PR: 8)
10. “One Little Soldier” from Bombshell (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
”Daily Battles” from Motherless Brooklyn
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Predicted Nominees:
1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)
2. The Irishman (PR: 2)
3. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 5)
4. Little Women (PR: 3)
5. 1917 (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Parasite (PR: 6)
7. Cats (PR: 7)
8. The Aeronauts (PR: 9)
9. Downton Abbey (PR: 8)
10. Joker (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
BEST SOUND EDITING
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 1)
2. 1917 (PR: 3)
3. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 2)
4. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 4)
5. Rocketman (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Avengers: Endgame (PR: 7)
7. The Irishman (PR: 6)
8. Ad Astra (PR: 5)
9. Cats (PR: 9)
10. The Aeronauts (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Us
BEST SOUND MIXING
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 1)
2. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 2)
3. 1917 (PR: 3)
4. Rocketman (PR: 6)
5. Avengers: Endgame (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 7)
7. The Irishman (PR: 8)
8. Judy (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Ad Astra (PR: 5)
10. Cats (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Joker
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Predicted Nominees:
1. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 1)
2. The Irishman (PR: 3)
3. Avengers: Endgame (PR: 2)
4. The Lion King (PR: 4)
5. The Aeronauts (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Alita: Battle Angel (PR: 5)
7. Gemini Man (PR: 8)
8. Ad Astra (PR: 7)
9. 1917 (PR: 9)
10. Dumbo (PR: 10)
And that equates to the following number of nominations going to these pictures:
11 Nominations
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
9 Nominations
The Irishman
8 Nominations
1917
7 Nominations
Little Women, Marriage Story
5 Nominations
Bombshell, Ford v Ferrari, Parasite
4 Nominations
Rocketman, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, The Two Popes
3 Nominations
Dolemite Is My Name, Jojo Rabbit
2 Nominations
Avengers: Endgame, Frozen II, Harriet, Joker, Judy, The Lighthouse
1 Nomination
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, The Aeronauts, A Hidden Life, American Factory, Apollo 11, Beanpole, Breakthrough, Cats, The Cave, Downton Abbey, The Farewell, How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World, Hustlers, I Lost My Body, Les Miserables, The Lion King, Maiden, Monos, One Child Nation, Pain and Glory, The Report, Toy Story 4, Weathering with You
Since 2016, the NBC drama This Is Us has kept viewers in a perpetual state of tears and it’s been a massive hit for the network. As the show’s popularity has continued, the various leads on the family affair have seen their movie offers increase.
When looking at how Oscar voters could reward the work of these actors that have garnered plenty of Emmy nods, there’s some we can quickly discount. Don’t look for Milo Ventimiglia to contend for The Art of Racing in the Rain. His onscreen wife Mandy Moore won’t get supporting actress attention for next weekend’s Midway. Justin Hartley will not be feted for Little or Jexi. And while A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood could see Tom Hanks receive another nomination, the same won’t hold true for Susan Kelechi Watson.
That brings us to Watson’s TV hubby Sterling K. Brown. His big screen family drama Waves has gotten raves on the film festival circuit. It would appear his performance is most likely to appear on the radar of the awards crowd. Yet there’s a problem. 2019’s crop of supporting actor possibilities is packed. The list includes the aforementioned Hanks in Neighborhood, Brad Pitt in Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, both Al Pacino and Joe Pesci for The Irishman, Anthony Hopkins in The Two Popes, Willem Dafoe in The Lighthouse, and Jamie Foxx for Just Mercy. The race simply might be too crowded for Brown.
Surprisingly, the best chance for an Us thespian to get into the Academy derby might come in an unexpected category. This spring’s faith based release Breakthrough featured Chrissy Metz in the cast. Her acting will not be honored. However, Metz did cut an original song for the soundtrack titled “I’m Standing With You”. The songwriter is Diane Warren and she’s no stranger to Oscar. Warren has landed ten nods for her work, including songs from the last two years – “Stand Up for Something” from Marshall and “I’ll Fight” from RBG. The Best Original Song race is still uncertain, but Disney appears bound to get in with expected selections from Toy Story 4, Frozen II, Aladdin, and The Lion King. There’s also tracks from Rocketman and Cats that could factor in. Still, Metz’s pipes probably have the highest chance for recognition over the acting skills of her fellow cast members.
My latest round of Oscar predictions brings the following developments:
Little Women has held industry screenings and greatly improved its chances at multiple nominations. It’s back in my predicted ten Best Picture contenders and that’s bad news for Ford v Ferrari.
Speaking of Ferrari, it was announced that Christian Bale will contend for Best Actor and not supporting, which is where I’ve had him predicted for weeks. This designation significantly decreases his shot and I have him ranked in 8th. The benefactor in Supporting Actor: Willem Dafoe for The Lighthouse.
Back to Little Women. The standout is said to be Florence Pugh, so I now have her down for Supporting Actress, knocking out Shuzhen Zhou in The Farewell.
Speaking of The Farewell, my fifth spot in Actress continues to change as that picture’s Awkwafina slides to sixth with Alfre Woodard (Clemency) in.
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood nabs the #1 slot in Picture over The Irishman. It’s a razor thin margin.
Let’s get to it!
BEST PICTURE
Predicted Nominees:
1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Previous Ranking: 2)
2. The Irishman (PR: 1)
3. Marriage Story (PR: 4)
4. Parasite (PR: 3)
5. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 6)
6. 1917 (PR: 5)
7. Bombshell (PR: 9)
8. The Two Popes (PR: 8)
9. Little Women (PR: 12)
10. Joker (PR: 10)
Other Possibilities:
11. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 7)
12. The Farewell (PR: 11)
13. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 13)
14. Waves (PR: 14)
15. Richard Jewell (PR: 15)
BEST DIRECTOR
Predicted Nominees:
1. Martin Scorsese, The Irishman (PR: 1)
2. Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 3)
3. Bong Joon-Ho, Parasite (PR: 2)
4. Sam Mendes, 1917 (PR: 4)
5. Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Greta Gerwig, Little Women (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit (PR: 6)
8. Jay Roach, Bombshell (PR: 10)
9. Todd Phillips, Joker (PR: Not Ranked)
10. James Mangold, Ford v Ferrari (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Lulu Wang, The Farewell
Pedro Almodovar, Pain and Glory
BEST ACTOR
Predicted Nominees:
1. Adam Driver, Marriage Story (PR: 1)
2. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker (PR: 2)
3. Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes (PR: 3)
4. Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 5)
5. Robert De Niro, The Irishman (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory (PR: 6)
7. Taron Egerton, Rocketman (PR: 7)
8. Christian Bale, Ford v Ferrari (PR: Not Ranked – moved from Supporting)
9. Eddie Murphy, Dolemite Is My Name (PR: 8)
10. Paul Walter Hauser, Richard Jewell (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Adam Sandler, Uncut Gems
BEST ACTRESS
Predicted Nominees:
1. Renee Zellweger, Judy (PR: 1)
2. Charlize Theron, Bombshell (PR: 2)
3. Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story (PR: 3)
4. Saoirse Ronan, Little Women (PR: 4)
5. Alfre Woodard, Clemency (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Awkwafina, The Farewell (PR: 5)
7. Cynthia Erivo, Harriet (PR: 7)
8. Lupita Nyong’o, Us (PR: 8)
9. Helen Mirren, The Good Liar (PR: 9)
10. Isabelle Huppert, Frankie (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jodie Turner-Smith, Queen and Slim
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Predicted Nominees:
1. Laura Dern, Marriage Story (PR: 1)
2. Margot Robbie, Bombshell (PR: 3)
3. Florence Pugh, Little Women (PR: 8)
4. Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers (PR: 2)
5. Annette Bening, The Report (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Shuzhen Zhou, The Farewell (PR: 5)
7. Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey (PR: 6)
9. Margot Robbie, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 7)
10. Thomasin McKenzie, Jojo Rabbit (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Meryl Streep, Little Women
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Predicted Nominees:
1. Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)
2. Al Pacino, The Irishman (PR: 2)
3. Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes (PR: 4)
4. Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 3)
5. Willem Dafoe, The Lighthouse (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joe Pesci, The Irishman (PR: 7)
7. Jamie Foxx, Just Mercy (PR: 8)
8. John Lithgow, Bombshell (PR: 9)
9. Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit (PR: 10)
10. Sterling K. Brown, Waves (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Christian Bale, Ford v Ferrari (moved to lead)
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Irishman (PR: 1)
2. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 2)
3. Little Women (PR: 6)
4. The Two Popes (PR: 3)
5. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joker (PR: 5)
7. Just Mercy (PR: 7)
8. Judy (PR: 8)
9. Downton Abbey (PR: 9)
10. Richard Jewell (PR: 10)
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Predicted Nominees:
1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)
2. Marriage Story (PR: 1)
3. Parasite (PR: 3)
4. The Farewell (PR: 4)
5. Bombshell (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Pain and Glory (PR: 8)
7. Waves (PR: 6)
8. 1917 (PR: 7)
9. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 10)
10. Knives Out (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Booksmart
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM
Predicted Nominees:
1. Parasite (PR: 1)
2. Pain and Glory (PR: 2)
3. Les Miserables (PR: 4)
4. Those Who Remained (PR: 6)
5. Monos (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Atlantics (PR: 3)
7. Beanpole (PR: 7)
8. And Then We Danced (PR: 8)
9. A White, White Day (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Traitor (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Papicha
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Predicted Nominees:
1. Toy Story 4 (PR: 1)
2. Frozen II (PR: 2)
3. How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World (PR: 3)
4. Weathering with You (PR: 5)
5. I Lost My Body (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Missing Link (PR: 4)
7. Abominable (PR: 7)
8. Funan (PR: 9)
9. Okko’s Inn (PR: 10)
10. Klaus (PR: 8)
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Predicted Nominees:
1. American Factory (PR: 2)
2. Apollo 11 (PR: 1)
3. One Child Nation (PR: 4)
4. The Cave (PR: 5)
5. Maiden (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Biggest Little Farm (PR: 6)
7. Diego Maradona (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Knock Down the House (PR: 10)
9. The Edge of Democracy (PR: 7)
10. Western Stars (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Aquarela
Rolling Thunder Revue: A Bob Dylan Story By Martin Scorsese
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Irishman (PR: 2)
2. 1917 (PR: 1)
3. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 3)
4. A Hidden Life (PR: Not Ranked)
5. The Lighthouse (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ad Astra (PR: 6)
7. Joker (PR: 9)
8. Parasite (PR: 4)
9. Portrait of a Lady on Fire (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 7)
Dropped Out:
Marriage Story
Jojo Rabbit
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Predicted Nominees:
1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)
2. Little Women (PR: 3)
3. Dolemite Is My Name (PR: 4)
4. Downton Abbey (PR: 1)
5. Rocketman (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Irishman (PR: 7)
7. Judy (PR: 6)
8. 1917 (PR: 9)
9. Joker (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Maleficent: Mistress of Evil (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Aladdin
Jojo Rabbit
BEST FILM EDITING
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Irishman (PR: 1)
2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)
3. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 4)
4. Marriage Story (PR: 5)
5. 1917 (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Parasite (PR: 6)
7. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 7)
8. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 9)
9. Avengers: Endgame (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Joker (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Ad Astra
BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
Predicted Nominees:
1. Bombshell (PR: 2)
2. The Irishman (PR: 1)
3. Dolemite Is My Name (PR: 4)
4. Judy (PR: 3)
5. Joker (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Rocketman (PR: 9)
7. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 7)
8. The Aeronauts (PR: 8)
9. Little Women (PR: 5)
10. Cats (PR: 10)
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Predicted Nominees:
1. 1917 (PR: 1
2. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 2)
3. Little Women (PR: 3)
4. Marriage Story (PR: 4)
5. A Hidden Life (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Aeronauts (PR: 6)
7. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 5)
8. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 7)
9. Joker (PR: 9)
10. Ad Astra
Dropped Out:
Waves
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Into the Unknown” from Frozen II (PR: 1)
2. “(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again” from Rocketman (PR: 2)
3. “Beautiful Ghosts” from Cats (PR: Not Ranked)
4. “Stand Up” from Harriet (PR: 3)
5. “Spirit” from The Lion King (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. “I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away” from Toy Story 4 (PR: 6)
7. “Speechless” from Aladdin (PR: 5)
8. “The Ballad of the Lonesome Cowboy” from Toy Story 4 (PR: 4)
9. “One Little Soldier” from Bombshell (PR: 8)
10. “Daily Battles” from Motherless Brooklyn (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
”Together From Afar” from How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Predicted Nominees:
1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)
2. The Irishman (PR: 4)
3. Little Women (PR: 5)
4. 1917 (PR: 2)
5. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Parasite (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Cats (PR: 6)
8. Downton Abbey (PR: 10)
9. The Aeronauts (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 7)
Dropped Out:
Ford v Ferrari
Aladdin
BEST SOUND EDITING
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 2)
2. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 3)
3. 1917 (PR: 1)
4. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 8)
5. Ad Astra (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Irishman (PR: 7)
7. Avengers: Endgame (PR: 5)
8. Rocketman (PR: 4)
9. Cats (PR: 9)
10. Us (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Lion King
BEST SOUND MIXING
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 1)
2. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 3)
3. 1917 (PR: 2)
4. Avengers: Endgame (PR: 6)
5. Ad Astra (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Rocketman (PR: 4)
7. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 9)
8. The Irishman (PR: 8)
9. Cats (PR: 7)
10. Joker (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Lion King
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Predicted Nominees:
1. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 2)
2. Avengers: Endgame (PR: 3)
3. The Irishman (PR: 1)
4. The Lion King (PR: 4)
5. Alita: Battle Angel (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Aeronauts (PR: 6)
7. Ad Astra (PR: 8)
8. Gemini Man (PR: 7)
9. 1917 (PR: 9)
10. Dumbo (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Godzilla: King of the Monsters
And that equates to the following films getting the following number of nominations:
10 Nominations
The Irishman, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
8 Nominations
1917, Marriage Story
7 Nominations
Little Women
5 Nominations
Bombshell
4 Nominations
Parasite, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, The Two Popes
3 Nominations
Ford v Ferrari, Jojo Rabbit, Joker
2 Nominations
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, Ad Astra, Avengers: Endgame, Dolemite Is My Name, Frozen II, A Hidden Life, Judy, The Lighthouse, The Lion King, Rocketman
1 Nomination
Alita: Battle Angel, American Factory, Apollo 11, Cats, The Cave, Clemency, Downton Abbey, The Farewell, Harriet, How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World, Hustlers, I Lost My Body, Les Miserables, Maiden, Monos, One Child Nation, Pain and Glory, The Report, Those Who Remained, Toy Story 4, Weathering with You
