Tag: New York Film Festival

99th Academy Awards Predictions: October 12th Edition

In the two weeks that have gone by since my last update, the New York and London Film Festivals have given us our first looks at Behemoth!, Artificial, Wildwood, and Ray Gunn. We also had the dismal box office openings and mixed critical reaction for Digger and The Social Reckoning.

So what’s the verdict? Artificial has moved up in my estimation, especially for Andrew Garfield in Supporting Actor where it was recently confirmed he would be placed. Behemoth!, despite some decent buzz, falls out of Best Picture with Elsinore jumping into the BP ten for the first time. The Elsinore bump extends to Andrew Scott who rises to #1 in Best Actor.

Wildwood solidifies itself as the Animated Feature frontrunner with Ray Gunn probably faring well enough to make the quintet of nominees (though not a threat to win).

The Social Reckoning is likely DOA. Digger is more complicated. Yes, the reviews were decidedly all over the place. Yet the actors branch may choose to reward Tom Cruise for his work and, frankly, for taking a giant creative swing. He had moved out of my Best Actor quintet several weeks ago, but now he’s back in at the expense of Robert Pattinson (Primetime).

You can read all the movement below and my next update will be in approximately two weeks!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Project Hail Mary (PR: 4) (E)

5. Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (+2)

6. The Debut (PR: 5) (-1)

7. The Invite (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Obsession (PR: 9) (+1)

9. All of a Sudden (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Elsinore (PR: 14) (+4)

Other Possibilities:

11. I Play Rocky (PR: 11) (E)

12. Fjord (PR: 12) (E)

13. Artificial (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Being Heumann (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Possible Love (PR: 13) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Behemoth!

Digger

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo, The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Olivia Wilde, The Invite (PR: 4) (E)

5. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Jesse Eisenberg, The Debut (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Cristian Mungiu, Fjord (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Lee Chang-dong, Possible Love (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Tony Gilroy, Behemoth!

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Julianne Moore, The Debut (PR: 1) (E)

2. Inde Navarrette, Obsession (PR: 2) (E)

3. Olivia Wilde, The Invite (PR: 3) (E)

4. Sandra Hüller, Rose (PR: 4) (E)

5. Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Renate Reinsve, Fjord (PR: 6) (E)

7. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann (PR: 7) (E)

8. Emily Blunt, Disclosure Day (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Léa Seydoux, Gentle Monster (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Andrew Scott, Elsinore (PR: 2) (+1)

2. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Matt Damon, The Odyssey (PR: 3) (E)

4. Tom Cruise, Digger (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Robert Pattinson, Primetime (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Anthony Ippolito, I Play Rocky (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Sebastian Stan, Fjord (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Pedro Pascal, Behemoth! (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Jaafar Jackson, Michael (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Penélope Cruz, The Invite (PR: 2) (E)

3. Tao Okamoto, All of a Sudden (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Olivia Colman, Elsinore (PR: 5) (E)

5. Lola Dueñas, The Black Ball (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Samantha Morton, The Odyssey (PR: 3) (-3)

7. Penélope Cruz, The Black Ball (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Mariana di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Scarlett Johansson, Paper Tiger (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Esmé Creed-Miles, Sense and Sensibility

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Paul Giamatti, The Debut (PR: 1) (E)

2. Edward Norton, The Invite (PR: 2) (E)

3. Andrew Garfield, Artificial (PR: Not Ranked)

4. John Leguizamo, The Odyssey (PR: 4) (E)

5. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Guitarradelafuente, The Black Ball (PR: 6) (E)

7. Robert Pattinson, The Odyssey (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Colman Domingo, Michael (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Guy Pearce, Ink (PR: 6) (-4)

10. Riz Ahmed, Digger (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning

Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Debut (PR: 2) (E)

3. Obsession (PR: 3) (E)

4. Artificial (PR: Not Ranked)

5. Fjord (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Tender Loving Care (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Elsinore (PR: Not Ranked)

8. I Play Rocky (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Digger (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Possible Love (PR: 7) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Behemoth!

Club Kid

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Invite (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Odyssey (PR: 3) (E)

4. All of a Sudden (PR: 4) (E)

5. Project Hail Mary (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Being Heumann (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Ink (PR: 8) (E)

9. Primetime (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Wildwood (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Social Reckoning

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Black Ball (PR: 1) (E)

2. All of a Sudden (PR: 2) (E)

3. Fjord (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Possible Love (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Minotaur (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Rose (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Fatherland (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Woman Unknown (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Coward (PR: 9) (E)

10. Everytime (PR: 7) (-3)

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wildwood (PR: 1) (E)

2. Toy Story 5 (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Ray Gunn (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Iron Boy (PR: 4) (E)

5. Tangles (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Forgotten Island (PR: 6) (E)

7. Shaun the Sheep: The Beast of Mossy Bottom (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Hoppers (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Coyote vs. Acme (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Minions & Monsters (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

In Waves

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. NAZA (PR: 1) (E)

2. You Can See Everything (PR: 2) (E)

3. Once Upon a Time in Harlem (PR: 3) (E)

4. American Doctor (PR: 4) (E)

5. Rehearsals for a Revolution (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. One in a Million (PR: 5) (-1)

7. To Hold a Mountain (PR: 7) (E)

8. When a Witness Recants (PR: Not Ranked)

9. The History of Concrete (PR: 9) (E)

10. 14th (PR: 6) (-4)

Dropped Out:

Nuisance Bear

Best Casting

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Debut (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Being Heumann (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. I Play Rocky (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Fjord (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Artificial (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (-3)

10. All of a Sudden (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Michael

The Invite

Digger

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Black Ball (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Fatherland (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Werwulf (PR: 6) (E)

7. Digger (PR: 7) (E)

8. Disclosure Day (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Fjord (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Behemoth!

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 3) (E)

4. Dune: Part Three (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Michael (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Werwulf (PR: 4) (-2)

7. The Devil Wears Prada 2 (PR: 7) (E)

8. Wuthering Heights (PR: 9) (+1)

9. I Love Boosters (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Digger (PR: 10) (E)

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (+3)

4. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Debut (PR: 7) (+1)

7. You Can See Everything (PR: Not Ranked)

8. The Invite (PR: 8) (E)

9. Behemoth! (PR: 5) (-4)

10. I Play Rocky (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Primetime

Digger

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Werwulf (PR: 1) (E)

2. Digger (PR: 3) (+1)

3. The Odyssey (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Wicker (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Michael (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Clayface (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Rose (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Dune: Part Three (PR: 8) (E)

9. The Bride! (PR: 10) (+1)

10. The Black Ball (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Disclosure Day (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Wildwood (PR: 9) (+4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (E)

7. Behemoth! (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Artificial (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Debut (PR: 8) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Digger

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “La Nieve” from The Black Ball (PR: 1) (E)

2. “I Knew It, I Knew You” from Toy Story 5 (PR: 2) (E)

3. “This City May Have Chewed Me Up (But It Didn’t Spit Me Out)” from The Debut (PR: 3) (E)

4. “By Any Means” from By Any Means (PR: 4) (E)

5. “How to Write A Song (Without You)” from Power Ballad (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. “When I’m Home” from The Odyssey (PR: 7) (+1)

7. “The Better Part of Bravery” from Wildwood (PR: Not Ranked)

8. “Chains of Love” from Wuthering Heights (PR: 8) (E)

9. “Let Me Sell You a Dream” from Musk (PR: 6) (-3)

10. “Runway” from The Devil Wears Prada 2 (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

“Too Muck to Ask” from Ray Gunn

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 2) (E)

3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Black Ball (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Digger (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Backrooms (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Werwulf (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 8) (E)

9. Wildwood (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Wuthering Heights (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 2) (E)

3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Black Ball (PR: 7) (+4)

5. Disclosure Day (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Michael (PR: 6) (E)

7. Godzilla Minus Zero (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Whalefall (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Behemoth! (PR: 4) (-5)

10. Wildwood (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Debut

Werwulf

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Three (PR: 1) (E)

2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Odyssey (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Godzilla Minus Zero (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Spider-Man: Brand New Day (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Whalefall (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Avengers: Doomsday (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Wildwood (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Disclosure Day (PR: 10) (+1)

10. The End of Oak Street (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

The Sheep Detectives

That works out to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:

15 Nominations

The Odyssey

13 Nominations

The Black Ball

9 Nominations

Project Hail Mary

7 Nominations

Dune: Part Three, Wild Horse Nine

6 Nominations

All of a Sudden, The Debut, The Invite

3 Nominations

Digger, Elsinore, Obsession

2 Nominations

Artificial, Disclosure Day, Fjord, Michael, Toy Story 5, Wildwood

1 Nomination

American Doctor, Being Heumann, By Any Means, Fatherland, Godzilla Minus Zero, Iron Boy, Minotaur, NAZA, Once Upon a Time in Harlem, Possible Love, Power Ballad, Ray Gunn, Rehearsals for a Revolution, Rose, Sense and Sensibility, Spider-Man: Brand New Day, Tangles, Werwulf, Wicker, You Can See Everything

Oscar Predictions: Artificial

Recounting the company history of OpenAI, Artificial is a new tale involving a web-related reckoning from director Luca Guadagnino. Originally an Amazon MGM release, the studio controversially dropped the feature after it was completed with Neon eventually snatching the rights. Said to be a dark comedy, Andrew Garfield is OpenAI CEO Sam Altman with Yura Borisov as the company’s cofounder. The supporting cast includes Monica Barbaro, Cooper Hoffman, Jason Schwartzman, Chris O’Dowd, Ike Barinholtz, and Mark Rylance. It premiered at the New York Film Festival prior to its Christmas Day theatrical bow.

Based on initial reaction, Artificial could enter the chat as an awards contender in several races. That begins with Best Picture. The Rotten Tomatoes rating is 92% with Metacritic at 76. I view this as a hopeful in the 9-10 range of the 10 BP possibilities though it certainly may miss the cut entirely. An Original Screenplay nod is also feasible.

An announcement earlier this week confirmed that Borisov will be submitted in lead Actor with Barbaro vying for Supporting Actress. Both were nominees two years ago in the supporting fields for Anora and A Complete Unknown respectively. I am skeptical either get in. Garfield is another story. He’s a two-time nominee in Best Actor for 2016’s Hacksaw Ridge and 2021’s Tick, Tick… Boom! Neon is campaigning him in Supporting Actor and I do believe he stands a solid shot at making that quintet. I’ve yet to predict Garfield, but don’t be surprised if that changes in my next update for what sounds like a juicy role. As for the down-the-line attention, the score from Blur/Gorillaz frontman Damon Albarn is getting noticed.

While Challengers and Queer and After the Hunt ultimately became non-factors with the Academy, Artificial seems like Guadagnino’s first real shot at multiple noms since 2017’s Call Me by Your Name. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Clarissa

Two decades plus after receiving a Supporting Actress nomination for Hotel Rwanda, Sophie Okonedo is picking up raves for her lead work in Clarissa. Updating Virginia Woolf’s Mrs. Dalloway, the Nigerian set drama comes from directors and twin brothers Arie and Chuko Esiri. The supporting cast includes David Oyelowo, Toheeb Jimoh, India Amarteifio, Nikki Amuka-Bird, and Ayo Edebiri.

Clarissa premiered at Cannes with its stateside unveiling last week at the New York festival. Neon is planning a limited theatrical engagement on December 11th. Reviews are impressive with 95% on Rotten Tomatoes and 87 on Metacritic. I just wonder if exposure will be wide enough for Okonedo to nab her second try at gold. I suspect she’ll need some precursors or critics’ groups love to get the Academy’s attention. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Behemoth!

In his first directorial project since 2012’s The Bourne Legacy, Tony Gilroy’s Behemoth! has premiered at the New York Film Festival prior to its December 4th stateside bow. The Searchlight property from the Michael Clayton filmmaker casts Pedro Pascal as a cello prodigy returning home to his native L.A. The drama costars Olivia Wilde, Eva Victor, Will Arnett, and Hank Azaria.

I’ve had Behemoth! in my top 10 projected Best Picture nominees (usually in the 8-9 slot range) for awhile now. Now that it’s been seen, I’m less confident it makes the cut. Some reviews are quite laudatory but the 81% Rotten Tomatoes and 73 Metacritic also indicates mixed notices. I expect it will drop from BP when I do my next update.

The pic could still factor into other races. Wilde is getting some nice ink though I’m skeptical a Supporting Actress nom would occur, especially because she’s likely to get an Actress nod for The Invite. Pascal is another story. He could contend for his first Actor mention. Matt Damon (The Odyssey), John Malkovich (Wild Horse Nine), and Andrew Scott (Elsinore) seem like safe bets for inclusion in the quintet. That leaves two slots with several vying for attention. Pascal’s notices are solid enough that he belongs in that group along with Ryan Gosling (Project Hail Mary, who I’m more confident about than others), Robert Pattinson (Primetime), Anthony Ippolito (I Play Rocky), Sebastian Stan (Fjord), John Turturro (The Only Living Pickpocket in New York), Jaafar Jackson (Michael) and, yes, Tom Cruise in Digger.

Behemoth!‘s best shot might be in Best Original Score where nine individuals contributed including celebrated composers like James Newton Howard, Michael Giacchino, and Alan Silvestri. Critics especially took notice of that aspect. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Everytime

Austrian filmmaker Sandra Woller premiered psychological drama Everytime at the Cannes Film Festival where it won top honors in the Un Certain Regard section. Birgit Minichmayr, Tristán Lopez, Lotte Shirin Keiling, and Carla Hütterman lead the ensemble.

The pic is bouncing around the festival circuit and it’ll play the currently occurring New York event. Reviews put it at 100% on Rotten Tomatoes and an 89 Metacritic. Germany has announced Everytime as the hopeful for International Feature Film. In this decade, half of their picks have made the final cut.

In 2022, All Quiet on the Western Front nabbed the gold. The following year, The Teachers’ Lounge was nominated with The Seed of the Sacred Fig achieving the same the year after that. Everytime will compete for attention with higher profile entries including The Black Ball, All of a Sudden, Fjord, Possible Love, and Fatherland. Yet I wouldn’t discount the possibility of this managing to sneak in. I haven’t predicted it yet, but I think it belongs in the top 10 contenders worth mentioning. My Oscar Predictions posts will continue…

99th Academy Awards Predictions: September 27th Edition

We are now officially in the autumn phase of Oscar predicting mode. The New York Film Festival has just started where we will get our first reviews and official WOM for Behemoth! and Artificial, among others. Venice, Telluride, and Toronto have wrapped with the latter bestowing its Oscar bellwether People’s Choice Award to The Black Ball. In my view, that helps solidify what I’ve been projecting for months that Ball is a legit threat to The Odyssey for Best Picture. There’s a reason I’ve had them 1-2 for quite some time.

The London Film Festival is also around the corner and it’s notable for the premiere of Wildwood and Ray Gunn, two titles that could majorly shake up the Best Animated Feature competition.

Review embargoes will also lift in the coming days for Digger and The Social Reckoning. I’m skeptical about both regarding their awards viability in the highest profile races but the picture will become far clearer by the next update.

The fall season also means I’m condensing my picks and possibilities in the major categories. Best Picture is being whittled from 25 to 15 with the directing and acting derbies going from 15 to 10 hopefuls. That’s why the list of movies, filmmakers, and thespians dropping out below is extensive.

You can read all the movement below and my next update will arrive in a couple weeks!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Project Hail Mary (PR: 5) (+1)

5. The Debut (PR: 4) (-1)

6. The Invite (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Behemoth! (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Obsession (PR: 8) (-1)

10. All of a Sudden (PR: 10) (E)

Other Possibilities:

11. I Play Rocky (PR: 16) (+5)

12. Fjord (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Possible Love (PR: 14) (+1)

14. Elsinore (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Digger (PR: 12) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Michael

Ink

Club Kid

You Can See Everything

The Social Reckoning

Werwulf

Being Heumann

Primetime

Josephine

Sense and Sensibility

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo, The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Olivia Wilde, The Invite (PR: 4) (E)

5. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Jesse Eisenberg, The Debut (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 8) (E)

9. Tony Gilroy, Behemoth! (PR: 11) (+2)

10. Lee Chang-dong, Possible Love (PR: 12) (+2)

Dropped Out:

Cristian Mungiu, Fjord

Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Digger

Curry Barker, Obsession

Danny Boyle, Ink

Robert Eggers, Werwulf

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Julianne Moore, The Debut (PR: 1) (E)

2. Inde Navarrette, Obsession (PR: 2) (E)

3. Olivia Wilde, The Invite (PR: 3) (E)

4. Sandra Hüller, Rose (PR: 4) (E)

5. Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Renate Reinsve, Fjord (PR: 6) (E)

7. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Emily Blunt, Disclosure Day (PR: 11) (+2)

10. Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Léa Seydoux, Gentle Monster

Rosalind Eleazar, Misty Green

Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night

Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning

Sandra Hüller, Fatherland

Mason Reeves, Josephine

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (E)

2. Andrew Scott, Elsinore (PR: 2) (E)

3. Matt Damon, The Odyssey (PR: 3) (E)

4. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary (PR: 4) (E)

5. Robert Pattinson, Primetime (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Tom Cruise, Digger (PR: 6) (E)

7. Pedro Pascal, Behemoth! (PR: 7) (E)

8. Anthony Ippolito, I Play Rocky (PR: 8) (E)

9. Jaafar Jackson, Michael (PR: 9) (E)

10. Sebastian Stan, Fjord (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

John Turturro, The Only Living Pickpocket in New York

Seth Rogen, The Invite

Andrew Garfield, Artificial

Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Three

Jordan Firstman, Club Kid

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Penélope Cruz, The Invite (PR: 2) (E)

3. Samantha Morton, The Odyssey (PR: 3) (E)

4. Tao Okamoto, All of a Sudden (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Olivia Colman, Elsinore (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Penélope Cruz, The Black Ball (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Mariana di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Lola Dueñas, The Black Ball (PR: 4) (-4)

9. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Esmé Creed-Miles, Sense and Sensibility (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

Sandra Hüller, Digger

Scarlett Johansson, Paper Tiger

Gillian Anderson, Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Miasma

Eva Victor, Behemoth!

Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine

Elizabeth Debicki, The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Paul Giamatti, The Debut (PR: 1) (E)

2. Edward Norton, The Invite (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 2) (-1)

4. John Leguizamo, The Odyssey (PR: 4) (E)

5. Guy Pearce, Ink (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Guitarricadelafuente, The Black Ball (PR: 10) (+4)

7. Colman Domingo, Michael (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Robert Pattinson, The Odyssey (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 11) (+1)

Dropped Out:

John Goodman, Digger

Skyler Gisondo, Primetime

Riz Ahmed, Digger

Channing Tatum, Josephine

Tom Holland, The Odyssey

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Debut (PR: 3) (E)

3. Obsession (PR: 3) (E)

4. Behemoth! (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Tender Loving Care (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Fjord (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Possible Love (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Club Kid (PR: 5) (-3)

9. I Play Rocky (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Digger (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Elsinore

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Invite (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Odyssey (PR: 3) (E)

4. All of a Sudden (PR: 4) (E)

5. Project Hail Mary (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Being Heumann (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Ink (PR: 7) (-1)

9. The Social Reckoning (PR: 9) (E)

10. Primetime (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Black Ball (PR: 1) (E)

2. All of a Sudden (PR: 2) (E)

3. Possible Love (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Fjord (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Minotaur (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Fatherland (PR: 6) (E)

7. Everytime (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Rose (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Coward (PR: 9) (E)

10. Woman Unknown (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Silent Friend

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wildwood (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ray Gunn (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Toy Story 5 (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Iron Boy (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Tangles (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Forgotten Island (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Hoppers (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Shaun the Sheep: The Beast of Mossy Bottom (PR: 9) (+1)

9. In Waves (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Coyote vs. Acme (PR: Not Ranked)

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. NAZA (PR: 1) (E)

2. You Can See Everything (PR: 2) (E)

3. Once Upon a Time in Harlem (PR: 3) (E)

4. American Doctor (PR: 4) (E)

5. One in a Million (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. 14th (PR: 6) (E)

7. To Hold a Mountain (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Rehearsals for a Revolution (PR: 7) (-1)

9. The History of Concrete (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Nuisance Bear (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Closure

Best Casting

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Being Heumann (PR: 5) (+1)

5. The Debut (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 10) (+4)

7. Michael (PR: 6) (-1)

8. The Invite (PR: Not Ranked)

9. I Play Rocky (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Digger (PR: 7) (-3)

Dropped Out:

All of a Sudden

Fjord

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 2) (E)

3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Black Ball (PR: 4) (E)

5. Fatherland (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Werwulf (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Digger (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 8) (E)

9. Disclosure Day (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Behemoth! (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 3) (E)

4. Werwulf (PR: 4) (E)

5. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Michael (PR: 5) (-1)

7. The Devil Wears Prada 2 (PR: 8) (+1)

8. I Love Boosters (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Wuthering Heights (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Digger (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Mother Mary

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)

4. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Behemoth! (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (+1)

7. The Debut (PR: 4) (-3)

8. The Invite (PR: 8) (E)

9. Primetime (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Digger (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

You Can See Everything

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Werwulf (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Odyssey (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Digger (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Clayface (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Michael (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Rose (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Wicker (PR: 5) (-3)

8. Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (-1)

9. The Black Ball (PR: 10) (+1)

10. The Bride! (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Elsinore

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Disclosure Day (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Behemoth! (PR: 4) (E)

5. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 6) (-1)

8. The Debut (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Wildwood (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Digger (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Werwulf

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “La Nieve” from The Black Ball (PR: 2) (+1)

2. “I Knew It, I Knew You” from Toy Story 5 (PR: 3) (+1)

3. “This City May Have Chewed Me Up (But It Hasn’t Spit Me Out)” from The Debut (PR: 1) (-2)

4. “By Any Means” from By Any Means (PR: 4) (E)

5. “How to Write a Song (Without You)” from Power Ballad (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Let Me Sell You a Dream” from Musk (PR: 6) (E)

7. “When I’m Home” from The Odyssey (PR: 7) (E)

8. “Chains of Love” from Wuthering Heights (PR: 9) (+1)

9. “Runway” from The Devil Wears Prada 2 (PR: 8) (-1)

10. “Too Much to Ask” from Ray Gunn (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

“Save the Day” from Hoppers

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 2) (E)

3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)

4. Digger (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Werwulf (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Black Ball (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Backrooms (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 8) (E)

9. Wuthering Heights (PR: 9) (E)

10. The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Wild Horse Nine

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 2) (E)

3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)

4. Behemoth! (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Disclosure Day (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Michael (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Black Ball (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Godzilla Minus Zero (PR: Not Ranked)

9. The Debut (PR: 9) (E)

10. Werwulf (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Digger

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Three (PR: 1) (E)

2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)

3. Godzilla Minus Zero (PR: 8) (+5)

4. The Odyssey (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Spider-Man: Brand New Day (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Avengers: Doomsday (PR: 6) (E)

7. Whalefall (PR: 4) (-3)

8. The Sheep Detectives (PR: 7) (-1)

9. The End of Oak Street (PR: 9) (E)

10. Disclosure Day (PR: 10 (E)

That equates to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:

16 Nominations

The Odyssey

10 Nominations

The Black Ball

9 Nominations

Project Hail Mary

7 Nominations

Wild Horse Nine

6 Nominations

All of a Sudden, The Debut, Dune: Part Three, The Invite

5 Nominations

Behemoth!

3 Nominations

Obsession, Werwulf

2 Nominations

Digger, Disclosure Day, Elsinore, Toy Story 5

1 Nomination

American Doctor, Being Heumann, By Any Means, Clayface, Fatherland, Fjord, Godzilla Minus Zero, Ink, Iron Boy, Michael, Minotaur, NAZA, Once Upon a Time in Harlem, One in a Million, Possible Love, Power Ballad, Primetime, Ray Gunn, Rose, Sense and Sensibility, Spider-Man: Brand New Day, Tangles, Tender Loving Care, Wildwood, You Can See Everything

Oscar Predictions: Godzilla Minus Zero

Following up on the 2023’s heralded Godzilla Minus One, writer/director Takashi Yamazaki has premiered his kaiju sequel Godzilla Minus Zero at the New York Film Festival. Set to hit screens domestically on November 6th, Zero counts returning cast members Ryunosuke Kamiki, Minabi Hamabe, Yuki Yamada, Kuranosuke Sasaki, Miou Tanaka, Sakura Ando, and Hidetaka Yoshioka. Newcomers include Jun Kunimura, Masami Nagasawa, and Min Tanaka.

The Toho effort marks the 38th overall entry in the 70 year plus franchise. Many critics claimed Godzilla Minus One was at the very top in terms of quality. It scored 99% on Rotten Tomatoes with an 81 Metacritic. Big Apple reaction to the sequel isn’t far behind with 93% on RT and a 78 MC.

Reviews all praise the visual effects. In 2023, Minus One ended up being a surprise winner in VE over The Creator and Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3. While its victory on the night wasn’t shocking, few saw it coming in the months prior. I’ve had Zero in and out of my VE quintet over the past few months. I’m far more convinced it’ll make the cut after the festival unveiling.

I’m not expecting a repeat trip to the Oscar stage for Yamazaki and his team. Three years ago, there simply weren’t as many spectacles in contention. Zero will have to compete with Project Hail Mary, The Odyssey, and one would certainly think the unscreened Dune: Part Three (both predecessors won the category). Beyond the visuals, the fiery green giant monster’s latest is a possibility in Sound if it makes the shortlist (One did not). My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: A Long Winter

Andrew Haigh has been a critics darling over the past decade plus with 45 Years, Lean on Pete, and All of Us Strangers. He’s yet to have a major Oscar breakout (though Charlotte Rampling was up in Actress for 45 Years). His latest is the coming-of-age drama A Long Winter which premiered at Telluride and soon moves to the Toronto and New York fests. Fred Hechinger, Kit Connor, Ebon Moss-Bachrach, Caitriona Balfe, and D’Pharaoh Woon-A-Tai make up the ensemble.

With Metacritic at 79, reviews are respectful but I don’t think they go far enough for this to contend in Best Picture. Hechinger and Balfe are receiving decent notices. However, Winter‘s only shot seems to be in Cinematography and I’m not convinced a major campaign will be mounted for it to sneak in. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Tender Loving Care

Legendary English auteur Mike Leigh has stated that Tender Loving Care is most likely his last feature film after a career of indie dramas. Several have garnered awards attention including seven personal mentions for his directing or screenwriting. Those nominations cover a quintet of pics: 1996’s Secrets & Lies, 1999’s Topsy-Turvy, Vera Drake from 2004, 2008’s Happy-Go-Lucky, and 2010’s Another Year. Leigh has yet to win.

Care stars Kate O’Flynn, Marion Bailey (Leigh’s real life partner), Paul Jesson, and Alice Bailey Johnson. Premiering at Telluride before moving to Toronto and New York, Bleecker Street is releasing it December 4th. Early reviews indicate this is a touching dramedy that would serve as a fine swan song to his career.

I’m not so sure the critical reaction is strong enough for this to be in the Best Picture conversation. O’Flynn and Bailey, in a best case scenario, could be chatted up in the Actress and Supporting Actress fields. The former is having a banner year with an acclaimed performance on Apple TV’s Widow’s Bay which could earn her an Emmy.

The likeliest scenario might be Leigh receiving his sixth and potentially final try in Original Screenplay and that being Care‘s sole nomination. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: The Unknown

Arthur Harari’s psychological thriller The Unknown premiered at Cannes and is working its way through the festival circuit with stops planned in Toronto and New York. The director is best known for cowriting the Oscar winning screenplay for 2022’s Anatomy of a Fall. The body swapping tale stars Léa Seydoux with a supporting cast including Niels Schneider, Victoire Du Bois, and Radu Jude.

Reaction from the French Riviera was tempered in its praise. The Rotten Tomatoes rating is 68% with 62 on Metacritic. I don’t see this as an awards contender and any attention for Seydoux’s acting will probably be for Gentle Monster (another Cannes debut with mixed notices). My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…