Tag: Disney

Oscar Predictions: Wildwood

Stop-motion indie animation studio Laika is 5 for 5 when it comes to nominations for Best Animated Feature and 0 for 5 in podium trips. Each time they have lost to Disney. In 2009, Laika’s inaugural project Coraline went down to Up. Three years later, ParaNorman fell short to Brave while 2014’s The Boxtrolls couldn’t beat out Big Hero 6. In 2016, Kubo and the Two Strings didn’t catch Zootopia. Missing Link in 2019 was an honorable mention to Toy Story 4.

That dynamic may finally change in 2026. Travis Knight, who directed Kubo, is back with the studio (months after the live-action Masters of the Universe debacle) via Wildwood. The dark fantasy, based on a 2011 novel, has premiered at the London Film Festival and arrives theatrically on October 23rd. Voiceover artists include Peyton Elizabeth Lee, Jacob Tremblay, Carey Mulligan, Mahershala Ali, Awkwafina, Angela Bassett, Jake Johnson, Charlie Day, Amandla Stenberg, Jemaine Clement, Tom Waits, and Richard E. Grant.

For the last several weeks on the blog, I’ve had Wildwood listed at #1 in Animated Feature based mostly on hunch. There’s also the matter of Disney’s Toy Story 5 and Hoppers not seeming like win contenders. Early WOM from London encourages my notion. Rotten Tomatoes is at 100% with several reviews calling it Laika’s strongest entry thus far. I would be surprised if it didn’t remain my frontrunner in the animated field moving forward.

Can Wildwood branch out elsewhere? The short answer is yes. A solid campaign could open up Adapted Screenplay or Visual Effects. The score is being complimented and the Decemberists have an original song titled “The Better Part of Bravery”. I also could see this being a lone Animated Feature player and the first that gets past the Mouse House. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Ray Gunn

Since Best Animated Feature became a category at the Oscars in 2001, Brad Bird is 3 for 3 in terms of nominations and 2 for 3 in terms of wins. His tenure with Disney/Pixar led to victories for 2004’s The Incredibles and 2007’s Ratatouille while 2018’s Incredibles 2 was in contention but fell short to Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse. His debut, 1999’s The Iron Giant, would have certainly been up had the competition existed.

Bird’s latest is Ray Gunn and it has premiered at the London Film Festival prior to its December 4th limited theatrical release and December 18th Netflix bow. Said to be the filmmaker’s dream project, the sci-fi noir mystery features the voices of Sam Rockwell, Scarlett Johansson, Tom Waits, Matt Berry, Bobby Cannavale, Michelle Rodriguez, Matt Jones, Aasif Mandvi, Alan Tudyk, and Kathryn Hunter.

Word-of-mouth across the pond gives Gunn a 91% Rotten Tomatoes score. A closer look at the write-ups reveal plenty of recommendations with reservations. Bird’s first effort in nearly a decade should have enough goodwill to get in the Animated Feature quintet, but I’m skeptical that a win narrative exists. There’s another London premiere that does have that narrative and its Oscar Prediction post is imminent.

Netflix will campaign the song “Too Muck to Ask” (performed by Johansson in the pic) in Original Song and Michael Giacchino is behind the score. Both are worth considering if they manage to make their respective shortlists though I’ve yet to seriously consider either for inclusion. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

September 25-27 Box Office Predictions

As September closes out, the top 5 should consist of 80% fresh product with four titles primed to gross $10 million and higher. However, current champ Resident Evil could maintain first position. We have the re-release of the MCU’s Avengers: Endgame Encore, DreamWorks Animation’s Forgotten Island, Brad Pitt and a German Shepherd in the survival tale Heart of the Beast, and Robert Pattinson headlining the biographical thriller Primetime. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newbies here:

Avengers: Endgame Encore Box Office Prediction
Forgotten Island Box Office Prediction
Heart of the Beast Box Office Prediction
Primetime Box Office Prediction

Let’s start with a caveat – this is an unpredictable frame. I believe all the newcomers have a shot at outperforming my forecasts. Avengers and Island, in particular, could exceed expectations and challenge for the top spot. My hunch is that, even with a 60% drop (fine for its genre), Resident Evil will maintain its #1 bragging rights with a mid-20s gross.

If I get the order of 2-5 right, I’ll be happy with myself. For the incoming quartet, I have all placing between $10-$20 million. With the advantage of following Spider-Man: Brand New Day and meant to drum up anticipation for December’s Avengers: Doomsday, Disney/Marvel’s Endgame return to theaters could approach the $20 million figure and I have it achieving runner-up status.

With solid reviews, Forgotten Island could be right behind in third or be second. The fact that it’s not based on known IP could be a hurdle for kiddos and parents to RSVP.

Pitt’s Beast, his first pic since last summer’s blockbuster F1, is also drawing decent critical reaction. Mid to high teens is certainly doable for a fourth place finish.

Primetime is perhaps the biggest unknown. With Pattinson as To Catch a Predator host Chris Hansen, the trailer is buzzy as was reaction at the Venice Film Festival earlier this month. This might have more audience members seated than I’m estimating but my prognosis in the low teens has it rounding out the top five. I also wouldn’t be shocked if it fell between $8-13 million or even approached $20 million.

Here’s how I have this fascinating weekend shaking out:

1. Resident Evil

Predicted Gross: $24 million

2. Avengers: Endgame Encore

Predicted Gross: $22.6 million

3. Forgotten Island

Predicted Gross: $17.2 million

4. Heart of the Beast

Predicted Gross: $16.8 million

5. Primetime

Predicted Gross: $14.5 million

Box Office Results (September 18-20)

Horror enthusiasts and gamers came out in droves for Zach Cregger’s reboot of the Resident Evil franchise. The well-reviewed eighth overall entry in the series boasted a $60.1 million premiere, managing to top my $55.8 million prediction. That more than doubles the previous best of the bunch – 2010’s Resident Evil: Afterlife at $26 million and sets a personal best for the Weapons filmmaker.

Practical Magic 2 was second with a 60% fall in frame #2 as the witchy sequel made $12.1 million, in line with my $12.4 million take. Falling on the low end of its range, the two-week total is $50 million.

Summer holdovers populated slots 3-5. Spider-Man: Brand New Day was third with $6.4 million compared to my $4.7 million call. Earlier in the week, Day surpassed 2015’s Star Wars: The Force Awakens to become the largest domestic grosser of all time at $944 million after eight weeks.

The Odyssey was fourth with $4.9 million (I said $4.6 million) as Christopher Nolan’s epic brought its tally to $609 million in ten weeks.

Finally, Coyote vs. Acme was fifth with $4.4 million, ahead of my $3.5 million projection for $54 million in four weeks.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Avengers: Endgame Encore Box Office Prediction

Sporting an extra couple minutes of runtime from the 2019 original and primed to build anticipation for Doomsday, Disney/Marvel unveils Avengers: Endgame Encore on September 25th. The epic 22nd feature in the MCU is already the second highest grossing pic worldwide ever (behind Avatar) and would need a bit over $125 million globally to take the crown back.

The re-release immediately follows another record for the franchise. Spider-Man: Brand New Day just became the (unadjusted for inflation) #1 domestic earner of all time. Endgame, with its voluminous list of cast members from Robert Downey Jr.’s Tony Stark to the Chris triumvirate (Evans, Hemsworth, Pratt) to Robert Redford’s final screen appearance and so many more, should benefit from being sandwiched between New Day and Doomsday.

Estimates have this making anywhere from late teens to late 20s. I’m going more on the lower end of that spectrum. That might put it in the mix for the top spot depending on the sophomore frame for Resident Evil.

Avengers: Endgame Encore opening weekend prediction: $22.6 million

For my Heart of the Beast prediction, click here:

Heart of the Beast Box Office Prediction

For my Forgotten Island prediction, click here:

Forgotten Island Box Office Prediction

For my Primetime prediction, click here:

Primetime Box Office Prediction

September 11-13 Box Office Predictions

Spidey’s reign atop the box office charts looks to end this weekend with the release of Practical Magic 2. We also have the South Korean sci-fi action epic Hope and period action drama The Uprising out. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the trio here:

Practical Magic 2 Box Office Prediction
Hope Box Office Prediction
The Uprising Box Office Prediction

Reuniting Sandra Bullock and Nicole Kidman 26 years after their witchy original, Practical Magic 2 has a nostalgia factor and an appeal to a female audience that could mean an impressive start. My high 40s projection gives it (unadjusted for inflation) more in its first frame than the 1998 original made in its entire domestic run.

Hope is a wild card as the South Korean release boasts the widest opening from its country since 2019’s Parasite. The Wednesday bow has me thinking it’ll manage a fifth place start over the traditional weekend with nearly $10 million over the five-day.

My hunch is that The Uprising from Paul Greengrass and starring Andrew Garfield will struggle. Out on a smallish 1500 reported screens, my mid single digits estimate should mean a premiere just outside the top five.

As for holdovers, Spider-Man: Brand New Day may still manage double digits as it finally moves to the runner-up spot while The Odyssey and Coyote vs. Acme should be third and fourth. Here’s how I see it shaking out:

1. Practical Magic 2

Predicted Gross: $43.5 million

2. Spider-Man: Brand New Day

Predicted Gross: $10.3 million

3. The Odyssey

Predicted Gross: $8.6 million

4. Coyote vs. Acme

Predicted Gross: $6.2 million

5. Hope

Predicted Gross: $5.9 million (Friday to Sunday); $9.4 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

6. The Uprising

Predicted Gross: $4.2 million

Box Office Results (September 4-7)

Capping off a fruitful summer, the Labor Day weekend was a winner for the MCU as Spider-Man: Brand New Day put up $23.7 million from Friday to Monday. That’s right on pace with my $23 million prediction with the juggernaut hitting $923 million after six weeks. It is now just $13 million away from the all-time domestic record of $936 million held by Star Wars: The Force Awakens. That record looks to fall in the coming days.

The Odyssey was once again #2 with $17.2 million, eclipsing my $14.8 million projection. Christopher Nolan’s all-time largest earner grew to $588 million after eight weeks.

Coyote vs. Acme held up impressively in third for its sophomore outing with $16.1 million compared to my $13.2 million call. The tally is $38 million for the live-action/animated hybrid that nearly didn’t see the light of day.

The holiday weekend’s top grossing newcomer was By Any Means with Mark Wahlberg. The crime thriller was fourth with $9.2 million, a bit ahead of my $7.8 million forecast.

Disney/Pixar’s 20th anniversary re-release of Cars rounded out the top five with $8 million and I incorrectly had it outside of the top half of the chart.

Insidious: Out of the Further placed sixth and also took in $8 million (I said $7.5 million). The horror sequel has scared up $55 million in three weeks.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

September 4-7 Box Office Predictions

There are multiple new releases making their way to multiplexes over the Labor Day frame, but I only have one managing a top five showing. That would be 1960s set crime thriller By Any Means with Mark Wahlberg and Yahya Abdul-Mateen II as it attempts double digits over the holiday weekend. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:

By Any Means Box Office Prediction

As summer turns into fall on the cinematic calendar, the MCU should be perched atop the charts for a sixth weekend in a row courtesy of Spider-Man: Brand New Day. A note that over this particular weekend, holdovers often experience minimal percentage declines or even a slight increase as moviegoers catch up on recent offerings. From Friday to Monday, I have Spidey essentially doing what it did in its fifth outing.

The Odyssey could return to second place from third while Coyote vs. Acme drops a spot after a notable premiere (more on that below). The latter’s second week drop is a head scratcher and it could be more front-loaded that I’m assuming. On the flip side, families could show up in solid numbers since it appears to have fresh word-of-mouth with an A Cinemascore.

Means may flirt with $10M+ in a best case scenario though I’ve got falling under for a fourth place start and Insidious: Out of the Further rounding out the top five.

As for other fresh product, I’m skeptical that horror offering Onslaught from Adam Wingard, survival flick sequel Fall 2: Deadpoint (out Wednesday), or Pixar’s 20th anniversary re-issue of Cars populate the top half of the top ten so no individual posts for that trio.

And with that, here’s how I have the top 5 shaking out and keep in mind that these are Friday through Monday guesstimates:

1. Spider-Man: Brand New Day

Predicted Gross: $23 million

2. The Odyssey

Predicted Gross: $14.8 million

3. Coyote vs. Acme

Predicted Gross: $13.2 million

4. By Any Means

Predicted Gross: $7.8 million

5. Insidious: Out of the Further

Predicted Gross: $7.5 million

Box Office Results (August 28-30)

As anticipated, Spider-Man: Brand New Day had no trouble swinging to a fifth victory with $22.5 million, in line with my $23.2 million call. With $891 million in its coffers, Day looks to exceed domestic record holder Star Wars: The Force Awakens ($936 million) in short order.

After Warner Bros jettisoned it as a tax write-off in 2023, Ketchup Entertainment squeezed some decent figures out of the live-action/animated hybrid Coyote vs. Acme. With $15.9 million, it was runner-up and surpassed my $13.8 million projection. Considering it was never going to see the light of day if WB had their way, it’s a better than expected result.

The Odyssey was third after four weeks in second position with $14.3 million, just under my $15.6 million call for a seven-week take of $563 million.

Insidious: Out of the Further dropped 59% in its sophomore weekend with $10.2 million compared to my $9.4 million take. The sixth feature in the horror franchise is at $43 million total.

With so-so reviews and muted WOM, Ridley Scott’s The Dog Stars starring Jacob Elordi, Josh Brolin, and Margaret Qualley failed to find an audience in fifth with $7.7 million (I said $8.3 million).

Finally, Roadside Attractions had a laudable showing with the low-budget Buddy in sixth. I didn’t do a prediction write-up for it, but the satirical horror tale made $5.5 million. The per theater average nearly equaled that of Acme.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

August 7-9 Box Office Predictions

A history making weekend just occurred at the box office with Spider-Man: Brand New Day and The Odyssey breaking records. The blockbuster duo should easily rule the charts once again but we do have newcomers jockeying for third place. The Broken Lizard comedy gang returns in Super Troopers 3 while Monica Barbaro and Callum Turner headline the rom com One Night Only. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on them here:

One Night Only Box Office Prediction
Super Troopers 3 Box Office Prediction

We’ll get to the newbies in a minute, but let’s talk Spidey. Brand New Day, the 38th overall MCU pic and 4th franchise effort with Tom Holland in the title role, swung the best opening weekend ever domestically (more on that below). Edging out seven-year record holder Avengers: Endgame by $3 million, Day could be in contention for the highest second frame of all time. In order to do so, it would need to top the $149 million that Star Wars: The Force Awakens earned in 2015 (Endgame did $147 million in its sophomore outing). I’m projecting it’ll get there with a gross just north of $150 million.

Christopher Nolan’s epic The Odyssey should continue its fantastic run with a second place finish in the $30-35 million range.

Third place is more of a question mark and I’m predicting a photo finish between One Night and Troopers. I don’t see either of them greatly exceeding expectations. My $7-8 million take on both gives Night minor bragging rights in third.

Toy Story 5 should place fifth and here’s how I have it shaking out:

1. Spider-Man: Brand New Day

Predicted Gross: $153 million

2. The Odyssey

Predicted Gross: $31.6 million

3. One Night Only

Predicted Gross: $7.8 million

4. Super Troopers 3

Predicted Gross: $7.6 million

5. Toy Story 5

Predicted Gross: $4.9 million

Box Office Results (July 31-August 2)

Spider-Man: Brand New Day astonished prognosticators and pummeled my prediction by nearly $100 million (!) as the MCU sequel swung $360 million. That’s way beyond my $268 million take and ahead of Endgame‘s $357 million record. Audience anticipation was clearly sky high after 2021 predecessor No Way Home as this looks to dominate August at multiplexes.

The Odyssey landed another $51 million in its third weekend to bring its gargantuan total to $395 million. That added coin, coupled with Spider-Man, contributed to the best box office weekend in history (unadjusted for inflation). My projection was slightly lower at $48.5 million.

Toy Story 5 was third in its seventh go-round with $6.7 million, a tad more than my $6.1 million call. The Pixar sequel has hauled in $462 million thus far.

Minions & Monsters was fourth with $6 million compared to my $5.6 million forecast for a five-week tally of $168 million.

Disney’s Moana rounded out the top five with $5.6 million (I said $5.7 million) for $115 million after four weeks.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

July 31-August 2 Box Office Predictions

Blogger’s Note (07/29): Spidey prediction was raised from $251 million to $268 million. That’s means I’m projecting it gets the #2 all-time domestic debut.

After a year away from multiplexes, the Marvel Cinematic Universe swings back into theaters with Spider-Man: Brand New Day. The fourth entry in Tom Holland’s web slinger franchise seeks and is highly likely to achieve 2026’s largest domestic debut. My detailed prediction post for it can be accessed here:

Spider-Man: Brand New Day Box Office Prediction

The year’s biggest stateside premiere belongs to Toy Story 5 at $159 million and Spidey should have no trouble toppling that record. A better question is where it’ll rank all-time in the U.S. and Canada. Projections are rising among some prognosticators. While the $357 million hauled in by Avengers: Endgame appears safe, some believe #2 could be in danger. That’s held by Brand predecessor Spider-Man: No Way Home at $260 million. My number puts it in fourth (and fourth MCU overall) just behind Avengers: Infinity War ($257 million) and ahead of Star Wars: The Force Awakens ($247 million).

After two impressive stints in first, Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey will fall to second. While its sophomore weekend hold was dynamite (more on that below), I’ll project a mid-40s decline this time around due to Mr. Holland’s other adventure.

The rest of top six should be a close race between family fare Toy Story 5, Moana, and Minions & Monsters. Here’s how I have it shaking out:

1. Spider-Man: Brand New Day

Predicted Gross: $268 million

2. The Odyssey

Predicted Gross: $48.5 million

3. Toy Story 5

Predicted Gross: $6.1 million

4. Moana

Predicted Gross: $5.7 million

5. Minions & Monsters

Predicted Gross: $5.6 million

Box Office Results (July 24-26)

The Odyssey continued its fabulous box office journey with a scant 27% ease in weekend #2. Adding $90 million to its coffers, the eventual Oscar contender has amassed $289 million as it breezed past my $74.6 million prediction. After a massive start, word-of-mouth is clearly assisting Nolan’s latest.

Moana was second with $10.6 million, in range with my $10.2 million estimate. The live-action version of Disney’s 2016 animated feature passed nine digits with $102 million after three weeks. There’s no doubt the studio was hoping for more at this juncture.

Hadestown: The Musical, a stage recording of the Broadway smash, kicked off with $10.2 million in third and ahead of my $8.5 million call. Initially set for a five-day engagement in theaters, demand has changed the release plan.

Toy Story 5 was fourth with $10.1 million (I said $9.7 million) for a six-week tally of $448 million. Animated competition Minions & Monsters rounded out the top five with $9.7 million compared to my $9 million take. In four weeks, it has taken in $155 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

July 24-26 Box Office Predictions

Blogger’s Update (07/22): Hadestown: The Musical, captures a live recording of the Tony award winning smash and has a five-day theatrical run beginning Friday. I did not do an individiual prediction post for it since I am still unaware of its theater count. That said, pre-sales look strong so I’m projecting it falls just under $10 million for fifth place. Under the right circumstances, it could be as high as second.

With epic hit The Odyssey entering a fruitful second frame and Spider-Man: Brand New Day hitting on July 31st, studios are avoiding any significant wide releases this weekend.

Christopher Nolan’s awards contender based on Homer’s Greek works exceeded expectations (more on that below). Along with critics, moviegoers are on its side with an A Cinemascore grade and 97% audience score on RT. The filmmaker’s Oscar-winning predecessor Oppenheimer declined 43% in its sophomore outing and I could see a similar result here. In fact, I think it might witness a smaller percentage drop. That would mean a gross nearing or at $75 million.

Disney should once again hold spots 2-3 with Moana and Toy Story 5 while Illuminations Entertainment’s Minions & Monsters places fourth. The grosses for the three family offerings could be close and that makes the rankings slightly tricky to call.

Here’s how I see it shaking out:

1. The Odyssey

Predicted Gross: $74.6 million

2. Moana

Predicted Gross: $10.2 million

3. Toy Story 5

Predicted Gross: $9.7 million

4. Minions & Monsters

Predicted Gross: $9 million

5. Hadestown: The Musical

Predicted Gross: $8.5 million

Box Office Results (July 17-19)

As mentioned, The Odyssey began its powerful and likely long cinematic journey to grand results with $123.5 million. That’s ahead of my $106.2 million prediction and boasts the third highest domestic Nolan debut behind The Dark Knight Rises and The Dark Knight. It is also the greatest foreign start for any feature from the auteur.

Moana fell a steep but anticipated 58% to second with $17.9 million compared to my $19.1 million projection. The underwhelming two-week results for the Mouse House are $81 million.

Toy Story 5 was third with $13.7 million, a tad more than my $12.4 million forecast. Disney is not underwhelmed in this case with $429 million in five weeks.

Minions & Monsters was right behind in fourth with $13.6 million, on target with my $13.7 million estimate. The three-week tally is $136 million.

Finally, Evil Dead Burn was fifth with $4.7 million (I said $5.5 million) with a 65% drop in weekend #2. The total is $23 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

July 17-19 Box Office Predictions

Christopher Nolan’s eagerly awaited epic The Odyssey looks to dominate the box office charts this weekend. Perched in what has become the bankable filmmaker’s typical mid-July release date, it is the only new picture out wide and you can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:

The Odyssey Box Office Prediction

The range for The Odyssey is all over the map for the adaptation of Homer’s tale. On the low end we are talking $80 million while the rosiest expectations have it landing around $130 million. My projection gives it nine digits out of the gate for what should be a healthy summer run.

Holdover family friendly flicks should populate spots 2-4. Disney’s Moana did not have a splashy start (more on that below) and we could see a mid 50s decline to just below $20 million. Animated efforts Minions & Monsters and Toy Story 5 should follow.

After a subpar premiere, Evil Dead Burn is likely to round out the top five with a hefty decline typical for horror fare.

Here’s how I have it shaking out:

1. The Odyssey

Predicted Gross: $106.2 million

2. Moana

Predicted Gross: $19.1 million

3. Minions & Monsters

Predicted Gross: $13.7 million

4. Toy Story 5

Predicted Gross: $12.4 million

5. Evil Dead Burn

Predicted Gross: $5.5 million

Box Office Results (July 10-12)

A lot of parents and kids sat out the live-action rendering of Disney’s Moana. With mediocre reviews and quiet buzz, the musical adventure starring Dwayne Johnson brought in $43.1 million. With a reported $250 million price tag, that’s a huge letdown for the Mouse Hunt and well under my $54.3 million prediction.

After a less than anticipated rollout over the Fourth of July frame, Minions & Monsters dropped to second with $21.1 million. That’s in range with my $20 million call as Illumination Entertainment’s latest animated comedy declined 43%. The two-week take is $108 million as it is poised to become the lowest grossing domestic earner of the seven Despicable Me/Minions sagas.

Toy Story 5 was third with $19 million, ahead of my $16.2 million forecast. The fifth feature in the Pixar franchise sits at $404 million after four weeks.

Evil Dead Burn was not a hot commodity in fourth with just $13.7 million compared to my generous $21.9 million take. The third entry in this current iteration of Dead series came in well below the mid 20s debuts of its predecessors.

Young Washington proved to be a Fourth of July play with a considerable 64% plummet in its sophomore weekend. At $6.9 million, it failed to reach my $11 million projection. The two-week total is a laudable $33 million for the Angel Studios production.

Finally, Olivia Wilde’s acclaimed comedy The Invite expanded nationwide and was sixth with $5.7 million (I said $6.4 million). It has made $7.3 million when factoring in the limited engagements that started a couple weeks back.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…