2020 Oscar Predictions: October 22nd Edition

The big news of the week when it comes to Oscar forecasting unquestionably involves Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, the forthcoming Netflix feature starring Viola Davis and Chadwick Boseman. The studio has confirmed that the late Mr. Boseman will contend in the lead actor race and that upends my predictions in both that category and Supporting Actor. For weeks, I have had Boseman listed in 1st position in the latter. He now moves to #2 in lead behind Anthony Hopkins in The Father. 

This significant move shifts my thinking when it comes to other performers. Most notably, I am now guesstimating that Warner Bros. will campaign for Daniel Kaluuya’s work in Judas and the Black Messiah in the supporting field. To be clear, this is not confirmed and is simply speculation. However, that alteration means Kaluuya is now listed in first for Supporting Actor. This activity also means Boseman could potentially be a double nominee as Netflix is likely to mount a campaign for him with Da 5 Bloods in supporting. I have not listed him in the top ten, but it could certainly happen. The same dynamic applies to Glynn Turman in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom. In the coming weeks, we will see if Boseman and Turman materialize in the top ten Supporting Actor players.

While the Actor derbies see those changes (which include Bill Murray now making the cut in Supporting Actor for On the Rocks, out tomorrow on Apple TV), Picture, Director, Actress, and Supporting Actress have remained the same.

And with that, let’s see how I have each contest shaping up!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mank (Previous Ranking: 1)

2. Nomadland (PR: 2)

3. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 3)

4. News of the World (PR: 4)

5. One Night in Miami (PR: 5)

6. The Father (PR: 7)

7. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 6)

8. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 8)

9. Minari (PR: 9)

Other Possibilities:

10. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)

11. Soul (PR: 11)

12. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 13)

13. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 12)

14. Respect (PR: 14)

15. The Midnight Sky (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Ammonite

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. David Fincher, Mank (PR: 1)

2. Chloe Zhao, Nomadland (PR: 2)

3. Paul Greengrass, News of the World (PR: 3)

4. Regina King, One Night in Miami (PR: 5)

5. Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Florian Zeller, The Father (PR: 6)

7. George C. Wolfe, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 8)

8. Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 7)

9. Lee Isaac Chung, Minari (PR: 9)

10. Shaka King, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)

2. Frances McDormand, Nomadland (PR: 2)

3. Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 3)

4. Jennifer Hudson, Respect (PR: 4)

5. Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit (PR: 7)

7. Sophia Loren, The Life Ahead (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman (PR: 9)

9. Kate Winslet, Ammonite (PR: 6)

10. Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 8)

Dropped Out:

Meryl Streep, The Prom

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Anthony Hopkins, The Father (PR: 1)

2. Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: Not Ranked – moved from Supporting)

3. Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 2)

4. Gary Oldman, Mank (PR: 3)

5. Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Tom Hanks, News of the World (PR: 6)

7. Steven Yeun, Minari (PR: 7)

8. Tom Holland, Cherry (PR: 8)

9. Stanley Tucci, Supernova (PR: 9)

10. Michael Fassbender, Next Goal Wins (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

George Clooney, The Midnight Sky

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 1)

2. Olivia Colman, The Father (PR: 2)

3. Amanda Seyfried, Mank (PR: 3)

4. Helena Zengel, News of the World (PR: 4)

5. Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 6)

7. Mary J. Blige, Respect (PR: 7)

8. Audra McDonald, Respect (PR: 8)

9. Yuh-Jung Youn, Minari (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Swankie, Nomadland (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

Natasha Lyonne, The United States vs. Billie Holiday

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: Not Ranked – moved from Best Actor)

2. Mark Rylance, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 2)

3. Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami (PR: 3)

4. Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 5)

5. Bill Murray, On the Rocks (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

6. Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami (PR: 4)

7. Charles Dance, Mank (PR: 10)

8. Frank Langella, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 8)

10. David Strathairn, Nomadland (PR: 6)

Dropped Out:

Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – moved to Best Actor

Lakeith Stanfield, Judas and the Black Messiah

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mank (PR: 1)

2. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 2)

3. Minari (PR: 3)

4. Soul (PR: 5)

5. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 6)

7. On the Rocks (PR: 7)

8. Promising Young Woman (PR: 9)

9. Never Rarely Sometimes Always (PR: 10)

10. Palm Springs (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Respect

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Nomadland (PR: 1)

2. One Night in Miami (PR: 2)

3. The Father (PR: 3)

4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 4)

5. News of the World (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. I’m Thinking of Ending Things (PR: 7)

7. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 6)

8. First Cow (PR: 9)

9. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 8)

10. Next Goal Wins (PR: 10)

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Soul (PR: 1)

2. Wolfwalkers (PR: 2)

3. Over the Moon (PR: 3)

4. Onward (PR: 4)

5. The Croods: A New Age (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Connected (PR: 6)

7. The Willoughbys (PR: 7)

8. Earwig and the Witch (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Lupin III: The First (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Calamity, a Childhood of Martha Jane Cannary (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

Trolls World Tour

Bombay Rose

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dick Johnson Is Dead (PR: 2)

2. Totally Under Control (PR: 3)

3. Crip Camp (PR: 1)

4. Boys State (PR: 5)

5. The Dissident (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 6)

7. The Truffle Hunters (PR: 7)

8. 76 Days (PR: 8)

9. I Am Greta (PR: Not Ranked)

10. MLK/FBI (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Welcome to Chechnya

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Quo Vadis, Aida? (PR: 1)

2. Another Round (PR: 2)

3. New Order (PR: 3)

4. My Little Sister (PR: 9)

5. Night of the Kings (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Disciple (PR: 5)

7. The Life Ahead (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Never Gonna Snow Again (PR: 10)

9. A Sun (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Wife of a Spy (PR: 6)

Dropped Out:

Atlantis

Ema 

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mank (PR: 1)

2. Nomadland (PR: 2)

3. News of the World (PR: 3)

4. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 5)

5. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Tenet (PR: 8)

7. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 6)

8. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 9)

9. One Night in Miami (PR: 10)

10. I’m Thinking of Ending Things (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Midnight Sky

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mank (PR: 1)

2. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 2)

3. Emma (PR: 3)

4. Coming 2 America (PR: 4)

5. Mulan (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Rebecca (PR: 6)

7. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 9)

8. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 8)

9. Death on the Nile (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Prom (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

News of the World

Ammonite

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)

2. Mank (PR: 2)

3. News of the World (PR: 5)

4. Nomadland (PR: 3)

5. The Father (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 7)

7. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 8)

8. One Night in Miami (PR: 6)

9. Tenet (PR: 10)

10. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 9)

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 3)

2. Birds of Prey (PR: 1)

3. Emma (PR: 8)

4. Mank (PR: 2)

5. Coming 2 America (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 5)

7. Mulan (PR: 6)

8. Respect (PR: 7)

9. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Death on the Nile (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The United States vs. Billie Holiday

The Trial of the Chicago 7

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Soul (PR: 1)

2. News of the World (PR: 2)

3. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 6)

4. Mank (PR: 4)

5. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Over the Moon (PR: 10)

7. Ammonite (PR: 5)

8. One Night in Miami (PR: 8)

9. The Midnight Sky (PR: 7)

10. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Tenet

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “Speak Now” from One Night in Miami (PR: 1)

2. “Rocket to the Moon” from Over the Moon (PR: 2)

3. “Seen” from The Life Ahead (PR: Not Ranked)

4. “Turntables” from All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 3)

5. “Free” from The One and Only Ivan (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Hear My Voice” from The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 6)

7. “Never Break” from Giving Voice (PR: 4)

8. “Only the Young” from Miss Americana (PR: 7)

9. “Husavik” from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga (PR: 9)

10. “Carry Me with You” from Onward (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

“Love Myself” from The High Note

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mank (PR: 1)

2. News of the World (PR: 2)

3. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 3)

4. Mulan (PR: 4)

5. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 8)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 6)

7. Rebecca (PR: 5)

8. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 9)

9. Emma (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Death on the Nile (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Ammonite

Hillbilly Elegy

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Tenet (PR: 1)

2. News of the World (PR: 2)

3. Sound of Metal (PR: 5)

4. Mank (PR: 7)

5. Soul (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 6)

7. Greyhound (PR: 4)

8. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 8)

9. Respect (PR: 9)

10. The Prom (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Midnight Sky

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Tenet (PR: 1)

2. The Midnight Sky (PR: 2)

3. Greyhound (PR: 3)

4. Mulan (PR: 4)

5. The Invisible Man (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sonic the Hedgehog (PR: 6)

7. The Call of the Wild (PR: 8)

8. Birds of Prey (PR: 7)

9. Dolittle (PR: 9)

10. The Old Guard (PR: 10)

And that equates to these pictures getting the following number of nominations:

12 Nominations

Mank

9 Nominations

News of the World

8 Nominations

The Trial of the Chicago 7

7 Nominations

Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

6 Nominations

Nomadland

5 Nominations

Da 5 Bloods, The Father, One Night in Miami

4 Nominations

Soul

3 Nominations

Mulan

2 Nominations

Coming 2 America, Emma, Hillbilly Elegy, Minari, Over the Moon, Tenet

1 Nomination

All In: The Fight for Democracy, Ammonite, Another Round, Birds of Prey, Boys State, Crip Camp, The Croods: A New Age, Dick Johnson Is Dead, The Dissident, Greyhound, The Invisible Man, Judas and the Black Messiah, The Life Ahead, The Midnight Sky, My Little Sister, New Order, Night of the Kings, The One and Only Ivan, On the Rocks, Onward, The Personal History of David Copperfield, Pieces of a Woman, Quo Vadis, Aida?, Respect, Totally Under Control, Wolfwalkers

2020 Oscar Predictions: October 15th Edition

The weekly Oscar predictions keep coming as developments from the past 7 days have altered a couple of key races. Most prominent is Best Actress, a potentially crowded field that saw the debut of French Exit with Michelle Pfeiffer. The pic debuted to mixed reviews though critics did praise her work. That said, she moves out of the top 5 and so does Kate Winslet in Ammonite. The two new performers joining the final five: Amy Adams in Hillbilly Elegy and Jennifer Hudson in Respect. 

Speaking of Elegy, the Netflix drama debuted its first trailer this week. Reaction was mixed, but it looks to me that Glenn Close especially solidified her status as a front runner in Supporting Actress.

In Best Actor, there’s movement as well since Riz Ahmed in Sound of Metal seems to be gaining steam. He moves into the top five with Tom Hanks in News of the World dropping out. And there’s changes in Supporting Actor where we’re still waiting for category placement to be determined. I moved Kingsley Ben-Adir (One Night in Miami) back to Supporting and he knocks out Yahya Abdul-Mateen II from The Trial of the Chicago 7. 

Lastly, Pixar’s Soul had its review embargo lifted prior to its Christmas streaming release. Feedback is very solid with some critics proclaiming it’s in the upper echelon on the studio’s work. It could become the fourth animated feature to get a Best Picture nod. For now, I’m saying it’s definitely the heavy favorite to win Animated Feature but it could miss the cut in the biggest race of all.

And with that, the updates are below!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mank (Previous Ranking: 1)

2. Nomadland (PR: 2)

3. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 3)

4. News of the World (PR: 4)

5. One Night in Miami (PR: 6)

6. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 5)

7. The Father (PR: 7)

8. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 8)

9. Minari (PR: 9)

Other Possibilities:

10. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 11)

11. Soul (PR: 10)

12. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 12)

13. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Respect (PR: 14)

15. Ammonite (PR: 13)

Dropped Out:

The White Tiger

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. David Fincher, Mank (PR: 1)

2. Chloe Zhao, Nomadland (PR: 2)

3. Paul Greengrass, News of the World (PR: 3)

4. Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 4)

5. Regina King, One Night in Miami (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Florian Zeller, The Father (PR: 6)

7. Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 7)

8. George C. Wolfe, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 8)

9. Lee Isaac Chung, Minari (PR: 9)

10. Shaka King, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)

2. Frances McDormand, Nomadland (PR: 2)

3. Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 6)

4. Jennifer Hudson, Respect (PR: 7)

5. Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Kate Winslet, Ammonite (PR: 4)

7. Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit (PR: 5)

8. Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 8)

9. Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman (PR: 10)

10. Meryl Streep, The Prom (PR: 9)

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Anthony Hopkins, The Father (PR: 1)

2. Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 2)

3. Gary Oldman, Mank (PR: 3)

4. Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 4)

5. Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal (PR: 8)

Other Possibilities:

6. Tom Hanks, News of the World (PR: 6)

7. Steven Yeun, Minari (PR: 7)

8. Tom Holland, Cherry (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Stanley Tucci, Supernova (PR: Not Ranked)

10. George Clooney, The Midnight Sky (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami (moved to Supporting Actor)

Matt Damon, Stillwater

Joaquin Phoenix, C’Mon C’Mon

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 1)

2. Olivia Colman, The Father (PR: 2)

3. Amanda Seyfried, Mank (PR: 5)

4. Helena Zengel, News of the World (PR: 4)

5. Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 6)

7. Mary J. Blige, Respect (PR: 10)

8. Audra McDonald, Respect (PR: 7)

9. Natasha Lyonne, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 9)

10. Swankie, Nomadland (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Lily Collins, Mank

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)

2. Mark Rylance, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 2)

3. Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami (PR: Not Ranked)

4. Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami (PR: 4)

5. Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. David Strathairn, Nomadland (PR: 7)

7. Bill Murray, On the Rocks (PR: 6)

8. Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 3)

9. Lakeith Stanfield, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 8)

10. Charles Dance, Mank (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

Tom Pelphrey, Mank

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mank (PR: 1)

2. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 2)

3. Minari (PR: 3)

4. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)

5. Soul (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 6)

7. On the Rocks (PR: 7)

8. Respect (PR: 9)

9. Promising Young Woman (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Never Rarely Sometimes Always (PR: 8)

Dropped Out:

Stillwater

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Nomadland (PR: 1)

2. One Night in Miami (PR: 4)

3. The Father (PR: 3)

4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 2)

5. News of the World (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 6)

7. I’m Thinking of Ending Things (PR: 9)

8. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 7)

9. First Cow (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Next Goal Wins (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

French Exit

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Soul (PR: 1)

2. Wolfwalkers (PR: 2)

3. Over the Moon (PR: 3)

4. Onward (PR: 4)

5. The Croods: A New Age (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Connected (PR: 7)

7. The Willoughbys (PR: 6)

8. Trolls World Tour (PR: 9)

9. Bombay Rose (PR: 8)

10. Calamity, a Childhood of Martha Jane (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Earwig and the Witch

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Crip Camp (PR: 1)

2. Dick Johnson Is Dead (PR: 2)

3. Totally Under Control (PR: 7)

4. The Dissident (PR: 5)

5. Boys State (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities:

6. All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 4)

7. The Truffle Hunters (PR: 6)

8. 76 Days (PR: 8)

9. MLK/FBI (PR: 9)

10. Welcome to Chechnya (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Notturno 

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Quo Vadis, Aida? (PR: 1)

2. Another Round (PR: 2)

3. New Order (PR: 3)

4. Night of the Kings (PR: 4)

5. The Disciple (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wife of a Spy (PR: 7)

7. Atlantis (PR: 9)

8. Ema (PR: Not Ranked)

9. My Little Sister (PR: 6)

10. Never Gonna Snow Again (PR: 8)

Dropped Out:

A Sun

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mank (PR: 1)

2. Nomadland (PR: 2)

3. News of the World (PR: 3)

4. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 5)

5. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 7)

7. The Midnight Sky (PR: 8)

8. Tenet (PR: 6)

9. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 10)

10. One Night in Miami (PR: 9)

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mank (PR: 1)

2. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 2)

3. Emma (PR: 3)

4. Coming 2 America (PR: 8)

5. Mulan (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Rebecca (PR: Not Ranked)

7. News of the World (PR: 4)

8. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 6)

9. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 7)

10. Ammonite (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

Death on the Nile

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)

2. Mank (PR: 2)

3. Nomadland (PR: 3)

4. The Father (PR: 7)

5. News of the World (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. One Night in Miami (PR: 6)

7. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 5)

8. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 8)

9. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 9)

10. Tenet (PR: 10)

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Birds of Prey (PR: 1)

2. Mank (PR: 3)

3. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 2)

4. Coming 2 America (PR: 5)

5. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

6. Mulan (PR: 4)

7. Respect (PR: 6)

8. Emma (PR: 9)

9. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 10)

10. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 8)

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Soul (PR: 2)

2. News of the World (PR: 3)

3. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)

4. Mank (PR: 1)

5. Ammonite (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 5)

7. The Midnight Sky (PR: 8)

8. One Night in Miami (PR: 6)

9. Tenet (PR: 9)

10. Over the Moon (PR: 7)

Dropped Out:

Minari

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “Speak Now” from One Night in Miami (PR: 1)

2. “Rocket to the Moon” from Over the Moon (PR: 2)

3. “Turntables” from All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 3)

4. “Never Break” from Giving Voice (PR: 4)

5. “Free” from The One and Only Ivan (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Hear My Voice” from The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 6)

7. “Only the Young” from Miss Americana (PR: 7)

8. “Love Myself” from The High Note (PR: Not Ranked)

9. “Husavik” from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga (PR: 8)

10. “Carried Me with You” from Onward (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

“Seen” from The Life Ahead

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mank (PR: 1)

2. News of the World (PR: 2)

3. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 5)

4. Mulan (PR: 4)

5. Rebecca (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 3)

7. Ammonite (PR: 8)

8. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Judas and and the Black Messiah (PR: 6)

10. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Death on the Nile

The Midnight Sky

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Tenet (PR: 1)

2. News of the World (PR: 3)

3. Soul (PR: 2)

4. Greyhound (PR: 6)

5. Sound of Metal (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 8)

7. Mank (PR: 4)

8. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 7)

9. Respect (PR: 9)

10. The Midnight Sky (PR: 10)

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Tenet (PR: 1)

2. The Midnight Sky (PR: 2)

3. Greyhound (PR: 3)

4. Mulan (PR: 4)

5. The Invisible Man (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sonic the Hedgehog (PR: 6)

7. Birds of Prey (PR: 8)

8. The Call of the Wild (PR: 7)

9. Dolittle (PR: 10)

10. The Old Guard (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Free Guy 

And that means I am estimating the following movies end up with these numbers:

11 Nominations

Mank

9 Nominations

News of the World

7 Nominations

Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, The Trial of the Chicago 7

6 Nominations

Nomadland, One Night in Miami

5 Nominations

Da 5 Bloods, The Father

4 Nominations

Soul

3 Nominations

Hillbilly Elegy, Mulan

2 Nominations

Ammonite, Coming 2 America, Greyhound, Minari, Over the Moon, Sound of Metal, Tenet

1 Nomination

All In: The Fight for Democracy, Another Round, Birds of Prey, Boys State, Crip Camp, The Croods: A New Age, Dick Johnson Is Dead, The Disciple, The Dissident, Emma, Giving Voice, The Invisible Man, Judas and the Black Messiah, The Midnight Sky, New Order, Night of the Kings, The One and Only Ivan, Onward, Pieces of a Woman, Quo Vadis, Aida?, Rebecca, Respect, Totally Under Control, Wolfwalkers

2020 Oscar Predictions: October 8th Edition

As much as I want to predict Mel Gibson’s Santa Claus revenge tale Fatman in all categories based on its bonkers trailer, I shall refrain. However, there is more news to be discussed in my latest round of Oscar predictions.

Speaking of trailers, we got our first looks at two major contenders this week: David Fincher’s Mank (still holding in 1st place in Picture and Director and more) and News of the World from Paul Greengrass (with an impressive 10 predictions). Mank, by the way, leads all contenders with 12 and that takes over last week’s leader The Trial of the Chicago 7. 

We also learned that Dune and No Time to Die have officially moved out of contention due to release date changes. I had Dune down for 8 nominations last week. I also listed the theme song from No Time to Die (performed by Billie Eilish) in first place for Original Song. These drops are reflected below.

Other developments:

  • Picture, Director, Actor, and Actress remain unchanged. I will note that French Exit will screen this weekend for critics and we will have a better idea as to Michelle Pfeiffer’s viability and if it could be a contender in other categories.
  • While Supporting Actor stays intact, I have moved Amanda Seyfried’s work in Mank in the Supporting Actress five over Ellen Burstyn in Pieces of a Woman. 

With that, let’s get to the latest guesstimates!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mank (Previous Ranking: 1)

2. Nomadland (PR: 2)

3. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 3)

4. News of the World (PR: 4)

5. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 6)

6. One Night in Miami (PR: 5)

7. The Father (PR: 7)

8. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 8)

9. Minari (PR: 9)

Other Possibilities:

10. Soul (PR: 10)

11. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 11)

12. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 13)

13. Ammonite (PR: 14)

14. Respect (PR: Not Ranked)

15. The White Tiger (PR: 15)

Dropped Out:

Dune

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. David Fincher, Mank (PR: 1)

2. Chloe Zhao, Nomadland (PR: 2)

3. Paul Greengrass, News of the World (PR: 3)

4. Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 5)

5. Regina King, One Night in Miami (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Florian Zeller, The Father (PR: 6)

7. Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 9)

8. George C. Wolfe, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 7)

9. Lee Isaac Chung, Minari (PR: 8)

10. Shaka King, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Denis Villeneuve, Dune

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)

2. Frances McDormand, Nomadland (PR: 2)

3. Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 3)

4. Kate Winslet, Ammonite (PR: 4)

5. Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 6)

7. Jennifer Hudson, Respect (PR: 7)

8. Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday

9. Meryl Streep, The Prom (PR: 10)

10. Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman (PR: 9)

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Anthony Hopkins, The Father (PR: 1)

2. Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 2)

3. Gary Oldman, Mank (PR: 3)

4. Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 5)

5. Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Tom Hanks, News of the World (PR: 6)

7. Steven Yeun, Minari (PR: 7)

8. Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal (PR: 8)

9. Matt Damon, Stillwater (PR: 9)

10. Joaquin Phoenix, C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 10)

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 1)

2. Olivia Colman, The Father (PR: 2)

3. Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite (PR: 3)

4. Helena Zengel, News of the World (PR: 5)

5. Amanda Seyfried, Mank (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 4)

7. Audra McDonald, Respect (PR: 7)

8. Lily Collins, Mank (PR: 8)

9. Natasha Lyonne, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 9)

10. Mary J. Blige, Respect (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Abigail Breslin, Stillwater

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)

2. Mark Rylance, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 2)

3. Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 4)

4. Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami (PR: 3)

5. Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Bill Murray, On the Rocks (PR: 6)

7. David Strathairn, Nomadland (PR: 10)

8. Lakeith Stanfield, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 7)

9. Tom Pelphrey, Mank (PR: 8)

10. Charles Dance, Mank (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Jonathan Majors, Da 5 Bloods

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mank (PR: 1)

2. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 2)

3. Minari (PR: 5)

4. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 3)

5. Soul (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 7)

7. On the Rocks (PR: 6)

8. Never Rarely Sometimes Always (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Respect (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Stillwater (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

Ammonite

C’Mon C’Mon

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Nomadland (PR: 1)

2. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 4)

3. The Father (PR: 3)

4. One Night in Miami (PR: 2)

5. News of the World (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 6)

7. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 8)

8. French Exit (PR: 10)

9. I’m Thinking of Ending Things (PR: 9)

10. Next Goal Wins (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Dune

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Soul (PR: 1)

2. Over the Moon (PR: 2)

3. Wolfwalkers (PR: 3)

4. Onward (PR: 4)

5. The Croods: A New Age (PR: 5)

Predicted Nominees:

6. The Willoughbys (PR: 6)

7. Connected (PR: 7)

8. Bombay Rose (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Trolls World Tour (PR: 9)

10. Earwig and the Witch (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Rumble

Ride Your Wave

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Crip Camp (PR: 1)

2. Dick Johnson Is Dead (PR: 4)

3. Boys State (PR: 2)

4. All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 3)

5. The Dissident (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Truffle Hunters (PR: 8)

7. Totally Under Control (PR: Not Ranked)

8. 76 Days (PR: Not Ranked)

9. MLK/FBI (PR: 7)

10. Notturno (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Spaceship Earth

John Lewis: Good Trouble

Miss Americana

On the Record 

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Quo Vadis, Aida? (PR: 1)

2. Another Round (PR: 6)

3. New Order (PR: Not Ranked)

4. Night of the Kings (PR: 3)

5. The Disciple (PR: 2)

Other Possibilities:

6. My Little Sister (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Wife of a Spy (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Never Gonna Snow Again (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Atlantis (PR: 5)

10. A Sun (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Ema

The Life Ahead

Young Ahmed

Memory House 

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mank (PR: 1)

2. Nomadland (PR: 2)

3. News of the World (PR: 3)

4. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 5)

5. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Tenet (PR: 10)

7. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 8)

8. The Midnight Sky (PR: Not Ranked)

9. One Night in Miami (PR: 7)

10. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Dune

Ammonite

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mank (PR: 1)

2. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 5)

3. Emma (PR: 3)

4. News of the World (PR: 4)

5. Mulan (PR: 9)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 2)

7. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 10)

8. Coming 2 America (PR: 6)

9. Death on the Nile (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Ammonite (PR: 7)

Dropped Out:

Dune

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)

2. Mank (PR: 2)

3. Nomadland (PR: 4)

4. News of the World (PR: 3)

5. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. One Night in Miami (PR: 7)

7. The Father (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 9)

9. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 10)

10. Tenet (PR: 8)

Dropped Out:

Dune

Best Makeup and Hairstyling 

Predicted Nominees:

1. Birds of Prey (PR: 3)

2. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: Not Ranked)

3. Mank (PR: 1)

4. Mulan (PR: 5)

5. Coming 2 America (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Respect (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: Not Ranked)

8. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 6)

9. Emma (PR: 8)

10, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Dune

No Time to Die

Wonder Woman 1984

Ammonite

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mank (PR: 1)

2. Soul (PR: 2)

3. News of the World (PR: 6)

4. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 3)

5. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. One Night in Miami (PR: 8)

7. Over the Moon (PR: 9)

8. The Midnight Sky (PR: 7)

9. Tenet (PR: 10)

10. Minari (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Dune

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “Speak Now” from One Night in Miami (PR: 5)

2. “Rocket to the Moon” from Over the Moon (PR: 7)

3. “Turntables” from All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: Not Ranked)

4. “Never Break” from Giving Voice (PR: 9)

5. “Free” from The One and Only Ivan (PR: 2)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Hear My Voice” from The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 4)

7. “Only the Young” from Miss Americana (PR: 3)

8. “Husavik” from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga (PR: 6)

9. “Carried Me with You” from Onward (PR: 8)

10. “Seen” from The Life Ahead (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

“No Time to Die” from No Time to Die

“See What You’ve Done” from Belly of the Beast

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mank (PR: 1)

2. News of the World (PR: 3)

3. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 5)

4. Mulan (PR: 4)

5. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

6. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)

7. Rebecca (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Ammonite (PR: 6)

9. Death on the Nile (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Midnight Sky (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Dune

One Night in Miami

Tenet

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Tenet (PR: 1)

2. Soul (PR: 3)

3. News of the World (PR: 7)

4. Mank (PR: Not Ranked)

5. Sound of Metal (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Greyhound (PR: Not Ranked)

7. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 9)

8. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Respect (PR: 5)

10. The Midnight Sky (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Dune

The Invisible Man

No Time to Die

Wonder Woman 1984

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Tenet (PR: 2)

2. The Midnight Sky (PR: Not Ranked)

3. Greyhound (PR: 3)

4. Mulan (PR: 6)

5. The Invisible Man (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sonic the Hedgehog (PR: Not Ranked)

7. The Call of the Wild (PR: 7)

8. Birds of Prey (PR: 10)

9. Free Guy (PR: 9)

10. Dolittle (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Dune

Wonder Woman 1984

No Time to Die

That equates to the following numbers of nominations for features:

12 Nominations

Mank

10 Nominations

News of the World, The Trial of the Chicago 7

7 Nominations

Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

6 Nominations

Da 5 Bloods, Nomadland, One Night in Miami

4 Nominations

The Father, Mulan, Soul

2 Nominations

All In: The Fight for Democracy, Ammonite, Minari, Over the Moon, Tenet

1 Nomination

Birds of Prey, Boys State, Coming 2 America, Crip Camp, The Croods: A New Age, Dick Johnson Is Dead, The Disciple, The Dissident, Emma, French Exit, Giving Voice, Greyhound, Hillbilly Elegy, The Invisible Man, Judas and the Black Messiah, The Midnight Sky, New Order, Night of the Kings, The One and Only Ivan, Onward, Pieces of a Woman, Sound of Metal, Wolfwalkers

No Time to Dune

If you felt obligated to write out a 2020 movie release schedule in pencil lately, it would be decimated with cross outs and erasure marks. Quite frankly, it’s tough to keep up with for movie lovers. In the past few days, it’s become even more pronounced and it’s more evidence that theaters simply aren’t ready for tentpole releases.

This was evident in July when Christopher Nolan’s Tenet wildly underperformed stateside. It served as a signal to studios that it’s better to wait and most of the delays have moved into 2021. Dune, the eagerly awaited latest effort from Denis Villeneuve, is the latest push. Originally scheduled for November and then delayed to December, Warner Bros. (who put out Tenet) has now slated it for October 2021.

The Dune activity occurs just after the new 007 pic No Time to Die announced a new Easter 2021 date. It was originally meant to hit theaters in February of this year. This follows Black Widow moving to May 2021 (original date was May 2020) and that meant the MCU’s Eternals traveled from February 2021 to November 2021. And that was around the time Steven Spielberg’s West Side Story received a year long delay to Christmastime ’21.

Still following? Yeah, I know. So what’s left for 2020? In short, nothing soon except for cinematic table scraps like The War with Grandpa with Robert De Niro (this Friday) and Honest Thief with Liam Neeson (next Friday).

Pixar is scheduled to unveil Soul in November. We shall see if they decide not to go the Disney+ route like they did with Mulan and other titles. The Croods: A New Age is supposed to come out over the Thanksgiving holiday. And December still has heavy hitters like Wonder Woman 1984, Death on the Nile, Free Guy, and Coming 2 America. 

The bottom line – who knows? Everything is tentative in these uncertain days. Streaming options will continue to increase. I wouldn’t be surprised if Tenet is available for a high price on such services in short order. For 007 fans and those awaiting Dune, there’s more time to anticipate.

2020 Oscar Predictions: October 1st Edition

As October begins, my weekly Oscar predictions get a major expansion as I am now including all categories covering feature length films! Additionally, I’m dwindling the listed prospects in all the top races. For Best Picture, it goes from 25 to 15. The directing, acting, and screenplay contests drop from 15 to 10. This is why you’ll see so many movies dropping out of contention.

Wes Anderson’s The French Dispatch is rumored to be moving from the 2020 window. While this has yet to be confirmed, I have taken it out of the running at this time. Obviously once its release date is announced, I’ll adjust accordingly.

For the tech races and Animated Feature, International Film, and Documentary Feature – I’ve definitely learned that these estimates will be fluid over the next months. This is just a first glimpse at where my head’s at.

As for developments in the significant categories:

  • Lee Isaac Chung’s Minari makes it debut in my nine predicted Picture nominees and that takes out Pixar’s Soul (which is listed #1 in Animated Feature). The directing players remain the same.
  • I have switched Kingsley Ben-Adir’s performance in One Night in Miami from Supporting Actor to lead. He makes the five and that drops Tom Hanks in News of the World. The Best Actress estimates remain.
  • The Supporting Actress nominees also stay intact. However, Ben-Adir’s shift in Supporting Actor means I am now including three actors from The Trial of the Chicago 7: Mark Rylance, Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, and Sacha Baron Cohen. I’m not at all confident this happens, but it’s where I am at the moment. I now have Leslie Odom, Jr. as the representative from One Night in Miami in the race. Lakeith Stanfield moves away from the top five.
  • There are no changes in the screenplay predictions.

As a bonus, I am including how many nominees from my initial full predictions in 2019 ended up getting nominated in each race to give you an idea of historical accuracy. I will note that I didn’t expand my estimates last year until October 17th, so I did have a bit more to go on.

And with all that, let’s get to it!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mank (Previous Ranking: 1)

2. Nomadland (PR: 2)

3. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 3)

4. News of the World (PR: 4)

5. One Night in Miami (PR: 5)

6. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 8)

7. The Father (PR: 6)

8. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 7)

9. Minari (PR: 12)

Other Possibilities:

10. Soul (PR: 9)

11. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 11)

12. Dune (PR: 10)

13. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 13)

14. Ammonite (PR: 16)

15. The White Tiger (PR: 14)

2019 OCTOBER ACCURACY: 8/9

Dropped Out:

The French Dispatch

Stillwater

The United States vs. Billie Holiday

Respect

The Midnight Sky

Annette

Next Goal Wins

Red, White and Water

C’Mon C’Mon

French Exit 

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. David Fincher, Mank (PR: 1)

2. Chloe Zhao, Nomadland (PR: 2)

3. Paul Greengrass, News of the World (PR: 3)

4. Regina King, One Night in Miami (PR: 5)

5. Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Florian Zeller, The Father (PR: 6)

7. George C. Wolfe, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 8)

8. Lee Isaac Chung, Minari (PR: 11)

9. Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 7)

10. Denis Villeneuve, Dune (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Shaka King, Judas and the Black Messiah

Ron Howard, Hillbilly Elegy 

Wes Anderson, The French Dispatch

Ramin Bahrani, The White Tiger

Tom McCarthy, Stillwater

2019 OCTOBER ACCURACY: 4/5

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 2)

2. Frances McDormand, Nomadland (PR: 1)

3. Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 3)

4. Kate Winslet, Ammonite (PR: 4)

5. Michele Pfeiffer, French Exit (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 6)

7. Jennifer Hudson, Respect (PR: 7)

8. Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 8)

9. Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman (PR: 11)

10. Meryl Streep, The Prom (PR: 9)

2019 OCTOBER ACCURACY: 4/5

Dropped Out:

Sophia Loren, The Life Ahead

Jennifer Lawrence, Red, White and Water

Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye

Rachel Brosnahan, I’m Your Woman

Marion Cotillard, Annette

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Anthony Hopkins, The Father (PR: 1)

2. Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods (PR 2)

3. Gary Oldman, Mank (PR: 3)

4. Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami (PR: Not Ranked)

5. Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Tom Hanks, News of the World (PR: 5)

7. Steven Yeun, Minari (PR: 8)

8. Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal (PR: 12)

9. Matt Damon, Stillwater (PR: 6)

10. Joaquin Phoenix, C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 7)

2019 OCTOBER ACCURACY: 4/5

Dropped Out:

Benedict Cumberbatch, The Courier

Michael Fassbender, Next Goal Wins

Adam Driver, Annette

Trevante Rhodes, The United States vs. Billie Holiday

Andrew Garfield, The Eyes of Tammy Faye

Ben Affleck, The Way Back

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 1)

2. Olivia Colman, The Father (PR: 2)

3. Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite (PR: 3)

4. Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 5)

5. Helena Zengel, News of the World (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Amanda Seyfried, Mank (PR: 6)

7. Audra McDonald, Respect (PR: 7)

8. Lily Collins, Mank (PR: 14)

9. Natasha Lyonne, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 9)

10. Abigail Breslin, Stillwater (PR: 8)

2019 OCTOBER ACCURACY: 2/5

Dropped Out:

Jayne Houdyshell, The Humans

Mary J. Blige, Respect

Toni Collette, I’m Thinking of Ending Things

Gaby Hoffman, C’Mon C’Mon

Kristin Scott Thomas, Rebecca

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)

2. Mark Rylance, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 4)

3. Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami (PR: 7)

4. Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 6)

5. Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Bill Murray, On the Rocks (PR: 8)

7. Lakeith Stanfield, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 5)

8. Tom Pelphrey, Mank (PR: 9)

9. Jonathan Majors, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 12)

10. David Strathairn, Nomadland (PR: 11)

2019 OCTOBER ACCURACY: 4/5

Dropped Out:

Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami (moved to Lead Actor)

Frank Langella, The Trial of the Chicago 7

Richard Jenkins, The Humans

Tom Burke, Mank

Charles Dance, Mank 

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mank (PR: 1)

2. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 2)

3. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)

4. Soul (PR: 3)

5. Minari (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. On the Rocks (PR: 11)

7. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 6)

8. Ammonite (PR: 9)

9. C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 10)

10. Stillwater (PR: 8)

2019 OCTOBER ACCURACY: 3/5

Dropped Out:

The French Dispatch

Respect

Pieces of a Woman

Red, White and Water

Never Rarely Sometimes Always 

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Nomadland (PR: 1)

2. One Night in Miami (PR: 2)

3. The Father (PR: 3)

4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 5)

5. News of the World (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 6)

7. Dune (PR: 8)

8. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 7)

9. I’m Thinking of Ending Things (PR: 9)

10. French Exit (PR: 10)

2019 OCTOBER ACCURACY: 4/5

Dropped Out:

The White Tiger

Next Goal Wins

The Humans

First Cow

The Midnight Sky

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Soul 

2. Over the Moon

3. Wolfwalkers

4. Onward

5. The Croods: A New Age

Other Possibilities:

6. The Willoughbys

7. Connected

8. Rumble

9. Trolls World Tour

10. Ride Your Wave

2019 OCTOBER ACCURACY: 3/5

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Crip Camp

2. Boys State

3. All In: The Fight for Democracy

4. Dick Johnson is Dead

5. Spaceship Earth

Other Possibilities:

6. John Lewis: Good Trouble

7. MLK/FBI

8. The Truffle Hunters

9. Miss Americana

10. On the Record

2019 OCTOBER ACCURACY: 2/5

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Quo Vadis, Aida?

2. The Disciple

3. Night of the Kings

4. Ema

5. Atlantis

Other Possibilities:

6. Another Round

7. The Life Ahead

8. Young Ahmed

9. A Sun

10. Memory House 

2019 OCTOBER ACCURACY: 3/5

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mank

2. Nomadland

3. News of the World

4. Dune

5. The Trial of the Chicago 7

Other Possibilities:

6. Da 5 Bloods

7. One Night in Miami

8. Judas and the Black Messiah

9. Ammonite

10. Tenet

2019 OCTOBER ACCURACY: 4/5

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mank 

2. The Trial of the Chicago 7

3. Emma

4. Dune

5. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

Other Possibilities:

6. Coming 2 America

7. Ammonite

8. News of the World

9. Mulan

10. The Personal History of David Copperfield

2019 OCTOBER ACCURACY: 2/5

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Trial of the Chicago 7

2. Mank

3. News of the World

4. Nomadland

5. Dune

Other Possibilities:

6. Da 5 Bloods

7. One Night in Miami

8. Tenet

9. Judas and the Black Messiah

10. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

2019 OCTOBER ACCURACY: 3/5

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mank

2. Dune

3. Birds of Prey

4. Coming 2 America

5. Mulan

Other Possibilities:

6. The Trial of the Chicago 7

7. No Time to Die

8. Emma

9. Wonder Woman 1984

10. Ammonite

2019 OCTOBER ACCURACY: 2/5

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mank

2. Soul

3. Da 5 Bloods

4. The Trial of the Chicago 7

5. Dune

Other Possibilities:

6. News of the World

7. The Midnight Sky

8. One Night in Miami

9. Over the Moon

10. Tenet

2019 OCTOBER ACCURACY: 4/5

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “No Time to Die” from No Time to Die

2. “Free” from The One and Only Ivan

3. “Only the Young” from Miss Americana

4. “Hear My Voice” from The Trial of the Chicago 7

5. “Speak Now” from One Night in Miami

Other Possibilities:

6. “Husavik” from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga

7. “Rocket to the Moon” from Over the Moon

8. “Carried Me with You” from Onward

9. “Never Break” from Giving Voice

10. “See What You’ve Done” from Belly of the Beast

2019 OCTOBER ACCURACY: 3/5

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mank

2. Dune

3. News of the World

4. Mulan

5. The Trial of the Chicago 7

Other Possibilities:

6. Ammonite

7. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

8. One Night in Miami

9. Tenet

10. Judas and the Black Messiah

2019 OCTOBER ACCURACY: 4/5

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Tenet

2. Dune

3. Soul

4. Sound of Metal

5. Respect

Other Possibilities:

6. The Invisible Man

7. News of the World

8. No Time to Die

9. The Trial of the Chicago 7

10. Wonder Woman 1984

2019 OCTOBER ACCURACY: N/A – CATEGORY WAS SPLIT BETWEEN SOUND EDITING & SOUND MIXING

 

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune

2. Tenet

3. Greyhound

4. Wonder Woman 1984

5. The Invisible Man

Other Possibilities:

6. Mulan

7. The Call of the Wild

8. No Time to Die

9. Free Guy

10. Birds of Prey

2019 OCTOBER ACCURACY: 4/5

And that gives us our first breakdown of how many nominations I believe we will see for each picture:

12 Nominations

The Trial of the Chicago 7

10 Nominations

Mank

8 Nominations

Dune

7 Nominations

News of the World

6 Nominations

Nomadland, One Night in Miami

5 Nominations

Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

4 Nominations

Da 5 Bloods, The Father, Soul

2 Nominations

Ammonite, Minari, Mulan, Pieces of a Woman, Tenet

1 Nomination

All In: The Fight for Democracy, Atlantis, Birds of Prey, Boys State, Coming 2 America, Crip Camp, The Croods: A New Age, Dick Johnson is Dead, The Disciple, Ema, Emma, French Exit, Greyhound, Hillbilly Elegy, The Invisible Man, Judas and the Black Messiah, Miss Americana, Night of the Kings, No Time to Die, The One and Only Ivan, Onward, Over the Moon, Quo Vadis, Aida?, Respect, Sound of Metal, Spaceship Earth, Wolfwalkers, Wonder Woman 1984

Back at it next week, folks!

2020 Oscar Predictions: September 3rd Edition

We have arrived at Week #2 for my Oscar predictions in the eight major categories. I do so as the Venice Film Festival has kicked off with Telluride and Toronto slated to virtually get underway in the coming days. That means quite a few Oscar Watch posts will be up in short order, including for several of the features predicted below.

Since last Thursday, I’ve written only two Watch entries. Mulan isn’t likely to be a factor in any of the big races, but it could definitely contend for some technical categories. The forthcoming horror pic Antebellum didn’t impress critics and won’t be mentioned again here. If you would like to peruse those posts, you can do so here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2020/09/03/oscar-watch-mulan/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2020/08/31/oscar-watch-antebellum/

When I wrote my initial guesstimates one week ago, it was on the following day that movie lovers across the globe were hit with tragic news. The loss of Chadwick Boseman to colon cancer has shocked and saddened all of us. Despite his acclaimed performances in 42, Get On Up, and his iconic work as Black Panther, Mr. Boseman has yet to receive a nomination from the Academy. Last Thursday, I already had him listed at #2 in Supporting Actor for the upcoming Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom. He is now listed first as is his costar Viola Davis in Best Actress.

Here are some other developments of note:

  • I am still higher on Spike Lee’s Da 5 Bloods (which also featured Boseman) than some other prognosticators. I have it listed for inclusion in Best Picture, Actor (Delroy Lindo), and Original Screenplay. However, its numbers have fallen a bit and I am taking Spike Lee out of my Director five.
  • My estimated eight Best Picture nominees has remained intact with some shifting in the rankings.
  • Aaron Sorkin (The Trial of the Chicago 7) and Paul Greengrass (News of the World) are in for Director with the aforementioned Spike Lee and Francis Lee (Ammonite) out.
  • The five in Actress has not changed. In Actor, I’ve made the move to take Bill Murray’s performance in On the Rocks and put it in the supporting field. That allows for Tom Hanks (News of the World) to move up. In general, I have soured a bit on Rocks. You’ll see below that its numbers have dropped precipitously.
  • Supporting Actress also includes the same five women and that’s also the case with Supporting Actor.
  • Though I don’t have it in the top five, I’ve corrected French Exit to be listed in Adapted Screenplay as opposed to Original. Soul replaces The French Dispatch in Original for the moment while The Father vaults over West Side Story in Adapted.

As you’ll see, there’s plenty of new faces being mentioned for the first time that didn’t make the list last week and others who have dropped.

Let’s get to it!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mank (Previous Ranking: 1)

2. Nomadland (PR: 2)

3. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 4)

4. Dune (PR: 6)

5. News of the World (PR: 7)

6. Ammonite (PR: 5)

7. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 3)

8. West Side Story (PR: 8)

Other Possibilities:

9. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 16)

10. Soul (PR: 14)

11. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 12)

12. The French Dispatch (PR: 9)

13. One Night in Miami (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 10)

15. Minari (PR: 18)

16. The Father (PR: 17)

17. Annette (PR: 13)

18. Stillwater (PR: 21)

19. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 22)

20. Respect (PR: Not Ranked)

21. Tenet (PR: 15)

22. The Midnight Sky (PR: Not Ranked)

23. Next Goal Wins (PR: 24)

24. French Exit (PR: 25)

25. I’m Thinking of Ending Things (PR: 20)

Dropped Out:

On the Rocks

C’Mon C’Mon

The Eyes of Tammy Faye 

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. David Fincher, Mank (PR: 1)

2. Chloe Zhao, Nomadland (PR: 2)

3. Denis Villeneuve, Dune (PR: 4)

4. Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 6)

5. Paul Greengrass, News of the World (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

6. Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 3)

7. Francis Lee, Ammonite (PR: 5)

8. Steven Spielberg, West Side Story (PR: 8)

9. Wes Anderson, The French Dispatch (PR: 9)

10. Regina King, One Night in Miami (PR: Not Ranked)

11. George C. Wolfe, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

12. Ron Howard, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 11)

13. Shaka King, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 12)

14. Florian Zeller, The Father (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Christopher Nolan, Tenet (PR: 13)

Dropped Out:

Sofia Coppola, On the Rocks

Leos Carax, Annette

Charlie Kaufman, I’m Thinking of Ending Things 

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 2)

2. Frances McDormand, Nomadland (PR: 1)

3. Kate Winslet, Ammonite (PR: 3)

4. Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit (PR: 4)

5. Jennifer Hudson, Respect (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 6)

7. Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman (PR: 14)

8. Rachel Zegler, West Side Story (PR: 7)

9. Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 11)

10. Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 8)

11. Marion Cotillard, Annette

12. Julianne Moore, The Glorias (PR: 9)

13. Elisabeth Moss, Shirley (PR: 15)

14. Jessie Buckley, I’m Thinking of Ending Things (PR: 13)

15. Sophia Loren, The Life Ahead (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Rashida Jones, On the Rocks 

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 1)

2. Anthony Hopkins, The Father (PR: 3)

3. Gary Oldman, Mank (PR: 2)

4. Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 4)

5. Tom Hanks, News of the World (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Eddie Redmayne, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Joaquin Phoenix, C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 7)

8. Matt Damon, Stillwater (PR: 13)

9. Adam Driver, Annette (PR: 8)

10. Steven Yeun, Minari (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Michael Fassbender, Next Goal Wins (PR: 12)

12. Andrew Garfield, The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 10)

13. Trevante Rhodes, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 14)

14. Ansel Elgort, West Side Story (PR: 9)

15. Jesse Plemons, I’m Thinking of Ending Things (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Bill Murray, On the Rocks (moved to Supporting Actor)

Timothee Chalamet, Dune

Ben Affleck, The Way Back 

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite (PR: 1)

2. Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 2)

3. Olivia Colman, The Father (PR: 3)

4. Helena Zengel, News of the World (PR: 5)

5. Ariana DeBose, West Side Story (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Amanda Seyfried, Mank (PR: 7)

7. Meryl Streep, The Prom (PR: 14)

8. Toni Collette, I’m Thinking of Ending Things (PR: 6)

9. Abigail Breslin, Stillwater (PR: 9)

10. Natasha Lyonne, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Audra McDonald, Respect (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Jayne Houdyshell, The Humans (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Debra Winger, Kajillionaire (PR: 8)

14. Mary J. Blige, Respect (PR: 11)

15. Kristin Scott Thomas, Rebecca (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Gaby Hoffman, C’Mon C’Mon

Rebecca Ferguson, Dune

Nicole Kidman, The Prom

Elisabeth Moss, Next Goal Wins

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 2)

2. David Strathairn, Nomadland (PR: 1)

3. Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 3)

4. Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 5)

5. Lakeith Stanfield, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Tom Pelphrey, Mank (PR: 7)

7. Bill Murray, On the Rocks (PR: Not Ranked – moved from Best Actor)

8. Tom Burke, Mank (PR: 6)

9, Mark Rylance, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 12)

10. Jeremy Strong, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Richard Jenkins, The Humans (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Lucas Hedges, French Exit (PR: 9)

14. Jonathan Majors, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 10)

15. David Alvarez, West Side Story (PR: 8)

Dropped Out:

Jesse Plemons, Judas and the Black Messiah

Clarke Peters, Da 5 Bloods

Oscar Isaac, Dune

Forest Whitaker, Respect 

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mank (PR: 1)

2. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 2)

3. Ammonite (PR: 4)

4. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 3)

5. Soul (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. The French Dispatch (PR: 5)

7. Minari (PR: 10)

8. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 8)

9. Stillwater (PR: 11)

10. Promising Young Woman (PR: 15)

11. Annette (PR: 13)

12. C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 9)

13. On the Rocks (PR: 7)

14. Red, White, and Water (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Tenet (PR: 14)

Dropped Out:

French Exit (moved to Adapted Screenplay)

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Nomadland (PR: 1)

2. News of the World (PR: 3)

3. Dune (PR: 2)

4. The Father (PR: 6)

5. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 7)

7. I’m Thinking of Ending Things (PR: 8)

8. West Side Story (PR: 4)

9. One Night in Miami (PR: 13)

10. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 10)

11. French Exit (PR: Not Ranked – moved from Original Screenplay)

12. Next Goal Wins (PR: 9)

13. The Humans (PR: Not Ranked)

14. The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 11)

15. Respect (PR: 14)

Dropped Out:

The White Tiger

The Midnight Sky 

I’ll be back at it with updated predictions next Thursday!

Oscar Watch: Mulan

After its theatrical release was scrapped due to the COVID-19 pandemic, Disney’s live-action version of their 1998 animated tale Mulan is set to stream on Disney+ beginning tomorrow for a fee of $30. With a reported budget of around $200 million, this is certainly one of the highest profile features to ever (if ever) hit the PVOD circuit.

Over the past decade, the Mouse Factory has made billions of dollars with this sub genre of bringing their well-known drawn properties to a human scale. And there’s already a history of these pics garnering technical nominations at the Oscars.

The review embargo for Mulan lapsed on the eve of its release and reaction thus far is mostly on the positive side. Niki Caro’s remake is generating praise for its action sequences and overall visuals. Some of the reviews are a bit less kind. The Rotten Tomatoes meter is currently 73%. That’s a marked improvement over last year’s Aladdin (57%) and The Lion King (52%). Yet it falls short of the highs of The Jungle Book (94%) or Cinderella (84%). It’s actually right in range with 2017’s Beauty and the Beast, which scored 71%.

Let’s take that trip down memory lane for Disney’s output in this genre, shall we? In 2010, Alice in Wonderland won both Art Direction (now Production Design) and Costume Design and was nominated for its Visual Effects. 2014’s Maleficent also received a nod for its costuming and that happened a year later with Cinderella. In 2016, The Jungle Book was victorious for its Visual Effects. Beauty and the Beast received nominations the next year for Production Design and its costumes. Christopher Robin got a Visual Effects nod in 2019. And last year, The Lion King picked up a Visual Effects mention while Maleficent: Mistress of Evil was nominated for Makeup and Hairstyling.

You’ll notice that none of these pictures landed attention in the major categories and I don’t expect that Mulan will change that. When it comes to down the line nominations, I do expect this will contend in Production Design and Costume Design especially. Visual Effects and Makeup and Hairstyling are also possibilities and maybe even Cinematography. And there’s also the matter of Best Original Song. Christina Aguilera, who sang the track “Reflection” over the end credits 22 years ago, has composed some original works here. She recently put out the single “Loyal Brave True” and it certainly could contend.

Bottom line: Mulan is unlikely to be the first live-action Disney remake to compete for the big prizes, but it should carry on the tradition of its technical achievements being noticed. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…

Early 2020 Oscar Predictions: Best Picture

My earliest Oscar prediction posts for the 2020 season cultivates today with the grand prize… Best Picture! And on a more personal note, this particular writeup marks my 3000th entry on this movie blog of mine. Thanks to all the readers over the past few years!

As I have explained in the acting and directing race estimates, this year has been a challenging one for these initial projections. The COVID-19 pandemic has thrown many release dates into uncertainty and that looks to continue for some time. That’s why I’m not yet putting Wes Anderson’s The French Dispatch in the mix, for instance. Additionally, many of the fall festivals that showcase awards hopefuls have been downsized or canceled altogether. That said, the ones that are moving forward will do so in the coming weeks (so expect plenty of Oscar Watch posts in the near future).

Unlike the five other races already discussed, I’m putting 25 contenders in the Picture race (the others had 15). As you may know, the number of nominees in this category can fluctuate between five and ten. The magic number has been 9 for most years, including 2019. On a side note, the Academy has announced that, beginning next year, the number will move to a finite 10. I am currently going with 8 for the volume of 2020 nominees, but that could certainly change as the weeks roll along.

If you missed my aforementioned predictions on the other major competitions, you can find them right here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2020/08/12/early-2020-oscar-predictions-best-director/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2020/08/11/early-2020-oscar-predictions-best-actress/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2020/08/10/early-2020-oscar-predictions-best-actor/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2020/08/09/early-2020-oscar-predictions-best-supporting-actress/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2020/08/09/early-2020-oscar-predictions-best-supporting-actor/

Last year, the initial Best Picture forecast in August yielded six out of the nine eventual nominees. These were the winner Parasite, The Irishman, Little Women, Marriage Story, 1917, and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. In my other possibilities, I identified the three other nominees: Ford v Ferrari, Jojo Rabbit, and Joker.

Finally, a note on how these Oscar prognostications will move forward. Beginning on Thursday, August 27, I will begin weekly columns where I will rank and forecast the six major categories. In October, that weekly column will expand to all categories covering feature films. That will continue all the way through the announcement of nominations next year.

Let’s get at it!

EARLY OSCAR PREDICTIONS: BEST PICTURE

Ammonite

Da 5 Bloods

Dune

Mank

Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

Nomadland

Tenet

The Trial of the Chicago 7

Other Possibilities:

C’Mon C’Mon

The Father

First Cow

French Exit

Hillbilly Elegy

I’m Thinking of Ending Things

Judas and the Black Messiah

The Midnight Sky

Minari

Mulan

News of the World

Next Goal Wins

On the Rocks

Respect

Soul

Stillwater

West Side Story

And that does it, folks! Two weeks from now… the ranked estimates begin…

Early 2020 Oscar Predictions: Best Actress

My big announcement today is the selection of my first candidates for Best Actress in the 2020 Oscar field! If you happened to miss my predictions for the supporting categories and Best Actor, you can find them right here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2020/08/10/early-2020-oscar-predictions-best-actor/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2020/08/09/early-2020-oscar-predictions-best-supporting-actress/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2020/08/09/early-2020-oscar-predictions-best-supporting-actor/

Unlike Best Actor, none of my initial top 5 picks here have seen their pictures screened. As discussed in previous posts, 2020 is a mighty speculative year for these early August estimates. The potential contenders are certainly some heavy hitters and it was, frankly, hard to whittle the list to this quintet. 4 of my 5 choices here are past winners. Both Viola Davis and Jennifer Hudson are Supporting Actress victors for 2016’s Fences and 2006’s Dreamgirls respectively. Frances McDormand is a two-time lead Actress winner for 1996’s Fargo and 2017’s Three Billboards Outside, Missouri. Kate Winslet took this prize in 2008 for The Reader. The only non-winner is Michelle Pfeiffer and she’s been nominated three times. If she makes it here, it would mark her first nod in 28 years since 1992’s Love Field. 

This is in addition to acclaimed actresses such as Amy Adams, Jessica Chastain, and Julianne Moore as possibilities and up and comers like Jessie Buckley, Liu Yifei, and Rachel Zegler. On the opposite end of the spectrum, there’s the silver screen return of cinematic legend Sophia Loren. She last won an Oscar for Two Women some 60 years ago. Elisabeth Moss has two already released pics for which she’s received solid reviews. Of the two, Shirley seems more viable than the horror hit The Invisible Man.

In 2019, my original late summer projections yielded a whopping 4 of the 5 eventual nominees: Cynthia Erivo (Harriet), Scarlett Johansson (Marriage Story), Saoirse Ronan (Little Women), and Charlize Theron (Bombshell). In my ten other possibilities, I also identified eventual trophy recipient Renee Zellweger as Judy. 

Lots of intrigue in this race and here’s the first take:

EARLY OSCAR PREDICTIONS: BEST ACTRESS

Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

Jennifer Hudson, Respect

Frances McDormand, Nomadland

Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit

Kate Winslet, Ammonite 

Other Possibilities: 

Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy

Jessie Buckley, I’m Thinking of Ending Things

Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye

Rashida Jones, On the Rocks 

Sophia Loren, The Life Ahead

Julianne Moore, The Glorias

Elisabeth Moss, Shirley

Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman

Liu Yifei, Mulan 

Rachel Zegler, West Side Story

That completes the acting portions of the early predictions and Best Director is up next! Until then…

Mulan Gets a Plus

Disney surprised a lot of box office commentators like myself to begin the week with major news about Mulan. The live-action adaptation of their 1998 animated feature, directed by Niki Caro, was intended to hit theaters on a worldwide scale on March 27th. This was, of course, just a couple of weeks after the COVID-19 pandemic forced closures of chains across the country.

Since delayed three more times, the Mouse Factory announced this afternoon that the tentpole feature will instead debut on the Disney+ streaming service on September 4. This allows lots of kids and their parents to view it over Labor Day weekend… at a cost of $30. While we have seen numerous pictures go the route of streaming as opposed to theatrical release in the past few months, Mulan is by far the most high profile.

The top brass at Disney made it clear that this is a one-off pattern. There was certainly no further announcement that their Black Widow (delayed from May) would follow suit. The news makes for a fascinating holiday weekend to monitor as Christopher Nolan’s Tenet is currently scheduled for select cities in cinemas at the same time.

Depending on how well Mulan performs on the small screen (and it certainly could), one must wonder what that means for other big pics that were supposed to be released by now. To name a few – there’s No Time to Die, A Quiet Place Part II, Top Gun: Maverick, and Wonder Woman 1984.

It may not change anything, but Disney’s Monday bombshell feels like a potential sign of more unexpected pattens to follow. After all, the idea that Mulan would be a streaming debut would have sounded unfathomable pre-COVID. Time will tell, but those anticipating Mulan won’t have to wait long if they’re willing to fork over a premium price.