Best Picture 2013: The Final Five

My blog series continues with speculation on what a Best Picture lineup of five would have looked like in the years since the format changed to up to 10 nominees. That began in 2009 and if you missed my previous posts covering 2009-2012, you can peruse them here:

Best Picture 2009: The Final Five

Best Picture 2010: The Final Five

Best Picture 2011: The Final Five

Best Picture 2012: The Final Five

In our year of 2013, the magic number was 9 contenders. We know that Steve McQueen’s 12 Years a Slave would have been included since a win in Best Picture was among its nine nominations. It also took Director, Supporting Actress (Lupita Nyong’o), and Adapted Screenplay. So what else would’ve made the cut? Let’s speculate, shall we?

American Hustle

David O. Russell’s disco era crime pic tied for the most nods with 10, including Director and four acting mentions for Christian Bale, Amy Adams, Bradley Cooper, and Jennifer Lawrence. Despite the double digit nomination haul, it ended the night with zero victories.

Does It Make the Final Five?

Yes. Even with the goose egg, the sheer number of nods indicates making the quintet.

Captain Phillips

With Tom Hanks as the title character in the true life Somali pirate drama, Paul Greengrass’s tense thriller scored 6 overall nods. In addition to Pic, Supporting Actor (Barkhad Abdi), Adapted Screenplay, both Sound races, and Film Editing were in the mix. Like Hustle, there were no wins.

Does It Make the Final Five?

No. With no nods for directing or Hanks’s performance (which was a huge snub), I think this would’ve been on the outside looking in.

Dallas Buyers Club

While our first two selections went 0 for 16, this mid 80s set AIDS drama won half of its six nominations – Actor (Matthew McConaughey), Supporting Actor (Jared Leto), and Makeup and Hairstyling. The other two mentions were Original Screenplay and Film Editing.

Does It Make the Final Five?

Yes, but it’s a close call. The three gold statues put it over the edge in my opinion despite not landing a directing slot for the late Jean-Marc Vallee.

Gravity

Alfonso Cuaron’s space thriller tied Hustle with 10 nominations. Unlike Hustle, it won 70% of its possibilities: Director, Score, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, Cinematography, Film Editing, and Visual Effects. Sandra Bullock was nominated for Best Actress and it got a Production Design nod.

Does It Make the Final Five?

Yes. Even without a screenplay nom, this would’ve been in contention and it was probably the runner-up to Slave considering the Cuaron win.

Her

Spike Jonze’s quirky romantic drama won Original Screenplay and was up for Score, Song, and Production Design.

Does It Make the Final Five?

No because it missed out on key precursors including Director, Actor (Joaquin Phoenix), and Film Editing.

Nebraska

Alexander Payne’s B&W road dramedy nabbed five other nods for direction, Actor (Bruce Dern), Supporting Actress (June Squibb), Original Screenplay, and Cinematography. It didn’t emerge victorious for any.

Does It Make the Final Five?

No, but I struggled with this one (it’s sixth). Film Editing is often the biggest indicator of a BP nom and that’s part of the reason I gave Dallas Buyers Club a slight edge.

Philomena

Judi Dench received a Best Actress nod for this adoption drama. Adapted Screenplay and Score were the other mentions as its four overall are the least of the BP hopefuls.

Does It Make the Final Five?

No. The Academy loves Dench. However, that wouldn’t have been enough for this to survive a cut to five.

The Wolf of Wall Street

Martin Scorsese’s raunchy tale of 80s excess landed Leonardo DiCaprio and Jonah Hill acting spots. The direction and Adapted Screenplay were up as well. It won none.

Does It Make the Final Five?

Yes though I will say I don’t think it’s automatic. Wolf‘s complete lack of nominations in the tech categories is a bit of a surprise, but ultimately I don’t think the voters would’ve ignored this.

So my quintet for 2013 would be:

12 Years a Slave

American Hustle

Dallas Buyers Club

Gravity

The Wolf of Wall Street

2014 is up next and will be on the blog soon!

Bullet Train Review

David Leitch has done this cartoonishly bloody and dripping with sarcasm business before with John Wick and Deadpool 2. In Bullet Train, having Brad Pitt loaded for the quipping is a plus. The trip is rockiest in the beginning leg, but picks up steam for quite some time. In the later stages, you may be asking why we aren’t there yet with the climax.

Pitt’s assassin who goes by Ladybug boards the title mode of transportation with simple instructions to boost a briefcase. Hurtling at breakneck speed from Tokyo to Kyoto, he soon finds that many other types who share his profession are along for the ride. This includes “twins” Tangerine (Aaron Taylor-Johnson) and Lemon (Brian Tyree Henry). Their codenames may suggest Prince backup dancers, but they’re tasked with transporting the drug addled son (Logan Lerman) of a crime lord named White Death (Michael Shannon) back home. And they also want that briefcase.

Unlike Pulp Fiction where we are still collectively wondering what was in that case, we find out quickly here. Ladybug and his fruit monikered colleagues aren’t the only ones seeking it. There’s Prince (Joey King), who’s dressed not as a backup dancer but as a schoolgirl who fools many with her innocent appearance. Kimura (Andrew Koji) is a killer burdened with a young son in danger away from the tracks. There’s more – Zazie Beetz turns up as does Hiroyuki Sanada as Kimura’s elder (he’s called The Elder). Multiplatinum rapper Bad Bunny is The Wolf, who is avenging a family massacre that could have used cleanup from Harvey Keitel’s Winston Wolfe in the aforementioned Pulp. There’s cameos I won’t spoil. I will say they add little other than fleeting seconds of unexpected recognition.

Bullet Train gleefully revels in its violence. It kind of feels like a throwback to 90s excess that Tarantino’s landmark sophomore feature helped inspire. That’s not always a bad thing as the slicing and dicing is done with the visual flair we expect from Leitch. The screenplay from Zak Olkewicz is one of those where nearly every character is eventually connected. I found myself straining to care about those connections.  It takes a few minutes before Train gets up to speed. Yet Pitt’s considerable charisma and his support staff (particularly Henry and Taylor-Johnson) help alleviate a lot of those narrative bumps. So was the ride worth it? That’s debatable though I’d say there’s worse fates than taking it.

*** (out of four)

Oscar Predictions: Bullet Train

OK, no one’s saying that David Leitch’s Bullet Train was stationing itself for a Best Picture nomination. As for down the line tech nods, it’s at least worth discussing. The action comedy from the John Wick and Deadpool 2 maker stars Brad Pitt and is out Friday.

The review embargo has lifted and Bullet is currently at a middling 60% on Rotten Tomatoes. I would say the only races where nods seemed feasible were Sound and Visual Effects and I don’t envision either occurring. If the Academy were to ever put in a  category for Best Stunt Work (which isn’t a bad idea), the critical reaction indicates this might be in the mix. Absent that, don’t look for this Train anywhere near an awards show.

Leading man Pitt could, however, still find himself in the 2022 mix for Supporting Actor (we think it’s supporting) with Damien Chazelle’s Babylon. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Bullet Train Box Office Prediction

Sony Pictures is hoping moviegoers catch the Bullet Train when it debuts August 5th. The action comedy comes from John Wick maker David Leitch with Brad Pitt headlining as an assassin. The supporting cast includes Joey King, Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Brian Tyree Henry, Andrew Koji, Hiroyuki Sanada, Michael Shannon, Zazie Beetz, Logan Lerman, Bad Bunny, and Pitt’s recent The Lost City costar Sandra Bullock (in a role first slated for Lady Gaga).

The Japan set stunt fest is hoping to turn out an adult audience ready for original programming in a summer filled mostly with plenty of sequels and superheroes.

Since starting a franchise with Wick in 2014, Leitch followed up with Atomic Blonde. It was a box office disappointment that debuted with just over $18 million. Train should have no trouble getting past that number. However, it won’t reach the earnings of his last two pictures which were built-in franchise entries: Deadpool 2 and Fast and Furious spin-off Hobbs & Shaw. 

Nope was able to reach mid 40s and it had the advantage of Jordan Peele’s brand. This will rely mostly on Pitt’s star power. I’m curious to see how word-of-mouth is in the coming days and that could increase or decrease my projection. My hunch is that mid 2os is the floor and low 40s could be the ceiling. I wouldn’t be surprised if it comes toward the lower end of that spectrum, and I’ll say high 20s to low 30s is where this lands.

Bullet Train opening weekend prediction: $29.7 million

For my Easter Sunday prediction, click here:

Easter Sunday Box Office Prediction

Best Picture 2011: The Final Five

My third write-up in my Best Picture: Final Five series brings us to 2011. As a reminder, the concept is fairly simple. After 2008, the Academy wanted to broaden the amount of nominees in the big race beyond a set five. For 2009 and 2010, that number was a firm 10.

However, in 2011, the rules changed so that there could be anywhere from 5-10 BP contenders. Until the Academy reverted back to 10 definite hopefuls last year, that number fluctuated between 8-9. For the inaugural year with the changeup, it was 9.

This post series engages in revisionist and speculative history. What if the rule of five BP nominees had never been altered? What would’ve made the cut? What would wind up on the cutting room floor? In 2011, we know it would’ve included the winner – Michel Havanavicius’s French black and white silent dramedy The Artist. 

What else? Let’s consider the other eight one by one…

The Descendants 

Alexander Payne’s works had received Academy attention before with 2002’s About Schmidt and 2004’s Sideways. This George Clooney led dramedy nabbed four additional mentions for its star, director, editing, and adapted screenplay – where it won.

Does It Make the Final Five?

Yes. The screenplay victory and inclusion in key races such as directing and editing seal the deal.

Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close

The rare BP nominee that received only one other nod – Max Von Sydow in Supporting Actor. This was, to be kind, a unique and unexpected nod as Stephen Daldry’s 9/11 themed drama with Tom Hanks and Sandra Bullock managed just a 45% Rotten Tomatoes rating as well as subpar box office.

Does It Make the Final Five?

No. The fact that it made the final 9 is still pretty shocking and is widely considered an underserving inclusion.

The Help

Based on a huge bestseller, Tate Taylor’s The Help was beloved by audiences to the tune of $169 million at the box office. Beyond Picture, it received three other nods: Actress (Viola Davis), Supporting Actress (Jessica Chastain), and another Supporting Actress nod and win for Octavia Spencer.

Does It Make the Final Five?

It’s awfully tempting to say yes given its popularity, but no. I’d feel more comfortable putting it in the final five had it nabbed a screenplay or editing or directing nod (even just one of them).

Hugo

Martin Scorsese’s family adventure garnered the most nominations on Oscar night (11), one more than The Artist. That includes Director, Adapted Screenplay, Score, Costume Design, Editing, and wins for its Sound Editing and Mixing, Art Direction, Cinematography, and Costume Design.

Does It Make the Final Five?

Yes and quite easily with that impressive haul.

Midnight in Paris

This was a critical and commercial comeback for Woody Allen and it won Original Screenplay with additional nods for Allen’s direction and the art direction.

Does It Make the Final Five?

Yes. While he’s basically blackballed from Hollywood in 2022, it was a different story 11 years ago for Allen and the Academy would’ve rewarded him for this return to form.

Moneyball

Bennett Miller followed up Capote with this acclaimed baseball drama that received five additional nominations – Actor (Brad Pitt), Supporting Actor (Jonah Hill), Adapted Screenplay, Sound Mixing, and Editing. It ended up going 0 for 6.

Does It Make the Final Five?

Yes. As I’ve explained before, Picture and Director rarely matched 5/5 before 2009. This is my pick for the BP nominee where the filmmaker didn’t make the cut.

The Tree of Life

Terrence Malick’s arty and ambitious saga served as a comeback for the legendary auteur. In addition to BP, Malick was in the quintet for his direction as was the cinematography.

Does It Make the Final Five?

No. It’s not out of the question that it might’ve, but its minimal two other nods cause doubt.

War Horse

Steven Spielberg’s equine related battle flick is one of his least discussed BP contenders, but it did gallop into contention with five other mentions for Score, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, Art Direction, and Cinematography.

Does It Make the Final Five?

No. Even with the pedigree, missing Editing and Screenplay is a typically dependable telltale sign.

So that means my final five from 2011 consists of:

The Artist

The Descendants

Hugo

Midnight in Paris

Moneyball 

My take on 2012 will be available in short order!

My entries for 2009 and 2010 can be found here:

Best Picture 2009: The Final Five

Best Picture 2010: The Final Five

Best Picture 2009: The Final Five

And now for a new category on my blog that will update itself yearly after 13 initial posts covering 2009-21. It’s a simple concept. In 2009 – the Academy shifted their rules from a set amount of five Best Picture nominees to 10. That lasted for 2 years. In 2011, the number could fluctuate anywhere from 5-10. In most years, the magic number was 8 or 9 (it was never less than 8). Last year, the big race reverted back to a definite 10.

So… what if it hadn’t? What if 5 nominees was never altered? Well, Oscar speculators like yours truly would have to write posts predicting what would’ve been the final five. So that’s what this is all about.

Naturally it begins with 2009. Before that, something from 2008 might’ve contributed to the shift when The Dark Knight famously missed BP even though it was a critical darling and box office smash. A shift to 10 allowed popcorn favorites and smaller titles to make the cut. And they did.

When it comes to whittling down from 10 (or later 8 or 9) to five, there’s plenty of factors in play. What else did the movie get nominated for or win? Some races are more important than others like Director and Editing or the Screenplay derbies.

Yet it’s far from an exact science. This is educated guesswork based on Oscar history. I’ll walk through each title and give an ultimate Yes or No on whether it makes the five. The first is automatic and that’s whatever won. In 2009 that honor belonged to…

The Hurt Locker

Does It Make the Final Five?

Yes because it won Best Picture.

The other 9? That’s where it gets interesting. Let’s take them alphabetically, shall we?

Avatar

When Oscar nominations rolled out near the beginning of 2010, James Cameron’s 3D sensation was basking in the glow of becoming the biggest movie ever. That meant he was breaking his own record from 13 years earlier with Titanic. Cameron was nominated for Director – losing to ex-wife Kathryn Bigelow for Locker. The film also didn’t manage a Screenplay nod though Cameron is known more for his technical prowess than writing skills. On the tech side it managed 7 nods and won three (Art Direction, Cinematography, Visual Effects). So…

Does It Make the Final Five?

Yes. Though it lost a number of its nods to Locker, the gargantuan grosses would’ve been enough for it to advance.

The Blind Side

Sandra Bullock’s crowd pleasing football drama made her an Oscar winner. Yet those are the only two nominations it received as it couldn’t make the Adapted Screenplay shortlist. In fact, Avatar and this are the only two BP nominees not to see their scripts mentioned.

Does It Make the Final Five?

No. This is a perfect example of a blockbuster getting in due to the expansion that wouldn’t have with just five.

District 9

Neill Blomkamp’s acclaimed sci-fi tale was a surprise summer hit and he’s yet to replicate its mix of audience and critical appreciation. It was nominated in three other races – Adapted Screenplay, Visual Effects, and Film Editing. No wins.

Does It Make the Final Five?

This one is actually close for me. The screenplay and editing nods certainly make it doable. If it had landed Director, I’d probably say yes. A bit of a coin flip, but I’ll land on No.

An Education

The coming-of-age pic scored Carey Mulligan an Actress nod as well as Adapted Screenplay.

Does It Make the Final Five?

It’s not totally out of the realm of possibility that it could’ve snuck in, but gotta go No. It missed a Golden Globe nod for example and a lot of the focus was on Mulligan’s work.

Inglourious Basterds

Quentin Tarantino’s WWII opus was his return to significant awards attention 15 years following Pulp Fiction. In addition to the Pic nod, he was nominated for his direction and screenplay (losing both to Locker). Other nominations: Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, Cinematography, Film Editing, and a Supporting Actor victory for Christoph Waltz.

Does It Make the Final Five?

Yes. The 8 nominations are enough to indicate as much.

Precious

The breakthrough drama from Lee Daniels scored five other mentions for Directing, Gabourey Sidibe in Actress, Mo’Nique in Supporting Actress (a victory), Adapted Screenplay (another win), and Editing.

Does It Make the Final Five?

Yes. The screenplay win puts it over the top.

A Serious Man

The Coen Brothers dark comedy received just one other nod for their screenplay with acclaimed lead Michael Stuhlbarg missing the Best Actor cut.

Does It Make the Final Five?

Even with the love for its brotherly makers – No.

Up

As far as I’m concerned, the Pixar masterpiece’s first few minutes should win Best Picture every year. The tearjerker was a rare animated Best Picture contender and it contended for four others. It obviously won Animated Feature as well as Original Score in addition to mentions in Original Screenplay and Sound Editing.

Does It Make the Final Five?

I’m saying No, but I’m not sure of that. I’d probably put it sixth.

Up in the Air

Our other Up contender is Jason Reitman’s workplace dramedy which received six nods. The others were Director, Actor (George Clooney), Supporting Actress (both Vera Farmiga and Anna Kendrick), and Adapted Screenplay.

Does It Make the Final Five?

Yes. While it retrieved no statues, I think it would’ve just edged other hopefuls such as Up or District 9.

So that means if 2009 had just five Best Picture nominees, I believe they would’ve been:

The Hurt Locker (winner)

Avatar

Inglourious Basterds

Precious

Up in the Air 

An important note – the movies here match the five Best Director nominees. That’s rare and that will be rare in subsequent postings on years that follow. From 2000-2008 that only occurred twice (2005 and 2008). So don’t get used to it.

I shall return soon with my rumblings and final five for 2010!

The Lost City Review

Coasting on the adequate chemistry of its two leads, The Lost City might stick with you for about as long as the romance paperbacks penned by Sandra Bullock’s character. In other words – not for long but you won’t feel guilty while it lasts. This isn’t a remake of 1984’s Romancing the Stone though it certainly feels thematically similar.

Like Kathleen Turner’s character in that action comedy from nearly four decades ago, Loretta Sage (Bullock) writes steamy love stories while her own existence is a lonely one. She’s recently widowed from her archaeologist husband whose work influenced her novels. After prodding from her determined publisher Beth (Da’Vine Joy Randolph), Loretta reluctantly embarks on a book tour alongside Alan (Channing Tatum). He’s the cover model for her bibliography (think Fabio) and he’s known as Dash. His fame eclipses the author and she’s prepared to kill him off and retire to her bathtub with a glass of Chardonnay.

The plan hits a snag when kooky billionaire Abigail Fairfax (Daniel Radcliffe) snags Loretta. He’s convinced she can decipher a code to a lost treasure – make that Lost City – mentioned in one of her books. The locale is a remote one in The Atlantic so Alan pursues her along with the mysterious man of action Jack Trainer (Brad Pitt). Think of him as a bit like Michael Douglas’s lead in Romancing without actually being the lead.

Decked out in a glittery purple onesie that she wouldn’t dare don had she known kidnapping would be involved, what you expect is what you get from Bullock. Same goes for Tatum. Fortunately for us, they’re both better than serviceable. The supporting players elevate the material at times, especially Radcliffe playing against type and Randolph (so good in Dolemite Is My Name) providing solid comic relief.

Directed by brothers Adam and Aaron Nee, The Lost City often feels built from the spare parts of superior vehicles. It never crashes and burns due to the talent involved. Both Loretta and Alan have moments searching for the right words as their plot mandated courtship blossoms. I don’t have to search too hard – this is passable.

**1/2 (out of four)

April 22-24 Box Office Predictions

It’s likely to be a top heavy family friendly box office chart this weekend as DreamWorks Animation’s The Bad Guys makes a play for the #1 spot. The well-reviewed action comedy could find itself in a battle with the second weekend of Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore (after a lackluster start) and the third frame of Sonic the Hedgehog 2. The adults have fresh product to choose from as well. There’s the Viking epic The Northman from director Robert Eggers and Nicolas Cage headlining the meta comedy The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent. My detailed prediction posts on the trio of newbies can be accessed here:

The Bad Guys Box Office Prediction

The Northman Box Office Prediction

The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent Box Office Prediction

Considering Beasts easily had a Wizarding World franchise low opening (more on that below), even a mid teens start for The Bad Guys could mean it’ll manage to nab first place. If Sonic fell nearly 60% in its sophomore frame, I’m saying Beasts plummets in the mid 60s and it could be a close contest for second between the two holdovers.

The Northman and Talent should hold the four and spots and maybe not in that order. That’s how I have it, however, with Northman just surpassing double digits and Talent falling just under. Both features have solid critical support and could overperform, but I’m being cautious with each.

And with that, my take on the weekend ahead:

1. The Bad Guys

Predicted Gross: $16.7 million

2. Sonic the Hedgehog 2

Predicted Gross: $15.5 million

3. Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore

Predicted Gross: $15.1 million

4. The Northman

Predicted Gross: $10.3 million

5. The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent

Predicted Gross: $7.9 million

Box Office Results (April 15-17)

It was an Easter to forget for Warner Bros as Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore remained a secret to many. The third entry in the series took in a lowly $42.1 million, below my $48.1 million projection. That’s about $20 million under 2018 predecessor The Crimes of Grindelwald and it genuinely brings into question whether the studio will move forward with planned fourth and fifth installments.

Sonic the Hedgehog 2 dropped to second with $29.3 million and a larger than anticipated 59% drop. I was more generous at $35.8 million. The video game based sequel is up to a nevertheless impressive $118 million after 10 days.

The Sandra Bullock/Channing Tatum rom com The Lost City was third with $6.2 million, on target with my $6.3 million take. Total is $78 million.

Everything Everywhere All at Once increased its screen count by nearly 1000 venues and boasted a 2% increase in weekend #2 with $6.1 million (I said $5.5 million). The potential awards contender has made $17 million.

Mark Wahlberg’s faith-based and fact based drama Father Stu opened in fifth with a muted $5.4 million from Friday to Sunday and $7.7 million since its Wednesday debut. That’s on pace with my respective takes of $5.7 million and $8.5 million.

Morbius was sixth with $4.7 million, a tad ahead of my $4.3 million prediction for $65 million overall.

Jake Gyllenhaal’s Ambulance continued to stall with $4 million (I went with $4.5 million) for a two-week tally of only $15 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

April 15-17 Box Office Predictions

**Blogger’s Note (04/13): Updated to include Everything Everywhere All at Once in the top five after finding out it is expanding to approximately 2000 screens from its current 1250

Warner Bros is hoping for good returns from a potentially fading franchise as Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore debuts this Easter weekend. We also have the Mark Wahlberg led faith-based drama Father Stu as it hopes to capitalize on the holiday. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on both of them here:

Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore Box Office Prediction

Father Stu Box Office Prediction

I have Dumbledore conjuring up about $15 million less than 2018 predecessor The Crimes of Grindelwald. The gross just north of $50 million should be enough to nab it the #1 slot with Sonic the Hedgehog 2 (after a terrific start) sliding to second. The video game adapted sequel may lose around half its audience.

Father Stu is a bit of a head scratcher. It could over perform. With a Wednesday premiere, my mid single digits Friday to Sunday estimate puts it in fourth just behind The Lost City. 

Ambulance and Morbius, both struggling, might battle it out for the five spot. And with that, my take on the top 7:

1. Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore

Predicted Gross: $48.1 million

2. Sonic the Hedgehog 2

Predicted Gross: $35.8 million

3. The Lost City

Predicted Gross: $6.3 million

4. Father Stu

Predicted Gross: $5.7 million (Friday to Sunday); $8.5 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

5. Everything Everywhere All at Once

Predicted Gross: $5.5 million

6. Ambulance

Predicted Gross: $4.5 million

7. Morbius

Predicted Gross: $4.3 million

Box Office Results (April 8-10)

Paramount had plenty to celebrate as Sonic the Hedgehog 2 posted the high score with a better than anticipated $72.1 million. That’s nearly $10 million ahead of my $62.5 million prediction. You can bet a third installment is already being planned as this grossed more from Friday to Sunday than the 2020 original took in during the long President’s Day weekend.

Morbius was second with a steep 74% tumble in its sophomore outing with $10.2 million, a bit shy of my $11.2 million projection. The vampire tale is not bringing in new blood after a weak beginning.

The Lost City was third with $9 million (I said $8 million) and the Sandra Bullock comedy stands at $68 million with $100 million in its sights.

Jake Gyllenhaal’s action flick Ambulance stalled in fourth with only $8.6 million, well below my generous $13.7 million estimate. The Michael Bay directed enterprise (which earned decent reviews) couldn’t find a crowd as moviegoers may simply wait until streaming.

The Batman made $6.4 million and I incorrectly had it outside the top five. The grand tally is $358 million.

Finally, the critically heralded Everything Everywhere All at Once was sixth with $6 million. While not reaching my guesstimate of $8.4 million, the trippy sci-fi pic had the second best per theater average on its 1200+ screens.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

April 8-10 Box Office Predictions

Video game based sequel Sonic the Hedgehog 2, Michael Bay’s action thriller Ambulance with Jake Gyllenhaal, and critically hailed sci-fi comedy Everything Everywhere All at Once all debut this Friday. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the trio here:

Sonic the Hedgehog 2 Box Office Prediction

Ambulance Box Office Prediction

Everything Everywhere All at Once Box Office Prediction

Sonic should have no trouble hitting #1 and I have it scoring in the high 50s to low 60s (about the same as its 2020 predecessor). While there is no mystery for what will be on top, the number two slot could get interesting.

Morbius had a ho-hum start (especially for its genre) and I suspect its weak C+ Cinemascore could mean a sophomore drop between 65-70%. If that occurs, Ambulance should manage a runner-up start.

The real wild card might be Everything, which has had sizzling per theater averages in limited release. I’ve got it just under double digits for fourth, but it could over perform.

The Lost City should fall from 2nd to 5th with the newbies being ushered in. Here’s how I see it breaking down:

1. Sonic the Hedgehog 2 

Predicted Gross: $62.5 million

2. Ambulance 

Predicted Gross: $13.7 million

3. Morbius

Predicted Gross: $11.2 million

4. Everything Everywhere All at Once

Predicted Gross: $8.4 million

5. The Lost City

Predicted Gross: $8 million

Box Office Results (April 1-3)

It might be the third best premiere of 2021, but the $39 million earned by Morbius is far from impressive. The Jared Leto vampiric superhero tale (in which most of the reviews said it kinda sucked) came in under my $45.8 million estimate. As mentioned, I look for it to fade quickly.

The Lost City fell to second with $14.7 million. For a pic of its genre, the Sandra Bullock/Channing Tatum adventure comedy’s 52% dip is a little high. I projected $16.4 million. It’s made $54 million in ten days.

The Batman was third with $11 million compared to my $12 million take and the DC juggernaut is up to $349 million.

Uncharted was fourth with $3.6 million (I said $3.1 million) for $138 million overall.

Jujutsu Kaisen 0 was fifth with $1.9 million. I incorrectly had it outside the top five as the tally is $29 million.

Finally, RRR: Rise, Roar, Revolt tumbled 83% for $1.6 million in sixth. Total is $11 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…