76th BAFTA Film Awards Winner Predictions

The BAFTAs, Britain’s version of the Academy Awards, airs this Sunday (February 19) and it can often serve as a preview for where the Oscars will go. That holds true in same races more than others like the acting derbies.

In the past decade, 32 of the 40 winners in Actress, Actor, Supporting Actress, and Supporting Actor became Oscar recipients. That’s 8 out of the past 10 Actresses, 9 for 10 in Actor, 7 for 10 in Supporting Actress, and 8 for 10 in Supporting Actor.

It’s a different story for the grand prize. A mere 3 of 10 Best Film winners at BAFTA are BP victors at the Oscars – Argo, 12 Years a Slave, and Nomadland. The percentage goes up considerably for Director at 7/10.

I’m going to keep it simple here. I’ll give you the nominees and my predicted winner and a runner-up. Let’s get to it!

Best Film

All Quiet on the Western Front, The Banshees of Inisherin, Elvis, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Tár

Predicted Winner: The Banshees of Inisherin

Runner-Up: Everything Everywhere All at Once

Best Director

Edward Berger (All Quiet on the Western Front), Park Chan-wook (Decision to Leave), Daniels (Everything Everywhere All at Once), Todd Field (Tár), Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin)

Predicted Winner: Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Runner-Up: Todd Field, Tár

Best Actress in a Leading Role

Cate Blanchett (Tár), Viola Davis (The Woman King), Ana de Armas (Blonde), Danielle Deadwyler (Till), Emma Thompson (Good Luck to You, Leo Grande), Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once)

Predicted Winner: Cate Blanchett, Tár

Runner-Up: Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Best Actor in a Leading Role

Austin Butler (Elvis), Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin), Brendan Fraser (The Whale), Daryl McCormack (Good Luck to You, Leo Grande), Paul Mescal (Aftersun), Bill Nighy (Living)

Predicted Winner: Austin Butler, Elvis

Runner-Up: Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin

Best Actress in a Supporting Role

Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever), Hong Chau (The Whale), Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin), Jamie Lee Curtis (Everywhere All at Once), Dolly de Leon (Triangle of Sadness), Carey Mulligan (She Said)

Predicted Winner: Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin

Runner-Up: Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Best Actor in a Supporting Role

Brendan Gleeson (The Banshees of Inisherin), Barry Keoghan (The Banshees of Inisherin), Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All at Once), Eddie Redmayne (The Good Nurse), Albrecht Schuch (All Quiet on the Western Front), Micheal Ward (Empire of Light)

Predicted Winner: Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Runner-Up: Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin

Best Original Screenplay

The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Fabelmans, Tár, Triangle of Sadness

Predicted Winner: The Banshees of Inisherin

Runner-Up: Everything Everywhere All at Once

Best Adapted Screenplay

All Quiet on the Western Front, Living, The Quiet Girl, She Said, The Whale

Predicted Winner: Living

Runner-Up: All Quiet on the Western Front

Best Animated Film

Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, Turning Red

Predicted Winner: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

Runner-Up: Marcel the Shell with Shoes On

Best Film Not in the English Language

All Quiet on the Western Front, Argentina, 1985, Corsage, Decision to Leave, The Quiet Girl

Predicted Winner: All Quiet on the Western Front

Runner-Up: The Quiet Girl

Best Documentary

All That Breathes, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, Fire of Love, Moonage Daydream, Navalny

Predicted Winner: Fire of Love

Runner-Up: Navalny

Best Casting

Aftersun, All Quiet on the Western Front, Elvis, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Triangle of Sadness

Predicted Winner: Everything Everywhere All at Once

Runner-Up: Elvis

Best Cinematography

All Quiet on the Western Front, The Batman, Elvis, Empire of Light, Top Gun: Maverick

Predicted Winner: All Quiet on the Western Front

Runner-Up: Elvis

Best Costume Design

All Quiet on the Western Front, Amsterdam, Babylon, Elvis, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris

Predicted Winner: Elvis

Runner-Up: Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris

Best Editing

All Quiet on the Western Front, The Banshees of Inisherin, Elvis, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Top Gun: Maverick

Predicted Winner: Everything Everywhere All at Once

Runner-Up: Top Gun: Maverick

Best Make-Up & Hair

All Quiet on the Western Front, The Batman, Elvis, Roald Dahl’s Matilda the Musical, The Whale

Predicted Winner: The Whale

Runner-Up: Elvis

Best Original Score

All Quiet on the Western Front, Babylon, The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

Predicted Winner: Babylon

Runner-Up: All Quiet on the Western Front

Best Production Design

All Quiet on the Western Front, Babylon, The Batman, Elvis, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

Predicted Winner: All Quiet on the Western Front

Runner-Up: Babylon

Best Sound

All Quiet on the Western Front, Avatar: The Way of Water, Elvis, Tár, Top Gun: Maverick

Predicted Winner: All Quiet on the Western Front

Runner-Up: Top Gun: Maverick

Best Special Visual Effects

All Quiet on the Western Front, Avatar: The Way of Water, The Batman, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Top Gun: Maverick

Predicted Winner: Avatar: The Way of Water

Runner-Up: Top Gun: Maverick

Outstanding British Film

Aftersun, The Banshees of Inisherin, Brian and Charles, Empire of Light, Good Luck to You, Leo Grande, Living, Roald Dahl’s Matilda the Musical, See How They Run, The Swimmers, The Wonder

Predicted Winner: The Banshees of Inisherin

Runner-Up: Aftersun

Outstanding Debut by a British Writer, Director or Producer

Aftersun, Blue Jean, Electric Malady, Good Luck to You, Leo Grande, Rebellion

Predicted Winner: Aftersun

Runner-Up: Good Luck to You, Leo Grande

That equates to these movies generating these numbers in terms of wins:

4 Wins

All Quiet on the Western Front, The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once

2 Wins

Elvis

1 Win

Aftersun, Avatar: The Way of Water, Babylon, Fire of Love, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Living, Tár, The Whale

I’ll have a recap up on Sunday!

76th BAFTA Nominee Reactions

Five days ahead of the Academy Awards nominations, our friends across the pond have revealed their picks. The BAFTAs (Great Britain’s Oscars equivalent) take place March 13th with Richard E. Grant hosting.

After the long lists of potential contenders were revealed, it was an impressive showing for Edward Berger’s WWI epic All Quiet on the Western Front. Today’s nods solidified its status as a favorite of this branch with a terrific 14 nominations. In short, it showed up everywhere it could’ve with the exception of Best Actor.

While Quiet made noise, it was the opposite for Women Talking and Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery. Both were blanked. In particular, each were expected to contend in Adapted Screenplay (Talking is seen as a potential winner at Oscar). The Fabelmans only managed one mention. I projected that though not in the race where it materialized.

I went 83/119 on my forecasts. Let’s walk through each category with some quick takes.

Best Film

All Quiet on the Western Front, The Banshees of Inisherin, Elvis, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Tár

How I Did: 4/5

No shockers here as Elvis got in over Triangle of Sadness. Given the performance by Quiet today, it may battle it out with Banshees (which did well this morning) and Everything for the grand prize.

Director

Edward Berger (All Quiet on the Western Front), Park Chan-wook (Decision to Leave), Daniels (Everything Everywhere All at Once), Todd Field (Tár), Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin), Gina Prince-Bythewood (The Woman King)

How I Did: 4/6

My runner-up Chan-wook making the cut was not a surprise. Prince-Bythewood getting in is. They’re in over Alice Diop (Saint Omer) who was my own surprise pick and Charlotte Wells (Aftersun). It’s worth noting that Aftersun had a rather subpar day. We already knew Steven Spielberg (The Fabelmans) was out since he didn’t make the long list. This might be Berger v. Daniels.

Actressk

Cate Blanchett (Tár), Viola Davis (The Woman King), Danielle Deadwyler (Till), Ana de Armas (Blonde), Emma Thompson (Good Luck to You, Leo Grande), Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once)

How I Did: 5/6

Deadwyler over Lesley Manville in Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris. As projected, this is another high profile omission for Michelle Williams in The Fabelmans. Her Oscar hopes are shakier by the minute.

Actor

Austin Butler (Elvis), Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin), Brendan Fraser (The Whale), Daryl McCormack (Good Luck to You, Leo Grande), Paul Mescal (Aftersun), Bill Nighy (Living)

How I Did: 5/6

McCormack unexpectedly pops up instead of Felix Kammerer – the one miss for All Quiet. Noteworthy that Tom Cruise couldn’t land here for Top Gun: Maverick (with a so-so haul of 4 tech nods).

Supporting Actress

Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever), Hong Chau (The Whale), Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin), Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere All at Once), Dolly De Leon (Triangle of Sadness), Carey Mulligan (She Said)

How I Did: 4/6

The question here is whether Bassett keeps the victory streak alive or whether Condon, De Leon, or one of the others can disrupt a sweep. Curtis and Mulligan surface over my projected picks of Lashana Lynch (The Woman King) and Janelle Monáe (Glass Onion).

Supporting Actor

Brendan Gleeson (The Banshees of Inisherin), Barry Keoghan (The Banshees of Inisherin), Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All at Once), Eddie Redmayne (The Good Nurse), Albrecht Schuch (All Quiet on the Western Front), Micheal Ward (Empire of Light)

How I Did: 4/6

Another call for Redmayne. He and Schuch join this sextet instead of Woody Harrelson (Triangle of Sadness) and Brad Pitt (Babylon). Quan is the favorite.

Original Screenplay

The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Fabelmans, Tár, Triangle of Sadness

How I Did: 4/5

The sole nod for The Fabelmans is here and I thought Aftersun would be in the quintet instead. Will Banshees or Everything emerge?

Adapted Screenplay

All Quiet on the Western Front, Living, The Quiet Girl, She Said, The Whale

How I Did: 2/5

Ouch. As mentioned, no Glass Onion or Women Talking and I also had Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio listed. All Quiet, The Quiet Girl, and The Quiet Whale, errr just The Whale, were the trio I wasn’t counting on. Good luck selecting a winner here. I’m thinking Living at the moment.

Outstanding British Film

Aftersun, The Banshees of Inisherin, Brian and Charles, Empire of Light, Good Luck to You, Leo Grande, Living, Roald Dahl’s Matilda the Musical, See How They Run, The Swimmers, The Wonder

How I Did: 8/10

The only race with 10 contenders, one would think Banshees (as the only Best Film nominee) is out front. I had Blue Jean and Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris and not See How They Run or The Swimmers.

Outstanding Debut a British Writer, Director, or Producer

Aftersun, Blue Jean, Electric Malady, Good Luck to You, Leo Grande, Rebellion

How I Did: 3/5

Malady and Rebellion over Emily and Wayfinder. Before this morning, I would’ve thought Aftersun was a slam dunk. It likely still takes this, but Grande could threaten given its over performance.

Film Not in the English Language

All Quiet on the Western Front, Argentina, 1985, Corsage, Decision to Leave, The Quiet Girl

How I Did: 4/5

Had EO and not Corsage. The only way All Quiet doesn’t take this in a blowout is if it wins Best Film and the voters want to choose something else. That probably won’t occur, but if so, Decision to Leave is viable considering the directing nod.

Animated Film

Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, Turning Red

How I Did: 4/4

I won’t pat myself too hard on the back since the only category with a quartet wasn’t much of a challenge. Picking a recipient isn’t either as Pinocchio should prevail.

Documentary

All That Breathes, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, Fire of Love, Moonage Daydream, Navalny

How I Did: 3/5

I admittedly went with a couple spoilers in Hallelujah: Leonard Cohen, a Journey, a Song and The Ghost of Richard Harris. Fire and Navalny are present instead for what could be a preview of the Oscar five (or at least 4/5).

Casting

Aftersun, All Quiet on the Western Front, Elvis, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Triangle of Sadness

How I Did: 3/5

Chose Banshees and Fabelmans and not All Quiet (get used to hearing that) or Elvis.

Cinematography

All Quiet on the Western Front, The Batman, Elvis, Empire of Light, Top Gun: Maverick

How I Did: 3/5

Had Athena and Tár as opposed to The Batman and Elvis.

Costume Design

All Quiet on the Western Front, Amsterdam, Babylon, Elvis, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris

How I Did: 3/5

All Quiet and Amsterdam are suited for competition instead of Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (a notable snub) and Roald Dahl’s Matilda the Musical.

Editing

All Quiet on the Western Front, The Banshees of Inisherin, Elvis, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Top Gun: Maverick

How I Did: 4/5

Thought the Brits might select Moonage Daydream but it’s Banshees instead.

Make Up and Hair

All Quiet on the Western Front, The Batman, Elvis, Roald Dahl’s Matilda the Musical, The Whale

Didn’t have All Quiet or Matilda. Did have Amsterdam and Babylon.

Original Score

All Quiet on the Western Front, Babylon, The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

Two of the year’s most acclaimed scores (Empire of Light, Women Talking) fall out with All Quiet and Everything in.

Production Design

All Quiet on the Western Front, Babylon, The Batman, Elvis, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

How I Did: 2/5

Ouch Part II. Only correctly called Babylon and Elvis (the duo most likely to win). Incorrectly had Avatar: The Way of Water, Banshees, and Empire of Light.

Sound

All Quiet on the Western Front, Avatar: The Way of Water, Elvis, Tár, Top Gun: Maverick

How I Did: 4/5

Tár in, The Batman out.

Special Visual Effects

All Quiet on the Western Front, Avatar: The Way of Water, The Batman, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Top Gun: Maverick

All Quiet in over Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore. Despite a meager haul for Avatar, it should manage a victory in this race.

For those keeping score, that means these pictures garnered these numbers of nominations:

14 Nominations

All Quiet on the Western Front

10 Nominations

The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once

9 Nominations

Elvis

5 Nominations

Tár

4 Nominations

Aftersun, The Batman, Good Luck to You, Leo Grande, Top Gun: Maverick, The Whale

3 Nominations

Babylon, Empire of Light, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Living, Triangle of Sadness

2 Nominations

Avatar: The Way of Water, Decision to Leave, The Quiet Girl, Roald Dahl’s Matilda the Musical, She Said, The Woman King

1 Nomination

All That Breathes, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, Amsterdam, Argentina, 1985, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Blonde, Blue Jean, Brian and Charles, Corsage, Electric Malady, The Fabelmans, Fire of Love, The Good Nurse, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, Moonage Daydream, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris, Navalny, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, Rebellion, See How They Run, The Swimmers, Till, Turning Red, The Wonder

I’ll have final predictions up shortly before the ceremony’s airdate!

76th BAFTA Nominee Predictions

Arriving five days before Oscar nominations are the British Academy Film Awards – commonly known as the BAFTAs. On January 6th, the long lists in each category were revealed. There were major surprises like Avatar: The Way of Water not being in the list of 10 for Best Film consideration (same goes for its maker James Cameron in Director). Perhaps the biggest shock was Steven Spielberg being omitted from the Directing race. That’s partly why I have The Fabelmans generating a grand total of 1 nomination.

This is a show that isn’t afraid to go their own way. In 2021, while all 5 Best Film contenders were also BP contenders with the Academy, none of the six Best Actress hopefuls scored an Oscar nod (I doubt that happens again). Only two of the six Actor nominees got the Academy’s consideration.

You know the drill. For each competition, I’m giving you my picks (nominees can be between 4 and 10 and mostly 5 and 6 depending on the race) and a runner-up. Let’s go!

Best Film

All Quiet on the Western Front, The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Tár, Triangle of Sadness

Runner-Up: Top Gun: Maverick

Director

Edward Berger (All Quiet on the Western Front), Daniels (Everything Everywhere All at Once), Alice Diop (Saint Omer), Todd Field (Tár), Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin), Charlotte Wells (Aftersun)

Runner-Up: Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave

Actress

Cate Blanchett (Tár), Viola Davis (The Woman King), Ana de Armas (Blonde), Lesley Manville (Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris), Emma Thompson (Good Luck to You, Leo Grande), Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once)

Runner-Up: Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans

Actor

Austin Butler (Elvis), Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin), Brendan Fraser (The Whale), Felix Kammerer (All Quiet on the Western Front), Paul Mescal (Aftersun), Bill Nighy (Living)

Runner-Up: Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick

Supporting Actress

Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever), Hong Chau (The Whale), Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin), Dolly De Leon (Triangle of Sadness), Lashana Lynch (The Woman King), Janelle Monáe (Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery)

Runner-Up: Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Supporting Actor

Brendan Gleeson (The Banshees of Inisherin), Woody Harrelson (Triangle of Sadness), Barry Keoghan (The Banshees of Inisherin), Brad Pitt (Babylon), Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All at Once), Micheal Ward (Empire of Light)

Runner-Up: Ben Whishaw, Women Talking

Original Screenplay

Aftersun, The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Tár, Triangle of Sadness

Runner-Up: The Fabelmans

Adapted Screenplay

Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Living, She Said, Women Talking

Runner-Up: The Whale

Outstanding British Film

Aftersun, The Banshees of Inisherin, Blue Jean, Brian and Charles, Empire of Light, Good Luck to You, Leo Grande, Living, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris, Roald Dahl’s Matilda the Musical, The Wonder

Runner-Up: Lady Chatterley’s Lover

Outstanding Debut a British Writer, Director, or Producer

Aftersun, Blue Jean, Emily, Good Luck to You, Leo Grande, Wayfinder

Runner-Up: Donna

Film Not in the English Language

All Quiet on the Western Front, Argentina, 1985, Decision to Leave, EO, The Quiet Girl

Runner-Up: RRR

Animated Film

Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, Turning Red

Documentary

All That Breathes, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, The Ghost of Richard Harris, Hallelujah: Leonard Cohen, a Journey, a Song, Moonage Daydream

Runner-Up: Navalny

Casting

Aftersun, The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Fabelmans, Triangle of Sadness

Runner-Up: All Quiet on the Western Front

Cinematography

All Quiet on the Western Front, Athena, Empire of Light, Tár, Top Gun: Maverick

Runner-Up: The Banshees of Inisherin

Costume Design

Babylon, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Elvis, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris, Roald Dahl’s Matilda the Musical

Runner-Up: Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

Editing

All Quiet on the Western Front, Elvis, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Moonage Daydream, Top Gun: Maverick

Runner-Up: Aftersun

Make Up and Hair

Amsterdam, Babylon, The Batman, Elvis, The Whale

Runner-Up: All Quiet on the Western Front

Original Score

Babylon, The Banshees of Inisherin, Empire of Light, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Women Talking

Runner-Up: The Batman

Production Design

Avatar: The Way of Water, Babylon, The Banshees of Inisherin, Elvis, Empire of Light

Runner-Up: All Quiet on the Western Front

Sound

All Quiet on the Western Front, Avatar: The Way of Water, The Batman, Elvis, Top Gun: Maverick

Runner-Up: Thirteen Lives

Special Visual Effects

Avatar: The Way of Water, The Batman, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore, Top Gun: Maverick

Runner-Up: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

That equates to these movies garnering these numbers in nominations:

11 Nominations

The Banshees of Inisherin

8 Nominations

Everything Everywhere All at Once

7 Nominations

All Quiet on the Western Front

6 Nominations

Aftersun, Elvis

5 Nominations

Babylon, Empire of Light, Tár, Triangle of Sadness

4 Nominations

Top Gun: Maverick

3 Nominations

Avatar: The Way of Water, The Batman, Good Luck to You, Leo Grande, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Living, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris, The Whale

2 Nominations

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Blue Jean, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Moonage Daydream, Roald Dahl’s Matilda the Musical, The Woman King, Women Talking

1 Nomination

All That Breathes, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, Amsterdam, Argentina, 1985, Athena, Blonde, Brian and Charles, Decision to Leave, Emily, EO, The Fabelmans (!), Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore, The Ghost of Richard Harris, Hallelujah: Leonard Cohen, a Journey, a Song, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, The Quiet Girl, Saint Omer, She Said, Turning Red, Wayfinder, The Wonder

I’ll have a recap up Thursday!

95th Academy Awards Predictions: January 16th Edition

It has been two weeks since my last Oscar predictions and a lot has transpired since. The Golden Globes and Critics Choice Awards aired. SAG nominations came out. So did the BAFTA shortlists and PGA and DGA contenders.

All of this has made the puzzle a little clearer. Yet the fact remains – Oscar will Oscar when noms are released in a week. This is my penultimate forecast. Final predictions will arrive this weekend. Tonight’s estimates are your last look at rankings. It will simply be the listed picks a few days from now with commentary and a runner-up projection in each feature film category.

Here’s the latest developments as we are almost at the end of the line:

The Whale rises as it is back in my top 10 BP nominees. Women Talking falls out. A similar scenario in Supporting Actress as The Whale‘s Hong Chau is in over Women Talking‘s Claire Foy. After victories at the Globes and Critics Choice, Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever) vaults over Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin) for the #1 slot in Supporting Actress.

On the other hand, I’m putting Austin Butler (Elvis) back in first over Brendan Fraser (The Whale). This is essentially a coin flip with Colin Farrell from Banshees as a legit spoiler.

Edward Berger (All Quiet on the Western Front) returns to the directorial quintet and James Cameron (Avatar: The Way of Water) is out.

In Actress, Viola Davis (The Woman King) at last makes the cut with Margot Robbie (Babylon) dropping. That’s not the only news in this derby. I almost went with Ana de Armas (Blonde) instead of Davis. And there’s the recent development of Andrea Riseborough’s online campaign for the micro budget indie drama To Leslie. Numerous performers, including Cate Blanchett, have boarded the Riseborough bandwagon. Two weeks ago – she was on no one’s radar screen. Now the buzz is enough to put her in 8th.

You can read all the movement below and look for those FINAL predictions this weekend!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees

1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 3) (E)

4. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 4) (E)

5. Tár (PR: 5) (E)

6. Elvis (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 6) (-1)

8. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 10) (+2)

9. The Whale (PR: 12) (+3)

10. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 9) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

11. Babylon (PR: 11) (E)

12. RRR (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Women Talking (PR: 8) (-5)

14. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 14) (E)

15. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Woman King

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (E)

2. Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)

3. Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 3) (E)

4. Todd Field, Tár (PR: 4) (E)

5. Edward Berger, All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Joseph Kosinski, Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 10) (+3)

8. S.S. Rajamouli, RRR (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Ruben Ostlund, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Baz Luhrmann, Elvis (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Sarah Polley, Women Talking

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Cate Blanchett, Tár (PR: 1) (E)

2. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)

3. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (E)

4. Danielle Deadwyler, Till (PR: 4) (E)

5. Viola Davis, The Woman King (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Ana de Armas, Blonde (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Margot Robbie, Babylon (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Andrea Riseborough, To Leslie (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Olivia Colman, Empire of Light (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Naomi Ackie, Whitney Houston: I Wanna Dance with Somebody (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Jennifer Lawrence, Causeway

Emma Thompson, Good Luck to You, Leo Grande

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Austin Butler, Elvis (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Brendan Fraser, The Whale (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 3) (E)

4. Bill Nighy, Living (PR: 4) (E)

5. Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Paul Mescal, Aftersun (PR: 6) (E)

7. Hugh Jackman, The Son (PR: 7) (E)

8. Adam Sandler, Hustle (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Tom Hanks, A Man Called Otto (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Jeremy Pope, The Inspection (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Gabriel LaBelle, The Fabelmans

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 4) (+3)

2. Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Hong Chau, The Whale (PR: 9) (+5)

5. Dolly De Leon, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Jessie Buckley, Women Talking (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Janelle Monáe, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Claire Foy, Women Talking (PR: 5) (-4)

10. Carey Mulligan, She Said (PR: 10) (E)

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)

2. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (E)

3. Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 3) (E)

4. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans (PR: 4) (E)

5. Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Brad Pitt, Babylon (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Eddie Redmayne, The Good Nurse (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Brian Tyree Henry, Causeway (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Ben Whishaw, Women Talking (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Tom Hanks, Elvis (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (E)

4. Tár (PR: 4) (E)

5. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Aftersun (PR: 6) (E)

7. Babylon (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Decision to Leave (PR: 9) (+1)

9. The Menu (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Armageddon Time (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Bardo

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Women Talking (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Whale (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 2) (-1)

4. She Said (PR: 4) (E)

5. Living (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities

6. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 7) (E)

8. White Noise (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 9) (E)

10. Bones and All (PR: 10) (E)

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 1) (E)

2. Marcel the Shell with Shoes On (PR: 2) (E)

3. Turning Red (PR: 3) (E)

4. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish (PR: 4) (E)

5. Wendell and Wild (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Bad Guys (PR: 6) (E)

7. My Father’s Dragon (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Strange World (PR: 8) (E)

9. Inu-Oh (PR: 9) (E)

10. Lightyear (PR: 10) (E)

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 1) (E)

2. Decision to Leave (PR: 2) (E)

3. Close (PR: 6) (+3)

4. Argentina, 1985 (PR: 4) (E)

5. EO (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Saint Omer (PR: 3) (-3)

7. Bardo (PR: 5) (-2)

8. The Quiet Girl (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Joyland (PR: 9) (E)

10. Holy Spider (PR: 8) (-2)

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (PR: 1) (E)

2. All That Breathes (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Fire of Love (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Navalny (PR: 2) (-2)

5. The Territory (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Descendant (PR: 6) (E)

7. Moonage Daydream (PR: 7) (E)

8. Retrograde (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Bad Axe (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Last Flight Home (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Janes

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)

2. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (E)

4. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 4) (E)

5. Empire of Light (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Babylon (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Elvis (PR: Not Ranked)

8. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 7) (-1)

9. The Batman (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Nope (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Bardo

Everything Everywhere All at Once

Tár

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Elvis (PR: 1) (E)

2. Babylon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Woman King (PR: 4) (E)

5. Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Fabelmans (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Living (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 8) (E)

9. Corsage (PR: 9) (E)

10. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Banshees of Inisherin

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)

2. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 2) (E)

3. Elvis (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 9) (+3)

7. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Babylon (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Tár (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Women Talking

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Elvis (PR: 2 (+1)

2. The Whale (PR: 1) (-1)

3. The Batman (PR: 3) (E)

4. Babylon (PR: 4) (E)

5. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 6) (E)

7. Amsterdam (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Blonde (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Emancipation (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Crimes of the Future (PR: 10) (E)

Best Original Score

Predicted Nomnees:

1. The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (E)

2. Babylon (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Women Talking (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 4) (-2)

7. The Woman King (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 6) (-3)

10. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “Naatu Naatu” from RRR (PR: 2) (+1)

2. “Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (-1)

3. “Lift Me Up” from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 3) (E)

4. “Ciao Papa” from Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 4) (E)

5. “Applause” from Tell It Like a Woman (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. “This Is a Life” from Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 5) (-1)

7. “Carolina” from Where the Crawdads Sing (PR: 7) (E)

8. “New Body Rhumba” from White Noise (PR: 8) (E)

9. “Good Afternoon” from Spirited (PR: Not Ranked)

10. “Stand Up” from Till (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

“Nothing is Lost (You Give Me Strength)” from Avatar: The Way of Water

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Elvis (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 2) (-2)

5. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Fabelmans (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 9) (E)

10. The Batman (PR: 10) (E)

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)

2. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 2) (E)

3. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Elvis (PR: 3) (-1)

5. The Batman (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 6) (E)

7. Babylon (PR: 7) (E)

8. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 8) (E)

9. Moonage Daydream (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 1) (E)

2. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Batman (PR: 3) (E)

4. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness (PR: 4) (E)

5. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 6) (E)

7. Nope (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Thirteen Lives (PR: 8) (E)

9. Jurassic World: Dominion (PR: 9) (E)

10. Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore (PR: 10) (E)

That equates to these movies garnering these numbers in terms of nominations:

9 Nominations

The Fabelmans

8 Nominations

Everything Everywhere All at Once

7 Nominations

All Quiet on the Western Front, The Banshees of Inisherin, Elvis, Top Gun: Maverick

6 Nominations

Avatar: The Way of Water

5 Nominations

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, The Whale

4 Nominations

Babylon, Tár

3 Nominations

The Batman, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Triangle of Sadness

2 Nominations

Living, The Woman King, Women Talking

1 Nominations

All That Breathes, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, Argentina, 1985, Close, Decision to Leave, Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, Empire of Light, EO, Fire of Love, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris, Navalny, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, RRR, She Said, Tell It Like a Woman, The Territory, Till, Turning Red, Wendell and Wild

80th Golden Globe Awards Winner Predictions

After controversies kept the 79th ceremony off of the air in 2021, the 80th Golden Golden Awards is set to air on NBC Tuesday night with Jerrod Carmichael hosting. When it comes down to winners for their contribution to film, we can safely bet on one. Eddie Murphy will receive the Cecil B. DeMille Award for his four decades of work onscreen. We can probably safely bet on more than just Eddie (Colin Farrell comes to mind).

Most categories are tougher to project. There are a number of races where I don’t feel confident with my arrived at winner. Quite frankly, if I go 7/14 this year, I’ll be content.

For each category, I’ll give you my pick and my runner-up. Unlike the Oscars, you won’t get detailed analysis though I will say here’s some of the categories that are tough:

Best Motion Picture (Drama) is a four-way race between everything not named Tár while Best Motion Picture (Musical or Comedy) is a genuine two-way competition between The Banshees of Inisherin and Everything Everywhere All at Once.

The Fabelmans might be fading with the Academy and that could hinder Spielberg’s chance at Director. The legendary filmmaker was very notably snubbed from the sixteen shortlist possibilities at BAFTA. However, that happened after voting had closed with HFPA. I still give him the slight edge with the Globes, but watch out for the Daniels or Baz Luhrmann.

In the lead acting races, three are easy to pick. Actor in a Drama is not as I think it’s a coin flip between Austin Butler and Brendan Fraser. My selection comes down to what I chose for Best Picture.

I don’t think Carey Mulligan takes Supporting Actress for She Said. The other four are all viable. While Kerry Condon might be the soft favorite for Oscar, I could see the HFPA going with a more famous performer with a celebrated body of work. Whether that’s Angela Bassett or Jamie Lee Curtis is an excellent question.

RRR could take Non-English Language Film and Song though the runners-up are both strong spoilers. Women Talking, The Fabelmans, and Babylon are all totally feasible for Score.

All right – enough talk! Time to (yikes) choose…

BEST MOTION PICTURE (DRAMA)

The Nominees: Avatar: The Way of Water, Elvis, The Fabelmans, Tár, Top Gun: Maverick

Predicted Winner: Elvis

Runner-Up: Top Gun: Maverick

BEST MOTION PICTURE (MUSICAL OR COMEDY)

The Nominees: Babylon, The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Triangle of Sadness

Predicted Winner: Everything Everywhere All at Once

Runner-Up: The Banshees of Inisherin

BEST DIRECTOR

The Nominees: James Cameron (Avatar: The Way of Water), Daniels (Everything Everywhere All at Once), Baz Luhrmann (Elvis), Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin), Steven Spielberg (The Fabelmans)

Predicted Winner: Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans

Runner-Up: Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once

BEST ACTRESS IN A MOTION PICTURE (DRAMA)

The Nominees: Cate Blanchett (Tár), Olivia Colman (Empire of Light), Viola Davis (The Woman King), Ana de Armas (Blonde), Michelle Williams (The Fabelmans)

Predicted Winner: Cate Blanchett, Tár

Runner-Up: Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans

BEST ACTOR IN A MOTION PICTURE (DRAMA)

The Nominees: Austin Butler (Elvis), Brendan Fraser (The Whale), Hugh Jackman (The Son), Bill Nighy (Living), Jeremy Pope (The Inspection)

Predicted Winner: Austin Butler, Elvis

Runner-Up: Brendan Fraser, The Whale

BEST ACTRESS IN A MOTION PICTURE (MUSICAL OR COMEDY)

The Nominees: Lesley Manville (Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris), Margot Robbie (Babylon), Anya Taylor-Joy (The Menu), Emma Thompson (Good Luck to You, Leo Grande), Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once)

Predicted Winner: Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Runner-Up: Margot Robbie, Babylon

BEST ACTOR IN A MOTION PICTURE (MUSICAL OR COMEDY)

The Nominees: Diego Calva (Babylon), Daniel Craig (Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery), Adam Driver (White Noise), Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin), Ralph Fiennes (The Menu)

Predicted Winner: Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin

Runner-Up: Is there one?? Let’s say Daniel Craig, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

The Nominees: Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever), Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin), Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere All at Once), Dolly De Leon (Triangle of Sadness), Carey Mulligan (She Said)

Predicted Winner: Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Runner-Up: Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

The Nominees: Brendan Gleeson (The Banshees of Inisherin), Barry Keoghan (The Banshees of Inisherin), Brad Pitt (Babylon), Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All at Once), Eddie Redmayne (The Good Nurse)

Predicted Winner: Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Runner-Up: Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin

BEST SCREENPLAY

The Nominees: The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Fabelmans, Tár, Women Talking

Predicted Winner: The Banshees of Inisherin

Runner-Up: Everything Everywhere All at Once

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

The Nominees: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Inu-oh, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, Turning Red

Predicted Winner: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

Runner-Up: Marcel the Shell with Shoes On

BEST NON-ENGLISH LANGUAGE FILM

The Nominees: All Quiet on the Western Front, Argentina, 1985, Close, Decision to Leave, RRR

Predicted Winner: RRR

Runner-Up: All Quiet on the Western Front

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

The Nominees: Babylon, The Banshees of Inisherin, The Fabelmans, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Women Talking

Predicted Winner: Women Talking

Runner-Up: The Fabelmans

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

The Nominees: “Carolina” from Where the Crawdads Sing, “Ciao Papa” from Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, “Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick, “Lift Me Up” from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, “Naatu Naatu” from RRR

Predicted Winner: “Naatu Naatu” from RRR

Runner-Up: “Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick

That equates to these movies achieving these numbers in terms of wins:

3 Wins

Everything Everywhere All at Once

2 Wins

The Banshees of Inisherin, Elvis, RRR

1 Win

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, The Fabelmans, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Tár, Women Talking

I’ll have a recap up Tuesday night with analysis!

All Quiet Makes Noise at the BAFTA Shortlists

Edward Berger’s All Quiet on the Western Front made an unexpected amount of noise when the British Academy of Film and Television Art (BAFTA) announced their shortlists prior to the final nominations on January 19th. The long lists can vary in size and so can the numbers of eventual nominees coming in two weeks.

It’s a little confusing and hard to keep track of, but one thing is certain. World War I epic Quiet is eligible for the most races with 15 followed by The Banshees of Inisherin at 14. The superb performance from the former only helps its recent surge in the Oscar race (where I elevated it to my 10 for BP contenders on Monday).

Not all pictures had good showings from our British colleagues. This is especially true for The Fabelmans (with a shockingly subpar showing) and Women Talking.

Let’s go through each feature length shortlist with some general comments. Predictions for the nominees will come shortly before the 19th when I’ll delve a bit deeper.

Best Film

Aftersun

All Quiet on the Western Front

The Banshees of Inisherin

Elvis

Everything Everywhere All at Once

The Fabelmans

Living

Tár

Top Gun: Maverick

Triangle of Sadness

Half of these features will make the cut and it’s hard to imagine All Quiet not doing so considering its haul. Same for Banshees would could be a soft frontrunner. It’s also worth noting Everything did just fine. Key pics you won’t find here: Avatar: The Way of Water, Babylon, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, and Women Talking.

Outstanding British Film

Aftersun

The Banshees of Inisherin

Blue Jean

Brian and Charles

Emily

Good Luck to You, Leo Grande

Lady Chatterley’s Lover

Living

The Lost King

Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris

Roald Dahl’s Matilda the Musical

See How They Run

The Swimmers

The Wonder

Plenty of British titles here that aren’t expected to make a dent with the Academy’s voters. Only three of these hopefuls made Best Film and Banshees should have a leg up on Aftersun (which performed splendidly with BAFTA) and Living.

Outstanding Debut by a British Writer, Director or Producer

Aftersun

Blue Jean

Donna

Electric Malady

Emily

Good Luck to You, Leo Grande

Nothing Compares

Rebellion

See How They Run

Wayfinder

This one should be Aftersun all the way considering it’s the only entry vying for the top prize.

Film Not in the English Language

All Quiet on the Western Front

Argentina, 1985

Bardo

Close

Corsage

Decision to Leave

EO

Holy Spider

The Quiet Girl

RRR

While Saint Omer made the director cut, its miss is notable here. Bardo got in, but popped up nowhere else. Even more surprisingly – same goes for RRR. This should be an All Quiet win.

Documentary

All That Breathes

All the Beauty and the Bloodshed

A Bunch of Amateurs

Fire of Love

The Ghost of Richard Harris

Hallelujah: Leonard Cohen, A Journey, A Song

Louis Armstrong’s Black & Blues

McEnroe

Moonage Daydream

Navalny

Like the Academy, Good Night Oppy couldn’t make the shortlist while Descendant is another high profile snub.

Animated Film

The Amazing Maurice

The Bad Guys

Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

Lightyear

Marcel the Shell with Shoes On

Minions: The Rise of Gru

Puss in Boots: The Last Wish

Turning Red

4 of 8 go through. While Pinocchio is out front – don’t sleep on Marcel.

Director

Colm Bairéad, The Quiet Girl

Edward Berger, All Quiet on the Western Front

Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave

Chinonye Chukwu, Till

Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Alice Diop, Saint Omer

Sara Dosa, Fire of Love

Todd Field, Tár

Joseph Kosinski, Top Gun: Maverick

Marie Kreutzer, Corsage

Baz Luhrmann, Elvis

Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin

Sarah Polley, Women Talking

Gina Prince-Bythewood, The Woman King

Maria Schrader, She Said

Charlotte Wells, Aftersun

BAFTA puts up 8 male and 8 female filmmakers on the shortlist before it shrinks to 6 (three of each gender). I’ll have more on who I think gets in later, but how about who didn’t!?!? There’s James Cameron for Avatar (which had a mediocre performance overall). The giant shocker was not seeing Steven Spielberg for The Fabelmans. And this one feels like it could have Oscar implications. I’ve had him listed #1 in Director for months. That placement is in serious jeopardy. I think he still gets makes the Academy’s quintet, but I suspect his #1 status will take a hit when I update in a couple of days.

Leading Actress

Naomi Ackie, Whitney Houston: I Wanna Dance with Somebody

Ana de Armas, Blonde

Cate Blanchett, Tár

Jessica Chastain, The Good Nurse

Viola Davis, The Woman King

Danielle Deadwyler, Till

Lesley Manville, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris

Emma Thompson, Good Luck to You, Leo Grande

Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans

Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once

It’s a bit unexpected seeing Ackie and Chastain over some picks BAFTA might’ve gone for like Vicky Krieps in Corsage and Florence Pugh in The Wonder. Same goes (sort of) for Olivia Colman in Empire of Light. However, it’s worth pointing out that BAFTA also ignored her for The Father and The Lost Daughter (the Academy didn’t). And you won’t see Babylon‘s Margot Robbie in the mix either.

Leading Actor

Austin Butler, Elvis

Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick

Harris Dickinson, Triangle of Sadness

Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin

Brendan Fraser, The Whale

Daniel Kaluuya, Nope

Felix Kammerer, All Quiet on the Western Front

Daryl McCormack, Good Luck to You, Leo Grande

Paul Mescal, Aftersun

Bill Nighy, Living

I have a feeling the six eventual nominees may not include Dickinson, Kaluuya, Kammerer, and McCormack but that’s not a final call. Notable names out include Diego Calva (Babylon), Ralph Fiennes (The Menu), Hugh Jackman (The Son, which was blanked) and Jeremy Pope (The Inspection).

Supporting Actress

Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Hong Chau, The Whale

Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin

Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Dolly De Leon, Triangle of Sadness

Lashana Lynch, The Woman King

Janelle Monae, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

Carey Mulligan, She Said

Emma Thompson, Roald Dahl’s Matilda the Musical

Aimee Lou Wood, Living

Ms. Thompson scored an unanticipated double nod thanks to this one as this 2022 hard to figure out Supporting Actress derby stayed that way. Like the Globes, no Jessie Buckley or Claire Foy from Women Talking.

Supporting Actor

Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin

Tom Hanks, Elvis

Woody Harrelson, Triangle of Sadness

Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin

Brad Pitt, Babylon

Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Eddie Redmayne, The Good Nurse

Albrecht Schuch, All Quiet on the Western Front

Micheal Ward, Empire of Light

Ben Whishaw, Women Talking

Whishaw being the only acting nominee for Women Talking kinda came out of nowhere. So did familiar faces like Hanks and Harrelson over either of the Fabelmans contenders – Paul Dano and Judd Hirsch. Pitt at last lands Babylon an above the line nom.

Original Screenplay

Aftersun

The Banshees of Inisherin

Decision to Leave

Elvis

Everything Everywhere All at Once

The Fabelmans

Good Luck to You, Leo Grande

The Menu

Tár

Triangle of Sadness

Dare I say there’s no real surprises in this race.

Adapted Screenplay

All Quiet on the Western Front

Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

Living

The Quiet Girl

She Said

Top Gun: Maverick

The Whale

Women Talking

The Wonder

This could’ve been where White Noise got a lone nod, but nope. Considering the so-so performance of Women Talking, I wouldn’t automatically think it wins. But… what does?

***For the rest of these races, I’m listing just the shortlisted pics. Forecasted nominees are coming soon enough! I will say The Fabelmans is MIA in places where it was expected to be (especially Cinematography and Score).

Casting

Aftersun

All Quiet on the Western Front

The Banshees of Inisherin

Elvis

Everything Everywhere All at Once

The Fabelmans

Living

Roald Dahl’s Matilda the Musical

Tár

Triangle of Sadness

Cinematography

All Quiet on the Western Front

Amsterdam

Athena

Babylon

The Banshees of Inisherin

The Batman

Elvis

Empire of Light

Tár

Top Gun: Maverick

Costume Design

All Quiet on the Western Front

Amsterdam

Babylon

The Banshees of Inisherin

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Corsage

Elvis

Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris

Roald Dahl’s Matilda the Musical

Editing

Aftersun

All Quiet on the Western Front

Babylon

The Banshees of Inisherin

Decision to Leave

Elvis

Everything Everywhere All at Once

Moonage Daydream

Top Gun: Maverick

Triangle of Sadness

Make Up & Hair

All Quiet on the Western Front

Amsterdam

Babylon

The Batman

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Blonde

Elvis

Emancipation

Roald Dahl’s Matilda the Musical

The Whale

Original Score

All Quiet on the Western Front

Babylon

The Banshees of Inisherin

The Batman

Empire of Light

Everything Everywhere All at Once

Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

Tár

Women Talking

The Wonder

Production Design

All Quiet on the Western Front

Avatar: The Way of Water

Babylon

The Banshees of Inisherin

The Batman

Elvis

Empire of Light

Everything Everywhere All at Once

The Fabelmans

Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

Special Visual Effects

All Quiet on the Western Front

Avatar: The Way of Water

The Batman

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness

Everything Everywhere All at Once

Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore

Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

Jurassic World: Dominion

Top Gun: Maverick

Sound

All Quiet on the Western Front

Avatar: The Way of Water

Babylon

The Batman

Elvis

Everything Everywhere All at Once

Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

Tár

Thirteen Lives

Top Gun: Maverick

Keep an eye out for BAFTA final predictions from these shortlists and the same for the Golden Globes and Critics Choice!

2022 Oscar Predictions: January 2nd Edition

My first Oscar predictions for this new year (coming 22 days prior to nomination morning) comes with a change in Best Picture and other major races.

While I still believe that Babylon could make the BP ten despite mixed reviews and poor word-of-mouth, I have dropped it in favor of Triangle of Sadness.

In Best Director, James Cameron (Avatar: The Way of Water) is in the five to the detriment of Women Talking‘s Sarah Polley.

While Best Actress remains intact, Brendan Fraser is back at #1 for The Whale over Austin Butler as Elvis. This is really semantics. I believe Fraser, Butler, and Colin Farrell are basically 1a, 1b, and 1c at this juncture. It may take upcoming precursors to make it clearer. There’s another shift as Tom Cruise (Top Gun: Maverick) gets the five spot over Hugh Jackman for The Son. I almost went with Aftersun‘s Paul Mescal.

In Supporting Actress, Claire Foy returns over her Women Talking costar Jessie Buckley. This category is still the trickiest acting derby to peg.

We also have 4 new number ones elsewhere. In Documentary Feature, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed vaults again to first. Elvis shimmies to the top in Costume Design while dropping to second in Makeup and Hairstyling with The Whale back at 1. The Fabelmans tops Original Score.

You can read all the movement below!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 3) (E)

4. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 4) (E)

5. Tár (PR: 7) (+2)

6. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 6) (E)

7. Elvis (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Women Talking (PR: 8) (E)

9. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 13) (+4)

10. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 9) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

11. Babylon (PR: 10) (-1)

12. The Whale (PR: 11) (-1)

13. RRR (PR: 14) (+1)

14. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 12) (-2)

15. The Woman King (PR: 15) (E)

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (E)

2. Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)

3. Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 3) (E)

4. Todd Field, Tár (PR: 4) (E)

5. James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sarah Polley, Women Talking (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Edward Berger, All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 7) (E)

8. Ruben Ostlund, Triangle of Sadness (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Baz Luhrmann, Elvis (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Joseph Kosinski, Top Gun: Maverick (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Damien Chazelle, Babylon

S.S. Rajamouli, RRR

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Cate Blanchett, Tár (PR: 1) (E)

2. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)

3. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (E)

4. Danielle Deadwyler, Till (PR: 4) (E)

5. Margot Robbie, Babylon (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Viola Davis, The Woman King (PR: 6) (E)

7. Ana de Armas, Blonde (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Olivia Colman, Empire of Light (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Jennifer Lawrence, Causeway (PR: 9) (E)

10. Emma Thompson, Good Luck to You, Leo Grande (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Naomi Ackie, Whitney Houston: I Wanna Dance with Somebody

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Brendan Fraser, The Whale (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Austin Butler, Elvis (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 3) (E)

4. Bill Nighy, Living (PR: 4) (E)

5. Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Paul Mescal, Aftersun (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Hugh Jackman, The Son (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Tom Hanks, A Man Called Otto (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Gabriel LaBelle, The Fabelmans (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Jeremy Pope, The Inspection (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Diego Calva, Babylon

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 1) (E)

2. Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)

3. Dolly de Leon, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Claire Foy, Women Talking (PR: 9) (+4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jessie Buckley, Women Talking (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Janelle Monae, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Hong Chau, The Whale (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Carey Mulligan, She Said (PR: 10) (E)

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)

2. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (E)

3. Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 3) (E)

4. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans (PR: 4) (E)

5. Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Brian Tyree Henry, Causeway (PR: 6) (E)

7. Ben Whishaw, Women Talking (PR: 7) (E)

8. Brad Pitt, Babylon (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Tom Hanks, Elvis (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Eddie Redmayne, The Good Nurse (PR: 8) (-2)

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (E)

4. Tár (PR: 4) (E)

5. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Aftersun (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Menu (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Babylon (PR: 8) (E)

9. Decision to Leave (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Bardo (PR: 10) (E)

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Women Talking (PR: 1) (E)

2. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 3) (+1)

3. The Whale (PR: 4) (+1)

4. She Said (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Living (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. White Noise (PR: 6) (E)

7. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 8) (+1)

8. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 9) (E)

10. Bones and All (PR: 10) (E)

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 1) (E)

2. Marcel the Shell with Shoes On (PR: 2) (E)

3. Turning Red (PR: 3) (E)

4. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish (PR: 5) (+1)

5. My Father’s Dragon (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Bad Guys (PR: 6 (E)

7. Wendell and Wild (PR: 7) (E)

8. Strange World (PR: 8) (E)

9. Inu-Oh (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Lightyear (PR: 9) (-1)

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 1) (E)

2. Decision to Leave (PR: 2) (E)

3. Saint Omer (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Argentina, 1985 (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Bardo (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Close (PR: 3) (-3)

7. EO (PR: 7) (E)

8. Holy Spider (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Joyland (PR: 8) (-1)

10. The Quiet Girl (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (PR: 3) (+2)

2. Navalny (PR: 1) (-1)

3. All That Breathes (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Fire of Love (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Territory (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Descendant (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Moonage Daydream (PR: 7) (E)

8. Bad Axe (PR: 10) (+2)

9. The Janes (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Retrograde (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)

2. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (E)

4. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 4) (E)

5. Babylon (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Empire of Light (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 7) (E)

8. Bardo (PR: 8) (E)

9. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 9) (E)

10. Tár (PR: 10) (E)

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Elvis (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Babylon (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Woman King (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Fabelmans (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Living (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 8) (E)

9. Corsage (PR: 9) (E)

10. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Women Talking

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)

2. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (E)

4. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 4) (E)

5. Elvis (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Women Talking (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Babylon (PR: 6) (-1)

8. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 8) (E)

9. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 9) (E)

10. Tár (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Whale (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Elvis (PR: 1) (-1)

3. The Batman (PR: 3) (E)

4. Babylon (PR: 4) (E)

5. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Emancipation (PR: 7) (E)

8. Amsterdam (PR: 8) (E)

9. Blonde (PR: 9) (E)

10. Crimes of the Future (PR: 10) (E)

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Women Talking (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Babylon (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 6) (E)

7. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 7) (E)

8. The Woman King (PR: Not Ranked)

9. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 9) (E)

10. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

She Said

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)

2. “Naatu Naatu” from RRR (PR: 2) (E)

3. “Lift Me Up” from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 3) (E)

4. “Ciao Papa” from Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 4) (E)

5. “This Is a Life” from Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 9) (+4)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Applause” from Tell It Like a Woman (PR: 5) (-1)

7. “Carolina” from Where the Crawdads Sing (PR: 6) (-1)

8. “New Body Rhumba” from White Noise (PR: 8) (E)

9. “Stand Up” from Till (PR: 7) (-2)

10. “Nothing is Lost (You Give My Strength)” from Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 10) (E)

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 2) (E)

3. Elvis (PR: 3) (E)

4. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Fabelmans (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 5) (-2)

8. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 9) (E)

10. The Batman (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Banshees of Inisherin

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)

2. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 2) (E)

3. Elvis (PR: 3) (E)

4. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Batman (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 6) (E)

7. Babylon (PR: 7) (E)

8. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 8) (E)

9. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 9) (E)

10. Moonage Daydream (PR: 10) (E)

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 1) (E)

2. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Batman (PR: 3) (E)

4. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness (PR: 4) (E)

5. Nope (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 5) (-1)

7. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Thirteen Lives (PR: 8) (E)

9. Jurassic World: Dominion (PR: 9) (E)

10. Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore (PR: 10) (E)

That equates to these films achieving these numbers in terms of nominations:

11 Nominations

The Fabelmans

8 Nominations

The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once

7 Nominations

Avatar: The Way of Water, Elvis, Top Gun: Maverick

6 Nominations

Babylon

5 Nominations

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

4 Nominations

All Quiet on the Western Front, Tár, Women Talking

3 Nominations

The Batman, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Triangle of Sadness, The Whale

2 Nominations

Living

1 Nomination

All That Breathes, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, Argentina, 1985, Bardo, Decision to Leave, Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, Fire of Love, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, My Father’s Dragon, Navalny, Nope, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, RRR, Saint Omer, She Said, The Territory, Till, Turning Red, The Woman King

2022 Golden Globes Nominations Reaction

The Hollywood Foreign Press Association, after a controversial couple of years which resulted in no aired telecast for the last ceremony, is moving forward with Jerrod Carmichael hosting the show on NBC in a month. The nominations for the 14 cinematic races were unveiled this morning.

I went 54 for 70 on my picks – an improvement over my previous 2021 performance of 49/70. The big winner: Martin McDonagh’s The Banshees of Inisherin. Its 8 nods led all pictures and landed mentions everywhere it was expected to.

On the flip side, it was a disappointing day for Women Talking. Sarah Polley’s expected Oscar contender managed two nods (Screenplay and Score) and missed out on several races where it was thought to be viable.

Let’s take the competitions one by one with my thoughts, shall we?

Best Motion Picture (Drama)

Nominees: Avatar: The Way of Water, Elvis, The Fabelmans, Tár, Top Gun: Maverick

How I Did: 4/5

Per above, the surprise here is Women Talking not making the cut. I had it in instead of Avatar (which is proving itself to be a highly likely hopeful for Oscar’s BP derby). While The Fabelmans could be considered a soft frontrunner, I would say everything but Tár has a shot to win.

Best Motion Picture (Musical/Comedy)

Nominees: Babylon, The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Triangle of Sadness

How I Did: 4/5

I went with The Menu over Triangle but the latter’s inclusion was not unexpected. This is almost certainly a battle between Banshees and Everything.

Best Director

Nominees: James Cameron (Avatar: The Way of Water), Daniels (Everything Everywhere All at Once), Baz Luhrmann (Elvis), Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin), Steven Spielberg (The Fabelmans)

How I Did: 4/5

Like in Best Drama, I went with Women Talking and its maker Sarah Polley instead of James Cameron. Also like that race, Spielberg might be favored but the others could upset the legend.

Best Actress (Drama)

Nominees: Cate Blanchett (Tár), Olivia Colman (Empire of Light), Viola Davis (The Woman King), Ana de Armas (Blonde), Michelle Williams (The Fabelmans)

How I Did: 4/5

Danielle Deadwyler (Till) failing to make the quintet is unexpected as is de Armas’s nod in the Marilyn Monroe biopic (which garnered plenty of poor reviews). You’re going to want to bet on Blanchett in this one.

Best Actor (Drama)

Nominees: Austin Butler (Elvis), Brendan Fraser (The Whale), Hugh Jackman (The Son), Bill Nighy (Living), Jeremy Pope (The Inspection)

How I Did: 3/5

Jackman and Pope in over my selections of Tom Cruise (Top Gun: Maverick) and Paul Mescal (Aftersun). Mr. Cruise whiffing is noticeable. Perhaps the HFPA is still salty about him giving back his Globes during the height of their controversies. Elvis is the only picture in this group that received more than 1 nomination and Butler could certainly emerge victorious. So could Fraser.

Best Actress (Musical/Comedy)

Nominees: Lesley Manville (Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris), Margot Robbie (Babylon), Anya Taylor-Joy (The Menu), Emma Thompson (Good Luck to You, Leo Grande), Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywher All at Once)

How I Did: 5/5 (!)

This went as anticipated and should continue that way with Yeoh taking the trophy in January.

Best Actor (Musical/Comedy)

Nominees: Diego Calva (Babylon), Daniel Craig (Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery), Adam Driver (White Noise), Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin), Ralph Fiennes (The Menu)

How I Did: 4/5

I went with Tom Hanks (A Man Called Otto) instead of Driver. It doesn’t matter much who the other four gentlemen are. This is Farrell’s to lose.

Best Supporting Actress

Nominees: Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever), Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin), Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere All at Once), Dolly de Leon (Triangle of Sadness), Carey Mulligan (She Said)

How I Did: 2/5 (ouch)

Supporting Actress has been a head scratcher all year as I’ve done Oscar projections. That proved true today with my poor performance. I went with Hong Chau (The Whale), Claire Foy (Women Talking), and Janelle Monae (Glass Onion) instead of Bassett, de Leon, and Mulligan. I’d say any of these contestants could win in this wide open field.

Best Supporting Actor

Nominees: Brendan Gleeson (The Banshees of Inisherin), Barry Keoghan (The Banshees of Inisherin), Brad Pitt (Babylon), Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All at Once), Eddie Redmayne (The Good Nurse)

How I Did: 3/5

I had Paul Dano (The Fabelmans) and Tom Hanks (yet again for Elvis), but Koeghan and Redmayne made it. Quan is probably out front but I wouldn’t rule Gleeson out.

Best Screenplay

Nominees: The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Fabelmans, Tár, Women Talking

How I Did: 5/5 (!)

Finally we get something for Women Talking. Yet this race (like Musical/Comedy) is probably either Banshees or Everything.

Best Animated Feature

Nominees: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Inu-Oh, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, Turning Red

How I Did: 4/5

Inu-Oh is the surprise (I said The Bad Guys instead). Pinocchio is favored but I wouldn’t discount Marcel (which is picking up critics prizes).

Best Foreign Language Film

Nominees: All Quiet on the Western Front, Argentina, 1985, Close, Decision to Leave, RRR

How I Did: 4/5

This could be a fascinating one. I don’t see Argentina or Close winning (which I left out for Bardo). The other 3 could.

Best Original Score

Nominees: Babylon, The Banshees of Inisherin, The Fabelmans, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Women Talking

How I Did: 4/5

This is where I should’ve left Avatar out as Banshees got in instead. This could be a close one and I’m not ready to pick a leader.

Best Original Song

Nominees: “Carolina” from Where the Crawdads Sing, “Ciao Papa” from Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, “Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick, “Lift Me Up” from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, “Naatu Naatu” from RRR

How I Did: 4/5

Pop superstar Billie Eilish and “Nobody Like U” was left off for pop superstar Taylor Swift and “Carolina”. Don’t be shocked if this comes down to pop superstars Lady Gaga for “Hold My Hand” and Rihanna for “Lift Me Up”.

That means the following features nabbed these numbers in terms of nominations:

8 Nominations

The Banshees of Inisherin

6 Nominations

Everything Everywhere All at Once

5 Nominations

Babylon, The Fabelmans

3 Nominations

Elvis, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Tár

2 Nominations

Avatar: The Way of Water, Black Panther Wakanda Forever, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, The Menu, RRR, Top Gun: Maverick, Triangle of Sadness, Women Talking

1 Nomination

All Quiet on the Western Front, Argentina, 1985, Blonde, Close, Decision to Leave, Empire of Light, Good Luck to You, Leo Grande, The Good Nurse, The Inspection, Inu-Oh, Living, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, She Said, The Son, Turning Red, The Whale, Where the Crawdads Sing, White Noise, The Woman King

2022 Golden Globe Nomination Predictions

After a couple years of major controversy, the Hollywood Foreign Press Association’s big shindig is back on your television screens with the 80th Golden Globe Awards. The ceremony honoring the year’s best in film and TV returns to NBC on January 10th and the nominations are out on Monday, December 12th.

Readers of my blog are aware that I update my Oscar predictions every week to two weeks. With the Globes, it’s just one shot. As an aside, I don’t forecast the small screen races.

There are 14 categories to consider. As you may recall, the Globes split Drama and Comedy/Musical for Picture and the lead acting derbies. This is not the case with director or supporting. Furthermore, this ceremony has a sole Screenplay race while the Academy differentiates between original and adapted works.

Let’s get to it! For each competition, I’m also giving you my alternate. On Monday, I’ll have a recap up with my thoughts on the nominations and how I performed.

Best Motion Picture – Drama

Elvis

The Fabelmans

Tár

Top Gun: Maverick

Women Talking

Alternate: Avatar: The Way of Water

Best Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy

Babylon

The Banshees of Inisherin

Everything Everywhere All at Once

Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

The Menu

Alternate: Triangle of Sadness

Best Director

Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Baz Luhrmann, Elvis

Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin

Sarah Polley, Women Talking

Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans

Alternate: Todd Field, Tár

Best Actress – Drama

Cate Blanchett, Tár

Olivia Colman, Empire of Light

Viola Davis, The Woman King

Danielle Deadwyler, Till

Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans

Alternate: Jennifer Lawrence, Causeway

Best Actor – Drama

Austin Butler, Elvis

Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick

Brendan Fraser, The Whale

Paul Mescal, Aftersun

Bill Nighy, Living

Alternate: Hugh Jackman, The Son

Best Actress – Musical/Comedy

Lesley Manville, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris

Margot Robbie, Babylon

Anya Taylor-Joy, The Menu

Emma Thompson, Good Luck to You, Leo Grande

Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Alternate: Julia Roberts, Ticket to Paradise

Best Actor – Musical or Comedy

Diego Calva, Babylon

Daniel Craig, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin

Ralph Fiennes, The Menu

Tom Hanks, A Man Called Otto

Alternate: Adam Driver, White Noise

Best Supporting Actress

Hong Chau, The Whale

Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin

Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Claire Foy, Women Talking

Janelle Monae, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

Alternate: Jessie Buckley, Women Talking

Best Supporting Actor

Paul Dano, The Fabelmans

Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin

Tom Hanks, Elvis

Brad Pitt, Babylon

Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Alternate: Ben Whishaw, Women Talking

Best Screenplay

The Banshees of Inisherin

Everything Everywhere All at Once

The Fabelmans

Tár

Women Talking

Alternate: Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

Best Animated Motion Picture

The Bad Guys

Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

Marcel the Shell with Shoes On

Puss in Boots: The Last Wish

Turning Red

Alternate: My Father’s Dragon

Best Foreign Language Motion Picture

All Quiet on the Western Front

Argentina, 1985

Bardo

Decision to Leave

RRR

Alternate: Saint Omer

Best Original Score

Avatar: The Way of Water

Babylon

The Fabelmans

Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

Women Talking

Alternate: The Banshees of Inisherin

Best Original Song

“Ciao Papa” from Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

“Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick

“Lift Me Up” from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

“Naatu Naatu” from RRR

“Nobody Like U” from Turning Red

Alternate: “Carolina” from Where the Crawdads Sing

And that means I’m projecting the following number of mentions for these pictures:

6 Nominations

The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Fabelmans

5 Nominations

Babylon, Women Talking

4 Nominations

Elvis

3 Nominations

Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, The Menu, Tár

2 Nominations

RRR, Turning Red, The Whale

1 Nomination

Aftersun, All Quiet on the Western Front, Argentina, 1985, Avatar: The Way of Water, The Bad Guys, Bardo, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Decision to Leave, Empire of Light, Good Luck to You, Leo Grande, Living, A Man Called Otto, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, Till, The Woman King

2022 Oscar Predictions: The State of the Best Actress Race

We have reached Best Actress in my deep dives of the major Oscar races. If you didn’t catch my takes on the supporting derbies and lead actor, you can access them here:

Before we get to this very competitive Actress competition, let’s see how I did at this point in the calendar from 2019-21. Three years ago, I managed to identify all 5 eventual nominees – winner Renee Zellweger (Judy), Cynthia Erivo (Harriet), Scarlett Johansson (Marriage Story), Saoirse Ronan (Little Women), and Charlize Theron (Bombshell). For the late October/early November frame in 2020 and 2021, I correctly called 3 of the 5. In 2020, that was Frances McDormand (Nomadland), who won her third Oscar along with Viola Davis (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom) and Vanessa Kirby (Pieces of a Woman). Andra Day (The United States vs. Billie Holiday) and Carey Mulligan (Promising Young Woman) were mentioned in Other Possibilities. The victor was also named last year with Jessica Chastain for The Eyes of Tammy Faye as well as Olivia Colman (The Lost Daughter) and Kristen Stewart (Spencer). Penelope Cruz (Parallel Mothers) and Nicole Kidman (Being the Ricardos) were in Other Possibilities.

So if the last three years are any precursor, you should find the eventual quintet in my ten picks! Frances McDormand could have company with performers sporting a trio of gold statues. A Supporting Actress winner in 2004 for The Aviator and lead actress recipient for 2013’s Blue Jasmine, Cate Blanchett is drawing some career best kudos for Tár. She’s been in my #1 spot for weeks and if she wins, she’d join McDormand, Katherine Hepburn, and Ingrid Bergman as the only actresses to win more than two Oscars.

Her main competition could come from several performers. Michelle Yeoh is receiving a massive push for Everything Everywhere All at Once, which is a threat to win numerous big races including Best Picture. There’s another Michelle and it’s a surprise… Michelle Williams. As I discussed in my Supporting Actress write-up, her performance in The Fabelmans would likely be a guaranteed winner in that category. With the more competitive vibe of lead actress, it’s not even a guarantee that she makes it in.

While Till may struggle to get recognition elsewhere despite strong reviews and an A+ Cinemascore, Danielle Deadwyler looks pretty strong to make the cut. On the other hand, so-so critical reaction could prevent Olivia Colman (Empire of Light) from getting her fourth nod in five years.

There are two performances yet to be seen that could both make a splash: Margot Robbie for Babylon and Naomi Ackie as Whitney Houston in I Wanna Dance with Somebody. It’s easy to envision either rising up if the reactions are positive enough.

Despite solid box office, Viola Davis could face an uphill battle for The Woman King. That narrative could change if both Robbie and Ackie falter. Some intensely negative audience and critical buzz for Blonde may leave Ana de Armas out. And there’s always potential dark horses. Emma Thompson will probably get a Golden Globes nom for Good Luck to You, Leo Grande, but Academy inclusion could be a reach. Women Talking‘s Rooney Mara might be ignored in favor of her supporting costars like Claire Foy and Jessie Buckley. Causeway may not draw enough attention for Jennifer Lawrence to make it and the same holds true for The Wonder‘s Florence Pugh. Decision to Leave (despite having a chance to take International Feature Film) may not see its cast be a factor. That would leave out Tang Wei.

Here’s my state of this race!

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1 . Cate Blanchett, Tár (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)

3. Danielle Deadwyler, Till (PR: 3) (E)

4. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans (PR: 4) (E)

5. Margot Robbie, Babylon (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Olivia Colman, Empire of Light (PR: 6) (E)

7. Naomi Ackie, I Wanna Dance with Somebody (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Viola Davis, The Woman King (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Jennifer Lawrence, Causeway (PR: 9) (E)

10. Rooney Mara, Women Talking (PR: 10) (E)

Best Director is up next!