The Cannes Film Festival, originally scheduled for May in the French Riviera, was canceled this year due to the COVID-19 pandemic. However, an announcement today confirmed that the long running fest will exist in some form. And like everything in 2020… it’s a little confusing. A lineup announcement of 56 pictures was put out as being in the Cannes fold. However, these titles will premiere at various other events scheduled later in the year such as the Toronto and Telluride festivals, among others.
Awards watchers know that Cannes is a fertile breeding ground for Oscar hopefuls. Just last year, Bong Joon-Ho’s Parasite won top Cannes prize the Palme d’or and eventually won Best Picture at the Academy Awards. Some other titles (among many) that premiered at Cannes and got Oscar attention include Apocalypse Now, The Piano, Pulp Fiction, and The Pianist.
So what are some significant 2020 Cannes contenders that could vie for Oscar gold? I’ll give you a quintet and we start with Wes Anderson’s The French Dispatch. The latest effort from the acclaimed filmmaker is his live-action follow-up to 2014’s The Grand Budapest Hotel which nabbed a leading nine nominations at that year’s Oscars. The cast is filled with familiar faces and many Anderson regulars including Benicio del Toro, Adrien Brody, Tilda Swinton, Frances McDormand, Timothee Chalamet, Bill Murray, Owen Wilson, Edward Norton, Saoirse Ronan, Willem Dafoe, and Anjelica Huston. It is obviously high on the list for potential players throughout awards season.
Ronan also costars in Ammonite, a period drama from director Francis Lee. Her costar is Kate Winslet and between the two of them they have 11 Academy nominations. Expect plenty of chatter as to their viability in the performance races.
Steve McQueen is premiering not one, but two pictures with the Cannes label – Lovers Rock and Mangrove. The director saw his 2013 pic 12 Years a Slave awarded Best Picture. Both of his new titles focus on race relations in the United Kingdom.
Finally, Pixar is in the mix with Soul. Originally scheduled for summer, it was pushed back to November and is rightfully seen as a top tier contender in the Animated Feature derby. Featuring the voices of Jamie Foxx and Tina Fey, Soul is directed by Pete Docter. He’s responsible for two of the studio’s most acclaimed entries and Oscar winners – 2009’s Up and 2015’s Inside Out.
I would suspect that the 51 other Cannes selections could wind up in the mix as well (especially in the International Feature Film race). Time will tell, but the Cannes label will carry on in 2020 (albeit under unforeseen and unique circumstances).
Another major Oscar precursor holds their ceremony this evening with the 26th Annual Screen Actors Guild (SAG) Awards. This particular show has definitely served as a massive indicator where the Academy might go with the acting winners. As for Best Picture, not so much.
So let’s get into it as I make my projections for what will happen tonight!
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role
The Nominees: Cynthia Erivo (Harriet), Scarlett Johansson (Marriage Story), Lupita Nyong’o (Us), Charlize Theron (Bombshell), Renee Zellweger (Judy)
Analysis: Nyong’o is the odd one out here as she didn’t nab an Oscar nomination. A win here by Johansson and Theron (both are possible) could set up a narrative as being Zellweger’s legit competition. Over the past decade, the SAG and Oscar winner have matched seven out of nine times. The outliers include last year when Glenn Close took the SAG for The Wife and Olivia Colman won the Academy Award for The Favourite. Tonight could also solidify Zellweger’s work as Judy Garland in the biopic. My suspicion is that it happens.
PREDICTED WINNER: RENEE ZELLWEGER
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role
The Nominees: Christian Bale (Ford v Ferrari), Leonardo DiCaprio (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood), Adam Driver (Marriage Story), Taron Egerton (Rocketman), Joaquin Phoenix (Joker)
Analysis: A Best Actor derby where ten performers were vying for five spots means 2 men here didn’t make the Oscar cut: Bale and Egerton. Therefore, I see this as a three person showdown between DiCaprio, Driver, and Phoenix. The Oscar/SAG linkage here is significant as eight of the last nine victors went on to take the Academy Award. 2016 was the only exception when Denzel Washington got the SAG for Fences and Casey Affleck was the Oscar recipient for Manchester by the Sea.
Driver could be the larger threat, but this season is shaping up to be a sweep for Phoenix. That’s where the smart money is tonight.
PREDICTED WINNER: JOAQUIN PHOENIX
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
The Nominees: Jamie Foxx (Just Mercy), Tom Hanks (A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood), Al Pacino (The Irishman), Joe Pesci (The Irishman), Brad Pitt (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)
Analysis: There is a 7 for 9 SAG/Oscar match in this category this decade. Foxx didn’t get the Academy attention. Hanks is beloved, but his movie has underwhelmed elsewhere. Pacino and Pesci should split votes. And the narrative continues for Pitt to have a terrific awards season.
PREDICTED WINNER: BRAD PITT
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role
The Nominees: Laura Dern (Marriage Story), Scarlett Johansson (Jojo Rabbit), Nicole Kidman (Bombshell), Jennifer Lopez (Hustlers), Margot Robbie (Bombshell)
Analysis: During the 2010s, there was an 8 for 8 SAG/Oscar match here from 2010-2017. Yet 2018 was the exception and a rather enormous one. Emily Blunt’s victory last year for A Quiet Place was a stunner since she had no Oscar nod. And the Academy’s winner (Regina King for If Beale Street Could Talk) didn’t get a SAG nod.
Could this set up a situation where Lopez, snubbed by the Academy, could walk to the podium tonight? I’m tempted to make that upset pick. However, Dern is unquestionably the favorite and I just can’t bet against her.
PREDICTED WINNER: LAURA DERN
Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture
Nominees: Bombshell, The Irishman, Jojo Rabbit, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Parasite
Analysis: Now here is where it gets interesting! Unlike the individual acting races, there isn’t as much of a history with this category matching up with Oscar’s Best Picture. This decade it’s happened four out of nine times. For the 21st century, it’s nine out of nineteen times.
You don’t see 1917 listed here and with its Golden Globe Best Drama and PGA victories, it’s the soft front runner for Oscar. An omission here doesn’t mean much as the last two Academy BP recipients (The Shape of Water, Green Book) missed here. Other than Bombshell, the nominees here are all nominated for Best Picture. Any of them winning tonight could position that film as the main competitor to 1917. That said, I don’t discount Bombshell taking the prize this evening as it received the greatest number of SAG nods.
Parasite is the only nominee where none of its individual performers were nominated. You could argue that the voters simply saved for their votes for this race. Jojo has its hardcore fans. The Irishman boasts a trio of acting legends.
Ultimately, I’m leaning toward the sprawling cast of Hollywood. Yet I’ll freely admit that this category seems wide open.
PREDICTED WINNER: ONCE UPON A TIME IN HOLLYWOOD
And there you have it! I’ll have a post up recounting how I did and what it means for the Oscar race soon enough…
After months and months of speculation, dozens of blog posts, and constant shifting around, these are my final predictions for the 2019 Oscars. There’s been thousands of words written about the races so I’ll keep it simple here.
The nominations are out Monday. I’m picking nine pictures to get recognition (there can be anywhere from 5 to 10 and 8-9 is usually the sweet spot). For each category, I’m also naming an alternate and second alternate.
Lastly, you can be sure come Monday that I’ll have a recap up with reaction and my results. Here we go folks!
Best Picture
1917
Ford v Ferrari
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Little Women
Marriage Story
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Parasite
ALTERNATE – The Farewell
ALTERNATE 2 – Knives Out
Best Director
Greta Gerwig, Little Women
Bong Joon-Ho, Parasite
Sam Mendes, 1917
Martin Scorsese, The Irishman
Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
ALTERNATE – Todd Phillips, Joker
ALTERNATE 2 – Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story
Best Actress
Cynthia Erivo, Harriet
Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story
Saoirse Ronan, Little Women
Charlize Theron, Bombshell
Renee Zellweger, Judy
ALTERNATE – Awkwafina, The Farewell
ALTERNATE 2 – Lupita Nyong’o, Us
Best Actor
Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory
Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Adam Driver, Marriage Story
Taron Egerton, Rocketman
Joaquin Phoenix, Joker
ALTERNATE – Christian Bale, Ford v Ferrari
ALTERNATE 2 – Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes
Best Supporting Actress
Laura Dern, Marriage Story
Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit
Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers
Florence Pugh, Little Women
Margot Robbie, Bombshell
ALTERNATE – Zhao Shuzhen, The Farewell
ALTERNATE 2 – Nicole Kidman, Bombshell
Best Supporting Actor
Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes
Al Pacino, The Irishman
Joe Pesci, The Irishman
Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
ALTERNATE – Song Kang-Ho, Parasite
ALTERNATE 2 – Jamie Foxx, Just Mercy
Best Adapted Screenplay
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Little Women
The Two Popes
ALTERNATE – A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
ALTERNATE 2 – Hustlers
Best Original Screenplay
The Farewell
Knives Out
Marriage Story
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Parasite
ALTERNATE – 1917
ALTERNATE 2 – Uncut Gems
Best International Feature Film
Atlantics
Les Miserables
Pain and Glory
Parasite
Those Who Remained
ALTERNATE – Beanpole
ALTERNATE 2 – Honeyland
Best Animated Feature
Frozen II
How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
I Lost My Body
Missing Link
Toy Story 4
ALTERNATE – Klaus
ALTERNATE 2 – Abominable
Best Documentary Feature
American Factory
Apollo 11
For Sama
Honeyland
One Child Nation
ALTERNATE – Midnight Family
ALTERNATE 2 – Maiden
Best Cinematography
1917
Ford v Ferrari
The Irishman
Joker
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
ALTERNATE – The Lighthouse
ALTERNATE 2 – Portrait of a Lady on Fire
Best Costume Design
Dolemite Is My Name
Jojo Rabbit
Little Women
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Rocketman
ALTERNATE – Downton Abbey
ALTERNATE 2 – The Irishman
Best Film Editing
Ford v Ferrari
The Irishman
Joker
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Parasite
ALTERNATE – 1917
ALTERNATE 2 – Marriage Story
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Bombshell
Joker
Judy
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Rocketman
ALTERNATE – Maleficent: Mistress of Evil
ALTERNATE 2 – Dolemite Is My Name
Best Production Design
1917
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Little Women
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
ALTERNATE – Parasite
ALTERNATE 2 – Joker
Best Original Score
1917
Joker
Little Women
Marriage Story
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
ALTERNATE – Ford v Ferrari
ALTERNATE 2 – Jojo Rabbit
Best Original Song
“Glasgow” from Wild Rose
“(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again” from Rocketman
“Into the Unknown” from Frozen II
“Spirit” from The Lion King
“Stand Up” from Harriet
ALTERNATE – “I’m Standing with You” from Breakthrough
ALTERNATE 2 – “A Glass of Soju” from Parasite
Best Sound Editing
1917
Avengers: Endgame
Ford v Ferrari
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
ALTERNATE – Joker
ALTERNATE 2 – Rocketman
Best Sound Mixing
1917
Ford v Ferrari
Joker
Rocketman
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
ALTERNATE – Avengers: Endgame
ALTERNATE 2 – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Best Visual Effects
1917
Avengers: Endgame
The Irishman
The Lion King
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
ALTERNATE – Alita: Battle Angel
ALTERNATE 2 – Gemini Man
And that means my final tally for pictures getting the following number of nominations goes like this:
11 Nominations
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
9 Nominations
The Irishman
8 Nominations
1917, Joker, Little Women
6 Nominations
Marriage Story
5 Nominations
Ford v Ferrari, Jojo Rabbit, Parasite, Rocketman
4 Nominations
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
3 Nominations
Bombshell
2 Nominations
Avengers: Endgame, Frozen II, Harriet, Judy, The Lion King, Pain and Glory, The Two Popes
1 Nomination
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, American Factory Apollo 11, Atlantics, Dolemite Is My Name, The Farewell, For Sama, Honeyland, How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World, Hustlers, I Lost My Body, Knives Out, Les Miserables, Missing Link, One Child Nation, Those Who Remained, Toy Story 4, Wild Rose
There are years when the Golden Globes don’t seem to have much of an impact on my Oscar predictions. That could still hold true at the end of the day, but last night’s ceremony did so and that especially applies to the Best Actor derby and my numeric rankings in general with other top races. Let us count the ways…
The surprising wins for 1917 as Best Drama and Sam Mendes as its director is a real story. The timing could not be more perfect as the World War I action drama opens wide this weekend. In Picture, it rises from 5th to 4th. For Mendes, he goes from 4th to 3rd and that’s at the expense of Martin Scorsese.
Joaquin Phoenix hits the #1 slot in the ultra competitive Best Actor competition over Adam Driver, who’s been first for many weeks. Perhaps more significantly, Taron Egerton’s victory over Leonardo DiCaprio and Eddie Murphy in the Musical/Comedy race at the Globes places in my predicted five for the first time (he goes from 10th to 5th!). I’ve also put Antonio Banderas back in and that means Robert De Niro and Jonathan Pryce are on the outside looking in.
In Original Screenplay, Quentin Tarantino vaults to #1 over Noah Baumbach.
And an important programming note… this is the last time you will see my weekly predictions for 2019 in this manner. With nominations out a week from today, I will have a FINAL predictions post up this weekend (likely Friday or perhaps Saturday). As of this moment, here’s how I have it all shaking out!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Parasite (PR: 3)
3. The Irishman (PR: 2)
4. 1917 (PR: 5)
5. Marriage Story (PR: 4)
6. Joker (PR: 7)
7. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 6)
8. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 8)
9. Little Women (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
10. The Farewell (PR: 12)
11. Bombshell (PR: 11)
12. The Two Popes (PR: 10)
13. Knives Out (PR: 14)
14. Uncut Gems (PR: 15)
15. Pain and Glory (PR: 13)
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Bong Joon-Ho, Parasite (PR: 1)
2. Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)
3. Sam Mendes, 1917 (PR: 4)
4. Martin Scorsese, The Irishman (PR: 3)
5. Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Todd Phillips, Joker (PR: 6)
7. Greta Gerwig, Little Women (PR: 9)
8. James Mangold, Ford v Ferrari (PR: 7)
9. Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit (PR: 8)
10. Pedro Almodovar, Pain and Glory (PR: 10)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker (PR: 2)
2. Adam Driver, Marriage Story (PR: 1)
3. Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 3)
4. Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory (PR: 6)
5. Taron Egerton, Rocketman (PR: 10)
Other Possibilities:
6. Robert De Niro, The Irishman (PR: 4)
7. Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes (PR: 5)
8. Christian Bale, Ford v Ferrari (PR: 7)
9. Adam Sandler, Uncut Gems (PR: 9)
10. Eddie Murphy, Dolemite Is My Name (PR: 8)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Renee Zellweger, Judy (PR: 1)
2. Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story (PR: 2)
3. Charlize Theron, Bombshell (PR: 3)
4. Cynthia Erivo, Harriet (PR: 4)
5. Saoirse Ronan, Little Women (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Awkwafina, The Farewell (PR: 6)
7. Lupita Nyong’o, Us (PR: 7)
8. Mary Kay Place, Diane (PR: 10)
9. Alfre Woodard, Clemency (PR: 8)
10. Ana de Armas, Knives Out (PR: 9)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)
2. Al Pacino, The Irishman (PR: 2)
3. Joe Pesci, The Irishman (PR: 3)
4. Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 4)
5. Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Song Kang-Ho, Parasite (PR: 7)
7. Jamie Foxx, Just Mercy (PR: 6)
8. Willem Dafoe, The Lighthouse (PR: 8)
9. Alan Alda, Marriage Story (PR: 10)
10. Shia LaBeouf, Honey Boy (PR: 9)
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Laura Dern, Marriage Story (PR: 1)
2. Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers (PR: 2)
3. Margot Robbie, Bombshell (PR: 3)
4. Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit (PR: 4)
5. Florence Pugh, Little Women (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nicole Kidman, Bombshell (PR: 6)
7. Shuzhen Zhao, The Farewell (PR: 7)
8. Annette Bening, The Report (PR: 8)
9. Kathy Bates, Richard Jewell (PR: 9)
10. Thomasin McKenzie, Jojo Rabbit (PR: 10)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Irishman (PR: 1)
2. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 2)
3. Little Women (PR: 3)
4. Joker (PR: 5)
5. The Two Popes (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 6)
7. Hustlers (PR: 7)
8. Just Mercy (PR: 8)
9. Dark Waters (PR: 10)
10. Richard Jewell (PR: 9)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)
2. Marriage Story (PR: 1)
3. Parasite (PR: 3)
4. The Farewell (PR: 4)
5. Knives Out (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. 1917 (PR: 7)
7. Uncut Gems (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Pain and Glory (PR: 6)
9. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 8)
10. Bombshell (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Dolemite Is My Name
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Parasite (PR: 1)
2. Pain and Glory (PR: 2)
3. Les Miserables (PR: 3)
4. Corpus Christi (PR: 6)
5. Atlantics (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Beanpole (PR: 7)
7. Those Who Remained (PR: 9)
8. The Painted Bird (PR: 5)
9. Honeyland (PR: 8)
10. Truth and Justice (PR: 10)
Best Animated Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Toy Story 4 (PR: 1)
2. Frozen II (PR: 2)
3. How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World (PR: 3)
4. I Lost My Body (PR: 4)
5. Missing Link (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Funan (PR: 9)
7. Klaus (PR: 6)
8. Weathering with You (PR: 8)
9. Abominable (PR: 7)
10. Bunuel in the Labyrinth of the Turtles (PR: 10)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. American Factory (PR: 1)
2. For Sama (PR: 3)
3. Apollo 11 (PR: 2)
4. One Child Nation (PR: 4)
5. Honeyland (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Cave (PR: 6)
7. Midnight Family (PR: 9)
8. Maiden (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The Biggest Little Farm (PR: 7)
10. The Edge of Democracy (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Knock Down the House
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. 1917 (PR: 1)
2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)
3. Joker (PR: 4)
4. The Irishman (PR: 3)
5. Portrait of a Lady on Fire (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 7)
7. The Lighthouse (PR: 6)
8. Parasite (PR: 5)
9. Little Women (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Marriage Story (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
A Hidden Life
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)
2. Little Women (PR: 2)
3. Dolemite Is My Name (PR: 3)
4. Rocketman (PR: 4)
5. Downton Abbey (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Irishman (PR: 7)
7. Joker (PR: 8)
8. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 9)
9. Judy (PR: 6)
10. The Aeronauts (PR: 10)
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 1)
2. The Irishman (PR: 2)
3. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 3)
4. Marriage Story (PR: 4)
5. Parasite (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joker (PR: 6)
7. 1917 (PR: 7)
8. Uncut Gems (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 8)
10. Little Women (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Bombshell
Apollo 11
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Bombshell (PR: 1)
2. Judy (PR: 3)
3. Joker (PR: 2)
4. Rocketman (PR: 5)
5. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Maleficent: Mistress of Evil (PR: 7)
7. Dolemite Is My Name (PR: 6)
8. 1917 (PR: 10)
9. Little Women (PR: 8)
10. Downton Abbey (PR: 9)
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. 1917 (PR: 1)
2. Joker (PR: 2)
3. Marriage Story (PR: 4)
4. Little Women (PR: 3)
5. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 5)
7. Motherless Brooklyn (PR: 7)
8. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 8)
9. The King (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Avengers: Endgame (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Pain and Glory
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Into the Unknown” from Frozen II (PR: 1)
2. “(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again” from Rocketman (PR: 2)
3. “Glasgow” from Wild Rose (PR: 4)
4. “Spirit” from The Lion King (PR: 5)
5. “Stand Up” from Harriet (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. “A Glass of Soju” from Parasite (PR: 7)
7. “Daily Battles” from Motherless Brooklyn (PR: 6)
8. “Letter to My Godfather” from The Black Godfather (PR: Not Ranked)
9. “I’m Standing with You” from Breakthrough (PR: 9)
10. “I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away” from Toy Story 4 (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
“Speechless” from Aladdin
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)
2. The Irishman (PR: 2)
3. Little Women (PR: 3)
4. 1917 (PR: 5)
5. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Parasite (PR: 4)
7. Joker (PR: 6)
8. The Two Popes (PR: 10)
9. Downton Abbey (PR: 8)
10. Knives Out (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Ford v Ferrari
Best Sound Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. 1917 (PR: 1)
2. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 2)
3. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 3)
4. Avengers: Endgame (PR: 4)
5. Ad Astra (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Rocketman (PR: 5)
7. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 6)
8. Joker (PR: 7)
9. The Irishman (PR: 9)
10. Us (PR: 10)
Best Sound Mixing
Predicted Nominees:
1. 1917 (PR: 1)
2. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 2)
3. Rocketman (PR: 4)
4. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 6)
5. Avengers: Endgame (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 5)
7. Ad Astra (PR: 7)
8. Joker (PR: 8)
9. The Irishman (PR: 9)
10. Us (PR: 10)
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Lion King (PR: 1)
2. Avengers: Endgame (PR: 2)
3. The Irishman (PR: 4)
4. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 3)
5. 1917 (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Gemini Man (PR: 7)
7. Alita: Battle Angel (PR: 6)
8. Terminator: Dark Fate (PR: 8)
9. Captain Marvel (PR: 9)
10. Cats (PR: 10)
And that equates to these pictures garnering the following numbers for nominations:
10 Nominations
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
9 Nominations
The Irishman
8 Nominations
1917, Marriage Story
7 Nominations
Little Women
6 Nominations
Joker
5 Nominations
Parasite, Rocketman
4 Nominations
Ford v Ferrari, Jojo Rabbit, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
3 Nominations
Avengers: Endgame, Bombshell
2 Nominations
Frozen II, Harriet, Judy, The Lion King, Pain and Glory, The Two Popes
1 Nomination
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, Ad Astra, American Factory, Apollo 11, Atlantics, Corpus Christi, Dolemite Is My Name, Downton Abbey, The Farewell, For Sama, Honeyland, How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World, Hustlers, I Lost My Body, Knives Out, Les Miserables, Missing Link, One Child Nation, Portrait of a Lady on Fire, Toy Story 4, Wild Rose
After opening in limited release over the holidays, true life legal drama Just Mercy expands nationwide next weekend. From director Destin Daniel Cretton, the pic stars Michael B. Jordan as attorney seeking to free wrongfully imprisoned Jamie Foxx. The supporting cast includes Brie Larson, Rob Morgan, Tim Blake Nelson, and Rafe Spall.
Mercy premiered at the Toronto Film Festival back in September to mostly positive reviews. It stands at 81% on Rotten Tomatoes. However, it never managed to achieve any significant awards chatter with the exception of a SAG nod in Supporting Actor for Foxx. He might still get an Oscar nomination (even though that’s iffy), but that should be the extent of any Academy attention. More buzz for top tier nominations could have assisted with the box office.
In the Christmas weekend, this got a per theater average under $30,000 on four screens. That’s less than other rollouts for prestige projects. I will estimate that Mercy barely doesn’t reach double digits as it hits over 2000 venues.
Just Mercy opening weekend prediction: $9.8 million
There are two weeks to go before Oscar nominations come out and it’s been two weeks since I’ve updated my predictions. There’s not much in the way of major movement in the top races, but the numbers have shifted in some cases. Let’s break it down:
In Picture, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood vaults to #1 in what looks like a three-way competition between it, The Irishman, and Parasite.
Bong-Joon Ho rises to first in Director over Tarantino and Scorsese.
There is a change in Actor as Jonathan Pryce is back in over Antonio Banderas. Pain and Glory takes another hit in Original Screenplay as I’ve taken it out and put Knives Out back in.
Check in later this week for my predictions on winners for the Golden Globes, which airs this Sunday. The plan is to have Oscar predictions next Monday and then a post up on Saturday (January 11) with final predictions on the races.
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Previous Ranking: 2)
2. The Irishman (PR: 1)
3. Parasite (PR: 3)
4. Marriage Story (PR: 4)
5. 1917 (PR: 5)
6. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 6)
7. Joker (PR: 7)
8. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 8)
9. Little Women (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
10. The Two Popes (PR: 10)
11. Bombshell (PR: 11)
12. The Farewell (PR: 12)
13. Pain and Glory (PR: 13)
14. Knives Out (PR: 13)
15. Uncut Gems (PR: 14)
Dropped Out:
Rocketman
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Bong Joon-Ho, Parasite (PR: 2)
2. Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 3)
3. Martin Scorsese, The Irishman (PR: 1)
4. Sam Mendes, 1917 (PR: 4)
5. Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Todd Phillips, Joker (PR: 6)
7. James Mangold, Ford v Ferrari (PR: 7)
8. Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit (PR: 9)
9. Greta Gerwig, Little Women (PR: 8)
10. Pedro Almodovar, Pain and Glory (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Ben and Josh Safdie, Uncut Gems
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Adam Driver, Marriage Story (PR: 1)
2. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker (PR: 2)
3. Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 3)
4. Robert De Niro, The Irishman (PR: 5)
5. Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory (PR: 4)
7. Christian Bale, Ford v Ferrari (PR: 6)
8. Eddie Murphy, Dolemite Is My Name (PR: 10)
9. Adam Sandler, Uncut Gems (PR: 8)
10. Taron Egerton, Rocketman (PR: 9)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Renee Zellweger, Judy (PR: 1)
2. Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story (PR: 2)
3. Charlize Theron, Bombshell (PR: 3)
4. Cynthia Erivo, Harriet (PR: 4)
5. Saoirse Ronan, Little Women (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Awkwafina, The Farewell (PR: 7)
7. Lupita Nyong’o, Us (PR: 6)
8. Alfre Woodard, Clemency (PR: 8)
9. Ana de Armas, Knives Out (PR: Not Rankled)
10. Mary Kay Place, Diane (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Elisabeth Moss, Her Smell
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)
2. Al Pacino, The Irishman (PR: 2)
3. Joe Pesci, The Irishman (PR: 3)
4. Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 4)
5. Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jamie Foxx, Just Mercy (PR: 7)
7. Song Kang-Ho, Parasite (PR: 6)
8. Willem Dafoe, The Lighthouse (PR: 8)
9. Shia LaBeouf, Honey Boy (PR: 9)
10. Alan Alda, Marriage Story (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Laura Dern, Marriage Story (PR: 1)
2. Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers (PR: 2)
3. Margot Robbie, Bombshell (PR: 3)
4. Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit (PR: 5)
5. Florence Pugh, Little Women (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nicole Kidman, Bombshell (PR: 9)
7. Zhao Shuzhen, The Farewell (PR: 6)
8. Annette Bening, The Report (PR: 7)
9. Kathy Bates, Richard Jewell (PR: 8)
10. Thomasin McKenzie, Jojo Rabbit (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jo Yeo-Jeong, Parasite
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Irishman (PR: 1)
2. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 2)
3. Little Women (PR: 3)
4. The Two Popes (PR: 4)
5. Joker (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 6)
7. Hustlers (PR: 7)
8. Just Mercy (PR: 8)
9. Richard Jewell (PR: 9)
10. Dark Waters (PR: 10)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees
1. Marriage Story (PR: 1)
2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)
3. Parasite (PR: 3)
4. The Farewell (PR: 4)
5. Knives Out (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Pain and Glory (PR: 5)
7. 1917 (PR: 8)
8. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 9)
9. Bombshell (PR: 7)
10. Dolemite Is My Name (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Uncut Gems
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Parasite (PR: 1)
2. Pain and Glory (PR: 2)
3. Les Miserables (PR: 3)
4. Atlantics (PR: 4)
5. The Painted Bird (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
6. Corpus Christi (PR: 7)
7. Beanpole (PR: 5)
8. Honeyland (PR: 8)
9. Those Who Remained (PR: 6)
10. Truth and Justice (PR: 10)
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Toy Story 4 (PR: 1)
2. Frozen II (PR: 2)
3. How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World (PR: 3)
4. I Lost My Body (PR: 4)
5. Missing Link (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Klaus (PR: 8)
7. Abominable (PR: 6)
8. Weathering with You (PR: 7)
9. Funan (PR: 10)
10. Bunuel in the Labyrinth of the Turtles (PR: 9)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. American Factory (PR: 1)
2. Apollo 11 (PR: 2)
3. For Sama (PR: 4)
4. One Child Nation (PR: 3)
5. Honeyland (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Cave (PR: 6)
7. The Biggest Little Farm (PR: 8)
8. The Edge of Democracy (PR: 7)
9. Midnight Family (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Knock Down the House (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Maiden
Aquarela
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. 1917 (PR: 1)
2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)
3. The Irishman (PR: 4)
4. Joker (PR: 3)
5. Parasite (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Lighthouse (PR: 6)
7. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 8)
8. Portrait of a Lady on Fire (PR: 7)
9. Marriage Story (PR: Not Ranked)
10. A Hidden Life (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Ad Astra
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)
2. Little Women (PR: 2)
3. Dolemite Is My Name (PR: 3)
4. Rocketman (PR: 4)
5. Downton Abbey (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Judy (PR: 7)
7. The Irishman (PR: 6)
8. Joker (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 8)
10. The Aeronauts (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Cats
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 2)
2. The Irishman (PR: 1)
3. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 3)
4. Marriage Story (PR: 6)
5. Parasite (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joker (PR: 7)
7. 1917 (PR: 4)
8. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 8)
9. Bombshell (PR: 9)
10. Apollo 11 (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Knives Out
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Bombshell (PR: 1)
2. Joker (PR: 3)
3. Judy (PR: 2)
4. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 6)
5. Rocketman (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dolemite Is My Name (PR: 4)
7. Maleficent: Mistress of Evil (PR: 10)
8. Little Women (PR: 7)
9. Downton Abbey (PR: 4)
10. 1917 (PR: 9)
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. 1917 (PR: 1)
2. Joker (PR: 5)
3. Little Women (PR: 3)
4. Marriage Story (PR: 4)
5. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 2)
7. Motherless Brooklyn (PR: 10)
8. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 8)
9. Avengers: Endgame (PR: 9)
10. Pain and Glory (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Us
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Into the Unknown” from Frozen II (PR: 1)
2. “(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again” from Rocketman (PR: 2)
3. “Stand Up” from Harriet (PR: 3)
4. “Glasgow” from Wild Rose (PR: 5)
5. “Spirit” from The Lion King (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Daily Battles” from Motherless Brooklyn (PR: 6)
7. “A Glass of Soju” from Parasite (PR: 9)
8. “I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away” from Toy Story 4 (PR: 8)
9. “I’m Standing with You” from Breakthrough (PR: 10)
10. “Speechless” from Aladdin (PR: 7)
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)
2. The Irishman (PR: 4)
3. Little Women (PR: 3)
4. Parasite (PR: 6)
5. 1917 (PR: 2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joker (PR: 5)
7. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 7)
8. Downton Abbey (PR: 8)
9. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 9)
10. The Two Popes (PR: 10)
Best Sound Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. 1917 (PR: 1)
2. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 2)
3. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 3)
4. Avengers: Endgame (PR: 5)
5. Rocketman (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 7)
7. Joker (PR: 4)
8. Ad Astra (PR: 9)
9. The Irishman (PR: 8)
10. Us (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
John Wick: Chapter 3 – Parabellum
Best Sound Mixing
Predicted Nominees:
1. 1917 (PR: 1)
2. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 2)
3. Avengers: Endgame (PR: 5)
4. Rocketman (PR: 4)
5. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 3)
7. Ad Astra (PR: 10)
8. Joker (PR: 6)
9. The Irishman (PR: 8)
10. Us (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Cats
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Lion King (PR: 4)
2. Avengers: Endgame (PR: 3)
3. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 2)
4. The Irishman (PR: 1)
5. 1917 (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Alita: Battle Angel (PR: 6)
7. Gemini Man (PR: 7)
8. Terminator: Dark Fate (PR: 10)
9. Captain Marvel (PR: 8)
10. Cats (PR: 9)
And that equates to these films getting the following numbers of nods:
11 Nominations
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
10 Nominations
The Irishman
8 Nominations
1917, Marriage Story
7 Nominations
Little Women, Parasite
6 Nominations
Joker
5 Nominations
Ford v Ferrari, Rocketman
3 Nominations
Avengers: Endgame, Bombshell, Jojo Rabbit, The Two Popes
2 Nominations
Frozen II, Harriet, Judy, The Lion King, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
1 Nomination
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, American Factory, Apollo 11, Atlantics, Dolemite Is My Name, Downton Abbey, The Farewell, For Sama, Honeyland, How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World, Hustlers, I Lost My Body, Knives Out, Les Miserables, Missing Link, One Child Nation, Pain and Glory, The Painted Bird, Toy Story 4, Wild Rose
It’s been another action packed week on the Oscar predicting front! Since last Monday, the SAG Award nominations came out and today – we saw numerous categories reveal their shortlists. This is when races are whittled down to 10 or 15 possible nominees and it applies to International Feature Film, Documentary Feature, Original Score and Song, Makeup and Hairstyling, and Visual Effects. As always, there were surprises. These include “Beautiful Ghosts” from Cats unlisted from Song, The Irishman absent from Makeup and Hairstyling, and Ad Astra and The Aeronauts left out for Visual Effects. You’ll notice that in these categories – there’s more dropouts than normal and that’s why.
As for the top line races, we have changes:
I am finally estimating that nine movies will be nominated for Best Picture instead of ten and that puts The Two Popes on the outside looking in.
The bad news for Popes continues as it’s Leonardo Dicaprio in and Jonathan Pryce out. I still have Robert De Niro clinging to the five spot, despite missing the Globes and SAG. We shall see if he remains in the fold as time goes on.
In Actress, it’s Cynthia Erivo in and Awkwafina out. I’ve got Lupita Nyong’o in the sixth position after a strong week of precursor love. She’s knocking right on the door.
Scarlett Johansson is back in for Supporting Actress to the detriment of Annette Bening. Like the SAG Awards, that means I’m projecting a double nomination for ScarJo. That would mark her first and second nominations.
In Original Screenplay, I’ve got Pain and Glory back in over Knives Out.
Let’s get to it!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Irishman (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)
3. Parasite (PR: 4)
4. Marriage Story (PR: 3)
5. 1917 (PR: 5)
6. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 6)
7. Joker (PR: 8)
8. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 9)
9. Little Women (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
10. The Two Popes (PR: 10)
11. Bombshell (PR: 15)
12. The Farewell (PR: 11)
13. Knives Out (PR: 12)
14. Uncut Gems (PR: 13)
15. Rocketman (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Richard Jewell
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Martin Scorsese, The Irishman (PR: 1)
2. Bong Joon-Ho, Parasite (PR: 3)
3. Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)
4. Sam Mendes, 1917 (PR: 4)
5. Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Todd Phillips, Joker (PR: 8)
7. James Mangold, Ford v Ferrari (PR: 7)
8. Greta Gerwig, Little Women (PR: 6)
9. Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit (PR: 9)
10. Ben and Josh Safdie, Uncut Gems (PR: 10)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Adam Driver, Marriage Story (PR: 1)
2. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker (PR: 2)
3. Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 6)
4. Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory (PR: 3)
5. Robert De Niro, The Irishman (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Christian Bale, Ford v Ferrari (PR: 9)
7. Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes (PR: 5)
8. Adam Sandler, Uncut Gems (PR: 7)
9. Taron Egerton, Rocketman (PR: 10)
10. Eddie Murphy, Dolemite Is My Name (PR: 8)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Renee Zellweger, Judy (PR: 1)
2. Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story (PR: 2)
3. Charlize Theron, Bombshell (PR: 3)
4. Cynthia Erivo, Harriet (PR: 6)
5. Saoirse Ronan, Little Women (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Lupita Nyong’o, Us (PR: 7)
7. Awkwafina, The Farewell (PR: 5)
8. Alfre Woodard, Clemency (PR: 8)
9. Mary Kay Place, Diane (PR: 9)
10. Elisabeth Moss, Her Smell (PR: 10)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)
2. Al Pacino, The Irishman (PR: 2)
3. Joe Pesci, The Irishman (PR: 3)
4. Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 4)
5. Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Song Kang-Ho, Parasite (PR: 8)
7. Jamie Foxx, Just Mercy (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Willem Dafoe, The Lighthouse (PR: 6)
9. Shia LaBeouf, Honey Boy (PR: 7)
10. Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Sam Rockwell, Richard Jewell
Wesley Snipes, Dolemite Is My Name
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Laura Dern, Marriage Story (PR: 1)
2. Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers (PR: 2)
3. Margot Robbie, Bombshell (PR: 3)
4. Florence Pugh, Little Women (PR: 4)
5. Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Zhao Shuzhen, The Farewell (PR: 6)
7. Annette Bening, The Report (PR: 5)
8. Kathy Bates, Richard Jewell (PR: 7)
9. Nicole Kidman, Bombshell (PR: 9)
10. Jo Yeo-Jeong, Parasite (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Taylor Russell, Waves
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Irishman (PR: 1)
2. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 2)
3. Little Women (PR: 5)
4. The Two Popes (PR: 3)
5. Joker (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 7)
7. Hustlers (PR: 6)
8. Just Mercy (PR: 9)
9. Richard Jewell (PR: 8)
10. Dark Waters (PR: 10)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Marriage Story (PR: 1)
2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)
3. Parasite (PR: 3)
4. The Farewell (PR: 4)
5. Pain and Glory (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Knives Out (PR: 5)
7. Bombshell (PR: 9)
8. 1917 (PR: 8)
9. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 10)
10. Uncut Gems (PR: 7)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Parasite (PR: 1)
2. Pain and Glory (PR: 2)
3. Les Miserables (PR: 3)
4. Atlantics (PR: 6)
5. Beanpole (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Those Who Remained (PR: 10)
7. Corpus Christi (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Honeyland (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The Painted Bird (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Truth and Justice (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Monos
Invisible Life
A White, White Day
And Then We Danced
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Toy Story 4 (PR: 1)
2. Frozen II (PR: 2)
3. How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World (PR: 3)
4. I Lost My Body (PR: 4)
5. Missing Link (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Abominable (PR: 7)
7. Weathering with You (PR: 8)
8. Klaus (PR: 6)
9. Bunuel in the Labyrinth of the Turtles (PR: 9)
10. Funan (PR: 10)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. American Factory (PR: 1)
2. Apollo 11 (PR: 2)
3. One Child Nation (PR: 3)
4. For Sama (PR: 4)
5. Honeyland (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Cave (PR: 6)
7. The Edge of Democracy (PR: 9)
8. The Biggest Little Farm (PR: 8)
9. Maiden (PR: 10)
10. Aquarela (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Sea of Shadows
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. 1917 (PR: 1)
2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)
3. Joker (PR: 3)
4. The Irishman (PR: 4)
5. Parasite (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Lighthouse (PR: 5)
7. Portrait of a Lady on Fire (PR: 6)
8. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 10)
9. A Hidden Life (PR: 9)
10. Ad Astra (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Two Popes
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)
2. Little Women (PR: 1)
3. Dolemite Is My Name (PR: 3)
4. Rocketman (PR: 4)
5. Downton Abbey (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Irishman (PR: 7)
7. Judy (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 6)
9. Cats (PR: 10)
10. The Aeronauts (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Aladdin
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Irishman (PR: 1)
2. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 4)
3. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 3)
4. 1917 (PR: 2)
5. Parasite (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Marriage Story (PR: 5)
7. Joker (PR: 7)
8. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 10)
9. Bombshell (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Knives Out (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
The Two Popes
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Bombshell (PR: 1)
2. Judy (PR: 3)
3. Joker (PR: 6)
4. Downton Abbey (PR: Not Ranked)
5. Dolemite Is My Name (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 5)
7. Little Women (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Rocketman (PR: 8)
9. 1917 (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Maleficent: Mistress of Evil (PR: Not Ranked)
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. 1917 (PR: 1)
2. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 2)
3. Little Women (PR: 4)
4. Marriage Story (PR: 3)
5. Joker (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 6)
7. Us (PR: 8)
8. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 7)
9. Avengers: Endgame (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Motherless Brooklyn (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Aeronauts
Waves
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Into the Unknown” from Frozen II (PR: 1)
2. “(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again” from Rocketman (PR: 2)
3. “Stand Up” from Harriet (PR: 4)
4. “Spirit” from The Lion King (PR: 5)
5. “Glasgow” from Wild Rose (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Daily Battles” from Motherless Brooklyn (PR: 10)
7. “Speechless” from Aladdin (PR: 7)
8. “I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away” from Toy Story 4 (PR: 6)
9. “A Glass of Soju” from Parasite (PR: Not Ranked)
10. “I’m Standing with You” from Breakthrough (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
“Beautiful Ghosts” from Cats
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)
2. 1917 (PR: 2)
3. Little Women (PR: 4)
4. The Irishman (PR: 3)
5. Joker (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Parasite (PR: 6)
7. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 5)
8. Downton Abbey (PR: 8)
9. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 10)
10. The Two Popes (PR: 9)
Best Sound Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. 1917 (PR: 1)
2. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 2)
3. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 3)
4. Joker (PR: 8)
5. Avengers: Endgame (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Rocketman (PR: 6)
7. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 7)
8. The Irishman (PR: 9)
9. Ad Astra (PR: 5)
10. John Wick – Chapter 3: Parabellum (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Cats
Best Sound Mixing
Predicted Nominees:
1. 1917 (PR: 1)
2. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 2)
3. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 3)
4. Rocketman (PR: 4)
5. Avengers: Endgame (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joker (PR: 5)
7. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 9)
8. The Irishman (PR: 10)
9. Cats (PR: 7)
10. Ad Astra (PR: 8)
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Irishman (PR: 1)
2. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 2)
3. Avengers: Endgame (PR: 4)
4. The Lion King (PR: 3)
5. 1917 (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Alita: Battle Angel (PR: 8)
7. Gemini Man (PR: 9)
8. Captain Marvel (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Cats (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Terminator: Dark Fate (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Aeronauts
Ad Astra
Aladdin
And that equates to the following pictures nabbing these numbers for nominations:
10 Nominations
The Irishman
9 Nominations
1917, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
8 Nominations
Joker
7 Nominations
Little Women, Marriage Story
6 Nominations
Parasite
4 Nominations
Ford v Ferrari, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
3 Nominations
Avengers: Endgame, Bombshell, Jojo Rabbit, Pain and Glory, Rocketman
2 Nominations
Dolemite Is My Name, Downton Abbey, Frozen II, Harriet, Judy, The Lion King, The Two Popes
1 Nomination
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, American Factory, Apollo 11, Atlantics, Beanpole, The Farewell, For Sama, Honeyland, How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World, Hustlers, I Lost My Body, Les Miserables, Missing Link, One Child Nation, Toy Story 4, Wild Rose
The Screen Actors Guild voters definitely had some surprises in store this morning as they unveiled their nominations for the ceremony airing on January 19th. And the biggest bombshell was… the performance of Bombshell itself, which led the major nods with four. This was followed by The Irishman, Marriage Story, and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood at three.
Some quick takes before I break it down race by race. It was a bad morning for Dolemite Is My Name, The Farewell, Little Women, and The Two Popes as they received zero nominations. For Dolemite, I thought this might be the branch that would give it some attention. It wasn’t to be.
The nominations today have made Best Actor more confusing and opened up even more the possibility of two actors that I didn’t have listed as alternates factoring into the Oscar mix. All in all, on a morning that had genuine surprises, I went 16 for 25 on my picks. Here’s how it happened:
Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble in a Motion Picture
Nominees: Bombshell, The Irishman, Jojo Rabbit, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Parasite
How I Did: 3/5
Analysis: The absence of Marriage Story here is unexpected. Less so is the omission of the aforementioned Dolemite. I didn’t have Bombshell or Parasite named here. The Parasite nod could be construed as a strong sign that it’s a real contender for Best Picture for that other awards ceremony. This race probably comes down to Irishman or Hollywood and the latter likely has the edge.
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role in a Motion Picture
Nominees: Christian Bale (Ford v Ferrari), Leonardo DiCaprio (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood), Adam Driver (Marriage Story), Taron Egerton (Rocketman), Joaquin Phoenix (Joker)
How I Did: 3/5
Analysis: It was Bale and Egerton that I didn’t have listed as my first or second alternate. Those spots were instead designated for Antonio Banderas in Pain and Glory and Adam Sandler in Uncut Gems. This opens up Bale and Egerton to greater Academy attention. It’s also worth noting that Robert De Niro’s work in The Irishman has now been snubbed by the Golden Globe and SAG voters. This makes his road to Oscar considerably bumpier. As I suspect it will be with the Oscars, I suspect it’s Driver vs. Phoenix with this category.
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role in a Motion Picture
Analysis: No 5 for 5 projections for this blogger today and this is the only one where I named four correctly. It’s Nyong’o in over Awkwafina in The Farewell and that could assist with her Oscar cred after already picking up some critics awards. While Zellweger might be called the soft front runner, the Bombshell love certainly increases the possibility of a Theron win.
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture
Nominees: Jamie Foxx (Just Mercy), Tom Hanks (A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood), Al Pacino (The Irishman), Joe Pesci (The Irishman), Brad Pitt (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)
How I Did: 3/5
Analysis: I mentioned yesterday in my predictions post that it might be foolish to leave out Hanks and I was proven right. The genuine surprise here is Foxx, who has been falling under the radar screen as of late (I didn’t even have him in my top 10 of possibilities in my Oscar estimates on Monday). Expect that to change. Hanks and Foxx are in over Willem Dafoe for The Lighthouse (he missed the Globes too) and Anthony Hopkins for The Two Popes. As I said with the Globes, a Pacino/Pesci split could clear the way for Pitt’s trip to the podium.
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture
Nominees: Laura Dern (Marriage Story), Scarlett Johansson (Jojo Rabbit), Nicole Kidman (Bombshell), Jennifer Lopez (Hustlers), Margot Robbie (Bombshell)
How I Did: 3/5
Analysis: One item I did call was the double nomination for Johansson. I did not anticipate Kidman getting in along with her Bombshell costar Robbie. In fact, I didn’t predict either of them as I went with Florence Pugh in Little Women and Zhao Shuzhen in The Farewell. Both of those actresses also missed Globe nods. Dern and Lopez could find themselves in a battle for this one. I also wouldn’t totally rule out the chance for a ScarJo upset as voters may want to honor her double nod (as they did here with Emily Blunt in 2018 for A Quiet Place).
I imagine these SAG Award announcements will impact my thinking when I update my Oscar projections on Monday. Stay tuned…
Two key screenings took place over the week with significant Oscar implications and there’s some movement in major categories to discuss:
1917, the World War I epic from Sam Mendes, finally availed itself to critics and the feedback is extremely positive. While I’d had it projected for Picture and Director for some time, its numbers (3 and 2 respectively) are the highest yet.
Clint Eastwood’s Richard Jewell screened at AFI Fest. Some reviews indicate it’s a contender in Picture, but I’m not quite there. It does vault back in the 15 possibilities at 13 and both Paul Walter Hauser in Actor and Kathy Bates in Supporting Actress are now in the mix, but not projected in the top five.
Bombshell is back in my ten projected Picture nominees over Ford v Ferrari.
Zhao Shuzhen finally makes the cut in Supporting Actress, displacing Scarlett Johansson in Jojo Rabbit.
Tom Hanks slides to fifth in Supporting Actor after the so-so box office performance of A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood. I suspect he could fall out with Joe Pesci (The Irishman) and Shia LaBeouf (Honey Boy) hot on his heels.
While my five Best Actor contenders remain the same, this is the most packed field in ages. I could legitimately see any of my ten listed thespians getting in, as well as Christian Bale (who falls to 11th).
Let’s get to it!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Irishman (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)
3. 1917 (PR: 6)
4. Marriage Story (PR: 4)
5. Parasite (PR: 3)
6. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 5)
7. Little Women (PR: 7)
8. Joker (PR: 8)
9. The Two Popes (PR: 9)
10. Bombshell (PR: 11)
Other Possibilities:
11. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 10)
12. The Farewell (PR: 12)
13. Richard Jewell (PR: Not Ranked)
14. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 13)
15. Rocketman (PR: 14)
Dropped Out:
Waves
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Martin Scorsese, The Irishman (PR: 1)
2. Sam Mendes, 1917 (PR: 5)
3. Bong Joon-Ho, Parasite (PR: 3)
4. Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)
5. Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Greta Gerwig, Little Women (PR: 6)
7. Todd Phillips, Joker (PR: 9)
8. Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit (PR: 8)
9. James Mangold, Ford v Ferrari (PR: 7)
10. Fernando Meirelles, The Two Popes (PR: 10)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Adam Driver, Marriage Story (PR: 1)
2. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker (PR: 2)
3. Robert De Niro, The Irishman (PR: 3)
4. Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 5)
5. Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory (PR: 6)
7. Eddie Murphy, Dolemite Is My Name (PR: 8)
8. Taron Egerton, Rocketman (PR: 7)
9. Paul Walter Hauser, Richard Jewell (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Adam Sandler, Uncut Gems (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Christian Bale, Ford v Ferrari
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Renee Zellweger, Judy (PR: 1)
2. Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story (PR: 2)
3. Charlize Theron, Bombshell (PR: 3)
4. Saoirse Ronan, Little Women (PR: 4)
5. Cynthia Erivo, Harriet (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Awkwafina, The Farewell (PR: 6)
7. Alfre Woodard, Clemency (PR: 8)
8. Lupita Nyong’o, Us (PR: 7)
9. Elisabeth Moss, Her Smell (PR: 9)
10. Mary Kay Place, Diane (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jodie Turner-Smith, Queen and Slim
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Laura Dern, Marriage Story (PR: 1)
2. Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers (PR: 3)
3. Margot Robbie, Bombshell (PR: 2)
4. Zhao Shuzhen, The Farewell (PR: 6)
5. Florence Pugh, Little Women (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit (PR: 5)
7. Annette Bening, The Report (PR: 7)
8. Kathy Bates, Richard Jewell (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey (PR: 8)
10. Margot Robbie, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Thomasin McKenzie, Jojo Rabbit
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)
2. Al Pacino, The Irishman (PR: 2)
3. Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes (PR: 5)
4. Willem Dafoe, The Lighthouse (PR: 3)
5. Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joe Pesci, The Irishman (PR: 7)
7. Shia LaBeouf, Honey Boy (PR: 6)
8. Sterling K. Brown, Waves (PR: 9)
9. Song Kang-Ho, Parasite (PR: 8)
10. John Lithgow, Bombshell (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jamie Foxx, Just Mercy
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)
2. Marriage Story (PR: 1)
3. Parasite (PR: 3)
4. The Farewell (PR: 4)
5. Pain and Glory (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Bombshell (PR: 6)
7. 1917 (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Knives Out (PR: 7)
9. Honey Boy (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Booksmart
Waves
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Irishman (PR: 1)
2. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 2)
3. The Two Popes (PR: 4)
4. Little Women (PR: 3)
5. Joker (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 6)
7. Hustlers (PR: 9)
8. Richard Jewell (PR: 8)
9. Just Mercy (PR: 7)
10. Dark Waters (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Downton Abbey
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Parasite (PR: 1)
2. Pain and Glory (PR: 2)
3. Les Miserables (PR: 3)
4. Monos (PR: 8)
5. And Then We Danced (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Invisible Life (PR: 6)
7. Atlantics (PR: 7)
8. Beanpole (PR: 5)
9. Those Who Remained (PR: 9)
10. A White, White Day (PR: 10)
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Toy Story 4 (PR: 1)
2. Frozen II (PR: 2)
3. How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World (PR: 3)
4. I Lost My Body (PR: 4)
5. Weathering with You (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Klaus (PR: 8)
7. Abominable (PR: 6)
8. Missing Link (PR: 7)
9. Bunuel in the Labyrinth of the Turtles (PR: 9)
10. Funan (PR: 10)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. American Factory (PR: 1)
2. One Child Nation (PR: 2)
3. Maiden (PR: 6)
4. Apollo 11 (PR: 5)
5. For Sama (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Cave (PR: 3)
7. The Biggest Little Farm (PR: 7)
8. Honeyland (PR: 4)
9. Sea of Shadows (PR: 8)
10. The Kingmaker (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Edge of Democracy
Knock Down the House
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. 1917 (PR: 1)
2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)
3. The Irishman (PR: 3)
4. The Lighthouse (PR: 4)
5. Joker (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Parasite (PR: 9)
7. A Hidden Life (PR: 7)
8. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 8)
9. Little Women (PR: 10)
10. Ad Astra (PR: 6)
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Little Women (PR: 2)
2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)
3. Dolemite Is My Name (PR: 4)
4. Rocketman (PR: 5)
5. Downton Abbey (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Irishman (PR: 6)
7. Judy (PR: 10)
8. The Aeronauts (PR: 7)
9. Cats (PR: 9)
10. Aladdin (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jojo Rabbit
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Irishman (PR: 1)
2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 3)
3. 1917 (PR: 4)
4. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 2)
5. Parasite (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Marriage Story (PR: 6)
7. Joker (PR: 9)
8. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 7)
9. Bombshell (PR: 8)
10. The Two Popes (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Rocketman
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Bombshell (PR: 1)
2. The Irishman (PR: 2)
3. Judy (PR: 3)
4. Dolemite Is My Name (PR: 5)
5. Us (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 4)
7. Joker (PR: 6)
8. Rocketman (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 9)
10. Cats (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
The Aeronauts
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)
2. Little Women (PR: 2)
3. 1917 (PR: 5)
4. The Irishman (PR: 3)
5. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Parasite (PR: 6)
7. Joker (PR: 7)
8. The Two Popes (PR: 10)
9. Cats (PR: 8)
10. Downton Abbey (PR: 9)
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. 1917 (PR: 1)
2. Little Women (PR: 2)
3. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 3)
4. Marriage Story (PR: 5)
5. Joker (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 8)
7. A Hidden Life (PR: 7)
8. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 6)
9. Waves (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Ad Astra (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
The Aeronauts
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Into the Unknown” from Frozen II (PR: 1)
2. “(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again” from Rocketman (PR: 2)
3. “Stand Up” from Harriet (PR: 4)
4. “Beautiful Ghosts” from Cats (PR: 3)
5. “Speechless” from Aladdin (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Spirit” from The Lion King (PR: 5)
7. “I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away” from Toy Story 4 (PR: 10)
8. “Daily Battles” from Motherless Brooklyn (PR: 6)
9. “Glasgow” from Wild Rose (PR: Not Ranked)
10. “Together From Afar” from How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
“Show Yourself” from Frozen II
Best Sound Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. 1917 (PR: 2)
2. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 1)
3. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 3)
4. Avengers: Endgame (PR: 5)
5. Ad Astra (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Rocketman (PR: 6)
7. The Irishman (PR: 7)
8. Joker (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 8)
10. Cats (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
The Aeronauts
Best Sound Mixing
Predicted Nominees:
1. 1917 (PR: 1)
2. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 2)
3. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 3)
4. Avengers: Endgame (PR: 6)
5. Rocketman (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ad Astra (PR: 5)
7. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 7)
8. Cats (PR: 8)
9. The Irishman (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Joker (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Judy
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Irishman (PR: 1)
2. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 2)
3. Avengers: Endgame (PR: 3)
4. The Lion King (PR: 4)
5. The Aeronauts (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ad Astra (PR: 6)
7. 1917 (PR: 10)
8. Alita: Battle Angel (PR: 8)
9. Gemini Man (PR: 7)
10. Aladdin (PR: 9)
And this all equates to these pictures nabbing the following numbers of nods:
10 Nominations
The Irishman
9 Nominations
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
8 Nominations
1917
7 Nominations
Little Women, Marriage Story
5 Nominations
Joker, Parasite
4 Nominations
Bombshell, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, The Two Popes
3 Nominations
Avengers: Endgame, Ford v Ferrari, Jojo Rabbit, Rocketman
2 Nominations
Dolemite Is My Name, The Farewell, Frozen II, Harriet, Judy, The Lighthouse, Pain and Glory
1 Nomination
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, Ad Astra, The Aeronauts, Aladdin, American Factory, And Then We Danced, Apollo 11, Cats, Downton Abbey, For Sama, How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World, Hustlers, I Lost My Body, Les Miserables, The Lion King, Maiden, Monos, One Child Nation, Toy Story 4, Us, Weathering with You
The pleasing box office performance of Ford v Ferrari assists in putting it back in my top ten predicted Best Picture guesses. It does so by displacing Bombshell, which I still certainly consider to be a very viable candidate.
While my five Best Actor estimates remains the same, this is the most competitive field in ages and that’s without official advance word on Paul Walter Hauser in Richard Jewell (which screens this week). I truly believe all ten listed thespians could get in.
I’m starting to feel that the never nominated Scarlett Johansson is going to a double nominee. I’ve vaulted her into the top 5 for Supporting Actress for Jojo Rabbit, in addition to her already likely nod in lead for Marriage Story. In Supporting, she gets in over Annette Bening in The Report.
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Irishman (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)
3. Parasite (PR: 3)
4. Marriage Story (PR: 4)
5. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 5)
6. 1917 (PR: 7)
7. Little Women (PR: 6)
8. Joker (PR: 10)
9. The Two Popes (PR: 8)
10. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 11)
Other Possibilities:
11. Bombshell (PR: 9)
12. The Farewell (PR: 12)
13. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 13)
14. Rocketman (PR: 14)
15. Waves (PR: 15)
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Martin Scorsese, The Irishman (PR: 1)
2. Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 3)
3. Bong Joon-Ho, Parasite (PR: 2)
4. Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story (PR: 4)
5. Sam Mendes, 1917 (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Greta Gerwig, Little Women (PR: 6)
7. James Mangold, Ford v Ferrari (PR: 8)
8. Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit (PR: 7)
9. Todd Phillips, Joker (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Fernando Meirelles, The Two Popes (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Lulu Wang, The Farewell
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Renee Zellweger, Judy (PR: 1)
2. Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story (PR: 2)
3. Charlize Theron, Bombshell (PR: 3)
4. Saoirse Ronan, Little Women (PR: 4)
5. Cynthia Erivo, Harriet (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Awkwafina, The Farewell (PR: 6)
7. Lupita Nyong’o, Us (PR: 7)
8. Alfre Woodard, Clemency (PR: 8)
9. Elisabeth Moss, Her Smell (PR: 9)
10. Jodie Turner-Smith, Queen and Slim (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Felicity Jones, The Aeronauts
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Adam Driver, Marriage Story (PR: 1)
2. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker (PR: 2)
3. Robert De Niro, The Irishman (PR: 3)
4. Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes (PR: 5)
5. Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory (PR: 6)
7. Taron Egerton, Rocketman (PR: 8)
8. Eddie Murphy, Dolemite Is My Name (PR: 7)
9. Christian Bale, Ford v Ferrari (PR: 9)
10. Adam Sandler, Uncut Gems (PR: 10)
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Laura Dern, Marriage Story (PR: 1)
2. Margot Robbie, Bombshell (PR: 3)
3. Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers (PR: 2)
4. Florence Pugh, Little Women (PR: 4)
5. Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Zhou Shuzhen, The Farewell (PR: 6)
7. Annette Bening, The Report (PR: 5)
8. Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey (PR: 8)
9. Thomasin McKenzie, Jojo Rabbit (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Margot Robbie, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Nicole Kidman, Bombshell
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)
2. Al Pacino, The Irishman (PR: 2)
3. Willem Dafoe, The Lighthouse (PR: 4)
4. Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 3)
5. Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Shia LaBeouf, Honey Boy (PR: 6)
7. Joe Pesci, The Irishman (PR: 7)
8. Song Kang-Ho, Parasite (PR: 8)
9. Sterling K. Brown, Waves (PR: 10)
10. Jamie Foxx, Just Mercy (PR: 9)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Irishman (PR: 1)
2. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 2)
3. Little Women (PR: 3)
4. The Two Popes (PR: 4)
5. Joker (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 5)
7. Just Mercy (PR: 7)
8. Richard Jewell (PR: 8)
9. Hustlers (PR: 10)
10. Downton Abbey (PR: 9)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Marriage Story (PR: 1)
2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)
3. Parasite (PR: 3)
4. The Farewell (PR: 4)
5. Pain and Glory (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Bombshell (PR: 6)
7. Knives Out (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Booksmart (PR: 7)
9. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 9)
10. Waves (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Honey Boy
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Parasite (PR: 1)
2. Pain and Glory (PR: 2)
3. Les Miserables (PR: 3)
4. And Then We Danced (PR: 7)
5. Beanpole (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Invisible Life (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Atlantics (PR: 4)
8. Monos (PR: 6)
9. Those Who Remained (PR: 9)
10. A White, White Day (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Papicha
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Toy Story 4 (PR: 1)
2. Frozen II (PR: 2)
3. How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World (PR: 3)
4. I Lost My Body (PR: 4)
5. Weathering with You (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Abominable (PR: 6)
7. Missing Link (PR: 7)
8. Klaus (PR: 9)
9. Bunuel in the Labyrinth of the Turtles (PR: 8)
10. Funan (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Spies in Disguise
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. American Factory (PR: 1)
2. One Child Nation (PR: 2)
3. The Cave (PR: 3)
4. Honeyland (PR: 7)
5. Apollo 11 (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Maiden (PR: 4)
7. The Biggest Little Farm (PR: 6)
8. Sea of Shadows (PR: 10)
9. The Edge of Democracy (PR: 9)
10. Knock Down the House (PR: 8)
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. 1917 (PR: 1)
2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 3)
3. The Irishman (PR: 2)
4. The Lighthouse (PR: 4)
5. Joker (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ad Astra (PR: 8)
7. A Hidden Life (PR: 7)
8. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 6)
9. Parasite (PR: 9)
10. Little Women (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Marriage Story
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)
2. Little Women (PR: 5)
3. Downton Abbey (PR: 2)
4. Dolemite Is My Name (PR: 4)
5. Rocketman (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Irishman (PR: 6)
7. The Aeronauts (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 8)
9. Cats (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Judy (PR: 7)
Dropped Out:
Joker
Dumbo
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Irishman (PR: 1)
2. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 2)
3. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 3)
4. 1917 (PR: 6)
5. Parasite (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Marriage Story (PR: 5)
7. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 8)
8. Bombshell (PR: 7)
9. Joker (PR: 9)
10. Rocketman (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Avengers: Endgame
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Bombshell (PR: 1)
2. The Irishman (PR: 2)
3. Judy (PR: 3)
4. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 4)
5. Dolemite Is My Name (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joker (PR: 7)
7. Us (PR: 10)
8. The Aeronauts (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 8)
10. Cats (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Rocketman
The Two Popes
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)
2. Little Women (PR: 3)
3. The Irishman (PR: 2)
4. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 6)
5. 1917 (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Parasite (PR: 5)
7. Joker (PR: 9)
8. Cats (PR: 7)
9. Downton Abbey (PR: 8)
10. The Two Popes (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Aeronauts
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. 1917 (PR: 1)
2. Little Women (PR: 2)
3. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 3)
4. Joker (PR: 5)
5. Marriage Story (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 8)
7. A Hidden Life (PR: 7)
8. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 6)
9. The Aeronauts (PR: 9)
10. Ad Astra (PR: 10)
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Into the Unknown” from Frozen II (PR: 1)
2. “(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again” from Rocketman (PR: 2)
3. “Beautiful Ghosts” from Cats (PR: 4)
4. “Stand Up” from Harriet (PR: 3)
5. “Spirit” from The Lion King (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Daily Battles” from Motherless Brooklyn (PR: 7)
7. “Speechless” from Aladdin (PR: 6)
8. “Show Yourself” from Frozen II (PR: Not Ranked)
9. “Together From Afar” from How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World (PR: 9)
10. “I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away” from Toy Story 4 (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
“I’m Standing with You” from Breakthrough
Best Sound Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 2)
2. 1917 (PR: 1)
3. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 3)
4. Ad Astra (PR: 5)
5. Avengers: Endgame (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Rocketman (PR: 6)
7. The Irishman (PR: 8)
8. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 7)
9. Cats (PR: 9)
10. The Aeronauts (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Richard Jewell
Best Sound Mixing
Predicted Nominees:
1. 1917 (PR: 1)
2. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 2)
3. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 3)
4. Rocketman (PR: 4)
5. Ad Astra (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Avengers: Endgame (PR: 5)
7. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 7)
8. Cats (PR: 8)
9. Joker (PR: 10)
10. Judy (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Irishman
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Irishman (PR: 1)
2. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 2)
3. Avengers: Endgame (PR: 4)
4. The Lion King (PR: 3)
5. The Aeronauts (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ad Astra (PR: 6)
7. Gemini Man (PR: 7)
8. Alita: Battle Angel (PR: 9)
9. Aladdin (PR: Not Ranked)
10. 1917 (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Dumbo
And that equates to the following features obtaining these numbers come nomination time:
10 Nominations
The Irishman, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
8 Nominations
1917
7 Nominations
Little Women, Marriage Story
5 Nominations
Joker, Parasite
4 Nominations
Ford v Ferrari, Jojo Rabbit, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, The Two Popes
3 Nominations
Bombshell, Rocketman
2 Nominations
Ad Astra, Avengers: Endgame, Dolemite Is My Name, Frozen II, Harriet, Judy, The Lighthouse, The Lion King, Pain and Glory
1 Nomination
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, The Aeronauts, American Factory, And Then We Danced, Apollo 11, Beanpole, Cats, The Cave, Downton Abbey, The Farewell, Honeyland, How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World, Hustlers, I Lost My Body, Les Miserables, One Child Nation, Toy Story 4, Weathering with You
