Tag: Frances McDormand

99th Academy Awards Predictions: May 6th Edition

My second helping of ranked Oscar predictions for next year’s 99th ceremony can be called the pre-Cannes estimates. That festival in the French Riviera kicks off May 12th and runs through May 23rd. It will be our first look at several potential contenders: Ryusuke Hamaguchi’s All of a Sudden, Pawel Pawlikowski’s Fatherland, Cristian Mungiu’s Fjord, Na Hong-jin’s Hope, James Gray’s Paper Tiger, and The Man I Love from Ira Sachs to name a few. Keep an eye on the blog for my individual posts exploring the viability of the screening pictures.

The Academy made some news of its own by announcing rule changes. The most significant is that actors can be nominated twice in the same category. There’s been recent examples of when this could have resulted in a performer getting two nods. I would say most recently that Sebastian Stan could have benefited. He was nominated in lead Actor for The Apprentice and a double shot was possible via A Different Man. Going back a ways, Kate Winslet won Best Actress in 2008 for The Reader and might have seen her name pop again for Revolutionary Road. In 2006, Kate’s Titanic mate Leonardo DiCaprio was in contention for Blood Diamond. He could have easily landed another shot via The Departed.

In International Feature Film, the criteria has always been that a submitting nation can choose just one entrant for consideration. While that rule holds, the Academy has added another path to get in. If a picture wins a qualifying international festival (such as Cannes, Berlin, Toronto, Sundance, Venice), it is now a contender. This would have helped Anatomy of a Fall in 2023 since France did not choose it as their representative picture, but it emerged victorious for the Palme d’Or at Cannes.

Since my last update in mid-April, Michael opened to gigantic box office and mediocre reviews. While the audience score on Rotten Tomatoes is high, critical griping could cripple its viability at the Oscars. However, I wouldn’t completely rule out the acclaimed work of Jaafar Jackson and Colman Domingo. Best Picture? Probably a bridge too far despite the gaudy numbers.

The Devil Wears Prada 2 also hit multiplexes. While Meryl Streep was a Best Actress nominee 20 years ago for the original, a second at-bat seems like a reach. The sequel could materialize, however, in Costume Design and/or Original Song where Lady Gaga has a track. Those categories won’t be forecasted until a few weeks down the line.

We also learned that Narnia: The Magician’s Nephew from Greta Gerwig will not be out (on Netflix) until 2027. I had it on the outside looking in at #11. It drops from contention this time around.

You can read all the speculation below and my next update will arrive as Cannes concludes!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)

3. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Digger (PR: 5) (E)

5. Fjord (PR: 6) (E)

6. No One Cares (PR: 6) (E)

7. Fatherland (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Dune: Part Three (PR: 10) (+2)

9. The Social Reckoning (PR: 9) (E)

10. All of a Sudden (PR: 7) (-3)

Other Possibilities:

11. Hope (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Cry to Heaven (PR: 16) (+4)

13. A Place in Hell (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Paper Tiger (PR: 21) (+7)

15. Werwulf (PR: 18) (+3)

16. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 23) (+7)

17. Josephine (PR: 17) (E)

18. Saturn Return (PR: 22) (+4)

19. The Entertainment System is Down (PR: 14) (-5)

20. Jack of Spades (PR: 24) (+4)

21. Being Heumann (PR: 15) (-6)

22. A Long Winter (PR: 13) (-9)

23. Behemoth! (PR: 25) (+2)

24. Michael (PR: 20) (-4)

25. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 19) (-6)

Dropped Out:

Narnia: The Magician’s Nephew

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Alejandro Gonzalez Iñárritu, Digger (PR: 2) (E)

3. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Cristian Mingiu, Fjord (PR: 3) (+1)

5. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Pawel Pawlikowski, Fatherland (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Jesse Eisenberg, No One Cares (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Na Hong-jin, Hope (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Tom Ford, Cry to Heaven (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Aaron Sorkin, The Social Reckoning (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Robert Eggers, Werwulf (PR: 14) (+1)

14. James Gray, Paper Tiger (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Greg Kwedar, Saturn Return (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Greta Gerwig, Narnia: The Magician’s Nephew

Ruben Östlund, The Entertainment System is Down

David Fincher, The Adventures of Cliff Booth

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Renate Reinsve, Fjord (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sandra Hüller, Fatherland (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Julianne Moore, No One Cares (PR: 3) (E)

4. Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Michelle Williams, A Place in Hell (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden (PR: 6) (E)

7. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Sandra Hüller, Rose (PR: 11) (+3)

9. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Sophie Okonedo, Clarissa (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Mason Reeves, Josephine (PR: 8) (-3)

12. Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 14) (+2)

13. Rachel Brosnahan, Saturn Return (PR: 13) (E)

14. Penélope Cruz, Bunker (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Lily Gladstone, The Memory Police (PR: 12) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Amy Adams, At the Sea

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Tom Cruise, Digger (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sebastian Stan, Fjord (PR: 4) (+1)

4. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Hanns Zischler, Fatherland (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Matt Damon, The Odyssey (PR: 6) (E)

7. Dominic Sessa, Tony (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Jaafar Jackson, Michael (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Nicholas Hoult, Cry to Heaven (PR: 9) (E)

10. John Turturro, The Only Living Pickpocket in New York (PR: 15) (+5)

11. Jeremy Allen White, The Social Reckoning (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Adam Driver, Paper Tiger (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Josh O’Connor, Jack of Spades (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Rami Malek, The Man I Love (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Three (PR: 11) (-4)

Dropped Out:

Robert Aramayo, I Swear

Pedro Pascal, Behemoth!

Brad Pitt, The Adventures of Cliff Booth

Charles Melton, Saturn Return

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mariana di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Sandra Hüller, Digger (PR: 6) (+4)

3. Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (-2)

4. Halle Bailey, No One Cares (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Daisy Edgar-Jones, A Place in Hell (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Tao Okamato, All of a Sudden (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 8) (E)

9. Scarlett Johannson, Paper Tiger (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Lesley Manville, Jack of Spades (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Esmé Creed-Miles, Sense and Sensibility (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Kirsten Dunst, The Entertainment System is Down (PR: 12) (E)

13. Caitriona Balfe, A Long Winter (PR: 9) (-4)

14. Penélope Cruz, The Invite (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Gemma Chan, Josephine (PR: 13) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Wunmi Mosaku, The Social Reckoning

Frances McDormand, Jack of Spades

Elizabeth Debicki, The Adventures of Cliff Booth

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Paul Giamatti, No One Cares (PR: 1) (E)

2. John Goodman, Digger (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Robert Pattinson, The Odyssey (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning (PR: 6) (-1)

7. Colman Domingo, Michael (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Andrew Scott, A Place in Hell (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Tom Holland, The Odyssey (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Jesse Plemons, Digger (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Channing Tatum, Josephine (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Mark Ruffalo, Being Heumann (PR: 9) (-3)

13. David Oyelowo, Clarissa (PR: 13) (E)

14. Antonio Banderas, Tony (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Cry to Heaven (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Daniel Brühl, The Entertainment System is Down

Riz Ahmed, Digger

    99th Academy Awards Predictions: April 19th Edition

    Barely a month beyond the 98th edition of the Academy Awards, we have arrived at my first ranked predictions for the 99th ceremony. We begin with six major categories – Best Picture, Director, and the four acting derbies.

    I gave you my first ranked glimpses for the previous telecast around the same time last year in these same races. How did that impossibly early forecast turn out? I correctly called four of the eventual ten BP nominees with Hamnet, Marty Supreme, Sentimental Value, and Sinners. Winner One Battle After Another as well as Bugonia, F1, and Frankenstein were listed in Other Possibilities. So 80% of the BP contenders were identified with The Secret Agent and Train Dreams not being mentioned in April 2025.

    In Best Director, three of the five filmmakers were predicted: Ryan Coogler (Sinners), Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme), and Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value). Statue recipient Paul Thomas Anderson from One Battle and Chloé Zhao (Hamnet) were in Other Possibilities.

    As for Best Actress, Jessie Buckley (Hamnet) swept the season and was in my predicted quintet. So was Sentimental Value‘s Renate Reinsve while Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You) and Emma Stone (Bugonia) were in Other Possibilities. Only Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue) wasn’t listed. In Best Actor, Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme) was in my quintet. Three others – winner Michael B. Jordan (Sinners), Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another), and Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon) were Other Possibilities with Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent) as the sole thespian not identified.

    My projected Supporting Actress five rightly named Teyana Taylor (One Battle) with Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value) as a possibility. Fanning’s costar Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Wumni Mosaku (Sinners), and the victorious Amy Madigan (Weapons) were not found among my possibilities. In Supporting Actor, Stellan Skarsgård from Value was in my five with winner Sean Penn (One Battle) and Delroy Lindo (Sinners) as possibilities. Battle‘s Benicio del Toro and Frankenstein‘s Jacob Elordi were not to be found yet.

    Let’s get some caveats out of the way. Some of the performers listed in lead will end up in supporting and vice versa. As an example, I figured Paul Mescal (Hamnet) would go lead for that film last year, but he was slotted in supporting. He ended up not being nominated but likely came close. For instance in this year’s listings, I don’t know if Sam Rockwell will be lead or supporting for Wild Horse Nine but my hunch says the latter at press time. The distributor will eventually clear that up.

    We will see pictures push to 2027. When I did my initial projections a year ago for 2025, Michael and The Rivals of Amziah King were thought to be releases for that calendar frame. Both are being put out in ’26. I have Michael still as a potential nominee in some competitions. Not so at this time for Rivals.

    And now the most important forewarning. Some movies you find below will turn out to be non-contenders. My inaugural look at the 98th Oscars listed Luca Guadagnino’s After the Hunt at #1 in Best Picture, Director, Actress (Julia Roberts), #4 in Supporting Actress (Ayo Edebiri), and #2 in Supporting Actor (Andrew Garfield). After its Venice festival premiere, the mixed to negative reaction drastically changed its narrative. It ended up with zero nominations. My April 2025 #1’s in the supporting fields – Ariana Grande (Wicked: For Good) and Adam Sandler (Jay Kelly) – did not make final cut either.

    So take this speculation as what it is – speculative. The picture and Best Picture will become clearer in time. That said, a reminder that 80% of the BP nominees were mentioned a year ago in addition to 100% of the directors and 80% of the lead acting hopefuls could be found in the initial post. On the flip side, nearly all of my acting picks for a nomination are coming from projected BP nominees and the percentage probably won’t be quite that high.

    When Sinners came out last year, it was a box office juggernaut with widespread critical acclaim. Yet I wondered whether the spring release could mean it would fall by the wayside months down the line. That’s why I named it in Other Possibilities for Picture, Director, Actor, and Supporting Actor. What happened months down the line? A record-setting 16 nominations with Jordan winning Actor. I won’t make the same mistake with Project Hail Mary. It has been out for weeks and already looks like a strong contender in Picture, Director, Actor, and possibly Supporting Actress. Another note – it’s not often (or maybe ever) you see a performer mentioned four times. That’s the case at the moment with the busy Sandra Hüller who is a legit threat twice in lead Actress and supporting.

    You can expect these posts to hit the blog every couple of weeks until it becomes weekly. This should occur when festival season goes into overdrive in last summer/early fall.

    BEST PICTURE

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. The Odyssey

    2. Project Hail Mary

    3. Wild Horse Nine

    4. Digger

    5. Fjord

    6. No One Cares

    7. All of a Sudden

    8. Fatherland

    9. The Social Reckoning

    10. Dune: Part Three

    Other Possibilities:

    11. Narnia: The Magican’s Nephew

    12. A Place in Hell

    13. A Long Winter

    14. The Entertainment System is Down

    15. Being Heumann

    16. Cry to Heaven

    17. Josephine

    18. Werwulf

    19. The Adventures of Cliff Booth

    20. Michael

    21. Paper Tiger

    22. Saturn Return

    23. Sense and Sensibility

    24. Jack of Spades

    25. Behemoth!

    BEST DIRECTOR

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey

    2. Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Digger

    3. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary

    4. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine

    5. Cristian Mingiu, Fjord

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden

    7. Pawel Pawlikowski, Fatherland

    8. Jesse Eisenberg, No One Cares

    9. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three

    10. Greta Gerwig, Narnia: The Magician’s Nephew

    11. Ruben Östlund, The Entertainment System is Down

    12. Tom Ford, Cry to Heaven

    13. Aaron Sorkin, The Social Reckoning

    14. Robert Eggers, Werwulf

    15. David Fincher, The Adventures of Cliff Booth

    BEST ACTRESS

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Renate Reinsve, Fjord

    2. Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning

    3. Julianne Moore, No One Cares

    4. Sandra Hüller, Fatherland

    5. Michelle Williams, A Place in Hell

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden

    7. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann

    8. Mason Reeves, Josephine

    9. Sophie Okenedo, Clarissa

    10. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie

    11. Sandra Hüller, Rose

    12. Lily Gladstone, The Memory Police

    13. Rachel Brosnahan, Saturn Return

    14. Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility

    15. Amy Adams, At the Sea

    BEST ACTOR

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Tom Cruise, Digger

    2. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary

    3. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine

    4. Sebastian Stan, Fjord

    5. Hanns Zischler, Fatherland

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Matt Damon, The Odyssey

    7. Robert Aramayo, I Swear

    8. Dominic Sessa, Tony

    9. Nicholas Hoult, Cry to Heaven

    10. Jafaar Jackson, Michael

    11. Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Three

    12. Pedro Pascal, Behemoth!

    13. Brad Pitt, The Adventures of Cliff Booth

    14. Charles Melton, Saturn Return

    15. John Turturro, The Only Pickpocket Living in New York

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine

    2. Mariana Di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine

    3. Halle Bailey, No One Cares

    4. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey

    5. Tao Okamoto, All of a Sudden

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Sandra Hüller, Digger

    7. Daisy Edgar-Jones, A Place in Hell

    8.. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary

    9. Caitriona Balfe, A Long Winter

    10. Scarlett Johansson, Paper Tiger

    11. Wunmi Mosaku, The Social Reckoning

    12. Kirsten Dunst, The Entertainment System is Down

    13. Gemma Chan, Josephine

    14. Frances McDormand, Jack of Spades

    15. Elizabeth Debicki, The Adventures of Cliff Booth

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Paul Giamatti, No One Cares

    2. John Goodman, Digger

    3. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine

    4. Colman Domingo, Michael

    5. Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine

    7. Andrew Scott, A Place in Hell

    8. Tom Holland, The Odyssey

    9. Mark Ruffalo, Being Heumann

    10. D’Pharaoh Woon-A-Tai, A Long Winter

    11. Jesse Plemons, Digger

    12. Channing Tatum, Josephine

    13. David Oyelowo, Clarissa

    14. Daniel Brühl, The Entertainment System is Down

    15. Riz Ahmed, Digger

    99th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Supporting Actress

    And we are off to the races with my first Oscar predictions for the 99th Academy Awards.

    We are only two weeks removed from the 98th ceremony so let us begin some ridiculously early speculation! These are my inaugural glimpses at the four acting derbies, Director, and Picture. They will unfold on the blog over the next few days. I already posted my take on Supporting Actor and it can be found here:

    99th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Supporting Actor

    We move to Supporting Actress. My super duper early selections in 2025 yielded one eventual nominee in Teyana Taylor for One Battle After Another. In the ten other possibilities, I named Elle Fanning for Sentimental Value. Eventual winner Amy Madigan (Weapons), Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass (Sentimental Value), and Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners) were not identified at that early juncture.

    Let’s get some caveats out of the way… it’s early. Some movies listed are likely to be pushed back or not be awards contenders. Actresses listed here could end up being campaigned in lead actress and vice versa when I get to Best Actress. And there will be movies we’re not even anticipating that will rise up with performances currently not on the radar.

    This initial glance raises the possibility of Meryl Streep getting in for her iconic role as Miranda Priestly in The Devil Wears Prada 2. Same goes for her costar Anne Hathaway in The Odyssey. I have both missing the cut in favor of Sandra Hüller getting a second nomination (and she could be in line for a third in lead Actress) among four first-time contenders.

    Here’s the first snapshot with Best Actor up next!

    TODD’S FIRST OSCAR PREDICTIONS FOR SUPPORTING ACTRESS AT THE 99TH ACADEMY AWARDS

    Halle Bailey, No One Cares

    Mariana di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine

    Claire Foy, Ink

    Sandra Hüller, Digger

    Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine

    Other Possibilities:

    Caitriona Balfe, A Long Winter

    Gemma Chan, Josephine

    Michaela Coel, Mother Mary

    Olivia Colman, Elsinore

    Kirsten Dunst, The Entertainment System is Down

    Daisy Edgar-Jones, A Place in Hell

    Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey

    Scarlett Johansson, Paper Tiger

    Frances McDormand, Jack of Spades

    Meryl Streep, The Devil Wears Prada 2

    Oscar Nominations: The Case of Chloé Zhao for Hamnet

    As we do every year on the blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

    It began with the ten Best Picture contenders and now alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. The BP posts are readily available for your perusing pleasure. The final director for consideration is Chloé Zhao for Hamnet. If you missed my previous posts on the filmmakers in the mix, you can access them here:

    Oscar Nominations: The Case of Paul Thomas Anderson for One Battle After Another
    Oscar Nominations: The Case of Ryan Coogler for Sinners
    Oscar Nominations: The Case of Josh Safdie for Marty Supreme
    Oscar Nominations: The Case of Joachim Trier for Sentimental Value

    Previous Directing Nominations:

    2020: Nomadland (WON)

    The Case for Chloé Zhao:

    For the tearjerking historical drama, she could make history by becoming the first female to win this twice (only two others have taken the gold). Hamnet is the Golden Globe winner for Best Drama. Zhao was nominated everywhere that matters, however…

    The Case Against Chloé Zhao:

    Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another) has taken all notable precursors – Globes, Critics Choice, BAFTA, and the highly predictive DGA. Ryan Coogler (Sinners) has emerged as the competition if Sinners manages a mild BP upset.

    The Verdict:

    Zhao is not going to achieve filmmaking Oscar #2 though she’s likely to have directed another Best Actress winner via Jessie Buckley with Frances McDormand in Nomadland being the first.

    And that concludes for Case Of write-ups for the 98th Academy Awards! FINAL predictions on the winners will be up on the blog in short order…

    Oscar Nominations: The Case of Sean Penn in One Battle After Another

    As we do every year on the blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

    It began with the ten Best Picture contenders and now alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. The BP posts are readily available for your perusing pleasure. The fourth entrant in Best Supporting Actor is Sean Penn as the villainous Colonel Steven J. Lockjaw in Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another. If you missed my posts covering the first three thespians in the race, they can be accessed here:

    Oscar Nominations: The Case of Benicio del Toro in One Battle After Another
    Oscar Nominations: The Case of Jacob Elordi in Frankenstein
    Oscar Nominations: The Case of Delroy Lindo in Sinners

    Previous Acting Nominations:

    1995 – Actor (Dead Man Walking) – lost to Nicolas Cage for Leaving Las Vegas; 1999 – Actor (Sweet and Lowdown) – lost to Kevin Spacey for American Beauty; 2001 – Actor (I Am Sam) – lost to Denzel Washington for Training Day; 2003 – Actor (Mystic River) – WON; 2008 – Actor (Milk) – WON

    The Case for Sean Penn:

    The six-time nominee and two-time winner is peaking at the right time. Penn has taken the previous major precursors via BAFTA and SAG Actor. While he’s been a mainstay at the Oscars, it’s been 17 years between nominations and this is seen as his meatiest role in quite some time. He would entered rarified territory as only the 8th actor to have more than two gold statues joining Katherine Hepburn with four and the following performers with three – Ingrid Bergman, Walter Brennan, Daniel Day-Lewis, Frances McDormand, Jack Nicholson, and Meryl Streep.

    The Case Against Sean Penn:

    As you can see above, it’s no easy task to get a trio of Oscars. He could vote split with his costar Benicio del Toro. The early precursors did not go his way with Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein) taking Critics Choice and the Globes selecting Stellan Skarsgård (Sentimental Value). Unlike some his fellow nominees, he’s not big on campaigning.

    The Verdict:

    Momentum matters. A month ago, Penn looked like a long shot. Now he’s the favorite and hard to bet against.

    My Case Of posts will continue with fourth director for consideration – Joachim Trier for Sentimental Value…

    98th Academy Awards Predictions: November 23rd Edition

    The five Best Picture winners from this decade have all seen at least one of their cast members win an acting Oscar: Frances McDormand was Best Actress for 2020’s Nomadland, Troy Kotsur took Supporting Actor for 2021’s CODA, 2022’s Everything Everywhere All at Once boasted victories in Actress (Michelle Yeoh), Supporting Actress (Jamie Lee Curtis), and Supporting Actor (Ke Huy Quan), Cillian Murphy and Robert Downey Jr. were the lead and supporting actor winners for Oppenheimer in 2023, and Mikey Madison was last year’s Actress recipient for Anora.

    That’s why it felt strange not having any of the thespians from One Battle for Another listed at #1 in my possibilities. I’ve had the acclaimed Paul Thomas Anderson effort on top of my Best Picture projections for several weeks. Yet I’ve had Leonardo DiCaprio (Best Actor), Sean Penn (Supporting Actor), and Teyana Taylor (Supporting Actress) each listed 2nd behind my current frontrunners in those races.

    Excellent arguments can be made for all three to be 1st in their fields. I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised to see at least two Battle ensemble members take gold. Today I am elevating one of them to the top position and that’s Teyana Taylor. She takes the spot with Ariana Grande (Wicked: For Good) slipping to second. Frankly, this is less about Taylor and more about Wicked‘s so-so critical reaction when the embargo lifted on Monday.

    I still have Wicked clinging to a BP nom and Cynthia Erivo managing an Actress nod – though I am less convinced that either will happen. You will see dips in other categories below and it appears unlikely to match the 10 nominations that its predecessor achieved. To be clear, Grande is still a threat to win. She was probably runner-up to Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez) last time and there could be enough goodwill for the Good Witch to prevail.

    In other developments, I am putting two performers in the supporting fields in for the first time! Amy Madigan’s costume inspiring Weapons work makes the quintet in Supporting Actress. This is partly due to confusion as to which Marty Supreme costar (Gwyneth Paltrow or Odessa A’Zion) is more viable. I basically have them canceling each other out to Madigan’s benefit.

    Jacob Elordi’s monstrous performance in Frankenstein is also elevated with Battle‘s Benicio del Toro now on the outside looking in. I nearly dropped Adam Sandler (Jay Kelly) but I hesitate to drop him with his costar George Clooney still in my Actor five.

    You can read all the movement below!

    Best Picture

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. One Battle After Another (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

    2. Hamnet (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Sentimental Value (PR: 5) (E)

    6. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Frankenstein (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Jay Kelly (PR: 10) (+2)

    9. Wicked: For Good (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 9) (-1)

    Other Possibilities:

    11. Bugonia (PR: 11) (E)

    12. The Secret Agent (PR: 12) (E)

    13. Train Dreams (PR: 14) (+1)

    14. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 15) (+1)

    15. No Other Choice (PR: 13) (-2)

    Best Director

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Kieber Mendonça Filho, The Secret Agent (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Clint Bentley, Train Dreams (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice (PR: 9) (-1)

    Jon M. Chu, Wicked: For Good

    Best Actress

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 4) (+1)

    4. Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another (PR: 5) (+1)

    5. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (-2)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue (PR: 9) (E)

    10. Tessa Thompson, Hedda (PR: 10) (E)

    Best Actor

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon (PR: 4) (E)

    5. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams (PR: 8) (+1)

    8. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 7) (-1)

    9. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: 9) (E)

    10. Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone (PR: 10) (E)

    Best Supporting Actress

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (+1)

    2. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (-1)

    3. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Amy Madigan, Weapons (PR: 7) (+2)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (-1)

    7. Odessa A’Zion, Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. Regina Hall, One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners (PR: 10) (+1)

    10. Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 9) (-1)

    Best Supporting Actor

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (+1)

    5. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein (PR: 6) (+1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another (PR: 4) (-2)

    7. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Andrew Scott, Blue Moon (PR: 8) (E)

    9. William H. Macy, Train Dreams (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. Jeremy Strong, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 9) (-1)

    Dropped Out:

    Jonathan Bailey, Wicked: For Good

    Best Original Screenplay

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (+1)

    4. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. The Secret Agent (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Blue Moon (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Is This Thing On? (PR: 9) (+1)

    9. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 10) (+1)

    10. Sorry, Baby (PR: 8) (-2)

    Best Adapted Screenplay

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Hamnet (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Bugonia (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Train Dreams (PR: 5) (+1)

    5. No Other Choice (PR: 4) (-1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Frankenstein (PR: 7) (+1)

    7. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. The Life of Chuck (PR: Not Ranked)

    9. Hedda (PR: 10) (+1)

    10. Nuremberg (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Wicked: For Good

    Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

    Best International Feature Film

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

    2. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 2) (E)

    3. The Secret Agent (PR: 3) (E)

    4. No Other Choice (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Left-Handed Girl (PR: 7) (+2)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. The Voice of Hind Rajab (PR: 5) (-1)

    7. Sirât (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. The President’s Cake (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Sound of Falling (PR: 10) (+1)

    10. The Love That Remains (PR: 9) (-1)

    Best Animated Feature

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Zootopia 2 (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Arco (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Elio (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Scarlet (PR: 6) (E)

    7. In Your Dreams (PR: 8) (+1)

    8. A Magnificent Life (PR: 7) (-1)

    9. Boys Go to Jupiter (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. Lost in Starlight (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Ne Zha 2

    Animal Farm

    Best Documentary Feature

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. The Perfect Neighbor (PR: 1) (E)

    2. 2000 Meters to Andrivka (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Cover-Up (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Put Your Soul on Your Hand and Walk (PR: 5) (+1)

    5. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: 4) (-1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Mr. Nobody Against Putin (PR: 7) (+1)

    7. Seeds (PR: 8) (+1)

    8. The Alabama Solution (PR: 6) (-2)

    9. Dead President Now! (PR: 10) (+1)

    10. Cutting Through Rocks (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    The Tale of Silyan

    Best Casting

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (+1)

    5. Hamnet (PR: 7) (+2)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 4) (-2)

    7. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. Sentimental Value (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Frankenstein (PR: 9) (E)

    10. Rental Family (PR: 10) (E)

    Best Cinematography

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

    2. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Frankenstein (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Train Dreams (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (E)

    7. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Jay Kelly (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 10) (+1)

    10. Bugonia (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    F1

    Best Costume Design

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (+1)

    2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (-1)

    3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 6) (+1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (-1)

    7. One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (+1)

    8. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 6) (-1)

    9. Hedda (PR: 9) (E)

    10. Snow White (PR: 10) (E)

    Best Film Editing

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (+1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. F1 (PR: 7) (+1)

    7. Jay Kelly (PR: 8) (+1)

    8. Wicked: For Good (PR: 5) (-3)

    9. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 10) (+1)

    10. No Other Choice (PR: 9) (-1)

    Best Makeup and Hairstyling

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)

    4. The Smashing Machine (PR: 4) (E)

    5. 28 Years Later (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Wolf Man (PR: 7) (+1)

    7. One Battle After Another (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. Bugonia (PR: 10) (+2)

    9. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 9) (E)

    10. Weapons (PR: 8) (-2)

    Best Original Score

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

    2. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Frankenstein (PR: 6) (E)

    7. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 8) (+1)

    8. Sentimental Value (PR: Not Ranked)

    9. Wicked: For Good (PR: 7) (-2)

    10. Hedda (PR: 10) (E)

    Dropped Out:

    Bugonia

    Best Original Song

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 1) (E)

    2. “I Lied to You” from Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

    3. “The Girl in the Bubble” from Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (E)

    4. “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 4) (E)

    5. “Clothed by the Sun” from The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 6) (+1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. “Train Dreams” from Train Dreams (PR: 7) (+1)

    7. “No Place Like Home” from Wicked: For Good (PR: 5) (-2)

    8. “Last Time (I Seen the Sun)” from Sinners (PR: 9) (+1)

    9. “Highest 2 Lowest” from Highest 2 Lowest (PR: 10) (+1)

    10. “Dream As One” from Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    “Salt Then Sour Then Sweet” from Come See Me in the Good Light

    Best Production Design

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Hamnet (PR: 4) (+1)

    4. Sinners (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (+1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 5) (-1)

    7. One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (E)

    8. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. Bugonia (PR: 9) (-1)

    Dropped Out:

    The Phoenician Scheme

    Best Sound

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 3) (+1)

    3. F1 (PR: 2) (-1)

    4. One Battle After Another (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 9) (+2)

    8. Frankenstein (PR: 7) (-1)

    9. Warfare (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. Marty Supreme (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    The Testament of Ann Lee

    Best Visual Effects

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Superman (PR: 3) (E)

    4. F1 (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Frankenstein (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 6) (E)

    7. The Fantastic Four: First Steps (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Mickey 17 (PR: 9) (+1)

    9. Tron: Ares (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. How to Train Your Dragon (PR: 10) (E)

    That equates to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:

    12 Nominations

    One Battle After Another, Sinners

    11 Nominations

    Hamnet

    8 Nominations

    Marty Supreme, Sentimental Value, Wicked: For Good

    7 Nominations

    Frankenstein

    6 Nominations

    Jay Kelly

    4 Nominations

    It Was Just an Accident

    3 Nominations

    Avatar: Fire and Ash

    2 Nominations

    F1, KPop Demon Hunters, No Other Choice, The Secret Agent, The Testament of Ann Lee, Train Dreams

    1 Nomination

    28 Years Later, 2000 Meters to Andrivka, Apocalypse in the Tropics, Arco, Blue Moon, Bugonia, Cover-Up, Diane Warren: Relentless, Elio, Kiss of the Spider Woman, Left-Handed Girl, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning, The Perfect Neighbor, Put Your Soul on Your Hand and Walk, The Smashing Machine, Superman, Weapons, Zootopia 2

    98th Academy Awards: The State of the Supporting Actress Race (October Edition)

    Instead of writing a full update on my Oscar predictions this week, I’m doing a deep dive on the six highest profile races: Picture, Director and the four acting derbies. It began with Supporting Actor and continues today with Supporting Actress. If you missed my write-up on Supporting Actor, you can find it here:

    98th Academy Awards: The State of the Supporting Actor Race (October Edition)

    I published my first preview of the Supporting Actress field on April 6th. In that post, I listed my initial predictions for the quintet of hopefuls along with ten other possibilities. At that impossibly early stage of the game, my selections were:

    Ayo Edebiri, After the Hunt

    Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good

    Angelina LookingGlass, The Rivals of Amziah King

    Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme

    Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another

    Let’s dispense with a couple of those names. Angelina LookingGlass’s heralded work in The Rivals of Amziah King has not been scheduled for 2025. At this point, I’m assuming it will come out in 2026.

    After the Hunt has lost its awards luster after a poor commercial and critical reaction. While her costar Julia Roberts may have a long shot chance at making the Actress cut, I don’t see the same for Edebiri.

    The other three names are very much viable. Ariana Grande was nominated last year as Glinda the Good Witch and was probably runner-up to Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez). While For Good has yet to screen, it stands to reason that she could make a return to the lineup. I’ve had her ranked first the whole year and we’ll see if that remains when word-of-mouth comes in.

    Teyana Taylor’s performance dominates the first third of One Battle After Another (arguably the BP frontrunner). That should be enough for her to be the most likely Supporting Actor nominee in the film and we’ll get to Regina Hall shortly.

    Gwyneth Paltrow is not a guaranteed competitor like her costar Timothée Chalamet is in lead actor. However, her work in Marty Supreme is definitely viable in this unformed race. The same could be said for her costar Odessa A’Zion though I’d put Paltrow ahead.

    My 10 other possibilities that I listed back in April are:

    Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine

    Glenn Close, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery

    Laura Dern, Jay Kelly

    Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value

    America Ferrera, The Lost Bus

    Regina Hall, One Battle After Another

    Greta Lee, Late Fame

    Nia Long, Michael

    Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman

    Emily Watson, Hamnet

    Let’s start with Regina Hall. When it was announced that Chase Infiniti would compete in lead Actress for Battle, it opened the door for Hall. I maintain that she’s behind her costar Taylor. I currently have her on the outside looking in, but wouldn’t be surprised if she hears her name called. In the 21st century, we’ve seen double nominees in this category 10 out of 25 times. The last example was 2022 when Jamie Lee Curtis won for Everything Everywhere All at Once while her cast mate Stephanie Hsu was also up. The other times were as follows:

    2000: Frances McDormand and Kate Hudson, Almost Famous

    2001: Helen Mirren and Maggie Smith, Gosford Park

    2002: Catherine Zeta-Jones (winner) and Queen Latifah, Chicago

    2006: Adriana Barraza and Rinko Kikuchi, Babel

    2008: Amy Adams and Viola Davis, Doubt

    2009: Vera Farmiga and Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air

    2010: Melissa Leo (winner) and Amy Adams, The Fighter

    2011: Octavia Spencer (winner) and Jessica Chastain, The Help

    2018: Emma Stone and Rachel Weisz, The Favourite

    Another possibility of two nominees from the same pictures lies with Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value) and her costar Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass. The former seems marginally more likely but Lilleass is absolutely a threat to make the quintet.

    A third possibility of two actresses from one feature is Wunmi Mosaku and Hailee Steinfeld from Sinners. That’s a more remote possibility and the film would really have to over perform for either to get in.

    Back to those 10 other possibilities. Michael was pushed to 2026 so there goes Nia Long. Laura Dern, America Ferrera, Greta Lee and Emily Watson are all long shots at best after their movies screened. For Dern and Watson, they could see some of their costars nominated.

    Emily Blunt could factor in if she manages SAG or Critics Choice or a Globe nod. Yet The Smashing Machine was a major box office flop and that doesn’t help. The same logic applies to Jennifer Lopez for Kiss of the Spider Woman.

    Glenn Close is arguably considered the best thespian who hasn’t won an Oscar despite eight attempts. That could help her cause in Rian Johnon’s latest murder mystery, but none of the actors from Knives Out and Glass Onion made it despite respective buzz for Ana de Armas and Janelle Monae.

    One name not on my radar in April was Amy Madigan in Weapons. The summer sleeper gave the veteran actress an unforgettably creepy role that should inspire many a Halloween costume next week. I’m starting to really think she could find herself in the quintet.

    So there you have it, readers! I would say Grande, Taylor, Fanning, Lilleass, Madigan, Paltrow and Hall are the seven likeliest contestants with potential surprises including Close, Lopez, Blunt and Mosaku. I will zone in on Best Actor in the next write-up!

    Wolfs Review

    Despite their effortless chemistry, George Clooney and Brad Pitt have yet to find their winning vehicle. I know many of you are now saying what about Ocean’s Eleven?!? Or Thirteen?… though probably not that Jan Brady of a franchise entry Twelve. I found the whole trio a little disappointing actually. The finest Clooney/Pitt collaboration is easily Burn After Reading from the Coen Brothers. However, the duo share mere seconds onscreen together. They are violently hilarious ones.

    Wolfs is not funny or action packed enough. It encounters chop simply attempting to coast on the charms of its headliners. They play roles that might only exist in the movies – fixers. Well at least there’s a lot more of them on the silver screen like hitmen. Clooney is known only as Margaret’s Man in the credits. Margaret (Amy Ryan) is running for district attorney when she picks up a much younger man known as Kid (Austin Abrams) at a hotel. Their planned one night stand folds when Kid collapses and is presumed dead. VIPs like Margaret get a special phone number to clean up these messes and Clooney is dispatched to fix it.

    So is Pitt and he’s known as Pam’s Man. Pam (voiced by Frances McDormand) runs the hotel and Pitt is their in-house problem solver. Two men whose survival hinges on working solo is disrupted when they both report for duty. Margaret goes back to campaigning as Ryan’s participation is a glorified cameo. Kid, it turns out, is not DOA as the trio must deal with bricks of heroin, Albanian gangsters, safari themed hotel rooms and back problems.

    Written and directed by Jon Watts (whose become best known for the three Tom Holland Spider-Man flicks), Wolfs is not afraid to point out that its hunky leads are getting up in years. We’ve certainly seen the aging criminal story before and this struggles to find any new angles.

    There’s limited pleasures. The Kid flirts with being a delightfully bizarre character here and there. I did appreciate how you’re not sure for awhile whether he’s smarter than he lets on or truly as dumb as Clooney and Pitt suspect. Or for that matter, if he’s mortal. No one makes faces of befuddled bemusement better than Pitt.

    The leading men, though, still haven’t made their Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid or The Sting no matter how hard Ocean’s and Wolfs try. Finally, there’s the matter of cinematic “fixers”. My favorite is Harvey Keitel in Pulp Fiction. He basically showed up to tell Samuel L. Jackson and John Travolta to clean up the car after the latter had accidentally blown Marvin’s head off. There was no real fixing needed and Quentin Tarantino seemed in on the joke. Clooney and Pitt’s rapport doesn’t need a fix, but Wolfs is ripe for plenty of improvement.

    ** (out of four)

    Oscars: The Case of Carey Mulligan in Maestro

    As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

    It began with the ten BP contenders and now it alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the five other big races. Today we arrive at our fourth performer in Best Actress and that’s Carey Mulligan in Maestro. Let’s get to it!

    Previous Oscar Acting Nominations:

    An Education (2009, Actress); Promising Young Woman (2020, Actress)

    The Case for Carey Mulligan:

    After likely coming up just a little short to Frances McDormand (Nomadland) in 2020 for Promising Young Woman, Mulligan has made the cut at key precursors with the Golden Globes, Critics Choice, BAFTA, and SAG. As Leonard Bernstein’s spouse Felicia, she has a number of Oscar clips to choose from alongside costar Bradley Cooper.

    The Case Against Carey Mulligan:

    So do Emma Stone (Poor Things) and Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon) and they’ve taken the hardware in ceremonies that have already occurred.

    The Verdict:

    The third time won’t be the charm for Mulligan.

    My Case Of posts will continue with Cillian Murphy in Oppenheimer…

    Oscars: The Case of Women Talking

    Women Talking is the final Case Of post for the Best Picture nominees at the 95th Academy Awards. Will we be talking about Women gathering Oscars come March 12th? Let’s get into it.

    The Case for Women Talking:

    Sarah Polley’s adaptation of the 2018 Miriam Toews novel generated awards buzz out of the gate when it premiered at Toronto. At the Critics Choice Awards, it had a respectable showing with six mentions including BP and Director with a victory in Adapted Screenplay.

    The Case Against Women Talking:

    There’s a lot. For starters, its total of two nominations is the lowest of the candidates (it’s rare for a BP contender to have only one other nom). Women was ignored in Director, Original Score, and for any of its performances and it was once thought to be in contention for all. BAFTA totally ignored it. The Golden Globes only put it up in two races (Screenplay and Score) and it lost both. Its SAG count is one category. That was in Ensemble with individual players like Jessie Buckley, Claire Foy, and Ben Whishaw left out. Box office grosses have been subpar.

    Other Nominations:

    Adapted Screenplay

    The Verdict:

    Women Talking does stand a chance of becoming the Adapted Screenplay recipient. Perhaps this can cling to the hope that CODA took BP last year and it tied for the least numbers of nominations among the ten. Realistically there is just about zero chance of this becoming Best Picture.

    While my Case Of posts for BP have concluded, I will now move to the filmmakers and thespians in Director and the four acting derbies. That will begin with the Daniels and their direction of Everything Everywhere All at Once!

    If you missed my Case Of posts for the other BP nominees, you can access them here:

    Oscars: The Case of All Quiet on the Western Front
    Oscars – The Case of Avatar: The Way of Water
    Oscars: The Case of The Banshees of Inisherin
    Oscars: The Case of Elvis
    Oscars: The Case of Everything Everywhere All at Once
    Oscars: The Case of The Fabelmans
    Oscars: The Case of Tár
    Oscars – The Case of Top Gun: Maverick
    Oscars: The Case of Triangle of Sadness