A Quiet Place Part II Box Office Prediction

Blogger’s Note (03/12): In what is becoming a new reality due to the COVID-19, the release of this film has been delayed indefinitely from its 03/20 opening. I’ll keep the prediction up, but certainly revisions are likely to be made once a future release date is secured.

Arriving two years after its predecessor made serious noise at the box office, A Quiet Place Part II hits theaters next weekend. The horror sequel to the acclaimed 2018 blockbuster sees John Krasinski returning as writer/director with his spouse Emily Blunt headlining. Millicent Simmonds and Noah Jupe are back as her children. New cast members include Cillian Murphy and Djimon Hounsou.

The original struck a loud chord with audiences and critics with a $50 million opening. Part one legged out impressively for its genre with an eventual $188 million overall domestic haul. It even earned some awards attention with Blunt winning a Supporting Actress SAG trophy.

All horror titles not named The Invisible Man have faced a tough road at multiplexes in 2020. However, with the first feature fresh in their minds, audiences should turn out for this follow-up. The X factor is, of course, worldwide events and this is likely to be a recurring theme in my projections for the foreseeable future. The impact of the Coronavirus on the moviegoing public is playing out in real time. At present, I will say Part II makes a few million under what the first accomplished.

A Quiet Place Part II opening weekend prediction: $42.5 million

Oscars 2019: The Case of Renee Zellweger

My Case of posts for thespians competing for Oscars comes to our final Best Actress nominee – Renee Zellweger in Judy:

The Case for Renee Zellweger

She’s one of the comeback stories of the year and in the strong front runner position for this award. This is Zellweger’s fourth nomination, but it’s been awhile. The actress failed to achieve gold for her first two mentions with Bridget Jones’s Diary and Chicago, but the third time was the charm in Supporting Actress with 2003’s Cold Mountain. Her role as Judy Garland has already earned her the Golden Globe, SAG, and Critics Choice honors.

The Case Against Renee Zellweger

The film itself drew a mixed reaction from critics. Challengers to Zellweger could point to last year when Glenn Close (The Wife) picked up the same precursors, but was upset on Oscar night by Olivia Colman for The Favourite. 

The Verdict

There are some who feel Zellweger could be vulnerable to an upset by either Scarlett Johansson (Marriage Story) or Charlize Theron (Bombshell). However, there’s no doubt that the smart money is on her to win 16 years after her initial podium trip.

My Case of posts will continue with the direction of Martin Scorsese in The Irishman!

Oscars 2019: The Case of Jonathan Pryce

My Case of posts for Oscar hopefuls brings us to the final contender in Best Actor – Jonathan Pryce in the Fernando Meirelles directed Netflix drama The Two Popes:

The Case for Jonathan Pryce

He’s been a well-respected theater actor (with two Tonys to his credit) and cinematic supporting player for decades. From his breakout role in Terry Gilliam’s Brazil to roles in Glengarry Glen Ross, Evita, the Pirates of the Caribbean franchise, and last year’s The Wife, his portrayal of the about to be Pope Francis has finally put him on the Academy’s radar screen at age 72. Both he and his costar Anthony Hopkins made the cut in their respective races.

The Case Against Jonathan Pryce

In an incredibly crowded Best Actor field, it was highly questionable whether Pryce would make it in. He missed out on a SAG nod and the film itself couldn’t nab Picture or Director recognition at the Oscars.

The Verdict

Joaquin Phoenix has sucked up all the oxygen in this category and that’s left Pryce and others in the “it’s an honor to be nominated” camp.

My Case of posts will continue with Renee Zellweger in Judy!

Oscars 2019: The Case of Florence Pugh

Florence Pugh’s Supporting Actress nod in Greta Gerwig’s Little Women is next up in my Case of posts!

The Case for Florence Pugh

The actress broke out in a major way in 2019 with well-reviewed roles in the wrestling dramedy Fighting with My Family, Ari Aster’s horror pic Midsommar, and in this latest iteration of Louisa May Alcott’s classic novel. Even though Saoirse Ronan is nominated for Best Actress, it was Pugh who got a lions share of critical attention. Pugh’s ascendance into the mainstream will blossom even more in 2020 with a prominent role alongside fellow Supporting Actress nominee Scarlett Johansson in the MCU’s Black Widow. If the Academy wants to pick a young upstart, this is the way to go.

The Case Against Florence Pugh

She missed out on both Golden Globe and SAG nods and that’s never a solid sign. Laura Dern, her Little Women costar, is the massive front runner for Marriage Story. 

The Verdict

A solid 2019 for Pugh culminated in this nomination. It won’t end in a win.

My Case of posts will continue with the direction of Todd Phillips for Joker!

Oscars 2019: The Case of Charlize Theron

Charlize Theron in Jay Roach’s Fox News expose Bombshell is the fourth Best Actress hopeful to be profiled in my Oscar Case of posts:

The Case for Charlize Theron

Sixteen years after winning gold for her first Oscar nomination for Monster, Theron is back in the mix as journalist Megyn Kelly in Bombshell. It marks her third nod after also being named for 2005’s North Country. She drew raves for her transformation (with the help of the film’s makeup crew) to the former Fox News anchor. There are sturdy front runners in all four acting races, but some feel Best Actress is most ripe for an upset. So while Renee Zellweger in Judy is the heavy favorite based on precursors, Theron and Scarlett Johansson (Marriage Story) are looked at as most likely to surprise.

The Case Against Charlize Theron

While she picked up Golden Globe and SAG attention, she lost both to Zellweger (who won Supporting Actress for Cold Mountain the same year Theron took Actress). Bombshell failed to pick up significant nods beyond acting (Margot Robbie is in Supporting Actress) and Makeup and Hairstyling.

The Verdict

The chance of Theron pulling an upset victory is slim, but at least somewhat feasible. I wouldn’t count on it, however, given Zellweger’s ongoing sweep.

My Case of posts will continue with the direction of Sam Mendes for 1917!

Oscars 2019: The Case of Joaquin Phoenix

The Case of posts for performers up for Academy Awards on February 9th arrived at Joaquin Phoenix as Joker in the Todd Phillips directed blockbuster:

The Case for Joaquin Phoenix

After three previous nominations for Gladiator, Walk the Line, and The Master, all signs are pointing to Phoenix finally getting the gold. For this particular comic book pic, Joker defied all expectations with a worldwide gross of over a billion dollars. Much of the focus was on Phoenix’s intense performance and he’s been rewarded with Golden Globe and SAG victories already. The film itself leads the Oscars with 11 total nominations.

The Case Against Joaquin Phoenix

The release of Joker was met with some controversy about its themes and overall message. There could be enough of a backlash that it could prevent Phoenix rising up to the podium.

The Verdict

Simply put, he is a massive front runner for his first Academy Award. If Phoenix does so, he would make a bit of Oscar history. There’s only been one combination of actors winning for playing the same fictional character: Marlon Brando and Joaquin’s Joker costar Robert De Niro as Michael Corleone in the first two Godfather epics. In 2008, Heath Ledger was posthumously awarded Supporting Actor as Joker in The Dark Knight. Expect there to be a second instance of that occurring.

My Case of posts will focus next on Charlize Theron for Bombshell!

Oscars 2019: The Case of Bong Joon-Ho

My Case of posts outlining the pros and cons of the major Oscar nominees from 2019 brings us to the first entry for Best Director and that’s Bong Joon-Ho for Parasite.

The Case for Bong Joon-Ho

After years of being a critical darling with Memories of Murder, The Host, Snowpiercer, and Okja, the South Korean filmmaker broke through in the awards space in a massive way with the genre defying Parasite. The film won the Palme d’or at the Cannes Film Festival unanimously and is the best reviewed picture of the year. Supporters of Parasite are beyond passionate. In a somewhat surprising victory, the movie’s cast won Best Ensemble at the SAG Awards. Competing against a field of legends that includes Scorsese and Tarantino, Joon-Ho is the bright shiny object for voters.

The Case Against Bong Joon-Ho

Two words: Sam Mendes. In making the World War I epic 1917, Mendes has picked up the hardware in this category’s major indicators: the Golden Globes and, especially, the Directors Guild of America.

The Verdict

It appears Best Director has come down to Joon-Ho and Mendes. This race has split with Best Picture five out the past nine years. Parasite could win Best Picture with Mendes taking director and vice versa. The precursors favor Mendes, but the love for this is indeed a factor.

My Case of posts will continue with Joaquin Phoenix in Joker!