Tag: Disney

June 26-28 Box Office Predictions

Supergirl will attempt to fly high and challenge Toy Story 5 for box office bragging rights as June closes out, but it faces considerable odds. The DC Studios adventure opens alongside Johnny Knoxville and his band of pranksters in Jackass: Best and Last. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:

Supergirl Box Office Prediction
Jackass: Best and Last Box Office Prediction

The rosiest estimates have Supergirl approaching $60 million. Even if that occurs, it’s probably not enough to catch Toy Story 5 which should ease in the 50 percent range. I’m taking the under with Supergirl and projecting mid 40s. That would leave it well behind in the runner-up position.

Jackass: Best and Last should the first of the five big screen franchise entries to open under $20 million. My low teens forecast would mean a third place showing as the series may be running out of steam with the alleged final edition.

Holdovers Obsession and Disclosure Day may flip spots as the former should have a smaller decline.

Here’s how I see the top 5 shaking out:

1. Toy Story 5

Predicted Gross: $80.2 million

2. Supergirl

Predicted Gross: $44.5 million

3. Jackass: Best and Last

Predicted Gross: $12.3 million

4. Obsession

Predicted Gross: $9 million

5. Disclosure Day

Predicted Gross: $8.7 million

Box Office Results (June 19-21)

Toy Story 5 had the second best Disney/Pixar sequel opening in history. That also means it had the second strongest beginning for any animated feature behind Incredibles 2. The return of Woody and Buzz kicked off in line with expectations at $159.6 million. I was a bit more generous with $166.8 million, but this is still a massively pleasing result for the Mouse House.

Steven Spielberg’s Disclosure Day, after a premiere at the bottom end of its anticipated range, fell a troubling 60% in its sophomore outing to $17.7 million. I figured it would hold a bit better at $21.5 million. That B Cinemascore grade is evidenced by the performance.

Obsession made $13.3 million in third as it’s finally starting to drop from week to week. I had it at $15.2 million and the horror phenomenon has hauled in $215 million after six weeks.

A24 smash Backrooms was fourth with $7.1 million (I said $6.6 million) for a four-week tally of $175 million. The news wasn’t good for A24 everywhere (more on that in a second).

Scary Movie rounded out the top five with $6.3 million, on target with my $6.1 million call. The spoof sequel is near nine digits with $97 million in three weeks.

That aforementioned A24 bad news came from The Death of Robin Hood with Hugh Jackman. With middling reviews and non-existent buzz, it bombed in 8th place with $2.8 million compared to my $3.8 million prediction.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Oscar Predictions: Toy Story 5

Disney/Pixar’s Toy Story franchise has had a storied history at the Oscars and it would be more impressive had the Best Animated Feature category existed prior to 2001. The original from 1995 and its 1999 sequel would have been near certainties for that statue (even with part two facing serious competition from The Iron Giant, South Park: Bigger, Longer & Uncut, and Princess Mononoke). In 2010, Toy Story 3 not only won the animated race, but was up for Best Picture. Nine years later, the fourth feature didn’t nab a BP slot but did take the animation prize.

That brings us to Toy Story 5, out this weekend. Andrew Stanton, who’s already taken Best Animated Feature twice for Finding Nemo and Wall-E, finally takes over directorial duties after co-creating the series over 30 years ago. Tom Hanks and Tim Allen are back voicing the iconic characters of Woody and Buzz along with returnees Joan Cusack, Tony Hale, John Ratzenberger, Wallace Shawn, Blake Clark, Annie Potts, Bonnie Hunt, Melissa Villaseñor, Kristen Schaal, Keanu Reeves, and Ally Maki. Newcomers behind the mic include Greta Lee, Conan O’Brien, Craig Robinson, Ernie Hudson, Bad Bunny, and Alan Cumming.

Unsurprisingly, reviews for Toy Story 5 are just fine… with a caveat. While the Rotten Tomatoes meter is 94%, Metacritic is at 74. That’s easily the lowest of the quintet with second lowest being #4 at 84. For that matter, that RT score is the “lowest” as well with the next being the fourth again at 97%.

Why is this important? I think it tells us that, like #4, a Best Picture nomination isn’t happening. Nor is this in the mix for Adapted Screenplay where #3 competed. It also opens the door to #5 not being a shoo-in to win Animated Feature though we’ll see what competition arises in the months to come. Recent examples of Mouse House sequels not taking that trophy are Incredibles 2, Inside Out 2 and Zootopia 2.

Every previous Toy Story flick has seen an Original Song nominated with Randy Newman’s “We Belong Together” victorious for #3. It’s hard to imagine Taylor Swift’s “I Knew It, I Knew You” not getting one of the five spots. It’s already a radio mainstay and would mark the pop star’s first Oscar nod. This is a golden opportunity for the Academy to have her perform at the 99th ceremony. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

June 19-21 Box Office Predictions

Blogger’s Update (06/17): It is being reported that The Death of Robin Hood is only hitting around 1000 screens so I revising my estimate down from $8 million to a mere $3.8 million. That would put it in outside of the top 5

Toy Story 5 should dominate the upcoming weekend as the franchise enters its fourth decade of existence. The other premiere is Michael Sarnoski’s The Death of Robin Hood with Hugh Jackman in the title role. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:

Toy Story 5 Box Office Prediction
The Death of Robin Hood Box Office Prediction

In order to set the series record for highest opening, Disney/Pixar’s fifth round of Woody and Buzz needs to top the $120 million earned by part 4 in 2019. I’ve got it doing that with plenty of room to spare. My prediction also gives it 2026’s largest out of the gate haul currently held by The Super Mario Galaxy Movie with $131 million.

I’m not expecting much from Robin Hood and my fourth place forecast could decrease if the screen count is lower than the 2000-2500 venues I’m assuming. The A24 title seemingly hasn’t picked up much buzz though it’ll hope for some Father’s Day traffic.

Disclosure Day from Steven Spielberg got off to a decent if unspectacular beginning (more on that below). The sci-fi adventure hopes for a somewhat meager sophomore frame drop though I’ve got it falling in the low to mid 50s.

Obsession should be third while holdovers Scary Movie and Backrooms should duke it out for fifth place with the latter perhaps having a slight edge.

Here’s how I see the top 6 shaking out:

1. Toy Story 5

Predicted Gross: $166.8 million

2. Disclosure Day

Predicted Gross: $21.5 million

3. Obsession

Predicted Gross: $15.2 million

4. Backrooms

Predicted Gross: $6.6 million

5. Scary Movie

Predicted Gross: $6.1 million

Box Office Results (June 12-14)

In short, everything made less than I projected over the weekend. In more detail, Disclosure Day kicked off in the middle of its anticipated range with $44.5 million. I thought Spielberg’s return to the alien genre would fare better at $51.6 million. The B Cinemascore grade, not encouraging for a blockbuster, suggests a heftier drop than I might’ve originally thought could be coming.

Obsession, in its fifth frame, at last saw it grosses go down. That said, the 25% decline to $19 million gave the horror smash (and now Oscar contender in my view) a total of $188 million thus far.

Scary Movie had a massive 74% fall in weekend #2 with $14.2 million compared to my far more generous $22 million take. The sixth edition in the spoof series sits at $84 million.

Backrooms was fourth with $11.5 million, just under my $12.4 million call. This scary movie has amassed $160 million after three weeks.

Finally, Masters of the Universe solidified placement as a summer flop with a 70% plummet in its sophomore outing with $8.9 million. Once again, my benefit doubting forecast of $13.5 million proved false. The two-week tally is a weak $46 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Toy Story 5 Box Office Prediction

30 plus years after kicking off the Pixar craze for parent company Disney, Woody and Buzz are back in theaters with Toy Story 5 on June 19th. The beloved franchise arrives seven years after the fourth entry which set a series best in terms of domestic earnings at $434 million. Andrew Stanton, maker of Pixar smashes Finding Nemo and Wall-E, directs his first Toy tale (he had screenwriter or story credit on the previous ones). Tom Hanks and Tim Allen are back voicing their iconic characters as are Joan Cusack, Tony Hale, John Ratzenberger, Wallace Shawn, Blake Clark, Annie Potts, Bonnie Hunt, Melissa Villaseñor, Kristen Schaal, Keanu Reeves, and Ally Maki. Newcomers behind the mic include Greta Lee, Conan O’Brien, Craig Robinson, Bad Bunny, Ernie Hudson, and Alan Cumming.

Each Story since 1995 has topped the grosses of its predecessor (non adjusted for inflation). Toy Story 4 also had the largest opening of the quartet at $120 million (the third did $110 million). Early word-of-mouth suggests this is an improvement over part 4. That should mean this has no trouble setting a new series debut record. It it doesn’t, that would be considered a letdown.

I think the floor is $130 million. While not out of the question that this could surpass it, Pixar’s all-time largest premiere held by Incredibles 2 at $182 million should stay intact. Toy Story 5 should, however, challenge Inside Out 2 at #2 and its $154 million. I’ll say it gets beyond that for the highest 2026 start, besting The Super Mario Galaxy Movie‘s $131 million.

Toy Story 5 opening weekend prediction: $166.8 million

For my The Death of Robin Hood prediction, click here:

The Death of Robin Hood Box Office Prediction

June 5-7 Box Office Predictions

**Blogger’s Update (06/03): A day after posting my top 5 predictions, we are making it a top 6. The Amazing Digital Circus: The Last Act wasn’t really on my radar screen. However, the combination of episodes for the adult web animated series opens Thursday and is expected to make some noise. My $13.1 million Friday to Sunday guesstimate gives it the 5 spot, knocking The Mandalorian to sixth.

While scary movies ruled the charts in the remarkable weekend that just happened, the franchise that spoofs them returns to theaters for the first time in 13 years and should place #1. In addition to Scary Movie, He-Man is back in multiplexes after nearly 40 years offscreen with Masters of the Universe. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:

Scary Movie Box Office Prediction
Masters of the Universe Box Office Prediction

Scary Movie looks to be arriving at an opportune time as horror flicks are dominating and posting previously unthought of grosses via Backrooms and Obsession. The sixth entry in the series began in 2000, it could absolutely break the franchise opening record held by Scary Movie 3 at $48 million. I’ve got it just under in what should be an uncomplicated path to the top slot.

The race for #2 is more open. Adapting the toy line and Saturday morning cartoon that began over 40 years ago (and led to a panned Dolph Lundgren live-action version in 1987), Masters needs family audiences to turn out as teens and adults will be preoccupied with Scary Movie and scary movies. My projection of just under $30 million would be considered a letdown. If Masters does my estimated figure, it opens the door for Backrooms to be second if it drops in the 60% range. That’s what I’m saying will happen in a photo finish.

Then there’s Obsession which has built its earnings from the first week to the second to the third. As mentioned before, that’s practically unheard of for any wide release movie (let alone a horror one). I have it finally easing in the mid teens in week #4, but we’re in uncharted territory here so who knows?

After a troubling second outing, The Mandalorian and Grogu should round out the top five. Finally, Power Ballad with Paul Rudd and Nick Jonas expands nationwide. I didn’t do an individual post for it. I’ll put its wide release at $4.2 million and that’s well outside the top five.

Here’s how I have it shaking out:

1. Scary Movie

Predicted Gross: $47.5 million

2. Backrooms

Predicted Gross: $30.6 million

3. Masters of the Universe

Predicted Gross: $29.8 million

4. Obsession

Predicted Gross: $23.4 million

5. The Amazing Digital Circus: The Last Act

Predicted Gross: $13.1 million

6. The Mandalorian and Grogu

Predicted Gross: $11 million

Box Office Results (May 29-31)

Before Backrooms came out, A24’s largest opening weekend belonged to Civil War at $25 million. I knew Backrooms would blast past that record and predicted that it would more than double that figure at $57 million. I couldn’t have been more wrong. Based on the hit found footage web series, it more than tripled A24’s previous best at $81.4 million. To say the least, young viewers turned out in droves and a new franchise is undoubtedly born.

Obsession stayed in second and increased its crowd by 14% at $27.3 million, falling just below my $29.5 million prediction. The phenomenon now has $105 million in the bank after three weeks.

A week after experiencing the worst Star Wars start in the Disney era, The Mandalorian and Grogu had the heftiest percentage drop of them all. Falling 70%, it made $24.4 million compared to my $25.6 million call. The less than anticipated total is $136 million.

Michael was fourth with $11.8 million (I said $13 million) as the musical biopic has amassed $340 million after six weeks.

Nate Bargatze is a bestselling stand-up, but it didn’t translate to box office bucks in his first starring vehicle The Breadwinner. It sputtered in fifth with only $7.3 million. I was more generous at $12.1 million.

Finally, Pressure opened in seventh with $5.8 million. The well-reviewed World War II drama got beyond my $4.9 million estimate with the fifth highest per theater average in the top 10.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

May 29-31 Box Office Predictions

Blogger’s Update (05/28): Some revisions as weekday numbers for Obsession now have me thinking it will gain from its sophomore frame and place second with Mandalorian now dipping to third. Additionally, my projection for Backrooms continues to rise and I’m now putting it at $57 million, up from $54 million.

Horror flick Backrooms looks to open at the front of the charts while Nate Bargatze’s comedy The Breadwinner and World War II drama Pressure with Andrew Scott and Brendan Fraser seek impressive earnings. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the trio of newcomers here:

Backrooms Box Office Prediction
The Breadwinner Box Office Prediction
Pressure Box Office Prediction

Based on a popular YouTube web series, Backrooms from Kane Parsons has a wide range of possibility. A worst case scenario could put it in second place behind the second frame of The Mandalorian and Grogu. There’s also the potential for an overperformance topping approaching $60 million. My mid 50s projection puts it in first with ease.

That’s because The Mandalorian got off to a so-so start (more on that below) and I suspect it’s headed for a precipitous fall in the high 60s.

Obsession, after a remarkable sophomore weekend hold, may only slide slightly for a third place showing. That could leave The Breadwinner well behind in fourth in the low teens though Bargatze’s fanbase may turn out enough for a better than anticipated premiere. Comedies are tricky. It might also struggle to make $10 million.

As for Pressure, with a reported theater count of around 1800, my $4.9 million forecast would put it outside of the top five.

Here’s how I have that high five shaking out:

1. Backrooms

Predicted Gross: $57 million

2. Obsession

Predicted Gross: $29.5 million

3. The Mandalorian and Grogu

Predicted Gross: $25.6 million

4. Michael

Predicted Gross: $13 million

5. The Breadwinner

Predicted Gross: $12.1 million

Box Office Results (May 22-25)

The Mandalorian and Grogu never appeared to have the excitement that greets Star Wars series entries and the numbers proved that over Memorial Day weekend. The continuation of the Disney+ show landed with the lowest opening of any franchise pic since the Mouse House took over distribution beginning in 2015 with Star Wars: The Force Awakens. Opening slightly under 2018’s Solo: A Star Wars Story, the Friday to Sunday three-day take was $81.6 million, just over my $80.3 million prediction. When counting Monday, it grew to $98 million and that managed to top my $94.7 million take. While those grosses would be pleasing for most summer titles, that’s simply not the case here.

Obsession was arguably a bigger story this weekend as it grew 39% over its first frame. This is pretty much unheard of for any picture and especially in the horror genre. The Friday to Sunday earnings of $23.9 million and $31.9 million over the four-day easily surpassed my respective projections of $17.5 million and $22.9 million and the two-week total rose to $62 million.

Michael went from to 1st to 3rd with $20.6 million (three-day) and $27.1 million (four-day), ahead of my $18.8 million and $23.9 million guesstimates. The music biopic has now amassed $321 million in five weeks.

The Devil Wears Prada 2 was fourth with $12.7 million over the traditional weekend and $16.2 million with Monday added. The comedy sequel took in more than my $9.7 million and $12.6 million estimates and it has $199 million in the bank after four weeks,.

The Sheep Detectives held impressively in fifth with $9.2 million from Friday to Sunday (I said $7 million) and $12.3 million counting Monday (I went with $8.9 million). The three-week gross is $46 million for the summer sleeper.

Scary movie Passenger managed to outdo my predictions with $8.7 million (Fri-Sun) and $10.3 million (Fri-Mon). While I went lower respectively with $6.3 million and $7.3 million, the 6th place newcomer was overshadowed by Obsession. Unlike that movie, a hefty sophomore drop is probably coming.

Mortal Kombat II was seventh with $6 million over the three-day. My guess? $6 million! Its $7.6 million four-day slightly edged my $7.2 million call and the three-week total is $74 million.

Finally, absurdist comedy I Love Boosters from Boots Riley kicked off in 8th with $3.7 million from Friday to Sunday. My guess? $3.7 million! Like Kombat, the $4.7 million four-day barely exceeded my $4.5 million prediction.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Oscar Predictions: The Mandalorian and Grogu

2008’s animated Star Wars: The Clone Wars is the only LucasFilm entry in nearly 50 years that failed to grab at least one Academy Award mention. The other 11 movies – Episodes I-IX, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story, and Solo: A Star Wars Story – have a combined 37 nominations. The Mandalorian and the Grogu could be the second title not to register with Oscar voters.

A continuation of the Disney Plus series, Jon Favreau directs with Pedro Pascal and Sigourney Weaver headlining and Jeremy Allen White providing voiceover work. A number of reviews are claiming it’s an unimpressive feature in the famed franchise with 61% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 54 Metacritic. That’s lower than the numbers that greeted Solo in 2018. It received a sole nomination for Visual Effects. That category and Ludwig Göransson’s score might be Grogu‘s only shots at inclusion, but it is entirely possible it won’t be included in ballots at all. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Swapped

Animated fantasy Swapped is streaming on Netflix today from Nathan Greno, best known for co-directing Disney’s Tangled. The body swap tale features Michael B. Jordan in a voiceover role and this is notably his first project since last year’s Oscar juggernaut Sinners and its record 16 nominations (including Jordan’s Best Actor victory). Other thespians behind the mic include Juno Temple, Tracy Morgan, Cedric the Entertainer, and Justina Machado.

The review embargo lifted on the same day of release. While some critics are praising the animation itself, write-ups aren’t overly wowed with the final results. Rotten Tomatoes is at 60% with 52 on Metacritic. Those numbers indicate the combined number of Academy mentions for Sinners and Swapped will be 16 as I don’t see this is a threat in Best Animated Feature. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: The Super Mario Galaxy Movie

The Super Mario Galaxy Movie is ready to launch in theaters over Easter weekend and expected to dominate the charts. The sequel to 2023’s box office juggernaut The Super Mario Bros. Movie, Aaron Horvath and Michael Jelenic are back directing Illumination Entertainment’s comedic adventure based on the Nintendo IP. Voiceover contributions come from Chris Pratt, Anya Taylor-Joy, Charlie Day, Jack Black, Keegan-Michael Key, Benny Safdie, Donald Glover, Brie Larson, and Glen Powell.

While audiences gobbled up the 2023 offering and are likely to do the same here, critics were mostly lukewarm. The original rated at 59% on Rotten Tomatoes with a 46 Metacritic. Despite some buzz for its song “Peaches”, Mario wasn’t represented in Original Song or in the Animated Feature category at the 96th Academy Awards.

Reviews are on the downslide for the follow-up with a 44% RT and 37 Meta. We’ve already seen one animated effort (Disney/Pixar’s Hoppers) that probably has a reserved slot in the Animated Feature quintet at the 99th ceremony. That’s not the case with Galaxy. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

April 3-5 Box Office Predictions

The Super Mario Galaxy Movie should play to domestic and worldwide domination over the Easter holiday as April dawns. Illumination Entertainment’s animated sequel debuts alongside Zendaya and Robert Pattinson in The Drama. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newbies here:

The Super Mario Galaxy Movie Box Office Prediction
The Drama Box Office Prediction

Three Easters back, The Super Mario Bros. Movie blew past expectations with nearly $150 million from Friday to Sunday and over $200 million when counting Wednesday and Thursday. Galaxy is smartly following the same release pattern. While I don’t think the results will be quite as much, it should surpass Project Hail Mary as the year’s largest premiere.

Speaking of Mary, there’s something about its second weekend that was remarkable (more on that below). The sci-fi tale with Ryan Gosling should have no trouble being strong in the runner-up position after two weeks on top.

As for The Drama, it’s more of a question mark. It looks to draw upon the star appeal of its young leads. I have it earning a tad more than Zendaya’s Challengers from 2024 in the mid teens for a third place showing.

Holdovers Hoppers and Reminders of Him should round out the top five and here’s how I have it rolling out:

1. The Super Mario Galaxy Movie

Predicted Gross: $126.5 million (Friday to Sunday); $171.2 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

2. Project Hail Mary

Predicted Gross: $35.2 million

3. The Drama

Predicted Gross: $16.7 million

4. Hoppers

Predicted Gross: $8 million

5. Reminders of Him

Predicted Gross: $2.9 million

Box Office Results (March 27-29)

Amazon MGM had a banner sophomore frame with Project Hail Mary. After launching to $80 million, the acclaimed adaptation of Andy Weir’s novel declined a meager 33% to $54 million for a two-week haul of $163 million. Eclipsing my $44.8 million prediction, a domestic end run of over $300 million appears to be happening as the crowd favorite builds Oscar steam.

Hoppers remained in second with $12.1 million, right in line with my $12 million call. Disney/Pixar’s original story has risen to $138 million after four weeks.

Comedic horror entry They Will Kill You was DOA in its unveiling. With $4.9 million in third, the Warner Bros release failed to hit my $6.3 million forecast. Look for it to fade fast.

Reminders of Him was fourth with $4.7 million, on target with my $4.3 million estimate. The romantic drama has made a respectable $41 million after three weeks.

Dhurandhar: The Revenge was right behind in fifth with $4.6 million and I incorrectly had it outside of the high five. The total is $22 million after two weeks.

Also in its second outing, Ready or Not 2: Here I Come fell 54% to $4.1 million (I said $4.2 million). The underwhelming sequel sits at $16 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…