Sr. refers to Robert Downey Sr. and it recounts his directing and acting career in addition to his final years (he passed last summer). Best known for the underground 1969 satire Putney Swope, the film streams on Netflix December 2nd. His very famous son also appears in the documentary from Chris Smith, maker of 2019’s buzzy Fyre.
After a premiere at Telluride in September, Sr. also played the New York Film Festival. Early reviews are solid across the board with 100% on Rotten Tomatoes. Netflix always has docs to campaign for at Oscar time. Their biggest hopeful might be Descendant, but they’ll likely promote this one too (especially with the high profile Hollywood connection and Downey Jr. making the rounds).
I’ve had Sr. in and out of my top ten of possibilities in Doc Feature, but not yet in the high five. We’ll see if it manages to rise in the coming weeks. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
The true life tale of the New York Times journalists who exposed the crimes of Harvey Weinstein, Maria Schrader’s She Said debuts November 18th. Zoe Kazan and Carey Mulligan play the investigative reporters with a supporting cast including Patricia Clarkson, Andre Braugher, Jennifer Ehle, Tom Pelphrey, and Samantha Morton.
Critical reaction skewed positive after its premiere at the New York Film Festival. With an 82% Rotten Tomatoes score, She could contend for nods in some Oscar races including Picture. The best reviews have compared it to 2015’s BP winner Spotlight.
The ripped from the fairly recent headlines story could assist in bringing in filmgoers. Universal is certainly banking on a female turnout. My hunch is that this struggles in its opening and hopes for sturdy legs in subsequent frames. Low to mid single digits might be the start.
Danielle Deadwyler is likely headed for a Best Actress nomination in Chinonye Chukwu’s Till, which opens wide in approximately 2000 theaters on October 28th. She plays Mamie Till, mother of Emmett who was brutally murdered in 1955. The biographical drama features Jalyn Hall as her son as well as Frankie Faison, Haley Bennett, and Whoopi Goldberg.
After its premiere at the New York Film Festival, Till received critical acclaim and it sports a 99% Rotten Tomatoes rating. Yet since its October 14th limited release, returns have been underwhelming. This past weekend, it earned approximately $600,000 on 104 screens. That’s a per screen average of just over $3600 and it doesn’t bode well for the expansion.
Three years ago, Harriet surpassed forecasts with its debut at the same time of year. With nearly $12 million for its start, that kind of number would be amazing for Till. Given the early evidence, it may only make a third of that.
On the bright side for Netflix, I have Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio at #1 in Animated Feature where it’s been perched all along. That would mean the streamer could nab its first victory ever in that race.
Now the bad news as my current Best Picture nominees leaves Netflix on the cutting room floor. In 2018, Roma was the first hopeful in the big dance. It was expected to win, but lost to Green Book. 2019 brought double nominees with The Irishman and Marriage Story. Same in 2020 with Mank and The Trial of the Chicago 7. And there were two contenders again last year in Don’t Look Up and The Power of the Dog (a frontrunner until CODA fever emerged).
I had All Quiet on the Western Front in the mix 11 days ago. Yet I’ve had a nagging feeling that another blockbuster not named Top Gun: Maverick will get in. So for the first time, Elvis is in the top ten. That moneymaker spot could also be filled with Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (from Netflix), Avatar: The Way of Water, or Black Panther: Wakanda Forever. Think could also be called the “Second Sequel” slot, I suppose.
Don’t be surprised if Netflix eventually gets back in. Quiet, the aforementioned Onion, Bardo, and Pinocchio are all viable (maybe even White Noise). For now, my BP hopefuls would mean a disappointing nomination morning for the streamer.
She Said received mostly positive notices when it was unveiled Thursday at the New York Film Festival. It could absolutely be a BP contender, but I’m got it just on the outside and feel more comfortable forecasting it as a lone screenplay nominee (I don’t love the current 76% RT meter for it). You’ll note I don’t have any of the cast in my top tens. Perhaps the eventual announcement of category placements could change that.
In other developments:
I’ve decided to move Babylon‘s Margot Robbie back in Best Actress instead of supporting (can we please get that placement announcement??). It means she’s back in and Olivia Colman (Empire of Light) is out.
Bill Nighy’s work in Living returns to Actor five with Diego Calva (Babylon) sliding into sixth position.
With Robbie returning to lead, Dolly De Leon (Triangle of Sadness) is elevated to fifth in Supporting Actress.
My Supporting Actor dual nominee projections of Brendan Gleeson and Barry Keoghan for The Banshees of Inisherin shifts to Paul Dano and Judd Hirsch for The Fabelmans. That means Hirsch rises while Keoghan falls.
You can read all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Fabelmans (Previous Rank: 1) (E)
2. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)
3. Babylon (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Women Talking (PR: 3) (-1)
5. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 5) (E)
6. Tar (PR: 6) (E)
7. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Whale (PR: 8) (E)
9. Elvis (PR: 13) (+4)
10. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 9) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
11. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 10) (-1)
12. She Said (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Decision to Leave (PR: 11) (-3)
15. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Till
The Woman King
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (E)
2. Damien Chazelle, Babylon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sarah Polley, Women Talking (PR: 3) (E)
4. Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 4) (E)
5. Todd Field, Tar (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Edward Berger, All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave (PR: 7) (-1)
9. James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 9) (E)
10. Ruben Ostlund, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 10) (E)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Cate Blanchett, Tar (PR: 1) (E)
2. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Danielle Deadwyler, Till (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans (PR: 4) (E)
5. Margot Robbie, Babylon (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from Supporting
Other Possibilities:
6. Olivia Colman, Empire of Light (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Viola Davis, The Woman King (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Ana de Armas, Blonde (PR: 8) (E)
9. Naomi Ackie, I Wanna Dance with Somebody (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Jennifer Lawrence, Causeway (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Carey Mulligan, She Said
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Brendan Fraser, The Whale (PR: 1) (E)
2. Austin Butler, Elvis (PR: 2) (E)
3. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 3) (E)
4. Hugh Jackman, The Son (PR: 4) (E)
5. Bill Nighy, Living (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Diego Calva, Babylon (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 7) (E)
8. Song Kang-ho, Broker (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Adam Driver, White Noise (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Jeremy Pope, The Inspection (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Will Smith, Emancipation
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Claire Foy, Women Talking (PR: 1) (E)
2. Jessie Buckley, Women Talking (PR: 2) (E)
3. Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Hong Chau, The Whale (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Dolly De Leon, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 6) (E)
7. Nina Hoss, Tar (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Janelle Monae, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Thuso Mbedu, The Woman King (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Margot Robbie, Babylon (moved to Best Actress)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)
2. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (E)
3. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (E)
4. Ben Whishaw, Women Talking (PR: 4) (E)
5. Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Brad Pitt, Babylon (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Woody Harrelson, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Tom Hanks, Elvis (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Brian Tyree Henry, Causeway (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jeremy Strong, Armageddon Time
Micheal Ward, Empire of Light
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (-1)
3. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 3) (E)
4. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 4) (E)
5. Tar (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Babylon (PR: 6) (E)
7. Decision to Leave (PR: 7) (E)
8. Armageddon Time (PR: 8) (E)
9. Empire of Light (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Menu (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Broker
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Women Talking (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Whale (PR: 2) (E)
3. She Said (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 3) (-1)
5. White Noise (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Living (PR: 6) (E)
7. Till (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Bones and All (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Son (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
All Quiet on the Western Front
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 1) (E)
2. Turning Red (PR: 2) (E)
3. Strange World (PR: 3) (E)
4. Wendell and Wild (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Marcel the Shell with Shoes On (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Bad Guys (PR: 8) (+2)
7. The Sea Beast (PR: 6) (-1)
8. My Father’s Dragon (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Minions: The Rise of Gru (PR: 9) (E)
10. Lightyear (PR: 10) (E)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 1) (E)
2. Decision to Leave (PR: 2) (E)
3. Close (PR: 3) (E)
4. Bardo (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Saint Omer (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Klondike (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Holy Spider (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Alcarras (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Argentina, 1985 (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Corsage (PR: 10) (E)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Descendant (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Navalny (PR: 3) (E)
4. All That Breathes (PR: 4) (E)
5. Fire of Love (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Territory (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Good Night Oppy (PR: 7) (E)
8. Moonage Daydream (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Last Flight Home (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Aftershock (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Sr.
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Empire of Light (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (E)
4. Bardo (PR: 5) (+1)
5. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 6) (E)
7. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 8) (E)
9. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 9) (E)
10. Emancipation (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Batman
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Elvis (PR: 2) (E)
3. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 3) (E)
4. Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Corsage (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Woman King (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Fabelmans (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Living (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Blonde (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Amsterdam
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)
2. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Fabelmans (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Babylon (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Women Talking (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Elvis (PR: 6) (E)
7. Tar (PR: 9) (+2)
8. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Bardo (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Decision to Leave
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Whale (PR: 1) (E)
2. Elvis (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Babylon (PR: 2) (-1)
4. The Batman (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Woman King (PR: 10) (+3)
8. X (PR: 8) (E)
9. Blonde (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Three Thousand Years of Longing (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Amsterdam
Corsage
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (E)
2. Babylon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Empire of Light (PR: 3) (E)
4. Tar (PR: 6) (+2)
5. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Women Talking (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Bardo (PR: 10) (+2)
9. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Top Gun: Maverick
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)
2. “Nobody Like U” from Turning Red (PR: 2) (E)
3. “Naatu Naatu” from RRR (PR: 4) (+1)
4. “Applause” from Tell It Like a Woman (PR: 3) (-1)
5. “Stand Up” from Till (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Carolina” from Where the Crawdads Sing (PR: 5) (-1)
7. “This is a Life” from Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 8) (+1)
8. “New Body Rhumba” from White Noise (PR: 7) (-1)
9. “On My Way” from Marry Me (PR: 6) (-3)
10. “Love Is Not Love” from Bros (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
“I Ain’t Worried” from Top Gun: Maverick
“Heartbeat” from Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Elvis (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Bardo (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Fabelmans (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Everything Everything All at Once (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Empire of Light (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Batman (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
All Quiet on the Western Front
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)
2. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 2) (E)
3. Elvis (PR: 3) (E)
4. Babylon (PR: 4) (E)
5. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Batman (PR: 6) (E)
7. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 7) (E)
8. Nope (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Fabelmans (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Bardo (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Thirteen Lives
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 1) (E)
2. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 2) (E)
3. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 3) (E)
4. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness (PR: 5) (+1)
5. The Batman (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 8) (+1)
8. RRR (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Good Night Oppy (PR: 9) (E)
10. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Nope
That equates to these movies getting these numbers of nominations:
10 Nominations
Babylon
9 Nominations
The Fabelmans
8 Nominations
Everything Everywhere All at Once
7 Nominations
Women Talking
6 Nominations
The Banshees of Inisherin, Elvis
5 Nominations
Tar, Top Gun: Maverick, The Whale
3 Nominations
All Quiet on the Western Front, Avatar: The Way of Water, Bardo, Triangle of Sadness
2 Nominations
The Batman, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Empire of Light, Till, Turning Red
1 Nomination
All That Breathes, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, Close, Corsage, Decision to Leave, Descendant, Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, Fire of Love, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Living, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris, Navalny, RRR, Saint Omer, She Said, The Son, Strange World, Tell It Like a Woman, Wendell and Wild, White Noise
At the New York Film Festival this evening, the curtain went up on She Said. From director Maria Schrader, the film recounts The New York Times investigation in movie mogul Harvey Weinstein. Carey Mulligan and Zoe Kazan portray the two lead reporters with a supporting cast including Patricia Clarkson, Andre Braugher, Samantha Morton, Tom Pelphrey, and Jennifer Ehle.
Recent journalistic exposes such as 2015’s Spotlight went all the way to a Best Picture victory. On the other hand, 2019’s Bombshell managed acting nods but missed BP and screenplay. Based on the early reviews coming out of the Big Apple, She Said may land somewhere in the middle. The initial reactions indicate this could absolutely make the ten contenders in Picture. Winning appears highly unlikely (several write-ups are in the solid but not great realm). As for its script, Adapted Screenplay is pretty weak in 2022. There’s no reason to think this won’t get in. I’d continue to put it behind Women Talking and The Whale.
One of this season’s mysteries has been speculating on which performers here might rise to contention. Much of this could come down to Universal’s category placement decisions. It would seem that Mulligan and Kazan are both leads and that should mean Best Actress campaigns for both. Yet that lead derby (as has been discussed many times on this blog) is packed. That doesn’t hold true for Supporting Actress which appears far more open to possibilities. Both are generating good ink with Mulligan said to perhaps have a more clip friendly role. If the call is made for both to go supporting, one or either could get in. I wouldn’t say the same in Actress. Both Morton and Ehle are scoring kudos for their brief roles, but they could be too brief for consideration.
Bottom line: Picture and Adapted Screenplay are in the mix for She Said. We have to hear the studio’s plans for the cast before that becomes clearer. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
In the past week, the biggest Oscar news was the announcement that Emancipation with Will Smith will debut in December and therefore be eligible for consideration. You can read my thoughts on that here:
As you’ll see below, Emancipation doesn’t make much of an impact anywhere in my estimates. However, I am putting Will Smith in at 10th for Best Actor. Part of that is the fairly weak field for lead actor (especially compared to Actress). Do I think Smith will get a nod? No, but it’s not entirely out of the question if his performance is critically hailed.
My BP lineup has one change with Triangle of Sadness back in the top ten over Decision to Leave.
In other developments:
Todd Field (Tar) returns to the directorial quintet and that removes Edward Berger for All Quiet on the Western Front.
While the Best Actress field remains the same, Danielle Deadwyler’s work in Till rises to 2nd place after rave notices at the New York Film Festival.
Brad Pitt (Babylon), who’s been subject to some bad press this week, falls out of my Supporting Actor five in favor of Ben Whishaw for Women Talking.
Babylon has also been taken out of my Original Screenplay selections with Tar being elevated.
There’s a new #1 in Documentary Feature with Descendant nabbing the slot over All the Beauty and the Bloodshed.
You can peruse all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Fabelmans (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)
2. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)
3. Women Talking (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Babylon (PR: 3) (-1)
5. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 5) (E)
6. Tar (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The Whale (PR: 8) (E)
9. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 11) (+2)
10. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 9) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
11. Decision to Leave (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 14) (+2)
13. Elvis (PR: 13) (E)
14. Till (PR: Not Ranked)
15. The Woman King (PR: 12) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Empire of Light
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (E)
2. Damien Chazelle, Babylon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sarah Polley, Women Talking (PR: 3) (E)
4. Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 4) (E)
5. Todd Field, Tar (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Edward Berger, All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave (PR: 7) (E)
8. Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 8) (E)
9. James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Ruben Ostlund, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Cate Blanchett, Tar (PR: 1) (E)
2. Danielle Deadwyler, Till (PR: 5) (+3)
3. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Olivia Colman, Empire of Light (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Viola Davis, The Woman King (PR: 6) (E)
7. Naomi Ackie, I Wanna Dance with Somebody (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Ana de Armas, Blonde (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Jennifer Lawrence, Causeway (PR: 9) (E)
10. Carey Mulligan, She Said (PR: 10) (E)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Brendan Fraser, The Whale (PR: 1) (E)
2. Austin Butler, Elvis (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Hugh Jackman, The Son (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Diego Calva, Babylon (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Bill Nighy, Living (PR: 6) (E)
7. Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 7) (E)
8. Adam Driver, White Noise (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Song Kang-ho, Broker (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Will Smith, Emancipation (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Paul Mescal, Aftersun
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Claire Foy, Women Talking (PR: 1) (E)
2. Jessie Buckley, Women Talking (PR: 2) (E)
3. Margot Robbie, Babylon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 4) (E)
5. Hong Chau, The Whale (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everything All at Once (PR: 6) (E)
7. Dolly De Leon, Triangle of Sadness (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Nina Hoss, Tar (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Janelle Monae, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Thuso Mbedu, The Woman King (PR: 7) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Zoe Kazan, She Said
Sadie Sink, The Whale
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)
2. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (E)
3. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Ben Whishaw, Women Talking (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Brad Pitt, Babylon (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans (PR: 7) (E)
8. Jeremy Strong, Armageddon Time (PR: 8) (E)
9. Woody Harrelson, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Micheal Ward, Empire of Light (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (+1)
2. The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (-1)
3. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 3) (E)
4. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 4) (E)
5. Tar (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Babylon (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Decision to Leave (PR: 7) (E)
8. Armageddon Time (PR: 8) (E)
9. Empire of Light (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Broker (PR: 10 (E)
Dropped Out:
Bros
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Women Talking (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Whale (PR: 2) (E)
3. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 4) (+1)
4. White Noise (PR: 5) (+1)
5. She Said (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Living (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Bones and All (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 7) (-1)
9. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Till (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
The Son
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 1) (E)
2. Turning Red (PR: 2) (E)
3. Strange World (PR: 3) (E)
4. Marcel the Shell with Shoes on (PR: 4) (E)
5. Wendell and Wild (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Sea Beast (PR: 7) (+1)
7. My Father’s Dragon (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The Bad Guys (PR: 8) (E)
9. Minions: The Rise of Gru (PR: 9) (E)
10. Lightyear (PR: 10) (E)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 1) (E)
2. Decision to Leave (PR: 2) (E)
3. Close (PR: 3) (E)
4. Saint Omer (PR: 4) (E)
5. Bardo (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Holy Spider (PR: 6) (E)
7. Argetina, 1985 (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Klondike (PR: 8) (E)
9. Alcarras (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Corsage (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
EO
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Descendant (PR: 3) (+2)
2. All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Navalny (PR: 2) (-1)
4. All That Breathes (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Territory (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Fire of Love (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Good Night Oppy (PR: 7) (E)
8. Last Flight Home (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Moonage Daydream (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Sr. (PR: 10) (E)
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Empire of Light (PR: 3) (+1)
3. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (-1)
4. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 4) (E)
5. Bardo (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 8) (E)
9. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Batman (PR: 10) (E)
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Elvis (PR: 2) (E)
3. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Woman King (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Fabelmans (PR: 6) (E)
7. Corsage (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Living (PR: 9) (E)
10. Amsterdam (PR: 10) (E)
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)
2. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 2) (E)
3. Babylon (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Fabelmans (PR: 4) (E)
5. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Elvis (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Women Talking (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Tar (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Decision to Leave (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Banshees of Inisherin
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Whale (PR: 1) (E)
2. Babylon (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Elvis (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Batman (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Amsterdam (PR: Not Ranked)
8. X (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Corsage (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Woman King (PR: 7) (-3)
Dropped Out:
All Quiet on the Western Front
Three Thousand Years of Longing
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Babylon (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Empire of Light (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Women Talking (PR: 3) (-1)
5. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tar (PR: 5) (-1)
7. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Bardo (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Batman
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)
2. “Nobody Like U” from Turning Red (PR: 2) (E)
3. “Applause” from Tell It Like a Woman (PR: 3) (E)
4. “Naatu Naatu” from RRR (PR: 9) (+5)
5. “Carolina” from Where the Crawdads Sing (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. “On My Way” from Marry Me (PR: 4) (-2)
7. “New Body Rhuma” from White Noise (PR: 10) (+3)
8. “This is a Life” from Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 6) (-2)
9. “I Ain’t Worried” from Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 8) (-1)
10. “Heartbeat” from Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
“Vegas” from Elvis
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Black Panther : Wakanda Forever (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Elvis (PR: 2) (-2)
5. The Fabelmans (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Empire of Light (PR: 6) (E)
7. Bardo (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: Not Ranked)
9. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 7) (-2)
10. The Batman (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Amsterdam
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)
2. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 2) (E)
3. Elvis (PR: 3) (E)
4. Babylon (PR: 4) (E)
5. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Batman (PR: 6) (E)
7. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 8) (E)
9. Nope (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Thirteen Lives (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Fabelmans
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 1) (E)
2. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 2) (E)
3. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 3) (E)
4. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Batman (PR: 4) (-2)
7. RRR (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Good Night Oppy (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Nope (PR: 7) (-3)
Dropped Out:
All Quiet on the Western Front
And that equates to these movies nabbing these numbers of nominations:
11 Nominations
Babylon
9 Nominations
The Fabelmans
8 Nominations
Everything Everywhere All at Once
7 Nominations
The Banshees of Inisherin, Women Talking
5 Nominations
All Quiet on the Western Front, Elvis, Top Gun: Maverick, The Whale
4 Nominations
Tar
3 Nominations
Avatar: The Way of Water, Empire of Light
2 Nominations
Bardo, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Triangle of Sadness, Turning Red
1 Nomination
All That Breathes, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, The Batman, Close, Decision to Leave, Descendant, Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris, Navalny, RRR, Saint Omer, She Said, The Son, Till, Strange World, Tell It Like a Woman, The Territory, Wendell and Wild, Where the Crawdads Sing, White Noise, The Woman King
After winning the Grand Jury Prize in the World Cinema Documentary competition at Sundance, All That Breathes has been winding its way through the fest circuit including Cannes and New York. The environmental doc from Shaunak Sen holds a 100% Rotten Tomatoes rating. It’s slated for an eventual HBO Max streaming bow after a limited and awards qualifying theatrical run before year’s end.
As I’ve opined about many times on this blog, predicting Documentary Feature is often the trickiest category to nail down. Breathes certainly has the prerequisites to make the quintet, but that often doesn’t matter. Bottom line: this is certainly one that should be in the conversation. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Danielle Deadwyler’s performance as Mamie Till-Mobley, mother of lynched Emmett Till in 1955 has come into focus this weekend. Chinonye Chukwu’s Till premiered at the New York Film Festival prior to its October 14th theatrical release. Over the past several months, I’ve had Deadwyler either just making the Best Actress cut in fifth or on the outside looking in at sixth.
Now that reviews are out, it appears she’s fully in. Critics are raving about her work to the extent that Deadwyler is a threat to win. The Rotten Tomatoes score for the picture itself is 100% though many write-ups claim it’s her performance that elevates the material. It’s unlikely any costars get attention. They include Jalyn Hall as her slain son, Frankie Faison, Haley Bennett, and Whoopi Goldberg.
Ms. Deadwyler enters an already crowded Best Actress field where I’ve had Cate Blanchett (Tar) and Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once) slotted in first and second. There’s also Michelle Williams and Universal’s curious decision to campaign for her in lead for The Fabelmans. Let’s not forget Olivia Colman (Empire of Light) and Viola Davis (The Woman King) or Ana de Armas (Blonde) and the as yet unseen Margot Robbie for Babylon (though I’m currently putting her in Supporting Actress).
Even with that considerable competition, Deadwyler seems pretty safe and there’s a narrative in which she moves past the aforementioned to claim gold. A better question is whether Till picks up any other nominations. Picture is not impossible, but I’d say it’s iffy. Adapted Screenplay is more feasible as that race is on the weak side (compared to 2022’s original hopefuls). There’s also an original song titled “Stand Up” that I expect to contend.
Bottom line: like Blanchett and Yeoh particularly, we have another close to sure thing in the lead actress field. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
My weekly Oscar predictions has at last expanded to all categories covering feature films! That means we have counts on how each picture will fare and I have Dune and Nightmare Alley leading the way to 10 nods apiece.
There are changes to ponder as Don’t Look Up takes the biggest fall. I have been toying with removing the Netflix disaster drama from Best Picture contention for a couple of weeks. A clip from the pic circulated yesterday and drew some criticism, but I wouldn’t judge it from that brief glimpse. This is more of a hunch that Up might not going for a BP vibe. So it’s out with Up and in with Spencer. Additionally, C’Mon C’Mon rises in Original Screenplay over Adam McKay’s latest.
In other developments:
The Tragedy of Macbeth premiered at the New York Film Festival Friday and solidified its BP viability. Same goes for Denzel Washington. There’s still a question mark as to whether Frances McDormand will be placed in lead or supporting (sounds like a case could be made for both). For now, I’m putting her back in Best Actress and saying she gets in. Same goes for Jennifer Hudson in Respect. Their inclusion knocks out Penelope Cruz (Parallel Mothers) and Olivia Colman (The Lost Daughter).
I’m back to projecting Bradley Cooper as a double nominee. His placement in Actor for Nightmare Alley removes Joaquin Phoenix (C’Mon C’Mon).
The Supporting Actress derby seems to be getting a new #1 each week. This time it’s Caitriona Balfe for Belfast.
Lots more to peruse in the inaugural expanded listings below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Belfast (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)
2. Nightmare Alley (PR: 3) (+1)
3. The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Dune (PR: 4) (E)
5. House of Gucci (PR: 5) (E)
6. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Licorice Pizza (PR: 6) (-1)
8. West Side Story (PR: 8) (E)
9. King Richard (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Spencer (PR: 12) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
11. Don’t Look Up (PR: 9) (-2)
12. Flee (PR: 16) (+4)
13. CODA (PR: 13) (E)
14. Mass (PR: 14) (E)
15. The Humans (PR: 11) (-4)
Dropped Out:
The Hand of God
The French Dispatch
Tick, Tick… Boom!
A Hero
The Lost Daughter
C’Mon C’Mon
Being the Ricardos
Cyrano
Passing
Parallel Mothers
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (E)
2. Guillermo del Toro, Nightmare Alley (PR: 2) (E)
3. Kenneth Branagh, Belfast (PR: 3) (E)
4. Denis Villeneuve, Dune (PR: 4) (E)
5. Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joel Coen, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Ridley Scott, House of Gucci (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Steven Spielberg, West Side Story (PR: 8) (E)
9. Jonas Poher Rasmussen, Flee (PR: 12)
10. Pablo Larrain, Spencer (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Adam McKay, Don’t Look Up
Paolo Sorrentino, The Hand of God
Reinaldo Marcus Green, King Richard
Asghar Farhadi, A Hero
Stephen Karam, The Humans
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Kristen Stewart, Spencer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Lady Gaga, House of Gucci (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Frances McDormand, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from supporting
5. Jennifer Hudson, Respect (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Rachel Zegler, West Side Story (PR: 8)
9. Jodie Comer, The Last Duel (PR: 13) (+4)
10. Cate Blanchett, Nightmare Alley (PR: 7) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos
Renate Reinsve, The Worst Person in the World
Jennifer Lawrence, Don’t Look Up
Emilia Jones, CODA
Halle Berry, Bruised
Tessa Thompson, Passing
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Will Smith, King Richard (PR: 1) (E)
2. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)
3. Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 3) (E)
4. Peter Dinklage, Cyrano (PR: 4) (E)
5. Bradley Cooper, Nightmare Alley (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joaquin Phoenix, C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Adam Driver, House of Gucci (PR: 7) (E)
8. Nicolas Cage, Pig (PR: 11( (+3)
9. Clifton Collins, Jr., Jockey (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Leonardo DiCaprio, Don’t Look Up (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Andrew Garfield, Tick, Tick… Boom!
Ben Foster, The Survivor
Jude Hill, Belfast
Cooper Hoffman, Licorice Pizza
Amir Jadidi, A Hero
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Caitriona Balfe, Belfast (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Ann Dowd, Mass (PR: 1) (-2)
4. Ariana DeBose, West Side Story (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jayne Houdyshell, The Humans (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Marlee Matlin, CODA (PR: 11) (+4)
8. Ruth Negga, Passing (PR: 14) (+6)
9. Toni Collette, Nightmare Alley (PR: 9) (E)
10. Meryl Streep, Don’t Look Up (PR: 12) (+2)
Dropped Out:
Frances McDormand, The Tragedy of Macbeth – moved to lead
Rooney Mara, Nightmare Alley
Judi Dench, Belfast
Martha Plimpton, Mass
Dakota Johnson, The Lost Daughter
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Bradley Cooper, Licorice Pizza (PR: 1) (E)
2. Richard Jenkins, The Humans (PR: 2) (E)
3. Jamie Dornan, Belfast (PR: 3) (E)
4. Jason Isaacs, Mass (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jared Leto, House of Gucci (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog (PR: 6) (E)
7. Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Corey Hawkins, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Jon Bernthal, King Richard (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Andrew Garfield, The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 14) (+4)
Dropped Out:
Mark Rylance, Don’t Look Up
Ciaran Hinds, Belfast
Willem Dafoe, Nightmare Alley
David Alvarez, West Side Story
Troy Kotsur, CODA
Reed Birney, Mass
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Belfast (PR: 1) (E)
2. Licorice Pizza (PR: 2) (E)
3. Mass (PR: 4) (+1))
4. King Richard (PR: 5) (+1)
5. C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Don’t Look Up (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Spencer (PR: 7) (E)
8. A Hero (PR: 10) (+2)
9. The Hand of God (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Worst Person in the World (PR: 12) (+2)
Dropped Out:
The French Dispatch
Parallel Mothers
Being the Ricardos
Last Night in Soho
Annette
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (E)
2. Nightmare Alley (PR: 2) (E)
3. House of Gucci (PR: 4) (+1)
4. The Humans (PR: 3) (-1)
5. The Lost Daughter (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 6) (E)
7. Dune (PR: 7) (E)
8. CODA (PR: 8) (E)
9. West Side Story (PR: 9) (E)
10. Passing (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Cyrano
Tick, Tick… Boom!
The Last Duel
The Green Knight
In the Heights
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Flee
2. Luca
3. Encanto
4. The Mitchells vs. the Machines
5. Belle
Other Possibilities:
6. Vivo
7. Raya and the Last Dragon
8. Charlotte
9. Ron’s Gone Wrong
10. Where Is Anne Frank
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. A Hero
2. Flee
3. The Hand of God
4. Petite Maman
5. The Worst Person in the World
Other Possibilities:
6. Parallel Mothers
7. Drive My Car
8. Compartment No. 6
9. 7 Prisoners
10. I’m Your Man
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Rescue
2. Flee
3. Attica
4. President
5. The Lost Leonardo
Other Possibilities:
6. Summer of Soul
7. Julia
8. The Sparks Brothers
9. The First Wave
10. Becoming Cousteau
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune
2. The Tragedy of Macbeth
3. Nightmare Alley
4. Belfast
5. The Power of the Dog
Other Possibilities:
6. West Side Story
7. Spencer
8. Licorice Pizza
9. The French Dispatch
10. The Hand of God
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Spencer
2. House of Gucci
3. Dune
4. Cruella
5. Nightmare Alley
Other Possibilities:
6. The Tragedy of Macbeth
7. West Side Story
8. Licorice Pizza
9. The French Dispatch
10. Cyrano
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune
2. Belfast
3. Nightmare Alley
4. Licorice Pizza
5. West Side Story
Other Possibilities:
6. The Power of the Dog
7. Don’t Look Up
8. House of Gucci
9. King Richard
10. Spencer
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. House of Gucci
2. Dune
3. Spencer
4. The Eyes of Tammy Faye
5. Nightmare Alley
Other Possibilities:
6. Cruella
7. Cyrano
8. West Side Story
9. Licorice Pizza
10. The French Dispatch
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune
2. Spencer
3. The Power of the Dog
4. The Tragedy of Macbeth
5. The French Dispatch
Other Possibilities:
6. Nightmare Alley
7. Licorice Pizza
8. Cyrano
9. Don’t Look Up
10. King Richard
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Be Alive” from King Richard
2. “No Time to Die” from No Time to Die
3. “Down to Joy” from Belfast
4. “Colombia, Mi Encanto” from Encanto
5. “Here I Am” from Respect
Other Possibilities:
6. “So May We Start” from Annette
7. “Every Letter” from Cyrano
8. “Believe” from The Rescue
9. “Don’t Look Up” from Don’t Look Up
10. “At the Automat” from The Automat
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Nightmare Alley
2. Dune
3. West Side Story
4. The French Dispatch
5. Spencer
Other Possibilities:
6. House of Gucci
7. Belfast
8. Licorice Pizza
9. The Tragedy of Macbeth
10. Cyrano
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune
2. West Side Story
3. The Matrix Resurrections
4. Nightmare Alley
5. The Tragedy of Macbeth
Other Possibilities:
6. Belfast
7. Don’t Look Up
8. No Time to Die
9. A Quiet Place Part II
10. King Richard
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune
2. The Matrix Resurrections
3. Eternals
4. Godzilla vs. Kong
5. Don’t Look Up
Other Possibilities:
6. Spider-Man: No Way Home
7. Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings
8. The Suicide Squad
9. Free Guy
10. Jungle Cruise
And that gives us the first take on how many nominations the various pictures will receive:
10 Nominations
Dune, Nightmare Alley
8 Nominations
Belfast
7 Nominations
The Power of the Dog
6 Nominations
House of Gucci, Spencer, The Tragedy of Macbeth
5 Nominations
Licorice Pizza, West Side Story
4 Nominations
King Richard
3 Nominations
Flee, The Humans, Mass
2 Nominations
Encanto, The Eyes of Tammy Faye, The French Dispatch, The Matrix Resurrections, Respect
1 Nomination
Attica, Belle, C’Mon C’Mon, Cruella, Cyrano, Don’t Look Up, Eternals, Godzilla vs. Kong, The Hand of God, A Hero, The Lost Daughter, The Lost Leonardo, Luca, The Mitchells vs. the Machines, No Time to Die, Petite Maman, President, The Rescue, The Worst Person in the World
The veil has lifted for a major awards hopeful with Joel Coen’s The Tragedy of Macbeth. This version of the Shakespearian tragedy casts Denzel Washington as Lord Macbeth and Frances McDormand as Lady Macbeth and it is kicking off the New York Film Festival. Between the two leads, they have five Oscars between them. Do they need to find more room on their shelves?
With Denzel, news from the Big Apple indicates yes. Some early reviews are calling it among his career best work. In the Best Actor derby, it’s likely that Benedict Cumberbatch (The Power of the Dog) and Will Smith (King Richard) have already punched their tickets to the dance. I believe we can add a third today with Mr. Washington.
With McDormand, it’s a bit more complicated. The answer may come down to whether distributor A24 elects for a campaign in lead or supporting. Based on the buzz, it sounds like a case could be made for either. My hunch is that Supporting Actress (which appears fairly wide open at the moment) will be the play. If so, McDormand probably stands a better chance for inclusion. I question whether her recent Best Actress victories (in 2017 for Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri and last year’s Nomadland) make her vulnerable to newcomers. Yet in Supporting Actress, I could easily see the Academy making room for her.
As for the rest of the cast, both Corey Hawkins and Kathryn Hunter are generating solid notices. However, their screen time could be a hindrance to make the cut (for Hunter, this definitely holds true if McDormand goes supporting).
Beyond Denzel, the cinematography is being heralded and it’s a safe bet Macbeth gets recognized there. Other techs like Production Design and Sound are feasible. Adapted Screenplay from Mr. Coen (making his first pic without brother Ethan) is in the cards. On the other hand, it’s said to deviate very little from the Shakespeare text and that may leave it off some ballots in that particular category.
Moving to the largest race of all, I’ve included Macbeth in my top ten for Best Picture all along. I don’t think it’s guaranteed a slot, but I don’t see myself moving it out based on the current buzz. Coen’s placement in Best Director is questionable but possible.
Bottom line: The Tragedy of Macbeth has elevated its lead actor and put itself in position for numerous other races. My Oscar Prediction posts for the films of 2021 will continue…
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