Women Talking is the final Case Of post for the Best Picture nominees at the 95th Academy Awards. Will we be talking about Women gathering Oscars come March 12th? Let’s get into it.
The Case for Women Talking:
Sarah Polley’s adaptation of the 2018 Miriam Toews novel generated awards buzz out of the gate when it premiered at Toronto. At the Critics Choice Awards, it had a respectable showing with six mentions including BP and Director with a victory in Adapted Screenplay.
The Case Against Women Talking:
There’s a lot. For starters, its total of two nominations is the lowest of the candidates (it’s rare for a BP contender to have only one other nom). Women was ignored in Director, Original Score, and for any of its performances and it was once thought to be in contention for all. BAFTA totally ignored it. The Golden Globes only put it up in two races (Screenplay and Score) and it lost both. Its SAG count is one category. That was in Ensemble with individual players like Jessie Buckley, Claire Foy, and Ben Whishaw left out. Box office grosses have been subpar.
Other Nominations:
Adapted Screenplay
The Verdict:
Women Talking does stand a chance of becoming the Adapted Screenplay recipient. Perhaps this can cling to the hope that CODA took BP last year and it tied for the least numbers of nominations among the ten. Realistically there is just about zero chance of this becoming Best Picture.
While my Case Of posts for BP have concluded, I will now move to the filmmakers and thespians in Director and the four acting derbies. That will begin with the Daniels and their direction of Everything Everywhere All at Once!
If you missed my Case Of posts for the other BP nominees, you can access them here:
CODA lead Emilia Jones has had a busy Sundance 2023 with Cat Person and Fairyland. The latter finds her being raised by her gay father (Scoot McNairy) in 1980s San Francisco. Costars include Geena Davis, Cody Fern, Adam Lambert, and Maria Bakalova (2020 Supporting Actress contender for Borat Subsequent Moviefilm). It marks the directorial debut of Andrew Durham.
The consistent theme from the fest’s reviews are that it’s good, but not great (it does sit at 100% on Rotten Tomatoes). McNairy, a character actor who’s popped up in everything from Killing Them Softly to 12 Years a Slave and Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice, is getting plenty of praise.
I’m not confident the notices are strong enough to warrant an awards campaign, but a savvy distributor could manage to get this into the conversation. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
As is tradition every Oscar season on the blog, it’s time to dig a bit deeper into the nominees for Best Picture, Director, and the four acting derbies. These are my Case Of posts where I lay out the merits for and against the 35 contenders in the aforementioned competitions. Yes, that’s 35 individual posts and we start with the 10 hopefuls in BP.
This will occur alphabetically so All Quiet on the Western Front is on deck!
The Case for All Quiet on the Western Front:
Edward Berger’s antiwar epic is the only title that’s won Best Picture before. The 1929-30 ceremony (the 3rd ever Oscars) bestowed best in show to the 1930 version of Erich Maria Remarque’s novel. If we believe BAFTA is a reliable precursor to Academy glory, Front is loaded with a leading 14 nominations. Tied with The Banshees of Inisherin with 9 nods, the pair is second only to Everything Everywhere All at Once‘s 11. This is Netflix’s one and only contender so the streamer has and will be campaigning hard.
The Case Against All Quiet on the Western Front:
The nine mentions are impressive and more than anticipated. However, a couple of misses are key. Not many films end up winning BP that are omitted in Editing and that applies here. Most importantly, Berger did not make the quintet in Director. While there have been recent examples of the directors of BP recipients not making that cut (Ben Affleck for Argo, Peter Farrelly for Green Book, Sian Heder last year with CODA), this seems like the type of project where the filmmaker needed in to have much hope of taking the biggest prize. That’s not the only chink in the armor. Quiet was widely expected to take the Golden Globe statue for foreign feature and lost in an upset to Argentina, 1985. Netflix hasn’t won a BP yet.
Other Nominations:
Adapted Screenplay, International Feature Film, Cinematography, Makeup & Hairstyling, Original Score, Production Design, Sound, Visual Effects
The Verdict:
Quiet appears close to a lock to make noise in International Feature Film (I wouldn’t bet on an Argentina upset on Oscar night). While its haul of nine is laudable, its chances in BP are low-key.
My Case Of posts will continue with Avatar: The Way of Water!
For the other BP Case Of posts, you can find them here:
After starring in last year’s Oscar winning Best Picture CODA, Emilia Jones is back onscreen in two features playing at the Sundance Film Festival. One is Fairyland which I’ll get to in my prediction posts shortly. The other is thriller Cat Person from director Susanna Fogel (who cowrote 2019’s acclaimed coming-of-age dramedy Booksmart).
Based on a short story that generated lots of attention after it was published in The New Yorker, Jones plays a college student in a dangerous online romance with an older man (Nicholas Braun from Succession). Costars include Geraldine Viswanathan, Hope Davis, Michael Gandolfini, Liza Koshy, and Isabella Rossellini.
Early reviews are of the mixed variety with a current 75% rating based on the small sampling via Rotten Tomatoes. This could generate some buzz with audiences after a distributor picks it up and that should occur imminently. I doubt it will follow suit with awards chatter. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Another significant piece of the Oscar prognosticating puzzle is put together on Wednesday when nominations for the 29th Screen Actors Guild (SAG) Awards are dropped. The ceremony’s main prize, it’s important to note, is not Best Picture but Best Ensemble. That means a correlation from the Oscar BP and the top race here is not apples to apples. It is worth noting that half of the last 10 SAG Ensemble victors (Argo, Birdman, Spotlight, Parasite, CODA) did go on to win BP from the Academy. On the other hand, three recent BPs (The Shape of Water, Green Book, Nomadland) didn’t make the SAG quintet at all.
Let’s go through all six categories one by one with my picks and a runner-up call, shall we?
Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture
There are plenty of possibilities including box office hits like Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Elvis, and Top Gun: Maverick. For Panther, the original won Ensemble in 2018 so the sequel materializing is feasible. I wouldn’t discount the sprawling cast of Babylon though middling reviews could hurt it. It’s tempting to pick Glass Onion but I’m hesitant since Knives Out was snubbed in 2019.
Everything Everywhere All at Once and The Fabelmans seem safe. Despite the small call sheet for The Banshees of Inisherin (with just four significant roles), I could see the SAG branch honoring it. I’m also liking The Woman King‘s chances. Women Talking is perhaps the biggest question mark. It has underperformed with precursors. A couple of months ago, I’d have considered it a potential frontrunner to win. Now I wonder if it makes it at all. Nevertheless – here’s my take:
Predicted Nominees:
The Banshees of Inisherin
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
The Woman King
Women Talking
Runner-Up: Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role
In the previous decade, SAG in Actress has matched the Academy 4/5 on six occasions and 3/5 on four. There are no perfect correlations. SAG has shown they will throw in a shocker – Jennifer Aniston in Cake, Sarah Silverman for I Smile Back or Emily Blunt in The Girl on the Train are recent examples. If there’s one here, look out for Naomi Ackie (Whitney Houston: I Wanna Dance with Somebody).
Margot Robbie (Babylon) is currently the one I’ve got in the Academy five (for the moment) that I don’t have here. Ana de Armas (Blonde) is a real threat. If she makes this quintet, look for her Oscar stock to soar. With those possibilities mentioned, my choices are…
Predicted Nominees:
Cate Blanchett, Tár
Viola Davis, The Woman King
Danielle Deadwyler, Till
Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans
Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Runner-Up: Ana de Armas, Blonde
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role
Austin Butler (Elvis), Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin), and Brendan Fraser (The Whale) should all be safe. Bill Nighy (Living) is fourth though I suspect there’s a better chance at SAG leaving him off than the Academy. Then there’s that five spot. It could be Tom Cruise (Top Gun: Maverick), Tom Hanks (A Man Called Otto), Hugh Jackman (The Son), or Paul Mescal (Aftersun). Take your pick. I’m leaning toward the star of the year’s biggest hit. On a side note, there’s been a SAG/Oscar match of 5/5 for the previous two cycles.
Predicted Nominees:
Austin Butler, Elvis
Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick
Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin
Brendan Fraser, The Whale
Bill Nighy, Living
Runner-Up: Paul Mescal, Aftersun
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role
Last year was an anomaly when just 2 of the SAG nominees (Ariana DeBose for West Side Story and The Power of the Dog‘s Kirsten Dunst) scored Oscar nods. The magic number is usually 3 or 4. The wide open nature of this race has been discussed a lot on the blog. Beyond my picks and runner-up, don’t discount Dolly De Leon (Triangle of Sadness), Claire Foy (Women Talking), Stephanie Hsu (Everything Everywhere All at Once), Janelle Monae (Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery), and Carey Mulligan (She Said).
Predicted Nominees:
Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Jessie Buckley, Women Talking
Hong Chau, The Whale
Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin
Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Runner-Up: Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
Like Supporting Actress last year, there was only a 2 for 5 match with Troy Kotsur in CODA and Kodi Smit-McPhee in The Power of the Dog. Usually it’s 4. For 2022, I believe only Ke Huy Quan and Brendan Gleeson are safe assumptions. The remaining three slots should be some combo of Paul Dano (The Fabelmans), Tom Hanks (Elvis), Brian Tyree Henry (Causeway), Judd Hirsch (The Fabelmans), Brian Tyree Henry (Causeway), Brad Pitt (Babylon), and Eddie Redmayne (The Good Nurse) sorting it out.
Predicted Nominees:
Paul Dano, The Fabelmans
Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin
Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin
Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Eddie Redmayne, The Good Nurse
Runner-Up: Brian Tyree Henry, Causeway
Outstanding Performance by a Stunt Ensemble
Don’t discount The Batman or Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, but my quintet is as follows…
Predicted Nominees:
The Batman
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Top Gun: Maverick
The Woman King
Runner-Up: RRR
That equates to these movies generating these numbers:
5 Nominations
The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once
3 Nominations
The Fabelmans, The Woman King
2 Nominations
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Top Gun: Maverick, The Whale, Women Talking
1 Nomination
The Batman, Elvis, The Good Nurse, Living, Tár, Till
On Wednesday evening you can expect a recap of what happens after noms are revealed!
My deep dives into 6 high profile Oscar races reaches the top one with Best Picture. If you missed my posts on Director and the four acting competitions, you can find them here:
At this early November period from 2019-21, here’s how accurate I was with my BP forecast. Three years ago, I correctly called 8 of the 9 eventual nominees. That includes the winner Parasite, 1917, Ford v Ferrari, The Irishman, Jojo Rabbit, Little Women, Marriage Story, and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. The ninth hopeful was Joker and it was listed in Other Possibilities. In the wildly unpredictable 2020, I was right about 5 of 8 with two months left in the calendar – Nomadland (which won), The Father, Mank, Minari, and The Trial of the Chicago 7. Judas and the Black Messiah was named in Other Possibilities while Promising Young Woman and Sound of Metal were not yet in my top 15. In 2021, the Academy went back to a set number of 10 BP nominees. I rightly identified 7 of the 10 with Belfast, Dune, King Richard, Licorice Pizza, Nightmare Alley, The Power of the Dog, and West Side Story. The film that emerged victorious – CODA was not yet predicted but in Other Possibilities. So was Don’t Look Up while Drive My Car wasn’t among the 15.
Moving to 2022 – I can’t recall a year where four sequels were viable for inclusion. That’s where we stand at the moment. The top grosser of the year is Top Gun: Maverick and I do believe the Academy will reward it for bringing older audiences back to multiplexes (and of course for its quality). In a few weeks, we’ll have a better idea about Avatar: The Way of Water. I’m not ready to vault into my ten, but that could change soon. Knives Out missed out on BP in 2019 so I’m skeptical for Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery. And while Black Panther made the lineup in 2018, Wakanda Forever seems like a stretch despite the solid buzz. Nevertheless it’s not crazy to think that 40% of the BP players could be sequels.
On the non-sequel front, we begin with The Fabelmans. Steven Spielberg’s autobiographical coming-of-age tale has been listed at #1 for weeks on the blog. Only one of the filmmaker’s works – 1993’s Schindler’s List – has won BP. Shakespeare in Love was a surprise recipient in 1998 over the favored Saving Private Ryan. Nearly 30 years later, Fabelmans could have the credentials to be the second.
However, the frontrunner at this stage often doesn’t cross the finish line and Spielberg’s latest feels like a soft frontrunner. I could easily envision a scenario where the voters go outside the box with Everything Everywhere All at Once. A24’s multi-genre pic achieved wide acclaim and did great business at the box office. While spring releases rarely make the journey all the way through the awards calendar, Everything could buck that trend.
Other spoilers include The Banshees of Inisherin and Women Talking, which both garnered kudos at film festivals and will have their ardent admirers. I believe that logic also applies to Tár and The Whale though I don’t see either having a shot to win. And we are still waiting to see if Damien Chazelle’s Babylon is as viable as its pedigree suggests (we’ll know in a few days when it screens).
It’s become more common for an international feature film to get in and the two most likely to do so are All Quiet on the Western Front (which might just be Netflix’s most serious hopeful) and Decision to Leave. The reviews for Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu’s Bardo should leave it out (it might not even make the separate international race).
While Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio is the favorite to be Best Animated Feature, I don’t see it breaking into the big dance. It’s probably the only animated title with any sort of chance.
The festival circuit always lessens the viability of some pics. In 2022, I would put the following on that list: Empire of Light, The Son, and Armageddon Time.
The Academy could choose to honor some moneymakers like Elvis and The Woman King (though putting Maverick in could check that box). Till may only show up in Best Actress for Danielle Deadwyler. And it’s tough to know what to make of the upcoming Emancipation considering it’s led by Will Smith (who has some, um, recent history with the ceremony).
Bottom line: there is a lot of uncertainty about BP. I feel fairly confident about The Fabelmans, Everything Everywhere, Women Talking, The Banshees of Inisherin, Top Gun: Maverick,Tár, and The Whale (more than others with that one). We’ll know about Babylon shortly so that leaves two spots. I could definitely see a sequel or a foreign flick jumping up. For now, the 9th and 10th entries go to Triangle of Sadness and She Said. Expect movement as the weeks roll along.
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1 . The Fabelmans (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)
3. Babylon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Women Talking (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 5) (E)
6. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 6) (E)
7. Tár (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Whale (PR: 8) (E)
9. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 9) (E)
10. She Said (PR: 12) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
11. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 11) (E)
12. Decision to Leave (PR: 10) (-2)
13. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 14) (+1)
14. Elvis (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 15) (E)
Stay tuned for estimates on all the races coming up soon!
With two months to go for 2022 releases to make their mark with awards voters, it’s a opportune time to assess the six major Oscar races. That would be Picture, Director, and the four acting derbies.
It begins with Supporting Actor. Over the past couple of years, this has been the category that’s confounded me the most during this juncture in the calendar.
That was a different story three years ago. In late October of 2019, I correctly identified 4 out of the eventual 5 nominees. This included winner Brad Pitt for Once Upon a Time in Hollywood as well as Tom Hanks (A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood), Anthony Hopkins (The Two Popes), and Al Pacino (The Irishman). The other nominee – Joe Pesci for The Irishman – was in my #6 spot.
For the unpredictable year that was 2020 (due to constantly shifting release dates because of COVID), I only named 2 of the 5 hopefuls two months out – Sacha Baron Cohen for The Trial of the Chicago 7 and Leslie Odom Jr. for One Night in Miami. I still had eventual victor Daniel Kaluuya (Judas and the Black Messiah) projected for lead actor until the studio announced him for supporting.
In 2021, I made a point to say that the Supporting Actor derby was wide open in late October. And that was evidenced in my only identifying 1 of the eventual Supporting Actor quintet in the Halloween time frame – Ciaran Hinds in Belfast. I had Troy Kotsur (CODA), who would take the gold statue, in 10th place. Bradley Cooper (Licorice Pizza) was in first place and he missed out. Kodi Smit-McPhee (The Power of the Dog), who made the cut, was in 8th place. His costar Jesse Plemons and J.K. Simmons (Being the Ricardos) weren’t listed at all.
Which brings us to 2022 and at this spooky time of year, I would say this competition is up in the air with no obvious frontrunner. 12 months ago, however, I couldn’t have imagined I’d kick off the speculation with this sentence…
The Supporting Actor discussion starts with Ke Huy Quan.
The 51-year-old actor belongs in the mid 80s cinematic Hall of Fame with his turns as Short Round in Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom and Data in The Goonies. His return to acting in Everything Everywhere All at Once has been met with raves. It’s also undeniable that his win would be a heckuva Academy narrative nearly 40 years after his iconic child performances. I’ve had him listed in first place for weeks and that remains.
In four of the last five years, we’ve witnessed double nominees in Supporting Actor. Last year it was the aforementioned Smit-McPhee and Plemons for The Power of the Dog. In 2020, we had the winner Daniel Kaluuya in Judas and the Black Messiah and his costar Lakeith Stanfield. 2019’s Irishman double duo was Pacino and Pesci. Five years ago, it was Sam Rockwell (who won) and Woody Harrelson for Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri.
Martin McDonagh directed Billboards and his follow-up is The Banshees of Inisherin. Brendan Gleeson has sat in the #2 position for several prediction posts in a row. He’s a threat to take the prize. I believe his costar Barry Keoghan may also get in.
Banshees is not the only viable option for double nominees. Ke Huy Quan’s Doom maker Steven Spielberg has The Fabelmans. Before it screened at the Toronto Film Festival, we wondered whether Paul Dano or Seth Rogen (or both) would be the likely nominee(s). Post screening, scene (just one scene) stealer Judd Hirsch bubbled up while Rogen’s viability dwindled. Dano’s work is understated and certainly not as flashy as Hirsch’s brief turn. That leads me to put Hirsch in with Dano on the outside looking in. I’ll admit it’s a coin flip.
Damien Chazelle’s Babylon screens for critics in two weeks. There’s a trio of possibilities with Brad Pitt, Jovan Adepo, and Tobey Maguire. I’ve had Pitt in my 5 previously. It’s fair to speculate whether his recent tabloid headlines could hinder him. We’ll know more once reviews roll in.
Ben Whishaw in Women Talking is a trendy selection and for good reason. I’m not completely sold as voters could opt to focus only on his female cast members Claire Foy and Jessie Buckley (and maybe others) in Supporting Actress. Yet it feels wrong to keep him out right now.
You have to go back to 2013 to find the last time the five contenders all came from Best Picture nominees. I’m not wild about the fact that my projections currently do. There’s a few names that could get in from movies I’m not putting in BP list. We have Eddie Redmayne in The Good Nurse, Brian Tyree Henry for Causeway, Jeremy Strong or Anthony Hopkins in Armageddon Time, Mark Rylance in Bones and All, Micheal Ward in Empire of Light, Don Cheadle in White Noise, and Tom Hanks in Elvis. Of that group, I’m starting to flirt with the idea of Rylance being the guy. He scored an upset win here with Bridge of Spies in 2015 over Sylvester Stallone in Creed and Bones has its ardent admirers. I wouldn’t discount the Redmayne pick as he’s a Best Actor winner in 2014 for The Theory of Everything who was nominated again the following year with The Danish Girl. If Elvis manages a BP nod (not out of the question), this would increase the inclusion of Hanks. I do have Triangle of Sadness in my BP ten and that could mean a third nomination for Woody Harrelson.
Bottom line: I feel pretty confident about Ke Huy Quan and Brendan Gleeson. Everything everywhere else is up in the air.
With that said, here’s my state of the race:
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)
2. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (E)
3. Ben Whishaw, Women Talking (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Brad Pitt, Babylon (PR: 7) (E)
8. Mark Rylance, Bones and All (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Woody Harrelson, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Eddie Redmayne, The Good Nurse (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Brian Tyree Henry, Causeway
Tom Hanks, Elvis
My deep dive with the Supporting Actress field is next!
On the bright side for Netflix, I have Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio at #1 in Animated Feature where it’s been perched all along. That would mean the streamer could nab its first victory ever in that race.
Now the bad news as my current Best Picture nominees leaves Netflix on the cutting room floor. In 2018, Roma was the first hopeful in the big dance. It was expected to win, but lost to Green Book. 2019 brought double nominees with The Irishman and Marriage Story. Same in 2020 with Mank and The Trial of the Chicago 7. And there were two contenders again last year in Don’t Look Up and The Power of the Dog (a frontrunner until CODA fever emerged).
I had All Quiet on the Western Front in the mix 11 days ago. Yet I’ve had a nagging feeling that another blockbuster not named Top Gun: Maverick will get in. So for the first time, Elvis is in the top ten. That moneymaker spot could also be filled with Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (from Netflix), Avatar: The Way of Water, or Black Panther: Wakanda Forever. Think could also be called the “Second Sequel” slot, I suppose.
Don’t be surprised if Netflix eventually gets back in. Quiet, the aforementioned Onion, Bardo, and Pinocchio are all viable (maybe even White Noise). For now, my BP hopefuls would mean a disappointing nomination morning for the streamer.
She Said received mostly positive notices when it was unveiled Thursday at the New York Film Festival. It could absolutely be a BP contender, but I’m got it just on the outside and feel more comfortable forecasting it as a lone screenplay nominee (I don’t love the current 76% RT meter for it). You’ll note I don’t have any of the cast in my top tens. Perhaps the eventual announcement of category placements could change that.
In other developments:
I’ve decided to move Babylon‘s Margot Robbie back in Best Actress instead of supporting (can we please get that placement announcement??). It means she’s back in and Olivia Colman (Empire of Light) is out.
Bill Nighy’s work in Living returns to Actor five with Diego Calva (Babylon) sliding into sixth position.
With Robbie returning to lead, Dolly De Leon (Triangle of Sadness) is elevated to fifth in Supporting Actress.
My Supporting Actor dual nominee projections of Brendan Gleeson and Barry Keoghan for The Banshees of Inisherin shifts to Paul Dano and Judd Hirsch for The Fabelmans. That means Hirsch rises while Keoghan falls.
You can read all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Fabelmans (Previous Rank: 1) (E)
2. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)
3. Babylon (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Women Talking (PR: 3) (-1)
5. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 5) (E)
6. Tar (PR: 6) (E)
7. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Whale (PR: 8) (E)
9. Elvis (PR: 13) (+4)
10. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 9) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
11. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 10) (-1)
12. She Said (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Decision to Leave (PR: 11) (-3)
15. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Till
The Woman King
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (E)
2. Damien Chazelle, Babylon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sarah Polley, Women Talking (PR: 3) (E)
4. Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 4) (E)
5. Todd Field, Tar (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Edward Berger, All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave (PR: 7) (-1)
9. James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 9) (E)
10. Ruben Ostlund, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 10) (E)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Cate Blanchett, Tar (PR: 1) (E)
2. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Danielle Deadwyler, Till (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans (PR: 4) (E)
5. Margot Robbie, Babylon (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from Supporting
Other Possibilities:
6. Olivia Colman, Empire of Light (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Viola Davis, The Woman King (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Ana de Armas, Blonde (PR: 8) (E)
9. Naomi Ackie, I Wanna Dance with Somebody (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Jennifer Lawrence, Causeway (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Carey Mulligan, She Said
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Brendan Fraser, The Whale (PR: 1) (E)
2. Austin Butler, Elvis (PR: 2) (E)
3. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 3) (E)
4. Hugh Jackman, The Son (PR: 4) (E)
5. Bill Nighy, Living (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Diego Calva, Babylon (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 7) (E)
8. Song Kang-ho, Broker (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Adam Driver, White Noise (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Jeremy Pope, The Inspection (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Will Smith, Emancipation
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Claire Foy, Women Talking (PR: 1) (E)
2. Jessie Buckley, Women Talking (PR: 2) (E)
3. Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Hong Chau, The Whale (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Dolly De Leon, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 6) (E)
7. Nina Hoss, Tar (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Janelle Monae, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Thuso Mbedu, The Woman King (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Margot Robbie, Babylon (moved to Best Actress)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)
2. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (E)
3. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (E)
4. Ben Whishaw, Women Talking (PR: 4) (E)
5. Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Brad Pitt, Babylon (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Woody Harrelson, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Tom Hanks, Elvis (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Brian Tyree Henry, Causeway (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jeremy Strong, Armageddon Time
Micheal Ward, Empire of Light
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (-1)
3. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 3) (E)
4. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 4) (E)
5. Tar (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Babylon (PR: 6) (E)
7. Decision to Leave (PR: 7) (E)
8. Armageddon Time (PR: 8) (E)
9. Empire of Light (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Menu (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Broker
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Women Talking (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Whale (PR: 2) (E)
3. She Said (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 3) (-1)
5. White Noise (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Living (PR: 6) (E)
7. Till (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Bones and All (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Son (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
All Quiet on the Western Front
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 1) (E)
2. Turning Red (PR: 2) (E)
3. Strange World (PR: 3) (E)
4. Wendell and Wild (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Marcel the Shell with Shoes On (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Bad Guys (PR: 8) (+2)
7. The Sea Beast (PR: 6) (-1)
8. My Father’s Dragon (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Minions: The Rise of Gru (PR: 9) (E)
10. Lightyear (PR: 10) (E)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 1) (E)
2. Decision to Leave (PR: 2) (E)
3. Close (PR: 3) (E)
4. Bardo (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Saint Omer (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Klondike (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Holy Spider (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Alcarras (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Argentina, 1985 (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Corsage (PR: 10) (E)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Descendant (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Navalny (PR: 3) (E)
4. All That Breathes (PR: 4) (E)
5. Fire of Love (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Territory (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Good Night Oppy (PR: 7) (E)
8. Moonage Daydream (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Last Flight Home (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Aftershock (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Sr.
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Empire of Light (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (E)
4. Bardo (PR: 5) (+1)
5. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 6) (E)
7. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 8) (E)
9. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 9) (E)
10. Emancipation (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Batman
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Elvis (PR: 2) (E)
3. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 3) (E)
4. Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Corsage (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Woman King (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Fabelmans (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Living (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Blonde (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Amsterdam
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)
2. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Fabelmans (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Babylon (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Women Talking (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Elvis (PR: 6) (E)
7. Tar (PR: 9) (+2)
8. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Bardo (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Decision to Leave
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Whale (PR: 1) (E)
2. Elvis (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Babylon (PR: 2) (-1)
4. The Batman (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Woman King (PR: 10) (+3)
8. X (PR: 8) (E)
9. Blonde (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Three Thousand Years of Longing (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Amsterdam
Corsage
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (E)
2. Babylon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Empire of Light (PR: 3) (E)
4. Tar (PR: 6) (+2)
5. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Women Talking (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Bardo (PR: 10) (+2)
9. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Top Gun: Maverick
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)
2. “Nobody Like U” from Turning Red (PR: 2) (E)
3. “Naatu Naatu” from RRR (PR: 4) (+1)
4. “Applause” from Tell It Like a Woman (PR: 3) (-1)
5. “Stand Up” from Till (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Carolina” from Where the Crawdads Sing (PR: 5) (-1)
7. “This is a Life” from Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 8) (+1)
8. “New Body Rhumba” from White Noise (PR: 7) (-1)
9. “On My Way” from Marry Me (PR: 6) (-3)
10. “Love Is Not Love” from Bros (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
“I Ain’t Worried” from Top Gun: Maverick
“Heartbeat” from Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Elvis (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Bardo (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Fabelmans (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Everything Everything All at Once (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Empire of Light (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Batman (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
All Quiet on the Western Front
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)
2. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 2) (E)
3. Elvis (PR: 3) (E)
4. Babylon (PR: 4) (E)
5. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Batman (PR: 6) (E)
7. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 7) (E)
8. Nope (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Fabelmans (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Bardo (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Thirteen Lives
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 1) (E)
2. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 2) (E)
3. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 3) (E)
4. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness (PR: 5) (+1)
5. The Batman (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 8) (+1)
8. RRR (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Good Night Oppy (PR: 9) (E)
10. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Nope
That equates to these movies getting these numbers of nominations:
10 Nominations
Babylon
9 Nominations
The Fabelmans
8 Nominations
Everything Everywhere All at Once
7 Nominations
Women Talking
6 Nominations
The Banshees of Inisherin, Elvis
5 Nominations
Tar, Top Gun: Maverick, The Whale
3 Nominations
All Quiet on the Western Front, Avatar: The Way of Water, Bardo, Triangle of Sadness
2 Nominations
The Batman, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Empire of Light, Till, Turning Red
1 Nomination
All That Breathes, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, Close, Corsage, Decision to Leave, Descendant, Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, Fire of Love, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Living, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris, Navalny, RRR, Saint Omer, She Said, The Son, Strange World, Tell It Like a Woman, Wendell and Wild, White Noise
In an alternative universe, Emancipation might be in my top 10 predicted Best Picture nominees. I could potentially be discussing Will Smith’s chances of being the first back to back acting winner since Tom Hanks in 1993 and 1994.
I didn’t think this alternative universe could be a potential reality in the 2022 awards season. In 2021, Apple TV beat Netflix and others to the punch as CODA was the inaugural streaming Best Picture winner. For a while, Martin Scorsese’s Killers of the Flower Moon appeared to be Apple’s best shot at making it two years in a row. That’s until it got pushed to 2023. In recent weeks, there was speculation that Ridley Scott’s Napoleon starring Joaquin Phoenix could make a jump to 2022. It wasn’t to be.
This has left Apple without a legit across the board Oscar player… until maybe today. Why? The streamer announced that Antoine Fuqua’s historical drama Emancipation will hit theaters for an awards qualifying run on December 2nd and then be available for home viewing on December 9th. The trailer was unveiled this morning.
And in case you’re still wondering why I’m skeptical… two words: The Slap. Yes, the slap heard around the globe when Chris Rock presented Best Documentary Feature at the Academy Awards and cracked a joke about Jada Pinkett Smith. And, of course, slap provider Will Smith giving his acceptance speech a few minutes later when he was victorious in Best Actor for King Richard.
Since then, many of Smith’s planned projects have entered turnaround status. Emancipation, in which he plays a slave who joins the Union Army, was already filmed. And Apple made the surprising decision in early October to get it out two months later. This surely means Smith will be subject to interviews where he’ll address The Slap sooner than later.
So… the obvious question: can Smith get nominated? Can the film itself do so in other categories? Even though the star resigned from the Academy in the aftermath of the incident, he can still be nominated (and he can attend if invited by other members). So while the short answer is yes… the real answer is more complicated.
My gut is that Smith’s work in Emancipation would have to be undeniably awards worthy to make the final five. Even that could be a stretch. Time heals controversies and not much time has passed. As for the film itself, it could surely garner nods from Best Picture on down (I’m curious if Ben Foster gets any chatter for Supporting Actor). Yet it starts off at a unique disadvantage.
We won’t know until reviews start surfacing and that could be a few weeks. I can only assume Apple will give this a major push for consideration. It’s a campaign that is an uphill battle for reasons unfathomable just a few months ago.
Nikyatu Jusu’s directorial debut Nanny first drew viewers earlier this year at Sundance and will be screened in Toronto next week. Anna Diop stars as a Senegalese caretaker working for an affluent NYC family. Their arrangement appears, judging from the trailer, to morph into arthouse horror territory. Costars include Michelle Monaghan, Sinqua Walls, and Morgan Spector.
After its festival run, Nanny is slated for a limited November 23rd theatrical run before its streaming rollout on December 16th via Amazon Prime. Reviews are continuing to pop up as it plays other fests throughout the country and the Rotten Tomatoes score is 90%. It won the US Dramatic Grand Jury Prize at Sundance. The last two winners of that award were the Best Picture nominated Minari in 2020 and last year’s CODA which, of course, took home the Academy’s biggest prize. I would also note that the five winners before that came nowhere near a BP nod.
Diop is receiving raves along with appreciation for Jusu’s original screenplay. Nanny would really need some high profile love from critics groups before I’d consider entering this into Academy chatter. It isn’t outside the realm of possibility, but I wouldn’t count on it. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
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