Dear Evan Hansen Box Office Prediction

The film adaptation of the Tony Award winning musical drama Dear Evan Hansen hits theaters September 24. Directed by Stephen Chbosky (who made the 2012’s acclaimed indie The Perks of Being a Wallflower and 2017’s blockbuster Wonder), Hansen recasts Ben Platt in the title role. The supporting cast features Amy Adams, Julianne Moore, Kaitlyn Dever, and Amandla Stenberg.

Premiering at the Toronto Film Festival, the cinematic version has not garnered the same kudos that it did on Broadway. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 47% and many are griping about Platt (now in his late 20s) portraying a high schooler.

I might be a little more optimistic if Hansen had Oscar vibes going for it, but that’s been silenced by the critics. That said, there is a built-in audience familiar with the play and that could help. The same could have been said for this summer’s In the Heights, which majorly underperformed.

My projection is that this doesn’t quite reach double digits.

Dear Evan Hansen opening weekend prediction: $8.6 million

Oscar Predictions: The Humans

Adapting his own Tony Award winning play, Stephen Karam’s The Humans has debuted at the Toronto Film Festival. The initial buzz is encouraging for Oscar consideration. A Thanksgiving drama that critics are already calling a different kind of horror experience, the ensemble includes Beanie Feldstein, Steven Yeun, Jayne Houdyshell, Richard Jenkins, Amy Schumer, and June Squibb.

Coming as no real surprise, it’s Houdyshell (the only holdover from Broadway) and Jenkins who stand the best shots at acting recognition. Jenkins is a two-time nominee (once in lead for 2008’s The Visitor and in supporting for 2017’s The Shape of Water). Houdyshell is a newcomer to the dance. Based on early chatter, I suspect both have excellent shots in their respective supporting fields.

It is possible that the dark material (even the praising write-ups call it cold) could prevent The Humans from reaching Picture. However, I feel better about its chances now that it’s screened. Same goes for Adapted Screenplay. If it really catches the fancy of the Academy, the leftover effect could even be Karam making a bid for his direction.

Bottom line: The Humans has put itself in contention for numerous races. My Oscar Predictions posts for the films of 2021 will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Dear Evan Hansen

Ben Platt has won a Tony, Emmy, and Grammy for his performance in the Broadway sensation Dear Evan Hansen. The cinematic version of the play comes from director Stephen Chbosky, best known for 2012’s acclaimed The Perks of Being a Wallflower and 2017’s hit Wonder. 

Hansen has opened the Toronto Film Festival with Platt reprising his role. Costars include Amy Adams, Julianne Moore, and Kaitlyn Dever. The teen musical drama (where the 27-year-old Platt is a teen) is drawing wildly mixed reactions from critics – as evidence by its current 50% Rotten Tomatoes rating. Some are being kind while others are excoriating it.

That’s not a recipe for Oscars attention as I see it. Simply stated, its detractors should be loud enough to keep this out of contention. One possible exception could be a couple of original songs.

Bottom line: Platt’s EGOT is highly unlikely to happen with Hansen. My Oscar prediction posts for the films of 2021 will continue…

Oscars 2020: The Case of Glenn Close

Glenn Close in Hillbilly Elegy is next up in my Case Of posts for Supporting Actress contenders. If you missed my first entry covering Maria Bakalova in Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, it is right here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2021/03/30/oscars-2020-the-case-of-maria-bakalova/

The Case for Glenn Close

Three Supporting Actress nominations for The World According to Garp, The Big Chill, and The Natural. Four Actress nods for Fatal Attraction, Dangerous Liaisons, Albert Nobbs, and The Wife. And no victories thus far. With her 8th nomination for the Netflix drama, Glenn Close has tied Peter O’Toole for the most Academy mentions with zero podium trips. So there’s clearly an overdue factor for one of the most celebrated actresses. Her career includes three each of the following: Golden Globes, Tonys, and Emmys. There is no clear favorite to emerge here as previous precursor recipients have included Maria Bakalova at the Critics Choice Awards, Yuh-jung Youn (Minari) at SAG, and Jodie Foster (The Mauritanian) at the Globes (she missed Academy inclusion). In other words, anything could happen.

The Case Against Glenn Close

On paper, Close was looked at as a frontrunner all year. However, poor reviews for the picture itself stunted that momentum. In fact, she received a Razzie nod (honoring the worst in 2020) here and is only the third performer ever with that dubious distinction. For trivia completists, the other two are James Coco for Supporting Actor in 1981’s Only When I Laugh and Amy Irving in Supporting Actress for 1983’s Yentl. And while I mentioned the open nature of this particular contest, Close has yet to attain a precursor.

The Verdict

The 8th time is probably not the charm for Close unless the Academy really leans into the overdue sentiment.

My Case Of posts will continue with Daniel Kaluuya in Judas and the Black Messiah…

Oscar Watch: Hamilton

Blogger’s Update (07/06): There seem to be a lot of folks wondering if indeed Hamilton is eligible for Oscar consideration. Three days after my post, this article from Variety appears to indicate that it won’t be. Yet in the topsy-turvy and unpredictable 2020, let’s see if that holds true as the weeks and months roll along…

https://variety.com/2020/film/news/hamilton-oscars-disney-plus-1234699198/

In 2015, Hamilton became a Broadway sensation and a cultural phenomenon. In addition to turning its creator Lin-Manuel Miranda into a household name, it went onto pretty much win all the Tonys the following year with its hip hop infused telling of founding father Alexander Hamilton.

A filmed version of the play has made its way to Disney+ today after the originally planned October theatrical release was scrapped to the COVID-19 pandemic. Unsurprisingly, critical reaction has matched the raves it experienced a half decade ago and the Rotten Tomatoes score is a clean 100%.

This begs the question: could this unconventional movie garner the attention of Oscar voters? In my view, if there’s a year where it could happen, it’s this one. This heralded take on American history could resonate with the Academy in this 2020 that’s been anything but conventional.

On the other hand, there isn’t much precedent for a picture like this to get awards love. You have to go back to 1975 where a filmed stage production landed a major nomination – James Whitmore for Best Actor in Give ’em Hell Harry!. If the Academy were to honor one of the Hamilton performers, the smart money would be Leslie Odom, Jr. (who won the lead Tony for his work as Aaron Burr). Whether or not he would be campaigned for in lead or supporting is unknown. Also worth noting is the Golden Globes where Hamilton could stand a better chance at nominations in the Musical/Comedy races.

Technical nods are a different story and certainly Costume Design or the Sound races are viable possibilities. This will all boil down to whether the Oscar deciders consider Hamilton to be a legitimately eligible contender. If they do, the Disney property could make some noise in the room where the ceremony happens. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…